Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 24, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation

Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my piece that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.

I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.

While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.


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Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.

It is interesting that this was followed by additional government turmoil in Kiev as another senior advisor of president Zelensky, the deputy head of his office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, resigned. Additionally several deputy ministers and oblast governors were fired:

Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a "technical mistake" and claimed no money had changed hands.

The defence minister himself - Oleksii Reznikov - has been under scrutiny for the same reason.

A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:

  • Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
  • Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
  • And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson

I urge people to be careful with corruption allegations in Ukraine. These often come from the extralegal National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The bureau was setup in 2014, after the Maidan coup. It was created and controlled by the U.S. embassy. NABU was used in various power plays to remove people who the embassy disliked.

In 2020 the supreme court of Ukraine ruled that NABU was outside of the law and should not have the investigative powers it assumed. This came after NABU had investigated several supreme court judges in anti-corruption cases. That fight between two camps of power in Ukraine led to a constitutional crisis.

A year later Zelensky fired the leading supreme court judge who had written the opinion on NABU. The judge appealed the decision and the court took his side. The conflict remains unresolved. The judge fled to Austria where he is now threatened with arrest under a Ukrainian warrant.

There are many of such little reported power plays in Kiev with Zelensky moving more and more into a dictatorial role. Over time his position will become very lonely.

But in the east the battle continues and Ukraine keeps losing the war. The Telegram channel Intel Slava Z notes:

Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.

“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas"


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This confirms my previous observation:

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

There are still Pentagon officials who deny the real situation:

Russian forces took control of the city of Bakhmut almost a year ago after Moscow opened a phase of the war that focused on territories in the Donbas, the far eastern corner of Ukraine comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Recent successes by Ukrainian fighters in the Bakhmut area have prompted Moscow to send in reinforcements, said the senior U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said Ukrainian troops are presently in control of Bakhmut, though Moscow claimed this week that its forces have taken control of a nearby salt-mining town, Soledar.

“Ukraine forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut,” the U.S. military official said, adding the new Russian troops are being “rushed” to the battlefield “ill trained” and “ill equipped.”

To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?

Bakhmut has never been under the Russian forces control. This was the situation near Bakhmut 6 months ago. The Russian held territory is red.


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This is the current situation around Bakhmut. The city is nearly encircled. All major roads leading in and out are under Russian artillery control.


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It is a big meat grinder. The German intelligence service BND says that the Ukrainian forces lose hundreds of soldiers per day in that city alone. The Russian defense ministry does not report on Bakhmut as that is Wagner's territory. But it daily reports if additional hundreds of losses on the Ukrainian side.

In a useless attempt to stop the steady drain of Ukrainian forces the 'west' is moving additional weapons into Ukraine. The U.S. wants to unlock the transfer of tanks by other countries to Ukraine by delivering parts of its own tank reserves:

The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

The White House declined to comment.
...
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
...
Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.

U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Milley and Defense Secretary Austin have been against any tank delivery. They are afraid of the consequences of this steady mission creep. The Biden administration steadily blows through each of its own red lines. Biden had started out by declaring that the U.S. would only deliver defensive weapons. Then came HIMARS and other longer range weapons that hit targets in Russia. Delivering tanks was a red line. What will come next? Fighter planes that have no chance to defeat superior Russian air defenses?

They military are not alone in their fear. The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock:

The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.

Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose because losing in Ukraine will come with the loss of U.S. financial hegemony:

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
...
This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.
...
Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).

Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.

And escalating it is. With ever increasing speed.

Posted by b on January 24, 2023 at 17:05 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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There's so much going on in camp Zelensky.
Was a coup being orchestrated,,?
How long before mass surrendes or withdrawals?

Posted by: jpc | Jan 24 2023 17:15 utc | 1

TCM showed On the Beach yesterday. Timely reminder, but will probably be ignored.

Posted by: Paul Spencer | Jan 24 2023 17:18 utc | 2

There was a push in Zaporizhzhia, but it was repelled quite easily by the Ukrainians. Seems the "Bakhmut meat grinder" failed to draw away enough AFU forces to conduct a successful offensive.

Ex-DPR Defence Minister Igor Girkin, of Siege of Slavyansk fame in 2014, notes the morale of Ukrainian troops is much higher than their Russian counterparts, as the latter have no idea what the aim of this so-called "SMO" even is, not to mention we have cases of mobilised being trained for artillery divisions being sent into frontal attacks.

The Special Operation of DevitaliZation of the Russian gene pool continues unabated, Putin will definitely secure his legacy as a new Peter the Great with this great triumph.

A question for the regulars here.

Where is Armata? Where is Kurganets? Where is Su-57 and Avangard? Where is the Revolution in Military Affairs which would put a final nail into evil NATO?

A timely reminder that the US produces more F-35s in a financial quarter than Russia has produced Su-57 in a decade.

The West made a big mistake not dismantling Russia in 1991 and instead enriching it in the vain hope it could join the civilized world.

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 17:19 utc | 3

From the previous thread...

Agree with b, it is interesting that the Zelensky Regime is spinning this week's purge as an anti-corruption driven measure. When we all know the entire top echelon of Ukraine politics and administration is corrupt.

Clearly that is not what is really going on, as today's Andrew Korybko articles clearly state:

https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelenskys-senior-advisor-mikhail

https://korybko.substack.com/p/deciphering-ukraines-destabilizing

The split into various factions likely resembles a similar split in the USA, where State, DoD and CIA all have different agendas, which sometimes conflict.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 17:20 utc | 4

I wonder why Boris Johnson went to Ukraine yesterday???

Posted by: David Pollard | Jan 24 2023 17:23 utc | 5

A timely reminder that the US produces more F-35s in a financial quarter than Russia has produced Su-57 in a decade.

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 17:19 utc | 3

Since the US has so many, they could easily deliver 1/4 of their hangar queens to Ukraine to "close the skies" as Zelensky requested nine months ago.

But no, the certain failure of that gambit would hurt sales to the vassals like Canada who just ordered 88.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 17:26 utc | 6

Among other things, Boris went to Ukraine to deflect attention from his corruption with regard to the BBC Chair appt.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | Jan 24 2023 17:30 utc | 7

I posted this on an older open ukraine thread in error but I'll repost here. Dima from the military summary channel has a interesting assessment of the current wave of Ukraine resignations, terminations and "accidents" that have been occurring this week while taking to Gonzala Lira earlier today. He says that the US is taking over direct control of the Ukrainian military and is cleaning house (echoes of the US organized assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem in Vietnam). this could be setting the stage for a direct US intervention in the coming weeks. The Duran also did a video and they also mentioned that this "anti-corruption" push looks like the US is moving in a big escalation, getting rid of the old, unreliable Ukraine officials and replacing them with more empty headed US lackeys, look out "Elesky", the US is coming for you, not the Russians

Posted by: Kadath | Jan 24 2023 17:41 utc | 8

reply to 4

Very interesting stuff. The critical point to me is that Zelensky survives on top, no matter what. He guarantees the best possible victory for Russia - which is the elimination of Ukr males such that the nation might not ever be able to fight again, into the indefinite future. This is similar to what the British discerned about Hitler. He was doing such damage to the war effort by his intransigence and bad decisions that assassinating him would be a mistake.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 24 2023 17:42 utc | 9

Hi b and all,

Three questions more than comments:
1. No news anymore of the Chechens ?
2. Khadirov ahs been very silent lately, was he getting to noisy and got slapped ?
3. "ethnic Hungarians" being massively drafted, how do you assess probability of Orban sending forces to protect them ?

Posted by: Balladin | Jan 24 2023 17:42 utc | 10

i first read about NABU during the biden/burisma scandal. with the orwellian "Anti-Corruption" moniker it was plopped into the middle of things to oversee(spy?) everything and make sure it was going the way DC wanted. it was NABU who wanted Shokin fired. it should be busted up, changing of the guards or something.

Posted by: annie | Jan 24 2023 17:45 utc | 11

Thank you b as always for your excellent coverage and commentary.

The USA and its chained appendages in Europe believe they can bleed Russia dry over years in Ukraine as the US was bled (money-laundered) for years in Afghanistan.

The arrogance is breathtaking and to be short-lived. The 'war' is going to conclude sooner than most predict. A Spring Offensive is a Zelensky wet dream.

Cheers!

Posted by: gottlieb | Jan 24 2023 17:45 utc | 12

Paul Spencer no. 2

I doubt government-issued suicide pills will be available in the event of nuclear holocaust in today's world. 😂

In other related news, the "doomsday clock" has been revised from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds to midnight.

Things don't look too good.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 24 2023 17:45 utc | 13

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/education/2330322-poland-to-ask-eu-for-compensation-for-cost-of-tanks-for-ukraine-pm-says

Well I suppose Churchill did call Poland the "greedy hyena of Europe"

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 24 2023 17:50 utc | 14

"..The West made a big mistake not dismantling Russia in 1991 and instead enriching it in the vain hope it could join the civilized world." Bernd@3

One of your sillier observations. And the competition is fierce.
Had the US showed any intention to dismantle Russia the Fifth Column led by Yeltsin would have been unseated in a day, by the Army.
It was only by practising the same sort of deceptions that it employed to ensure that Minsk would be a sham that the US persuaded the Soviet Union to dissolve itself leaving Russia open to the expansion of NATO.
As to "the civilised world" you mean like the USA? Or Ukraine?

Posted by: bevin | Jan 24 2023 17:52 utc | 15

If and when the Ukrainian military starts to collapse, the USA will activate their false flag nuclear attack and accuse Russia of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. They will try to kick Russia out of the UN.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Jan 24 2023 17:53 utc | 16

Posted by: Balladin | Jan 24 2023 17:42 utc | 10

I suspect this show started with competitive urges to self-profile.
Now with Surovikin I suspect proper military coordination became paramount.

Kadyrov has his part to play and it is not as prima ballerina

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 24 2023 17:53 utc | 17

Thanks for the posting b

I agree with your link of the outcome in Ukraine to the loss of U.S. financial hegemony.

I think that US debt default is a growing potential and empire may want to play that card before the RoW gets its alternative financial system up and running.
The longer they wait the less chance of them coming out with any cluster of humanity around them. Taking advantage of a crisis is what they excel at.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 24 2023 17:54 utc | 18

Posted by: David Pollard | Jan 24 2023 17:23 utc | 5

He has an £800,000 loan..........
Reports emerged last week that the big-spending ex-PM's distant Canadian cousin stepped in to help Mr Johnson fund his lavish lifestyle when he found himself in financial trouble in 2020.

Millionaire Sam Blyth acted as a guarantor to up to £800,000 of credit to fund the ex-PM’s “day-to-day expenses”, according to the Sunday Times.

He needs to make sure Zelensky is mailing the cheques

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 24 2023 17:56 utc | 19

Troll refutation:

"After repeated delays, the first Su-57 entered service with the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS)[N 2] in December 2020.[8] The fighter is expected to have a service life of up to 35 years."

And 21 have been built from 2019 to present.

How many F-35s have been tested in combat conditions where they've had to face sophisticated AD systems? The answer is zero. Why don't Millay and Austin want Abrams sent to Ukraine--because they'll get destroyed like all the other tanks that have been "donated," and that's bad for sales. The Outlaw US Empire's MIC makes weapons for profit not for proficiency or battlefield integrity. Why were F-22 grounded then removed from flightlines? Unsuitability in combat conditions. Why was the A-10 grounded then scrapped despite its glorious performance in Iraq? It wouldn't survive against Russian AD. Why the removal of the F-117? Not stealthy as it turned out amongst other problems. And the litany could be continued much longer. And I haven't even touched the USN.

Again, NATO has no weapons that allow it to defeat Russia, not even its nukes. The key was as Crooke and others have described-the Outlaw US Empire was so convinced by its own bullshit that Russia would collapse under the Sanctions From Hell that there was no Plan B whatsoever because there can't be a Plan B as NATO cannot defeat Russia. IMO, Russia has no worries about the introduction of Leopards, Abrams or any other MBT as they're all inferior to Russian weapons and will be destroyed.

What's now occurring is the shaping of the Post-Ukraine conflict world, the extended Financial Front of the War to End Outlaw US Empire Dollar Hegemony which is what Crooke mentioned in his conclusion.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 17:56 utc | 20

@ David Pollard | Jan 24 2023 17:23 utc | 5

Deflecting from his sketchy loan agreement which is now coming to the surface. And a little bit massacre-marketing in Bucha on top.

Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 24 2023 17:57 utc | 21

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 24 2023 17:54 utc | 18

The US default would be a one hit wonder. They can cause one-time damage to the global south as a lot of their wealth is still parked in US treasury bonds, but every day they wait diminishes the effect.

The "flow" (what currency is used in transactions currently and who issues it) is much more important the "static" (in what currency wealth is being held, and who issues it). US is losing the "flow", while they still have a large domination in "static". "Flow" changes "static" over time.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 24 2023 17:59 utc | 22

[18]

US debt default

How exactly does that occur ? Not clear how US defaults on itself .......what does it look like ?

Are you suggesting US cannot service Debt interest ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 24 2023 17:59 utc | 23

TCM showed On the Beach yesterday. Timely reminder, but will probably be ignored.
Posted by: Paul Spencer | Jan 24 2023 17:18 utc | 2

Grim but appropriate reminder Paul.

Posted by: jpc | Jan 24 2023 17:59 utc | 24

Not sure where Girkin is coming from,if Russian soldiers don't know what they are fighting for with the SMO they never will,how about the survival of the Russian Federation?

Posted by: Sword | Jan 24 2023 18:00 utc | 25

All fun and games until someone launches a nuke.
And there's enough mentally deranged psychopaths to think that's a runner in DC.

Posted by: jpc | Jan 24 2023 18:01 utc | 26

It is amazing how small the distances (only a few km) and how strong the fortifications are in the main battle area. In this case, the use of aerosol bombs - should the factual stalemate continue - is only a matter of time. Maybe the Russians are just waiting for the arrival of the Leopards.

Posted by: xblob | Jan 24 2023 18:01 utc | 27

Balladin @10--

Orban lacks the forces to protect ethnic Hungarians within Ukraine as was discussed yesterday. Look up the comments by Old Microbiologist, an ex-pat residing in Hungary, and the replies made to him on the open thread.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 18:01 utc | 28

no worries about the introduction of Leopards, Abrams or any other MBT as they're all inferior to Russian weapons

I very much doubt that is true. They are however designed for a different battlefield a long way from Russian borders...........and probably for desert conditions. Challenger is after all a re-design of tanks ordered by Shah of Iran - Shir-1

https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/9uz7bi/a_gold_plated_challenger_1_model_crafted_for_the/

The largest foreign sale of the Chieftain tanks was in fact to Iran, which took delivery of 707 Mk-3P and Mk-5P (the letter P standing for Persia), as well as 187 FV4030-1, 41 ARV and 14 AVLB before the 1979 revolution ................The Chieftain tank and along with the M60 tank was used extensively by Iran during the Iran–Iraq War of 1980–88, including the largest tank battle of the war, with mixed results as the Chieftain Mk 3/5 suffered from chronic engine problems and low power-to-weight ratio, making the Chieftain unreliable and slow when maneuvering over harsh terrain, which in turn made it prone to breakdowns in the midst of battle or a sluggish target and thus vulnerable to enemy tank fire.[15] Out of the 875 Chieftain tanks that had started the war only 200 were left

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 24 2023 18:06 utc | 29

loss of U.S. financial hegemony.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 24 2023 17:54 utc | 18

---

The loss of judicial hegemony is just as, if not more significant.

The US base at Diego Garcia in the Maldives is illegally occupied. The West cannot remain above Justice.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/un-court-rejects-uk-claim-to-chagos-islands-in-favour-of-mauritius

Losing in Ukraine brings a new sheriff in town.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 24 2023 18:06 utc | 30

Posted by: Balladin | Jan 24 2023 17:42 utc | 10

3 - Zero, Orban has no army availble for such tasks. Non-nazis should run to Hungary as fast as they can, all those who stay will die for Zely sooner or later.

Posted by: rk | Jan 24 2023 18:07 utc | 31

Scholz approves sending Leopard tanks to Kiev.

https://t.me/IntelRepublic/12566

Maybe an MoA betting pool on what date Scholz in his Berlin bunker commits suicide swallowing a cyanide capsule and shooting himself in the head?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 18:07 utc | 32

When will the F-35 be sky worthy? repair worthy? battle worthy? How about functional? Notice they never fly where there is any competition. No flights in harms way. No documents exist of a non partial inspection of the craft that might show it in a bad light. They sell them armed solely with a guarantee of serfdom for anyone stupid enough to buy into it.
How do they explain that? "it works great" "it works" "you can't repair it" "you didn't purchase that option" "without those options it won't; 1. fly 2. be stealthy 3. can't land 4. Can't eject pilot. 5. Can't carry weapons that have already been approved. Can't, won't, don't.
They keep selling them to friends. Do the friends realize it can't work until they are bankrupted for making the purchase agreement in the first place?
With what the US is ordering the EU nations to do seems to follow a pattern of bankrupting all of our allies. Our allies seem to enjoy destroying their nations futures by buying junk they aren't allowed to test.
I guess when the US government is paying every nation to buy the F-35 with new money they never have to pay back, sales are good. If you call that a sale.

Posted by: Tard | Jan 24 2023 18:09 utc | 34

On Outlaw US Empire debt and the making of the new international currency regime, please see yesterday's entries on the week in review thread. In Congress, what's currently being discussed is moving the debt ceiling metric from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of GDP--yes, that imaginary and massively inflated number. Yellen of course is warning of default if the ceiling isn't increased soon, which gives one an idea of the Empire's rate of revenue intake--it must borrow regardless as revenues aren't anywhere near enough thanks to Neoliberal tax policy. As mentioned before, this topic deserves a thread of its own as it's a Big Picture topic that's beyond the Ukraine conflict.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 18:10 utc | 35

US military leaders are reluctant to send Abrams, because they know the abrams have a HUGE weakness!!.. it's called a "Turbine engine"... not only is it maintenance intensive and expensive to operate, it also makes the Abrams stand out like a beacon on IR.. the damn things produce so much heat, that you can actually target them with heat seeker missiles!!

Posted by: Oldcutlas | Jan 24 2023 18:13 utc | 36

I'm glad the NATO trolls are here to say a lot of bloodthirsty things to make people realize how brutal the dissolution of the Soviet Union was.

The dichotomy of the so-called "civilized West" versus the "barbaric East" is nothing but a hoax.

Apparently, Iraq, with thousands of years of civilization, is somehow considered more "barbaric" than the United States, which is no more than a few hundred years old.

Ordinary Russian nationalists had imagined at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union that this meant the "restoration" of the kind of Slavic national community they had hoped for. What they did not want to accept was the fact that the Soviet Union was the guarantor of that community, and that they had become "useful idiots" for the United States.

He mentioned the term gene pool. This term is exactly the one used in the official translation of the Ukrainian Constitution in the provisions that reflect its racist and neo-Nazi tendencies.

I noticed that he appeared in third place this time, seeing that based on my feedback yesterday, they found it too obvious to always appear in second place.

He only mentions the morale talked about in the original article, without mentioning its reference to the fact that everything else in Ukraine was so bad that it gave the Russian army a chance to win.

If we take the same "logic", it is clear that the criticism of America itself by many on the far right after January 6 means that America had been completely finished.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 18:14 utc | 37

We're not quite certain whether a jellyfish may grow a spine, give or take a few million years, but at least in Sholz's case there is no room for doubt - there is no span of time that would make a man out of him.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 18:15 utc | 38

Any NATO MBT entering Ukraine will die from Hermes missiles or other ordinance; they're inferior, it's really that simple.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 18:15 utc | 39

@migueljose

The pamphlet ‘can Brics de-dollarize the global financial system?’ By zongyuan Zoe Liu and mihaela papa seems like an excellent primer on the subject.

Published just before the smo.

Pozsar recommended it as a good foundation for future discussion.

Posted by: financial matters | Jan 24 2023 18:16 utc | 40


@ Berndt 3

Civilized world = ethnic cleansing of Russians in Crimea, Odessa, Zap and Kherson region, Dombass or at least apartheid like in the three balts midgets states.

You should have worked for Propagandaministerium in WWII for you use the same words and share the same purpose : to "dismantle" Russia and push back Russians beyond Urals.

Posted by: America is defeated | Jan 24 2023 18:16 utc | 41

LoL Natorons mentioning the F35 like its some kind of trump card.

F35 programme is one of the biggest scams in history. This "plane" will never be anything but an expensive dust collector at hangars alk over the world.

Even American publications agree F35 is a complete failure due to being extremely complex, costly and having some huge flaws.

LoL F35 helmets cost a million dollars and have so many visual warnings and crap that pilots take them off to actually be able to fly the plane LoL

How low and despwrate are Natotards that they have to scrape the F35 from bottom of the barrel to make a failed point LoL

Posted by: Comandante | Jan 24 2023 18:18 utc | 42

as for the F-35 argument, Russia doesn't build as many SU-57's, for several reasons,

1) the SU-57 wasn't made to replace every jet they and their allies have, like the F-35

2) Russia isn't trying to use it's air force to dominate the entire world like the US does

3) Russia knows a truth that the US doesn't seem to understand, Russia doesn't have to match the US jet for jet, they only need to make air defenses to shoot down US jets. the S-500, and S-550 defense systems both have hypersonic missile capability, which means any US jet invading Russia's airspace, will be blown out of the sky about 3 seconds after the pilot learns there is a threat.

4) Russia builds their military to defend their nation, not attack others, therefore they concentrate on ground forces, and artillery, which is much more effective for defending your nation.

Posted by: Oldcutlas | Jan 24 2023 18:19 utc | 43

I suspect that Boris may have been in Kiev exerting British influence on the ongoing government reshuffle - not to let the CIA have a free hand.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 24 2023 18:26 utc | 44

The West made a big mistake not dismantling Russia in 1991 and instead enriching it in the vain hope it could join the civilized world.

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 17:19 utc | 3

The ominous civilized world where they cannot heat their homes and shower rarely.

Maybe the big mistake of Russia is that after Napoleon and Hitler they keep giving "the West" yet another chance and didn't dismantle it for good. They should have never allowed peaceful German unification. That was a grave mistake.

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 24 2023 18:27 utc | 45

Sergeant Scholz evidently wasn't satisfied with the look of the T-34's standing between his Chancellery and the Brandenburg Gate and wanted to have them upgraded with more modern T-90's. If European leaders keep this up he may just get his wish.

Jokes aside, the US is really squeezing its vassals to firstly offer up their gear to be destroyed, and then replace it with its US weapons, securing even more contracts for its arms industry while weakening its European competitor firms, not just their Govt's and overall economies.

I get the feeling Russia may also be willing to let this continue, as it only weakens European states and further sets the foundations for resentment towards the USA making Russia's proposals more appealing for Europe to Nato's, once this conflict eventually resolves itself.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jan 24 2023 18:29 utc | 46

F35's only utility vs Russia is as a nuclear delivery platform in a hypothetical first strike scenario. Given Russia's radar capabilities, testing that scenario is almost certainly suicidal. It could also probably be usable in a defensive war, given the aircraft's radar and stealth capabilities.

But to fly from Poland or Romania to strike targets in Ukraine? Good luck.

Let us see how long the tanks take to arrive. I suspect that this alleged delivery is going to be sufficiently late for Ukraine to collapse, 'but at least we tried'.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 18:32 utc | 47

I was messing around with that new chatbot. It struck me as possible that multiple social media accounts could just be algorithms. (Al Gore ithms). Same here. Multiple posters could just be AI talking to AI. Any circumspectral or speculative post is exactly the same in quality as AI just rehypothecating what already is while contributing exactly nothing new. The machines already outperform these inane functions. Come up with something inspirational or beautiful or be subsumed in the tide of technology.

Posted by: Jacq | Jan 24 2023 18:33 utc | 48

About Su-57

The troll didn't actually compare apples to apples, a common trick of those trolls.

The total number of F-35 produced in the first two years was 37, while the number of "publicly discovered" mass-produced Su-57 in the past 2 years was 10. The latter is clearly as unreliable as the number of nuclear bombs owned by Korea.

Considering that even the number of production su-57 discovered by people is 11. It is especially ridiculous that the so-called "fact-check" English-language media are trying to claim that Russia has only "three to five" mass-produced SU-57.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 18:37 utc | 49

They should have never allowed peaceful German unification. That was a grave mistake.

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 24 2023 18:27 utc | 45

I disagree, absent the USA's meddling, Germany and Russia could have had the same kind of symbiotic (I'm being kind) relationship as Canada and the USA.

The whole Grand Chessboard (McKinder > Brzezinski > Wolfowitz) dynamic is at play here and would succeed if Germany was free to act in its own best interests.

Thierry Meyssan's latest on the Voltaire Network...

... Paul Wolfowitz to write a report which has only come to us largely redacted. Excerpts from the original report published by the New York Times and the Washington Post show that Washington no longer considered Russia a threat, but the European Union a potential rival . It stated: "While the United States supports the project of European integration, we must be careful to prevent the emergence of a purely European security system that would undermine NATO, especially its integrated military command structure." In other words, Washington approves of a European defence subordinate to NATO, but is ready to destroy the European Union if it imagines itself becoming a political power capable of standing up to it....

This war is not being waged against Moscow, but to weaken the European Union.

https://www.voltairenet.org/article218706.html

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 18:39 utc | 50

@6

don’t know why Bernd brings up f-35.

last month gao observed f-35 is ruining us tactical aviation.

f-35 cannot pass operational test, each delivery has technical performance holes, it is unreliable, hard to fix, drains parts, needs an engine, needs new radar, and Carrie’s 16000 pounds of fuel.

Bernd is not aware.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 24 2023 18:40 utc | 51

Troll reply

". . the morale of Ukrainian troops is much higher than their Russian counterparts, as the latter have no idea what the aim of this so-called "SMO" even is. . "

Why of course. The Ukie troops are fighting to keep control of an area that is predominantly ethnic Russian, whose residents have endured 8 years of abuse by the Kiev government, and want the Ukrainians to leave. After the Russians took Mariupol, there were videos of babushkas hugging Russian troops, referring to them as "our boys."

Posted by: Mike R | Jan 24 2023 18:40 utc | 52

Seems my comment about the F-35 really hit a nerve.

I'll reiterate. There have been to date 800+ F-35s delivered, if we combine this with the number of F-22s, that means the US has produced over 1000 fifth generation fighter jets, Russia meanwhile can't even produce enough Su-57s for one squadron (the US "aggressor" team, used to simulate J-20, has more than Russia lol)

The F-35 has 660,000 flight hours to date, it has been proven in combat conditions over Syria by Israel.

A massive 16% of all serial production Su-57s have crashed to date.

I am a lover of peace, I would be very happy if Russia withdrew from Ukrainian territory instead of hurtling us all towards a nuclear war.

As others have said in this thread, this war is existential for American financial hegemony. America has thousands of nuclear warheads ready to hit targets all across Russia.

Is a small patch of Ukraine really worth destroying the world over?

Russia should withdraw immediately and hope reparations won't be too high.

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:42 utc | 53

Don't worry barflies from the moon! It's not the end of the world.

The European Yankee poodles are wagging their tails and sending another bunch of (mostly) obsolete hardware over to be trashed. The Americans hope to provoke a reaction from Putin that way. But as long as "Endsiegers" such as Bernd and the dogshitters from NAFO are busy spreading their verbal dung nothing serious is on the agenda of the US Empire.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Jan 24 2023 18:44 utc | 54

Let us see how long the tanks take to arrive.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 18:32 utc | 47

They were allegedly seen in Ukr days ago. More will arrive this week but I doubt the first batch will be larger than 100 tanks. And then we'll get a lot of fakes, like selfies next to destroyed Ukr tanks pretending to be Russian. I also noticed there's an increased rate of youtube suggestions with fakes or propaganda from Ukr, more and more retarded videos but with many views.
Rossi also said today that there are no weapons at any Ukr NPP, he checked. So it looks like Bojo prepared a new Bucha on his latest visit. "Because Putin was defeated by 12 Panzers, he shelled an npp!"

Posted by: rk | Jan 24 2023 18:45 utc | 55

Part of purge in Kyiv today?

Official: First results in helicopter crash investigation to be disclosed ’in near future'

The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, opened an investigation that is currently considering several versions of what had caused the crash, including violation of flight security rules, technical malfunction of the helicopter, and intentional actions to destroy the vehicle.

Air force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat earlier said that the crash would be investigated by a special state commission that is yet to be created, and the process would take “not a couple of days” but at least several weeks.

Posted by: Oui | Jan 24 2023 18:45 utc | 56

It looks like RF is now in offensive action on the whole contact line.The objective is to pin AFU down in all sectors - while trying to break through on different locations.
So AFU won't be able to send reinforcements from active sectors - and reserves don't know where to go.

The pressure will increase steadily - and RF will stage some "huge offensives" - like we saw some days ago - but I think this it is so far only aimed to distract AFU command.The real push has not started yet. All that will keep the tension and so demobilize AFU completely.

The destruction of heavy equipment in the near and far rear is also increasing - fresh units ready to replace units on the front are targeted shortly before sent in - this will delay the replacement and demoralise the guys on the contact line and the damaged reinforcements.

MI6 reported that RF is preparing to attack all Dnjepr bridges and also prepare a push south West of the Oskil River.
(I doubt the bridge thing - but the latter forced AFU to hold reserves near Kharkov.)

The New "NATO corps" (Leo2, rest of older Sovjet tanks, Bradley's Strykers and German IFVs won't be ready before Spring.
So we will watch a complete breakdown on the Eastern part of the country.


https://t.me/geromanat/4712

Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 18:47 utc | 57

In his most recent interview, Colonel Douglas Macgregor states (at around 34 minutes into the interview) that he believes a massive Russian offensive in Ukraine will take place sometime between Jan 21st and Feb 6-7th.

He says the offensive will include massive jamming of US/NATO communications, including those coming US surveillance aircraft, perhaps including shootdown of US satellites. Macgregor later (53:30 in the interview) says the target sets will change to major attacks to troop concentrations and headquarters, including troops being prepared to sent in.

Is Macgregor right?

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 18:49 utc | 58

Posted by: Mike R | Jan 24 2023 18:40 utc | 52

What in the name is an "ethnic Russian", is a Buryat from the far East who speaks Russian an "ethnic Russian"? Is Michael McFaul an ethnic Russian because he speaks Russian?

After Kharkiv was liberated, there were videos of old ladies hugging members of Azov* and the two conversing in Russian.The Ukrainians know what they are fighting for so they didn't have to make a big deal about it like Russia with its Babushka waving a Soviet flag charade.


* - Did you know all Azov commanders to date have been "ethnic Russians"?


Posted by: paddy | Jan 24 2023 18:40 utc | 51

I've found that bringing up the failure that is the Su-57 (dropped by even India) always annoys the Rusotriumphists, all their obsessions over small defects here and there for an aircraft that has flown over 600,000 man hours and where even a small amount of metal sourced from China is cause for "scandal" pales in comparison to their willingness to overlook how Russia still hasn't modernized it's army and air force, and how they are still using Su-25 in inaccurate rocket lobbing attacks.

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:50 utc | 59

According to Western news agencies, citing leaks in the reporting documents of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, the “Wagner Group” is a unique threat in direct contact, they came to this conclusion after fighting in the Bakhmut area.

In particular, as stated in the Ukrainian intelligence report of December 2022, Wagner assault groups do not retreat from positions without commands, and they are also forbidden to take the victims from the battlefield on their own, since their main task is to continue the offensive until the goal is reached. At the same time, it is noted that if the assault fails, the Wagnerites can retreat from their positions only at night.

It is also reported that, unlike the classic battalion tactical groups used by the Russian Armed Forces, Wagner uses assault units, the report notes. They deploy their forces in mobile teams of about 10 or fewer, using RPGs and real-time intelligence from drones, which the report calls a key element.


https://t.me/geromanat/4732

Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 18:50 utc | 60

There isn't going to be a big arrow winter offensive. If the ground does freeze deep enough to hold heavy armor, it will soon begin unfreezing. It unfreezes from the top, and the result is a surface more slippery than snot. If the surface conditions are a big factor, it will have to wait. Second, it's not yet time. Russia has to punch some big holes in the Ukrainian lines, finish off Bakhmut and encircle some other strongholds. The best short term outcome is the encirclement and surrender of thousands of AFU troops. That will have a profound effect on Ukraine and the media spin.

Posted by: Mike R | Jan 24 2023 18:50 utc | 61

it has been proven in combat conditions over Syria by Israel.
Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:42 utc | 53
it would be fun to see what you can crap out to verify that statement.

the f35 is a means of collecting tribute and subordinating industries to US MIC. and swindling the domestic peeps. i build paper airplanes that fly more better in the rain than the f35. from used toilet paper.

people with a limited budget make better weapons. people with an infinite budget and no actual enemies make...what? shiny piles of trash that are lucky to run about as well as a Ford F135?

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 18:54 utc | 62

b: "I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line."

That's probably why the Russians did it - to draw in even more Ukrainian forces into the "meat grinder".

Colonel Macgregor continues to think they'll be a Russian offensive on any of three axis. He claims the number of Russian tanks is now up to 2,000 from 1,500 a few weeks ago, and possibly another 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed to the rear area as support units (drivers, maintenance, etc.) raising the total force to perhaps 700,000. I still don't know where he gets his figures from, no one else mentions them, but whatever. He also claims the likely start is between January 21 and February 6th. Well, we're past the 21st, but that was the start of the "mini-offensive" b writes about.

I continue to believe Russia will not do a major offensive within the next couple months, but rather will simply apply greater "ground and pound" with its enhanced forces until the current Saversk-Bahkmut line is destroyed, and then the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line is destroyed. Then the Russians will shorten their front, consolidate their forces and drive the remaining Ukrainians back across the Dnieper (or destroy the Dnieper bridges and destroy the remaining Ukrainians on the east side.)

After that, there would be a push across the Dnieper in the south and perhaps a strike from the north on the western side of the Dnieper, as Macgregor suggests, and possibly a strike from Belarus, where Macgregor claims the Russian force is now up to 100,000. However, Ukraine claims no more than 11,000 as of January 16, so again, I don't know where he gets his numbers.

Or in my view, Russian forces will consolidate somewhere, either in the south or north (perhaps even in both places so as to enable a pincer any time it's needed), and then push towards Kiev, swerving only to destroy any significant Ukraine forces which emerge from the cities to fight. Once in Kiev, the war is over.

I no longer think Russia will attempt to do anything about "cutting off the supply of Western weapons", which is the main reason Macgregor believes in strikes from south and north. I don't think Russia cares at all what Western weapons enter Ukraine (short of nukes). The goal is to destroy Ukraine's military with all its assets. Better the West wastes its weapons in Ukraine than use them against Russia elsewhere. It won't change the outcome of the war, and it won't cause significantly more Russian casualties because Russian operational art is better than Ukraine's and the West's. Russia has handled every Western weapon system so far, and can handle any weapon system the West has, including Abrams tanks and F-16s and F-35s.

Gonzalo Lira, in his video on the F-16s, suggests that the West will send the F-16s, flown by US or other NATO pilots from Poland, then when they are destroyed it will send F-35s and possibly "justify" further NATO intervention. Brian Berletic and Mercouris have pointed out that several German generals have now spoken out against supplying any more weapons systems to Ukraine because they, being military professionals, can see what a waste of assets is in a losing war.

As b says, Biden has blown through all the supposed "red lines", so I think we can count on much more Western intervention into Ukraine until Russia is forced to engage NATO directly. There is a fundamental discord between the US and NATO military officers who can see the futility and the neocons in the US and NATO who can't. It's not clear who will win out.

The question is: If Russia decisively defeats Ukraine in the next six to nine months, and appears to be doing so sooner, will the West panic and do something stupid, or will it have enough fear of WWIII to stand down? I have no answer to that, and anyone else's answer to that question is just smoke out of their ass. (But a bunch of people here will authoritatively state one.)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 24 2023 18:54 utc | 63

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 18:07 utc | 32


Maybe an MoA betting pool on what date Scholz in his Berlin bunker commits suicide swallowing a cyanide capsule and shooting himself in the head?

Never, this time the West is not "prolonging the conflict" like it did in WW2 by giving massive Lend-Lease aid to Russia.

When will Putin visit Donbas by the way? Maybe Finland could build a very long table, long enough for Putin to sit at one end in Moscow and the puppet ministers in the so-called LDPR in Donbas.

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:54 utc | 64

The life expectancy of a person mobilized into the AFU does not exceed a month.

@dillfrash came across one of the obituaries about a Volyn region resident who was mobilized on December 26 into the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

On December 26, he reported to the military registration and enlistment office. 

By December 31, he had passed all examinations and left for his unit.

By January 10, he was in the front 

On January 19, he was destroyed in the area of Novoselovskoye or Belogorovka (that's where the Russian army is engaged in combat operations).

Naturally, there was no question of training.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/30447

Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 18:54 utc | 65

I wonder why Boris Johnson went to Ukraine yesterday???
Posted by: David Pollard | Jan 24 2023 17:23 utc | 5

Probably not getting his leg-over with Carrie Antoinette at the moment.

Posted by: GT Stroller | Jan 24 2023 18:55 utc | 66

Paul Greenwood @23,

the whole debt ceiling thing is an example of uniquely American silliness. basically the US government has a law that says that government can't have more debt than "31.4" trillion dollars. If it exceeds the debit the government stops paying salaries, debts, etc.... Logically one would think the government would just choose not to spent so much that it exceeds the limit, but the US government ALWAYS has a deficit and hits the debt ceiling every 2-3 years, so they just raise the debt ceiling. Effectively the US Government stops paying creditors and uses the 30-90 day grace period on these obligations to negotiate an increase in the debt ceiling (there's been something like 29 debt ceiling crises in the past 40yrs). I'm sure we'll eventually reach a point where the ceiling is over $50 trillion and we're having debt ceiling crisis every year. The people who really get hurt by this BS are low ranking government officials (since they dont get paid their salaries until a new deal is made and it can take several months)

Posted by: Kadath | Jan 24 2023 18:56 utc | 67

@Balladin | Jan 24 2023 17:42 utc

If you are interested into the Chechens and their head of gouvernement, R.A.K. (who holds also the rank of a Lieutenant General of the the National Guard of the RF) - well, knowledge of Russian or Chechen would be an advantage - check out the Chechen TV at grozny.tv

As for all the stuff about internal quarrels - when was the last time you heard about conflicts between TX National Guard and US Army or PMC Academi? Just forget it, this is wishful thinking of Western ignorants.

Posted by: BG13 | Jan 24 2023 18:56 utc | 68

Ask a Ukronazi, they call ethnic Russians Orcs. They had a way of publicly identifying orcs too - tape them to lampposts and spray paint their faces green. Isn't that lovely?

Posted by: Mike R | Jan 24 2023 18:57 utc | 69

I wonder why Boris Johnson went to Ukraine yesterday???

Posted by: David Pollard | Jan 24 2023 17:23 utc | 5

Distraction from a financial scandal perhaps - BoJo is broke, as well as being really stingy and financially grabby in person, He had to obtain a £800K loan while in office - this loan was allegedly brokered by a man who then subsequently became chairman of the BBC

Maybe he was trying to get Elensky to bung him some cash

Bojo is also an extreme narcissist and only gets positive attention by poncing around in Kiev

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jan 24 2023 18:57 utc | 70

Our source reports that the future offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine depends on mobilization. It is imperative to raise tens of thousands of new soldiers and form reserves of over 200,000 soldiers.

In the spring and summer there will be a larger meat grinder, where thousands of soldiers will die a day, but the President's Office cares about the result, not the "price". They have a year left, the longer the war, the greater the risk that they will simply get tired of it or that new hot spots and world problems will appear.

That's all they say that '23 is likely to decide a lot.


https://t.me/legitimniy/14628

Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 18:57 utc | 71


Germany and Russia could have had the same kind of symbiotic (I'm being kind) relationship as Canada and the USA.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 18:39 utc | 50

Thats exactly the mistake Russia made. Putin really believed that. If you remember the G20 in 2014 Putin tried to convince Merkel just that... for the last time. And Merkel refused and lied to him as she recently admitted.

At some point Russia has to see that the West will always want to destroy Russia. They try to do just that every 80 to 100 years. Russia could have easily turned GDR, Poland, Czechoslovakia and co. into what the US turned Ukraine and fight a proxy war until the threat from the west is gone for good. But they keep giving Europe chances.

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 24 2023 18:58 utc | 72

re: Oldcutlas | Jan 24 2023 18:13 utc | 36
you wrote:
"US military leaders are reluctant to send Abrams, because they know the abrams have a HUGE weakness!!.. it's called a "Turbine engine"... not only is it maintenance intensive and expensive to operate, it also makes the Abrams stand out like a beacon on IR.. the damn things produce so much heat, that you can actually target them with heat seeker missiles!!

Colonel Douglas Macgregor said the same thing about the M1 turbine engine; that it produces so much heat that it creates a distinct thermal signature that makes it easy to find and target. Russian tanks have a thermal blanket over their engines to minimize a thermal signature.

The turbine engine is a jet engine put into a tank; Macgregor said that is uses as much fuel when it is sitting still as when it is running. Some kind of pack was put on the tank to allow it to start faster when turned off, but this takes extra time and creates vulnerability. The tank will run for 7-8 hours with the engine running before it requires refueling.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 18:58 utc | 73

Macgregor is only positing what a logical offensive plan in his opinion would be. It seems to me that a massive push would also entail a lot of Russian casualties in sectors where Ukrainian defense works successfully, and that the Russians are somewhat more comfortable with doing this constrictive, suffocating approach. They may dial up the temperature, maybe even go for broke if a certain part of the front is weak, but I don't see why they would do a massive operation - and how the West wouldn't trumpet about it in advance, given the impossibility of hiding a high troop concentration nowadays.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 19:00 utc | 74

By any scientific standard, currently known information (Russia apparently has more su-57s than were officially delivered) and uncertainty mean that the assumption that there is no difference in production capacity between the su-57 and the f-35 in the early production stages cannot be rejected.

Of course, while NATO media claims Syrian S-300 was unable to detect Israel's F-35 jets, Israel itself has at least said Syria's S-200 air defense system detected and attacked the F-35s, although Israel blamed the subsequent damage to the fighters on the birds.

Considering that the primary purpose of the f-35 is to counter new Russian and Chinese air defense systems, this means that the f-35 is very well not worth its cost.

Indeed, Russia had thousands of nuclear bombs and a small piece of Ukraine is not worth destroying the whole world. That is why all interference in the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia should be stopped immediately.

"I am a lover of peace, I would be very happy if NATO withdrew from the war instead of hurtling us all towards a nuclear war."

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 19:02 utc | 75

Air force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat earlier said that the crash would be investigated by a special state commission that is yet to be created, and the process would take “not a couple of days” but at least several weeks.

Posted by: Oui | Jan 24 2023 18:45 utc | 56

It will take several weeks to locate and silence the eye witnesses who saw it catch fire while still in flight. At least they are not outsourcing the cover-up to the Netherlands.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 19:02 utc | 76

@ Bernd 53

Is a small patch of Ukraine really worth destroying the world over?

The war is existencial for Russia too. Defeat means "dismantlement" as you seek in small so-call independant entities, predation of natural and mineral resources of Russia, enslavement and impoverishment of Russians in and out the new "civilized" Russia, apartheid on Russians in Ukraine, Balts midgets states, Belarus, Turkestan...

Millions of Russians and non-Russians know it, their president too. They would rather press the red button than save the Western way of life based on debt and the dollar statute. So enough is enough : To ethnically purify the Russians and refuse a multipolar world really worth destroying the world over?

Posted by: America is defeated | Jan 24 2023 19:03 utc | 77

Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 18:50 utc | 60

I guess they just watched the "Best in Hell" movie, because all of that is shown there. This is what Western "intelligence" is capable of - watching movies made by their enemies and listening to Ukraine intelligence.

That's something Larry Johnson and Scott Ritter have pointed out - there is no actual intelligence operations any more, the emphasis at Western intelligence is listening to the intelligence agencies of their "partners", which makes it ridiculously easy for those "partners" to manipulate the Western intelligence agencies for their own agendas. Ukraine is the prime example - everything the Western media reports comes directly from Ukraine via the CIA to the ISW to the media.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 24 2023 19:03 utc | 78

🇺🇦Comander of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU Colonel Lutsenko has reported to Major-General Mikatsu O.M., commander of the East Operational Command, that the second battalion of 247 AFU servicemen have given up their tasks during the counter-attack on Marinka settlement.

In this case, Lutsenko asks them to rotate, as their moral and psychological state is at a low level. For his part, Major-General Mikatz O.M. decided to send a Kraken platoon (barrier troops) to force them to carry out tasks under threat of death.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/30457

Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 19:04 utc | 79


Ask a Ukronazi, they call ethnic Russians Orcs. They had a way of publicly identifying orcs too - tape them to lampposts and spray paint their faces green. Isn't that lovely?

Posted by: Mike R | Jan 24 2023 18:57 utc | 69

https://twitter.com/Bernade58733135/status/1616011753015443456

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 24 2023 19:05 utc | 80

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 17:19 utc | 3

Comander of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU Colonel Lutsenko has reported to Major-General Mikatsu O.M., commander of the East Operational Command, that the second battalion of 247 AFU servicemen have given up their tasks during the counter-attack on Marinka settlement. In this case, Lutsenko asks them to rotate, as their moral and psychological state is at a low level.
For his part, Major-General Mikatz O.M. decided to send a Kraken platoon (barrier troops) to force them to carry out tasks under threat of death.

https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

Sounds like Grikin/Sterlkov is full of shit again. I used think of him as a doomist with heart at the right place. Now I think he's just a moron.

Posted by: A.L. | Jan 24 2023 19:05 utc | 81

If there's a Russian army waiting at the border, the West can't say anything about it. MSM story is that 12 tanks, or 50, depending on source, will take back Crimea

Posted by: rk | Jan 24 2023 19:10 utc | 82

Everyone keeps asking when are the Russians going to launch their grand offensive? My response is: do the Russians even need to launch a major offensive?

As b points out, the Russian army is organized to be defensive by nature by its heavy reliance on artillery. As long as the Ukrainians continue to hurl bodies at their lines and kill zones, there really is no need for the Russians to make a big push in any direction. Only when all the Ukrainians cease all attacks will the Russian command judge that it is time to advance.

Posted by: Monos | Jan 24 2023 19:11 utc | 83

I get the feeling Russia may also be willing to let this continue, as it only weakens European states and further sets the foundations for resentment towards the USA making Russia's proposals more appealing for Europe to Nato's, once this conflict eventually resolves itself.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jan 24 2023 18:29 utc | 46


I don't think anyone has thought about the observation that you have made inside the beltway.
Whether its rank hubris, short sighted Ignorance or simple don't give a fuck (a la Nuland)
Does it matter?

Posted by: jpc | Jan 24 2023 19:13 utc | 84

Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 19:00 utc | 74
"given the impossibility of hiding a high troop concentration nowadays."

The Russians won't care about hiding it. Why bother hiding it when you can just crush the enemy? As I've said before, once Russia has forced the Ukrainians out of their fortifications, they can just consolidate their forces and go on the offensive and just roll over any remaining Ukrainians, no matter whether the Ukrainians have 100,000, 200,000 or 700,000 untrained cannon fodder troops who can't effectively operate their Western weapons systems.

People keep arguing a binary choice of "offensive vs no-offensive". It's ridiculous. There won't be an "offensive" NOW but there will be an "offensive" LATER. It's that simple. As Macgregor has said, an offensive is absolutely necessary because this is how you get to Kiev and end the war. You can't end the war until you take Kiev - unless there is a coup and Kiev surrenders first, and even then Russia has to go to Kiev and take control, to insure the Ukraine military surrenders and is disarmed.

Common bloody sense.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 24 2023 19:17 utc | 85

Germany has announced it will be sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Spiegel reports they will be of the A6 variant, one of the most modern.

Good to see yet another one of Russia's "red lines" being smudged, good to see the bluff being called.

Also, the US plants to increase artillery shell production 500% over the next 2 years. Russia ill-conceived invasion may have lifted the blinders from the US Defence Establishment. Perhaps we will see a return to the USA of old, an industrial arms producing beheamoth?

I think long range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory are in order next, Britain will send Brimstones but I'm thinking JASSM would be perfect for the job. Let's put those Pantsirs to work in Moscow :)

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 19:18 utc | 86

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 24 2023 18:58 utc | 72

Alas, Putin underestimated this evil woman who sold out her own school friends to the Stasi - which is the ONLY rational explanation why "IM Erika" was able to have a higher education AND a university career in the GDR in the first place.

Up until 1990 Merkel never did anything in her LIFE that wouldn't advance her career and AFTER 1990 the US had enough dirt on her ("compromat") so she would be the perfect tool of the corrupt "Christian" democrats in a higher political office. Certainly no wonder corrupt Kohl "chose" her over all the other candidates - Langley most likely told him so. Just in case his dirty little Minol-affair should ever be forgotten like the 5th of November.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Jan 24 2023 19:19 utc | 87

Lieber Bernd, was bist Du nur für ein widerlicher Kriegstreiber.

Posted by: Günther | Jan 24 2023 19:21 utc | 88

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:54 utc | 64
"When will Putin visit Donbas by the way? Maybe Finland could build a very long table, long enough for Putin to sit at one end in Moscow and the puppet ministers in the so-called LDPR in Donbas."

Thanks for the laughs!!!

Posted by: nathan in WA US | Jan 24 2023 19:22 utc | 89

Considering that the Syrian S-200 invented in the 1960s was already sufficient to detect the F-35 jets, the troll even thought his mock on Su-25 which was invented in 1975 would mean anything

By his "logic", the usage of the t-34 by UAF apparently guaranteed a total defeat of NATO.

Btw, it seems that NATO triumphalists always believe that appropriating the words of those who correctly criticize NATO ("In order to avoid nuclear war, NATO must stop interfering in the war in Ukraine" and "In the interest of peace, NATO must stop undermining the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia") and Israel will produce an equally, if not stronger, backlash.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 19:22 utc | 90

So it looks like the sniffer-in-chief is throwing in 30 Abrams into the pot.

Posted by: A.L. | Jan 24 2023 19:23 utc | 91

NATO/US intends to goad Russia into depleting its ammo by using tanks as bait. Very clever and diabolical plan! /S

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jan 24 2023 19:29 utc | 92

So it looks like the sniffer-in-chief is throwing in 30 Abrams into the pot.

Posted by: A.L. | Jan 24 2023 19:23 utc | 89

Not nearly enough for a market level bid from Ukrainian scrap metal dealers. Someone will have to pay to get them towed to the yard.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 19:29 utc | 93

Test post. The filter blocked two posts of mine, one under my usual user name, the other under my alternate.

The volume of posts this morning appears to be affecting the site.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 24 2023 19:31 utc | 94

Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 18:58 utc | 73
it is truly a marvel how much USM hardware has developed the way it has simply to WASTE GAS. then by extension, for the same purpose of waste, add a bunch of techno crap whose sole point is its expense, to build, maintain, repair, replace. ahh, replace. the answer to prior problems is always more money. always. the security state is failing because it is not devouring enough resources.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 19:32 utc | 95

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:50 utc | 59

Everything that Ukraine shows with babusckas etc. is propaganda. Ukrainians are mobilized at gunpoint. Crazed nationalists filled with hate (and other assorted right groups) are the tool of choice for control by NATO.

Russia destroyed the huge stock of all NATOs ex-Warshaw pact weapons and now NATO needs to draw from the actual western countries defense stocks.

The greatest sin of your people is making the Ukrainians fight to the death with their brothers in Russia while satanically enjoying it from the side, cheering them on from your imperial seat. You are your ilk will pay dearly for this, one way or the other. Also for Yugoslavia and the destroyed lives and suffering for years you inflicted by bringing your demonic ways and means to them.

Enjoy the leftovers of your supremacist racist empire of former barbarian tribes while you can.

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 24 2023 19:35 utc | 96

no worries about the introduction of Leopards, Abrams or any other MBT as they're all inferior to Russian weapons

I very much doubt that is true. They are however designed for a different battlefield a long way from Russian borders...........and probably for desert conditions. Challenger is after all a re-design of tanks ordered by Shah of Iran - Shir-1

I agree that Western weapons are (probably) not inferior to their Russian equivalents (ie, Leopard/Challengers/Abrams vs T90s) but they are probably inferior to the Russian weapons designed to destroy them; ie, no country wants to see its "defence" champions' products destroyed on the battlefield by Russian weapons. I doubt that many Western tanks will survive a direct hit from a Kornet, for instance.

Ah, "Bernd" @53, still pushing your sophistries:

I'll reiterate. There have been to date 800+ F-35s delivered, if we combine this with the number of F-22s, that means the US has produced over 1000 fifth generation fighter jets, Russia meanwhile can't even produce enough Su-57s for one squadron (the US "aggressor" team, used to simulate J-20, has more than Russia lol)

The F-35 has 660,000 flight hours to date, it has been proven in combat conditions over Syria by Israel.

If this war has proven anything, it's that manned aircraft are largely useless if your enemy has a half decent air defence. Even the Israelis use their F35s to deliver standoff weapons... and they're not facing modern air defences.

The fact that the West has produced 1000 fifth-generation fighters is proof that the MIC is complete control of the West, not of their ability to defeat Russia.

You really are a smug simpleton, a smirking example of Dunning-Kruger in action.

Posted by: Observer | Jan 24 2023 19:35 utc | 97

Hmmm. Tanks that can be destroyed more or less upon arrival, and increased shell production that might take place over the next five years. Not the most compelling signs of invincibility.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 24 2023 19:36 utc | 98

Posted by: Günther | Jan 24 2023 19:21 utc | 86

Vergeude deine Zeit nicht an Bernd. Das ist einer vom "fruchtbaren Schoss", der den Russen noch verbal zwei verlorene Weltkriege heimzahlen will.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 19:29 utc | 91

I definitely see yet another 30 tanks getting scrapped ASAP. Reminds me of Douglas Adams' quote - after the curve reaches *0* that's somewhat of a "tough" number to come back from...

Posted by: Karl1906 | Jan 24 2023 19:37 utc | 99

@ pessimust 44

BoJo only thinks about his own ego. He never has been anything more than a Zelensky, a corrupt buffoon, placed in charge of a corrupt government. While the stygian stables are being mucked out at home and Nazi Dave Cameron is stuck in his horseless gypsy caravan being a squeaky condom, BoJo has gone to roll in shit in Ukraine while it still exists , and get photo-shopped with ZioNazis.for his legacy his pension and his lecture tours.

Posted by: Giyane | Jan 24 2023 19:39 utc | 100

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