Ukraine Open Thread 2023-31
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on February 5, 2023 at 15:11 UTC | Permalink
next page »889 Tanks and armored vehicles?
427 Howitzer ?
157,000 Dead?
:)) nice try mr mossad
Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 15:27 utc | 2
In an extensive interview Bennett speaks about the failed negotiations in Istanbul between Ukraine and Russia.
"According to his memory ,positions among Western leaders were divided on further steps. 'You see, each leader has his own approach. You can divide the leaders into those who stick to the line: 'We have to turn Putin down.'" <... > And those who say, "C'mon, we're all losers in this war." Boris Johnson advocated more radical measures, and Macron and Scholz were more pragmatic, shall we say. Biden supported both approaches,” Bennett recalled.
"Biden supported both approaches," I understand. Apparently, the reality of the US defeat in their Proxy War is slowly approaching by little steps. Bennett can fill that role as a former, as can Johnson, whose radical approach might now be that of the loser. Months might still pass.
Posted by: b | Feb 5 2023 15:18 utc | 2
"Russia:
(...)
18,480 dead
44,500 Injured
323 Captive
Ukriane:
(...)
157,000 Dead
234,000 injured
17,230 Captive"
it seems difficult to be able to contradict this information. It would be interesting to see if the NYT and other media outlets pick them up.
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 15:39 utc | 3
❗️AFU transfer reinforcements from Artemovsk to Ugledar due to heavy losses: detailsAs of 28 January, due to heavy losses near Ugledar, the Ukrainian armed forces were forced to start transferring reinforcements needed for the defense of Artemovsk (Bakhmut). According to RT, since 30 January, mobilized people from central regions of Ukraine - Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkov, and Poltava regions - have been moving in the Ugledar direction. Most of them have never served in the army and have no combat experience.
The total number of mobilized men could presumably reach four battalions (about 1,500 men). These reserves of the AFU were being prepared to be sent to the 63rd Mechanized and 71st Jaeger Brigades, but due to the complication of the situation around Ugledar, these plans have been reconsidered.
After distribution in the Kurakhove fortification area 30 km north of Ugledar, the mobilized persons were handed over to the AFU units with the highest casualties: the 72nd Mechanized and 56th Motorized Infantry Brigades, as well as units of the 68th Jaeger Brigade, whose casualties exceeded 50% of the total number of personnel killed and wounded.
The Ukrainian army's infantry units around Ugledar suffer heavy losses due to the malfunctioning of NATO's M777 and FH-70 155mm guns. These howitzers were in service with the 55th Independent Artillery Brigade. Since the beginning of January, this unit, located 10 km south of Kurakhove, has been subjected to regular raids by Russian Air Force assault aircraft and Lancet drone strikes, due to which most of the guns were either destroyed together with their ammunition or damaged.
The surviving 155mm guns have to be constantly transported and hidden due to constant attacks on AFU positions, which makes it impossible for the 55th Brigade to conduct full-fledged counter-battery warfare in the Ugledar direction
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32077
Posted by: Down South | Feb 5 2023 15:42 utc | 4
"Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: According to information confirmed by several sources, Kiev intends to carry out a large-scale provocation to accuse Russia of allegedly committing "war crimes."
According to reports, Kiev plans to carry out a controlled bombing of the buildings of several medical institutions in Kramatorsk in order to accuse the Russian Federation of an allegedly deliberate strike on civilian objects. It is known that, accompanied by SBU officers, foreign journalists have already arrived in Kramatorsk to cover the planned provocation."
I remember that a Bucha in Kramatorsk was planned since last year. We laughed that the diversity hire in CIA only uses cities that an American could pronounce or relate to an English word. No Dnipropetrovsk or Novosyolovskoye on CNN, Americans can't process that .
Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 15:43 utc | 5
Just published 'Will the fence open if Russia wins in Ukraine?' :
Its key features are: The collective West is at war with Russia. Free University Brussels professor Jonathan Holslag fears that Western dominance will end, but he fails to prove that a multipolar world leads to armed anarchy. Such a development should rather be regarded as positive.
But Holslag is right with his remark that the fence is off the dam. Great powers are no longer being lectured by Washington. The West should sing a little lower.
Translation is provided by the Google Translate took in the right upper corner.
Posted by: Paul-Robert | Feb 5 2023 15:43 utc | 6
I have been arguing that the US and Russia are in fact negotiating a settlement on the ground. Here is another indicator. It features a break in the elites thinking on the war and how devistating it could be for the US.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2023/02/04/ukraine-is-sinking-are-western-elites-bailing-out/
Posted by: JimG | Feb 5 2023 15:47 utc | 7
Donbass Devushka@PeImeniPusha
Conscription continues in Dnepropetrovsk
https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1622228003601416193
Video in Tweet.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 5 2023 15:48 utc | 8
it seems difficult to be able to contradict this information.
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 15:39 utc | 5
Very easy. At only 157k dead there is no need to hunt men on the streets and demand that EU returns male refugees to Ukr and you won't find soldiers over 50.
At close to 300k dead and around same number wounded, such actions are perfectly explained.
The Russian losses on tanks, helicopters and other weapons seem to be too high. Ukr published the same photos mirrored to count as multiple events. At 56 helicopters and 23 planes they don't need to mirror or use different angles for the same object. Many times they took photos of their own destroyed tanks.
Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 9
I dismissed all facts pointing to Putin.and its billionaires being both atlanticists and zionists, as western psywar. How wrong it was, they (and their support base in Moscow) have indeed accelerated the Eltsin era pillage of the russian economy and most of it went to "russian" kleptocrats whose spiritual home is Hell Aviv and the City. Russian patriots are being wasted for this cynical lot. This is what global capitalism does...
https://t.me/strelkovii/3873
https://t.me/strelkovii/3874
Posted by: Kareem | Feb 5 2023 15:55 utc | 10
@CitizenSmith | Feb 5 2023 15:25 utc | 3 ...troll vomits...old post copy/paste
Very much so. You encouraged me to repost something from the previous thread (#228 of 232), though. It is about trolls and their dangerous psyops.
Posted by: OttoE | Feb 5 2023 15:55 utc | 11
"Ex-Prime Minister of Israel spoke about Putin's promise not to kill Zelensky
How wonderful! And they also say that our president does not know how to keep his word and never fulfills what he publicly promises! -
Here! Look! - They never even tried to destroy the commander-in-chief of the enemy armed forces, Zelensky.
And it is even more beautiful that the Israeli prime minister demands to "give the floor", that the head of the enemy (for Russia) state will not be killed and our president gives it without objection! These are not the damned times when "grandfathers fought"!
It is a pity that the president does not promise anything to the Russians and only occasionally "calls" his subordinates to do something there so that the subordinates of the Jew whom he promised not to kill would not be killed either.
P.S. We are waiting for a refutation ... even if Peskov will carry some "blizzard", otherwise "some kind of shame" is completely ..." https://t.me/strelkovii/3873
Posted by: Kareem | Feb 5 2023 15:56 utc | 12
@Roadblock | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 12
The answer is the RF naval base of Sevastopol.
No way that it could become a naval base of NATO.
Posted by: scc | Feb 5 2023 15:57 utc | 13
It's official. What we knew is confirmed by none other than Israel's former Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett:
Another Merkel-Hollande confirmation the West is not interested in a peace settlement.
Get a load of this.
West ‘blocked’ Russia-Ukraine peace process – former Israeli PM
RT February 5, 2023
Both Moscow and Kiev appeared to have been ready for a ceasefire, Naftali Bennett says
Peace might’ve been agreed between Russia and Ukraine shortly after the start of the conflict, but Kiev’s Western backers blocked the negotiations between the two neighbors, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who mediated those contacts, has said.Bennet, who gave an almost five-hour-long video interview to Israel’s Channel 12 on Saturday, claimed that his efforts as a middleman came close to succeeding as both Moscow and Kiev appeared to be ready to make concessions and agree to a truce.
It didn’t happen because “I think there was a legitimate decision by the West to keep striking [Russian President Vladimir] Putin… I mean the more aggressive approach,” he said.When asked by the host if the US and its allies “blocked” the peace process between Moscow and Kiev, the former PM replied: “Basically, yes. They blocked it.”
“I claim there was a good chance of reaching a ceasefire. But I’m not claiming it was the right thing,” he clarified.[.] (emphasis added here)
Got that? There was a good chance of reaching a ceasefire perhaps leading to a peace settlement, but War is good. There is never such a thing as too much money.
The lives of the great unwashed matter not.
With this mindset, Israeli Khzaars are walking on thin ice with Russia.
In the afterlife, if not before fallen, for these criminals there is a shortage of old pianos for the job at hand.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 5 2023 16:02 utc | 14
"The more long-range weapons the West supplies to the Kyiv regime, the further it will need to be moved away from Russian territories, the Russian Armed Forces are pushing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a safe distance, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
According to Lavrov, the Russian Armed Forces are already trying to move the artillery of the Ukrainian armed forces to a distance that does not pose a threat to Russian territories. The minister stressed that the more long-range weapons are supplied to the Kyiv regime, the further they will need to be moved away from the territories that are part of Russia, RIA Novosti reports.
And yet our government really lives on another planet, including Minister Lavrov. On their planet, the front has long been moved away from Avdiivka and Maryinka, located in the suburbs of Donetsk. The shelling of Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk regions, Crimea has long been forgotten. The front passes somewhere in the region of Lvov.
And on our planet, shelling of Russian territories is intensifying more and more. And more and more moving east. The matter has already reached the installation of air defense systems on the roofs of administrative buildings in Moscow.
But seriously, such statements discredit the Russian government and the country as a whole. Our "sworn partners" are well aware of the real situation at the front and know that there is no real advance of the Russian group in Ukraine. With the exception of small tactical successes in a couple of directions, consisting in advancing several kilometers, or even several hundred meters.
And this gives our enemies reason to conclude that the Russian army has run out of steam and is no longer capable of strategic success. And if so, then it is necessary to increase the flow of assistance to Ukraine and provide it with more and more modern and more long-range weapons. To hasten the defeat of Russia. And in fact, Minister Lavrov, with his statements far from reality, is pushing them to this." https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/721
Posted by: Kareem | Feb 5 2023 16:03 utc | 15
@shadowbanned | Feb 5 2023 5:19 utc | 127
Repost from previous thread (#228 there)
Troll said...If needed, [Russia should] use tactical nukes
Concern troll quotes straight from the NATO warmonger's holy song "What are they for, if we can’t use them?". It is the wet dream of some delusional US falcons to use tactical nuclear arms. NOW, in far away EUROPE. World propaganda narrative control requires that Russia ignites the first blast.
Being aware of this NATO tactics, Russia has consistently been saying for decades, what we can read in just another article today: (Machine translation, The cases in which Russia’s military doctrine allows the use of nuclear arms).
1. when an enemy uses nuclear or other...weapons of mass destruction against Russia and its allies,
2. if there is credible information about the launch of ballistic missiles to attack Russia and its allies,
3. when an enemy attacks facilities required for retaliatory action by nuclear forces
4. in the event of aggression against Russia using conventional weapons, threatening the existence of the Russian state itself
So, NO, it is neither "needed" nor advisable to use nukes. "Mad dog" James N. Mattis got this right when he testified before the House Armed Services Committee on February 6, 2018:
"I do not think there is any such thing as a tactical nuclear weapon. Any nuclear weapon used any time is a strategic game changer."
The only reasonable conclusion is to join a serious disarmament initiative. I recommend the Los Alamos Study Group (LASG). Check out their website. The bulletin from yesterday "Nuclear Hotseat" says
It is very important for more voices to join in opposing this war. Please do not underestimate the importance of a single candle in a dark cave.
Last not least, LASG have a recommendable section Ukraine War News and Views and a section What you can do.
Posted by: OttoE | Feb 5 2023 16:11 utc | 16
234 Dead – NATO military trainers (US and UK)
2,458 Dead – NATO soldiers (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, ...)
5,360 Dead – Mercenaries
suggests (234+2,458+5,360) * 20? that as many as 150,000 NATOland Military Are fighting in country.
Barflies is this possible ?
Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 16:16 utc | 17
JimG | Feb 5 2023 15:47 utc | 9
"Evaluations" of the current and near future situation regarding the US/NATO/UK war on Russia from entirely controlled western sources and outlets - partisan or not - fail entirely to understand and account for Russian/Chinese/Iranian/North Korean/etc. differing points of view from that of "the west".
Seems to me that the US/West burned its existing and potential bridges with the RoW, particularly Russia & China as front runners for US Empire hostilities.
The stage itself is not what the The Empire perceives it to be anymore, if it ever was.
A "Peace" that doesn't include the complete surrender of the US Empire with forced compliance with a Community consensus of what the World Village is, and how it will be enforced, is just a return to the same dynamic that existed which brought forth more of Empire - Might makes Right.
What I see today is the emergence of strong enough world personalities leading and guiding other societies to different conclusions because they see different more equitable dynamics than those of the US Empire, which only stands for the "might makes right" paradigm.
Posted by: DoesItReallyMatter | Feb 5 2023 16:27 utc | 18
@Roadblock | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 12
Seriously?
OK, following the US orchestrated violent coup in Kiev that replaced the democratically elected president with hand picked puppets those areas of Ukraine that had voted overwhelmingly for the deposed president began to protest against the coup and the anti-Russian policies the new government advocated. Crimea, which has always had a majority ethnic Russian population and had been trying to rejoin Russia since 1991, voted to separate from Ukraine. Russia, which had about 35k soldiers stationed in Crimea to support their naval base in Sevastopol (by agreement with Ukraine under the lease agreement), used their forces to politely request that the Ukrainian armed forces stationed in Crimea either surrender or join the Russian armed forces which they did. The Crimean population then voted overwhelmingly to join Russia, a decision with was subsequently ratified and approved by the Russian Duma. Meanwhile, protests against the coup in the eastern regions continued (in Kharkov, Odessa, Mariupol, and Donetsk. The coup government decided to violently suppress all protests which they proceeded to do, first using radical right wing proxy forces and their security forces and later the Ukrainian military. They designated the protesters in Donetsk and Lughansk who were making plans to hold a referendum as terrorists and began attacking them with army troops and the airforce. Those two oblasts quickly organized resistance forces to fight back. These efforts to resist were never sanctioned by Russia, nor were they supported by the Russian armed forces, although there was much regional sympathy for them and they received some unofficial support and volunteers from Russia.
The coup government intended to kick the Russians out of Sevastopol by voiding the lease agreement, outlaw the use of the Russian language for official business and education, and remove it's status as co-equal with the Ukrainian language. The first action was unacceptable to Russia and was opposed by the local population in Crimea. The second, and many additional anti-Russian policies, were unacceptable to the majority population in most of eastern Ukraine. They were denied effective representation in government in Kiev and took up arms to protect their interests. The fighting which erupted in 2014 was a civil war and not due to 'Russia stirring the pot'.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 5 2023 16:30 utc | 19
Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 16:16 utc | 21
Where you got factor 20 from? In the case of Ukrainian forces, allegedly 900,000 were mobilized creating 750 thousand troops (disabilities or the losses), thus the KIA loss between 17 and 20 percent, factor 5 to 6. Mind you, about half of the force is on the front lines.
Mercenaries are in a much larger percentage on the front lines, and perhaps even larger percentage in the difficult places, so I would assume factor lower than 5, hence 20-25 thousands of mercenaries (or simply foreign volunteers, the same thing), and that is absolutely possible and consistent with other sources. As are Ukrainian losses.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 5 2023 16:34 utc | 20
Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 15:53 utc | 9
Mossad is definitely pro-western source. Now that's an "optimistic" estimate for the west, think how bad situation is in reality for Ukraine. The only explanation Zelensky needs to hunt refugees in UK and other countries is the dead are several hundred thousands. And more importantly, the burn rate is very high.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 16:38 utc | 21
@ahji | Feb 5 2023 13:17 | 217 on the February 4 Ukraine thread
thanks for that interesting link on the Ukrainian government's decision to revoke the citizenship of former office holders who are ethnic Russians and others with the following actions
- imposing sanctions on them
-arresting and seizing all their property, corporation rights and other assets for the benefit of the state
- and calling for anyone with information on any other property belonging to these non-citizens to inform the government.
This process sounds familiar and here is more. The Ukrainian writer, Larisa Nitsoi, proposed recently by tweet that all Ukrainians who support Russia should be forced to wear a red star on their clothes "this is not segregation, we're not fascist Germany, people just need to understand who is around them." Ms Nitsoi seems to be unaware that differentiation like this is usually followed by expropriation of property and assets, segregation and expulsion and/or murder, or is she hoping that her audience is unaware?
OT - I wanted to say thank you to uncle tungsten for his reference to the work of Professor Christian Gerlach. I've just been reading his book "Extremely Violent Societies: Mass Violence in the Twentieth-Century World". It certainly provides some perspective on what is going on in Ukraine.
Posted by: cirsium | Feb 5 2023 16:43 utc | 22
Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 16:16 utc | 17
I very much doubt that official German NATO soldiers are fighting alongside various partners in Ukraine. It doesn't make any sense at all.
Consider only the history of communication processes of radical war supporters in Lithuania, Poland and the Ukraine - how they acted towards Berlin and how they continue to act. That hurts Berlin and Scholz personally enormously. If German soldiers were fighting in Ukraine alongside Ukraine, that wouldn't happen. Scholz would not allow himself to be harmed in several ways in this way. In addition, it is not in the interest of Berlin at all.
On the contrary, publicity on this topic (or even facts - that are missing) could undoubtedly herald the end of the chancellor. This connection is perhaps what is interesting about the mention of german participation coming from this source.
Mercenaries from all countries may be there, but I would limit the participation of official troops in the theater to very few countries.
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 16:50 utc | 23
The discussions on possible use of nuclear weapons tend to be hyperbolic on all sides.
Nuclear weapons are ULTIMATE escalation, so hard to conceive where batshit insane decision makers are, so it is not an immediate possibility. However, there are may possible intermediate escalation steps that can lead to it. For example, damaging facilities calculated for maximal economic losses for the adversary.
Putin seems to be a stickler on sticking to precedents, e.g. secession of Crimea, and earlier Abkhasia and South Ossetia modeled on secession of Kosovo, or damaging power generation and railroads modeled on NATO war on Yugoslavia. Damage to North Stream II seems another "attractive precedent". For example, Russia may consider damaging pipelines from Norway, I guess that a missile can inflict a similar damage as planted bombs for pipelines in shallow seas, like under 50 m. LNG installations and refineries are even more "attractive" because once ignited, they may burn very well, so few missiles per object can inflict multi-billion loss per object, that is a conceivable subsequent level of escalation.
Thus on the way to Mutually Assured Annihilation, hard to reverse, one should think about Mutually Assured Economic Destruction that can be scaled up gradually. Unfortunately, Western leadership can be insane enough to embark on that route.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 5 2023 16:53 utc | 24
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 16:50 utc | 23
It was discussed earlier last year. Nato uses a scheme where they give leave, or decommission soldiers from a nations military ranks, and sends them to Ukraine to enlist in UAF. Ukraine has a policy in place where they also offer to hand passports for mercenaries and those that enlist. Apparently, the soldier on leave, serving in Ukraine still gets the service time in UAF counted toward their own service record.
Also recall seeing in Bulgaria or Romania that they have advertisements for regular soldiers that for a very good pay above their normal pay, they can enlist into UAF. So I'm going on a limb here, but Nato soldiers are there en-masse.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 16:54 utc | 25
@ Paul-Robert
Belgian professor Holslag is a well known Russia- and China hater. Don't pay attention to what this guy is braying. It is a pitty that this kind of guys teaches young people at the universities that they have to hate China and Russia. Of course he is always invited on Belgian television too.
Posted by: Leon Pastis | Feb 5 2023 16:56 utc | 26
Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 16:16 utc | 17
234 Dead – NATO military trainers (US and UK)
2,458 Dead – NATO soldiers (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, ...)
5,360 Dead – Mercenaries
This is possible but would be challenging to keep quiet about western casualties in the age of social media - MSM can be told to keep silent e.g. D notice in UK but social media is hard to silence - UK lost 183 soldiers in Iraq to give a scale, Poland lost 23 - hard to hide these numbers
Numbers for Russia and Allies seem credible and are consistent with BBC & Meduza (Russian oppositionist) Social media / funeral notice based survey
Ukraine Casualties - equipment loss numbers fit with RU clobber List - manpower losses look conservative, but fair
A sad waste of humanity
Posted by: Aslangeo | Feb 5 2023 17:01 utc | 27
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 16:54 utc | 25
I know the discussion. That's an interesting mechanism that I don't question, any more than the participation of Nato troops. However, that would be a huge scandal in Germany, even among those sections of the population who would have supported the delivery of German tanks. It would be an expression of participation in the war and the Netflix dreamers would wake up. The chancellor's head would roll, the coalition might be broken up and NATO membership would suddenly be the topic of the day in Germany. So it wouldn't be the worst if it were real and on topic, but why would Berlin take that risk if it's not in Berlin's interest?
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 17:05 utc | 29
This war is over by the end of this year, maybe before the Autumn. Putin's popularity will depend on how it finishes and if the Russian people feel let down or not by the outcome. Basically, what the peace looks like after everything that has happened and all things have been considered. By now, many Russians have their own ideas what peace should look like. It's not going to be easy for Putin to balance out those expectations.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Feb 5 2023 17:09 utc | 30
Why a factor of 20 for NATOland troops rather than 5 ?
Because ( just a crude guesstimate ) NATOland troops
1) would have had more training and experience
2) would be in more support and ‘guidence’ roles rather than being ground pounders squatting in a mud soaked trench
Thanks for the reasoned response - even at 25,000 NATO troops that’s quite a big number.
Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 17:19 utc | 31
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 16:54 utc | 25
NATO troops fighting in Ukraine? Naw. They’re just on ‘vacation.’
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 17:05 utc | 29
You believe that? Oberst Klein ordered the killing of 100 people in Kundus and now he is Generalmajor. In the West such "Scandals" usually lead to promotions.
Posted by: Vikiichka | Feb 5 2023 17:21 utc | 32
@Leon Pastis
It is true that Holslag is not exactly pro-Russia, and he has predicted a US war against China since years. I see it as my duty to politely set the record straight where he is misleading the public. I am on speaking terms with him, and intend to review his latest book. I will do so with the same critical attitude with which I reviewed a book by one of his collegues in the Nethetlands, Rob de Wijk, see https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2021/04/19/eu-supermacht-of-ondergeschikt-aan-grote-mogendheden/
Posted by: Paul-Robert | Feb 5 2023 17:32 utc | 33
[UK]raine casualties are much higher than those shown in the list. Further the destroyed equipment is also higher.
Posted by: AI | Feb 5 2023 17:35 utc | 34
From "Veterans Today," some comment on the latest Rand report...
"While the report does not explicitly state that ‘US interests (are) being harmed’, it certainly infers that that is the case. Not surprisingly, the report doesn’t mention any of the collateral damage from Washington’s war on Russia, but, surely, that must have been foremost on the minds of the authors.
After all, it is not the $100 billion or the provision of lethal weapons that are costing the US so dearly. It is the accelerating emergence of international coalitions and alternate institutions that have put the US empire on the fast track to ruin. We assume that the analysts at RAND see the same things that every other sentient being sees, that Washington’s misguided conflagration with Moscow is a ‘bridge too far’ and that the blowback is going to be immense and excruciating. Hence, the urgency to end the war quickly.
Here’s an excerpt from the report that was posted in bold print halfway through the text:
“Since avoiding a long war is the highest priority after minimizing escalation risks, the United States should take steps that make an end to the conflict over the medium term more likely.”
Interestingly, while the report details the main escalation risks, (The main risks include a broader war with NATO, a spillover of the conflict into other EU countries, and a nuclear war.) it fails to explain why exactly a ‘long war’ would be so damaging to the United States.
We believe that this omission is intentional and that the authors do not want to concede that the backfiring of sanctions and the forming of anti-American foreign coalitions is clearly undermining US plans to maintain its grip on global power."
That horse has already left the barn, long ago...
Posted by: donten | Feb 5 2023 17:40 utc | 35
The ECR Group of the EU invited to a special Event on January 31. to the EU Parliament:
"Imperial Russia: Conquest, Genocide and Colonization - Prospects for Deimperialization and Decolonization"
This event was moderated by Ms. Fotyga Fotyaga , the former Foreign Minister of Poland.
The speakers came from the group called: "Free Nations of Postrussia Forum"
Such an event takes place in Brussels between the memorial days of Auschwitz (to which no Russian delegation was invited to Poland) and those of Stalingrad. That is extremely remarkable.
A short look at this map (scroll a bit) might open some ideas about the function and use in terms of "identity and diversity" that we value so admonishingly in our society - and from which new topics can be derived such as "legitimate rule vs. illegitimate rule".
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 17:41 utc | 36
b and others
Isn't sad that the figures for killed have one glaring omittion, ....
Where are all the figures for civilian deaths ? on both sides !
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 5 2023 17:44 utc | 37
@ Aristodemos, last week
A nit picky thing that I wanted to clarify when during a post a week or so ago, Aristodemos mentioned "Tiger IIs" at the Battle of Krusk that had no organic machine gun(s) and thus were vulnerable to Russian infantry at close quarters.
There were no Tiger IIs "King Tiger" at Kursk BUT there were "Ferdinands" which were a SP 88mm gun built on top of a Tiger I chassis. These were the problematic German armor specimens at Kursk. In 1944, they were upgraded with a forward hull mounted MG and renamed the "Elephant"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elefant
The King Tigers came out in 1944 and saw battle until the end of the war. Less than 500 were made. They were the operational German "super tank" of WWII.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_II
Posted by: DakotaRog | Feb 5 2023 17:45 utc | 38
Note: MOD Clobber List, averaged over the past 346 days of the SMO, so far, per day(24hrs):
22.5 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Tank/Mech Battalions 'DESTROYED' (100%) every three days)
2.9 multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 1 AFU MBRLS Batteries 'DESTROYED' (100%) every two days)
11.6 field artillery, guns and mortars,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Artillery Batteries 'DESTROYED' (100%) every day) and
Hence, for example, US/NATO would need to manufacture & promptly supply over ~4,234 Artillery pieces(Up to ~$8M per unit) over next 12 months, at a sustained rated of ~12/day deliverable, merely for AFU to continue in its current derelict state. Or, ~8,213 AFVs over next twelve months, being two full Tank/Mech Battalions delivered every three days ...
Materiel losses necessary to be supplied to FEBA daily, or every 10, 30, 60, 90, 180, 360 days merely to sustain current AFU status ?
AFU manpower, critically short, is meaningless, near zero combat power, without trained crew-served combined arms materiel ...
Translated, abbreviated, MOD Clobber list (03.02.2023)
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
382(+1) aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
206 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3008(+7) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.8)
403(+1) surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.2)
7723(+4) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 22.5)
1004(+1) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.9)
3988(+7 (10?)) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.6) and
8255(+6) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 24)
Comment:
Sustained Op tempo targeting 103 locs. Significant ammunition stores destroyed.
Three D-20 howitzers, a D-30 howitzer, two US M-777 howitzers, one MSTA-B howitzer, one "Acacia" self-propelled howitzer, two "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzers & one US M-142 "HIMARS" MBLRS were destroyed.
A Tochka-U tactical missile launcher & a Norwegian-made NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system were destroyed.
Six ammunition depots, a warehouse of artillery ammunition & a fuel storage facility were destroyed.
Two US counter-battery radar stations were destroyed.
RuAF fighter downed an AFU Mig-29.
MOD Clobber list (4.02.2023)
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
382 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
206 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3021(+13) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.8)
403 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.2)
7737(+14) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 22.5)
1007(+3) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.9)
3996(+8)(Corrected total ?) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.6) and
8262(+7) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 24)
Comment:
Sustained Op tempo targeting 108 locs.
Three BM-21 Grad MBRLS, a D-30 howitzer, three MSTA-B howitzer, an Acacia self-propelled howitzer
Three ammunition and a missile & artillery ammunition depot were destroyed.
One MBT destroyed.
Three US counter-battery radar stations were destroyed.
MOD Clobber list (05.02.2023)
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
382 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
206 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3023(+2) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.8)
403 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.2)
7750(+13) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 22.5)
1007 multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.9)
4003(+7) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.6) and
8272(+10) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 24)
Comment:
Exceptionally brief & terse MOD Summary.
Sustained, higher intensity Op tempo targeting 142 locs.
Two D-20 howitzers, three D-30 howitzers, a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer and an Acacia self-propelled howitzer were destroyed.
Two MBTs destroyed.
A warehouse of artillery ammunition was destroyed.
@2 rk you seen to be mixing up numbers from the russian and Ukrainian side.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 5 2023 17:54 utc | 40
I guess the Jagdtiger could be considered the German operational "super" tank as it was the heaviest armored weapon fielded and carried a 128 mm cannon. But it was more of a tank destroyer and mobile artillery than a main battle tank. The total number that were built was less than 100...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jagdtiger
Posted by: DakotaRog | Feb 5 2023 17:59 utc | 41
"Isn't sad that the figures for killed have one glaring omittion, ....
Where are all the figures for civilian deaths ? on both sides !"
Mark2 | Feb 5 2023 17:44 utc | 37
Media in the West are reluctant to compare alleged civilian casualty figures with those of the military. We know why, right. At the UN, one can quickly find the number of so far confirmed civilian casualties.
The presumed number of victims of fallen soldiers was mentioned in the media, but they were never discussed in any context that is common in conflict and peace research. There was never any classification within the framework of social-economic consequences for both societies. NOBODY in the West has been interested in the many dead young soldiers.
Alleged casualty figures have always been used to impute incompetence to the Russian army AND to give people the illusion that Ukraine could militarily win this war. This power of manipulation should not be underestimated. In Germany, such illusions about casualty figures had a major impact on the urgency of the tank debate.
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 5 2023 18:01 utc | 42
Mossad has NOT provided(Ignored) figures for known very significant numbers of AFU MIA (Assumed KIA) ?
Majority of dead 'NATO soldiers' very probably known Polish Regular formations in Ukrainian uniforms.
Mercs numbers KIA are reasonable given the large available global pool of ex servicemen. Particularly supremesists, gullible & those tempted by high payments on offer.
@2 rk you seen to be mixing up numbers from the russian and Ukrainian side.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 5 2023 17:54 utc | 41
I quoted some that look strange to me from that list.
Again, at around 900 armored, 400 artillery and 80 aircraft from RF, we should see completely new photos every day for a year, with no doubt that they belong to Ukr, and nato satellite photos at meter resolution, like those from Engels or Crimea, with fields of destroyed RF equipment in failed "human wave" attacks nato says that RF does.
Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2023 18:10 utc | 44
Addendum, Mine @ 14. former Israel FM, Benett's interview: " The West blocked Russia-Ukraine peace process."
Sputniknews has the details of the 5-hour interview, aired in Israel media, Feb. 4, 2023. Just Wow?
And Maria, RF MFA Spokeswoman, chirps it "another confession" [a] reference to earlier revelations by former Ukrainian, German, and leaders that the February 2015 Minsk agreements designed to lead to a lasting peace in the Donbass were just a sham designed to buy Kiev time to rearm.
For readers who can access, it's a must read
LINK
Extracts:Israel’s former prime minister has offered new insights into what may have happened.
The United States and its German and French allies halted efforts to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine crisis through a negotiated settlement in the spring of 2022, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has revealed.[.]
Taking a “third” position of agreeing to mediate, Bennett said the “trust” he had established with Russian President Vladimir Putin after their meeting in Sochi in 2021 “was a rare commodity,” and that Washington didn’t know then and still doesn’t know now how to communicate effectively with Moscow. “I don’t think there was anyone else who had the trust of both sides, maybe [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan,” Bennett said.[.]
‘Different Narratives’
“Two very different narratives” quickly emerged around the Ukraine crisis, according to the former Israeli prime minister.
“[Putin] had one narrative and perception, [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky and the West have another. The West sees Putin as an imperialist who wants to take over more places…and that if we don’t stop him in Ukraine he’ll go on to Poland and the Baltics.
Putin’s perception, as early as that meeting in Sochi, and even more so [in talks in March 2022], was that when the [Berlin] Wall came down we reached an agreement with NATO that they wouldn’t expand NATO and would not touch the countries enveloping Russia.You know, the Americans, on a side note, have a centuries old doctrine called the Monroe Doctrine, whereby hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, North and South America, belongs to the USA.
As early as 200 years ago, they didn’t want France and Britain there. ‘Don’t come here.’ And to a degree that’s Putin’s perception, ‘don’t come here, this is my backyard,’” Bennett said.“So I called the Americans, [Secretary of State Antony] Blinken, [President Joe] Biden and [Jake] Sullivan, the national security advisor, and I said ‘I have Putin’s ear, I can be a pipeline.’ …Zelensky called me and asked me to contact Putin. I have the protocol. He was in distress. Keep in mind, he knew that his days were numbered, that he would be killed. It wasn’t hard to kill him. The Russians had demands,[.]
Recalling his conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who expressed concerns over Germany’s energy security, Bennett said he had conveyed to the German leader that Putin was interested in a ceasefire.
“So I start talks back and forth, Putin-Zelensky, Zelensky-Putin… Drafts are exchanged, not only through us, directly as well. They’re in Belarus in a city called Gomel. There are two negotiation teams – Russian and Ukrainian, that the world looked down on, but I considered it a good thing that they were talking and exchanging,” Bennett said.
[.]“Everything I did was fully coordinated with Biden, with [French President Emmanuel] Macron, with [then-British Prime Minister] Boris Johnson, with Scholz, and obviously with Zelensky. I had a debate about [whether peace was possible] with the Americans, I think there was a chance. They said there was no chance,” the former prime minister recalled.
‘Big Concessions’ From Both Sides
“When I met with Putin, he made two big concessions that are obvious now,” Bennett said, referring to his March 5, 2022 trip to Moscow for face-to-face talks with the Russian president. “3-4 hours into the meeting, I asked ‘are you going to kill Zelensky?’ He said ‘I won’t kill Zelensky.’ After the meeting, in the car from the Kremlin to the airport, I contacted Zelensky by WhatsApp or Telegram to say, ‘I came out of a meeting, he’s not going to kill you’. ‘Are you sure?’ he asked. ‘100%, he won’t kill you.’ Two hours later Zelensky went to his office and filmed himself there on his phone,” recording his now well-known "I’m not afraid" selfie video.[.]
US, Allies Step In to Stop Peace
After speaking to Putin on March 5, Bennett traveled to Germany. “Because Germany is the player - Germany and France are the major players in Europe. And in order to procure an agreement, everyone has to do something…We sat with [Scholz’s] national security advisor… […] From there I think that together, we updated the Americans and Macron, and Boris Johnson.”
“Boris Johnson adopted the aggressive line. Macron and Scholz were more pragmatic, and Biden was both. And that’s it. Then I return to Israel and a negotiations marathon of drafts began…It went back and forth and then, I’ll say this in the broad sense, I think there was a legitimate decision by the West to keep striking Putin and not – I mean the more aggressive approach,” Bennett said.[.]
Bucha Breaking Point
Ultimately, the former Israeli leader said he felt about a 50/50 percent chance of a negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine being possible until the massacre at Bucha – the Kiev suburb where Ukrainian forces carried out a "cleansing" operation against Russia-sympathizing civilians after Russian troops withdrew in late March, but then blamed Moscow for the killings. “The Bucha massacre, once that happened, I said, it’s over,” Bennett said.
[original emphasis]
The Empire, USUK twins, are untrustworthy. In fact, they are proven terrorists.
Well then, onward to Odessa, that prime piece of real estate, where there will be an accounting for the criminals; and north to the Polish border.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 5 2023 18:23 utc | 45
The Sapfir Hotel in Kramatorsk may become the next target of a RF missile strike. After all, psyop scum seems to concentrate there right now. From TASS
According to verified information...the Kiev regime plans to undermine the buildings of the Kramatorsk drug rehab and cancer clinics (Alexey Tikhy Street, 31) and the first city hospital (Alexey Tikhy Street, 17) to accuse Russia of delivering an allegedly ‘targeted strike’ on civilian facilities," the headquarters said, adding that Western journalists accompanied by officers of the Ukrainian Security Service have already arrived in the city and have checked in at the Sapfir hotel.
Posted by: OttoE | Feb 5 2023 18:27 utc | 46
he fails to prove that a multipolar world leads to armed anarchy. Such a development should rather be regarded as positive.
But Holslag is right with his remark that the fence is off the dam. Great powers are no longer being lectured by Washington. The West should sing a little lower.
Translation is provided by the Google Translate took in the right upper corner.
Posted by: Paul-Robert | Feb 5 2023 15:43 utc | 6
Don't pay attention to what this guy is braying.
Posted by: Leon Pastis | Feb 5 2023 16:56 utc | 26
Leon, you are a bit self-contradicting. Holslag seem to be representative of the dominant "Western common wisdom", and succinct summary of Paul-Robert is a food for thought.
Number one: what is anarchy and is it always bad? Hobbes famously advocated autocracy, contrasting it with short, miserable and brutish life without it. He was inspired by lamentable experiences during English civil war, and there are definitely examples of this types of anarchy in the world today.
However, the ideal anarchy is that society shares enough values that consensual interactions are not regulated by a single authority, and people are "empowered" without arbitrary and selfish diktats. There are good historical examples of that, and also examples of highly creative periods with a big multitude of states: classical Greece, Italian renaissance, Chinese Spring and Autumns period. Centralized empires tend to have a creative period, in part inherited from preceding "anarchy", followed by decay and succumbing to decadence and in many cases, an implosion.
And we observe and discuss many signals and symptoms that International Liberal World Order is loosing creativity (e.g. prof. Holslag does not seem original in any way, Boeing forgot how to design planes), values (e.g. it mutated into "Rule based world order", more vague and much more arbitrary) and decays and we can observe signs of implosion, e.g. countries like India jumping out of that ship.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 5 2023 18:29 utc | 47
Things are brewing on the energy front. The price of a litre of diesel at the pump today is 15% (22 pence) higher than petrol (gasoline). I have been watching this differential and it is slowly creeping up. Diesel powers all trucks and trains and so on. Shortages? Or is the cost of the round trade (Russian crude==> India ==> diesel to Europe) pushing up the price? One wonders.
On the matter of Nato casualities in Ukraine. It is remarkably hard to get a handle on such here in the UK. If there are "service personnel" out there--and there are, see below--and they are being killed (likely if at/near the frontlines or engaged in military facilities), it is not reaching the news in any way that explains where the death occurred.
There is the recent article about a Royal Marines battalion that went to Ukraine on a hush-hush mission. So, there is public acknowledgement that at least some countries have sent service personnel.
About those RMs, I have a theory they are linked to those operations happening on the Black Sea. They were probably sent to safeguard the anti-ship missiles the UK sent. Or something such.
Posted by: Scots bloke | Feb 5 2023 18:38 utc | 48
no prince benefits from long war, sun tzu
especially with western field marshals like run this high profit gambit
Posted by: paddy | Feb 5 2023 18:39 utc | 49
From a historical perspective, Russia's brief departure from its traditional military superpower status in the 1990s and 2000s was not due to the defeat of the Russians on the battlefield by U.S. military power. It was largely due to the self-inflicted injuries and corruption of the ruling Soviet Communist elite, who, not content with their merely dominant political and cultural position, planned a capitalist restoration that would allow them to dominate economically. They quickly transformed themselves into "liberal" democrats and formed an anti-state oligarchy. That era is long gone. Now, Russia's military-industrial strength is increasingly visible. Now Washington is just preparing an excuse to say "we did our best." With nothing useful to send to 404 other than the transfer of the U.S. nuclear deterrent to the Kiev regime, the United States cannot have any significant impact on the outcome of the SMO through conventional means.
Posted by: JAYWANG | Feb 5 2023 18:47 utc | 50
from the MP minister michael gove in UK, refugee hosts have started recieving letters asking details of ukrainian males 18+. it seems they are the next unlucky winners of the great mincer. and hey easy peasy as they are just up the road from the NATO training grounds already
Posted by: hankster | Feb 5 2023 18:49 utc | 51
Posted by: paddy | Feb 5 2023 18:39 utc | 50
The Sun Tzu's "no benefit of long war" may also be applied to Nato side. Who is actually the attacker in this war? Ukraine has waged war in Donbass for 8+ years.
Posted by: OttoE | Feb 5 2023 18:27 utc | 47
Very interesting. In western vocabulary, an "assistance worker" or "reporter" may be equivalent to "mercenary" or "soldier".
Posted by: Scots bloke | Feb 5 2023 18:38 utc | 49
If I were to guess, those Royal marines were based in Ochakov special operation naval base, training ukie special forces on amphibious landings, operating underwater drones, missiles and such. Ochakov special operation base was supposedly hit on February 1st in artillery strike from the Kinburn peninsula and supposedly British "mercenaries" were eliminated according to RuMOD report.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 18:51 utc | 52
hankster @ 52
I wonder if they are going to be nabbed the minute they walk into the embassy. Military summary talked about this on the Russian side. Some countries are turning over those that fled the call up and some are not.
Posted by: circumspect | Feb 5 2023 18:53 utc | 53
The armed forces of Ukraine are preparing to use banned chemical weapons in Artemovsk.A Ukrainian "military blogger," Yuriy Madyar, published a video showing chemical munitions and "hinted" that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing to use banned munitions on facilities in Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
Earlier, "Madiar/Madyar" posted footage of him and members of his gang making drones with colorful cylinders. At that time, it was not known exactly what Ukrainian soldiers were using in their bombs, but now the blogger has independently confirmed that the containers contain chemical weapons.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32097
Russian Military correspondents reported on the use of chemical weapons by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the battles in the Avdiivka direction.According to reports from the field, drones dropped cylinders with a chemical poisoning agent on Russian positions near Novobakhmutovka. People hit by the chemical have been noted to be vomiting and cramping. According to military correspondents, similar "devices" have been previously shot down by Russian soldiers, and in contact with unprotected skin, the wreckage of the drones or the substances left chemical burns.
Earlier, a video with a similar device, as well as the cylinders with unknown substances, was published by the odious Ukrainian "military blogger," Magyar/Madyar. "Magyar" himself also confirmed that his unit uses shells with chemical warfare agents.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32102
Posted by: Down South | Feb 5 2023 18:57 utc | 54
✍️📄🇺🇦In Ukraine,reports of change of the Minister of Defense, the heads of the Interior Ministry and the SBU, - the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada and the media report▪️ The head of GUR Budanov will become the Minister of Defense instead of Reznikov;
▪️Reznikov will become Minister of Strategic Industries instead of Ryabikin;
▪️ Klimenko will become the head of the Interior Ministry (the last one died successfully, accidentally)
▪️ Malyuk is the head of the SBU.
The information has not yet been officially confirmed.
https://t.me/azmilitary11/36262
Posted by: Down South | Feb 5 2023 19:00 utc | 55
Derek @30
So you contend that Putin will face some difficulties. Imagine what it must be like for the set of Biden's handlers to contend with a rapidly declining economy, growing numbers of jab deaths and growing disgust on the part of the American population with how all this is happening. So why not address this larger situation rather than harping on Putin?
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 5 2023 19:21 utc | 56
GOT IT
for Readers boycotting YouTube:
Watch: "Revealing Ukraine" (2019) 1hr 29 mins
https://rumble.com/vwy6pm-revealing-ukraine.html
Oliver Stone's documentary film - sequel to "Ukraine on Fire" includes interviews V.V. Putin, Viktor Medvedchuk, UKR Opposition -Imo, Viktor is the guy to watch. He was arrested by Zelensky and recently swapped to Moscow. Also other familiar American faces of the 2014 - 2016 events.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 5 2023 19:25 utc | 57
Dakota Rog @38
Remarkable memory, you have. A bit envious here. It was perhaps 50 years ago that I read a book with a title something like "The Tigers are Burning" from which I drew my recollections. We learn a lot long after the first impressions have been retained.
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 5 2023 19:29 utc | 58
Regular barflies won't be troubled by the usual propaganda but will find some of the technical details interesting from this Australian company:
Posted by: Paul GV | Feb 5 2023 19:29 utc | 59
reply to 30
What I perceive is that Putin's job in ending the war is straight forward and simple with one exception: Odessa
They will take the Donbass and much else but I don't see how they take Odessa. The necessity is that they can't leave it to become a NATO base. Agreements with US/EU/NATO mean almost nothing so cold events on the ground must create a peace in Ukraine.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 5 2023 19:36 utc | 60
There's a reference above to the battle of Kursk and there have been a number of such references during the past year. It's a bit confusing because there were four separate battles of Kursk during WWII.
Posted by: Chas | Feb 5 2023 19:40 utc | 61
Piotr Berman@48
Your assessment of highly centralized and over-policed cultures are no longer capable of creative endeavors of all types appears to be historically apt.
The ruptured republic in which I live is a prime example, particularly due to the deliberate dumbing-down of the population, both through controlled mass media and the educational system, as actuated by John D. Rottenfeller with his funding of the school of education at Columbia University (ca 1920). That institution was to be and became the template for teachers colleges across the fruited plain to begin a process which deliberately dumbed down the masses on behalf of Rottenfeller's vanguard for the elite agenda.
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 5 2023 19:44 utc | 62
Death of the nationThrow your soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they will prefer death to flight - Sun Tzu
Ukraine society is in full psychosis mode, believing what they tell them to, not what their own eyes show them. Oxanas are waving to Mykolas while leaving to the front, Mykolas dying in droves on the front, honored with a flag of soon-to-be end state and ideology, as a last salute of the front. Tv news are reporting victories. Modestly, they admit, here and there, they retreated to shorten the front line. Few Oxanas are writing on networks about the dead and missing. But they cry for dead and ask for missing. They don't have the desire to end the war. And they are often dismissed. "Hysterical woman," they say. " Kill the orcs," they say. "We will regain our land," they say. Their sons, husbands, fathers, and relatives live four (4) hours in certain directions of the front.
They are winning! Future generations will with curiosity learn about this particular effect thrown upon the entire society. How it lost generations and future. They start recruiting children. Decapitation at its finest. You know that something is wrong when they have no problem sacrificing teenagers. But they will defend it - " Patriotic consciousness of our youth is the pride of every Ukrainian men and women; they are the role model to which Ukraine society should strive to." For the glory of the Trident flag!
Germans were smarter. Most of them knew when the end was near. True, some resisted to the very end, dreaming of "Wunderwaffe - miracle weapon" that will turn the tide. They also conscripted kids, creating the last line of defense, throwing them in front of the guns and tanks. They later count them as civilians when turned into flags. But smart Germans learn something from it. That it isn't worth it.
The people of Ukraine didn't read the book till the end. And how would they? They burned them. Or they simply forgot. We will remind them. Two T-34s stand in front of the Reichstag in Berlin, as an omen of what it was and a prophecy what it will be.
Ukraine looked for its identity in troubled years. It found it in the famous tradition of ", we are better than everyone else", In contrast to Germans, they even publicly admitted what they want to do with the "lower" races.
But we must not generalize. There are Mykula 1 and Oxana 1, who think that they are the master race. And there are Mykula 2 and Oxana 2 who are only looking to survive, whereas Mykyla 2 is forcefully mobilized and he will probably have the same faith as Mykula 1. That's why we are relatively cordial when they surrender. There is a possibility that we have Mykula 2 in our hands.
What are we going to do with Ukraine, in the end? We killed, we are killing and we are going to kill Mykulas 1. And then, we are going to kill some more As long as they are fighting us, they are doing us a favor. We are cleaning all those 1's which need to be cleaned. The battle for Aretomvsk proves our assertion. They could choose to surrender. They rejected it. Among them, there are numbers of 2's. They will end up the same. There was no war that didn't eat innocent.
But I have to wonder, what will Oxana 1 tell to 2 when they meet up near the flags? Would they go into small talk, accuse one another, or kept silent?
The death of a nation can be seen on its graveyards. For Ukraine, it's too late.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32106
Posted by: Down South | Feb 5 2023 19:47 utc | 63
slavyangrad via Down South @55
The longer this conflict goes on, the more that certain Uraine elements are losing their humanity with their inhumane employment of chemical and biological weaponry. The Puppet regime in Kiev needs to be erased and so does the entire notion of Ukraine as an independent political entity.
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 5 2023 19:53 utc | 64
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 5 2023 19:36 utc | 61
Ukraine is a sideshow - Moscow’s War Aims are far more comprehensive. These war aims are described in the Dec 2021 treaty proposal.
This ( global ) War has barely started.
Posted by: Exile | Feb 5 2023 19:55 utc | 65
I think it’s the Operation Citadel battle in 43, one of the most misrepresented battles in WW2, due to clashing historical narratives that change every couple of years.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 5 2023 19:55 utc | 66
Chas @62
Militarily speaking, the Battle of the Kursk Salient during the summer of '43 has long been the primary situation.
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 5 2023 19:56 utc | 67
I see we have a full complement of armchair Generals opining (and projecting) about the SMO this morning.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2023 20:07 utc | 68
Posted by: Lenny Henry | Feb 5 2023 17:09 utc | 30
This war is over by the end of this year, maybe before the Autumn
Optimist. The war has several fronts, including economic and diplomatic; these fronts will rumble on for many years.
Putin's popularity will depend on how it finishes and if the Russian people feel let down or not by the outcome.
That seems very much as if you are projecting Western political considerations onto the Russian electorate.
Basically, what the peace looks like after everything that has happened and all things have been considered.
I’m not sure that any of us here have a clue what “the peace” will look like. Not you, not me, not the West generally. I’ve an inkling it won’t be to everyone’s taste...
By now, many Russians have their own ideas what peace should look like.
In the best traditions of Wikipedia [citation needed]
It's not going to be easy for Putin to balance out those expectations.
Again, the projection of Western political values onto Russia, its leadership and its people. Are you one of the regime-changeniks that frequently pop up?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 5 2023 20:17 utc | 69
Larry Johnson's latest: "I do not think that Russia is waiting for a “Spring offensive.” A Russian offensive is underway on multiple fronts and Ukraine is paying a heavy toll."
Is The War in Ukraine Nearing The CULMINATING POINT?
[.]The culminating point in military strategy is the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations.If you set aside emotion and consider the current situation unfolding in Ukraine, the evidence shows that Kiev’s army and government is flailing and moving backwards. Without support from the United States and NATO, Ukraine does not have the manpower, munitions, tanks, artillery, air craft, financial resources and industrial capability to stop Russia. Even with more Western support trickling in, Ukraine will still lack the military power to staunch the Russian advance.
I am mystified by the Western analysts who are downplaying the Russian offense in the Donbass along the defensive line that stretches from Bakhmut in the south to Seversk in the north as some sort of sideshow with no strategic importance. I disagree. I do not think that Russia is waiting for a “Spring offensive.” A Russian offensive is underway on multiple fronts and Ukraine is paying a heavy toll.
Here are some of the summary reports describing the action in the last couple of days:[.]
LINK Full article.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 5 2023 20:24 utc | 70
Again, the projection of Western political values onto Russia, its leadership and its people. Are you one of the regime-changeniks that frequently pop up?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 5 2023 20:17 utc | 71
###########
The Western lense on Asian approaches is one of my pet peeves. And that isn't even going to the enormous differences between the Indians, Chinese and Russians.
I can't wait (sarcasm) for war with China to kick off, and then suddenly we'll have hundreds of Chinese internet Generals commenting on how the conflict is going, and how Xi was always a WEF sleeper agent for Israel. 🙄
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2023 20:31 utc | 71
Zaluzhny reported the death of 257 thousand of Ukrainian soldiers
Former Pentagon adviser Colonel Douglas McGregor shared secret data on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“When Zaluzhny was in the US, he met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Milley. He secretly told them that Ukraine had lost 257,000 people since the beginning of the conflict,” the retired officer shared.
Earlier it was reported about 232 thousand dead militants since the start of the special operation.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32137
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 20:33 utc | 72
This week's column by Crooke is now available, "EU’s ‘Ukraine Derangement’ blights the entire Middle East". IMO, there are two significant paragraphs within Crooke's column, the first relates to a comment I made several days ago and expanded upon at my VK:
"The economic benefits of discounted energy, China’s investment capacities, and sound money are the ingredients for a new, Asia-wide industrial revolution, whilst the West faces its defining choice -- of relapse back into the bust/boom pattern (with ‘bust’ being the odds on prospect) -- or paradigmatic change, for which the political class is unprepared."
And then there's this further development in what we've been discussing for several years:
"Just as the consequences of massive sanctions on Russian energy and the banning of Russian banks from SWIFT were not thought through in advance by Washington, so too, are the consequences flowing from the next phase of the wider ‘financial war’ -- the intent to implement a simple, gold-linked digital currency -for real-time ‘clearing’ between Asian Central Banks - superseding earlier notions of a commodity-linked trade currency, which are routinely dismissed in the West. "
As I noted on the WiR thread, Lavrov's in Iraq today and tomorrow and the above will certainly be discussed along with what the next paragraph deals with. What Exile suggested @66 goes well beyond Russia acting solo. Some aspects of the wider goal of erasing Outlaw US Empire hegemony are already in motion. It's entirely possible the anticipated Spring Offensive won't happen in Ukraine but will be a global action aimed at curtailing NATO's ability to wage war via hybrid means.
Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the Joint Declaration by Russia/China that forms the basis for the geopolitical rearrangement that is linked in English instead of Russian so it can be read by all barflies. If it's not in your archive, it ought to be.
I think the “Mossad” numbers are probably well in the ballpark. There’s also a huge number of Ukrainian wounded, some would be of the relatively minor variety but not all. There’s the “anonymous source” reporting out now that Zaluzhny told US officials 250,000 lost. That would add 100k to the “Mossad” figure which is probably realistic for severely wounded. Not all of the remaining 300+ thousand wounded will be actually fit or immediately return. If that’s close to 100k, then it’s 50% of the supposed 700k man army Ukraine has put in the field. Not all of those can be performing combat operations.
There’s a reason the Ukrainians are pushing defensive reserves from place to place.
I’d guess the Russian killed number is too low. Actual RAF killed probably isn’t a lot higher, but that wouldn’t include LDNR, national guard or Wagner/other PMC/volunteer units. Russian equipment losses might be biased a little high but I suspect not by much. It’s been a hard fought conflict.
Posted by: Lex | Feb 5 2023 20:34 utc | 74
The following link details much of the template used by NATO to use Ukraine to fight Russia. Very detailed and accurate except for underestimating Russian Military strength
DEFENSE CONCEPT FOR UKRAINE
https://www.thepostil.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/A-Defense-Concept-for-Ukraine-Posen-1994.pdf
Posted by: Krollchem | Feb 5 2023 20:37 utc | 75
West of England Andy @ 71
Welocome to the bar, haven't seen your name here before, we need all the help we can get.
And I must say its good to see someone else from the west country here. Particularly talking sense.
------
Canvassing local opinion people still kind of grudgingly support Uqeraine, no where near the same frenzied blind enthusiasm.
But my point is, most of people asked are aware they are not being told the truth by the media or government.
That I think is a big step in the direction of sanity.
I encoarage them to listen to both sides of this conflict and use their own judgement.
Also not to rely on misguided selve interest.
I have some sucsse.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 5 2023 20:39 utc | 76
“When Zaluzhny was in the US, he met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Milley. He secretly told them that Ukraine had lost 257,000 people since the beginning of the conflict,” the retired officer shared.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32137
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 5 2023 20:40 utc | 77
Considering that Saddam remained steady as a rock 12 years after his 1991 defeat and the conclusions of the Rand reports, the predictions of an internal collapse in Russia following a possible defeat look like a war of opinion rather than a realistic possibility.
A better explanation is projection: the West's ruling class fears that a defeat in Ukraine would lead to mass discontent.
The correct way is to read the habitual/compulsive projections of people (including MSM) who always disregard evidence and logic from the opposite side.
Posted by: Colin | Feb 5 2023 20:43 utc | 78
The proxy war in Ukraine was a perfect opportunity to start mass scale historical revisionism, which is going to help the war against Beijing and Moscow for so long in effort to conserve American hegemony. That's a great time to start whitewashing Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, while focusing on Russian crimes as that helps demonizing both socialism and Russians, while moving USSR to the bad side of history and keeping United States and United Kingdom on the good of history.
Posted by: Bopbop | Feb 5 2023 20:43 utc | 79
Posted by: b | Feb 5 2023 15:18 utc | 1
If this is Mossad intelligence, I can celebrate the demise of the pseudo-"Israeli" state and the liberation of Palestine in advance.
Posted by: Colin | Feb 5 2023 20:44 utc | 80
@45 rk
Oh OK, well neither side has photos for hardly any kills. There's some but I think maybe most stuff goes undocumented. Might be dangerous to try and even to release sensitive military information.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 5 2023 20:50 utc | 81
while moving USSR to the bad side of history and keeping United States and United Kingdom on the good of history.
Posted by: Bopbop | Feb 5 2023 20:43 utc | 81
Unfortunately there are still many here who do not understand that the collapse of the Soviet Union led to Russia's current difficulties (apparently Ukraine would not have been independent under the Soviet Union), but are blinded by anti-communist hatred.
This is just as stupid as the anarchists and "socialists" who even support sending weapons to Ukraine.
The main difficulties in Eastern Europe at the moment all come from the collapse of the Eastern bloc.
Even sensible liberal proponents of the "Nordic model" or "mixed economy" should have supported the Soviet Union. Historically, Sweden and Japan had the most income equality and still healthy economic growth in the 1980s, and after the collapse of the Eastern bloc, these countries fell into economic depression and hiking inequality.
Obviously, if there was no threat from the Eastern bloc, why would the empire leave these countries alone?
Posted by: Colin | Feb 5 2023 20:56 utc | 82
Interesting to note the following re. Mossad data.
When compared to MOD numbers, they are
-underestimating aircraft (308 vs 360)
-overestimating air defense systems (497 vs 380)
-underestimating armored vehicles (7500 vs 6300)
-overestimating field artillery and mortars (7360 vs 3800-3900).
The Mossad data is 13th January 2023 so adjusted RuMOD numbers with a few percents. There could be some definition differences too, especially in armored and fighting vehicle section. The Russians also count soft-skinned vehicles to some of their number, meaning converted soft skinned civilian vehicles for military use.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 20:58 utc | 83
With this mindset, Israeli Khzaars are walking on thin ice with Russia.
In the afterlife, if not before fallen, for these criminals there is a shortage of old pianos for the job at hand.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 5 2023 16:02 utc | 14
In my opinion, there are two types of players here. Bennet is absolutely "Israel First", no other loyalties. And then there are "mental Khazars" who do not care about Israel all that much, but they surely want to restore the Kaganate, they already have Kagans, but, sadly, without the Kaganate, so they have to sulk in some paltry humiliating jobs like armchair warrior in Washington think tanks. If does give some subsistence, but no prestige of a suzerain ruler.
Keep in mind that because of Russia, the two causes are often in conflict. Putin can stand Israel but not Khazarian restoration etc. and he has cards to play.
As recently the new (and once) ruler of Israel made pro-Kaganate moves, Bennet has more than one reason to discredit them by discrediting him (the current capo di tutti Israeli) and them (mental Khazars).
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 5 2023 20:59 utc | 84
aristodemos 57
All that is a given surely. The American public are daft and will believe anything. Let me put it another way. How do you think this will end. How will you feel if the ending doesn't meet your expectations whilst being in such a domineering position to dictate terms ?
It's not going to be easy to balance opinion. If And it's a big IF the majority of Russians wanted Putin to go further. What do the opinion polls say ?
Let's say for talking sake, Putin stops at the borders of the new territories. Yet, 70% of Russia public opinion wanted him to go to the Dnieper and take back Odessa ? Public opinion matters and regime change might take place after all ?
It's a very tricky balancing act deciding how this should end. Complete bonkers to suggest otherwise.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Feb 5 2023 20:59 utc | 85
@ Kareem | Feb 5 2023 15:55 utc | 10 and @ Kareem | Feb 5 2023 15:56 utc | 12
you come to a lot of wrong conclusions based on your belief that putin needs to kill zelensky... i see it just the opposite.. what good would killing zelensky do? he will just get replaced with some other puppet for the western agenda here... i am not buying your conclusion on putin and etc, one tiny bit.. explain what good killing zelensky would do?? nada.. that is what i think.. only a fool would waste time with that approach.. come to think of it - it is the american approach! kill soleimani and iran falls apart.. nope.. just the opposite... this approach of murdering heads of state is such a lame ass boneheaded approach, i don't know how anyone thinks it has any merit.. that is what i take from that line of thinking..
Posted by: james | Feb 5 2023 21:06 utc | 86
Exile 66
As Brian Berlatic has pointed out in how he thinks this might end using Syria as the example. You'll probably end up in the disappointed camp. Brian thinks there will be huge disappointment if Putin uses the Syrian model to end the conflict.
Would be interesting to see any opinion polls if they have been carried out. To see how the majority of Russians want this to end. Anybody got any ?
Posted by: Derek Henry | Feb 5 2023 21:10 utc | 87
DakotaRog @ 38
From what I have read the most they ever had operationally ready was only 77 along the whole of the Eastern Front.
Posted by: circumpsect | Feb 5 2023 21:21 utc | 88
Posted by: james | Feb 5 2023 21:06 utc | 87
Assassinating political leaders is often frowned up - even the killing of Admiral Yamamoto during WW2. And wasn't there a a story that the Americans stopped the Ukrainians trying to kill Gerasimov? Maybe one set of leaders regard another set of leaders as being part of their club. More realistically, it is counterproductive, especially when you are dealing with people who are making mistakes. In fact at this stage, the Russians would probably want to protect Zelensky. I wouldn't be surpised if a political faction in Ukraine is planning to assassinate Zelensky, and pin the blame on Russia.
Posted by: Technophobe | Feb 5 2023 21:21 utc | 89
@ Technophobe | Feb 5 2023 21:21 utc | 90
thanks... i agree with all that you say... it makes no sense, but after watching and listening to much of the naftali bennett interview, i realize this is also bennetts thinking - you take out leaders you don't like or want in power... bennetts thinking is the same boneheaded thinking that seems to drive usa thinking... it is really fucking dumb... so that is why bennett in the video is kind of surprised with putins response on not taking out zelensky.. and absolutely - you are correct.. they is much more value from the usa and friends taking out zelensky here and it has been this way for some time.. more propaganda bullshit claims that russia did it when in fact any thinking person will know the west did it... same deal the nordstream pipeline... apparently russia did it.. what bullshit and yet many ignoramus's in the west believe this!!
Posted by: james | Feb 5 2023 21:27 utc | 90
@Technophobe | Feb 5 2023 21:21 utc | 90
And wasn't there a a story that the Americans stopped the Ukrainians trying to kill Gerasimov?US Americans have doubts about killing leaders of other countries?
What about Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gadaffi, Soleimani to name just a few recent victims..
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 5 2023 21:29 utc | 91
Fortunately, the RoW doesn't read Western twisted history, so that twisting will be for a very small audience that soon won't be able to afford such books given the coming reality that cannot be twisted.
Just about everybody is saying they now have to take Kharkiv in order to protect Luhansk.
I'm going to go with and put my money on what the majority of opinion polls say within Russia. How public opinion wants it to end. Over his term Putin has paid very close attention to public opinion. Don't see a reason why this time would be any different.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Feb 5 2023 21:32 utc | 93
Re. Syria scenario - in a way it looks like it's going to that. It will stalemate any political moves (joining Nato) by the Kiev puppet regime, pretty much forever. The nazi factions Azov and Kraken, like ISIS will be pushed into a very small enclave in the west or into Poland itself.
I'm now looking this thing to not officially end ever, and the process to continue for potentially a decade. There is no one to talk to in the West or Kiev regime.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2023 21:34 utc | 94
From Gordon Hahn's article:
Russia now has available in and around Ukraine 5-600,000 regular troops, almost none of which have been used so far, with Moscow having been relying on the DPR and LNR forces, the Wagner troops, Chechens, and massive attacks from the air by artillery, rockets, drones and such in previous phases of the war.
Exactly as I said in previous threads - and was, of course, disputed by people who can't read what I wrote.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 5 2023 21:36 utc | 95
What about Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gadaffi, Soleimani to name just a few recent victims..
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 5 2023 21:29 utc | 92
---
What about Olof Palme?
Posted by: Nobody | Feb 5 2023 21:36 utc | 96
@ unimperator | Feb 5 2023 20:58 utc | 85
MOD Clobber List for 13.01.23:
372 aircraft,
200 helicopters,
2876 unmanned aerial vehicles,
400 surface-to-air missile systems, (Each AD Radar destroyed, no(Soviet pre '91) spares/replacements, effectively: Unclaimed Kills)
7495 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
982 multiple rocket launchers,
3820 field artillery guns and mortars, and
8027 special military vehicles.
You're welcome.
Piotr Berman@48
Thank you for your discussion of anarchist values.
You wrote "...International Liberal World Order is losing creativity..."
Yes, that's the inevitable outcome of a system based on individualism.
Progress is not achieved by individuals; progress is always community-driven. Talented individuals can only give expression to their talent when there is community support.
Posted by: Steve from Oz | Feb 5 2023 21:43 utc | 98
@ Norwegian | Feb 5 2023 21:29 utc | 92
What about Patrice Lumumba & UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld ?
BoJo is just a scrap dealer, like Cameron, dealing in second-hand , worn-out scrap ideas which he titivates up sells cheap, knowing that the idea won't work and won't be able be repaired. The vacuum of leadership in the West is caused by algorithms rights in the voting system cancelling the wishes of the people, and imposing US alt right wing dogma.
Put all the Tories together in a metal crusher to be recycled in China. They haven't come up with a useful idea between them apart from privatising what socialism provided for the people and flogging it for their own pockets.
How can a group of people whose only idea is to turn the public wealth into private wealth offer an un-biased idea on war with Russia. All they want to is to privatise Russia, as they have already done with Ukraine, Bulgaria, Poland etc.
These political analysts talking out of their backsides as if BoJo or Sunak or Trump or Biden EVER had a useful idea.
Posted by: Giyane | Feb 5 2023 21:47 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
I put this link into the Week in Review but will leave the translation here.
It is from an Iran friendly Alawite site in Turkey which often does serious investigative reporting. I think the numbers are reasonable and likely correct.
İddia: MOSSAD’a göre Ukrayna ve Rusya kayıpları (in Turkish)
Machine translation:
Posted by: b | Feb 5 2023 15:18 utc | 1