Telegram says

1. Budanov has been made Ukranazi Minister of Defence in place of Reznikov. Budanov is certainly more competent than Reznikov, though with the current state of the Ukranazi military that might not mean much.

2. Austria acknowledged what we ask knew: the Leopards will be crewed by NATOstani regulars in Ukranazistani uniform.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 6 2023 12:53 utc | 1

Is the US about to make another quick exit like Afghanistan and Vietnam?

The “official narrative” surrounding the Ukrainian Conflict has flipped in recent weeks from prematurely celebrating Kiev’s supposedly “inevitable” victory to nowadays seriously warning about its likely loss.

It was therefore expected in hindsight that other dimensions of the information warfare campaign waged by the US-led West’s Golden Billion against Russia would also change. As proof of precisely that, the New York Times (NYT) just admitted that the West’s anti-Russian sanctions are a failure. More at ZH

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Feb 6 2023 13:06 utc | 2

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Feb 6 2023 13:06 utc | 2

The warnings of likely loss are for the moment intended to justify more contracts. Berletic has noted a shift in military aid for Ukraine from immediate supplies from reserves to contracts for production from new, weapons which it will take time to manufacture.

Posted by: laguerre | Feb 6 2023 13:23 utc | 3

US Industrial War production capacity is a complete joke and the MIC
knows it, that is why they contract everything to be produced elsewhere.
Just in time means not in time!

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Feb 6 2023 13:35 utc | 4

@ SwissArmyMan | Feb 6 2023 13:06 utc | 2

The World Police have grabbed a bear by the tail with one hand and a dragon by the tail with the other. What an interesting time to be alive.

Posted by: chunga | Feb 6 2023 13:37 utc | 5

Posted by: laguerre | Feb 6 2023 13:23 utc | 3

That is semantics. Of course Nato (US) has no other choice, because immediate supplies have run out. Meanwhile Ukraine could run out of Ukrainians, before when, if ever, the supply from "future contracts" has materialized. And before supply of future contracts has materialized, the weapons from this days immediate supplies have run out. So they can whine all they want of the danger of losing Bakhmut, it won't change a thing.

Now we hear that the Leopards will be crewed by Nato soldiers, because as with weapon supplies, the same applies with inability in training, and the need to crew from "current trained reserves" a.k.a. Nato a.k.a Polish, Czech and whatnot troops.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 13:38 utc | 6

Nato needs enough weapons on hand to fight Russia and China + keep control at home + piss around in countless countries. They can't keep handing everything over, once production is in full steam things might change. They are still sending over 100 tanks, the supplies and fuel for a force that large is no joke. The can't park hundreds of tanks in Ukraine, they are being sent in as needed.

Posted by: OohCanada | Feb 6 2023 13:45 utc | 7

[email protected] odds on which gets blown first, the engines, or turrets.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2023 13:49 utc | 8

This leads to the old joke:

Sergeant - Everyone in the front line who wants to volunteer to fight in Ukraine step forward.

Front Line - 95% step back, leaving two confused privates looking at each other.

Sergeant - Thank you private Braun and Schmidt. You are to leave immediately.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 6 2023 13:50 utc | 9

Looks like Polish PM Morawieczki is attempting to go for a "Polish protectorate" in western Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1622588469506887680

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 14:00 utc | 10

I think this is probably why we are at this point with Russia and eventually China. Trying to leave the USD is bad for your health.
https://twitter.com/VictorTheClean3/status/1519208366903599105?cxt=HHwWgoC5kb39p5UqAAAA

Posted by: jgalt | Feb 6 2023 14:03 utc | 11

nato crews.... the needed level of 'competence' is expensive, usa is the only military that can afford gas and spare parts to attempt to do "training".

and buttoned up crews do not make successful operations

Posted by: paddy | Feb 6 2023 14:10 utc | 12

Posted by: laguerre | Feb 6 2023 13:23 utc | 3

https://history.army.mil/books/wwii/csppp/ch10.htm

You might find this of interest !

Incidentally the orders placed by the Daladier Government for weapons from USA were transferred by Paul Reynaud' s Government for delivery to Britain after the Fall of France in May 1940

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 6 2023 14:15 utc | 13

According to Warnews, the is a wide-scale Russian offensive taking place in the northern area -- southward toward Kupyansk and westward from Kreminna toward Siversk. Don't see anyone else reporting it though. Tried to post a link, but post didn't take. Headline was: "Russian wide-scale offensive from Kupyansk to Seversk." They do have a cool video of the BMP Terminator in action.

Posted by: KellenCramer | Feb 6 2023 14:48 utc | 14

Trying to leave the USD is bad for your health.

It’s bad for for your health if you are Iraq or Libya, those countries aren’t Russia or China.

Posted by: Fred777 | Feb 6 2023 14:54 utc | 15

According to Warnews, the is a wide-scale Russian offensive taking place in the northern area -- southward toward Kupyansk and westward from Kreminna toward Siversk. Don't see anyone else reporting it though. Tried to post a link, but post didn't take. Headline was: "Russian wide-scale offensive from Kupyansk to Seversk." They do have a cool video of the BMP Terminator in action.

Posted by: KellenCramer | Feb 6 2023 14:48 utc | 14

Apparently a large ofensive by Russia using the BMPT Terminator.

https://warnews247.gr/rosiki-epithesi-evreias-klimakas-apo-koupiansk-mechri-seversk-vdv-me-bmpt-terminator-gazonoun-tis-oukranikes-amynes-pagkosmia-proti-gia-tous-exolothreftes/

Posted by: jgalt | Feb 6 2023 14:56 utc | 16

Like many in the world I am waiting for the Russian hammer to drop, to deliver a Fichtean Anstoss or "check" to the depredations of the Hegemon, indeed to see it shrivel away from the conflict like a snail from salt.

On a more visceral level I anticipate with great pleasure finally escaping the daily nausea of having to unwillingly imbibe the ceaseless propaganda from MMS, and to imagine the denizens in their "international community" (U.S. and client states--some 1/5 of the planet's population) looking up from their troughs wondering why the rich and heady daily fare has become a thin gruel of discontent and wan exculpation: why silent now the trumpets and drumbeats of war? Whereto our Great Cause? One can only hope this may obvert their understandings of the shadowplay on the wall as they are turned to face the light and realize that war is not peace, that slavery is not freedom, that ignorance is not strength etc. Bless you Eric Blair you saw it all coming. May all proles discover the liberation of apostasy.

But above all the final shattering of the NATO burlesque will give a blast of fresh air to the majority of the planet. We who have been watching a drunken bully beating up midgets on the dance floor for decades (Vietnam, Panama, Grenada, Iraq, Serbia, Syria et.al.), can now watch with justifiable schadenfreude, the aerated hubris of a tyrant rapidly deflated as the wheel of karma turns and he ends up in a real cage fight against the likes of Emelianenko... in Ukraine, or--goddess help us--globally.

The neo-cons and their reptilian ilk got the war they craved but are not popping the champagne in Washington at this point as they finally discern the hammer poised to drop. "Be careful what you wish for" as the trope goes.

Posted by: DR-Montreal | Feb 6 2023 15:08 utc | 17

Is it not stupid that The Empire wants to attach Russia and China in the same time?
They are even announcing that they would attack China soon. They are creating immense hysteria about this balloon incident.
Now China knows, they are the next. But this propaganda is frightening. What is in their heads? Why are they?

Why is this so?
Are they stupid or something else?
Could that be some strategy we do not understand?

Posted by: Meternich | Feb 6 2023 15:08 utc | 18

Meternich | Feb 6 2023 15:08 utc | 18

"The Empire wants to attack Russia and China in the same time?... They are creating immense hysteria about this balloon incident.

Could that be some strategy we do not understand?"

It's not a strategy that can be understood, unless perhaps by consulting Gibbon for some of the more precipitous times of the Roman Empire's "Decline and Fall". Maybe the reign of Elagobulus would be a good place to start.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 15:16 utc | 19

Looks like Polish PM Morawieczki is attempting to go for a "Polish protectorate" in western Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1622588469506887680

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 14:00 utc | 10

The same is happening with Transcarpathia. Hungary wants it back. And has warned Zelinsky about his treatment of Hungarians living there.
By the time this is over Russia, Poland and Hungary will have consumed most of Ukraine. Zelinsky will rule aa city state called Kiev.

Posted by: jgalt | Feb 6 2023 15:18 utc | 20

Elagabalus wasn't _that_ bad, and the Empire survived after him for over 200 years still.

Posted by: Catilina | Feb 6 2023 15:20 utc | 21

🇺🇦🪖In Poltava region,Ukrainian recruitment officers kidnapped a boy in front of his mother to be used as cannon fodder.

The video stops when the military man starts swinging his first against the mum.

Now he will go to fight for "freedom and democracy"

Video in Tweet

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1622595103486275584

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 15:31 utc | 22

Bakhmut is in touch.
The situation in the city is very difficult.
1) Orcs have changed direction and are bypassing Red Mountain and Paraskoviivka from the left flank. Now they are trying to go to the Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway and enter our flank and rear. If the maneuver is successful, the situation will become critical for the Armed Forces.

2. Unfortunately, there is an enemy advance in the east of the city.

3 In the southeast, in the south of the city, there are fierce battles in the private sector, the enemy has been stopped.

4. the orcs were thrown off the track at the exit from Bakhmut, but the situation near the track in the Ivanivske - Chasiv Yar section is very difficult. The information is being clarified. In the event that the enemy approaches it and implements the plan to bypass Krasnaya Gora, the situation in the city will become extremely dangerous for the Armed Forces.

Let's hold on! Bakhmut is Ukraine.

👉 Ukrainian 46th brigade post

👉Posted by the Ukrainian 93rd brigade.

‼️ NEWS FROM THE FIELDS ‼️

Correspondence with one of the fighters of the 93rd brigade 👇🏻

"Hello, everything is fine, but out of the 75 people who entered the positions, 13 combat-ready people remained, and so: 4 missing 9: 200, 2 szch 5 refuseniks, all the rest 300 "
"The battalion was beaten hard by 2 companies, there were only 3 combat-ready"
"Now in ❌❌❌ we are waiting for replenishment, and what is not known further, we ask and in response silence"

Apparently the command is waiting until there are those who can ask questions, and then they will answer the new replenishment, where they need to go and what to defend...

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 15:34 utc | 23

Meternich - 18
That's the trick, and our main issue: US "leaders" are playing 1-D chess.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Feb 6 2023 15:37 utc | 24

Military expert Boris Rozhin

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Situation in Bakhmut direction.

1. Krasna Gora has not been taken yet. There is progress both in the village itself and to the south of it. The situation for the remaining garrison is deteriorating.

2. There is also limited progress in Paraskovievka. The enemy is still resisting there in an organized manner. We don't throw caps ahead of time.

3. There is also an advance along the northern outskirts of Artemovsk. Here, on the one hand, our troops are trying to advance in the direction of the last road to Artemovsk and pull up the artillery, take it under fire control. On the other hand, the actions to the north and south of Krasna Gora demonstrate a desire to cut the supply lines of the enemy forces defending in Krasna Gora and Paraskovievka, forming a kind of mini-pot(cauldron) in the style of Gorsky and Zolotye, which can force the enemy to abandon positions in these settlements and roll back to the Chasiv Yar

4. The fall of Paraskovievka and Krasnaya Gora will make the abandonment of Artemovsk by the enemy inevitable, since the threat of an operational encirclement will become a pressing factor.

5. It is also worth noting that the pressure of our troops is increasing in the direction of the Yar and Krasny Clocks. The road through Krasnoe is inaccessible due to constant artillery fire.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 15:40 utc | 25

As predicted Poland comes from behind former territories.
Hoping $5 comes into effect if Putin laughs at it?
.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marowiecki called on Zelenskyy to "temporarily" transfer the territories of western Ukraine to Poland.

"I don't think Putin would dare attack a country that is an active member of NATO. He's anything but suicidal. The western territories of Ukraine will be safe if they temporarily fall under the protectorate of the Polish state,” he said.

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 15:42 utc | 26

The representative of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Vadim Skibitsky, confirmed the insider that we had published many times earlier that the RF Armed Forces are using the tactics of a multi-level “fan” to overheat the Ukrainian air defense.

Russia can break through Ukrainian air defenses by first mass-launching drones and then missiles, Ukrainian military intelligence says.

We have been writing about this for a long time and constantly.

The main thing that the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate did not say is that they began to save air defense missiles due to the high cost and shortage, and they are trying to use cheaper destruction options, attracting aviation, which the Russians are counting on, luring Ukrainian birds closer to the line of contact, destroying them with missiles R-37.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 15:43 utc | 27

not dollar was meant ... but § 5

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 15:44 utc | 28

jgalt | Feb 6 2023 15:18 utc | 20

"The same is happening with Transcarpathia. Hungary wants it back. And has warned Zelinsky about his treatment of Hungarians living there.
By the time this is over Russia, Poland and Hungary will have consumed most of Ukraine."

It's logical that Hungary will annex Transcarpathia with Russian support, once the Russians reach the Hungarian border. Meanwhile a Polish invasion of Galicia would invalidate the main purpose of the SMO if Russia allowed it to stand. It would be a NATOfied-Ukraine by other means.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 15:46 utc | 29

mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 15:42 utc | 26

"Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marowiecki called on Zelenskyy to "temporarily" transfer the territories of western Ukraine to Poland.

"I don't think Putin would dare attack a country that is an active member of NATO. He's anything but suicidal. The western territories of Ukraine will be safe if they temporarily fall under the protectorate of the Polish state,” he said."

The most unequivocal Russian red line is that the Borderland cannot be NATOized. That's the proximate reason Russia has gone to war. The red line against any formal NATO incursion into Ukrainian territory, which includes any Polish debouchment, stems from this. It's the Polish invasion which will be suicidal, if the Russians stand by the entire premise of the SMO.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 15:50 utc | 30

Catilina | Feb 6 2023 15:20 utc | 21

"Elagabalus wasn't _that_ bad, and the Empire survived after him for over 200 years still."

History often happens much faster in modern times.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 15:56 utc | 31

As the zero line in Ukraine freezes for the second time this winter, it appears the Russians are pushing at multiple places along the battle ground. This prevents the AFU from sending a massive number of reserve troops to any one location.

Getting reports now that Ukrainian units are not rotating as 16 year olds are being pressed into service by Ukraine.

Looks like the Ukrainian troop loses combined with increased zero line attacks by the Russians is starting to take its toll on the AFU.

Posted by: young | Feb 6 2023 16:05 utc | 32

So we have another Tu-141, this time clearly on its way to Moscow, and we know what it was armed with -- an anti-personnel OFAB 100-120 bomb full of flechettes.

But either AD shot it down or it flew too low and hit some unexpectedly tall pine trees near Kaluga (not quite clear which it is at the moment). So it didn't make it to Moscow.

Regardless, the intent is clear -- imagine that detonating in the middle of Moscow.

Someone is trying really hard to start WW3...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 16:11 utc | 33

if the Russians stand by the entire premise of the SMO.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 15:50 utc | 30

It depends on two things. How much land Duda wants and if he'll shoot missiles from there towards Russia. If he takes the historical part and doesn't shoot a single bullet it'll look bad as propaganda, nato will say they can do anything they want and Russia has to accept it, but otherwise I don't see any problems for SMO. Russia and US don't attack each other in Syria. And Russia will still get a new large border with nato in Finland, what's the difference if Lvov makes Duda horny?
But proxies will continue to fight, with or without Poland's invasion. Today Norway announced they'll sponsor the war with $7bn. I see no problem for the entire natostan to find $100bn per year to keep the puppets fighting. Some day they'll stop large attacks, when locals will be mostly dead, and continue in small groups, simple terrorism.

Posted by: rk | Feb 6 2023 16:15 utc | 34

Looks like Russia will have a lot to show for the one year anniversary of the special operation. I do feel very sorry for Blackrock and other corporations who have bribed Zelensky for post-war contracts as they'll never be able to cash in on them.

Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 6 2023 16:23 utc | 35

As far as western Ukraine with Poland is concerned, everything depends whether Poland will nurture the Ukrainian nazi factions in that area, as in fund and arm them. Most likely they will.

Will be interesting to see how the media tries to spin this Anschluss, and how they get Nato umbrella. From Russian POV, they simply won't care if Poland tries to present it under Nato umbrella, they will just do what needed to that area regardless.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 16:33 utc | 36

Slavyangrad Telegram Channel Reports....
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32267
Situation Report—February 6, 2023

One major push may transform everything at the front. I don’t believe in “15.02.23” (likely intentional misinformation) but I believe that a global offensive is coming very soon.

It is obvious to me that Ukie resistance is crumbling...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 6 2023 16:57 utc | 37

History is a good guide, but not necessarily the last word. From 1943 on, the Red Army had a distinct manner of launching offensive actions. In the overview history books these look like big arrow, deep operations (and they were) but on the ground those offensives generally started with rippling offensives across the whole front. Sometimes geographically sequential, sometimes less "organized". The Wehrmacht was pretty well knowledgeable about the first line Red Army units but much less knowledgeable about offensive reserves. The Red Army would start the rippling offensives and force the Wehrmacht to move defensive reserves around to counter threats or failing lines. It would also have to guess where the main thrust of the Soviets was coming from. Sometimes this thrust was planned, sometimes it was opportunistic.

Perhaps this sounds familiar to what we're seeing on the ground now? There's been a lot of VSU shuffling of reinforcements all fall and winter. A lot of short Russian offensives on the local level. And of course a lot of grinding.

I still do not think we'll see classic, Red Army deep operations. For one the modern intelligence context makes the hiding and moving of offensive reserves much more difficult than WWII (though it does seem clear that Russia is still practicing this to the extent it can, e.g. all the trains of equipment going somewhere). I also suspect that true deep operations can't have the same success on the modern battlefield because they cannot interrupt the command, control and communication of the enemy like they once could. Those deep arrows were always exposed and dangerous, but much more so in the world of satellites and drones. I do think we're seeing "the offensive" but for it to be bigger we'll likely have to wait until there is a real break in the ukrainian lines somewhere.

Posted by: Lex | Feb 6 2023 17:17 utc | 38

Read on TG: apparently UAF is reinforcing Ivanovske with one reinforced battalion from Kramatorsk attempting to prevent a breakthrough SW/W of Ivanovske. Which would also cut Ivanovske itself from Chasov yar.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 17:18 utc | 39

rk | Feb 6 2023 16:15 utc | 34

"Russia and US don't attack each other in Syria."

Syria is far away from the Russian border.

"And Russia will still get a new large border with nato in Finland, what's the difference if Lvov makes Duda horny?"

Finland may be showing signs of getting cold feet about its brash NATO-lusting proclamations. According to what I read they're now saying they want entry only simultaneously with Sweden, a scenario which seems much on the back burner.

But if they go ahead and Turkey drops its objections or NATO overrides Turkey and Finland's NATOization is imminent, it'll be a target for another Russian military-technical enterprise.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 17:44 utc | 40

The recent casualty estimates from Western sources in last few days I believe are nonsensical.... Ukrainian operational security is non existent..so an accurate formula for statistical analysis of social media uploads can give a true picture... coupled with ongoing literal kidnapped civilians on the streets and creative mobilization subpoenas.... foreign embassies collecting data on Ukrainian men within their borders and now registration of 16 year olds. These are are clear indications that the true casualty rates are staggering. German volkssturm ages at the End was 16-60 as a reference point. Most military tactics where gleamed from lessons learned after previous wars...but the new weapons systems usually make those tactics obsolete. Mass drilled formations with smoothbore muskets with very short range was blown away with rifled muskets...mass bayonet charges into belt fed water cooled machine guns made men go underground....tanks drove over the holes and trenches...blah blah blah....measures and countermeasures. This current use of drones tied into fire control at all levels has brought about hybrid operational tactics that are incremental but thoroughly effective. Single Ukrainian soldiers are being targeted by company support weapons...mortars and automatic grenade launchers....platoons are hit with TOS and mixed GRAD HE rockets. There is no way to survive that...hence the whole average lifespan of 4 hours for Ukrainian forces currently in Bahkmut. There is widespread information about drugs being issued to Frontline Ukrainian units...a type of methamphetamine...this has to be a factor contributing to the massive losses surely. A sort of double rum ration before troops go over the top. It is apperent by now that all the armour pouring into Europe.... Abrams in last few days into Riga and 60 Bradley's just leaving docks...on top of all the other equipment over the last few months are not donations but U.S Army formations building up for operations against Russia. I find it surprising they are not painted woodland temperate camouflage while being serviced for deployment at base depot. Seems to be some measure of great haste or they are expecting to swing south

Posted by: Joe | Feb 6 2023 17:55 utc | 41

Denmark which denuded itself of its military hardware and sent it to be destroyed in Ukraine is facing its biggest protests in decades, "Thousands of Danes Revolt Against Removal Of Christian Holiday To Subsidize War Spending":

The so-called Great Prayer Day is a Christian holiday that dates back to 1686 and falls on the fourth Friday after Easter.

Abolishing the holiday was first proposed in December in a bid to help raise tax revenues for higher military spending in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, which swept Denmark's stockpiles of weapons clean and emptied its defense coffers, as Copenhagen became one of Kiev's most committed allies in Europe.

However, the vast amount of aid sent to Ukraine scraped Denmark's resources bare and endangered its ambition to meet NATO's defense spending target of 2 percent of the GDP. According to the coalition government (uniting once-bitter rivals the Social Democrats and the Liberals), the DKK 4.5Bln ($654Mln) needed to meet the goal could be covered by the extra tax revenues raised by scrapping the holiday.

IMO, the donated war material ought to count toward the 2% levy as it is a NATO war.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 18:09 utc | 42

New tech, "New ‘Chameleon’ Camouflage Kit Being Developed in Russia, Says Body Armor Manufacturer", promises to be very important if it works as proposed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 18:14 utc | 43

Posted by: DR-Montreal | Feb 6 2023 15:08 utc | 17

Well said - thx!

Posted by: xLemming | Feb 6 2023 18:26 utc | 44

🇷🇺⚡️🇺🇦 About the formation of new formations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine - analysis of @rybar

It's no secret that now the Ukrainian authorities are intensively mobilizing citizens across the country, taking into the ranks of the armed forces all who are able to somehow hold a weapon.

And if earlier this process concerned only Ukrainians in the central or eastern part of Ukraine, and only partially to the inhabitants of the West, now the situation is different. In the Ternopil region alone, they want to call up about 60,000 people.

🔻What is it for?

Ukrainian formations are suffering huge losses in manpower in various directions. In Bakhmut and Soledar, the number of dead and wounded goes to tens of thousands of people (not in the last month, but since last summer). More than 20 different formations have already taken part in the battles in this sector.

By the beginning of spring, the authorities in Kyiv need to create combat-ready units consisting of two army corps to conduct a spring offensive campaign. The countries of the collective West agreed on a new package of military assistance: it would be strange if the sponsors did not demand practical results.

🔻What is happening now?

On the territory of various training grounds of Ukraine, 22 new formations are being actively formed as part of various units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two more are at the planning stage, and seven others are restoring combat capability due to losses incurred in the battles near Bakhmut.

The terms for the training of the newly created mechanized and assault brigades are very modest: as part of the joint commands, the personnel should be ready by March 1 of this year, and those included in 9 (47 and 67 ombr) and 10 (115, 116, 117 and 118 ombr, as well as 48 oabr) army corps - by March 31.

By spring, Ukraine is expected to receive a significant part of wheeled armored vehicles for mechanized brigades (for example, American and German infantry fighting vehicles "Bradley" and "Marder"). Part of the equipment is already in Poland.

The only formation whose readiness date has been postponed until December 1, 2023 is the 5th tank brigade, consisting of 9 AK. This date is due to the preparations for the transfer of modern battle tanks to NATO - only in the second half of the year will the basis of heavy armored vehicles be delivered.

🔻Perspectives

Taking into account the approximate strength of the brigade in the Armed Forces of Ukraine at 4,000, the recruited manpower reserve will exceed 100,000 people. At the moment, the pace and nature of forced mobilization indicate a serious shortage of new formations.

But even if the required number of people are recruited, it will be extremely problematic to train all mobilized people in the operation and use of high-tech weapons and military equipment in such a period of time - especially with an urgent need to close gaps in certain areas.

▪️At the same time, the task of the Ukrainian authorities is to prepare a shock fist that is superior in both manpower and technique, which will be used to attack in several directions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly used the tactic of flooding the front line with corpses, which helped create problems for the RF Armed Forces in the Kherson and Kharkov regions.

And for this purpose, an active conscription and mobilization of citizens of pre-retirement and retirement ages, including former employees of law enforcement agencies, began to be created in the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the NG of Ukraine.

Over the weekend, it was announced the creation of eight new assault brigades in the National Guard, the police and the State Border Service of Ukraine. These formations will be sent to the front line.

❗️While the "cannon fodder" will keep the defense and win time, the "elite" formations of the 9th and 10th army corps will undergo intensive training under the full control of NATO instructors.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 18:27 utc | 45

AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎@AZgeopolitics
🪖📄🇺🇦EVEN CHILDREN AREN’T SPARED: Ukrainian recruitment officers trying taking children away from mothers as woman defends her children from Kiev’s military commissioners,who came to take away her 16 and 17-year-old kids

Nuland investment in Maidan Coup must be returned with 🩸

Video in Tweet

Posted by: Down South | Feb 6 2023 18:31 utc | 46

The recent casualty estimates from Western sources in last few days I believe are nonsensical.... Ukrainian operational security is non existent..so an accurate formula for statistical analysis of social media uploads can give a true picture... coupled with ongoing literal kidnapped civilians on the streets and creative mobilization subpoenas.... foreign embassies collecting data on Ukrainian men within their borders and now registration of 16 year olds. These are are clear indications that the true casualty rates are staggering. German volkssturm ages at the End was 16-60 as a reference point.

Posted by: Joe | Feb 6 2023 17:55 utc | 41

There is a real question here regarding where all the Ukrainian men are.

By the most pessimistic estimates, population within the Kiev-controlled area was 35M early last year. Russia took control of another couple million, and at least 10M left the country. But that still leaves 20-23M inside.

Half of that is women, or maybe less than half because they banned men from leaving the country. So within those 20M+ there should be at least 5-6M males aged 18-60, once you subtract the old and the children.

Yes, you still need to run various critical systems, but the economy isn't really a concern anymore -- there simply isn't one -- which greatly expanded the pool of available manpower.

Let's assume 200K KIA and 500-600 WIA, there should still be at least another 2-3M conscriptable males, i.e. there should be no need to drag 16-year olds from their moms to sent them to be killed within hours of making it to the front.

Something does not quite compute -- what the hell is going on here?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:36 utc | 47

Finland may be showing signs of getting cold feet about its brash NATO-lusting proclamations. According to what I read they're now saying they want entry only simultaneously with Sweden, a scenario which seems much on the back burner.

But if they go ahead and Turkey drops its objections or NATO overrides Turkey and Finland's NATOization is imminent, it'll be a target for another Russian military-technical enterprise.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2023 17:44 utc | 40

There is really no going back for Finland.

They showed their true colors and made it clear they are enemies of Russia.

Note that, and that is the most depressing part, it wasn't just the WEF-spawned "leadership" that engaged in vicious Russophobia. Regular people on the streets did too, once they were told Russia is the enemy. It was a very sudden 180 as Finland has historically been the Western country with the closest ties and friendliest relationships with Russia. And yet...

The Russians will not forget that.

And that kind of leaves Finland no choice but to get under NATO's nuclear umbrella. If that is a real thing, of course.

Eighty years of efforts to build good relationships wasted just like that...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:40 utc | 48

Something does not quite compute -- what the hell is going on here?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:36 utc | 47

There used to be lots of healthy young Ukrainian singles and couples on the news here in Canada, thanking the government and expressing concern for their siblings and parents back home.

That messaging has died down and they are now sensibly are keeping a low profile. I doubt they will be sent back by our government, since they are here on 2-3 year temporary visas. Likely the plan is to have them go back when the conflict is over and re-populate and rebuild.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 6 2023 18:47 utc | 49

It depends on two things. How much land Duda wants and if he'll shoot missiles from there towards Russia. If he takes the historical part and doesn't shoot a single bullet it'll look bad as propaganda, nato will say they can do anything they want and Russia has to accept it, but otherwise I don't see any problems for SMO. Russia and US don't attack each other in Syria. And Russia will still get a new large border with nato in Finland, what's the difference if Lvov makes Duda horny? But proxies will continue to fight, with or without Poland's invasion. Today Norway announced they'll sponsor the war with $7bn. I see no problem for the entire natostan to find $100bn per year to keep the puppets fighting. Some day they'll stop large attacks, when locals will be mostly dead, and continue in small groups, simple terrorism.

Posted by: rk | Feb 6 2023 16:15 utc | 34

It is probably not acceptable for the Russians not to have Transcarpathia. Presumably they would gladly hand the Hungarian portion of it to Hungary, but that is actually just the western strip of Transcarpathia, the rest is not Hungarians. It isn't Ukrainian either -- it is inhabited by Rusyns, a separate Slavic ethnicity, who tend to be pro-Russian. Which is why if you look at those famous electoral maps, you will notice that Transcarpathia clusters with places like Dnepropetrovsk, not with hardcore Banderaland. It is also why they are sent to the front in such numbers -- ethnic cleansing through combat.

But the well being of the Rusyns isn't the important thing here, it is two other objectives:

1) The land connection with Hungary, and through Hungary to Serbia (which is now land locked and in a very difficult position).
2) Pushing the borders as far West as possible -- recall the December 2017 ultimatums and what those demanded.

So maybe there is a scenario in which Poland is handed Lvov, Ternopol and Ivano-Frankovsk (in order to weaken Poland, which such a move will do), but the latter two not in whole, i.e. Russia keeps the strip on the Romanian border and most of Transcarpathia. If you look at the roads and highways map, with some additional investment, that might work.

But there are serious doubts the Poles will do a proper denazaification of that cesspool

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:49 utc | 50

Given the Bradley is only 14cm shorter than the M3, I’m wondering how long it will be before it’s given the nickname, ‘coffin for seven brothers’, (assuming four dismounts).

Posted by: Milites | Feb 6 2023 18:51 utc | 51

On Ukr casualties, according to Colonel MacGregor, at a meeting of Zaluzhny with Millie, Zaluzhny told Millie that the irretrievable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the time of the meeting were 257,000 people (killed, missing, captured) (source: supressa.ru). If Millie was the source of that information, those numbers are as good as gold. Zaluzhny would not lie to Millie.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Feb 6 2023 19:03 utc | 52

Crooke's SCF essay is out, "Russia’s Strategic Aims – In Consequence to a Collapsing U.S. Empire":

This latter consideration [if and when of a big Russian offensive] must be set against the bigger picture: Russia primarily is engaged in the roll-back of U.S. hegemony, and pushing NATO out from the Asian ‘Heartland’. Russians have known for some time that the ‘Global Order system’ is not sustainable (post-WWII structures are already clearly visible in the rear-view mirror). And both Russia and China appreciate that there is no graceful – or short cut – way to undo such a large system.

The latter know that the West cannot be trusted and is destined to fall. For some years, Russia and China have been restructuring their economies and building their militaries – preparing for the inevitable collapse of the U.S. empire (whilst keeping fingers crossed that the ‘fall’ will not entail Apocalypse).

In practice, both Russia and China have been at pains to moderate that collapse, as far as possible. No one benefits from an uncontrolled implosion of the U.S. However, the U.S. is taking steps too far with its Ukraine project, and Russia is going to use this conflict to facilitate the end of the U.S. empire – there is really no other option. [My Emphasis]

The bolded text I've argued for going back to Russia's 2015 intervention in Syria. The following passage is key:

As Kelley Beaucar Vlahos in the American Conservative underlines [link at original], U.S. factions have been preparing Russia’s ‘burial’ for many years. Indeed, one of most damaging facts to emerge from Matt Taibbi’s ‘Twitter Files’ exposé has been: “how aggressive congressional lawmakers and federal agency officials were – in pushing a cynical narrative that brought the social media giant to heel whilst setting up the Russian bogeyman that haunts U.S. foreign policy and posturing in the Ukraine war today”.

That concocted story of Russia trying to destroy U.S. democracy brought public buy-in for a new war with Russia.

This existential fight can’t stop now: It might be argued that the Europeans and Americans are in a bubble of everything is optics and ‘all’ is PR immediacy and theatre – and we all need to play this game. They may well also be projecting the same zeitgeist onto the Russians and the Chinese, believing that they must think similarly: No values, no belief in anything, except whatever plays best on MSM.

Looked at from this perspective, it truly is a cultural clash – one reflecting the western incapacity for empathy. The West genuinely may think that Putin’s attention is focused above all on ratings – just as it is for Macron, Scholz and Biden – and that when hostilities end, it will be business as usual. They may genuinely not understand that this is not how the rest of the world thinks. [My Emphasis]

Contrast Putin's support level of over 80% to that of Biden's where now a majority of D-party people want him out and malgovernence is cited by Gallup as the #1 bipartisan problem facing US citizens, and that's just one small aspect. Crooke doesn't address the collapse of the Outlaw US Empire as much as he tells his readers that the EU is toast:

"NATO’s members were never strongly united behind Washington’s crusade to fatally weaken Russia. The EU (especially French and German) populace has no stomach for body bags. But the neo-cons correctly espied the European Achilles Heel: It was Poland, Lithuania, the other Baltic Republics and the Czech Republic. The U.S. neo-cons allied themselves with this radical Russophobic faction who want Russia dismembered and pacified, and to seize the levers of EU foreign policy away from France and Germany. The latter sat silent and impotent at Bucharest in 2008, when the NATO ‘door’ was thrown open to Georgia and Ukraine. Why did they not then express their reservations which they say they had at the time?"

But as we now know, French and German "leaders" were feckless and we must combine the Libyan rape into the equation where they were very ambitious about as well as with the "Arab Spring" and attempt to destroy Syria, and of course the continuing devastation of Afghanistan. Overall, Europe didn't do squat to deter anything the Empire wanted to do and instead opted to carry its sword despite the media's invocation of Obama "leading from behind." By now we ought to see Obama as the Neocon he was--and remains--from the outset, a CIA product to be sure.

Crooke opened with Russia and China as the forces aiming to end the Outlaw US Empire's global hegemony but ended lamenting Europe's prostration. Having bled Europe white, the Empire now looks to Japan as its next victim as the Neocons aren't yet finished. And as the balloon incident proved, there's plenty of Sinophobia in Congress ready to support whatever the Neocons try to do.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 19:11 utc | 53

There are reports of Ukrainian troops using chemical weapons at Soledar and Artemovsk. A Russian investigative committee is looking into the claim. Some Russian soldiers experienced nausea, vomiting, severe dizziness (supressa.ru).

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Feb 6 2023 19:18 utc | 54

Catilina | Feb 6 2023 15:20 utc | 21

The media circus that we are confronted with is already worse than anything any Roman citizen experienced at any time and so will be its eventual unraveling.

Posted by: bottle | Feb 6 2023 19:19 utc | 55

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 19:11 utc | 53

Thanks for the link and the excerpt. Obviously many here will agree with Crooke.

But whoa! You're saying that radical far-leftist non-US citizen former terrorist associate Obama was a CIA product?! /sarc

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 6 2023 19:22 utc | 56

Per the post above (#53 presently) with the link as follows that concludes:
Weak leadership has lifted the lid on the European Pandora’s box, for all the old ghost European animosities, jealousies and naked ambitions to waft out as dark vapours. Is there anyone who can close its lid now?
My guess is no, the lid cannot be closed, but open Pandora's box, then unexpected things occur.
The flies on the wall get to witness the elitist scratching at one another - oh well, old ideas die hard I reckon - I hope the flies on the wall know better, because if not, then likely the whole place will burn down.
~
What a pathetic sad state of affairs it all is, and tis obvious to one inwit. But, what can a fly on the wall do to change history?

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 19:25 utc | 57

"If the balloon hadn't existed, the US would have had to invent it"
.
The incident was also the subject of Russian TV's weekly news review on Sunday, which featured a report by Russia's China correspondent on the Chinese perspective.
.
Thomas Röper
- https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2023/wenn-es-den-ballon-nicht-gegeben-haette-haetten-die-usa-ihn-erfinden-muessen/?doing_wp_cron=1675711747.3079049587249755859375 -
.
Start of translation:
.

Relations between the US and China are escalating
The US didn't know what to do with the Chinese hot air balloon that has plowed through American skies for several days. Allegedly for scientific purposes. On the ground, they racked their brains: should they shoot him down or not?

Our correspondent reports from China about the new escalation.

And finally he was shot down. After nearly four days of hesitation and ridicule, a squadron of fighter jets, including an F-22, fired a single missile at the balloon over the South Carolina coast. A decision that Biden did not take lightly. He's dodged the questions all those days. Now he can proudly say he gave the order to the military to 'pop' the balloon on Wednesday, but was advised against it because he could allegedly come down in the wrong place. In the end it was decided it was time.

The debris is in the water, but the Pentagon has already said it has examined them all. And it's a Chinese spy. Americans insisted on this as soon as they saw the strange white dot in the sky over Montana: It looked like the moon, but there are no two moons side by side. And if he's right over ICBM silos and strategic bomber bases, it must be a spy from China who's been flying all over Alaska and half of Canada.

Official Beijing took half a day before replying that it was too early to make a fuss: "This is a civilian apparatus used for research purposes, primarily meteorological purposes. Under the influence of westerly winds and with limited self-piloting capabilities, the airship veered far from its intended course. The Chinese side regrets the accidental entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure.”

The Chinese explanation, it was immediately clear, would not satisfy the Americans. Washington is always on the lookout for any trace of Chinese espionage. Huawei's 5G networks. tik tok And now a whole weather balloon the size of three buses, which according to the Pentagon is clearly in the service of the Communist Party. The American press even labeled General Milly as a collaborator with China, giving him a Chinese military uniform and renaming him Mi Li. Because he advised Biden not to shoot the balloon for fear of damage in the crash. And while the rest of America watched helplessly as its warplanes circled the balloon, the US President's administration took a beating, both from its own side and from others.

"When balloons enter US airspace unhindered, it proves that the US air defense system is just a decoration and cannot be trusted," writes the Global Times.

Are the “eagles afraid of balloons”? That was already China's Consul General Zhang Meifang to the American "hawks". And on Chinese social networks, it was jokingly suggested that it was a congratulations to Americans on the Lantern Festival, when it is customary to let the lanterns rise into the sky. After all, this is today.

It is the final chord in the celebration of the Chinese New Year. And Blinken, about to travel to Beijing, chose not to fly because of the balloon, when it certainly could have celebrated more happily than Biden did in his Oval Office. Especially since the Chinese know a lot about partying. Fire flowers are lit here in Zhangjiakou. (Translator's note: This paragraph is difficult to understand without the accompanying images. Biden was shown performing a Chinese dance for him and the Chinese fire flowers discussed in the next paragraph.)

The ancient Chinese art of Da Shuhua forging is as beautiful as it is dangerous. After all, the metal that the men are splashing around is red-hot. Sino-US relations are just as red hot right now. The sparks are almost flying. The balloon for Washington appeared at just the right moment. A perfect excuse to cancel the trip and break off negotiations.

"Wang Yi stressed that China is a responsible country and has always strictly observed international law. We do not accept speculation and conjecture. In unexpected situations, both sides must remain resolute, communicate in a timely manner, avoid misjudgment and CIA chief Burns has just described China as the greatest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century: “This challenge differs from the challenge posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, which was only military and ideological. But the competition with China is unique in its scale, and it is really unfolding in almost every sphere, not only militarily and ideologically, but also economically and technologically - from cyberspace to outer space. It is global competition, perhaps even more intense than competition with the Soviet Union.”

The fact that the US is talking about competition and not war does not change the heart of the matter: Beijing is being cut off from cutting-edge technology and markets by any means necessary. Now Washington has forced the Netherlands and Japan to stop supplying China with equipment for making ultra-thin and high-performance chips, which could seriously hamper China's plans for its "semiconductor revolution." Beijing has vowed to respond ruthlessly: "The 'US nuclear weapon' is the technology, China's 'nuclear option' is the market. If you have a market but no technology, you can develop the technology; if you have a technology but no market, the development of the technology hits a dead end. Since the US has used 'nuclear weapons' against China, China must also use its own 'nuclear option' to counterattack.”

However, the US is also brandishing real nuclear weapons. And they are preparing to cover all of Asia with their nuclear shield. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said this openly on his trip to Tokyo and Seoul and classified Beijing, Pyongyang and Moscow as follows: "As long as there are nuclear weapons, especially since authoritarian forces in Russia have them and are investing heavily in their mobilization, as long as we see what China is doing by increasing the number of weapons and what North Korea is doing, nuclear deterrence is extremely important in these circumstances.”

Chinese newspapers have already dubbed it the "NATO crusade to the east," and Washington's recent attempt to strengthen military integration of allies has been likened to pawns.

“NATO should give serious thought to the role the Alliance has played in maintaining European security. NATO continues to expand its military ties with Asia-Pacific countries and publicizes the Chinese threat, which has alarmed a number of countries. I would like to emphasize that the Asia-Pacific region is not a place for geopolitical competition, bloc confrontation and Cold War thinking are not welcome here," said Mao Ning, spokesman for China's foreign ministry.

But the United States, as the leader of the alliance, continues to incite its neighbors against Beijing. Pentagon boss Austin followed Stoltenberg to Korea to strengthen resistance against Pyongyang. They even conducted Luftwaffe maneuvers over the Yellow Sea. The US is getting closer and closer to Taiwan. And they continue to advise the island's government. Now, retired Admiral Davidson, former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, has arrived in Taipei. This is the one who assured Beijing would launch a Taiwanese operation by 2027. But one could provoke China even earlier. US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman McCaul is gearing up to follow in Pelosi's footsteps in the spring. And her successor as Speaker of Parliament, Kevin McCarthy, too.

But Beijing has warned that simultaneously agreeing to cooperate and interfering in China's internal affairs - which includes the Taiwan issue - is impossible. And the talks with Blinken in Beijing would have yielded nothing anyway. If the balloon over Montana hadn't existed, Americans would have had to invent it.

end of translation

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 19:32 utc | 58

The EU and the UK as well are toast I reckon is the conclusion of a fly on the wall with a sane mind.
Oh well, sometimes things hurt.
The us of a is also on the pathway to big changes and if you doubt that, then I doubt you are a student of history.
Jefferson, smart fella he was when he kept his passions in check, as well as Madison - they knew about tyranny and they tried to setup a system immune, but evidently even the best ideas of mice and men eventually get compromised and then lessons occur.
~
Let the chips fall where they will - I know what side I am on and my bet is on the table.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 19:33 utc | 59

Budanov, the new minister of defense, is considered here to be more competent. But what does that mean? He recently confessed in an interview with a Ukrainian paper that the negotiations in Istanbul (end of March) were just to gain time. They wanted Russia to withdraw from the east of Kiyiv (Bucha) and so it did as a gesture. "To gain time" we have heard that now over and over from Merkel, from Hollande, from Poroshenko. With such an extremist minister and such Western partners the Russians see that negotiations do not have any sense. The only thing is to fight until what remains surrenders unconditionnally. Just like Japan did on the ship Missouri on 2 Sept. 1945

Posted by: Teraspol | Feb 6 2023 19:38 utc | 60

@unimperator, §6
So, as was evidently foreseeable, the Americans are setting up more proxies for sacrifice.
First it was the Chechens.
Now it´s the Ukrainians.
And in future it seems the Poles and sundry other east Europeans are being sent to the slaughter.
I thought countries like Czecho, Slovakia, Rumania, etc., had more sense.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 19:40 utc | 61

I have already seen mentions of it here before, but I think that Erwan Castel's TG channel and blog don't really get enough attention, possibly because they're in French.

His reports, both in written and spoken form, are highly interesting. One of the few that can speak 10 minutes without saying "ehm, hm, mmmh". As a former officer of the FAF, he also knows a few bits about the military situation.

I cannot access his blog because of either technical issues or "age verification" (wtf?)...

TG: t.me/ErwanKastel
Blog: alawata-rebellion.blogspot.com (no, I currently cannot access it unfortunately)

Posted by: Verdant | Feb 6 2023 19:42 utc | 62

There are reports of Ukrainian troops using chemical weapons at Soledar and Artemovsk. A Russian investigative committee is looking into the claim. Some Russian soldiers experienced nausea, vomiting, severe dizziness (supressa.ru).

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Feb 6 2023 19:18 utc | 54

This is actually at least the fourth or fifth time it has happened. Three of them in Bakhmut, one in Ugledar (very recent) and one on the Zaporozhye front way back in the summer.

And on one of the previous occasions it wasn't that benign, it was described as "certain death upon contact". That was around Bakhmut a month or so ago, at least one Russian solider died like that.

For some mysterious reason, the Kremlin has ignored those previous attacks.

I have the feeling that a nuke can wipe out a smaller Russian city, and as long as it isn't Moscow, St. Petersburg, or something really strategically vital, they will still pretended it is not happening...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 19:45 utc | 63

@jgalt, §20:
And Rumania hopes to get its Dniester border back with the cession of Bessarabia.
If the Rumanians were smart, they´d do a secret deal with the Russians now and cooperate with the Russian seizure of the Black Sea coast up to and including Odessa.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 19:48 utc | 64

@61 "I thought countries like Czecho, Slovakia, Rumania, etc., had more sense."

Not since they became part of the EU apparently. They were happy to join 'the West' with all it's benefit and now they want to show their gratitude.

Posted by: dh | Feb 6 2023 19:50 utc | 65

@mo3.1, §26:
Ha! Ha!
Perhaps Rumania could try that ruse too with Bessarabia - and Czecho/Slovakia with Transcarpathia?

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 19:55 utc | 66

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Feb 6 2023 19:03 utc |

I have only good thoughts for colonel McGregor...but he is tied into the U.S military deeply...he knows many things that he cannot make public without being branded a traitor. He speaks of only 50,000 fighting echelon U.S troops in Europe....that's utter bullshit....he passed on a figure given by the Ukrainian Chief of staff to Miley....it's abit more believable than the 8000 dead figure given a few months by Ukraine officially....but still inaccurate given the current reality on the ground..in my opinion. And yes...with the American realtime surveillance....the massing of tank Armies is impossible to hide at the moment with no actions being taken to blind that capability so the slow but methodical advance on a wide front may be the offensive in another form that is expected... remember..slow is smooth...smooth is fast

Posted by: Joe | Feb 6 2023 20:01 utc | 67

As reported at The Saker's, "Ukrainian refugees are becoming a burden to the Baltic states", this bit of info I found curious to say the least:

"During the meeting, experts from the Baltic countries discussed the problem of Ukrainian refugees and their impact on the lives of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

"The conference was held in Russian. It is curious that even 32 years after the collapse of the USSR, the inhabitants of the Baltic countries prefer Russian rather than English in interstate communication." [My Emphasis]

One question I've had is answered below:

"One of the reasons for holding the conference was the question of the economic feasibility of accepting refugees. After all, the governments of the Baltic countries allocate huge funds to support them (Lithuania – 81 million euros, Latvia – 72 million euros, Estonia – 58 million euros). At the same time, the states are in a severe economic crisis (increase in unemployment, closure of enterprises, growth in housing and communal services tariffs and prices for energy sources). Below the poverty line is more than 25% of the population. What is this if not disregard for the interests of it`s own people for the sake of the political situation and under pressure from the EU."

It's possible that the Baltics will become the new Ukraine based on the observations I read in the report.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 20:09 utc | 68

@shadowbanned, §50:
There´s little doubt that a majority of Rusyns would prefer independence from the Ukraine and, if they joined any other country, it would be a federation with Czecho and Slovakia because, as Transcarpathia, they enjoyed full autonomy in Czechoslovakia between WW1 and WW2.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 20:13 utc | 69

@Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 6 2023 18:36 utc | 47

The pre-2022 Ukrainian emigration was already skewed toward healthy young men and women. A lot of extra healthy young men got out of Ukraine in 2022 before they started stopping them at the border and through smuggling/bribery etc. In addition, post-1990 the Ukrainian birth rate fell sharply (current rate is 1.16 way below replacement rate of 2.2, it really crashed in the 1990s reflected in the low numbers of 20-30 year olds), so the age distribution skews old with much less 15-40 year olds than there otherwise would be. In the link below is the "make believe" age distribution based on Ukrainian statistics, even that looks pretty awful. Then deduct millions of 20-30 years leaving for jobs abroad, refugees, in Russian territories.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

The population of the four oblasts that are now part of Russia is approx. 10 million, we can probably assume that 60-80% of the population is either in Russia as refugees or within Russia-controlled areas - lets say 7 million. Assume 6 million refugees at least and that makes 13 million reduction from 2021 levels - which at best were 35 million, therefore 22 million. But that is heavily skewed toward old people.

@Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 6 2023 18:47 utc | 49

There will be a limit beyond which military age male refugees will not be welcomed anymore, I think in the European countries earlier than Canada - especially if Ukrainian young men keep beating up the locals. As even Canada is sending more and more money and arms, plus "advisers" and sheep-dipped regulars (made to look like mercenaries) there will be more and more questions about all those able-bodied Ukrainians in our country. There will be no way that official NATO boots on the ground can be put in Ukraine without all those Ukrainian male refugees being sent to the front to die. Not even Freeland can resist that.

If I were a young adult male I would be watching what happens to those able-bodied Ukrainian men in my country. If they start to be forcibly sent back to Ukraine to fight, then I should assume that I may be next or some form of military service will be re-instituted. If I were in the army I would look to retire and go abroad so that I could not be treated as a reservist. No reason for Canadians to be fighting Russians in Ukraine. Not my problem though as I will 60 years old this year.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:14 utc | 70

RK (34): Russia and the U.S. aren't currently fighting in Syria. But after Ukraine falls, watch out. Already, Syria and Russia and Turkey are in talks to end the conflict from their end. The U.S. will then be isolated in Syria and the Russians will pour their battle-hardened military into Syria and the U.S. will be defenseless. I don't see U.S. troops remaining in Syria past 2025--at the latest.

Posted by: FHTEX | Feb 6 2023 20:16 utc | 71

If one considers all the funds and energy "invested" poorly by the leaders no longer vested in my humble opinion to shoot down a balloon harmless versus the funds it would take to help refugees fleeing a conflict not of their choice, then you must be able to understand the absurdity of current times and then accordingly must realize - this cannot last.
~
Any sane mind, inwit to the times, concludes that the EU and the UK are TOAST. I've been preaching this in a way, so I am biased, but seems to me the evidence is in and how much longer can the ridiculousness continue until a mistake is made, inadvertent or not, that spells the end of the human experiment on planet earth?
~
So, as an effing fly on the wall, I sure hope some fools get a clue, and if you want my advice, then better to align with Russia than liars proven.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 20:22 utc | 72

Military Summary had some additional info on Bakhmut. It's quite logical that UAF can't simply pack up and leave. They are rotating the better trained forces in Bakhmut out and newly conscripted terrodefense inside Bakhmut. Also, UAF soldiers have posted videos online of assembling and using chemical weapons near Bakhmut.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2023 20:23 utc | 73

@karlof1, §53
This idea of using Europeans as proxies was kicked off by Voldemort, aka Tony Blair (or ) of the UK, in Iraq.
His snivelling, craven globalism led to the EU project as a junior globalist puppet to the American NeoCons.
Unfortunately for the Americans, the European populace are getting cold feet.
That´s why the Americans are now putting pressure on Japan to be similar proxy cannon-fodder for the NeoCons against China.
And there is similarly no appetite in American-occupied Asia, neither in Japan nor Korea nor the Philippines.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 20:27 utc | 74

Slavyangrad Telegram Channel comments on WarTears estimate of Ukie losses...

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32323

Ukrainian casualties range from 0.96 million to 1.8 million, according to Mossad, US Command, Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam), New York Times (@nytimes)

This is just a "half-joking" exercise, but we are hoping to soon deliver a proper detailed analysis and explanation on why such methodology should not be used. We want to seriously explain why such methods are flawed and what exactly their significant shortcomings are.

Tremendous Losses!

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 6 2023 20:29 utc | 75

@Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 20:09 utc | 68

And the leaders of the Baltic States just can't stop escalating against Russia, wanting Russia's funds stolen and given to Ukraine, threatening to close water access for Russia to the Baltic, destroying Soviet-era statues, now it seems training terrorist groups to attack Belarus.

About 5% of Lithuanians are ethnic Russians, 25% of Latvia, and and 25% of Estonia. Given the ethnic-Russian geographic distribution, perhaps the "Narva People's Republic", and the "Daugavpils People's Republic". As Russia has a demographic issue I am surprised that they have not offered incentives to ethnic Russians to move to Russia, further depopulating the Baltic States. Russia has been working to reduce its dependence on the Baltic States for trade (e.g. shipping of goods) and Lithuania cut itself off from China over Taiwan. All three Baltic States removed themselves from the Eastern European 16+1 agreement with respect to trade with China.

So yes, a future of ongoing depopulation, economic decline and fascist Russia-hating leaders owned by NATO/EU, together with perhaps ethic Russian breakaway republics. It looks more and more like the Western "genius" elites think that they can use the Baltics as an increasing pressure point against Belarus/Russia, especially as Ukraine slowly collapses in the face of Russian power.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:35 utc | 76

In response to Dr. George W Oprisko
So, lets just round the numbers and say 1 million folks have been harmed truly by this conflict caused by specific individuals in the State Department, balloon killers they are, one and all and makes one ponder - do they think they have the "right" to do this?
If so, I refute them with fury.
This madness needs to come to a swift conclusion and Odessa beckons and she will be heard - one way or the other.
Some tools are double edged and sometimes the ones who wield the tools have no idea what they have in their hands.....
they need to be disarmed because they are blinking dimwit idiots - as evidenced by a balloon got shot down for no good reason.
~
I'm going to get my own double now, and no bartender needed because I got my own supply and I'm ready.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 20:36 utc | 77

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 20:09 utc | 68

Not related to the content of your post, but I was under the impression that The Saker was going to go dark or had already. From your link it seems like they're still going. Do you know what the story is on that?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 6 2023 20:39 utc | 78

Seems like the mass recruitment is simply to hold the line while the West prepares the much vaunted blitzkrieg.

I very much doubt the ad hoc tank stories, the 4 weeks training story sounds ludicrous.

More likely a mass of Ukrainians have been preparing for months alongside a massive number of Western Mercs.

Posted by: Johnycomelately | Feb 6 2023 20:40 utc | 79

In response to #79 above....maybe not for long but whatever...
~
the more likely outcome is the operation is coming to a swift conclusion and if it is not evident to you yet, let me be the first to tell you. Russia has prevailed and for good reason. I for one would like to be able to watch that video again about the place where they honored their WWII heroes, many of whom gave their lives for the motherland. So, when this link comes back again versus being "unavailable" I will know that the losers have realized how wrong they have been and how wrong they are presently.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/the-main-cathedral-of-the-russian-armed-forces/
Not kidding around.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 20:49 utc | 80

Richard Medhurst is interviewing Scott Ritter live as I type this at 12:50PM Pacific Standard Time on his Youtube channel. Tune in or watch it later after it ends.

ULTIMATE Ukraine War Update: Scott Ritter and Richard Medhurst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Vh4toMKI0E

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 6 2023 20:51 utc | 81

Ukraine brings Poland to utter ruin 18%
.
“We get angry because we count every cent.” With these words, the Poles comment on the record price increase that they see in shops every day. Now these shops are closing themselves, and the same is threatening Polish farms. People become poor and start saving for the most ordinary things. And here, it seems, Ukraine?

Polish Radio Zet shared the results of a study by international analysis company Uce Research. It turned out that the criminal situation in the country has significantly deteriorated. In just ten months of the past year, the number of thefts in shops in Poland increased by about 30%. The reasons for the increase in crime were economic instability and rising prices.

Expect the worst

"Poles are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet due to inflation, which has now reached almost 18%... Now not every resident of Poland can afford to meet even their basic needs," says Uce Research.

Journalist Katarzyna Witwicka-Jurek reports: “The topic of shoplifting has been much discussed in recent weeks. Many, seeing this as a worsening social problem, could argue for harsher penalties for such acts. More and more Poles understand that honest consumers actually pay for shoplifting. Shops pass their losses on to customers and raise prices accordingly.”

At the same time, according to the journalist, harsher punishments will not seriously help the trouble, since many people steal from banal hunger and poverty. "The maximum that can be achieved is to further aggravate the social situation of people who commit theft," says Katarzyna Witwicka-Jurek.
.
https://vz.ru/world/2023/2/6/1197089.html

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 20:52 utc | 82

The Saker updates how people can contact him once the blog shuts down.

How can we stay in touch? (a repeat and summary)
https://thesaker.is/how-can-we-stay-in-touch-a-repeat-and-summary/

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 6 2023 20:55 utc | 83

@Posted by: Johnycomelately | Feb 6 2023 20:40 utc | 79

From the processes kicking into place in European countries to force young men to receive their call up summons, more likely that group will be trained in Europe for the next phase of the conflict to keep Ukrainian fighting to the last Ukrainian - perhaps to defend the Dneiper line.

With the scale of losses, demographics, emigration and moves of population to Russia/Russian oblasts I don't see any masses of Ukrainians currently being secretly trained in Europe. More like a few 10,000s that are desperately being fed in to hold the line, plus mercenaries and "sheep-dips" - although the latter may get harder to recruit given the open source material on the huge losses and brutal fighting conditions. Very different from fighting sheep herders. Ukraine has already had to accept the inability to mount any offensive given losses and Russian pressure.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:55 utc | 84

@ John Marks

Hmm. I knew some Rusyns once. They didn’t care for the Slovaks at all, who tended to treat them like Untermenschen.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 6 2023 21:05 utc | 85

Why not I think to myself, but I will tell you this. That video presently "unavailable" I watched it when it was available, and a friend of mine he saved it and I'm sure I could find it again because it was most impressive. But I think it ought be available, and so I reckon I will wait to watch it again, but it is out there and it is known and really.....Odessa, Odesa, the place of it, on the Black Sea, a serious place where serious things occur, it beckons for better times.
~
So, how much harm must be caused until the ones devoted to trickery to achieve their objectives realize they are NOT as smart as they think they are? Well, my chips are on the table, I am all in, my bet is placed and now all that we are waiting for is resolution. I bet against those who think trickery is something they can use to their advantage and just like a nuclear weapon I know, either way I will win this bet, or at a minimum I won't lose it.
~
So think about it - if you think you win by trickery, then eventually you must know somebody smarter than you will trick you and you will lose permanently, and frankly, the EU and the UK are toast and us of a is in for some big changes, but who knows what history has to offer....so, if we don't kill ourselves, then maybe something better is on the horizon?
~
Place your bets.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 6 2023 21:09 utc | 86

Joe | Feb 6 2023 20:01 utc | 67

The reason I like the 257,000 total casualty figure is because it came from Zaluzhny through Milley. Zaluzhny is one of the few people who know the real number, and he wouldn't lie to Milley, who is Zaluzhny's ultimate boss. How it got from Milley to MacGregor is not clear, but it wouldn't surprise if Milley intentionally leaked it. Milley strongly favors a negotiated settlement. When a recent round of aid to Ukraine was released, Milley clearly was not in favor. His comment was, "Why throw another 100,000 into the abyss?" So Milley's releasing the number was his way of stating what a waste of life this war is. And he released the number to someone he knew would make it public -- MacGregor.

I've seen other estimates, Mossad has one for example, ISW too. But those are just estimates. Zaluzhny's number is the only number based on the actual count. I could see Zaluzhny somewhat lowballing the number to Milley, but not overstating it. So the number possibly could be somewhat higher than 257,000.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Feb 6 2023 21:12 utc | 87

Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadyrov:

“Warsaw, in the framework of supporting Ukraine, managed to exhaust its own military resources, and now it is confused: what if, after the successful completion of the NMD, Russia begins to demilitarize the next country? After Ukraine, Poland is on the map! I will not hide that I personally have such an intention, and I have stated more than once that the fight against Satanism must continue throughout Europe, and especially in Poland. That's how the Poles made it happen."

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 6 2023 21:14 utc | 88

Tom_Q_Collins @78--

See here.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 21:16 utc | 89

There are reports on telegram channels...I cannot translate them to verify...but women will start to called up next mobilization...there was reports of 50,000 women already at the front...even if employed as medics...that is a dangerous occupation because artillery is non discriminatory. Here again adding to the narrative that the situation on ground is desperate and I suspect NATO will slowly adjust the casualty figures to justify intervention with all that propositioned equipment

Posted by: Joe | Feb 6 2023 21:26 utc | 90

Roger @76--

Russia has provided and continues to provide incentives, but people often "marry" where they live and find it hard to "divorce". If you compare current population stats with those for 1990, you'll see a big reduction in ethnic Russians in the Baltics. Many moved to Kaliningrad because the weather's similar. As far as I know, Russia continues to pay pensions to those Soviet Russians remaining in the Baltics, but I don't know the currency used.

Not that it matters to the West, but I seem to recall there's some rule saying refugees can't be forcibly relocated to their initial nation against their will, which is why their initial entry is made as hard as possible.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2023 21:28 utc | 91

Posted by: Roger | Feb 6 2023 20:55 utc | 84

I agree. There is no "massive Ukrainian army armed with Western weapons" hiding somewhere, in country or out of country. If there were, it would have been leaked by now, certainly if it were in Europe, less so in Ukraine (but not from the Russians.)

Western reports repeatedly talk about a few thousand Ukrainian soldiers here, a few there, being training in whatever. That's it. That's all they have. If there were any more, we'd know it. The West can't physically train more than that, that's obvious.

The rest of them are conscripts in country, zero training, zero combat experience, and as Scott Ritter is talking about on Medhurst right now as I type this, the latter is critical for performance. If you don't have muscle memory training on how to use your hardware in combat, you're dead in an hour. Like the Ukrainian soldier who said in an interview recently that the life span of a conscript in combat is four hours (exaggerated, of course, but definitely can be counted in days.) This is accelerated in the case of operating complex hardware like a tank or mobile artillery in combat.

Ritter is also saying that all the US Special Forces guys, the big SEALs, Delta Force, etc. wouldn't survive on the Ukrainian battlefield, either. So how does Ukrainian conscripts survive, armed with western weapons they can't use effectively?

This concept of a "hidden Ukrainian army preparing for a spring or summer offensive" is total bullshit. The best they can do is summon up ten, twenty, thirty thousand troops with a battalion of tanks and artillery and launch local tactical attacks, not "offensives" - Kherson and Kharkiv weren't even "offensives" in the classic term. Compare that with Russia's new three hundred thousand trained regular army, plus the original Russian forces of 150-200,000, plus the rumors of yet another 200,000 Russian regular army to be mobilized. Then add in the massive Russian fortifications the New York Times reported on with actual pictures.

Any Ukrainian "offensive", regardless of numbers and western weapons, will die on the battlefield in less than a week.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 6 2023 21:30 utc | 92

Journalist: “Who will man all those tanks”
Markus Reisner: “I take off my uniform, sign a contract and go to Ukraine. I’m no longer an Austrian soldier.”
He explains how NATO is sending troops to Ukraine.
-> We all knew that these “volunteers” are not really “volunteers” anyway
Markus is a colonel and Head of Research and Development Department of the Austrian Theresian Military Academy. He speaks the quiet part out loud.

Posted by: hankster | Feb 6 2023 21:32 utc | 93

Medhurst is closing out his interview with Ritter as I type this. But he's continuing his usual live broadcast, so it may be a couple hours before it's available for download. He's talking about the EU ban on Russian oil currently.

He's discussing this article:
Sanctions on Russian crude oil have ‘failed completely,’ oil analyst says
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/sanctions-on-russian-crude-oil-have-failed-completely-oil-analyst-says.html

The link again:
Richard Medhurst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Vh4toMKI0E

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 6 2023 21:35 utc | 94

The USA cannot fight a one-front war on another continent, Eurasia, much less a two-front war on the same continent, Eurasia, or on any combination of other continents. China and Portugal reside on the same continent. India, Iran, and Russia also reside on that continent. The USA is an island nation. What keeps others out — Oceans — keeps us in.

Discussion by self-appointed US officials of fighting a two-front war — Russia across the Atlantic Ocean and China across the Pacific Ocean — is their planning to kill off as many Americans, Russians, and Chinese as they can — especially the most competent ones, their best military Officers and NCOs — as soon as they can.

Surging psychotropic drugs, so-called vaccines, and foreign nationals into The USA and EU isn’t working quickly enough to reduce human populations overall by 80%. Financial, real estate, and power speculators in New York, London, Langley, and Washington D.C. are impatient. They have waited long enough to seize for their enjoyment dominion (political power), wealth (land, banks, women), and boys.

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Feb 6 2023 21:41 utc | 95

>I>Journalist: “Who will man all those tanks”
Markus Reisner: “I take off my uniform, sign a contract and go to Ukraine. I’m no longer an Austrian soldier.”
He explains how NATO is sending troops to Ukraine.
-> We all knew that these “volunteers” are not really “volunteers” anyway
Markus is a colonel and Head of Research and Development Department of the Austrian Theresian Military Academy. He speaks the quiet part out loud.

Posted by: hankster | Feb 6 2023 21:32 utc | 93

It became clear in his latest videos for the Austrian army with regard to the conflict, that his neutrality has gone. It increasingly became an anti-Russian tirade, focussing on Russian faults and losses, but staying well clear of any Ukrainian setbacks and shortfalls.

Maybe he is better of manning one of these ageing tanks and facing the T80s, 90s, and Terminators head on - if his tank ever comes close enough.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Feb 6 2023 21:48 utc | 96

Turkish media have published Israeli Mossad Intel data about the UAF number of KIA and the loss of material

Source: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27461/4717086/

Thousands of dead NATO mercenaries and soldiers: Israeli intelligence data on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine leaked
Israeli intelligence Mossad announced the loss of the Armed Forces of 157,000 people killed

At the end of November, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen , said that the military losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were over 100 thousand people. This message horrified the Ukrainians and caused a scandal in Kyiv. Brussels had to urgently edit the video with the message of Madame der Leyen, removing data on Ukrainian losses from it.

But, apparently, the situation for Kyiv is even worse. On February 3, former adviser to the head of the Pentagon and retired US Army Colonel Douglas McGregor announced new figures in a video interview, saying literally the following: “General Zaluzhny (commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. - Ed.) met with Secretary of Defense (USA. - Ed.) Lloyd Austin and with General Milli, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. According to sources, he secretly told them that Ukraine lost 257 thousand people ... "This is the number of irretrievable losses of Ukraine (killed, missing and taken prisoner).

And the Turkish edition of Hurseda Haber, referring to Israeli intelligence data, published the following loss figures - both people and equipment.

The total strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 734,000 soldiers (plus 100,000 reservists), including NATO troops (who are fighting behind the scenes on the territory of Ukraine) and foreign mercenaries.

The losses are:

157,000 dead.

Wounded 234,000.

17 230 prisoners.

Deceased NATO military instructors (US and UK) 234.

Dead NATO soldiers (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, etc.) 2,458.

Dead mercenaries 5 360.

Even more interesting here is that the figures of the destroyed military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are given by the Turkish publication (recall - with reference to Israeli intelligence), are comparable to Russian official data. And in some positions they even exceed them! However, compare yourself:

https://s09.stc.yc.kpcdn.net/share/i/4/2521080/wr-750.webp

Leaked Israeli intelligence data on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Photo: Dmitry ORLOV

Data from the Turkish press (Israeli intelligence) and data from the Russian Ministry of Defense

Aircraft shot down: 302 and 382

Drones shot down: 2,750 and 3,023

Destroyed anti-aircraft missile systems: 497 and 403

Tanks and armored vehicles destroyed: 6,320 and 7,750

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Feb 6 2023 21:50 utc | 97

According to Brian at "the new atlas", Germany is sending 12 Leo 2 and 88 leo 1 tanks. It is no coincidence that this is in our face NAZI numbers:

1488 is a combination of two popular white supremacist numeric symbols. The first symbol is 14, which is shorthand for the "14 Words" slogan: "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children." The second is 88, which stands for "Heil Hitler" (H being the 8th letter of the alphabet). Together, the numbers form a general endorsement of white supremacy and its beliefs.

https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/1488

Posted by: Krollchem | Feb 6 2023 22:09 utc | 98

correction 14 Leo 2 tanks. Sorry

Posted by: Krollchem | Feb 6 2023 22:10 utc | 99

@Roger, §76:
Yes. indeed.
Russia could really hurt both Estonia and Latvia by inviting/encouraging ethnic Russians to return. This would help Russia´s demographic and seriously reduce the tax base of both Estonia and Latvia. Those minnows should look at their own economies, rapidly shrinking down a black hole.
Easy meat, I suppose for the NeoCon corporations - but very thin pickings.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 6 2023 22:14 utc | 100