Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 24, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation

Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my piece that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.

I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.

While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.


Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.

It is interesting that this was followed by additional government turmoil in Kiev as another senior advisor of president Zelensky, the deputy head of his office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, resigned. Additionally several deputy ministers and oblast governors were fired:

Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a "technical mistake" and claimed no money had changed hands.

The defence minister himself - Oleksii Reznikov - has been under scrutiny for the same reason.

A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:

  • Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
  • Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
  • And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson

I urge people to be careful with corruption allegations in Ukraine. These often come from the extralegal National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The bureau was setup in 2014, after the Maidan coup. It was created and controlled by the U.S. embassy. NABU was used in various power plays to remove people who the embassy disliked.

In 2020 the supreme court of Ukraine ruled that NABU was outside of the law and should not have the investigative powers it assumed. This came after NABU had investigated several supreme court judges in anti-corruption cases. That fight between two camps of power in Ukraine led to a constitutional crisis.

A year later Zelensky fired the leading supreme court judge who had written the opinion on NABU. The judge appealed the decision and the court took his side. The conflict remains unresolved. The judge fled to Austria where he is now threatened with arrest under a Ukrainian warrant.

There are many of such little reported power plays in Kiev with Zelensky moving more and more into a dictatorial role. Over time his position will become very lonely.

But in the east the battle continues and Ukraine keeps losing the war. The Telegram channel Intel Slava Z notes:

Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.

“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas"


This confirms my previous observation:

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

There are still Pentagon officials who deny the real situation:

Russian forces took control of the city of Bakhmut almost a year ago after Moscow opened a phase of the war that focused on territories in the Donbas, the far eastern corner of Ukraine comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Recent successes by Ukrainian fighters in the Bakhmut area have prompted Moscow to send in reinforcements, said the senior U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said Ukrainian troops are presently in control of Bakhmut, though Moscow claimed this week that its forces have taken control of a nearby salt-mining town, Soledar.

“Ukraine forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut,” the U.S. military official said, adding the new Russian troops are being “rushed” to the battlefield “ill trained” and “ill equipped.”

To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?

Bakhmut has never been under the Russian forces control. This was the situation near Bakhmut 6 months ago. The Russian held territory is red.


This is the current situation around Bakhmut. The city is nearly encircled. All major roads leading in and out are under Russian artillery control.


It is a big meat grinder. The German intelligence service BND says that the Ukrainian forces lose hundreds of soldiers per day in that city alone. The Russian defense ministry does not report on Bakhmut as that is Wagner's territory. But it daily reports if additional hundreds of losses on the Ukrainian side.

In a useless attempt to stop the steady drain of Ukrainian forces the 'west' is moving additional weapons into Ukraine. The U.S. wants to unlock the transfer of tanks by other countries to Ukraine by delivering parts of its own tank reserves:

The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

The White House declined to comment.
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.

U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Milley and Defense Secretary Austin have been against any tank delivery. They are afraid of the consequences of this steady mission creep. The Biden administration steadily blows through each of its own red lines. Biden had started out by declaring that the U.S. would only deliver defensive weapons. Then came HIMARS and other longer range weapons that hit targets in Russia. Delivering tanks was a red line. What will come next? Fighter planes that have no chance to defeat superior Russian air defenses?

They military are not alone in their fear. The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock:

The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.

Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose because losing in Ukraine will come with the loss of U.S. financial hegemony:

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.
Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).

Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.

And escalating it is. With ever increasing speed.

Posted by b on January 24, 2023 at 17:05 UTC | Permalink

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The President of Ukraine signed a law that strengthens the criminal liability of the military for failure to comply with orders

Law 8271, increases the criminal liability of the military for such violations:

▪️failure to comply with orders;
▪️ escape from the battlefield, from the military unit;
▪️ Refusal to act with weapons.

This was announced by the People's Deputy Zheleznyak.

As historians later point out, "it was a fatal decision of the president, after which everything only got worse." But then - later, and now such documents can only emphasize the difficult situation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Remember all the MSM headlines that Russian army has low morale and massive desertion rates and roadblocks set up inside St. Petersburg kidnapping random men? Actually it was Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 24 2023 23:55 utc | 201

@ unimperator | Jan 24 2023 23:55 utc | 204

it is indeed the opposite of what they are telling us unimperator... oh well...

Posted by: james | Jan 24 2023 23:57 utc | 202

OohCanada | Jan 24 2023 23:50 utc | 200

it is dozens of tanks surrounded by hundreds of bradleys...

the tank is a smoking target without supporting infantry and ifv's to keep opfor infantry off them.

and air cover!

the logistics tail for leopard is unknown, the logistics tail for bradley and abrams is massive.

lakes of fuel.... warehouses of spare parts, and battalions of high tech technicians!

and ammunition not used on t-72's or other ukronazi weapons!

you don't just drive them into bakhmut and hand over keys.

iraqi abrams ended up blown up by isis!

Posted by: paddy | Jan 24 2023 23:59 utc | 203

The White House is expected to make an announcement Wednesday on providing M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, a U.S. government official confirmed. Abrams might be in the next package, probably w/o a delivery date is my guess.
The M1 Abrams announcement comes after Defense officials repeatedly said the tanks are too complex, too hard to maintain, and too thirsty for jet fuel for their turbine engines to benefit Ukraine military. Generals Austin and Milley won't be happy about the Biden ambush, so I don't see the tanks being issued soon. But as b suggests one never knows with these clowns: "The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it."

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 0:06 utc | 204

BTW anyone believing the number regarding tanks, 12 of these from UK, 10 of those from Germany, 50 from Poland etc and whatever, and making light of it, has simply not been paying attention, and after a year of this western false coy and hesitant game are never going to get it at this point.

Whatever the promised, seemingly laughable, inadequate numbers given are the foot in the door just like the HIMARS, M777s, and all the other shit NATO has poured in. Once the tank foot is in the door expect the entire house to be rolled over. By spring there will either be hundreds of Leopards and Abrams in UK driven by NATO crews or the Pentagon and NATO are going to go home and this tank shit is actually just one last bad bet, on bad hand, on a bad night at the casino. We will see.

And, another fallacy here is the razzing on wunderwaffen, the western military people that matter know the limitations of this stuff, they know these are not wunderwaffles and they don't care, it just needs to be good enough. Good enough to kill and maim RF troops and civilians, slow their advance and push them back to regain momentum for Ukraine and reboot Plan A to wear out Russia. If that fails, then at that point the USA and EU will decide to escalate more, or walk away whistling, or turn on each other, or sue for peace, or whatever new mad plan they pull out of their ass. But a whole lot of tanks and APCs are coming.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 0:10 utc | 205

The Leopard II’s will have a minimal impact on the battlefield, but I wonder what effect, seeing German armour back in Ukraine, will have on the Russian recruitment rates.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 25 2023 0:10 utc | 206

Re: Posted by: Sword | Jan 24 2023 18:00 utc | 25

If Russian soldiers don’t know what they’re fighting for presumably it’s because they haven’t been told the firm objectives.

Fighting for the survival of the Russian Federation is a very nebulous concept - what are the actual on the ground targets or objectives?!?

Is it the full liberation of Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk & Zaporizhzhia?

Is it the full liberation of Donbas? Including the parts in Kharkiv?

Is it the partial liberation of the Donbas? Not including parts of the Donbas in Kharkiv?

Is it only the partial liberation of the oblasts Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk & Luhansk - not including Zaporizhzhia City? Not including Kherson on the Western side of the Dnieper?

What about Poltava, Sumy & Chernihiv?

What about Nikolaev & Odessa?!?

What about this, that and many other things?

No one - really no one - and least of all the troops apparently - have any idea what the hard nosed targets and objectives on the ground of this SMO actually are!

Posted by: Julian | Jan 25 2023 0:10 utc | 207

The whole tank thing is being blown way out of proportion. Not likely to change anything except Russia's patience. The West thinks too highly of itself and doesn't really understand how Russians perceive war, thus the preoccupation with shiny objects.

These things...unless they are accompanied by a metric buttload of other stuff, they're just expensive lawn ornaments.
Who's crewing them? Who's going to provide top cover? Who's going to keep them supplied? For that matter how in heck are they getting them into the Ukraine to begin with? It's not like they're incon-fucking-spicuous

Posted by: liveload | Jan 25 2023 0:11 utc | 208

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 18:15 utc | 39 "Any NATO MBT entering Ukraine will die from Hermes missiles or other ordinance; they're inferior, it's really that simple."

Hundreds NATO MBTs have already entered Ukraine. Numerous NATO countries have sent them. In addition countries like Morocco have sent some.

Do you mean Western manufactured MBTs from NATO countries?

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:13 utc | 209

Unimperator @ 204, James @ 205:

The entire MSM reporting of Russia's SMO in Ukraine since February 2022 deliberately confuses what the Russians and Ukrainians do. The reporting is George Orwell / 1984 Newspeak taken to another, more insane level where not only black is white and war is peace but the MSM pretends black was never black in the first place.

When Ukraine commits atrocities or mistreats soldiers and POWs, those atrocities are instead blamed on Russia. When Ukrainian missiles hit residential buildings, shopping malls or railway stations in Ukrainian cities, those missiles become Russian.

Likewise, when the Russians decide off their own bat to leave Kherson (the city) and the Ukrainians swarm in, the entire event is hailed as a victory for Ukraine in regaining Kherson (the oblast) when in fact the Ukrainians only currently hold a small part of Kherson (the oblast) that happens to include Kherson (the city).

Using and distorting facts and real events to create a fictitious lying narrative has been the mainstay of Western MSM reporting with regard to Ukraine and Russia since the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991.

Posted by: Jen | Jan 25 2023 0:14 utc | 210

The US producing 500% of its current artillery shell manufacture would not be enough to replace what Ukraine has officially been given in a full year of production. That’s especially if the 300,000 from stocks in Israel is in addition to the reported shipments.

I wish us luck, mostly because the US needs to think about making things again. We’re not great at making things or making them efficiently or making them with our own raw materials. But I’ll be surprised if we manage to up artillery ammunition production by 500%. Contracts signed and even some money spent we’ll do right away. Actually making shells is another thing. And we’ll hit $1T on defense sooner rather than later this way.

Posted by: Lex | Jan 25 2023 0:15 utc | 211

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 0:10 utc | 209 "Whatever the promised, seemingly laughable, inadequate numbers given are the foot in the door just like the HIMARS, M777s, and all the other shit NATO has poured in"

The war is still going on. How long would Ukraine have lasted in nothing had been sent?

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:15 utc | 212

@paddy #206

You can say the same thing about Russian gear. It's all a target. Russia built their army better and it seems way tougher than Nato expected. Their strategic moves are greasy.. something else Nato seems to be way behind with. The problem is Nato has more gear more money and zero concern for the 600 000 to 800 000 fighting Ukies they have left. Russia is in a serious battle.

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 25 2023 0:21 utc | 213

@Julian | Jan 25 2023 0:10 utc | 211
Soldiers going into battle don't need to know all the high-level stuff you're mentioning. It's what's the objective today and how can I best do my duties along with my buddies who are going with me, while staying alive and accomplishing the mission. . . And I'm just curious, how do you know what the Russian soldiers have been told?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 0:22 utc | 214

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 19:54 utc | 107

Depends on how far away the target is. But meaningless if you are thinking nuclear weapons as it has been long assumed in a nuclear war that Washington DC would be gone before the US president even got the phone call that (back in the day) that depressed trajectory SLBMs fired from Soviet SSBNs where on the way. The US command and control is built around the assumption the decision makers that most people think of will be gone. Its a bonus if they are around and in communication but its assumed that will be unlikely.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:23 utc | 215

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 20:42 utc | 128 "The claim that "Getting a weapon quality lock is a different matter" is just another common kind of NATO propaganda"

No difference? If so the Russians have wasted an enormous amount of money on building surveillance radars and fire control radars.

Low frequency radars can detect stealthier aircraft at longer distances but with a more vague location. Higher frequency radars can detect them at shorter distances with a more precise location. (Naturally this depends on what frequency the stealth is optimized for)

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:33 utc | 216

Posted by: jpc | Jan 24 2023 23:15 utc | 187 "And Russia has plenty of weapons to incapacitate those fields and motorway sections that double as airfields."

So does NATO, so lets all hope it doesn't get to that point.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:34 utc | 217

By Jingo, here finally come the german tanks. My predictions for next steps: germany will establish their own PMC ("Beethoven"? "Mendelssohn-Bartholdy"?) because none of the new german youth have the faintest interest in joining the "german" army. A private action fun and war company may seem more attractive to those guys. Then the german weapons can be manned with "german" crews.

Posted by: Grasdackel | Jan 24 2023 21:54 utc | 158

Yep, more and more soldiers from NATO countries will be fighting in Ukraine under some sort of mercenary setup, which is a good thing for Russia. It is weird seeing NATO make such a big mistake, but understandable given their goals of conquering Russia without triggering a nuclear war.

There are already many thousand NATO troops in Ukraine under various guises, and they have taken significant casualties. The numbers aren't so high that they can't be hidden to some degree by a compliant (fully owned) media.

Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 25 2023 0:37 utc | 218

LOL The best example one can think of for "too little, too late"...Anyone who thinks this war is going past the end of this year - if not the end of summer - is delusional.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 24 2023 23:14 utc | 186

Thanks for expanding on my comment. I omitted the /s tag after "Just in Time delivery" Thought it self-evident given the stated time frame on the logistics.

Do you really see the UKR surrendering in the next 6 months before Odessa Oblast joins the RF? Odessa can not be left on the table for a NATO naval base on the Black Sea. Bringing to justice the criminals involved in the burning of the Union Building is an imperative. Deserving of a stand-alone Nuremberg trial.

+ + + + +

2023 Oscar nominees announced. Is Ze - the piano-player - included?

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 25 2023 0:38 utc | 219

"Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 18:49 utc | 58 ""massive jamming of US/NATO communications" "shootdown of US satellites" "Is Macgregor right?"

The Russians could try jamming the communctions but it would be difficult to completely do that. Some communications likely goes up to satellites and then down to earth outside of Ukraine and into Ukraine on fiber optic lines.

As to shooting down US satellites: Not likely. The US would likely start shooting down the Russian satellites in response.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:44 utc | 220

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 24 2023 23:14 utc | 186 Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 25 2023 0:38 utc | 224

Who would have thought the war would have gone on this long? About day 330 days so far.

The other day someone here guessed maybe 2 more years. So 6 to 9 months is the short end that I have seen lately here.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:48 utc | 221

Haassaan | Jan 25 2023 0:37 utc | 223
>…The Germans will establish their own celebrity PMC.
>… Crowdsourcing the naming rights?
Well, the Russians culturally appropriated Mozart.
Only fair the Germans take Rachmaninov.
Especially appropriate, as he spent more years in the U$, post Revolutionary 1917, than in Russia.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 0:48 utc | 222

OohCanada @ 217

The problem is Nato has more gear more money and zero concern for the 600 000 to 800 000 fighting Ukies they have left. Russia is in a serious battle.

Somehow, I'm certain NATO has just as little concern for the rest of the EU's great unwashed. When the time comes we will all be Ukrainians.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 0:52 utc | 223

More attentive reading…my comment should have cited
Grasdackel | Jan 24 2023 21:54 utc | 158
Muh. Just reaching for a bit of levity to balance with my daily WW3 dispatches.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 0:52 utc | 224

Don Bacon with the following citation:

Defense officials repeatedly said the tanks are too complex, too hard to maintain, and too thirsty for jet fuel for their turbine engines to benefit Ukraine military

If that's the case, then those tanks are of no benefit to any military and ought to be scraped so new ones that are better can take their place. But no replacements are planned! Thus, NATO has no battle worthy tanks.

Bill Smith @213--

No. Very few if any NATO MBTs have entered Ukraine. What's been donated was Soviet designed MBTs provided to Warsaw Treaty Nations and to others outside it. The vast majority of all that kit is now scrap, which is why the Ukies are begging for more so they can kill more of their countrymen at the behest of NATO. You are aware that Russia is performing an R2P based on the proven genocide being dealt to Donbas residents that's 100% legal whereas NATO is the force performing and provoking said genocide which is an act of aggressive war.

Again, all trolls supporting NATO are abetting Genocide and are thus no different from Nazis. Why they get entertained is beyond me. The "Black Marias" of The Gulag are clearly in the employ of the Ukronazis and NATO and follow a recent British method known as the Press Gang. And the trolls clearly support that too. The conclusion ought to be clear: Trolls are Anti-Human like those that employ them.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 25 2023 0:53 utc | 225

Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:15 utc | 216
>…”How long would Ukraine have lasted in nothing had been sent?”
My hand, raised and waving from the middle back row.
I know the answer.
Ukraine wanted negotiations with Russia in April.
That’s when it would have ended without western interference.
And that’s why Russia/Putin now will only negotiate with the U$.
Pottery barn rules. You break it. You own it.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 0:58 utc | 226

Today in Propaganda - MoA Edition

Hello students!

Yesterday in TIP - MoA edition, the laughable idea that Ukraine (a country with 0 nuclear warheads...having given what they had to Russia in 1992) posed a "threat" to Russia (a country with 5000 nuclear warheads) was destroyed and put to rest. Of course, MoA commenters, not willing to give up their hard fought "victim" status continued to insist that Russia was the victim of a Western plot and forced Putin to invade, somehow.

Today we will address the "bio-labs" in Ukraine.

You know, the bio-labs that were built by Russia during the Cold War. The Bioweapons Treaty of 1973 was brought between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Before the ink was dry on those signatures, the Soviet Union built a massive, illicit biological weapons empire. Read the autobiography of Ken Alibekov, who ran "Biopreparat". Biopreparat was making anthrax, and was making biological weapons all through the ’70s and ’80s, with leaks and accidents. They were using the territory of Ukraine.

Fast forward to the 1990s, Ukraine is now an independent country, and they have these legacy Soviet bio-warfare labs. Ukraine invited scientists to find out what the Soviets were doing in these labs? To create defensive technologies. Could these technologies end up in the hands of Al-Qaeda or other actors? Do you really believe the crude Russian propaganda that the US building biological weapons in Ukraine to deploy against Russia? Remember, this is all now unclassified.

So, sorry to burst another MoA cherished ballon of Russian propaganda.

Ta ta losers.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 25 2023 1:00 utc | 227

Two thoughts. We have a lot of F-35s. It’s like buying a free pass, a please leave us alone pass.

And Ukrainian gene pool is a soup like anywhere else, including Mongolian DNA.

Posted by: Inki | Jan 25 2023 1:01 utc | 228

@ Likklemore re Oscars:

I’m sure elensky will appear remotely. The shoo-in for Best Documentary, however, is a Navalny hagiography.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 25 2023 1:02 utc | 229

your panties all up in a twist over bern and can't laugh at the clown? That means you been bern'd LOL

I see those posts as a comedy show that is making me laugh. And Laughter is good medicine.

Anyway, as I've been saying, be prepared to be surprised! I can always count on the Russians for 'pleasant' surprises.

Posted by: nathan in WA US | Jan 25 2023 1:05 utc | 230

@K. 220
Specially 4 U.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 1:06 utc | 231

I first read about NABU during the Biden/Burisma scandal. with the Orwellian "Anti-Corruption" moniker it was plopped into the middle of things to oversee(spy?) everything and make sure it was going the way DC wanted. It was NABU who wanted Shokin fired. it should be busted up, changing of the guards or something.
Posted by: annie | Jan 24 2023 17:45 utc | 11

annie, I agree with you about the Biden/Burisma scandal and the NABA. I think NABA was Obama/Biden's invention to, in part, hide Hunter Biden's activities with Burisma and to remove any political and judical opposition to the 2014 coup and US penetration of the Ukrainian government and the AFU.

In my view the NABA was Biden's big foot on the neck of Ukraine politicians and Judicial Officials who did not tow the US line. Hillary Clinton was supposed to use it for the same reason as well, but she lost the election. So, Poroshenko and the Neo-Nazis used it during the Trump era.

Zelensky inherited it when he was elected, but I suspect he was too naive to know how to use it effectively, but I suspect that the CIA was in close contact all during Trump's presidency, but not necessarily for Trumps benefit.

Joe Biden and the CIA resumed control after Biden was elected as president and used it in his lead up to the proxy war with Russia. Of course, much of this is only speculation but it fits like a glove.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 25 2023 1:07 utc | 232

I heard zElensky is going live on zoom tomorrow at the US Best in Show Canine Dog Show. He will beg for more wepons.

Posted by: Comandante | Jan 25 2023 1:12 utc | 233

The west is DEFINITELY scaping the bottom of the barrel dude. That's why they have been buying old shid from evrybody and donating it to 404. Russia has WAY more high-tech war equipment then anybody. End of....

Posted by: safe | Jan 25 2023 1:14 utc | 234

Looks like Switzerland, while it will not send weapons to Ukraine directly, will allow others to send weapons they got from Switzerland.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 1:16 utc | 235

I heard zElensky is going live on zoom tomorrow at the US Best in Show Canine Dog Show. He will beg for more wepons.

Posted by: Comandante | Jan 25 2023 1:12 utc | 238

War dogs, that will be a game changer.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 25 2023 1:17 utc | 236

@ Paul Spencer, #3

I read On the Beach in 9th grade 45 or so years ago. I don't think I ever saw the entire movie. It was an interesting book but for late 1950s nuclear war fiction, I liked Alas Babylon better. I believe it was closer to what actually would happen. Survivalists have more hope than most. But you do you.,_Babylon

P.S. The U.S. sub in One the Beach, the USS Scorpion, actually sunk in the Atlantic in the late 1960s with all hands lost...

Posted by: DakotaRog | Jan 25 2023 1:22 utc | 237

Soon we will hear more suggestions about a 'cease fire line' and 'benevolent Polish occupation' of the Galician nazi homelands of Ukraine. In Alice's Wonderland this might be considered acceptable.

I know governments are prone to mighty stupid blunders but Russia has had hers back in the 90's. They recently set out the principles for an initial peace back on 12 December 2021 as I recall and that involves partial NATO regression to its 1993 (?) borders.

I assume that the USA will be sufficiently blundering, hateful, spiteful and obsessive to continue this disgrace to the last living Ukrainian and then the last living Pole, and then so on.

So might Russia.

As the war drags on and we encounter the abject capitulation of Ukraine to its defeat and the $US bleeds its superiority to death what will Poland do? I believe it is all p!ss and wind and merely delights in killing Ruskies while it blissfully ignores the historical fact that it was Russia that put an end to the nazi Poles, Germans and Banderites raping its country and murdering Polish and millions of other european citizens in its extermination camps in WW2.

Note the red spots.

Short term memory is one of the most appalling human malfunctions. It leads us to be dominated by insane humans and results in war and our impoverishment. To some extent it can be remedied through education and yet it is notably absent and distorted in most curriculum.

So, on that note I introduce this observation by Larry Johnson at soanar21.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 1:27 utc | 238

"All other targets will be hit with air bursts, which have a wider destruction radius BUT PRODUCE NO FALLOUT. Also, if there’s nothing of military value near where you live, you will not get nuked."
Posted by: Lucky Joestar | Jan 24 2023 22:12 utc | 169


"Truth is the aim of belief; falsity is a fault. People need the truth about the world in order to thrive. Truth is important. Believing what is not true is apt to spoil people’s plans and may even cost them their lives."


a. Worldwide Fallout. After an air burst the fission products, unfissioned nuclear material, and weapon residues which have been vaporized by the heat of the fireball will condense into a fine suspension of very small particles 0.01 to 20 micrometers in diameter. These particles may be quickly drawn up into the stratosphere, particularly so if the explosive yield exceeds 10 Kt. They will then be dispersed by atmospheric winds and will gradually settle to the earth's surface after weeks, months, and even years as worldwide fallout. The radiobiological hazard of worldwide fallout is essentially a long-term one due to the potential accumulation of long-lived radioisotopes, such as strontium-90 and cesium-137, in the body as a result of ingestion of foods which had incorporated these radioactive materials. This hazard is much less serious than those which are associated with local fallout and, therefore, is not discussed at length in this publication. Local fallout is of much greater immediate operational concern.


Sons of the Pioneers - Old Man Atom

Country Joe & The Fish - The Bomb Song / Thought Dream

Posted by: deliriumtremens | Jan 25 2023 1:29 utc | 239

The machinations in Kiev are wild and huge. It’s a very dangerous game that apparently everyone is playing. Between the firings, resignations and the rash of forced mobilization videos, I think we have to assume that Ukraine could fracture internally at any time. That’s not saying it will fracture. Is the US effectively taking over the country? Looks like that might be the case. There is more and more media chatter about what Ukraine should do, in opposition to what it is doing.

But it is a corner Biden’s painted the US into. Not easy to get out of this corner and he’s got limited time to turn it around. Kievan political machinations won’t actually be good for effective governance and they’ll cost time. They won’t produce less corrupt or more competent officials either. Just different. If Bakhmut goes as bad as it could go at this point things may get ugly.

Posted by: Lex | Jan 25 2023 1:30 utc | 240

Pepe Escobar
23 Jan at 1:53 pm

The key is who will dominate the battlefield using EW. If the Empire does not, then forget about 404. The Empire is at TOTAL WAR with Russia - way beyond Hybrid - but the "leadership" are a bunch of cowards; they use 404 as auxiliaries. Ukrainians have NOTHING to say about ANYTHING.

The major Kiev failure was EW. The snail Russian offensive against the network of bunkers using The Mincing Machine avoided EW as at Bakhmut.

After Bakhmut and the rest, the Russians will most certainly break out into the open - where tank warfare takes over where EW comes into play. That is why the Pentagon is frantically working on sending in tanks and also frantically working on EW battle supremacy.

The Americans are terrified of having their defensive missiles incapacitated; well, they are not that good anyway.

If Russia wins the EW battle, and maintains control of the sky, then the tank armies of Russia may replicate Panzer General Guderian's encirclements of WWII. That will be quite something to watch.

Interesting point about the open fields that come after the Donbas. Maybe what we are witnessing with the present NATO tank fiesta is to hurriedly get enough heavy equipment for the Ukrainians to stall the Russians after Bahkmut falls? A stop gap to buy time for NATO to regroup and replan in spring?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 1:33 utc | 241

@245 For Ukraine to fracture some in the regime would publicly have to admit defeat. Meanwhile some still think the cavalry is coming.

Posted by: dh | Jan 25 2023 1:33 utc | 242

RE length of the war:

Russia has escalation dominance, the war will end:

1.) When the "West" gives up,
2.) When the Russians want it to end,
3.) When somebody gets spooked/does something stupid/shoots off a nuke.

The USA could provoke the war, make it happen, and they did, but it can't force the Russians to stop it.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 25 2023 1:38 utc | 243

I have seen some articles on the new Russian hypersonic missile armed Frigate, Adm. Gorshkov (sp?)
Everyone seems to be watching the frigate hand, but what is the other hand up to? Could the sailing of that Frigate be some kind of deception for something else the West isn’t looking for?

Second post here, and as an American I advocate leaving Russia the hell alone. Apparently it’s not enough for the world to chew each others tails off little by little, we must speed headlong into the abyss all at once.


Good day all.

Posted by: Fudup | Jan 25 2023 1:40 utc | 244

Wow i have learnt so much today! Nuclear bombs are fine (Lucky Joestar | Jan 24 2023 22:12 utc | 169- if there’s nothing of military value near where you live, you will not get nuked) and no-one in the West lives in poverty and squalor (Cato the Uncensored | Jan 24 2023 23:24 utc | 189). Plus i found out that Julian Macfarlane lives alone with two cats. Fuck- that is depressing.
Jazus fucka goat
Pour me another cherry vodka.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 1:41 utc | 245

@249 "Second post here, and as an American I advocate leaving Russia the hell alone."

Good for you. Unfortunately there are many in the US administration who would call that appeasement. Who votes them in?

Posted by: dh | Jan 25 2023 1:45 utc | 246

Since it's topical and some at the bar are discussing it, is a good resource on the Democrats, neocons and Bidens activities pertaining to that country.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 1:46 utc | 247

I am respectful of this forum and will not use ....the descriptive expletive.

Arming Ukraine a 'big business' opportunity – Zelensky

Posted by: Likkle | Jan 25 2023 1:51 utc | 248

i found out that Julian Macfarlane lives alone with two cats. Fuck- that is depressing.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 1:41 utc | 250

Hey, I live alone with two cats.

Post 169 is especially hilarious.

Post 189 is poorly worded, but there is a shred of truth there. The West as a whole is incredibly soft and stupid. There is more poverty and squaller in the West than in Russia, but the West has a larger percentage of spoiled people disconnected from physical reality who are largely inept, and they will suffer immensely in the case of nuclear war.

Well, we all will suffer immensely, except those lucky enough to live in cities and military bases close enough to the blast sites to be instantly vaporized, but that is only around 10-15 percent of the population. The rest of us will die slowly of starvation or radiation sickness.

Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 25 2023 1:53 utc | 249

Has anyone linked to The Saker today? If so I missed it. It is good.
Tactics without Strategy is the Noise Before Defeat

Posted by: bevin | Jan 25 2023 1:54 utc | 250

Tanks on ontrack in Kansas

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 1:57 utc | 251

thanks to karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 21:01 utc | 138 and - RSH / CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 24 2023 21:17 utc | 143

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 25 2023 1:57 utc | 252

@ Jen | Jan 25 2023 0:14 utc | 214

i fully concur.. thanks for articulating all that! up is down and down is up.. welcome to orwells world 2023..

Posted by: james | Jan 25 2023 1:58 utc | 253

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 25 2023 1:00 utc | 232

As usual you're an ill-informed idiot. Soviet era bioweapons labs, mkay. Betcha don't even know what CH2MHill is or about all the contracts that they and other MIC general contractors have received to build....wait for it....NEW bio-labs in Ukraine for which secret clearance in the form of a DoD/Pentagon DD-254 is required to gain access, hmmm.... (from 2018, mind you - so clearly it's just "Putin propaganda to distract from "his invasion"/sarc)

Incidentally, the same Bulgarian journalist has a history of exposing Pentagon programs around Iran, Russia and Syria:

This is not the first time that Gaytandzhieva is exposing the US secret military programs. Last summer, she published a bombshell report which found that an Azerbaijan state airline company was regularly transporting tons of cheap Bulgarian and East European weaponry to Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Turkey, under diplomatic cover as part of the CIA covert program. These weapons were found inside underground terrorist warehouses belonging to Al Nusra Front, Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria designated as a terrorist organization by the UN. The US modus operandi was the same: using bases in the satellite countries, abuse of diplomatic channels, and dirty politics directed against Russia, Iran and Syria.

Oh, and the labs that were built under Obama:

Nah, these weren't "Soviet era" laboratories, they ARE new construction funded in large part by US taxpayers like me, and probably you too.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 2:02 utc | 254

Likkle | Jan 25 2023 1:51 utc | 253
Apologies for swearing.

Haassaan | Jan 25 2023 1:53 utc | 254
nothing personal against cat lovers. Let’s hope the Russians are more intelligent than Americans. Perhaps there is too much emphasis on nukes. By 1973, the U.S. military had dropped 4.6 million tons of bombs on Vietnam, destroying most of the towns and villages and killing an estimated 2 million Vietnamese people.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 2:03 utc | 255

re: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:23 utc | 219

you wrote:
"The US command and control is built around the assumption the decision makers that most people think of will be gone. Its a bonus if they are around and in communication but its assumed that will be unlikely."

I am interested in any links/references you can provide that discusses this. I am familiar with the matter of pre-delegation of authority to launch being given to various high-ranking military officials (I don't think much is written on this because obviously who gets this ability is highly classified).

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 25 2023 2:03 utc | 256

My post was truncated.

Arming Ukraine a 'big business' opportunity – Zelensky

In the backrooms.. Freeland said as much at the WEF good for global growth

The Ukrainian leader touted ties to Blackrock, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in another weapons plea

[.]Kiev is already working with some giants of the finance and military industry, offering “big business” opportunities to any American company interested in working there, President Vladimir Zelensky has boasted in a video message to an association of US enterprises.

Addressing the National Association of State Chambers (NASC) meeting in Boca Raton, Florida on Monday, Zelensky argued that “American business can become the locomotive that will once again push forward global economic growth.”

“We have already managed to attract attention and have cooperation with such giants of international financial and investment world as Blackrock, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs,” Zelensky said. “Such American brands as Starlink or Westinghouse have already become a part of our Ukrainian Way.”

According to Zelensky, “everyone can become a big business by working with Ukraine, in all sectors: from weapons and defense to construction, from communication to agriculture, from transport to IT, from banks to medicine.”[.]

He also lavished praise on the weapons the US has showered upon Kiev.

“Your brilliant defense systems, such as HIMARS or Bradleys, are already uniting our history of freedom with your enterprises. We are waiting for Patriots. We are looking closely at Abrams. Thousands of such examples are possible,” Zelensky said in the video.[.](original emphasis)

Big business for the Chosen. What of the thousands who will never call home and the displaced millions?

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 25 2023 2:04 utc | 257

Comandante | Jan 25 2023 1:12 utc | 238
>…”zElensky is going live on zoom tomorrow at the US Best in Show Canine Dog Show”….
To live in a timeline where I have absolutely no idea if that is fact or satire

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 2:06 utc | 258

More on US funded and operated bio weapons labs in Ukraine and elsewhere on the Russian periphery.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 2:07 utc | 259

Bevin my dear lad @164

Seems as if you are not quite yet up to snuff when it regards those who cower behind the curtain, but nefariously control the entirety of the Western world via their lordship over the central banking scheme.

Surely you are somewhat aware of the inconceivable powers held by those who hold the primary international purse-strings. As a Brit, you need not my instruction as to City of London and of its primary controlling interest, a private bank which has enjoyed primary ownership of the glorious BoE since 1815.

The number of folks right across the globe who are daily addressed by Russell Brand, a very insightful and entertaining young chap who maintains a Cockney inspired accent, do tend to be a bit more up to speed on these matters than you with your insipid and jocular attempt to challenge my information via a somewhat pedantic form of humour.

May I kindly suggest that you read (it is available as an E-book over Amazon, I understand) "The Ruling Elite" by one Deanna Spingola. It is extremely well researched, indexed, footnoted and all of that. As there appears to be a relative Black Hole in your depth of understanding; I'm quite confident that a bright young chap like yourself will emerge from such a definitive volume as a highly informed human being, ready to take on those undergirding powers that be (and who prefer to remain as anonymous as possible).

So carry on, Old Boy, with the cognomen of Aneurin, or however that's properly spelt.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 2:10 utc | 260

@249 "Second post here, and as an American I advocate leaving Russia the hell alone."
What are you?
Sumkinda putinpussypuppet???

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 2:10 utc | 261

Posted by: K | Jan 25 2023 0:30 utc | 220

Please take this f'ing crap to the open thread.

Posted by: morongobill | Jan 25 2023 2:11 utc | 262

At risk of sounding tedious, here is a list of actual contracts granted to US companies to build various biological research laboratories around Russia:

Here are some of the documents:">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">">

Black & Veatch, a rather large MIC contractor figures prominently in the archives. One can also research their unsavory doings in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 2:11 utc | 263

Apologies - I didn't do anything out of the ordinary on that previous post, but somehow duplicate text showed up for each link.

b, I don't have any problem for you to delete if it's too unbecoming to look at.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 2:12 utc | 264

olaf22 #250

"Pour me another cherry vodka."

It will be my pleasure but before you finish the first read this:

The Most Egregious Mistake

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.

What then is this ‘Great Surprise’ – the almost completely unforeseen event of recent geo-politics that has so shaken U.S. expectations, and which takes the world to the precipice?

It is, in a word, Resilience. The Resilience displayed by the Russian economy after the West had committed the entire weight of its financial resources to crushing Russia. The West bore down on Russia in every conceivable way – via financial, cultural and psychological war – and with real military war as the follow-through.

Yet, Russia has survived, and survived relatively handsomely. It is doing ‘okay’ – maybe better, even, than many Russia insiders were expecting. The ‘Anglo’ Intelligence services however, had assured EU leaders not to worry; it’s ‘slam dunk’; Putin cannot possibly survive. Rapid financial and political collapse, they promised, was certain under the tsunami of western sanctions.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 2:12 utc | 265

Anyway, Artemovsk/Bakhmut is now almost encircled/cut off- 3 out 5 roads now controlled by Russian/Donbass/Wagner/Chechnyans.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 2:14 utc | 266

Ed | Jan 25 2023 1:07 utc | 237
“…> This is only speculation.”
Nope. Your post is accurate and validated by Joe’s own words…. When he boasted of having the Ukrainian Chief Prosecutor sacked.
What was the Chief Prosecutor investigating?
Hunter and Burisma.
I’m feeling lazy so I won’t look for the clip of Joe on stage boasting he threatened Ukraine to withhold $1billion in aid/ loan tranche if the prosecutor wasn’t sacked before he departed the country in 6 hours.
If you want to find it now, perhaps use yandex …. It may or may not still be on yt.
He was so proud, he also included the anecdote in his book.
And. The prosecutor was indeed sacked while Joe was in Ukraine. And Ukraine has acknowledged this.
It’s not an ole Uncle Joe recollection.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 2:21 utc | 267

uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 2:12 utc | 270
ah yes that has cheered me up, thankyou. I hear that Russia is selling even more oil to USA, via India, and at a better price, with still 2 weeks before the big ban. (Brent is up to 88.3) so Europe is even more doomed.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 2:24 utc | 268

@ Melaleuca, # 256

The U.S Army 1st Infantry Division (1st ID) is located at Ft. Riley, Kansas. Somebody on that Twitter post said they were heading for Ft. Irwin out in the California Mojave Desert. Maybe, maybe not. If the train w as heading west, yeah probably to Cali land, if east or south (closest ports would be in the western Southern Gulf), maybe somewhere east of Kansas...

Scroll down tot he "Order of Battle" of what's all in the 1st ID.

The difference between an armored battalion and an armored cavalry squadron in the U.S. Army

"A tank battalion will be a “pure” battalion of 3–4 tank companies with a total of 40–60 tanks.

A US Army Armored Cavalry Squadron will typically have 3 combined arms cavalry troops with a mix of scouts, tanks and mortars, a most also have a full tank company of 13–17 tanks.

Back in the day (before the Army modularized) a tank battalion had either 44 or 58 tanks (depending on the number of companies (3 or 4) plus a scout platoon of 6 Bradleys and a mortar platoon of 4 120mm mortars.

At that same time, an armored cavalry squadron had a total of 42 tanks (split between the 3 cavalry troops , the tank company and the HQs), 40 Bradleys (in the three cavalry troops and the HQs) and 6 120mm mortars (2 in each cavalry troop)."

Posted by: DakotaRog | Jan 25 2023 2:29 utc | 269

Kupkee @188

Indeed, the Studebaker 6x6 was somewhat of a game-changer for the Russians, With its revolutionary six-wheel drive, that hauler allowed for the relatively rapid advances of the Red Army. Like most European nations, the Germans were stuck quite literally in muddy and snowy conditions. Their supply chain, once beyond railroad connexions was often so flummoxed, that they frequently had to resort to horses, mules and even oxen.

Rather late in the war Heinrich Himmler of all people, offered the Americans 30 genuine, living Jews for a single Studebaker. His offer was totally snubbed while Russian logistical tails kept rumbling along.

Another Lend-Lease offering which was actually prized by the Russians was nothing other than those tins of Hormel Spam, an Austin, Minnesota product of Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota hog farmers. As a high protein, all meat, frost recoverable entity in a tin, Spam was produced and sent in vast quantities...making American soldiers a bit envious if they happened to hear about it.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 2:38 utc | 270

Posted by: K | Jan 25 2023 0:30 utc | 220
Please take this f'ing crap to the open thread.

Posted by: morongobill | Jan 25 2023 2:11 utc | 267

It's a pity this blog allows for different posters using the same name. K @220 and @207 These posts are not from me, the K who posts regularly.
Oh well I probably don't post enough for anyone to notice the difference.

Posted by: K | Jan 25 2023 2:39 utc | 271

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 19:48 utc | 103
"Mexicans from all over south America, the Caribbean, middle east, etc., will continue to invade our country until we point enough guns at them."

[Ed] Mexicans come from Mexico, not South America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, etc.

"Same thing with Russia and Ukraine imbroglio: more money, more weapons. How hard is that to understand?
more money + more weapons = success."

[Ed] And just exactly what does "success" look like to you in the "imbroglio"? A NAZI concentration camp for Russian speaking people?

"Gee, it's like we could almost write a simple equation explaining capitalism and its relation to social phenomena."

[Ed] Great idea, a simple example of a social phenomenon would be how a US imperialist military and economic foreign policy creates refugees from all around the world, even from Mexico. I think you're on to something rjb1.5.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 25 2023 2:42 utc | 272

According to news reports, the Admiral Gorshkov with its super-missiles has deviated course to the western hemisphere perhaps Bermuda, an old British outpost but now just another UK territory like Canada and Oz.
But I differ, I suspect that the Admiral might be a Havana visitor. What a slap in the US face that would be! Get their attention off tanks, for sure. . . . Cuban Missile Crisis II.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 2:46 utc | 273

OohCanada @200

Not to fret. Russia can produce 152MM's and whole barrages of rockets than the U$$A, Canuckistan and their fellow WEF stooge nations can produce jets, Bradleys and various forms of armored vehicles. At the sometimes rate of one projectile eliminates one vehicle or aircraft Russia will have plenty to spare for Ukie and Polak infantry.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 2:47 utc | 274

Posted by: nathan in WA US | Jan 25 2023 1:05 utc | 235
"Anyway, as I've been saying, be prepared to be surprised! I can always count on the Russians for 'pleasant' surprises."

Mark my words, General McGregor will also be surprised with what the Russians will do next...

Posted by: nathan in WA US | Jan 25 2023 2:51 utc | 275

Opport Knock, Knock, Knocks @203

Firstly, I really need to ask, since you are so conversant with Yiddischer pilpul, honestly now, do you happen to have a dog in that fight, in league with your enamorate?

It is the general understanding of most valid posters that each and every intel agency in the world has at least one observer, watcher, or company troll carefully monitoring MoA...even more so than the ones constantly blathering on Unz.

Your postings have aroused my suspicions for some time now. True you have posted here longer than myself. Well, I can attest that I graduated to this site from heavy engagement in the trenches of the UR.

So fess up. Are you "chosen"?

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 2:54 utc | 276

@uncle tungsten | Jan 24 2023 22:09 utc | 165

Yeltsin was indubitably a drunk, but he was Bill Clinton's drunk.

Gilman Alan (2017-06-14). Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin: When the White House fixed a Russian election. WSWS

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 25 2023 3:00 utc | 277

K | Jan 25 2023 2:39 utc | 277

Trolls are a pain but sockpuppets are no go. b doesn't hangover the comment section like Ukraine goons mobilizing 'volunteers'. Send him an email if some clown is using your name.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2023 3:02 utc | 278

re: Lucky Joestar | Jan 24 2023 22:12 utc | 169

you wrote:

"Nuclear Winter, theorized back in the 1980s by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollock and Sagan, was based on the same sort of flawed computer modelling that gave us the Climate Change religion many years later. These models are junk science because they often ignore parameters that exist in reality, include some that don’t and plug in wrong data. For example: You know that dust and smoke that’ll supposedly block out the Sun for ten years? It would all get rained out in two weeks in the real world. The TTAPS theorists deliberately ignored the existence of rain to make the sensational scenario they wanted to push upon the public."

Just curious, where did you find this misinformation? Or did you come up with this all on your own?

The TTAPS studies were followed years later with peer-reviewed research that was published starting around 2007 and has continued to this day. I wrote about this for the Federation of American Scientists in 2017; my article Turning a Blind Eye Towards Armageddon — U.S. Leaders Reject Nuclear Winter Studies included links to most of the important studies done in this period and also contained a brief summary of their findings.

This issue of how smoke from nuclear firestorms behaves was first questioned in a flawed study published by NCAR, which claimed -- as you claim -- that most of the smoke from burning cities would not rise into the stratosphere but would be rained out in the troposphere, producing a "nuclear autumn" rather than a nuclear winter.

Studies involving large forest fires in Canada later demonstrated that the smoke would indeed rise above cloud level, into the stratosphere, where it could not be rained out. But that didn't prevent a major smear campaign (based on the NCAR study) from being waged against the scientists, who were called "frauds" and their research being labeled as "bad science". Even anti-nuclear activists wound up being convinced by this very effective campaign. The whole issue of nuclear winter was effectively removed from public consciousness.

However, some of the scientists persisted and their later research confirmed the validity of the initial studies. The key finding of these later studies (that I mentioned) was that the TTAPS research of the 1980s actually underestimated the ability of black carbon soot/smoke to rise above cloud level into the stratosphere. The newer research found that that the black soot/smoke from nuclear firestorms would be heated like a solar collector, causing most of it to rise up into the stratosphere and remain there for as long as ten years in the event of a large nuclear war.

The heated smoke would also facilitate the destruction of the protective stratospheric ozone layer, which blocks harmful UV light from reaching the surface of the earth. Even the "regional" nuclear war, modeled between India and Pakistan (a total of 100 atomic bombs detonated in their largest cities) was predicted to put 5 million tons of smoke into the stratosphere; in 2013, this ozone loss was predicted to raise the highest UV Indices from the current value of 11 to a post-war value of 24-27 (a fair-skinned person could get a painful sunburn in as little as 7 minutes in Iowa or central Eurasia). And the stratospheric smoke layer from that war would produce the coldest temperatures experienced in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 1000 years.

A recent article Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in
Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation
was published in 2021. The study found: "For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere, reduced photolysis, and an increase in catalytic loss from the HO x cycle cause a 15 year-long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics."

The full-scale war between the US and Russia was predicted to cause up to 150 to 180 million tons to rise into the stratosphere. This would block 70% of warming sunlight from reaching the surface of the earth; temperatures would fall below freezing every day for up to three years. It would be too cold to grow food crops for many years, up to a decade following the war.

I don't think any of the people running US foreign policy have a clue about any of this.

Posted by: Steven Starr | Jan 25 2023 3:03 utc | 279

Ooh Canucistan @213

Ohh...such humane concern.

Posted by: aristidemos | Jan 25 2023 3:03 utc | 280

Bill Smith @222

Yet another very humanely concerned poster.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 3:07 utc | 281

Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 2:46 utc | 279

With Zircons, tactical and strategic merge. An interesting situation.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2023 3:09 utc | 282

Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 2:46 utc | 279
Weird innit, if it’s a Russian ship out of national waters it’s a spy ship, if its NATO, its protecting global peace.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 3:09 utc | 283

Muthaucker @ 232

In addition to all the ways Tom Q. Collins demonstrated the falsity of Muthauker’s ‘facts’ about Soviet era bio weapon research , Mut was also incorrect about the use of Ukraine for that research. The cited Alibekev worked in the Kirov oblast, Russia, and the 1979 anthrax leak also was on Russian territory

Posted by: mjh | Jan 25 2023 3:13 utc | 284


Does anyone have a link handy to something posted here recently about the US posture on "Information as a weapon", viewed as a clear understanding that the US considers propaganda as a tool in its arsenal.

Or other links regarding the US allowing itself to use information weapons (propaganda) on its own citizens within the US.

Thanks in advance.

Posted by: jonku | Jan 25 2023 3:14 utc | 285

The U$ is enamoured of sending its vessels into what it claims are international waters on “Freedom of Navigation” operation(FONOPS).
This proclivity, they claim “sends a message” to whoever they ascertain needs a bit of a reminder of their “supremacy”.
A visit to Havana of a Russian navy vessel might be the Russians inviting the U$ (and all) to open their history books to page 1962
Those who have studied that chapter correctly, not the Cliff notes, will know, it was U$ missiles in Turkiye that precipitated the showdown.
The Russians allowed the U$ to save face, but the missiles were withdrawn from Turkiye.
(Only to reappear a few years later because “недоговороспособны”)

Caribbean Capers 2.0 might be what wakes up enough boomers to insist we step back from the brink.
We got “lucky” once. The Russians yielded. (Or allowed us to believe they did)
And Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov on submarine B-59 made a conscience call.
We can’t expect one guy to save the world again.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 3:19 utc | 286

Posted by: Lucky Joestar | Jan 24 2023 22:12 utc | 169

Dude, Nevil Shute wrote that book in 1958. And it wasn't intended as a "realistic scenario" in regards to setup and execution of a nuclear war but how individuals and population - mostly of Australia - would deal with the end of civilisation.

If you want something more realistic have a look at "Threads" from 1984.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Jan 25 2023 3:20 utc | 287

K | Jan 25 2023 2:39 utc | 277
I noticed. You usually post comments I agree with and have insight.
But it got him with the twitter. He deserved it.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 3:22 utc | 288

Posted by: Boindub | Jan 24 2023 23:28 utc | 192

To me the funniest thing is the Polish leadership wanting a go at Russia. The very same country that saved their sorry asses TWICE in history. Without Russia there would have been no allied win in ww1 OR ww2. But the Poles always seem to fall for the cheapest of propaganda.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Jan 25 2023 3:26 utc | 289

MoA is just propaganda meant to make the Russian government look good. This is a q-anon level site in terms of truthfulness. Listen to Igor Strelkov and Russian patriots. They have been right about everything so far and shills like this site have been wrong about everything. People in the plan trusting "Putin is a military genius" bubble are starting to wake up. The lies can't go on forever.

Posted by: ATBOTL | Jan 25 2023 3:27 utc | 290


Some years ago, following the aggressors "victory" in Iraq, I viewed a similar site in Kansas. Word on the street was that those machines had been active in some of the genocidal assaults in that Fertile Crescent country. Taking it a bit further down the track, each and every one of those tanks were heavily infused with radioactivity to the point where they almost glowed in the dark.

Reason for the radioactive presence? Their 25mm secondary armament was exclusively depleted uranium armed. Though called "depleted" because that material cannot be utilized in nuke bombs; it remains highly radioactive and is an acute threat to human longevity. Oh those poor suffering Ukies. Even the junk metal dealers will be in for a nasty surprise after the Russians smash them.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 3:28 utc | 291

Zelensky's closest "allies" all seem to be dropping like flies. Sign of dissention in the ranks? Perhaps not everyone in Kiev agrees that Ukraine should be fighting America's wars down to the last Ukrainian.

Posted by: FVK | Jan 25 2023 3:30 utc | 292

With Zircons, tactical and strategic merge. An interesting situation.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2023 3:09 utc | 289

An interesting situation indeed!

The Admiral Gorshkov class frigates look to be a really nice design. Fairly flexible for both naval engagements and launching attacks against land. They could use quite a few more.

Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 25 2023 3:31 utc | 293

Knowing lavrov, pesko and outin by their behaviour, nothing will baplen because battle and war is about speed oc which russians are mentalmy unpreoaded and too tinid to execute.

Posted by: Sam | Jan 25 2023 3:31 utc | 294

In other news. The German Chancellor Her Sgt "I know Nothing" Scholtz has ordered the Germania Armed forces to send a fresh road kill division of the oldest Leo 2s in stock from storage. To be sent to country 404.

RF tank experts from Kublinka sent a thank you telegram for the arrival of the first six mint samples of 30-year-old refurb samples of Leon 2 donor vehicles recently arrived at the museum. To Herr Sgt "I no nothing" Scholtzie.

With the newly arrived Karelia RF Army Corp HQ in Vyborg Northern Military District.

All of the Republic of Finlandia's neighboring Baltic States are busy issuing white flags. Plus new old stock of Joe Stalin's WW2 Red victory flags. To welcome back the returning RF troops.

All along country 404 eastern front. The RF allied army is deploying a new mobile terror weapon. A clone of the dreaded completely irresistible Finlandia's WW2 mobile soup kitchen.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jan 25 2023 3:31 utc | 295

@ olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 3:09 utc | 290
. . . if it’s a Russian ship out of national waters it’s a spy ship, if its NATO, its protecting global peace.
US ships travel in China's territorial waters its freedom of navigation, and if a China crosses the mid-line of Taiwan Strait it's an incursion.
US planes enter China's ADIZ it's just what they do, and if China planes enters its province Taiwan's ADIZ it's launch a squadron up to escort them.
Similar but less plentiful for Russian ships and planes.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 3:32 utc | 296

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 23:38 utc | 196

The US's fixation on the big dick-tanks reminds me after ww2 when they were sticking to their big dick-warships. Everybody knew after the Yamato that these were VERY obsolete. Too bad neither the Koreans nor Vietnamese ever put a hole into one of these to make that point stick. It would have been a great lesson for the biggest dicks on earth.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Jan 25 2023 3:33 utc | 297

"I’m feeling lazy so I won’t look for the clip of Joe on stage boasting he threatened Ukraine to withhold $1billion in aid/ loan tranche if the prosecutor wasn’t sacked before he departed the country in 6 hours.
If you want to find it now, perhaps use yandex …. It may or may not still be on yt.
He was so proud; he also included the anecdote in his book.
And. The prosecutor was indeed sacked while Joe was in Ukraine. And Ukraine has acknowledged this.
It’s not an ole Uncle Joe recollection."
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 2:21 utc | 272
Thank you for the confirmation, I remember Biden's comment well, and I saw it on You Tube. I think Consortium News did a piece on it which wouldn't be too hard to find. The MSM is another issue, they hide anything embarrassing for a US President. I think it was covered by Fox as part of its political opposition to candidate Biden.

While I am responding to you, I am curious about your comment at #266:

@249 "Second post here, and as an American I advocate leaving Russia the hell alone."

What are you?
Sumkinda putinpussypuppet???
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 2:10 utc | 266
I do not see that comment @ 249, but I am sure I saw it and gave it a glancing look. I didn't see a problem.
But I wonder about your comment; what was that all about?

Posted by: Ed | Jan 25 2023 3:39 utc | 298

uncle tungsten @270

That Russian resilience you cite has been carefully and surreptitiously been a-building, probably since 2008, but most certainly since 2014. Thus, while the NATOstanis and the U$$A were constructing a new and improved Ukie army since the Maidan Coup delivered ownership of that bedizened nation; Russia was quietly and carefully turning out those masses of 152mm artillery shells and rockets and missiles of every possible description. By three or four months into the SM0, Western observers in government, military and control-media situations were surprised, shocked and near terminally aghast at the amazing resiliency of their chosen foe.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 3:40 utc | 299

Karl1906 | Jan 25 2023 3:20 utc | 294
Re @bar comments On the Beach
Australia in the late 1950s was as far away on the planet as you could travel and still find a semblance of “western” civilisation. (Yeah, yeah NZ. No one cares)
Most non Aussies here will not realise in the 50s London was a 7-dayplane flight from Sydney.
Even as late as the early 2000s US celebs were shocked at how many hours they had to spend in the air before they could glam it up on Bondi Beach.
Population of Australia 1960: 10 million.
On the Beach was early in the prepper/ survivalist genre. It’s premise, that a remote place can survive unscathed while challenged by its isolation is no longer valid.
With the US frenetically building bases in Western Australia to missile China.
Even Perth, which claims to be the “world’s most remote capital city” is now no longer far enough away from nuclear obliteration.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 3:42 utc | 300

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