Former Austrian Minister of European and International Affairs Karin Kneissl in the Sputnik piece on Hersch:
“I wouldn’t say that it’s just one big group of teenagers, but those who have to say and those who have in our time, unfortunately, the support of the published opinion, are very much into emotion, whether it’s [President of the European Commission] Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, who, I think, is in her early sixties now – I mean, she’s a far cry away from being a teenager, [German Foreign Minister] Mrs. Annalena Baerbock is in mid-forties. But they behave – all of them, in an emotional and not in a rational way. And this is the big issue. So let the adults enter the room, please.”
Fully agree. von der Leyen, who is out of her depth, looks like a teenager with a massive crush on Zelenski; Baerbock is fully in the pockets of the neo-cons and, imho, dangerous.
https://sputniknews.com/20230210/former-austrian-fm-weighs-in-on-nord-stream-sabotage-slams-emotional-eu-leaders-1107325477.html

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 17:39 utc | 4

Let me do a bit of devil’s advocate. Even though NATO propaganda is ridiculous, and evidently Russia hasn’t run out of anything yet: could the RF also supply and sustain high-intensity warfare with its much larger, mobilized, ~600,000 man army for any length of time? I don’t think we’ve seen proof of this; or maybe that could do that in the future, but not right now. In other words, maybe putting all those mobilized troops around Ukraine has elements of a bluff/feint. First we heard that they’d need 3mths re-training after getting mobilized in September; then they were waiting for winter; and now, waiting for …?
The current scale of operations isn’t going to lead to a decision/conclusion anytime soon: even with many troops pinned down in Bakhmut, Kiev was still able to rush reinforcements to Ugledar, so they seem to have both manpower and transport resources–at least for now. Same deal in Zaporozhie: one of the resident trolls was gloating here a couple weeks ago about Russia getting stalled on the “southern front”. Troll or not, seems in retrospect he was mostly right?
Russia wants forever to get taken seriously by the West, but I think the only way to get there is to address them in their own language–with a convincing show of force. As long as, say, RF hasn’t even been able to stop the shelling of Donetsk, this “Russia is losing” meme is just plausible enough to keep the show going.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6

Historical atlases show that in the Middle Ages there was ´Red Russia´, ´Black Russia´ and ´White Russia´, which may have been the origin of the Russian emperor´s title as “Tsar of all the Russias”.
It seems that White Russia was what is now Belarus, Black Russia was what is now the Ukraine and Red Russia was Muscovy which expanded north to the Arctic and east to the Urals during the Middle Ages.
Red Russia then expanded to become Great Russia, acquiring an empire stretching from Petersburg to Alaska.
In the 19th century colonial period, the Russians occupied the Turkestans and the Caucasians, which declared independence in 1989. In WW2, the Soviet Union added the Baltics which regained their independence also in 1989.
“The Ukraine” never appeared until 1917 when the victorious Germans (well Prussians, not Austrians) knocked Russia out of WW1. The Ukraine was cut out of Russia at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk but reversed when WW1 was over and reverted to Russia which transformed into the Soviet Union.
So it doesn´t surprise me that Putin doesn´t want to restore the Soviet Union but he wants to defend Russia – and that appears, from history and population, to include Black Russia, aka “The Ukraine”.
Barflies, any comment on these musings?

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 17:56 utc | 8

What we warned about and insided, now begins to go into the public plane. This is not the first time that the authorities have abandoned their defenders.
When this becomes widespread, then Zelensky’s rating will collapse.
A Ukrainian woman complains on Instagram that her husband was fired from the Armed Forces of Ukraine after losing his leg in the Bakhmut meat grinder. But that’s not all. The state does not recognize him as a war veteran, and it is almost impossible to get a disability group and social benefits. Treatment is also at your own expense. Corruption all around. Doctors want 6,000 euros for this piece of paper.
We are sure that the office, this topic will now begin to “jam”, clean up and stop. This is an image blow to Zelensky, who cannot solve the problem with all the monopoly of power. We described the risks that await the OP in the near future.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14762

Posted by: Down South | Feb 11 2023 18:03 utc | 10

‘ #9 Weeb Union – just now ..
How Russia’s Vuhledar Offensive Failed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zl-jV5Gi10

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 18:09 utc | 12

Typir. [13]
Funny, I gave up on Dima long ago – his voice was tedious and his presentation laboured. I prefer History Legends and Asia Defense with the Malaysian presenter

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 11 2023 18:18 utc | 14

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Battle for #Ugledar – #Chronicle & Rybar Analysis; Part 1/3⚡️
Photo and video 👉 footage of a broken Russian military convoy has spread around the net.
Many assigned the losses wrongly to the 155th Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, which is active in areas southeast of #Ugledar, but this is not the case.
According to the feedback bot, the equipment may have belonged to the 35th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army (sort of transferred to the operational subordination of the 29th CA).
Regardless of whose equipment it was, the incident is an extremely tragic and unpleasant episode, comparable to the losses of convoys in #Belogorovka, #Brovary, north of #Popasna, in the #Kherson region.
To understand what really happened and who was responsible for sending the column unprotected into the open field, we do a review of the fighting in the #Ugledar Area.
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Battle for #Ugledar – Rybar Analysis; Part 2/3⚡️
🔹#Chronicle of the Battle for #Ugledar
▪️ On 23-24 January, fighters from the 155th Pacific Fleet Brigade and the 7th OBTF #Kaskad swooped through the AFU defence and occupied the dacha areas west of #Nikolskoye. The general plan was for several formations to advance simultaneously with a broad front: the plan was to “take #Ugledar in a pincer”. But the Marines and #Kaskad, unfortunately, were the only ones who succeeded in breaking through the fighting lines.
Taking advantage of the effect of unexpectedness, the RF Armed Forces took the enemy by surprise: during intense fighting, they advanced towards the populated area, driving out units of the AFU’s 68th Separate Jager Infantry Brigade and 72nd Mechanized Brigade towards #Ugledar and the South Donbass mine.
▪️ On 25 January, joint efforts by Marines and Kaskadians reached dacha areas southeast of #Ugledar, entrenching themselves in private homes. Disorganisation in the ranks of the AFU allowed for entrenchment. The first reports emerged of Russian units entering the town itself.
Throughout the day, assault units of the AFU’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade tried unsuccessfully to counterattack from #Ugledar and the mine area. Nevertheless, the initial objective of the Russian troops to cut off the supply to #Ugledar was not achieved. The AFU managed to hold the line.
▪️ On 25-26 January, the Russian fighters advanced to the outskirts of the dachas. Separate assault units carried out raids on the outskirts of #Ugledar itself near the pumping station. Concurrently, an advance began from the direction of #Pavlovka towards the southwestern outskirts of #Ugledar.
However, the Ukrainian command had already begun to reinforce the defensive grouping in the town, artillery firing positions had been moved to a safe distance, and mortar crews were ceaselessly mining the approaches. In the meantime, the motorized rifle units of the RF Armed Forces were still unable to reach their planned positions.
▪️ By 27 January, the AFU was able to build a dense defence in #Ugledar. At least three companies were operating at 1km. The supply along the #Ugledar – #Konstantinovka – #Maryinka route was not cut off either physically or by fire. Ukrainian reinforcements were deployed at the main hubs.
▪️ The Marines, supported by artillery and aviation, continued fighting at the dachas near #Ugledar despite the complicated situation. The transfer of additional units of the AFU from the #Soledar direction began.
With each passing day, Ukrainian formations were pulling in more and more reserves to hold this important strategic location. Remote mining of streets and approaches continued – almost all the fields were covered in mines even before the offensive, and during the week of fighting the AFU installed over a hundred more barriers.
Marines of the 35th Naval Brigade and paratroopers of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces’ 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade arrived in #Ugledar to replace the 72nd Brigade, which had suffered heavy losses, and a battalion and tactical group was moved to #Bogatyr to create an operational reserve. Later, the 21st Battalion of the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, equipped with UAVs and night vision devices, was noted, and a few days ago a BTGr of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade was spotted near #Ugledar. ATGM crews were placed in multi-storey buildings and long-range artillery was firing at the Russian positions.
The initiative of the RF Armed Forces was intercepted!
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Battle for #Ugledar – Rybar Analysis; Part 3/3⚡️
▪️ By the end of January the offensive initiative of the RF Armed Forces had all but collapsed. Due to severe weather conditions, aviation could not operate and drones could not be used.
By February 5 the fighting had practically passed into a positional phase. The RF Armed Forces’ artillery and aviation were actively firing on the AFU concentration areas, which had lost more than two hundred men killed during the offensive.
The bodies of the dead were impossible to remove due to the lack of transport vehicles and the active fire of the Russian army. The corpses were either simply left behind or taken to the South Donbass mine, where they were abandoned. Kraken nationalists arrived to prevent fleeing the positions.
▪️ In fact, an offensive by the Marines and OBTF alone became simply impossible. Another strike from #Nikolskoye in the direction of the #Maryinka – #Ugledar route and the South Donbass mine was needed to constrain AFU resources and cut off supplies.
▪️ It was at this stage that the entry of motorized infantry troops into the battle to strike the flank of the enemy with an armored fist was imminent and could no longer be delayed. However, an adequate military plan was never properly implemented.
🔹What happened?
Before any offensive, adequate preparation – reconnaissance, artillery and engineering – is necessary to achieve the objectives. UAV crews and forward scouts identify enemy positions, while artillerymen, together with aviation, fire on strongholds and fortifications.
At the same time, Signals Intelligence teams must ensure complete suppression of communications and drones, and engineer and sapper troops must clear the surrounding terrain – otherwise the offensive is doomed to failure.
The delayed engagement of motorized infantry units and the ensuing defeat of the convoy was only possible because of the general unpreparedness of the infantry forces engaged in the area.
The mine clearance of the approaches and the inadequate use of all available electronic warfare equipment led to the predictable result of a fairly narrow opening in the minefield, through which the column of armored vehicles rushed.
The entire route was tracked by UAVs and shot through by artillery and anti-tank crews.
🔹Who is to blame?
We can lay the blame on the command of the group as much as we like but in this particular case the cause of the tragic events was the general unpreparedness of the commanders of battalion and tactical levels, the lack of teamwork of the units involved and the failure to fulfil the combat mission.
The motorized rifle units should have engaged in combat almost simultaneously with the marines, but this did not happen. The unit commanders, probably fearing punishment, reported that their subordinates were fully prepared for the assault, which was far from reality.
Because of absence of elementary cover of radio-electronic and air defence systems and also objective difficulty of full clearance of all approaches to #Ugledar and the dachas (well and insufficient efforts, we shall be honest), there was simply no other variant of movement. The entire convoy was in plain view from the AFU positions at the #Ugledar heights.
However, all the equipment was not destroyed, as the Ukrainian media claimed. Some of it was only damaged and some was left intact. Under favourable conditions it can be pulled out and repaired. Judging by the open hatches, most of the personnel were successfully evacuated, but there were fallen and, alas, they will not be returned.
📌 Fear of the chain of command, the unwillingness to use the experiences of the first SMO year and the usual bureaucracy are the main reasons for the incident. A systemic change is needed in the approach to combat operations – both at the operational-tactical and simply tactical levels. Otherwise Belogorovka and #Ugledar will be repeated from time to time.

https://t.me/sitreports/4411

Posted by: Down South | Feb 11 2023 18:25 utc | 16

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6

could the RF also supply and sustain high-intensity warfare with its much larger, mobilized, ~600,000 man army for any length of time? I don’t think we’ve seen proof of this

I certainly don’t see any proof that Russia can’t sustain it’s intensity level; also remember that 600,000 mobilised personnel is not the same as 600,000 front line troops. There will be maintenance techs, medics, quartermasters, caterers, fuellers and all manner of other supporting cast involved in the 600,000.

The current scale of operations isn’t going to lead to a decision/conclusion anytime soon: even with many troops pinned down in Bakhmut, Kiev was still able to rush reinforcements to Ugledar, so they seem to have both manpower and transport resources–at least for now. Same deal in Zaporozhie: one of the resident trolls was gloating here a couple weeks ago about Russia getting stalled on the “southern front”. Troll or not, seems in retrospect he was mostly right?

In your view, why do they need to rush things? Where’s the hurry?

Russia wants forever to get taken seriously by the West

I’m not sure how true that is nowadays. KarlofI, among others, is indefatigable in providing translations of statements and speeches from figures in the Russian leadership. When I read these I detect a tone of exasperation, an unwillingness to tolerate any further the ignorance, arrogance and sheer rudeness shown by much of Western so-called ‘leadership’ towards the Russian nation. It seems to me that Russia wants the concept of a multipolar world to be taken seriously and there are increasing signs, to my eyes at least, that the West will not be getting any choice in this.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 11 2023 18:27 utc | 18

My comment under an article about Hersh on consortium news:
Jörgen Hassler
February 11, 2023 at 04:43
I’m sorry but I’m not impressed by Hershs piece.
First of all, as Murray points out, most of it consists of known facts.
As for the new part, a source with insight into the working of utter most high level political figures in Washington talks to a reporter about top secret acts in a still ongoing war.
Since there would be very few people that have this information, and since the leak would render him or her life in prison if found out you would have to ask: why?
Then there is the planning in it self. It reads like a thriller. Which it probably is, it’s simply too smooth to be real.
And then there is the modus operandi:
“ The pipelines ran more than a mile apart along a seafloor that was only 260 feet deep. That would be well within the range of the divers, who, operating from a Norwegian Alta class mine hunter, would dive with a mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and helium streaming from their tanks, and plant shaped C4 charges on the four pipelines with concrete protective covers. ”
First: the pipes don’t run ON the sea floor, they run below it to be protected from external forces.
Second: they are 4-5 centimetres of steel covered by about a decimetre of steel reinforced concrete.
The idea that diver alone first cleared the pipes, then placed the huge amount of c4 needed is imaginative, but a bit far fetched: most operators would have used machines for the job.
My take on this is that while Hersh is probably sincere, chances are high that he is being used as a pawn in a game of blame shifting.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 18:36 utc | 20

“ Russia wants forever to get taken seriously by the West” #6
I don’t think at this moment of time Russia gives any thought about what West thinks. Obviously they have their plan and they stick to it. Many people have pointed out that current situation at front suites their objectives of demilitarising Ukraine. They are destroying their manpower and equipment and this seems to be what currently matters.
Once they decide to unleash the accumulated forces they will be fully ready and fully supplied. That moment might be timed to meet some other objectives, potentially outside battle theatre in Ukraine.

Posted by: Milos | Feb 11 2023 18:45 utc | 22

@21
But the pipelines WERE destroyed. Whatever the means. Whatever their protection by steel and concrete. And we do know who gloated over their destruction and who benefited from this. So your interpretation is not impressive to me. It’s clear where the blame rests, so don’t sidetrack this!

Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 18:50 utc | 24

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 11 2023 18:18 utc | 14
I must admit I did the same.

Posted by: Milos | Feb 11 2023 18:53 utc | 26

OK Bigger Picture – consequences of this 1st “war” on future Geoecomomics, Geopolitics, Multipolarity due to the ….
2nd WAR – economics and sanctions etc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGBAKRzoJ1o
Attempt by US to economically seriously damage Russia, hence weakening the China-Russian joint potential. China – yes China. Europe has been neatly de=coupled and chained and chained to Uncle Sam’s

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 19:13 utc | 28

@LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2023 18:44 utc | 22
Thanks for that link. Can’t find much to disagree with.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 11 2023 19:26 utc | 30

Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
First we heard that they’d need 3mths re-training after getting mobilized in September;
then they were waiting for winter;
and now, waiting for …?
You/ we heard NONE of those claims from Russian MoD. Or Lavrov or Putin or anyone with any actual clue about what the Russians were planning and intending.
All claims are made by western pundits.
Some with books to sell or yt to monetize.
Some who just like to hear themselves speak.
Anyone worth listening to, like Brian Berletic, made no such claim.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 11 2023 19:48 utc | 32

In WW2, the Soviet Union added the Baltics which regained their independence also in 1989.
“The Ukraine” never appeared until 1917 when the victorious Germans (well Prussians, not Austrians) knocked Russia out of WW1.
[…]
Barflies, any comment on these musings?
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 17:56 utc | 8

A bit of a correction needed here.
Latia and Estonia also never existed as independent entities prior to 1917. They were independent between 1918 and 1940 and then since 1989.
Lithuania is the sole exception, being a proper country in the Middle Ages, and the other half of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
But the other three (if you add Finland, which used to be grouped in the “Baltics” once upon a time) are modern constructs.
The idea of “Estonia” emerged in the 19th century. And it is fairly artificial — it is really just Finnish speaking people who live on the southern side of the Gulf of Finland as opposed to on the northern side. Then the language started differentiating further, once an ethnic consciousness emerged. But at least it is somewhat homogeneous (aside from the large Russian population within the current territory).
Finnish speaking people also populated Ingria and Karelia, the regions south, east and north of St. Petersburg, and there are still some of them there, but they will be assimilated in the not too distant future.
Latvia was amalgamated somewhere in the early modern period from Curonians, Semigallians, Selonians and Latgalians, who were Baltic (i.e. Indo-European tribes) and the Livonians to the north, who were Finno-Ugric (i.e. not Indo-European), with not real tradition of proper statehood. And real nationalism is again, as is usually the case, a 19th-century phenomenon.
Finland also has a very short history of an independent nation, and probably wouldn’t even exist today if it wasn’t for Russia taking it away from Sweden — the Swedes would have assimilated them by now. Same for Estonia, BTW, as in that alternative timeline Russia perhaps does not take Estonia either. Finland became independent in 1918, but it was already given a lot of autonomy for a century prior to that.
The only reason these countries are independent rather than having the same status as e.g. the Udmurts, the Mari, and all the other Finno-Ugric people who are buried deep in the Russian heartland is that they were on the periphery, which made it possible for Western powers to tear them off the Russian core. Quite literally — without the Western intervention in the Russian Civil War the Bolsheviks likely manage to recover both the Baltics and Finland, and quite possibly don’t have to set the whole SSR (with a right to secession) time bomb as a concession to nationalism.
Finally, we have the *-stans in Central Asia. Those are all completely artificial constructs of the USSR. It was just a bunch of tribes with very little in terms of statehood tradition. Yes, the region around Bukhara and Samarkand had a rich history of great states and empires being centered around it going back thousands of years, but in the 19th century, when the Tsars conquered Central Asia, it was all tribal. Then the Bolsheviks actually sat down and tried to sort it out somehow into “nations”. It’s not even clear how much demand there was for that really — the current borders and ethnic delineations date to 1936, not to the period immediately after the Civil War as is the case with the concessions made to Ukrainian nationalism and to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Side note: Georgia and Armenia are proper countries with very ancient history that got conquered by the Tsars (likely for their own good — they would have been genocided out of existence by the Turks had that not been the case). Azerbaijan on the other hand is another artificial historical accident — it is basically just Shia Turks, and most of them live in Iran, not in the country Azerbaijan…
But Kazakhstan is probably the most absurd of those creations and the biggest own goal of them all, as it now occupies a gigantic amount of strategically very important territory, and it is quite likely we will see a war over it in the future too.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 19:52 utc | 34

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 11 2023 18:47 utc | 24
The most important thing about the article is that it shifts the blame away from Britain and argues that the act was legal according to US law. That’s the actual main message.
The rest is mostly old news and cool scenery.
And Norway eager to attack denmark and Sweden to make more money from gas exports. Really? Have you ever been to Norway? Met the norweigans?
I used to be an investigative journalist, so I recognise poor craftsmanship when I see it. I’m sorry but the story is very weak, regardless of what the ramifications of the headline might be.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 19:55 utc | 36

Today’s Global Times editorial contains some interesting observations about what’s called “democracy” by the Outlaw US Empire, “Aggressiveness of US democracy derived from hegemony, bullying and domineering: Global Times editorial”:

In “US democracy,” there is a stable structure that consists of hegemony, bullying and domineering. Hegemony is the core goal, bullying is the way of action, and domineering is the behavioral characteristic. The three may change in their external manifestations according to the increase and decline of the US’ own strength, but their essence will not change, and it is engraved in “US democracy.” To international observers, this is obvious.
The three words are prominently reflected in the US’ control and monopoly of the right to interpret the connotation of modern democracy. It does not allow a second interpretation. It wants to pull out all the “flowers” that grow naturally in the garden of human political civilization and leave only the single seed of “US democracy.” However, this goes against the general trend of multi-polarization and diversification. The US can only think about it, but not actually do it, making it look distorted and deformed, sometimes hypocritical and sometimes hideous.

I’ll leave the rest for barflies to explore. IMO, the conclusion is excellent but well beyond Biden’s ability to understand, same with most within Washington DC.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 11 2023 20:05 utc | 38

back to detail ..
Wagner Captures Krasna Hora | Quick Front Update 11/02/23
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5Wrdn-Un-E

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 20:08 utc | 40

As I replied to John Marks query on the previous thread, Russia is busy liberating former Russian Empire lands that were never really Ukrainian as the genuine history proves. Galicia will be cast adrift while Kiev will likely become a city-state and while repudiating all debt incurred by Ukraine since 1991. And the term Ukraine will again sink into the mists of time only to be recollected in history books. Time will prove or disprove the accuracy of my prediction.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 11 2023 20:10 utc | 42

Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
us and nato would be supplying a quagmire in ukranistan a far distance over railroads and roads from the limited output they could deliver……..
usanatostan would redo afghanistan where the other guy can shoot down their ‘assets’.

Posted by: paddy | Feb 11 2023 20:16 utc | 44

@John Marks | Feb 11 2023 17:56 utc | 8
Kyiv was the mother of Moscow, a thousand years ago. Then the two got dominated by different groups of foreigners.
Russia got the small, landlocked “Ukraine” (borderland) from Poland/Lithuania in the 17th Century.
In the 18th Century, Russia conquered what became Novorossiya, basically the area that Putin overran last February. The Soviets around 1921 stapled Novorossiya together with little Ukraine, and then Stalin added Galicia to Ukraine, and then Kruschev added Crimea.

Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 11 2023 20:20 utc | 46

John Schmeeckle | Feb 11 2023 20:20 utc | 47
And together, all the pieces become a Frankenstein’s monster.
Dismemberment is now necessary.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 11 2023 20:23 utc | 48

karlof1 @ 39
Who knew the Chinese were so cool:

It wants to pull out all the “flowers” that grow naturally in the garden of human political civilization and leave only the single seed of “US democracy.”

Sheriff John Brown always hated me,
for what, I don’t know.
Every time I plant a seed,
he said kill it before it grow.
He said kill them before they grow, and so-and-so.
Read it in the news!
I Shot The Sheriff – Bob Marley and the Wailers

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 11 2023 20:25 utc | 50

Kyiv was the mother of Moscow, a thousand years ago. Then the two got dominated by different groups of foreigners.
Russia got the small, landlocked “Ukraine” (borderland) from Poland/Lithuania in the 17th Century.
In the 18th Century, Russia conquered what became Novorossiya, basically the area that Putin overran last February. The Soviets around 1921 stapled Novorossiya together with little Ukraine, and then Stalin added Galicia to Ukraine, and then Kruschev added Crimea.
Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 11 2023 20:20 utc | 47

Two additional important details — Volhynia (Lutsk + Rovno) was recovered during the Second and Third partitions of Poland in 1793 and 1795.
And Stalin also added Transcarpathia, which was a different step from adding Galicia — Galicia was added during the 1939 partition of Poland, Transcarpathia after the war ended.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:31 utc | 52

@Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
Russia is fully prepared for a regional war with NATO, and since 2018 NO credible study has reflected that NATO could beat Russia in a non-nuclear regional war. Even though the Ukraine is controlled, financed, supplied, trained and supported by NATO it remains far weaker than NATO. Which is why it is literally incredible that Ukraine could avoid being forced to surrender to Russia unless they negotiate a ceasefire before that happens.

Posted by: Hermit | Feb 11 2023 20:38 utc | 54

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 11 2023 20:10 utc | 42
“Norway obeys the United States and the European Union in its foreign policy.“ That’s true. And it’s possible that a norwegian minesweeper played some role, if so probably recognisence.
But a boat with a crew of about 30 isn’t suited for such an extensive terrorist attack. It’s too small to carry the equipment needed.
And being an obedient servant is a long way from actively attacking your neighbours for fun and profit. You haven’t attacked us since 1788. I don’t think you are about to start now.
That part seems like a figment of a typical US imagination, because it’s something that they would definitely do.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 20:45 utc | 56

@40
you really don’t want to get it.
The means by which these pipelines were destroyed don’t matter (and unless you are very deep in matters of undersea destruction you won’t be able to decide on what is possible or not, but this risks becoming another 9/11 discussion so let us leave that for now…). The whole point is they actually were destroyed and the USA was behind it. And if someone in Norway benefited, why, they wouldn’t care about their neighbours. Or do you really think Norwegians are morally superior?

Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 20:49 utc | 58

Russia is fully prepared for a regional war with NATO, and since 2018 NO credible study has reflected that NATO could beat Russia in a non-nuclear regional war. Even though the Ukraine is controlled, financed, supplied, trained and supported by NATO it remains far weaker than NATO. Which is why it is literally incredible that Ukraine could avoid being forced to surrender to Russia unless they negotiate a ceasefire before that happens.
Posted by: Hermit | Feb 11 2023 20:38 utc | 55

It should also always be pointed out that the current war is being fought under much more unfavorable rules of engagement than an open conventional war with NATO would be.
Right now NATO is using Ukraine to do the shooting while it provides the targeting and the weapons.
And Russia is not allowed to take out NATO’s ISR and rear.
Also, the current war is a hostage operation, which greatly limits the power of the weapons used. E.g. Ugledar would be simply wiped off the map altogether under different circumstances — it really isn’t needed on its own, it just needs to be removed as an obstacle — but there are still 1,500 Russian civilians there so you can’t do that, and it has been the same story in one village and town after another.
There is also the murky issue of various Russian business interests involving Ukraine vetoing striking certain targets.
All this creates a major asymmetry that would not exist in an open confrontation with NATO and beyond Ukraine (with the exception of Estonia and Latvia where there is also a large Russian population).
That is why all those studies point to Russia winning against NATO while the current war is such a slog.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:58 utc | 60

I see the NS sabotage debate of Norway (or not) UK (or not) Poland (or not) Estonia (or not) continues.
What 90% here agree is that the US was the driver of this enterprise. No one is 100% sure of the other participants, if any.
It is in the USA’s interests to keep the covert team involved as small as possible to avoid potential detection and leaks as small as possible. The closer a participant is to Russia, the more likely that their team and communications have been compromised by spies.
There was no technical or logistical reason that the USA could not have done this alone. Why make it more complicated and risky than it needed to be?

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 11 2023 21:06 utc | 62

I fully recognize where the war in Ukraine is heading. It is heading towards devastating war within the USA and most NATO nations.
When I was a young lad, many of the older generations would have quickly agreed with me. Actually, they would have been telling me that is where the current escalation was heading. I was born 7 years after WWII ended.
Many of the older generation experienced the horrors of WWII. Now 77 years have passed since WWII ended. And that generation is now pretty much gone. And their word of reason and caution has pretty much been thrown to the wayside.
Most in the West have not experienced the horrors of war. Only a few (relative to their populations) alive today have fought in any real war or even in a battle.
Yet, today those who never experienced war or even where in a military for a few years are running the policial show. They go about with inpunity thinking that they command the new direction for their countries and their people. They walk about with disgusting pride. Yet, they have no moral fiber or fear of God or any real concern for their peoples.
They will soon see themselves in the war trap. Hopefully, some of them will wake up and repent of their evil ways before it is too late for their future eternity.
The words of Jesus are pretty much rejected today when he said “blessed are the peacemakers”. Those who have not experienced war have no idea how important those words are for them and for a world that about to plunge into very dark war times.
Jesus will return. Then there will be peace, but not until then.

Posted by: young | Feb 11 2023 21:15 utc | 64

@63
As to the Americans, or at least their politicians and 3-letter agencies, I wholeheartedly agree. But using that argument, Mobutu was a honest fellow and Goebbels very trustworthy.
Anyway, I don’t care about the means and you can’t deny the impact of the article because of technical details.
Consider the alternatives:
Spontaneous combustion as in a Charles Dickens novel? Well, those pipelines were utterly evil, were they not?
Or miniature submarines with suicidal Russian gnomes travelling through them?
Iranian drones?
Now really…

Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 21:18 utc | 66

Finally, a referral to James Bond. I suggest Thunderball and its underwater apparat.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 11 2023 21:22 utc | 68

Jesus will return. Then there will be peace, but not until then.
Posted by: young | Feb 11 2023 21:15 utc | 66
Amen, brother! I am under no delusion that any of us can change what has already been written, but as for my me and my family, we have accepted the blood of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, and so we fear no earthly evil. We are ready to be called home when the time comes. I know many Americans are ready, but plenty will never know His love. Go Chiefs!

Posted by: LGB! | Feb 11 2023 21:23 utc | 70

Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 19:13 utc | 29
Thank for the link. Didn’t know this prof Richard Wolff until now, i’ll dig in..his summary is concise and clear.( also appreciate the yellow vest in the back..)
B shared a link few days ago in his weekly brief to an Emmanuel Todd’s conference, but it was in french. Todd made a most récent interview , and someone had the good idea to sub translate it in english :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAUD1gxEWxE
good food for brain

Posted by: malamatias | Feb 11 2023 21:30 utc | 72

“since 2018 NO credible study has reflected that NATO could beat Russia in a non-nuclear regional war”
Do you have some links to these studies? Posted by: Bill Smith | Feb 11 2023 20:59 utc | 62
If there are no studies, links would be problematic.

Posted by: jr | Feb 11 2023 21:34 utc | 74

# 35 thanks for the history information.

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 11 2023 21:40 utc | 76

reply to 30
I speculate that the “Russia is losing” meme might be of great value to Russia. We debate whether NATO will intervene or nuclear war will erupt. However, this wishful thinking that underpins the official narrative may stay their hand. If this seems stupid or crazy (um….it is), I offer the example of the National Interest recently posting an essay from a primary author on how the new tanks etc. would bring defeat to Russia with all confidence. There was a follow up from an academic who expressed great puzzlement about this, so not everyone is being fooled.
I am also reminded of George III expressing shock that the Colonies won independence. Overconfidence by one’s enemy can be quite handy.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 11 2023 21:51 utc | 78

@61 Russia needs to shoot the hostages, to get through to the ukrainians. If they’re there willingly, then its not loss. If they won’t leave its not because they dont know its a warzone. Seems to me to be consent to become collateral damage, pro russian or not. Theyres like a couple dozen buildings in Krasna Gora for instance. The whole area should be fine powder by now, but weeks and weeks taking pot shots at it. Weak. That is weakness on display.
Same for their troops, sacrificing them well, not in armored columns out in the open going down a road in a straight line, is also necessary. Russia’s holding back the Wagner group, why? Because they are inexplicably stupid, or fighting against themselves, ie riddled with traitors. And the traitors are stupid too, because obviously no deal they think they’re making will be upheld. Its ludicrous to think that Nalvany would be allowed to exercise any power even if he got into power. Lord only knows what deal he thinks he has, or the belarussian opposition dummys. They will get fucked like a used condom, dropped as necessary when the countries are annexed and dismembered. Greater Ukraine anyone? nope. even if they get it all back, whos going to fix the country? Do they really think the germans will rebuild it and give it to them? Ukrainian may be the dumbest of the lot.
Thermobaric the whole towns, mine all the airfields with those banned mines that Ukraine has polluted the whole country with. any number of things. The longer they hold to their holier than thou bullshit, the weaker they are.

Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Feb 11 2023 21:59 utc | 80

I’ve now read a a half dozen German newspaper responces to Hersh. They are all exceedingly hostile, and bend over backwards to pour scorn and ridicule on him. None of the supposed factual errors they cite seem credible to me save for one: Hersh says Jens Stoltenberg has worked with US intelligence since the Vietnam War, which makes no sense, because he was still a minor when the war ended.
All also make a big deal of him supposedly having only one source. But I don’t see how they could know this. Hersh refers to “the source” for particular claims, but it is not at all clear that the entire story is based on a single source.
Still, it would be nice if he’d clarify this matter, and also correct his statement about Stoltenberg.

Posted by: GuardYourHumanity | Feb 11 2023 22:08 utc | 82

@West of England Andy | Feb 11 2023 18:27 utc | 19
>>In your view, why do they need to rush things?
>>Where’s the hurry?
I have no qualification to tell Russia what it needs to do. But I’m not at all sold on this “slower is better” mantra. For instance, “slower is better” failed to establish a sufficient buffer around Kherson, because “you can always take that land later”. But the result was that the Antonovsky bridge and the Kakhovka dam remained in range of Ukie strikes; by the time the problem was acknowledged, Russia was short of troops and mud season was on the way, in the end leading to the loss of that whole bridgehead across the Dniepr. Similarly, Russia is now killing on the battlefield men who have been mobilized from say Kharkov and Sumy, who would have been civilians and alive under Russian rule if those places had been taken right at the start of the SMO. But no, “muh limited operation, we can always take those cities later”. Well even if you can, it won’t be the same now Russia killed scores of their children.
In addition, the fortifications which apparently are so tough and costly to crack in Donbass are now also getting built elsewhere, incl. in places which Russia withdrew from last March as a “goodwill gesture”, as if the Kiev junta were ever going to respond to those.
———————————–
@LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2023 19:17 utc | 30
>>Sometimes people get confused and think that narrative builds
>>an Empire. Nope. Narrative is a consequence of Empire.
Be that as it may, but as long as that narrative “Ukraine is winning (or at least it can win)” survives, it seems Ukrainians will be sending their children to the slaughter. So at least in this case, I think that narrative matters.
———————————–
@shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:58 utc | 61
>>There is also the murky issue of various Russian business interests involving Ukraine vetoing striking certain targets.
I’ve often wondered about this. Say what you want of the ukies but they pursue this thing no holds barred, with a “whatever it takes” mentality–even as that makes them commit repugnant acts. On the Russian side, besides the laws of war there seem to be also unwritten rules about stuff that just can’t be touched because it belongs to someone who’s somebody etc.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 22:12 utc | 84

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 11 2023 21:06 utc | 64
they wanted to get the Germans and Swedes and Norwegians etc on board. that’s the reason, pretend it was a mutual decision; they still claim NATO isn’t the US and a bunch of poodles.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 11 2023 22:18 utc | 86

These attacks might be them breaking up large groupings so Ukraine can’t steamroll them
Posted by: OohCanada | Feb 11 2023 18:05 utc | 11
————————————–
I am sorry, WHO is doing the breaking up and WHO is doing the steam rolling?

Posted by: Ed | Feb 11 2023 22:24 utc | 88

Beware. Caution. Keep heads down.
Russia’s MFA spokeswoman is at it again with a Henckels in hand.
Russian diplomat warns Germany’s Baerbock against making irreparable mistake on Ukraine

[.]
MOSCOW, February 11. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has warned German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who admitted that her words about Europe being at war with Russia had been a mistake, against making irreparable mistakes concerning Ukraine, Zakharova wrote on her Telegram channel on Saturday.
Earlier on Saturday, Baerbock admitted that she had made a mistake claiming in late January that the European Union “is fighting a war with Russia.” “The one who doesn’t make mistakes, doesn’t live,” Baerbock quoted this saying in an interview with Der Tagesspiegel newspaper, explaining her words.
According to Zakharova, it was a pivotal statement of Baerbock.
“Once you realize your mistake sincerely, you will understand this. You have to.
However, if you are hypocritical again, you are making an irreparable mistake this time,” Zakharova wrote.
The Russian diplomat called on the German foreign minister “if you believe that everyone has the right to make mistakes because it is part of human life, stop engaging in escalating the crisis that leads to killings of people with Western weapons.”[.]

Earlier in the SMO Russia was critiqued for being too slow on the response trigger. Now not a beat is missed.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 11 2023 22:28 utc | 90

I don’t know about “studies” but I’m pretty sure Hermit was referring to wargames in which NATO loses to Russia (and China) far more often than it wins.
https://sofrep.com/news/this-wargame-revealed-russias-supremacy-over-nato/
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/nato-could-lose-war-russia-wargame-shows-how-174305
Those are just the first two Google results for “NATO wargame Russia.”

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2023 22:39 utc | 92

Nemesis Calling: In case you’re reading I haven’t forgotten your question from the other day. If I can finally finish my book this evening and tomorrow morning, I’ll provide my answer in the O/T (Week in Review) tomorrow (Sunday) evening.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2023 22:43 utc | 94

I agree with you about Turkestan, particularly the excessive northward extension of Kazakhstan but as long as the Kazakhs play ball with Russia, that will stand.
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 21:20 utc | 69

Well, that’s the thing — the US tried to do a coup there a year ago, and I see random bits here and there of increasingly Russophobic Kazakh nationalism. So it may well come to an open confrontation sooner or later.
Kazakhstan is in way even more dangerous than Ukraine for Russia. Many of the key nuclear and military-industrial sites are right at or very close to the border, as they were put there in Soviet times, when those were the positions most distant from the Soviet borders and coasts, and thus the most secure locations.
Imagine what an US aligned Kazakhstan would mean in terms of security for Russia (and for China too).
So if the Kazakhs are stupid enough to allow their own Maidan to go down successfully, there will be a war. And I am far from 100% certain such a scenario is unlikely.

Azerbaijan is playing a dangerous game flirting between Turkey and Persia, with Armenian claims in the west and a solid block of Lezgian territory in the north. I foresee Azerbaijan being partitioned between Armenia, Russian Lezgia and Turkey in the future as Islamic influence wanes due to Shia-Sunni tensions, like Catholic-Protestant ones in Ireland. That may spill over into Persian Azerbaijan depending on whether Shia religion or Turkish nationality is more important for the inhabitants.

On the surface Azerbaijan seems to be doing well so far, and to be on an upward trajectory. But that’s on the surface. We will see. Especially once the oil and gas run out, then there isn’t much of an economy left there, and we have a problem…

But my main interest is in what you and the barflies think will be the future of what is currently called “the Ukraine”. I would think the Russians would want to expunge the idea of “the Ukraine” (´borderland´) and rename what’s left Black Russia or Chornarus (cf. White Russia -> Belarus). I would see Chornarus comprising the eight oblasts of Kiev, Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Elizavetgrad (Kirovograd), Poltava and Chernigov at most. The rest of the erstwhile Ukraine would be Russian oblasts, viz. Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Crimea, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Lugansk, Xarkov and Sumy.
What do you and the bar think?

De-Ukrainization is an absolute must. There will never be peace without that.
It will take generations, but it will have to be done.
And the very idea of “Ukraine” must become as toxic as “Nazi Germany”. It is quite the same thing at this point anyway, so this is not an unreasonable objective at all.
But what do you do with Lutsk, Rovno, and especially the Lvov/Ternopol/Ivano-Frankovsk triangle, which is where the poison flows from? That will be hard to do without outright ethnic cleansing…

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 22:45 utc | 96

Simple is best, I doubt the logistics of whats been put forward, the sheer weight of explosive needed would be prohibitive for divers.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 11 2023 21:53 utc | 81
—————————-
I am not sure, the subject is above my paygrade, but maybe an open signal could be detected if strong enough to guide a missile or three from a serious distance.
Also, there is the possibility that missile debris could be found during an investigation and traced back to the source.
Also, perhaps the missile trajectories could be determined and traced back to any ships or planes in the area at the time of the explosions.
I’m not saying I know because I have no training in this area and I could be completely off base. Just speculation on my part. Do you have training in this area Mark2?

Posted by: Ed | Feb 11 2023 22:46 utc | 98

Kievan forces might get Storm Shadow with ranges of five hundred sixty kilometers.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-prepared-to-use-british-missiles-to-strike-crimea-d73rlk23p
I wonder when Kiev will get MGM-140 ATACMS.

Posted by: Morena | Feb 11 2023 22:50 utc | 100