Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 24, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation

Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my piece that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.

I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.

While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.


Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.

It is interesting that this was followed by additional government turmoil in Kiev as another senior advisor of president Zelensky, the deputy head of his office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, resigned. Additionally several deputy ministers and oblast governors were fired:

Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a "technical mistake" and claimed no money had changed hands.

The defence minister himself - Oleksii Reznikov - has been under scrutiny for the same reason.

A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:

  • Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
  • Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
  • And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson

I urge people to be careful with corruption allegations in Ukraine. These often come from the extralegal National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The bureau was setup in 2014, after the Maidan coup. It was created and controlled by the U.S. embassy. NABU was used in various power plays to remove people who the embassy disliked.

In 2020 the supreme court of Ukraine ruled that NABU was outside of the law and should not have the investigative powers it assumed. This came after NABU had investigated several supreme court judges in anti-corruption cases. That fight between two camps of power in Ukraine led to a constitutional crisis.

A year later Zelensky fired the leading supreme court judge who had written the opinion on NABU. The judge appealed the decision and the court took his side. The conflict remains unresolved. The judge fled to Austria where he is now threatened with arrest under a Ukrainian warrant.

There are many of such little reported power plays in Kiev with Zelensky moving more and more into a dictatorial role. Over time his position will become very lonely.

But in the east the battle continues and Ukraine keeps losing the war. The Telegram channel Intel Slava Z notes:

Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.

“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas"


This confirms my previous observation:

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

There are still Pentagon officials who deny the real situation:

Russian forces took control of the city of Bakhmut almost a year ago after Moscow opened a phase of the war that focused on territories in the Donbas, the far eastern corner of Ukraine comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Recent successes by Ukrainian fighters in the Bakhmut area have prompted Moscow to send in reinforcements, said the senior U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said Ukrainian troops are presently in control of Bakhmut, though Moscow claimed this week that its forces have taken control of a nearby salt-mining town, Soledar.

“Ukraine forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut,” the U.S. military official said, adding the new Russian troops are being “rushed” to the battlefield “ill trained” and “ill equipped.”

To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?

Bakhmut has never been under the Russian forces control. This was the situation near Bakhmut 6 months ago. The Russian held territory is red.


This is the current situation around Bakhmut. The city is nearly encircled. All major roads leading in and out are under Russian artillery control.


It is a big meat grinder. The German intelligence service BND says that the Ukrainian forces lose hundreds of soldiers per day in that city alone. The Russian defense ministry does not report on Bakhmut as that is Wagner's territory. But it daily reports if additional hundreds of losses on the Ukrainian side.

In a useless attempt to stop the steady drain of Ukrainian forces the 'west' is moving additional weapons into Ukraine. The U.S. wants to unlock the transfer of tanks by other countries to Ukraine by delivering parts of its own tank reserves:

The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

The White House declined to comment.
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.

U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Milley and Defense Secretary Austin have been against any tank delivery. They are afraid of the consequences of this steady mission creep. The Biden administration steadily blows through each of its own red lines. Biden had started out by declaring that the U.S. would only deliver defensive weapons. Then came HIMARS and other longer range weapons that hit targets in Russia. Delivering tanks was a red line. What will come next? Fighter planes that have no chance to defeat superior Russian air defenses?

They military are not alone in their fear. The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock:

The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.

Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose because losing in Ukraine will come with the loss of U.S. financial hegemony:

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.
Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).

Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.

And escalating it is. With ever increasing speed.

Posted by b on January 24, 2023 at 17:05 UTC | Permalink

« previous page | next page »

Admiral Gorshkov with its Mach-9 missiles will hold joint military drills with Russia and China off South Africa's coast next month. The drills will run for 10 days from 17 February to 27 February in the port city of Durban and Richards Bay.
Now if they could include Brazil and India. . .full BRICS

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 3:47 utc | 301

Elmer Fudd @275

Glad that someone finally pointed out the obvious future for man-hungry Ukrainian women who have that innate urge to co-create babies.

Hopefully, that new generation of Ukrainian-Russians will have less of that steppeland Golden Horde ancestry that contemporary and contemptuous Ukie nazionalists are so racist about. On their part its a matter of pure projection, as the Golden Horde's breeding campaign rarely penetrated the forested realm of Mama Bear, injecting their DNA amongst the widowed women living in the steppelands/borderlands now known as Ukraine.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 3:51 utc | 302

whore A287

If you were born on 6-26-45, you would be a bit more than 9 months younger than me, myself and aye, aye, aye, as a fellow member of the WarBaby generation. However as I will hit 80 in about a year and two-thirds; it does amaze me that you are already that age.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 3:59 utc | 303

today Jan 24
Pentagon opens door for M1 Abrams tank deliveries to Ukraine in coming years
Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder dodged questions about a reported impending US announcement, as reports also claim Berlin has reversed course on sending Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv.

WASHINGTON — A Defense Department spokesperson today dodged questions about whether US or German main battle tanks will be sent to Ukraine, amid a spate of media reports that the Biden administration is poised to approve sending American M1 Abrams and that Berlin would green-light the transfer of German-made Leopard 2s, in what would be a dramatic reversal for both countries.
But Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder didn’t deny the reports about a potential forthcoming Abrams announcement either.
“I have nothing to announce today in terms of the M1s. As I think we’ve said all along, we continue to have a very robust dialogue with Ukraine and our international allies and partners to focus on what their immediate battlefield needs are now, in the near-term, but we also have discussions about what they may need in the medium- to long-term,” he told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, likewise, told Breaking Defense today they “don’t have anything to announce.” . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 4:01 utc | 304

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:33 utc | 221

"For now, TwInvis is only really useful as an early warning radar, warning defenders of a stealth fighter’s approach. TwInvis’ radar is not sophisticated enough, at least not yet, to guide radar-guided missiles. But the article notes it could provide enough location data for an infrared guided missile (like the AIM-9X Sidewinder) to search for a target’s hot engine exhaust."

The so-called "though not Wunderwaffe" and "though they will be found" are just propaganda and Hopium, and it seems that many people still believe them.

And are you aware that there is a big difference between detection radar (undirected) and engagement radar (directed)?

The detection range of the former is not necessarily even greater than the latter, as is the case with the S-400.

The emphasis on the difference is just to maintain the Hopium "not Wunderwaffe but still Wunderwaffe".

Posted by: Colin | Jan 25 2023 4:04 utc | 305

Hermit #283

Birds of a feather drink together.

Yeltsin was the entire USA elites drunk. Clinton just happened to be the clown 'in charge'. Perhaps Yeltsin was one of the founding funders of the Clinton Foundation?

This was much more than a Clinton bungle imo, it was a CIA clusterf#ck of epic proportions. Perhaps Hillary was bonking the CIA Director at the time.

However I do appreciate the exit strategy that developed with Putin's ascendancy.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 4:08 utc | 306

@ my 312 - more tank info from the linked article --
“All [Western tanks] will require repair parts, heavy recovery vehicles, maybe heavy transport trucks to move them quickly from front to front or to evacuate them for repair,” said Jon Jeckell, a retired Army officer with extensive experience with tank maintenance. “The Ukrainians are also going to have to figure out how to get all of these across bridges as all of them are much heavier than any Russian tank and there probably aren’t many bridges in the country that can support these tanks — and reinforcing bridges gives out a signature that would telegraph where you plan to attack.” comment: It's not "maybe" requiring heavy equipment trucks

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 4:15 utc | 307

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 17:56 utc | 20

Further production of the F-22 was actually cancelled by Congress due to its ridiculous price tag. It's an outstanding fighter jet but the insanely high production and operational costs make any technological advantages moot. The hilarious irony is that the F-35 R&D program has cost more than the F-22 program did by a wide margin (even though production/op costs are lower for the F-35).

That being said, NATO weapons, in general, acquired an unwarranted amount of hype due to being used on enemies that didn't even have a navy or air force let alone an air-defense system for the last 70 years.

Posted by: let's get bizzay | Jan 25 2023 4:16 utc | 308

Ed | Jan 25 2023 3:39 utc | 306
>…about your comment; what was that all about?”
Humor, Ed. Humor.
Lame, juvenile and for you, obviously unfunny.
It’s a sardonic reference to 7? years of Russia-gate.
7? Years of anyone expressing anything but the most vitriolic hatred of Putin being hounded as a Putinpuppet. (There’s an entire lexicon of obscene and derogatory epithets, I just favour alliteration).
Our new barfly opines the U$ should leave Russia the hell alone.
Only a Putin fanboi thinks this…. or so Rachel madcow insists.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 4:18 utc | 309

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 3:47 utc | 309
I am happy to see South Africa's resistant resistance to US imperialism. Some reactionaries in the ANC conspired with reactionary elements of the white racist rightwing Afrikaner National Party who feared Hani because he almost had as much popular support as Nelson Mandel, and he was a strong candidate for President of SA, at some time after Mandela, who was already old and ailing and unlikely to live to survive a second term.

These forces also feared Hani's leftist influence over the ANC. I was living and working in Johannesburg when Chris Hani was murdered in front of his home on April 10. 1993.

"Chris Hani: was a charismatic leader in the African National Congress (ANC) militant wing (uMkhonto we Sizwe or MK) and the secretary-general of the South African Communist Party. Considered a threat to both the extreme-right wing in South Africa and the new, moderate leadership of the African National Congress, his assassination had a significant impact on his country's transition from apartheid."

Posted by: Ed | Jan 25 2023 4:21 utc | 310

@ let's get bizzay | Jan 25 2023 4:16 utc | 316
There is no authentic price tag on the F-35, the most expensive systems program ever, only the ridiculously low prices from Lockheed-Martin. We know from foreign sales that with its add-ons the unit price ranges from $160M - $240M. F-35 operating cost is $42K per hour, F-16 at $27K.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 4:25 utc | 311

@ K | Jan 25 2023 2:39 utc | 277

i was wondering about that... i see peter au and melaleuca also picked up on it.. maybe fire b an e mail letting him know, or? cheers..

Posted by: james | Jan 25 2023 4:28 utc | 312

"Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose..."

He is in a real bind because the multinational corporations and banks (other than weapons manufacturers and defense contractors) have been counting on the destruction of Russia and the trillions in resources, manufacturing, infrastructure, ships, etc. they planned to plunder. And, the CIA is sitting behind the scenes planning how to destroy another sitting president.

I've been rather "interested" in the Ukrainian commissars conscription methods. Right now, they are working hard to enlist ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia, issuing summonses. What makes them think that putting people in the armed forces who really don't want to be there is going to get effective fighters?

Posted by: Belle | Jan 25 2023 4:29 utc | 313

🇬🇧❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 On the attempted crossing of the Dnieper near Novaya Kakhovka

At about 5am today, Ukrainian formations attempted to land at the Korsunka-Dnipryany line on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.

➖At the earliest information, a company from the Tero Defence Force, reinforced by five armoured vehicles, crossed the river at Korsunka and took up positions near private houses. In the ensuing battle, two MBMs and more than 30 people were destroyed, while the rest escaped.

➖ However, in fact the Ukrainian armed forces in five boats attempted to land a landing on the shore, three boats were sunk on approach, and the remaining group was eliminated near the village of Korsunki. And the TRO members and armoured vehicles on the right side were hit with artillery and Solntepec, hitting up to five BMPs.

❗️Несмотря unsuccessful, Ukrainian commanders are likely to continue trying to break through the defences on the left bank of the Dnieper. Along the front from Berislav to Kherson, the AFU engineering units are observed intending to build crossings across the river.

DRGs on small speedboats have become active throughout the Dnipro River, and in various parts of the front, the AFU reconnaissance teams are using small drones, searching for the least defensible places.

In addition, at least two Bayraktar UAVs have been operating from airfields in Voznesensk and Odessa on an almost daily basis over the territories of Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts since the beginning of January. One of the UAVs was shot down by a Buk SAM system north of Ochakov on 21 January.

Given today's attempt, in the coming days and weeks we should expect Ukrainian landing groups to land on the Kinburn peninsula, near Bolshoy Potemkin Island and near Novaya Kakhovka.

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 4:29 utc | 314

aristodemos #307

I assume the 2008 $US meltdown motivated Russia to manage an effective rearmament combined with a serious exploration of new economy/alliance options. Then along comes Ukraine 2014 and the shenanigans leading up to that and by then the destination would be mapped if not the entire course.

Hu Jintao was Chinese President from 2002 to 2012 followed by Xi Jinping.

Putin went to great lengths to foster their mutual respect and especially recognise/celebrate their historical efforts against fascism that each nation experienced and suffered under. I assume the 2008 banking fiasco engineered by the USA would have hugely motivated the two leaders to double their efforts to escape the deadly corruption that is the $US and its banking sector.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 4:30 utc | 315

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 4:18 utc | 317
Humor, Ed. Humor.
Thank you, Melaleuca, for your response. Humor, I suspected as much. I read most of your posts and find them quite informative and well written.
Have you noticed that the post does not seem to be at #249?

Posted by: Ed | Jan 25 2023 4:30 utc | 316

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 24 Jan 2023⚡️

♦️#Russia's Border Areas:

▪️ The AFU dropped an explosive device from an UAV on the village of #Gornal, Sudzhansky district. Two people were injured with varying degrees of severity.

♦️#Starobelsk Direction:

▪️ Position fighting continues in the #Kupyansk - #Svatovo section of the front. Both sides engage in artillery duels and reconnaissance battles. In the area of #Novoselovskoye, Russian fighters hit a cluster of enemy's manpower with a precise artillery strike.

♦️#Soledar Direction:

▪️ Paratroopers of the RF Armed Forces are fighting on the outskirts of Krasnaya Gora in the #Soledar area. In an attempt to slow down the offensive, Ukrainian formations blew up one of the bridge spans near #Paraskovievka.

▪️ In #Bakhmut, the Wagner PMCs, supported by aircraft, are slowly pushing through the AFU defensive lines along Sovkhozna Street in the northeast of the city.

♦️#Lugansk People's Republic:

▪️ Ukrainian terrorists fired HIMARS rockets at #Ilovaysk railway station. The railway network and a warehouse near the depot were damaged and two people were injured.
➖ Several houses were destroyed in the Kiev and Kuibyshevsky districts of #Donetsk, as well as in #Aleksandrovka. One person was killed and two injured.

♦️#Donetsk Direction (MAP):

▪️ Soldiers of the Separate Assault Battalion Somali drove the enemy from superior heights north of #Vodyanoye, forcing the AFU to retreat from the village. Ukrainian units of the AFU's 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade lost a large number of personnel and retreated to the second line of defence.
➖ In order to prevent the collapse of the defense, the command of the Ukrainian forces urgently redeploys Marines from the 501st Battalion of the 36th Separate Marines Brigade. A pair of Mi-8 helicopters provides them with fire support in the area of #Vodyanoye. The AFU comand expects a further major Russian offensive in several areas, including #Pervomayskoye, #Maryinka, #Krasnogorovka and #Nevelskoye.

♦️#Donetsk - #Zaporozhye Direction (MAP):

▪️ In the #Orekhov section, the RF Armed Forces are probing the enemy defence at the line #Novoandreyevka - #Novodanilovka. The AFU command continues to move special forces reserves and additional anti-tank crews to the site.

▪️ In the #Pologi sector, Russian troops are advancing towards #Gulyaypole and dislodged the enemy from several strongholds near #Malinovka. To counteract the advancing units, the AFU are saturating the front with anti-aircraft missiles for MANPADS.

▪️ In the #Vremyevka sector, Russian artillerymen are firing at the enemy's strongholds at the #Novosyolka - Bolshaya (Velikaya) Novosyolka line.

▪️ In the #Ugledar sector, units of the Pacific Fleet Marine Corps and the 7th OBTF (Operational and Battle Tactical Formation of DPR) broke through the AFU defences in the suburban areas west of #Nikolskoye.

➖ On #Ugledar itself, Russian troops are advancing from the west and south, which came as a complete surprise to the enemy. Part of the garrison holding the defence was withdrawn to the area of the South Donbass Mine 1 to replenish losses.

♦️#Kherson Direction on Southern Front (MAP):

▪️ Early this morning Ukrainian units attempted to land near #Korsunka on the left bank of the #Dnepr River in the #Kherson region. The AFU in five boats landed ashore. Three boats were sunk while still in the water, and the landing enemy units were destroyed in the village of #Korsunki. On the right bank of the #Dnepr, the RF Armed Forces destroyed five enemy armoured vehicles and up to 30 personnel.
➖ This is probably not the last attempt, and there will only be more of them in the future. The next landing should be expected on the #Kinburn peninsula and in the area of Novaya Kakhovka

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 4:30 utc | 317

"I confirm officially: an internal escalation of the war in Russia is inevitable and there will be different strikes on different targets. What for, by whom and why is another question.We cannot discuss objectively today - we have a lack of public information. Once again: Ukraine is not carrying out strikes against Russia, but nevertheless the logic of war and escalation of the war within Russia will be inevitable.

Cities that are pampered, lazy and think they live in a different reality will also be exposed: Moscow, St Petersburg, Ekaterinburg and others. Everything will be subject to an escalation of the war, but: this escalation is Russia's internal problem."

Mikhail Podolyak announces strikes on Moscow, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg - he explained the attack on "pampered" cities by the "logic of war".

Zelensky's office advisor Podolyak has predicted Ukrainian army strikes on Russia's biggest cities, which he called "pampered" and "lazy", but did not say who would carry them out, neither how nor why. Referring to the "escalation" of the conflict within Russia and the "logic of war" he himself invented, Podolyak openly declared his intention to strike "various targets" within our country, including Moscow, St Petersburg, Ekaterinburg and other cities.

To openly make such statements while telling the world that Ukraine is defending itself against an "aggressor country" is a clear example of the insanity of the Kiev regime.

Against a background of huge losses in the ranks of the AFU, conflicts at the highest level of government, widespread mobilization and the surrender of cities, all that the Ukrainian propagandists can do now is to keep the spirit of the AFU troops alive with promises of strikes against Russian cities, the real possibility of which cannot be underestimated.

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 4:34 utc | 318

#Belle | Jan 25 2023 4:29 utc | 321
the CIA is sitting behind the scenes planning how to destroy another sitting president.
And they might have Pentagon approval this time.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 4:34 utc | 319

According to our source, such urgency in transferring tanks to the AFU is due to several things.

- The AFU has a shortage of tanks. At the beginning of the war there were almost 1,500-2,000 of them, after the partners added more than 700 more. Most have already been destroyed or broken down/butchered, undergoing repairs in Poland/Czech

Republic/Bulgaria/Romania. Military factories there are working for Ukraine. But the timeframe for their return to service is 3 to 9 months. There are now about 600 vehicles in service in Ukraine, but they are stretched across the defence line .

- Russia has created a strike fist of 1,500 tanks and is preparing for a march. Plus Russia is introducing newer T-90 breakout tanks, which has made life more difficult for AFU tankers, who are facing these vehicles on the battlefield and losing because they are more modernized and see more, hit harder, more accurately and farther away.

- BRoned vehicles such as MaxxPro or Kirpi etc. are inferior to tanks and become easy targets. In Bakhmut / Soledar / Seversk, the AFU lost over a hundred of vehicles. Also BMPs and APCs cannot cope with the new tanks and suffer huge losses.

The West has decided to level the playing field. To say that the 100-200 tanks being handed over will be enough for a new offensive is manipulation and nonsense. The offensive needs more than 500 vehicles not to mention artillery, SAU and large combat UAVs. 

Most likely this is defence reinforcement and an attempt to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from blitzkrieg.

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 4:35 utc | 320

mexicans from all over south america, the caribbean, middle east, etc., will continue to invade our country until we point enough guns at them.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 24 2023 19:48 utc | 103

They will continue to come in until we enforce immigration law. And they could still come in if that occurred if we continue to allow a unique and bogus "crime asylum".

But the rich love an illegal workforce and control Congress and now we even have the Democrats considering being in favor of illegal migration (illegal because it among other things hurts American blue collar workers) an excellent virtue signal.

Posted by: Simon | Jan 25 2023 4:40 utc | 321

Ed | Jan 25 2023 4:30 utc | 324
Missing posts.
b, when he has the time and mental fortitude, deletes nonsense and off-topic and trash posts.
Which is why a correct reply includes poster name and time stamp as numbers can change.
I try to include a few words or sentence from the OP so others know what I’m attempting to reply to.
In this case I didn’t, because it was levity. Which the bar once engaged in.
As a lurker I used laugh along at the wits here.
Sadly. Humor just ain’t what it used be….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 4:41 utc | 322

Sometimes functionaries of the Office of the President do more to mobilize the Russians than all the towers of the Kremlin.

Misha Podolyak, with his hype, perfectly warmed up the Russian information field with the message that either the Russian Federation will win or explosions and the war will already be in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the EKB (the West will help).

Podolyak’s tactics are clear, he is working for the domestic segment in an attempt to distract the masses from a large-scale corruption scandal and with an eye to raise enthusiasm and morale, which gave a big crack after the defeat in Soledar and the losses in the Bakhmutovsky meat grinder.

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 4:42 utc | 323

Rand did a study on escalation last summer
. . . the Kremlin might decide to strike relevant targets within NATO territory (such as supply depots and airfields receiving aid deliveries) either to cut off the flow of weapons closer to their sources or to coerce NATO into ceasing or limiting this assistance. Hitting one target is unlikely to have a significant operational impact on supply lines, so Russia might strike NATO targets that are not directly related to the transfer of assistance as a way of coercing allies to curtail their support.
Russian interdiction efforts within NATO member states need not be missile strikes; they could instead entail cyber, covert, or other gray-zone activities designed to interrupt the flow of materiel while reducing escalation risks. Russia reportedly undertook such an effort relatively recently: Press accounts suggest that Russian operatives covertly destroyed an arms depot in the Czech Republic in 2014 (Eckel, Bedrov, and Komarova, 2021), presumably to prevent the weapons it contained from being shipped to Ukraine.
Attacks on NATO member states’ facilities would lead to Article 5 consultations and, at a minimum, likely trigger additional mobilizations and deployments of NATO forces (NATO, 1949). Such strikes could also generate intense political pressures for retaliatory strikes against Russian targets, likely including those assets or bases involved in launching the attacks, particularly if NATO personnel or citizens have been killed. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 4:45 utc | 324

MacGregor is like Ritter, lucky people have short memories. Both were predicting a swift Russian victory back in March.

Posted by: Simon | Jan 25 2023 4:55 utc | 325

@ aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 3:59 utc | 311

You’re 80 years old — same as Biden — and write this well? Please call Jill and tell her which drugs to give Joe.

Posted by: natokraine | Jan 25 2023 5:04 utc | 326

Someone speculated here about a satellite shootout. Two questions .

If all satellites were destroyed, whom would it hurt more?

On the psychology front, would a “Space 911” lead serfs to anger or make them yawn? How many people would consider it fair play for pipelines?

Posted by: natokraine | Jan 25 2023 5:11 utc | 327

Sorry about that mess of a post on the previous page. I found the original Reddit repository of those archived links. Each is a memorandum regarding a new bio-weapons (or in the Orwellian parlance used, "threat reduction") laboratories constructed in and around Ukraine.

Note that the same couple of firms keep popping up, Black & Veatch and C2MHill. I'm familiar with both actually, as I've been recruited by them at points in the past. Obviously I wouldn't take a job with either.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 5:12 utc | 328

@ 334
Biden's age doesn't matter, he has a well-documented history of confusing or downright embarrassing gaffes and misstatements.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 5:16 utc | 329

Here is the text from one of the example memoranda/fact sheet. Even in my original screwed up post with the list, while the hyperlinks won't work (they return 404 errors) you can simply highlight the text part of the links starting with "http" and then right click and "go to" the page in any normal browser. Again, just an example - These are not "former Soviet biological weapons labs" - they are brand new biological weapons labs. Biting flies seem to be a recurring theme along with the pathogens they are prone to spread.

Kharkiv Diagnostic Laboratory Kharkiv Oblast Laboratory Center Pomirky region, Kharkiv Fact Sheet

Technical Assistance Project - Technical Assistance Plan for designated recipients of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. Registration card #2225-04 dated 21.05.2012.

Donor – the Department of Defense of the United States of America Beneficiary/Executive Agent - the Ministry of Health of Ukraine

Recipient – Kharkiv Oblast Laboratory Center (former Kharkiv Oblast SES) Address: Pomirky region, Kharkiv POC: Dr. Tatyana Mykhaylivna Kolpakova, Chief Doctor of Oblast Laboratory Center Contractor

Team - Integrating Contractor: Black & Veatch. Ukrainian Subcontractors: Techno Project (Designer) & Macrochem (Construction & Equipment supply). Design Oversight (Avtornadzor) - Vasyl Petrovich Lysenko Construction Oversight (Technadzor) - Elena Aleksandrovna Sobol Expert Examination of Design

Approval - The Conceptual Design was approved by MoH Central Regime Commission on September 23, 2011. The Working Design was approved by Kharkiv “Ukrbudderzhexpertise” on May 08, 2012. Construction permit - The Declaration for start of construction was signed by the Chief Doctor of Kharkiv Oblast SES (Dr. Tatyana Mykhaylivna Kolpakova) on May 28, 2012 and registered at GASK (State Architectural Construction Inspection in Kharkiv oblast) on May 31, 2012.

State Acceptance - “Construction Ready for Operation Declaration” was signed by the Acting Chief Doctor (Dr. Lubov Stepanivna Makhoya) on December 25, 2012 and registered at GASK (State Architectural Construction Inspection in Kharkiv oblast) on December 29, 2012.

Transfer of Custody and Sustainment Memorandum of Understanding - Transfer of Custody is in process. EDPs Permit - Permit for working with Pathogens will be obtained after signing TOC and MoU.

USG Investment - Total cost of laboratory: USD$1,638,375 (USD$1,195,398 for Design & Construction; USD$442,977 for lab equipment and furniture)

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 5:18 utc | 330

Macgregor is only positing what a logical offensive plan in his opinion would be. It seems to me that a massive push would also entail a lot of Russian casualties in sectors where Ukrainian defense works successfully, and that the Russians are somewhat more comfortable with doing this constrictive, suffocating approach. They may dial up the temperature, maybe even go for broke if a certain part of the front is weak, but I don't see why they would do a massive operation - and how the West wouldn't trumpet about it in advance, given the impossibility of hiding a high troop concentration nowadays.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 24 2023 19:00 utc | 74

Would tend to agree, soldiers will make an assessment based on the strategic environment, politicians however have to maintain the populations support. Russia no doubt has the resources too crush Ukraine but it would come at great cost and be politically dangerous. We armchair generals all have opinions and nothing more, we really have no idea what the Russians will do or what intel they have also guiding those decisions.

As to Bagdad Bernd, take him for he is, an extension of Ukrainian propaganda, whatever he claims the opposite is more likely.

Posted by: Organic | Jan 25 2023 5:23 utc | 331

here forward, i am skipping both the troll and those who respond to them..
Posted by: james | Jan 24 2023 22:12 utc | 168

I second that...pretty much my standard operating procedure anyway.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jan 25 2023 5:28 utc | 332

Opened a link posted IN THIS VERY THREAD.
Here’s what we are discussing… re Biden and the sacked Prosecutor
>>…In this episode, we exclusively present the crucial testimony of the one who was forced to resign under pressure from Joe Biden, the former Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Viktor Shokin.

A free toddy to barfly who posted.
(Sorry. Not sure who to commend. My practice is to open links from known barflies in a new tab, as I read through a thread. Later I see what the day’s harvest has yielded..)

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 5:30 utc | 333

The Great Game is the Euphemism for the Anglo Saxon animus against its European neighbour Russia. They previously had an animus against Islam and the Ottoman Empire which they subverted and destroyed in WW1.
That was not a Game, that was a Crusade. Russia is only a Game because there is no ideological difference between the West and Russia. Hence the need for pantomime swastikas and Nazi insignia in order to create hostility.

The entire Ottoman Empire is dutifully pumping oil and gas for the Anglo Saxons.Nobody should be in any doubt that the animus against Russia us anything other than jealousy of her oil and mineral resources.

The only way to deal with hostile animus is to systematically avoid the traps thatvdevil iscdevising for you. You never engage with the smallest plans and traps they lay for you, because animus is never about faults in your behaviour, it's always about faults in the animus mind coveting your property and success.

Putin's generation has reformed Russia, but will the Anglo sphere even try to reform itself and try to make itself successful instead of a playground for billionaires?

By definition Col MacGregor is 100% part of the anglsaxon animus, the jealousy of the success of Islam or Russia or China. The Colonel's audience is his own country, 'why can't you reform yourselves like Russia?'
It's a very powerful way to try to incite change. More power to his elbow. But the victim of animus behaviour MUST always reject the foundation of any advice from all parts of the animus. Or get lost in somebody else's agenda.

In 1918 the West produced its in version of Islam in the Muslim Brotherhood, telling Islam that its failure was its unwillingness to fight. Hence the dire state of Islam today on account of doing what our enemies told us.

To succeed , Rusdia must reject the West totally and do its own thing with China and the rest of the world. The objective of the SMO is clear, to protect Russian share of Ukraine and to destroy the paraphernalia iof the Great Game animus/ jealousy against the Anglos' neighbour. The anglos , if they beat Russia, would start on their next neighbour after Russia, China.

By acting the way they do Russia is giving a PowerPoint lecture to the rest of the world just how psychologically fucked the Anglos are. I wish them every success.

Posted by: Giyane | Jan 25 2023 5:34 utc | 334

@Andreas | Jan 24 2023 23:32 utc | 194

This conflict is a continuation of:
The Great Game and Crimean War of the late 1800s.
WW I when parts of Russia seized by Germany were split between the remaining allies.
The Russian Revolution where the British, French and Americans invaded Russia to try to support the White Russians.
WW II when the British and Americans planned to invade Russia with the help of Germany even before VE day and again after VJ day.
The Korean War when Russia established a government and withdrew as established at Yalta, and the USA cheated and remained to fight the devastating Korean War.
The undeclared economic ear and color revolutions which defeated the Soviet Union.
The history where the USA has violated the terms of every agreement and treaty made with the USSR and CIS.

Most proximally, the USA instigated color revolutions in every country that hosted Russian ships, to try to deny it a blue water fleet. When this failed in Syria, the USA instituted a coup in the Ukraine in 2014, tried to deny Russia access to the Crimean, it's principal Naval shipyards since the 1700s, and began a civil war on Russian speaking Ukrainians. According to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe which monitored the conflict, at least 14,000 people were killed by daily shelling of the Autonomous Russian speaking zones. In early 2022, with the Ukrainians planning an invasion of the Autonomous zones, the daily shelling and missile attacks increased 70 times over the average. With the Ukraine repudiating the Minsk Accords the Autonomous zones of the Donetsk and Lugansk declared independence as People's Republics, and requested Russia to enter a regional security arrangement with them, in terms of Article 51 of the Grand Charter of the UN. Russia agreed to do this, and with the Ukraine attacking the Autonomous republics and threatening to join NATO (in violation of the agreements which established the independence of Warsaw Pact regions) as well as to resume nuclear weapons, Russia began a defensive operation. In response to a series of escalations, and after holding referendums in 4 regions, exactly as the EU did in Kosova, Russia eventually agreed to annex the independent Republics, and is currently driving the Ukraine from it's territory, demilitarizing and identifying the Ukraine, and protecting the people living there.

And you imagine that "Putin" (the extremely popular president of Russia, who communicates the decisions of the democratically elected, multi-party government, and the Russian National Security Council) is "responsible" for "invading" the Ukraine. What a statement of abysmal ignorance on your part of you really were unaware of the mountains of evidence supporting the above, or wilful malevolent hypocrisy if you were aware of this.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 25 2023 5:36 utc | 335

Of course, we all know Ukraine is nothing but a symbiotic extension of the west, itself. A shadow displaying the true intentions of the west while the official narrative veils these monstrous intentions with words that have you programmed to think that we are trying to protect the good.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 24 2023 22:49 utc | 174

That is a wonderfully artful paragraph! It captures the essence of illusion under which we live. Look at the deeds - they speak louder than words.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jan 25 2023 5:39 utc | 336

Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 5:18 utc | 338
Perchance. Do you have the State Dept (or DoD) contracts for the refurbishment of school buildings in Sevastopol….. issued, curiously, prior to the 2014 Maiden?
… Because the plan was to take the Russian naval warm water port.. founded by Catherine the Great, but post 1991, leased by Russia from Ukraine.
Planning ahead, the U$ knew it’s naval base would need schools for stationed families… and knowing the time blowouts on government contracts, issued the tender well ahead.
I’ve seen the contracts posted in 2015 and at various times since.
Do you have those in your archive ??

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 5:44 utc | 337

Hermit | Jan 25 2023 5:36 utc | 343
We should bookmark your reply here and post it at the recurring trolls.
Thank you

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 5:50 utc | 338

@ Activist Potato | Jan 25 2023 5:39 utc | 344
. Look at the deeds - they speak louder than words.
...or, look at the deeds and assume the opposite is true. Example: "unprovoked and illegal invasion"

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 5:50 utc | 339


This time the oops belongs to you. If you carefully read my note, it was made perfectly clear that I won't hit 80 for many moons.

As for drugs for the $enile One, I'm a bit at sea because mine these days are limited to a cup of coffee with breakfast and possibly a cleansing one of tea somewhat after the java. Then every few days I enjoy a tiny whifff of cannabis. IMHO none of those agencies could possibly be of assistance to the doddering One.

As his own lawyers, plus the control-media are all getting down on those state secrets ol Joe has stashed in his garage and various mansions, along with the stuff at that U. of Pa. complex; it is clear that the skids are being greased to remove the #1 embarrassment in American history.

So we get his insurance policy, Kamala's foote who made her way up the political scrotum pole of the Democrat party by being a party girl while doing a very personal lap-dance for the late Willie Brown, the then brown mayor of San Francisco and a major power in the CalDem party.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 25 2023 5:53 utc | 340

Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 5:44 utc | 345

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 5:56 utc | 341

State's Ken Price and the Comedy Hour
quote from PBS
Officials in several countries, including the United States, have demanded more accountability for the aid, given Ukraine’s rampant corruption. While Zelenskyy and his aides portray the resignations and firings as proof of their efforts to crack down, the wartime scandal could play into Moscow’s political attacks on the leadership in Kyiv.
“We’re actively engaged with the government of Ukraine to ensure accountability,” said State Department Spokesperson Ned Price.
“A key focus is to ensure safeguards both for the accountability of weaponry, as well as adherence to the laws of war, are built into all assistance efforts as we help Ukraine defend its sovereignty and its territorial integrity against this ongoing aggression,” he said. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:04 utc | 342

State's Ken Price and the Comedy Hour
quote from PBS
Officials in several countries, including the United States, have demanded more accountability for the aid, given Ukraine’s rampant corruption. While Zelenskyy and his aides portray the resignations and firings as proof of their efforts to crack down, the wartime scandal could play into Moscow’s political attacks on the leadership in Kyiv.
“We’re actively engaged with the government of Ukraine to ensure accountability,” said State Department Spokesperson Ned Price.
“A key focus is to ensure safeguards both for the accountability of weaponry, as well as adherence to the laws of war, are built into all assistance efforts as we help Ukraine defend its sovereignty and its territorial integrity against this ongoing aggression,” he said. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:04 utc | 343

aristodemos #348

So we get his insurance policy, Kamala's foote who made her way up the political scrotum pole of the Democrat party by being a party girl while doing a very personal lap-dance for the late Willie Brown, the then brown mayor of San Francisco and a major power in the CalDem party.

Now consider what the play is if Kamala resigns today. Any reason any appointment...

The Twenty-Fifth Amendment provides:

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Who might be the chosen one? Biden, being a fraudwalker for the Dems would gladly accept a Repugnant but would the Senate approve?

Then Joe resigns due to whatever.

Kamala's replacement become Pres ;) So it goes.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 6:05 utc | 344

New York Times: Pentagon to increase artillery production by 500% for Ukraine.
The United States Army's top acquisition official told the New York Times that U.S. production of 155-millimeter shells would increase to 90,000 a month within two years. [or maybe three]

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:09 utc | 345

@Steven Starr | Jan 25 2023 3:03 utc | 285

See also my War's of Depopulation/A>.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 25 2023 6:10 utc | 346

Graveyard of the Abrams.

From March of 2003 to March of 2005, approximately 80 Abrams were knocked out of action by insurgents in Iraq. Of these, 63 were eventually repaired but 17 were damaged beyond repair. Many of those recovered were damaged via improvised means such as IEDs. The destroyed, however, were largely because of Russian weapons systems (

>During the Iraq War, Kornets were used by some groups of Iraqi special forces to attack U.S. armored vehicles, disabling at least two Abrams tanks and one Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in the opening week of the war.

Same performance was seen in 2006:

>The second verified episode of the Kornet ATGM in combat use occurred during the 2006 Lebanon War, where the missiles, reportedly supplied by Syria which were reverse-engineered Kornets produced in North Korea,[33] were used by Hezbollah fighters to destroy up to four Israeli Merkava tanks.[34] Kornets pierced the armor of 24 tanks in total.

The attached pictures should speak volumes.

I doubt the leopards are any more resilient or that the Abrams will arrive crewed for action before the September full moon 2023.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 6:14 utc | 347

The point of endless US wars is to silence annoying US taxpayers. "Russia" (like next stop, "China") is just another weapon to bleed us to death. Neocon Robert Kagan freely admits in 2021 that endless US foreign aggression is needed to keep US citizens in line at home: "He [Kagan] thus asserts that the U.S. empire abroad is required--precisely in order to preserve the myth of ‘democracy’ at home. An America that retreats from global hegemony, he argues, would no longer possess the cohesive binding to preserve America as liberal democracy, at home either."" ...Alastair Crooke, March 15, 2021...

Posted by: susan mullen | Jan 25 2023 6:18 utc | 348

When Richard Nixon was president his VP Agnew resigned for previously taking bribes and was replaced by Congressman Gerald Ford, who then became president when Nixon resigned, some say from a CIA effort. . .I remember -- Tucker Carlson.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:19 utc | 349

All of this death and the Ukrainian army is fully rebuilt ...again.

There will be a massive destruction of Kiev long before the Nukes fly so no worries yet but I don't see how the west will let Russia rob them, kill them and take control of the worlds money and trade. Nato will try to send a message to anyone else that tries to say no.

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 24 2023 23:50 utc | 200


How are the Ukrainians going to replace the NCOs? This is not a video game where equipment respawns with the same stats over and over again. No NCOs, no army.

Russia hasn't even engaged its proper army yet. The SMO has mostly been the Donbass militias and the Musicians thus far. Woe unto NATO if and when the Russian regulars are engaged.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 25 2023 6:22 utc | 350

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2023 6:14 utc | 355

Leopards are not designed for the battlefield in Ukraine nor are they armoured for combat against Russian levels of equipment. Poland is asking EU to pay them for Leopards it wants to ship to Ukraine - ones it received at a discount from Germany - to switch to bribes from General Dynamics.

There are so many Leos around because Germany offloaded them at the end of the Cold War cheaply - to Greece, to Netherlands, to Poland, to Spain, to Finland........Netherlands sold/loaned some to Canada; sold some to Spain.

They cannibalise for parts just as with Challenger (production ceased 2013) and Spain keeps 2A4s for spares.........Poland has upgraded some Leos..........Ukraine needs tank transporters for heavy tanks to move them

This will totally incapacitate Ukrainian forces - stuck with small companies of mix and match tanks without spares or technicals to repair - should help the junkyard Ukraine is full of disposed windmill blades from Netherlands and junk inventory from NATO.........I wonder how much plastic waste and surgical waste and chemical waste Ukraine has been taking in from Western Europe ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 25 2023 6:22 utc | 351

Comandante | Jan 24 2023 20:20 utc | 114
Russian frigate carrying 'unstoppable' Mach 9 nuclear-capable hypersonic cruise missiles has deviated from its course and is sailing towards the US coast,

See pravda jan 16
"Let her anchor herself some 100 miles off the coast, closer to the Potomac River,” Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation,
It seems Medvedev has a much greater grasp of geography that Liz Truss, and indeed historical significance.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 6:22 utc | 352

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 5:44 utc | 345

No, but I have a medical procedure tomorrow and can definitely check my sources after I've recovered. If and when I find them (it's a little more difficult given that the US gov't switched from to in 2019/2020) I will definitely find a way to post and call them out to you. I don't think it should be too hard, but we'll see. The records I found for the biolabs had to be archived because they were obviously deleted as soon as things heated up in early 2022. Probably the same happened for any contractual data about schools; hopefully there are still caches out there.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 6:23 utc | 353

@ susan mullen | Jan 25 2023 6:18 utc | 356
Crooke probably got that from Randolph Bourne's War is the Health of the State

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:23 utc | 354

@ Activist Potato | Jan 25 2023 5:28 utc | 340

thanks.. we are on the same page.. it took me a while!

Posted by: james | Jan 25 2023 6:25 utc | 355

Ukraine (or it’s U$ owner) is nervous and apprehensive about the Russia-Belarus military “exercises” in Belarus.
They want a “non-aggression pact”.
Right. When Russia observed the build up of USNATO toys on its border, and sought “security guarantees”, it was mocked and then ignored.
Oh, but Russia and Belarus doing military things within their own borders, “too close” to Ukraine…..
Makes Ukraine (U$) nervous.
> I think that’s exactly the intention..
Here’s iEarlgrey with a 20min yt.
Russia is also on Jan 27 opening an exhibition of all the weapons NATO has donated since last year.
Mike’s going to visit and report …..

@Don Bacon.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 6:27 utc | 356

...or, look at the deeds and assume the opposite is true. Example: "unprovoked and illegal invasion"
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 5:50 utc | 347

"Look at the deeds and assume the opposite is true."
I'm not understanding what you are trying to say here. Are you saying that when something is done, it is the opposite of what is done?

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jan 25 2023 6:27 utc | 357

@Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 6:23 utc | 361
I posted it at 349.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:27 utc | 358

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jan 25 2023 6:27 utc | 365
Thanks -- should have been words not deeds.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:29 utc | 359

aristodemos #348
>…… up the political scrotum pole.
And here’s me lamenting the wits had left the bar..

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 6:30 utc | 360

Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 6:23 utc | 361
All the best for tomorrow.
Don B got it covered.
Our resident trolls will remain impervious, of course.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 6:33 utc | 361

How does this conflict not go nuclear when one side is not a rational actor? If the west is not willing to lose there will be endless incremental escalations. The US has the air power to conventionally defeat Russia. Russia would have to go nuclear to prevent this.

For the US hegemony to stay on top it must destroy China. It can't destroy China until it destroys Russia. The cherry on top is the economic destruction of the EU in the process.

Yes this line of thinking is not rational but it appears to be policy. You go to WW3 with the leaders you have, not the leaders you want or wish to have.

Posted by: Trimbly | Jan 25 2023 6:41 utc | 362

from the White House today--

Q Is the administration ready to give Abrams to Ukraine in order — I just — one — all right — is the administration ready to give the Abrams?
And two: If you are, is there — has it been connected with Germany also giving Leopards?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: So, I’m going to say we are in constant communications with Ukraine and other allies and partners as it relates to what Ukraine needs in the battlefield, but I don’t have any preview — anything to preview here, any announcements to make at this time, or any new types of security assistance to preview for you today. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:43 utc | 363

on a lighter side--
The Army announced a new recruiting referral program Monday afternoon aimed to inspire soldiers to refer friends and family in return for ribbons and accelerated promotions. The Soldier Referral Program pilot comes in the wake of a recruiting slump that saw the Army end fiscal 2022 at an estimated 20,000 troops under its authorized end strength. . ."Refer a friend. If they enlist, you may qualify for advanced promotion." . . .Hey look at all my stripes, I don't know shit but I got five guys to enlist! . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:51 utc | 364

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2023 6:27 utc | 366

There you go. I'll do some further digging tomorrow afternoon. Thanks. Govtribe is hit or miss; kind of surprised it was found there. My own company's contracts show up at about a 35% rate, which is all I will say on the matter for now.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 7:00 utc | 365

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 6:33 utc | 369

Very much appreciated. It should be a routine gastro-er-scopy type procedure; hopefully that's all.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 25 2023 7:01 utc | 366

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 6:22 utc | 360

You mean Admiral Gorchkov ? I should think it is a long way off US coast since it is scheduled for exercises with china and South Africa. BTW it has Ukrainian built gas-turbines and is named after the Admiral who built up the Soviet surface navy - he was born in Ukraine

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 25 2023 7:11 utc | 367

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 21:29 utc | 149

As much as they would like to, these are mobilised soldiers meaning HQ has all their personal details including family members etc. If they shoot, the family members will face retribution.

The only unit to date that have killed the Nationalists sent to force them to fight were Polish mercenaries.

Posted by: Down South | Jan 25 2023 7:18 utc | 368

Trimbly [370]

The US has the air power to conventionally defeat Russia.

You surely cannot believe such nonsense !!!

By your logic the Luftwaffe flying from France and Netherlands and Norway should have crushed the RAF in 1940............

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 25 2023 7:19 utc | 369

Addressing a Chambers of Commerce meeting in Boca Raton today, Zelensky thanks BlackRock, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others for their support of Ukraine. Adds that sending Ukraine heavier weapons, like Abrams tanks, represents a "big business" opportunity for US corporations

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 7:27 utc | 370

Jan 24 2023 17:23 utc | 5

I think that clown Boris Johnson was in Kiev because he also wants to play piano with his dick for the upcoming number 10 parties and clown Selensky is his best teacher. On this occasion BoJo took ten olive green underpants that Selensky had pooped all over to sell at charity events in London. BoJo gets 15% commission per pair of underpants. Soon again Flinten Uschi from Brussels comes to Kiev and brings Selensky freshly washed German underpants. On this occasion Uschi will ask Volodymyr again to play the Horst Wessel song with his willy on the piano. Uschi always gets all wet and Anal Ena totally jealous.

Posted by: Bonfire Night | Jan 25 2023 7:27 utc | 371

"The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" article on doomsday reads like a misinformation propaganda piece for the CIA. I am about to vomit. The Russiaphobia in the West has reached unprecedented levels and permeates all key Western Government and MSM. Just wish I could do more to help Russia who is really the underdog.

Posted by: SICKOF USA | Jan 25 2023 7:55 utc | 372

I still think, besides running out of Warsaw pact (or Warsaw Treaty Organization) tanks, the Bakhmut & Soledar debacle is one of underlying reasons for US pressing tanks, German Leopards in this case.

They seem genuinely VERY worried about Bakhmut going into encirclement, along with, perhaps up to 100k troops (probably already less than that since those units, perhaps 25 brigades are already seriously depleted). War might many times seem very indecisive for a long time, and it suddenly starts cascading as serious of larger losses and failures for one side. This is clearly what's going on in Donbass, and the failures will quickly snowball as we can see in Zaporizhe and Ugledar. The Svatovo offensive, whatever objectives UAF had seems to have been halted.

The fact that the puppet master must commit himself to aid his puppet is a sign of failure.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 7:56 utc | 373

In the early morning, the RF Armed Forces launched a missile attack on the location of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. Local sources report significant losses among enemy personnel.

Kramatorsk is the next and last actual meaningful line of defense in Donbass.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 8:19 utc | 374

Posted by: susan mullen | Jan 25 2023 6:18 utc | 356

Liberal democracy is so strong, effective and popular that it cannot exist without endless imperialist aggression.

"Just wish I could do more to help Russia who is really the underdog."

Posted by: SICKOF USA | Jan 25 2023 7:55 utc | 381

I have always recommended supporting men in Ukraine to flee the ultranationalist regime

About the U.S. "harm reduction" bio-labs in Ukraine: Not surprisingly, imperialists are again experimenting with their latest dangerous tricks in the Third World.

The functional acquisition studies done at the Wuhan lab, which is accused of being the source of the virus, are also called "harm reduction" biological experiments.

Although it is clear that the virus was from a Western laboratory, since it is the Western bourgeoisie that is getting the huge upward transfer of wealth, not the China's.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 25 2023 8:21 utc | 375

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 23:24 utc | 190

You can also assume there is a Russian attack sub tailing it, too.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 25 2023 8:23 utc | 376

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 23:24 utc | 190

You can also assume there is a Russian attack sub tailing it, too.


Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 8:24 utc | 377

Greenwood 377

It doesn't matter what I think. It matters what the crazy people in charge think. Why is Russia largely holding back their airforce from heavy engagement? Maybe Russia thinks their airforce will be needed for a larger conflict. Is Russia competing with a rational actor?

Posted by: Trimbly | Jan 25 2023 8:27 utc | 378

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 25 2023 0:48 utc | 226
"So 6 to 9 months is the short end that I have seen lately here."

I don't give a shit. It's vastly more likely than two years, so you can drop kick your passive-aggressive concern trolling.


Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 8:27 utc | 379

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 25 2023 0:38 utc | 224
"Do you really see the UKR surrendering in the next 6 months before Odessa Oblast joins the RF? Odessa can not be left on the table for a NATO naval base on the Black Sea."

You misinterpret. Odessa won't be part of Ukraine when this over. Nothing will be part of "Ukraine" when this is over. It's going to be a set of Ukrainian oblasts which belong to the Russian Federation. NATO gets not one inch of land from this outcome.


Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 8:30 utc | 380

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 24 2023

genocide - don't swing big words.
how many ppl died in Donbass? look to Rwanda to know how a genocide looks like.

Donbass is a civil. a civil war with Russian meddling. that SMO is as much about *right to protect* as was the bays of pigs invasion.

it's about control.

don't believe silly kreml propaganda about defeating nazis and what not
(for that matter russia should first sweep at home)

Posted by: Andreas | Jan 25 2023 8:32 utc | 381

Funny way of finding more idiots for Zely: Ukrainians from Georgia may have to be evacuated due to the influx of Russians into the country - Ambassador of Ukraine to Georgia.

Posted by: rk | Jan 25 2023 8:39 utc | 382

Comment from Big Serge on Twitter re the Abrams...

Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
Now the Washington Post claims that the Abrams going to Ukraine may be a new order from the manufacturer, rather than from US stocks. If so, the war might be over before they reach Europe. In any case, seems clear that this wasn’t well thought out.

So Washington rope-a-dopes Germany into denuding itself of Leopard tanks while knowing the US will never send actual Abrams. LOL


Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 8:43 utc | 383

Trimbly | Jan 25 2023 8:27 utc | 386
„ Why is Russia largely holding back their airforce from heavy engagement?"
Because the political leadership commands the military and not the other way round? Apparently they want to win but without provocating the other side into a desparate fiasco?

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 25 2023 8:46 utc | 384

@ Vikichka (45 & 72)
As many pointed out here, as long as the US has military troops and bases on German soil, Germany is not an independent nation and is not free to make its own decisions. So the real mistake during reunification was not removing said US troops and bases from German soil - which continue to be there 30 years after the Soviets withdrew theirs.

Posted by: joey_n | Jan 25 2023 8:47 utc | 385

Posted by: Andreas | Jan 25 2023 8:32 utc | 389

Not about control. You want to make Russia equivalent to empire. Russia is the rest of the world finally fighting back.

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 25 2023 8:48 utc | 386

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 18:15 utc | 39

Any NATO MBT entering Ukraine will die from Hermes missiles or other ordinance; they're inferior, it's really that simple.

up to this point I consider you a serious commentator
But why do you start posting such "propaganda" ? this is exactly the same like before the SMO: 24 hours all AD-systems will be destroyed.........
see smoothiex12
ok ok .. i think the link was meant to be sarcastic ... but many commenters here think and act in exactly the same manner
AND it's the main basis of existence for trolls of all color
such a shortening , cherrypicking from a complex problem is not helpfull; it's simply garbage
what has hermes to do with inferior tanks ?? Do you think russian tanks will withstand against this weapon ?
some days ago you write about infantry fighting against tanks ( field manual ?? ) so i think you has some experience with anti-tank combat but your statement does not reflect this
one example:
there were 2 videos about Tanks not capable to traverse a concrete ramp
1 about an leopard allegly in sweden (without snow or ice )
1 about a abrahms in winter condition
the abrahms was equated with a video of a russian tank in the field ( also in winter )
how can anyone from this conclude that russian tanks are better?

Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 25 2023 8:51 utc | 387

Dear, dear, another troll appears...Mr Andreas, there is more than one genocide going on in Ukraine...thanks to NATO more than a hundered thousand Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and it seems a lot of Poles are going to follow.
Not that NATO officials care.
Meanwhile, I guess that Russia prefers the NATO tanks to come to the battlefield right where Russia controls the situation - much better to destroy them there than in a less predictable phase of war over al much larger territory. Let's hope that Russia keeps it conventional though.
And about On The Beach: it's quite a good novel, even if it's hard to say if "cobalt bombs" really could have such a global effect (I'm not saying they couldn't). But one of the really interesting aspects of the story is how the nuclear war started: by a series of miscalculations and the absurd aggressiviness of some "small nations". Albania, Israel...Ukraine perhaps? Well, three quarters of a century later, we are still trying to make some great novels come true (On the Beach, but of course the great dystopian novels too). And the sheer amount of trolls here just shows how much money is being put into that effort...

Posted by: Anthony | Jan 25 2023 8:57 utc | 388

CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 8:24 utc | 385
'Russian frigate “Admiral Gorshkov”, was expected to go straight to join its first Naval exercise with China and South Africa, but instead passed over to mid/west Atlantic to carry out an exercise with a hypersonic missile weapon using computer simulation. The Tsirkon hypersonic weapon was employed to a distance of over 900 km (559 miles).'

Yes, i daresay it is being tracked with great interest, both physically and electronically.
It has certainly set off a few blogsites.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 9:01 utc | 389

More idle but still interesting social media speculation:

Did the USA choose a new Ukraine president?

The US media is spinning some kind of P.R. story about the Ukrainian army commander-in-chief. Zaluzny inherited one million dollars from the USA and transferred all funds to an army account, New York Times says Comamder of AFU allegedly received an inheritance from Ukrainian-born American H. Stepants.

Earlier, it was reported that Zelensky fears Zaluzhny's rising popularity and is waging a backstabbing battle with him. It looks very much like the states have started preparing a replacement for the Ukrainian president.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 25 2023 9:03 utc | 390

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 25 2023 8:48 utc | 394

this war is the umpteenth time the last 100 years for Russia to roll its tanks across the border to squash an uprising and establish control. aka the prime and foremost behaviour of an empire.

typically prefaced by a "protecting minorities" or "business interests" or "strategic interests".

not unlike the US did in cuba, spain in Haiti, or britain did ireland.

Posted by: Andreas | Jan 25 2023 9:09 utc | 391

Considering that Zelensky himself and his supporters are among the rather "moderate" Ukrainian nationalists (at least considering implementing the Minsk agreements or taking negotiating steps, only to be undermined by NATO), the U.S. might indeed consider replacing him.

Since the US even did human trials to "invent" HIV around WWII, I'm not surprised it did anything.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 25 2023 9:13 utc | 392

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 25 2023 9:01 utc | 397

Come to think about it, the frigate is a nice decoy. The US subs track it, while the Russian quiet sub with the Poseidon or other nuclear-armed subs stay behind out of sight and sound :-)


Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 25 2023 9:16 utc | 393

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 25 2023 3:42 utc | 308

Thanks for the elaborate answer! Always appreciated! But wasn't Perth even attacked (or at least threatened) by the Japanese at one occasion during ww2? As even back then it didn't seem that far away to be safe from the rest of the world.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Jan 25 2023 9:30 utc | 394

Not sure if this has not been linked already but there is another possible take on the potential Russian offensive, which adds a very significant dimension to the entire picture and overall Russian strategy. Namely its about modern battlefield visibility and why large scale force manouvers are very difficult to conduct. The substack account is called BLACK MOUNTAIN ANALYSIS and is faily recent - first article is from October 2022.
Please also make sure to check out the author's previous posts as the analysis in my opninion is very solid and cuts through a lot of speculations.

The piece directly related to Bernhard's current topic and which actually validates the previous post which suggested that the offensive has in fact started is at:

Highly Recommended! ENJOY.

Posted by: wlodek | Jan 25 2023 9:36 utc | 395

🇷🇺 An exclusive from the front line from Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

Wagner PMC units are warming up strongholds of Nazis and foreign mercenaries who are hiding in residential and administrative buildings with "Solncepek" systems.

📝 "The fight is going on for every house, every block, every piece of this land. We're moving, we're moving further and further and further. Soon, I think, we will take all of Bakhmut. The general tactic, of course, is a pincer movement," says one of the "musicians" (Wagner PMC fighters).

❗️ Russian fighters note the high intensity of fighting and the fact that there are almost no Ukrainians on the positions - only mercenaries are fighting back.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 9:43 utc | 396

The amount of gaslighting on sending the tanks is unreal even though the decision has not been officially announced. This is the moment of truth. Germany surrenders sovereignty and embraces economic depression to satisfy US interests.

Posted by: Kaiama | Jan 25 2023 9:44 utc | 397

good job Berndt, you seem to be the only reasonable person on this forum

Posted by: Realist | Jan 25 2023 9:48 utc | 398

US general Milley said that currently 500 Ukrainians are training in Germany in a training period of 5-8 weeks. He also repeated that Ukraine needs tanks to attack Melitopol and take Crimea.

They are absolutely hell-bent and fixated on Melitopol and the Crimean land bridge. Tunnel vision maybe?

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2023 9:49 utc | 399

April 2022: Zelenski asks Spain for 53 Leopard and several F-18 fighter planes link
June 2022: Ukraine asks Spain to train its military in the handling of 'Leopard' tanks link
Spain will send 10 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, General Dynamics asks half a million each. The Spanish Defense ministry has obtained the approval of Germany and the United States link
July 2022: Spanish Defense Ministry donates 10 Leopard and 20 M113 to Ukraine. Once the Leopard 2A4 and M113 are property of Ucraine, the Zelenski government will pay Spain to update the tanks with money from the "European Peace Facility". link
January 2023: Spain will send Leopard tanks to Ukraine after Germany says yes link

My conclusion is the whole transfer of tanks now (and fighter planes tomorrow) has been planned at least from April 2022, and paid for with off-budget money from the European Union (the European Peace Facility). Spain received permission from Germany and the United States to send tanks back in June 2022.

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 25 2023 10:07 utc | 400

« previous page | next page »

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment