In an extensive interview Bennett speaks about the failed negotiations in Istanbul between Ukraine and Russia.
“According to his memory ,positions among Western leaders were divided on further steps. ‘You see, each leader has his own approach. You can divide the leaders into those who stick to the line: ‘We have to turn Putin down.'” <... > And those who say, “C’mon, we’re all losers in this war.” Boris Johnson advocated more radical measures, and Macron and Scholz were more pragmatic, shall we say. Biden supported both approaches,” Bennett recalled.
“Biden supported both approaches,” I understand. Apparently, the reality of the US defeat in their Proxy War is slowly approaching by little steps. Bennett can fill that role as a former, as can Johnson, whose radical approach might now be that of the loser. Months might still pass.
Posted by: b | Feb 5 2023 15:18 utc | 2
“Russia:
(…)
18,480 dead
44,500 Injured
323 Captive
Ukriane:
(…)
157,000 Dead
234,000 injured
17,230 Captive”
it seems difficult to be able to contradict this information. It would be interesting to see if the NYT and other media outlets pick them up.

Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 15:39 utc | 3

“Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: According to information confirmed by several sources, Kiev intends to carry out a large-scale provocation to accuse Russia of allegedly committing “war crimes.”
According to reports, Kiev plans to carry out a controlled bombing of the buildings of several medical institutions in Kramatorsk in order to accuse the Russian Federation of an allegedly deliberate strike on civilian objects. It is known that, accompanied by SBU officers, foreign journalists have already arrived in Kramatorsk to cover the planned provocation.”
I remember that a Bucha in Kramatorsk was planned since last year. We laughed that the diversity hire in CIA only uses cities that an American could pronounce or relate to an English word. No Dnipropetrovsk or Novosyolovskoye on CNN, Americans can’t process that .

Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 15:43 utc | 5

I have been arguing that the US and Russia are in fact negotiating a settlement on the ground. Here is another indicator. It features a break in the elites thinking on the war and how devistating it could be for the US.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2023/02/04/ukraine-is-sinking-are-western-elites-bailing-out/

Posted by: JimG | Feb 5 2023 15:47 utc | 7

it seems difficult to be able to contradict this information.
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 15:39 utc | 5
Very easy. At only 157k dead there is no need to hunt men on the streets and demand that EU returns male refugees to Ukr and you won’t find soldiers over 50.
At close to 300k dead and around same number wounded, such actions are perfectly explained.
The Russian losses on tanks, helicopters and other weapons seem to be too high. Ukr published the same photos mirrored to count as multiple events. At 56 helicopters and 23 planes they don’t need to mirror or use different angles for the same object. Many times they took photos of their own destroyed tanks.

Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 9

@CitizenSmith | Feb 5 2023 15:25 utc | 3 …troll vomits…old post copy/paste
Very much so. You encouraged me to repost something from the previous thread (#228 of 232), though. It is about trolls and their dangerous psyops.

Posted by: OttoE | Feb 5 2023 15:55 utc | 11

@Roadblock | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 12
The answer is the RF naval base of Sevastopol.
No way that it could become a naval base of NATO.

Posted by: scc | Feb 5 2023 15:57 utc | 13

“The more long-range weapons the West supplies to the Kyiv regime, the further it will need to be moved away from Russian territories, the Russian Armed Forces are pushing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a safe distance, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
According to Lavrov, the Russian Armed Forces are already trying to move the artillery of the Ukrainian armed forces to a distance that does not pose a threat to Russian territories. The minister stressed that the more long-range weapons are supplied to the Kyiv regime, the further they will need to be moved away from the territories that are part of Russia, RIA Novosti reports.
And yet our government really lives on another planet, including Minister Lavrov. On their planet, the front has long been moved away from Avdiivka and Maryinka, located in the suburbs of Donetsk. The shelling of Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk regions, Crimea has long been forgotten. The front passes somewhere in the region of Lvov.
And on our planet, shelling of Russian territories is intensifying more and more. And more and more moving east. The matter has already reached the installation of air defense systems on the roofs of administrative buildings in Moscow.
But seriously, such statements discredit the Russian government and the country as a whole. Our “sworn partners” are well aware of the real situation at the front and know that there is no real advance of the Russian group in Ukraine. With the exception of small tactical successes in a couple of directions, consisting in advancing several kilometers, or even several hundred meters.
And this gives our enemies reason to conclude that the Russian army has run out of steam and is no longer capable of strategic success. And if so, then it is necessary to increase the flow of assistance to Ukraine and provide it with more and more modern and more long-range weapons. To hasten the defeat of Russia. And in fact, Minister Lavrov, with his statements far from reality, is pushing them to this.” https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/721

Posted by: Kareem | Feb 5 2023 16:03 utc | 15

234 Dead – NATO military trainers (US and UK)
2,458 Dead – NATO soldiers (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, …)
5,360 Dead – Mercenaries
suggests (234+2,458+5,360) * 20? that as many as 150,000 NATOland Military Are fighting in country.
Barflies is this possible ?

Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 16:16 utc | 17

@Roadblock | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 12
Seriously?
OK, following the US orchestrated violent coup in Kiev that replaced the democratically elected president with hand picked puppets those areas of Ukraine that had voted overwhelmingly for the deposed president began to protest against the coup and the anti-Russian policies the new government advocated. Crimea, which has always had a majority ethnic Russian population and had been trying to rejoin Russia since 1991, voted to separate from Ukraine. Russia, which had about 35k soldiers stationed in Crimea to support their naval base in Sevastopol (by agreement with Ukraine under the lease agreement), used their forces to politely request that the Ukrainian armed forces stationed in Crimea either surrender or join the Russian armed forces which they did. The Crimean population then voted overwhelmingly to join Russia, a decision with was subsequently ratified and approved by the Russian Duma. Meanwhile, protests against the coup in the eastern regions continued (in Kharkov, Odessa, Mariupol, and Donetsk. The coup government decided to violently suppress all protests which they proceeded to do, first using radical right wing proxy forces and their security forces and later the Ukrainian military. They designated the protesters in Donetsk and Lughansk who were making plans to hold a referendum as terrorists and began attacking them with army troops and the airforce. Those two oblasts quickly organized resistance forces to fight back. These efforts to resist were never sanctioned by Russia, nor were they supported by the Russian armed forces, although there was much regional sympathy for them and they received some unofficial support and volunteers from Russia.
The coup government intended to kick the Russians out of Sevastopol by voiding the lease agreement, outlaw the use of the Russian language for official business and education, and remove it’s status as co-equal with the Ukrainian language. The first action was unacceptable to Russia and was opposed by the local population in Crimea. The second, and many additional anti-Russian policies, were unacceptable to the majority population in most of eastern Ukraine. They were denied effective representation in government in Kiev and took up arms to protect their interests. The fighting which erupted in 2014 was a civil war and not due to ‘Russia stirring the pot’.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 5 2023 16:30 utc | 19

Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 9
Mossad is definitely pro-western source. Now that’s an “optimistic” estimate for the west, think how bad situation is in reality for Ukraine. The only explanation Zelensky needs to hunt refugees in UK and other countries is the dead are several hundred thousands. And more importantly, the burn rate is very high.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 16:38 utc | 21

Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 16:16 utc | 17
I very much doubt that official German NATO soldiers are fighting alongside various partners in Ukraine. It doesn’t make any sense at all.
Consider only the history of communication processes of radical war supporters in Lithuania, Poland and the Ukraine – how they acted towards Berlin and how they continue to act. That hurts Berlin and Scholz personally enormously. If German soldiers were fighting in Ukraine alongside Ukraine, that wouldn’t happen. Scholz would not allow himself to be harmed in several ways in this way. In addition, it is not in the interest of Berlin at all.
On the contrary, publicity on this topic (or even facts – that are missing) could undoubtedly herald the end of the chancellor. This connection is perhaps what is interesting about the mention of german participation coming from this source.
Mercenaries from all countries may be there, but I would limit the participation of official troops in the theater to very few countries.

Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 16:50 utc | 23

Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 16:50 utc | 23
It was discussed earlier last year. Nato uses a scheme where they give leave, or decommission soldiers from a nations military ranks, and sends them to Ukraine to enlist in UAF. Ukraine has a policy in place where they also offer to hand passports for mercenaries and those that enlist. Apparently, the soldier on leave, serving in Ukraine still gets the service time in UAF counted toward their own service record.
Also recall seeing in Bulgaria or Romania that they have advertisements for regular soldiers that for a very good pay above their normal pay, they can enlist into UAF. So I’m going on a limb here, but Nato soldiers are there en-masse.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 16:54 utc | 25

Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 16:16 utc | 17
234 Dead – NATO military trainers (US and UK)
2,458 Dead – NATO soldiers (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, …)
5,360 Dead – Mercenaries
This is possible but would be challenging to keep quiet about western casualties in the age of social media – MSM can be told to keep silent e.g. D notice in UK but social media is hard to silence – UK lost 183 soldiers in Iraq to give a scale, Poland lost 23 – hard to hide these numbers
Numbers for Russia and Allies seem credible and are consistent with BBC & Meduza (Russian oppositionist) Social media / funeral notice based survey
Ukraine Casualties – equipment loss numbers fit with RU clobber List – manpower losses look conservative, but fair
A sad waste of humanity

Posted by: Aslangeo | Feb 5 2023 17:01 utc | 27

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 16:54 utc | 25
I know the discussion. That’s an interesting mechanism that I don’t question, any more than the participation of Nato troops. However, that would be a huge scandal in Germany, even among those sections of the population who would have supported the delivery of German tanks. It would be an expression of participation in the war and the Netflix dreamers would wake up. The chancellor’s head would roll, the coalition might be broken up and NATO membership would suddenly be the topic of the day in Germany. So it wouldn’t be the worst if it were real and on topic, but why would Berlin take that risk if it’s not in Berlin’s interest?

Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 17:05 utc | 29

Why a factor of 20 for NATOland troops rather than 5 ?
Because ( just a crude guesstimate ) NATOland troops
1) would have had more training and experience
2) would be in more support and ‘guidence’ roles rather than being ground pounders squatting in a mud soaked trench
Thanks for the reasoned response – even at 25,000 NATO troops that’s quite a big number.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 17:19 utc | 31

@Leon Pastis
It is true that Holslag is not exactly pro-Russia, and he has predicted a US war against China since years. I see it as my duty to politely set the record straight where he is misleading the public. I am on speaking terms with him, and intend to review his latest book. I will do so with the same critical attitude with which I reviewed a book by one of his collegues in the Nethetlands, Rob de Wijk, see https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2021/04/19/eu-supermacht-of-ondergeschikt-aan-grote-mogendheden/

Posted by: Paul-Robert | Feb 5 2023 17:32 utc | 33

Veterans Today
From “Veterans Today,” some comment on the latest Rand report…
“While the report does not explicitly state that ‘US interests (are) being harmed’, it certainly infers that that is the case. Not surprisingly, the report doesn’t mention any of the collateral damage from Washington’s war on Russia, but, surely, that must have been foremost on the minds of the authors.
After all, it is not the $100 billion or the provision of lethal weapons that are costing the US so dearly. It is the accelerating emergence of international coalitions and alternate institutions that have put the US empire on the fast track to ruin. We assume that the analysts at RAND see the same things that every other sentient being sees, that Washington’s misguided conflagration with Moscow is a ‘bridge too far’ and that the blowback is going to be immense and excruciating. Hence, the urgency to end the war quickly.
Here’s an excerpt from the report that was posted in bold print halfway through the text:
“Since avoiding a long war is the highest priority after minimizing escalation risks, the United States should take steps that make an end to the conflict over the medium term more likely.”
Interestingly, while the report details the main escalation risks, (The main risks include a broader war with NATO, a spillover of the conflict into other EU countries, and a nuclear war.) it fails to explain why exactly a ‘long war’ would be so damaging to the United States.
We believe that this omission is intentional and that the authors do not want to concede that the backfiring of sanctions and the forming of anti-American foreign coalitions is clearly undermining US plans to maintain its grip on global power.”
That horse has already left the barn, long ago…

Posted by: donten | Feb 5 2023 17:40 utc | 35

b and others
Isn’t sad that the figures for killed have one glaring omittion, ….
Where are all the figures for civilian deaths ? on both sides !

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 5 2023 17:44 utc | 37

Note: MOD Clobber List, averaged over the past 346 days of the SMO, so far, per day(24hrs):
22.5 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Tank/Mech Battalions ‘DESTROYED’ (100%) every three days)
2.9 multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 1 AFU MBRLS Batteries ‘DESTROYED’ (100%) every two days)
11.6 field artillery, guns and mortars,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Artillery Batteries ‘DESTROYED’ (100%) every day) and
Hence, for example, US/NATO would need to manufacture & promptly supply over ~4,234 Artillery pieces(Up to ~$8M per unit) over next 12 months, at a sustained rated of ~12/day deliverable, merely for AFU to continue in its current derelict state. Or, ~8,213 AFVs over next twelve months, being two full Tank/Mech Battalions delivered every three days …
Materiel losses necessary to be supplied to FEBA daily, or every 10, 30, 60, 90, 180, 360 days merely to sustain current AFU status ?
AFU manpower, critically short, is meaningless, near zero combat power, without trained crew-served combined arms materiel …
Translated, abbreviated, MOD Clobber list (03.02.2023)

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
382(+1) aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
206 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3008(+7) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.8)
403(+1) surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.2)
7723(+4) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 22.5)
1004(+1) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.9)
3988(+7 (10?)) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.6) and
8255(+6) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 24)

Comment:
Sustained Op tempo targeting 103 locs. Significant ammunition stores destroyed.
Three D-20 howitzers, a D-30 howitzer, two US M-777 howitzers, one MSTA-B howitzer, one “Acacia” self-propelled howitzer, two “Gvozdika” self-propelled howitzers & one US M-142 “HIMARS” MBLRS were destroyed.
A Tochka-U tactical missile launcher & a Norwegian-made NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system were destroyed.
Six ammunition depots, a warehouse of artillery ammunition & a fuel storage facility were destroyed.
Two US counter-battery radar stations were destroyed.
RuAF fighter downed an AFU Mig-29.
MOD Clobber list (4.02.2023)

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
382 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
206 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3021(+13) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.8)
403 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.2)
7737(+14) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 22.5)
1007(+3) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.9)
3996(+8)(Corrected total ?) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.6) and
8262(+7) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 24)

Comment:
Sustained Op tempo targeting 108 locs.
Three BM-21 Grad MBRLS, a D-30 howitzer, three MSTA-B howitzer, an Acacia self-propelled howitzer
Three ammunition and a missile & artillery ammunition depot were destroyed.
One MBT destroyed.
Three US counter-battery radar stations were destroyed.
MOD Clobber list (05.02.2023)

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
382 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
206 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3023(+2) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.8)
403 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.2)
7750(+13) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 22.5)
1007 multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.9)
4003(+7) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.6) and
8272(+10) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 24)

Comment:
Exceptionally brief & terse MOD Summary.
Sustained, higher intensity Op tempo targeting 142 locs.
Two D-20 howitzers, three D-30 howitzers, a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer and an Acacia self-propelled howitzer were destroyed.
Two MBTs destroyed.
A warehouse of artillery ammunition was destroyed.

Posted by: Outraged | Feb 5 2023 17:52 utc | 39

I guess the Jagdtiger could be considered the German operational “super” tank as it was the heaviest armored weapon fielded and carried a 128 mm cannon. But it was more of a tank destroyer and mobile artillery than a main battle tank. The total number that were built was less than 100…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jagdtiger

Posted by: DakotaRog | Feb 5 2023 17:59 utc | 41

Mossad has NOT provided(Ignored) figures for known very significant numbers of AFU MIA (Assumed KIA) ?
Majority of dead ‘NATO soldiers’ very probably known Polish Regular formations in Ukrainian uniforms.
Mercs numbers KIA are reasonable given the large available global pool of ex servicemen. Particularly supremesists, gullible & those tempted by high payments on offer.

Posted by: Outraged | Feb 5 2023 18:09 utc | 43

Addendum, Mine @ 14. former Israel FM, Benett’s interview: ” The West blocked Russia-Ukraine peace process.”
Sputniknews has the details of the 5-hour interview, aired in Israel media, Feb. 4, 2023. Just Wow?
And Maria, RF MFA Spokeswoman, chirps it “another confession” [a] reference to earlier revelations by former Ukrainian, German, and leaders that the February 2015 Minsk agreements designed to lead to a lasting peace in the Donbass were just a sham designed to buy Kiev time to rearm.
For readers who can access, it’s a must read
LINK

Extracts:
Israel’s former prime minister has offered new insights into what may have happened.
The United States and its German and French allies halted efforts to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine crisis through a negotiated settlement in the spring of 2022, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has revealed.[.]
Taking a “third” position of agreeing to mediate, Bennett said the “trust” he had established with Russian President Vladimir Putin after their meeting in Sochi in 2021 “was a rare commodity,” and that Washington didn’t know then and still doesn’t know now how to communicate effectively with Moscow. “I don’t think there was anyone else who had the trust of both sides, maybe [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan,” Bennett said.[.]
‘Different Narratives’
“Two very different narratives” quickly emerged around the Ukraine crisis, according to the former Israeli prime minister.

“[Putin] had one narrative and perception, [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky and the West have another. The West sees Putin as an imperialist who wants to take over more places…and that if we don’t stop him in Ukraine he’ll go on to Poland and the Baltics.
Putin’s perception, as early as that meeting in Sochi, and even more so [in talks in March 2022], was that when the [Berlin] Wall came down we reached an agreement with NATO that they wouldn’t expand NATO and would not touch the countries enveloping Russia.
You know, the Americans, on a side note, have a centuries old doctrine called the Monroe Doctrine, whereby hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, North and South America, belongs to the USA.
As early as 200 years ago, they didn’t want France and Britain there. ‘Don’t come here.’ And to a degree that’s Putin’s perception, ‘don’t come here, this is my backyard,’” Bennett said.
“So I called the Americans, [Secretary of State Antony] Blinken, [President Joe] Biden and [Jake] Sullivan, the national security advisor, and I said ‘I have Putin’s ear, I can be a pipeline.’ …Zelensky called me and asked me to contact Putin. I have the protocol. He was in distress. Keep in mind, he knew that his days were numbered, that he would be killed. It wasn’t hard to kill him. The Russians had demands,[.]
Recalling his conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who expressed concerns over Germany’s energy security, Bennett said he had conveyed to the German leader that Putin was interested in a ceasefire.
“So I start talks back and forth, Putin-Zelensky, Zelensky-Putin… Drafts are exchanged, not only through us, directly as well. They’re in Belarus in a city called Gomel. There are two negotiation teams – Russian and Ukrainian, that the world looked down on, but I considered it a good thing that they were talking and exchanging,” Bennett said.
[.]
“Everything I did was fully coordinated with Biden, with [French President Emmanuel] Macron, with [then-British Prime Minister] Boris Johnson, with Scholz, and obviously with Zelensky. I had a debate about [whether peace was possible] with the Americans, I think there was a chance. They said there was no chance,” the former prime minister recalled.
‘Big Concessions’ From Both Sides
“When I met with Putin, he made two big concessions that are obvious now,” Bennett said, referring to his March 5, 2022 trip to Moscow for face-to-face talks with the Russian president. “3-4 hours into the meeting, I asked ‘are you going to kill Zelensky?’ He said ‘I won’t kill Zelensky.’ After the meeting, in the car from the Kremlin to the airport, I contacted Zelensky by WhatsApp or Telegram to say, ‘I came out of a meeting, he’s not going to kill you’. ‘Are you sure?’ he asked. ‘100%, he won’t kill you.’ Two hours later Zelensky went to his office and filmed himself there on his phone,” recording his now well-known “I’m not afraid” selfie video.[.]
US, Allies Step In to Stop Peace
After speaking to Putin on March 5, Bennett traveled to Germany. “Because Germany is the player – Germany and France are the major players in Europe. And in order to procure an agreement, everyone has to do something…We sat with [Scholz’s] national security advisor… […] From there I think that together, we updated the Americans and Macron, and Boris Johnson.”
“Boris Johnson adopted the aggressive line. Macron and Scholz were more pragmatic, and Biden was both. And that’s it. Then I return to Israel and a negotiations marathon of drafts began…It went back and forth and then, I’ll say this in the broad sense, I think there was a legitimate decision by the West to keep striking Putin and not – I mean the more aggressive approach,” Bennett said.[.]
Bucha Breaking Point
Ultimately, the former Israeli leader said he felt about a 50/50 percent chance of a negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine being possible until the massacre at Bucha – the Kiev suburb where Ukrainian forces carried out a “cleansing” operation against Russia-sympathizing civilians after Russian troops withdrew in late March, but then blamed Moscow for the killings. “The Bucha massacre, once that happened, I said, it’s over,” Bennett said.
[original emphasis]

The Empire, USUK twins, are untrustworthy. In fact, they are proven terrorists.
Well then, onward to Odessa, that prime piece of real estate, where there will be an accounting for the criminals; and north to the Polish border.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 5 2023 18:23 utc | 45

he fails to prove that a multipolar world leads to armed anarchy. Such a development should rather be regarded as positive.
But Holslag is right with his remark that the fence is off the dam. Great powers are no longer being lectured by Washington. The West should sing a little lower.
Translation is provided by the Google Translate took in the right upper corner.
Posted by: Paul-Robert | Feb 5 2023 15:43 utc | 6
Don’t pay attention to what this guy is braying.
Posted by: Leon Pastis | Feb 5 2023 16:56 utc | 26
Leon, you are a bit self-contradicting. Holslag seem to be representative of the dominant “Western common wisdom”, and succinct summary of Paul-Robert is a food for thought.
Number one: what is anarchy and is it always bad? Hobbes famously advocated autocracy, contrasting it with short, miserable and brutish life without it. He was inspired by lamentable experiences during English civil war, and there are definitely examples of this types of anarchy in the world today.
However, the ideal anarchy is that society shares enough values that consensual interactions are not regulated by a single authority, and people are “empowered” without arbitrary and selfish diktats. There are good historical examples of that, and also examples of highly creative periods with a big multitude of states: classical Greece, Italian renaissance, Chinese Spring and Autumns period. Centralized empires tend to have a creative period, in part inherited from preceding “anarchy”, followed by decay and succumbing to decadence and in many cases, an implosion.
And we observe and discuss many signals and symptoms that International Liberal World Order is loosing creativity (e.g. prof. Holslag does not seem original in any way, Boeing forgot how to design planes), values (e.g. it mutated into “Rule based world order”, more vague and much more arbitrary) and decays and we can observe signs of implosion, e.g. countries like India jumping out of that ship.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 5 2023 18:29 utc | 47

no prince benefits from long war, sun tzu
especially with western field marshals like run this high profit gambit

Posted by: paddy | Feb 5 2023 18:39 utc | 49

from the MP minister michael gove in UK, refugee hosts have started recieving letters asking details of ukrainian males 18+. it seems they are the next unlucky winners of the great mincer. and hey easy peasy as they are just up the road from the NATO training grounds already

Posted by: hankster | Feb 5 2023 18:49 utc | 51

hankster @ 52
I wonder if they are going to be nabbed the minute they walk into the embassy. Military summary talked about this on the Russian side. Some countries are turning over those that fled the call up and some are not.

Posted by: circumspect | Feb 5 2023 18:53 utc | 53

✍️📄🇺🇦In Ukraine,reports of change of the Minister of Defense, the heads of the Interior Ministry and the SBU, – the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada and the media report
▪️ The head of GUR Budanov will become the Minister of Defense instead of Reznikov;
▪️Reznikov will become Minister of Strategic Industries instead of Ryabikin;
▪️ Klimenko will become the head of the Interior Ministry (the last one died successfully, accidentally)
▪️ Malyuk is the head of the SBU.
The information has not yet been officially confirmed.

https://t.me/azmilitary11/36262

Posted by: Down South | Feb 5 2023 19:00 utc | 55

GOT IT
for Readers boycotting YouTube:
Watch: “Revealing Ukraine” (2019) 1hr 29 mins
https://rumble.com/vwy6pm-revealing-ukraine.html
Oliver Stone’s documentary film – sequel to “Ukraine on Fire” includes interviews V.V. Putin, Viktor Medvedchuk, UKR Opposition -Imo, Viktor is the guy to watch. He was arrested by Zelensky and recently swapped to Moscow. Also other familiar American faces of the 2014 – 2016 events.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 5 2023 19:25 utc | 57

Regular barflies won’t be troubled by the usual propaganda but will find some of the technical details interesting from this Australian company:
https://stockhead.com.au/news/droneshield-demand-spikes-revenue-jumps-60-as-new-era-of-warfare-becomes-reality-bullish/

Posted by: Paul GV | Feb 5 2023 19:29 utc | 59

There’s a reference above to the battle of Kursk and there have been a number of such references during the past year. It’s a bit confusing because there were four separate battles of Kursk during WWII.

Posted by: Chas | Feb 5 2023 19:40 utc | 61

Death of the nation
Throw your soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they will prefer death to flight – Sun Tzu
Ukraine society is in full psychosis mode, believing what they tell them to, not what their own eyes show them. Oxanas are waving to Mykolas while leaving to the front, Mykolas dying in droves on the front, honored with a flag of soon-to-be end state and ideology, as a last salute of the front. Tv news are reporting victories. Modestly, they admit, here and there, they retreated to shorten the front line. Few Oxanas are writing on networks about the dead and missing. But they cry for dead and ask for missing. They don’t have the desire to end the war. And they are often dismissed. “Hysterical woman,” they say. ” Kill the orcs,” they say. “We will regain our land,” they say. Their sons, husbands, fathers, and relatives live four (4) hours in certain directions of the front.
They are winning! Future generations will with curiosity learn about this particular effect thrown upon the entire society. How it lost generations and future. They start recruiting children. Decapitation at its finest. You know that something is wrong when they have no problem sacrificing teenagers. But they will defend it – ” Patriotic consciousness of our youth is the pride of every Ukrainian men and women; they are the role model to which Ukraine society should strive to.” For the glory of the Trident flag!
Germans were smarter. Most of them knew when the end was near. True, some resisted to the very end, dreaming of “Wunderwaffe – miracle weapon” that will turn the tide. They also conscripted kids, creating the last line of defense, throwing them in front of the guns and tanks. They later count them as civilians when turned into flags. But smart Germans learn something from it. That it isn’t worth it.
The people of Ukraine didn’t read the book till the end. And how would they? They burned them. Or they simply forgot. We will remind them. Two T-34s stand in front of the Reichstag in Berlin, as an omen of what it was and a prophecy what it will be.
Ukraine looked for its identity in troubled years. It found it in the famous tradition of “, we are better than everyone else”, In contrast to Germans, they even publicly admitted what they want to do with the “lower” races.
But we must not generalize. There are Mykula 1 and Oxana 1, who think that they are the master race. And there are Mykula 2 and Oxana 2 who are only looking to survive, whereas Mykyla 2 is forcefully mobilized and he will probably have the same faith as Mykula 1. That’s why we are relatively cordial when they surrender. There is a possibility that we have Mykula 2 in our hands.
What are we going to do with Ukraine, in the end? We killed, we are killing and we are going to kill Mykulas 1. And then, we are going to kill some more As long as they are fighting us, they are doing us a favor. We are cleaning all those 1’s which need to be cleaned. The battle for Aretomvsk proves our assertion. They could choose to surrender.  They rejected it. Among them, there are numbers of 2’s. They will end up the same. There was no war that didn’t eat innocent.
But I have to wonder, what will Oxana 1 tell to 2 when they meet up near the flags? Would they go into small talk, accuse one another, or kept silent?
The death of a nation can be seen on its graveyards. For Ukraine, it’s too late.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32106

Posted by: Down South | Feb 5 2023 19:47 utc | 63

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 5 2023 19:36 utc | 61
Ukraine is a sideshow – Moscow’s War Aims are far more comprehensive. These war aims are described in the Dec 2021 treaty proposal.
This ( global ) War has barely started.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 19:55 utc | 65

Chas @62
Militarily speaking, the Battle of the Kursk Salient during the summer of ’43 has long been the primary situation.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 5 2023 19:56 utc | 67

Posted by: Lenny Henry | Feb 5 2023 17:09 utc | 30

This war is over by the end of this year, maybe before the Autumn

Optimist. The war has several fronts, including economic and diplomatic; these fronts will rumble on for many years.

Putin’s popularity will depend on how it finishes and if the Russian people feel let down or not by the outcome.

That seems very much as if you are projecting Western political considerations onto the Russian electorate.

Basically, what the peace looks like after everything that has happened and all things have been considered.

I’m not sure that any of us here have a clue what “the peace” will look like. Not you, not me, not the West generally. I’ve an inkling it won’t be to everyone’s taste…

By now, many Russians have their own ideas what peace should look like.

In the best traditions of Wikipedia [citation needed]

It’s not going to be easy for Putin to balance out those expectations.

Again, the projection of Western political values onto Russia, its leadership and its people. Are you one of the regime-changeniks that frequently pop up?

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 5 2023 20:17 utc | 69

Again, the projection of Western political values onto Russia, its leadership and its people. Are you one of the regime-changeniks that frequently pop up?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 5 2023 20:17 utc | 71
###########
The Western lense on Asian approaches is one of my pet peeves. And that isn’t even going to the enormous differences between the Indians, Chinese and Russians.
I can’t wait (sarcasm) for war with China to kick off, and then suddenly we’ll have hundreds of Chinese internet Generals commenting on how the conflict is going, and how Xi was always a WEF sleeper agent for Israel. 🙄

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2023 20:31 utc | 71

This week’s column by Crooke is now available, “EU’s ‘Ukraine Derangement’ blights the entire Middle East”. IMO, there are two significant paragraphs within Crooke’s column, the first relates to a comment I made several days ago and expanded upon at my VK:
“The economic benefits of discounted energy, China’s investment capacities,​ and sound money are the ingredients for a new, Asia-wide industrial revolution, whilst the West faces its defining choice​ –​ of relapse back into the bust/boom pattern (with ‘bust’ being the odds on prospect)​ — ​or paradigmatic change, for which the political class is unprepared.”
And then there’s this further development in what we’ve been discussing for several years:
“Just as the consequences of massive sanctions on Russian energy and the banning of Russian banks from SWIFT were not thought through in advance by Washington,​ ​s​o too, are the consequences flowing from the next phase of the wider ‘financial war’ ​–​ the intent to implement a simple, gold-linked digital currency -for real-time ‘clearing’ between Asian Central Banks ​- superseding earlier notions of a commodity-linked trade currency​, ​which are routinely dismissed in the West. ”
As I noted on the WiR thread, Lavrov’s in Iraq today and tomorrow and the above will certainly be discussed along with what the next paragraph deals with. What Exile suggested @66 goes well beyond Russia acting solo. Some aspects of the wider goal of erasing Outlaw US Empire hegemony are already in motion. It’s entirely possible the anticipated Spring Offensive won’t happen in Ukraine but will be a global action aimed at curtailing NATO’s ability to wage war via hybrid means.
Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the Joint Declaration by Russia/China that forms the basis for the geopolitical rearrangement that is linked in English instead of Russian so it can be read by all barflies. If it’s not in your archive, it ought to be.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 5 2023 20:33 utc | 73

The following link details much of the template used by NATO to use Ukraine to fight Russia. Very detailed and accurate except for underestimating Russian Military strength
DEFENSE CONCEPT FOR UKRAINE
https://www.thepostil.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/A-Defense-Concept-for-Ukraine-Posen-1994.pdf

Posted by: Krollchem | Feb 5 2023 20:37 utc | 75

“When Zaluzhny was in the US, he met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Milley. He secretly told them that Ukraine had lost 257,000 people since the beginning of the conflict,” the retired officer shared.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32137

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 5 2023 20:40 utc | 77

The proxy war in Ukraine was a perfect opportunity to start mass scale historical revisionism, which is going to help the war against Beijing and Moscow for so long in effort to conserve American hegemony. That’s a great time to start whitewashing Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, while focusing on Russian crimes as that helps demonizing both socialism and Russians, while moving USSR to the bad side of history and keeping United States and United Kingdom on the good of history.

Posted by: Bopbop | Feb 5 2023 20:43 utc | 79

@45 rk
Oh OK, well neither side has photos for hardly any kills. There’s some but I think maybe most stuff goes undocumented. Might be dangerous to try and even to release sensitive military information.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 5 2023 20:50 utc | 81

Interesting to note the following re. Mossad data.
When compared to MOD numbers, they are
-underestimating aircraft (308 vs 360)
-overestimating air defense systems (497 vs 380)
-underestimating armored vehicles (7500 vs 6300)
-overestimating field artillery and mortars (7360 vs 3800-3900).
The Mossad data is 13th January 2023 so adjusted RuMOD numbers with a few percents. There could be some definition differences too, especially in armored and fighting vehicle section. The Russians also count soft-skinned vehicles to some of their number, meaning converted soft skinned civilian vehicles for military use.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 20:58 utc | 83

aristodemos 57
All that is a given surely. The American public are daft and will believe anything. Let me put it another way. How do you think this will end. How will you feel if the ending doesn’t meet your expectations whilst being in such a domineering position to dictate terms ?
It’s not going to be easy to balance opinion. If And it’s a big IF the majority of Russians wanted Putin to go further. What do the opinion polls say ?
Let’s say for talking sake, Putin stops at the borders of the new territories. Yet, 70% of Russia public opinion wanted him to go to the Dnieper and take back Odessa ? Public opinion matters and regime change might take place after all ?
It’s a very tricky balancing act deciding how this should end. Complete bonkers to suggest otherwise.

Posted by: Derek Henry | Feb 5 2023 20:59 utc | 85

Exile 66
As Brian Berlatic has pointed out in how he thinks this might end using Syria as the example. You’ll probably end up in the disappointed camp. Brian thinks there will be huge disappointment if Putin uses the Syrian model to end the conflict.
Would be interesting to see any opinion polls if they have been carried out. To see how the majority of Russians want this to end. Anybody got any ?

Posted by: Derek Henry | Feb 5 2023 21:10 utc | 87

Posted by: james | Feb 5 2023 21:06 utc | 87
Assassinating political leaders is often frowned up – even the killing of Admiral Yamamoto during WW2. And wasn’t there a a story that the Americans stopped the Ukrainians trying to kill Gerasimov? Maybe one set of leaders regard another set of leaders as being part of their club. More realistically, it is counterproductive, especially when you are dealing with people who are making mistakes. In fact at this stage, the Russians would probably want to protect Zelensky. I wouldn’t be surpised if a political faction in Ukraine is planning to assassinate Zelensky, and pin the blame on Russia.

Posted by: Technophobe | Feb 5 2023 21:21 utc | 89

@Technophobe | Feb 5 2023 21:21 utc | 90

And wasn’t there a a story that the Americans stopped the Ukrainians trying to kill Gerasimov?

US Americans have doubts about killing leaders of other countries?
What about Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gadaffi, Soleimani to name just a few recent victims..

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 5 2023 21:29 utc | 91

Just about everybody is saying they now have to take Kharkiv in order to protect Luhansk.
I’m going to go with and put my money on what the majority of opinion polls say within Russia. How public opinion wants it to end. Over his term Putin has paid very close attention to public opinion. Don’t see a reason why this time would be any different.

Posted by: Derek Henry | Feb 5 2023 21:32 utc | 93

From Gordon Hahn’s article:

Russia now has available in and around Ukraine 5-600,000 regular troops, almost none of which have been used so far, with Moscow having been relying on the DPR and LNR forces, the Wagner troops, Chechens, and massive attacks from the air by artillery, rockets, drones and such in previous phases of the war.

Exactly as I said in previous threads – and was, of course, disputed by people who can’t read what I wrote.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 5 2023 21:36 utc | 95

@ unimperator | Feb 5 2023 20:58 utc | 85
MOD Clobber List for 13.01.23:

372 aircraft,
200 helicopters,
2876 unmanned aerial vehicles,
400 surface-to-air missile systems, (Each AD Radar destroyed, no(Soviet pre ’91) spares/replacements, effectively: Unclaimed Kills)
7495 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
982 multiple rocket launchers,
3820 field artillery guns and mortars, and
8027 special military vehicles.

You’re welcome.

Posted by: Outraged | Feb 5 2023 21:38 utc | 97

@ Norwegian | Feb 5 2023 21:29 utc | 92
What about Patrice Lumumba & UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld ?

Posted by: Outraged | Feb 5 2023 21:46 utc | 99