The Buildup To War In Ukraine - Saturday, February 19, 2022
From the Reuters summary of Saturday, February 19, 2022:
Russia's President Vladimir Putin was set to oversee exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces on Saturday as Western leaders gathered in Munich, fearful that he could order troops massed on Ukraine's border to invade at any time.Russian-backed separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine declared a full military mobilisation, a day after ordering women and children to evacuate to Russia, citing the threat of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces. Kyiv flatly denied the accusation and Washington said it was part of Russia's plan to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine. read more
Multiple explosions could be heard on Saturday morning in the north of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a Reuters witness said.
...
Separatist authorities on Friday announced plans to evacuate around 700,000 people, citing fears of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces - an accusation Kyiv flatly denied.Less than 7,000 people had been evacuated from Donetsk as of Saturday morning, the local emergencies ministry said. Russian news agencies said later 10,000 evacuees had arrived in Russia.
...
Hours after the evacuation announcement, a jeep exploded outside a rebel government building in the city of Donetsk and Russian news agencies said two explosions hit Luhansk, one of the main cities in Ukraine's breakaway People's Republic of Luhansk, and part of a gas pipeline in the area caught fire.
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was at the annual Munich Security Conference where he meet U.S. VP Kamala Harris, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and others. He also held a speech which included this obvious lie:
Ukraine consistently implements the Normandy agreements and the Minsk agreements. Their foundation is the unquestionable recognition of the territorial integrity and independence of our state. We seek a diplomatic settlement of the armed conflict. Note: solely on the basis of international law.
The Minsk agreements, which the UN Security Council endorsed, require Kiev to negotiate with the Donbas government and to implement new legislation:
The [first] agreement failed to stop fighting, and was thus followed with a revised and updated agreement, Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015. This agreement consisted of a package of measures, including a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to certain areas of Donbas and restoring control of the state border to the Ukrainian government.
The former German chancellor Angela Merkel and the former French president François Hollande Kiev have since confirmed that Kiev did not attempt to fulfill the agreement but used it to win time to train and arm its military.
Zelensky also said this:
I want to believe that the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 will be more effective than the Budapest Memorandum.Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this.
Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees.
Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.
The Budapest Memorandum gives very vague security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nuclear weapons that the Soviet Union had stationed in that state. (Ukraine had tried to break the codes that protected the weapons but did not succeed.) Ukraine's membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty followed from the Budapest Memorandum. When Zelenski says the "package decisions of 1994 are in doubt" he threatens to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and to pursue nuclear weapons.
Ukraine has several nuclear energy reactors, access to nuclear fuel, well trained nuclear experts and missile technology expertise. It might take a year or two but Ukraine could indeed build deployable nuclear weapons.
The mentioning of an eventual denunciation of the Budapest Memorandum during the Munich Security Conference was taken by Russia as a threat.
The Donetsk News Agency reported that western Donetsk was, since February 17, under heavy fire:
The shelling incidents were reported from 11.47 a.m. until 12.22 p.m., the total of 46 mortar and grenade launcher rounds hit the city. The fire originated from the direction of Krasnogorovka.The DPR has been under attack since 5.30 a.m. today, a wide range of weapons is used.
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of Saturday, February 19 2022 and Sunday, February 20 2022 without separating both days in its verbal description. However the graphic showing the number of observed incidents attached to the report separates both days. The number of total ceasefire violations and explosions on Saturday was again increased from the previous day. Artillery exchanges took place along many parts of the front.
In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the SMM recorded 2,158 ceasefire violations, including 1,100 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the region.In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the Mission recorded 1,073 ceasefire violations, including 926 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 975 ceasefire violations in the region.
Both sides continued to position heavy weapons:
Withdrawal of weaponsIn government-controlled areas of Donetsk region, the Mission saw four howitzers in violation of withdrawal lines. It also spotted 12 howitzers, one surface-to-air missile system and one multiple launch rocket system in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Beyond withdrawal lines but outside designated storage sites, the SMM saw 41 tanks and 14 howitzers in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including in two training areas.
Indications of military and military-type presence in the security zone
The Mission saw nine armoured combat vehicles in government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as five armoured combat vehicles in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk region.
On 19 February, while in Prokhorivka (government-controlled, 53km south of Donetsk), the Mission saw one light utility truck (GAZ-66) equipped with antennas, assessed as used for flying mid-range UAVs, stationary about 100m north of the road. It also observed two Ukrainian Armed forces soldiers near the truck.
The evacuation of civilians from the Donbas region continued:
Gatherings of people and convoys in Donetsk and Luhansk regionsOver the reporting period, in various locations in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Mission saw people gathering and several convoys of cars and buses (some of which bearing signs with “evacuation” written on them) driving eastwards with passengers (mostly women, children, and the elderly).
On Saturday the numbers of ceasefire violations did increase over those on Friday by some 30%. The number of recorded explosions held steady.
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The map shows ceasefire violations in yellow, orange to red colors. Most of these appear on the side of the Donbas republics. The source of most of the ceasefire violations, like noise of shooting or explosions recorded by cameras, drones or heard by the observers, is listed as 'undetermined'.
The map shows explosions, as small black dots, on both sides of the ceasefire line for Saturday and Sunday. While only few of the hundreds of explosions were located and marked on the map a count of the black dots shows some evenness with 25 impacts marked on the Donbas side and 28 on the government controlled side of the ceasefire line.
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Posted by b on February 19, 2023 at 15:18 UTC | Permalink
next page »Ukraine is already defeated at Bakhmut. The West has known this for weeks. Yet, their media will not report much on this.
Soon Bakhmut will be operationally encircled and then encircled. Operational encirclement means that not all roads are cut off into and from Bakhmut. Yet, the few roads that remain are under constant Russian monitoring and under fire control. Encirclement means all roads into/out of Bakhmut are controlled by the Russians.
I expect to hear the announcement of both "operational encirclement and then encirclement within the next 10 days.
Bakhmut is where the major Russian offensive is happening. I suspect that as soon as Bakhmut is encircled, the fighting will be transferred to the regular Russian army while the more aggressive Russian troops such as Wagner will continue to advance West and North West of Bakhmut.
This approach could quickly unravel the Ukrainian defenses that would not be expecting such a fast advance upon their defensive lines. A rout may be in the making in which the Ukrainian lines melt.
This week will be most interesting to see if Bakhmut comes under either operational encirclement or encirclement.
I suspect that Russia will launch soon after it takes and secures the Donbas. I see what happens in Donbas as the key to determining how much time is left.
Posted by: young | Feb 19 2023 15:30 utc | 2
The basic problem concerns "sovereign states."
They either are or they're not.
For two examples, North Korea and Iran are not fully sovereign states because the US doesn't like them, so we see the JCPOA and US/UN sanctions which severely limit their sovereignty.
The UN Charter: "The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members"
That's the dictum that Ukraine goes by when it says 'screw Minsk' and 'destroy Donbass.'
And the US backs it up.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 15:39 utc | 3
Don Bacon, I think you will find N Korea and Iran are Sovereign States by any definition. Yet there is no evidence any of the 50 states comprising the USA with notable exception of Hawaii ever were or are Sovereign States.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 19 2023 15:47 utc | 4
Russia abducting Ukrainian children?
"Ukraine declared a full military mobilisation, a day after ordering women and children to evacuate to Russia"
And this is the truth behind the accusation that Russia is abducting Ukrainian children and 'Russifying them'. They are refugees, not abductees.
Telling lies is okay as long as it makes you hate people in other countries, it's the Christian way.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Feb 19 2023 15:56 utc | 5
Don Bacon @3
North Korea and Iran are states whose sovereignty the US is constantly impinging upon, making it difficult for them to protect their sovereignty. They remain however sovereign.
The case of Germany, for example, Canada or Ukraine is different-they are not sovereign because they have surrendered their sovereignty to the United States.
On the other hand the political class of North Korea and Iran has to educate itself and live among the people, whereas US puppets can retire, as 'visiting scholars' to Think Tanks in Washington and enjoy luxurious retirement is Florida, provided, of course that they don't mind the smell.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2023 15:56 utc | 6
Yesterday, I saw an olive drab Tesla with a Ukrainian license plate (on the back) and then a Maserati SUV with 2 Ukrainian flags near the Daytona International speedway in Florida. I didn't know that the Ukrainians were such big NASCAR fans.
Posted by: Adam Frank | Feb 19 2023 16:14 utc | 7
@ bevin | Feb 19 2023 15:56 utc | 6
North Korea and Iran are states whose sovereignty the US is constantly impinging upon, making it difficult for them to protect their sovereignty. They remain however sovereign.
No they don't, but Ukraine does.
Therein lies the basic problem described in my #3.
sovereign: A sovereign power lies beyond the powers of others to interfere. An example of sovereignty is a king who can rule his people without any interference from other countries.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 16:17 utc | 8
#Paul Greenwood
You are quite correct about Hawai’i formerly being a sovereign country (Kingdom of Hawai’i) before being overthrown by American planters which opened the way to annexation. However, Texas was also a sovereign country officially known as the Republic of Texas and was independent for 9 years until it was admitted to the Union which triggered the Mexican-American war. There was the Bear Republic which was a short-lived sovereign state (only a part of California at that) and the Republic of West Florida (Actually Eastern Louisiana) which lasted nearly two weeks before being annexed by the US.
Posted by: Euskal Tell | Feb 19 2023 16:18 utc | 9
Don [email protected]
"A sovereign power lies beyond the powers of others to interfere."
There is no such state. The US is subject to the interference of numerous other states-Israel, Saudi Arabia, both interfere openly to influence the way on which Congress and the President exercise their powers.
As to Ukraine is there anyone in Ukraine who would claim that their state is sovereign?
The cases of Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea are different- imperialists interfere constantly in their affairs but they survive such interference, just as the US does, and retain their sovereignty
Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2023 16:25 utc | 10
Adam [email protected]
Isn't it more likely that there are NATO ultra-fans among the crowds who follow NASCAR?
Posted by: bevin | Feb 19 2023 16:28 utc | 11
@ bevin | Feb 19 2023 16:25 utc | 10
If a country has serious restraints put upon it, it is no longer sovereign. . .by definition.
As to Ukraine is there anyone in Ukraine who would claim that their state is sovereign?
Blinken has repeatedly indicated that Ukraine is sovereign and can't be subjected to restraints when it wants to join NATO, for example. That's the position of Ukraine also; of course they pick up on the US cues regarding sovereignty. Ukraine controls negotiation decisions for example.
Sovereignty is the crux of the problem as described in my #3.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 16:35 utc | 12
Today, February 19, is also the anniversary of when Khrushchev transferred Crimea into the Ukraine SSR, back in 1954.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 19 2023 16:36 utc | 13
January 2023
Arestovich critical of Zelinski.. is this a sign of a change of his views about his country's future. in 2019 he predicted the war in ukraine
Posted by: Virgile | Feb 19 2023 16:45 utc | 14
@ too scents | Feb 19 2023 16:36 utc | 13
In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev stupidly gave Ukraine a gift: Crimea, which includes Russia's only warm-water port in a strategically important location. The transfer merited only a paragraph in Pravda, the official Soviet newspaper, on Feb. 27, 1954. The story was one long sentence and dense with detail. Here's what it said:
"Decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet transferring Crimea Province from the Russian Republic to the Ukraine Republic, taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic ties between Crimea Province and the Ukraine Republic, and approving the joint presentation of the Presidium of the Russian Republic Supreme Soviet and the Presidium of the Ukraine Republic Supreme Soviet on the transfer of Crimea Province from the Russian Republic to the Ukraine Republic.". . .here
Putin wisely got it back.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 16:49 utc | 15
The former German chancellor Angela Merkel and the former French president François Hollande Kiev have since confirmed that Kiev did not attempt to fulfill the agreement but used it to win time to train and arm its military.
At the time of the war not only was Ukraine the largest army in Europe it was trained and armed to NATO standards. It was the best proxy NATO ever had and it has been dismantled by Russia using just a fraction of the resources available to Putin. It is just the constant flow of money and materiel that is keeping Ukraine afloat.
You would this would give pause to thought in NATO but Stoltenberg alarmed at a RF victory said
🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺"Some worry that our support to Ukraine risks triggering escalation,let me be clear,there are no risk-free options,but the biggest risk of all is if Putin wins" - Jens Stoltenberg
https://t.me/azmilitary11/38117
Posted by: Down South | Feb 19 2023 16:52 utc | 16
Posted by: young | Feb 19 2023 15:30 utc | 2
Correct, Bakhmut is lost, so focus on the North and the South, for the moves being made, and the moves to be made, that will decide this conflict. The centre is one huge tarpit for the Ukrainians, but the North is where the most important gains are being made as the Russian forces systematically secure the Osgil river line, threaten the MSR for the Ukrainian troops massed for their Spring offensive and shield an axis of advance. Oh! Look over their, Ugledar is such a disaster, classic misdirection from a well planned feint that played into it’s opponents bias’s and pre-determined views.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2023 16:59 utc | 17
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 16:35 utc | 1
No, bacon, what you're talking about is not sovereignty.
What you're talking about is international meddling, not sovereignty.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Feb 19 2023 17:04 utc | 18
Downbeat Bloomberg report from Munich:
Zelensky harangues while western officials grapple and wrestle with intractable problems. Putin cannot be allowed to win, but NATO lacks resources to force him to lose. What to do?
Posted by: jayc | Feb 19 2023 17:08 utc | 19
Posted by: Arganthonios | Feb 19 2023 17:04 utc | 18
For the sake of accuracy, maybe none my business, but Don Bacon's post is currently #12.
What matters is the time stamp and still....I went and read the 1st post, but I can't remember it and I saw it wasn't Don, so that informs why I'm posting this.
In my humble opinion, something is blowing in the wind.
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 19 2023 17:09 utc | 20
I read post #1 again and it merits consideration I think. I mean why do a root cause analysis if you gonna try to keep it under wraps. That is not only disingenuous, it speaks to storm clouds on the horizon and yes indeed, I think something is blowing in the wind and it ain't a balloon...I hope it gets shot down before it even gets beyond the mind of a sick man.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 19 2023 17:11 utc | 21
It seems to me that people do not agree on a definition of sovereignty.
I respectfully suggest that sovereignty should be defined as control over domestic affairs and not necessarily foreign policy.
Foreign policy, by definition, is shaped in response to "others". It is well known that there is a pecking order among the others, currently under adjustment.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 19 2023 17:25 utc | 22
Posted by: Down South | Feb 19 2023 16:52 utc | 16
Only partially correct, the Ukrainian army was trained to NATO standards only regarding battalion level and below and mainly in raiding and ambush techniques. Their accelerated training programme was devised so they could assault the LPR/DPR strongholds and ambush any supporting armour. This basic curriculum was brutally exposed, as Ukrainian units were unable to launch effective Brigade attacks, when the Russians didn’t roll over and play dead. NATO, faced with the disintegration of their proxy, switched to the UA’s Soviet-era tactical muscle memory and got the entrenching tools swinging (the Ukrainian troops boasted that they were moles). This defend order was massively helped by eight years of fortifications, again testament to the UA’s tendency to fight a war of attrition and small engagements, not the NATO core doctrine of mechanised manoeuvre.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2023 17:28 utc | 23
#1 I have my pre-Hersh mindset and my post-Hersh mindset in process. Very interesting question is, was Norwegian Stoltenberg given some knowledge about the pipeline plans and if so, when. Looking at RF intelligence penetration of UKR going back decades, possible Zelen drug usage, I mean he is a prop like Kamala, I strongly doubt a single UKR citizen was given info.
Posted by: paxmark1 | Feb 19 2023 17:28 utc | 24
@ Arganthonios | Feb 19 2023 17:04 utc | 18
No, bacon, what you're talking about is not sovereignty. What you're talking about is international meddling, not sovereignty.
Blinken says sovereignty on Ukraine joining NATO.
Feb 17, 2022
Secretary Antony J. Blinken on Russia’s Threat to Peace and Security at the UN Security Council
This council’s primary responsibility – the very reason for its creation – is the preservation of peace and security. As we meet today, the most immediate threat to peace and security is Russia’s looming aggression against Ukraine.The stakes go far beyond Ukraine. This is a moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people, as well as for the foundation of the United Nations Charter and the rules-based international order that preserves stability worldwide. This crisis directly affects every member of this council and every country in the world.
Because the basic principles that sustain peace and security – principles that were enshrined in the wake of two world wars and a Cold War – are under threat. The principle that one country cannot change the borders of another by force. The principle that one country cannot dictate another’s choices or policies, or with whom it will associate. The principle of national sovereignty.
This is the exact kind of crisis that the United Nations – and specifically this Security Council – was created to prevent. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 17:29 utc | 25
Zelensky harangues while western officials grapple and wrestle with intractable problems. Putin cannot be allowed to win, but NATO lacks resources to force him to lose. What to do?
Posted by: jayc | Feb 19 2023 17:08 utc | 19
I'd say it is a good time for a surprise on-side kick.
Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 19 2023 17:29 utc | 26
Pray tell me how any country is sovereign when its money is controlled by the God of Mammon cult?
Having finance controlled by the God of Mammon cult effects both national and foreign policy of all nations under the jackboot.
We are seeing that clearly in the words and actions of the current load of puppets running our governments.
Thanks again for the drum beats of truth to power b
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 19 2023 17:44 utc | 27
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 17:29 utc | 25
~
I know this is pointless, but I clicked on the link at the end of your post and I just can't even read it nor watch the dimwit diplomat spoiled rotten brat to the core you want my humble opinion so I'll give it.
~
Nonetheless, thanks for your post.
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 19 2023 17:47 utc | 28
Biden also referred to Ukraine sovereignty prior to Feb 24, which solidified Russia on its SMO to come.
Dec 21, 2021
U.S., NATO fully committed to Ukraine, says Blinken ahead of Lavrov talks
STOCKHOLM, Dec 2 (Reuters) - NATO allies share an "unwavering commitment" to Ukraine's sovereignty, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday, hours before he meets Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov amid escalating East-West tensions over Ukraine.
"The unwavering commitment of the United States to Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, its independence... that is a view that not only the United States holds but all of our NATO allies hold as well," Blinken told Kuleba at their talks. . .here
Sep 1, 2021
Joint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership
. . .We are committed to Ukraine’s implementation of the deep and comprehensive reforms necessary to fulfill its European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. We are also united in our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of continued Russian aggression.
I. Security and Defense
In the 21st century, nations cannot be allowed to redraw borders by force.Russia violated this ground rule in Ukraine. Sovereign states have the right to make their own decisions and choose their own alliances. The United States stands with Ukraine and will continue to work to hold Russia accountable for its aggression. America’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 17:56 utc | 29
"Feb 19 2023 17:29 utc | 25
no intact rivals is the neocon/biden precondition for the 'preservation of peace and securoity'.
it is destroy any potential challenger to the beltway/london axis.
control of nuclear weapons must be removed from the blob controlled axis
Posted by: paddy | Feb 19 2023 18:06 utc | 30
@ Don Bacon
The US definition of "Sovereign State" is self-serving and propagandistic. Was Yugoslavia a sovereign state before the NATO invasion?
It is in their geopolitical interests to freeze the boundaries in Ukraine.
Similar to Soros' "Open Society", in practice meaning "open to being bribed with our money".
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 19 2023 18:15 utc | 31
Re NATO training Ukraine, this clip shows that there seems to be a complete lack of understanding about the battlefield they are going to fight in. One drone grenade, PGM, or any number of weapons deployed by the RF forces would KO this section, bunched in their, by the numbers, NATO trench clearing drill.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXYp4kAhvnU
Interesting comment (0:35) about the recruit’s experience level and the resignation in the trainers voice about their likely fate, before getting back on script.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2023 18:22 utc | 32
Don Bacon, I think you will find N Korea and Iran are Sovereign States by any definition. Yet there is no evidence any of the 50 states comprising the USA with notable exception of Hawaii ever were or are Sovereign States.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 19 2023 15:47 utc | 4
----------------------------
Don, you have forgotten Vermont which was part of New France for 200 years prior to 1759, then an anarchic magnet for runaway slaves and runaway debtors until 1777 when it enacted its own constitution and continued as a sovereign state for 14 years until it joined the USA as the 14th state in 1791.
Posted by: Chas | Feb 19 2023 18:24 utc | 33
Before the day’s proceedings sinks into a quagmire of crap .......
Buildup To War In Ukraine - Saturday, February 19, 2022
For the record
Diary log 19 feb 2022 Saturday
node of the Druzhba gas pipeline exploded. Another explosion in Lugansk Kamennobrodsky district. A gas station was blown up there. Two transformer substations in the Donetsk Republic were damaged by shelling. Shell exploded Rostov Region of Russia, one kilometer from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
OSCE record bombardment dramatically intensified as the week went on until it reached a peak on February 19, when a total of 2,026 artillery strikes were recorded.
Units of the US Armed Forces and military equipment were delivered M1097 Avenger, two containers with 8 FIM-92 Stinger missiles.
US President Biden during a press conference accused the DPR and the LPR of violating the ceasefire and said that there is no evidence that Ukraine is preparing an attack.
Zelensky says that all residents of these regions who disagree with Ukrainian Government in Kiev should flee to Russia
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 19 2023 18:58 utc | 34
It wasn't just Merkel and Hollande, but also Zelensky himself admitted last week that he never had any intention of implementing the Minsk agreements. His interview with Der Spiegel is behind a paywall but here is a machine translation of a copy of the relevant part
SPIEGEL: But you tried to implement the Minsk Agreement yourself?Zelenskyj: I jumped on this train, which to be honest was already headed towards the abyss. By "train" I mean these agreements as a whole. Each dot represents a wagon, and when you start picking it apart, you get the point: the whole thing is constructed in such a way that one side can't fulfill something and the other side freezes the conflict. I didn't see any desire in the agreements to leave Ukraine its independence! I understand their point: first of all, they wanted to appease Russia's appetite a little at the expense of Ukraine. Procrastination is perfectly fine in diplomacy. You never know when a decision-maker dies and everything suddenly becomes easier. I saw only one purpose in these agreements: thanks to them, there was an official platform for discussion to solve anything at all. And then I concentrated on the issue of the prisoner exchange and said to the head of the presidential office: Andriy, let's expand this, it's about people. And when we create an all-for-all exchange, we look further. But as far as Minsk is concerned as a whole, I said to Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel: We cannot do it like this.”
So while he publicly said at the Munich Security Conference about the agreements that "their foundation is the unquestionable recognition of the territorial integrity and independence of our state", he now tells the Spiegel that he "didn't see any desire in the agreements to leave [allow] Ukraine its independence!"
Posted by: Brendan | Feb 19 2023 19:15 utc | 35
Josep Borrel, at a security conference in Munich, stressing that the EU countries should supply Ukraine with all the ammunition they have today.
"We must quickly increase and accelerate military supplies to Ukraine. Ukraine is in a critical situation in terms of ammunition, this problem should be solved within weeks. It cannot be solved by joint purchases of ammunition, since any orders will now be at the end of a long list of orders that EU countries have already placed. We must use what we have, what the member countries have, which will then replenish these reserves through joint supplies," Borrel said. - This should be handled by the foreign ministers and defense ministers. An emergency meeting will be held on March 6-7, at which we will propose to speed up the process that is already underway."
NATO has gone all in on a losing hand
Posted by: hankster | Feb 19 2023 20:05 utc | 36
What you're talking about is international meddling, not sovereignty.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Feb 19 2023 17:04 utc | 18
Both of you are fully correct.
And it can't be repeated often enough!
Posted by: jpc | Feb 19 2023 20:16 utc | 37
You would this would give pause to thought in NATO but Stoltenberg alarmed at a RF victory said
🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺"Some worry that our support to Ukraine risks triggering escalation,let me be clear,there are no risk-free options,but the biggest risk of all is if Putin wins" - Jens Stoltenberg
https://t.me/azmilitary11/38117
Posted by: Down South | Feb 19 2023 16:52 utc | 16
Jens just blurts out alarmist brainfarts
WRT the biggest risk.
Nato and the European lackies have sanctioned themselves out relevancy to Russia.
They have disastrously cut off decade's of cheap and reliable energy supplies from Russia.
So Jens if you're capable of explaining how Putin can actually do worse than that achieved by US/ Nato and the European lackies.
Please enlighten us.
Posted by: jpc | Feb 19 2023 20:30 utc | 38
Feb 19 2022 was critical in the lead up to Russia's SMO because of a section of Zelensky's speech to the Munich Security Conference that seems to have eluded b's eagle eye (although the significance of it was not wasted on Putin at the time). Zelensky expressed a clear desire to drop Ukraine's 'neutral' status and the accompanying guarantees/assurances under the Budapest Memorandum (where Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal inherited from the USSR) for a more tangible form of defence under the NATO umbrella of Art.5. Effectively he was advocating the placing of US/NATO nuclear missiles in Ukraine, and from the this point the SMO became unavoidable.
"And I hope no one thinks of Ukraine as a convenient and eternal buffer zone between the West and Russia. This will never happen. Nobody will allow that. Otherwise - who's next? Will NATO countries have to defend each other? I want to believe that the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 will be more effective than the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this. Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees."
Posted by: B.F.Finlayson | Feb 19 2023 20:50 utc | 39
b, very much appreciate this running series. To you or anyone else who might know: Is there a single link that we can use to direct people to the entire series without interruptions (like the other daily posts)? I want to send the *series* to a few friends and make it as easy as possible for them to just move from one installment to the next as b continues documenting the runup.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 19 2023 21:46 utc | 40
Paul Greenwood | Feb 19 2023 15:47 utc | 4
there is only one river, only one world breath, only one sea. there are no sovereign states. such a notion contradicts the laws of reality.
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Feb 19 2023 22:38 utc | 41
_elenskyj: «We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this.»
I guess the self-determination of the colonized and massacred peoples of Novorossya does not matter to the ruthenian colonizers and massacrers:
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/05/10/ukra-m10.html
«10 May 2014
With the open support of Washington and its European allies, the regime installed by Washington and Berlin in last February’s fascist-led putsch is now extending its reign of terror against all popular resistance in Ukraine. That is the significance of the events in the major eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol yesterday. After tanks, armoured personnel carriers and heavily armed troops were unleashed on unarmed civilians in the city, the Kiev regime claimed to have killed some 20 people. The Obama administration immediately blamed the violent repression on “pro-Russian separatists.”»
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/least-among-us-war-donbas-terrorizing-ukraines-most-vulnerable-citizens/
«The deep anger toward both Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (I was told by one young woman, a native of Donetsk, that “this is Poroshenko’s war”) and an equally deep sense of alienation from the Ukrainian state in Kiev are equally unmistakable. One young mother told us “there is no ‘back’ to Ukraine for Donbas.” If Poroshenko and his cheerleaders in the Obama administration and the US Congress believe that an economic blockade, Kiev’s deployment of snipers, the shelling of Donbas’s civilians and a proposal to send American weapons with which to facilitate the shelling is the recipe for winning eastern Ukrainian “hearts and minds” they couldn’t be more wrong. Yet, tellingly, this is the strategy Poroshenko himself laid out last November in a speech in which he declared: “Our children will go to schools and kindergartens, theirs will be holed up in the basements. Because they are not able to do a thing. This is exactly how we will win this war!” Well, he may have half the job done. The little children we saw are indeed cowering in filthy conditions in underground Soviet-era bomb shelters.»
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 19 2023 22:42 utc | 42
how "covenient" that for MSC today especially Moldova and Kosovo are spieling about possible Russian threats to takeover....encouraging more definite action and excuses from EU Nato to protect the wannabee's...so eager to fall into the trap of delusionally joining the mainstream russophobia and war build up
Posted by: Jo | Feb 19 2023 22:56 utc | 43
In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev stupidly gave Ukraine a gift: Crimea, which includes Russia's only warm-water port in a strategically important location... Putin wisely got it back.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 16:49 utc | 15
-----------------------
Khrushchev was not the brightest of the Soviet leaders, but he was Ukrainian.
Posted by: Ed | Feb 19 2023 22:56 utc | 44
In discussing the status of Iran and North Korea as sovereign states, and whether they are able to defend their sovereignty in the face of ongoing threats from the United States and its allies - in North Korea's case, this ongoing threat is the annual Operation Foal Eagle military exercises that take place during the periods when North Korea's army reservists are needed to sow rice and other crops (around April), and to harvest them later (August to September) - it might be worth considering whether South Korea is a sovereign state able to defend its sovereignty.
In spite of having one of the world's largest armed forces, would South Korea be considered a sovereign state?
South Korea hosts US military bases, as Japan does - and also as in Japan, the presence of these bases and the soldiers there arouse hostility and protests among the local people, not least because US soldiers have a habit of raping local women and teenage girls, or running over teenage schoolchildren while driving and killing them. South Koreans have also protested against the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile defence system by the US military in Seongju (SE South Korea) on environmental and health grounds. This system is clearly aimed at North Korea and possibly China and Russia using South Korea as a proxy. Yet Seoul seems to have done little to push back against the US in using South Korea as a potential battleground.
Posted by: Jen | Feb 19 2023 23:05 utc | 45
Zelensky's speech on this date amounted to a threat for Ukraine to (re?)acquire nuclear weapons. It was delivered in the presence of Kamala Harris and presumably other US officials, who undoubtedly vetted the speech, perhaps wrote it. After it, Russia had no choice but to invade. We know from Hersh's article that the US was planning for war in Ukraine for at least months. Zelensky's speech was meant to be the last straw that would make Russia's invasion inevitable.
Posted by: Lysias | Feb 19 2023 23:06 utc | 46
Down South #16
You would think this would give pause to thought in NATO but Stoltenberg alarmed at a RF victory said🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺"Some worry that our support to Ukraine risks triggering escalation,let me be clear,there are no risk-free options,but the biggest risk of all is if Putin wins" - Jens Stoltenberg
Thank you for that superb quote from Jens the fool.
IMO Russia has indeed won. Today the tank measure is telling. Almost 8,000 nazi tanks destroyed and the promised 350 asap turns out to be 50 max by April :))
Savour those stats. Tomorrow there will be others to consider.
There are multiple hushed EU inferences of backing off from the nazi table at the wests casino enterprise.
Even the Indian Foreign Minister has the strength to stand up to the vulgar little Soros:
WHO ASKED YOU? George Soros is at the Munich Security Conference, who is not an elected official, nor much of ANYTHING besides a billionaire with a regime-change focused foundation, bankrolling destabilization worldwide (WHY is he invited here?).He accuses India of authoritarianism and needing some good old fashioned liberal democracy...
🇮🇳 In response (bottom video), India's Foreign Minister, rightly brushes Soros off as "old, rich, opinionated and dangerous" (and, evidently, the biggest threat to security you can bring to a security conference!)
source: https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/6248
Take a minute to watch the brief videos.
The times they are a changing.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2023 23:21 utc | 47
Blissex | Feb 19 2023 22:42 utc | 43
Always good posts yes the role of Poroshenko gets forgotten
Reminder of the build up to the build up
january 4th, YouTube and Facebook blocked Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic
january 17, ex-president of Ukraine, oligarch Petro Poroshenko, returned to the country
January 24th, UAF clears minefields to enable military offensive actions.
February 2 Zelenskiy fears that the repeated talk of an imminent war risks scaring off investors
OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine say 150000 Ukrainian armed forces in the Donbass.
14 February USA evacuates embassy in Kiev. USA naval CSG blocks Black Sea
15 February VIPs left Ukraine.
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 19 2023 23:27 utc | 48
hankster #36
Josep Borrel, at a security conference in Munich, stressing that the EU countries should supply Ukraine with all the ammunition they have today...
NATO has gone all in on a losing hand
Thank you.
I am comforted by the thought of Gibraltar being a holiday destination in the greater Russian territories.
The englanders not so much ;)
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2023 23:31 utc | 49
jen | Feb 19 2023 23:05 utc | 46
Yes there is precious little in the media about how sick S Korea is of the USA occupation
Young S Koreans are more afraid of USA than N Korea.
In UK we had a young man killed by a USA woman who cried diplomatic immunity, fled the country and got off scott free. Sentence was picking litter for a week or summat.
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 19 2023 23:35 utc | 50
@ Jen | Feb 19 2023 23:05 utc | 46
it might be worth considering whether South Korea is a sovereign state able to defend its sovereignty.
The Republic of Korea is definitely not sovereign, a US general commands its military forces for one thing, in addition to the examples mentioned. All these advantages that the US enjoys, including an air base one air-hour from Beijing, are good reasons why Trump's Singapore deal with DPRK was not allowed by the PTB. Who needs peace? The Korean War was never ended, for seventy years and counting.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 19 2023 23:53 utc | 51
Several sources document that Putin will make an hour long, significant speech at 1200 Moscow time on 21 Feb...
Russian media have been requested to broadcast the speech live to all of Russia.
Two bloggers.... Empire https://oliverboydbarrett.substack.com
reports on various aspects of Ukraine
Signs of some kind of pathology are surely present from the get-go when we are talking about a jewish comedian who has chosen to surround himself with Banderite neonazis who celebrate a heritage that includes the massacre of tens of thousands of jews.
The issue of pathology is suddenly foregrounded in the grimmest possible way upon learning of increasing evidence that the collective west is instructing their Kiev proxy that Ukraine cannot depend on the current level of western aid beyond next summer.
Indeed, for several months now the evidence has shown that the volume and quality of western aid has been tapering off. This could of course all be a complex ruse to lull the Russians into a false sense of security.
I dont think this is probable, first of all because the evidence of a crisis in supplies to western countries of tanks, armored vehicles, air-defense systems, fighter jets, missiles and other ammunition comes at us from diverse directions and appears to be evident in the battlefield.
Secondly, it is not at all clear that things would be that much different on the battlefield if these western supplies were not under strain.
Thirdly, I dont think the Russians are giving much indication that they are liable to be lulled into a false sense of security any time soon. What else can you say about an opponent who allows most of its fighting to be done by a private army that recruits prisoners, in conjunction with local militia, and Chechnyans, and whose regular army force of 300,000-500,000 is amassing along Russian and Belurussian borders in potential preparation for a lethal assault, one that could include occupation of the entire country, and whose casualty rates - at between 14,000 to 20,000, according to the BBC - are at the very least five times less than those of Ukraine?
Simplicius 76 .... https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed
Analyzes the upcoming Russian Offensive....
Since we’re getting so close to approaching the nail-biting period of February 21 - 24 that so many are anticipating, I figured it’ll be good to compile all the recent, top developments regarding the potential for a new ‘major’ Russian offensive. Some of them have already been mentioned in a previous update, but we’ll cite them again to centralize all relevant materials.
1. First, there are two reputable channels which are now confirming major actions are coming within a week. Romanov Lite, who many of you know, is a Crimean based commentator who also works with some Russian/Donbass units, helping supply them and is often seen on the lines with them, often has insider info as he speaks directly to the troops. He posted this message that it is soon GO TIME:
2. Then, another reputable channel issued this urgent call of alarm:
“From "2 Majors" TG Channel:
--
Residents of Ukraine
Everyone understands that the past month, during which the Russian Armed Forces seized the initiative, was a preparation . Open sources mention the Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov and Zaporizhia as possible directions for an offensive.
People living in these territories can see for themselves signs of how the AFU are preparing these cities and areas for defense. The area is being mined, fortifications are being built, military columns and buses with mercenaries are moving.
The Ukrainian command has good intelligence from American satellites, processed by experienced analytical centers.
But official Kiev does not announce the evacuation of the population. Because fortified areas are being built in cities and the civilian population will once again become a human shield. Evacuation in Kupyansk was announced after the Russian Armed Forces approached the city at 7-10 km.
It is absolutely necessary for Ukrainians to leave these cities. The Russian Armed Forces will no longer conduct a police operation. Such nonsense as it was in Mariupol, when the position of an enemy sniper/machine gunner could not be demolished because in a dilapidated five-story building "there can be civilians", will no longer apply.
And after all the horrific videos of tortures and shootings of our soldiers, the joyful reaction of a large number of Ukrainians to them, the attitude of soldiers and officers to "peaceful population" has changed somewhat.”
3. Recently we had the first ever confirmation—with actual photographic evidence—of Russian force buildups on Ukraine’s border resembling those of pre-Feb. 2022. Here are satellite photos of one of them; there are reportedly such camps in Kursk and Voronezh regions, which are directly above Sumy and Kharkov oblasts of Ukraine.
4. There are now several reports of large field hospitals being constructed in at least two different regions, again reminiscent of exactly what happened last time prior to the start of the SMO. And a senior lieutenant of the AFU stated that 10,000 Russian troops have amassed across the border from Sumy.
Senior Lieutenant of the Armed Forces Andrey Gulakov for The Times
According to him, the invaders built a field hospital there, and this is an indicator that the Russians are planning offensive actions, as they did last year.
Also, you can see in the above post that Russians have reportedly laid gravel on the routes along the border, nullifying the rasputitsa problems.
5. A massive 80km long convoy of Russian army supply trucks is reported to be currently in transit slowly through mud between Mariupol & Berdiansk, according to ‘advisor to the mayor of Mariupol’ Petro Andryuschenko. Keep in mind this is the exiled Ukrainian ‘ex-advisor’ to the previous Mariupol administration prior to its liberation.
6. Ukrainian MP Goncharenko claims that in far western Belarus, a group of ‘Wagner’ soldiers were spotted.
7. And buses reportedly full of 1700 Wagner soldiers are being sent toward Zaporozhe (one of the imminent lines of attack in the coming offensive):
8. Russian Buks and other AD is also seen moving from the Mariupol direction toward the likely offensive vectors:
10. We reported the alleged numbers last time, but will collate it here again:
“The Russian Federation has prepared 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era self-propelled guns, such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters for the upcoming massive attack on Ukraine .
Specifically, in light of the 700-750 jets and helicopters, there are also rumors circulating on Ukrainian airwaves that Russian airforce will not only operate in a wholly new doctrine in the coming offensive, but have already been seen doing this recently.
"Previously, the aviation was protected, it almost did not fly into the zone of action of the Ukrainian air defense. Now they decided to change the tactics," says the interlocutor of the journalists. According to the journalist's source, the Russian Federation still has an advantage in aviation over the Armed Forces. Despite the fact that Russian planes and helicopters will be shot down en masse, this will create certain problems for the Ukrainian army."
The ‘new doctrine’ entails the usage of Russian airpower incursions much deeper into the heart of Ukrainian land, rather than skirting the edges of the contact lines for fear of being shot down, as they do now.
There are claims that in the past couple of weeks, Russian jets have already been doing this, as well as “new types of drones.” Not only have a few interesting videos turned up—one of them showing a Russian Su-24M flying over Kherson at an altitude high enough to suggest it had zero fear of AD (i.e. 3000-5000ft rather than the usual 100-300ft), but also a few days ago the AFU complained that some sort of new ‘long range’ and ‘high altitude’ set of drones were flying deep over their territory in the following route:
They said they flew at upwards of 18,000 - 20,000ft which is extremely high for most of the types of drones in this conflict. This coincided with a large Russian loitering drone strike only days later which was carried out by some “new type” of drone with a notably different sonic pattern than the famous Shahed/Geran/Dorito ‘lawnmower’ noise. These drones had a much ‘deeper’ motor sound suggestive of perhaps a larger or more powerful drone.
And this was at the head of reports that Iran had delivered several new types of “larger drones” to Russia, which we mentioned in a previous writeup, likely the Shahed-129 and more Mohajer-6’s as well as some claim maybe Shahed-171. Of course, it’s all speculation for now.
But the interesting thing about that flight pattern posted in an above graphic, which is straight from Ukrainian channels themselves, is that it shows a deep observation into the deepest rear areas of AFU. And on the eve of a potential large-scale military action, it suggests a probing and reconnaissance of AFU’s critical rear areas to prepare mass strikes on them in the coming days.
Apparently, Russia has been utilizing far more direct precision (PGM) missile strikes onto Ukrainian positions. This has major significance for two reasons: firstly, long ago, Russian strikes were often in two main camps of short range ‘tactical’ level artillery of various sorts, and long range ‘strategic’ level cruise missile strikes onto critical infrastructure, launched by heavy bombers etc. But this represents a shift into vital medium range striking abilities, with Russian jets like Su-24m’s, Su-30, Su-34, etc., likely launching these newly ramped missiles onto tactical-level targets just in the rear of frontline units.
There are a variety of proofs to substantiate this. Not only have we seen several videos of Dmitry Medvedev touring Russian missile factories that produce exactly these munitions, in announcement of the vast ramping up of their productions (here and here).
But videos recently began to emerge reportedly showing Su-34’s more actively firing such medium range air-to-ground PGM’s into AFU positions (here and here).
And also were the repeated recent warnings of Russian forces employing “new tactics” such as air balloons with reflectors attached to confuse/expend Ukrainian AD, as well as increasingly more complex waves of dummy ‘decoy missiles’.
So, adding those things together, we can see that in the upcoming escalations, Russia will likely be employing their airforce (the totality of airpower, including new drones) in increasingly active ways to demolish a depleted Ukrainian army. One of the reasons it’s certain they’ll be doing this is because contrary to UA sources, the Ukrainian air defense network is close to nonexistent at this point.
Ukraine’s AD network is in DIRE condition. And I believe this is the reason that Russian airforce is beginning to step up and operate with more impunity. And once even MORE fixed-wing/rotary pieces join the fray, it will create the compounding effects I spoke of last time, and should completely overpower the remaining AD and wreak havoc on the AFU. And this goes with the mentioned ‘rumors’ that the next phase will feature a much more offensively active RuAF.
So.... is the balloon about to go up???
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 19 2023 23:54 utc | 52
"South Korea hosts US military bases, as Japan does - and also as in Japan, the presence of these bases and the soldiers there arouse hostility and protests among the local people, not least because US soldiers have a habit of raping local women and teenage girls or running over teenage schoolchildren while driving and killing them. South Koreans have also protested against the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile defense system by the US military in Seongju (SE South Korea) on environmental and health grounds."
Posted by: Jen | Feb 19 2023 23:05 utc | 46
--------------------------------------
As a young Marine, I was stationed in Okinawa during the Vietnam era. Everything you said is so true for Okinawa. I was stationed there before and after the island was returned to Japan. The only people on the island happy to see G.I.s were the working girls and bar owners in the red-light districts.
There were demonstrations against US bases on the island every week or so. There are places on the island that are almost un-unhabitual due to toxic dumping of PCBs and other chemicals by the US. Drugs were everywhere due to US pilots and crews bringing it in from Nam or Thailand.
Even today, the people of Okinawa want the US to leave them in peace, but Okinawa is NOT a sovereign Island, and neither is Japan.
Posted by: Ed | Feb 20 2023 0:00 utc | 53
@young 2 and Milites 17
If I'm not mistaken, the primary short-to-midterm goal of the Russians is to deplete the Ukrainian army, not seize land.
So we may not see a big push for land if and when Bakhmut falls. And I suspect that the warmish weather (hovering above and below freezing -- please keep your armor out of the fields) will protect the Ukrainian front-line forces from a rout.
Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 20 2023 0:08 utc | 54
It occurs to me that if the sovereignty of any nation is in the gift of another large bullying, and bribing nation, then by definition that nation is not sovereign.
I mean that is what all this is about isn't it? A couple of the larger more powerful nations on this planet despite a superabundance of attempts by amerika to subdue them via bribery, blackmail, cronyism & other forms of blatant intimidation have elected not to conform to amerika's self-contradictory definition of sovereignty which would spell an existence in obeisance to amerika; therefore amerika's response to them has been declaration of war. Yep both of them - we can all see that the amerikan staged and resourced by standover proxy war with Russia easily enough, so we ought to also see that recent statements of intent by assorted amerikan politicians and their foreign satraps about China are also an overt declaration of war. That is certainly how the leaders of China will be considering it.
This is why so many in the 'global south' have raced to support Russia & China in this endeavour, they imagine that if Russia or China do win their right to operate free from amerikan interference, that they too will get the same opportunity.
Unfortunately history teaches us that this is not so, that when amerika is displaced, another nation will replace them and the best that any of the smaller nation states can hope for is some type of favoured satrap status. I have no doubt that many of the leaders of nations in the global south recognise this but have decided that where they will end up is certainly going to be better than where they are now.
I realise many posters here disagree with this and fervently believe that the dislodging of amerika will be followed by a time of eternal stability, that would be nice, but it has never occured before when an empire collapses and there is nothing in the tenor or attitudes of contemporary nation leadership, determined by how they act, not what they say, which could possibly lead one to conclude that once amerika has copped the shit-kicking it so richly deserves, that all will be unicorns and rainbows afterwards.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 0:09 utc | 55
Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 0:09 utc | 58
I am racking my little brain for an example of peace after downfall of empire and , shit, i cant
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 20 2023 0:29 utc | 56
Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 0:09 utc | 58
I suppose all i can say is that while the knights clash swords, the peasants drink beer and laugh
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 20 2023 0:31 utc | 57
European countries lost their sovereignty to the EU and NATO. Countries do still operate the buses and trains and continue tax collections from the citizens to pay all the civil and military servants who have nothing productive to do.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 0:36 utc | 58
re Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 20 2023 0:29 utc | 59
who said "I am racking my little brain for an example of peace after downfall of empire and , shit, i cant"
Yeah, the only question is whether that state of affairs is a reflection of humanity as a whole, or whether it is the inevitable result of the leadership model of governance which humanity adopted when most citizens lived in a state of ignorance and power greedy leaders have kept us all stuck under since.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 0:37 utc | 59
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 0:09 utc | 58
History does repeat itself, but not always....if it always did, then nothing would ever change and at some point time would stop.
Time hasn't stopped, so history must not always repeat itself must it?
I don't think so.
but....
time will tell I reckon.
don't be a fatalist - it is unbecoming to those of us who have visions of a better future...but usually, you are correct, history does repeat itself, or at least it has since the day I was born, but I been lied to since the day I was born, so to whom should I give heed?
Hope springs eternal and fatalist are tiring to say the least.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 0:40 utc | 60
Sigh... I guess the Whiskey Bar was also quiet Sunday, so everyone moseyed over to MoA. But the chatter is boring. In five years, will anything said on these threads be important? I'm thinking not.
Posted by: Light 💤 Sleeper | Feb 20 2023 0:54 utc | 61
Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 0:37 utc | 62
‘leadership model of governance which humanity adopted when most citizens lived in a state of ignorance and power greedy leaders have kept us all stuck under since.’
yes, most people are very willing to give up control of their lives for what they call an easy life, having others make decisions for them, trade security for freedom and risk.
Guess i am an old fashioned anarchist who has lived on the edge of society all my life, and for many it would be a hard life, but for some there is no other way to live, so it is easy.
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 20 2023 0:56 utc | 62
Light Sleeper | Feb 20 2023 0:54 utc | 64
They say only the boring get bored.
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 20 2023 0:57 utc | 63
They say only the boring get bored said olaf22 (Feb 20 2023 0:57 utc | 66).
In reply, 👍.
Posted by: Light 💤 Sleeper | Feb 20 2023 1:04 utc | 64
If you are bored, why post at all.
Is it because you can't go to sleep and your bored...
I mean seriously - what are you trying to say....
elaborate or be bored by you light sleeping lonesome self I reckon...
Please don't sleep in the tavern however, unless you are willing to pay for a night's accomadations.
Seriously.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:11 utc | 65
above and beyond that, your snoring Z's are getting annoying to the other patrons trying to have a conversation, but whatever, snore away if you are a light sleeper - I respect anybody need for a good night's rest.
~
Bartender - Kentucky bourbon please.
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:13 utc | 66
re Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 0:40 utc | 63 who reckoned
"don't be a fatalist - it is unbecoming to those of us who have visions of a better future...but usually, you are correct, history does repeat itself, or at least it has since the day I was born, but I been lied to since the day I was born, so to whom should I give heed?
Hope springs eternal and fatalist are tiring to say the least."
It sounds to me as though you are the fatalist when we actually need to give serious consideration to the reality humanity always finds itself in, if we are to alter that state of affairs.
The way things are right now I have no doubt that history will repeat when the same conditions which applied when say the Roman Empire collapsed still apply now. Which they do, each nation state is governed by a small elite of self-entitled greedies who from time to time spout a river of guff to distract the rest of us.
There is no reason when all humans live in a world where anyone can access all the information they want on virtually any subject, that decisions which effect all humans are made by a few. We are still be forced to live with decisions made by self-interested greedies happy to send any/all of us out to fight and die for their benefit.
Those who doubt this will undoubtedly be able to explain why if it were not correct, that the elite few are fighting like buggery to suppress access to information eg as exposed in the twitter files, and to deny adequately funded public education to all the people eg as revealed by W.Gates & co's lunatic insistence on privately funded 'charter schools' to replace public freely available education.
Surely the mere fact that the elites are attempting to force people back into a state of ignorance reveals that they understand the issue and know that an educated aware population is the antithesis of what they need to retain their grip over us all.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 1:16 utc | 67
"...history teaches us that this is not so, that when amerika is displaced, another nation will replace them and the best that any of the smaller nation states can hope for is some type of favoured satrap status..." debsisdead
There has never been an Empire like this one. There has never been a capitalist empire, wrapping its tentacles around the entire globe, before this one. There has never been an empire which has made such a profound impact upon the environmment of the planet, before this one.
Nothing has come even close.
There has never been a society, dominated by an empire, of the same size-8 billions-or anywhere close to that magnitude. And there has never been a society in which almost instantaneous communication between people living in Australasia, America, Europe and across Asia has been possible, let alone easy.
What are meant by previous empires? There have been some but they have been much smaller, more local: there was an Iroquois Empire, Abyssinia had an empire, Egypt, Greece, the Mongols and the Moguls all had empires. There have been empires in China for millennia. Then there was the Roman Empire. And many others.
What makes this Empire unique is that is has evolved, never falling but changing shape while retaining its basic character, from the Iberian empires, one fastened onto America, the other also onto Asia, to the Dutch, to the British to the current iteration.
What could be happening now is not-as the imperialist insist and cynics agree- the substitution of one empire for another. The displacement of Washington and Wall St and its replacement in the form of Beijing and Shanghai (or New Delhi and Mumbai) is unlikely. Washington inherited the evolved capitalist maritime empire centred on London.
It is being challenged by BRICS, who are the largest powers among those nations which, having been plundered and humiliated by the Empire, have freed themselves from its trammels. Or are freeing themselves- from its banks, its currency, its culture, its economics, developing substitutes where needed and cleaning up what has become tainted to the point of being poisonous.
They can only do this by mobilising their populations and the populations of the rest of the post colonial world, including the aboriginals displaced by the settler colonies. To do this, to mobilise the masses to insist on their humanity and their dignity, it is going to be necessary to involve them, materially, intellectually and spiritually in the anti-imperialist project which is barely begun.
If the Empire falls, a consummation devoutly to be desired, it will not rise again because the force that brings it down will not submit to the genocidal racism, cannibalistic exploitation and rule by greedy 'elites' which has characterised and disfigured human history in the past five centuries, in particular.
As Frederick the Great wanted, humanity's enemies all have 'one neck' now. And there are eight thousand million hands (x2) to wring it.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 1:24 utc | 68
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 1:16 utc | 70
Deb - that is good. I propose a voice call vote in the bar - who is the fatalist in the discourse....Deb or I?
I'll take the results like a man, I just got my own Kentucky bourbon, so I suspect I'll sleep like a baby either way.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:24 utc | 70
Personally, I ain't asleep yet, and I think Deb is the fatalist and I ain't, but of course I'm biased, so not sure if my vote counts...
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:28 utc | 71
Ken its Debs not Deb.
An American that most Americans have never heard of.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 1:28 utc | 72
Oh, excuse me and beg pardon - the vote is whether Debs is the fatalist or I am.
I've already placed my vote, but I doubt it counts for much these days...
you know - and that ain't fatalist thinking - it is just based upon facts not reported and such.
How do you vote bevin, be it Deb or Debs?
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:31 utc | 73
Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 19 2023 21:46 utc | 40
>…Making b’s work accessible behind this tavern.
Substack? A number is people run substack accounts. Maybe, with permission from b, the series can be combined and archived on a number of substack sites.
The information is essential and it’s much needed for it to be circulated.
Everyday, it seems, a newfriend arrives at the bar, with little or no clue of….. anything… and especially the background to the sloSMO.
Maybe Larry Johnson or someone similar (approved by b) might allow a guest spot for b’s countdown collation.?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 20 2023 1:39 utc | 74
Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 20 2023 1:39 utc | 77
~
I have a substack account - it is easy. I'd be happy to post references to this place with permission of course.
In general a good bar, a good tavern, it invites new guest, and I can't deny as a relative newcomer I've felt welcome here by many, even if I know the discourse ain't for the week-willed and whatnot, and we all have lessons to learn, and truly - why go to a tavern if not to hang out and learn about what is going on?
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:42 utc | 75
But the reality is my Substack is about gardening and that is what is close to my heart.
Maybe Big Serge would be willing?
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:44 utc | 76
Just in case you didn't know....
and even if this is not what you had in mind, Big Serge is sort of a military historian and really, no shame in that.
https://bigserge.substack.com/
Time to go get another...drink.
So far the vote is 1-0.
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:50 utc | 77
Anybody want to share some Captain Jacks pirate rum flavored?
On me of course...if you want to share that is.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:51 utc | 78
Posted by: Ahole | Feb 19 2023 15:32 utc | 21
If NATO wins Klaus Schwab wins and you will own nothing and be happy.
Posted by: Archyzer | Feb 20 2023 1:52 utc | 79
Correction - Make that Captain Henry Morgan spiced rum for your pleasure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Morgan
Now, I ain't gonna talk to myself more than I have already - I reckon all the other patrons have gone to sleep, but I have my own bed, and the other patrons have to pay if they spend the night here idling away I reckon, but it ain't my pub, so I bid you ado.
till next time.
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:55 utc | 80
In anticipation of Putin's upcoming speech on the 21st, I again read his 24 February 2022 speech for clues as to what he'll add to it. Overall, the context then differs little from the contemporary as this part of Putin's intro shows:
It is a fact that over the past 30 years we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.Why is this happening? Where did this insolent manner of talking down from the height of their exceptionalism, infallibility and all-permissiveness come from? What is the explanation for this contemptuous and disdainful attitude to our interests and absolutely legitimate demands?
The answer is simple. Everything is clear and obvious. In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union grew weaker and subsequently broke apart. That experience should serve as a good lesson for us, because it has shown us that the paralysis of power and will is the first step towards complete degradation and oblivion. We lost confidence for only one moment, but it was enough to disrupt the balance of forces in the world.
As a result, the old treaties and agreements are no longer effective. Entreaties and requests do not help. Anything that does not suit the dominant state, the powers that be, is denounced as archaic, obsolete and useless. At the same time, everything it regards as useful is presented as the ultimate truth and forced on others regardless of the cost, abusively and by any means available. Those who refuse to comply are subjected to strong-arm tactics.
What I am saying now does not concerns only Russia, and Russia is not the only country that is worried about this. This has to do with the entire system of international relations, and sometimes even US allies. The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a redivision of the world, and the norms of international law that developed by that time – and the most important of them, the fundamental norms that were adopted following WWII and largely formalised its outcome – came in the way of those who declared themselves the winners of the Cold War.
Then there's this segue passage many recall for the soundbite it contains:
"Incidentally, US politicians, political scientists and journalists write and say that a veritable 'empire of lies' has been created inside the United States in recent years. It is hard to disagree with this – it is really so. But one should not be modest about it: the United States is still a great country and a system-forming power. All its satellites not only humbly and obediently say yes to and parrot it at the slightest pretext but also imitate its behaviour and enthusiastically accept the rules it is offering them. Therefore, one can say with good reason and confidence that the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same 'empire of lies.'"
Do note that Putin didn't coin the adage as it came from within the Empire. I do suggest several close rereadings of Putin's speech which can also be found in Russian text and video here. When doing your review, you'll note that very little has actually changed in the overall situation--NATO continues trying to push Eastward, although it's now being pushed back. Do note Putin's phraseology related to the capturing of additional territory and self-determination rights of the people living on those lands for that's very important.
In its own anticipation, the Outlaw US Empire is escalating its threats to others. IMO, there's a possibility it will farm-out disciplining Iran for supplying drones to the regime in Occupied Palestine which risks sparking the much wider war Crooke's been anticipating. Such a war is bound to have unexpected consequences for Occupied Palestine and the entire Persian Gulf Region, including Syria and Lebanon. I thought it would be hard to match or go beyond the criminality of Reagan, the Bushes, Clinton, and Obama, but Biden just might do that as he abetted all their crimes and began his own crime spree with Obama. Putin reviewed many of those crimes in his speech and said that behavior must be stopped. And it still needs to be stopped. NATO's desperate; will Nuttyahoo help it?
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 20 2023 1:55 utc | 84
Please be aware, I've sipped some Captain Morgan spiced rum, but I think Nuttyahoo is a big part of the problem if not part of the root cause, so to ask if he will help is sort of like pondering if Eve accepted the apple from the snake.
With Respect,
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 2:01 utc | 82
Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 1:16 utc | 70
I was thinking of the petering out of the Roman military empire (transition to a religious military empire). The Roman middle class went back to the land as ‘hippies’. People used barter again and became more self sufficient, ‘countries’ inturned and export trade diminished. Britain was ok, the pre Roman tribal borders still stood. 200 years later were rich, in culture and wealth.
The internet is fantastic and people are using to find alternatives to mainstream propaganda.
Beneath the dismal news there is the multitude of small realities that demonstrate the best of human kindness. And this is seen on the battlefields of Ukraine too.
In the west we have lived off the backs of the ROW for a long time and it is their turn now.
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 20 2023 2:02 utc | 83
# 64 your ego proceeds your intellect. When you judge , you are being judged to. It’s an endeavor that ends, with no insight.
Posted by: Dingo | Feb 20 2023 2:09 utc | 84
@ Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:31 utc | 76 who is not adding value to the discussion and instead pissing on the floor
I suggest you control your alcohol intake to perform at least as well as Peter AU1 who could probably drink you under the table before lunch...grin....welcome to an international bar where American exceptionalism and fight picking/disrespect like you are exuding is not welcome
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 20 2023 2:14 utc | 85
Karlof1 @ 84:
I am sure that whichever side would be the first to offer both Satanyahus (Binyamin and Sara) refuge from the Israeli justice system and turn a blind eye to their numerous conflicts of interest, crimes and abuses of Israeli taxpayer money, would be the side the Israeli PM supports first.
Posted by: Jen | Feb 20 2023 2:23 utc | 86
While I am sat in a warm house, albeit with a loved one in ICU battling for life, who I visit every day in hope he will live, men are dying and being maimed on the cold earth in Ukraine. My father in law was a ‘tail gun Charlie’ in Lancaster bombers in ww2, he survived that and India and Africa. He survived TB and other exotic diseases. My other father in law was a Polish displaced person from the Nazi camps. My step father in law was Ukrainian displaced person. They survived camps as children where they were shot at for fun and sport, and survived entirely by chance. My mother was buried by bombing in the London Blitz. They rescued her body but not her mind. I do not think that Americans have any idea what our history is, and have no idea of our deep respect for Russia and hatred for Nuland and U$A.
I’m on t’ Polish cherry vodka again
And I bid you all good night and hope for peace soon
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 20 2023 2:26 utc | 87
Where is Peter AU1?
Hoping all is well in his world...
Colatting the posts about the days leading up to the outbreak is a fabulous ideas!!
A pristine version of b's post for sure, and then maybe a wiki type page that edits and additions could be made by others to enhance and flesh out b's points even further (eg. karof1 and olaf22 and aristodemos and Peter AU1 etc etc).
that would definitely not be boring.
Posted by: Irish | Feb 20 2023 2:27 utc | 88
Does anyone know of a similar exposee of the days in the lead up to the 2014 Coup?
Posted by: Irish | Feb 20 2023 2:39 utc | 89
Watch this speech. It beats all speech s of the last week.
Posted by: Longtrail | Feb 20 2023 2:40 utc | 90
re Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 1:24 utc | 71
who foolishly murmured:
"There has never been an Empire like this one. There has never been a capitalist empire, wrapping its tentacles around the entire globe, before this one."
C'mon bevin you must know you are talking absolute bullshit. The amerikan empire is bigger than than those that went before, so what! the englander empire was bigger than the napoleonic one it defeated to become established, the napoleonic empire was larger than the holy roman empire that established across europe post the empire which preceded it and so on and so on.
Throughout humans' alleged civilised past empires have gotten bigger as the world has got seemingly smaller due to changes in travel & technology, but of itself that is meaningless because the way that each empire has been established and oppressed it's victims has remained exactly the same.
We are bound to repeat this history, that is, bound to have to deal with the empire which succeeds this present empire for as long as we continue to allow small elites to form out of the foolish pyramid model of governance we appear so wedded to.
I'm not in the least interested in the facile claims being made by those leaders currently trying to unseat the amerikan empire because even if those leaders were being honest, something which their own personal history causes me to doubt, whoever wins the struggle to succeed them won't stick to whatever was said for the simple reason that with the current leadership model in place throughout the world which is no different in construction and action than those monarchies they boast of replacing, leadership of the top of the pyramid always goes to the most ruthless greediest type in the contest.
You can try to debate the degree to which some of the current models conform to the monarchical type, but it is only a question of degree and we also know from bitter experience that a change of leader always brings with it a reversion back to the mean.
As long as humans go with the flow or even worse continue to up nations whose model is only slightly at variance with the same old, same old, we humans are going to remain stuck with systems which are not very advantageous to most of us but hugely advantageous to the few.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 20 2023 2:45 utc | 91
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 20 2023 2:14 utc | 88
Yo psycho - are you AU1's representative to speak to his drinking capability or you just an old fart full of ego?
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 2:53 utc | 92
Plus psychohistorian - I can keep my drinks down.
Is this a challenge of some sort, and honestly why would you feel the need to do that at a bar metaphorical?
Now to stay on topic, but buildup of war in *krain continues....wonder what we will learn tomorrow for those who can park their ego.
I wait with bated breath to find out.....but really....old farts who lose blood flow and stop learning - they are so tiring.
There is a better word for it, but who cares I reckon.
If you looking for a bar-room brawl, then please - count me in.
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 2:57 utc | 93
Interesting times
Dicktator little "Z" of the country 404. Was given a surprise early cash bonus gift from Norway,
AP trash poopaganda reports. On the 15th of February. The 7.4 billion US paper Air Dollars cash is payable over the next five years. Dicktator little "z" thanked the Norwegians. After receiving the first 1.4 billion US paper Air dollars. The funds were then automatically moved offshore for safety reasons. The very same hour of receipt.
Due to the well-known fact that all monies were paid to Country 404 pensioners. Habitually fails to reach the recipient's bank accounts for six to twelve months at a time. The processing time for recent eastern front war widows pension entitlements has been pushed back for up to a three to five-year delay. Whilst the funds allocated to pay the new war widows since February 2022. Has yet to pay out even one worthless local Hyrvnia.
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Feb 20 2023 3:01 utc | 94
Sorry for failing to put a */b* on that....and
@ Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 1:31 utc | 76 who is not adding value to the discussion and instead pissing on the floor
I suggest you control your alcohol intake to perform at least as well as Peter AU1 who could probably drink you under the table before lunch...grin....welcome to an international bar where American exceptionalism and fight picking/disrespect like you are exuding is not welcome
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 20 2023 2:14 utc | 88
~
I suggest you control you misdirected anger
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 3:01 utc | 95
Expect terrorism and sabotage throughout the Donbass and Russia. Plus the invasion of Transnistria and assorted atrocities. It's what America does and has done for decades. There is no limit to the evil The Empire is capable of. There is still more savagery up its sleeve.
Posted by: Rodrigo | Feb 20 2023 3:14 utc | 96
Beyond all the arguments of justification or provocation or concern about the “enemy’s" long term intentions, the bottom line is you don’t fight wars you are going to lose. You seek to avoid them and, if at a disadvantage, you have to find a creative way out. Of course it is easier if another country is fighting it for you but, in the end, it will still be seen as a loss for NATO and the U.S....and on separate note, it’s not a stat I care about and Biden can’t be blamed for all of it, but he seems headed to go down as a President who during his first term managed to oversee losses in two wars.
Posted by: GS | Feb 20 2023 3:29 utc | 97
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 1:28 utc | 75
Just so you know, I ain't no regular bar drinking patron:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_V._Debs
Moreover, I study hard and I can think even while I'm drinking in contrast to some old farts I reckon.
Not trying to influence any vote or whatnot, but old farts really get on my nerves - especially when they are pompous, which I ain't saying you are bevin, but some others here whose names are not worth mentioning I suspect are and I could make a list, but bartender could you find a place for those fallen asleep tonight - I'll pay for their accomadations because I ain't really interested in a bar-room brawl, but if you want a piece of me, then ok....you can have it.
BK
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 20 2023 3:43 utc | 98
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 18-19 Feb 2023⚡️💥#Khmelnitsky Region (#Ukraine):
▪️ On Saturday, Russian troops launched a missile strike against the location of the AFU's 383rd Separate UAV Regiment at #Khmelnitsky. The facility was allegedly used to store strike and reconnaissance drones.
🔹#Russia's Border Areas:
▪️ Ukrainian formations shelled the border village of #Gornal in Suzhansk district, as well as the village of #Elizavetovka and the village of Popovo-Lezhachi in Elizavetovka and the village of Popovo-Lezhachi, Glushkovsky district, #Kursk region.
➖ A gas distribution station was damaged by the impact. Problems with electricity supply are observed in #Krasnooktyabrsky and #Volfino.▪️ Also, the Ukrainian terrorist forces shelled the villages of Stary Khutor, #Poroz, #Staroselye, and Novaya Tavolzhanka in the border districts of the #Belgorod region.
➖ The strike damaged power lines and three households, a 12-year-old girl was killed and another person is in intensive care.🔹#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Kupyansk area, the RF Armed Forces have taken control of the village of #Gryanikovka, north of #Kupyansk, knocking Ukrainian militants out of the settlement. The enemy attempted a counterattack with artillery and aviation, but was pushed back to its initial positions.
➖ Russian fighters are advancing on the AFU bridgehead at the right bank of the #Oskol River. The enemy is relocating reserve battalions of the Territorial Defence to the site, reinforcing the defensive line.▪️ In the #Liman section, Ukrainian formations are preparing to defend at the line #Makeyevka - Zhuravka Balka - #Terny - #Yampolovka - #Torskoye. Artillery duels are taking place all along the front.
🔹#Soledar (#Bakhmut) Direction (MAP):
▪️ South of #Paraskoviyeivka, Wagner PMC assault squads are fighting hard for #Berkhovka. The village is a transit point for supplies to the #Bakhmut Garrison, so the enemy so the enemy is fiercely resisting in this area. To the north of the village, Russian fighters have taken one of the heights, advancing deep into the AFU defences.
➖ In addition, the "Wagnerians" expanded their zone of control in the #Stupki area. This has improved the tactical position of the RF Armed Forces on the northern outskirts of #Bakhmut.▪️ In #Bakhmut, heavy fighting is taking place in the area of the Champagne Wine Factory. On the southern and southwestern outskirts of the city, the "Wagnerians" have dislodged the enemy from positions near Radyansky Lane and expanded their zone of control in the area of the Mariupol cemetery.
▪️ Southwest of #Bakhmut, the AFU was able to push back Russian units from the #Bakhmut - #Konstantinovka highway. Battles unfolded on the approaches to the road.
🔹#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ The Ukrainian terrorist forces continue to hit the civilian infrastructure of #Donetsk. In the capital of the DPR, a massive strike from the Grad MLRS damaged more than 15 houses and many administrative buildings, the Central Market, educational institutions and the prosecutor's office building. At least nine people were injured.
➖ Petrovsky district is partially de-energised due to damage to eight transformer stations.🔹#Kherson Direction on Southern Front:
▪️ Mutual shelling with the use of howitzer and rocket artillery continues along the entire frontline. The RF Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on targets in #Kherson, #Tyaginka, #Burgunka, #Antonovka and #Ochakov.
➖ In turn, the Ukrainian terrorist forces struck at the bakery plant in #Tavriysk.
https://t.me/sitreports/4762
Posted by: Down South | Feb 20 2023 3:58 utc | 99
🇲🇩🤜🇷🇺 Russian troops must leave Transnistria, and the region itself will be demilitarized, - new Prime Minister of Moldova"There we must achieve a fundamental thing, demilitarization. After that, everything else follows, and the economic and social integration of our citizens who are there is very important, but demilitarization is at the forefront, it depends on several things, but at some point it will. We are in a period of geopolitical tectonic movements, and under these conditions, I am sure, all parties will understand that this must be done" said Dorin Rechan
According to him, a hybrid war is going on in Moldova, where Moscow “is trying to seize the democratic processes, and one cannot pretend that the dangers are unreal, that there is no need to strengthen the capabilities to protect the country.”
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/34175
Posted by: Down South | Feb 20 2023 4:02 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Someone ought to write a book about the run up to this war. Most of the material needed to understand the machinations of all players is publicly available. The meeting of Stoltenberg and Zelenskyy sounds alarming. Did they discuss pipelines in Ukraine and Baltic?
Posted by: Wokechoke | Feb 19 2023 15:27 utc | 1