Ukraine Open Thread 2023-36
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on February 11, 2023 at 16:57 UTC | Permalink
next page »@unimperator | Feb 11 2023 17:03 utc | 1
"We are not ready to face Russia"Stoltenberg is guilty of more than a crime, he is guilty of making mistakes. He should be defending himself in a war crimes tribunal.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 11 2023 17:26 utc | 2
Former Austrian Minister of European and International Affairs Karin Kneissl in the Sputnik piece on Hersch:
“I wouldn't say that it's just one big group of teenagers, but those who have to say and those who have in our time, unfortunately, the support of the published opinion, are very much into emotion, whether it's [President of the European Commission] Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, who, I think, is in her early sixties now - I mean, she's a far cry away from being a teenager, [German Foreign Minister] Mrs. Annalena Baerbock is in mid-forties. But they behave - all of them, in an emotional and not in a rational way. And this is the big issue. So let the adults enter the room, please.”
Fully agree. von der Leyen, who is out of her depth, looks like a teenager with a massive crush on Zelenski; Baerbock is fully in the pockets of the neo-cons and, imho, dangerous.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 17:39 utc | 4
Posted by: b | Feb 11 2023 17:39 utc | 3
Shame on you! :) no worries
Posted by: Macpott | Feb 11 2023 17:39 utc | 5
Let me do a bit of devil's advocate. Even though NATO propaganda is ridiculous, and evidently Russia hasn't run out of anything yet: could the RF also supply and sustain high-intensity warfare with its much larger, mobilized, ~600,000 man army for any length of time? I don't think we've seen proof of this; or maybe that could do that in the future, but not right now. In other words, maybe putting all those mobilized troops around Ukraine has elements of a bluff/feint. First we heard that they'd need 3mths re-training after getting mobilized in September; then they were waiting for winter; and now, waiting for ...?
The current scale of operations isn't going to lead to a decision/conclusion anytime soon: even with many troops pinned down in Bakhmut, Kiev was still able to rush reinforcements to Ugledar, so they seem to have both manpower and transport resources--at least for now. Same deal in Zaporozhie: one of the resident trolls was gloating here a couple weeks ago about Russia getting stalled on the "southern front". Troll or not, seems in retrospect he was mostly right?
Russia wants forever to get taken seriously by the West, but I think the only way to get there is to address them in their own language--with a convincing show of force. As long as, say, RF hasn't even been able to stop the shelling of Donetsk, this "Russia is losing" meme is just plausible enough to keep the show going.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
if that would work then it would have worked one of the last times such a mess happened but well as you can see it didnt
Now it is more a game of patience - something we in the west are not that good in
Posted by: Macpott | Feb 11 2023 17:48 utc | 7
Historical atlases show that in the Middle Ages there was ´Red Russia´, ´Black Russia´ and ´White Russia´, which may have been the origin of the Russian emperor´s title as "Tsar of all the Russias".
It seems that White Russia was what is now Belarus, Black Russia was what is now the Ukraine and Red Russia was Muscovy which expanded north to the Arctic and east to the Urals during the Middle Ages.
Red Russia then expanded to become Great Russia, acquiring an empire stretching from Petersburg to Alaska.
In the 19th century colonial period, the Russians occupied the Turkestans and the Caucasians, which declared independence in 1989. In WW2, the Soviet Union added the Baltics which regained their independence also in 1989.
"The Ukraine" never appeared until 1917 when the victorious Germans (well Prussians, not Austrians) knocked Russia out of WW1. The Ukraine was cut out of Russia at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk but reversed when WW1 was over and reverted to Russia which transformed into the Soviet Union.
So it doesn´t surprise me that Putin doesn´t want to restore the Soviet Union but he wants to defend Russia - and that appears, from history and population, to include Black Russia, aka "The Ukraine".
Barflies, any comment on these musings?
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 17:56 utc | 8
What we warned about and insided, now begins to go into the public plane. This is not the first time that the authorities have abandoned their defenders.When this becomes widespread, then Zelensky's rating will collapse.
A Ukrainian woman complains on Instagram that her husband was fired from the Armed Forces of Ukraine after losing his leg in the Bakhmut meat grinder. But that's not all. The state does not recognize him as a war veteran, and it is almost impossible to get a disability group and social benefits. Treatment is also at your own expense. Corruption all around. Doctors want 6,000 euros for this piece of paper.
We are sure that the office, this topic will now begin to "jam", clean up and stop. This is an image blow to Zelensky, who cannot solve the problem with all the monopoly of power. We described the risks that await the OP in the near future.
https://t.me/legitimniy/14762
Posted by: Down South | Feb 11 2023 18:03 utc | 10
@Ma Laoshi #7
The Ukies and western media keep saying Russia's big offensive not the Russian's. They might be "bluffing" but Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of troops forcing Russia to have the same amount of troops in the area.
These attacks might be them breaking up large groupings so Ukraine can't steamroll them
Posted by: OohCanada | Feb 11 2023 18:05 utc | 11
' #9 Weeb Union - just now ..
How Russia's Vuhledar Offensive Failed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zl-jV5Gi10
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 18:09 utc | 12
Military Summary (Dima) says that Russia requested negotiations today? He says that it means that some Russian offensive would start soon.
Dima is the best.
Posted by: Typir | Feb 11 2023 18:11 utc | 13
Typir. [13]
Funny, I gave up on Dima long ago - his voice was tedious and his presentation laboured. I prefer History Legends and Asia Defense with the Malaysian presenter
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 11 2023 18:18 utc | 14
Yes, that seems to be the pattern. A "last chance to talk" warning then Boom!!!
But Russia also says that it is the "not agreement capable" US/UK who must negotiate. Neither of those countries is feeling any significant pain and have zero concern for the lives of Ukrainians.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 11 2023 18:22 utc | 15
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Battle for #Ugledar - #Chronicle & Rybar Analysis; Part 1/3⚡️Photo and video 👉 footage of a broken Russian military convoy has spread around the net.
Many assigned the losses wrongly to the 155th Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, which is active in areas southeast of #Ugledar, but this is not the case.
According to the feedback bot, the equipment may have belonged to the 35th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army (sort of transferred to the operational subordination of the 29th CA).
Regardless of whose equipment it was, the incident is an extremely tragic and unpleasant episode, comparable to the losses of convoys in #Belogorovka, #Brovary, north of #Popasna, in the #Kherson region.
To understand what really happened and who was responsible for sending the column unprotected into the open field, we do a review of the fighting in the #Ugledar Area.
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Battle for #Ugledar - Rybar Analysis; Part 2/3⚡️
🔹#Chronicle of the Battle for #Ugledar
▪️ On 23-24 January, fighters from the 155th Pacific Fleet Brigade and the 7th OBTF #Kaskad swooped through the AFU defence and occupied the dacha areas west of #Nikolskoye. The general plan was for several formations to advance simultaneously with a broad front: the plan was to "take #Ugledar in a pincer". But the Marines and #Kaskad, unfortunately, were the only ones who succeeded in breaking through the fighting lines.
Taking advantage of the effect of unexpectedness, the RF Armed Forces took the enemy by surprise: during intense fighting, they advanced towards the populated area, driving out units of the AFU's 68th Separate Jager Infantry Brigade and 72nd Mechanized Brigade towards #Ugledar and the South Donbass mine.
▪️ On 25 January, joint efforts by Marines and Kaskadians reached dacha areas southeast of #Ugledar, entrenching themselves in private homes. Disorganisation in the ranks of the AFU allowed for entrenchment. The first reports emerged of Russian units entering the town itself.
Throughout the day, assault units of the AFU's 72nd Mechanized Brigade tried unsuccessfully to counterattack from #Ugledar and the mine area. Nevertheless, the initial objective of the Russian troops to cut off the supply to #Ugledar was not achieved. The AFU managed to hold the line.
▪️ On 25-26 January, the Russian fighters advanced to the outskirts of the dachas. Separate assault units carried out raids on the outskirts of #Ugledar itself near the pumping station. Concurrently, an advance began from the direction of #Pavlovka towards the southwestern outskirts of #Ugledar.
However, the Ukrainian command had already begun to reinforce the defensive grouping in the town, artillery firing positions had been moved to a safe distance, and mortar crews were ceaselessly mining the approaches. In the meantime, the motorized rifle units of the RF Armed Forces were still unable to reach their planned positions.
▪️ By 27 January, the AFU was able to build a dense defence in #Ugledar. At least three companies were operating at 1km. The supply along the #Ugledar - #Konstantinovka - #Maryinka route was not cut off either physically or by fire. Ukrainian reinforcements were deployed at the main hubs.
▪️ The Marines, supported by artillery and aviation, continued fighting at the dachas near #Ugledar despite the complicated situation. The transfer of additional units of the AFU from the #Soledar direction began.
With each passing day, Ukrainian formations were pulling in more and more reserves to hold this important strategic location. Remote mining of streets and approaches continued - almost all the fields were covered in mines even before the offensive, and during the week of fighting the AFU installed over a hundred more barriers.
Marines of the 35th Naval Brigade and paratroopers of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces' 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade arrived in #Ugledar to replace the 72nd Brigade, which had suffered heavy losses, and a battalion and tactical group was moved to #Bogatyr to create an operational reserve. Later, the 21st Battalion of the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, equipped with UAVs and night vision devices, was noted, and a few days ago a BTGr of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade was spotted near #Ugledar. ATGM crews were placed in multi-storey buildings and long-range artillery was firing at the Russian positions.
The initiative of the RF Armed Forces was intercepted!
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Battle for #Ugledar - Rybar Analysis; Part 3/3⚡️
▪️ By the end of January the offensive initiative of the RF Armed Forces had all but collapsed. Due to severe weather conditions, aviation could not operate and drones could not be used.
By February 5 the fighting had practically passed into a positional phase. The RF Armed Forces' artillery and aviation were actively firing on the AFU concentration areas, which had lost more than two hundred men killed during the offensive.
The bodies of the dead were impossible to remove due to the lack of transport vehicles and the active fire of the Russian army. The corpses were either simply left behind or taken to the South Donbass mine, where they were abandoned. Kraken nationalists arrived to prevent fleeing the positions.
▪️ In fact, an offensive by the Marines and OBTF alone became simply impossible. Another strike from #Nikolskoye in the direction of the #Maryinka - #Ugledar route and the South Donbass mine was needed to constrain AFU resources and cut off supplies.
▪️ It was at this stage that the entry of motorized infantry troops into the battle to strike the flank of the enemy with an armored fist was imminent and could no longer be delayed. However, an adequate military plan was never properly implemented.
🔹What happened?
Before any offensive, adequate preparation - reconnaissance, artillery and engineering - is necessary to achieve the objectives. UAV crews and forward scouts identify enemy positions, while artillerymen, together with aviation, fire on strongholds and fortifications.
At the same time, Signals Intelligence teams must ensure complete suppression of communications and drones, and engineer and sapper troops must clear the surrounding terrain - otherwise the offensive is doomed to failure.
The delayed engagement of motorized infantry units and the ensuing defeat of the convoy was only possible because of the general unpreparedness of the infantry forces engaged in the area.
The mine clearance of the approaches and the inadequate use of all available electronic warfare equipment led to the predictable result of a fairly narrow opening in the minefield, through which the column of armored vehicles rushed.
The entire route was tracked by UAVs and shot through by artillery and anti-tank crews.
🔹Who is to blame?
We can lay the blame on the command of the group as much as we like but in this particular case the cause of the tragic events was the general unpreparedness of the commanders of battalion and tactical levels, the lack of teamwork of the units involved and the failure to fulfil the combat mission.
The motorized rifle units should have engaged in combat almost simultaneously with the marines, but this did not happen. The unit commanders, probably fearing punishment, reported that their subordinates were fully prepared for the assault, which was far from reality.
Because of absence of elementary cover of radio-electronic and air defence systems and also objective difficulty of full clearance of all approaches to #Ugledar and the dachas (well and insufficient efforts, we shall be honest), there was simply no other variant of movement. The entire convoy was in plain view from the AFU positions at the #Ugledar heights.
However, all the equipment was not destroyed, as the Ukrainian media claimed. Some of it was only damaged and some was left intact. Under favourable conditions it can be pulled out and repaired. Judging by the open hatches, most of the personnel were successfully evacuated, but there were fallen and, alas, they will not be returned.
📌 Fear of the chain of command, the unwillingness to use the experiences of the first SMO year and the usual bureaucracy are the main reasons for the incident. A systemic change is needed in the approach to combat operations - both at the operational-tactical and simply tactical levels. Otherwise Belogorovka and #Ugledar will be repeated from time to time.
https://t.me/sitreports/4411
Posted by: Down South | Feb 11 2023 18:25 utc | 16
@grunzt, §35-354:
Yes indeed. "It is dangerous to be an enemy of the US - but to be a friend of the US is fatal."
Even more must it be the case if you are occupied by the USA, for the governments of Germany and Japan are, essentially, governments-of-occupation. It might as well still be 1945 for all the freedom they have.
If they haven´t learnt from the experience of the Ukraine - occupied by America since 2014 - they haven´t got their eyes open.
So it looks as though America is going to use Germany as their proxy against Russia and Japan as their proxy against China.
Germans and Japanese need to wake up quickly if they don´t want to end up like the Ukraine.
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 18:26 utc | 17
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
could the RF also supply and sustain high-intensity warfare with its much larger, mobilized, ~600,000 man army for any length of time? I don't think we've seen proof of this
I certainly don’t see any proof that Russia can’t sustain it’s intensity level; also remember that 600,000 mobilised personnel is not the same as 600,000 front line troops. There will be maintenance techs, medics, quartermasters, caterers, fuellers and all manner of other supporting cast involved in the 600,000.
The current scale of operations isn't going to lead to a decision/conclusion anytime soon: even with many troops pinned down in Bakhmut, Kiev was still able to rush reinforcements to Ugledar, so they seem to have both manpower and transport resources--at least for now. Same deal in Zaporozhie: one of the resident trolls was gloating here a couple weeks ago about Russia getting stalled on the "southern front". Troll or not, seems in retrospect he was mostly right?
In your view, why do they need to rush things? Where’s the hurry?
Russia wants forever to get taken seriously by the West
I’m not sure how true that is nowadays. KarlofI, among others, is indefatigable in providing translations of statements and speeches from figures in the Russian leadership. When I read these I detect a tone of exasperation, an unwillingness to tolerate any further the ignorance, arrogance and sheer rudeness shown by much of Western so-called ‘leadership’ towards the Russian nation. It seems to me that Russia wants the concept of a multipolar world to be taken seriously and there are increasing signs, to my eyes at least, that the West will not be getting any choice in this.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 11 2023 18:27 utc | 18
🇩🇪🤝🇷🇺 Shocking poll in Germany: what Germans would do if "Russia attacks the FRG". One in three would go nowhere, and one in four would leave the country immediately.▪️5% say they will take up arms voluntarily;
▪️6% expect to be drafted for national defense;
▪️33 % will try to continue their normal lives as best they can;
▪️24 % will leave the country as soon as possible in case of war.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/33005
Posted by: Down South | Feb 11 2023 18:28 utc | 19
My comment under an article about Hersh on consortium news:
Jörgen Hassler
February 11, 2023 at 04:43
I’m sorry but I’m not impressed by Hershs piece.
First of all, as Murray points out, most of it consists of known facts.
As for the new part, a source with insight into the working of utter most high level political figures in Washington talks to a reporter about top secret acts in a still ongoing war. Since there would be very few people that have this information, and since the leak would render him or her life in prison if found out you would have to ask: why?
Then there is the planning in it self. It reads like a thriller. Which it probably is, it’s simply too smooth to be real.
And then there is the modus operandi:
“ The pipelines ran more than a mile apart along a seafloor that was only 260 feet deep. That would be well within the range of the divers, who, operating from a Norwegian Alta class mine hunter, would dive with a mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and helium streaming from their tanks, and plant shaped C4 charges on the four pipelines with concrete protective covers. ”
First: the pipes don’t run ON the sea floor, they run below it to be protected from external forces. Second: they are 4-5 centimetres of steel covered by about a decimetre of steel reinforced concrete. The idea that diver alone first cleared the pipes, then placed the huge amount of c4 needed is imaginative, but a bit far fetched: most operators would have used machines for the job.
My take on this is that while Hersh is probably sincere, chances are high that he is being used as a pawn in a game of blame shifting.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 18:36 utc | 20
This is a longer piece, with deep political and military analysis.
Prospects for World War 3 – Dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker
I found it posted in sections on Slavyangrad Telegram.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2023 18:44 utc | 21
“ Russia wants forever to get taken seriously by the West” #6
I don’t think at this moment of time Russia gives any thought about what West thinks. Obviously they have their plan and they stick to it. Many people have pointed out that current situation at front suites their objectives of demilitarising Ukraine. They are destroying their manpower and equipment and this seems to be what currently matters.
Once they decide to unleash the accumulated forces they will be fully ready and fully supplied. That moment might be timed to meet some other objectives, potentially outside battle theatre in Ukraine.
Posted by: Milos | Feb 11 2023 18:45 utc | 22
@Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 18:36 utc | 21
I think the scenario the host provided is more plausible. The main impact of the Hersh article is the headline - an open accusation that the US planned and carried out the sabotage with some assistance from 'friends'. Those in Europe who were in on the scheme may fear that more details will now come out as some participants attempt to deny culpability or cover their asses - so there may result some commotion under the bed covers. We will see.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 11 2023 18:47 utc | 23
@21
But the pipelines WERE destroyed. Whatever the means. Whatever their protection by steel and concrete. And we do know who gloated over their destruction and who benefited from this. So your interpretation is not impressive to me. It's clear where the blame rests, so don't sidetrack this!
Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 18:50 utc | 24
False Peace 2014 - 2022 Thru Minsk Agreement
Russia Says It Has No Honest Negotiating Partner - Surrounded By NATO.
Remarks by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and ex-French President Francois Hollande that the Minsk
Agreements served to win time for Kiev to prepare for 'War' are "Documented Betrayal". 31 DEC 2022
Hersh describes the destruction of the North Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea by U.S. government forces.
"That Many Nations Would Disappear From the Face of the Earth - That Russia Would Be the Instrument
of Chastisement From Heaven For the Whole World." Sister Lucia of Fatima 1957
Posted by: JohnF | Feb 11 2023 18:53 utc | 25
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 11 2023 18:18 utc | 14
I must admit I did the same.
Posted by: Milos | Feb 11 2023 18:53 utc | 26
reply to 10
I am forced to ask what difference oppressions in Ukraine make. Of course, we can ask the same thing about riots in France, economic collapse in Britain, dementia in the White House and so on. What will change? What matters about public opinion? Ukraine's case is worse since their passivity means death.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 11 2023 19:13 utc | 27
OK Bigger Picture - consequences of this 1st "war" on future Geoecomomics, Geopolitics, Multipolarity due to the ....
2nd WAR - economics and sanctions etc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGBAKRzoJ1o
Attempt by US to economically seriously damage Russia, hence weakening the China-Russian joint potential. China - yes China. Europe has been neatly de=coupled and chained and chained to Uncle Sam's
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 19:13 utc | 28
As long as, say, RF hasn't even been able to stop the shelling of Donetsk, this "Russia is losing" meme is just plausible enough to keep the show going.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
##################
Sometimes people get confused and think that narrative builds an Empire. Nope. Narrative is a consequence of Empire.
The causality matters.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2023 19:17 utc | 29
@LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2023 18:44 utc | 22
Thanks for that link. Can't find much to disagree with.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 11 2023 19:26 utc | 30
Does anyone know what "happened" to the clarification of the 2015 find?
https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/explosive-laden-drone-found-near-nord-stream-pipeline
Posted by: 600w | Feb 11 2023 19:33 utc | 31
Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
First we heard that they'd need 3mths re-training after getting mobilized in September;
then they were waiting for winter;
and now, waiting for ...?
You/ we heard NONE of those claims from Russian MoD. Or Lavrov or Putin or anyone with any actual clue about what the Russians were planning and intending.
All claims are made by western pundits.
Some with books to sell or yt to monetize.
Some who just like to hear themselves speak.
Anyone worth listening to, like Brian Berletic, made no such claim.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 11 2023 19:48 utc | 32
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/33031
Maxim Zhorin, a former commander of the Azov regiment, described the situation in and around Bakhmut as very difficult.
ㅤ
Most of the Orchestra forces are advancing through the private sector and around the industrial zone."Very heavy fighting is going on for every house, every meter."
According to Zhorin, Ukraine is losing its most combat-ready soldiers in Bakhmut daily, so there will be no one to run Western aircraft and tanks after the deliveries.
"Tanks, aircraft we will be able to find. And the kind of people who are dying now at the front while we wait for supplies, we won't be able to find."
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 11 2023 19:51 utc | 33
In WW2, the Soviet Union added the Baltics which regained their independence also in 1989.
"The Ukraine" never appeared until 1917 when the victorious Germans (well Prussians, not Austrians) knocked Russia out of WW1.[...]
Barflies, any comment on these musings?
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 17:56 utc | 8
A bit of a correction needed here.
Latia and Estonia also never existed as independent entities prior to 1917. They were independent between 1918 and 1940 and then since 1989.
Lithuania is the sole exception, being a proper country in the Middle Ages, and the other half of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
But the other three (if you add Finland, which used to be grouped in the "Baltics" once upon a time) are modern constructs.
The idea of "Estonia" emerged in the 19th century. And it is fairly artificial -- it is really just Finnish speaking people who live on the southern side of the Gulf of Finland as opposed to on the northern side. Then the language started differentiating further, once an ethnic consciousness emerged. But at least it is somewhat homogeneous (aside from the large Russian population within the current territory).
Finnish speaking people also populated Ingria and Karelia, the regions south, east and north of St. Petersburg, and there are still some of them there, but they will be assimilated in the not too distant future.
Latvia was amalgamated somewhere in the early modern period from Curonians, Semigallians, Selonians and Latgalians, who were Baltic (i.e. Indo-European tribes) and the Livonians to the north, who were Finno-Ugric (i.e. not Indo-European), with not real tradition of proper statehood. And real nationalism is again, as is usually the case, a 19th-century phenomenon.
Finland also has a very short history of an independent nation, and probably wouldn't even exist today if it wasn't for Russia taking it away from Sweden -- the Swedes would have assimilated them by now. Same for Estonia, BTW, as in that alternative timeline Russia perhaps does not take Estonia either. Finland became independent in 1918, but it was already given a lot of autonomy for a century prior to that.
The only reason these countries are independent rather than having the same status as e.g. the Udmurts, the Mari, and all the other Finno-Ugric people who are buried deep in the Russian heartland is that they were on the periphery, which made it possible for Western powers to tear them off the Russian core. Quite literally -- without the Western intervention in the Russian Civil War the Bolsheviks likely manage to recover both the Baltics and Finland, and quite possibly don't have to set the whole SSR (with a right to secession) time bomb as a concession to nationalism.
Finally, we have the *-stans in Central Asia. Those are all completely artificial constructs of the USSR. It was just a bunch of tribes with very little in terms of statehood tradition. Yes, the region around Bukhara and Samarkand had a rich history of great states and empires being centered around it going back thousands of years, but in the 19th century, when the Tsars conquered Central Asia, it was all tribal. Then the Bolsheviks actually sat down and tried to sort it out somehow into "nations". It's not even clear how much demand there was for that really -- the current borders and ethnic delineations date to 1936, not to the period immediately after the Civil War as is the case with the concessions made to Ukrainian nationalism and to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Side note: Georgia and Armenia are proper countries with very ancient history that got conquered by the Tsars (likely for their own good -- they would have been genocided out of existence by the Turks had that not been the case). Azerbaijan on the other hand is another artificial historical accident -- it is basically just Shia Turks, and most of them live in Iran, not in the country Azerbaijan...
But Kazakhstan is probably the most absurd of those creations and the biggest own goal of them all, as it now occupies a gigantic amount of strategically very important territory, and it is quite likely we will see a war over it in the future too.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 19:52 utc | 34
@OohCanada | Feb 11 2023 18:05 utc | 11
A valid point. Kiev never tires of broadcasting its plans, whether they are grounded in reality or not. In contrast, "what happens in the Kremlin stays in the Kremlin" is a Russian stereotype that is actually valid for a change. So maybe those uncommitted troops are indeed a feint/reserve/defensive; we'll see I guess. I still have the question whether Russia could back up a much bigger "winter offensive" logistically at this time even if it wanted. Seems to be a separate issue from being able to mobilize and train the men.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 19:55 utc | 35
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 11 2023 18:47 utc | 24
The most important thing about the article is that it shifts the blame away from Britain and argues that the act was legal according to US law. That’s the actual main message.
The rest is mostly old news and cool scenery.
And Norway eager to attack denmark and Sweden to make more money from gas exports. Really? Have you ever been to Norway? Met the norweigans?
I used to be an investigative journalist, so I recognise poor craftsmanship when I see it. I’m sorry but the story is very weak, regardless of what the ramifications of the headline might be.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 19:55 utc | 36
Historical atlases show that in the Middle Ages there was ´Red Russia´, ´Black Russia´ and ´White Russia´, which may have been the origin of the Russian emperor´s title as "Tsar of all the Russias".
It seems that White Russia was what is now Belarus, Black Russia was what is now the Ukraine and Red Russia was Muscovy which expanded north to the Arctic and east to the Urals during the Middle Ages.
Red Russia then expanded to become Great Russia, acquiring an empire stretching from Petersburg to Alaska.
In the 19th century colonial period, the Russians occupied the Turkestans and the Caucasians, which declared independence in 1989. In WW2, the Soviet Union added the Baltics which regained their independence also in 1989.
"The Ukraine" never appeared until 1917 when the victorious Germans (well Prussians, not Austrians) knocked Russia out of WW1. The Ukraine was cut out of Russia at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk but reversed when WW1 was over and reverted to Russia which transformed into the Soviet Union.
So it doesn´t surprise me that Putin doesn´t want to restore the Soviet Union but he wants to defend Russia - and that appears, from history and population, to include Black Russia, aka "The Ukraine".
Barflies, any comment on these musings?
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 17:56 utc
Belarus and White Russia: How the two are related
Posted by: Moscow Exile | Feb 11 2023 20:02 utc | 37
Today's Global Times editorial contains some interesting observations about what's called "democracy" by the Outlaw US Empire, "Aggressiveness of US democracy derived from hegemony, bullying and domineering: Global Times editorial":
In "US democracy," there is a stable structure that consists of hegemony, bullying and domineering. Hegemony is the core goal, bullying is the way of action, and domineering is the behavioral characteristic. The three may change in their external manifestations according to the increase and decline of the US' own strength, but their essence will not change, and it is engraved in "US democracy." To international observers, this is obvious.The three words are prominently reflected in the US' control and monopoly of the right to interpret the connotation of modern democracy. It does not allow a second interpretation. It wants to pull out all the "flowers" that grow naturally in the garden of human political civilization and leave only the single seed of "US democracy." However, this goes against the general trend of multi-polarization and diversification. The US can only think about it, but not actually do it, making it look distorted and deformed, sometimes hypocritical and sometimes hideous.
I'll leave the rest for barflies to explore. IMO, the conclusion is excellent but well beyond Biden's ability to understand, same with most within Washington DC.
Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 18:50 utc | 25
I don’t know what your point is. My point was that it is very unlikely that the attack was carried out by divers alone, because it’s simply too much work. And you probably need a shaped charge to punch through all that steel and concrete.
Which means Hersh is off on the modus. And that he — with your eager assistance— is the one that is side tracking.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 20:06 utc | 39
back to detail ..
Wagner Captures Krasna Hora | Quick Front Update 11/02/23
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5Wrdn-Un-E
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 20:08 utc | 40
@Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 19:55 utc | 37
Thanks.
Maria Zakharova has a different point of view
"We Are Not Surprised By Hersh's Conclusions"
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 11 2023 20:10 utc | 41
As I replied to John Marks query on the previous thread, Russia is busy liberating former Russian Empire lands that were never really Ukrainian as the genuine history proves. Galicia will be cast adrift while Kiev will likely become a city-state and while repudiating all debt incurred by Ukraine since 1991. And the term Ukraine will again sink into the mists of time only to be recollected in history books. Time will prove or disprove the accuracy of my prediction.
@Down South | Feb 11 2023 18:03 utc | 10
Do you or someone else have some background on this "legitimniy" channel? All the time I see stories "Our source in the Office of the President says ..." and then some really sensitive stuff. Is it even plausible that someone with high-level access in Kiev uses it just for airing the junta's dirty laundry in public, without ever getting caught in a mole hunt? Not quite Qanon-level kookiness but close. And yet I see the channel getting quoted all over the place. Is there a good reason to think that legitimniy has insider sources, or could the whole thing be a psyop?
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 20:12 utc | 43
Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
us and nato would be supplying a quagmire in ukranistan a far distance over railroads and roads from the limited output they could deliver........
usanatostan would redo afghanistan where the other guy can shoot down their 'assets'.
Posted by: paddy | Feb 11 2023 20:16 utc | 44
John Marks | Feb 11 2023 18:26 utc | 18
America is going to use Germany as their proxy against Russia and Japan as their proxy against China. Germans and Japanese need to wake up quickly if they don´t want to end up like the Ukraine.
Yes indeed. The best opportunity for the Germans to wake up, is to learn the truth about whodunnit - who cut their gas pipelines. They do not know it yet - but once that piece of information has reached, say, 60% of the brains, they will start thinking - and find out, not only is the US lying to them, but so is their own government. Time for Baerbock, Habeck and Scholz to run for cover.
Time for us to think about forwarding the message. The MSM, like the Bundestag, is doing everything to prevent it. nachdenkseiten.de is the largest online magazine and does a fantastic job - but they cover only a few hundred thousands of readers - not much in a country of 83,000,000.
Posted by: grunzt | Feb 11 2023 20:18 utc | 45
@John Marks | Feb 11 2023 17:56 utc | 8
Kyiv was the mother of Moscow, a thousand years ago. Then the two got dominated by different groups of foreigners.
Russia got the small, landlocked "Ukraine" (borderland) from Poland/Lithuania in the 17th Century.
In the 18th Century, Russia conquered what became Novorossiya, basically the area that Putin overran last February. The Soviets around 1921 stapled Novorossiya together with little Ukraine, and then Stalin added Galicia to Ukraine, and then Kruschev added Crimea.
Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 11 2023 20:20 utc | 46
Feb 11 2023 19:55 utc | 37
not buying your 'appeal to authority'.
i disagree with some of hersch's suggestions, as related from unnamed sources, but the general conclusion is enough to demand undersea sensor data from the region during the 6 weeks before the event.
the existence of the sensors is classifed soooo....
Posted by: paddy | Feb 11 2023 20:20 utc | 47
John Schmeeckle | Feb 11 2023 20:20 utc | 47
And together, all the pieces become a Frankenstein’s monster.
Dismemberment is now necessary.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 11 2023 20:23 utc | 48
How is this even possible a year into the war:
▪️Enemy army aviation is working on Russian assault groups: Ukrainian Mi-8s and Mi-24s are involved from the airfield in Mirny , west of Donetsk. Aviation was diverted from Ugledar and Marinka to Bakhmut .At the same time, in the Kramatorsk region , for several days now, the Bayraktar TB2 UAV delivered from Turkey has been conducting reconnaissance of the west of the DPR, which carries out target designation for Ukrainian artillery.
Ukraine is flying planes and helicopters from airfields within DNR territory?
Seriously, WTF?
Frist, how are those locations not blown to bits?
Second, what is the much vaunted long-range air defense doing?
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:24 utc | 49
karlof1 @ 39
Who knew the Chinese were so cool:
It wants to pull out all the "flowers" that grow naturally in the garden of human political civilization and leave only the single seed of "US democracy."
Sheriff John Brown always hated me,
for what, I don't know.
Every time I plant a seed,
he said kill it before it grow.
He said kill them before they grow, and so-and-so.
Read it in the news!
I Shot The Sheriff - Bob Marley and the Wailers
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 11 2023 20:25 utc | 50
@JohnF | Feb 11 2023 18:53 utc | 26
... Sister Lucia of Fatima 1957...
The bunk promulgated about this would fill the Library of Congress but it would necessarily remain bunk. There is no possible justification for this product of stupidity and ignorance allied with gullibility and superstition.
Posted by: Hermit | Feb 11 2023 20:28 utc | 51
Kyiv was the mother of Moscow, a thousand years ago. Then the two got dominated by different groups of foreigners.
Russia got the small, landlocked "Ukraine" (borderland) from Poland/Lithuania in the 17th Century.
In the 18th Century, Russia conquered what became Novorossiya, basically the area that Putin overran last February. The Soviets around 1921 stapled Novorossiya together with little Ukraine, and then Stalin added Galicia to Ukraine, and then Kruschev added Crimea.Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 11 2023 20:20 utc | 47
Two additional important details -- Volhynia (Lutsk + Rovno) was recovered during the Second and Third partitions of Poland in 1793 and 1795.
And Stalin also added Transcarpathia, which was a different step from adding Galicia -- Galicia was added during the 1939 partition of Poland, Transcarpathia after the war ended.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:31 utc | 52
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 20:12 utc | 44
I don’t have any background info on them. I came across them after several pro Russian channels would quote them calling them a pro Ukrainian insider channel.
I consider their sources legitimate as their insider info generally is spot on. I regularly post updates from them here. They often have the inside track on a great many things happening in Kiev. Take the recent purges. They posted about the purges before they happened, who was behind the purges, who stood to benefit etc.
I scan that channel every day. They have 880,000 subscribers so it’s no Mickey Mouse outfit.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 11 2023 20:37 utc | 53
@Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 17:45 utc | 6
Russia is fully prepared for a regional war with NATO, and since 2018 NO credible study has reflected that NATO could beat Russia in a non-nuclear regional war. Even though the Ukraine is controlled, financed, supplied, trained and supported by NATO it remains far weaker than NATO. Which is why it is literally incredible that Ukraine could avoid being forced to surrender to Russia unless they negotiate a ceasefire before that happens.
Posted by: Hermit | Feb 11 2023 20:38 utc | 54
" Yes indeed. The best opportunity for the Germans to wake up, is to learn the truth about whodunnit - who cut their gas pipelines.
Posted by: grunzt | Feb 11 2023 20:18 utc | 46 "
Actually the best way for the Germans to wake up is to learn the truth about the Holohoax.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Feb 11 2023 20:38 utc | 55
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 11 2023 20:10 utc | 42
“Norway obeys the United States and the European Union in its foreign policy.“ That’s true. And it’s possible that a norwegian minesweeper played some role, if so probably recognisence.
But a boat with a crew of about 30 isn’t suited for such an extensive terrorist attack. It’s too small to carry the equipment needed.
And being an obedient servant is a long way from actively attacking your neighbours for fun and profit. You haven’t attacked us since 1788. I don’t think you are about to start now.
That part seems like a figment of a typical US imagination, because it’s something that they would definitely do.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 20:45 utc | 56
There are images available on the internet that show the site of the explosion as well as other photographs showing the pipe in clear view on the sea bed.
Description of the construction on various sites explain the pipe rests directly on the sea bed for most of its length with limited sections buried in a shallow trench.
So yes, divers alone could attach explosives.
Posted by: mi | Feb 11 2023 20:49 utc | 57
@40
you really don't want to get it.
The means by which these pipelines were destroyed don't matter (and unless you are very deep in matters of undersea destruction you won't be able to decide on what is possible or not, but this risks becoming another 9/11 discussion so let us leave that for now...). The whole point is they actually were destroyed and the USA was behind it. And if someone in Norway benefited, why, they wouldn't care about their neighbours. Or do you really think Norwegians are morally superior?
Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 20:49 utc | 58
@Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 20:45 utc | 57
I appreciate your comments. For sure I see no need to attack any neighbors, that would be lunacy. I just want to get to the truth of what happened and hear all parties.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 11 2023 20:57 utc | 59
Russia is fully prepared for a regional war with NATO, and since 2018 NO credible study has reflected that NATO could beat Russia in a non-nuclear regional war. Even though the Ukraine is controlled, financed, supplied, trained and supported by NATO it remains far weaker than NATO. Which is why it is literally incredible that Ukraine could avoid being forced to surrender to Russia unless they negotiate a ceasefire before that happens.Posted by: Hermit | Feb 11 2023 20:38 utc | 55
It should also always be pointed out that the current war is being fought under much more unfavorable rules of engagement than an open conventional war with NATO would be.
Right now NATO is using Ukraine to do the shooting while it provides the targeting and the weapons.
And Russia is not allowed to take out NATO's ISR and rear.
Also, the current war is a hostage operation, which greatly limits the power of the weapons used. E.g. Ugledar would be simply wiped off the map altogether under different circumstances -- it really isn't needed on its own, it just needs to be removed as an obstacle -- but there are still 1,500 Russian civilians there so you can't do that, and it has been the same story in one village and town after another.
There is also the murky issue of various Russian business interests involving Ukraine vetoing striking certain targets.
All this creates a major asymmetry that would not exist in an open confrontation with NATO and beyond Ukraine (with the exception of Estonia and Latvia where there is also a large Russian population).
That is why all those studies point to Russia winning against NATO while the current war is such a slog.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:58 utc | 60
Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 20:49 utc | 59
Moraly superior to Americans? That’s not very hard to be.
Fun fact: most nations don’t kill their neighbours to make a buck.
And in judging the quality of the the article the description of the modus matters a great deal, because it was one of the main points.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 21:05 utc | 61
I see the NS sabotage debate of Norway (or not) UK (or not) Poland (or not) Estonia (or not) continues.
What 90% here agree is that the US was the driver of this enterprise. No one is 100% sure of the other participants, if any.
It is in the USA's interests to keep the covert team involved as small as possible to avoid potential detection and leaks as small as possible. The closer a participant is to Russia, the more likely that their team and communications have been compromised by spies.
There was no technical or logistical reason that the USA could not have done this alone. Why make it more complicated and risky than it needed to be?
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 11 2023 21:06 utc | 62
The reports in the German media always fascinate me anew. With only ten missiles, the Russians manage to inflict considerable damage:
"According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russian army used 71 cruise missiles in the attacks since Friday morning. 61 of them had been intercepted. The cruise missiles were fired from Russian ships in the Black Sea and from aircraft, he added.
The latest wave of Russian missile attacks is again forcing emergency repairs to Ukraine's power grid. Several thermal and hydroelectric power plants have been damaged, the head of the Ukrenerho power company, Volodymyr Kudryzkyj, said on Ukrainian television Friday evening.
He said the power supply in the Kharkiv region was particularly bad. Due to instability in Ukraine's power grid, a reactor unit had to be shut down at the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant, and production was curtailed at the Rivne and South Ukraine nuclear power plants.
"The scale of the damage is considerable: the Russians have managed to damage several thermal and hydroelectric power plants."
As a result, plans to normalize power supply have been set back, he said. "But once again, no disaster has occurred." The reportedly fourteenth wave of Russian attacks since last October also failed to achieve its goal of destroying Ukraine's power system, he said.
Work was underway in the major city of Kharkiv to restore power over the weekend, he said. "The critical infrastructure of Kharkiv was supplied with electricity," the Ukrenerho chief stressed. Work is also underway to stabilize the situation in the Khmelnytskyi region and Odessa, he added. In the capital Kiev, according to Ukrenerho, "currently there is always electricity for six hours, then for three hours there is no electricity."
So everything is fine. Who believes this nonsense?
Posted by: BonfireNight | Feb 11 2023 21:13 utc | 63
I fully recognize where the war in Ukraine is heading. It is heading towards devastating war within the USA and most NATO nations.
When I was a young lad, many of the older generations would have quickly agreed with me. Actually, they would have been telling me that is where the current escalation was heading. I was born 7 years after WWII ended.
Many of the older generation experienced the horrors of WWII. Now 77 years have passed since WWII ended. And that generation is now pretty much gone. And their word of reason and caution has pretty much been thrown to the wayside.
Most in the West have not experienced the horrors of war. Only a few (relative to their populations) alive today have fought in any real war or even in a battle.
Yet, today those who never experienced war or even where in a military for a few years are running the policial show. They go about with inpunity thinking that they command the new direction for their countries and their people. They walk about with disgusting pride. Yet, they have no moral fiber or fear of God or any real concern for their peoples.
They will soon see themselves in the war trap. Hopefully, some of them will wake up and repent of their evil ways before it is too late for their future eternity.
The words of Jesus are pretty much rejected today when he said "blessed are the peacemakers". Those who have not experienced war have no idea how important those words are for them and for a world that about to plunge into very dark war times.
Jesus will return. Then there will be peace, but not until then.
Posted by: young | Feb 11 2023 21:15 utc | 64
Posted by: mi | Feb 11 2023 20:49 utc | 58
Even if the section wasn’t buried you still need a lot of c4 and a James Bond style remote trigger to carry out the attack. And the signal from the bouy, it travels to four different locations that are fairly far apart un changed and un interrupted?
Sorry, it just doesn’t add up. Especially not since it would be so much easier using drones or mines placed by a robot.
And before you say that they would be traceable: yes, and so is c4. If the us/Norway alliance used c4 they didn’t even try to hide whodunnit.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 21:15 utc | 65
@63
As to the Americans, or at least their politicians and 3-letter agencies, I wholeheartedly agree. But using that argument, Mobutu was a honest fellow and Goebbels very trustworthy.
Anyway, I don't care about the means and you can't deny the impact of the article because of technical details.
Consider the alternatives:
Spontaneous combustion as in a Charles Dickens novel? Well, those pipelines were utterly evil, were they not?
Or miniature submarines with suicidal Russian gnomes travelling through them?
Iranian drones?
Now really...
Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 21:18 utc | 66
@shadowbanned, §35:
Thanks for your reply, shadowbanned.
I was aware of the history you recount.
I would add for completeness (your reply was very comprehensive) that Kaliningrad oblast was also inhabited by Latvian-type Baltics known as Prussians (the original Prussians!) before they were conquered and assimilated by the Germans - who lost it after WW2 to the Russians. It remains a peripheral exclave in the EU, which may be expanded to include the whole of the old German Ostpreußen in exchange for Poland taking Galicia (which no-one wants).
I agree with you about Turkestan, particularly the excessive northward extension of Kazakhstan but as long as the Kazakhs play ball with Russia, that will stand.
Caucasia is more interesting and Russia may think nominal nation statelets (under Russian aegis like the Abkhaz) preferable in future to religiously defined entities like Dagestan which is essentially the Avars, Didos, Laks, Dargins and Lezgians together with Turkish, Armenian, Greek, Persian and Syrian minorities. Chechenya would be the model for these. Such statelets would have to look to Russia as arbiter of any disputes, guarantors against such as Turkey or Persia (or Georgia!) and as a way of splintering any Islamic appeal.
Azerbaijan is playing a dangerous game flirting between Turkey and Persia, with Armenian claims in the west and a solid block of Lezgian territory in the north. I foresee Azerbaijan being partitioned between Armenia, Russian Lezgia and Turkey in the future as Islamic influence wanes due to Shia-Sunni tensions, like Catholic-Protestant ones in Ireland. That may spill over into Persian Azerbaijan depending on whether Shia religion or Turkish nationality is more important for the inhabitants.
But my main interest is in what you and the barflies think will be the future of what is currently called "the Ukraine". I would think the Russians would want to expunge the idea of "the Ukraine" (´borderland´) and rename what´s left Black Russia or Chornarus (cf. White Russia -> Belarus). I would see Chornarus comprising the eight oblasts of Kiev, Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Elizavetgrad (Kirovograd), Poltava and Chernigov at most. The rest of the erstwhile Ukraine would be Russian oblasts, viz. Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Crimea, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Lugansk, Xarkov and Sumy.
What do you and the bar think?
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 21:20 utc | 67
" There is also the murky issue of various Russian business interests involving Ukraine vetoing striking certain targets.
That is why all those studies point to Russia winning against NATO while the current war is such a slog.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:58 utc | 61 "
During a REAL war any internal, active, domestic, subterfuge designed to undermine the war effort would promptly be neutralized. However, since this is just a SMO, per Putin, the Oligarchs have a full Democratic right to look out for their own needs to the detriment of the Russian nation.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Feb 11 2023 21:23 utc | 69
Jesus will return. Then there will be peace, but not until then.
Posted by: young | Feb 11 2023 21:15 utc | 66
Amen, brother! I am under no delusion that any of us can change what has already been written, but as for my me and my family, we have accepted the blood of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, and so we fear no earthly evil. We are ready to be called home when the time comes. I know many Americans are ready, but plenty will never know His love. Go Chiefs!
Posted by: LGB! | Feb 11 2023 21:23 utc | 70
Posted by: mi | Feb 11 2023 20:49 utc | 58
And btw: even if the pipe was resting on the ocean floor you have place the explosives under it to get a meaningful force (granted you use c4). So you still need to dig.
I don’t know how much diving you have done, I’ve only done a little. But enough to make the educated guess that digging by hand is not your first option.
But hell, if bar flies want to sanctify Hersh, who am I to stop you. Over and out.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 11 2023 21:28 utc | 71
Don Firineach | Feb 11 2023 19:13 utc | 29
Thank for the link. Didn't know this prof Richard Wolff until now, i'll dig in..his summary is concise and clear.( also appreciate the yellow vest in the back..)
B shared a link few days ago in his weekly brief to an Emmanuel Todd's conference, but it was in french. Todd made a most récent interview , and someone had the good idea to sub translate it in english :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAUD1gxEWxE
good food for brain
Posted by: malamatias | Feb 11 2023 21:30 utc | 72
Isn't the point that whoever blew up the pipelines, the US on its own or with accomplices, nations like Germany knew about it and accepted it?
Moreover, what kind of hypocrisy is official denial when you otherwise gloat over the crime as Mrs Nuland does? There really isn't that much effort to keep things secret. In fact, they do not even pretend anymore and isn't this extremely humiliating for Europeans? In how many mainstream Western papers is this even discussed?
Posted by: Anthony | Feb 11 2023 21:34 utc | 73
"since 2018 NO credible study has reflected that NATO could beat Russia in a non-nuclear regional war"
Do you have some links to these studies? Posted by: Bill Smith | Feb 11 2023 20:59 utc | 62
If there are no studies, links would be problematic.
Posted by: jr | Feb 11 2023 21:34 utc | 74
Down South
Can’t work out if that account of the battle is either hyperbolic, amateurish, or a reflection on the success of the Russian’s incremental approach with small footprint operations that such a setback is reported in such an ‘elevated’ matter. I must say I’m curious about the meagre forces committed to such an ambitious objective, pincer on a fortified BUA with elevation advantage, and remain somewhat unconvinced as to it’s real purpose. I do note that the UAF lost another five tubes and three ammo dumps yesterday, in the area, and the Dacha area is once again contested and there are reports of fighting to the NW of Ugledar.
I still remain convinced that all these open source accounts are being used by the Russian’s the way a confidence trickster plays the shell game, or an illusionist misdirects their audience. The West’s public response to the fighting all across the front lines is to claim the offensive has started and is failing to achieve it’s objectives, hence the focus on the Ugledar footage; however, when they do launch I suspect it’s start points, avenues of attack, objectives and MO will be somewhat unexpected.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 11 2023 21:39 utc | 75
Russia is sluggish when it comes to its reactions. I'm thinking of the eucalyptus-eating koalas.
They are very peaceful, but can use their sharp claws when irritated.
In contrast to the koalas, the Russians are rather shape-shifters, the sluggish koalas become rather Siberian tigers in case of a serious threat.
Germany had in the WK II really competent army leaders like Keitel, Manstein, Guderian, Rommel and others. - I think here in particular of Marshall Zhukov, who after his decisions in the war against Japan and later against Germany was played down by his own people (such as Stalin and Khrushchev).
Let's see how Surovikin, Prigoshin and others will fare...when the conflict ends.
Posted by: Oberbayer | Feb 11 2023 21:45 utc | 77
reply to 30
I speculate that the "Russia is losing" meme might be of great value to Russia. We debate whether NATO will intervene or nuclear war will erupt. However, this wishful thinking that underpins the official narrative may stay their hand. If this seems stupid or crazy (um....it is), I offer the example of the National Interest recently posting an essay from a primary author on how the new tanks etc. would bring defeat to Russia with all confidence. There was a follow up from an academic who expressed great puzzlement about this, so not everyone is being fooled.
I am also reminded of George III expressing shock that the Colonies won independence. Overconfidence by one's enemy can be quite handy.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 11 2023 21:51 utc | 78
The easiest way to blow that pipeline up would have been to fix homeing devices to the pipes, giving a signal out. Hence the divers.
And then just torpedo them from a distance.
Why would anyone do anything else.
Or torpedo dropped from plane or inocent looking ship.
Simple is best, I doubt the logistics of whats been put forward, the sheer weight of explosive needed would be prohibitive for divers.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 11 2023 21:53 utc | 79
@61 Russia needs to shoot the hostages, to get through to the ukrainians. If they're there willingly, then its not loss. If they won't leave its not because they dont know its a warzone. Seems to me to be consent to become collateral damage, pro russian or not. Theyres like a couple dozen buildings in Krasna Gora for instance. The whole area should be fine powder by now, but weeks and weeks taking pot shots at it. Weak. That is weakness on display.
Same for their troops, sacrificing them well, not in armored columns out in the open going down a road in a straight line, is also necessary. Russia's holding back the Wagner group, why? Because they are inexplicably stupid, or fighting against themselves, ie riddled with traitors. And the traitors are stupid too, because obviously no deal they think they're making will be upheld. Its ludicrous to think that Nalvany would be allowed to exercise any power even if he got into power. Lord only knows what deal he thinks he has, or the belarussian opposition dummys. They will get fucked like a used condom, dropped as necessary when the countries are annexed and dismembered. Greater Ukraine anyone? nope. even if they get it all back, whos going to fix the country? Do they really think the germans will rebuild it and give it to them? Ukrainian may be the dumbest of the lot.
Thermobaric the whole towns, mine all the airfields with those banned mines that Ukraine has polluted the whole country with. any number of things. The longer they hold to their holier than thou bullshit, the weaker they are.
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Feb 11 2023 21:59 utc | 80
The Biden administration is very happy to know the pipeline is “a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea,” Victoria Nuland said. Now if Russia had done the deed Nuland would of course be damning it. How terrible was Russia's attack on our ally Germany! a war crime!! Russia will pay a steep price!!! . . .IOW in this case the US spoke the truth, Bidden too, they are very happy, like Blinken's boy Ned Price, who actually laughed at (or with) a correspondent who suggested that the US did it.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 11 2023 22:03 utc | 81
I’ve now read a a half dozen German newspaper responces to Hersh. They are all exceedingly hostile, and bend over backwards to pour scorn and ridicule on him. None of the supposed factual errors they cite seem credible to me save for one: Hersh says Jens Stoltenberg has worked with US intelligence since the Vietnam War, which makes no sense, because he was still a minor when the war ended.
All also make a big deal of him supposedly having only one source. But I don’t see how they could know this. Hersh refers to “the source” for particular claims, but it is not at all clear that the entire story is based on a single source.
Still, it would be nice if he’d clarify this matter, and also correct his statement about Stoltenberg.
Posted by: GuardYourHumanity | Feb 11 2023 22:08 utc | 82
Neofeudalfuture @ 82
Russia has always kept the moral highground.
To do as you suggest would make them as bad as the west.
Never wrestle with a pig in mud, the pig enjoys it.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 11 2023 22:08 utc | 83
@West of England Andy | Feb 11 2023 18:27 utc | 19
>>In your view, why do they need to rush things?
>>Where’s the hurry?
I have no qualification to tell Russia what it needs to do. But I'm not at all sold on this "slower is better" mantra. For instance, "slower is better" failed to establish a sufficient buffer around Kherson, because "you can always take that land later". But the result was that the Antonovsky bridge and the Kakhovka dam remained in range of Ukie strikes; by the time the problem was acknowledged, Russia was short of troops and mud season was on the way, in the end leading to the loss of that whole bridgehead across the Dniepr. Similarly, Russia is now killing on the battlefield men who have been mobilized from say Kharkov and Sumy, who would have been civilians and alive under Russian rule if those places had been taken right at the start of the SMO. But no, "muh limited operation, we can always take those cities later". Well even if you can, it won't be the same now Russia killed scores of their children.
In addition, the fortifications which apparently are so tough and costly to crack in Donbass are now also getting built elsewhere, incl. in places which Russia withdrew from last March as a "goodwill gesture", as if the Kiev junta were ever going to respond to those.
-----------------------------------
@LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2023 19:17 utc | 30
>>Sometimes people get confused and think that narrative builds
>>an Empire. Nope. Narrative is a consequence of Empire.
Be that as it may, but as long as that narrative "Ukraine is winning (or at least it can win)" survives, it seems Ukrainians will be sending their children to the slaughter. So at least in this case, I think that narrative matters.
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@shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 20:58 utc | 61
>>There is also the murky issue of various Russian business interests involving Ukraine vetoing striking certain targets.
I've often wondered about this. Say what you want of the ukies but they pursue this thing no holds barred, with a "whatever it takes" mentality--even as that makes them commit repugnant acts. On the Russian side, besides the laws of war there seem to be also unwritten rules about stuff that just can't be touched because it belongs to someone who's somebody etc.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 11 2023 22:12 utc | 84
“Amen, brother! I am under no delusion...” [followed by an entire paragraph of purely insane delusions.]
Posted by: ... | Feb 11 2023 22:16 utc | 85
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 11 2023 21:06 utc | 64
they wanted to get the Germans and Swedes and Norwegians etc on board. that's the reason, pretend it was a mutual decision; they still claim NATO isn't the US and a bunch of poodles.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 11 2023 22:18 utc | 86
"It should also always be pointed out that the current war is being fought under much more unfavorable rules of engagement than an open conventional war with NATO would be."
Yes, and those unfavorable rules are unfavorable to NATO, thusly the Russian approach.
No NATO airforce, their most formidable asset. No first rate NATO weapons, all secondary stuff ready to be retired. No NATO troops, which are very well-trained. And not the whole mass of NATO assets at once which could overwhelm Russia's defenses and lead to immediate nuclear war...or get stuck on Russia defenses leading to nuclear war.
Russia gets to take on the proxies first. A well-trained, hard-fighting proxy army which would be very dangerous combined with the full-force of NATO. Western armies biggest weakness is their unwillingness to take losses.
Russia is more than happy to see NATO deployed in manageable pieces. I think it is also quite obvious China/Russia is letting inertia/entropy do it's work on the declining Anglo-Empire. Time is clearly on Russia's side.
In return, the main drawback is putting up with western surveillance assets, primarily the intel planes.
Posted by: Haassaan | Feb 11 2023 22:19 utc | 87
These attacks might be them breaking up large groupings so Ukraine can't steamroll them
Posted by: OohCanada | Feb 11 2023 18:05 utc | 11
--------------------------------------
I am sorry, WHO is doing the breaking up and WHO is doing the steam rolling?
Posted by: Ed | Feb 11 2023 22:24 utc | 88
# 74 thanks for the link. This type of conversation is invisible in western media. To the detriment of an overall understanding of event.
Posted by: Dingo | Feb 11 2023 22:27 utc | 89
Beware. Caution. Keep heads down.
Russia’s MFA spokeswoman is at it again with a Henckels in hand.
Russian diplomat warns Germany’s Baerbock against making irreparable mistake on Ukraine
[.]
MOSCOW, February 11. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has warned German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who admitted that her words about Europe being at war with Russia had been a mistake, against making irreparable mistakes concerning Ukraine, Zakharova wrote on her Telegram channel on Saturday.Earlier on Saturday, Baerbock admitted that she had made a mistake claiming in late January that the European Union "is fighting a war with Russia." "The one who doesn’t make mistakes, doesn’t live," Baerbock quoted this saying in an interview with Der Tagesspiegel newspaper, explaining her words.
According to Zakharova, it was a pivotal statement of Baerbock.
"Once you realize your mistake sincerely, you will understand this. You have to.
However, if you are hypocritical again, you are making an irreparable mistake this time," Zakharova wrote.The Russian diplomat called on the German foreign minister "if you believe that everyone has the right to make mistakes because it is part of human life, stop engaging in escalating the crisis that leads to killings of people with Western weapons."[.]
Earlier in the SMO Russia was critiqued for being too slow on the response trigger. Now not a beat is missed.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 11 2023 22:28 utc | 90
"Also, the current war is a hostage operation, which greatly limits the power of the weapons used. E.g. Ugledar would be simply wiped off the map altogether under different circumstances -- it really isn't needed on its own, it just needs to be removed as an obstacle -- but there are still 1,500 Russian civilians there so you can't do that, and it has been the same story in one village and town after another."
No, bombing cities to rubble doesn't do much military damage to your opponent. Armies know how to survive that. Most old Soviet Cities have extensive bomb-shelters and fortified areas, and it doesn't take much time to build on those. In many cases bombing cities to rubble creates even better defensive terrain.
Bombing cities to rubble is a terror weapon designed to sap the will of the population to fight and in some cases disrupt industry. Ukraine doesn't care about it's citizens in general and Eastern Ukrainian citizens in particular, so terror bombing won't work.
Not to mention Ukraine still has enough air-defenses to make fly-over bombing risky and expensive. Russia air force doesn't fly more than a couple dozen miles over Ukrainian held territory.
As to altruistic intents, Russia does operate by those, and that is a good thing. If Russia was just going to be the new NAZIS, 85% of the world wouldn't support them. Westerners tend to be extremely short-sighted and that shows with some of the analysis here. Combine that with the typical western chest-beating buffoonery, and it can get downright ridiculous.
Of course a lot of this Russia needs to go faster BS is pushed by those with ill-intent. It is a horrible strategy.
Posted by: Haassaan | Feb 11 2023 22:34 utc | 91
I don't know about "studies" but I'm pretty sure Hermit was referring to wargames in which NATO loses to Russia (and China) far more often than it wins.
https://sofrep.com/news/this-wargame-revealed-russias-supremacy-over-nato/
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/nato-could-lose-war-russia-wargame-shows-how-174305
Those are just the first two Google results for "NATO wargame Russia."
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2023 22:39 utc | 92
And it shouldn't be any surprise that NATO more often loses wargames vs. the RF. They (although in this case I think it may be the US and not NATO) also lose them to Iran.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/millennium-challenge-iran-destroyed-america-war-game-197261
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2023 22:41 utc | 93
Nemesis Calling: In case you're reading I haven't forgotten your question from the other day. If I can finally finish my book this evening and tomorrow morning, I'll provide my answer in the O/T (Week in Review) tomorrow (Sunday) evening.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2023 22:43 utc | 94
Modern conflicts tend to produce ‘new’ warfare doctrines and generational changes in the conduct of warfare.
It’s seems in this conflict non of the parties planned (maybe the US planned for it) for the obsolescence of aircraft at striking in depth and at mobile targets.
Without aircraft (apart from strafing front lines) there is no mechanism to hit beyond artillery and rockets. Of course there are ballistic missiles but they are too few and far between to hit what otherwise thousands of aircraft bombs would hit. Not to mention they are only effective against static installations.
In this setting it becomes a peer to peer conflict with supply and defence optimising battlefield outcomes.
Guided missiles and drones become the new kings of the battlefield being able to hit beyond artillery, which explains the West’s hyper reaction to Iranian drones. There is no other method to hit mobile logistics in depth.
Unfortunately this is an area in which Russia is behind the eight ball. Until Russia gets to parity (which will take years) there will be a terrible loss of life on both sides in a clash of flesh and steel at static front lines.
Until Russia can overwhelmingly disrupt logistics there will be a lot of dead young Slavs on both sides and the US will be rubbing its hands with glee.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | Feb 11 2023 22:44 utc | 95
I agree with you about Turkestan, particularly the excessive northward extension of Kazakhstan but as long as the Kazakhs play ball with Russia, that will stand.Posted by: John Marks | Feb 11 2023 21:20 utc | 69
Well, that's the thing -- the US tried to do a coup there a year ago, and I see random bits here and there of increasingly Russophobic Kazakh nationalism. So it may well come to an open confrontation sooner or later.
Kazakhstan is in way even more dangerous than Ukraine for Russia. Many of the key nuclear and military-industrial sites are right at or very close to the border, as they were put there in Soviet times, when those were the positions most distant from the Soviet borders and coasts, and thus the most secure locations.
Imagine what an US aligned Kazakhstan would mean in terms of security for Russia (and for China too).
So if the Kazakhs are stupid enough to allow their own Maidan to go down successfully, there will be a war. And I am far from 100% certain such a scenario is unlikely.
Azerbaijan is playing a dangerous game flirting between Turkey and Persia, with Armenian claims in the west and a solid block of Lezgian territory in the north. I foresee Azerbaijan being partitioned between Armenia, Russian Lezgia and Turkey in the future as Islamic influence wanes due to Shia-Sunni tensions, like Catholic-Protestant ones in Ireland. That may spill over into Persian Azerbaijan depending on whether Shia religion or Turkish nationality is more important for the inhabitants.
On the surface Azerbaijan seems to be doing well so far, and to be on an upward trajectory. But that's on the surface. We will see. Especially once the oil and gas run out, then there isn't much of an economy left there, and we have a problem...
But my main interest is in what you and the barflies think will be the future of what is currently called "the Ukraine". I would think the Russians would want to expunge the idea of "the Ukraine" (´borderland´) and rename what's left Black Russia or Chornarus (cf. White Russia -> Belarus). I would see Chornarus comprising the eight oblasts of Kiev, Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Elizavetgrad (Kirovograd), Poltava and Chernigov at most. The rest of the erstwhile Ukraine would be Russian oblasts, viz. Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Crimea, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Lugansk, Xarkov and Sumy.
What do you and the bar think?
De-Ukrainization is an absolute must. There will never be peace without that.
It will take generations, but it will have to be done.
And the very idea of "Ukraine" must become as toxic as "Nazi Germany". It is quite the same thing at this point anyway, so this is not an unreasonable objective at all.
But what do you do with Lutsk, Rovno, and especially the Lvov/Ternopol/Ivano-Frankovsk triangle, which is where the poison flows from? That will be hard to do without outright ethnic cleansing...
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 22:45 utc | 96
John Marks @69--
I've replied twice, my most recent @43 above.
West of England Andy @19--
The Multipolar World Project was begun long ago, foundered, and was resurrected by both Xi Jinping and Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev in 2013. A number of organizations outside the Outlaw US Empire's orbit were founded beginning in 1956 and has continued ever since. ASEAN in 1967; APEC in 1989; BRIC in 2001, the S added in 2010; EAEU was formed in 2014; and the BRI in 2013. These are the main organizations, but there are others like the African Union founded 2002; Arab League 1945; Mercosur 1991; and CELAC 2010. As you see, a plethora. On 4 February 2022, Presidents Putin and Xi issued their Joint Declaration that's formally titled, "Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development", which is the first formal document aimed at all members of the Multipolar World spelling out their principles and goals. So yes, you are 100% correct that "the West will not be getting any choice in this." It's being presented as a fait accompli as Lavrov again stated a few days ago.
The West must undergo a massive behavioral change to be readmitted to humanity for at present it is an Anti-Human grouping as described in the Global Times editorial I linked to earlier today. If you read Dr. Hudson's ... and forgive them their debts, you'll discover the root of that behavior is rather deep. (Of course, by West I'm referring to elites holding power, not commoners having none.)
Simple is best, I doubt the logistics of whats been put forward, the sheer weight of explosive needed would be prohibitive for divers.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 11 2023 21:53 utc | 81
----------------------------
I am not sure, the subject is above my paygrade, but maybe an open signal could be detected if strong enough to guide a missile or three from a serious distance.
Also, there is the possibility that missile debris could be found during an investigation and traced back to the source.
Also, perhaps the missile trajectories could be determined and traced back to any ships or planes in the area at the time of the explosions.
I'm not saying I know because I have no training in this area and I could be completely off base. Just speculation on my part. Do you have training in this area Mark2?
Posted by: Ed | Feb 11 2023 22:46 utc | 98
No, bombing cities to rubble doesn't do much military damage to your opponent. Armies know how to survive that. Most old Soviet Cities have extensive bomb-shelters and fortified areas, and it doesn't take much time to build on those. In many cases bombing cities to rubble creates even better defensive terrain.Bombing cities to rubble is a terror weapon designed to sap the will of the population to fight and in some cases disrupt industry. Ukraine doesn't care about it's citizens in general and Eastern Ukrainian citizens in particular, so terror bombing won't work.
Not to mention Ukraine still has enough air-defenses to make fly-over bombing risky and expensive. Russia air force doesn't fly more than a couple dozen miles over Ukrainian held territory.
Posted by: Haassaan | Feb 11 2023 22:34 utc | 93
Quite incorrect in this case.
In Ugledar the problem is specifically high-rise buildings that are used as fortress towers by the Ukrainians. And civilians are on the lower floors and in the basements.
If you level those buildings, it becomes much easier to deal with the overal fortification.
But you can't do that because there are civilians.
And no, you don't need to fly directly over them.
It is also not even a dozen miles into Ukrainian territory, it is right at the frontline, and heavy glide bombs can be dropped from a safe distance. Big thermobaric Tornado-S missiles can be sent from even safer positions.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 11 2023 22:50 utc | 99
Kievan forces might get Storm Shadow with ranges of five hundred sixty kilometers.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-prepared-to-use-british-missiles-to-strike-crimea-d73rlk23p
I wonder when Kiev will get MGM-140 ATACMS.
Posted by: Morena | Feb 11 2023 22:50 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Panicky Stoltenberg tells #Romania to quickly deny that Russian missiles ever entered #Romania air space.
"We are not ready to face Russia"
https://twitter.com/Ukraine66251776/status/1624143510516670464
Now that Stoltenberg confirms through denying, maybe there was Russian missiles over Romania after all.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2023 17:03 utc | 1