Ukraine Open Thread 2023-42
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Source: @KampfmitKette - bigger
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on February 20, 2023 at 15:44 UTC | Permalink
next page »The Russian troops almost have the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region operationally encircled. After this happens, Bakhmut will fall to the Russians soon after.
Bakhut is considered to be the linchpin of the Ukrainian defensive lines. After Bakhmut falls, the Ukrainian defense lines could rapidly crumble leading to a rout among the Ukrainian forces. This is yet to be determined.
What happens the few weeks after Bakhmut is operationally encircled and then encircled will be a good indicator of the timing of when all the Donbas will fall.
Whenever all of the Donbas falls to the Russians, I expect a Russian launch soon after against the USA.
Posted by: young | Feb 20 2023 15:58 utc | 2
Joe Biden arrives in Ukraine
rt.com/russia/571765-biden-arrives-ukraine-trip/
Posted by: GoverntheMente | Feb 20 2023 16:03 utc | 3
Qiiet before the storm? Little going on in most of the fronts, with the exception of clashes all across the entire Bakhmut area where Russian forces keep pounding, pounding. Instead of pressing on the more rural areas with everything they've got, there is still a strong drive going on upon the eastern half of the city itself. Weeb Union states that some of the major units of the Ukie army defending the pocket are down to ten percent of their effectives. Matter of time, I guess.
President Putin gives his major address tomorrow and in four days looms the anniversary of the SMO offensive. Most commentators predict heavy fireworks on that occasion.
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 20 2023 16:03 utc | 4
Krasnopol guided shell destroys AN/TPQ radar.
https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1627450470682746882
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 20 2023 16:18 utc | 5
From ZH
"We did notify the Russians that President Biden would be traveling to Kyiv. We did so some hours before his departure for deconfliction purposes," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told a press briefing.Sullivan didn't disclose what the immediate Moscow response was to the notification, but Sullivan stressed it was for security reasons. Of course, if during the time Biden was on the ground missiles had pummeled the capital, which though rare has happened on multiple occasions over the course of the one-year long war, this would have marked an act of war against the US from Washington's perspective.
"This was a historic visit, unprecedented in modern times, to have the president United States visit the capital of the country of war, where the United States military does not control the critical infrastructure," Sullivan said.
We are all Hollywood now
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 20 2023 16:19 utc | 6
great overview, especially the chapter on war crimes and propaganda: https://swprs.org/the-ukraine-war-in-2023/
Posted by: reader | Feb 20 2023 16:44 utc | 7
On the myth of Soviet "rusification of Ukraine" - https://t.me/ia_steklomoy/19680
Posted by: Arioch | Feb 20 2023 16:54 utc | 8
"Russian air force dropped bombs on Ukrainian positions in the Avdeevka industrial area
These were not some small FABs judging by the explosions. They likely were also guided bombs, which means a higher overflight, which again is an indication of degraded Ukrainian air defence"
https://twitter.com/RadarFennec/status/1627468721701650432?cxt=HHwWgICwgcCL95UtAAAA
Big if true.
Posted by: catdog | Feb 20 2023 17:10 utc | 9
So more full on evil and manipulations.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-out-topple-india-modi/5809241
Posted by: jpc | Feb 20 2023 17:10 utc | 10
@catdog / 9
Probably FAB-500 or the guided equivalent KAB-500.
Posted by: Verdant | Feb 20 2023 17:17 utc | 11
@Jacq | Feb 20 2023 16:53 utc | 7
That's another way of saying what I thought: Incoming false flag could be imminent ... (2 for one)
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2023 17:28 utc | 12
4 Corners, a long-running ABC.net.au/4corners investigative journalism program of mixed quality, broadcast a BBC 'imbedded' program last night, Feb 20. It followed a Ukie commander of his own gang of civilian troops looking for Russian targets.
It's called The People's Fight - The Battle For Kherson and covers a time scale from August to November 11 when Kherson was liberated. It runs for 45 minutes.
What made it interesting for me was the amateurish nature of the volunteers. I'm not convinced that they were capable of distinguishing Friend from Foe. It made me wonder how many Ukie casualties are the result of Friendly Fire.
4 Corners can be Googled.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 20 2023 17:28 utc | 13
Haven’t seen @Outraged post the daily ‘clobber list analysis for a couple of days.
As a partial substitution here’s today’s statement from the Russian Defence Ministry: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12455230@egNews
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operationThe Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, the artillery operations and active action of the 'Zapad' Group of Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of the enemy manpower and hardware near Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), Masyutovka, and Krakhmalnoye (Kharkov region).
Up to 50 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, and three motor vehicles have been eliminated.
In Krasny Liman direction, the aviation attacks, as well as firepower operations, conducted by the artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the 'Tsentr' Group of Forces, have resulted in the elimination of up to 100 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, two D-30 howitzers, and one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-37 counterbattery warfare radar near Yampolovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Stelmakhovka, and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic).
In Donetsk direction, the successful offensive operations, conducted by volunteers from assault detachments in cooperation with Airborne Troops' units, supported by firepower of the Missile Troops and Artillery of the 'Yug' Group of Forces, have resulted in the entire liberation of Paraskoviyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
The enemy has lost over 115 personnel, one infantry fighting vehicle, three armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, two Grad multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), one D-30 howitzer, one Rapira anti-tank gun, as well as one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar.
In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, Operational-Tactical Aviation and the artillery of the 'Vostok' Group of Forces have launched a complex fire attack against the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Ugledar, Dobrovolye (Donetsk People's Republic), Gulyaypole, and Yurkovka (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy has lost up to 60 personnel, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, one D-20 howitzer, and two D-30 howitzers in the abovementioned directions.
Three AFU ordnance depots have been destroyed near Malinovka (Zaporozhye region), Ugledar, and Vodyanoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
In Kherson direction, the firepower operations have resulted in the destruction of one Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer, one Giatsint towed howitzer, one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, and three D-30 howitzers.
One AFU ordnance depot has been neutralised near Kherson.
Army Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 98 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, as well as manpower and hardware in 124 areas.
Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down one Su-27 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Izyum (Kharkov region).
Air defence facilities have intercepted one rocket-propelled projectile, launched by HIMARS MLRS, and have destroyed 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Vladimirovka, Kolomyichikha, Zmiyevka, Rubezhnoye, Ploshchanka, Krasnorechenskoye, Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic), Yegorovka, Novoandreyevka, Volnovakha, Yelenovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Lesnoye (Zaporozhye region).
In total, 386 airplanes, 210 helicopters, 3,193 unmanned aerial vehicles, 405 air defence missile systems, 7,945 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,031 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,157 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 8,465 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.
I see mention of 325 Ukrainian personnel casualties across various locations. 14 howitzers/rocket launchers, 1 tank, 1 Su-27 among other losses. 4 ammunition depots taken out as well.
My overall impression is there is not much of a slackening off in tempo at the front line.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 17:42 utc | 15
@ Contributor 12:
Your entire argument rests upon your certainty that the Kakhovka dam could not have been sufficiently damaged to cause deadly flooding of Kherson.
Are you a structural engineer with knowledge of the exploaive power of specific munitions? I somehow doubt that.
Has it occurred to you that the RF MoD not only wanted to save civilians and troops from a flood and a forced withdrawal in the face of a flood, but also wanted to remove the incentive for NATO to destroy the dam, thus leaving it in place for the benefit of the people after the war?
Many commenters seem not to understand that this conflict has, so far, been primarily fought to reduce/destroy Ukrainian military capacity, not to gain/control territory.
Posted by: Ciaran | Feb 20 2023 17:43 utc | 16
Here’s Military Chronicle’s brief take on the ‘leader of the free world’ visiting Kiev (via Firefox Translate add-on):
Biden came by train to Kiev, because the Ukrainian air defense could have shot him down. . The old man was led around Khreshchatyk. The military commissars of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to hand him a summons, but the nimble old man ran away.
AP reports that shortly before Biden's visit, there was "communication with the Russians to ensure deconfliction."
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 17:59 utc | 17
Posted by: young | Feb 20 2023 15:58 utc | 2
The Russian conduct of the war is incomprehensible. They engage the enemy in every strong point head on turning village after village and town after town to heaps of rubble by fighting house to house in an area they intend to integrate into Russia.
In consequence they are moving into predictable areas where enemy artillery is zeroed in.
It is completely impossible to erect a defensive line along the entire width of the Ukraine. Therefore the Ukrainian defenses must have weak points which is where you punch through with tanks supported by infantry in a pincer movement and cut off the enemy in cauldrons. If the Russian armor cannot accomplish this it's useless since this is the primary purpose of armored columns.
This is more efficient and just as effective as "grinding down" the enemy in head on engagements since surrounded armies are doomed sooner or later when the supplies run out.
This is how the Russians won against the Germans in WWII. Some commentators (elsewhere) have made the case that this is no longer possible due to weapons developments. If that's the case every modern military sits on a pile of useless junk to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:04 utc | 18
I hope nobody is getting their hopes up for Putin's big speech to mark the start of anything exciting. The slow, boring grind will continue until the country formerly known as The Ukraine has no weapons left to hold the line.
Posted by: catdog | Feb 20 2023 18:05 utc | 19
[email protected] troll poo, careful where you step.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 20 2023 18:09 utc | 20
I awoke to find that President Biden had visited Zelenski in Kiev. Where the Hell is an Iskander missile when we really needed one?
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Feb 20 2023 18:10 utc | 21
I have the suspicion that NATO knows how to apply the principle by sun tzu: "Appear weak, when you are strong." The russians have to be careful...
On a sidenote, isn't it time to update the Slogan "Slava Ukraini!" to a newer, more modern and anglisized version, for modern audiences, to represent the world we live in today, which also mentions the role of NATO? Virtue signalling is quite important.
I would think that "Nato-slave Ukraine!" fits the bill, also in anticipation of the upcoming anniversary. Maybe someone can come up with a good reply.
Nato-slave Ukraine!
Posted by: MM | Feb 20 2023 18:13 utc | 22
@Elmer Fudd | Feb 20 2023 18:10 utc | 22
That is what Nuland would want by now, but not you and me.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2023 18:15 utc | 23
@MM
That would imply that at least one of the very intelligent people like baerbock and sullivan have ever read a book for adults.
Posted by: Orgel | Feb 20 2023 18:16 utc | 24
@Orgel
Both are just tools in the greater plan, one with more agency for more difficult work, others with no agency or talent for their supposed work. Others run different parts of the show, anyway this principle you might even get from something like "Sun Tzu for Dummies".
Posted by: MM | Feb 20 2023 18:23 utc | 25
https://t.me/azmilitary11/38417
🇺🇳🇺🇸🏴☠️💥🛢🇷🇺The UN Security Council agreed to hold a meeting on the explosions on the "Nord Streams" on Tuesday, February 21.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2023 18:27 utc | 26
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 17:42 utc | 16
You do understand that those "clobber lists" are entirely useless if not complemented by losses suffered and the flow of enemy resupplies?
The same stuff droned on during the Vietnam war. German weapons manufacturing was at maximum in 1944 amid sustained bombing campaigns by the allies.
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:29 utc | 27
In an interview aired on Feb 19th on RT, Seymour Hersh states his conviction that Washington will never, never "surrender", by which he means: admit to its role in the pipeline sabotage. And all the major players in the energy business will join this type of "Omerta" for fear of losing business, even though they all know the truth. The US-logic is thus: Truth is of minor importance as long as the business world acknowledges US power in all those areas where it matters (and translates into money). And whoever dares to openly dissent can easily be marginalized.
Which had me thinking how this logic of "might makes right" can be effectively undermined. So here is my idea: Rename one of the major streets or squares in Berlin, close to the government district, into "Lüge des 26. September" (the lie of September 26 [2022, the date of the pipelines' destruction]). It will soon become an attraction, and all foreign guests of Germany will know what it means, while they are travelling past this spot.
Sensitive as they are in Washington toward everything affecting prestige and PR, they will not be able to sit back and ignore this move. Much less if other countries, like Hungary, should follow suit and also rename an item.
However, for Germany to take such action, would require another chancellor. Scholz
is way too anxious about his own career. He does not deserve to represent our country.
Posted by: grunzt | Feb 20 2023 18:31 utc | 28
The Russian conduct of the war is incomprehensible.
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:04 utc | 19
Depends on what you believe Russia’s goals are. If we keep in mind the publicly-stated twin aims of demilitarisation and deNazification then their approach makes much more sense.
My own theory is that Russia does not (yet) seek to provoke a wholesale collapse of the Ukrainian military, as this will make the twin aims unachievable. Just imagine, for a moment, the utterly chaotic situation of mass surrenders and mass abandoning of posts; Russia would then be faced with thousands of troops, untold amounts of small- and medium-sized arms and, most importantly of all, thousands of Nazis and their acolytes all melting away into the countryside.
We then have the classic set-up for guerilla warfare, with the West, especially the Mighty Wurlitzer, cheering on the “plucky resistance fighters standing up to the big, bad, Bear”. I believe Russia factored this possible outcome into their planning and operation, hence the current approach.
This is the first time I’ve put this theory ‘out there’ so fully expect to be yelled at.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 18:31 utc | 29
I don't think Ukraine is well suited to a protracted guerrilla war. Rice paddies? Not so much. Especially if they end up landlocked and completely dependent on Russia for port shipping. Even North Vietnam had to back off after the US concentrated on Haiphong.
I can see that Russia would want a government that can sign capitulation documents but that's a long way off. Meanwhile, the only way to get to an end of the war is the elimination of Ukrainian males. Sadly, if both sides see the struggle as existential, then it goes on until Ukraine is functionally gone as Russia is very likely to win at the attrition game. They are playing 'rope a dope' with Ukraine and waiting for the late rounds to finish them off. Hey, it worked for Muhammed Ali.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2023 18:41 utc | 30
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:04 utc | 19
... If that's the case every modern military sits on a pile of useless junk to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Bingo.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 20 2023 18:43 utc | 31
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2023 18:41 utc | 31
They are playing 'rope a dope' with Ukraine and waiting for the late rounds to finish them off. Hey, it worked for Muhammed Ali.
You can't call it "rope a dope" if it's Ukraine/NATO that's always on the ropes.
Unless it's NATO that's actually playing rope a dope ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 20 2023 18:47 utc | 32
Germany is finished. Minister of foreign affairs Baerbock, when visiting a bunker in Finland, took a delight in some lines drawn on the floors and spontaneously fell into a game of hopscotch.
Given the context this calls for immediate replacement and a psychiatric examination. However the chancellor cannot bring himself to do this (or much of anything else) and the contemptible FDP party remains in the coalition.
The media continue to inflate Baerbock ("the most admired German politician") and the hapless minister of the economy Habeck ("the second most admired German politician"). These findings are based on unspecified polls. They do this without irony or any appreciation how insulting this is to the German population.
Some time ago a report by the RAND corporation was published entitled "Weaking Germany" (or similar) pointing to the usefulness of cutting off Germany from Russian gas supplies as this was sure to degrade the economic prospects of the country to a degree to which many enterprising and intelligent Germans will find it necessary to emigrate - the only reasonable destination being the United States of America.
Funnily the report also stated the current German government made such a plan especially feasible particularly because of the Green politicians "whose personal characteristics" made it impossible for them to take appropriate action in a timely manner.
The report was dismissed as a "conspiracy theory". maybe so, but every word in it is true and I can only warmly recommend to every intelligent and enterprising German to take the advice.
Intelligence is still valued in the US.
Germany is becoming the laughing stock of the entire world.
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:53 utc | 33
I understand that biden Brave Sir Robin survived a Russian air raid while he was visiting keev Kie-ev.
How convenient for him. A distinguished service cross or should we go right to the medal of honor.
Choices choices,
hmmmm
Posted by: T.D. | Feb 20 2023 19:00 utc | 34
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2023 18:41 utc | 31
Well, regarding "guerrilla" war, the longer the "front war" goes on, and especially the longer front doesn't move, the less potential there is for "guerrilla" war. There will be a longer time to root out Nato terrorists on the territory already held, and on the other hand, the would-be trained guerrilla fighters will with higher chance end up in the front as trench placeholders.
Will there be terrorist attacks, yes there will, but less compared to situation if more territory would be overrun in a shorter amount of time.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 20 2023 19:00 utc | 35
strikethrough doesnt work. My sarcasm is lost to the ages.
sigh...
Posted by: T.D. | Feb 20 2023 19:01 utc | 36
On his New Atlas site, Brian Berletic presented the longest episode I have seen to date. Primarily, he pointed at the NeoCons and their Project for a New American Century (PNAC). Most posters here will be well acquainted with those basics. So where did this group of mostly Khazarian Talmudist Imperialists, get the kind of agency which created an American foreign policy of something like seven countries in seven years?
In other words, we must ask ourselves what engine drives this train of proposed events, several of which...Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya eventuated in invasions and destruction by U$$A military forces. The central questions are WHY and to whose advantage...Cui Bono.
Perhaps in order to protect his ability to post his messages, Berletic never draws out the logical conclusions. So I'll post the probable scenario. Informed individuals well understand that the "Federal" Reserve Bank has been since its 1913 inception, a wholly owned, private control matrix over the U.S. government, economy and mass media. Those who call the shots are not many in number, but as dominant interests in institutions worth literally many trillions of dollars.
Therefore, we must look to the Rottenchild Bank and the Bank of England, one dominating the other and both located in City of London. As fellow Talmudist operatives, the Neocons are totally in accord with their Tribalist brothers, subcutaneously issuing orders from their international stronghold.
It's all quite obvious if you think about it. There IS an agenda and the U$$A regime has no agency. Those administrative bureaucrats simply follow orders. Top down control matrix.
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 20 2023 19:03 utc | 37
You do understand that those "clobber lists" are entirely useless if not complemented by losses suffered and the flow of enemy resupplies?
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:29 utc | 28
Er... yeah... OK... So you read a daily summary of football scores and expect a full match report with each one?
That’s all these summaries are, a somewhat macabre scoreboard. A snapshot taken from one angle. Nevertheless they provide useful information about the continuing attrition of Ukrainian forces and equipment; this, in turn, highlights how negligible the promised NATO contributions are when compared to the daily rate of losses.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 19:04 utc | 38
still wondering what objectives of the SMO are , de-nazification demilitarisation you will say, so far so good, even with the newly mobilized troops russia still not have ressources to achieve this goals imo.
maybe after breaking through the 4th or 5th defense line, russian troops will make it to the Dnepr but then whats next ?
ukrainian troops will retreat behind the Dnepr which is easier to defend,US/NATO will keep pouring weapons into west ukraine and russia has still the same problems as before the start of the SMO, on top what about Kharkov , Odessa ?
@31 of course Ukraine is prepared for a guerilla warfare the strategy is called Resistance Operating Concept, long time implemented and planned by the US.
Posted by: disorder | Feb 20 2023 19:15 utc | 39
If the point of the SMO was to kill tens of thousands of Russians & Ukrainians while producing no visible military gains all at great economic and political cost, then it has been nothing but a smashing success!!!
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Feb 20 2023 19:19 utc | 40
Reply to : bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:04 utc | 19
The Russian conduct of the war is incomprehensible. They engage the enemy in every strong point head on turning village after village and town after town to heaps of rubble by fighting house to house in an area they intend to integrate into Russia.
We're watching an evolution in warfare as great as that of WWII. It's only incomprehensible if your thinking is stuck in the past. Your second point here is a valid observation, but perhaps you need to step back and look at the larger view.
It is completely impossible to erect a defensive line along the entire width of the Ukraine. Therefore the Ukrainian defenses must have weak points which is where you punch through with tanks supported by infantry in a pincer movement and cut off the enemy in cauldrons. If the Russian armor cannot accomplish this it's useless since this is the primary purpose of armored columns.
Again, this is a different way of war, changing before our eyes. Just as WWII was a tank war on land and a carrier war at sea, radically different than military planning of the 30s, this is a radically different war than almost everyone envisioned 5 years ago, and radically different than most people can grasp even as it plays out right in front of us.
This is how the Russians won against the Germans in WWII. Some commentators (elsewhere) have made the case that this is no longer possible due to weapons developments. If that's the case every modern military sits on a pile of useless junk to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:04 utc | 19
Different strategic goals, different world circumstances. Tanks can't be fully armored everywhere .. they all have weak points .. in Russia's case, their weak point is apparently from above ... a critical weakness in a war of precision attacks from above ... so they must either eliminate the US/NATO eyes in the sky or eliminate the Ukrainian capacity for precision strikes from above.
Right or wrong, Russia has chosen NOT to escalate the conflict by expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine's borders, thus limiting the use of those armored columns. There is probably another reason, as well ... ask why most of Russia's military capability is apparently sitting quietly in reserve, while the mercenaries and militias do most of the blood and guts fighting.
Their strategy, thus far, seems effective, even if it doesn't meet action movie expectations of massive armies on the move, conquering large swaths of territory, with amazing pyrotechnics and war porn for your entertainment.
Posted by: The Owl | Feb 20 2023 19:25 utc | 41
Very good laymen’s description of reserve currency status and how it is wrecked by a establishment fund manager
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/how-a-country-loses-its-currency-reserve-status/
BTW - Moscow’s goals were clearly laid out in the Dec 21 Peace Treaty Proposal.
Posted by: Exile | Feb 20 2023 19:29 utc | 42
@ grunzt | Feb 20 2023 18:31 utc | 29
who can replace olaf scholz??
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 19:34 utc | 43
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 19:34 utc | 44
haha no its too funny not to remember who the chancellor is at all :D
Posted by: Macpott | Feb 20 2023 19:42 utc | 44
reply to 43
There are a number of 'experts' who bristle at the thought of the US losing reserve status, as if it's simply unthinkable. I question that.
I think the yuan could emerge as a reserve currency in regard to currency swaps. A nation sells them minerals and gets yuan in return. It sits in an account until that nation decides to spend it on Chinese goods. The advantage is that China produces so many manufactured goods that the yuan is easily spent on things actually needed. Perhaps this does not include holding Chinese bonds ( by analogy with the US) but it still involves a currency held in reserve.
I also wonder what might happen if the dollar gets pushed well below 50% in global trade or as a reserve. At that point, I would think nations would have lots of leverage over the US because they can freely choose dollars or not, with little inconvenience to themselves. So, the dollar wouldn't have to be eliminated as in reserves, just forced into competition 'to behave'.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2023 19:56 utc | 45
[sigh]
All those jumping up and down about Russian tactics and strategy being wrong, think about this: if your house had an infestation of termites, or fleas, or rats, you would take the time necessary to methodically and thoroughly eliminate the infestation, because if you are not thorough and methodical, the infestation will re-emerge.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 20:00 utc | 46
Germany is finished. Minister of foreign affairs Baerbock, when visiting a bunker in Finland, took a delight in some lines drawn on the floors and spontaneously fell into a game of hopscotch.
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:53 utc | 34
Unbelievable.... her dumbness is absolutely mindboggling.
I had seen an article about her visit to a Finnish bunker and I wondered about the picture, on which she seemed to jump.
But I soon dismissed the strange picture as unimportant.
I hadn't heard that she played hopscotch in the bunker, until now!
What makes it doubly tasteless to do that in a bunker, is the German name of that game: Himmel und Hölle, or in English: Heaven and Hell.
Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Feb 20 2023 20:00 utc | 47
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 19:34 utc | 44
who can replace olaf scholz??
It's not hard to find people who might do a better job - thinking of Armin Laschet, Sarah Wagenknecht, even Saskia Esken would be a better choice - but they are in a comparatively bad position. Closer to the power is sitting Friedrich Merz, but he is even more of a nightmare than Scholz.
Posted by: grunzt | Feb 20 2023 20:06 utc | 48
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 20 2023 19:03 utc | 38
The history of Jewish bankers influencing Western politics goes back at least to Elizabethan England, Robert Cecil and the Jews of Amsterdam.
The Khazarian control of Western banking and Khazarian control of US foreign policy are both well established facts. Although I am convinced the link exists, it is establishing the link between them that seems to be elusive.
The most recent evidence of such a link of which I am aware is through the Warburgs, Max and Paul, both bankers and both of whom had significant influence on the the Treaty of Versailles, Max from the German side and Paul from the American.
Posted by: Ciaran | Feb 20 2023 20:07 utc | 49
My own theory is that Russia does not (yet) seek to provoke a wholesale collapse of the Ukrainian military, as this will make the twin aims unachievable. Just imagine, for a moment, the utterly chaotic situation of mass surrenders and mass abandoning of posts; Russia would then be faced with thousands of troops, untold amounts of small- and medium-sized arms and, most importantly of all, thousands of Nazis and their acolytes all melting away into the countryside.
We then have the classic set-up for guerilla warfare, with the West, especially the Mighty Wurlitzer, cheering on the “plucky resistance fighters standing up to the big, bad, Bear”. I believe Russia factored this possible outcome into their planning and operation, hence the current approach.
This is the first time I’ve put this theory ‘out there’ so fully expect to be yelled at.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 18:31 utc | 30
--------------------------------------------
I think you are right West. I tried to pull these, and other quotes up on three major News Sites, but everything is locked behind a paywall.... everything.
Got this, from Times of India (01/14/2022). But you have to go there to read it, twitter.
Both Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, ch ..
Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/88905046.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Posted by: Ed | Feb 20 2023 20:09 utc | 50
Helmuth @ 48. Actually that kind of behavior is considered cool by younger voters. The Finnish prime minister is something of a party girl herself.
Posted by: dh | Feb 20 2023 20:15 utc | 51
@ grunzt | Feb 20 2023 20:06 utc | 49
thanks.. it sounds as though there will be no change.. or any change will be more of the same... it is most unfortunate.. you might enjoy reading the article i linked to @ 15... it goes into germanys relationship with poland.. cheers..
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 20:17 utc | 52
An apparantly official chinese report about "U.S. Hegemony and Its Perils" was published today, with these promising headlines:
I. Political Hegemony – Throwing Its Weight Around
II. Military Hegemony – Wanton Use of Force
III. Economic Hegemony – Looting and Exploitation
IV. Technological Hegemony – Monopoly and Suppression
V. Cultural Hegemony – Spreading False Narratives
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-02-20/U-S-Hegemony-and-Its-Perils-1hzPTDFI8KI/index.html
According to the book America Invades: How We've Invaded or been Militarily Involved with almost Every Country on Earth, the United States has fought or been militarily involved with almost all the 190-odd countries recognized by the United Nations with only three exceptions. The three countries were "spared" because the United States did not find them on the map.
And so on, and so on. Plain text, throughout!
Posted by: Udkanten | Feb 20 2023 20:18 utc | 53
southern usa folklore:
in a corner of the woods off the lane, by the large black pond, brer fox and brer bear were persistently looking for some chance to have brer rabbit for dinner.
one morning brer fox gathered up some tar and a bit of turpentine and kneaded a tar baby and put it in some nazi clothes like might rile up brer rabbit.
it happened about noon that brer rabbit comes across the enticingly clothed tar baby, he begins to make conversation, the tar baby says nothing, after a while brer rabbit gets incensed with the uncooperative tar baby.....
so brer rabbit takes and punches the tar baby, his paw gets stuck so he hits it with the other.... after a bit of wrastlin brer rabbit is stuck to the tar baby and makes quite a commotion about minsk and all!
along come brer fox and brer bear....... they see this as their chance to have brer rabbit for dinner.
after a bit of senseless negotiating brer rabbit says: 'do anything you please to me but don't throw me in that there briar patch......
brer fox being so pleased with himself in catching brer rabbit with the tar baby loses sight of dinner being not so smart and throws brer rabbit in the briar patch..... we all know how rabbits do in briar patches and brer rabbit escapes to beard brer fox and brer bear another day.
in the tale brer fox is the neocon blob, brer bear are the fools ruled by the blob and brer rabbit is putin. the briar patch is attrition war beyond the end of the blob's supply lines which is not so easily filled.
will brer fox and brer bear wade into the briar patch?
Posted by: paddy | Feb 20 2023 20:21 utc | 54
@49:grunzt
Scholz is doing a pretty good job.
Breaking all the time without appearing to act from forcefull opposition.
Baerbock and Habeck he is saddled with.
Having that lady oaff as Defence minister was another gambit at dragging feet.
Pistorius is a lot more competent but afaics in character with Scholz.
Imagine the pressure applied from all sides ( press, opposition, .. )
they have to work with.
Back in Vietnam war times pressure from the US to "militarily help" was morphed into sending that hospital ship Helgoland to Vietnames coast.
Posted by: MAKK | Feb 20 2023 20:22 utc | 55
This article on current trends in Georgia should be of interest.
https://journal-neo.org/2023/02/20/why-is-washington-replacing-georgia-s-overseer-kelly-degnan/
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 20:23 utc | 56
If the point of the SMO was to kill tens of thousands of Russians & Ukrainians while producing no visible military gains all at great economic and political cost, then it has been nothing but a smashing success!!!
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Feb 20 2023 19:19 utc | 41
---------------------------------------
Noam, you should put your ideas into print and get them to Putin and the MoA ASAP. I am sure they sing your praise throughout Russia if you could just show them the way. I wonder what you recommend: WW3 and full nuclear Armageddon? Whatever, it must be something really brilliant since no one in Russia has thought of it.
Truly Noam, you must be the next Sun Tzu or Carl Von Clausewitz.
Posted by: Ed | Feb 20 2023 20:30 utc | 57
@16, WoE andy, thank you for the update...i too have missed outraged & hope he's well & simply taking time to recharge. i can't remember where i may've glimpsed (possibly a link @ globalsouth.co or possibly moa) some kind & well informed commenter linked an article on transnistria & its huge cache of weapons (a years worth!), which apparently the ukraine's or nato are attempting to surround. it was late, i oughtn't to have been still reading...if you, andy, or any other barfly have information on this. please, fill me in. in my sleepy state i remember thinking nato could see this cache as the gift its been seeking & that surely mother would be securing it, either with wagner's ring or an elite rf. sending a missile would be counterproductive @ least in mho. i rarely post, read & read, thank you, karl, psycho, bevin, outraged (wherever you are), james, hermit, & most especially b. b, your archive is a treasure.
Posted by: emersonreturn | Feb 20 2023 20:34 utc | 58
(reply to #47)
Exactly, Andy. But to the armchair quarterbacks here, if you didn't quickly burn the entire house to the ground, you would have no visible results.
Posted by: JT | Feb 20 2023 20:58 utc | 59
Posted by: Ed | Feb 20 2023 20:09 utc | 51
Thanks for that link. Makes me wonder if the West was secretly hoping for a massive Russian onslaught, then they could implement their insurgency plans.
Posted by: emersonreturn | Feb 20 2023 20:34 utc | 59
Now you mention it, I remember reading something similar about Transnistria, though damned if I can remember where... possibly at The Saker? One of the guest posters there, maybe?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 20 2023 20:59 utc | 60
time to update the Slogan "Slava Ukraini!" to a newer, more modern and anglisized version, for modern audiences, to represent the world we live in today, which also mentions the role of NATO?
Posted by: MM | Feb 20 2023 18:13 utc | 23
ICYMI, Advantage Ukraine, 6 Sep 2022
• Bloomberg | President H.E. Volodymyr Zelenskyy rings bell at NYSE to signify Ukraine is open for business
• Ukraine PFTS Index, 1Y-10Y trend (404)
• NYSE listed non-US issuers (404)
• List of Ukraine ADRs Trading on Major US Stock Exchanges & the Over-the-Counter (OTC) Exchange (404)
• Largest Ukrainian (PFTS) Stocks by Market Cap (404)
• NYSE listed non-US issuers (404)
Posted by: sln2002 | Feb 20 2023 21:01 utc | 61
Just a question about the biden visit today
a heavy american military column just got in and out
Some message had to be delivered I guess? I mean if even the russians agreed...
Posted by: Macpott | Feb 20 2023 21:04 utc | 62
@ Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 20 2023 17:28 utc | 14
Reminds me, I have just recently watched Fadeev and Belous' documentary Ghosts, about the Lugansk front prior to the Biden "up-tick," several times, and like others recommend it highly.
Absorbing, inspiring, and sad.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JOhu_3Bipog
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 20 2023 21:05 utc | 63
Posted by: MAKK | Feb 20 2023 20:22 utc | 56
Scholz is doing a pretty good job.
Scholz has chosen a variant that makes us the only supplier of heavy tanks - while other nations seemed to join in, they've all pulled back, more or less openly. So why does Scholz stay in the game, doesn't he see how he's being played for a fool?
Why is he silent with respect to NS2 and Hersh's article - joining the Omerta, which only helps the country that Putin aptly calls the "Empire of Lies". There must be more of a debate, discussion on the subject. I posted a related idea in @29.
Annalena Baerbock has had strategic discussions with our western "partners" behind his back - encouraging them to put more pressure on him in the tank question. Scholz is said to have been furious - so why is she still in office?
Posted by: grunzt | Feb 20 2023 21:06 utc | 64
Therefore, we must look to the Rottenchild Bank and the Bank of England, one dominating the other and both located in City of London. As fellow Talmudist operatives, the Neocons are totally in accord with their Tribalist brothers, subcutaneously issuing orders from their international stronghold.Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 20 2023 19:03 utc | 38
Perhaps you can strengthen your case by identifying the Talmudists among this motley crew for us, since I can't spot one. Nor any affiliations with the the Rothschild Bank, who are not in the 100 largest in the world, nor among the top 15 in the UK.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/governors
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/court-of-directors
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 20 2023 21:07 utc | 65
@ Contributor | Feb 20 2023 17:22 utc | 12
there were no good excuses for pulling out of Kherson
Wrong. Russia went 'a bridge too far.' When the bridges (highway, railroad, and near dam) were destroyed the ground forces couldn't be properly supported logistically, especially for offensive operations. In fact opinions that Russia should withdraw were heard in Summer, and they waited until November, fortunate to get away with it.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 21:14 utc | 66
@Eighthman | 46
Loosing reserve status would ultimately be a blessing for most Americans. Neither China nor Russia wish to suffer the consequences of becoming the Reserve Currency.
The privilege reserve status gives us is the ability to borrow almost unlimited amounts at relatively low cost. The price of that privilege is that we have to supply increasing amounts of USD to our overseas clients. Inevitably this means we have to run larger and larger trade deficits. The only way our overseas clients can get USD is by our buying their production and paying them USD. Over time this means the accounting pressure is for the US to produce less and less of what it consumes and all that production moves offshore.
The consequence is that we tend to live on increasing amounts of credit with less and less ability to produce the stuff we consume.
Having Reserve status, like a great credit score is a great privilege that only the virtuous can afford otherwise it will destroy you.
Posted by: Dan Farrand | Feb 20 2023 21:16 utc | 67
Posted by: grunzt | Feb 20 2023 21:06 utc | 64
You clearly are from the USA or maybe UK. Governments in functioning democracies do not work that way. Schotz is Chancellor because of a coalition, in which the green party and others have a major say. he does not have the power to sack her.
Now he probably should be brave, resign and have another election - it would be the brave thing to do, but he is not brave.
Posted by: watcher | Feb 20 2023 21:19 utc | 68
Air raid sirens sound each time a foreign politician - Scholz, Von der Leyen, Biden - visits Kiev.
Now, when Biden goes to Kiev, Ukraine, the White House talks to the Russians first.
“We did notify the Russians that President Biden will be travelling to Kyiv,” Sullivan said. “We did so some hours before his departure"
Why are the air raid sirens blaring, when the Russians are not bombing Kiev?
Posted by: Passerby | Feb 20 2023 21:23 utc | 69
Passerby no. 69
The military band was otherwise engaged.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Feb 20 2023 21:25 utc | 70
Ciaran@17
Thanks..
In addition, loss of the dam would have threatened the water supply to the canal (upstream of the dam) that provides water to the Kherson region and Crimea. Google maps show extensive agriculture in Kherson East of the Dnieper river.
Posted by: Krollchem | Feb 20 2023 21:27 utc | 71
Unless it's NATO that's actually playing rope a dope ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 20 2023 18:47 utc | 33
That'd be pretty difficult given the fact that many if not most of NATO's weapons makers, especially the American ones, are publicly traded companies with balance sheets and production numbers readily visible to those who know where (or in some cases, are allowed) to look. They're doing a helluva job concealing the massive production increases and shipments of modern armaments to the Ukro-Nazis if so.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 20 2023 21:33 utc | 72
Absorbing, inspiring, and sad.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JOhu_3Bipog
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 20 2023 21:05 utc | 63
The video you linked to doesn't match your description. Honest mistake? NAFOBRO propaganda?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 20 2023 21:38 utc | 73
"It is completely impossible to erect a defensive line along the entire width of the Ukraine. Therefore the Ukrainian defenses must have weak points which is where you punch through with tanks supported by infantry in a pincer movement and cut off the enemy in cauldrons. If the Russian armor cannot accomplish this it's useless since this is the primary purpose of armored columns."
This is an intelligent comment. I also find it weird that the Russians keep attacking into the strongest points in the Ukrainian defenses. Is the senior Russian leadership really that stupid? Perhaps.
But I do point out that the major strength of the Ukrainians has been the almost God-like surveillance capability of the western powers - which Russia can't do anything about. Ukraine is literally under a microscope, and any Russian attempt at maneuvering to find a weak spot will be spotted even before it begins to attack, and then cut to pieces with precisely targeted strikes. In this case perhaps all Russia can do is just pound away and hope to attrit the Ukrainians to death. Though as a non-professional subject to the same utterly corrupt western press as everyone else, I could easily be wrong.
Posted by: TG | Feb 20 2023 21:39 utc | 74
Your entire argument rests upon your certainty that the Kakhovka dam could not have been sufficiently damaged to cause deadly flooding of Kherson.Are you a structural engineer with knowledge of the exploaive power of specific munitions? I somehow doubt that.
Has it occurred to you that the RF MoD not only wanted to save civilians and troops from a flood and a forced withdrawal in the face of a flood, but also wanted to remove the incentive for NATO to destroy the dam, thus leaving it in place for the benefit of the people after the war?
Many commenters seem not to understand that this conflict has, so far, been primarily fought to reduce/destroy Ukrainian military capacity, not to gain/control territory.
Posted by: Ciaran | Feb 20 2023 17:43 utc | 17
The dam situation was very straightforward to deal with -- you give them an ultimatum that if they do something so stupid, then Bankova street will be immediately leveled and the whole leadership, no matter what bunkers it sits in, will be taken out by missile strikes.
Was that even attempted? No, instead Zelensky is free to visit the frontline any time he wishes even though the Ukronazis are now using chemical weapons on top of all the countless atrocities they have committed, i.e. if Zelensky was ever to face the equivalent of a Nuremberg trial, it would be an automatic death sentence without any hesitation. Zaluzhny too, together with several hundred others.
But the life of the dear partners is apparently more valuable than that of the Russian soldier...
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 20 2023 21:40 utc | 75
Really Arestodemos @38, for all the philosophical erudition you frequently display at this bar, do you really think the leaders of your favorite conspiracy transmit orders “subcutaneously” [from under the skin, literally]. I think you may have meant ‘subterraneously’? Perhaps. In any case, that financial interests exercise inordinate influence is an idea common to many from Marx to any political scientist or economist one could name. I agree with this, but not with your unproven thesis that some tiny minority of a religious group of only 15 million in the world somehow controls the entire financial industry when 99.99% of those millions work in every other occupation under the sun. Anglicans, Swiss, Germans, Lebanese, the Vatican and more lately Panamanians, not to mention WASPs like the Bush family, all play prominent roles in the international financial system. That’s the point really, it’s a system, not the conspiracy of a select few….
Posted by: mjh | Feb 20 2023 21:49 utc | 76
Posted by: TG | Feb 20 2023 21:39 utc | 74
It was noted in one of the articles by "Simplicus", the way to counter US satellites is just destroy the artillery and radar systems. If that can be achieved, the superior of satellites becomes much less relevant and useful. Sure, USA might still know of some likelihood of an attack in one place, but can't do anything to prevent it.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 20 2023 21:50 utc | 77
Germany is finished. Minister of foreign affairs Baerbock, when visiting a bunker in Finland, took a delight in some lines drawn on the floors and spontaneously fell into a game of hopscotch.
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:53 utc | 34
Hard to believe, or incomplete. I would expect PM of Finland to join. Perhaps she had to be elsewhere...
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 20 2023 21:52 utc | 78
@T.D. | Feb 20 2023 19:00 utc | 35
Intelligence has never been admired in the USA, and education is regarded with the deepest suspicion. The only reason the USA has not yet fallen apart is the floods of educated immigrants fooled by Hollywood into imagining that a failing 3rd world country with a collapsing economy, failed infrastructure and falling life expectancy is a good place to which to move.
They will learn better. For some it may not be too late.
"I came to America because of the great, great freedom which I heard existed in this country. I made a mistake in selecting America as a land of freedom, a mistake I cannot repair in the balance of my lifetime." Albert Einstein
Posted by: Hermit | Feb 20 2023 21:53 utc | 79
"It is completely impossible to erect a defensive line along the entire width of the Ukraine. Therefore the Ukrainian defenses must have weak points which is where you punch through with tanks supported by infantry in a pincer movement and cut off the enemy in cauldrons. If the Russian armor cannot accomplish this it's useless since this is the primary purpose of armored columns."This is an intelligent comment. I also find it weird that the Russians keep attacking into the strongest points in the Ukrainian defenses. Is the senior Russian leadership really that stupid? Perhaps.
I am waiting and hoping for Putin to prove the opposite tomorrow and in the days and months after that.
But the available evidence from the last one (plus 8) year(s) points to the inescapable conclusion that the fifth column is still in power in Russia and that we are headed towards another act of high treason as happened in the 1980s.
There is no other conceivable explanation for how the war has been fought.
Since 2014 in fact.
Back then Putin vetoed taking over more territory and after that allowed the Donbass to be fortified as it is now.
Because why fight and inevitable existential war when you have an overwhelming advantage if you can fight it later when your enemy has been rearmed to the teeth and it will be a bloodbath?
Eight years later and the lesson has not been learned -- multiple goodwill gestures while allowing the whole border to be fortified. And then dumb frontal assaults against the most fortified points.
Who fights like that if his goal is to actually win?
The border wasn't totally mined and fortified even a few months ago, but there was never any attempt to exploit that. And now it will be hell to advance, anywhere. But of course even then it will be done in the most idiotic way possible once again, as in Ugledar.
But I do point out that the major strength of the Ukrainians has been the almost God-like surveillance capability of the western powers - which Russia can't do anything about. Ukraine is literally under a microscope, and any Russian attempt at maneuvering to find a weak spot will be spotted even before it begins to attack, and then cut to pieces with precisely targeted strikes. In this case perhaps all Russia can do is just pound away and hope to attrit the Ukrainians to death. Though as a non-professional subject to the same utterly corrupt western press as everyone else, I could easily be wrong. Posted by: TG | Feb 20 2023 21:39 utc | 74
Russia has the technical means to disable Western ISR.
It could have used those but again, what do you expect when the fifth column is running things?
P.S. The even bigger danger is that the same pattern will repeat itself on a grander scale. In 2026 there will be US hypersonic weapons in Finland, the Baltics, Poland, and Ukraine, i.e. the brief moment of military superiority will have been squandered, and the Kremlin will still be talking about respect for the dear partners...
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 20 2023 21:55 utc | 80
It is clear from the trolls' signals today, that the immediate and desperate aim of the imperialists is to sow dissent among ordinary Russians by suggesting that the Kremlin is callous in its disregard of the lives of the soldiery.
For a long time the strategy has been to cultivate the liberal, urban middle class to rebuild them into a Fifth Column sabotaging Russian aims. Now the imperialists realise that their identification with this Fifth Column of Westernisers has been self defeating-the more the intellectuals criticise Putin the more popular he becomes among the working people.
It is that popularity that our trolls are aiming at- the old refrains that Putin is incompetent, that the government is insufficiently ruthless have diminished in intensity. Now the message is that the Kremlin, the MoD and the Generals have aims of their own and are careless with the lives of conscripted cannon fodder, Chechens and Wagner forces alike.
The aim being the very opposite of what is called for-the trolls don't want a more ruthless strategy, they want the fall of the government and the empowering of those ready to sell out their country for dollars and euros, not to mention the dubious privilege of being patronised by the friends of Navalny, the sponsors of Zelensky and the likes of Biden and Nuland.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 21:58 utc | 81
# 79. That cut is so fine&sharp, it’s barely visible. Until you split the cut apart, and it’s deep to the bone.
Posted by: Dingo | Feb 20 2023 22:12 utc | 82
@ shadowbanned 80
I agree. Strelkov was right: it was in 2014 that the banderists had to be demolished, not now.
Instead, Putin wanted, as usual, to spare everyone hoping for some act of goodwill from the West and respect for the word given to the Minsk Accords. He left Mariupol in the hands of these savages and millions of Russians and Ukrainians delivered to the genocidaires and waited eight years (EIGHT YEARS DAMN IT!!!) to finally recognize the suffering endured, all because he eventually realized that there was no goodwill to be expected from those scumbags and that his precious Crimean Bridge and Sevastopol base were threatened. Western leaders are ideologues and rotten people, MSM are pure instruments of propaganda, western populations are zombified. Why try to justify yourself? Why treat them as equals? Why spare them?
Sorry Putinists gentlemen : I have seen your arguments and they hardly convince me. I remind you that Dombass children are still dying under the missiles of the banderistes. How can we claim we are winning if we are not able to avoid at least that after a year?? Why waiting more ? So yes, I am saying that if Russia is unable to win, at least lose with dignity by make fly nuclear missiles.
Well, Putin is a jurist and a Christian, not a politician. He arrived in Yeltsin's suitcases (really not a good business card) and took advantage of good oil and gas prices to give himself a reputation as a (false) tough guy. However the world is not made by jurists and Christians. It is made by sharks, ideologues and communicators. Putin has none of his characteristics and he or whatever you call the Power That Be in Russia won't even be able to have that basic dignity to destroy the West since it let Russia be destroyed.
Posted by: America is defeated | Feb 20 2023 22:32 utc | 83
The Russian conduct of the war is incomprehensible.
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:04 utc | 19
Not incomprehensible to me.
Posted by: Haassaan | Feb 20 2023 22:33 utc | 84
Russia finds continued success around Bakhmut. Operational encirclement.
However, Ukraine drives back Russia army south of Vuhledar. I wonder how Russia will adapt to Ukraine successful Vuhledar counter attack? Is it a Russian trap? Or, did West satellites spot Russian weak spot and order Ukraine to exploit?
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Feb 20 2023 22:35 utc | 85
The morons here criticizing the Russian military leadership need to read this piece (in Russian) which b referenced in his previous article (bolding is mine)
Written by Alexandr Rogers here:
https://alexandr-rogers.livejournal.com/1639331.html
The great (without a shadow of a doubt) Brusilov once wrote, describing the situation on the eve of the First World War, that (I quote from memory, not verbatim, but in meaning) "In eight years, six heads of the General Staff were replaced – it was a catastrophe."For a person who understands how complex systems are arranged and how difficult it is to manage them, everything is clear here. Indeed, a disaster.
If you ask "Can you head the ministry?", then any fool will instantly say "Yes! Of course! I'm his one left." Because he doesn't understand the complexity of these processes.
I'd say, "Maybe we should take a look."
Moreover, if they demanded reforms from the air, from the first day, I would advise them to turn to the fool, to the nearest one.
Because there normally only in the course of affairs you need to enter a few months. At least two months, realistically - up to six months. Laws, regulations, internal orders on the ministry, document management, structure, personnel, finance, mathematical support and so on.
And all the time while you enter the course, act on the principle of "works - do not touch".
And only then, when you have thoroughly studied everything, you can slowly begin to optimize and rebuild. And first on paper, in the form of plans and projects, and only then to implement something.
Here, even at the level of some computer grid (if it is more complex than a class of 6-10 computers), you need to delve into the current device, what tasks need to be solved, what cash is available for this, what you need to buy, what protocols to use, and so on.
The ministry, as you can guess, will be more complicated than a computer network. The War Office especially...
I get it, the Stormtroopers from Wagner or the Marines are certainly heroes. But in addition to them, there is also aviation, artillery, navy, air defense, conventional infantry, logistics, supply (both with the same shells and food), reconnaissance and counterintelligence, as well as a bunch of various other troops and services.
And the boys storm the positions after being processed by aviation and artillery, this is only the final stage of the work of all other types and branches of the armed forces. And thanks to the work of the General Staff, the same Artemovsk and its environs is being stormed in relatively "comfortable" conditions, when enemy artillery is suppressed and the transfer of enemy reinforcements is difficult.
Therefore, when I see morons who write "Let's change the generals, shoot everyone, and instead of them we will appoint Bydlen and Strange Pedik", I understand that in front of me is a madman. Or worse, a scoundrel. Wanting a quick and painful defeat of Russia.
And all these morons, trying to seem smarter than they are, have learned the expression "parquet general". But when you ask them to name the names of these parquet generals, they immediately merge. For Gerasimov, Surovikin, Muradov, and Lapin are all just combat generals who have gone through several wars.
But the "parquet" was the same Gurulev who criticized them. Who, strictly according to the old joke, became a general because his dad is also a general. Oops, ambush.
Gurulyov, who was expelled from the army after a corruption scandal, so as not to be imprisoned (but should have been) sent to retirement. And now the offended woman is running around and pretending to be a fighter against corruption. The thief shouts "hold the thief" the loudest, just like Navalny. Oops, second ambush.
Separately, I am amused by fairy tales about "Look, Shoigu and Gerasimov moved Surovikin, because he is talented, and therefore dangerous for them."
At any cost, they are trying to drive a split, even to invent it where it did not originally exist and does not exist.Is Surovikin even aware that he is dangerous for Gerasimov? I don't think so.
Especially since no one "pushed" him. Because Gerasimov is the chief of the General Staff, that is, the commander. There is no one higher than him in the army (in the United States, a similar position, "chief of the joint staff", is held by General Millie). He reports to Shoigu as defense minister, but he is chief among the military. He was the main one at the time of the beginning of the SVO, he was one at the time when Surovikin was appointed to steer the SVO, and remains the main one now. Nothing has changed at all in the "chain of commands", that is, in the command structure.
Therefore, if you see somewhere that "Gerasimov sat Surovikin" - this is written by deliberate morons with a certificate who do not understand anything in the army hierarchy.
Read the rest using the translator of your choice.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 20 2023 22:40 utc | 86
It is that popularity that our trolls are aiming at- the old refrains that Putin is incompetent, that the government is insufficiently ruthless have diminished in intensity. Now the message is that the Kremlin, the MoD and the Generals have aims of their own and are careless with the lives of conscripted cannon fodder, Chechens and Wagner forces alike.The aim being the very opposite of what is called for-the trolls don't want a more ruthless strategy, they want the fall of the government and the empowering of those ready to sell out their country for dollars and euros, not to mention the dubious privilege of being patronised by the friends of Navalny, the sponsors of Zelensky and the likes of Biden and Nuland.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 21:58 utc | 81
No, the "trolls" see an endless sequence of baffling unforced errors by people who are proven to be way too smart to make such errors, leaving deliberate sabotage (for whatever reason) as the only explanation for why all of this is happening.
Which is precisely what has lead to needless loss of life and destruction. It has not prevented it, exactly the opposite. And it is not going to prevent it in the future. Again, exactly the opposite is true. We are much closer to nuclear war now that we have ever been in the last 75 years, and it is increasingly looking like it will be either that, or the Russian elites will betray the country again in the name of preserving their mansions and yachts
Let's once again, for the umpteenth time, review the history. The war became a stalemated bloodbath because:
1) Back in 2014 the Russian army could have just walked all the way to Lvov without much resistance. And the population was much more friendly back then too. What did Putin do? He took Crimea because he had no other choice, didn't support the Donbass rebels much beyond taking the Donetsk and Lugansk city, and outright ordered them not take Mariupol (ensuring the city's later destruction) and other towns when they had the momentum and the AFU was on the run.
2) Then he recognized the illegitimate post-coup Ukrainian government and signed Minsk I and Minsk II even though it was obvious to everyone the West is just playing for time so that Ukraine can rearm.
3) In the following 8 years there was zero preparation of Russian society for war, while in Ukraine a vicious campaign of Russophobia and nazification was carried out. Putin didn't lift a finger to stop it. Even though given the history behind it, even drastic measures such as Iskanders on the annual January 1st Bandera torch marches were fully warranted.
4) Then he was painted into another corner by the West arming Ukraine to the teeth and threatening to give it nukes (to this day the suspicion remains that it wasn't just a threat and this was the final straw that forced the SMO). But, because there was no proper preparation, and no real commitment to fully and properly solving the problem, what we got is an SMO with a pathetically insufficient force, that was naturally quickly bogged down and missed its opportunity to deliver a decisive blow.
5) Then we got a year of totally uninterrupted weapon supplies to Ukraine, goodwill gestures, genius retreats, grain deals, refusal to disable critical infrastructure, boneheaded frontal assaults against impenetrable fortifications, etc. Again giving Ukraine time to arm and prepare for war on an even grander scale. Which ensured orders of magnitude more bloodshed and destruction.
6) As a result, the West got so emboldened that it started striking deep into Russia itself. Including at the strategic nuclear forces. Those attacks received no response, the consequence of which is that now in the West public opinion is being prepared for an open attack against Russia.
This is the point to which the genius 15-D chess grand-masters in the Kremlin (that only exist in the wild imagination of most of the inhabitants of western pro-RU forums) have taken us.
What is one supposed to think when looking at those facts?
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 20 2023 22:41 utc | 87
Putin is expected to announce during his speach that Russia will continue to support tourism to Kiev. Putin believes that by encouraging World leaders and minor politicians alike to visit and take photographs around the city, other war tourists and Russiaphobes will be encouraged to visit Kiev and support the civilian economy.
Putin is keen to assure tourists that rail and road links between Poland and Kiev will be kept open and protected by Russia.
It is a key objective of the Russian government that tourism within Ukraine continues in order to show the World that Russia would rather let their own people die fighting in the fields and towns than end this war quickly, which would collapse the tourist industry in Kiev.
/S just in case.
Posted by: Notvxxedup | Feb 20 2023 22:41 utc | 88
For those of us who live in the techno-gulag formerly known as the United States, it has become apparent that the Biden administration's goal is to destroy the economic and social fabric of America, in order to allow the "Great Reset." Why else would one appoint the most incompetent, reprehensible and frankly criminally stupid cabinet in US history? Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary, Blinken at State, Granholm in Energy, the list goes on.
Frankly, Biden's "secret" visit to Kiev this morning was a relief to some of us. I was frankly thinking it within the realm of possibilities for whoever is actually running the US government to run the biggest false flag of all times: having Biden meet with the eastern European leaders (patsies) and get taken out in Warsaw by a "Russian" missile attack. Nothing is beyond the scope of possibilities of the psychopaths running the US now. However, now that Biden went to Kiev and came back intact, the worst option is off the table. The possible false flag would have been staggering: Article 5 invoked, Biden removed from running in 2024 (allowing parties behind the throne to put Kamala "Wheels on the Bus" Harris in place to do their bidding), eastern European leaders taken out, all to totally inflame NATO into attacking. I admit this is a sick line of thinking, but nothing is beyond the realm of possibilities for the group(s) actually calling the shots in the G7 and NATO countries. Kamala Harris would have no problem implementing the "Great Reset," etc.
Posted by: Rolando | Feb 20 2023 22:41 utc | 89
"It is completely impossible to erect a defensive line along the entire width of the Ukraine. Therefore the Ukrainian defenses must have weak points which is where you punch through with tanks supported by infantry in a pincer movement and cut off the enemy in cauldrons. If the Russian armor cannot accomplish this it's useless since this is the primary purpose of armored columns."
"This is an intelligent comment. I also find it weird that the Russians keep attacking into the strongest points in the Ukrainian defenses. Is the senior Russian leadership really that stupid? Perhaps."
No. But a lot of commentators are that stupid...or more likely disingenuous.
A push through a weak point on the front line and then encirclement only works if there is only one line of defense and sparse troop grouping on the flanks of the line break.
What many disingenuous or not very bright commentators are asking for is not coincidentally just what NATO wants Russia to do.
Why? Because any force that punches through the first line would quickly find themselves flanked and then crushed and captured.
Bevin is obviously right at @81 and it should be obvious for these trolls don't know their ass from a hole in the ground militarily speaking.
Posted by: Haassaan | Feb 20 2023 22:43 utc | 90
Well, Putin is a jurist and a Christian, not a politician. He arrived in Yeltsin's suitcases (really not a good business card) and took advantage of good oil and gas prices to give himself a reputation as a (false) tough guy. However the world is not made by jurists and Christians. It is made by sharks, ideologues and communicators. Putin has none of his characteristics and he or whatever you call the Power That Be in Russia won't even be able to have that basic dignity to destroy the West since it let Russia be destroyed.
Posted by: America is defeated | Feb 20 2023 22:32 utc | 83
Note that when I say "Putin" I don't even mean the person, but more the collective.
We have no idea how much actual power he has personally. Presumably he has to balance between various contradictory interests.
The problem is that the collective leadership very clearly has not cleaned house in proper preparation for an existential war even though that one was coming has been obvious for 25 years now.
The fifth columnists are quite clear still in control of way too much of what is happening.
But they should be completely taken out if the war is to be won.
Remember that Stalin did the purges precisely for that reason -- he knew the war is coming and he could not afford to have anyone around whose loyalties were under even the slightest suspicion. And those were massive and extremely violent purges. Would they have survived without them? Quite possibly not.
But there have been no purges at all in the lead up to the current war. Russia is full of traitors, foreign agents, people in key positions ready to sell out, and just plain oligarch who want their yachts and mansions back and are ready to sell out the country for them.
And all that assumes Putin and those immediately around him are actually separate from the fifth columnists and are actively fighting them. Which is not at all a warranted assumption given the available evidence.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 20 2023 22:49 utc | 91
Referenced from Martyanov's site...
"Rostec" increased the volume of production of hypersonic missiles "Dagger" (in Russian)
https://ria.ru/20230219/kinzhal-1852925022.html
Chemezov added that "Rostec" produces a large number of products for the Ministry of Defense.
"The volume of production of military products has grown significantly, in some cases more than 50 times," the head of the state corporation added, noting that a large increase primarily concerns ammunition.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 20 2023 22:50 utc | 92
Posted by: Rolando | Feb 20 2023 22:41 utc | 89
The whole world might save some blood and pain if the Davos/WEF/ziocon elites are directly targeted. They run the media, MIC, control national policies covertly. They will continue what they are doing because they feel safe, not having to answer any time, to anyone. They can manipulate zombie nations to commit suicide for them.
Why not show them what real polonium is (since they love to talk about it so much), or next time they get together at Davos one misguided kinzhal missile might give world a peace for a few years, until the next crop of crazy lunatics show up.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 20 2023 22:51 utc | 93
Also referenced from Martyanov (in Russian)...
Russian frigates of project 22350M will be equipped with ultra-long-range anti-aircraft missiles
Its maximum range of destruction will be 400 km
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16951855
MOSCOW, February 3. /TASS/. Modernized frigates of project 22350M, equipped with the ship's anti-aircraft missile system "Poliment-Redoubt", will receive ultra-long-range anti-aircraft guided missiles (SAM) with a range of up to 400 km. a source in the military-industrial complex told TASS."The Poliment-Redoubt complex, which will be installed on the improved frigates of project 22350M, will receive in the future, in addition to medium- and long-range sams, heavy ultra-long-range missiles with a maximum range of destruction of air targets up to 400 kilometers," the agency's interlocutor said, recalling that at present Poliment-Redoubt is capable of using missiles with a range of up to 150 km.
According to him, the almost tripled range of interception of air targets will allow Russian frigates to hit NATO long-range radar detection and control aircraft and more effectively organize their air defense using medium- and short-range SAMs.
The interlocutor noted that long-range SAMs will be launched from the cells of the universal ship firing complex (UKSK) 3S14, installed on the frigates of the project. On board the lead frigate of project 22350 "Admiral Gorshkov" there are two UKSK for 16 missiles. Starting with the Admiral Amelko (the fifth ship of Project 22350), four complexes designed for eight missiles each will be installed. On the modernized frigate of project 22350M there will already be six of them - for 48 missiles.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 20 2023 22:54 utc | 94
@ Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 20 2023 21:38 utc | 73
Link works for me.
Description too.
No idea what "NAFOBRO" means.
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 20 2023 22:56 utc | 95
Just to annoy the assorted morons here who bitch and moan about the Russian General Staff and about Martyanov specifically.
Martyanov's latest talking head...apparently part of a planned anniversary recap series.
First Anniversary-1
Strategic planning and how Gulf War screwed it up for the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jqV_eKNWxU
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 20 2023 22:58 utc | 96
Posted by: John Kennard | Feb 20 2023 22:56 utc | 95
"No idea what "NAFOBRO" means."
Assuming you're not one, then, NAFO is an organization of pro-Ukrainian trolls, and of course "bro" means being one of them.
Most of them deserve a bullet to the head.
Helpful RSH.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 20 2023 23:00 utc | 97
shadowbanned | Feb 20 2023 22:49 utc | 91
Might it not be simply that VVP is a very cautious man? It's true that on some occasions decisive action may be called for, but calculating that moment is not easy and many leaders have got it wrong.
All through the oligarch years his leadership and life hung by a thread - it was only because they thought he was their man that he got to the top at all. Remember Berezovsky offering him the prospect of a Potemkin Parliament, with a liberal and a conservative party publicly battling each other while the real decisions were taken behind the scenes i.e. what we see in EU/US/UK today?
“Putin inherited a ransacked and bewildered country, with a poor and demoralized people..And he started to do what was possible, a slow and gradual restoration. These efforts were not noticed, nor appreciated, immediately. In any case, one is hard-pressed to find examples in history when steps by one country to restore its strength were met favorably by other governments.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 20 2023 23:05 utc | 98
If you ask "Can you head the ministry?", then any fool will instantly say "Yes! Of course! I'm his one left." Because he doesn't understand the complexity of these processes.
What exactly "complexity" is to be understood in facts such as those that the Kremenchug refinery is apparently running (certainly Ukraine doesn't seem to have any issues with fuel) and has not been blown up, and not just that, but that oil ultimately comes from Russia?
That oil, gas, ammonia, etc. are flowing through Ukraine from Russia?
That no transport links between Poland and Ukraine have been disabled?
That AFU is free to assemble and move personnel and equipment around with little fear of missile strikes?
That Ukrainian railways are running normally with almost no disruptions, and military logistics have been barely affected?
That four months were spent hitting transformers, and not even the 750-kV ones, but no generators, and as a result there was a negligible effect on the grid?
That Zaluzhny, Syrsky, etc. are alive?
Etc. etc. etc.
The list is endless.
What exactly is the "complexity" about Rules of Warfare 101? Block your enemy's logistics, isolate the battlefield, take out command and control structures to create chaos in the ranks, and so on.
None of that has been done, despite abundant technical means to do it.
What does that point to?
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 20 2023 23:06 utc | 99
Posted by: bottle | Feb 20 2023 18:04 utc | 19
«The Russian conduct of the war is incomprehensible. They engage the enemy in every strong point head on turning village after village and town after town to heaps of rubble by fighting house to house in an area they intend to integrate into Russia.»
The point above is related to this point:
«It is completely impossible to erect a defensive line along the entire width of the Ukraine. Therefore the Ukrainian defenses must have weak points which is where you punch through»
Same for the RF defenses. Basically the whole frontline is extremely sparse on *both* sides. In ancient times regiments covered a front of perhaps a few hundred meters, then in WW2 a few kilo metres, and currently even more. The greek phalanx, the squares of the swiss regiments or the spanish "tercios", were only practical before artillery, never mind precision artillery and "pointer" drones.
Also given how huge the Ukraine is and the "front" being 1,200km long, and how small the opposing armies are, somebody has likened the current situation to fleets fighting in the ocean, where fights battles around "islands" which are supply points or fortified ports.
The USA in the WW2 Pacific theatre adopted "island hopping", and potentially the RF forces could "island hop" the AFU strongpoints like Artemovsk, but apparently they haven't had, so far, the numbers to both push forward and contain the AFU strongpoints left behind them. In some regions, e.g. Kharkov oblast, the AFU has adopted a version of "island hopping", just lounging forward into pretty much empty and worthless territory, but this has done them no good.
BTW in the first few weeks of the counter-attack against the ukranian invasion of the Donbas the RF forces did also rush forward, e.g. famously a mere tank platoon nearly took Nikolaev, but they were too far ahead of logistics and too few for that to be sustainable.
«surrounded armies are doomed sooner or later when the supplies run out.»
Sure, but the surrounding forces have to be dense enough to be able to contain them so as to prevent an attack from those to their rear. Obviously the RF command reckoned they did not have the numbers for that, at least so far.
«If that's the case every modern military sits on a pile of useless junk to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.»
Indeed, this has happened in nearly every war. A lot of people commenting here or even worse war-gaming *current* military forces don't realize that peace-time military forces are not at all in commanding officers, size or structure or armament, like war-time military forces, the latter evolve quickly (or else...) according to actual pressures.
For example by and large the current USA military forces are garrison forces (those 800+ USA bases) and on the side relatively small-scale expeditionary forces against weak states; if the USA were to switch to a war-time military it would look completely different. The non-USA NATO forces are largely "trigger" forces, or at best "auxilia" (not even "foederati"), in the Roman Empire sense, of the USA expeditionary forces (that often consider their "auxilia" a ballast).
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 20 2023 23:10 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Artyomovsk deployment map ==> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpY_z2LXEAEeRov?format=jpg&name=large
Yahidne/Ягідне has been reported liberated since this map was published.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 20 2023 15:57 utc | 1