From the Reuters summary of Saturday, February 19, 2022:
Russia's President Vladimir Putin was set to oversee exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces on Saturday as Western leaders gathered in Munich, fearful that he could order troops massed on Ukraine's border to invade at any time.
Russian-backed separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine declared a full military mobilisation, a day after ordering women and children to evacuate to Russia, citing the threat of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces. Kyiv flatly denied the accusation and Washington said it was part of Russia's plan to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine. read more
Multiple explosions could be heard on Saturday morning in the north of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a Reuters witness said.
…
Separatist authorities on Friday announced plans to evacuate around 700,000 people, citing fears of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces – an accusation Kyiv flatly denied.Less than 7,000 people had been evacuated from Donetsk as of Saturday morning, the local emergencies ministry said. Russian news agencies said later 10,000 evacuees had arrived in Russia.
…
Hours after the evacuation announcement, a jeep exploded outside a rebel government building in the city of Donetsk and Russian news agencies said two explosions hit Luhansk, one of the main cities in Ukraine's breakaway People's Republic of Luhansk, and part of a gas pipeline in the area caught fire.
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was at the annual Munich Security Conference where he meet U.S. VP Kamala Harris, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and others. He also held a speech which included this obvious lie:
Ukraine consistently implements the Normandy agreements and the Minsk agreements. Their foundation is the unquestionable recognition of the territorial integrity and independence of our state. We seek a diplomatic settlement of the armed conflict. Note: solely on the basis of international law.
The Minsk agreements, which the UN Security Council endorsed, require Kiev to negotiate with the Donbas government and to implement new legislation:
The [first] agreement failed to stop fighting, and was thus followed with a revised and updated agreement, Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015. This agreement consisted of a package of measures, including a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to certain areas of Donbas and restoring control of the state border to the Ukrainian government.
The former German chancellor Angela Merkel and the former French president François Hollande Kiev have since confirmed that Kiev did not attempt to fulfill the agreement but used it to win time to train and arm its military.
Zelensky also said this:
I want to believe that the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 will be more effective than the Budapest Memorandum.
Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly – we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this.
Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees.
Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.
The Budapest Memorandum gives very vague security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nuclear weapons that the Soviet Union had stationed in that state. (Ukraine had tried to break the codes that protected the weapons but did not succeed.) Ukraine's membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty followed from the Budapest Memorandum. When Zelenski says the "package decisions of 1994 are in doubt" he threatens to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and to pursue nuclear weapons.
Ukraine has several nuclear energy reactors, access to nuclear fuel, well trained nuclear experts and missile technology expertise. It might take a year or two but Ukraine could indeed build deployable nuclear weapons.
The mentioning of an eventual denunciation of the Budapest Memorandum during the Munich Security Conference was taken by Russia as a threat.
The Donetsk News Agency reported that western Donetsk was, since February 17, under heavy fire:
The shelling incidents were reported from 11.47 a.m. until 12.22 p.m., the total of 46 mortar and grenade launcher rounds hit the city. The fire originated from the direction of Krasnogorovka.
The DPR has been under attack since 5.30 a.m. today, a wide range of weapons is used.
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of Saturday, February 19 2022 and Sunday, February 20 2022 without separating both days in its verbal description. However the graphic showing the number of observed incidents attached to the report separates both days. The number of total ceasefire violations and explosions on Saturday was again increased from the previous day. Artillery exchanges took place along many parts of the front.
In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the SMM recorded 2,158 ceasefire violations, including 1,100 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the Mission recorded 1,073 ceasefire violations, including 926 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 975 ceasefire violations in the region.
Both sides continued to position heavy weapons:
Withdrawal of weapons
In government-controlled areas of Donetsk region, the Mission saw four howitzers in violation of withdrawal lines. It also spotted 12 howitzers, one surface-to-air missile system and one multiple launch rocket system in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Beyond withdrawal lines but outside designated storage sites, the SMM saw 41 tanks and 14 howitzers in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including in two training areas.
Indications of military and military-type presence in the security zone
The Mission saw nine armoured combat vehicles in government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as five armoured combat vehicles in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk region.
On 19 February, while in Prokhorivka (government-controlled, 53km south of Donetsk), the Mission saw one light utility truck (GAZ-66) equipped with antennas, assessed as used for flying mid-range UAVs, stationary about 100m north of the road. It also observed two Ukrainian Armed forces soldiers near the truck.
The evacuation of civilians from the Donbas region continued:
Gatherings of people and convoys in Donetsk and Luhansk regions
Over the reporting period, in various locations in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Mission saw people gathering and several convoys of cars and buses (some of which bearing signs with “evacuation” written on them) driving eastwards with passengers (mostly women, children, and the elderly).
On Saturday the numbers of ceasefire violations did increase over those on Friday by some 30%. The number of recorded explosions held steady.
bigger
The map shows ceasefire violations in yellow, orange to red colors. Most of these appear on the side of the Donbas republics. The source of most of the ceasefire violations, like noise of shooting or explosions recorded by cameras, drones or heard by the observers, is listed as 'undetermined'.
The map shows explosions, as small black dots, on both sides of the ceasefire line for Saturday and Sunday. While only few of the hundreds of explosions were located and marked on the map a count of the black dots shows some evenness with 25 impacts marked on the Donbas side and 28 on the government controlled side of the ceasefire line.
bigger
