Recognizing The War Is Lost The 'West' Seeks An Exit
U.S. President Joe Biden is in Kiev today to rescue his lunatic project of destroying Russia by proxy war. But there is no good way to do that.
A review of 'western' media shows that the inevitable outcome of the war is now recognized. The only still open alternatives are to risk a large nuclear war or to retreat from 'western' dreams of its permanent hegemony.
Few 'western' officials will admit that the war is lost, that Russia has won in Ukraine. But it has. It had won the war when it successfully trapped the Ukrainian army into a war of attrition.
A the Russian commentator Sacha Rogers writes (in Russian, machine translation):
This war has already been won (moreover, what is most offensive for various "unrecognized geniuses", without their participation and contrary to their foolish ideas of how it should be won). It was won at the moment when, instead of a highly maneuverable war, our General Staff imposed a positional “standing” with an attrition war on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.Strictly by the textbook: Attrition warfare is a military strategy consisting of belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material.
Ukraine has already lost two armies and it is begging for a third one. But the 'West' is unable to deliver it:
Less than a quarter of the modern battle tanks the West has promised to Ukraine are likely to arrive in time to counter an anticipated Russian spring offensive.Kyiv is expecting its supporters to send up to 320 western tanks in total but estimates suggest barely 50 will reach the front lines by the start of April, prompting concerns they will not be enough to have a substantial impact on the fighting.
The recognition that the Ukraine has lost the war is creating a panic in those quarters that are committed to 'western' uni-polarity.
The Economist warns of the loss of the 'West’s authority':
Ukraine’s future still hangs in the balance—and is likely to remain uncertain for years to come. Mr Putin may accept a ceasefire at some point out of expedience, but his overhaul of Russian society is geared entirely towards aggression abroad and repression at home. Any conceivable end to the shooting will therefore require strong Western security guarantees and large and lasting transfers of arms and financial aid—almost as if a second, much bigger Israel had appeared on Europe’s eastern borders. Some European leaders argue that requires full NATO membership. If reconstruction of Ukraine were to fail, and its economy to falter, then Ukrainian democracy would start to fail, too.
...
Only a third of the world’s population lives in countries that have both condemned Russia for its invasion and also imposed sanctions on it, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister organisation. Most of them are close allies of America. The rest tend to see the war as a contest between autocrats and hypocrites.
...
Even countries that think that Mr Putin’s invasion was reprehensible might still conclude that Western power is on the wane if it fails to succour Ukraine. But given arms, money and political support Ukraine may yet prevail. Through courage and by the power of their example, the Ukrainian people have earned that chance. There could be no better investment in Western security.
An editorial in the Washington Post is blowing the same horn:
To allow an outcome that rewards the Kremlin in any way would be a moral travesty. It would also deal a potentially lethal blow to the principle on which Western stability and civilized international conduct rests: that sovereign states cannot be invaded, subjugated and subjected to mass slaughter with impunity.
(Ever heard of Yugoslavia? Or Iraq?)
To thwart Russia and safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty, the United States and its European allies have little choice but to intensify their military, economic and diplomatic support for Kyiv. That means equipping Ukrainian forces with more decisive weapons and in greater numbers, imposing more aggressive sanctions on Moscow and galvanizing a more muscular international coalition to isolate and ostracize Russia.
That agenda is urgent; the status quo of relatively static battle lines is untenable.
In the New York Times one David French warns that America Can’t Go ‘Wobbly’ on Ukraine:
Yet the outcome of the war is simply too important — to America as well as Ukraine — to allow our support to falter. On the war’s anniversary it’s time for a concerted effort to persuade Americans of a single idea: We should support Ukraine as much as it takes, as long as it takes, until the Russian military suffers a decisive, unmistakable defeat.
On the one side of the current discussion you have those, see above, who think of the outcome of the war in absolute terms. The U.S. must win in the proxy war it has caused, no matter what. But there are alternatives. The will require to acknowledge that the short period of U.S. global hegemony has ended. The time for multi-polarity has come.
Count Secretary of State Anthony Blinken as one who is unwilling to admit that As soon as China 'threatened' to negotiate peace in Ukraine did he accuse it -without evidence- of aiding Russia in the war:
In his interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” which was taped on Saturday night for broadcast on Sunday, Mr. Blinken said the United States would soon be offering new information to demonstrate Beijing was “strongly considering providing lethal assistance to Russia.”
...
Mr. Wang has been using the conference in Munich as a platform to tell European leaders and diplomats that China is ready to bolster ties with them and to try to play a role in ending the war in Ukraine. In his public remarks on Saturday, he said that China would soon offer a peace proposal to stop the fighting. But Mr. Blinken warned in a separate event against the allure of cease-fires that Russia might exploit to regroup for new offensives.
China has not yet supported Russia in the war. But if Russia would seem to lose the war China would have to intervene. It would otherwise become the very next country that the U.S. would try to obliterate.
The U.S. fell into an escalation trap when it has allowed the Ukraine leadership to lead the country towards disaster:
By virtue of its decision, Ukraine, along with its closest partners in Poland and the Baltic nations, became the classic “trojan ally” — smaller countries whose desire for regional clout against the extant middle power (Russia) is predicated on their ability to persuade an external great power and its global military network (here, the US and, by extension, Nato) to step in militarily on their behalf. As we noted in our study, “this comes at great risk to the regional balancer and at great cost to the external great power”. For ultimately, the arrangement depends on “the threat of the use of force and military intervention” by that external great power, without which the regional balancer would fail.
That is exactly where we are. Ukraine's pathological hater Vladimir Zelenski is leading the U.S. into an ever deeper commitment to win by ultimately destroying Russia.
But any direct confrontation with Russia would lead to nuclear war. The U.S. can not risk that. It is therefore pushing Ukraine to speed up its commitment to suicide:
As the fighting continues to rage, both sides of the Atlantic fear that Russia is finding its footing, Ukraine may be overmatched in certain parts of the east and south and the West’s pipeline of weapons will slow to a trickle. Biden leaves Monday for Poland to meet with President Andrzej Duda and other key NATO leaders. U.S. officials believe that Ukraine’s defense is about to hit a critical phase with Russia launching its much-telegraphed offensive. The Biden administration has urgently pressed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration to consolidate its gains — and perhaps launch its own counterstrike.The White House has also told Zelenskyy’s team, per multiple officials, to prepare for the offensive now, as weapons and aid from Washington and Europe flow freely, for fear that backing from Ukraine’s European neighbors could be finite.
...
But the reality Biden will confront in Poland is that Zelenskyy has made clear that he will not negotiate until all of Ukraine’s territory is restored — all but ensuring that the war will stretch into the distant horizon.“We’re in this for the long-haul and it’s going to grind on for quite some time,” said Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. If Western support starts to fade away, “there’s no denying that it will have an effect on both the outcome and the length of the war.”
You don't say ...
The 'West' is going wobbly because it can not provide enough for long enough to give the Ukraine even a small chance to win the war:
“We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever,” said one senior administration official, referring to Ukraine’s leaders. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, added that it was the administration’s “very strong view” that it will be hard to keep getting the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress.“'As long as it takes’ pertains to the amount of conflict,” the official added. “It doesn’t pertain to the amount of assistance.”
...
The critical nature of the next few months has already been conveyed to Kyiv in blunt terms by top Biden officials — including deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.CIA Director William J. Burns traveled to the country one week ahead of those officials, where he briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming months and emphasized the urgency of the moment.
Faster please, is what the U.S. is telling Ukraine. Hurry up because we will soon have to end our support.
But the Ukrainian army does not have the material and manpower ready to launch some kind of counter offense that would have a chance to be win the war. It doesn't even have enough to regain some significant territory.
The third army it would need would have to be much stronger than the two armies it has already lost. And its not coming.
So what is the 'West' going to do? Deliver more wonder weapons?
President Biden is set to travel to Poland this week to discuss Western efforts to help Ukraine resist Russia’s invasion, as pressure builds on his administration to provide Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets. Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said in a weekend interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” he believes that eventually “there will be fighter jets from the West” — as was the case with other advanced weapons whose provision was “unimaginable” when the war began.
I have news for Mr. Morawiecki. The first F-16 flew in 1974. To think that 50 year old airplanes will have a chance against Russia's first class air defenses and fifth generation fighter planes is lunacy.
Fighter planes are flown by using trained reflexes, not by conscious decisions. Pilots get trained for that. Once those reflexes are adopted to a specific plane, and its philosophy, it takes years to retrain them for a different one. Ukrainian pilots in F-16s anytime soon is wishful thinking.
But maybe Poland, in its futile bid to be Ukraine's savior, can convince its own pilots to suicide themselves in an environment that is saturated with Su-57s fighter jets and S-400 air defenses. Or it can send its own army to the front. The U.S. would surely welcome another country's commitment to suicide for the greater good of its dollar hegemony.
But I don't think that it will come to that.
The U.S. needs an exit strategy from the war. To recognize that the only alternative is total war and nuclear annihilation, as the Economist, WaPo and NYT opinions imply, is the first step to developing one.
Posted by b on February 20, 2023 at 12:45 UTC | Permalink
next page »I wish this were true. I really wish Russia was winning, not because I'm a Russophile, but because a decisive Russian victory would make the warmongers in the West stop and think before attempting their next military adventure overseas. As it stands Ukraine (with massive NATO support) is grinding Russia down. The rest of the world, with the notable exception of Iran, just pays lip service to Russia and offers no help whatsoever. Don't these idiots realize once NATO is done with Russia, they can do whatever they want to the rest of the planet? I'm especially disappointed in China and India. This whole sad affair just makes it clear; the US (the muscle behind NATO) really is the world's sole remaining superpower and no other country dares oppose it directly.
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 12:57 utc | 2
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-wolfowitz-doctrine-shaped-putin%E2%80%99s-outlook-206225
Mark this reference above - in case anyone says, "it's all Russia's fault". It comes from a conservative, pro-USA, pro-imperialism site (a primary figure in the site called for Russia's destruction a couple weeks ago). That it got published at all there is surprising.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2023 13:09 utc | 3
The US outright robbery of Syrian wheat and oil is prelude to what the US would do to Russia. Everyone in the world knows this. If there is a more rapacious nation than the US, name it.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Feb 20 2023 13:09 utc | 4
"You shouldn't underestimate Joe's ability to F**k things up."
... or something like that.
Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 20 2023 13:10 utc | 5
Let’s see. Russia is the daddy of this war and Russia will decide when it ends. The US may be looking for an “off-ramp” but it may only find that there isn’t one.
Russia will take the four referendum provinces now and immediately move to close off the coast. This war is only starting.
Posted by: VtObserver | Feb 20 2023 13:10 utc | 6
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 12:57 utc |
"I wish this were true. I really wish Russia was winning ..."
It's your lucky day!
Posted by: forceOfHabit | Feb 20 2023 13:17 utc | 7
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 12:57 utc | 2
“As it stands Ukraine (with massive NATO support) is grinding Russia down.”
——-
In the same way that peppercorns technically do wear down a peppergrinder, but you’ll runout of peppercorns long before the grinder is kaput.
Russia went into this to de-militarise Ukraine, and will come out of this having de-militarised NATO as well. De-Nazifying the West will prove to be a bit more challenging, because most in the West don’t recognise their own Nazis behind the rainbow flags and drag outfits.
Posted by: Cato the Uncensored | Feb 20 2023 13:17 utc | 8
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 12:57 utc | 2
LOL. Cope harder.
Posted by: Jax | Feb 20 2023 13:18 utc | 9
Biden's visit to Kiev showed he is recognizing the War is Lost and wants an Exit and Zelensky knows his time is up.
Russia has won in Ukraine, But it is far from finished for Russia with 300,000 soldiers and hundreds of aviation aircraft waiting
The Chinese Foreign Minister and Head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission also Arrived in Moscow today
Whilst another 150,000 are ready to go - Belarus Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said.
It is also rumored Russia and Belarus will announce a formal Security Union
And finally Zelensky will order a withdrawal of the AFU from Bakhmut at the end of this week.
- Supporting Team Z from Australia
Posted by: Sam | Feb 20 2023 13:23 utc | 10
Thanks for another interesting update! You wrote:
"But any direct confrontation with Russia would lead to nuclear war."
I'd like to suggest the book "Death Object" by "Akio Nakatani" for an explanation as to why the threat of nuclear attacks remain entirely academic.
Posted by: keen-bee | Feb 20 2023 13:24 utc | 11
Let us praise the inevitable triumph of the Russian Army, comparable only to the Red Army's triumph over Finland in 1940, yet another case of defending itself against western hergemonic aggression.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Feb 20 2023 13:25 utc | 12
@ bored.
Ukraine wearing Russia down.?
I don't know where you have that from. Best guesses are 25000 rus to maybe 200000 ukr. Who is wearing whom down?
Utter nonsense. What's more, most of war mongering EU states are worn down too! And shown as paper tigers.
THAT's what is going on.
Z
Posted by: G wiltek | Feb 20 2023 13:26 utc | 13
I see that the NATO-loving ratfuckers are out in force today.
Well, maybe it's time, if not long overdue, for China and Russia to state publicly the cold hard truth: mankind will never be free as long as the USA exists as a major power; that country is too big and full of resources to be kept whole, and will have to be split, sooner or later. This, not taking out half of Ukraine our pushing back NATO beyond the Oder, should be the end-game of the current romp.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Feb 20 2023 13:29 utc | 14
Joe has certainly taken "f-ing things up" to a whole other level.
Over 200k dead Ukrainians, millions of refugees dispersed around the globe, Ukraine essentially turning into Somalia without the nice weather.
Posted by: Chris | Feb 20 2023 13:32 utc | 15
The elephant in the room was that Nato ability to wage a proxy war was based on the readily available and easily supplyable Soviet tanks and aircraft. They started really running out sometime in the Fall of 2022, the whole project hit a huge dip. The remaining vehicles, artillery systems and MLRs will last here, there, for a while, steadily decreasing available fire support everywhere on the front. The general staff can determine where fire support will go, but they have less to play with every day, with no replacements coming from anywhere. Nato (mostly US M-777) artillery systems ran out.
With US unwilling to negotiate and only sporadic fire support for UAF, while standing ground to the last, they will suffer much more losses than so far. This will be the theme for this year. Meanwhile Nato sends more and more mercenaries to the mix as a band-aid measure.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 20 2023 13:39 utc | 16
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 12:57 utc | 2
Grinding Russia down?
Where? Down to what?
In which direction exactly are the ukronazis advancing towards Moscow?
Delusional.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Feb 20 2023 13:42 utc | 17
Is Russia grinding Ukraine down, or is the Ukraine grinding Russia down? The total corruption of western 'journalism' means that we simply can't know. Certainly the Ukrainians, with massive assistance from the west, have fought the mighty Russian army to a standstill for one year. Perhaps the Ukrainians are finally played out? Perhaps the Russian leadership is really that incompetent, like in WWI? I guess we will find out, sooner or later.
As with other comments, I'd like to see Russia 'win.' Not because I love Putin, or because I hate the Ukrainian people, but just to see the western ruling class take a loss. But my wanting something does not make it real.
Oh, and Biden has nothing to do with this. That corrupt senile lickspittle sock puppet just does as he is told, the real people behind all of this are vicious and amoral and very, very smart. That doesn't mean that they haven't made a big mistake here, of course, just don't judge the western ruling class by their chosen idiot figurehead.
Posted by: TG | Feb 20 2023 13:45 utc | 18
i can imagine what the mahatma gandhi would say to this:
'Western stability and civilized international conduct'
Posted by: paddy | Feb 20 2023 13:46 utc | 19
We will know when the West really thinks the war is lost when they start braying and belly-aching for a cease-fire. You, know it's "for the children!"
To paraphrase Frank Herbert - they have only one move left, and everybody knows it - treachery!
Posted by: Chris | Feb 20 2023 13:55 utc | 20
"Empires always dream of “permanent hegemony”, the result of gaining power, retaining it or attempting to regain it..."
Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Feb 20 2023 12:56 utc | 1
Empires inevitably over extend themselves putting too much strain on their economy
in order to keep their war machine going. This is akin to the Ukrainian front line
which is over extended and unable to defend itself across the board. This leaves
opportunities for presumed enemies to exploit weaknesses and weaken the hegemon.
Of course this can take years or decades but the end result is always the same. The
U.S. (in particular) is going to find this out the hard way.
Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 20 2023 13:58 utc | 21
I've said this a few days ago. All you had to do was read between the lines of the MSM propaganda.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Feb 20 2023 14:00 utc | 22
Conan the Barbarian: "No sound is more sweet than the whipping and wailing of their think tankers".
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 20 2023 14:01 utc | 23
The West fears the loss of its ... drum roll ... "authority".
Oh God - this will be quite painful, when the heroes of the West understand, that their struggle against "authoritarian rule" could only be a suicidal one.
Posted by: Humml | Feb 20 2023 14:04 utc | 24
Yes, paddy@19, b has compiled a collection of unconscious attempts at humour from the bowels of western "culture."
It's hard to pick a favourite-they are all hilarious, but this is close to the top of any list:
"If reconstruction of Ukraine were to fail, and its economy to falter, then Ukrainian democracy would start to fail, too."
That would be terrible, Ukraine's economy might falter and then, horror of horrors, Ukrainian democracy would start to fail. Before you knew it all political parties would be banned, dissidents beaten up, tortured and disappeared and, worst of all, press freedom would be compromised.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2023 14:04 utc | 25
It’s been one whole year and Russia hasn’t even managed to reclaim the Donbas region, and yet you guys think it’s already a Russian victory, lol. Talk about delusional - the article b mentioned with the missing “armies” has him complaining the media isn’t reporting on the victory of Russian troops at Soledar. Wow, taking a suburb with population of 10,000 is a great victory. If anything it’s surprising how Wagner seems to be doing most of the heavy lifting for Russia despite being a PMC.
Oh but I’m sure since I don’t buy the Russia propaganda about a glorious victory of Ukraine being “denazified” (even though they traded the so called “nazis” in exchange for their own POWs) that must make me a NATO shill and I love Zelensky and Biden, right?
Russia overestimated Ukraine and the West’s response to the situation. The country did not crumble. It may very well in the future, and that’s to be seen. But this war certainly hasn’t gone as Russia planned, and let’s not even get into the idea even if there was total victory, since Finland’s Niinsto still wants to join NATO without Sweden.
The war reminds me of Croatia and Serbia, complete with the stupid Nazis larpers. The incessant bickering goes on and on, denial of any shared heritage, both sides have some truth and also some blood on their hands, then one reckless atrocity justifies the next
Posted by: Test | Feb 20 2023 14:06 utc | 26
Transnistria - it's been a year already...
"Newly elected Prime Minister of Moldova Dorin Recean:
"Transnistria must be demilitarized."
"He also stated that it is necessary to expel Russian troops from Transnistria, and then integrate the inhabitants of the region economically and socially."
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1627467624975155203
If anything kicks off now in Transnistria there has certainly been AMPLE time for Russia to connect a landbridge to Transnistria via Nikolaev & Odessa to prevent this happening.
What in the heck are they waiting for exactly?!!??
If they're trying to prevent escalation and they end up drawing a far wider conflict via Moldova because of the slow pace of the SMO they really only have themselves to blame on that front.
Posted by: Julian | Feb 20 2023 14:06 utc | 27
western fighters for ukronazis!!
last autumn the us' general accounting office went into the problems with the pentagon's $40B a year investments in "tactical aviation".
it seems all those 1970's jets need to hang around longer, with their issues of unreliable engines and depleting spare part stock.
these worn out wunderwaffen need to to go ukraine.
the cause of the aging stuff is f-35 is too expensive, it needs a block 40 upgrade to try and pass inspections, and that upgrade needs to be refitted to the hundreds of f-35 delivered to pay off lockheed.
while usaf and usn cut the number of new f-35's each year to pay for fixes.
and f-35 needs a new brain and and upgrade new jet engine to try and meet the challenges.
send z-comedian the f-16's from poland or holland who cannot tell how many can fly!
who sends their spare engines to z-comedian??
Posted by: paddy | Feb 20 2023 14:08 utc | 28
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 12:57 utc | 2
Now that's a "concerned" troll. Very clear which troughs he's feeding from.
Good place to start is from Telegram channels where you get latest news and raw bloody pics of dead Nazis aplenty.
Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2023 14:10 utc | 29
Feb 20 2023 13:45 utc | 18
if the blob wins the russian federation gets the serbia treatment. dissolved rf will be millions of lives destroyed.
serbia at least had moscow to keep the blob in check...
Posted by: paddy | Feb 20 2023 14:11 utc | 30
Re: Posted by: Elmagnostic | Feb 20 2023 13:09 utc | 4
The US outright robbery of Syrian wheat and oil is prelude to what the US would do to Russia. Everyone in the world knows this. If there is a more rapacious nation than the US, name it.
What are you talking about? Syria already won that war years ago - I read it right here on these pages.
October 07, 2015
Syria, Iraq: Russia Shows Its Cards And Wins
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/10/syria-iraq-russia-shows-it-cards-and-wins.html
Posted by: Julian | Feb 20 2023 14:12 utc | 31
Thx b as usual for the fine analysis.
Some posters like myself see this as a greater spiritual war that may possibly resist the easy reconciliation of accepting multi-polarity. I think it is very wishful thinking.
You are indeed the best when compiling the facts on the ground and developing a cohesive narrative using both the insane and deluded propaganda of the west and the more nuanced and cryptic releases from Russia.
But let us tell the truth about who is fighting who. We say, "the west," but this does not mean the average Joe or dude who has an ideological bone to pick with Russia. Obviously, we must separate the common interest of the average westerner with the greedy, bloodthirsty, and Russiophobic desires of a cabal of elites who control the levers of power in the west. All attempts at smearing the west then as Fascism seem completely pointless and even humorous. The elites in the west have never been at such great a distance from thd plight of the average westerner that to say all westerners share a common purpose is the pinnacle of delusion. Rather, the west is a crumbling edifice that by sheer gargantuan inertia is sallying-forth even though its pulse has long died.
There is no unified counter-struggle because no one yet wants to seize upon the ashes to rebuild and most smart people are readying themselves physically and spiritually to help their families weather what is coming.
And this will be the other shoe to drop. I can't say what it will be.
I just wanted to say thank you and also point out that a great moment is unfolding where what was obscured, and was being actively, is now showing itself. I picture a working V.V.Putin, with greasy hands and overalls, working to get a giant and magnificently ornate clock tower to work again. In no hurry or rush, he is content to haul his tool box up and down the winding stairs to grease and tighten the gears. But being a philosophical man, will not let his work stop him from sharing a lunch with curious onlookers. Come share a lunch with Uncle Vlad! The man who is restarting history!
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 20 2023 14:17 utc | 32
re: The 'West' is going wobbly
US support of Ukraine is no longer "ironclad" it is "unwavering and unflagging."
Statement from President Joe Biden on Travel to Kyiv, Ukraine
As the world prepares to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, I am in Kyiv today to meet with President Zelenskyy and reaffirm our unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. . .here
unwavering: steady or resolute; not wavering.
unflagging: tireless: persistent
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 14:25 utc | 33
Here's a very good site for analysis on what's on in Ukraine.
https://substack.com/profile/125744148-simplicius-the-thinker
Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2023 14:26 utc | 34
One concern that I have seen increasingly mentioned in various Telegram channels is the unstable situation in Moldova. Yesterday, I read that Moldova's leadership called for the de-militarization of Transnistria. According to several sources, Transnistria is the location of a large stockpile of Soviet weapons, supposedly enough for years of war with a relatively small contingent of Russian troops stationed in the country.
I am sure that western intelligence has already been considering how to go about getting NATO hands on that stockpile to deliver to Ukraine. My first thought was "Surely they wouldn't plan a NATO operation INSIDE Russian territory." But, those reckless leaders were responsible for the destruction of Nordstream and as they wallow around like a wounded animal, they are dangerous in the extreme. They may view a raid on those weapons would be a viable alternative to nuclear war.
The 101st Airborne in Romania may not have been put in place for any significant defensive operation, but just for such a raid using planes and rail lines to move the stockpile to Ukraine.
Posted by: Belle | Feb 20 2023 14:27 utc | 35
What we talked about was hinted at.
National Security Adviser John Sullivan said Biden and Zelensky discussed possible future peace talks.As the source explains. The United States always packs evil in the most beautiful wrapper. Perhaps Joe brought some “sad” information and daddy to Zelensky, but to brighten up the negative, he brought a package of military loan assistance for 500 million, but even then they will say about him not in Kiev, but in Poland.
The source indicates that negotiations were going on between Sullivan and Yermak. On the agenda, still the same Sullivan formula.
https://t.me/legitimniy/14817
Posted by: Down South | Feb 20 2023 14:33 utc | 36
Now that's a "concerned" troll. Very clear which troughs he's feeding from.Good place to start is from Telegram channels where you get latest news and raw bloody pics of dead Nazis aplenty.
Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2023 14:10 utc | 29
There are also Telegram channels and even videos on Twitter (I don't know how they allow this) that show bodies of Russian/Wagner troops and even civilians. On AZGeopolitics twitter page, a pro Ukranian poster uploaded a video of dozens of dead Russian/Wagner corpses loaded in a dump trump and a crane was dropping them into a mass grave. There are videos of Lviv , Kiev, and Odessa where citizens are just going about their day like there isn't even a war taking place. Diplomats and celebrities from the West fly in and out of Kiev with no cares in the world.
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 14:34 utc | 37
Dmitry Medvedev on Ukraine and Biden's visit to Kiev :Biden, having received security guarantees beforehand, finally went to Kiev. He promised many weapons and swore allegiance to the neo-Nazi regime to the grave. And, of course, there were mutual incantations of victory that would come with new weapons and brave people. And here it is important to note that the West does indeed supply Kiev with weapons and money on a regular basis, in huge quantities, allowing the military-industrial complex of NATO countries to earn money and steal weapons to sell to terrorists all over the world.
As for the people... It's more complicated than that. I recently had a conversation with natives of the Ukrainian territories. They reminded me of a simple statistic. In 2001, according to the census, the population of Ukraine was about 48.5 million people (including those who were working abroad at the time). Then, in 2014, Crimea and Donbass fell away. Then the SMO and active emigration began, both to Europe and Russia. According to estimates by various experts, a total of 15 to 20 million people left. Therefore, the population of that strange formation (Ukraine), which is known as Okra, is now 20–25 million people, no more. and it tends to shrink.
So tanks and shells are important, of course. But people are certainly more important. And they cannot control either the old man from across the ocean or the gang of junkies from Bankova. Their mass exodus is the answer to the question of who the future is.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/34290
Posted by: Down South | Feb 20 2023 14:36 utc | 38
Russia's Big 'winter / spring' offensive
Russia does not need to launch a big attack. They can just stand there until NATO is unable to re-supply Ukraine to the point where even our MSM cannot deny those facts. By all means, send Ukraine all of our tanks and our entire fleet of F-35's. Russia will chop it to pieces.
Not only is this an effective strategy but it also exposes one big lie to the U.S. public. For months on end, DC has been telling us that Russia is losing, Russia is bleeding to death. I doubt that even the PR masters at DC could wiggle out of that lie.
This might actually be Russia's strategy.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Feb 20 2023 14:36 utc | 39
Biden needed permission from Putin for the visit
Fox
US warned Russia of Biden's visit to Ukraine 'hours' before departure
U.S. officials warned Russia that President Biden was visiting the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv hours before he made the trip, the White House National Security Council revealed Monday.
National security officials provided more details about Biden's surprise trip to Ukraine on Monday, calling the trip unprecedented given the lack of U.S. military infrastructure in the war-torn region. Reporters pressed national security adviser Jake Sullivan on whether the U.S. had warned Moscow that Biden was headed to Kyiv, a city scarred with Russian missile strikes.
"We did notify the Russians that President Biden would be traveling to Kyiv," Sullivan told reporters Monday. "We did so some hours before his departure for de-confliction purposes.". . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 14:36 utc | 40
China has not yet supported Russia in the war. But if Russia would seem to lose the war China would have to intervene. It would otherwise become the very next country that the U.S. would try to obliterate.
This is incorrect. If Russia "loses" there will be no US, no China and almost no humans left on the planet. A world without sovereign Russia cannot exist. The US fights to the last Ukrainian. Russia fights to the last human on earth. If Russia is about to lose then its in the best interest of every human being to invade the US.
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 20 2023 14:36 utc | 41
A dispassionate analysis of the Syria war would conclude that Syria won, with an asterisk. The asterisk being the Western resort to treachery, insofar as leveraging the SDF to seize oil in the northeastern section. Also Turkey's continual hold on Idlib province, which may be slipping away, yet the story is not finished.
The reason I say this is that both Obama and Hillary, along with all the other neo-cons, made clear their goal was "Assad must go." He's still there, they're gone.
Posted by: Chris | Feb 20 2023 14:40 utc | 42
@bored [2]
I like the way you talk about wanting Russia to win and so sorry they are losing as this could all end American imperialism. We know what you mean !!
Forked tongue indeed.
Posted by: Cocochanel | Feb 20 2023 14:42 utc | 43
I wonder how are they going to spin the fact of their loss. I remember after the Vietnam War (in which I had the "pleasure" to participate) the Media saying that the US had won and that they just had "Accomplished their Mission".
Posted by: Viktor K | Feb 20 2023 14:42 utc | 44
"On the war’s anniversary it’s time for a concerted effort to persuade Americans of a single idea: We should support Ukraine as much as it takes, as long as it takes, until the Russian military suffers a decisive, unmistakable defeat."
Not gonna happen, is my prediction.
And I will fight it tooth and nail as best I can.
Posted by: Michigan Dude | Feb 20 2023 14:47 utc | 45
[.]The only still open alternatives are to risk a large nuclear war or to retreat from 'western' dreams of its permanent hegemony.
Few 'western' officials will admit that the war is lost, that Russia has won in Ukraine. But it has. It had won the war when it successfully trapped the Ukrainian army into a war of attrition.[.]
@ b
Thanks b. I’ll be sending you a feather.
Western officials are wrapped in arrogance and will not let go of their hegemonic dreams. Letting go means relinquishing all “doctrines” of the last 80 years and the dollar weapon that funds $2.4 trillion deficits and so they will double down.
No way, too soon after Afghan to face a double embarrassment. Biden and Nuland invested heavily in UKR over ten years and I wager Biden has many skeletons in the UKR closet.
Biden goes from Kiev to Poland. Waiting for him to mouth the word “Dnieper”.... that "Putin must retreat from all territories east of the diaper including Crime."
= = = = = =
[.]As it stands Ukraine (with massive NATO support) is grinding Russia down. [.]
@ bored Post 2.
Another Drive-by Troll assigned to MoA; likely from Team Jorge.
Your script needs a re-write. Did not fool anyone.
Please read the fulsome of your comment. That Rx your doctor prescribed for your condition should be taken to the closest pharmacy you can find.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 20 2023 14:48 utc | 46
I know it's not right to assassinate foreign leaders, but Putin just missed a beautiful chance. No one would miss rapist, war criminal Joe Biden and his penis-less sock puppet Zelensky.
But then I remember, Russia has already won. It's all over but the choosing of the final contractors to rebuild what's left for 'the west' to rebuild in that sad land with stupid people.
Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 20 2023 15:01 utc | 47
What result can be expected from Kamala Harris's recent proclamation that -
"The United States has formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity."
A formal determination. Blinken wore a tuxedo when it was determined.
Did Kamala laugh inappropriately when she made that statement?
Why or why not? That gal loves uproarious laughter! So much fun!
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Feb 20 2023 15:02 utc | 48
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 14:34 utc | 37
Guess your CIA supervisor didn't give you this message.
"We did notify the Russians that President Biden would be traveling to Kyiv," Sullivan told reporters Monday. "We did so some hours before his departure for de-confliction purposes.". .
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 14:36 utc | 40
Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2023 15:05 utc | 49
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K67-Jc6qpUY
I was wondering how the US military in various European posts feel about the authenticity of the posts regarding the Ukraine /Russian involvement? Does MofA have a specific site for overseas posts?
IF this and other doctors feel these 'vaccine' shots are actually to wear down the immune system, and there is a plan of decades to eliminate major proportions of the population, there would have to be substantial awareness to 'backtrack' from corporate control and recind power of multi nationals.
My age allows me to speculate as to the solar flares culminating each 11 years, next one 2225, being the actual event that the reduced immunity of the human population is engineered for. A weakened group exposed to environmental excesses..........that's the plan , isn't it?
Posted by: katesisco | Feb 20 2023 15:05 utc | 50
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 14:34 utc | 37
Yup. Life is normal in Nazi Ukraine.
🇺🇦🏴☠️ In Cherkassy, civilians peacefully were celebrating a birthday in a cafe, but the military commissars with summonses to the front came and ruined everything.
Zelensky calls them volunteers🤪🤪🤪
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/52935
Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2023 15:09 utc | 51
But maybe Poland, in its futile but[sic] to be Ukraine's savior, can convince its own pilots to suicide themselves in an environment that is saturated with Su-57s fighter jets and S-400 air defenses.
Erm, what? I don't know how many S-400s Russia has, but it certainly can't "saturate" the environment with SU-57s; last I heard they have a couple dozen of them.
I suspect fighter-on-fighter action between peer powers is largely over at this point. MANPADs and larger SAM units have made flying them anywhere near the battlespace too risky. Neither Russia nor the West want their expensive toys being filmed as expensive piles of smouldering wreckage in a Ukrainian cornfield.
Posted by: Observer | Feb 20 2023 15:13 utc | 52
"In the New York Times one David French warns that America Can’t Go ‘Wobbly’ on Ukraine"
French is a supposedly "evangelical conservative" commentator who doe nothing but tell evangelical Christians to surrender on anything they actually care about- for example, French has argued that they should shut up and accept drag queen story time as a "blessing of liberty". He is a contraindicator to what right-wing Christians in America actually think.
Posted by: catdog | Feb 20 2023 15:13 utc | 53
The only reason Russia has not created the biggest ghost town in the world (aka Old Ukri) is Political.
Posted by: Viktor K | Feb 20 2023 15:14 utc | 54
What happens if Russia wins? Predictions, please.
I think after a couple weeks, the subject gets pulled from Western headlines. If you want to see news about Ukraine begging for food and money, you will need to go to RT or Sputnik. If the US can ignore the greatest military on earth (??!!) being defeated by goat herders with no air force, I suspect the outcome will be the same. As if it never happened.
The Neo Cons will push for war with China, however bizarre that seems. They may say, 'it's a Navy war, not a land war". The wild card after Russian victory is the US economy and decay of its finances. I suspect neither Russia nor China really want the death of the dollar but may be pushed into it, as with much else offering no choice in confronting the US.
As for the EU, they are half broke cowards mostly. NATO will go on weakly. Being even more feeble than before doesn't bode well for throwing off US control. The big question is whether Hungary, Poland and Romania send in troops and form protectorates. Also, will Ukraine allow or even welcome that?
The big dangerous obstacle for Russia is Odessa and linking up with Transistria. So far, taking big cities doesn't seem like their forte. Maybe they get lucky and roll over terrain after enough male Ukrainian males are extinct.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2023 15:14 utc | 55
Poland might fully enter the conflict on the grounds that the Ukrainian lands bordering Poland become Polish lands, this would buy Nato some time, but time to do what exactly? As you rightly say China is next on the Nato list so it HAS to aid its ally Russia, so either way Russia wins.
Nato would be smart to manufacture some sort of exit strategy that doesn't make it look too bad to the rest of the world.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 20 2023 15:31 utc | 56
Here's an interesting article on what many are saying will happen later this week.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed
Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2023 15:31 utc | 57
It is a truly surreal experience to read this site. Onwards to Odessa, brave Russian Army wich has spent a goddamn three months taking the small city of Bakhmut and still has not mamaged it. Onwards glorious russian army itno defensive positions prepped and calculated, its shall be amazing, like Djenghis Khan! A killratio of 20 to 1 for the attackers is assured as it has been in the propaganda all along!
I always wonder what it must be like to be a QAnon level fanboy of a military force.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Feb 20 2023 15:34 utc | 58
Ooh a more “muscular international coalition,” says WaPo, sounds delightful, I’ll sign on for that (like several intelligence agencies are one would presume).
b - you are a genius. Thanks for the post.
The correct course of action for me today, I thought, was to post a link to Sunday’s episode of CBC’s The National which looks to provide some insightful context, after I’d watched it. But because it looks to provide insightful context on the war, I just can’t bring myself to watch it. Head in the sand - I don’t want to know. But here’s the link if anyone else who’s braver is curious about it.
https://youtu.be/jIjAuu-JB_4
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Feb 20 2023 15:42 utc | 59
USUKIS, the losers in this war, have lost because they are totally divided. Only a a very small percentage of European
society is convinced of the value of Right wing market forces capitalism. The 1% who enjoy its privileges will never convince the 99% who are losers of its merit.
All they have achieved is a unity among gravy-training MSM , politicians and Corporate businessmen that greed vincit omnia. So when you look at the supreme commander of NATO, he doesn't look like a man who shares the ideals of his political masters, and maybe he would prefer those ideals to fail.
Empires only fail when they over-rule and over-ride popular opinion. Waging illegal wars pisses off everybody. Insulting your major global trading partners pisses off everybody, manipulating elections pisses off everybody. Is there anybody out there who does not secretly want USUKIS to miserably fail?
And how would USUKIS expect to win a war which all of their own side opposes , nevermind the rest of the world?
Posted by: Giyane | Feb 20 2023 15:50 utc | 60
Posted by: Fnord73 | Feb 20 2023 15:34 utc | 58
It is a truly surreal experience to read this site.
Why come back day after day then? There are hundreds of other sites you could be visiting and/or commenting on. We know why you come back daily: You're a paid troll (of which there are many who infest this site as well others).
Onwards to Odessa, brave Russian Army wich has spent a goddamn three months taking the small city of Bakhmut and still has not mamaged it.
You, like numerous other trolls, ignore the fact this war isn't a race to acquire territory, rather it's a race to destroy the opposing side's military. That is Russia's primary objective and is why casualties on the Ukie side are ~10x the Russian side.
Posted by: Jax | Feb 20 2023 15:51 utc | 61
The septic tank thinkers are probably tearing their hair out. Should be an uptick in fat fuck baldies walking around certain D.C. neighborhoods.
Posted by: natokraine | Feb 20 2023 15:58 utc | 62
reply to 58
Bakhmut shouldn't be used as an example since the strategy there isn't clear. I would find it hard to believe that, after explicitly telling the world that they intend to grind Ukraine down, they overlook such an obvious opportunity. Zelensky provides an endless stream of soldiers, delivered to Russian lines, to be killed. It's terribly convenient for Russia to let it go on as long as possible.
The better example would be Mariupol. Taking Odessa is a real concern. It may entirely depend on breaking Ukraine into defenseless panic and then rolling in.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2023 15:59 utc | 63
Poland might fully enter the conflict on the grounds that the Ukrainian lands bordering Poland become Polish lands
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 20 2023 15:31 utc | 56
You say Poland will enter Ukr to take a part of territory or that Poland will attack Donbass based on a pinky swear between the girls Duda and Zely?
If they enter to take Lvov, why would Russia not like that? They have no interest in that area and it will finish Ukr as a country from the Western perspective too. The only problem that can appear is if they move to take Odessa since the 5 Russian soldiers are far away. Even then, it would be entertaining for us because we get to see how Poland goes boom. And if Poland can take a part of Ukr, what will stop Hungary to take a part of Ukr? Are they lower in the nato slave ranking or what? Romania is lower, no one cares about them.
Posted by: rk | Feb 20 2023 16:06 utc | 64
"I always wonder what it must be like to be a QAnon level fanboy of a military force.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Feb 20 2023 15:34 utc | 58"
Its very easy. Just go to any Western mainstream media source and you will see extreme QAnon level fanboy of a Nazi military "force" firsthand. LoL
Posted by: Comandante | Feb 20 2023 16:07 utc | 65
The destruction of the Nazi armed forces was done with very quiet complicity of USA Inc. Biden & Co. have eagerly fed their nazi minions into the RAF meat grinder. It could have been an indefinite stand-off.
But once their war games demonstrated that the "west" could not win against RICS+, a deal had to be arranged: Security for Russia, destruction of Nazis(usa needed this also), dissolution of nato(eastern at least), demilitarization of NATO(not just Ukraine), dissolution of Ukraine FOR assistance in western deleveraging, preservation of a reduced dollar, rise in US interest rates, repatriation of oligarchy capital to USA, forced sale of US nat gas to EU, ETC. What else?
Why do we see no plans to rebuild western militaries?
If you cant beat em, join em.
The Brits (aka City of London) and their Neocons do not like this and may be trying to sabotage it. Hersch article tries to take down Biden. Russians stated Anglos and Poles blew NS1&2.
David Walsh AIA
917 327 8859
The destruction of the Nazi armed forces was done with very quiet complicity of USA Inc. Biden & Co. have eagerly fed their nazi minions into the RAF meat grinder. It could have been an indefinite stand-off.
But once their war games demonstrated that the "west" could not win against RICS+, a deal had to be arranged: Security for Russia, destruction of Nazis(usa needed this also), dissolution of nato(eastern at least), demilitarization of NATO(not just Ukraine), dissolution of Ukraine
FOR
assistance in western deleveraging, preservation of a reduced dollar, rise in US interest rates, repatriation of oligarchy capital to USA, forced sale of US nat gas to EU, ETC. What else?
Why do we see no plans to rebuild western militaries?
If you cant beat em, join em.
The Brits (aka City of London) and their Neocons do not like this and may be trying to sabotage it. Hersch article tries to take down Biden. Russians stated Anglos and Poles blew NS1&2.
The 'West' indeed:Thank You, "b", for placing the word 'vest' within raised inverted commas. Also, as long as this World is round, (I.e: sircular.)i makes sence to talk about 'The South" and "north" as meaningful terms, while East and West are only relatives that have to be specified. Personally, I prefer to refer to NATO and it other allied satrapies and self-pawned protecorates as "The Atlatis sinking or ballooning bubble".
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Feb 20 2023 16:09 utc | 67
"I always wonder what it must be like to be a QAnon level fanboy of a military force.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Feb 20 2023 15:34 utc | 58"
"Thank you for your service..."
Posted by: irish al | Feb 20 2023 16:10 utc | 68
I wouldn’t put it past these weaselly, slippery generation of so-called leaders (quite a few un-elected) to take us to a nuclear exchange with Russia. If not, close to the brink of it.
Posted by: Jose Garcia | Feb 20 2023 16:14 utc | 69
Blinken fabricates nonsense of what Putin thinks, which is different from what Putin has actually said. This may kick off a new trend: 'I know you said white, but you were thinking black, and it isn't black.'
from State - Blinken
I think virtually everything that President Putin tried to do, the opposite has happened. He thought that he could erase Ukraine from the map, eliminate its identity, subsume it into Russia. That hasn’t happened and it won’t happen. He thought he could divide NATO, he thought he could divide the transatlantic community. On the contrary, there’s greater solidarity, greater common purpose than at any time that I remember. And in terms of his own country, what he’s done is having horrific consequences. . .here
Antony is an ineffective diplomat like his predecessor/tutor Hillary, who also said "horrific" a lot.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:15 utc | 70
It is a truly surreal experience to read this site.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Feb 20 2023 15:34 utc | 58
The great NATO army fought for 21 years the herdsmen in Afghanistan with no real weapons and no real training until they finally ran away in panic. Watch how Zelensky shares the fate of Ashraf Ghani and flees on a plane with suitcases full of cash.
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 20 2023 16:20 utc | 71
Re: Posted by: rk | Feb 20 2023 16:06 utc | 64
It's an interesting question.
My guess is Russia would be happy to cede Lviv/Lvov, Volyn & Rivne to Poland. These oblasts offer nothing to Russia except entanglement and resentment - Putin has even talked of this many times himself!
Russia would also be happy to cede Zakarpattia to Hungary. This would also give Hungary and Poland a border for the first time in awhile. In a post-Ukraine conflict world both Hungary & Poland might find this beneficial.
Russia would also likely be happy to cede Chernivitsi to Romania.
The question is - what would happen to Ternopil & Ivano-Frankvisk?
If Russia wants a land border with Hungary - why not, they should maximise their victory - then they need at least slices of these two oblasts.
Perhaps the northern half (approximately) of Ternopil & Ivano-Frankvisk could go to Poland and the bottom half (approximately) could go to some sort of agreed split between Russia/Hungary/Romania.
What could Russia ask/demand in return for Poland for "Peace in this time"? They should demand a sliver (30km? 50km? Not sure the width really matters) of Polish land to attach to Kaliningrad that links Kaliningrad to Belarus.
Who would not like this? Obviously the Baltic States would hate it. So what? Does Poland want peace or obliteration?
The others who wouldn't like this would obviously be the US/UK. Could Poland do a flip at this point and say they've resolved their issues with Russia and now want to exit the Franco-German EU?
Many things are possible in the heat/aftermath of war.
Polish hatred of Russia/Russians is legendary - but could they actually make a right decision for once and take their winnings and leave the game before going all-in?
It is possible - and the way the EU is going after Poland - why not?
Who could convince Poland to take such a deal regarding Ukraine/Kaliningrad - well, the obvious candidate is Mr. Viktor Orban to play the intermediary and convince the Poles to come to their senses.
Why not?
Posted by: Julian | Feb 20 2023 16:20 utc | 72
" There are also Telegram channels and even videos on Twitter (I don't know how they allow this) that show bodies of Russian/Wagner troops and even civilians. On AZGeopolitics twitter page, a pro Ukranian poster uploaded a video of dozens of dead Russian/Wagner corpses loaded in a dump trump and a crane was dropping them into a mass grave.
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2023 14:34 utc | 37 "
Quote from a video made by Wagner troops.
" Every day we lose hundreds of our comrades-in-arms. There could have been far fewer losses if we had been supplied with weapons and ammunition, with everything that is necessary. "
https://southfront.org/losses-of-wagner-pmc-amid-military-logistics-issues-appeals-video/
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Feb 20 2023 16:21 utc | 73
It seems a human condition that empires fall to corruption first. Look at America - it has this bloated military budget but much of it is ineffective and/or infererior for this type of battle. It is a sea and air power, and even its bloated air carriers could all get wiped out with hypersonic missiles.
In terms of economics, much of the US' GDP is in FIRE - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, none of which is based on materials. It is no longer an industrial power, like China and Russia are. Trillions of dollars are simply spend in bribes through elections. It's well known that only the poor and the stupid go to jail; almost everyone with a proper lawyer goes to jail. The ultra rich get richer while the poor get poorer. These are all signs that corruption has sapped away at the once mightiful US power. Its main advance in the last 20 years has been increasing the power of propaganda and psychological manipulation.
The US likely wants to increase its industry by siphoning some from Germany, but it is too late for anything like that to help with Russia now.
Posted by: Matthew | Feb 20 2023 16:21 utc | 74
Antony is an ineffective diplomat
Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:15 utc | 70
He is but this is classic propaganda. They invent something like a threat or enemy, fight an imaginary war and they even win the imaginary war. They said Russia will take Kiev in 3 days just to say at a later moment that Russia failed to take Kiev in 3 days.
The next message will be that Putin wanted to reach Berlin but the brave happy men from nato army have stopped him at Ukr borders.
Posted by: rk | Feb 20 2023 16:21 utc | 75
" I know it's not right to assassinate foreign leaders, but Putin just missed a beautiful chance.
Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 20 2023 15:01 utc | 47 "
Where is that written ? I would love to see the official rules on this.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Feb 20 2023 16:23 utc | 76
Posted by: Julian | Feb 20 2023 14:12 utc | 31
As usual, me and Israel are the last to face the truth. It is a wonderful world after all and oil is a dollar a barrel. Thanks!
(Israel may be running out of ammunition, so things are looking up.)
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Feb 20 2023 16:23 utc | 77
@ keen-bee 11
That book, "Death Object" is clickbait and BS. You offered no reason for anyone to waste their time on it. The author has his own blurb at archive.org, but it's all hand-wave about how US national security won't let him explain anything directly. I'm sure the book is more of the same. So look at it logically. You say we don't have to worry about nuclear weapons because of something about the weapons themselves? That could only Abe if these weapons don't exist, but the proof is overwhelming that they do. Background radiation from fallout, physical evidence from actual nuclear explosions by many nations, etc. It's worse than the usual clickbait because pretending there are no nuclear weapons is massive insanity, and dangerous.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Feb 20 2023 16:25 utc | 78
@Deplorable Commissar | Feb 20 2023 16:21 utc | 73
Wagner officers send unarmed troops into combat and then complain about what they did. . . .stupid . .or BS?
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:29 utc | 79
@40
NYTimes fake news
Biden Visits Kyiv, Ukraine’s Embattled Capital, as Air-Raid Siren Sounds
President Biden took a nearly 10-hour train ride from the border of Poland to show his administration’s “unwavering support” nearly a year into Russia’s invasion.
President Biden made a surprise trip to the embattled capital of Ukraine on Monday, traveling under a cloak of secrecy [not] into a war zone to demonstrate what he called America’s “unwavering support” of the effort to beat back Russian forces nearly a year after they invaded the country. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:37 utc | 80
" Wagner officers send unarmed troops into combat and then complain about what they did. . . .stupid . .or BS?
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:29 utc | 79 "
I doubt Wagner troops have an option not to follow orders, so they are either lying through their teeth or they're telling the truth. Additionally, I've seen plenty of videos of Wagnerites getting slaughtered because they attack fortifications head on. Based on those videos alone their causalities must be very high.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Feb 20 2023 16:38 utc | 81
The problem in trying to analyze this war is that you are not dealing with rational people on the U.S./NATO side. In addition, and probably most importantly, you are not dealing with people who have any moral compass on the U.S./NATO side.
Posted by: george 1 | Feb 20 2023 16:43 utc | 82
Next few days to be decisive for whole world - Baerbock
The next several days will be decisive both for the course of the Russian war on Ukraine and, in general, for the further development of the world.
This was stated by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who spoke at a joint press conference with her Filipino counterpart Enrique Manalo after their talks in Berlin, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
"The next few days will be decisive, not only with regard to Ukraine, but decisive for peace in the whole world," Baerbock said. . .here
Is the US going to sabotage the German electrical lines next?
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:45 utc | 83
thanks b....
of course no one ever lies... especially in a war, lol.... who would lie?? everyone is so honourable!! i hope biden packed a lunch on his 10 hour train ride, lol.... or did he have his wife doting on him and making sure he got his meds or knew where he was? the humour never ends...
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 16:45 utc | 84
@ Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:45 utc | 83
is baerbock thinking of stepping down?? yes - this could be a key turn of events for germany and the whole world!!
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 16:47 utc | 85
@Deplorable Commissar | Feb 20 2023 16:38 utc | 81
I doubt Wagner troops have an option not to follow orders
I said officers.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 16:47 utc | 86
Ah, it is so tiring to read the thread from top to bottom. Always forgetting to check the name first..
Posted by: C | Feb 20 2023 16:48 utc | 87
""This war is not a European matter. This war has terrible implications for the whole world. Therefore, these very days in New York, the whole world will appeal to President Putin with a call to stop the war, withdraw his troops, and work toward restoring peace," the top diplomat emphasized."
what an idiot.. on the one hand admonishing olaf for not sending the tanks and on the other hand this drivel... what a complete moron.. i thought it was embarrassing to be a canuck and having freeland, but this would be more embarrassing..
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 16:49 utc | 88
I can't keep up with you b
I just pasted the ZH quote about the White House calling Russia ahead of Biden's visit to Kiev on three other threads here this morning and so will stop now because you have a thread about it....sigh
What I will add is what I said at the end of the ZH quote
We are all Hollywood now
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 20 2023 16:54 utc | 89
No matter how many tanks an army may possess, they are almost nest to useless unless supported from the air. The German army discovered this in the last war; for example, the initial attempt by the Germans to take the Crimea failed because Erich von Manstein's troops were not given cover by the Luftwaffe; the same was also true at the end of the war with Ardennes Offensive (Battle of the Bulge) in December 1944/January 1945 when the German offensive collapsed due to lack of protecting air cover - there are many other examples one can cite. The enormous number of tanks that The Ukraine army have already lost in this war speaks for itself - these European leaders we have today, who still seem to think that Ukraine can 'win', really seem to have no idea of European history - indeed, this may be part of the problem. Twenty years ago there was still a generation who remembered the war - today's generation of politicians are well removed from its memory - except in Russia where memories have been kept alive - hardly surprising considering that over 20 million Russians died in that war.
Posted by: Terence Reeves-Smyth | Feb 20 2023 16:55 utc | 90
Very well written, very fresh, very true!
I disagree however with your view of wars of attrition, and what can be accomplished in them. Engaging in a war of attrition has always meant kicking the can down the road. Wars of attrition aren't "won". They don't settle any dispute, especially in our age of make-believe, irrationality, and lack of authority. They don't actually solve the problem that opponents go to war for. Limiting yourself to a war of attrition may be the sensible thing to do, but they have to be followed by something. That could be an armistice, or a negotiated peace, if the weaker side comes to its senses, or is pressed by some 3rd party, or undergoes a change of leadership internally. Ask yourselves now, is this an option in the NATO/Ukraine war against Russia? No, it's totally out of the question. So Russia will have to deliver the coup-de-grace at some point and re-arrange Ukraine for good. There is no other way. So maybe we're finally about to see just that. I wish we are.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Feb 20 2023 16:56 utc | 91
It seems a stretch to read those three articles as proof that the media "realizes" that the War is lost. I wonder if b is construing the articles to reaffirm a pre-existing conclusion.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Feb 20 2023 16:59 utc | 92
Re: Posted by: Julian | Feb 20 2023 16:20 utc | 72
I should add, if Russia wants to do a "deal" with Poland & Hungary (& maybe Romania?) they could say this whole war is the fault of the Franco-German axis in the EU which has used the glove of the US/UK military lust to force the confrontation behind the scenes.
In essence, to settle the conflict Russia could ask Hungary & Poland to leave the EU (they can stay in NATO - for the time being anyway as I don't see the US/UK quitting on Poland anytime soon) - but Poland & Hungary could definitely both leave the EU if they had a viable alternative offered.
Posted by: Julian | Feb 20 2023 17:05 utc | 93
Well it seems to me the "West" wants to cash in its chips and walk away from the table. But the house rules appear to be that you have to keep playing until everyone agrees to end the game.
There is a thing now in modern miltary theory that the actual events on the battlefield only represnt maybe 1/5 of the real war - the rest is fought in economic, PR, cyber, political and other more esoteric aspects. Well this must be right to a point, but it is no point winning the Twittter battle if your legions are reduced to smoking piles of twisted metal and grieving families, your treasury empty,and your land is occupied by the enemy.
Whereas I think the "west" collectively believes that Russia is losing (and may have "lost") militarily, nonetheless they are worried about the (now) imposing quantity fresh Russian troops could create a very bad situation for their interests and narrative. So they chance their arm on peace terms that would be wholly unacceptable to Russia, unless the Russians themselves believed they could in fact not win and are losing.
I don't think this is the case. If you read what the Russians say then they mean business. I think they mean to finish this to their advantage. The peace treaty terms will be "sign here".
Whilst personally I think they need to show some significant ground gained, it is clear that Russia needs to destroy the UAF and in particular its mobile, air-defence and long-range missile forces to the extent they cannot be a credible threat for years to come, if ever again. It may be the current glacial advance is simply "shaping the battlefield", and it may be the decisive operations will take place over the summer. It may also be that the Russians want the Ukraine to throw any rebuilt mobile reserve into attack and lose it - so they are in no hurry.
I don't know, not being a mind reader and all that. What I would say though is whatever time frame the Russians have in mind, and in due respect to the capabilities of their military (whether good or bad), they are not minded to lose this existential conflict. Personally I'd speed things up, but I don't have access to their inner thinking, plans and information.
I believe the USA through its proxy Ukraine caused this war in quite a clever way to allow it to spin a narrative that Russia was "invading" and its goal was to restore the USSR's borders. Whatever. The "West" hoped the 4/5 that were not the kinetic shooting war stuff would topple the Putin regime.The USA may have bet its shirt on a pair of 2s on a blind draw, not realising Putin was playing with a stacked deck in his own casino.
Posted by: marcjf | Feb 20 2023 17:08 utc | 94
Hate to disagree with B.s solid analysis but…..
It’s my belief that as long as Washington can use debt to fund its deficit spending, the Ukrainian Civil War will continue. What stops Washington sending ‘lawyers, guns, and money’ to Kiev is de-dollarization.
Therefore the only path to peace is De-Dollarization.
Just my thoughts fellow Barflies
Posted by: Exile | Feb 20 2023 17:12 utc | 95
I don't think the change from a mobile war to a war of attrition was a change in strategy by Russia. Rather to win a war of attrition against the strong defence positions that Ukraine has laid outside Donbas over 8 years, meant inserting twice as much or more Russian artillery in the course of a few weeks before Kiev realised what they were doing.
That is what the Distraction Rajd was all about, and pretty cheap in costs it was too.
And i love the idea that losing 9000 sq km of land against a well publicised invasion in a couple of weeks and then winning some 6000 sq km of land a few months later represented some huge success by Ukraine. It either represented a horrendous defeat at the beginning, or we should re-assess what "taking undefended land with a few troops and then not digging in" actually means.
Posted by: Mickey Droy | Feb 20 2023 17:12 utc | 96
NBC
China hits back . . .
HONG KONG — China hit back on Monday against United States allegations that it may be providing Russia nonlethal military assistance in its war on Ukraine, telling Washington to stay out of its relationship with the Kremlin.
“The U.S. is not qualified to give orders to China,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular news briefing. “We will never accept U.S. criticism, even coercion and pressure on China-Russia relations.” . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 20 2023 17:21 utc | 97
@ Exile | Feb 20 2023 17:12 utc | 95
i think that is the other half of the equation here which is open to speculation no doubt.. cheers..
Posted by: james | Feb 20 2023 17:23 utc | 98
The collective West--led by the Anglo American Axis nations--are collective psychopaths.
These "peace-loving democracies" have had no problem bombing weaker countries back to the Stone Age and raining Shock and Awe down on Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Serbia, Somalia, Vietnam, or North Korea--not to mention trying to regime change, economic sanction, or destabilize dozens of other nations from Iran to Syria to Africa to Latin America.
Now, the only thing stopping these Anglo American and Euro psychopaths from escalating to the nuclear war threshold against peer or near peer nations (like Russia or China) is their own cowardice--namely, the fear that their supposed civilized nations will also be deservedly annihilated if they escalate their wars too far.
This is only way to deter the Anglo American menace: put the fear of God in them that they will receive a taste of their own medicine, if they go too far.
America in particular will have to learn that bitter lesson, one way or another.
Posted by: ak74 | Feb 20 2023 17:36 utc | 99
I worked in a US weapons supply firm in Irân before the Shah fell. At some installations, there were US army veterans from Viet-Nâm. In general, those former combat soldiers had worse physical ( bodyly) capacities and lower strength than those who had only served as supply personelle.
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Feb 20 2023 18:01 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Empires always dream of “permanent hegemony”, the result of gaining power, retaining it or attempting to regain it. Ultimately, it is impossible because power is an illusion – impermanent – cannot be held for ever. Rulers cannot accept this reality: always convinced ultimate victory will be theirs. They will “risk a large nuclear war”, convincing themselves the risk is not there.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Feb 20 2023 12:56 utc | 1