So the collective West continues in its madness and its delusions. As far as I can see, the Munich Security Conference was really rather inconsequential. Blinken doing his usual blah blah blah about the USA fears that China will help Russia by providing heavy weapons. Well, Blinky, so what? The collective West is Arming Ukraine to the hilt. Quid pro quo. The clown brutal Nazi Dictator stating the security of Europe depends on Ukraine wining this. Stoltenberg’s Gee, the only way to peace is by providing more weapons. So it goes on and on and on. Same old tropes and bullshit. But, Macron’s speech was interesting regarding that there will be no regime change in Russia. Better, the comments he gave during an interview with a French Newspaper about NATO having been unable to explain to Russia their aims and intentions so Russia has interpreted their conduct as encroachment on Russia’ security. I wonder, is Macron starting to bail out of this? In the meantime, Russia continues to stick to task and focus whilst this shitstorm blows around them.
It seems to me that the only Regime change will be in Kiev, the only country that will be decolonised is Ukraine and NATO will be seriously weakened, not Russia. In the meantime, it is forgotten that 3 days before Russia entered Eastern Ukraine, the USA bombed Somalia for 3 days and have started building a USA Base there completely against the wishes of the Somalian Government. No Sanctions on the USA then and no media reportage in the collective West. They are also interfering with Somalia’s attempts to organise a democratic election. Israel has bombed civilians in the centre of Damascus. No reporting no action against Israel. No condemnation. And so it goes. So-called Rules based international world order. Good thing it doesn’t actually exist yet.
The West is now on the brink of becoming dangerously insane.

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Feb 19 2023 13:44 utc | 3

Blinken doing his usual blah blah blah about the USA fears that China will help Russia by providing heavy weapons.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | Feb 19 2023 13:44 utc | 3
—
Strategic ambiguity on Taiwan is a double edged sword.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 19 2023 14:02 utc | 5

@hans23 | Feb 19 2023 13:49 utc | 4
Great article. There is a buildup and on both sides.
The Russians will want to protect the land bridge to Crimea and stay flexible in choosing their opportunities. Small scale warfare seems to have worked well enough for them.
I cannot see Odessa not being a long range target. The Russians will have to go through the middle before they swing South. All the other military objectives are a question of best opportunity.
There is not much UK military left. Who on the UK is fighting so fiercely in small scale combat and why?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Feb 19 2023 14:29 utc | 7

Any guesses about the nature of Biden’s trip?

Posted by: Wilbur | Feb 19 2023 14:33 utc | 9

> Macron’s speech was interesting regarding that there will be no regime change in Russia.
Meaningless. Motive could be as simple as wanting to “assure” dumb audiences that their “side” is reasonably trying to “defend” Ukraine rather than destroy Russia.
Ignore mixed messages of the Empire of Lies.

Posted by: natokraine | Feb 19 2023 14:41 utc | 11

Thank you b for your analysis and hosting of this fine place. Posters here continue to offer sites and insights for better understanding. This is my favorite bar, by far.

Posted by: Granite | Feb 19 2023 14:49 utc | 13

From Sputnik: https://sputniknews.com/20230219/china-warns-us-not-to-add-fuel-to-fire-of-ukraine-conflict–1107595289.html

China Warns US ‘Not to Add Fuel to Fire’ of Ukraine Conflict
Beijing’s official position on the Ukraine conflict is that it supports negotiations for peace, a senior Communist Party of China officer stated at the 2023 Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
Beijing has warned Washington against fueling the conflict in Ukraine, where Russia continues its special military operation.
Meeting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the 2023 Munich Security Conference on Saturday, head of the Communist Party of China’s Central Foreign Affairs Office Wang Yi stressed that “As a great power, the US should contribute to a political solution to the crisis, not add fuel to the fire and look for opportunities to benefit from it.”
According to Wang, China has adhered to a constructive position in relation to the crisis in Ukraine and supported the negotiating process.
Wang also made it clear that Beijing “will never tolerate US instructions or even threats to put pressure on Russian-Chinese relations.”
He earlier told the Munich Security Conference that China would draft and present a document, in which its position on the Ukraine crisis will be outlined by the end of February.
“On the Ukraine issue, China’s stance boils down to supporting talks for peace. We will put forth a paper on China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis and stay firm on the side of peace and dialogue,” he underscored.
For its part, the US State Department said in a press release that during talks with Wang, Blinken “warned about the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion.”
This came after a US media outlet quoted unnamed sources as saying that Washington believes that Beijing may be providing non-lethal military assistance to Moscow for use in Ukraine and that the Biden administration is concerned China considers sending lethal aid.
The outlet added that the sources declined to elaborate on the non-lethal military assistance, only claiming that it could include gear for the Russian military’s purported spring offensive, including uniforms or even body armor.
The US and its allies slapped a number of sanction packages against Russia shortly after it launched its special military operation in Ukraine following requests from the Donbass republics to protect them from Kiev’s attacks. Apart from the sanctions, western countries ramped up their military assistance to the Zelensky regime in a move that Moscow warns will add to further prolonging the Ukraine conflict.

Blinken really should read Larchmonter’s Double Helix treatise…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 19 2023 15:10 utc | 15

I listened / read Macron’s speech and was perplexed. Obviously he needs to take care with his comments but for the life of me I could not understand where he was coming from.
Macron “Well we want Russia to keep in its place and do what we say, and by the way if we build up an existential threat on your borders you have to ignore us. Now look you naughty Motherland, you did not do as we say so we will now punish you by dismemberment and regime change. Oh, you don’t like that and appear to be successfully resisting. And in the process we screweded our economies and kicked off the end of western dominance. Well never mind, you can go back to just sitting at the back of the class. Just don’t do it again.”
Putin “We are now going to burn down the school”.
Macron seems to be trying to play both ends against the middle and failing. He is not stupid and must realise what he is now saying does not make sense. Unless he really believes that Russia cannot achieve a military victory. And that seems to be the western establishment view.
And that is the only explanation that seems coherent to me.
Hence I go back on my view that Russia needs to achieve a military victory that cannot be disguised by twitter and CNN et al that somehow they have lost.

Posted by: marcjf | Feb 19 2023 15:13 utc | 17

Jo Dominich no. 3
“The West is now on the brink of becoming dangerously insane.”
I wonder how insanely incensed they’ll become when Ukraine loses because of lack of ammunition/military support.(or any other reason)

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Feb 19 2023 15:25 utc | 19

The pity we all feel for Russia is deep and sorrowful. Was Russia taunted and drawn in? Certainly. Did they go in the wrong way at the wrong time with the wrong strategies? Terribly so. Russia has taken it on the chin for a hundred years. Clearly intentional. All I see in the writhing and dead bodies are mother’s sons. Breaks my heart. At this point Putin has to go. Russia has to leave Crimea and Donbass. Sorry, just has to happen. Russia can keep the base in Sevastopol (fwiw) if they leave the occupied territories in orderly fashion. Looks like half the RF is gonna walk too. Not much to do about it. And China’s move? Will it be to help Putin, or take the gas fields of the East? (Oh, it will be a transaction, not a war). Do not be ashamed for loving Putin, and being wrong to do so, humans get swayed by all kinds of unfortunate ideas. It happens to everyone. Now, let go, free yourself of this doddering failure. Russia has one decision maker and hundreds of advisors. The U.S. empire has 700,000 analysts and thousands of decision makers, and a show leader to read scripts. Much more insidious game theorists terrain. Now, forget the silly primitive past, empire and industry fade as nano science revolutionizes production and energy and medicine. No more farming, factories, soon, no more hospitals. My advice, forget geopolitics, give it to the NWO and secure some private space for you and yours. It is gonna be crazy. Free Tibet, death to the evil and shameful PRC! Free Russia and the world. Russia can still join the West against the PRC and let human freedom ring (as we also end fascist thinking and ways pervasive globally – expedited by the new technologic realities. Because with these new tech, we do not want crazy authoritarians, no sireebob. Free your mind and your ass will follow, the Kingdom of Heavan is Within! (p-funk)

Posted by: Ahole | Feb 19 2023 15:32 utc | 21

Posted by: Ahole | Feb 19 2023 15:32 utc | 21
What are the exact words your psychiatrist uses to describe your condition?

Posted by: Humbert Humbert | Feb 19 2023 15:38 utc | 23

Catalina @22 – you are right, at least as far as I am concerned. Zelensky will be, when the time is right, disappeared as per the Skripals in the UK and killed by the CIA. Of course, Russia will be blamed but we all know the truth.
The person I’m interested in right now is Arestovich – he’s disseminating some truths and he clearly knows so much more. His recent comments about Russian culture and language should not be eradicated is interesting. He needs to stay safe for now but I hope in the coming weeks when this is all finished, he will go live in one of the Eastern Oblasts now part of the Russian Federation and really, really, spill the beans.

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Feb 19 2023 15:56 utc | 25

Posted by: rk | Feb 19 2023 15:43 utc | 24
Yeah sure. Looks like they hauled in some big barrels with the radiation hazard sign stamped on the side and with big ol’ “MADE IN USA” on the side, to explain everyone what they’re trying to do. Odessa harbor. This will get bad.
https://t.me/russianhead/11538

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2023 16:04 utc | 27

Posted by: jpc | Feb 19 2023 13:44 utc | 2
IA month ago in a post I called the constant activations and movements the Emil Kio strategy, after the famous Russian illusionist who performed in a circus big top, allowing the audience a 360 degree view of his performance. The focus on Bakhmut and Ugledar, whilst they breakthrough in the Northern front is a classic example of this doctrine of open misdirection. The Russian General staff are playing NATO the way a conman plays his mark in a shell game.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2023 16:17 utc | 29

Posted by: Ahole | Feb 19 2023 15:32 utc | 21
What are the exact words your psychiatrist uses to describe your condition?
Posted by: Humbert Humbert | Feb 19 2023 15:38 utc | 23
Might be a brilliant wind up.
Or on the same meds as Jens and the rest of team America.

Posted by: jpc | Feb 19 2023 16:32 utc | 31

unimperator | Feb 19 2023 16:04 utc | 27
I see now, multiple channels report it. So it arrived in Chernomorsk. Well… the same cause of problems since 2022, or 2014, even before. When you have a tiny army and bad generals, you can only complain on twitter, nothing else.
Donetsk city center received about 40 mlrs strikes today and Belgorod region was hit by artillery.

Posted by: rk | Feb 19 2023 16:40 utc | 33

LoL it doesnt matter if US has 700,000 analysts or 7 MILLION analysts.
The US leadership obviously does not listen to anynof them. Otherwise they would not have done stupid things like bomb Nordstream thinking noone will notice who did it or send Ukraine into a suicide mission knowing they will run out of ammo after 12 months.
Doesnt matter if u have 700 billion top class analysta when you are led by clowns like Joe Biden, Kamala(LoL), Blinkers, Nuland and Sulky. LoL

Posted by: Comandante | Feb 19 2023 16:45 utc | 35

Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2023 16:44 utc | 34
To some extent it’s a document of its time but, in my view at least, that doesn’t undermine or negate the underlying basis.
As I posted in the earlier thread, I believe the piece needs renewed visibility.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 19 2023 16:59 utc | 37

Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2023 16:44 utc | 34
I think I read a poem elsewhere at this place regarding “cleverness” and in the absence of understanding, it typically evolves into detrimental actions that ultimately swallow the “clever” ones full of trickery especially and whatnot….
BK

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 19 2023 17:05 utc | 39

Feb 19 2023 13:38 utc | 1
western 155mm shells do not have casings, the powder is bagged and the shell rammed up the tube with bags needed for the range pushed in.
if 155mm were cased the bullet would weigh well over 100 pounds…
western 105mm and us 120mm (abrams gun) is cased.

Posted by: paddy | Feb 19 2023 17:15 utc | 41

Posted by: marcjf | Feb 19 2023 15:13 utc | 17
Hence I go back on my view that Russia needs to achieve a military victory that cannot be disguised by twitter and CNN et al that somehow they have lost.
There could be vids of T 90s parked on the beaches of Normandy. With thick smoke drifting eastward across the English channel from a flattened and burnt British isle.
CNN would still say Russia is loosing.

Posted by: Golddiggr | Feb 19 2023 17:18 utc | 43

West of England Andy@30
I also want to thank you for posting the link to the Larchmonter analysis.
I saw it on the other thread and am reading it. Very well written and most certainly enlightening.

Posted by: JB | Feb 19 2023 17:25 utc | 45

A singing lesson in a normal Ukrainain school, with subtitles.
https://t.me/voenkor_evtushenko/3656
What is remarkable for me is the absolute, innocent sincerity.
One that was irradiated by EuroMaidan and which also was reported from WW2 banderites letters to their families.

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 19 2023 17:36 utc | 47

TsZ @ 38
Clicked on your link. Camera is not in a good place to do a good crowd estimate. I will guess in the range of two hundred to a thousand. The majority of those will be intel watching each other. America supports Ukraine. Without lots of enthusiasm or interest. Or any particular knowledge.
If there were any serious opposition in US there would be thousands of intel watching the crowd, instead they know very well there is not much need to bother themselves.

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 19 2023 17:41 utc | 49

Hans23 @4
Thanks for sharing the Simplicimus evaluation. His take appears to be quite in synch with various other observations. My ongoing take over the past three weeks or so is that the Russian grand offensive will be of the “Whack a Mole” variety…staging four or five incursions within the period of a week or so.
Ukie reserves are mostly already drawn out. It would appear that their major concentration of “resting’ units may be most heavily concentrated in the neighborhood of Zap city. Yet even that body may not suffice to deal with the probable assault levels the RF will set loose on that area. Thus, even more units may be frantically re-posted to that front. Meanwhile, well to the north, the second element of the Grand Pincer will swoop down in one of three or four possible vectors…drawing in even more of those dwindling Ukie reserves.
The one which could break the back of the defense would be in the Kupyansk/Liman/ Seversk directions. At that point there would be precious few reserves remaining to attempt closures of that potential bleed-out, followed by a runaway advance into open steppe country, where if the ground is reasonably hard-frozen; Russian armored advances could be widespread. All at the same time, the defenses around Zap city would be hemmed-in there by more territorial-typed units, backed up by a good logistics corridor and plenty of artillery. The strike forces, in the meantime might possibly make a Dnieper crossing somewhat to the northeast of Zap city, while the second arm would roar on up the river in the general direction of the northern pincer.
This supposition will most likely not hold fast, as in the fog of war unexpected developments and opportunities might come into play, with differing outcomes than projected. One element which is fairly certain, though, is that the Ukie military is already mostly a spent force. Therefore, Russian plans and objectives may become more opportunistic than can currently be projected.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 19 2023 17:52 utc | 51

West of England Andy | Feb 19 2023 15:28 utc
Thanks for the saker white paper link ! Fascinating & very informative.

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Feb 19 2023 18:10 utc | 53

Mike R @14
Thanks for the update from Weeb Union. Judging from his customarily precise layout of the battlefront around Bakhmut, it can be projected that the draw-strings grasped by the Russian forces will soon obviate withdrawal of Ukie forces from that long fought-over city. Once that total envelopment eventuates, the several thousand Ukies in the pocket will be rapidly surrounded by some newly christened and essentially unbloodied Russian place-holder troops, backed by considerable artillery and a sound logistical trail.
Message to those besieged will essentially be “surrender or starve”. Likely also that the conscript battalions will get plenty of airmail messages suggesting that they remove the “nazionalist” enforcers by cutting them down so that they can peacefully surrender and thus save their own lives. Clearly, for the trapped Ukie conscripts, the situation will be a life or death equation.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 19 2023 18:18 utc | 55

” PMC Wagner is different – Its actual experienced units seem to be very competent and this is what is heard from listening to interviews with volunteers on the front line but Russian Armed Forces honestly seem like a joke at this point – Like, building this entire offensive up and falling flat within two days.
Power would come from the barrel of a gun and PMC Wagner would have shown itself to be the only thing that would be resembling a competent military force in Russia. Vladimir Putin would better watch his back around Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Posted by: Vampire Kissinger | Feb 19 2023 17:25 utc | 44 ”
From the information I’ve been reading Wagner troops seemed to be better equipped, supplied, and trained then the average Russian soldier. Assuming Russia is paying for Wagner’s services, a given, why cant Russia just use the money to better train, equip, and supply its own regular troops ?

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Feb 19 2023 18:42 utc | 57

Sitrep report from Russian News channel Vesti on the situation near Ugledar https://www.vesti.ru/article/3211711
Our fighters confidently squeeze out the enemy
Front roads near Ugledar. First – on the “loaf” [nickname for a UAZ four wheel drive minibus] on the road, the last section – on foot. Soldiers of the 1st Army Corps are pushing the enemy out in the Ugledar direction. The task is to bypass the city from the flanks, block the supply routes.
Russia is advancing in several directions at once. The Kiev regime is pulling together all the new equipment and human reserves.
Front roads near Ugledar. First – on the “loaf” on the road, the last section – on foot. Soldiers of the 1st Army Corps are pushing the enemy out in the Ugledar direction. The task is to bypass the city from the flanks, block the supply routes. We move to the forefront. It is 3-4 kilometers to Ugledar itself, behind the landings are the fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They usually try to move around in the dark. But today – a snowstorm, visibility is low. On the one hand, you do not see the enemy, on the other hand, the enemy does not see you. There is an opportunity to gain a foothold on the frontier.
The terrain here is open, and as soon as they occupy a new height, the fighters have to literally bite into the ground. They build fortifications and equip firing points. And all this under enemy fire. In a short time, a labyrinth of trenches and a couple of dugouts appear in an open field.
The vast majority of those who are in positions are people of civilian professions in the past. Miners, truckers, sellers… When relatives and friends remain at home under the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they understand that they cannot retreat.
The approaches to Vuhledar are mined, the Ukrainian military take refuge in residential buildings. In the nearby villages, which have come under the control of Russian units, the humanitarian situation is close to critical. The surroundings of Ugledar today are entirely an exclusion zone. Abandoned broken houses are everywhere. Nevertheless, people continue to live here. Locals say, leaving, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were simply engaged in looting.
People are gradually coming out of the cellars, despite regular shelling. A tactic that the Ukrainian military uses regularly: retreating, they cover their former positions with artillery fire. Here – a direct hit in the rural house of culture. From the impact, the ceilings collapsed, the building was almost completely destroyed.
Behind the wheel of the “loaf” – Lech. He was born and raised in Ugledar, for many years he could not get to his parents, now he is fighting – in the hope of someday returning home.
The situation on the Donetsk sector of the front is still tense. The initiative belongs to the Russian subdivisions. The heaviest fighting continues in Marinka. Everywhere – the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers. Western weapons and abandoned NATO equipment.
The front is making noise along the entire line of contact. This is how the calculations of the Msta-B howitzer work. The artillery of the 1st Army Corps supports the advance of the infantry in the Donetsk direction. Shot, adjustment, new coordinates, shot at targets again.
* * *
South of the Donetsk People’s Republic. This is just a small episode of the battle for Ugledar. Marines of the Pacific Fleet from Kamchatka and Vladivostok occupy key heights in the Yuzhnodonetsk direction. Now these are not drone footage, but video footage of what the units of the Eastern Military District are doing at this moment.
Aviation works in the Ugledar direction. Air support for the Russian “Alligators” is provided by the TOR anti-aircraft missile system. This machine works on enemy drones. The advancement of motorized rifle units also depends on the support of these missile systems. And again in the work of the rocket system. The crew received the task and advanced to the firing line.
TOR came out of hiding and took the most convenient point. All systems are working now.
* * *
Now it’s getting colder, but despite the frost, our units carry out combat missions effectively in any weather. And around the clock. Army intelligence advances beyond the front line. To the enemy. It is necessary to find out where the enemy has already retreated after the artillery strike, and where he left firing points. Intelligence works boldly, but carefully. The enemy was forced to open positions – it’s time to leave. The main thing is to protect people. In case of trouble in each intelligence group – professional doctors.
Scouts probe the entire front line manually. Plus aerial reconnaissance. Each group is accompanied by a drone, or even two. To see further, see the enemy and help the commander instantly change the route if necessary.
Identified firing points, strong points, dugouts are destroyed by artillery. Armored groups are always ready to help the infantry. The anti-aircraft installation of Russian paratroopers is now entering the firing line to strike at designated targets. The infantry asked for support. Armored groups of Russian paratroopers – this is the 237th Airborne Assault Regiment – point-wise mow down enemy positions in the forests behind the Kremennaya-Svatovo line. On a reconnaissance tip, they come close and destroy.
Works BMP-2 with a new combat module “Berezhok”. In fact, a new tower with a modern control system that allows you to find targets at night. Combat module “Berezhok” – inside. Spacious enough, although, of course, there is no extra space. Everything is functional for work on the front line. Such a machine with guided missiles can destroy even the most modern NATO tanks.
The BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle with the Berezhok combat module is a modern powerful weapon. Firepower is complemented by 4 ATGMs to destroy enemy vehicles. BMP does not go to the front line alone. This is also support in case of evacuation. And the firepower grows when there is an anti-aircraft gun nearby. The paratroopers mounted anti-aircraft guns on an armored personnel carrier. It works effectively.
The enemy is destroyed around the clock. Along the front from Artemovsk to Seversk, our troops are successfully attacking everywhere. These positions – dugouts and trenches in the forest – are held by Akhmat special forces soldiers.
“Now we are at the forefront of the defense of Kremennoye. The situation is steadily tense. The shelling from the enemy is intense. Every day we destroy the enemy, liberate Russian territory. The enemy suffers heavy losses,” one of the soldiers said.
On this sector of the front, only volunteers. The offensive is carried out by various divisions. Muscovites and Rostovites, natives of the Caucasus and Siberians work nearby. Progress is not rapid, but sure.
The officer with the call sign Barmaley, who has been heroically fighting for a year now, knows the enemy well. His reconnaissance groups go to the front line daily. Every time it goes further. The front is gradually shifting to the west.

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Feb 19 2023 18:44 utc | 59

From Simplicius76 is this vital essay, “All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West’s ISR Overmatch?”, that explains a great deal as to why the offensive began with a FEBA-wide overall push forward. Back during the battle for Mariupol, I wrote that there’s no longer anywhere to hide due to technological advances, and that’s what his essay is all about. Too few here have understood that vital aspect of the combat being waged. Outraged was quite correct to focus on the artillery war and the need for Russia to eliminate as many Ukie barrels as possible before any major push in one sector can begin. Yes, it’s a long essay, but there’s simply no substitute for reading it.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2023 18:54 utc | 61

Assuming Russia is paying for Wagner’s services, a given, why cant Russia just use the money to better train, equip, and supply its own regular troops ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Feb 19 2023 18:42 utc | 58

Like any government bureaucracy, the RF DoD military is heavily rules based, expensive, slow to act/change and full of family “connected” people who are looking for a fairly safe sinecure and pension.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 19 2023 19:17 utc | 63

Posted by: Ahole | Feb 19 2023 15:32 utc | 21
What are the exact words your psychiatrist uses to describe your condition?
Posted by: Humbert Humbert | Feb 19 2023 15:38 utc | 23
I suspect “Ahole” @ 21 neglected to include the sarcasm off tag.
“/sarc off

Posted by: FoxThoughts | Feb 19 2023 19:31 utc | 65

marcjf wrote:
“Macron seems to be trying to play both ends against the middle and failing. He is not stupid and must realise what he is now saying does not make sense.”
No, I actually think that Macron is an idiot, who over rates himself. He’s a financier, a bankster, but he hates France and the French, and he’s totally off ground, like most of his cronies. He’s essentially a psychopath who has no idea of what empathy is, and because of that, he can’t even understand the most basic things.

Posted by: Nanabozho | Feb 19 2023 19:43 utc | 67

The West is now on the brink of becoming dangerously insane.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | Feb 19 2023 13:44 utc | 3
I think that ship has already sailed.

Posted by: Drinky Crow | Feb 19 2023 19:53 utc | 69

@ Vikichka #32
Yes, very expensive… NSA. CIA, DIA, NRO, etc… That is before we even get to Tavistok’s 6000 think tanks. The Soviets were largely anarchist, as was most leftist thinking and organization from 1840-1917. After the Anarchist Revolution of Mexico (1910-1) the power elite had enough and put the brakes on mental freedom. WW1. The hybrid anarchist/elite revolution in Russia in Feb/March 1917 was hijacked by German intelligence and Lennin was shipped in. The October Bolshevik counter revolution was the death of thought and the international and the rise of red and white fascist union. Consume the planet and manage technology. Manage humanity. Think of all those Marxist scholars. Pitiful! Like dems and GOP in usa, party of war and mining or the party of mining and war. (oh, and one says they protect fetuses and the other says they protect queers) All people fucked in a mind control disaster, even the masters. I live in the woods, because the trees don’t lie to me. Good luck! [pursuiant to some commentators, my diagnosis is: Anarchist who loves you even if you pick dumb sides.]. Obs what we need is MSS KGB and CIA to all finish each other off leaving humanity in perfect freedom!

Posted by: Ahole | Feb 19 2023 20:23 utc | 71

Anti-war demonstration in Munich yesterday. At least 50,000 rallied to demand peace during the Security Conference.

Posted by: OttoE | Feb 19 2023 20:44 utc | 73

Fifty thousand people wouldn’t even be 1% of Germany’s population, Ottoe.

Posted by: Haëlys | Feb 19 2023 21:13 utc | 75

Aleph_Null @74–
Thanks for the confirmation. I hinted at my anticipation of the coming events on the 21st-24th based on what occurred last year. Putin’s noon Moscow time speech on the 21st is in the dead of night my time, which is annoying but can’t be helped. The change in RuAF tactics makes great sense to interdict movement of reserves once they’re deployed that apparently’s been done rather sparingly to-date. As for what Putin will announce, IMO there’ll be a formal statement of the new Foreign Policy Concept that’s formulated by Russia’s president that Lavrov’s hinted at during his February appearances that will include Russia’s further withdrawal from European institutions and Russia will not tolerate under any circumstances any NATO presence in nations bordering Russia, the Union State, or any CSTO member, which will include any weaponry with the ability to attack any of those areas. I also anticipate the declaration that all former lands occupied by the Russian Empire within the current artificial state of Ukraine (Putin might even call Ukraine an artificial construct) will be liberated and returned to Mother Russia, which puts pressure on Romania and the Pro-NATO lackeys in Moldova. Such an announcement would require a legislative special session to codify Putin’s Ukases. Time will tell, of course. Like Galicia, the Baltics will be allowed to melt into insignificance, although it’s unclear to me how they’ll be deNATOfied.
However, as I commented last night, I see the implementation of genuine indivisible security as Russia and China have suggested quite problematic as that requires a level of trust that’s currently nonexistent between Russia and the rabid Russophobes.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2023 21:35 utc | 77

If you look at the composition of Russian forces…they are heavily mechanized….even airborne forces…so fighting in urban terrain is allocated to light infantry units and here is where the Wagner PMC and Chechen Spetsnaz come into play….with para airborne units also but for whatever reason…. operational security precludes much coverage of Russian troops. The Russian infantry… airborne and marines are very well turned out…their individual protection and fighting order is as good as the NATO Uber expensive reddit army posting all over social media and they are also loaded for bear…. bare in mind any information coming from the West is false and any official Russian information is supporting Russian strategic interests….their information vetted and redacted… usually released weeks and months after the action involved unless gleamed from Ukraineian sources from open sources and supporting their needs. Basically I’m saying we all actually have no idea what’s going on for sure but speculation and individual sleuthing seems popular….that said I think the build up in south is continuing from Ukrainian open sources

Posted by: Joe | Feb 19 2023 21:36 utc | 79

It seems to me people around here might be in for a letdown over the next couple of weeks. I figure there is a non-trivial chance that:
(a) Putin’s State of the Nation address will be almost entirely on domestic issues – boring stuff like education, roads, pensions, child support, housing, etc. I think that would be normal for the speech. It’s the Western media that makes it seem like the few minutes devoted to foreign policy and defence constitute the focus of the address. It could very well be that in terms of Ukraine, all we hear is something along the lines of “The SMO will continue until all objectives are achieved.”
(b) No big Russian offensive takes place. It’s possible the pre-offensive “battlefield shaping” has failed … or at least not succeeded enough. Russia may have burned through the men and material it’s willing to expend on the “shaping” without achieving the objectives (which presumably are some combination of destruction or weakening of Ukrainian military units and gaining advantageous territory).

Posted by: Mike314159 | Feb 19 2023 21:42 utc | 81

Aleksander Kots is a journalist of Komsomolskaya Pravda. He has been into Bakhmut with the Wagner ‘musicians’. His writing style is impressionistic. Important info: “The ratio of losses is 1 ours to 7 of the enemy.” https://www.kp.ru/daily/27467/4723196/
“We will definitely crush the enemy”: How Bakhmut is storming former prisoners and lieutenant colonels of the GRU in one formation
Military correspondent of KP.RU Alexander Kots spoke about the assault on Bakhmut
“APU CLOSED COMBAT DOES NOT RESIST”
– Along the way, we need to look for a detour, – the fighter with the call sign “Filmore” calmly states.
A few minutes before our passage, the enemy was working on duty targets, hitting the road connecting Soledar and Krasnaya Gora, a suburb of Artemovsk (Bakhmut). As luck would have it, in one place there were several cars at once, which fell under fire. Cars slowly flared up, raising a black column of smoke into the sky. Together with the escorts, we turn around and drive through the fields.
“We drove through everything on the trawl ourselves, there shouldn’t be mines,” Fillmore tunes in an optimistic mood.
I went to Soledar to visit the Wagner PMC to the accompaniment of artillery explosions and the music of whistling mines. From the city itself, only the brick skeletons of houses and chimneys remained – it is clear that heavy battles were going on here in fact for every meter. The fighters of the company were able to storm this settlement in two weeks. The operation was developed now by the Hero of Russia with the call sign “Lotus”, in the past – a paratrooper officer. However, there are no former paratroopers.
– The modern way to storm cities is to cover them. But at the same time, we must not forget that coverage should go on a broad front. That is, with the ability to maneuver in order to push back enemy reserves that can go to the flank or rear of the advancing group, – the Lotus explained to me at the entrance to the city. – The sooner we notice the enemy, the sooner we begin to use artillery and our firepower – tanks, ATGMs, etc. The closer the enemy approaches, the harder it is for us to stop him, because the projectile has fragments spread up to 800 meters. This means that when the enemy comes close to us, we can no longer use artillery. Just like the enemy. And when we come close, it is almost impossible to stop us. Because the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot withstand a shooting battle.
There would be more ammunition. Unfortunately, with active advancement, the attackers begin to experience shell hunger, which must be satisfied promptly so as not to lose offensive momentum. And there is someone here to find a use for ammunition.
“FIRST KNOWLEDGE, THEN RANKS”
– When I once served in the army, my commanders always said: first knowledge, and then ranks. Therefore, I tried to transfer this principle of work to our company, – the head of the artillery of the “musicians” shared with me. – We have professional competition. If any flight commander begins to professionally reduce his level, then another person will be appointed in his place, who will perform the task faster and better.
– In this conflict, we first encountered NATO artillery …
– Not for the first time, we came here, having already learned the lessons of other NATO artillery. I will not say now which one, but we have met more than once, she taught us a lot. Life forced us to develop new tactics for conducting combat operations by artillery units. But I won’t tell you about it. You must clearly understand that weapons are just iron. Everything depends on the people. If the personnel, both from our side and from that side, are professionally trained, there will be a result. If, however, people who simply do not know how to use them are put on new modern weapons, the result will be different.
– And how do you assess the personnel of the enemy?
– Firstly, both in Soviet times and in post-Soviet times, the Ukrainian school of artillery has always been famous for its specialists. They are great, since 2014 they have deployed all artillery schools and are training professionals. Well, we draw conclusions, quickly take action.
“I WANT TO RETURN HOME A MAN”
Soledar was a strategic hub for the defense of the north of the Artemovskaya agglomeration, on which the enemy’s logistical chains were tied. Having freed him, the “musicians”, with the support of the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces, moved closer to Bakhmut itself, first freeing its suburb – Krasnaya Gora, and then starting fights in Paraskovievka, through which the highway to Slavyansk leaves from.
It is the Fillmore that is taking me to Krasnaya Gora, fighting in the company for almost half a year. The first contract is ending soon and after a short vacation, he is going to return to his squad, where he has already made a career from an ordinary private to a foreman of the rear service and service of a tray. The position does not sound like a military one, but imagine that ammunition, water and provisions must be delivered to the front line, and the wounded must be taken from there. And all this with their feet under fire. Fillmore knows all the paths and paths in the area, and therefore was ordered to accompany us.
– Who was a civilian? – I ask the hoarse boy.
– … A window operator, – he answers after a short pause.
As you know, at one time volunteers were recruited into the military “band” from among the convicts. And a native of Volgodonsk “Filmore” is one of them. By the age of 24 – already two “walkers”. The first, as he says, “for his own” – for the purses, which he “pulled” out of the cars. The second “for no reason”: “I just drove my friends to the robbery, but I didn’t participate in it myself.” At the NWO, he assures, he rethought his views on life: “How should you not respect yourself, so that after all this you will sit down again ?!” I met this type of volunteers from former convicts. I remember asking one: “You only had a month to sit, and you were in the middle of nowhere for half a year with unobvious chances of staying alive. For what?” “But I want to return home as a man,” he answers. “To not be ashamed in front of mom and dad.”
ON MOBILIZATION DID NOT TAKE, WENT ITSELF
And next to the former inmates are reserve officers. Here is a middle-aged fighter with glasses and a full gray beard. It looks modest:
– Call sign “Pocha”, lieutenant colonel, ex-head of the group of the operational-analytical department of the GRU of the General Staff. He quit in 2009 when we were downsizing. Or rather, they were fired. When the president announced partial mobilization, as a patriot of his Motherland, he immediately called the military registration and enlistment office: guys, ready. The answer is from there: as long as there are no orders, no orders, we ourselves do not know what to do with you. I went to the military registration and enlistment office more than once, asked for a lower position, in any case, I am ready to go and defend the Motherland. They don’t take. Came to Wagner. Here I was accepted, here we have a brotherhood, we are all the same, equal. You can approach the commander and say what you think, and get an answer.
– That is, you, a lieutenant colonel of the GRU in the past, are now fighting as an ordinary attack aircraft? – I ask again. – On a par with former prisoners?
Yes, and they are all my family.
HOW THREE SECONDS SAVE LIVES
We stop the car in a thin forest belt. Further – on foot. To the left, about 300 meters away, shells exploded: “They are trying to get our mortars,” the escorts explain. On the right, the artillery of the “musicians” is hooting, working to suppress. And we are walking along the path of the “dwarf forest”, the height of which does not exceed human height. All bushes and trees are literally cut with metal. At first I thought that this was the “work” of shell fragments. Until we ran into two machine-gun points, from which the enemy was pouring water on our attack aircraft. It is terrible to imagine what the density of the fire was. Along the trail, here and there, heaps of bodies of APU fighters come across sprinkled with snow. They are pulled out of the broken dugouts and trenches and stacked to be exchanged for their dead. Cargo-200 goes to the other side in cargo columns. The ratio of losses is 1 ours to 7 of the enemy.
– Krasnaya Gora is a strategic point, here the terrain allows for reconnaissance, artillery preparation, – the deputy platoon commander meets us in the basement of one of the broken buildings. – The assault is very difficult, the enemy is well prepared for defense, machine-gun nests even with a grenade launcher do not smash the first time. But thanks to cunning, we bypassed and destroyed these positions. Although they hold on to the last bullet. We’re good with intelligence. We know exactly where the enemy is, in what quantity, where the machine gun is, where the mortar is. We suppress artillery, then we move.
Zamkomplatoon – from the orphanage. He independently got up on his feet, equipped himself with a box, was engaged in the repair of cars – painting, “bodywork”, electrician. It seems that everything was enough, he got married, had a child. But he was tempted to make easy money through fraud with insurance company payments under OSAGO. And thundered into the colony under the article “fraud”. Together we move in short dashes along Red Mountain, and the attack aircraft tells how he knocked out the enemy from every house.
– Up there, I had a sniper sitting there, suddenly they arrive there, the entrance is crumbling, I think, well, everything, the sniper disappeared. But he did not reach the edge of the house – he was tying the lace. Then I flew here, the roof is all to hell, I was already standing here. Three seconds earlier, and I wouldn’t be standing here right now. By the way, do you see all this destruction? When they were cleared, all these buildings were still intact. As soon as the enemy was completely knocked out of here, he raked everything with artillery. We won’t go further, there is a “rut”.
– What?
– Throwing artillery. We use slang and jargon for radio communications.
– And how will it be “to go on the attack”?
– “On the style.” “Filmore” and I are “on style” tomorrow.
– What will you do when you get home? – I ask.
– I don’t know, maybe I’ll go to Africa with a company. If the wife allows…
“WE WORK FOR A FULL ENVIRONMENT”
Large-caliber machine guns “sang” nearby. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, not thinking of giving up, tried to break through the positions captured by the “musicians”, but stumbled upon a competent defense. Assault detachments, meanwhile, continue to cover Paraskovievka in order to cut off the northern logistical route of Bakhmut by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
– The track is already blocked and completely under our fire control, – one of the commanders told me, in the past – from the internal troops. – The encirclement of Paraskovievka itself is being completed, battles are already going on in it. At the same time, the enemy uses field roads at night, it is very difficult to detect the supply. After Paraskovievka we go further, we are working on the complete encirclement of Artemovsk. The enemy understands that he is partially blocked, but there is no loss of control, they are seriously resisting, they do not experience shell hunger. But we will definitely add them.
BY THE WAY
Western planes will not help Kyiv
I managed to have a short talk with the commander of the Wagner air group. He asked whether Ukrainian pilots would quickly master NATO fighters.
– We see that they quickly adjust their equipment to use the same Western-made ammunition. Yes, there will be some problems, maintenance, spare parts. It’s long, tedious, and it’s more for informational noise. But, again, the same F-16, what will he do here? Our air defense is nearby, he will not be able to enter. Our air defense is much more effective than Ukrainian. So let them come.
We see that the enemy had heavy losses in aviation. We are all experienced people, they probably only have young people left. In aviation, you need experience to work properly. Just pulling the handle stupidly, as the expression used to be: “handle – gas – pay”, this will not work here. And experience is gained only over time, and in different combat conditions. Many people have gone through other hot spots. Therefore, we work as best we can, we work well, efficiently.

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Feb 19 2023 21:50 utc | 83

Mike314159 @83–
Putin’s address is to be carried live by all Russian TV channels. Russia’s legislature has arranged to meet in a special session the next day, which wouldn’t happen if the speech was merely about “boring stuff.” If you were aware of what transpired a year ago on the 21st, you wouldn’t be so glib.
Your appraisal of Russia’s current military posture is uninformed along the lines of most trolls.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2023 21:58 utc | 85

To Haelys at 77:
Unfortunately, 50000 is a VERY optimistic estimation. There were two larger demonstrations (and a few smaller ones) on Saturday in Munich. The number of participants given by the organisators were something like 3000 and 10000. (I took part in the smaller demo, and 3000 comes very near to my own estimate).
So yes: This is nothing. On each Saturday more people flood the center of Munich simply for shopping:-(

Posted by: shaka | Feb 19 2023 22:05 utc | 87

To Haelys at 77:
Unfortunately, 50000 is a VERY optimistic estimation. There were two larger demonstrations (and a few smaller ones) on Saturday in Munich. The number of participants given by the organisators were something like 3000 and 10000. (I took part in the smaller demo, and 3000 comes very near to my own estimate).
So yes: This is nothing. On each Saturday more people flood the center of Munich simply for shopping:-(
Posted by: shaka | Feb 19 2023 22:05 utc | 89

This is realistic. EU citizens, unfortunately deeply support and want war against Russia.

Posted by: savax | Feb 19 2023 22:35 utc | 89

Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2023 16:44 utc | 34
«As with Iran, the US has been herding the cats by making sure that everyone of its critics or opponents becomes part of the BRICS or the SCO.
It is the diplomatic form of the Empire’s death wish.
A wise US President would have done everything to divide his enemies»
Far from stupid:
* The rise of the PRC is inevitable, so the USA want to “contain” it behind a new iron curtain, so it the USA remain the hegemon in the rest of the world. The USA approach in these cases has been the same for a long while: surround, isolate, breakup.
* The USA want to surround the PRC and the RF (and Kazakhstan) is the biggest buffer state between the USA and the long and weak northern and western borders of the PRC. The USA have two choices: make friends with the RF and ask and most likely be refused for DOD/CIA bases on the siberian borders, or regime-change the RF and be “invited” by President Navalny to put CIA/DOD bases on the siberian borders to “protect” the RF from “chinese aggression”.
Accordingly the USA strategists seem to have chosen the latter option. Regime-change in the RF, over the next 10-15 years, is what they decided is most beneficial for the USA plans to “contain” the PRC.

Posted by: Blissex | Feb 19 2023 23:02 utc | 91

Blinken says China is ‘contemplating’ sending lethal aid to Russia. He doesn’t say what form the lethal aid will take. So we are left to speculate. Russia seems to have plenty of it’s own lethal stuff so what could China offer? And what will Blinken do if China sends a few artillery shells (for training purposes)?

Posted by: dh | Feb 19 2023 23:13 utc | 93

Posted by: OttoE | Feb 19 2023 20:44 utc | 75

Anti-war demonstration in Munich yesterday. At least 50,000 rallied to demand peace during the Security Conference.

Posted by: Moses | Feb 19 2023 23:23 utc | 95

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 20 2023 0:11 utc | 98
I await it with baited breath.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 0:29 utc | 97

Politico
Biden leaves Monday for Poland to meet with President Andrzej Duda and other key NATO leaders. U.S. officials believe that Ukraine’s defense is about to hit a critical phase with Russia launching its much-telegraphed offensive. The Biden administration has urgently pressed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration to consolidate its gains — and perhaps launch its own counterstrike.
Biden’s trip to Poland comes just days ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, a date which many military analysts believe Putin, fond of symbolism, may mark with a show of force. Aides have explored attempting to covertly get Biden across the border in Ukraine but a trip has been all but ruled out. The president is one of the last Western leaders who has not made the journey, which would require a 10-hour train ride or a daring flight. But most aides believe the security risk to Biden or Ukraine would not be worth it. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 0:46 utc | 99