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The current open thread for other issues is here.

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The reactions to yesterday's Moon of Alabama post have demonstrated how easy it is for government propagandists to yank the leash of their subjects.

More than half of comments are about barely informed Covid conspiracies theories. Only few recognized the propaganda item for what it was. The starting point of a new China hate campaign that will divert the public from mass casualties in Ukraine and other issues.

After the Wall Street Journal launched its Sunday leak the New York Times and the Washington Post also jumped onto the train. The Times thankfully does better than the WSJ given the 'low confidence' expressed about the 'intelligence' a prominent position instead of hiding it deep down in its piece:

Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says
The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus.

The Post is less cautious. It is putting the content into the context of some 'storied team known as Z-Division' without ever explaining what that entity is.

Little-known scientific team behind new assessment on covid-19 origins
Small shift in favor of ‘lab leak’ theory was prompted by new data and group of weapons-lab scientists

The stenographers of various main stream media outlets understood the propaganda hints given to them and were eager to offer their participation in it.

Laura Rozen @lrozen – 20:00 UTC · Feb 27, 2023

(the number of questions at the WH press briefing about a low confidence assessment by two of 18 agencies, disputed by others, also with low confidence, on the origins of covid 19, …strikes me as bizarre. it seems there is so little there there, …)
…
would almost think it would not be worth reporting except as a footnote.

That is certainly correct if it were the real issue. But the context is much wider. The coming weeks will see a larger campaign of China bashing.

As the Post notes:

Cont. reading: The Context Of The New Anti-China Campaign

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Edward, you are an idiot.

Edward Snowden @Snowden – 15:36 UTC · Feb 26, 2023

Do you remember the "institutional" and social media corpo response in the first half of 2020 when someone contradicted the consensus? They were punished for the "crime" of "disinformation."

Corporations must never again be permitted to police speech.

wsj.com
WSJ News Exclusive | Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Agency Now Says
The Energy Department’s revised assessment of how the pandemic started is based on new intelligence.

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bigger—

Cont. reading: Edward Snowdon Signs On To Distribute U.S. Gov Propaganda

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Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• Feb 19 – The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Feb 20 – The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Sunday, February 20, 2022
• Feb 21 – The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Monday, February 21, 2022
• Feb 22 – The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Tuesday, February 22, 2022
• Feb 23 – The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Wednesday, February 23, 2022
• Feb 24 – The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Closure
  Related:
  – Mearsheimer talk Feb 23 2023 (vid, 1:55h)
  – Jacques Baud : “Le renseignement est un outil de propagande sur l’Ukraine” (vid, 1:22h) – Omerta

• Feb 20 – Recognizing The War Is Lost The 'West' Seeks An Exit
• Feb 22 – How The U.S. (And UK) Sabotaged Peace In Ukraine
• Feb 25 – Ukraine – Those Guns Unknown To Me
  Related:
  – G-20 meeting in India ends without consensus on Ukraine war – AP
  – An Unexpected Insight (for the Élite): The U.S. May Be the Biggest Loser in the War on Russia – Alastair Crooke /SCO
  – Don’t Let Retired Generals Drag America Into the Ukraine War – 1945

• Feb 24 – U.S. Hegemony – At War With China's Global Security Initiative
  Related:
  – Anti-China Rhetoric Is Off the Charts in Western Media – The Diplomat
  – Senators Urge Halt to Chinese Carriers Overflying Russia on U.S. Flights – USNews
  – American paranoia How the First World War triggered a wave of xenophobia and a Red Scare – TLS

Bahman Kalbasi @BahmanKalbasi – 16:01 UTC · Feb 24, 2023

Awkward moment in UN Security Council just now. Ukraine FM asked members to stand for a moment of silence in memory of lives lost to Russian aggression.

Russian diplomats refused to stand saying they will only do so if it is in memory of all victims since 2014. Watch the rest.
video

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-46

Over the last months I read each Daily Report on the war in Ukraine by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The reports list the losses of the Ukrainian side on each of the major fronts. I was especially interested in the dedicated counter-artillery campaign the Russian's have been waging during the last two months.

They numbers in the Russian reports may be wrong or exaggerated but they are in a range that is plausible for such a high intensity operation.

bigger

The average daily Ukrainian losses are 12 major artillery pieces, one artillery radar and 3 to 4 artillery ammunition points or depots. The Ukrainian losses of men are listed at around 400+ per day. (The reports exclude the Wagner operations in Bakhmut/Artyomovsk.)

Cont. reading: Ukraine – Those Guns Unknown To Me

This is the concluding thread of the small Moon of Alabama series on the buildup to war in Ukraine.

Here is a list of the the posts belonging to it.

• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Sunday, February 13, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Monday, February 14, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Tuesday, February 15, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Wednesday, February 16, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Thursday, February 17, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Friday, February 18, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Saturday, February 19, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Sunday, February 20, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Monday, February 21, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Tuesday, February 22, 2022
• The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Wednesday, February 23, 2022

I decided to add a copy of the piece I wrote and posted for Moon of Alabama on Thursday February 24, 2022, a few hours after the war had begun. It looked at the likely outcome of the war. I am somewhat astonished and relieved that today, one year later, I see no reasons to correct my previous outlook.

Repost:

Disarming Ukraine – Thursday, February 24, 2022

The military of Russia has launched an operation to disarm, and possibly regime change, the Ukraine.

I do understand why Russia is doing this – it is either attack now or defend itself later with way more casualties and the danger of total defeat.

I had hoped though that it would find other methods to protect Russia from further NATO aggression.

Cont. reading: The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Closure

Over the last week China released a flurry of papers and statements that are accusing the U.S. of hegemony while contrasting it with China's peace initiatives.

As 'western' media rarely communicate what the Chinese say I find it necessary to give the Chinese standpoint some extended space.

Larry Johnson sets the stage by musing about the deterioration of U.S. China relations:

When the United States chose to shoot down the Chinese balloon (Beijing insists it was a weather balloon, the U.S. claims it was a spy platform) without contacting the Chinese Government, the Chinese initially expressed their outrage by refusing to accept a phone call from U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin. Austin continues to ask for a telephone conversation between the defense ministers of the two countries to discuss the situation around the weather balloon, but Beijing refuses to do so.

The Chinese then vowed to retaliate, but did not initially spell out what those countermeasures would entail. Then, last Thursday, Beijing announced sanctions and fines against two key American defense companies due to their participation in arms sales to Taiwan: Lockheed Martin Corp. and a subsidiary of Raytheon Technologies Corp.

The Biden Administration had a choice — take steps to try to repair relations with China or double down on antagonizing Beijing. Joe Biden and his feckless team, who have a knack for doing the wrong thing, opted to poke the Chinese in the eye. This week, the U.S. Department of Defense and Department of State, claimed they had intelligence that China was preparing to give Russia military aid and warned China in the strongest terms not to do so.

Talk about hypocrisy. The United States is free to supply Ukraine with billions in weapons and equipment but declares itself the sole arbiter to decide who China can support with military aid. Beijing was not amused …

The U.S. 'intelligence' claim came immediately after China's foreign policy big wig Wang Yi (Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs) hinted in Munich that China would propose a peace plan for Ukraine:

Cont. reading: U.S. Hegemony – At War With China’s Global Security Initiative

February 23 2022 was a holiday in Russia, the Defender of the Fatherland Day. It is a annual memorial day for all the people who, over the centuries, have fought for Russia in its wars.

As usual Russia's president Vladimir Putin addressed veterans, Armed Forces personnel and the people of Russia:

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Comrade officers, veterans,

Please accept my warmest greetings on this holiday, Defender of the Fatherland Day, which is celebrated all over the country not only by tradition but also by right.

It embodies the feelings of respect our citizens feel for their noble defenders, our pride in all those who served and serve in the Army and the Navy, recognition of their heroic merits to the Fatherland to assert our national interests, sovereignty and independence.

Patriotism and the unity of our nation, the exploits of its devoted sons and daughters have always been the foundation of the martial history of our thousand-year-old country, its glory and victories. We are proud of the many generations of its defenders: the guards of Alexander Nevsky and Dmitry Donskoy, the warriors of Minin and Pozharsky and the heroes of Poltava and Borodino, Stalingrad and the unstoppable assault on Berlin, all those who brought glory to our Fatherland according to the great traditions of our ancestors.
…
We can see the difficult international situation and the threats posed by current challenges, such as the erosion of the arms control system and NATO’s military activities. And yet, Russia’s appeals to build a system of equal and indivisible security that would reliably defend all countries, remain unanswered.

Our country is always open to a direct and honest dialogue and ready to search for diplomatic solutions to the most complicated issues. But I want to repeat that Russia’s interests and the security of our people are an indisputable priority. …

Putin also laid a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier.

The only diplomacy involving Moscow that happened during the day was a call with the president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan:

Cont. reading: The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Wednesday, February 23, 2022

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News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

To provide a legal framework for Russian military support to Donetsk and Luhansk the Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed executive orders to recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lunhansk People's Republic as independent countries:

In this regard, I consider it necessary to take a long overdue decision and to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic.

I would like to ask the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation to support this decision and then ratify the Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance with both republics. These two documents will be prepared and signed shortly.

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 the Federal Assembly held an extraordinary session and did as Putin had ask:

In a session held on Tuesday, the Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, unanimously backed the deals, with 400 MPs voting in favor. Earlier that same day, the parliaments of the two regions simultaneously ratified the ‘Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with the Russian Federation.’

This was sufficient reason for the U.S. and EU to implement their long planned fireworks of sanctions against Russia:

The European Union agreed to new sanctions on Russia that will blacklist more politicians, lawmakers and officials, ban EU investors from trading in Russian state bonds, and target imports and exports with separatist entities.
…
Russia’s formal recognition of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine was an unacceptable breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty, Borrell said.

“This package of sanctions that has been approved by unanimity by the member states will hurt Russia, and it will hurt a lot,” Borrell told a news conference alongside France’s foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian at a meeting in Paris.

Separately, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told Reuters that further Russian aggression in Ukraine would result in more sanctions, in coordination with the United States.

The package of sanctions includes all members of the lower house of the Russian parliament who voted in favor of the recognition of the breakaway regions, freezing any assets they have in the EU and banning them from traveling to the bloc.

U.S. sanctions on Russia were imposed in a coordinated manner.

Germany halted the approval for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Cont. reading: The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Tuesday, February 22, 2022

The Washington Post provides another of those lame flattering portraits of the Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelinski:

A year in the trenches has hardened Ukraine’s president
Volodymyr Zelensky came into office thinking peace with Putin was possible. He now believes victory is the only answer.

The piece is contradicting itself in certain manners but it also provides new evidence that the U.S. had set out to sabotage the Minsk agreement.

The headline is of course wrong. Zelenski has not been in the trenches but continued his pampered life near a bunker in Kiev. It is not Zelenski's 'hardening' that prevents peace negotiations with Russia but the blockage of any negotiation attempts by the U.S. government.

But first a look at the contradiction:

Not long after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a year ago this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky found himself in a safe room beneath Kyiv’s government complex with the voice of the Belarusian president booming over the phone.

Alexander Lukashenko, one of the Kremlin’s key allies, was inviting a delegation of officials to Minsk to negotiate an end to the war that Russia had launched just three days earlier, according to Andriy Sybiha, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, who was in the room for the call.

Zelensky was incensed at the invitation to another negotiation — recalling talks over the conflict in Ukraine’s east, known as “Minsk 1” and “Minsk 2,” that took place in the Belarusian capital in 2014 and 2015 — in which Kyiv was forced to make concessions to the Kremlin under the threat of battlefield losses.

“There will be no Minsk,” Zelensky said, according to Sybiha. “There will be no Minsk 3.”

The claim is that Zelenski was rejecting negotiations. But that claim is false and contradicted by the following events. Many paragraphs later we learn:

Cont. reading: How The U.S. (And UK) Sabotaged Peace In Ukraine

Around noon of Monday, February 21 2022, the Donetsk News Agency reported of unprecedented artillery attacks on the Donbas republics:

The tensions along the line of contact in Donbass heightened over the last 24 hours, both DPR and LPR Missions to the JCCC report.

In the DPR, 730 explosions of Ukrainian projectiles were recorded, the enemy is using large caliber mortars and artillery cannons. A similar situation is obsereved in the LPR, where 674 explosions of Ukrainian shells were reported over 24 hours.

The Republics have suffered military and civilian casualties.

Key infrastructure objects have sustained damage. More than 1,000 customers are without power, a major ventilator was off in the Skochinskogo coal mine, prompting staff evacuation.

At around 18:50 local time the DNA reported that the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic had asked the president of Russia Vladimir Putin to recognize the republics as independent states:

"On behalf of our people we ask you to recognize the DPR as an independent, democratic, social state under the rule of law," the DPR Head Denis Pushilin said.

"I ask you to recognise the sovereignty and independence of the Lugansk People's Republic", the LPR Head Leonid Pasechnik said.

They both asked to consider the possibility of signing an agreement of friendship and cooperation between Russia and the LPR, including the cooperation in the sphere of defence.

Putin has a degree in law and is generally unwilling to bend or break it. The request by the Donbas republics are part of a process that will make a Russian intervention on their side legally consistent with the Charter of the United Nations and international law.

The Russian president held a Security Council meeting. It opened with his summary of previous events that had led to the situation:

Cont. reading: The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Monday, February 21, 2022

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

Putin's speech is currently ongoing. You can watch an English live translation on Rumble:

https://rumble.com/v2aay62-putin-delivers-address-to-federal-assembly.html

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

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Source: @KampfmitKette – bigger

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

It is somewhat disquieting how the events these days track those of a year ago.

In 2022 we saw a preparation of Russian and Ukrainian troops for a war, a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Belarus, an exercise of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces on February 19, a strong Putin speech on the 21st, followed the next day by legislative action. Then the solemn and very symbolic Defender of the Fatherland Day on February 23 with military action starting the next day.

The anniversary is following the same pattern. The mobilized troops have been prepared. Putin has again met Lukashenko. Yesterday there was another strategic nuclear exercise. Tomorrow at noon (Moscow time) Putin will hold a public address. On the 22nd the Duma will hold an extraordinary session. Then another wreath laying during the Defender of the Fatherland Day followed by what? We don't know. But something is definitely coming.

From AP's summary of Sunday, February 20, 2022:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, facing a sharp spike in violence in and around territory held by Russia-backed rebels and increasingly dire warnings that Russia plans to invade, on Saturday called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him and seek resolution to the crisis.
…
In new signs of fears that a war could start within days, Germany and Austria told their citizens to leave Ukraine. German air carrier Lufthansa canceled flights to the capital, Kyiv, and to Odessa, a Black Sea port that could be a key target in an invasion.

NATO’s liaison office in Kyiv said it was relocating staff to Brussels and to the western Ukraine city of Lviv.

CNN added:

Cont. reading: The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Sunday, February 20, 2022

U.S. President Joe Biden is in Kiev today to rescue his lunatic project of destroying Russia by proxy war. But there is no good way to do that.

A review of 'western' media shows that the inevitable outcome of the war is now recognized. The only still open alternatives are to risk a large nuclear war or to retreat from 'western' dreams of its permanent hegemony.

Few 'western' officials will admit that the war is lost, that  Russia has won in Ukraine. But it has. It had won the war when it successfully trapped the Ukrainian army into a war of attrition.

A the Russian commentator Sacha Rogers writes (in Russian, machine translation):

This war has already been won (moreover, what is most offensive for various "unrecognized geniuses", without their participation and contrary to their foolish ideas of how it should be won). It was won at the moment when, instead of a highly maneuverable war, our General Staff imposed a positional “standing” with an attrition war on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Strictly by the textbook: Attrition warfare is a military strategy consisting of belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material.

Ukraine has already lost two armies and it is begging for a third one. But the 'West' is unable to deliver it:

Cont. reading: Recognizing The War Is Lost The ‘West’ Seeks An Exit

From the Reuters summary of Saturday, February 19, 2022:

Russia's President Vladimir Putin was set to oversee exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces on Saturday as Western leaders gathered in Munich, fearful that he could order troops massed on Ukraine's border to invade at any time.

Russian-backed separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine declared a full military mobilisation, a day after ordering women and children to evacuate to Russia, citing the threat of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces. Kyiv flatly denied the accusation and Washington said it was part of Russia's plan to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine. read more

Multiple explosions could be heard on Saturday morning in the north of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a Reuters witness said.
…
Separatist authorities on Friday announced plans to evacuate around 700,000 people, citing fears of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces – an accusation Kyiv flatly denied.

Less than 7,000 people had been evacuated from Donetsk as of Saturday morning, the local emergencies ministry said. Russian news agencies said later 10,000 evacuees had arrived in Russia.
…
Hours after the evacuation announcement, a jeep exploded outside a rebel government building in the city of Donetsk and Russian news agencies said two explosions hit Luhansk, one of the main cities in Ukraine's breakaway People's Republic of Luhansk, and part of a gas pipeline in the area caught fire.

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was at the annual Munich Security Conference where he meet U.S. VP Kamala Harris, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and others. He also held a speech which included this obvious lie:

Cont. reading: The Buildup To War In Ukraine – Saturday, February 19, 2022