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The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Saturday, February 19, 2022
From the Reuters summary of Saturday, February 19, 2022:
Russia's President Vladimir Putin was set to oversee exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces on Saturday as Western leaders gathered in Munich, fearful that he could order troops massed on Ukraine's border to invade at any time.
Russian-backed separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine declared a full military mobilisation, a day after ordering women and children to evacuate to Russia, citing the threat of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces. Kyiv flatly denied the accusation and Washington said it was part of Russia's plan to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine. read more
Multiple explosions could be heard on Saturday morning in the north of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a Reuters witness said.
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Separatist authorities on Friday announced plans to evacuate around 700,000 people, citing fears of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces – an accusation Kyiv flatly denied.
Less than 7,000 people had been evacuated from Donetsk as of Saturday morning, the local emergencies ministry said. Russian news agencies said later 10,000 evacuees had arrived in Russia.
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Hours after the evacuation announcement, a jeep exploded outside a rebel government building in the city of Donetsk and Russian news agencies said two explosions hit Luhansk, one of the main cities in Ukraine's breakaway People's Republic of Luhansk, and part of a gas pipeline in the area caught fire.
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was at the annual Munich Security Conference where he meet U.S. VP Kamala Harris, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and others. He also held a speech which included this obvious lie:
Ukraine consistently implements the Normandy agreements and the Minsk agreements. Their foundation is the unquestionable recognition of the territorial integrity and independence of our state. We seek a diplomatic settlement of the armed conflict. Note: solely on the basis of international law.
The Minsk agreements, which the UN Security Council endorsed, require Kiev to negotiate with the Donbas government and to implement new legislation:
The [first] agreement failed to stop fighting, and was thus followed with a revised and updated agreement, Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015. This agreement consisted of a package of measures, including a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to certain areas of Donbas and restoring control of the state border to the Ukrainian government.
The former German chancellor Angela Merkel and the former French president François Hollande Kiev have since confirmed that Kiev did not attempt to fulfill the agreement but used it to win time to train and arm its military.
Zelensky also said this:
I want to believe that the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 will be more effective than the Budapest Memorandum.
Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly – we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this.
Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees.
Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.
The Budapest Memorandum gives very vague security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nuclear weapons that the Soviet Union had stationed in that state. (Ukraine had tried to break the codes that protected the weapons but did not succeed.) Ukraine's membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty followed from the Budapest Memorandum. When Zelenski says the "package decisions of 1994 are in doubt" he threatens to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and to pursue nuclear weapons.
Ukraine has several nuclear energy reactors, access to nuclear fuel, well trained nuclear experts and missile technology expertise. It might take a year or two but Ukraine could indeed build deployable nuclear weapons.
The mentioning of an eventual denunciation of the Budapest Memorandum during the Munich Security Conference was taken by Russia as a threat.
The Donetsk News Agency reported that western Donetsk was, since February 17, under heavy fire:
The shelling incidents were reported from 11.47 a.m. until 12.22 p.m., the total of 46 mortar and grenade launcher rounds hit the city. The fire originated from the direction of Krasnogorovka.
The DPR has been under attack since 5.30 a.m. today, a wide range of weapons is used.
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of Saturday, February 19 2022 and Sunday, February 20 2022 without separating both days in its verbal description. However the graphic showing the number of observed incidents attached to the report separates both days. The number of total ceasefire violations and explosions on Saturday was again increased from the previous day. Artillery exchanges took place along many parts of the front.
In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the SMM recorded 2,158 ceasefire violations, including 1,100 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the Mission recorded 1,073 ceasefire violations, including 926 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 975 ceasefire violations in the region.
Both sides continued to position heavy weapons:
Withdrawal of weapons
In government-controlled areas of Donetsk region, the Mission saw four howitzers in violation of withdrawal lines. It also spotted 12 howitzers, one surface-to-air missile system and one multiple launch rocket system in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Beyond withdrawal lines but outside designated storage sites, the SMM saw 41 tanks and 14 howitzers in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including in two training areas.
Indications of military and military-type presence in the security zone
The Mission saw nine armoured combat vehicles in government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as five armoured combat vehicles in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk region.
On 19 February, while in Prokhorivka (government-controlled, 53km south of Donetsk), the Mission saw one light utility truck (GAZ-66) equipped with antennas, assessed as used for flying mid-range UAVs, stationary about 100m north of the road. It also observed two Ukrainian Armed forces soldiers near the truck.
The evacuation of civilians from the Donbas region continued:
Gatherings of people and convoys in Donetsk and Luhansk regions
Over the reporting period, in various locations in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Mission saw people gathering and several convoys of cars and buses (some of which bearing signs with “evacuation” written on them) driving eastwards with passengers (mostly women, children, and the elderly).
On Saturday the numbers of ceasefire violations did increase over those on Friday by some 30%. The number of recorded explosions held steady.
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The map shows ceasefire violations in yellow, orange to red colors. Most of these appear on the side of the Donbas republics. The source of most of the ceasefire violations, like noise of shooting or explosions recorded by cameras, drones or heard by the observers, is listed as 'undetermined'.
The map shows explosions, as small black dots, on both sides of the ceasefire line for Saturday and Sunday. While only few of the hundreds of explosions were located and marked on the map a count of the black dots shows some evenness with 25 impacts marked on the Donbas side and 28 on the government controlled side of the ceasefire line.
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Several sources document that Putin will make an hour long, significant speech at 1200 Moscow time on 21 Feb…
Russian media have been requested to broadcast the speech live to all of Russia.
Two bloggers…. Empire https://oliverboydbarrett.substack.com
reports on various aspects of Ukraine
Signs of some kind of pathology are surely present from the get-go when we are talking about a jewish comedian who has chosen to surround himself with Banderite neonazis who celebrate a heritage that includes the massacre of tens of thousands of jews.
The issue of pathology is suddenly foregrounded in the grimmest possible way upon learning of increasing evidence that the collective west is instructing their Kiev proxy that Ukraine cannot depend on the current level of western aid beyond next summer.
Indeed, for several months now the evidence has shown that the volume and quality of western aid has been tapering off. This could of course all be a complex ruse to lull the Russians into a false sense of security.
I dont think this is probable, first of all because the evidence of a crisis in supplies to western countries of tanks, armored vehicles, air-defense systems, fighter jets, missiles and other ammunition comes at us from diverse directions and appears to be evident in the battlefield.
Secondly, it is not at all clear that things would be that much different on the battlefield if these western supplies were not under strain.
Thirdly, I dont think the Russians are giving much indication that they are liable to be lulled into a false sense of security any time soon. What else can you say about an opponent who allows most of its fighting to be done by a private army that recruits prisoners, in conjunction with local militia, and Chechnyans, and whose regular army force of 300,000-500,000 is amassing along Russian and Belurussian borders in potential preparation for a lethal assault, one that could include occupation of the entire country, and whose casualty rates – at between 14,000 to 20,000, according to the BBC – are at the very least five times less than those of Ukraine?
Simplicius 76 …. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed
Analyzes the upcoming Russian Offensive….
Since we’re getting so close to approaching the nail-biting period of February 21 – 24 that so many are anticipating, I figured it’ll be good to compile all the recent, top developments regarding the potential for a new ‘major’ Russian offensive. Some of them have already been mentioned in a previous update, but we’ll cite them again to centralize all relevant materials.
1. First, there are two reputable channels which are now confirming major actions are coming within a week. Romanov Lite, who many of you know, is a Crimean based commentator who also works with some Russian/Donbass units, helping supply them and is often seen on the lines with them, often has insider info as he speaks directly to the troops. He posted this message that it is soon GO TIME:
2. Then, another reputable channel issued this urgent call of alarm:
“From “2 Majors” TG Channel:
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Residents of Ukraine
Everyone understands that the past month, during which the Russian Armed Forces seized the initiative, was a preparation . Open sources mention the Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov and Zaporizhia as possible directions for an offensive.
People living in these territories can see for themselves signs of how the AFU are preparing these cities and areas for defense. The area is being mined, fortifications are being built, military columns and buses with mercenaries are moving.
The Ukrainian command has good intelligence from American satellites, processed by experienced analytical centers.
But official Kiev does not announce the evacuation of the population. Because fortified areas are being built in cities and the civilian population will once again become a human shield. Evacuation in Kupyansk was announced after the Russian Armed Forces approached the city at 7-10 km.
It is absolutely necessary for Ukrainians to leave these cities. The Russian Armed Forces will no longer conduct a police operation. Such nonsense as it was in Mariupol, when the position of an enemy sniper/machine gunner could not be demolished because in a dilapidated five-story building “there can be civilians”, will no longer apply.
And after all the horrific videos of tortures and shootings of our soldiers, the joyful reaction of a large number of Ukrainians to them, the attitude of soldiers and officers to “peaceful population” has changed somewhat.”
3. Recently we had the first ever confirmation—with actual photographic evidence—of Russian force buildups on Ukraine’s border resembling those of pre-Feb. 2022. Here are satellite photos of one of them; there are reportedly such camps in Kursk and Voronezh regions, which are directly above Sumy and Kharkov oblasts of Ukraine.
4. There are now several reports of large field hospitals being constructed in at least two different regions, again reminiscent of exactly what happened last time prior to the start of the SMO. And a senior lieutenant of the AFU stated that 10,000 Russian troops have amassed across the border from Sumy.
Senior Lieutenant of the Armed Forces Andrey Gulakov for The Times
According to him, the invaders built a field hospital there, and this is an indicator that the Russians are planning offensive actions, as they did last year.
Also, you can see in the above post that Russians have reportedly laid gravel on the routes along the border, nullifying the rasputitsa problems.
5. A massive 80km long convoy of Russian army supply trucks is reported to be currently in transit slowly through mud between Mariupol & Berdiansk, according to ‘advisor to the mayor of Mariupol’ Petro Andryuschenko. Keep in mind this is the exiled Ukrainian ‘ex-advisor’ to the previous Mariupol administration prior to its liberation.
6. Ukrainian MP Goncharenko claims that in far western Belarus, a group of ‘Wagner’ soldiers were spotted.
7. And buses reportedly full of 1700 Wagner soldiers are being sent toward Zaporozhe (one of the imminent lines of attack in the coming offensive):
8. Russian Buks and other AD is also seen moving from the Mariupol direction toward the likely offensive vectors:
10. We reported the alleged numbers last time, but will collate it here again:
“The Russian Federation has prepared 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era self-propelled guns, such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters for the upcoming massive attack on Ukraine .
Specifically, in light of the 700-750 jets and helicopters, there are also rumors circulating on Ukrainian airwaves that Russian airforce will not only operate in a wholly new doctrine in the coming offensive, but have already been seen doing this recently.
“Previously, the aviation was protected, it almost did not fly into the zone of action of the Ukrainian air defense. Now they decided to change the tactics,” says the interlocutor of the journalists. According to the journalist’s source, the Russian Federation still has an advantage in aviation over the Armed Forces. Despite the fact that Russian planes and helicopters will be shot down en masse, this will create certain problems for the Ukrainian army.”
The ‘new doctrine’ entails the usage of Russian airpower incursions much deeper into the heart of Ukrainian land, rather than skirting the edges of the contact lines for fear of being shot down, as they do now.
There are claims that in the past couple of weeks, Russian jets have already been doing this, as well as “new types of drones.” Not only have a few interesting videos turned up—one of them showing a Russian Su-24M flying over Kherson at an altitude high enough to suggest it had zero fear of AD (i.e. 3000-5000ft rather than the usual 100-300ft), but also a few days ago the AFU complained that some sort of new ‘long range’ and ‘high altitude’ set of drones were flying deep over their territory in the following route:
They said they flew at upwards of 18,000 – 20,000ft which is extremely high for most of the types of drones in this conflict. This coincided with a large Russian loitering drone strike only days later which was carried out by some “new type” of drone with a notably different sonic pattern than the famous Shahed/Geran/Dorito ‘lawnmower’ noise. These drones had a much ‘deeper’ motor sound suggestive of perhaps a larger or more powerful drone.
And this was at the head of reports that Iran had delivered several new types of “larger drones” to Russia, which we mentioned in a previous writeup, likely the Shahed-129 and more Mohajer-6’s as well as some claim maybe Shahed-171. Of course, it’s all speculation for now.
But the interesting thing about that flight pattern posted in an above graphic, which is straight from Ukrainian channels themselves, is that it shows a deep observation into the deepest rear areas of AFU. And on the eve of a potential large-scale military action, it suggests a probing and reconnaissance of AFU’s critical rear areas to prepare mass strikes on them in the coming days.
Apparently, Russia has been utilizing far more direct precision (PGM) missile strikes onto Ukrainian positions. This has major significance for two reasons: firstly, long ago, Russian strikes were often in two main camps of short range ‘tactical’ level artillery of various sorts, and long range ‘strategic’ level cruise missile strikes onto critical infrastructure, launched by heavy bombers etc. But this represents a shift into vital medium range striking abilities, with Russian jets like Su-24m’s, Su-30, Su-34, etc., likely launching these newly ramped missiles onto tactical-level targets just in the rear of frontline units.
There are a variety of proofs to substantiate this. Not only have we seen several videos of Dmitry Medvedev touring Russian missile factories that produce exactly these munitions, in announcement of the vast ramping up of their productions (here and here).
But videos recently began to emerge reportedly showing Su-34’s more actively firing such medium range air-to-ground PGM’s into AFU positions (here and here).
And also were the repeated recent warnings of Russian forces employing “new tactics” such as air balloons with reflectors attached to confuse/expend Ukrainian AD, as well as increasingly more complex waves of dummy ‘decoy missiles’.
So, adding those things together, we can see that in the upcoming escalations, Russia will likely be employing their airforce (the totality of airpower, including new drones) in increasingly active ways to demolish a depleted Ukrainian army. One of the reasons it’s certain they’ll be doing this is because contrary to UA sources, the Ukrainian air defense network is close to nonexistent at this point.
Ukraine’s AD network is in DIRE condition. And I believe this is the reason that Russian airforce is beginning to step up and operate with more impunity. And once even MORE fixed-wing/rotary pieces join the fray, it will create the compounding effects I spoke of last time, and should completely overpower the remaining AD and wreak havoc on the AFU. And this goes with the mentioned ‘rumors’ that the next phase will feature a much more offensively active RuAF.
So…. is the balloon about to go up???
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 19 2023 23:54 utc | 52
“…history teaches us that this is not so, that when amerika is displaced, another nation will replace them and the best that any of the smaller nation states can hope for is some type of favoured satrap status…” debsisdead
There has never been an Empire like this one. There has never been a capitalist empire, wrapping its tentacles around the entire globe, before this one. There has never been an empire which has made such a profound impact upon the environmment of the planet, before this one.
Nothing has come even close.
There has never been a society, dominated by an empire, of the same size-8 billions-or anywhere close to that magnitude. And there has never been a society in which almost instantaneous communication between people living in Australasia, America, Europe and across Asia has been possible, let alone easy.
What are meant by previous empires? There have been some but they have been much smaller, more local: there was an Iroquois Empire, Abyssinia had an empire, Egypt, Greece, the Mongols and the Moguls all had empires. There have been empires in China for millennia. Then there was the Roman Empire. And many others.
What makes this Empire unique is that is has evolved, never falling but changing shape while retaining its basic character, from the Iberian empires, one fastened onto America, the other also onto Asia, to the Dutch, to the British to the current iteration.
What could be happening now is not-as the imperialist insist and cynics agree- the substitution of one empire for another. The displacement of Washington and Wall St and its replacement in the form of Beijing and Shanghai (or New Delhi and Mumbai) is unlikely. Washington inherited the evolved capitalist maritime empire centred on London.
It is being challenged by BRICS, who are the largest powers among those nations which, having been plundered and humiliated by the Empire, have freed themselves from its trammels. Or are freeing themselves- from its banks, its currency, its culture, its economics, developing substitutes where needed and cleaning up what has become tainted to the point of being poisonous.
They can only do this by mobilising their populations and the populations of the rest of the post colonial world, including the aboriginals displaced by the settler colonies. To do this, to mobilise the masses to insist on their humanity and their dignity, it is going to be necessary to involve them, materially, intellectually and spiritually in the anti-imperialist project which is barely begun.
If the Empire falls, a consummation devoutly to be desired, it will not rise again because the force that brings it down will not submit to the genocidal racism, cannibalistic exploitation and rule by greedy ‘elites’ which has characterised and disfigured human history in the past five centuries, in particular.
As Frederick the Great wanted, humanity’s enemies all have ‘one neck’ now. And there are eight thousand million hands (x2) to wring it.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 1:24 utc | 68
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