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The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Tuesday, February 15, 2022
After the 2014 coup in Kiev the dully elected President Yanukovich had fled the country. His supporters in parliament were afraid and would no show up for further assemblies. The incoming U.S. selected government immediately set out to suppress the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine. The first move of the rump parliament, now dominated by right-wing people from west Ukraine, was to prohibit the Russian language for official business.
The ethnic Russian population in the east and southeast was opposed to the coup and rebelled against it. The new government tried to oppress it by military means. But a lot of soldiers defected to the rebels and soon those won the upper hand. The Ukrainian government troops were decisively defeated, twice. Each time the French, German, Russian and Ukrainian governments set down to come to agreements on how to proceed:
The first, known as the Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with mediation by the leaders of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format. After extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, the agreement was signed on 5 September 2014 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of their status, by the then-leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). This agreement followed multiple previous attempts to stop the fighting in the region and aimed to implement an immediate ceasefire.
The agreement failed to stop fighting, and was thus followed with a revised and updated agreement, Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015. This agreement consisted of a package of measures, including a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to certain areas of Donbas and restoring control of the state border to the Ukrainian government. While fighting subsided following the agreement's signing, it never ended completely, and the agreement's provisions were never fully implemented.
The Minsk II agreement, a "Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements", was endorsed by the UN Security Council Resolution 2205. It is available here. The package includes clearly numbered tasks. An immediate ceasefire is task 1. The 'Launch of a dialogue' about legislation measures the Ukrainian parliament would have to take to recognize a special status for Donbas is step 4. Step 9 is the reinstatement of full control of the state border by the government.
These clearly defined steps later proved to be the reason why the agreement was never fully implemented. The government of Ukraine insisted that step 9 should be taken before step 4. The governments of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics insisted on the original sequencing as giving up any control over the boarder with Russia, and the supplies coming through it, would have taken away their ability to defend themselves before the other steps, specifically the recognition of the special status of the Donbas republics, had been taken.
Over the years several summits were held to push for a fulfillment of the Minsk agreements. But the government of Ukraine, with 'western' support, continued to block the process.
On Tuesday, February 15 2022, following talks with the German chancellor Olaf Scholz, President Vladimir Putin ordered some troops who had been stationed near the border with Ukraine to move back to their barracks.
France 24 listed other headlines of the day:
- Blinken speaks to FRANCE 24: The Ukrainian crisis has 'reinforced transatlantic solidarity'
- NATO chief says 'cautious optimism' over Ukraine crisis
- Ukraine crisis: Blinken says risk of Russian invasion high
- Should I stay or should I go? Ukrainians remain resolute despite a war of nerves
- Scholz welcomes Russian withdrawal of some troops from near Ukraine
- Putin, Scholz begin talks in Moscow over Ukraine security
- Russia says some troops return to base, Ukraine reacts cautiously
- Markets calmer after Zelensky's invasion joke spooks investors
France 24, and many other 'western' media, missed something important that was happening in Russia:
Russia's parliament will vote on Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, the speaker of the Duma lower house said.
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The idea of asking Putin to recognise the breakaway territories was first floated by lawmakers on Jan. 19 but has taken weeks to get onto parliament's agenda, with the Kremlin declining to comment on whether it likes the idea.
In late January 2022 the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) had analyzed the idea:
On January 19, 11 members of the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, registered a draft law to recognize the independence of two separatist statelets in eastern Ukraine that have been warring with Kyiv since 2014 with substantial but undeclared support from Moscow. The document, which was put forward by members of the Communist Party, comes amid rising tensions along Ukraine’s border and in occupied Crimea, as Russia continues its buildup of military forces while demanding that the collective West agree to proposals to reshape the European security order to its liking.
This is not the first time that Russian parliamentarians have sought to provide official recognition to the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (abbreviated as the DPR and LPR, respectively). In 2014, deputies from the party launched an abortive campaign to collect signatures in support of recognizing the territories’ independence, which would have been delivered to President Putin for consideration. Meanwhile, the Just Russia party called for recognizing the statelets’ independence that same year and has included it in subsequent party platforms.
This was not the idea of the major government supporting United Russia party, but of the parliamentarian opposition. Putin had rejected the 2014 attempt towards independence as he did want to keep the Donbas republics within Ukraine.
CSIS writes that an eventual recognition of the independence of Donbas was seen by its supporters as a step that might help to avoid a war:
The approach suggested by the Communists offers certain advantages to Russia. First, with negotiations on Russia’s security demands stalled, extending official recognition to the LPR and DPR could give Putin a relatively simple way to shift the status quo in Russia’s favor without (necessarily) involving the 127,000-strong Russian forces currently encircling Ukraine.
The chairman of the State Duma’s committee dealing with relations in neighboring states has already indicated that recognizing the statelets’ independence could be part of Russia’s “plan B” in case talks fail. If Russia would want to allow more time for negotiations to play out, while also escalating pressure to compel the West to accept at least some of its core positions, then recognition of the statelets could be considered in the Kremlin as an appropriate next step. Should Ukraine and the West make substantial concessions at that stage, then Putin would be able to proclaim a victory in the current standoff and draw down his forces rather than risk a spiraling escalation with unpredictable outcomes.
During its February 15 session the Duma adopted the resolution:
Russia's lower house of parliament voted on Tuesday to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and the European Union told Moscow not to follow through.
The move by the State Duma, if approved, could further inflame a wider standoff over a Russian military build-up near Ukraine that has fuelled Western fears that Moscow could attack. Russia denies any invasion plans and has accused the West of hysteria.
Recognition of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics could kill the Minsk peace process in eastern Ukraine, where a conflict in the region known as Donbass between government forces and Moscow-backed separatists has cost 15,000 lives.
"Kyiv is not observing the Minsk agreements. Our citizens and compatriots who live in Donbass need our help and support," Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma speaker, wrote on social media.
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At a news conference in Moscow, Putin declined to be drawn out on how he plans to respond. He said Russians were sympathetic to the residents of the Donbass region, but he wanted the regions' problems to be resolved through the Minsk accords.
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Four-way peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany were held last week but ended without a breakthrough.
After the talks, Ukraine said it would not yield to pressure from Moscow to negotiate directly with the separatists, while Russia accused Kyiv of putting forward absurd proposals.
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of February 15 that the number of ceasefire violations continued to be below average. The number of explosions, i.e. artillery impacts, was higher than average but mostly limited to one area where they hit on both sides of the ceasefire line:
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 24 ceasefire violations, including five explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 17 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 129 ceasefire violations, including 71 explosions.
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The majority of ceasefire violations occurred in areas close to the disengagement area near Zolote (government-controlled, 60km west of Luhansk) (see below). In the previous reporting period, the Mission recorded 157 ceasefire violations in the region, some of which also occurred near the disengagement area near Zolote.
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During the reporting period, the SMM camera in Zolote recorded four projectiles in flight, while Mission patrols heard 61 undetermined explosions and 37 bursts of heavy-machine-gun fire, assessed as outside the disengagement area near Zolote but within 5km of its periphery.
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Melaleuca @103–
My sentiments exactly. The following is my educated opinion:
Putin and team imbibed too much of their tonic about Slavic brotherhood and thus had no conception that Zelensky and team would kill so many of their people at the Outlaw US Empire’s behest. A negotiated settlement was still thought possible until the promising breakthrough in April was squashed by Biden and team, which forced a complete reassessment of the SMO strategy and the subsequent partial mobilization. What Putin and his team failed to understand 10 months ago was the insane zealotry–a mania–of Biden and team to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia and drive Putin and team from power. But despite the insanity, the Outlaw US Empire refused to provide Ukraine with the tools to accomplish the Biden team’s goal. Instead, obsolete crap was provided at a price that IMO will never be repaid. As long as Zelensky’s in power, the war will continue. Meanwhile, Russia’s negotiating position has hardened and driving NATO back to its 1997 form is now the primary goal, for Russia knows the Outlaw US Empire will never agree to any form of indivisible security unless it’s forced–that’s been a bipartisan policy continuity since 1989.
The economic destruction of Western Europe was also a clear policy goal, which very belatedly was recognized by some European governments. The most Russophobic have come close to demilitarizing themselves and lack the energy and other resources to rearm themselves. The surprise for the Outlaw US Empire is those nations won’t be buying many arms from it as their economic destruction will prevent that from occurring. Thus, NATO is becoming demilitarized and is even more of a paper tiger now than a year ago. Western Europe was also lucky that the Winter was mild, but it will be very hard for it to refill its gas reserves, which is another point the Outlaw US Empire miscalculated–a broke EU/NATO isn’t going to buy much LNG at the gouging prices offered. As for European industry moving to North America, that won’t happen either as there are closer non-Russian places to move to that have lower energy and labor costs. Yet another miscalculation.
And then there’s the Big Picture where the RoW is going to abandon the Dollarzone, which will cause extreme distress to an already unstable currency and system. (Do read the latest Hudson/Desai, particularly the last half.) My own less technical article on the topic is here. Dedollarization as a Movement was already happening a year ago and has since gathered pace. The only way a national currency can be the global currency is if that nation is the entire world, and that’s not going to happen ever. And that applies to the Yuan as much as the dollar or Sterling before.
Currently, it’s possible to see the changes in demeanor that’s occurred with Lavrov, Putin and other team members because they increasingly see the core of Nazism within the Outlaw US Empire’s Neoliberalism–it’s now being termed Neocolonial but along Fascist lines, as was most Colonialism. Today Lavrov addressed the Duma which I’ve yet to read and is my next task. I’ll provide this long excerpt that encompasses b’s recap and adds other material, but Lavrov is only warming up:
I am grateful for another opportunity to address the deputies of the State Duma within the framework of the traditional “government hours”.
The interaction between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation is truly comradely. Our regular meetings in various formats allow us not only to give legislators information about the work of the foreign service, but also to learn about your plans, hear advice and tips. This is especially important for us at the current historical stage, when efforts to create favorable external conditions for solving our internal socio-economic problems and improving the well-being of Russian citizens are met with fierce resistance from those who have imagined themselves to be the arbiters of the destinies of peoples. They are trying to prevent us, throwing us back hopes, or even to disrupt the development of the country under the slogans of “decolonization” and “preparation for the disintegration of Russia.” At the same time, the Anglo-Saxons and the rest of the “collective West” that has unquestioningly submitted to them seek at all costs to impose their diktat in world affairs in order to continue to control the external conditions of the development of all mankind for the sake of their own domination of the whole world, resorting to illegal methods of threats, blackmail and direct theft, to punish those who pursue their own independent nationally oriented foreign policy.
Therefore, our updated Foreign Policy Concept will focus on the need to end the West’s monopoly on the formation of the framework of international life, which should henceforth be determined not in its selfish interests, but on a fair universal balance of interests, as required by the UN Charter, which enshrines the principle of sovereign equality of all states.
Grossly trampling on this fundamental principle of civilized interstate communication, the United States and its allies are obsessed with a maniacal desire to revive the neocolonial unipolar world order, to interfere with the objective process of formation and elevation of new world centers. All this in the hope of continuing, as President of Russia Vladimir Putin noted in his speech in the Kremlin on September 30, 2022, “to collect real tribute from mankind … to extract the rent of the hegemon.” An integral part of this course is the long-term deterrence of Russia, including through the expansion of NATO in the direction of our borders, as well as the transformation of fraternal Ukraine into “anti-Russia”, into a Russophobic military bridgehead. In recent years, this line of Washington and its European satellites has reached the “point of no return.”
For a long time we had no illusions about the true intentions of westerners. We remembered how they had not fulfilled the specific political obligations given to the Soviet leadership not to expand the North Atlantic Alliance. How Germany, France and Poland, having renounced their signatures under the agreement between President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition, actually sanctioned a bloody coup d’état in Kiev in February 2014 under openly Nazi, racist slogans.
All these years, Western curators directly pushed the criminal Kiev regime to a military solution to the “problem” of Donbass, turning a blind eye to the inevitable large-scale ethnic cleansing and physical extermination of Russians and Russian-speakers. What are the recent cynical confessions of the former leaders of Germany and France, Angela Merkel and F. Hollande, that they needed the Minsk Package of Measures, approved by the UN Security Council, only to buy time and allow Kiev to increase its military potential. In the same vein, P.A. Poroshenko spoke, and after him V.A. Zelensky. The well-known public confessions of these “characters” mean a “confession” regarding the failure of the Minsk agreements, which were proclaimed by all Western leaders as the uncontested basis for the settlement in the Donbass. Simply put, everyone lied to us, just as they lie now, hiding the truth about the terrorist attacks on Nord Streams.
The other day, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg joined the “chorus” of confessions. He said in Brussels that the war began in 2014, and NATO has been preparing it since the coup d’état and the Nazis came to power in Kiev with promises to destroy everything Russian in Ukraine and expel Russians from Crimea. In other words, in order to solve the “Russian question”, which the alliance supported, no matter how much the descendants of the authors of previous attempts tried to refute it.
To the last, we have done everything possible to reduce tensions and find an equal and mutually respectful agreement. To this end, in November 2021, President of Russia Vladimir Putin put forward an initiative to formalize counter legally binding security guarantees in the western direction. They were known to have been arrogantly rejected by Washington and the North Atlantic bloc. They didn’t even want to discuss our legitimate concerns.
All this left us no other choice. A year ago, on the orders of V.A. Zelensky’s regime, the armed forces of Ukraine, led by national battalions, switched to the forceful suppression of Donbass, increasing the bombing of settlements by several orders of magnitude. In response to the official appeal of the DPR and LPR, we recognized their independence and came to their aid in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, launching a special military operation.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 15 2023 22:01 utc | 115
FWIW, and it’d a few days old now, here’s the most complete translation to English of Evgeny Prigozhin’s interview (from which the quote about “If we need to reach the Dnieper, about 3 years. If just Donbass, then about 1,5-2 more years of work. If we need to reach the English Channel, I have a plan for that, too.” appeared) that I’ve found:
Evgeny Prigozhin is, as most of you know, the founder and head of Wagner PMC. The interview was done by Semyon Pegov, veteran Russian war correspondent with many wars under his belt, and founder of the WarGonzo media project. Image
Pegov’s first question: what’s up in Artyomovsk/Bakhmut?
Prigozhin: Bakhmut has become a center of gravity for the Ukrainian army. Our task in the Bakhmut meat grinder is to get as many Ukrainian troops in there as possible to free up our forces elsewhere.
“WG” will be WarGonzo (Pegov), “P” will be Prigozhin.
WG: Are we close to a full blockade of Bakhmut?
P: It’s too early to say that we’re “close”, there are many routes in & out of Bakhmut, the Ukrainians are well-prepared and know all the routes, our troops are working on an envelopment, frontal assaults on large cities don’t work
WG: I noticed that your media resources, as opposed to the RU MOD, are very slow about reporting their successes. Are there military reasons for this or is it personal preference?
P: As my soldiers say: happiness likes silence. First we’ll take Bakhmut, then tell you about it.
P: We don’t show our men’s faces so the Ukrainian army doesn’t see them. If they see them, they’ll all survive, because death is also afraid of our soldiers.
WG: You said that Wagner PMC has stopped recruiting convicts. What’s up with that?
P: The former convicts are fighting & they’re fighting well. There were some problems to solve but we have a main principle: we’re open and honest with them, they’re open and honest with us.
P: If you signed the contract, you go do your work. The casualty rate among the convicts is the same as with all of our units. Sometimes the convicts fight braver than they should and value their lives less than a soldier should.
P: The convicts don’t only serve in the infantry, but also in other branches & support roles, like all of our other employees. We had a specific procedure for recruiting convicts; it has run its course for organizational reasons. They may be used in other ways.
WG: Some people claim that convicts are used as cannon fodder to be used in the most difficult areas. Is there some truth to this or do all Wagner soldiers fight in the same conditions?
P: What is “cannon fodder”? Brainless biomass whose task it is to get killed by artillery. If an infantryman dies in combat, he’s not cannon fodder – he’s an infantryman who did his job on the front. There is not a single man among the convicts who could be called “cannon fodder”
WG: How are the convict recruits prepared for combat?
P: First they get a month of training, 20 hours a day, with 4 hours of sleep. Including live fire exercises, from dawn til dusk. 5-6 hours a day are theoretical, the rest is physical training.
WG: In any case, it’s probably easier to breathe in a trench than in prison.
P: I’ve been to prison and I can confirm that, indeed, it is better to be in a trench than in prison.
WG: There is a whole mythology about Wagner PMC. It appears to have it’s own ideology or codex. What’s the ideology of Wagner PMC?
P: The ideology of Wagner is to be a collective with near-perfect command & control, where every commander listens to his fighters on the ground.
P: Our ideology is that there every fighter can rise up, that you are a man with lots of adrenaline who is needed by his collective and his country, and therefore, when the motherland called, the lads flew right over wearing tropical uniforms & joined the fight within two days.
WG: I know many people from your ranks, some of them are close friends. I have noticed a very specific attitude towards death among them. Phrases like “being a warrior is to live forever” that became popular in the army came from the PMC. Is there a cult of contempt for death?
P: I would call it a cynical attitude towards death.
(Soldier in the background: “Death is not the end, it’s the beginning of something else”)
P: We’ll all go to hell, but in hell we’ll be the best.
(Soldier in the background: “Absolutely!”
WG: You’ve quoted the movie [“The best in hell”]. I saw your name in the credits. Was it based on several operations, like e.g. Mariupol…
P: No, it’s all a depiction of Popasnaya.
WG: About the hammers. There is a lot of talk about them. I’ll be honest, I’m ambivalent about this, I agree that traitors must be found and punished…
P: I have no idea what you’re talking about. I just know that the hammer is a pretty tool and symbol.
WG: You’re a person who often enough openly criticizes our military leadership. How bad is the situation with our troops really?
P: I’m not criticizing anyone. The most important thing for the army is for the higher-ups to sometimes *see* the lower ranks. The soldiers would be surprised and very happy if the generals visited the trenches more often.
P: When I visit my lads, they know that I’m not some estranged figure, but that I’m with them. All commanders of Wagner PMC are former shock troopers who earned the right to command through their work.
WG: There are rumors that among the soldiers of Wagner PMC there is a certain amount of people with far-right views, who enjoy Third Reich aesthetics, etc. Are there far right radicals here?
P: Every man who joins Wagner PMC must have enough courage, adrenaline and balls to go into the fire and kill the enemy. If you need soft guys with pretty nails who go to church every week, that’s not about Wagner PMC.
P: Wagner values your qualities as a soldier, your devotion to your comrades, your balls and brains. If you like the Third Reich, if you have gang tattoos, we don’t give a shit about that. We only care about how you treat your brothers-in-arms & how you carry yourself in battle.
WG: But what’s your personal opinion?
P: My opinion is that everyone masturbates the way he likes to. The important thing is that he fulfills his duty and goes forward.
WG: For how long are we here?
P: Let’s start with the basics. There haven’t been wars like this since 1945. When I compare Soledar and Stalingrad, I haven’t been to Stalingrad personally, but it was *hard* to raise your head. The amount of shells being fired is even higher.
P: The important thing for us is that the enemy has more casualties than we do. What have we done so far? We grabbed a piece of the Black Sea coast, we secured a land corridor to Crimea. Now we have to focus on Donbass. We have to secure the DPR and LPR.
P: How did the Special Military Operation start? The Ukrainians started misbehaving, did an illegal revolution, which may be their right, but they attacked Russians, & started a genocide. We managed to stop the war in 2014 & for 8 years… I don’t know why we waited for 8 years.
P: Now back to your question, how long will it take. If we need to reach the Dnieper, about 3 years. If just Donbass, then about 1,5-2 more years of work. If we need to reach the English Channel, I have a plan for that, too.
P: But if we decide to go for the English Channel, we need to become like we were in 1941-1945, and, of course, we need to give the Ukrainians their fair share, maybe France, Italy, Bulgaria. Because we will suffer more than enough here with them.
WG: Many people are talking about your political ambitions. How would you describe these?
P: I don’t need any political parties. I have no political ambitions. All my guys say the same: when this story here in Ukraine ends, send us back to Africa, it’s so nice there.
WG: Who are the guys in the background here?
P: The military leadership of Wagner. We can’t show them, like I said, otherwise death will run away. That wouldn’t be fair.
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Interview’s over. That’s about it.
Found at: https://threadreaderapp.com/user/RWApodcast
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 15 2023 22:41 utc | 127
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