|
The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Sunday, February 13, 2022
In early 2022 Ukraine had finished the preparations for an overwhelming attack on the renegade People Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LNR).
Half of the Ukrainian army, some 120,000 men recruited and trained during the last 7 years, were stationed near the ceasefire line and ready to go. On the opposing side only some 40,000 men were under arms. They would have little chance to withstand an onslaught.
Russia could not let a Ukrainian attack happen. If Ukraine could regain the renegade provinces it would have been able to join NATO. Russian public opinion was decisively on the side of the Russian speaking DNR and LPR. It would surely demand an intervention. Since the 2014 coup in Kiev some four million Ukrainians had already moved to Russia. There are lots of family ties between the two countries. In sight of this Russia had put some of its own forces on alert and had moved weapons and munition to assembling points near the Ukrainian border.
The U.S. had for months warned of an upcoming Russian attack on Ukraine. It could do that because it knew the Ukraine would attempt to regain the republics by force. It knew that Russia would have to respond. On January 12 2022 CIA director Bill Burns had secretly met Zelensky in Kiev. Burns often carries messages from President Joe Biden.
On Sunday February 13 2022, after a phone call with U.S. president Joe Biden, the Ukrainian president Zelensky gave the final order for the planned Ukrainian attack.
That the decision had been made was immediately leaked in London as well as in Kiev.
In its summary of the day the Guardian listed a lot of activities that were consistent with the imminent start of a conflict. Diplomats and foreign military were moving out of Ukraine. Weapons flew in.
Tipped off by its government the British insurance conglomerate Lloyd stopped reinsurance services for anything Ukraine:
Anatoliy Ivantsiv, head of Ukrainian insurance firm Expo, told Interfax that British reinsurance giant Lloyds announced it would temporarily cease all conflict risk insurance over Ukrainian airspace from Feb. 14.
When the news of the attack order leaked in Kiev, its 'elite' oligarchs and some parliament members were ready to leave. On February 13 and the following days they fled the country:
Ukraine’s richest men are fleeing the country with their families as the number of private jet charters jump after the possibility of war spiked in recent days, according to flight traffic information posted on social media on February 13.
…
Switzerland, Austria and the south of France were the most popular destinations for the charter flights.
Ukrainska Pravda stated that such an exodus on charter flights hasn’t been witnessed in six years of observations. The publication reported that planes belonging the country’s top oligarchs, including Rinat Akhmetov, Viktor Pinchuk, and Boris Kolesnikov, as having left the country. A private plane for 50 people was also ordered by Igor Abramovich, another top business figure.
…
bne IntelliNews sources confirm that two residential English tutors, both British citizens, working for an MP and a businessman respectively, will leave for the south of France this week. Neither confirmed that the flights had anything to do with increased fears over an invasion, as both families travel regularly with their staff for work holidays. Even last month, when the war drums began to beat more loudly for the first time, tutors and teachers working at private schools in Kyiv reported a large number of children absent, away on holidays.
Some members of the Ukrainian parliament were also bailing out. on February 14 Kiev Independent reported:
More than two dozen lawmakers out of a total 424 MPs, who are due to attend parliamentary sessions starting this week, are not currently in Ukraine. Almost half, or 12 deputies, are from the pro-Russian party Opposition Platform-for Life, five deputies are from the presidential Servant of the People party. Most of the lawmakers, or 20 people, left the country in February.
As part of the Minsk agreement the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) had a Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in east-Ukraine. Over the weekend of February 12 and 13 the front had been relatively quiet:
In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 11 and 13 February, the Mission recorded 261 ceasefire violations, including 50 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 114 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 11 and 13 February, the SMM recorded 114 ceasefire violations, including 24 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 258 ceasefire violations in the region.
The observed numbers of explosion were less than the average of the last 7 and 30 day periods. Explosions occurred on both sides of the ceasefire line.
bigger
Looking at the state of the Collective West today, at this time, I continue to be absolutely stupefied by the wreckless, arrogant, vitriolic Presidents and Cabinet members of the countries involved (I leave Croatia, Hungary and Austria out of this). In my lifetime I have never such a bunch of complete and utter idiots running the collective West. In particular, a Senile USA President, a former, absolutely barking mad but dangerous British Prime Minister who is still heavily involved, a Prime Minister in Poland who has seriously messianic tendencies and intent on setting off WWIII and a drug addled, utterly corrupt, evil, brutal Nazi Dictator in Ukraine who has been lionised by the collective West the consequence of which has been the creation of a Monster, a depraved, greedy, immoral, power crazed Dictator who is guilty of supporting extremely serious war crimes perpetrated by his Army. Added to this of course, A President of the EC who is clearly also a power mad Nazi and a corrupt one at that and Charles Michel a nasty piece of work.
I think back to the Transatlantic Trade Treaty between the EU and the USA quite a few years ago. The EU negotiators at the time were proper, serious minded politicians who at least had the interests of their respective Countries and EU citizens. The EU Negotiators walked away from the negotiations clearly stating that the USA was not interested in a mutually beneficial Trade Agreement rather, a one-sided one that gave the USA everything and the EU nothing. I remember, I think it was the French or Italian negotiator said what the USA effectively was demanding was the transfer of millions of EU jobs to the USA which was unacceptable to them.
Well, well, well. This bunch of EU Leaders have sold out their countries and their citizens lock stock and barrel to the USA without batting an eyelid. No honour, no integrity, no preservation of their countries interests nothing, just a massive sell-out.
Not only that, I never thought that in my lifetime I would witness what I am seeing today. The Leaders of the collective West not only actively supporting a brutal Nazi Regime and it’s Dictator (who is giving Hitler a very good run for his money) but also, supporting extremely serious Ukrainian War Crimes, turning a blind eye to the atrocities they commit and actively supporting the nullification of Russia and Russian Culture. There can be no doubt that this is Nazi Ideology. They are also, not even slowly, transferring their own powers into Totalitarian ones removing key civil liberties like the right to protest, freedom of speech and the implementation of industrial levels of propaganda and censorship on any dissenting voices. My Grandparents fought in WWII to preserve our freedom, our civil liberties and to ensure Fascism and Nazis would never again take a hold on the world. Well, here we are, what my grandparents fought for has been eradicated. Fascism and Nazis once again, take over the collective West only this time, they are supporting it, actively so.
I salute you President Orban and the President of Croatia. Courage is not the absence of fear but rather, the judgement that something else is more important. You are putting your country and its citizens first and not supporting the current extreme Fascism that presently prevails.
God Bless you President Putin for your courage, forbearance and the absolute seriousness with which you approach these issues. If history is recorded correctly, you will be known as the Greatest Statesman of this Century and Lavrov the world’s Gold Standard Diplomat and Foreign Secretary. The Ukrainian people need to be freed from this brutal Nazi Dictatorship.
The Mad, Deluded, Destructive Clown who is currently President of Ukraine will be remembered in history as the President who absolutely, totally and unequivocally destroyed his country from which it will never recover.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | Feb 13 2023 23:32 utc | 150
I am not convinced.
I remember Russian forces were building up for months prior to the start of the invasion. The Ukrainian build-up could easily have been a response to that. Lawmakers leaving the country were probably just leaving because of the impending invasion.
There’s just nothing in B.’s narrative that counts as evidence in favor of Ukrainian planned invasion that doesn’t also count in favor of Russian planned invasion.
And I don’t remember Putin talking about Ukraine invading. He reached out to Biden and NATO demanding broad withdrawal of U.S./NATO forces from the former Soviet Union. He did not reach out specifically about preventing a Ukrainian attack on East Ukraine.
Posted by: GoFast | Feb 13 2023 23:05 utc | 144
Let’s put it this way — Russia was preparing for months, Ukraine was preparing for invading the Donbass (and Crimea) since 2014-15.
Which we know because it was publicly admitted by Poroshenko, Zelensky, Merkel, Macron, and others.
Ukraine didn’t put 150,000 men in Donbass on February 1st 2022. There is a reason why in a year the front has barely moved a couple kilometers away from Donetsk — they had been fortifying, digging in, and setting up positions there for 8 years.
In fact the original post does not go far enough — within Russia there has been quite a bit of discussion how the Ukrainians planned to go even beyond the Donbass, into Rostov. Sound absurd initially, but when you think about it it is really not that far fetched, both as an objective and as execution.
Imagine Russia had sat on its hands and not mobilized any forces to stop the Ukronazis from carrying out ethnic cleansing in the Donbass and invading Crimea. What happens then?
First, 3-4 million people will be desperately fleeing into Russia from Donbass as refugees, which will be hugely destabilizing.
Second, another couple million fleeing across the Kerch bridge from Crimea into Krasnodar. Even more destabilizng.
Third, without any mobilization there would be no force to stop the Ukronazis from going into Rostov. It would be 150,000 vs whatever 10-20,000 men Russia may have in that region in peacetime. It would have to seriously scramble to put together a resistance. Of course, eventually it would be expected to do that, and crush the Ukies, and of course there is the nuclear deterrent too.
But then comes the last consideration. Imagine the situation — millions of refugees streaming into Russia, Rostov has fallen, etc. That would be hugely, enormously destabilizing. Putin may well have been overthrown in that kind of chaos as there would be a lot of blame going his way. Rightfully so — he would have been to blame for not stopping it, by not launching a preemptive strike.
And thus the West’s main goal — regime change — may have been achieved. Even if later the Ukies pull out or are driven out of Rostov.
Finally, there is absolutely nothing in the way this war has been fought so far that suggests it was a deliberately sought one, or that once it was started, it was fought with serious conquest in mind. To this day the main problem is the Kremlin not behaving as fitting the seriousness of the situation, which basically mandates another WWII-level effort, not an SMO with limited forces and idiotically, suicidally restrictive rules of engagement.
If the Kremlin had been serious about permanently solving the Ukrainian issue, there would have been a multiyear-long military build up, preparing a couple million men for the task, the war would have started with overwhelming force, there would have been no grain deals, no Azov exchanges, no “goodwill gestures”, farcical negotiations, or any of that nonsense.
We’ve seen none of that seriousness so far, exactly the opposite, everything points to this being a desperate measure, forced onto Putin by the circumstances, and the effort still being hampered by the Russian elite’s moronic clinging to the dream of going back to the good old times of spending their time between London, Paris, the ultra-expensive ski resorts in the Alps, and on megayachts in the Mediterranean and the Caribbean.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 13 2023 23:37 utc | 152
I am not convinced.
There’s just nothing in B.’s narrative that counts as evidence in favor of Ukrainian planned invasion that doesn’t also count in favor of Russian planned invasion.
And I don’t remember Putin talking about Ukraine invading. He reached out to Biden and NATO demanding broad withdrawal of U.S./NATO forces from the former Soviet Union. He did not reach out specifically about preventing a Ukrainian attack on East Ukraine.
Posted by: GoFast | Feb 13 2023 23:05 utc | 144
———————————————
So GoFast, maybe “you aren’t convinced” because you only read US/UK/EU propaganda. So, now read this, or shut the “F” up.
————————-
By Mike WHITNEY
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/02/09/setting-record-straight-stuff-you-should-know-about-ukraine/
On February 16, 2022, a full week before Putin sent combat troops into Ukraine, the Ukrainian Army began the heavy bombardment of the area (in east Ukraine) occupied by mainly ethnic Russians. Officials from the Observer Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were located in the vicinity at the time and kept a record of the shelling as it took place. What the OSCE discovered was that the bombardment dramatically intensified as the week went on until it reached a peak on February 19, when a total of 2,026 artillery strikes were recorded. Keep in mind, the Ukrainian Army was, in fact, shelling civilian areas along the Line of Contact that were occupied by other Ukrainians.
We want to emphasize that the officials from the OSCE were operating in their professional capacity gathering first-hand evidence of shelling in the area. What their data shows is that Ukrainian Forces were bombing and killing their own people. This has all been documented and has not been challenged.
So, the question we must all ask ourselves is this: Is the bombardment and slaughter of one’s own people an ‘act of war’?
Map from Moon of Alabama (see Feb. 21, 2022 cease fire violations map)
We think it is. And if we are right, then we must logically assume that the war began before the Russian invasion (which was launched a full week later) We must also assume that Russia’s alleged “unprovoked aggression” was not unprovoked at all but was the appropriate humanitarian response to the deliberate killing of civilians. In order to argue that the Russian invasion was ‘not provoked’, we would have to say that firing over 4,000 artillery shells into towns and neighborhoods where women and children live, is not a provocation? Who will defend that point of view?
No one, because it’s absurd. The killing of civilians in the Donbas was a clear provocation, a provocation that was aimed at goading Russia into a war. And –as we said earlier – the OSCE had monitors on the ground who provided full documentation of the shelling as it took place, which is as close to ironclad, eyewitness testimony as you’re going to get.
This, of course, is a major break with the “official narrative” which identifies Russia as the perpetrator of hostilities. But, as we’ve shown, that simply isn’t the case. The official narrative is wrong. Even so, it might not surprise you to know that most of the mainstream media completely omitted any coverage of the OSCE’s fact-finding activities in east Ukraine. The one exception to was Reuters that published a deliberately opaque account published on February 18 titled “Russia voices alarm over sharp increase of Donbass shelling”. Here’s an excerpt:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced alarm on Friday over a sharp increase in shelling in eastern Ukraine and accused the OSCE special monitoring mission of glossing over what he said were Ukrainian violations of the peace process….
Washington and its allies have raised fears that the upsurge in violence in the Donbass could form part of a Russian pretext to invade Ukraine. Tensions are already high over a Russian military buildup to the north, east and south of Ukraine.
“We are very concerned by the reports of recent days – yesterday and the day before there was a sharp increase in shelling using weapons that are prohibited under the Minsk agreements,” Lavrov said, referring to peace accords aimed at ending the conflict. “So far we are seeing the special monitoring mission is doing its best to smooth over all questions that point to the blame of Ukraine’s armed forces,” he told a news conference.
Ukraine’s military on Friday denied violating the Minsk peace process and accused Moscow of waging an information war to say that Kyiv was shelling civilians, allegations it said were lies and designed to provoke it.” (Russia voices alarm over sharp increase of Donbass shelling, Reuters)
Notice the clever way that Reuters frames its coverage so that the claims of the Ukrainian military are given as much credibility as the claims of the Russian Foreign Minister. What Reuters fails to point out is that the OSCE’s report verifies Lavrov’s version of events while disproving the claims of the Ukrainians. It is the job of a journalist to make the distinction between fact and fiction but, once again, we see how agenda-driven news is not meant to inform but to mislead. Quote: Larry C. Johnson, Son of a New Revolution.
The point we are trying to make is simple: The war in Ukraine was not launched by a tyrannical Russian leader (Putin) bent on rebuilding the Soviet Empire. That narrative is a fraud that was cobbled together by neocon spin-meisters trying to build public support for a war with Russia. The facts I am presenting here can be identified on a map of where the actual explosions took place and were then recorded by officials whose job was to fulfill that very task. Can you see the difference between the two? In one case, the storyline rests on speculation, conjecture and psychobabble; while in the other, the storyline is linked to actual events that took place on the ground and were catalogued by trained professionals in the field. In which version of events do you have more confidence?
Bottom line: Russia did not start the war in Ukraine. That is a fake narrative. The responsibility lies with the Ukrainian Army and their leaders in Kiev.
—————————–
In a very biased article for the INSIDER, Feb 15, 2022, 10:48. Putin is quoted talking about genocide in the Donbass, of course his claims were dismissed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday claimed, without evidence, that “genocide” is occurring in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, where Kremlin-backed rebels have been fighting a war with Ukrainian forces since 2014. “In our view what is now happening in Donbas is genocide,” Putin said during a joint press conference in Moscow with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, per BBC News. Similarly, Putin in December said the conflict in the Donbas “looks like genocide.”
Putin was talking about the situation in the Donbass just days before the SMO.
—————————-
Finally, this from
Donetsk-Sana 2/3/2022, 1:42:57 AM
The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic announced that Ukraine had deployed about 120,000 of its military forces on the border with the Donbass region.
“Military and intelligence data confirm that Kiev has deployed about 120,000 of its military forces on the border with Donbass, in addition to a Western military presence represented by officers from Western countries who are coordinating with Kiev’s forces,” the Russian Sputnik news agency quoted Natalia Nikonorova, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry in Donetsk.
Nikonorova stressed that these Western military supplies that arrived in Ukraine encourage the authorities in Kiev to launch a large-scale attack on Donbass.
Western countries, especially the United States, have intensified in recent weeks the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine at a time when the authorities in Kiev and the US administration claim that Russia is amassing large forces on Ukraine’s borders, while Russia constantly asserts that there is no intention to interfere in Ukraine and that all reports that speak of this Its purpose is to escalate tension in the region and inflame the anti-Russian rhetoric, in addition to preparing to impose new economic sanctions and justify the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization towards the east, which Moscow strongly opposes and considers a threat to its national security.
Follow Sana’s news on Telegram https://t.me/SyrianArabNewsAgency
Posted by: Ed | Feb 14 2023 2:11 utc | 194
|
