US Industrial War production capacity is a complete joke and the MIC
knows it, that is why they contract everything to be produced elsewhere.
Just in time means not in time!

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Feb 6 2023 13:35 utc | 4

Posted by: laguerre | Feb 6 2023 13:23 utc | 3
That is semantics. Of course Nato (US) has no other choice, because immediate supplies have run out. Meanwhile Ukraine could run out of Ukrainians, before when, if ever, the supply from “future contracts” has materialized. And before supply of future contracts has materialized, the weapons from this days immediate supplies have run out. So they can whine all they want of the danger of losing Bakhmut, it won’t change a thing.
Now we hear that the Leopards will be crewed by Nato soldiers, because as with weapon supplies, the same applies with inability in training, and the need to crew from “current trained reserves” a.k.a. Nato a.k.a Polish, Czech and whatnot troops.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 13:38 utc | 6

OohCanada@7….any odds on which gets blown first, the engines, or turrets.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2023 13:49 utc | 8

Looks like Polish PM Morawieczki is attempting to go for a “Polish protectorate” in western Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1622588469506887680

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 14:00 utc | 10

nato crews…. the needed level of ‘competence’ is expensive, usa is the only military that can afford gas and spare parts to attempt to do “training”.
and buttoned up crews do not make successful operations

Posted by: paddy | Feb 6 2023 14:10 utc | 12

According to Warnews, the is a wide-scale Russian offensive taking place in the northern area — southward toward Kupyansk and westward from Kreminna toward Siversk. Don’t see anyone else reporting it though. Tried to post a link, but post didn’t take. Headline was: “Russian wide-scale offensive from Kupyansk to Seversk.” They do have a cool video of the BMP Terminator in action.

Posted by: KellenCramer | Feb 6 2023 14:48 utc | 14

According to Warnews, the is a wide-scale Russian offensive taking place in the northern area — southward toward Kupyansk and westward from Kreminna toward Siversk. Don’t see anyone else reporting it though. Tried to post a link, but post didn’t take. Headline was: “Russian wide-scale offensive from Kupyansk to Seversk.” They do have a cool video of the BMP Terminator in action.
Posted by: KellenCramer | Feb 6 2023 14:48 utc | 14
Apparently a large ofensive by Russia using the BMPT Terminator.
https://warnews247.gr/rosiki-epithesi-evreias-klimakas-apo-koupiansk-mechri-seversk-vdv-me-bmpt-terminator-gazonoun-tis-oukranikes-amynes-pagkosmia-proti-gia-tous-exolothreftes/

Posted by: jgalt | Feb 6 2023 14:56 utc | 16

Is it not stupid that The Empire wants to attach Russia and China in the same time?
They are even announcing that they would attack China soon. They are creating immense hysteria about this balloon incident.
Now China knows, they are the next. But this propaganda is frightening. What is in their heads? Why are they?
Why is this so?
Are they stupid or something else?
Could that be some strategy we do not understand?

Posted by: Meternich | Feb 6 2023 15:08 utc | 18

Looks like Polish PM Morawieczki is attempting to go for a “Polish protectorate” in western Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1622588469506887680
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 14:00 utc | 10
The same is happening with Transcarpathia. Hungary wants it back. And has warned Zelinsky about his treatment of Hungarians living there.
By the time this is over Russia, Poland and Hungary will have consumed most of Ukraine. Zelinsky will rule aa city state called Kiev.

Posted by: jgalt | Feb 6 2023 15:18 utc | 20

🇺🇦🪖In Poltava region,Ukrainian recruitment officers kidnapped a boy in front of his mother to be used as cannon fodder.
The video stops when the military man starts swinging his first against the mum.
Now he will go to fight for “freedom and democracy”

https://t.me/azmilitary11/36398
Video in Tweet
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1622595103486275584

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 15:31 utc | 22

Meternich – 18
That’s the trick, and our main issue: US “leaders” are playing 1-D chess.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Feb 6 2023 15:37 utc | 24

As predicted Poland comes from behind former territories.
Hoping $5 comes into effect if Putin laughs at it?
.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marowiecki called on Zelenskyy to “temporarily” transfer the territories of western Ukraine to Poland.
“I don’t think Putin would dare attack a country that is an active member of NATO. He’s anything but suicidal. The western territories of Ukraine will be safe if they temporarily fall under the protectorate of the Polish state,” he said.

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 15:42 utc | 26

not dollar was meant … but § 5

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 15:44 utc | 28

mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 15:42 utc | 26
“Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marowiecki called on Zelenskyy to “temporarily” transfer the territories of western Ukraine to Poland.
“I don’t think Putin would dare attack a country that is an active member of NATO. He’s anything but suicidal. The western territories of Ukraine will be safe if they temporarily fall under the protectorate of the Polish state,” he said.”
The most unequivocal Russian red line is that the Borderland cannot be NATOized. That’s the proximate reason Russia has gone to war. The red line against any formal NATO incursion into Ukrainian territory, which includes any Polish debouchment, stems from this. It’s the Polish invasion which will be suicidal, if the Russians stand by the entire premise of the SMO.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 15:50 utc | 30

As the zero line in Ukraine freezes for the second time this winter, it appears the Russians are pushing at multiple places along the battle ground. This prevents the AFU from sending a massive number of reserve troops to any one location.
Getting reports now that Ukrainian units are not rotating as 16 year olds are being pressed into service by Ukraine.
Looks like the Ukrainian troop loses combined with increased zero line attacks by the Russians is starting to take its toll on the AFU.

Posted by: young | Feb 6 2023 16:05 utc | 32

if the Russians stand by the entire premise of the SMO.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 15:50 utc | 30
It depends on two things. How much land Duda wants and if he’ll shoot missiles from there towards Russia. If he takes the historical part and doesn’t shoot a single bullet it’ll look bad as propaganda, nato will say they can do anything they want and Russia has to accept it, but otherwise I don’t see any problems for SMO. Russia and US don’t attack each other in Syria. And Russia will still get a new large border with nato in Finland, what’s the difference if Lvov makes Duda horny?
But proxies will continue to fight, with or without Poland’s invasion. Today Norway announced they’ll sponsor the war with $7bn. I see no problem for the entire natostan to find $100bn per year to keep the puppets fighting. Some day they’ll stop large attacks, when locals will be mostly dead, and continue in small groups, simple terrorism.

Posted by: rk | Feb 6 2023 16:15 utc | 34

As far as western Ukraine with Poland is concerned, everything depends whether Poland will nurture the Ukrainian nazi factions in that area, as in fund and arm them. Most likely they will.
Will be interesting to see how the media tries to spin this Anschluss, and how they get Nato umbrella. From Russian POV, they simply won’t care if Poland tries to present it under Nato umbrella, they will just do what needed to that area regardless.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 16:33 utc | 36

History is a good guide, but not necessarily the last word. From 1943 on, the Red Army had a distinct manner of launching offensive actions. In the overview history books these look like big arrow, deep operations (and they were) but on the ground those offensives generally started with rippling offensives across the whole front. Sometimes geographically sequential, sometimes less “organized”. The Wehrmacht was pretty well knowledgeable about the first line Red Army units but much less knowledgeable about offensive reserves. The Red Army would start the rippling offensives and force the Wehrmacht to move defensive reserves around to counter threats or failing lines. It would also have to guess where the main thrust of the Soviets was coming from. Sometimes this thrust was planned, sometimes it was opportunistic.
Perhaps this sounds familiar to what we’re seeing on the ground now? There’s been a lot of VSU shuffling of reinforcements all fall and winter. A lot of short Russian offensives on the local level. And of course a lot of grinding.
I still do not think we’ll see classic, Red Army deep operations. For one the modern intelligence context makes the hiding and moving of offensive reserves much more difficult than WWII (though it does seem clear that Russia is still practicing this to the extent it can, e.g. all the trains of equipment going somewhere). I also suspect that true deep operations can’t have the same success on the modern battlefield because they cannot interrupt the command, control and communication of the enemy like they once could. Those deep arrows were always exposed and dangerous, but much more so in the world of satellites and drones. I do think we’re seeing “the offensive” but for it to be bigger we’ll likely have to wait until there is a real break in the ukrainian lines somewhere.

Posted by: Lex | Feb 6 2023 17:17 utc | 38

rk | Feb 6 2023 16:15 utc | 34
“Russia and US don’t attack each other in Syria.”
Syria is far away from the Russian border.
“And Russia will still get a new large border with nato in Finland, what’s the difference if Lvov makes Duda horny?”
Finland may be showing signs of getting cold feet about its brash NATO-lusting proclamations. According to what I read they’re now saying they want entry only simultaneously with Sweden, a scenario which seems much on the back burner.
But if they go ahead and Turkey drops its objections or NATO overrides Turkey and Finland’s NATOization is imminent, it’ll be a target for another Russian military-technical enterprise.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 17:44 utc | 40

Denmark which denuded itself of its military hardware and sent it to be destroyed in Ukraine is facing its biggest protests in decades, “Thousands of Danes Revolt Against Removal Of Christian Holiday To Subsidize War Spending”:

The so-called Great Prayer Day is a Christian holiday that dates back to 1686 and falls on the fourth Friday after Easter.
Abolishing the holiday was first proposed in December in a bid to help raise tax revenues for higher military spending in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, which swept Denmark’s stockpiles of weapons clean and emptied its defense coffers, as Copenhagen became one of Kiev’s most committed allies in Europe.
However, the vast amount of aid sent to Ukraine scraped Denmark’s resources bare and endangered its ambition to meet NATO’s defense spending target of 2 percent of the GDP. According to the coalition government (uniting once-bitter rivals the Social Democrats and the Liberals), the DKK 4.5Bln ($654Mln) needed to meet the goal could be covered by the extra tax revenues raised by scrapping the holiday.

IMO, the donated war material ought to count toward the 2% levy as it is a NATO war.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 18:09 utc | 42

Posted by: DR-Montreal | Feb 6 2023 15:08 utc | 17
Well said – thx!

Posted by: xLemming | Feb 6 2023 18:26 utc | 44

AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎@AZgeopolitics
🪖📄🇺🇦EVEN CHILDREN AREN’T SPARED: Ukrainian recruitment officers trying taking children away from mothers as woman defends her children from Kiev’s military commissioners,who came to take away her 16 and 17-year-old kids
Nuland investment in Maidan Coup must be returned with 🩸

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1622660027277352961
Video in Tweet

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 18:31 utc | 46

Finland may be showing signs of getting cold feet about its brash NATO-lusting proclamations. According to what I read they’re now saying they want entry only simultaneously with Sweden, a scenario which seems much on the back burner.
But if they go ahead and Turkey drops its objections or NATO overrides Turkey and Finland’s NATOization is imminent, it’ll be a target for another Russian military-technical enterprise.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 17:44 utc | 40

There is really no going back for Finland.
They showed their true colors and made it clear they are enemies of Russia.
Note that, and that is the most depressing part, it wasn’t just the WEF-spawned “leadership” that engaged in vicious Russophobia. Regular people on the streets did too, once they were told Russia is the enemy. It was a very sudden 180 as Finland has historically been the Western country with the closest ties and friendliest relationships with Russia. And yet…
The Russians will not forget that.
And that kind of leaves Finland no choice but to get under NATO’s nuclear umbrella. If that is a real thing, of course.
Eighty years of efforts to build good relationships wasted just like that…

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:40 utc | 48

It depends on two things. How much land Duda wants and if he’ll shoot missiles from there towards Russia. If he takes the historical part and doesn’t shoot a single bullet it’ll look bad as propaganda, nato will say they can do anything they want and Russia has to accept it, but otherwise I don’t see any problems for SMO. Russia and US don’t attack each other in Syria. And Russia will still get a new large border with nato in Finland, what’s the difference if Lvov makes Duda horny?
But proxies will continue to fight, with or without Poland’s invasion. Today Norway announced they’ll sponsor the war with $7bn. I see no problem for the entire natostan to find $100bn per year to keep the puppets fighting. Some day they’ll stop large attacks, when locals will be mostly dead, and continue in small groups, simple terrorism.
Posted by: rk | Feb 6 2023 16:15 utc | 34

It is probably not acceptable for the Russians not to have Transcarpathia. Presumably they would gladly hand the Hungarian portion of it to Hungary, but that is actually just the western strip of Transcarpathia, the rest is not Hungarians. It isn’t Ukrainian either — it is inhabited by Rusyns, a separate Slavic ethnicity, who tend to be pro-Russian. Which is why if you look at those famous electoral maps, you will notice that Transcarpathia clusters with places like Dnepropetrovsk, not with hardcore Banderaland. It is also why they are sent to the front in such numbers — ethnic cleansing through combat.
But the well being of the Rusyns isn’t the important thing here, it is two other objectives:
1) The land connection with Hungary, and through Hungary to Serbia (which is now land locked and in a very difficult position).
2) Pushing the borders as far West as possible — recall the December 2017 ultimatums and what those demanded.
So maybe there is a scenario in which Poland is handed Lvov, Ternopol and Ivano-Frankovsk (in order to weaken Poland, which such a move will do), but the latter two not in whole, i.e. Russia keeps the strip on the Romanian border and most of Transcarpathia. If you look at the roads and highways map, with some additional investment, that might work.
But there are serious doubts the Poles will do a proper denazaification of that cesspool

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:49 utc | 50

On Ukr casualties, according to Colonel MacGregor, at a meeting of Zaluzhny with Millie, Zaluzhny told Millie that the irretrievable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the time of the meeting were 257,000 people (killed, missing, captured) (source: supressa.ru). If Millie was the source of that information, those numbers are as good as gold. Zaluzhny would not lie to Millie.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Feb 6 2023 19:03 utc | 52

There are reports of Ukrainian troops using chemical weapons at Soledar and Artemovsk. A Russian investigative committee is looking into the claim. Some Russian soldiers experienced nausea, vomiting, severe dizziness (supressa.ru).

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Feb 6 2023 19:18 utc | 54

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 19:11 utc | 53
Thanks for the link and the excerpt. Obviously many here will agree with Crooke.
But whoa! You’re saying that radical far-leftist non-US citizen former terrorist associate Obama was a CIA product?! /sarc

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 6 2023 19:22 utc | 56

“If the balloon hadn’t existed, the US would have had to invent it”
.
The incident was also the subject of Russian TV’s weekly news review on Sunday, which featured a report by Russia’s China correspondent on the Chinese perspective.
.
Thomas Röper
– https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2023/wenn-es-den-ballon-nicht-gegeben-haette-haetten-die-usa-ihn-erfinden-muessen/?doing_wp_cron=1675711747.3079049587249755859375 –
.
Start of translation:
.
Relations between the US and China are escalating
The US didn’t know what to do with the Chinese hot air balloon that has plowed through American skies for several days. Allegedly for scientific purposes. On the ground, they racked their brains: should they shoot him down or not?
Our correspondent reports from China about the new escalation.
And finally he was shot down. After nearly four days of hesitation and ridicule, a squadron of fighter jets, including an F-22, fired a single missile at the balloon over the South Carolina coast. A decision that Biden did not take lightly. He’s dodged the questions all those days. Now he can proudly say he gave the order to the military to ‘pop’ the balloon on Wednesday, but was advised against it because he could allegedly come down in the wrong place. In the end it was decided it was time.
The debris is in the water, but the Pentagon has already said it has examined them all. And it’s a Chinese spy. Americans insisted on this as soon as they saw the strange white dot in the sky over Montana: It looked like the moon, but there are no two moons side by side. And if he’s right over ICBM silos and strategic bomber bases, it must be a spy from China who’s been flying all over Alaska and half of Canada.
Official Beijing took half a day before replying that it was too early to make a fuss: “This is a civilian apparatus used for research purposes, primarily meteorological purposes. Under the influence of westerly winds and with limited self-piloting capabilities, the airship veered far from its intended course. The Chinese side regrets the accidental entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure.”
The Chinese explanation, it was immediately clear, would not satisfy the Americans. Washington is always on the lookout for any trace of Chinese espionage. Huawei’s 5G networks. tik tok And now a whole weather balloon the size of three buses, which according to the Pentagon is clearly in the service of the Communist Party. The American press even labeled General Milly as a collaborator with China, giving him a Chinese military uniform and renaming him Mi Li. Because he advised Biden not to shoot the balloon for fear of damage in the crash. And while the rest of America watched helplessly as its warplanes circled the balloon, the US President’s administration took a beating, both from its own side and from others.
“When balloons enter US airspace unhindered, it proves that the US air defense system is just a decoration and cannot be trusted,” writes the Global Times.
Are the “eagles afraid of balloons”? That was already China’s Consul General Zhang Meifang to the American “hawks”. And on Chinese social networks, it was jokingly suggested that it was a congratulations to Americans on the Lantern Festival, when it is customary to let the lanterns rise into the sky. After all, this is today.
It is the final chord in the celebration of the Chinese New Year. And Blinken, about to travel to Beijing, chose not to fly because of the balloon, when it certainly could have celebrated more happily than Biden did in his Oval Office. Especially since the Chinese know a lot about partying. Fire flowers are lit here in Zhangjiakou. (Translator’s note: This paragraph is difficult to understand without the accompanying images. Biden was shown performing a Chinese dance for him and the Chinese fire flowers discussed in the next paragraph.)
The ancient Chinese art of Da Shuhua forging is as beautiful as it is dangerous. After all, the metal that the men are splashing around is red-hot. Sino-US relations are just as red hot right now. The sparks are almost flying. The balloon for Washington appeared at just the right moment. A perfect excuse to cancel the trip and break off negotiations.
“Wang Yi stressed that China is a responsible country and has always strictly observed international law. We do not accept speculation and conjecture. In unexpected situations, both sides must remain resolute, communicate in a timely manner, avoid misjudgment and CIA chief Burns has just described China as the greatest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century: “This challenge differs from the challenge posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, which was only military and ideological. But the competition with China is unique in its scale, and it is really unfolding in almost every sphere, not only militarily and ideologically, but also economically and technologically – from cyberspace to outer space. It is global competition, perhaps even more intense than competition with the Soviet Union.”
The fact that the US is talking about competition and not war does not change the heart of the matter: Beijing is being cut off from cutting-edge technology and markets by any means necessary. Now Washington has forced the Netherlands and Japan to stop supplying China with equipment for making ultra-thin and high-performance chips, which could seriously hamper China’s plans for its “semiconductor revolution.” Beijing has vowed to respond ruthlessly: “The ‘US nuclear weapon’ is the technology, China’s ‘nuclear option’ is the market. If you have a market but no technology, you can develop the technology; if you have a technology but no market, the development of the technology hits a dead end. Since the US has used ‘nuclear weapons’ against China, China must also use its own ‘nuclear option’ to counterattack.”
However, the US is also brandishing real nuclear weapons. And they are preparing to cover all of Asia with their nuclear shield. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said this openly on his trip to Tokyo and Seoul and classified Beijing, Pyongyang and Moscow as follows: “As long as there are nuclear weapons, especially since authoritarian forces in Russia have them and are investing heavily in their mobilization, as long as we see what China is doing by increasing the number of weapons and what North Korea is doing, nuclear deterrence is extremely important in these circumstances.”
Chinese newspapers have already dubbed it the “NATO crusade to the east,” and Washington’s recent attempt to strengthen military integration of allies has been likened to pawns.
“NATO should give serious thought to the role the Alliance has played in maintaining European security. NATO continues to expand its military ties with Asia-Pacific countries and publicizes the Chinese threat, which has alarmed a number of countries. I would like to emphasize that the Asia-Pacific region is not a place for geopolitical competition, bloc confrontation and Cold War thinking are not welcome here,” said Mao Ning, spokesman for China’s foreign ministry.
But the United States, as the leader of the alliance, continues to incite its neighbors against Beijing. Pentagon boss Austin followed Stoltenberg to Korea to strengthen resistance against Pyongyang. They even conducted Luftwaffe maneuvers over the Yellow Sea. The US is getting closer and closer to Taiwan. And they continue to advise the island’s government. Now, retired Admiral Davidson, former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, has arrived in Taipei. This is the one who assured Beijing would launch a Taiwanese operation by 2027. But one could provoke China even earlier. US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman McCaul is gearing up to follow in Pelosi’s footsteps in the spring. And her successor as Speaker of Parliament, Kevin McCarthy, too.
But Beijing has warned that simultaneously agreeing to cooperate and interfering in China’s internal affairs – which includes the Taiwan issue – is impossible. And the talks with Blinken in Beijing would have yielded nothing anyway. If the balloon over Montana hadn’t existed, Americans would have had to invent it.
end of translation

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 19:32 utc | 58

Budanov, the new minister of defense, is considered here to be more competent. But what does that mean? He recently confessed in an interview with a Ukrainian paper that the negotiations in Istanbul (end of March) were just to gain time. They wanted Russia to withdraw from the east of Kiyiv (Bucha) and so it did as a gesture. “To gain time” we have heard that now over and over from Merkel, from Hollande, from Poroshenko. With such an extremist minister and such Western partners the Russians see that negotiations do not have any sense. The only thing is to fight until what remains surrenders unconditionnally. Just like Japan did on the ship Missouri on 2 Sept. 1945

Posted by: Teraspol | Feb 6 2023 19:38 utc | 60

I have already seen mentions of it here before, but I think that Erwan Castel’s TG channel and blog don’t really get enough attention, possibly because they’re in French.
His reports, both in written and spoken form, are highly interesting. One of the few that can speak 10 minutes without saying “ehm, hm, mmmh”. As a former officer of the FAF, he also knows a few bits about the military situation.
I cannot access his blog because of either technical issues or “age verification” (wtf?)…
TG: t.me/ErwanKastel
Blog: alawata-rebellion.blogspot.com (no, I currently cannot access it unfortunately)

Posted by: Verdant | Feb 6 2023 19:42 utc | 62

@jgalt, §20:
And Rumania hopes to get its Dniester border back with the cession of Bessarabia.
If the Rumanians were smart, they´d do a secret deal with the Russians now and cooperate with the Russian seizure of the Black Sea coast up to and including Odessa.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 19:48 utc | 64

@mo3.1, §26:
Ha! Ha!
Perhaps Rumania could try that ruse too with Bessarabia – and Czecho/Slovakia with Transcarpathia?

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 19:55 utc | 66

As reported at The Saker’s, “Ukrainian refugees are becoming a burden to the Baltic states”, this bit of info I found curious to say the least:
“During the meeting, experts from the Baltic countries discussed the problem of Ukrainian refugees and their impact on the lives of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
“The conference was held in Russian. It is curious that even 32 years after the collapse of the USSR, the inhabitants of the Baltic countries prefer Russian rather than English in interstate communication.” [My Emphasis]
One question I’ve had is answered below:
“One of the reasons for holding the conference was the question of the economic feasibility of accepting refugees. After all, the governments of the Baltic countries allocate huge funds to support them (Lithuania – 81 million euros, Latvia – 72 million euros, Estonia – 58 million euros). At the same time, the states are in a severe economic crisis (increase in unemployment, closure of enterprises, growth in housing and communal services tariffs and prices for energy sources). Below the poverty line is more than 25% of the population. What is this if not disregard for the interests of it`s own people for the sake of the political situation and under pressure from the EU.”
It’s possible that the Baltics will become the new Ukraine based on the observations I read in the report.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 20:09 utc | 68

@Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:36 utc | 47
The pre-2022 Ukrainian emigration was already skewed toward healthy young men and women. A lot of extra healthy young men got out of Ukraine in 2022 before they started stopping them at the border and through smuggling/bribery etc. In addition, post-1990 the Ukrainian birth rate fell sharply (current rate is 1.16 way below replacement rate of 2.2, it really crashed in the 1990s reflected in the low numbers of 20-30 year olds), so the age distribution skews old with much less 15-40 year olds than there otherwise would be. In the link below is the “make believe” age distribution based on Ukrainian statistics, even that looks pretty awful. Then deduct millions of 20-30 years leaving for jobs abroad, refugees, in Russian territories.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
The population of the four oblasts that are now part of Russia is approx. 10 million, we can probably assume that 60-80% of the population is either in Russia as refugees or within Russia-controlled areas – lets say 7 million. Assume 6 million refugees at least and that makes 13 million reduction from 2021 levels – which at best were 35 million, therefore 22 million. But that is heavily skewed toward old people.
@Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 6 2023 18:47 utc | 49
There will be a limit beyond which military age male refugees will not be welcomed anymore, I think in the European countries earlier than Canada – especially if Ukrainian young men keep beating up the locals. As even Canada is sending more and more money and arms, plus “advisers” and sheep-dipped regulars (made to look like mercenaries) there will be more and more questions about all those able-bodied Ukrainians in our country. There will be no way that official NATO boots on the ground can be put in Ukraine without all those Ukrainian male refugees being sent to the front to die. Not even Freeland can resist that.
If I were a young adult male I would be watching what happens to those able-bodied Ukrainian men in my country. If they start to be forcibly sent back to Ukraine to fight, then I should assume that I may be next or some form of military service will be re-instituted. If I were in the army I would look to retire and go abroad so that I could not be treated as a reservist. No reason for Canadians to be fighting Russians in Ukraine. Not my problem though as I will 60 years old this year.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:14 utc | 70

If one considers all the funds and energy “invested” poorly by the leaders no longer vested in my humble opinion to shoot down a balloon harmless versus the funds it would take to help refugees fleeing a conflict not of their choice, then you must be able to understand the absurdity of current times and then accordingly must realize – this cannot last.
~
Any sane mind, inwit to the times, concludes that the EU and the UK are TOAST. I’ve been preaching this in a way, so I am biased, but seems to me the evidence is in and how much longer can the ridiculousness continue until a mistake is made, inadvertent or not, that spells the end of the human experiment on planet earth?
~
So, as an effing fly on the wall, I sure hope some fools get a clue, and if you want my advice, then better to align with Russia than liars proven.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 20:22 utc | 72

@karlof1, §53
This idea of using Europeans as proxies was kicked off by Voldemort, aka Tony Blair (or

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 20:27 utc | 74

@Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 20:09 utc | 68
And the leaders of the Baltic States just can’t stop escalating against Russia, wanting Russia’s funds stolen and given to Ukraine, threatening to close water access for Russia to the Baltic, destroying Soviet-era statues, now it seems training terrorist groups to attack Belarus.
About 5% of Lithuanians are ethnic Russians, 25% of Latvia, and and 25% of Estonia. Given the ethnic-Russian geographic distribution, perhaps the “Narva People’s Republic”, and the “Daugavpils People’s Republic”. As Russia has a demographic issue I am surprised that they have not offered incentives to ethnic Russians to move to Russia, further depopulating the Baltic States. Russia has been working to reduce its dependence on the Baltic States for trade (e.g. shipping of goods) and Lithuania cut itself off from China over Taiwan. All three Baltic States removed themselves from the Eastern European 16+1 agreement with respect to trade with China.
So yes, a future of ongoing depopulation, economic decline and fascist Russia-hating leaders owned by NATO/EU, together with perhaps ethic Russian breakaway republics. It looks more and more like the Western “genius” elites think that they can use the Baltics as an increasing pressure point against Belarus/Russia, especially as Ukraine slowly collapses in the face of Russian power.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:35 utc | 76

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 20:09 utc | 68
Not related to the content of your post, but I was under the impression that The Saker was going to go dark or had already. From your link it seems like they’re still going. Do you know what the story is on that?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 6 2023 20:39 utc | 78

In response to #79 above….maybe not for long but whatever…
~
the more likely outcome is the operation is coming to a swift conclusion and if it is not evident to you yet, let me be the first to tell you. Russia has prevailed and for good reason. I for one would like to be able to watch that video again about the place where they honored their WWII heroes, many of whom gave their lives for the motherland. So, when this link comes back again versus being “unavailable” I will know that the losers have realized how wrong they have been and how wrong they are presently.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/the-main-cathedral-of-the-russian-armed-forces/
Not kidding around.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 20:49 utc | 80

Ukraine brings Poland to utter ruin 18%
.
“We get angry because we count every cent.” With these words, the Poles comment on the record price increase that they see in shops every day. Now these shops are closing themselves, and the same is threatening Polish farms. People become poor and start saving for the most ordinary things. And here, it seems, Ukraine?
Polish Radio Zet shared the results of a study by international analysis company Uce Research. It turned out that the criminal situation in the country has significantly deteriorated. In just ten months of the past year, the number of thefts in shops in Poland increased by about 30%. The reasons for the increase in crime were economic instability and rising prices.
Expect the worst
“Poles are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet due to inflation, which has now reached almost 18%… Now not every resident of Poland can afford to meet even their basic needs,” says Uce Research.
Journalist Katarzyna Witwicka-Jurek reports: “The topic of shoplifting has been much discussed in recent weeks. Many, seeing this as a worsening social problem, could argue for harsher penalties for such acts. More and more Poles understand that honest consumers actually pay for shoplifting. Shops pass their losses on to customers and raise prices accordingly.”
At the same time, according to the journalist, harsher punishments will not seriously help the trouble, since many people steal from banal hunger and poverty. “The maximum that can be achieved is to further aggravate the social situation of people who commit theft,” says Katarzyna Witwicka-Jurek.
.
https://vz.ru/world/2023/2/6/1197089.html

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 20:52 utc | 82

@Posted by: Johnycomelately | Feb 6 2023 20:40 utc | 79
From the processes kicking into place in European countries to force young men to receive their call up summons, more likely that group will be trained in Europe for the next phase of the conflict to keep Ukrainian fighting to the last Ukrainian – perhaps to defend the Dneiper line.
With the scale of losses, demographics, emigration and moves of population to Russia/Russian oblasts I don’t see any masses of Ukrainians currently being secretly trained in Europe. More like a few 10,000s that are desperately being fed in to hold the line, plus mercenaries and “sheep-dips” – although the latter may get harder to recruit given the open source material on the huge losses and brutal fighting conditions. Very different from fighting sheep herders. Ukraine has already had to accept the inability to mount any offensive given losses and Russian pressure.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:55 utc | 84

Why not I think to myself, but I will tell you this. That video presently “unavailable” I watched it when it was available, and a friend of mine he saved it and I’m sure I could find it again because it was most impressive. But I think it ought be available, and so I reckon I will wait to watch it again, but it is out there and it is known and really…..Odessa, Odesa, the place of it, on the Black Sea, a serious place where serious things occur, it beckons for better times.
~
So, how much harm must be caused until the ones devoted to trickery to achieve their objectives realize they are NOT as smart as they think they are? Well, my chips are on the table, I am all in, my bet is placed and now all that we are waiting for is resolution. I bet against those who think trickery is something they can use to their advantage and just like a nuclear weapon I know, either way I will win this bet, or at a minimum I won’t lose it.
~
So think about it – if you think you win by trickery, then eventually you must know somebody smarter than you will trick you and you will lose permanently, and frankly, the EU and the UK are toast and us of a is in for some big changes, but who knows what history has to offer….so, if we don’t kill ourselves, then maybe something better is on the horizon?
~
Place your bets.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 21:09 utc | 86

Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadyrov:
“Warsaw, in the framework of supporting Ukraine, managed to exhaust its own military resources, and now it is confused: what if, after the successful completion of the NMD, Russia begins to demilitarize the next country? After Ukraine, Poland is on the map! I will not hide that I personally have such an intention, and I have stated more than once that the fight against Satanism must continue throughout Europe, and especially in Poland. That’s how the Poles made it happen.”

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 21:14 utc | 88

There are reports on telegram channels…I cannot translate them to verify…but women will start to called up next mobilization…there was reports of 50,000 women already at the front…even if employed as medics…that is a dangerous occupation because artillery is non discriminatory. Here again adding to the narrative that the situation on ground is desperate and I suspect NATO will slowly adjust the casualty figures to justify intervention with all that propositioned equipment

Posted by: Joe | Feb 6 2023 21:26 utc | 90

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:55 utc | 84
I agree. There is no “massive Ukrainian army armed with Western weapons” hiding somewhere, in country or out of country. If there were, it would have been leaked by now, certainly if it were in Europe, less so in Ukraine (but not from the Russians.)
Western reports repeatedly talk about a few thousand Ukrainian soldiers here, a few there, being training in whatever. That’s it. That’s all they have. If there were any more, we’d know it. The West can’t physically train more than that, that’s obvious.
The rest of them are conscripts in country, zero training, zero combat experience, and as Scott Ritter is talking about on Medhurst right now as I type this, the latter is critical for performance. If you don’t have muscle memory training on how to use your hardware in combat, you’re dead in an hour. Like the Ukrainian soldier who said in an interview recently that the life span of a conscript in combat is four hours (exaggerated, of course, but definitely can be counted in days.) This is accelerated in the case of operating complex hardware like a tank or mobile artillery in combat.
Ritter is also saying that all the US Special Forces guys, the big SEALs, Delta Force, etc. wouldn’t survive on the Ukrainian battlefield, either. So how does Ukrainian conscripts survive, armed with western weapons they can’t use effectively?
This concept of a “hidden Ukrainian army preparing for a spring or summer offensive” is total bullshit. The best they can do is summon up ten, twenty, thirty thousand troops with a battalion of tanks and artillery and launch local tactical attacks, not “offensives” – Kherson and Kharkiv weren’t even “offensives” in the classic term. Compare that with Russia’s new three hundred thousand trained regular army, plus the original Russian forces of 150-200,000, plus the rumors of yet another 200,000 Russian regular army to be mobilized. Then add in the massive Russian fortifications the New York Times reported on with actual pictures.
Any Ukrainian “offensive”, regardless of numbers and western weapons, will die on the battlefield in less than a week.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 6 2023 21:30 utc | 92

Medhurst is closing out his interview with Ritter as I type this. But he’s continuing his usual live broadcast, so it may be a couple hours before it’s available for download. He’s talking about the EU ban on Russian oil currently.
He’s discussing this article:
Sanctions on Russian crude oil have ‘failed completely,’ oil analyst says
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/sanctions-on-russian-crude-oil-have-failed-completely-oil-analyst-says.html
The link again:
Richard Medhurst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Vh4toMKI0E

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 6 2023 21:35 utc | 94

>I>Journalist: “Who will man all those tanks”
Markus Reisner: “I take off my uniform, sign a contract and go to Ukraine. I’m no longer an Austrian soldier.”
He explains how NATO is sending troops to Ukraine.
-> We all knew that these “volunteers” are not really “volunteers” anyway
Markus is a colonel and Head of Research and Development Department of the Austrian Theresian Military Academy. He speaks the quiet part out loud.
Posted by: hankster | Feb 6 2023 21:32 utc | 93
It became clear in his latest videos for the Austrian army with regard to the conflict, that his neutrality has gone. It increasingly became an anti-Russian tirade, focussing on Russian faults and losses, but staying well clear of any Ukrainian setbacks and shortfalls.
Maybe he is better of manning one of these ageing tanks and facing the T80s, 90s, and Terminators head on – if his tank ever comes close enough.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Feb 6 2023 21:48 utc | 96

According to Brian at “the new atlas”, Germany is sending 12 Leo 2 and 88 leo 1 tanks. It is no coincidence that this is in our face NAZI numbers:
1488 is a combination of two popular white supremacist numeric symbols. The first symbol is 14, which is shorthand for the “14 Words” slogan: “We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.” The second is 88, which stands for “Heil Hitler” (H being the 8th letter of the alphabet). Together, the numbers form a general endorsement of white supremacy and its beliefs.
https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/1488

Posted by: Krollchem | Feb 6 2023 22:09 utc | 98

@Roger, §76:
Yes. indeed.
Russia could really hurt both Estonia and Latvia by inviting/encouraging ethnic Russians to return. This would help Russia´s demographic and seriously reduce the tax base of both Estonia and Latvia. Those minnows should look at their own economies, rapidly shrinking down a black hole.
Easy meat, I suppose for the NeoCon corporations – but very thin pickings.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 22:14 utc | 100