Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 24, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation

Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my piece that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.

I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.

While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.


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Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.

It is interesting that this was followed by additional government turmoil in Kiev as another senior advisor of president Zelensky, the deputy head of his office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, resigned. Additionally several deputy ministers and oblast governors were fired:

Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a "technical mistake" and claimed no money had changed hands.

The defence minister himself - Oleksii Reznikov - has been under scrutiny for the same reason.

A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:

  • Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
  • Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
  • And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson

I urge people to be careful with corruption allegations in Ukraine. These often come from the extralegal National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The bureau was setup in 2014, after the Maidan coup. It was created and controlled by the U.S. embassy. NABU was used in various power plays to remove people who the embassy disliked.

In 2020 the supreme court of Ukraine ruled that NABU was outside of the law and should not have the investigative powers it assumed. This came after NABU had investigated several supreme court judges in anti-corruption cases. That fight between two camps of power in Ukraine led to a constitutional crisis.

A year later Zelensky fired the leading supreme court judge who had written the opinion on NABU. The judge appealed the decision and the court took his side. The conflict remains unresolved. The judge fled to Austria where he is now threatened with arrest under a Ukrainian warrant.

There are many of such little reported power plays in Kiev with Zelensky moving more and more into a dictatorial role. Over time his position will become very lonely.

But in the east the battle continues and Ukraine keeps losing the war. The Telegram channel Intel Slava Z notes:

Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.

“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas"


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This confirms my previous observation:

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

There are still Pentagon officials who deny the real situation:

Russian forces took control of the city of Bakhmut almost a year ago after Moscow opened a phase of the war that focused on territories in the Donbas, the far eastern corner of Ukraine comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Recent successes by Ukrainian fighters in the Bakhmut area have prompted Moscow to send in reinforcements, said the senior U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said Ukrainian troops are presently in control of Bakhmut, though Moscow claimed this week that its forces have taken control of a nearby salt-mining town, Soledar.

“Ukraine forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut,” the U.S. military official said, adding the new Russian troops are being “rushed” to the battlefield “ill trained” and “ill equipped.”

To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?

Bakhmut has never been under the Russian forces control. This was the situation near Bakhmut 6 months ago. The Russian held territory is red.


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This is the current situation around Bakhmut. The city is nearly encircled. All major roads leading in and out are under Russian artillery control.


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It is a big meat grinder. The German intelligence service BND says that the Ukrainian forces lose hundreds of soldiers per day in that city alone. The Russian defense ministry does not report on Bakhmut as that is Wagner's territory. But it daily reports if additional hundreds of losses on the Ukrainian side.

In a useless attempt to stop the steady drain of Ukrainian forces the 'west' is moving additional weapons into Ukraine. The U.S. wants to unlock the transfer of tanks by other countries to Ukraine by delivering parts of its own tank reserves:

The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

The White House declined to comment.
...
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
...
Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.

U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Milley and Defense Secretary Austin have been against any tank delivery. They are afraid of the consequences of this steady mission creep. The Biden administration steadily blows through each of its own red lines. Biden had started out by declaring that the U.S. would only deliver defensive weapons. Then came HIMARS and other longer range weapons that hit targets in Russia. Delivering tanks was a red line. What will come next? Fighter planes that have no chance to defeat superior Russian air defenses?

They military are not alone in their fear. The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock:

The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.

Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose because losing in Ukraine will come with the loss of U.S. financial hegemony:

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
...
This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.
...
Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).

Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.

And escalating it is. With ever increasing speed.

Posted by b on January 24, 2023 at 17:05 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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As well as that piece from the Stars and Stripes there was some weird reality distortion from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank two days ago, claiming that the battle for Bakhmut is over and Wagner have lost. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-22-2023
This is at the time when Bakhmut has just been surrounded on three sides, and the BND and other pro-western analysts agree with Prighozin's description of it as a death trap for Ukrainian cannon fodder. One of the two authors of the ISW piece is a brother of Robert Kagan, the neo-con husband of Victoria Nuland.

Posted by: Brendan | Jan 24 2023 19:39 utc | 101

Question:

Does Berndt @3 have clear access to both fentanyl and hopium? Looks as he has been indulging. First signatures of such use is skewed logic.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 19:39 utc | 102

Also, considering that the Ukrainian website admits that the Ukrainian army uses the same amount of artillery shells in 2 days as the US produces in a month, the US "planning" to increase production by 500% "in 3 years" is not any consolation at all.

NATO triumphalist trolls can only rely on this kind of news to circle jerks, thus showing that the opposite of propaganda brainwashing is the fact of failure.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 19:40 utc | 103

Is a small patch of Ukraine really worth destroying the world over?

Asks Dr. Strangelove's own attorney and advocate.

P.S. the F-35 is a joke and utterly irrelevant in any coming land conflict with Russia. Just like aircraft carriers are. Those are tools for fighting third world foes who have been successfully crushed by decades of previous sanctions and a means of projecting the appearance of power.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/03/23/the-new-york-times-should-be-ashamed-of-its-feeble-defense-of-the-f-35-boondoggle/

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 24 2023 19:47 utc | 104

the US has had 26 (now 27?) mass shootings in 2023 because we are not throwing enough money and military gear at the police and surveillance state.

mexicans from all over south america, the caribbean, middle east, etc., will continue to invade our country until we point enough guns at them.

same thing with Russia and Ukraine imbroglio: more money, more weapons. how hard is that to understand?

more money + more weapons = success.

gee, it's like we could almost write a simple equation explaining capitalism and its relation to social phenomena.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 19:48 utc | 105

Dear karlof (20),
Putin's spokesman occasionally makes funny statements.
He should get into the habit of making clear announcements, such as: In view of the delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine, we urge all ethnic Russians to leave Western Europe for Russia, because we can only guarantee their safety in Russia.
This would (hopefully) loosen some of the brakes in the minds of Western politicians, insofar as there are any grey cells left at all.

Freundliche Grüße

Posted by: Oberbayer | Jan 24 2023 19:52 utc | 106

Stealth aircraft can be detected even by old radar technology and it's how the Serbs shot down two F117's in 1999. Getting a weapon quality lock is a different matter. Something to do with the wavelength/band type used, I forget the technical explanation. Serbs circumvented this challenge by knowing the direction from which the planes would arrive, waiting in pre-positioned locations and shooting 'semi-blind' in the vicinity of the aircraft when it opened its bomb bays which gave a sufficient heat signature for a hit.

Stealth is even less of a wunderwaffe technology now but they are still challenging to take down for everything but the best air defence systems, and even the performance of those (i.e. S400) is not really accounted for yet.

The principal challenge to Russia is the sheer volume of aircraft NATO has available and radar/electronics technologies which allow some western jets to fire before a Russian one even sees them. Ultimately, even this is secondary to the issue of numbers. The same way that there's now no saving Ukraine regarding tanks and artillery, given Russia's stockpiles.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 19:52 utc | 107

Hell, the F-35 program happens to be a great analogy for the Ukraine program. From the Responsible Statecraft critique of the NYT on the subject of the F-35:

The following could easily be said of the US (and its domestic mouthpiece the NYT) program in Ukraine dating back to whenever the billions of dollars that Vicky Nuland bragged about began to flow in.

On March 12 the editorial board of the New York Times published “The Fighter Jet That’s Too Pricey to Fail.” I read it in astonishment. It is pathetic actually, riddled with factual errors, foolish — but trendy — judgments, and a conclusion poorly supported by its own text. The Times, especially on defense matters, has become nothing more than an overrated vehicle for circulating conventional wisdom.

It is the US and its NATO proxies that are pushing the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation, not the Russians. The USA has made Ukraine into another Too Big to Fail project and put all its eggs in that basket hoping for the collapse of the RF and the opening of a massive new piece of territory from which to harass and threaten China from its western flank. Make no mistake - The lunatics in charge of the USSAsylum are not capable of taking a step back when it becomes brutally obvious to everyone who's actually paying attention that the NATO-Ukraine experiment has failed.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 24 2023 19:53 utc | 108

A question for the Old Microbiologist. Yesterday you made a long, interesting post (Old Microbiologist | Jan 24 2023 10:41 utc | 230) that included this information:
"Russia has converted most of its submarines to fire Caliber cruise missiles and several now have Kinzhals."

Do you have any sources/links for that (or does anyone else on MoA)?

Can anyone tell me how the flight time of a Kinzhal compares to a SLBM? What would be the advantage of using a nuclear-armed Kinzhal compared to a Bulava SLBM? thanks in advance

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 19:54 utc | 109

Good tanks. Won’t decide the outcome.
I think OTAN is trying to goad the RF into a broad attack, before tanks and other aid gets there, in the hope that a broad attack will increase the RF’s casualty rate and weaken support for the war.
I also think that the RF wants to wait. The big push everyone thought had started on Saturday was apparently a feint, more maskirova. As MacGregor pointed out, the darkness of the new moon on Saturday would have been a good time for a broad attack.
It may be that the RF wants OTAN to throw its best, including air assets, into the fray to keep it local, to keep casualties low, and to show the world that Western weapons systems are not as good as theirs. It is obvious that the RF MoD does not want to prematurely reveal the full extent of its electronic warfare capabilities.

Posted by: Ciaran | Jan 24 2023 19:57 utc | 110

It may just be paranoia on my part, but my reading between the lines of recent western msm narratives is consistent with increased risk of the current geopolitical conflict to use of nuclear weapons and perhaps other wmd as well.

The MSM introduction of the word (neologism?) 'missileers' into the general vocabulary seems to me to aid the normalisation and rehabilitation of military resort to wmd use. Can we learn to love the bomb?


I've noticed also that advertising and promotion of blood donation has become a fixture in the feed to my FB/ Meta account recently.Again, I hope it's just my febrile imagination, but I can't help wondering whether there is some connection.

Posted by: johnF | Jan 24 2023 20:02 utc | 111

Moscow isn’t going to attempt any Big Arrow attacks in the Ukraine because the Ukranian Civil War is a sideshow . The main event is de-dollarization.

Posted by: Exile | Jan 24 2023 20:11 utc | 112

This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars,

I hate this "petrodollar" BS. No, with a $6 TRILLION/day FX market, the "petrodollar" is meaningless. The agreement was the Saudi would keep its financial reserves in US debt. In other words, the key issue is the reserve status of the USD. Listing the price of crude in dollars is just a convenience. If Saudi needs Euros to buy some Siemens gear, they'll sell crude to Europe for Euros. Or they can sell in dollars and do an exchange in London or NY for Euros in a few minutes.

The reserve status is the key point, and illegally seizing Russian National Bank reserves was a serious F-Up.

Posted by: JackG | Jan 24 2023 20:11 utc | 113

zElensky: "I need 300 tanks to defeat Russia"

Joe: "You can have 30. Good luck"


LoL

Posted by: Comandante | Jan 24 2023 20:14 utc | 114

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 19:40 utc | 101

I think at this point the constraint for UAF is not artillery shells, rather the amount of guns they have. They've been dwindling at a pretty fast rate all over the map.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 24 2023 20:19 utc | 115

LoL apparently Russian ship carrying Mach 9 missiles has deviated from course in Atlantic and has headed West towards Bermuda

"Admiral Gorshkov has deviated from its course, monitoring sites have claimed

Russian frigate carrying 'unstoppable' Mach 9 nuclear-capable hypersonic cruise missiles has deviated from its course and is sailing towards the US coast, reports have claimed.

The Admiral Gorshkov, armed with Zircon missiles which Vladimir Putin boasts has 'no equivalent in the world', is being closely monitored by NATO navies during its maiden voyage." - dailymail

That makes what? EASTERN US within a few minutes striking distance from these bad babies?

Posted by: Comandante | Jan 24 2023 20:20 utc | 116

b: Excellent analysis, as always, and some really superb reference links. Bravo!

Posted by: JMF | Jan 24 2023 20:26 utc | 117

The Leopards won't make much difference on a tactical level (it is, by the way, notable that after WOII Germany kept naming its tanks after feline predators and nobody ever objected - but then I wonder why the Apollo spacecraft weren't named the V4), however, it will definitely ruin relations between Russia and Germany, irretrievably for many years, which is exactly what the USA wants. Only this time, the Russians won't push to Berlin - if needed, they can blow up Berlin from a distance. By that time, the whole of Europe is doomed, thanks to its incredibly stupid politicians.

Posted by: Anthony | Jan 24 2023 20:26 utc | 118

Three questions more than comments:
1. No news anymore of the Chechens ?
2. Khadirov ahs been very silent lately, was he getting to noisy and got slapped ?
3. "ethnic Hungarians" being massively drafted, how do you assess probability of Orban sending forces to protect them ?

Posted by: Balladin | Jan 24 2023 17:42 utc | 10

Re/ Chechens

Apparently, they've been rotating and doing R&R. A new group left Grozny and is going toward Ukraine.

https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3294

Posted by: rert | Jan 24 2023 20:27 utc | 119

I hate this "petrodollar" BS. No, with a $6 TRILLION/day FX market, the "petrodollar" is meaningless. The agreement was the Saudi would keep its financial reserves in US debt. In other words, the key issue is the reserve status of the USD. Listing the price of crude in dollars is just a convenience.

Wrong, they're not just "listed" in USD, the whole point of the petrodollar is that the Arab dictatorships demand payment in dollars, in exchange for being protected and kept in power by the US.

Posted by: Observer | Jan 24 2023 20:29 utc | 120

@53
"The F-35 has 660,000 flight hours to date, it has been proven in combat conditions over Syria by Israel."

Haha, yeah great fighters that hide behind passenger jets because they know the adversaries are humans, not cockroaches like them, and will not risk innocent lives.

Posted by: hedlykarok | Jan 24 2023 20:33 utc | 121

https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/

Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 24 2023 20:35 utc | 122

@53
"The F-35 has 660,000 flight hours to date, it has been proven in combat conditions over Syria by Israel."

Haha, yeah great fighters that have to hide behind commercial jets as they know the adversaries, unlike the roaches, won't endanger innocent lives.

Posted by: hedlykarok | Jan 24 2023 20:36 utc | 123


zElensky: "I need 300 tanks to defeat Russia"
Joe: "You can have 30. Good luck"

Posted by: Comandante | Jan 24 2023 20:14 utc | 112

Saddam had 5,000 main battle tanks in 1991 and still lost.

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 24 2023 20:37 utc | 124

Karlofi1@20

Judging from all those un-battleworthy (but very profitable for the WarDefense Industry) planes and even tanks; it becomes evident and even obvious that the Empire wears no clothes. Always practical and controlling their war industries by the state; Russia has created an inventory of working model productions throughout its system.

Thus, the only options left to the U$$A and the collective West are a lot of blather along with the threat of nukes.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 20:38 utc | 125

"Challenger and Leopard tanks have all the attributes to completely change the course of the Ukraine war"
"Ukraine war: Can NATO tanks and training turn the tide?"

Why would we want to change the course of the war, if we've been winning for almost a year now?

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 24 2023 20:38 utc | 126

Ciaran@108; Exile@110; Anthony@116

You are, in my humble opinion, all correct. There will be no offensive unless/until there is a crumble. Russia is not looking for victory but a collapse.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 24 2023 20:41 utc | 127

@JackG

The two things are intertwinned. The dollar is the reserve currency because everybody needs it. For example to trade oil and commodities. Once it isnt necessary any more because your local schillings do the same its over.

Posted by: Orgel | Jan 24 2023 20:41 utc | 128

P Greenwood @23

The single major creditor of U$$A indebtedness is the privately owned "Federal" Reserve Bank. Ownership of that institution is in the hands of seven major Talmudist Bank$ters, headed by the Rottenchild crime clan and one and only one American crime clan, the Rottenfellers.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 20:41 utc | 129

In the case of Serbia and the F117, there is no distinction between "weapon quality lock" and "general detection". When the Serbs detect the F117, they could have destroyed it.

The claim that "Getting a weapon quality lock is a different matter" is just another common kind of NATO propaganda ("Radars Can See the US's Best Stealth Jets but Can't Stop Them - Business Insider")

The "not wunderwaffe technology" means that the F35 is more vulnerable than one might hope.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 20:42 utc | 130

@Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 19:54 utc

I believe OldMicrobiologist mixed it up a bit - not Kinshal but Zircon (even faster, range of supposedly 1500 km) was tested from a submarine. About one year ago, fired by nuclear sub Severodvinsk, both in surfaced and submerged position. Whether or not and in which numbers this and similar subs are know armed with them is unknown to the public. Official reports mentioned only frigate Admiral Gorshkov being armed with them, so far.

BTW, the test was announced and they fired a classic CM and subsequentially a Zircon towards the same target. This allowed it for observers to identify whether or not they hit the target (accidently hitting the same spot 1000 km away with two missiles is out of statistics). NATO didn't report any mishappings ...

Posted by: BG13 | Jan 24 2023 20:46 utc | 131

Russia should withdraw immediately and hope reparations won't be too high.
Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:42 utc | 53

Someone's high. It's not Putin though...

Posted by: GT Stroller | Jan 24 2023 20:48 utc | 132

Western media are ignoring an explosive interview by ret. Major General Harald Kujat, the former chief of Germany's army and of NATO military staffs. In the interview, Kujat acknowledges that NATO's proxy war in Ukraine is lost and that, by prolonging the war, NATO now risks a catastrophic escalation that could engulf Germany itself. (Dimitri Lascaris)

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/01/german-general-kujat-warns-the-ukraine-was-is-lost-revives-the-stab-in-the-back-charge-against-the-us-and-nato-for-exposing-germany-to-russia.html?fbclid=IwAR1UO2GliquKThPfD-MRvSr2B54zBxEznbrEQfsjWkpoNta-IPALa1cC7Og

Posted by: Irish | Jan 24 2023 20:50 utc | 133

The Success of the Russian Military Forced the Africans to Issue an Ultimatum to FRANCE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=st27z8rdkbc

This has been pending for months, but Burkina Faso, and also other ex French colonial countries demand French military to leave, as they've been unable to fulfill their promise to defend territory against jihadists. And they have Russian flags at demonstrations, want Wagner PMC contingent and Russian embassy.

I think after Ukraine is wrapped up, the proxy wars will be moved into some African states, if EU/Nato doesn't leave voluntarily. How about Somali's blowing up some US marine transports and bases in their country with Kornet ATGMs and shooting down their helicopters with Iglas, etc.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 24 2023 20:51 utc | 134

And this:

The U.S. is cynically manipulating Greece and Cyprus to punish Ankara for its disobedience. This could end catastrophically for Greece and Cyprus. After all that they have suffered at the hands of the Anglo-American empire, they should know better.

Disruption, distraction, diversion?

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/01/washington-ratchets-up-maritime-disputes-in-the-eastern-mediterranean.html?fbclid=IwAR1nZ-2TsHfdI31swXXqjveium3PrqWB2yGwglp8QS5pzkK9wRVnQCRvsXQ

Posted by: Irish | Jan 24 2023 20:53 utc | 135

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 17:19 utc | 3

Not sure why any of those questions were posed, the Russians have been doing fine without them. Nothing you have said has actually contradicted the fact that Ukraine has destroyed a whole generation of its own people to "take back" territory that was nominally theirs for 23 years (if you believe their autonomy under the USSR was fake, in which case the borders they received a hundred years ago were window dressing).

And the west didn't so much "hope russia would become civilized" as it fleeced and starved and rooked the country and broke every promise it ever made to Russia, then acted surprised when Russia actually resisted their attempts to stage a nuclear armed FOB on their border.

Posted by: stupidest guy alive | Jan 24 2023 20:53 utc | 136

If it comes to reparations, the West needs to compensate for the enormous damage done to the Eastern European countries (especially the former Soviet Union countries) at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Perhaps the neoconservatives, the intelligence agencies and the military-industrial complex should first compensate for the damage the war in Ukraine has done to people all over the world.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 20:54 utc | 137

Oldcutlas @43

During WWII, the U$$A went all bomber-happy (cue Dr. Strangelove movie) and in 1947, together with the development of the CIA and NSA; the bomber-boyz, combined with the newly empowered WarDefense Industry, managed to take over the bulk of military spending from the Army and Navy. Consequently, by the time of the Korean "Peace Action" the army had been terribly weakened and unceasing bombing raids killed off close to half of the North Korean population, along with a fair chunk of the South Korean civilians.

Nowadays, with the profit-hungry WarDEfense Industry dominating the scene in Congre$$ with its gazillions of money-bearing "lobbyists"; military production is aimed at profit uber alles and not on performance. The AirFarce needs to be eliminated as a continuous "cost-overrun".

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 20:56 utc | 138

Unimperitor @ 132
I think your on to something ther.
I'd love to see Russia move into Yemen with Iran's help that is yet another US UK festering sore of inhumanity.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 24 2023 21:00 utc | 139

Perimetr--

I posted your query to Martyanov's blog and got the following reply from commentator Aslangeo:

Kinzhal is an air launched Missile - The commentator probably meant Zircon - which is a surface and submarine? launched missile

AFAIK - Zircon is now operational on surface ships - and is planned for submarine launch - but I don't know if this version is operational yet

Bulava is a large missile which is now fully operational after a troubled start and its warheads follow a ballistic trajectory - if the warheads are not manoeuvrable then they can be theoretically intercepted by ABMs (although this is very challenging) - Bulava like Trident is a strategic system

Zircon is a hypersonic cruise missile which, I believe can maneuver, and is not possible to intercept with current technology - It is a tactical system designed to attack both moving targets such as ships and point targets on land - there is no current western equivalent and there will not be for many years.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 21:01 utc | 140

Berndt @53

Hey! Peaceman. Just a bit of food for thought. Peace can never come to a world in which there is a rules-based order run by the biggest single warmaking entity in recent human history.

F-35's battle experience in Syria. Give me a break. Syria has only outmoded planes and Russia has refused to get involved with the Yids agrgression against the Syrians. So no actual combat experience there.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 21:05 utc | 141

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 19:39 utc | 100

Does Berndt @3 have clear access to both fentanyl and hopium? Looks as he has been indulging. First signatures of such use is skewed logic.

Projection much? For the past 11 months, I have been reading the commentariat of this blog engaging in wild optimism and conjuring up 56D chess moves. I am just a neutral observer, perhaps the 56D chessers should reconsider their views and ponder that perhaps after being deceived by the MSM, they perhaps swung in the opposite direction a bit too far and would deny the earth being round if CNN said so?

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 21:07 utc | 142

Colin | Jan 24 2023 20:54 utc | 135
good luck w/that. the west has armies of gmo gerber babies in ngo's trying to convince east european mommies that, b/c of the filthy commies, they are too stupid to know how to breast feed their own kids. indeed, the same people who paid Ceacescu pay little do gooders to come in and crap all over anything the soviet union accomplished. and americans, at the least, just lap this stuff up like the little bircher kittens, or lab rats, they are. don't tell them the west's capitalist gangsters and traitors have been running these countries for a generation now.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 21:09 utc | 143


I am just a neutral observer

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 21:07 utc | 140

Hahahahhahahzahhazazuauuhahhaha

And I'm Mary Poppins.

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 24 2023 21:16 utc | 144

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 19:54 utc | 107

Better to ask at Martyanov's site. People there probably have all the numbers.

Meanwhile...

Russia unveiled new nuc-subs armed with Zircon, Caliber, air defense
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/01/23/russia-unveiled-new-nuc-subs-armed-with-zircon-caliber-air-defense/

The new Kazan nuclear submarine will be able to use hypersonic missiles "Zircon" - the Navy
https://vpk.name/en/531063_the-new-kazan-nuclear-submarine-will-be-able-to-use-hypersonic-missiles-zircon-the-navy.html

From back in 2019...
Hypersonic shock. Which of the Russian submarines will receive the Zircons?
https://en.topwar.ru/165209-giperzvukovoj-udar-kakie-iz-rossijskih-submarin-poluchat-cirkony.html

Martyanov on Russian warships being armed with Zircons...
Gorshkov Is On Patrol...
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/01/goshkov-is-on-patrol.html

More Martyanov on subs...
Of Course They Jump...
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/12/of-course-they-jump.html

- RSH

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 24 2023 21:17 utc | 145

deny the earth being round if CNN said so?
Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 21:07 utc | 140

I have you know the flat earth society has members all around the globe.

Posted by: GT Stroller | Jan 24 2023 21:19 utc | 146

Bernd | Jan 24 2023 21:07 utc | 140
oh darn. a sale not made on the F35.

the most fearsome and awesome fighting force in the history of ever...turned and ran like the chicken littles they are from the POOREST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD, Afghanistan.

people can say whatever they want about russia or this or that. apologists for the US have no answer to the fact that they, the US, get their asses kicked sooner or later EVERYWHERE they go. by the poorest people on the planet. no matter how many tens of millions killed, from Manila to Managua.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 21:21 utc | 147

Ukrainian sources (https://t.me/ilovekramatorsk/7294) now advise the avoidance of the M-23 Highway, confirming that it has likely been operationally cut by Russian artillery. The route marked in green to the North is the 00506 regional road, which we reported yesterday as likely the last road available to the AFU.

Notably, this Ukrainian map also shows Russian positions far further forward than reported by Russian sources themselves, a trend that has been noted by many commentators the past week.

https://t.me/intelslava/43723

AFAIK Bakhmut could turn out to be a Soledar level catastrophe on steroids because they have much more forces inside Bakhmut than Soledar. Will they leave, or will Jens Stoltenburger ride to the rescue with Leopard tanks and break the encirclement? Stay tuned to fine out...

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 24 2023 21:22 utc | 148

Russia is not looking for victory but a collapse.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 24 2023 20:41 utc | 125

A collapse of Ukr army? A lot of soldiers can still be found. And voices in Poland already want to mobilize the refugees, to send them back. Some day the regular army will collapse but that won't stop attacks. The zombie EU-US trained army and/or terrorists will continue. It's actually good for nato to kill Ukr's regular army so the nato invasion won't have any local resistance. Zely's changes and falling helicopter looks like a deeper replacement of locals with a new, probably foreign, batch of zombies. The gas company management was changed to a non-Ukr team. Mobilization of Hungarian speaking population seems to have the same purpose. They will die or leave, the land will be empty, no demands.

Posted by: rk | Jan 24 2023 21:22 utc | 149

NOVO-OGARYOVO, January 24. /TASS/:

"Twenty-five civilians have been killed and 96 more have been wounded in Russia’s southern Belgorod region as a result of shelling by Ukrainian troops."

Perhaps Russia will take this seriously.
(population of Belgorod region 339,978)

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jan 24 2023 21:28 utc | 150

Down South @78

Seems to me that even as newbie conscripts, 247 Ukie troops should be able to quickly dispatch of a mere platoon of Krackheads. They simply need to get their shit together and then advance en masse on the previously convicted murdering criminal enforcers. They will need to aim low as the Krackheads are likely to be wearing body-armour.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 21:29 utc | 151

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jan 24 2023 21:28 utc | 148

Yes, that's since the beginning of SMO.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 24 2023 21:35 utc | 152

mr cnn, some, a few, perhaps one or two, around here haven't forgotten the last 50 years (or much longer, for some) of western colonialism, nor that for the ruling class and its bootlicks, what the west actually accomplishd in iraq, vietnam, korea, colombia, iran, libya, etc., etc., etc., is NOT fit for discussion. it's just disappeared.

but you are the real straight talk express. why don't you tell us where the trillions in missing pentagon funds have gone? such are the existential threats that russia and china pose to the west...that the prison state couldn't exist w/o them.

nice try though. reenroll in that "selling the F35" class you failed out of.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 21:39 utc | 153


@BG13 | Jan 24 2023 20:46 utc

These are next to be loaded with 3M22 Zircons and on to changing naval warfare forever:
Admiral Kasatonov,
Admiral Golovko,
Marshal Shaposhnikov,
And Gremyaschyii of pr. 20385.

These are immediately available carriers of Zircons, each of such ships capable to sink Carrier Battle Groups in a single salvo without entering the range of carrier-borne aviation, and getting targeting from both Liana and other assets, including submarines on patrol, and that spells the end of navies as we knew them. Next "stop" are Zircons on operational-strategic aircraft such as TU-22M3M or even tactical aircraft such as SU-34 (Indians managed to stick Brahmos under the belly of their SU-30MKIs) and, the next year, on the submarines of the pr.885 Yasen-class. As they say, Happy New Year.

Source: Gorshkov Is On Patrol... - Reminiscence of the Future... Jan 4, 2023

Posted by: majoab | Jan 24 2023 21:39 utc | 154

rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 21:39 utc | 151
comment directed to you, Burnd by the CNN
Bernd | Jan 24 2023 21:07 utc | 140

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 21:40 utc | 155

Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 18:49 utc | 58
…Macgregor says……
Is he right?

Macgregor is a U$ colonel giving Monday morning quarterback water cooler commentary from his lounge room in ?Maine?
If he were commanding U$ troops he’d order a big Shock and Awe right about now.
Macgregor has risen from obscurity to being an internet superstar in the space of 6-8 weeks.
He speaks well. He speaks sense. He speaks authoritatively on U$ military doctrine. He speaks from personal experience.
He speaks with absolute zero inside knowledge of what the Russians are planning.
It’s all conjecture.
Macgregor is afflicted by the challenge of all internet content creators…. he has to keep providing something new.
Macgregor is “everywhere” at the moment. Every yt channel with an independent perspective has latched onto Macgregor.
He’s overexposed and succumbing to the trap of trying to satisfy his growing, thirsty audience with new updates for western audiences.
His challenge is the Russians are busy during inscrutable enigmatic Russian things…
And their military doesn’t “leak”.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 21:45 utc | 156

I am just a neutral observer
Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 21:07 utc | 140

As a lurker I can assure you your post don't come across as "neutral", more like juvenile, petty and and not worth reading... That's a much bigger sin than being biased, that is, your post aren't insightful, you're just repeating msm talking points. You're not keeping people on their toes by making sure moa isn't an echo chamber, you're just annoying.

Posted by: t | Jan 24 2023 21:46 utc | 157

This morning the enemy took advantage of poor visibility and made an attempt to approach our shore in the area of Nova Kakhovka. There were 5 boats, 3 boats were sunk at the entrance and the rest of the group was destroyed.

Armor and cars were destroyed on the other side. According to our information, more than 80 Nazi were destroyed.

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/17546

Another amphibious landing attempt - seems they have never had too much luck with these.


Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 21:45 utc | 154

Imo MacGregor is very intelligent in the matters he speaks of, but seems the "massive shock and awe offensive" isn't occurring. However, it seems more like a marathon and series of very small offensives everywhere applying pressure, which forces ukies to shuffle forces around and sometimes even indecisiveness because they have a hard time prioritizing what's the most important. And even if they can decide, moving stuff from one place to another always results on the weakened front getting more pressure.

All this stems from long term high attrition, stress and widening unrecoverable gaps.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 24 2023 21:51 utc | 158

"Now everyone understands why Ukraine did not receive tanks at the last meeting in Ramstein? Zelensky did not want to dismiss Kyrylo Tymoshenko to the last.
In the coming days, we can expect news from Germany about the situation with the supply of tanks to Ukraine, - US State Department spokesman Ned Price

The news appeared simultaneously with the decision to resign Kirill Timoshenko."

From telegram

Posted by: Colonel Applewhite | Jan 24 2023 21:51 utc | 159

By Jingo, here finally come the german tanks. My predictions for next steps: germany will establish their own PMC ("Beethoven"? "Mendelssohn-Bartholdy"?) because none of the new german youth have the faintest interest in joining the "german" army. A private action fun and war company may seem more attractive to those guys. Then the german weapons can be manned with "german" crews.

Posted by: Grasdackel | Jan 24 2023 21:54 utc | 160

MOA is reminiscent of good old bar traditions, without the sheriff. Thank you @b. And everyone knows how to fight back. Thanks for all the interesting contributions from @commenters.
https://youtu.be/g9blTSJmKF4

Posted by: 600w | Jan 24 2023 22:00 utc | 161

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 21:07 utc | 140

Projection much? For the past 11 months, I have been reading the commentariat of this blog engaging in wild optimism and conjuring up 56D chess moves. I am just a neutral observer, perhaps the 56D chessers should reconsider their views and ponder that perhaps after being deceived by the MSM, they perhaps swung in the opposite direction a bit too far and would deny the earth being round if CNN said so?

-------------


Eh? Not everyone here expected a easy "5d chess" win I've always felt this would a "win ugly" affair like Chechnya. That turned out ok for the RF (including Chechnya) in the long term, and at a time when the RF was objectively multiple times worse off.

Having said that, you haven't really explained *your* rationale for avidly supporting a rotten NATO proxy regime. Mainly inspired by the principles of the Ukrainian equivalent of the Ustase. (calling them Nazis is convenient in terms of audience awareness but not strictly true)

Particularly since said regime has shown nothing but a maniacal wish to commit national suicide. Perhaps motivated by the drop-down knowledge Ukraine has no future...

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 24 2023 22:02 utc | 162

Gilbert Doctorow has been watching TV again. In the Seychelles, now.
And he has a theory about the 'regime change' in Kiev. The purge of Zelensky's cronies. They are still alive too. The shrewd Dr Doctorow tells us that the CIA was behind it. And that the departed crooks are all friends of Boris-"lend me a million"-Johnson.


"..The presenter gave us the missing link on a platter, a link that our Western media giants just seem to have overlooked: namely the connection between the ongoing purge and the visit of CIA director William Burns to Kiev last week for talks with Zelensky..."

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/

"That unexpected visit had been described on CNN as serving to reassure Zelensky of steadfast U.S. support, as well as to share U.S. intelligence on likely Russian military action in the foreseeable future. Of course, there are other U.S. officials who could do this as well or better than Burns, particularly those wearing military uniforms. How much more logical that a CIA Director would be briefing Zelensky on what he must do to clean the stables, to publicly throw out his corrupt buddies if he is to have any chance of getting further funding from the now Republican controlled House. It would not be inappropriate to call this ‘regime change’.

"Panelists on the talk show identified leading members of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party who have been forced from office as folks who were aligned with Boris Johnson. Their replacements are expected to be people more closely aligned with the United States..."

Posted by: bevin | Jan 24 2023 22:02 utc | 163

G. Lira's latest roundtable discussion covering both political and military developments.

Long - a couple of hours - with some thoughtful discussion. Their consensus is that the cold window is too short for a big offensive to start now. Perhaps in March or April. Perhaps.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 24 2023 22:04 utc | 164

"... "Federal" Reserve Bank. Ownership of that institution is in the hands of seven major Talmudist Bank$ters, headed by the Rottenchild crime clan and one and only one American crime clan, the Rottenfellers." aristodemos@127
Is that meant to be a joke? Or a routine?

Posted by: bevin | Jan 24 2023 22:06 utc | 165

Bernd #3

The West made a big mistake not dismantling Russia in 1991 and instead enriching it in the vain hope it could join the civilized world.

I am not sure if you eat tripe, but you do regurgitate it well.

The USA and its western running dogs were so stupid in Russia that they actually believed the word of a notorious drunkard named Yeltsin and agreed that Vlad Putin and team would be an excellent Prime Minister and executive.

Note that - the USA took the advice of a notorious DRUNK!

There was no vain hope of anything other than Vlad Putin and team were 'the right stuff'. And then in a few swift moves the USA and its western running dogs found themselves thrown out and lying in the ditch watching Vlad Putin and team get elected President.

The USA elite is a clown cart of obsessive alienated puritans in search of a torture subject to pay out on. It has always been thus. This institutionalised mess of intellectual garbage known as the USA elite is in the process of self dismantling while the Russian Federation seems entirely capable of securing and advancing its patch.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 24 2023 22:09 utc | 166

@bevin | Jan 24 2023 22:02 utc | 161

Lira's discussion group covers this subject as well if you wish a bit more back and forth on the issue.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 24 2023 22:11 utc | 167

And the west didn't so much "hope russia would become civilized" as it fleeced and starved and rooked the country and broke every promise it ever made to Russia, then acted surprised when Russia actually resisted their attempts to stage a nuclear armed FOB on their border.

Posted by: stupidest guy alive | Jan 24 2023 20:53 utc | 134

As Russians describe it diplomatically.
Agreement incapable!

Posted by: jpc | Jan 24 2023 22:11 utc | 168

thanks b.. excellent summation and with links to boot.. thanks!!

@ Richard Steven Hack | Jan 24 2023 18:54 utc | 63

thanks richard.. it is hard to see how this ends.. russia might be looking for a 'collapse' as bevin and others note, but i can't see the usa financial empire going out without a bang.. would be nice... thus, i am uncertain of how this unfolds... i too believe any major offensive on russias part is not in the cards at present.. i am not sure it will happen even in 6 or more months... thanks for your commentary.. where are our friends outrageous and peter au today?

----------- a note on the troll and those replying to them..

here forward, i am skipping both the troll and those who respond to them.. in fact, if i see someone replying to the troll i am now moving into an approach of completely skipping over their posts regardless if they are directed at the troll or not... too many wasted posts and i don't have time to read everyone... people like opport knocks, rjb1.5 and etc. etc - i am now skipping all your posts just because you reply to this bozo.. you are welcome to do likewise with me..

Posted by: james | Jan 24 2023 22:12 utc | 169

Re #2 above:

Nevil Shute’s _On the Beach_ is pseudoscientific garbage. Nuclear Winter, theorized back in the 1980s by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollock and Sagan, was based on the same sort of flawed computer modelling that gave us the Climate Change religion many years later. These models are junk science because they often ignore parameters that exist in reality, include some that don’t and plug in wrong data. For example: You know that dust and smoke that’ll supposedly block out the Sun for ten years? It would all get rained out in two weeks in the real world. The TTAPS theorists deliberately ignored the existence of rain to make the sensational scenario they wanted to push upon the public. In a recent simulation of a nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan, the atmosphere was preloaded with soot in the model just to get scary results. As for fallout, they only come from ground bursts, which are only used to hit hardened military targets. All other targets will be hit with air bursts, which have a wider destruction radius but produce no fallout. Also, if there’s nothing of military value near where you live, you will not get nuked.

Posted by: Lucky Joestar | Jan 24 2023 22:12 utc | 170

bevin @ 161

This makes the most sense, thanks for the info. Christoforou points out that the ministry of interior is were all the appropriations go, all the state purchasing happens, where all the big money comes in and gets doled out to contracts, so it's the place for highest attainment of grift and favoritism.

Likely Johnson showed up for the "envelope" with his severance pay. "Monastyrsky said he left a bag here for me, maybe a suitcase with a tag that says Boris? Can you all just put down what your doing and help me look, please!"

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 22:26 utc | 171

People, Don't feed the trolls, especially the one who styles himself Berndt.
B, consider banning this nuisance,

Posted by: A.Pols | Jan 24 2023 22:29 utc | 172

what I can't understand, it's okay to cash currency, is because russia continues to feed industry, mobility, heating and the whole economy of the west, i.e. of hostile and enemy countries,
when with a simple gesture, i.e. turning off the taps, the whole West would be on its knees begging the Russians to eliminate all the Ukronazis instead of supplying them with weapons and men

Posted by: A.cagliostro | Jan 24 2023 22:30 utc | 173

Thx for the sleuthing, b.

Of course, we all know Ukraine is nothing but a symbiotic extension of the west, itself. A shadow displaying the true intentions of the west while the official narrative veils these monstrous intentions with words that have you programmed to think that we are trying to protect the good.

Take the domestic "q" stuff going on in the states: everyone knows there is an element of truth to it, where crypto-nationalists are pitted against the Praetorian-globalists, but you also have the extreme element that defaces the movement as a whole: this being those who thought JFK Jr. was in hiding this whole time and was going to reemerge next to Trump before the Tribunals.

Where I am heading with this is that in order to get ahead in this 5th generational infowar, you need to discredit your opposition to such a degree that what the opposition is really proposing takes on the form of inconsequential hysteria. By getting ahead of the Ukraine-corruption story, they can, as you say, remove realists from their regime and defame them for corruption and, wrt the domestic messaging in the states, they can show that they are doing something about the corruption in Ukraine and that "we have it under control, already," and this is a non-story.

If Ukraine is a spiritual extension of the whole crumbling edifice of the west, we should expect that everything that gets through to the western domestic audience is a means for them to get around any threat of the actual act of questioning and to further placate an already confounded western mind.

It ain't gonna stop until the west is a smoking pile of ash, either physically through the retaliatory actions of Russia or metaphysically by its internal economic contradictions.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 24 2023 22:49 utc | 174

Scott Ritter has a new Substack post up...

90 Seconds to Midnight?
A clear signal to the US leadership that there will be no survivors in any nuclear exchange between the US and Russia
https://www.scottritterextra.com/p/90-seconds-to-midnight?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

The Russian guided missile frigate, the Admiral Gorshkov, is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, ostensibly heading toward the east coast of the United States, part of a planned journey which began on 4 January 2023 and is expected to transit the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean Sea. The Admiral Gorshkov is outfitted with 16 vertical launch tubes, each of which, in theory, could be armed with nuclear-capable Zircon hypersonic missiles capable of covering 1,000 kilometers in less than 10 minutes.

To put it bluntly, soon Russia will be in a position where a single ship could, in a matter of minutes, fire 16 nuclear armed hypersonic missiles at the United States which not only cannot be intercepted by anything in the US arsenal, but also would impact their respective targets before any meaningful evacuation could be conducted. It is, literally, a decapitation weapon.

He goes on to state that Russian military doctrine does not permit first use of nuclear weapons.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 24 2023 22:52 utc | 175

"To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?"

In 2016, when the complete liberation of East Aleppo was imminent, the zionist rag Ha'aretz straight-facedly averred that "Assad had captured West Aleppo earlier."

Facts do not matter to these vermin.

The Brutish "intelligence" has apparently told Elensky that Russia might destroy the Dneiper bridges. Hopefully that is true. It would for one thing trap all the NATOnazi armour on the west bank of the Dneiper.

One thing I have been saying is now clear: at some point soon the slow meat grinder approach will have to be speeded up. The longer Russia waits to finish the nazis the more overt NATOstani involvement gets and the more acute becomes the danger of WWIII.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 24 2023 22:53 utc | 176

@ All re Drive-by Troller Bernd. He is on the day shift tasked overtime today as two colleagues are in ER.

+ + + +

Jellyfish Scholz living in American government occupied territory has been pressured to announce sending Leopard 2A6 tanks [62-ton weight] to UKR.
Observe he did not give a date.

Dates matter. And only days ago, according to reports by Rheinmetall it is not expected that the logistics will allow delivery of the 2A4 this year.

per Reuters, January 24 there is this:

Rheinmetall could deliver 139 Leopard tanks to Ukraine - RND

FRANKFURT, Jan 24 (Reuters) - German defence group Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) could deliver 139 Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine if required, a spokesperson for the company told media group RND.

Germany is coming under intense pressure from Ukraine and some NATO allies, such as Poland, to allow Kyiv to be supplied with German-made Leopard 2 tanks for its defence against Russia's invasion.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far held back from supplying the tanks or allowing other NATO countries to do so.

Manufacturer Rheinmetall could deliver 29 Leopard 2A4 tanks by April/May and a further 22 of the same model around the end of 2023 or early 2024, the spokesperson was quoted as saying.

It could also supply 88 older Leopard 1 tanks, the person said, without giving a timeframe for their potential delivery.[.]

See the schedule. Well, there is a thingy known as "Just in time delivery"

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 24 2023 22:53 utc | 177

Russian government would've collapsed if Kievan regime and its paramilitaries took and cleansed Crimea and Donbass. If the government collapsed, Russia would be destabilised and Washington might enact its wet dream of breaking Russia up into smaller states that would be incapable of facing Western hegemony down. Vladimir Putin was forced by Washington and its vassals into making a choice between two bad options and he decided this was better to invade now than face a worse disaster later.

Posted by: Carny | Jan 24 2023 22:57 utc | 178

@3 berned.

Let me plays devils advocate. First let's address the military hardware. There's no idea of how the f35s will be in combat. They are probably a negative for nato and pals because they're too expensive to risk against an Anti air missle.

Second the armata indeed all big tanks are too vulnerable. It seems the offensive power has overtaken the limits of how much armor can be installed. Russia relied on reliable and numerous t72s and they work as mobile defensive line of sight artillery don't need anything better for that.

Second the su 57 has two engines so it takes longer, but is also too valuable to risk in a dangerous war. It's for intercepting objects over your own air space so an overwhelming amount isn't necessary. Nato however plans to attack and therefore needs lots of unknown value planes.

Finally EW is getting quite advanced. Any tech that needs radio waves might as well put up a shoot me sign. A drone can scan and pinpoint a very large area.

I've heard Russian ew worked too well and killed their own communications as well. The revolution in military affairs is being written right now. Observe the battles and who wins. Watch the videos and analyze the pictures to figure out how the battle went down.

I'm seeing every structure that can be cover is destroyed. I'm seeing it on territory that ukraine lost and russia won. I've seen damned near nothing except guys in front of town halls flashing victory signs when ukraine takes a town back from russia.

Drones strike videos a plenty, close action infantry fights, check and so much more. There's the revolution. Precise and basically artillery for every infantry squad. Missles, missles, missles. Russia has lots of missles, many types for every function. The west less so, they're still clinging to combined arms maneuver warfare, thats so last war. War is messier, closer and bloodied.

Can you feel it? Wagner can take the 101st airborne now. Azov can hold off russias strongest attack in mariuopal for months. Bahkmuts old tired defenders can still blow shit up 6 months later


Yeah the RMA is here bitchez come get some.
NFF

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 24 2023 23:02 utc | 179

Weeb Union has just reported a few minutes ago that Russian attacks along the western Zaporizhzhia line have begun again. He speculates that the initial Russian attacks were aimed at identifying Ukrainian artillery positions. Next, Russian counter battery fire - which appears quite effective - disperses Ukrainian positions. And then the Russians begin their attacks again with less opposition. Andrei Martyanov did an interesting podcast a couple of weeks back looking at the military writings of Valery Gerasimov. The Russians have always had an intellectual view of operations - at least going back to the mid-30s and their "Deep Battle" ideas. Gerasimov argues that land forces should maneuver in a way that they can best strike their enemy at a distance with artillery & air - do as much damage with the smallest loss of friendly forces. Makes sense in a world with very small families. Obviously the Ukrainians aren't worried about paying the blood tax. That factor could do them in - it could also win them the war. History doesn't have many good rhymes for this war.

Posted by: Eric Bergerud | Jan 24 2023 23:02 utc | 180

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 24 2023 22:09 utc | 165

Hear, hear.

I also just read Ritter's piece linked by RSH/CLT above and I just can't see those same elites being able to take a step backwards at the right time. IOW, to refuse direct NATO/US participation in the land and survival war being fought in Ukraine and Russia. The Responsible Statecraft piece linked by b contained a few very scary paragraphs.

When the United States involves itself militarily in a conflict, it often finds it hard to get itself out, let alone avoid deep entanglements that blow well past lines it had drawn at the start of the intervention.

It happened in Vietnam, when U.S. military advisers helping the South Vietnamese fight Viet Cong eventually became U.S. soldiers fighting an American war. It happened in Afghanistan, when an initial invasion to capture al-Qaida and overthrow the Taliban morphed into a nearly two-decade-long nation-building project. And it could be happening right now in Ukraine.

Little by little, NATO and the United States are creeping closer to the catastrophic scenario President Joe Biden said “we must strive to prevent” — direct conflict between the United States and Russia.

90 seconds to midnight, indeed. And I think that the power elite has only gotten worse since Vietnam - if and when NATO/FUKUSGermany forces get directly involved it will proceed on a much quicker timeline than that of Vietnam.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 24 2023 23:07 utc | 181

Not so fast, B! Russell Texas Bentley just had this to say on his Telegram channel: ‼️IT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES - A MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE HAS STARTED ALREADY. TOMORROW WILL BE A _BIG_ DAY. GOOD LUCK AND GODSPEED TO MY BROTHERS ON THE FRONT. DAVAI‼️. Yahoo, Ride 'em Cowboys!

Posted by: Old Mole | Jan 24 2023 23:08 utc | 182

Foundational to the myth of F-35 combat experience cited by NAFO Bro is the notion that Syria and Russia were actually using the S-300, and more so the S-400 systems. Just because a few batteries may have been deployed in Syria doesn't mean that the Israeli F-35 airstrike on a meaningless warehouse wasn't called in in advance with Russia and the US both in the loop. Why would they waste missiles or give away operational capabilities to stop an act of theater?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 24 2023 23:09 utc | 183

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡The order is given: It is to the West

Khodakovsky announces the start of an offensive in the Ugledar direction.

“Our troops have been given a strict order - to the West, - the order is being executed. In a number of sectors, the enemy's defenses have been crushed, and there is a struggle to cover Ugledar. The experience of the battles is taken into account - the command does not see the expediency of taking a settlement in the forehead.

Posted by: Old Mole | Jan 24 2023 23:10 utc | 184

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 24 2023 22:53 utc | 177

Manufacturer Rheinmetall could deliver 29 Leopard 2A4 tanks by April/May and a further 22 of the same model around the end of 2023 or early 2024, the spokesperson was quoted as saying. It could also supply 88 older Leopard 1 tanks, the person said, without giving a timeframe for their potential delivery.[.] See the schedule. Well, there is a thingy known as "Just in time delivery

LOL The best example one can think of for "too little, too late"...Anyone who thinks this war is going past the end of this year - if not the end of summer - is delusional.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 24 2023 23:14 utc | 185

The principal challenge to Russia is the sheer volume of aircraft NATO has available and radar/electronics technologies which allow some western jets to fire before a Russian one even sees them. Ultimately, even this is secondary to the issue of numbers. The same way that there's now no saving Ukraine regarding tanks and artillery, given Russia's stockpiles.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 19:52 utc |

Fair point.
But planes need airfields.
And Russia has plenty of weapons to incapacitate those fields and motorway sections that double as airfields.

Posted by: jpc | Jan 24 2023 23:15 utc | 186

1. "Lend-Lease aid to Russia in WWII." Most of the stuff was unnecessary, though Stalin sure enjoyed getting as much technology from the U.S. as possible, but the 1 indispensable thing from the U.S. was the Studebaker truck.

2. Germany has adopted the Japanese Seppuku strategy. After acquiescing in letting the US, UK and Poland chop off their energy head, Germany has now ensured her fate with the Russian Giant, by disemboweling herself.

Posted by: kupkee | Jan 24 2023 23:22 utc | 187

“Is a small patch of Ukraine really worth destroying the world over?

Russia should withdraw immediately and hope reparations won't be too high.”

Posted by: Bernd | Jan 24 2023 18:42 utc | 53

————

I dunno ... which side has more to lose? Many Russians aren’t as far removed from literally living in squalor, so nuking them back to the dark ages will likely be easier to handle for them than for their Western counterparts, two thirds of whom would star e within a month if Russia turned out the lights in the West, either with EMP or a few well-placed hypersonic missiles. US going nuclear would be insane, but who said the US leadership was sane?

You need to consider strategy and the end game, not simply who can blow up what, when, and how, rather who’s going to still be around to rebuild with what, when, and how.

F-35 being battle-tested over Syria is something of a joke... they haven’t faced S-500s yet. It will be interesting to see when that happens.

Posted by: Cato the Uncensored | Jan 24 2023 23:24 utc | 188

CharlesLutherThanos @ 175

He goes on to state that Russian military doctrine does not permit first use of nuclear weapons.

You can bet that ship has a USA attack sub or two on its tail, as a nuclear counter threat it's a pointless sitting duck. So, regardless doctrine it's a first strike threat and a clear message. Doctrines are for peacetime, war has no doctrines and bounds, that's the whole point and why it always spirals towards the worse and each war finds its new worse.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 23:24 utc | 189

Germany sending tanks to the Ukraine. Again.
Were they not punished enough last time.?
Will 2023 be 1945 for slow learners.

Posted by: Boindub | Jan 24 2023 23:28 utc | 190

Not feeding the troll but I will note that what the USA was in WW2 and WW1 the far away industrial super power that China is today. Russia has all the lend lease it needs and then some with its relationship with China. As for consummating the alliance remember in WW1 & WW2 the USA entered two years in.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 23:32 utc | 191

"Biden is in a bind. He started a war"

excuse me?? if somebody rolled tanks across the border and invaded a neighboring country it is Putin.

Calling it a SMO doesn't make it any less a war.

Posted by: Andreas | Jan 24 2023 23:32 utc | 192

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/01/24/finland-considering-nato-bid-without-sweden-over-turkish-objections/

It's easy. Have someone nab a Koran and some lighter fluid in Helsinki. Ain't politics great?

Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 24 2023 23:35 utc | 193

Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 24 2023 19:53 utc | 106
Agree with your post. ESP:
…”Too Big to Fail project
…” not capable of taking a step back when it becomes brutally obvious to everyone who's actually paying attention that the NATO-Ukraine experiment has failed.”
Every military guy with any clue about the Abrams is saying: Nope, wrong tool, wrong job, wrong option.
State don’t care. Abrams are BIG. And they are fighting a A Big Dick War.
Abrams is the strap-on prosthetic that will shame the Russians.
The Russians, who are actually fighting a “IRL” Great Patriotic War v:2.0, are just watching it amazement.
The pentagram seems impotent against the stupidity of State.
I actually want the U$ to send Abrams.
Otherwise I would advise the pentagram to taunt State: send Abrams and the Russians will die; die laughing.
Russian military must be sitting back, incredulous at what they are seeing.
I think it’s Scott Ritter with the anecdote. After the Cold War, when U$ and Russians got to talk, the Russians explained when they saw the U$ do something so mind-meltingly stupid, they assumed there was some secret subterfuge… it’s was a distraction-deflection.
The Russians were equally parts shocked, dumbfounded and embarrassed for the Americans to discover: Nope. No clever counterfeit. Just pure stupidity.
Now, without an Iron Curtain, the Russian public can follow along too, marvelling:
The Americans can’t possibly be that stupid.!?

… There’s a reason a comedian was put in charge in Ukraine. Circus time.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 23:38 utc | 194

@Balladin | Jan 24 2023 17:42 utc | 10

1) Before a pot boils, there is a short period of quiet turmoil.

2) The Wagner group is too occupied playing beautiful music as it encircles Artyomovsk to waste energy on interviews.

3) Hungary has only a token military. There really isn't a lot they can do in the face of the genocide currently being waged by the Ukrainian Nazis, except to opportunistically support Russia from within NATO as they have already been doing.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 24 2023 23:43 utc | 195

JackG | Jan 24 2023 20:11 utc | 111
You do know, I hope, that Saddam Hussein died (and Iraq was destroyed) because he announced he was denominating Iraqi oil in €€€. ???

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 23:45 utc | 196

Russia has 1 goal now and unfortunately it's to find a way out without Nuking half of Nato. The idea Nato is scraping the bottom of the barrel or the ukies don't have enough gear is nonsense. Neither side will run out of anything soon.
Russia having to destroy 1000 armored vehicles every few months is going to get harder and harder. All this gear they are sending makes a huge difference, hundreds of Bradly vehicles surrounded by tanks and a wave of jets flying at you is as serious as it gets.
All of this death and the Ukrainian army is fully rebuilt ...again.

There will be a massive destruction of Kiev long before the Nukes fly so no worries yet but I don't see how the west will let Russia rob them, kill them and take control of the worlds money and trade. Nato will try to send a message to anyone else that tries to say no.

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 24 2023 23:50 utc | 197

if somebody rolled tanks across the border and invaded a neighboring country it is Putin.

Calling it a SMO doesn't make it any less a war.

Posted by: Andreas | Jan 24 2023 23:32 utc | 194

Except in this case, unlike literally every single one of Uncle Scam's democracy spreading wars, this was a humanitarian war as a means to stop the genocide being directed at the ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine. You may have heard of the term "right to protect"? If not, then you *really* haven't been paying attention.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 24 2023 23:52 utc | 198

@ OohCanada | Jan 24 2023 23:50 utc | 200

good luck with that... obviously those nuland cookies worked on more then a few posters here today..

Posted by: james | Jan 24 2023 23:54 utc | 199

"Federal" Reserve Bank. Ownership of that institution is in the hands of seven major Talmudist Bank$ters, headed by the Rottenchild crime clan and one and only one American crime clan, the Rottenfellers." aristodemos@127

Is that meant to be a joke? Or a routine?

Posted by: bevin | Jan 24 2023 22:06 utc | 164

The most accurate word for it is "Schtik".

(Yiddish) a contrived and often used bit of business that a performer uses to steal attention

... and he is schtikking to it ;-)

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 23:54 utc | 200

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