Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 24, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation

Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my piece that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.

I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.

While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.


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Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.

It is interesting that this was followed by additional government turmoil in Kiev as another senior advisor of president Zelensky, the deputy head of his office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, resigned. Additionally several deputy ministers and oblast governors were fired:

Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a "technical mistake" and claimed no money had changed hands.

The defence minister himself - Oleksii Reznikov - has been under scrutiny for the same reason.

A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:

  • Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
  • Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
  • And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson

I urge people to be careful with corruption allegations in Ukraine. These often come from the extralegal National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The bureau was setup in 2014, after the Maidan coup. It was created and controlled by the U.S. embassy. NABU was used in various power plays to remove people who the embassy disliked.

In 2020 the supreme court of Ukraine ruled that NABU was outside of the law and should not have the investigative powers it assumed. This came after NABU had investigated several supreme court judges in anti-corruption cases. That fight between two camps of power in Ukraine led to a constitutional crisis.

A year later Zelensky fired the leading supreme court judge who had written the opinion on NABU. The judge appealed the decision and the court took his side. The conflict remains unresolved. The judge fled to Austria where he is now threatened with arrest under a Ukrainian warrant.

There are many of such little reported power plays in Kiev with Zelensky moving more and more into a dictatorial role. Over time his position will become very lonely.

But in the east the battle continues and Ukraine keeps losing the war. The Telegram channel Intel Slava Z notes:

Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.

“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas"


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This confirms my previous observation:

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

There are still Pentagon officials who deny the real situation:

Russian forces took control of the city of Bakhmut almost a year ago after Moscow opened a phase of the war that focused on territories in the Donbas, the far eastern corner of Ukraine comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Recent successes by Ukrainian fighters in the Bakhmut area have prompted Moscow to send in reinforcements, said the senior U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said Ukrainian troops are presently in control of Bakhmut, though Moscow claimed this week that its forces have taken control of a nearby salt-mining town, Soledar.

“Ukraine forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut,” the U.S. military official said, adding the new Russian troops are being “rushed” to the battlefield “ill trained” and “ill equipped.”

To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?

Bakhmut has never been under the Russian forces control. This was the situation near Bakhmut 6 months ago. The Russian held territory is red.


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This is the current situation around Bakhmut. The city is nearly encircled. All major roads leading in and out are under Russian artillery control.


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It is a big meat grinder. The German intelligence service BND says that the Ukrainian forces lose hundreds of soldiers per day in that city alone. The Russian defense ministry does not report on Bakhmut as that is Wagner's territory. But it daily reports if additional hundreds of losses on the Ukrainian side.

In a useless attempt to stop the steady drain of Ukrainian forces the 'west' is moving additional weapons into Ukraine. The U.S. wants to unlock the transfer of tanks by other countries to Ukraine by delivering parts of its own tank reserves:

The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

The White House declined to comment.
...
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
...
Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.

U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Milley and Defense Secretary Austin have been against any tank delivery. They are afraid of the consequences of this steady mission creep. The Biden administration steadily blows through each of its own red lines. Biden had started out by declaring that the U.S. would only deliver defensive weapons. Then came HIMARS and other longer range weapons that hit targets in Russia. Delivering tanks was a red line. What will come next? Fighter planes that have no chance to defeat superior Russian air defenses?

They military are not alone in their fear. The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock:

The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.

Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose because losing in Ukraine will come with the loss of U.S. financial hegemony:

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
...
This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.
...
Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).

Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.

And escalating it is. With ever increasing speed.

Posted by b on January 24, 2023 at 17:05 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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CharlesLutherThanos @ 401

Come to think about it, the frigate is a nice decoy. The US subs track it, while the Russian quiet sub with the Poseidon or other nuclear-armed subs stay behind out of sight and sound :-)

It's a flagrant first strike weapon, and a decoy, and a flashing red alert all in one. If it's hit first then a USA first strike is imminent and RF strategic forces launch en masse. As a first strike its dozen nukes hitting USA soil, and probably targeted at Pentagon command and control, isn't trivial but the real power is the thousand MIRVs on land ICBMS and subs under the arctic that would follow.

Last year the Russians managed a breakthrough of the ice with three subs simultaneously, a very difficult maneuver and a first ever, and a bold message they can launch (if I got it right) 384 warheads all at once, unexpectedly and coordinated, from the arctic. Whatever USA ballistic defenses are in reality or imagined if even 10% of the Russian land and sub ICBMS got through then it's Vera Lynn singing "We'll Meet Again".

As such the Gorshkov has no tactical value and is a one way suicide mission, strategically it's trivial, so the way I see it it's the Russians swinging their dick around for the RoW to see they are not intimidated.

Besides that, I don't understand why even risk the Poseidons inside a Belgorod, why not just launch the Poseidons from a land base? My guess the Poseidon plus sub is an experimental, intermediate phase until fully autonomous underwater nuclear drones are perfected.

Can wait for the ocean to be full of those, from various countries big and small, each with its own deadman switch waiting to breakdown, go rogue like HAL, or join Skynet.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 10:07 utc | 401

They are absolutely hell-bent and fixated on Melitopol and the Crimean land bridge.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 9:49 utc | 406

They tried a bit of a test yesterday - Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing a strike in the direction of Melitopol and Berdyansk, but the Russian forces launched a preemptive strike - TASS

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 10:17 utc | 402

Scholtz (sp) the guy from Germany cucked out just 2 days after I praise him.
Now Leopard 2 and Abrams are coming to Ukraine.

I hope they all become smoking husks along with the German and US economy.

Posted by: Smith | Jan 25 2023 10:18 utc | 403

I am really curious what barfly‘s think about the scenario that the whole of western delivered tanks and gear collecting at the moment in Poland will be rather used as a occupation force in western Ukraine rather than a a force to confront the russian allied forces.

The Duran guys discussed that scenario yesterday. As well as former polish foreign secretary Sikorski hinted on the „fact“ that that has been a polish plan back in February. John Helmer talked about it as well and manny others.

Its obvious that polish historical sentiment is influencing their daily politics but what would be the consequences? NATO, EU? How would the ukranian nationals react? The german reluctant‘s to send tanks would be perfectly explained at least. How would RU react?

My opinion on it is: whatever increases the contradiction within NATO and EU is a positive development since there is absolutely no base for reasoning anymore. As the old saying goes: „if we can not force them to tell the truth we at least can force them to lie more obvious.“

Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 25 2023 10:22 utc | 404

Speaking of reasonable and intelligent people.

I read that the USA will be sending 30 to 50 Abrams tanks to Ukraine IN A YEAR!

A year FFS. From the USA that planned this proxy war from before 2014. The same USA that was horrifed a YEAR AGO when Russia took the bait, spat the biscuit and set off to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine.

What is it about 'demilitarisation' that the ridiculous USA Generals and 'think'tanks don't understand.

Even a boy scout would be prepared.

A YEAR AGO was when the USA or any intelligent life form would have commenced training Ukrainian soldiers and technicians and maintenance people on the operations and maintenance of Abrams tanks. One would think a smart military plans and predicts contingencies and sets pre-emptive steps well ahead.

But not the USA military. They have no contingency plan for (just in case) the day the Russian army destroys ALL of Ukrain's and europe's old stored tanks. That day has arrived and all the USA military can do is wind up its trolls to sing the praises of the USA and denigrate Russia and con Germany one more time. The German elites have no shame. Likewise the Poleland elites.

Abrams tanks on Ukraine soil in ONE YEAR from now :/

I guess the Russian army will accept them and will put a couple on a pedestal next to the leopards they are soon to install and invite global leaders to a party to explain how smart and trustworthy are those slick USA diplomats and generals.

The USA elite sure know how to dig their own graves.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 10:30 utc | 405

I don't understand why even risk the Poseidons inside a Belgorod, why not just launch the Poseidons from a land base?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 10:07 utc | 408

Poseidon can park on the seabed and wait "forever". When US will place nukes in Poland, Baltics and Fin/Swe, a batch of Poseidons will be parked around US and UK. There is no other way.

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 10:31 utc | 406

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 3:19 utc | 293
And Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov on submarine B-59 made a conscience call.
We can’t expect one guy to save the world again.

Well, the second one was Col.(?) Petrov. Seems to be a Russian habit.

Posted by: TomD | Jan 25 2023 10:31 utc | 407

unimperator @ 406

They are absolutely hell-bent and fixated on Melitopol and the Crimean land bridge. Tunnel vision maybe?

Hell-bent and doom bound. But, what other military tactical or strategic option do they have? Let the RF attrite them? Split Ukraine in half right now after all the MSM bullshit? Scrap a 30 year in the making project? It's Melitopol or abject failure, recrimination, and the west turning on each other and tearing each other apart.

And, yes of course they also have the option for negotiations, an intelligent peace that respects Russia's security (and their own) or even a "peace with honor" skedaddle. But that will be after Melitopol fails.

Honestly, I really think the highly inadequate western leaders both military and political are living a wargasm, they just can't get enough of their perverted obsession - something very akin to autoerotic asphyxiation. All we can do is wait for their David Carradine moment to arrive.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 10:36 utc | 408

The same MSM that said tanks are dead in modern warfare are now cheering for Leopard 2 and Abrams 2 in Ukraine as if they will turn the tide!

Absolute clown world, the press needs to be sent to re-education camp to learn basic logic and thinking circuit.

Posted by: Smith | Jan 25 2023 10:41 utc | 409

re Andreas | Jan 25 2023 9:09 utc | 399

Who deceitfully blathered "this war is the umpteenth time the last 100 years for Russia to roll its tanks across the border to squash an uprising and establish control. aka the prime and foremost behaviour of an empire."

Total bullshit! Excluding the occasion when the USSR chased the nazis outta their nation and won ww2 obtaining the nazis surrender following the successful occupation of Berlin.
You will not be able to provide even 5 instances of the USSR Russian Federation rolling tanks its tanks "across the border to squash an uprising"

Amerika on the other hand has violently attacked and/or invaded many more than 50 nations since the end of ww2.
Why do you waste your time and ours with such blatant lies?

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jan 25 2023 10:41 utc | 410

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 17:56 utc | 20

Thank you, Karlof1, for so thoroughly refuting trolls who have this nasty habit of showing up immediately after B posts a new article.

These trolls mislead when they point at "contradictions" at the granular level ( "where are the armadas? where are the SU57s?" ), to distract new readers at this bar from noticing the looming defeat of the US regime at the geo-strategic level.

Haven't we noticed how Lavrov has been busily travelling the world to line up alliances for Russia and for the soon-coming multipolar world? Haven't we noticed how busy China's leadership has been doing the same? Haven't we noticed the No Limits strategic relationship between Russia and China (the geo-strategic double helix, per Larchmonter)?

The US regime is facing up to their looming loss of relevance by throwing everything they have before the Rest Of The World (Zone B, per The Saker) is ready to stand up and be counted.

Me? I have my stash of popcorn close at hand.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Jan 25 2023 10:46 utc | 411

Oops I just realised I have broken a personal rule about not engaging idiots. That's what comes when it's late & you enter a thread at post #390.
Sorry fellow barflies.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jan 25 2023 10:47 utc | 412

El Lissitzky #411

Its obvious that polish historical sentiment is influencing their daily politics but what would be the consequences?

Are you referring to this historical sentiment?

Or this?

It appears to me that the Poles foresee no consequences. Except that they can fabricate more myths and reasons to hate Russia and build nazism.

Perhaps they view all those tourists visiting Auschwitz/Birkenau, Belsen, Sobibor, Treblinka etc as a cash cow and are at this very moment facilitating similar outrages such as CBW facilities (replacing those Ukrainian closed CBW facilities). Then after the war they can shapeshift the responsibility to Ukraine (Bandera etc,...) and open all their lovely exhibits to tourists. Its a service economy that contributes to GDP ya know.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 10:49 utc | 413

I am really curious what barfly‘s think about the scenario that the whole of western delivered tanks and gear collecting at the moment in Poland will be rather used as a occupation force in western Ukraine rather than a a force to confront the russian allied forces.
Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 25 2023 10:22 utc | 411

Duda probably thinks that way, he runs on Zely's stash and dreams to be the next kamikaze country. And Maia from Moldova was activated too, said she wants to join nato

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 10:55 utc | 414

Debsisdead #419

No need to aplogise. There are times when one should take cat o' ninetails out for exercise. I weakened on this thread too. I saw it as an opportunity to simply set out a few points to refute the BS for all those silent ones who observe our scribbles. Have a drink on me brother.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 10:56 utc | 415

RT claimed that UAF attempted a counter-attack near Ugledar. Supposedly with M-113s, which were forced to fall back under artillery fire. During their offensive, also they used M-777 howitzers to support it, but they were discovered relatively quickly and hit with drones.

https://www.rt.com/russia/570421-ukrainian-troops-heavy-casualties/

Assuming that is true, they have then retreated from frontal trenches to Ugledar itself, which is more mined and fortified. So the advance will probably be very slow and methodical.

Our troops continue the offensive on Ugledar - battalion commander of "Vostok" Khodakovsky
▪️The pace of our progress by the evening decreased. The enemy pulled up reserves and increased resistance, showing the most active units.
▪️From dawn to the present, our artillery has been suppressing them, the infantry is regrouping.
▪️Our losses are significantly lower than the first day of the offensive on Pavlovka brought, but there are no pronounced results yet.
▪️ In some areas, the enemy was driven out from the first line, but retreated "beyond the fortress walls" of the mine communications almost within the boundaries of Ugledar. There is hard work ahead."

https://t.me/sitreports/3749

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 10:59 utc | 416

@ LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 10:07 utc | 408

Dark Star AI bomb, freshly instructed in epistemology, to bombardier: "You are false data."

Posted by: John Kennard | Jan 25 2023 11:10 utc | 417

A YEAR AGO was when the USA or any intelligent life form would have commenced training Ukrainian soldiers and technicians and maintenance people on the operations and maintenance of Abrams tanks. One would think a smart military plans and predicts contingencies and sets pre-emptive steps well ahead.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 10:30 utc | 412

the official opening of the Abrams Tank Training Academy in the Republic of Poland, Aug. 10. 2022.

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 25 2023 11:16 utc | 418

If it isn't tanks its artillery shells!

Production of 155mm shells Badly needed by Kyev will rise to 90,000 per month in TWO YEARS.

Pentagon will increase production of artillery ammunition for Ukraine sixfold - New York Times.

The Pentagon seeks to increase artillery shell production by 500 percent over two years, bringing production of conventional artillery shells to levels not seen since the Korean War, as it invests billions of dollars to make up for shortfalls caused by the war in Ukraine and to build reserves for future conflicts.

The publication writes that the effort will include expanding factories, bringing in new manufacturers and is part of "the most aggressive effort to modernise the US defence industrial base in nearly 40 years".

USA solid planning. The pentagon should change its name to the unigon - one brain cell only is quivering mightily.

This is the country that conspired, inveigled, conned, Ukraine to start a war with Russia and it is out of ammo and cannot even produce enough TODAY to mach the consumption rate. And it has been scheming this nasty little war since at least 2014. Joe Biden was in charge of Ukraine appointed by Obama as some sort of viceroy. And this grifter is president today. The USA elite couldn't fart and chew gum at the same time and we have to endure its trolls bleating in our bar.

Can you imagine the conversations Lavrov is having with all those foreign diplomats regarding where their future lies and how to chose? Let alone what Chinese leaders and planners are thinking.

I might need some strong drink ;))

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 11:18 utc | 419

The USA and its weasel words strike again:

European and US tanks will not arrive in Ukraine soon - NATO will not deliver more than 350 tanks in total, and they are not expected to arrive at all in the coming months

NATO wants to deliver Leopard tanks before Russia's alleged offensive in Ukraine. According to Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn, the alliance intends to provide a total of 300 Leopards of the second modification. In Europe, according to him, there are two thousand of them, but according to Welt, there are just over 2,200 modifications in total available to the bloc's countries.

At the same time, delivery of heavy equipment is not a quick thing. It includes logistics and mothballing, and repair. For example, the defense concern Rheinmetall has pointed out that now Germany can send to Ukraine only 29 Leopards, which will reach the battlefield only in April-May. A further 88 vehicles are planned to be "made available" and 22 to be delivered at the end of the year, and it is not known whether the next delivery will not be disrupted. It is worth keeping in mind that the FRG currently has in service a total of 212 units of the second modification. And this example is only one of a few, given that Poland wants to be compensated for the tanks it will deliver to Ukraine.

In addition, today, according to Western media reports, US President Joe Biden will also announce the transfer of Abrams tanks, which are also in Poland, to the Kiev regime. However, they will not be many - only 30-50 tanks out of the 700 units of all the equipment that was transferred to the territory of the state bordering Ukraine in December, and it will be sent no earlier than in a year. Thus, in total, only a tiny fraction of the equipment, which remains at NATO's disposal, may reach Ukraine. And it will not happen overnight.

I smell a deceit and a cop out and no wonder they are preparing Zaluzhny for President.

So maybe Zal is more capable of acting out the capitulation scene.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 11:29 utc | 420

LightYearsFromHome @ 408

TDark Star AI bomb, freshly instructed in epistemology, to bombardier: "You are false data."
T

I just googled it, I saw that film decades ago, I barely remember it. Current Hollywood sci-fi doesn't inspire me much, so a good thing to dl and watch again, thanks. Two other faves from the era, Silent Running (1972) and Android (1982). One good modern one is Moon (2009).

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 11:29 utc | 421

CharlesLutherThanos - Thanks for the references.

I had a brain fart and I keep getting Kinzhal and Zircon mixed up plus misspelling Kalibr. I am getting old(er). My point is really the US is faced with a potential barrage of missiles coming for which there is no known US defense.

Insanity is to poke a bear and keep moving into the bear yelling all the time after it is thoroughly mad and then blame it for being there in the first place while you lay dying.

I think we have finally picked a fight we truly will lose in a big way. My gut feeling though based on recent events in Ukraine is the Zelensky elite are going to cut and run off with the money. The US leadership is closer to being a Mafioso-run organization and won't take lightly to this. Meanwhile, all the air will be let out of the balloon and everyone (except maybe the US) will be wondering what happened and why were they there in the first place. This is always the after-effect of a good PSYOP. Most people can't explain why we did Gulf War I for the same reason (or Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Grenada, Panama, etc.). The Germans couldn't understand what happened with the Nazis either. It all seemed like a good idea at the time which is why propaganda works so well.

Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Jan 25 2023 11:30 utc | 422

@190

Yes that ship will be followed closely by subs which are followed closely by other subs in an endless chain across the oceans. However what would be the chances of responding, instantly, to an attack be? Some? None? If you were that ship.

Posted by: Inki | Jan 25 2023 11:31 utc | 423

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 10:07 utc | 408

There was a science-fiction story I read set in the Antarctic where autonomous subs were lurking. I forget the plot but it had something to do with a guy being sent out in another mini-sub to somehow connect to a particularly dangerous sub which was operating on its own and he had to somehow disarm it. Very clautrophobix story.

Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 25 2023 10:22 utc | 411

I listened to that Duran discussion tonight. The guys made a decent "connect-the-dots" case, but like all such it could just be that the "dots" are purely coincidental. OTOH, clearly the neocons would like such a scenario, so I think we can assume some such operation is being planned, if only as a contingency if not an operational plan.

As I've mentioned before, this is one reason Russia is moving relatively slowly. They are trying to "manage" the NATO response so NATO doesn't do something stupid and cause WWIII. The Russians recognize, as Martyanov says, that the West is being run by clueless imbeciles who don't understand what the consequences are of going too far against Russia.

- RSH

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 11:33 utc | 424

Ukrainian troops are preparing a counteroffensive in the Zaporozhye direction, an accumulation of up to 40 thousand people is recorded - Governor of the region Yehvan Balitsky

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 11:34 utc | 425

« Julian Macfarlane lives alone with two cats ».

I’d say : Two cats live together with a single human pet.

Posted by: Leuk | Jan 25 2023 11:40 utc | 426

Inki @ 430

Yes that ship will be followed closely by subs which are followed closely by other subs in an endless chain across the oceans. However what would be the chances of responding, instantly, to an attack be? Some? None? If you were that ship.

Odds are none, that's why it's a conspicuous first strike weapon, and should the worse ever happen it's a kamikaze trip, captain and crew know that, as does everyone who is sane in the nuclear forces. Sane is the key word, sanity has broad latitudes.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 11:40 utc | 427

Posted by: Inki | Jan 25 2023 11:31 utc | 430

Not being a subnmariner, I have no idea. Ask Martyanov, naval warfare is his bailiwick. Keep in mind the frigate has serious AD as well as offensive missiles. Combine that with serious sensors, plus surveillance by the subs around it, and quite possibly they'll see an attack coming before it's launched, based on the positioning of the enemy subs.

Reminds me of the movie "The Bedford Incident", which is precisely this sort of thing. In that movie, a US destroyer is tracking a Russian sub, intent on forcing it to the surface in a game of points. Unfortunately, an idiot on the sub accidentally launches an ASROC at the sub. The sub's commander, seeing the launch, launches his torpedos at the destroyer - and we're off to the races.

It was a very good, tense movie, well-acted by Richard Widmark and Sidney Poitier. Worth watching given the current circumstances.

The Bedford Incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bedford_Incident

- RSH

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 11:42 utc | 428

@ Debsisdead | Jan 25 2023 10:41 utc | 417

Nice “compare and contrast”. Thanks.

Posted by: Natokraine | Jan 25 2023 11:43 utc | 429

Opport Knock, Knock, Knocks @203

Firstly, I really need to ask, since you are so conversant with Yiddischer pilpul, honestly now, do you happen to have a dog in that fight, in league with your enamorate?

So fess up. Are you "chosen"?

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 2:54 utc | 282

No I am of Olde English/Scottish descent, from long before the chosen ones arrived. I have simply enjoyed the works of Mel Brookes, Rodney Dangerfield, Larry David, Woody Allen, Don Rickles...

https://www.ranker.com/list/list-of-famous-jewish-comedians/famous-jews

Zelensky is still missing from the list.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 25 2023 11:53 utc | 430

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 25 2023 2:03 utc | 261

As you say there is not much written directly on the subject.

Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety by Eric Schlosser
The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy by David Hoffman
Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself--While the Rest of Us Die by Garrett M. Graff
The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB by Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin
The President's Book of Secrets: The Untold Story of Intelligence Briefings to America's Presidents by David Priess

Raven Rock is a easy read. The Sword and the Shield touches upon the subject from the brief period that the KGB archives were open to Westerns in the very early 1900’s and from a KGB officer was responsible for a section of them. The Presidents Book of Secrets touches on the subject also.

In the US a lot of the above can be found in a library. The list of sources in the books is a place to expand the search.

In addition to the books, there is a lot of peripheral stuff on the Internet. You can start searching for things you find in the books to expand on what is covered. You can find lots of ‘think tank’ papers around the subject. Particularly from the Arms Control point of view.

For example, search for “depressed trajectory slbm”. You sometimes have to hunt around for the paper itself as there are paywalls on the first link to some of them.
The above search will turn up this: https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs03gronlund.pdf

After reading the above paper, from a nuclear perspective, hypersonic weapons don’t add much.

Also note, that I think in “The Presidents Book of Secrets” it mentions that President Kennedy was told the Soviets likely had small nuclear weapon in their US Embassy, in Washington DC. They were alleged to have smuggled it in, in parts, via diplomatic freight.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 11:56 utc | 431

Hah,

were open to Westerns in the very early 1900’s

make that

were open to Westerns in the very early 1990’s

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 11:57 utc | 432

from a nuclear perspective, hypersonic weapons don’t add much.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 11:56 utc | 438

When you can't make them, they're not useful. It's simple logic

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 12:01 utc | 433

Ukraine working on agreements with EU countries to deport Ukrainian men of conscription age back to Ukraine.

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 12:03 utc | 434


Ukraine working on agreements with EU countries to deport Ukrainian men of conscription age back to Ukraine.

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 12:03 utc | 431

Are they going to deport them by rail to centers located in Poland?

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 25 2023 12:21 utc | 435

If the statements about the tanks being ready in a year aren't outright lies, it as I said - calibrated to 'arrive' precisely too late to be worth sending when the moment to deliver them comes.

I still posit that at this point the political goals are picking the bones of Germany and that the war in the east has been all but abandoned.

Now whether NATO is inclined to construct an occupation zone in west Ukraine and use it as an 'independent state', i. e. launchpad for attacks on Russia, that I don't know at the moment but I suspect its far from a decided thing in thr circles of power either way at the moment.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 25 2023 12:23 utc | 436

⚡️🇷🇺卐🇩🇪 We are Back! #Germany enters the War⚡️

🔹 #Germany announced that it will send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to #Ukraine;

🔹 Berlin will allow other countries to re-export tanks to #Ukraine, the German government said.


https://t.me/sitreports/3755

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 12:34 utc | 437

uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 10:30 utc | 402
Simple response. This sloSMO is *not* the war USNATO planned on fighting.
Yes, they poked and poked until they got a Russian response.
Remember…. They had the Sanctions From Hell all prepared, ready to roll.
Remember. Joe crowing days later: the ruble is now rubble.
Remember. They stole $300b of Russian foreign reserves.
The reason they don’t have Abrams or whatever ready to roll is because Russia is supposed to be either defeated-dead or catastrophically bleeding out by now.
The Sanctions from Hell were never supposed to boomerang.
The Sanctions from Hell were never supposed to require 10 “packages” to try and find the vulnerability in Russia’s economy.
The Sanctions from Hell were not supposed to be a catalyst for the Rest of the World to start trading in rubles, yuan or a whatever local currency.
Yes. USNATO planned a war with Russia.
But this is not that war.
Russia has “tar-baby” taunted them into a Land War.
What’s the first paragraph of the first chapter on page 1 of the War Manual.
NEVER FIGHT A LAND WAR WITH RUSSIA (in Russia).
Oops.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 12:38 utc | 438

from a nuclear perspective, hypersonic weapons don’t add much.
Bill Smith @ 438

When you can't make them, they're not useful. It's simple logic
rk @ 432

For the moment current AD is inadequate enough that it can still be overwhelmed with MIRVS and why the 1960-70s technology Minutemen and older Russian ICBMs are still in their silos, in as much with current AD the hypersonics make little difference and can be dismissed. But, the outlook is that modern technology will improve quickly and so much so that soon AD will be impossible to overwhelm. The MIRVs were the strategic system for the last 50 years the hypersonics are for the next 50. Right now we are in the transition phase.

Supposedly the latest Russian ICBMs rockets also have a much faster lift off speed. That's why USA missiles in the ex-Warsaw pact countries are an unacceptable strategic threat, a true game changer. They are close enough to shoot down Russian ICBMs right after lift off something that was impossible when the USSR was in place. Faster big rockets, and hypersonics launched from planes (air platforms) coastal ships, arctic subs, and the Poseidon are the response. USA gets close in, Russia must get close in.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 12:38 utc | 439

But the result of our discussion yesterday and today was and is that the battlefield there is not suitable for Leoopard and Abrams. No air superiority, no integration, no infrastructure for them. So what? If that is true it can only be a political manoevre or an economic one.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 25 2023 12:39 utc | 440

🇩🇪🇺🇦🇷🇺 Leopard 2 tanks can be put into operation in Ukraine in about three months, — German Defense Minister Pistorius

First, the exercises will be held, and then the tanks will be sent to Kiev, he told reporters.


https://t.me/azmilitary11/34845

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 12:44 utc | 441

🇩🇪🇺🇦🇷🇺"Berlin will adhere to the principle that escalation between Russia and NATO should be avoided"-US hostage Olaf Scholz after the decision to supply "Leopards" to Kiev

🇩🇪🪖🇺🇦🇷🇺"Training of Ukrainian soldiers to work on German Leopard 2 tanks may begin in late January-early February" - Bundeswehr


https://t.me/azmilitary11/34848

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 12:52 utc | 442

@ Posted by: Passerby | Jan 25 2023 10:07 utc | 407

Country 404 sure is asking for a lot of clunky poorly-made USSA war toys!

F/A-18 is Well known for engine fires. The TBO hours do not exceed 700 engine running hours. Cheaply-made Yankee jet engines are trash. And no stone shields fitted on the intake side. Limits the aircraft to paved runways.

The committee created thin side and roof armor. Means any Soviet A-T weapon created since 1943. Would have zero problems. The end results the Leon 2 turret flies higher and faster than an ordinary T-64B modified.
The Leon 2 can't run away from the 152mm Krasnopol! KA-52 Alligator comes equipped with 12 fire and forget at 8 kilometers " 9K121 Vikhr". A one shot one kill A-T missile!

The mobile metal coffin Leon 2 is a dead easy-to-kill target. Estimated maximum time to live on the harsh eastern front Estimated death in a battle from first sight(drone) to complete destruction. Is between 3 minutes up to and not exceeding thirty minutes.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jan 25 2023 12:53 utc | 443

Posted by: Boo | Jan 25 2023 12:23 utc | 433

It's hard to say, but in practice most of those tanks, and Patriots and other stuff will pile up mostly in western Ukraine. They will have a platform to continue a war from there. General Milley still says they can make offensive to Crimea, but if you look at the last couple of days, Ukraine tried to launch boats across Dneper in Nova Kakohvka and failed.

But depending on what fixed structures Nato actually sets up in western Ukraine, Russia will start demolishing them one by one, even using Kinzhals or zircons. Like the one large mercenary camp in first month of the war, Nato didn't see it coming until it was already demolished.

This really an industrial and logistics war. I suspect there will be massive buildups in western Ukraine from Nato, and massive buildups in the east by Russia. Russia can decide to hit Nato buildup from Belarus if they want. In practice, they could hit them from much further away.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 12:56 utc | 444

@ Vikichka | Jan 25 2023 12:21 utc | 432
Good idea!

@Boo | Jan 25 2023 12:23 utc | 433
I think the tank charade will last until 200-300 tanks are sent and then airplane charade. EU has to buy f16 and f35, don't they?

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 12:57 utc | 445

F35 is useless, only vassals of the US buy it because they are forced to do so.

In any case, the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft is so good, that Turkey bought it against the wishes of the US. Even Israel wants the S-400, but the US does not allow them to have it. India also has chosen the S-400. In other words, the whole world wants the S-400.

The US can only has air dominance when it fights insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Jan 25 2023 13:02 utc | 446

Seems like 350-400 tanks which Nato plans to send won't arrive for even several coming months. That pretty much means Donbass will be finished in coming months with isolated holdouts here and there.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 13:07 utc | 447

Hausmeister @ 437

No air superiority, no integration, no infrastructure for them. So what? If that is true it can only be a political manoevre or an economic one.

Or a political and economic maneuver together with a rushed attempt to pin the Russian advance at Bakhmut but no further, and if necessary try to reverse Zaporizhzhia.

After stopping the hemorrhage maybe they are preparing the theater, tanks and APCs and logistics in theater first, then their NATO crews arrive, IOW air superiority, integration, and infrastructure work arounds are in the planning and soon to come.

This war on the USA and EU public is a Big Con, they are pulling it off by incrementalism.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 13:14 utc | 448

unimperator @ 444

Seems like 350-400 tanks which Nato plans to send won't arrive for even several coming months.

Unless they are lying, dagnabbit, that's how militaries operate, they lie about size, quantity and location of troops and machines, tank fiesta is psyops. Everything in the msm and social media is bs or speculation. Only NATO and hopefully RF intelligence know how many MBT, APCs, support, and maybe NATO crews are arriving and when.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 13:23 utc | 449

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 2:54 utc | 282

Firstly, I really need to ask, since you are so conversant with Yiddischer pilpul, honestly now, do you happen to have a dog in that fight, in league with your enamorate?

So fess up. Are you "chosen"?


Are you really asking for barflies' Ariernachweise? WTF?


Posted by: Moses | Jan 25 2023 13:23 utc | 450

@436 LightYearsFromHome

"They are close enough to shoot down Russian ICBMs right after lift off"
do you have some citation or documentation?
thx

As for Hypers. vs. ICBMs discussion:

just an example, if I may:

A few excerpts from a relatively new document - I am omitting here the detailed arguments for the sake of message length. They are in the document. It´s not too long.

"Slowing the Hypersonic Arms Race - A Rational Approach to an Emerging Missile Technology" from May 2021 - Union of Concerned Scientists

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/slowing-hypersonic-arms-race

(see pages 6-8)

"FLIGHT SPEED AND WARHEAD DELIVERY TIME
Hypersonic weapons take longer to reach their targets
than comparable ballistic missiles, for both intercontinental
and theater-scale use. - In short, claims that hypersonic weapons can
compress warhead delivery times—often touted by defense
officials as a justification for rapid development of these systems—
are false."

"MANEUVERABILITY
Hypersonic weapons are more maneuverable than ballistic
missiles, but their maneuvering comes at the cost of
reduced speed and range.- In short, hypersonic weapons can maneuver for a longer
portion of their flight than can ballistic missiles. Still, even if
a need for this increased maneuverability were identified, it
remains limited and incurs steep penalties on other, already
inferior, performance parameters, such as flight speed."

"ACCURACY
Hypersonic weapons possess no intrinsic accuracy advantage
over advanced ballistic missiles. Hypersonic weapons (...) will also suffer damage
to their surfaces from aerodynamic heating, degrading their
ability to precisely control their flight trajectories. Finally,
they possess no advantage in terms of guidance, as both
hypersonic and ballistic missiles use similar guidance systems. Hypersonic weapons do have the ability to maneuver—
and thus course correct—for long portions of their flight,
whereas ballistic missiles with MaRVs can do so only for
the final minutes of flight. But this short period is more
than sufficient to execute the corrective maneuvers typically
needed. For example, testing of a modern Trident D5
submarine-launched ballistic missile equipped with a MaRV
demonstrated the ability of this vehicle to steer to within a
few meters of the location identified by its guidance system,
a feat on par with the best accuracy a hypersonic weapon
might achieve."


DETECTION, EARLY WARNING, AND TRACKING
Hypersonic weapons can be detected by existing spacebased
sensors during launch and throughout most of
glide. Over shorter ranges, such as those relevant for
missile defense, they can be detected and tracked by
ground-based radar. - Unlike ballistic missile reentry vehicles, which stay relatively
cool as they fly through outer space, hypersonic gliders
reach temperatures of thousands of degrees Celsius as they
fly through the atmosphere, consequently emitting intense
infrared light. Calculations show that the infrared light
emission from a typical hypersonic glider will be sufficiently
intense for detection by existing space-based sensors for
much of its flight through the atmosphere (Tracy and Wright
2020). Thus, detection of hypersonic weapons is unlikely to
pose a meaningful problem for advanced military powers.

EVASION OF MISSILE DEFENSES
Hypersonic weapons could bypass some missile defenses,
but this is not a new capability, as ballistic missiles could
do so as well. - In short, hypersonic weapons offer no
new capabilities against terminal phase defenses, and they
might actually be more vulnerable to interception by these
systems than are ballistic missile technologies.

A Rational Approach to Hypersonic Weapon
Development
Given the apparent misalignment between the justifications
provided for hypersonic weapon development and the actual
capabilities of these weapons (or lack thereof ), the United
States should carefully reconsider its investments in these
technologies. To date, the DOD has not articulated a clear
military role for hypersonic weapons, nor has it identified a
mission that could not be carried out using existing ballistic
missile technologies. In the past two decades alone, the
DOD’s general rationale for hypersonic weapon development
has shifted dramatically, from long-range use against nonstate
actors to theater use against rival nations. Meanwhile,
hypersonic technology and the potential capabilities of these
missiles remain largely unchanged, indicating a disconnect
between hypersonic technology and strategy. Indeed, one
in-depth analysis aptly characterized these weapons as “a
missile in search of a mission”

Posted by: AG | Jan 25 2023 13:24 utc | 451

Tanks?
Tanks won´t change a thing for 404.
The depletion of stocks of tanks in Europe is only for making the vassals buying overexpensive, obsolete US-trash.

Non interacting but separately acting and decades old tanks will change nothing whatsoever in the big picture - even if one manages to get this scrap metal to the front.

Posted by: Goingo | Jan 25 2023 13:29 utc | 452

https://www.voanews.com/a/us-pushing-central-south-american-countries-to-give-ukraine-quick-military-boost-/6927591.html

I found a decent link about the Soviet/Russian weapons in Latin America that are so tantalizing for Pentagon. Another link mentioned 15 Soviet tanks upgraded in Israel in the stock of Uruguay military, and the current government is rightists. Leftist governments, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico will surely refuse any proposals, I am not sure about other countries like Peru and Argentina (what is going on NOW in Argentina? I did not follow).

More right-wing government can refuse for a simple reason that they perceive threats that require to have weapons. Imagine this scenario: you rule Ecuador, popularity is so-so, protests can flare up like in the adjacent Peru, and you give up all your heavy weapons to Ukraine. Then the protests in question flare up, and the (currently) leftist Colombia makes short and easy humanitarian intervention. Paranoia? Perhaps, but not impossible, and precisely the reason why those weapons were accumulated over the years.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 25 2023 13:30 utc | 453

Interim result then: this whole tank thing for now is just political theatre. If realized later it can make only sense when NATO goes „all in“, it cannot be left to the Ukrainians. Especially not getting the air dominance and building up the infrastructure.
And all this means: if they really start the tank thing now they intend such a huge escalation for later. Or it would be an extreme expensive bluff?

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 25 2023 13:34 utc | 454

I do think the russians would prefer all the tanks to be in action in eastern ukraine. They are easier to destroy there than in lvov and if too much of western equippment should arive they can burn down the dnjepr bridges whenever they want leaving all of it east of the dnjepr isolated.

As long as they can manage and destroy the influx of western weapons they can destroy it once too much of it arrives they can just close the gutter and destroy it.

So from this perspective there is no need for the russians to hurry into an offensive to conquer all land east of the dnjepr.

Posted by: Orgel | Jan 25 2023 13:49 utc | 455

@436 LightYearsFromHome

do you have some citation or documentation?

I don't remember where I read it it was several years ago first article I ever heard about hypersonics, I only read alt media so who knows, probaly a link off Naked Cap, but part and parcel of the hypersonic missles like the sarmat are much faster lift off times to orbit exactly to avoid attack in that phase.

Hausmeister @ 451

Interim result then: this whole tank thing for now is just political theatre...And all this means: if they really start the tank thing now they intend such a huge escalation for later. Or it would be an extreme expensive bluff?

Whatever the plan they are certainly not going to give it away. But we are here to figure it out, and if any bar crowd can do it it's this one.

I would not be surprised if tank fiesta was test marketed on focus groups in the EU and USA. "Folks, to start off with, in front of you is a card, can you read it over and check off which number of tanks reassures you in NATO's commitment to Ukraine without scaring you of a full scale war with Russia?"

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 13:52 utc | 456

OPERATION BARBOROSA 2.0 is about to commence.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 25 2023 13:54 utc | 457

Or it would be an extreme expensive bluff?
Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 25 2023 13:34 utc | 451

What is guaranteed 100% is that EU natoids will buy Abrams to replace the gifted German tanks, not another German tank. Remember when MSM loved Pfuzer and hated any other brand? It'll be exactly like that, the tank version.
And, like I've said above, the next step will be to send airplanes. With or without pilots, no one cares. Guaranteed sales for f16 and f35 once a number as low as 20-30 EU planes are lost and the industry to replace them is not there anymore.

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 13:55 utc | 458

Tank coalition: who and how many tanks plans to supply Ukraine.

Preliminary numbers:

🇩🇪 Germany will give us 14 Leopard models A6.
🇵🇱 Poland plans to donate 14 Leopards.
🇳🇱 The Netherlands wants to donate about 18 Leopards.
🇵🇹 Portugal will send 4 Leopard models A6 to Ukraine.
🇪🇸 Spain plans to transfer 53 Leopards.
🇸🇪 Sweden may send Strv 122 tanks to Ukraine (the exact number was not named).
🇳🇴 Norway plans to transfer 8 tanks.
🇫🇮 Finland also expressed its readiness to supply tanks, but did not disclose the number.

Total about 111 tanks. In addition, according to ABC News, at the Ramstein-8 meeting, 12 countries agreed to transfer 100 Leopards to Ukraine, that is, there may be more in total.


https://t.me/sitreports/3762

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 13:57 utc | 459

I think the USA is coming around to the idea of "let's fight over Ukraine" too.

So from a blitz of the Donbas republics we have moved to fighting over a series of proxy countries while the USA tries to figure out how to beat Russia and recover.

"Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."

Hate makes you stupid, no doubt.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 25 2023 13:57 utc | 460

Russia spokesmen ------
"These new tanks will burn like all the rest"
My comment... end of storey.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 25 2023 14:04 utc | 461

About hypersonic missiles Posted by: AG | Jan 25 2023 13:24 utc | 448

USA initiated arms race with two prongs:

A . ICBMs (and perhaps shorter range missiles) with accuracy and power sufficient to destroy opponent's ICBMs in their silos, but not as much power as to induce "nuclear winter" when applied en mass
B. Intercepting ICBMs of the opponent to "render them obsolete".

The goal was "first strike capability", destroy the bulk of the nuclear weapons of the opponent in one fell swoop, and mopping up the rest with interceptors. A few could get through, and with their megaton loads, few cities would be lost, say, Baltimore and Houston, but in the aftermath, USA would regain its monopoly of power, presumably, living happily ever after, perhaps collecting the tribute from the rest of the world is various ways, replacing regimes at will whenever needed, in short, bliss worthy of a short period of sacrifice.

Modified ICBM may be maneuverable in the final minutes by applying hypersonic gliders for the warheads, but mid-flight is a very regular ballistic trajectory with potential for interception. The initial research in this insane project had this aim. Thus hypersonic missiles were designed to evade that generation of weapons. They would need to be deployed much closer to the target, but without mid-flight vulnerability.

Of course, hypersonic missiles have vulnerabilities of their own, but intercepting maneuvering missile is much more complicated, the interceptor has to maneuver as well with the additional difficulty of predicting future position of the target.

In the full picture, there are also much slower ground hugging winged missiles and mini-weapons, micro-weapons etc., so interception requires multiple layers and multiple development programs. That creates an arm race that is enormously expensive, ESPECIALLY for countries where cost padding was most advanced. Continental scale multi-layer defense could have a fantastic cost. A system like Patriot or SS-400 costs a few billions and to defend USA you would need 30? But then you need another layer for hypersonics, another for winged missiles etc, each obsolete when the opponent implements countermeasures.

In short, going back to arms control would redirect huge resources toward other goals, tax cuts for the wealthy, universal health care, transition to carbon neutral civilization, whatever. Perhaps arms race spares our societies of hellish quarrels: how the excess should be used, and creates a more harmonious society? This could be the true goal.


Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 25 2023 14:08 utc | 462

Latin American weapons to Ukraine?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 25 2023 13:30 utc | 450

Thank you for the post and link Piotr. The article has some good info so I'm putting it down again below. I agree with your comments and guesses. Many Latin American countries are accelerating their long term plans which are leaning 100% toward China, followed by Russia, also Iran (mostly Venezuela and Nicaragua). The U.S. military is trying to flex its muscle in the form of CentCom South commander Laura Richardson is the latest face of the Imperial monster in Latin America-- a real piece of work-- summed up the U.S. push:
“We are working with the countries that have the Russian equipment to either donate it or switch it out for United States equipment,” General Laura Richardson, the commander of U.S. Southern Command, told a virtual audience Thursday during an appearance at the Atlantic Council in Washington."

Latin American militaries have large contingents of right wing haters in their ranks, most of whom are bonded to the U.S. through their School of the Americas torture training. Peru will probably send their stuff if they can get an immediate swap since they need it to kill the Indigenous, Uruguay likely, Argentina might cave, maybe even Brazil a little but that doesn't mean the current leaders (Lula and Argentina's Fernandez) support the move. Both are 100% pro BRICS and working actively to build non-US financial and trade mechanisms which synch with the good guys. Mexico's AMLO will resist. "Some of these countries, though, have previously balked at sending weapons to Ukraine, notably Mexico, with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last June calling the notion “immoral.”

https://www.voanews.com/a/us-pushing-central-south-american-countries-to-give-ukraine-quick-military-boost-/6927591.html

Posted by: migueljose | Jan 25 2023 14:18 utc | 463

rk @ 455

What is guaranteed 100% is that EU natoids will buy Abrams to replace the gifted German tanks, not another German tank.

Without Russian gas I don't think the Germans will be working much heavy metal again, not competitively, and last I looked the west was still capitalist. Maybe through German efficiency they can at least win back the retro reproduction tin toy and Christmas ornaments market from China?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 14:28 utc | 464

Piotr Berman | Jan 25 2023 14:08 utc | 459

fixed defenses are easily overcome.

especially the "cost plus guaranteed profit" kind deployed without working that usa buys. the usa either cannot afford the tests or the test assets fail to launch....

for example the "kill vehicle" of the us' mid course system is mostly useless.

patriot is point defense, several batteries needed for each major area.

while aegis missile segment depends on launchers be3ingh in line of ballistic path.... if they get close!

s400 versus patriot: s400 defends larger area....

tracking ground hugging cruise missiles remains a weakness.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 25 2023 14:29 utc | 465

leopard and abrams both designed to nearly the same spec. 1970's nafo battle doctrine!

both greater than 60 tons

leopard less power in engine, less speed, smaller fuel tank

both large support tail! spare parts different....

the replay of kursk battle, view tiger tanks against t-34 in 2023 equipment, won't be ready for the 80th anniversary!

Posted by: paddy | Jan 25 2023 14:40 utc | 466

Told you so:
Melnyk - We need warships to protect the coast, we have a very long coastline. We will also need submarines to prevent the danger of a new attack from the sea. Kyiv also needs modern Western fighters Eurofighter and Tornado.

Give some "Eurofighter and Tornado", buy some f16! It's good deal!

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 14:45 utc | 467

@Piotr Berman 459
thx

also to
@LightYearsFromHome

of course this is all insane.

I am however collecting and researching expert info for letters to MPs or public discussions about nuclear threat in the hope some political movement will get off the ground once the war theater is tuning up.

One main point is how secure is the system against misunderstanding and cataclysmic effects that would make any public protest response impossible. Almost-incidents that have been ignored by governments in public so far.
"We got all under control"-rhetoric.

As of first-strike - I have encountered repeated public disbelief in US-military planning first strikes in connection to the 1980s Counterforce concept now updated, which I believe, your are also referring to and which every informed person knows is simple fact:

80% or even more of hardened silos in Russia to be taken out via "super-fuze" installed on the latest warheads since mondernisation plans of nuclear capabalities have been put in place.

thx for the further info. Have to look into those aspects and verify/falsify.

As with real politics in Ukraine on the ground, those puppets in Parliament in their majority know shit or are just muted - but they do vote on those issues.

Consequences they cannot trusted with.

Posted by: AG | Jan 25 2023 14:45 utc | 468

80% or even more of hardened silos in Russia to be taken out via "super-fuze" installed on the latest warheads since mondernisation plans of nuclear capabalities have been put in place.
Posted by: AG | Jan 25 2023 14:45 utc | 465

I give you $5, more than you make in a day.

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 14:49 utc | 469

"There was a science-fiction story I read set in the Antarctic where autonomous subs were lurking. I forget the plot but it had something to do with a guy being sent out in another mini-sub to somehow connect to a particularly dangerous sub which was operating on its own and he had to somehow disarm it. Very clautrophobix story."

If it's the novel I'm thinking of, it had two titles, either The Dragon in the Sea, or Under Pressure, and it was written by the author of Dune, Frank Herbert. IIRC it has similarities to Destination Void by him.

But imo, Herbert's most underrated novel is The Dosadi Experiment. It frequently seems relevant to what major upheaval is going on in the world. One could see parallels to how Ukraine has secretly been used by the major powers. Huh, lol, that would make Putin the Agent from the Bureau of Sabotage, Jorj X. McKie, intent on upsetting their applecart, and dirty little scheme.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dragon_in_the_Sea

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destination:_Void

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dosadi_Experiment

"Jorj McKie finds BuSab to be a natural outlet for his tendencies. But McKie's success as a BuSab agent is really the result of a formidable intelligence and an exquisite sensitivity to the traditions of other races combined with the ability to adapt to any circumstances."

Sounds like Putin, lol!

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 25 2023 14:50 utc | 470

Weird. People here on local socials are drooling over the fact that Ukraine and NATO are about to destroy Russia with modern tanks.

The amount of ignorance is staggering.

Posted by: WageSlave | Jan 25 2023 14:51 utc | 471

Netherlands considering providing F-16. Ukies demand their own navy too. We now have full retardness beginning.

Now that EUvassals have committed themselves to Ukraine to a such extent, China should be beginning massive lend-lease military and industrial supplies to Russia about right now (experts should answer whatever that could mean).

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 14:54 utc | 472

⚡️🗣 German Foreign Minister Baerbock openly ADMITS "NATO IS FIGHTING A WAR AGAINST RUSSIA"

We are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other, says Baerbock, as she call for unity amongst Western allies - reducing Zelensky to a pawn in West's proxy war against Moscow.

What's that about NATO not being party to the conflict, Jens?


https://t.me/IntelRepublic/12645

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 15:10 utc | 473

Where do you see the war in Ukraine going? Also where do you see the world in 5 years?

I will go first!

I see that mission creep has gone into no mans land and that direct war will start within the next 90 days. I don't see Russia using a Nuclear weapon unless the are directly attacked by NATO or Ukraine Army enters into Russia. The question is who attacks first Russia or NATO? I think Russia will directly attack NATO territory first. Not to say that it wasn't caused by a no fly zone or the strike on Russian cities by Ukraine. NATO is realizing that they are fast approaching a cross roads of getting directly involved or letting Ukraine lose.

Russia I think see's itself now as at war with NATO directly but currently by-proxy and fast approaching direct conflict. Under this thinking I feel that Russia will strike first, because if diplomacy is dead and war is inevitable then it's always best to strike first and hard. It will be a conventional strike designed to cripple the US and NATO fleets and bases.
Then they will then fall back and turtle up having built their defenses to force NATO to fight Russia at their borders and bleed their attacks. It could go tact-nuclear during this period with fear on both sides of escalation.

Also I expect China to start an embargo of Taiwan right before the attack.
IRAN is a question of another possible early flash point with US and Israel massive drills. This could be an actual strike by the US and Israel right before Iran has fielded the 2 dozen SU35's and S400?


In 5 years I see, if no Nuclear Armageddon is massive poverty in the west along with crime, riots, and oppression of the people along with possibly a very authoritarian government. The government will be very nationalistic and authoritarian.

The East will be struggling as well from the total split but will be moving in a positive direction unlike the US which I feel will be in massive decline.

Posted by: Peace | Jan 25 2023 15:16 utc | 474

@ MikeR 69

I don’t think that is green spray paint. I was informed that it is some manner of industrial dye, apparently a permanent effect that also happens to be quite toxic, which if true, makes it much nastier than simply green paint. Furthermore, I’ve seen video of random passersby verbally abusing green dyed victims publicly taped to poles in groups of four or five, some with there pants around their ankles, and spitting on them, punching, slapping and kicking them. Somehow western media, which also has access to the same internet, is able to studiously ignore this evidence as it is busy amplifying fabricated evidence produced by the UkroNazi security services

Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 25 2023 15:16 utc | 475

My advice to all of the US vassel states - - -
Look for the next off ramp, theirs a massive car crash right ahead on this highway.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 25 2023 15:18 utc | 476

Something that amuses me to no end is the initative for Mexico and Russia to eliminate visas and intensify trade agreements. This comes at a time when Mexico is taking the long overdue step of cracking down on illegal Americans. Trump accellerated this process, LOL. Mexico is beginning to require proof of residency, ie a valid visa for commerce. For more than 100 years Mexico has looked the other way in the interest of tourism, US Gov pressure, ect. It is a fact that some 80% of Americans living here are illegal. Many do not even have US passports. This is of course, unbridled arrogance and hubris. Now Mr. Putin is going to help Mexico out. And this right after the stupid show conference with Biden. Absolutely hilarious. IMO, this has taken the US by surprise so much that they havnt even been able to respond. I cant wait.

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Jan 25 2023 15:20 utc | 477

migueljose@ 460

Lula and Argentina's Fernandez) support the move. Both are 100% pro BRICS and working actively to build non-US financial and trade mechanisms which synch with the good guys. Mexico's AMLO will resist. “

Lula Just Became The First BRICS Leader To Publicly Condemn Russia’s Special Operation

In remarks that he made while in Buenos Aires on Monday, one of the literal founders of BRICS shockingly declared that “In the same way that I am against territorial occupation, as Russia did to Ukraine, I am against too much interference in the Venezuelan process.” Quite clearly, Lula was implying that Russia’s military efforts to restore the integrity of its national security red lines in Ukraine after NATO crossed them there are morally equivalent to the US’ unprovoked Hybrid War aggression against Venezuela…

https://korybko.substack.com/p/lula-just-became-the-first-brics
https://t.me/CIG_telegram/26896

I have faith in Lula he’s earned his cred, though I have been fooled by others. Lula’s hands are tied so it’s a give and take, juggling knives, kiss the Don’s ring while plotting his over throw.

This BRICs show will happen but it’s not opening in theaters everywhere any time soon despite what Pepe says. It will be slow, maybe better that way. Give global corporate capitalism time to re-evaluate their allegiance to the Empire, redirect their funding. Slow and easy, less rancor, death and misery.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 15:22 utc | 478

migueljose@ 460

Lula and Argentina's Fernandez) support the move. Both are 100% pro BRICS and working actively to build non-US financial and trade mechanisms which synch with the good guys. Mexico's AMLO will resist. “

Lula Just Became The First BRICS Leader To Publicly Condemn Russia’s Special Operation

In remarks that he made while in Buenos Aires on Monday, one of the literal founders of BRICS shockingly declared that “In the same way that I am against territorial occupation, as Russia did to Ukraine, I am against too much interference in the Venezuelan process.” Quite clearly, Lula was implying that Russia’s military efforts to restore the integrity of its national security red lines in Ukraine after NATO crossed them there are morally equivalent to the US’ unprovoked Hybrid War aggression against Venezuela… https://t.me/CIG_telegram/26896

I have faith in Lula he’s earned his cred, though I have been fooled by others. Lula’s hands are tied so it’s a give and take, juggling knives, kiss the Don’s ring while plotting his overthrow. The BRICs show will happen but it’s not opening in theaters everywhere any time soon. Maybe better that way, slow and easy, give global corporate capitalism time to reevaluate their allegiance to the Empire and redirect their funding.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 15:27 utc | 479

And this right here is what it will look like regarding the tanks ----

Blues Brothers 2000 crash-youtube

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 25 2023 15:34 utc | 480

Tank you b. ;)

Yet, Oh my Dog. What an absolute shitfest of a thread. Well fed, over-stuffed, bloated, trolls & apparently numerous (deleted) Nic hijacks & endless BS.

For those that start from the end of a thread or do not dare wade though 476 posts, as I did ... may one highly recommend the following posts:

Recent posts by Old Microbiologist over this & previous Ukraine thread. Use 'Search' function on MoA main page, top right.

Search term: by Old Microbiologist

Then select 'most recent'

Hermit, this thread, same process as above, ie Search term: by Hermit

Lastly, though never least: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 12:38 utc | 435

My 2c is up, am all outta change & in desperate need of a virtual shower after wading through the Augean Stables.

Peace Salaam Shalom

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 25 2023 15:51 utc | 481

oppert knocks @427

If you are telling the truth about your ethnic background, then how is it that you are so Talmudophilic?

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 15:55 utc | 482

User “Outraged” is too modest to recommend hos own writings, so I’ll do so herewith.

In addition to the users he identified, karlof1 is always enlightening, and there’s been some really good stuff about US-UKR biolabs from Tom_Q_Collins as well.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 25 2023 15:58 utc | 483

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 25 2023 14:50 utc | 467

The Dosadi Experiment is my favorite from Herbert, even above Dune. The book I'm thinking of is not Herbert's book, however, I'm pretty sure. I tried searching for it on Google, but I don't have enough parameters to find it.

- RSH

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 15:58 utc | 484

rk@430

The other side of your equation would be that if you possess hypersonics and use them specifically as kinetic; then you can send a very strong message WITHOUT having to resort to nukes. Its a form of escalation domination without pressing the doomsday button.

In this case, the U$$A is stuck between the deep blue sea and the devil...a slight modification of that old saw.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 16:01 utc | 485

@ LightYearsFromHome Post 475.

It's BRICS not BRICs

The 5 founding countries

Brazil Russia India China South Africa


See this BRICS information portal: https://www.infobrics.org


and now it's expanding " BRICS+ " as other countries join.


+ + + + +

Not just in time logistics. Germany pledges tanks in 3-4 months
Biden to send 31 M1 Abrams tanks. Later. who knows.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 25 2023 16:02 utc | 486

LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 15:27 utc | 475

Lavrov said that the BRICS currency will be discussed in August.
By then Russia has to liberate all territories, no one will want to deal with an occupied country, stuck in a forever war, with stupid politicians and generals as cause.

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 16:03 utc | 487

Moishe@447

Entschuldigen Mir, aber mein Verständnis aus Deutsch, nur drei Jahre im Amerikanischer "hoch schule" studieren hat. And that was 59-61 years ago.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 16:14 utc | 488

"Russia branded [Germany's] move a 'blatant provocation' and warned the new Nato [tank] supplies will 'burn like all the rest', while one raging Putin propagandist called for the German parliament to be destroyed in a nuclear strike." -- Daily Mail UK

If the weaselly little dweeb Olaf Scholz actually manages to provoke an all-out European war, he will merely confirm Hannah Arendt's observation about the banality of evil.

Posted by: Jim H | Jan 25 2023 16:16 utc | 489

@aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 2:38 utc | 276

At the beginning of 1941, the USSR had 961,000 trucks. This included the Scientific Automotive Tractor Institute (NATI) designed the GAZ-60 halftrack based on the GAZ-AA truck and ZIS-22 halftrack based on the ZIS-5 truck. These vehicles showed improved off-road mobility, but greater fuel consumption and lower speed than regular trucks. Research focused on all wheel drive trucks since that looked like a more promising project. Instead of halftracks the Soviet government developed fully tracked tractors. The Komsomolets tractor, accepted into service in 1939, was arguably more versatile than the Sd.Kfz.251 since it could be used to tow artillery, transport goods or infantry, or in the worst scenario as an ersatz tankette. It also served as a base for the ZIS-30 tank destroyer. After the catastrophic losses of 1941, the USSR still had 553,838 trucks remaining. In Moscow in 1941, there were no Lend-Lease trucks at all. By the end of 1942, after Stalingrad had already been surrounded, Lend-Ldddease trucks still comprised less than 5% of the inventory, and by the battle of Kursk they comprised less than 15% of the inventory. It was only as the USSR entered Germany that significant quantities of Lend Lease trucks were produced and delivered, so that by the end of the war, when Lend-Lease was abruptly terminated without notice by Truman, Lend-Lease trucks made up a good portion of available trucks.

1942 start LL 1400 Tot 554000
1942 end LL 33500 Tot 585000
1943 start LL 127900 Tot 630000
1944 start LL 257000 Tot 684000
1945 start LL 367200 Tot 752000

Note that this was still nearly a quarter of a million trucks less than the USSR had had as it entered the war, and that 5he USSR had continued to produce full track truck/tractors (which were used to draw land trains of wagons) at high levels throughout 5he war. As we are again seeing in the Ukraine, the USSR also made it its practice to build and repair railway lines to the front, enabling reliable delivery of overwhelming quantities of materiel to the front, while reducing the size and vulnerability of supply dumps and reducing reliance on trucks except for last mile deliveries.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 25 2023 16:23 utc | 490

⚡️🗣 Baerbock német külügyminiszter nyíltan ISMERTE: "A NATO HÁBORÚT VAD OROSZORSZÁG ELLEN"
Mi Oroszország ellen vívunk háborút, nem pedig egymás ellen – mondja Baerbock, miközben egységre szólítja fel a nyugati szövetségeseket – ezzel Zelenszkijt a nyugat Moszkva elleni proxyháborújának gyalogává redukálja.

Mi az, hogy a NATO nem részese a konfliktusnak, Jens?


https://t.me/IntelRepublic/12645
Írta: Down South | 2023. január 25. 15:10 utc | 470
https://twitter.com/i/status/1618224162669228032

Posted by: zolkas | Jan 25 2023 16:23 utc | 491

malenkov @479--

Thanks, you're too kind. After yesterday's long discussion about education during his meeting with members of the government, today is the Day of the Student Russian holiday that finds Putin touring the new high-tech area, the Innovative Scientific and Technological Center "Sparrow Hills," of venerable Lomonosov Moscow State University and talking with student faculty. Those interested in the state of education within Russia will want to read the interactions. Putin is very strong on education and the need to provide opportunities for everyone to have a chance to discover their potential. As I commented yesterday, there really isn't any equivalent to Russia's education program, its competitions and promotion anywhere in the West, although it's an asset any nation can have if it directs its attention and resources to such development. Yes, one could say Putin has weaponized education.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 25 2023 16:28 utc | 492

Gonzalo Lira produced a pretty decent video explaining the connections between Bakhmut (being the key battle of the war), Western tank package and the increasing leaks on the "dam" of UAF.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67inSOqk6iY

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 16:35 utc | 493

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock: "we are fighting a war against Russia"

Never trust a green.

After "Russian gas bad", prolonging the nuclear power plants and opening up a new brown coal extraction site (the most "un-green" form of energy generation), the green eco fascist tells it how it is: "we are fighting a war against Russia".

#DraftAnnalenaBaerbock

Posted by: xor | Jan 25 2023 16:36 utc | 494

Today finds Lavrov in Angola as he continues his tour of Africa. He held a presser with Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Angola Taro António where he provided a short statement summing up the contents of his discussions, but no Q&A session.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 25 2023 16:37 utc | 495

Mark2@458

Your comment about burning tanks reminds me of a book I read some 60 years ago: "The Tigers are Burning". The event was the Battle of the Kursk Salient in the summer of '43. Hitler and the Wehrmacht were very confident that their new "Wunderwaffen" would roll over the Russian defenses.

Subject was Herr Porsche's massively armored invention, the Konig-Tiger or in English, the King Tiger. In fact that rig was so heavily armored frontally, that there was no way a forward machine-gun could be included in the recipe. Russian intel via a spy in the German embassy in Tokyo, were not only fully aware of the details of the tank but also the approximate date of the incursion and the Wehrmachts full order of battle.

Russian intel discovered the flaw in the design of that Wunderwaffen. Actually there were two flaws, the initial one being that the Germans felt no need for infantry support. Those monsters would be on their own. Other flaw was the lack of anti-infantry capacity due to the lack of a forward machine-gun. So they pre-positioned deeply dug-in sappers, armed with nothing more than a ppsh submachine gun and a satchel charge.

Huge and unable to spin on a dime in order to crush those sappers, the King-Tigers, unsupported and one by one, got themselves torched via their lightly armored undercarriages by those satchel-charges flung from behind and beneath. All over the salient, the Tigers burned.

Lesson for today. Chances are that all those Western tanks have been deeply studied for any possible flaw. Lacking sufficient air superiority and likely to not be well integrated with their light armor and infantry; those Western tanks will be picked off one by one. History does not necessarily repeat itself on a lineal basis, rather spirals upwards and forwards.

Once again, those tracked invaders from the West will burn.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 16:38 utc | 496

Watching those tanks move forwaard from the air by drones should yield some clues about safe passageways through the minefields too.

Posted by: GT Stroller | Jan 25 2023 16:41 utc | 497

@ATBOTL | Jan 25 2023 3:27 utc | 289

Is ATBOL short for 'A Troll Bot Loser' or perhaps, 'At Bottle" signifying drunkenness. Either would seem appropriate.

On a point of order, Putin is the very popular president of Russia, a humanitarian and one of the planet's great statesmen. As with all Russians politicians and military of the last 350 years, Russia relies on the institutional military competence of the Russian General Staff for military advice, so military genius is not required.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 25 2023 16:44 utc | 498

MiguelJose@460

For sharing your inside perspective: Gracias.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 16:44 utc | 499

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 10:31 utc | 403

Poseidon can park on the seabed and wait "forever". When US will place nukes in Poland, Baltics and Fin/Swe, a batch of Poseidons will be parked around US and UK. There is no other way.

This appears to be the first sensible thing you've said in your history on this site.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 25 2023 16:47 utc | 500

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