The Buildup To War In Ukraine - Wednesday, February 16, 2022
On the even of February 15 the Russian Foreign Ministry released information about a phone call between Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. CGTN reported on February 16:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday called on the U.S. to drop aggressive rhetoric in dialogue on security guarantees and demonstrate pragmatic approach to this topic, state-owned Tass news agency reports.Lavrov held a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in which the Russian diplomat stressed the need to continue working together.
"On our part, it was stressed that it is necessary to continue joint work, as was agreed by Presidents [of Russia Vladimir] Putin and [of the United States Joe] Biden during their telephone call on February 12, in the context of the US and NATO proposals on security guarantees," TASS quotes the Russian foreign ministry.
"Lavrov specially stressed the inadmissibility of aggressive rhetoric fanned by Washington and its closest allies and called for a pragmatic dialogue on the entire spectrum of issues raised by Russia, with a focus on the principle of indivisible security."
Russia had previously sent demands for talks on several issues to the U.S. and NATO. The most important point for Russia had been the term 'indivisible security' in the sense that security for one side should not interfere with the security of the other side.
This term is included in several treaties with Russia. It claimed that the expansion of NATO was threatening its security and thereby breaching those treaties. While the U.S. denied this, it is obvious that all NATO expansion were increasing the potential danger for Russia. Russia and NATO were thus put into a classic security dilemma:
In international relations, the security dilemma (also referred to as the spiral model) is when the increase in one state's security (such as increasing its military strength) leads other states to fear for their own security (because they do not know if the security-increasing state intends to use its growing military for offensive purposes). Consequently, security-increasing measures can lead to tensions, escalation or conflict with one or more other parties, producing an outcome which no party truly desires; a political instance of the prisoner's dilemma.
The U.S. had responded to the Russian paper by conceding on some minor points that Russia had long demanded but not on any of the big questions of which the most important one was 'indivisible security'.
On February 2 2022 I had described the process in detail:
[I]n mid December Russia started to counter the U.S. move. It published two draft treaties, one with the U.S. and one with NATO, that included stringent security demands:
- No more NATO expansion towards Russia's borders.
- Retraction of the 2008 NATO invitation to Ukraine and Georgia.
- Removal of foreign NATO forces from east Europe.
- Legally binding guarantee that no strike systems which could target Moscow will be deployed in countries near to Russia.
- No NATO or equivalent (UK, U.S., Pl.) 'exercises' near Russian borders.
- NATO ships, planes to keep certain distances from Russian borders.
- Regular military-to-military talks.
- No U.S. nukes in Europe.
Russia requested written responses and threatened to take 'military technical' measures should the responses be negative. Russia also planned for and launched new military exercises.
The responses were received but, following a U.S. request, Russia refrained from publishing them. They were leaked to El Pais, published today and can be downloaded here (pdf).
The U.S. response to Russia's draft treaties is professional. While it rejects Russia's main demands, especially a neutral status for the Ukraine, it concedes on minor issues and offers additional talks on them. The NATO response is in contrast highly ideological and rejects all of Russia's points while making new demands towards Russia which are designed to be rejected. (Future negotiations are now likely to exclude NATO.)
Russia has yet to officially respond to the received letters. During a news conference after talks with the Prime Minister of Hungary the Russian President remarked on the letters:
[W]hile ignoring our concerns, the United States and NATO are referring to the right of states to freely choose specific methods to ensure their security. But this is not only about providing someone with the right to freely choose methods to ensure their security. This is only one part of the well-known indivisible security formula. The second inalienable part implies that it is impossible to strengthen anyone’s security at the expense of other states’ security.Russia's Foreign Ministry has send a letter to several NATO countries in which it requests their official opinions on several agreements they have signed which include clauses on the indivisibility of security:
The very essence of the agreements on indivisible security is that either there is security for all or there is no security for anyone.How is the signing of those treaties and indivisible security for all compatible with the aggressive NATO expansion aimed at Russia? 'Western' foreign ministries will find it difficult to answer that question.
France 24 listed some of its relevant headlines of the day:
- Ukraine crisis: Moscow announces end of Crimea drills, NATO unconvinced
- Russia's parliament asks Putin to recognise breakaway east Ukrainian regions
- Ukraine crisis: Russian pullout meets Western allies scepticism
- 'Day of Unity': Ukrainians raise flags to defy Russia invasion fear
- NATO says Russia appears to be continuing military escalation in Ukraine
- NATO chief says Russia appears to be continuing military build-up around Ukraine
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of February 16 that the number of ceasefire violations had suddenly jumped to above average. Artillery exchanges took place on many parts of the front.
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 189 ceasefire violations, including 128 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 24 ceasefire violations in the region.In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 402 ceasefire violations, including 188 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 129 ceasefire violations in the region.
On February 16 the observers noticed several self propelled howitzer (2S1 Govzdika, 122 mm) in violation of withdrawal lines. Four were seen on the Ukrainian government side and two on the non-government side.
After three days that had been more or less quite the sudden jump in fighting was particularly noticeable.
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The map shows explosions, the small black dots, on both sides of the ceasefire line.
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Posted by b on February 16, 2023 at 16:45 UTC | Permalink
next page »hey b - i can't keep up!! thanks for doing this.. i think it is fantastic!
Posted by: james | Feb 16 2023 17:26 utc | 2
Nothing more to say than excellent work. Thank you so much for your labor!!!
Posted by: Walter | Feb 16 2023 17:40 utc | 3
Looks like CNN has already got their talking points from White House on what will be preached at the 1 year anniversary speeches:
- Russia is losing, has always been losing and will forever lose
- Russia is a "pariah" state (their new fancy meme word LoL)
- Peace will come at negotiating table on zelenskys decision
- west must convince Putin that he is losing
- Russia is sending mostlt untrained conscripts and convits to front lines to die
- NATO is teaching Ukraine how to fight "smart" and without ammo LoL
- NATO tanks are incoming (they are not)
Oh and btw looks like US is taking Kamala out of the ice box and sending her to the Munich Conference. That will be good for a few laughs. LOL
Posted by: Comandante | Feb 16 2023 17:47 utc | 4
Interesting read.
Of course, knowing what we know now, it was all theatre.
US was 100% pushing Ukraine into war no matter what Russia did.
Russia may, or may not, have known this but I suspect they did know it.
So, what else is occurring right now that is purely theatre?
Rumors are an all out Article 5 NATO invasion of Russia/Belarus is imminent sometime this year and Russia knows it.
No matter what US/EU/NATO claim.
Posted by: Mar man | Feb 16 2023 17:56 utc | 5
These daily recaps of the lead up to the start of the SMO in Ukraine are brilliant b and thank you for them......if only they could get broad readership....sigh
Security for all or none......barbarism or socialism, isn't that still the question?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 16 2023 17:58 utc | 6
Thee is something childishly transparent-probably because it was merely aimed at deceiving public opinion- in the deceitfulness of the US response to Russia's eminently reasonable requests for an end to NATO expansion.
While, officially, the US argued that NATO was only accommodating itself to the urgent demands of eastern European nations begging for inclusion in a defensive pact, in reality the US and its allied governments were pulling out all the stops in efforts to ramp up Russophobia in Europe.
As many posters here have told us there was nothing natural about the development of this Russophobia- the presence of Soviet troops had not led to any more friction between the locals and the foreign forces than is normal in such circumstances. There was a lot of residual goodwill towards Russians as people and Russian culture for its undeniable magnificence.
It took much work, large amounts of money and many "scholarships"-at a time when education was becoming increasingly expensive for Americans- to produce the generation of quislings which currently licks American boots for political office. A generation that has ditched Turgenev and Dostoevsky for Nathaniel Hawthorne and Fennimore Cooper.
But it also involved a revival of the 'Left Behind' cadres, a revival of the hardcore fascism sponsored by the CIA, which the PR sensitive US had proclaimed was dead and tamed in the Christian/Social Democrat parties it patronised.
As we have seen in Ukraine the fascist revival- consciously sponsored by north America- has been proceeding at full bore. While the Canadian government talked reassuringly of the development of democracy, the Embassy in Kiev was used by terrorists while NATO agent provocateur/snipers were firing into the Maidan crowds. The programme was to install governments that would demand NATO membership and then to claim that responding positively was nothing more than recognising their sovereignty.
This crisis, designed to lead to war, has been carefully planned by the west's and humanity's most deadly enemies, for whom the deaths of billions would be no loss.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 16 2023 17:59 utc | 7
Posted by: Mar man | Feb 16 2023 17:56 utc | 4
Rumors are an all out Article 5 NATO invasion of Russia/Belarus is imminent sometime this year and Russia knows it.
I, for one, look forward to seeing the Red Army flag hoisted over the EU parliament buildings ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 16 2023 18:00 utc | 8
Arch Bungle no. 7
Maybe not so much a rumour:
"President Alexander Lukashenko warns Belarus will fight alongside Russia in Ukraine if his country is attacked."
Aljazeera
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Feb 16 2023 18:03 utc | 9
you would think that the concept of 'indivisible security' is crystal clear, but it went over the heads of everyone I tried talking to about it. I was amazed how many people just didn't get it or didn't care to ponder on it.
Posted by: nathan in WA US | Feb 16 2023 18:09 utc | 10
The very essence of the agreements on indivisible security is that either there is security for all or there is no security for anyone.
Indivisible security and MAD are so 1969. It's the 21st century now. We have the rule based order. It's basically a junior high order. The bully empire makes the rules and everybody either submits or gets beaten. You don't go to the bully and his gang and say "I won't give you my lunch money and you won't beat me up, because of an indivisible security whatever". Even trying that is silly.
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 16 2023 18:10 utc | 11
From AZ channel:
Request from the editorial office of the Live24 edition and response:
Evgeny Viktorovich, a video is being distributed on the network in which the fighters of the Wagner PMCs appeal to colleagues from the Ministry of Defense with a request to resume the supply of ammunition. According to them, at the moment, they are "cut off from supplies" and "this will affect the entire course of the war."
Can you comment?
We publish a comment by Evgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin:
"Pay attention to the fact that these wonderful fighters are heroes who are dying for our Motherland, they did not call anyone indecent words, and in no way discredited the Ministry of Defense. They simply asked their colleagues for ammunition and gave a detailed list of what was needed.
I can say that this has already borne some fruit. For example, Apti (Alaudinov - approx. the press service), whom I just met at the Moscow hospital, is now handing us one hundred and twenty-eight 120-millimeter mines and forty tank shells. Not on loan, but free of charge.
As for normal supplies, I have visited all the offices I know in Moscow and I will continue to do this until the guys get everything they need. Even if they put handcuffs on me in one of the offices, they will put me in jail for the so-called "discrediting the army."
Posted by: rk | Feb 16 2023 18:12 utc | 12
For those who are more interested in the future than in endless explications of whatever has happened here's yet another excellent substack article by Simplicius:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/all-seeing-eye-can-russia-break-through
This guy is by far the best English-speaking writer on this war.
Posted by: Zebra | Feb 16 2023 18:14 utc | 13
«Russia and NATO were thus put into a classic security dilemma:
“In international relations, the security dilemma (also referred to as the spiral model) is when the increase in one state's security (such as increasing its military strength) leads other states to fear for their own security (because they do not know if the security-increasing state intends to use its growing military for offensive purposes).”»
Oh please there was not and there is not any "security dilemma" between the USA, UK, etc. and the RF, or between Poland and Ukraine and the RF either: the USA etc. want the RF to be less secure, to the point of regime-change or breakup, even at some (or in the case of Ukraine very high) cost to their own security.
The USA etc. goal does not seem to me to be more security via peaceful coexistence with RF and PRC, it seems to be more hegemony by vanquishing and dominating the RF and PRC.
This is in international politics an entirely legitimate goal, and the request by the RF and PRC governments for reciprocal respect and "indivisible security" seems to me wishful thinking. The USA principle is "Winners do whatever it takes".
This does not mean that the USA is "agreement incapable": the USA will respect agreements in which it makes a profit, and will forget them the moment they stop making it.
What are the RF ad PRC going to offer the USA etc. in exchange for the favour of being left alone? "Indivisible security" does not come as a free gift.
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:17 utc | 14
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:17 utc | 14
This does not mean that the USA is "agreement incapable": the USA will respect agreements in which it makes a profit, and will forget them the moment they stop making it.
Give me one example?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 16 2023 18:21 utc | 15
@Mar man | Feb 16 2023 17:56 utc | 4
Rumors are an all out Article 5 NATO invasion of Russia/Belarus is imminent sometime this year and Russia knows it.Is that how Article 5 works these days? If one NATO country attacks a non-NATO country, then all of NATO must join in the attack?
No matter what US/EU/NATO claim.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 16 2023 18:22 utc | 16
War, brought to the world by the exact same people causing and managing by coverup the Ohio rail disaster.
But they are saints in Ukraine? When war is for profit?
The US is dead. Utterly bankrupt and corrupted.
Posted by: Rjb1.5 | Feb 16 2023 18:23 utc | 17
UNITED NATIONS -- The European Union on Wednesday circulated the resolution to be voted on by the U.N. General Assembly on the eve of next week’s first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling for a cessation of hostilities and a peace that ensures Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.”
UN draft resolution calls for ceasefire in Ukraine and peace
Ha. Ha. Ha.
Someone needs a re-supply break it seems ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 16 2023 18:26 utc | 18
Is that how Article 5 works these days? If one NATO country attacks a non-NATO country, then all of NATO must join in the attack?
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 16 2023 18:22 utc | 16
They make the rules. They can do whatever they want.
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 16 2023 18:31 utc | 19
Posted by: bevin | Feb 16 2023 17:59 utc | 6
«officially, the US argued that NATO was only accommodating itself to the urgent demands of eastern European nations begging for inclusion in a defensive pact, in reality the US and its allied governments were pulling out all the stops in efforts to ramp up Russophobia in Europe.»
Indeed, my usual quote:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-s-ex-president-petro-poroshenko-the-army-is-like-my-child-1.4885308
«The idea of Nato was “not very popular in Ukraine” to start, Poroshenko says, with just 16 per cent of Ukrainians supporting integration to Nato in 2013 right before he was elected president – but by the time he finished his term, 61 per cent did.»
«It took much work, large amounts of money and many "scholarships"-at a time when education was becoming increasingly expensive for Americans- to produce the generation of quislings which currently licks American boots for political office.»
That too, but fanatical kremlinistas do not like to realize that even people like me who have a very cynical view of the USA as not quite the "beacon of freedom and democracy" of propaganda would conclude that being an USA vassal is probably better (for some categories of states) than being "independent" or an RF vassal or PRC client.
Because USA vassalage offers several big advantages (for developed, resource-poor states) that the USA grants only to their vassals, like easier exports to their enormous internal market and their giant network of resource-rich countries they control.
The alternative to USA vassalage are not to be "independent" and trade with both USA and RF and PRC spheres of influence, because the USA have every right to exclude from the benefits of their sphere of influence any state that plays all sides without any loyalty to on, they are:
* To be in the RF sphere of influence, and excluded from the USA one. That is indeed not too bad, it is a pretty decent choice especially for states near the RF, but the RF and the resources it controls are not as rich and big as those of the USA.
* To be in the PRC sphere of influence, and excluded from the USA one. That also is not too bad now, especially for less developed resource-exporting countries, but *currently* the PRC and the resources it controls are not as rich and big as those of the USA; also the PRC economic policy is one of hard-nosed export-oriented mercantilism, while that of both USA and RF is to welcome imports of goods and services.
Also in both cases it is no fun to be the target of USA sanctions and constant regime-change attempts, while USA vassals are not targeted by RF or PRC sanctions or attempts at regime-change.
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:36 utc | 20
Vikichka | Feb 16 2023 18:31 utc | 19
That's right, history shows that they make the rules. Article 5 is open to interpretation, as far as I understand.
Posted by: Sektion2B | Feb 16 2023 18:37 utc | 21
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:36 utc | 20
* To be in the PRC sphere of influence, and excluded from the USA one. ... but *currently* the PRC and the resources it controls are not as rich and big as those of the USA;
You mean like with rare earth minerals?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 16 2023 18:41 utc | 22
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:36 utc | 20
Because USA vassalage offers several big advantages (for developed, resource-poor states) that the USA grants only to their vassals, like easier exports to their enormous internal market and their giant network of resource-rich countries they control.
I think Germany now, and Japan during the plaza accords would disagree with you on that score.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 16 2023 18:44 utc | 23
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 16 2023 18:10 utc | 11
«You don't go to the bully and his gang and say "I won't give you my lunch money and you won't beat me up, because of an indivisible security whatever". Even trying that is silly.»
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:17 utc | 14
«the request by the RF and PRC governments for reciprocal respect and "indivisible security" seems to me wishful thinking. The USA principle is "Winners do whatever it takes".»
I am pleased that others like "Vikichka" know of "realpolitik" as described so long ago by the athenian ambassadors to Melos or by this very short and humorous philosophical introduction to international politics:
https://www.existentialcomics.com/comic/307
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:45 utc | 24
@Blissex
Because USA vassalage offers several big advantages (for developed, resource-poor states) that the USA grants only to their vassals, like easier exports to their enormous internal market and their giant network of resource-rich countries they control.
Very true, but there is always a heavy price to pay. Sort of the way paying protection money to the mob seems like a fair deal initially, but eventually, you may end up being owned by them. Or have your legs broken.
Similarly, as far as regime change, once you give up your sovereignty to gain the security of a protection racket, you've already been "regime changed", you just don't know it.
No doubt though your overall point is on target. The empire makes it very difficult, especially for smaller countries that lack leverage, to resist.
Posted by: Chris | Feb 16 2023 18:54 utc | 25
Posted by: rk | Feb 16 2023 18:12 utc | 12
Very strange, Prigozhin has an indirect but intelligent style, this reads to me like military supplies are being intentionally withheld from Wagner, perhaps to exert a degree of control over Prigozhin, perhaps even to edge Wagner out of the conflict.
Wagner and Kadyrov’s people represent a 100% combat ready force with deniable casualties. Anyone edging them out should be prepared for the consequences if things go wrong without those guys to help out.
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 16 2023 18:55 utc | 26
Prigozhin (re: supply of ammunition): ... "As for normal supplies, I have bypassed every office I know in Moscow and will continue to do so until the boys get everything they need."
WTF is going on at the Ministry of Defense?
Posted by: Sektion2B | Feb 16 2023 19:01 utc | 27
In response to questions above:
Technically, it will be an Article 4 NATO invasion.
Article 4 is the aggressive one.
But, of course, it will be labelled Article 5 to hide the true intent and paint Russia as the agressor.
Remember, Ukraine is not in NATO, yet it seems to be receiving almost everything Article 5 would get an actual member.
No, NATO will attack Belarus or new Russian territory in Ukraine.
We will never know who does this attack. Like Nord Stream.
When Russia counter attacks, THAT will be broadcast all over the world and Article 5 invoked.
Posted by: Mar man | Feb 16 2023 19:03 utc | 28
Security for all or none......barbarism or socialism, isn't that still the question?Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 16 2023 17:58 utc | 5
No, it is slightly more socialism vs slightly less socialism for most of us.
And incrementally more totalitarianism for everyone, a consistent trend since 2001.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 16 2023 19:04 utc | 29
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 18:45 utc | 24
Funny and true! At least this time around its not about a woman.
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 16 2023 19:13 utc | 30
Canada 'All In' with Ukraine. Especially its fake-left 'opposition' NDP party. Why I don't vote.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 16 2023 19:18 utc | 31
“Because USA vassalage offers several big advantages (for developed, resource-poor states) that the USA grants only to their vassals [...] network of resource-rich countries they control.”
Posted by: Chris | Feb 16 2023 18:54 utc | 25
«Very true, but there is always a heavy price to pay.»
The USA offer different types of "protection" deals:
* Resource-poor small developed states ("operetta kingdoms"): not that big a price, just follow USA "steering" in military and foreign matters ("suzerainty") and give a chunk of the economy to USA transnationals, keep close to the "Washington Consensus" in politics but with some flexibility as to more or less (ideally) social-democracy. Range from Portugal to Canada.
* Resource-rich small underdeveloped states ("banana republics"): the price is pretty high indeed though, the USA put in charge of them "our bastards" and squeeze and repress them as hard as they can to loot them, while letting "our bastards" take a cut.
* Resource-poor small underdeveloped states ("shitholes"): the USA are not interested in them either way, except for bribing the local "his own bastard" to give them bases if needed.
What about resource-rich developed states? Potential rivals to squash.
«Sort of the way paying protection money to the mob seems like a fair deal initially»
That's what happened to the UK and France and Norway etc.: as Roosevelt more or less told Churchill "You are going to be my bitch or Adolf's or Stalins's bitch, choose wisely":
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1986/jun/18/foreign-affairs-2#S6CV0099P0_19860618_HOC_479
«When NATO was set up in 1948, the commander of the United States air force who arrived in Britain with the advance guard of the American forces to be stationed here said: "Never before in history has one first-class power gone into another first-class power's country without any agreement. We were just told to come over and 'We shall be pleased to have you'."»
«but eventually, you may end up being owned by them»
The question as always is "What's the alternative?" The best option you got may not be entirely pleasant, but it's still the best option.
«Similarly, as far as regime change, once you give up your sovereignty to gain the security of a protection racket, you've already been "regime changed", you just don't know it.»
I am pretty sure that most english, french, norwegian etc. politicians knew it very well, and Suez taught a hard lesson to those who were slow to understand it.
«No doubt though your overall point is on target. The empire makes it very difficult, especially for smaller countries that lack leverage, to resist.»
There is always for some ruling classes (not all, some are restricted by geopolitics, e.g. most western european) the choice of *which* empire to have as suzerain.
Some ruling classes may well decide that somewhat more independence as RF or PRC vassals is worth somewhat smaller income. Many people in ex-COMECON countries think like that, that life was easier and freer even if less luxurious in soviet times (IRC 60-70% of east germans think that).
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 19:32 utc | 32
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 16 2023 18:21 utc | 15
This does not mean that the USA is "agreement incapable": the USA will respect agreements in which it makes a profit, and will forget them the moment they stop making it.
Give me one example?
Not even one example but a to-do-list...
Niccolo Machiavelli: The Prince
Chapter 18
Should a Prince
Remain True
to his Word?
However, we've seen through experience how many princes in our time have achieved great things who have little cared about keeping their word and have shrewdly known the skill of tricking the minds of men; these princes have overcome those whose actions were founded on honesty and integrity.
[...]
@ Blissex #20
"Because USA vassalage offers several big advantages (for developed, resource-poor states) that the USA grants only to their vassals, like easier exports to their enormous internal market and their giant network of resource-rich countries they control.
Yes, and promise of "security" too
Amerika is wonderful! c'mon "mein Schatz", under my Atomic umbrella
Therefore, a prudent leader will not and should not observe his promises, when such observance will work against him and when the reasons for making the promise are no longer valid. If all men were good, this precept would not be good; but since men are evil and will not keep their word with you, you shouldn't keep your to them. Never has a prince lacked legitimate reasons to break faith. I could give you infinite examples from modern times, and show you numerous peace treaties and promises that have been broken and made completely empty by the faithlessness of princes: these knew well how to use the ways of the fox, and they are the ones who succeed. But it is necessary to know how to hide this nature and to simulate a good character and to dissimulate: for the majority of men are simple and will only follow the needs of the present, so that the deceiver can always find someone he can deceive.
Posted by: Weimar | Feb 16 2023 19:33 utc | 33
isn't the Wagner contract coming up in March?
are re-negotiations in progress?
Posted by: Irish | Feb 16 2023 19:34 utc | 34
anon2020 | Feb 16 2023 18:55 utc | 26
Looks like an inside job in the general staff or a level of stupidity impossible to imagine before 2022.
Posted by: rk | Feb 16 2023 19:48 utc | 35
«a prudent leader will not and should not observe his promises, when such observance will work against him and when the reasons for making the promise are no longer valid.»
And indeed the USA have respected treaties with the USSR and the PRC when that was of advantage to them (the USSR and PRC could enforce them), and ignored them when that advantage stopped.
«Never has a prince lacked legitimate reasons to break faith. I could give you infinite examples from modern times, and show you numerous peace treaties and promises that have been broken and made completely empty by the faithlessness of princes»
After the USSR was vanquished any treaties the USA had with them and became rather "optional", because they are the "beacon of freedom and representative democracy" :-).
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 19:51 utc | 36
haha funny thing that I just noticed :)
Now most say "Don't take putin too serious, he won't go all in"
----
guys we started a Poker game with the russians and now they have a leader that is called "Put in"
Russians take games just too serious :D
Posted by: Macpott | Feb 16 2023 19:59 utc | 37
Posted by: Zebra | Feb 16 2023 18:14 utc | 13
Excellent article. Here's the most important issues, IMHO.
An example is this: up to now, Russia’s airpower has been characterized by many as ‘anemic’, which most don’t realize was due to the small number of forces Russia has actually committed to the conflict thus far. This has reciprocal effects on the function of the entirety of the frontline forces in a given theater. Think of a battle as a sort of eco-system—you’ve seen the famous videos where wolves are introduced into a wildlife preserve, causing a chain reaction of events; whereby the wolf eats the deer which eat the grass, which saps the water from the stream, stifling the breeding of fish. So by introducing a wolf, a miraculous, compounded and seemingly paradoxical chain of events occur, eventually leading to the revitalization of the river and fish habitat.
Russia’s coming escalation includes an increase in troop numbers of all branches, including the airforce. We’ve seen the reports how 400 jets and 300 helicopters are now allegedly stationed outside Ukraine, ready for action.
Similarly, by the force of scale—by increasing the air support to a given frontline, Russia will precipitate a chain reaction in the eco-system. There’ll be more ‘wild weasels’ for SEAD missions, AFU AD systems will be consequently far more pressured and less active, which in turn will compound the active participation of even MORE airpower, in the manner of frontline bombers and attack choppers—now able to more freely operate. This domino effect will cause an increase in the effectiveness of assault units advancing at the enemy, which will keep them from being “static” and stuck in stalemate-y, positional and attritional battles—which will therefore negate a lot of NATO ISR reliant on static targets whose coordinates they can feed to artillery systems. In short, it will avalanche into a more fluid battlefield which hampers and strains ISR systems, particularly satellite recon.
Similarly, the ‘economy of scale’ concept pertains to the increase of Russian AD systems in each sector. As discussed briefly in Part 2, a more ‘densely’ integrated and layered AD system can have compounding effects due to how all the various disparate parts mutually overlay each other like neurons making multiplicative connections to each other.
This will further compound Russia’s ability to intercept strikes at the ‘rear lines’, which is precisely what the biggest (and only) strength of NATO’s ISR capabilities has been. One must understand, due to Russia’s very lean use of force to now, it meant the drastic under-powering and under-utilization of AD systems. But with the coming troop increase, many more missile brigades will be brought in, and will have an additive effect, like standing waves or cymatics systems, where overlapping frequencies become much stronger together.
Many people sat goggly-eyed months ago, watching the perplexing display of the Antonovsky bridge being hammered by HIMARs, often without even the barest Russian effort to intercept the missiles. Most don’t realize that Russia’s small force usage was the culprit. Stretched so thin, even the missile brigades operated anemically, such that hardly a single Pantsir unit could be found to cover the bridge, at least up until the end, when more were moved in.
Also, there's the fact that while Russia has a lot of shorter ranged barrels than M-777, it also has a lot of longer ranged barrels. The US "long range" Himars rockets are very specialized and limited in numbers, meanwhile they can be utilized on immediate front but go to waste. 1 to 1 the Tornado is at least par or above par to Himars. Russia can continue waging the more successful counter-artillery war with benefit of significantly greater range for barrels, which nullifies potential US advantage of C4ISR.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 20:00 utc | 38
America has been marinating in the likes of modern Prince philosophy for sure:
Game of Thrones
Succession
Ozark
Breaking Bad
The Amerikans
the American mind has been cultivated through Poker; the Russian through Chess.
No two games could be more different, creating near polar opposite cultures, worldviews and policy practice:
the shortterm bling of Hollywood-style "Shock and Awe" and corporate cutthroat hostile takeovers
vs
a duller longview slow and steady acquisition via attrition.
Posted by: Irish | Feb 16 2023 20:01 utc | 39
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 20:00 utc | 38
addition:
Similarly, by the force of scale—by increasing the air support to a given frontline, Russia will precipitate a chain reaction in the eco-system. There’ll be more ‘wild weasels’ for SEAD missions, AFU AD systems will be consequently far more pressured and less active, which in turn will compound the active participation of even MORE airpower, in the manner of frontline bombers and attack choppers—now able to more freely operate. This domino effect will cause an increase in the effectiveness of assault units advancing at the enemy, which will keep them from being “static” and stuck in stalemate-y, positional and attritional battles—which will therefore negate a lot of NATO ISR reliant on static targets whose coordinates they can feed to artillery systems. In short, it will avalanche into a more fluid battlefield which hampers and strains ISR systems, particularly satellite recon.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 20:04 utc | 40
Posted by: Irish | Feb 16 2023 19:34 utc | 34
I wasn’t aware of anything to that effect, is that something you’ve read elsewhere, recently or in the past?
Posted by: rk | Feb 16 2023 19:48 utc | 35
Sad to say that anyone in RF military circles scheming reduce Wagner’s involvement in SMO is doing exactly what Russia’s enemies want, an object lesson in being careful what you wish for.
That Prigozhin is talking about the apparent withholding of essential supplies only days after announcing that recruitment of convicts has been suspended doesn't bode well.
Hopefully this is not the correct reading of events.
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 16 2023 20:06 utc | 41
New evidence emerges of US involvement in blowing up Nord Stream, 02.16.2023.
American journalist John Dugan presented new data on the undermining of the US Nord Stream.
MOSCOW, February 16 - RIA Novosti. NATO exercises Baltops-2022, which took place last summer near the Danish island of Bornholm, involved American divers with deep-sea equipment, according to an anonymous letter received by American journalist John Dugan.
He provided the text of the letter to RIA Novosti. According to Dugan, he has every reason to trust an anonymous source, as he presented evidence - photos from the exercises and documents. But he asked not to distribute them, for fear of revealing his identity. The letter was sent from a disposable email box on October 2nd. Dugan tried to contact the author, but was unsuccessful.
"I completely trust the letter. It contains details that only a person who is well acquainted with the Baltops-2022 exercises and deep-sea equipment could provide. Everything was correct," the RIA Novosti journalist said.
The author of the letter claims to have participated in the Baltops exercise last June. According to him, on June 15, a helicopter delivered a group of Americans in civilian clothes.
"My first thought: they looked like a group of terrorists," the letter says.
The author explains that their hairstyles, mustaches and beards, as well as the absence of name tokens, seemed strange to him.
The divers were greeted by a Vice Admiral of the US Navy's Sixth Fleet and a group of plainclothes men. The author of the letter did not hear their conversation because of the noise of the helicopter.
An eyewitness said that he noticed Americans wearing MK-29 rebreathers that use an oxygen-helium mixture for deep-sea diving. In addition, they had other highly professional and expensive equipment that regular naval units do not use. In addition, they brought small boxes.
The divers themselves said that they would participate in mine clearance exercises: they had to sail on a rubber boat to a certain area, find and defuse anti-ship mines. However, they did not have the equipment for this. And after a conversation with the vice admiral, the author of the letter claims, they did not go to the exercise area and were absent for quite a long time.
“They left the boat in their rebreathers and disappeared underwater for more than six hours. There is no autonomous equipment that will allow a diver to stay underwater for six hours. With the latest military systems, three or four hours maximum,” the letter says. According to the author, the US military returned without the boxes, then they were picked up by a helicopter.
At a briefing before the start of Baltops-2022, the commander of the Sixth Fleet, Vice Admiral Eugene Black, said that the exercise program included the development of underwater mining. But since the author of the letter could not be contacted, Dugan was unable to confirm the identity of the Vice Admiral referred to in the letter.
Last week, Pulitzer Prize-winning American journalist Seymour Hersh published an article about an investigation into the accident on Russian export gas pipelines laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. According to him, American divers planted explosives under Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 during Baltops-2022, and three months later the Norwegians set it off. Moreover, President Biden decided on sabotage after more than nine months of secret discussions with the national security team, the journalist claims. In his opinion, the reason was Biden's fears that Germany, which receives gas from Russia through Nord Stream, would not want to participate in military assistance to Ukraine.
Washington categorically denies these accusations.
The attacks on Russian export pipelines took place on September 26, when a gas leak was discovered in four places at once. Sweden, Denmark and Germany are conducting investigations, but they have not yet led to any concrete results. The Kremlin called the accident an act of international terrorism.
Posted by: Nord Stream | Feb 16 2023 20:14 utc | 42
" The Security Dilemma " was/ is utmost importance for Poland on account of such "nice" neighbors as Germs & Ruskis. What the F...k luck.
Thank US for breaking their "umbilical cord"-NS2. Germs must perish. That's only option to have peace.
Posted by: Jan | Feb 16 2023 20:19 utc | 44
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 16 2023 18:10 utc | 11
"You don't go to the bully and his gang and say "I won't give you my lunch money and you won't beat me up, because of an indivisible security whatever". Even trying that is silly."
bullies don't remain bullies for long...in HS they quit messng with me after I started working out. And the RF certainly has been working out hard the past 8yrs :-)
Posted by: nathan in WA US | Feb 16 2023 20:20 utc | 45
Posted by: Irish | Feb 16 2023 20:01 utc | 39
«the American mind has been cultivated through Poker; the Russian through Chess»
Thank you for this interesting alternative to the usual "westerners play chess, the chinese and japanese play 'go'" one.
Posted by: Blissex | Feb 16 2023 20:23 utc | 46
I love killing bullies - not because they bullied me, but because they think there will be no ACCOUNTABILITY.
Oh how wrong I know they are.
Bullies always die in the end - and those that trickery is the way to advance in the eyes of their god, well, they got another thing coming.
Time will tell.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 16 2023 20:25 utc | 47
bevin | Feb 16 2023 17:59 utc | 6
"...ditched Turgenev and Dostoevsky for Nathaniel Hawthorne and Fenimore Cooper..."
Hawthorne and Cooper deserve being read and taught. Dostojewski, Turgenjew, Lermontow,..., of course don't deserve to be cancelled.
Meanwhile, we (Germany) are much deeper in the moral morass. The renowned PEACE price (!!!) of the German Book Trader Association was in 2022 awarded to a -you guess it- Ukrainian author.
In his book “Sky over Kharkiv”…Ukrainian Poet Serhiy Zhadan [calls] the Russians as “horde”, “criminals”, “animals”, “garbage”… “barbarians, they came to destroy our history, our culture, our education.”… “Burning in hell, you swine..."
P.S. On this occasion: Bevin, you are among my top 10 favorite posters on MoA. Thanks for all your contributions.
Posted by: OttoE | Feb 16 2023 20:26 utc | 48
I could prove what I have typed above, but why should I?
If the proof is wrong, then we all will be dead, so it is rock-solid.
If the proof is correct, then as I already said: "time will tell".
How is that for a good riddle of logic and deduction?
That was a rhetorical question.
Bk
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 16 2023 20:29 utc | 49
Here's another great article on the media turnout, the poking of UAF lines all over the map and victory scenarios. The objective is to get UAF to bring ALL their reserves into Donbass so they don't later need to be chased down lands west of Dneper river. And the new advance axis, will be..?
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/tempered-outcomes-and-shaken-confidence
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 20:33 utc | 50
More likely Biden will do another twin towers job in New York and blame Russia !
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 16 2023 20:40 utc | 51
[email protected]
Thank you. I too enjoy Cooper and Hawthorne.
And the National Gallery in London has just discovered that Degas' Russian Dancer was Ukrainian, I expect her grandson joined the Waffen SS.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 16 2023 20:48 utc | 52
@41 anon2020 | Feb 16 2023 20:06 utc
I read it here at MOA, posted by a barfly, on another thread in the recent past.
I don't got any hard evidence myself.
hence the question rather than a statement.
hoping the barflies know and have a take on how this might be playing out.
Posted by: Irish | Feb 16 2023 20:49 utc | 53
Nord Stream | Feb 16 2023 20:14 utc | 42
This might be related to what you're talking about.
Can anyone do a proper translation?
Posted by: john | Feb 16 2023 20:49 utc | 54
Lavrov, buddy. Stop it! Phone calls with mass terrorists like Blinken or President Putin´s call to the senile Joe Biden are wrong moves. This Ukraine thing is our generation´s Stalingrad. The entire humanity´s fate is at stake. Either Russia, once again, saves the world from the satanic Empire or Dark Ages set lied down.
Posted by: nietzsche1510 | Feb 16 2023 20:50 utc | 55
Posted by: john | Feb 16 2023 20:49 utc | 54
Right or wrong, correct or not, this might be a bit of translation per your request:
The author explains that his hairstyles, mustaches and beards seemed strange to him, as well as the lack of personal tokens.
Divers were met by the Vice Admiral of the Sixth Fleet U.S. Navy and a group of people in plain clothes. The author of the letter did not hear their conversation because of the noise of the helicopter.
The witness said that he noticed mk-29 rebreathers in the Americans, which use an oxygen-helium mixture for deep-sea diving. In addition, they had other highly professional and expensive equipment that is not used by conventional naval units. They also brought small boxes.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 16 2023 20:53 utc | 56
"...USA vassalage offers several big advantages (for developed, resource-poor states) that the USA grants only to their vassals, like easier exports to their enormous internal market and their giant network of resource-rich countries they control..." [email protected]
History would suggest otherwise. Latin American countries, for example, have been US vassals and run by creole dictators backed by Death Squads and the US military for generations. As to China's clients, what do they have to complain of?
US vassals always end up as open cast mines for US corporations beyond the purview of municipal law.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 16 2023 20:57 utc | 58
Here, once again, correct or not is a full translation:
~~
MOSCOW, Feb 16 — RIA Novosti. The NATO exercise Baltops-2022, which took place last summer near the Danish island of Bornholm, involved American divers with deep-sea equipment, according to an anonymous letter received by American journalist John Dugan.
He provided the text of the letter to RIA Novosti. According to Dugan, he has every reason to trust the anonymous source, as he presented evidence - photos from the exercises and documents. But he asked not to distribute them, fearing the disclosure of his identity. The email was sent from a disposable email inbox on October 2. Dugan tried to contact the author, but was unsuccessful.
American flag on the building of the US Department of Defense - RIA Novosti, 1920, 16.02.2023
11:02
The United States is trying to wind down the investigation on Nord Streams, the expert believes
"I fully trust the letter. It contains details that only a person familiar with the Baltops 2022 exercises and deep-sea equipment could provide. Everything was correct," the journalist told RIA Novosti.
The author of the letter claims that in June last year he participated in the Baltops exercises. According to him, on June 15, a helicopter delivered a group of Americans in civilian clothes.
"My first thought: they looked like a group of terrorists," the letter says.
The author explains that his hairstyles, mustaches and beards seemed strange to him, as well as the lack of personal tokens.
Divers were met by the Vice Admiral of the Sixth Fleet U.S. Navy and a group of people in plain clothes. The author of the letter did not hear their conversation because of the noise of the helicopter.
The divers themselves said that they would participate in demining exercises: they had to swim out on a rubber boat to a certain area, find and neutralize anti-ship mines. However, they did not have the equipment for this. And after a conversation with the vice admiral, the author of the letter claims, they did not go to the area of the exercises and were absent for quite a long time.
"They left the boat in their rebreathers and disappeared underwater for more than six hours. There is no such autonomous equipment that will allow a diver to stay underwater for six hours. With the latest military systems, it's three or four hours maximum," the letter said. According to the author, the US military returned without boxes, then they were picked up by a helicopter.
At a briefing before the start of Baltops-2022, the commander of the Sixth Fleet, Vice Admiral Eugene Black, said that the exercise program includes the development of underwater mining. But since the author of the letter could not be contacted, Dugan could not confirm the identity of the vice admiral referred to in the letter.
Last week, American journalist, Winner of the Pulitzer Prize Seymour Hersh published an article on the investigation of the accident on Russian export gas pipelines laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. According to his version, American divers planted explosives under Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 during Baltops-2022, and three months later the Norwegians put it into action. And President Joe Biden decided to sabotage after more than nine months of secret discussions with the national security team, the journalist claims. In his opinion, the reason was Biden's fears due to the fact that Germany, which receives gas from Russia through Nord Streams, will not want to participate in military assistance to Ukraine.
In Washington, these accusations are categorically refuted.
Attacks Russian export pipelines occurred on September 26 - then a gas leak was found in four places at once. Sweden, Denmark and Germany are conducting investigations, but they have not yet led to any concrete results. The Kremlin called the accident an act of international terrorism.
Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Feb 16 2023 20:57 utc | 59
anon2020 | Feb 16 2023 20:06 utc | 41 "...scheming reduce Wagner’s involvement in SMO is doing exactly what Russia’s enemies want..."
There is another possibility. RF steps up the SMO. This can be done with regular troops / conscripts who are ready by now. It might even be a hint that a declaration of war is imminent. For psychological reasons, I would not farm out a "war that decides the fate of the whole nation" to a private company.
Some time ago I wrote that Wagner will gain so much experience over the times that they become an invaluable, versatile asset which can be used worldwide. Meanwhile, I read of requests by African countries (Mali, Burkina Faso) for Russian military assistance. As far as I know, training and policing are also requested by Latin Americans (Bolivia, Venezuela...). And the job in Syria ain't finished yet. If Türkiye plays along now... - THESE would be IMO the ideal deployments for the skilled Wagners. Rotation is more difficult there than from Ukraine. And one wants professionals for such jobs, not necessarily freshman-volunteers let alone conscripts.
Posted by: OttoE | Feb 16 2023 20:58 utc | 60
anti-spiegel is continuing to post his sequential weekday articles on the 2013/2014 coup and aftermath. 9 days worth posted now. Timeline of events and how they were covered both in Russia and Europe. Quite thorough.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 16 2023 21:00 utc | 61
Four days to take Melitopol.
Twelve weeks to take Mariupol.
Seven weeks to take Severodonetsk.
After twenty-eight weeks, Artyomovsk isn't taken. Russian forces are exhausted.
Posted by: La Ville Fantôme | Feb 16 2023 21:09 utc | 62
Begging for peace negotiations, Mark Milley talked read a script to FT to set the frame.
Ukraine conflict will likely have no military winner
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said in an interview with the Financial Times published on Thursday.
RT
The Ukraine conflict can only end through a negotiated peace deal because neither side is likely to achieve its goals on the battlefield,[.]
“It will be almost impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means,” Milley claimed without providing specific reasons for his stance. “It is unlikely that Russia is going to overrun Ukraine. It’s just not going to happen.” He added that it also would be “very, very difficult for Ukraine this year to kick the Russians out of every inch” of the territory that Moscow’s forces have already captured.[.]
Earlier this week, Milley told reporters in Brussels that Russia has already lost. [.] “They’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically, and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.”[.]
Retired US Army Colonel Douglas MacGregor, a former Pentagon adviser, said such claims have eroded the Biden administration’s credibility. “General Milley has made it very clear that he’s aligned with the left, he is part of this administration, he’s going to say whatever they want him to say.”<.BLOCKQUOTE>
Peace Negotiations !!? That rotted leaf already floated out to sea.
A pity the guys and gals at Pentagon are guarding the alligators in the swamp and clueless how to triage the bleeding when an alligator bites.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 16 2023 21:09 utc | 63
BREAKING: Poland to form its own legion of volunteers fighting for Ukraine
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1626198903409238016
Posted by: Andreas | Feb 16 2023 21:14 utc | 64
LoL now Old Joe Biden is on live TV talking about him shooting actual UFOs
Since when is US military gyidelines to shoot anything thay moves in the sky?
Its all BS and most americans will probably believe this next fake crisis.
Posted by: Comandante | Feb 16 2023 21:16 utc | 65
After twenty-eight weeks, Artyomovsk isn't taken. Russian forces are exhausted.
Posted by: La Ville Fantôme | Feb 16 2023 21:09 utc | 62
Are you subbing today?
Have you bothered to examine a topographical map and density of the Artyomovsk area? Google can be helpful with a Satellite map.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 16 2023 21:19 utc | 66
Posted by: Zebra | Feb 16 2023 18:14 utc | 13
Interesting article
There is also the tactic of rapid strategic relocation, that Weeb Union highlighted on his programme, when he looked at a Polish officers prediction of the forthcoming offensive. I also suspect, that NATO are relying partly on algorithmic triggers, to help manage the stream of info generated by 4-5G ISR systems and wonder if the Russians are, or have, worked out some of it’s routines. It’s all very well having battle management systems, but what will the effect be if commanders suddenly realise they are generating a false picture of the developing situation?
Don’t also be surprised if the initial hours of the invasion are conducted in strict EMCON conditions, allowing the aggressive blanket jamming of some axes of advance.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 16 2023 21:27 utc | 67
bevin | Feb 16 2023 17:59 utc | 6
_____
You describe a deeply entrenched investment in evil, essentially long-premeditated murder, with malice aforethought. Despicable.
I often found the bloodlust dramatized in accounts of past revolutions perplexing --- peasants with pitchforks, cheering the hangings and the slicing of guillotines. Sadly, now, not so much; images of Neocons swinging from lampposts seem much less abhorrent. It's not a welcome change of consciousness.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Feb 16 2023 21:28 utc | 68
"Four days to take Melitopol.
Twelve weeks to take Mariupol.
Seven weeks to take Severodonetsk.
After twenty-eight weeks, Artyomovsk isn't taken. Russian forces are exhausted.
Posted by: La Ville Fantôme | Feb 16 2023 21:09 utc | 62"
Week 52 and West still on "Russia is going to run out of tanks and ammos anytime now. The ruble will be rubble anytime now...." LoL
Posted by: Comandante | Feb 16 2023 21:30 utc | 69
Background information on the Russian "Penicillin", a promising automated sound-thermal complex (AZTK) of artillery reconnaissance:
https://en.topwar.ru/179311-penicillin-idet-v-vojska.html
Note, there is a tweet by Mark Sleboda on how it is used in the artillery war.
Posted by: Andreas | Feb 16 2023 21:36 utc | 70
Nearly a year ago a family member said to me...
Russia won't win, we've got the
'Euro Fighter'
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 16 2023 21:36 utc | 71
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 16 2023 21:09 utc | 63
Why is Nato and EU in such a rush to declare some ending to this? War is a long-haul business, they of all people should know that.
It's all about because they need to complete the narrative of the "failed Russian assault to take Kiev" - "heroic ukrainian recapture of Kupyansk" and "the pushing out Russians from Kherson" to the grande finale - "premier Zelensky, defender of the (un)free world ultraliberal oligarch... democracy, forces Putin to sign surrender document in the Kremlin". It's a pre-scripted narrative, they need the ending story part to it. As is this recent "massive attack about to begin".
War isn't conducted on the terms of this narrative.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 21:36 utc | 72
# 63 Miley The lies of a warrior, past his prime. Relaxing on a recliner, sipping scotch “neat”.
Posted by: Dingo | Feb 16 2023 21:36 utc | 73
Posted by: Weimar | Feb 16 2023 19:33 utc | 33
Anybody who follows Machiavelli to the heart he doesn't have, can be remorselessly executed by anybody who still has one left.
Nay, not executed - put down. Sociopaths are not people.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Feb 16 2023 21:37 utc | 74
Col. Douglas Macgregor: Ukraine Is Out Of Ammunition, Russian Large-Scale Offensive [M1 Abrams Tank]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxACdl60AZA
It will be a very interesting scientific experiment to see how an army will run without ammunition. The newly developed Nato doctrine - less ammunition wins wars.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 21:43 utc | 75
I`ve been a lurker for a few months now. I didn`t believe I would have anything to add to this discussion as I would not and do not have a lot of standing in the Ukraine conversation. In my limited research I`m am convinced that though Russia morally is right and has the military might to win, I believe that the USA (Nato) are still going to achieve their objectives whatever they are. Think of this conflict as Gold vs Silver. Silver has the might but Gold has the mind (spirit). I will expand if anyone is interested....
Posted by: Woodenhue | Feb 16 2023 21:52 utc | 76
#. 76 that’s a measured argument. How the conflict unfolds & is resolved.,nobody knows. But the death that’s occurred in less than a year is an atrocity.
Posted by: Dingo | Feb 16 2023 22:10 utc | 77
Why is Nato and EU in such a rush to declare some ending to this?
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 21:36 utc | 72
Because it is a lost cause to supply UKR.
They do not have the capacity to continue supplying UKR with war materiel or the manpower.
Listening just now to your link at post # 75
Judge Napolitano with Col. Doug Macgregor: RF is preparing for a 30-month war with the capacity for the long haul including production of war materiel.
February 21, 2023: Get your coffee press or your favourite nectar ready and stay tuned for Putin's speech.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 16 2023 22:10 utc | 78
Looks like Russia is massing in the south ready to go to Odessa....if they do NATO will come east out of Romania.....we are getting to very dangerous place....expect a false flag to precipitate the intervention
Posted by: Joe | Feb 16 2023 22:23 utc | 79
Likklemore | Feb 16 2023 22:10 utc | 78
Judge Napolitano with Col. Doug Macgregor: RF is preparing for a 30-month war...
...with NATO and the US".
Sorry, that important part was missing.
Posted by: Sektion2B | Feb 16 2023 22:48 utc | 80
Russia and Bolivia ditching dollar in trade.
I believw thet are the 1st South American country to do this.
LoL
Posted by: Comandante | Feb 16 2023 22:50 utc | 81
- or whatever you'd like to consume on a daily UKR-war info basis ..
You 'really' find here: on German Radio DLF.de or on ntv.de, that's the right channels for Germans !
All best so far Mr. Piano-Cock-Player, they (CIA) let you play your game until it's failed the back-offensive strikes in Bachmut city.
RF won't make any "jokes" with the US/UK mercs. Beside, some videos today (RT) showing Nazi-URs soldiers have killing the Wagner's men online by cutting his head.
That's ISIS like.
Wait, the ISL-"forces" engaged by Cock-Player/CIA will come more and more present in the "AFU" Military, soonner than expected.
That's work of CIA. Wait on that ISIL foreign guys, they'll coming round the edge ..
- So let's Ramstein asap. be a target of a very big Cluster-Bomb (800 kg via Iskander or else, but not yet nuclear ammo in the 1st stage), so let Stoltzen-berg go ahead, to protect Norway.
That'sit. Scholz go home into bunker in Berlin! Boeckchen ist schon weg, before due to CIA infos.
Posted by: spare_truth | Feb 16 2023 22:57 utc | 82
Kamala Harris was at the Munich Conference a year ago. The one where Zelensky threatened to get nukes.
Posted by: Lysias | Feb 16 2023 23:05 utc | 83
When Turgenev, Dostoyevsky, Hawthorne, and Cooper were writing, Russia and the US were friendly powers. Russia, unlike Britain and France, supported the Union in the American Civil War.
Posted by: Lysias | Feb 16 2023 23:09 utc | 84
I just finished rewatching On the Beach. I am now rewatching Dr. Strangelove.
Posted by: Lysias | Feb 16 2023 23:12 utc | 85
"UNITED NATIONS -- The European Union on Wednesday circulated the resolution to be voted on by the U.N. General Assembly on the eve of next week’s first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling for a cessation of hostilities and a peace that ensures Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.”
--There should be regular broadcasting of the Nuland-Kagan conversation with Pyatt when this rabid ziocon divulged her plans by saying "F-ck EU." By preparing, financing, and running the regime change in Kiev in 2014, the US violated the "sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity" of Ukraine. One of the astonishing facts of the regime change in Ukraine was the active collaboration of Nuland-Kagan (from the Straussian Kagans' clan) with Andrij Parubyj, the founder of the Ukrainian Nazi Party; Parubyj served as a commandant for the Nuland-Kagan putsch. It is impossible to deny the Ziocon s' involvement in the Nazification of Ukraine and in the initiation of a civil war against the federalists in eastern Ukraine (the genocide of the Russian population there). Compare the Ziocon-dominated State Department's sensitivity to the December 6th event with the obvious gag order on the facts of the Ziocon-ran regime change in Kiev in 2014. Americans en masse are content with Fascism on the march in the EU & US.
Posted by: Cerena | Feb 16 2023 23:33 utc | 87
b.,
Hats off to you for running this "what happened before" series as a lead up to the coming "anniversary".
Serious credibility.
Any diplomacy at this point was all too little too late.
Once the decision to blow up Nord Stream was made - the next requirement was creating an active pretext.
The pretext that was decided upon was the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
After the decision to blow up Nord Stream was made - the next step was to foment this conflict and make sure it kicked off on schedule - clearly early 2022 was the agreed start point.
Once again the West has been dictating the pace of this conflict and leading Russia along.
The decision to blow up Nord Stream already being made was the crucial decision missing from the analysis done by experienced analysts such as “B” (and many others) when assessing the likelihood of conflict.
If that decision had been known by various analysts - everyone with an ounce of sense would have been able to predict that a conflict was inevitable between Russia & Ukraine.
Posted by: Julian | Feb 16 2023 23:35 utc | 89
@83,84,85,86 by Lysias :
Hi that's really interesting wht you claimed here, you may be a good guy for your above 4 comment contents, elsewhere in another forum..
But, having understood you so far, it's ok, but pls. not hereto discuss USA Cicil War etc. ..
There are some other guys here on MoA that could better describe some facts acc.to the US civil war "some years ago". @First, read about ..
But at first, read about some new infos acc.to war in UKR ..
Posted by: spare_truth | Feb 16 2023 23:37 utc | 90
RE: Nato and the US in Europe, others have mostly covered it, but I wanted to throw in a slightly different perspective. As noted, Nato is a racket. All rackets are primarily driven by greed and/or lust for power, which of course also enables and protects greed. My contention is that most of the 'higher ups' or Nato inner circle would honestly say that Nato is first and foremost about driving money into "security" which really means funding the military industrial surveillance infotainment complex. Because there is such consolidation in the latter category, they naturally "sell" Nato in whatever way they think is most effective, i.e., creating threatening "enemies" and constantly instilling fear of those enemies among the tax paying populations of affected (and aspiring) countries. Both real and imaginary enemies are created, for example ISIS/Al Nusra/Al Qaeda being mostly real and the specter of Russian or Chinese "empire" being mostly imaginary. The real enemies pose real threats depending on where one finds oneself (where "one" can also be a corporation) but usually not in Europe, at least not directly. By keeping certain areas of the world unstable through the actions of said real enemies, Nato portrays itself as protection in real time and by provoking peer or near peer powers into regional conflicts on their periphery, Nato sells itself as necessary for future protection. The end goal, however, is always to subjugate member countries to the MIC and financialization pushed by Wall Street and The City. A money siphon, IOW.
A secondary 'benefit' is that of control. Wherever Nato extends its tentacles, it allows the mafia running the racket (aka western private capital/finance embodied by the US, UK and in some cases in Africa, France) to control trade, and especially trade in energy. This is why the pipelines (and by no means just the Nordstream systems) have been such contentious issues for so long in Europe/Eurasia and Middle East. Similar is of course happening on China's periphery.
The thing is, building on (and if I may, correcting) what Chris and Blissex have said, those who self-regime-change by selling out to a protection racket aren't really being protected; quite the contrary. There aren't sufficient real current or future threats that aren't themselves results of planned Nato actions. If populations of the affected countries weren't constantly propagandized, there would be no desire to join Nato as supranational bodies like the EU would suffice for most things. This is borne out in polling among the people in places like Norway, Denmark, even Ukraine. Until very recently, the majority of voters saw no reason to join Nato and had a negative image of it. But using the consolidated mass media that is now completely controlled by the narrative managers of Washington D.C. and captives in Brussels, they have slowly chipped away at the popular will. Protests are ignored, no matter the size. That is what I mean when I use the term "information totalitarianism" - as we've all witnessed via COVID and Ukraine, having been built on what happened in media during the runup to the 2nd Iraq invasion and the Maidan coup d'état (with social media being added in).
Nato is a racket that maintains itself by inducing mass psychosis on an industrial scale. Otherwise, it would be incredibly easy for most people to see how absolutely useless, if not actually dangerous it is.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 16 2023 23:49 utc | 91
Posted by: Julian | Feb 16 2023 23:35 utc | 89
.. If that decision had been known by various analysts - everyone with an ounce of sense would have been able to predict that a conflict was inevitable between Russia & Ukraine. ..
Ok - but what do you'd like to address "that decision" makers if those are still un-Known by fact?
"Various Analysts" is a very various interpretation of the facts of so-called 'nonames'
What's not an unknown guy is:
Mr. Hersh and his latest public infos to the current US/UKR/UK/GER/etc war.
Posted by: spare_truth | Feb 16 2023 23:57 utc | 92
anon2020 | Feb 16 2023 20:06 utc | 41
I will suggest that some in high places are getting nervous about Prigozhin's political ambitions, and want to clip his wings.
In World War II, the chronic enmity between the Japanese army and navy undermined Japanese efforts against their enemies.
Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 16 2023 23:58 utc | 93
I want to add my voice to the chorus of the bar denizens who believe b is doing great work here every day. I think I will have to copy all of these Ukraine daily posts into a document for reference in the future. Thank you!
Posted by: Quid Me Vexare | Feb 17 2023 0:01 utc | 94
Sorry, that important part was missing.
Posted by: Sektion2B | Feb 16 2023 22:48 utc | 80
Thanks Sektion2B, my apologies.. I was distracted during previewing, attending to another task..
= = = = = =
Looks like Russia is massing in the south ready to go to Odessa....if they do NATO will come east out of Romania.....we are getting to very dangerous place....expect a false flag to precipitate the intervention
Posted by: Joe | Feb 16 2023 22:23 utc | 79
Joe is that a typo about Odessa or your personal assessing? Where or where did you find that gold nugget?
There are some leftovers to be held accountable and the search is on for old piano wire.
Odessa will not be left on the table for a NATO naval base.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 17 2023 0:07 utc | 95
US vassalage *had* advantages. During the Cold War the smart play was to straddle the divide; it could be deadly (see Afghanistan) but also beneficial. Choosing the US side then did have more tangible advantages in terms of access to debt and financing. After the Cold War there was only one choice, and the few who tried something else got flattened. Only N. Korea survived because it has nukes but more because it could make the US pay too heavy a cost on the peninsula.
The difference between then and now is that there is a choice again. It’s the real earth shaking geopolitical movement going on. More importantly, the choice now isn’t between vassal status to a superpower but a club. Almost like the Cold War non-aligned movement (the actual “third world”. But this time the non-aligned movement is led by Russia and China and the US is a falling empire.
Posted by: Lex | Feb 17 2023 0:08 utc | 96
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 16 2023 20:06 utc | 41
.. That Prigozhin is talking about the apparent withholding of essential supplies only days after announcing that recruitment of convicts has been suspended doesn't bode well.
Hopefully this is not the correct reading of events.
Yes, it is not "the correct reading of events", dear troll.
Wagner PMC is a fighting community that you cannot imagine en-detail - ok?
Want to know more about the WPLC just going ahead, dear non-military sitting home (where?) ..
Pls. may keep attention next weeks, what WPLC will have established beside suggestion of AFU.
AFU-NAZI guys that have cut-off heads of DPR-guys in front of published videos, will die within 5 days.
Be sure!
Posted by: spare_truth | Feb 17 2023 0:17 utc | 97
#. 76
I agree 100% it is an atrocity. I disagree that nobody knows....God does. I don`t know if you think outside the box, but if you do, whatever your belief check out the book of Daniel from the Bible and focus on chapters 2 and 7. 2 is then... 7 is now....they are different yet the same...Babylon (UK,USA)...Persian Medes (Iran,Russia).
Posted by: Woodenhue | Feb 17 2023 0:25 utc | 98
#98 I respect all beliefs. But this is not the venue to expound on this type of thought.
Posted by: Dingo | Feb 17 2023 0:38 utc | 99
@ Mar man 4
Full scale invasion of Russia this year.
I forget the name of the African Tour guide on the Limpopo River? Who knew of a certain rogue hippo that hated humans. He took a small boat with a few would be explorers out on rhe River and saw the said hippo advancing fast underwater. Three times the hippo grabbed him in his mouth, once by the head, and once by each arm.
Recovering in hospital and feeling pretty Sorry for himself his doctor friend said to him: " You are the sum total of all the decisions you have made in your life. "
We know the US neocons are deranged, same as the hippo. We know they cope with their sordid imprisoned lives by hating socialists. We know they will activate their hate and attack Russia.
But will attacking Russia remove the humanity they hate from human nature?
I don't think so. Hippos don't have hospitals and schools and mosques. The chewed human survivor has faculties and facilities the hippo's rage will never reach. Neocon /Zio- Nazi rage is like that. To be pitied not feared. Deeply and intrinsically inadequate.
Posted by: Giyane | Feb 17 2023 0:48 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Thank you for this detailed day by day history proceeding Russia enter Ukraine. There is so much going on that one looses track of important events. I am saving these pieces in a file
Posted by: Don Midwest | Feb 16 2023 17:08 utc | 1