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February 23, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-45
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Defense Politics Asia has put together a live stream “Super Panel”…
[ Super Panel ] Scott Ritter, HistoryLegends & Sanya Florida – 1 Year of War in Ukraine – DPA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHbUoHq7HZo
From the description:
– Alex from “HistoryLegends” ( @historylegends ), a youtube channel with quarter of a million subscribers, that always provided incredible insights in the war in Ukraine as well as coverage on other issues – while linking everything back to history to further our understanding of what is happening and of history.
…to be on a Super Panel to discuss the war so far, from the macro perspective.
– RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Feb 24 2023 5:54 utc | 301
Looks like the Russians took back Yahidne, so they should have fire control over the road from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut pretty soon and then Bakmut in operational encirclement. How many more Ukrainians is Zelensky willing to put in body bags to keep saying Ukraine holds the town? The season of mud returns soon, so probably no big push until May perhaps and could hinder any progress after Bakhmut falls. The warm winter certainly helped the Ukrainians, as well as the European natural gas supplies.
The way interest rates are headed back up currently there could be a very big financial and economic blow up in the West fairly soon. Would certainly be a contrast between a growing China and Russia and a West dropping like a rock.
Thus the disconnect.
This is also the origin of the “concern troll” name calling, calling for me to get banned from here, etc.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 23 2023 22:48 utc | 200
Wasn’t it Saker who first coined the term “concern troll”? He would label anyone who was pointing to problems in Russia’s tactics and fighting as a “concern troll”. Now he is bailing out – ending his blog at this month’s end and archiving it.
Posted by: MiniMo | Feb 24 2023 6:17 utc | 303
Heads up for Gonzalo Lira’s next Round Table… Scheduled for today at 11PM, that is, 40 minutes from the time of this post.
The Roundtable #48: Clown World Roundup with Yves Smith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh5QZFF8B3E
– RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Feb 24 2023 6:19 utc | 304
@76
lol….
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpqdJ4WWcAA0RE7?format=jpg
Really?
An expert, not getting that “plant” has two different meanings – “to plant charges” and “plant shaped = tree like” charges – and explaining that it is highly unlikely to model 300kg of C4 in the form of seaweed and thus Hersh must be wrong.
@76: thanks for the laugh
Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Feb 24 2023 6:36 utc | 306
OK, last few weeks I’ve been spending a bit more time on the Financial Times site, I dunno whether it is cos of any paywall dodging alterations to my browser – which work on less and less sites every week or just that FT doesn’t care whatever it is I can still access it without being forced to pay to be lied to, something I like many others at the bar refuse to countenance.
The site frequently has articles such as this POS:
China no longer viable as world’s factory, says Kyocera
The ‘news item’ spews out the regular garbage about how amerika’s tech sanctions plus shock horror! Ssssh! rises in wages has wrecked the world’s factory China as a factory. This particular article based around the words of a spokesman for a Japanese corporation is a particularly nasty piece of xenophobia.
Thing is despite that China’s economy is still growing every year and the best these shit-stirrers can ever come up with is a claim that China’s growth rate is slowing down, i.e. China’s economy is still growing but some years it doesn’t grow as fast as it has in other years- so what? When you check it out you discover that was a year when europe and amerika suffered ‘negative growth’ that is the economies of the west went backwards but even so China still grew.
FFS these are petty-minded fools in the west claiming to be ‘leaders’.
Anyway a week or so ago I came across Apple’s manufacturing shift to India hits stumbling blocks:
” Apple is hitting stumbling blocks in its effort to increase production in India, as the US tech giant faces pressure to cut its manufacturing reliance on China. . .
. . . Apple is building up nascent operations in India in an overdue diversification strategy, following the blueprint it set in China two decades ago, with engineers and designers often spending weeks or months at a time in factories to oversee manufacturing.
While Apple has been producing lower-end iPhones in India since 2017, last September was significant with Indian suppliers building flagship models within weeks of their launch in China, where virtually all iPhones and other Apple hardware are made.
But its experience in recent months has demonstrated the scale of the work to be done in the country.
At a casings factory in Hosur run by Indian conglomerate Tata, one of Apple’s suppliers, just about one out of every two components coming off the production line is in good enough shape to eventually be sent to Foxconn. . . ”
If you care to read the rest of the piece it basically spells out that the cultural differences between China and India makes it very tough for amerikan engineers to come anywhere close to getting the South India factory to be as successful as the Chinese factories have been.
I didn’t think much more about it until I came across this today:
Apple/Luxshare: AR deal shows growing trust in Chinese suppliers :
”
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/1c903173-eda3-459c-99c1-0634eec367a4
One AirPod at a time, Chinese supplier Luxshare Precision is taking on the world. The company’s plan to become Apple’s main supplier has almost been achieved. It started by producing Apple’s wireless headphones. Now it has its sights fixed on the iPhone maker’s augmented reality headsets.
For the first time, a Chinese supplier has been hired to develop a new premium Apple product. Luxshare can now add AR headsets to the list of Apple products it supplies, including iPhones and Apple Watches.”
Hmm D’ya reckon corporate amerika may be a major stumbling block for the Pentagon & all the other MIC warhawks’ overpowering desire to go to war with The People’s Republic of China?
That force is the only force which could be an insurmountable obstacle to those wanting the war against China that the MIC has been dreaming of.
Yep sometimes corporate amerika and the MIC seem to be one and the same thing, yet there have been occasions when we have seen that this was not so, I guess it all works out on the money balance and which bucket will be bigger, money made by war Vs money and future monies lost by the war.
They could certainly delay the thing considerably and time is a major issue for amerika who need to try and lure China into a conflict before China becomes too powerful economically and militarily.
Order in the popcorn.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 24 2023 6:40 utc | 307
dammit in 309 I thought I had cleaned outall of the FT’s intrusion but this bit snuck past my lousy proofread plaese ignore this bit
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/1c903173-eda3-459c-99c1-0634eec367a4
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 24 2023 6:46 utc | 308
On blowing up Nord Stream…
https://archive.ph/zbtBP
No idea if it is true, but I have no idea about most things…
Posted by: Benn | Feb 24 2023 7:02 utc | 309
Posted by: Benn | Feb 24 2023 7:02 utc | 311
Mostly isn’t. Helmer’s complaints are mostly baseless AFAIK.
– RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Feb 24 2023 7:19 utc | 310
Listening to the Defense Politics Asia round table. Ritter is his usual self, Alex from History Legends is OK, the guy from Sanya Florida is clueless, although he does recognize that the Russian economy has weathered the sanctions well, whereas Ukraine has lost 30% or more of its economy and can’t survive economically.
I’m stopping at 28 minutes in since I’m unlikely to hear anything I haven’t heard before. I prefer to watch some porn instead of this. And then there’s the Kung Fu episode left over from last night. 🙂
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Feb 24 2023 7:38 utc | 311
Benn #311
Thank you, Scholz has been pocketed by Wall Street since well before he covered for them when they emptied out Germany funds into their stash. He was ceo of some faux fraud regulator and facilitated a ‘get out of jail free’ card for Wall Street. He and UK are in lock step to fleece EU states.
Note Boris is to replace Stoltenberg according to Boris.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 24 2023 7:39 utc | 312
Damn, I am tired of people hyping up my country PMR (aka “Transnistria”) and trying to suck us into this crap.
Literally, last night all the Russian telegram channels were saying the border between PMR and Moldova was “cut” as were “all communications.” Utter BS. Border is operating 100% normally, and there are no phone lines between the two to “cut” in the first place.
Lastly, at least try googling the place before spitting out crap like “12,000 Russian soldiers” in PMR et al. It’s all hysterical nonsense.
I frigging know this because I live here.
Posted by: Sam (in Tiraspol) | Feb 24 2023 8:07 utc | 313
Sam #315
Good to know someone who lives there. So what is your take on the situation? Will the Ukes trash the joint?
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 24 2023 8:32 utc | 314
Sam (in Tirasol)
Ok Sam why not put the record straight then , here’s your opportunity, I’m listening give us the low down.
Try googling ? Ha ha you don’t live in the west do you. News on Google thanks to algorithms has long gone.
If you beleave Google news both you and PMR are in sereous trouble.
But please a genuine request from me im interested and its important.
Give us your view on the situation there.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 24 2023 8:38 utc | 315
Bloomberg reports BASF job cuts and ammonia production halt.
BASF SE declined after detailing plans to cut 2,600 positions globally as well ending a share buyback early because of a deteriorating global economy amid Europe’s energy crisis.
The company, reducing its workforce by about 2% through 2024, also forecast lower earnings this year, it said Friday as Europe’s biggest chemical firm adjusts to a future without cheap Russian gas. The shares fell as much as 5.1% in early Frankfurt trading, the most since October.
To save costs, BASF is closing a number of energy-intensive factories, including two ammonia plants and related fertilizer facilities, resulting in 700 job cuts at its main Ludwigshafen plant in Germany.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 24 2023 8:55 utc | 316
Waiting for Godot (again and again)
Dima this morning on arms dumps,roads and railroads, and assault on Odessa to protect the PDM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4TWUjulqDo
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 24 2023 8:56 utc | 317
Weeb Union just now – Wagner take Yahidne
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP51jOgnevc
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 24 2023 9:04 utc | 318
Sam @ 315
Or perhaps just tell us which way you want to jump East Or West ? You mentioning Google news told me alot but I could be wrong.
Good luck anyway, I’d be pretty nervous and stressed if I lived there right now. If your gen stick around.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 24 2023 9:04 utc | 319
@ Sam (in Tiraspol) | Feb 24 2023 8:07 utc | 315
Sitreps from Tiraspol please.
Bar-tab in return.
My own utopian dream is the Dniestr watershed united to the sea, whatever the politicolegal status of the entity.
Welcome to Dniestria.
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 24 2023 9:39 utc | 320
Sam (in Tiraspol)
Mate, its getting late and we would like to know a thing or two about your home state.
Maybe if you tried duckduckgo it would suit your style?
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 24 2023 10:07 utc | 321
too scents | Feb 24 2023 8:55 utc | 318
Came here to post Javier Blas, see you’ve posted on BASF.
>… And, so it begins:
BASF, the world’s top chemical company, announces permanent plant closures at its home base of Ludwigshafen and the loss of 2,600 jobs, mostly in Europe.
“Europe’s competitiveness is increasingly suffering,” said BASF Chairman Martin Brudermüller.
This line from BASF release is brutal:
“BASF’s European customers will continue to be reliably supplied with TDI [a chemical product] from BASF’s global production network with plants in Geismar, **Louisiana**; Yeosu, **South Korea**; and Shanghai, **China**”
(My **empahsis**)
_ Javier Blas, Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1629016133650055170
Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 24 2023 10:09 utc | 322
Zet | Feb 23 2023 19:31 utc posted THIS in “Ukraine open thread 2023-45”:
“there are two more infographics:
US’ technological hegemony: monopoly and suppression
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285966.shtml
US’ military hegemony: wanton use of force
“>https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1286076.shtml”
Zet, THANK YOU so much for these links!!
The two infographics should be printed, framed and displayed in every classroom on the planet.
Posted by: LongCovid | Feb 24 2023 10:13 utc | 323
the Chinese peace plan is boring and seems to be a collection of previous statements tass.com/world/1581103
Posted by: rk | Feb 24 2023 10:17 utc | 324
the Chinese peace plan is a piece of cake, so Russia would do well to be wary of allies like this.
Posted by: A.cagliostro | Feb 24 2023 10:31 utc | 325
309 yes the china econony has slowed. i do remember figures like 21% growth. china slowed to numbers no west could ever dream about . even in shutdown zero covid mode it was 5% , more than my nation has in a good year
Posted by: hankster | Feb 24 2023 10:53 utc | 326
Yesterday the ‘Defender of the Fatherland’ (former ‘Red Army’) day was celebrated. Komsomolskaya Pravda reporter Alexander Kots celebrated this day with Russian paratroopers near Seversk (North of Artemovsk/Bakhmut). He describes how new equipment straight from the factory is being tested in the reality of the battlefield. There is an improved Infantery Fighting Vehicle BMP2-2M that carries four Kornet anti-tank missiles. These missiles can be fired at an Abrams four at the same time & the same target. This means that the armor first receives a blast from one missile, immediately followed by a second, third and fourth missile at the very same spot. https://www.kp.ru/daily/27470.5/4725429/
Another “boiler” for the APU? Russian troops make their way to Seversk – new weapons come here straight from factories
Voenkor Kots spent Defender of the Fatherland Day with real heroes on the front line
“WHAT IS THIS GOING ALONG THE RIDE? LET’S GRAY THERE!”
– Happy holiday, comrade officers! – I crawl on February 23 into the underground control room of one of the Russian formations.
A dozen men in uniform stare at several large screens. From the side, one might think that this is an organized viewing of a festive concert or congratulations from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. But on the monitors – no shiny tinsel, no bravura fanfare, no pop stars. Defender of the Fatherland Day in the NVO zone is not a reason to break away from combat work. The screens display a picture from drones, which, overcoming the electronic suppression of the enemy, transmit the picture from the other side in real time.
– What is it going along the clearing? Point, – the officer commands.
A man with a joystick, like from a game console, zooms in on an armored car. This is an enemy armored personnel carrier. He drives into the forest, thinking that he is becoming invisible to our drones. But from the control point it is clearly visible how two people leave the “box”, they are met by a third and keeping a distance they are walking together somewhere in the snow. The drone guides them for 10 minutes until they “lead” our operator to a hidden stronghold dug in a thicket and carefully camouflaged. Looks like one of the bosses came to inspect.
– Let’s “Gradami” there.
– Consumption?
– Two to five.
This means that five rockets are fired at the enemy position first. After the adjustment – five more. Ten more followed them, plunging the opornik into black smoke, after which no movement was noted in the forest. The armored personnel carrier managed to leave somewhere, but the operators find a new target – an artillery gun similar to the American M777 howitzer. This time, the communications from the control center go to the operators of the Lancet loitering ammunition, which are based a few kilometers away. Minutes later, the control room already has footage of the defeat, filmed by a kamikaze drone.
GETTING BACK WHAT YOU LEFT LAST YEAR
Actually, ideally, this is how the notorious RUK should look like – a reconnaissance-strike circuit. When command and control, and artillery, and drones, and assault detachments of different units work as a single organism. But just a few months ago, the line of resistance here, near Kremennaya, was bursting at the seams. The enemy really threatened to break through the defense and go to the rear of the Lugansk People’s Republic. And in the fall, after the Kharkov region, we could lose part of the LPR.
However, units of the Airborne Forces were hastily transferred here, to which I came to visit on a festive morning. It was they who were able to stop the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And the mobilized who arrived in the landing units did not just stabilize the line of defense. Today, they are moving forward on a par with regular military personnel, occupying more advantageous positions and wringing out the positions lost last year.
The paratroopers today operate on almost the entire Svatovsky line, moving both towards Liman and Belogorovka. At the same time, they can boast of new weapons that are transferred to the troops straight from the factories. The same “Lancets” – domestic kamikaze drones – have been very active in this direction in recent weeks. They reach where artillery cannot fire.
“Or brand new BMD-4s (airborne combat vehicles – Ed.) came to us, Berezhok, again, very worthy vehicles,” a familiar officer of the 76th Guards Airborne Division tells me.
Together we went to one of the sectors of the front, where his subordinates operate. Also from among the mobilized.
ABRAMSAM IS PREPARING A HOT MEETING
– Your ideas about the fighting strongly diverged from reality? – I ask Sergey from the Kemerovo region, the commander of the BMP-2M (infantry fighting vehicle. – Ed.) “Berezhka” with the inscription on the board “Kuzbass is power!”
– Well, no one was expecting a “kindergarten” here, everyone understood that this was not childish pranks. The adversary is strong, no one spares anyone. Well, no one canceled cunning and military ingenuity. We have the necessary weapons, we crush the enemy.
“Berezhok” is the second birth of the good old BMP-2. Only in addition to the usual 30-mm cannon, it now has four Kornet anti-tank systems, a heavy machine gun and an automatic grenade launcher. Moreover, all four “Cornets” can be fired at one point by the machine. And at the training ground, the mobilized worked out shooting with a “doublet”. It will certainly come in handy when NATO-style tanks appear on the line of contact. The same “Abrams” with one missile can not be taken. And when two, but in one place – the chances are much greater. Yes, and the armor of the BMP-2M is more serious.
“Recently, they came under mortar fire, grabbed a charge under the “goose” – the car is intact, the entire crew is healthy,” says Sergey. – And of course here the internal equipment is of a completely different class. And thermal imagers, and night vision devices, and the fire control system are all very accurate and reliable. We work at night without problems.
Sergey served six years ago in the Far East, in the 83rd Air Assault Brigade. After the “demobilization” he was an individual entrepreneur – metal acceptance, construction. According to him, when the summons was handed over, he had no doubts.
– If you do not go against the adversary, then he will soon stand at our gate. I would not want my family to suffer from this.
– This is probably the first such holiday in your life. Has your attitude towards him changed?
– More pride in the native army. I want to congratulate my relatives and colleagues, comrades in arms. Good luck and most importantly, be patient. We will definitely win.
NOW THE OPPONENT JUMPS IN THE CORNERS, CATCHING THE BLOW
As in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), near Kremennaya, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering huge losses. At the same time, they cling to every bush and are constantly looking for opportunities to counterattack. The enemy is trying to crush the positions of our paratroopers and motorized riflemen in small maneuverable groups. If it gets really hot, armored groups come to the aid of our infantry. Several cars roll out for direct fire and literally pierce the forest in front of them. As a rule, after the “command performance” of our BMD and BMP, the enemy’s offensive fuse fades away.
– Sometimes it’s easy to push through the enemy, sometimes it’s very difficult, but be that as it may, we move forward. We have one goal. Where it is hard – to endure, where it is easier – to rest. We work with artillery or armored groups. Reconnaissance transmits coordinates to us, coordinates our actions from the air, we leave, suppress enemy fire, and infantry enters under our cover, another mobilized tells me.
Oleg from Omsk, he also served in the Airborne Forces, in the 137th regiment in Ryazan, as a driver. On the “citizen” he worked as a master for the shipment of finished products.
– After the army, of course, I celebrated February 23, not really thinking about the essence. And now I understand that I am literally defending my Motherland.
– By cars! – the command sounds.
And Oleg with his crew in a convoy of three combat vehicles is advanced to the next task in the area of the Torsky ledge, where Russian paratroopers are pushing the enemy towards Seversk and Belogorovka. From the east, the enemy group is crushed by motorized rifles and units of the 2nd Army Corps of the LPR, from the south – by groups of Wagner PMCs, which in parallel form an encirclement ring around Artemovsk.
“The initiative is now on our side,” one of the commanders told me. – If earlier I felt like a goalkeeper in training, who jumped from one corner to another, plugging holes, now in this position – the enemy. The main thing is to move so that he does not have the opportunity to concentrate strike groups in any direction. Now let the APU jump all over the “goalkeeper”.
Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Feb 24 2023 11:29 utc | 327
A scandal is brewing in Ukrainian society against the backdrop of illegal mobilization, where military commissars are paid for every “carcass”.
Our source points out that the Transnistrian case came in very handy for the Office of the President, now it is possible to shift the informational focus to Moldova and the war with Tiraspol in order to distract the masses from illegal mobilization, the risk of defeat and the encirclement of Bakhmut/Artemovsk, corruption in the OP and the Defense Ministry, etc.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:29 utc | 328
Year of war…
Unlike propagandists, we will sum up our results.
Negative:
– the country is completely destroyed
– no industry
– mortality is increasing, the population has become vulnerable to epidemics
– devastation is growing in all directions (housing, roads, railway, etc.)
There are no human rights and freedom of speech.
– Corruption in government has only increased
– lawlessness of officials
– no work
– the country is in a complete debt hole for the next 50 years
– the split in the country on the cultural and linguistic issue persists
– losses in the army are colossal, but classified
The economy is on the verge of collapse. The hryvnia is under threat of collapse.
Positive:
– Ukraine has proved that it can resist and fight
– Ukraine survived as a country
Conclusion: only transnational corporations, Zelensky (received all possible awards, recognition and popularity), partially Ukrainian oligarchs who remain in the game, having managed to withdraw all their assets abroad (not counting the real estate that they got in 90 -e for a penny).
Next year will be even harder…
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:31 utc | 329
Just spitballing but I think we will soon see a massive increase in Chinese anti-drone technology deployed in Ukraine.
It would be hard for NATO to argue that anti-drone tech is offensive weaponry.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 24 2023 11:31 utc | 330
Our source reports that all operators, gunners, etc. for “Himers” are foreigners (Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Romanians).
Ukrainian troops are engaged only in the protection and escort of toys. In some cases, they give the right to “steer” the machine.
The same situation will be for the new Leopard tanks, where the crews will be foreign. Ukrainians will be given the right to manage old modifications.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:32 utc | 331
Dmitry Medvedev : Victory will be achieved. We will Push the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland 🇵🇱
It’s been a year now that a special operation is underway. A year of our soldiers restoring order, peace, and justice to our land, protecting our people, and destroying the roots of neo-Nazism They are heroes. They have the whole country helping them by supplying them with everything they need. Victory will be achieved. We all want it to happen as soon as possible. and that day will come. We will take back our territories and reliably protect our people, who have suffered during the years of genocide and shelling.
What’s next?
Then there will be negotiations, which I am sure will be difficult and nerve-racking. First of all, the formal negotiators on our adversary’s side are few, but the actual leaders are quite different (the formal negotiators are different from the actual decision makers) And the decisions for the Kiev regime will certainly not be made by someone named Zelensky, if he is still alive, or by his clique. The decision will be made across the ocean by those in charge of supplying weapons to Kiev and allocating money to support the remaining Ukrainian economy.
The motives of our country’s main enemies are obvious: to weaken Russia as much as possible and to permanently debilitate us. Therefore, they are not interested in ending the conflict. But sooner or later, according to the laws of history, they will do so. And then some kind of agreement will emerge. Naturally, without fundamental agreements about real borders or a new Helsinki Pact to ensure security in Europe, just some kind of agreement.
Then, most likely, an equally difficult time will begin. Months and years of exhausting confrontation, hysteria, and boredom on the part of those who will govern what remains of Ukraine Their fate is unenviable.
They will not be able to accept the outcome of the SMO without risking execution on the same day. The nationalists will continue to control the cabal in power because none of them has an ideology other than Bandera neo-Nazism. Admitting defeat is like death for them. Therefore, the ideology of “Maybuthny peremogi” can remain for a long time.
And at some point, the new “bloody boys,” who call themselves the legal Ukrainian government, will again provoke a global conflict, nailed to the wall by the Banderovites, who have once again become rampant. It doesn’t matter if it’s on the eve of elections or just another Maidan.
This cannot be allowed to happen.
That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. to push back the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if it is the borders of Poland. to destroy neo-Nazism to the ground. to avoid wasting time catching the remnants of the bandera gangs in the forests of Malorussia. so that the world can find its long-awaited tranquility.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/34764
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:35 utc | 332
The head of the British Defense ministry Ben Wallace said that by 2030 war will come to Britain, and the country must be “ready and equipped.”
According to him, “the world has become more dangerous, more troubled, and more insecure.” We need to devote most of our public spending to defense. Whether it’s a cold war or a hot war, at the end of this decade, conflict and war will be at our door. “We need to understand that we need to be prepared, equipped, and on the side of our friends and allies, just to act as a deterrent.”
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/34780
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:38 utc | 333
Combat Debut.
On February 21st, probably hoping to piss in Vladimir Putin’s proverbial Cheerios as he was making his annual State of the Federation speech, the Ukrainians launched a massive salvo of ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs at Mariupol, which has been out of range of their weapons since they ran out of Tochkas over the summer. This incident was significant for a couple of reasons.
First, it showed that Ukraine has gotten access to GLSDBs well ahead of schedule, although these are probably hand-built prototype rounds rather than mass-production models. Second, it showed that GLSDB is a terrible weapon, because every single one out of more than fifteen launched was shot down by Russian air defenses.
It turns out, unsurprisingly, that air defense systems that can handily see off near-hypersonic GMLRS projectiles have little trouble defeating subsonic glide bombs. I expect that further orders and a wider deployment of the system will be quietly cancelled after this fiasco.
This has wider implications, however. SDBs incorporate stealth shaping and apparently have a similar radar cross-section to the F-35 – a target that is immensely larger and hotter, and one which has failed to distinguish itself through superior flight performance compared to older models.
NATO’s fifth-generation fighter fleet would thus likely suffer a similar fate if it attempted to penetrate Russian airspace without conducting a very intensive old-style suppression campaign against their air defenses. This should give NATO’s war planners considerable pause. I personally doubt it will, however, because if NATO has distinguished itself in any way during this conflict it is through unfounded, preening arrogance.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/45792
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:39 utc | 334
Richard Hack around 226
“Russia can take Transnistria back any time they want. Look at the map and remember that Russia controls the Black Sea. Transnistria may be land-locked but it’s not far from the Black Sea. All Russia has to do is load up the Black Sea Fleet with a bunch of landing ships supported by paratroopers and the Russian air and missile force and it’s game over for Moldova.”
Sorry, not that easy.
Russia does not control the Black Sea. Russia has not exited any harbour in a big way since the marine drones attacked Sebastopol harbour . Turkey has closed off The Straits , but if the US really wanted , it would just push ahead and send naval ships of its own through. What will Turkey do? Fire on the Americans? I don’t think so. Not now in present circumstances.Yet, it doesn’t have to ; as it was shown Russia is unwilling or unable to fly the flag in the Black Sea . If it could take over Moldova with naval assets ,it would have landed troops in Odessa and not have run from Kherson as it did.
The ammunition in PMR is mostly unstable and what is not now unstable , are duds. So Ukraine can use it , but at their own risk , but of course the US and Elensky don’t care about that .
So sadly, it appears Russia is unwilling or unable to militarily protect and retain the PMR unless it escalates and gets some more “killer instinct”. I don’t put much stock in “will retake it after.”
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 5:14 utc | 297
US secretly stocking its US bases with arms siphoned off from Ukraine deliveries for a China Taiwan War?
Well China should rightly nuke the Philippines when it happens. I guess Australia will cop it too. Stupid is as stupid does…
Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 24 2023 11:56 utc | 335
“The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has decided to send employees of military registration and enlistment offices of four regions to the front line in the special operation zone, according to the order of the Minister of Defense Reznikov, the photo of the document is being distributed on social networks, including on the Telegram channel of a military expert, retired Lieutenant Colonel of the LPR Andrey Marochko.
Marochko, who published the document, specified that he obtained it from his own sources.”
-Intel Slava
Now that they are sending enlisters themselves to the front (someone had a bad day meeting quota?) wonder if Ukraine has also formed the Luftwaffe Feld divisions. Since they have only few planes/nominal air force, they can allocate pilots and mechanics into front-line grunts.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 24 2023 11:57 utc | 336
“Dmitry Medvedev : Victory will be achieved. We will Push the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland”
Before you reach Poland, how about first push them just a few km from Donetsk and Belgorod? Better idea: Medvedev, Shoigu and Gerasimov must move their offices to Donetsk and Belgorod. I bet there will be a 500% increase in their productivity. Maybe we should also open a kickstarter to pay for Martyanov’s trip and a month long holiday in Donetsk with visits to Melitopol, Kherson and ZNPP as bonus.
Posted by: rk | Feb 24 2023 12:00 utc | 337
The media is spewing hyperbolic BS today. Give it a week and it will die down again, or alternatively we could be all perished in nuclear fire. I don’t see anything significant change on ground compared to 2 or 3 weeks ago, just propaganda ramping up and soon declining, like a bipolar disorder patient.
Meanwhile per MODreport, Ukraine’s tanks have appeared again on the front. Probably T-64 variants. Close air support seems a bit more active. In Kherson, the counterbattery seems to be working pretty well.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 24 2023 12:19 utc | 338
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 24 2023 4:43 utc | 292
I think you have too much faith in the 2nd Amendment, whatever that is.
The US has never yet had its population mauled by war on its own soil, and when the time comes your mums and wives will likely act the same , and receive the same short shrift as well. Americans have allowed their whole livelihoods to be stolen from themselves and they did nothing . Yet, you think you will rise up and fight against Press-gangs? You may ,your friends may , but the US in general? I don’t think so.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 24 2023 12:22 utc | 339
i would think ukies in big columns moving into Transnistria would be easy for drones and other air assets to clean out. kuwait highway style. that usa 101st cav might get to see valhalla as well
Posted by: hankster | Feb 24 2023 12:22 utc | 340
Transnistria … perhaps the Russians should actually do a “shock & awe” against the forces assembling at the border, using a Sarmat”>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat”>Sarmat with 24 Avangards. Then again, the West might wet more than their pants if such a rocket makes it way into the sky …
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Feb 24 2023 12:35 utc | 341
“Russian Foreign Ministry warns the United States, NATO countries and the Ukrainian authorities against the next adventurous steps, in particular, in relation to Pridnestrovie. Any actions that pose a security threat to compatriots, peacekeepers and the military in Pridnestrovie will be regarded as an attack on the Russian Federation”
Posted by: rk | Feb 24 2023 12:38 utc | 342
The future attack on the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is THE red line that will trigger open war against NATO.
It’s not that Russian leaders care so much about preserving lives of thousands of Russians destined for ethnic cleansing. It is rather the prospect of seeing the Russian flag removed from the military base of Tiraspol who will make them move at last.
PMR women will defend against the invasion as in 1992, forcing Russian soldiers to stay. Faced with the spectacle of thousands of Russian families resisting the conquest, Russia could only emerge from this war of slow attrition and without concrete results.
And if Russia can only defend the PMR with atomic missiles, let it do so. After all, if Ukrainians are suicidal, why not offer them death? I say that those who want Russia dismembered and russians people dead or enslaved deserve to burn slowly by radiation. I would prefer Russia to stay alive but “the world without Russia doesn’t interest me”
Posted by: America is defeated | Feb 24 2023 12:55 utc | 343
Posted by: Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:39 utc | 336
Interesting report, thanks for that. Confirms the range, that the slow glide is easy to intercept, and that there don’t appear to be many available. If there were lots of them it might be a different matter. On the comparison with F35, from the little I’ve learned from promo material, the GLSDB combo seems climb high during the rocket burn in order to convert the motor energy into glide hight (range), this whole process makes them very easy to spot during the boost phase and leaves the SDB high the sky after separation. Granted that the SDB might have a similar radar return but the flight profile seems to make them easier to spot and track, though I stand to be corrected.
Stumbled across this, which may or may not be the mysterious “Phoenix Ghost” drone.
“Closer look at the new Ghost Drone being trialled by the RAF & US Army”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ0oPI4AXQ8
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 24 2023 13:03 utc | 344
rk | Feb 24 2023 12:38 utc | posted THIS:
“Russian Foreign Ministry warns the United States, NATO countries and the Ukrainian authorities against the next adventurous steps, in particular, in relation to Pridnestrovie. Any actions that pose a security threat to compatriots, peacekeepers and the military in Pridnestrovie will be regarded as an attack on the Russian Federation”
Care to post the LINK to your quotation?
Posted by: LongCovid | Feb 24 2023 13:17 utc | 345
Posted by: LongCovid | Feb 24 2023 13:17 utc | 347
https://t.me/fortherussiantruth/9177
The above is AFAIK from the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Meanwhile …
The Kiev regime steps up preparations for an invasion of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic
◽️ As previously reported, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will perform this provocation in response to an alleged attack by Russian troops from Transdniestrian territory.
◽️ The Russian Defence Ministry currently reports on significant accumulation of Ukrainian military personnel and hardware close to the Transnistria–Ukraine border, the deployment of artillery at firing positions, as well as an unprecedented build-up of UAV flights by the Ukrainian Armed Forces over Transnistrian territory.
◽️ The implementation of the plotted provocation by the Ukrainian authorities poses a direct threat to the Russian peacekeeping contingent legally stationed in Transnistria.
◽️ The Russian Armed Forces will respond adequately to Ukraine’s impending provocation.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/6257
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Feb 24 2023 14:00 utc | 346
US Commerce Department will announce export restrictions against nearly 90 companies from Russia, China and other countries across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. In coordination with the G7 countries, will impose sanctions against more than 200 individuals and legal entities from Russia and third countries. Today’s action will result in increased tariffs on more than 100 Russian metals, minerals, and chemical products. It will also significantly increase costs for aluminum that was smelted or cast in Russia to enter the US market – TASS 1581265, 1581263, 1581259
Posted by: rk | Feb 24 2023 14:21 utc | 347
If the Ukronazis are massing troops on the border with Moldova, well….what is Russia waiting for? Fire your artillery, kalibers, iskanders, and whatever else you have and wipe out each and every Nazi in uniform. What are you waiting for Gerasimov?
Posted by: Webulls | Feb 24 2023 14:52 utc | 348
Posted by: rk | Feb 24 2023 14:21 utc | 349
Those sanctions are only proving Putin’s point when he mocked “oligarchs” about parking their fortunes in western financial institutions. US is effectively cordoning its empire off from the rest of the world, we shall see very soon whether who is the truly more autarkic and self-sufficient economy. And who will fall on its face.
I can tell you without hesitation that EU-rope will suffer very heavily in terms of basic consumer products if they actually limit imports from China. If you look at official EU trade statistics, they rely pretty much on everything from telecommunication equipment to electronic valves to baby carriages to textiles from China. The largest exports from EU to China are ultimately vehicles and vehicle parts, and the German automobile brands don’t have that big of an advantage in China. They have the “brand” but aren’t really competitive anymore.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 24 2023 15:22 utc | 349
Re:rk | Feb 24 2023 12:00 utc | 339
Bravo, you said it better than I could:
“Dmitry Medvedev : Victory will be achieved. We will Push the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland”
Before you reach Poland, how about first push them just a few km from Donetsk and Belgorod? Better idea: Medvedev, Shoigu and Gerasimov must move their offices to Donetsk and Belgorod. I bet there will be a 500% increase in their productivity. Maybe we should also open a kickstarter to pay for Martyanov’s trip and a month long holiday in Donetsk with visits to Melitopol, Kherson and ZNPP as bonus.
—-
The Bear has been crying “wolf” for too long now and all the red chalk for drawing red lines is about used up.
The neocons are psychopaths who believe their own propaganda. They will not stop doubling down. Russian threats mean as much to them as do arms control agreements.
Indian Punchline says the much anticipated “Russian winter offensive” will remain in suspended animation until March, after Chinese President Xi Jinping finishes up with Chinese legislative meetings.
But I seriously doubt we have that long until something truly blows up.
My current bet is on Transnistria. Lots of shitty but badly needed ammo just an arms length away, guarded by a handful of locally recruited Russian troops. It will be like the good ole days, like a cakewalk in Grenada! Maybe the neocons think it is a win-win situation: if Putin doesn’t respond with force, he will be replaced (surely with a more compliant Russian leader), or if he does hit back, then they finally have the war they want (which they know they can win).
Yes, there are surely those in the Pentagon who know what war with Russia means. But are they in positions of command? I don’t hear any speaking out lately, do you? How pathetic, the last best desperate hope of preventing nuclear war is thought to reside in the Pentagon. Certainly not in the War Party that makes up Congress, nor in the Executive [sic] branch.
On this anniversary day of a war that Russia should have ended long ago, Paul Craig Roberts writes: “Washington Egged on by Its Neoconservatives Has Concluded that Putin Has No Stomach for War beyond a Limited Police Action”. Can’t post a link, verboten, but can copy some of the text:
“The Kremlin’s demonstrated inability to take proactive and decisive action has convinced Washington there is nothing to fear from Putin and that Russia can be defeated in Ukraine. Indeed, the UK media takes for granted that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Here is the latest headline: “The West Needs a Plan for when Ukraine wins.”
Biden’s recent trip was to shore up the Eastern flank of NATO in anticipation of renewed action against Russia. If the Biden regime favored a peaceful settlement, Biden would not have bothered to meet in Warsaw with the leaders of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria. There would be no need for Biden to go to Kiev to show American support for Zelensky.
I am often interviewed by Russian journalists–never by American ones whose task it is to protect the official narratives. The Russian journalists are ever hopeful for signs that the US favors a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. I was just interviewed about Biden’s trip. Did he go to Kiev to work out a peace plan with Zelensky?
How can anyone possibly think Washington favors a peace plan other than Russia’s withdrawal from Donbass and Crimea and payment of reparations to Ukraine? Washington would favor this plan because it would be likely to bring down Putin, which is Washington’s intent.
Such a withdrawal is one of the Kremlin’s two choices. As such a withdrawal would likely mean the fall of the Putin government, the Kremlin only has one choice: to use the force necessary to quickly bring the conflict to an end before it spirals out of control.
Posted by: Perimetr | Feb 24 2023 15:28 utc | 350
I’m not hearing any practical way to defend Transnistria, nor to capture Odessa. And the terrain looks awful, sort of a delta to cross or land on. The incremental nature of Russian advances does not bode well for this area. Very Un blitzkreig. Given what happened around Kherson, I question Russian logistics in the area. At best, they better have a huge pile of Kinhzals for this. I also wonder if Ukr. air defenses are actually broken down in this area, rather than near Donbass.
Politically, it would be far worse than Kherson to just blow up the ammo stockpiles and let Ukr run over a Russian population. Please prove me wrong, it looks very ugly unless they can somehow drain Ukr forces so badly that that 3 day invasion estimate turns into a quagmire for Ukraine.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 24 2023 15:56 utc | 351
Question:
How does one ‘tactically’ nuke the Dollar?
… and then game over.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 24 2023 0:47 utc | 238
China, for one, is holding onto Trillions in U.S. Treasuries. They could cash them in.
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 16:18 utc | 352
@ Cond Zero
That always seemed like an option until the start of the SMO. Now we know that the US Treasury can choose to simply not honor its own debt, essentially confiscating the bonds held by the PRC.
Presumably that’s why the PRC is cautiously and gradually unwinding its holdings.
Posted by: malenkov | Feb 24 2023 16:28 utc | 353
Eighthman | Feb 24 2023 15:56 utc | 353
Let’s read the message again. It says it’ll be considered an attack on Russia and an adequate response will follow. Attacks on Russia happen daily and there’s no response so the solution is very simple: a “difficult decision” will be made, Kherson style. Problem solved
US sanctions update:
ZNPP was placed under sanctions, more Russian banks, 1219 members of Russian military, Belarus
Posted by: rk | Feb 24 2023 16:31 utc | 354
Yes it’s not like russia can’t fire anything into anywhere in ukraine. Hit those troop concentrations near moldova.
But yes, now do we all see how the russian high command betrays it’s own country? The very people Putin put all his trust in? Putin IS betraying russia, he needs to be strapped to a cruise missle and fired into kiev.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 24 2023 16:41 utc | 355
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 24 2023 15:56 utc | 353
On Transnistria, beyond the limited forces RF already has there, there seems little realistic chance for any kind of big airborne operation as it would be tracked by NATO surveillance systems and engaged with every AA / manpad system UA can muster.
Local troops and short range drones, plus long range drones under direct RF control, spotting for long range strike systems like rocket artillery, cruise missiles, Gerans etc. Anything that can home in on a laser spot would be especially useful.
Long range strike systems backed up by precision human and drone targeting seems like almost the only practical option.
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 24 2023 16:44 utc | 356
China, for one, is holding onto Trillions in U.S. Treasuries. They could cash them in.
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 16:18 utc | 354
Cash them in for what? Dollars? Yen? Roubles? You need a buyer.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 24 2023 16:49 utc | 357
Eighthman @ 353
Politically, it would be far worse than Kherson to just blow up the ammo stockpiles and let Ukr run over a Russian population. Please prove me wrong, it looks very ugly unless they can somehow drain Ukr forces so badly that that 3 day invasion estimate turns into a quagmire for Ukraine.
If it wasn’t an ugly situation for Russia the problem wouldn’t exist. IMO this is more of a Nuland show than a AFU/Pentagon show. It’s a hybrid war political move, it will get uglier for Russia, which is the point.
I think they first tried this with Armenia v. Azerbaijan but something stuck in NATO’s craw there, maybe Iran letting it be known they’ll invade Azerbaijan but likely a modern pogrom with the EU allied against christian Armenians was totally untenable, especially for Macron. They tried Georgia too, in fact they are trying everything. The current thing is the PMR, not sure there’s enough geopolitical mass or inertia there to prevent this one from happening.
The Russians can’t land troops there, it’s a narrow wedge of land, they’d be enfiladed from both sides, the Ukrainians and Moldovan/Romanian sides, that’s a position you never get into. It would draw the Black Sea fleet out of Russian waters, something I think NATO is salivating after. It’s a sad trap for Russia all around, that’s been the game since 2014.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 24 2023 16:51 utc | 358
@ Down South | Feb 24 2023 11:31 utc | 331
“Mission Accomplished”
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 24 2023 16:53 utc | 359
@ Don Firineach | Feb 24 2023 0:47 utc | 238
Gin up a run on it.
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 24 2023 16:58 utc | 360
China, for one, is holding onto Trillions in U.S. Treasuries. They could cash them in.
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 16:18 utc | 354
Cash them in for what? Dollars? Yen? Roubles? You need a buyer.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 24 2023 16:49 utc
The Fed. Plus you have other foreign holders (BOJ, BOE, ECB)
to take up the slack.
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 17:04 utc | 361
Opport Knocks @ 359
Cash them in for what? Dollars? Yen? Roubles? You need a buyer.
Someone with some sense.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 24 2023 17:09 utc | 362
Opport Knocks @ 359
Cash them in for what? Dollars? Yen? Roubles? You need a buyer.
Someone with some sense.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 24 2023 17:09 utc
You are correct except for one fact:
If China dumped its Treasury holdings, in theory, new buyers would have to emerge to buy them, and these new buyers would have to be induced by higher yields. Hence long-term Treasury yields would have to rise.
What is happening today.
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 17:14 utc | 363
Russians are still not fighting properly. The only folks dying are the local forces and the prisoners (Wagner). Putin is still wishy-washy. If Russia doesn’t defeat the west decisively in Ukraine and does not make it clear in no uncertain terms that it will not suffer these fools, Russia will be done in 20-30 years. It will be fully defeated by peaceful means. Russia must demilitarize eastern Europe or Europe will demilitarize Russia.
Posted by: Balkanizer | Feb 24 2023 17:24 utc | 364
reply to 361
Yikes. I was hoping to be disproved.
I suppose they could threaten from Odessa but that’s a huge campaign. I am very skeptical about logistics as they seem very dependent on rail. There were rumors about Russia being stuck without enough trucks. Not good. And if no one sees a buildup anywhere near Mikolaiav/Odessa, then it’s not gonna happen.
As for Treasuries, I read about T auction dealers getting scared about maybe being left holding the bag if they do an auction and not enough people show up to buy.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 24 2023 17:35 utc | 365
As for Treasuries, I read about T auction dealers getting scared about maybe being left holding the bag if they do an auction and not enough people show up to buy.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 24 2023 17:35 utc
Regardless of anyone’s position on this subject, China is dumping and most BRICS+ nations are doing likewise
and investing in GOLD.
Here’s one example:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bonds/China-s-U.S.-Treasury-holdings-hit-12-year-low-on-rate-hikes-tensions
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 17:39 utc | 366
“Acting head of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin said that the termination of the special operation in Ukraine without achieving all its goals would mean a new armed conflict postponed for some time. Pushilin noted that the plan proposed by the Chinese government to resolve the Ukrainian crisis cannot be called acceptable due to the presence of “Ukrainian” points in it. ”
This was probably related to Nebenzya ambiguous speech at UN, “Russia welcomes genuine aspirations for peace in Ukraine, such as China’s proposals. Russian Federation is ready to negotiate on the peaceful realization of the goals of the special operation, it will not even consider other scenarios”.
Posted by: rk | Feb 24 2023 17:58 utc | 367
Volodymyr Zelenskyy would plan to meet Xi Jinping.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/02/24/Ukraine-s-Zelenskyy-says-he-plans-to-meet-China-s-Xi
Posted by: Qiranys | Feb 24 2023 18:42 utc | 368
I think everyone is looking at the defense of PMR from the wrong direction.
Russia has how many troops lined up on the Belarus border??
a strike from the north running right up behind the Ukrainian troops as they attack the fortified bases of the PMR.
Posted by: Oldcutlas | Feb 24 2023 19:39 utc | 369
re: Oldcutlas | Feb 24 2023 19:39 utc | 370
thanks for that, kind of cheered me up
Posted by: Perimetr | Feb 24 2023 19:51 utc | 370
“The Wagner PMC units have completely captured the village of Berkhovka, located north of Bakhmut.
In general, the offensive operations of our subunits continue along the entire line of combat contact. According to the latest information, the musicians have already entered Yagodnoye.
@brussinf
PS: According to unconfirmed reports, a major part of Yagodnoye is controlled by the Wagner PMC. We may soon receive confirmed information about the liberation of Yagodnoye. ”
-Slavyangrad
Prigozhin also reported that the ammo situation has improved significantly and they now have something to work with.
They are also taking the southern parts of Marinka, west of Donetsk. Which could eventually also help unravel the Ugledar situation per Military Summary.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 24 2023 20:22 utc | 371
“From our contributor Alcibiades,
Combat Debut.
On February 21st, probably hoping to piss in Vladimir Putin’s proverbial Cheerios as he was making his annual State of the Federation speech, the Ukrainians launched a massive salvo of ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs at Mariupol, which has been out of range of their weapons since they ran out of Tochkas over the summer. This incident was significant for a couple of reasons. First, it showed that Ukraine has gotten access to GLSDBs well ahead of schedule, although these are probably hand-built prototype rounds rather than mass-production models. Second, it showed that GLSDB is a terrible weapon, because every single one out of more than fifteen launched was shot down by Russian air defenses. It turns out, unsurprisingly, that air defense systems that can handily see off near-hypersonic GMLRS projectiles have little trouble defeating subsonic glide bombs. I expect that further orders and a wider deployment of the system will be quietly cancelled after this fiasco.
This has wider implications, however. SDBs incorporate stealth shaping and apparently have a similar radar cross-section to the F-35 – a target that is immensely larger and hotter, and one which has failed to distinguish itself through superior flight performance compared to older models. NATO’s fifth-generation fighter fleet would thus likely suffer a similar fate if it attempted to penetrate Russian airspace without conducting a very intensive old-style suppression campaign against their air defenses. This should give NATO’s war planners considerable pause. I personally doubt it will, however, because if NATO has distinguished itself in any way during this conflict it is through unfounded, preening arrogance.”
– Alcibiades
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/45792
Claims of GLSDBs (small diameter guided bombs which fly subsonicly) shot down. It’s inevitable they will eventually get through somewhere, though.
The key point is people often disregard or forget, is that Ukraine has lost already major part of artillery and legacy Soviet MLRS systems. While they get some new from US, it won’t replace the original firepower capacity for a very long time, if ever.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 24 2023 20:29 utc | 372
@ Deplorable Commissar, §270
Seriously?
So Andorra, Samoa, Djibouti, Bhutan and Belize could outvote Russia + China + India + America?
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 24 2023 20:29 utc | 373
FWIW here’s today’s ‘scoreboard’ from the Russian Defence Ministry:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, the attacks, launched by Army Aviation and the artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralisation of the enemy manpower and hardware near Dvurechnaya, Krakhmalnoye, and Tabayevka (Kharkov region).
Over 60 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, and one D-20 howitzer have been eliminated.
In Krasny Liman direction, the active operations of the ‘Tsentr’ Group of Forces, supported by Ground-Attack and Army aviation, as well as the artillery fire, have resulted in the elimination of up to 140 Ukrainian personnel, three armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one fighting vehicle equipped with Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS), as well as the Msta-B, D-20, and D-30 howitzers near Novosadovoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Ploshchanka, Makeyevka, Chervonopopovka, and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).
In Donetsk direction, the units of the ‘Yug’ Group of Forces have launched a complex fire attack against the concentrations of enemy manpower and hardware along all the line of contact.
The enemy has lost up to 240 Ukrainian personnel, two tanks, seven armoured fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, the D-20 and D-30 howitzers, one D-44 anti-tank gun, as well as one U.S.-manufactured M-777 artillery system.
One command post and one ordnance depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been destroyed near Avdeyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In South Donetsk direction, Operational-Tactical Aviation and the artillery of the ‘Vostok’ Group of Forces have launched a complex fire attack against the AFU units near Vodyanoye, Ugledar, and Prechistovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Over 80 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, three pickups, four fighting vehicles equipped with Uragan MLRS, one D-20 howitzer, one U.S.-manufactured M-777 artillery system, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, as well as one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar have been eliminated.
Four AFU ordnance depots have been destroyed near Razdolnoye, Bogatyr (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Malinovka (Zaporozhye region).
In Kherson direction, the firepower operations have resulted in the elimination of over 40 Ukrainian personnel, one fighting vehicle equipped with Grad MLRS, one Msta-B howitzer, three D-30 howitzers, and the ordnance depot of 104th Artillery Brigade of the AFU near Vysshetarasovka (Dnepropetrovsk region).
Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 102 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, as well as the manpower and hardware in 142 areas.
The command post of 127th Territorial Defence Brigade has been neutralised near Peremoga (Kharkov region).
Air defence facilities have shot down four rocket-propelled projectiles, launched by HIMARS and Uragan MLRS, and six Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Merefa, Liman Vtoroy (Kharkov region), Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Golaya Pristan, and Novaya Zburyevka (Kherson region).
In total, 387 airplanes, 210 helicopters, 3,228 unmanned aerial vehicles, 405 air defence missile systems, 8,011 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,044 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,205 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 8,494 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.
Noted are the loss of a couple of M-777s, more tanks, and some Uragans, which is a type I haven’t seen featured in these reports for some time.
~~~
A local ‘sitrep’: I live within easy travelling distance of 6 supermarkets. As of 1900hrs this evening (local time) none of them have any tomatoes, salad onions, peppers, lettuces or eggs.
Freedom and democracy is just a word salad…
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 24 2023 21:14 utc | 374
For those interested Aleks has posted an Operational update to his substack:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/operational-update
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 21:42 utc | 375
Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Feb 24 2023 11:29 utc | 328
An aspect of the SMO whose importance few people understand. Russia is testing her weaponry against her future opponent who has has, by necessity, had to deploy her ISR capabilities coupled with her high tech-strike complexes and battlefield management systems. One of the big fears of NATO, during the Cold-War, was that if it ever kicked off it would be a ‘come as you are’ affair with no time to field improved versions of equipment. If some of the big ticket items failed, or advanced training tools were counter-productive (MILES’s encouraging soldiers that vegetation was cover not concealment) then predictive outcomes and their concomitant strategies would also fail. Russia, by taking her time is maximising opportunities to fine tune equipment and SOP’s against her peer adversary. It’s probably one reason China wants to get involved, the other being a fear Russia will steal a march on her in the export of weapons, using the much desired sobriquet, ‘combat tested’.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 24 2023 21:51 utc | 376
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 24 2023 21:42 utc | 376
Good piece imo. Since it focused decently on Artemovsk (Bakhmut), the thing is that once it’s taken, it can no longer be used as a “semi encircled” cauldron for grinding reserves. According to Military Summary channel today, Ukraine has already pulled the better troops out and rotated some terrodefense troops in, so seems like its utility as grinder is nearly finished.
Other points are that “big arrow offensives” are suicide, hence they are not happening. The attacks need to be put sequentially in different places. One of the current problems is especially lack of ability to project pressure in Ugledar, allowing Ukraine to focus on other parts of front.
And there is a designed sequential cycle how these advances are supposed to work. For example, Nikolaev is one of the very last phases, once all the previous ones are collapsed or under extreme pressure.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 24 2023 22:19 utc | 377
Lol.
Moldova passed a set of laws on the 2d instant collectively called “the law on separatism” which gives up to 12-year sentences to anyone conspiring against Moldova including justifying the separation of regions of Moldova such as the PMR and Gagauzia.
This would seem to hinder the Moldovan-PMR negotiations held alternately on both territories.
As the PMR Foreign Minister puts it, “The SIS of Moldova declares that everyone will be arrested, while Mr. Serebrian says the opposite. Well, to be honest, this is unconvincing.”
https://novostipmr.com/en/news/23-02-17/vitaly-ignatiev-law-separatism-remains-very-acute-problem
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 25 2023 1:57 utc | 378
Incidentally, Moldova’s Sandu (a Reptilian if there ever was one) and her old Party the PAS are major favorites of the US, Brussels, and the IMF:
_Somebody_ plainly wants to be the compradors/overseers over a new American Colony, tiny but strategically placed, for the American Master Plan, Russia -> China -> World.
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 25 2023 2:18 utc | 379
“Battle of Bohdanivka, Berkhivka area:
After the capture of Berkivka and the capture of Berkhivske’ Reservoir; our guys are now attacking in the direction of the village of Bohdanivka. Ukrainian units have attempted to pull reserves from the Transnistria area (however they were replaced by guys from Cherkasy); in order to prevent the PMC Wagner offensive in this area.
However, it remains premature to say our guys have entered the village of Bohdanivka.”
https://t.me/azmilitary11/39107
This suggests UAF was forced to shift forces back from Transnistria area to north of Bakhmut. Everything is interconnected, by winning and draining them in the east, is the best way to save Transnistria. The threat is still not over yet, though.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2023 6:54 utc | 380
So much military assistance is being promised to the 2014 Regime “next year,” and some truly beautiful things like an air force and NATO membership “after the end of the war . . . .”
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 25 2023 8:34 utc | 381
Larry Johnson posts:
America’s Delusional Military Fantasy.
Seven years ago General David Petraeus and analyst Michael O’Hanlon wrote this paean to the U.S. military:
The United States has the best military in the world today, by far. U.S. forces have few, if any, weaknesses, and in many areas—from naval warfare to precision-strike capabilities, to airpower, to intelligence and reconnaissance, to special operations—they play in a totally different league from the militaries of other countries. Nor is this situation likely to change anytime soon, as U.S. defense spending is three times as large as that of the United States’ closest competitor, China, and accounts for about one-third of all global military expenditures—with another third coming from U.S. allies and partners. Nevertheless, 15 years of war and five years of budget cuts and Washington dysfunction have taken their toll. The military is certainly neither broken nor unready for combat, but its size and resource levels are less than is advisable given the range of contemporary threats and the missions for which it has to prepare. No radical changes or major buildups are needed. But the trend of budget cuts should stop and indeed be modestly reversed, and defense appropriations should be handled more rationally and professionally than has been the case in recent years.
One of the lessons that should be learned from the war in Ukraine on the anniversary of the start of Russia’s Special Military Operation is that the United States has the most expensive military in the world but is totally unprepared to fight a first world power. During the last year we have learned that javelins, stingers and HIMARS are not game changers for Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has exposed the weakness of the U.S. and European military industrial base. NATO has lost its ability to produce essential ammunition required to sustain Ukraine’s needs in the battle and lacks stockpiles of tanks and armored vehicles that Ukraine begs for on a daily basis. The U.S. is no longer the industrial behemoth that churned out tanks, planes, aircraft carriers, destroyers and bombs in the Second World War.
Russia, for its part, continues to steadily advance along the entire 1000 mile front (not as fast as a bunch of arm chair generals want) and is inflicting massive casualties on the Ukrainian forces. At no point since February 2022 has Ukraine been able to mount a counter attack against a numerically equal Russian force. Ukraine’s much ballyhooed offensive from last August/September was against an outnumbered group of military police and Russia managed to effect a professional tactical retreat.
The real game changer is Russia’s industrial base. Russia has the natural resources, the factories and the skilled workers to produce the weapons, vehicles, tanks and planes it needs to sustain its forces in the field. The Biden Administration, the media and the pundits in America fail to grasp this reality. Instead they continue to repeat the lie that Russia’s economy is in tatters and drowning under the weight of U.S. sanctions.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 25 2023 10:21 utc | 382
Cond Zero #376
For those interested Aleks has posted an Operational update to his substack:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/operational-update
Thank you, BMA is always a worthwhile read and in my crammed days I often skip over too many.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 25 2023 10:31 utc | 383
The Accountant @54
Therefore the system is closed and self-referential. The government can commandeer physical resources anywhere where the currency is accepted, acceptance is forced by imposition of tax across the jurisdiction and it can’t escape anywhere else.
They can run out of physical resources, but not money.
They can run out of money. They just can’t run out of their own currency.
Many, many countries have run out of money – Zimbabwe is a recent example. They had plenty of currency but it lost all “money-ness”.
Posted by: Observer | Feb 27 2023 21:09 utc | 384