Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 21, 2023

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

The long expected Russian offensive in Ukraine has begun.

The Ukrainian army, egged on by its U.S. controllers, had put most of its resource into the static defense of the Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) - Soledar sector of the eastern front. An insane number of Ukrainian brigades, though many partially depleted, were concentrated on that 50 kilometer long front. This left other sectors nearly empty of Ukrainian troops.


Source: Military Land Deployment Map - bigger
I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

On the southern and northern sectors of the battle-line the Ukrainian forces have been thinned out and are only able to defend against minor forces.

The Ukrainian forces in the north and south are in the same position Russian troops had been in when the Ukrainian army last year launched a blitz attack in the Kharkiv region. The Russian screening force of some 2,000 boarder guards and federal police retreated and used its artillery to destroy the oncoming Ukrainian forces. The attack ran out of power and came to a halt after progressing some 70 kilometers on a rather large front. But Ukraine no longer has, unlike the Russians at that time, the artillery that is need to stop a larger thrust.

The big Ukrainian concentration in Bakhmut is now in an operational encirclement. The Russian forces have progressed north and south of the city and their artillery can easily control the western exit roads of Bakhmut. This a Verdun like situation. Russian artillery is by far numerical superior and can slaughter the Ukrainian troops at will. Even the U.S. military is now suggesting that Ukraine should give up on that city. Should the government in Kiev agree to that it will be a retreat under fire with likely high casualties. Not retreating though will make things even worse.


Source: Live UA Map - bigger

The Ukrainian concentration on Bakhmut put its other frontlines into jeopardy. I and others have suggested for quite some time that the Russian forces will use the southern Zaporizhia region for a large thrust into the far back of the Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut.

The Russian moves against the third and fourth Ukrainian defense lines will likely be supported by a move from the south that will liberate the rest of the Zaporiziha and Donetsk oblast.

Aside from those operations the Russian command has sufficient number of troops available to run another major attack. This could come from the north into the Kharkiv region behind the Ukrainian troops currently attacking the Russian lines further east.


Source: Live UA Map - bigger

The Military Land Deployment map, sympathetic to the Ukrainian side, shows just three Territorial Defense brigades covering a 100 kilometer long southern defense line. These brigades are infantry rich but not mobile. They have only little heavy equipment. The Ukrainian 65th Mechanized Brigade is the only capable force in the area. It is screening Zaporizhzhia city but has been heavily bleeding it its position for quite a while.

One Motorized Infantry brigade, the 56th, was added to the southern front some six days ago. Back in August this brigade had been severely mauled in its defense of Peski at the eastern front. It has since been reconstituted with new conscripts and a smorgasbord of 'western' delivered equipment. It can not be regarded as a fully capable unit.


bigger

There is no Ukrainian artillery brigade in the sector. There are thereby no counter-artillery capabilities available.

The attacking Russian force is the 58th army of the Russian Federation. These are not lightly armored, air deployable VDV forces like those who fought around the Hostomel Airport airport near Kiev. These are not militia of the Donbas republics seen on the eastern front. These are not Chechen forces storming Mariupol. These are not the Wagner mercenaries surrounding Bakhmut.

This is the real Russian army, the Red one, with all its heavy resources and capabilities to wage combined arms warfare.

The first probing Russian attacks in the area were launched two days ago. The Ukrainian lines immediately broke down and the Russian forces advanced some 5 kilometer on the very first day. Yesterday they advanced further.

Everything in red and yellow north of the closed red line are recent Russian advances.


Source: ISW - bigger

A few weeks ago, in an interview with the Economist, the Ukrainian army commander general Zaluzhny called a Russian attack at this time the "worst" possible situation:

But the main reason Russia has dragooned so many young men, the generals believe, is to go back on the offensive for the first time since its bid to overrun Donbas fizzled out in the summer. “Just as in [the second world war]…somewhere beyond the Urals they are preparing new resources,” says General Zaluzhny, referring to the Soviet decision to move the defence industry east, beyond the range of Nazi bombers. “They are 100% being prepared.” A major Russian attack could come “in February, at best in March and at worst at the end of January”, he says.

Zaluzhny has claimed to be building reserves but he has since send even more troops to Bakhmut:

The temptation is to send in reserves [to Bakhmut]. A wiser strategy is to hold them back.
...
“May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me,” says General Zaluzhny. “It’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year.”

It is unlikely that any reserves he currently has are equipped, trained and battle ready. They will be too small to stop a fully mechanized Russian attack through the rather sparsely settled southwest of Donetzk province.

The aim of the Russian thrust in the south will not be to take cities like Zaporiziha. The aim is to bring the main transport routes, railways and roads, from west-Ukraine to the front in east Ukraine under Russian artillery fire. This will prevent not only the re-supply for the Ukrainian troops on the eastern front but also their exit from the front line. A 100 kilometer (60 miles) thrust to the north would mostly do that. A complementary thrust from the north towards south, which may or may not be coming, would finally close the cauldron.

Posted by b on January 21, 2023 at 9:56 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Hmmm, off-topic trash talk from sock puppets and net trools. Dispensing fake arguments and poopaganda of horse hockey. Is truly bad today. A vanity attempt to overturn an argument already set in concrete.

Does one wonder who benefits?

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jan 22 2023 12:34 utc | 301

They can't kill Zelensky the army would take over forever.
As far as the reports on the 100 000 dead Russians the general stated " You can't be sure with the fog of war...I think last time I reported 100 000"
If memory serves me correctly last time he said something like " according to Ukrainian intelligence " whatever thats worth.

His last bit where he said negotiating will take place when Ukraine has all of it's territory back is concerning

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 22 2023 12:34 utc | 302

Just thought of a super simple analysis.

Various pundits I read yesterday say Ukraine has basically put up two complete armies this past year and both are completely destroyed. Doesn't even matter which articles from yesterdays reading list and you can agree or not. They are now fighting with army number three.

No way is army number three as capable as army number one. Russia will grind through army number three same as the other two. There will be no army number four.

There is already an approaching vacuum in Kiev. Filling the vacuum with press releases and American officers will not accomplish anything. This has been the war of the press release. Works great for hypnotized Boobus Americanus. On the ground it means nothing.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 22 2023 12:42 utc | 303

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 21 2023 18:39 utc | 101
«There is a secret document, called the Chancellor Act, which every incoming chancellor has to sign, which surrenders large parts of our sovereignty to the US until 2099.»

Sovereignty is not a matter of signatures on paper, it is a matter of power. Can Germany do without USA-controlled markets and USA controlled raw material supplies? No. And if the USA and France and England "sanction" or blockade Germany, can Germany defeat them? No.

Every german government knows that Germany lacks the power to be anything but a vassal state, the only consolation is that England and France are in the same situation, and they know it well, since Suez in 1956.

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 22 2023 12:50 utc | 304

But do you really believe that the increase of CO2 in the athmosphere, which has climbed from 280 ppm to 420 ppm

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 22 2023 11:29 utc | 296

I posted an answer on the not Ukraine open thread not to spam over this thread.

Posted by: LP | Jan 22 2023 12:51 utc | 305

"Red Shirts"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redshirt_(stock_character)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redshirts_(novel)

I'm wondering if part of the reason why Russia has had somewhat better than expected results on the battlefield in the recent past, now, and looking to continue that trend in the future, is because Ukrainian conscripts are waking up to having been labeled as "Redshirts" by the higher ups, and the Azov types who are behind them as minders.

"In other media, the term "redshirt" and images of characters wearing red shirts have come to represent disposable characters destined for suffering or death."

"their reality and timeline are under periodic influence of a badly written television show from the past"

Sounds about right, with Zelenskyy in the role of the scenery chewing star, a megalomaniac who puts William Shatner's Captain Kirk to shame.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 22 2023 12:53 utc | 306

@shadowbanned
I am sorry to say, but no. Snow vovered landscapes for months have never been the rule.

There is a common misconception in the climate debate. Climate is NOT ment to be stable. There had been decades without any snow in central europe in the middle ages. A million years ago the global temperatures were 8°C warmer than today with co2 rates about 3 times higher than today (tooday about 420 bpm back then about 1200bpm). The time 1mio years ago was the golden age for global flora and fauna just because a rate of about 1000 bpm co2 is the ideal rate for most plants. A rate below 250 bpm won the other hand eould make photosynthesis next to impossible and the planet would die. The antarctica as was siberia was green etc. The data about this period comes from both north and south. There is no sign of a co2 tipping point after which a greenhouse effect kicks in and becomes is unstopable. There obviously hasnt been a greenhouse efrct a million years sgo, earth has not become venus obviously.

Anyways, what i wanna say is that climate never was stable, there were times when all of europe starved because of consecutive summers without temperatures above 10°C and times when mankind prospered because it got warmer. (Warm temperatures as a rule of thumb lead to prosperity.) The thing is for millions of years climate changed and humans attributed it to ghosts under stones in a valley somewhere in the woods. Now suddenly some people discovered a very complex system that is driving climate change and are afraid of its complexity. Now a lot of people are afraid because they learned that there is a system in place for billions of years and they dont control it.

I know the upcoming strawman. Climate denier etc. But actualy its quite the opposite. Climate has changed. Always. Humans influenced and influence it. They adopted to it. Now humans want to control instead of adopting.

But all of it is just a distraction. There is a scientific endeveour about understanding a complex system which may or may not lead to a lot of new understanding about it. A lot of wrong predictions are backed in the cake just because wrong conclussions are the way of the scientific enterprice.

The other endeavour is a political one which works totally independent of the scientific one. Its goals are control and power. As always. And the climate is just used to as the argument to achieve this goal. If you want me to i can send you the club of rome publications in which they searched for a new threat to control the societies after the end of the Ussr and where they literally "came up with the idea of climate change" because it enables the powerfull to mark "humanity as a whole as the enemy".

Posted by: Orgel | Jan 22 2023 12:54 utc | 307

Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in Ukraine today, January 22nd. This is reported by eyewitnesses on social media.

In particular, he was sighted in Bucha in the Kyiv region.

According to media reports, the great friend of Ukraine has already visited the site of the mass grave of the victims of the Russian invasion in Bucha.

As we previously reported, Boris Johnson is planning a trip to Ukraine to support President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

We add that Johnson has expressed confidence that Ukraine will win the 2023 war.

Novyny vid Korrespondent.net in Telegram. Subscribe to our channel https://t.me/korrespondentnet

Posted by: Bonfire Night | Jan 22 2023 13:05 utc | 308

«There is a secret document, called the Chancellor Act, which every incoming chancellor has to sign, which surrenders large parts of our sovereignty to the US until 2099.»

I suspect this is one of those old floaters on the Internet. It is meaningless.
There are probably residual powers of Four Power Agreement but I bet they are few. The US has no special privileges unless Germany granted them after 1949 because US had NO standing separate from France and Britain and USSR. Even after creation of GDR in SBZ Allied Officers could walk through Brandenburg Gate into East Berlin so long as they wore formal dress with porte d'epee.

Das Besatzungsstatut wurde mit der Ratifizierung der Pariser Verträge (23. Oktober 1954) am 5. Mai 1955 – zehn Jahre nach Kriegsende – durch den zweiten Deutschlandvertrag ersetzt und aufgehoben. Dazu lautete es im Artikel 1:

„(1) Mit dem Inkrafttreten dieses Vertrages werden [die drei Besatzungsmächte] das Besatzungsregime in der Bundesrepublik beenden, das Besatzungsstatut aufheben und die Alliierte Hohe Kommission […] auflösen. (2) Die Bundesrepublik wird demgemäß die volle Macht eines souveränen Staates über ihre inneren und äußeren Angelegenheiten haben.“
Im Artikel 5 wird jedoch deutlich, dass neben dem Recht auf die Stationierung von Streitkräften weitere Vorbehalte existierten. So dürfen von den Alliierten „im Falle eines Angriffs oder unmittelbar drohenden Angriffs ohne Einwilligung der Bundesrepublik“ Truppen in das deutsche Bundesgebiet verlagert werden.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliiertes_Vorbehaltsrecht

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 22 2023 13:05 utc | 309

The main driver for CO2 alarm is the "C", carbon. Carbon (coal) is the cheapest form
of energy. If carbon burning can be regulated by the rich, then access can be restricted
to the poor, and they can be kept enslaved.


Posted by: Cindy Martin | Jan 22 2023 12:25 utc | 298

The West doesn't like the idea of coal in China and India, oil and gas in Russia, Middle Eastern countries and Venezuela, or its own militant coal miners (looking at you, Thatcher), much less the risk of nuclear proliferation due to the spread of nuclear energy leading to a weakening of its own hegemony (a relationship often articulated by anti-nuclear groups, despite being claimed as a conspiracy theory defined as necessarily unreliable).

That's why climate change, originally on the fringes of the environmental movement, has been escalated into the mainstream.

Just as the dangers of tobacco have been exaggerated more than tenfold to rationalize brutal interventions in people's lifestyles. Even though real life expectancy has been in long-term decline, medical interests can use distorted life expectancy data and risk ratio data to rationalize whatever they want and pass themselves off as science.

Of course, I'm very happy to let those big corporations like the Koch, ExxonMobil, BP Shell or British American Tobacco suffer. But if the Guardian started talking about evil expanding coal industry of India & China or the big bad Russian state-owned oil company, you know what their agenda is.

Posted by: Colin | Jan 22 2023 13:10 utc | 310

‘His last bit where he said negotiating will take place when Ukraine has all of it's territory back is concerning

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 22 2023 12:34 utc | 302’

Do I misunderstand! Is this a joke? If you have all your territory back what do you negotiate. Another Krym lease?

Posted by: Inki | Jan 22 2023 13:12 utc | 311

@ Orgel | Jan 22 2023 12:54 utc | 307
@ Colin | Jan 22 2023 13:10 utc | 310

Puhlease, kindly take your OT to the 'Open Thread 2023-17' (Not Ukraine), thank you.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 22 2023 13:25 utc | 312

In regards to Russian casualties, BBC led a serious OSINT effort (tracking funerals etc.) to tally Russian losses and they quietly wound it down because it wasn't delivering the numbers they wanted. Even without knowing the numbers, that in itself is quite telling.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 22 2023 13:28 utc | 313

@ Posted by: shadowbanned | Jan 22 2023 9:28 utc | 269

Reading this thread takes me back to my youth, before we had a TV:

Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men. The Shadow(banned) knows!

https://youtu.be/8JSroiDGJ3E

One could take the time to look at sunspot activity coming out of the last solar minimum. It has accelerated almost twice as fast as the normal solar cycle. So based on provable, testable science we can safely predict the next couple of years will be warmer than normal.

I am usually tolerant of the AWG caused by carbon fuel crowd, because as a true Conservative (aka conservationist) I think it is prudent to use these "very slow to renew" resources wisely. And if the science (propaganda) behind it is laughably bad, so what, the end justifies the means.

As for Great Barrington, you seem oblivious to your own cognitive dissonance, you state:

The global economy need to shrink by a factor of 100x and transition from predatory capitalism to steady state scientific communism in order to save humanity from self destruction, which is to be accomplished by reduction of population by a factor of 40x and per capita consumption by a factor of 2-2.5X (and convergence of everyone onto the same living standard).

Yet you claim that to support "Great Barrington" is to support genocide, as laughable as that claim is. How else do you get your desired 40x population reduction?

Finally, you claim that vaccinations were responsible for the decline in covid deaths in the later stages of the covid crisis. False, the declining death rate is because high numbers of elderly and vulnerable were disproportionally effected in the first year. Since then, death rates for mutated covid are at the lower end of the range of a typical seasonal flu. Think and act according.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 22 2023 13:44 utc | 314

DPR Daniil Bezsonov: "It is not ironic that the Germans will supply the Ukrainians with 19 old Leopard 2 tanks, which they use in exercises to simulate the enemy as targets. This is a trial run to see how Russia reacts. They are gradually accustoming us, as well as the Germans themselves, to supplies of this kind. No reaction to this means no reaction to deliveries of anything else."

But but but Marty from Amerika said it's ok, slow is best, Gherasimov is the best in Milky Way. I think they should switch places for a month, Daniil can have Marty's taxi driver job in Amerika and Marty must move to Donetsk to contemplate artillery duels and life in occupied territories.

Posted by: rk | Jan 22 2023 13:48 utc | 315

@Karlof1
Tank chat getting louder.
Boris Johnson in Bucha today.
Vid https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1617138115340009472
>The UK is discussing with its NATO allies the supply of Leopard 2 tanks and other modern military equipment to Ukraine." - UK Foreign Minister James Cleverley
> Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the creation of a new unit for Western tanks
> Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Sunday criticized the German authorities for not deciding to transfer tanks to Ukraine
"Germany's attitude to this issue is unacceptable," media quoted the prime minister as saying.
> The prime minister added that if Berlin refuses to transfer its tanks to Kiev, Poland and other countries will form a "small coalition" ready to supply Kiev with their modern tanks and other military supplies.
https://twitter.com/azgeopolitics

Bernard-Henri Lévy stepped out of his crypt to issue a directive:
>… “#Scholz is right to be haunted by the time where death was a “master of #Germany” (Paul Celan). But in 2023? The cult of force and heritage of fascism are in Russia. The resistance to this and the heritage of the Great Patriotic War are in #Ukraine. So, send the #Leopards !”
https://twitter.com/BHL

>…Also self-promotion of his movie, #SlavaUkraini….
“……Pleading for #Ukraine to be given all it needs to win. Cannons, tanks & even planes. This is the only solution for peace.”
{Literally Bombing for peace}

Anders Auslund of the Atlantic Council… berating Germans who want to live in peace, as “non human”.
>…3. A curious German confusion is between the USSR & Russia. Many Germans who speak in public do not seem to realize that German troops in the World War II killed proportionately more Ukrainians & Belarusians than Russians (
@TimothyDSnyder
>…Therefore ignorant Germans think they owe Russians but not Ukrainians & Belarusians. Time to catch up with elementary history.
>… What disturbs me most, if these are not Russian bots (which I hope), are seemingly German voices that claim that if Germany just stopped supporting Ukraine, it could develop good profitable relations with Russia. Such cynicism is indefensible.
>… An almost as bad real German attitude is: Let us live in peace! We are not concerned about what happens in Ukraine. These people could not care less about how many civilian Ukrainians or hospitals that are bombed to death. These people are not human.

Ok. So Germans =
“not human”, when waging war against Europe
“not human”, when pleading for peace in Europe.
Doesn’t allow for much humanity for Germans. Huh.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 22 2023 13:52 utc | 316

Cindy Martin @ 298


If carbon burning can be regulated by the rich, then access [to coal] can be restricted to the poor, and they can be kept enslaved.

I'm not quite sure about what you mean - poor countries being enslaved because they must burn coal (?) - and how would this keep them enslaved?

Is "climate change" a propaganda tool to keep Russia discredited, because she is the world's leading provider of coal and hydrocarbons, and still dependent on revenue from these exports? Of course this would explain why the topic is unpopular in the AfD, here at MoA and even at RT.

But, for the Russians and their friends (which includes me) there is no reason for concern. For how can they be in the focus of criticism while other countries (Germany) switch back to burning coal, in order to become independent of Russian gas? What a disgrace to the German Greens who should know that each Megajoule obtained from burning coal releases roughly twice as much CO2 as one Megajoule obtained from burning gas. Therefore, gas is the perfect transition fuel, for the transition from coal to renewables. Merkel seemed to know this, but I wonder how many Germans know it even today. We are being kept in ignorance like babies.

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 22 2023 13:57 utc | 317

Posted by: cameron232 | Jan 22 2023 10:59 utc | 288

Psychological projection at its finest, Milley is undoubtedly describing Ukrainian casualties. I would honestly be surprised if the real Russian casualties were a tenth of those numbers given. BTW, this is the same Milley who lied about Trump launching a preemptive nuclear strike on China to justify breaking US federal law, so I would take anything he says with two fistfuls of salt.

Posted by: Monos | Jan 22 2023 14:02 utc | 318

@rk | Jan 22 2023 13:48 utc | 315

DPR Daniil Bezsonov: "It is not ironic that the Germans will supply the Ukrainians with 19 old Leopard 2 tanks, which they use in exercises to simulate the enemy as targets."
I trained with Leopards as infanterist in 1979... they are decades old.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 22 2023 14:05 utc | 319

@grunzt | Jan 22 2023 13:57 utc | 317

Why don't you drop the climate hysteria in this thread, or else I will have to reply.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 22 2023 14:07 utc | 320

Yet you claim that to support "Great Barrington" is to support genocide, as laughable as that claim is. How else do you get your desired 40x population reduction?

You reduce population by limiting the birth rate, not by increasing the death rate. The latter is a recipe for collapse, precisely what we try to avoid.

And doing it through COVID is the most idiotic thing imaginable given what COVID does to the brain even in the young.

We want a sane rational population, not everyone with early onset dementia at 40.

Finally, you claim that vaccinations were responsible for the decline in covid deaths in the later stages of the covid crisis. False, the declining death rate is because high numbers of elderly and vulnerable were disproportionally effected in the first year. Since then, death rates for mutated covid are at the lower end of the range of a typical seasonal flu. Think and act according.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 22 2023 13:44 utc | 314

You are a scientifically illiterate ignoramus. I am not going to waste further time with you other than to point out this:

The mild Omicron that is "at the lower end of the range of a typical seasonal flu" ran riot in Hong Kong last year and caused a NYC-in-March-2020 situation despite 70% vaccination (because that wasn't usual Western 70%, i.e. 95% in the old and 50% in the young, but they had a lot of elderly unvaccinated). It is very marginally less deadly (something like 0.95x) than the Wuhan WT in naive subjects.

And it is still killing ~1,000 people a day in the US (the official numbers are a complete fake at this point), all throughout the year. A very bad flu season is 50,000...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jan 22 2023 14:08 utc | 321

Anders Auslund Twitter - inhuman Germans
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1616927945997824000
~~~~
#FreetheLeopards!!!
EuroMaiden Press:
“If Germany won't free the Leopards, Poland to build smaller coalition to send tanks to Ukraine - @MorawieckiM
"We will not passively watch Ukraine bleed to death. Ukraine and Europe will win this war -- with or without Germany," he said
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1617151666221993986

Twitter: So, what would happen if Poland Spain Canada Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Greece Turkiye deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine without @OlafScholz’s consent.
Well, these countries would be put on the list of countries the German arms industry is not allowed to sell to... which would devastate the German arms industry.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1617125952873545729

>…”Ignore the Germans, give Ukraine Leopard 2, and get rid of the German arms industry, so Berlin can never hold the continent hostage again.
A win, win, win situation for Europe.”

>… "US offers used tanks from its own stocks plus long term industrial partnership to every European country that can deliver Leopard 2 to Ukraine, German defence industry circles claim. "Each country that accepts US offer is lost for German defence industry".
https://www.nzz.ch/international/kampfpanzer-leopard-2-us-ruestungsinteressen-lassen-scholz-zoegern-ld.1722377

The reasons, on the other hand, have less to do with Ukraine, but more decisively with Lloyd Austin, the USA and its national interests:
The Americans are just waiting for the Europeans to give their Leopard 2 to Ukraine.
Because then they can offer their own tanks as a replacement.
After helicopters, fighter jets and missiles, the Ukraine war offers the USA a unique opportunity to gain a foothold in the European arms market with armored vehicles and to oust the German competition.
They don't want to miss this opportunity.
The Americans make no secret of this. In the 1960s, they founded the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, an agency under Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Their job is to convince states to buy American weapons. The aim is to bind them to the US in this way in the long term. For the Americans, this has several advantages.………

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 22 2023 14:15 utc | 322

I’ll leave the report to Down South.
But there’s been more movement on the front line.
Julian Röpke not a happy bot

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 22 2023 14:18 utc | 323

What a disgrace to the German Greens who should know that each Megajoule obtained from burning coal releases roughly twice as much CO2 as one Megajoule obtained from burning gas.

That is actually not true, because methane is nearly two orders of magnitude more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2, and it leaks all throughout the process of being pumped out and transported to its final destination. At a rate quite a bit higher than 1-2%.

So the overall impact of gas is actually worse.

But be that as it may, the more important point is that...

Therefore, gas is the perfect transition fuel, for the transition from coal to renewables. Merkel seemed to know this, but I wonder how many Germans know it even today. We are being kept in ignorance like babies.

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 22 2023 13:57 utc | 317

...this is complete absurdity.

There will never be a transition to renewables, or rather, there will never be a transition to renewables at the current scale of consumption.

When whatever scatter remains of humanity are gathering around wood fires as our ancestors did way way back in the days, they will be relying on "renewables". And will be "sustainable", as in relying on the energy flows through the ecosystem, not on energy stores accumulated over eons.

But civilization at its current scale cannot run on renewables, it is physically impossible. Even more impossible is to keep having economic growth.

It could in theory be done with some renewables, plus heavy reliance on nuclear as the primary load carrier, but if and only if the overall footprint is drastically reduced. Not by one, but by more like two orders of magnitude. We made the decision not to do that a long time ago.

Which, again, is why we have a war, and it is going to escalate. For the last scraps..

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jan 22 2023 14:18 utc | 324

Please take the covid and climate change to the other thread.

Posted by: morongobill | Jan 22 2023 14:23 utc | 325

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 22 2023 12:32 utc | 300

Just a short "shout out" to let you know how much I appreciate your contributions here. Rock on!

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jan 22 2023 14:52 utc | 326

Romania.
telegram: Arrival of NATO E-3B AWACS aircraft at forward air bases in Romania in order to reduce the time for flight to the positional area (usually flying from Turkey and Western Europe)
U.S. expands military presence in Romania 22.01.2023 02:23
The United States on Saturday made the final decision to extend the deployment period of a brigade of Romania s 101st Airborne Division by another nine months, starting in January 2023, writes The New York Times, citing representatives of the U.S. administration.
Soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division.
The brigade currently in Romania includes about 4,000 men.
Within two months, the rotation of military personnel is planned. They will be replaced by another U.S. brigade from the same division.
In addition, staff officers and a major general from the U.S. 10th Mountain Division will be deployed to Romania to command the troops.

The U.S. military personnel, as before, will be at the Mihail Kogalniceanu air base, located less than 100 km from the Ukrainian border.
At the same time, they conduct regular exercises in close proximity to the border.

The U.S. sent its military to Romania in early 2022 to strengthen NATO's eastern flank. In the summer, the contingent stationed there was increased to a brigade.
The U.S. military command had previously explored the possibility of transferring it to another NATO base in Eastern Europe, but opted for Romania. Brigadier General John Lubas, deputy commander of the famous 101st Airborne Division that is deployed in Romania, argues that his subordinate soldiers are ready to defend every inch of NATO's land at any time.
The U.S. Land Forces' 101st Airborne Division has returned to Europe 78 years after landing on the beaches of Normandy.
The deployment was made as a result of the U.S. firm commitment to the security of the Black Sea region and its NATO Allies, the U.S. Embassy in Bucharest said some time ago in a statement.
Military analyst Aurel Cazacu considers that the presence of elite U.S. military in Romania acts on several directions.
"First of all, being a famous unit, the 101st Airborne Division discourages the Russians and this is vital when we are dealing with a desperate Putin.
Then, perhaps more importantly, these elite U.S. soldiers are 'ready to fight.' They can react and fight back if needed in just a few hours.
In addition, they train here with Romanian soldiers, which is extremely beneficial for the tactical training of the MApN troops", said Aurel Cazacu.

In addition to the soldiers of the famous 101st Airborne Division who are part of the combat brigade whose deployment was announced by President Biden in Madrid, at Mihail Kogalniceanu there are about 2,000 U.S. troops, and a part of them are from the composition of the 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment (2nd Cavalry Regiment) and arrived in Romania with all their Stryker armoured vehicles after the invasion of Ukraine.
At that time they joined around 700 other American soldiers, organized in a battle group, equipped with Stryker transports, Bradley fighting machines, Abrams tanks and Black Hawk and Apache helicopters, which had already been in the military base in Constanta County for a long time.

NYT ROMANIA
https://adevarul.ro/stiri-interne/evenimente/nyt-sua-va-extinde-prezenta-militara-a-celor-2236329.html

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 22 2023 14:52 utc | 327

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jan 22 2023 14:18 utc | 324

Our beloved Earth has experienced five Ice Ages. Including "Snowball Earth". Mother Nature's got this. We puny humans are along for the ride.

And, there is a difference between dying "with" Covid and dying "from" Covid. You should be more concerned with the excess deaths associated with the experimental genetic modifiers fraudulently marketed and mandated as vaccines. But, you're not.

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jan 22 2023 15:02 utc | 328

The U.S. Land Forces' 101st Airborne Division has returned to Europe 78 years after landing on the beaches of Normandy.

I find US mentality incomprehensible nowadays but I feel certain in 1944 the 101st Airborne exited aircraft with parachutes rather than landed on beaches...........

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 22 2023 15:14 utc | 329

Paul Greenwood @309

The teller is quite simple. Germany remains and has remained an occupied nation since 5-8-45. The U$$A, Perfidious Albion and the mostly creepy regimes in Paris have after all that while refused to sign a peace treaty with any recognized German government.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 22 2023 15:21 utc | 330

Colin 287

Yes, do read some scientific papers about vaccines. In particular on ‘vaccine imprinting.’ You will learn that the immune system memory B cells imprint on the first version of the virus it sees, responding to a related virus by massively producing antibodies to the first virus. This is true for influenza as well, whether you are speaking of infection post vaccination, or serial infection to different flu strains with no vaccination.. Was predictable for Covid vaccine as well. You are incorrect about severity of infection post Covid vaccination and reinfection severity. Mostly less severe, even though antibodies produced are not a perfect match to the new strain. This makes good evolutionary sense, if you consider the 12 days it takes for antibodies to form from exposure to a novel virus versus two or three days for memory B cells to start churning out massive quantities of imperfectly matched but still partially effective antibodies to the original strain. Maybe ‘Old Microbiologist’ could point you to some papers on this, but this is off topic for this thread.

But I agree with you about the centrality of oil to this conflict. I’ve been reading the history of oil in The Prize, Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, by Daniel Yergin, 1991. Baku, in Tsarist Russia was the 2nd place in the world to develop oil fields, after Pennsylvania. Two brothers of Alfred Nobel, with Rothschild money in the 1870’s were critical in the development of the Baku fields. Germany’s invasion of Russia in WWI was partly for access to Baku which it failed to acquire. Shortage of oil supply was a major cause of loss of WWI, while Russia was able to supply 40% of Britain’s supply during that war. In WWII, Germany again failed to get Baku oil, and was forced to launch a coal gasification project to try to fuel its tanks and planes. Inadequate oil supply was a major cause of Germany’s defeat again, though this time it was American oil that supplied the oil, In the Africa theater, Rommel and his tanks were finally defeated when oil for the tanks could no longer be supplied.

This Ukraine conflict is no different, the logistics of oil supply is critical. By destroying the electrical grid, Russia has forced the use of a relatively small number of diesel engines to bring weapons and fuel for vehicles and tanks to the front. As this becomes increasingly difficult, lack of sufficient oil at the front will play a roll in Ukraine’s ultimate defeat.

Posted by: mjh | Jan 22 2023 15:31 utc | 331

Shadowbanned: The biggest killer for many months now have been the MRNA vaccines. One only needs to consider the cases of those vaxxed young professional athletes dying right there on the field for proof.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 22 2023 15:32 utc | 332

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 22 2023 15:14 utc | 329

No disrespect to the legendary Screaming Eagles but their fantasized introduction into an old school artillery/armor ground and pound attritive engagement - with the fricking Russians - is like booking Yanni as an opening act for Iron Maiden. Not likely to work out well. Nice to know ya boys. We'll tell the World your story. This entire affair is unfathomable insanity.

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jan 22 2023 15:33 utc | 333

In order to facilitate these apologies for capitalist rule and presentations of neo-liberal ideology perhaps we could institute a thread for all those who believe that Covid doesn't matter (at least not when compared with the sacred mission of keeping retail humming) and that the human impact on climate of 8 billion people living in a highly industrialised, constantly growing economy is no different from that of isolated bands of hunters and gatherers wandering over an earth in which there were few settlements and little agriculture.

After a century of anti-communist propaganda it is not surprising that some posting here cannot wean themselves from the habit of trotting out reasons why capitalism should be left to follow its blind instinct to accumulate and the market guaranteed its right to shape and end lives at will.

It was one of the saving graces of medieval society that while during the bubonic plague the streets were full of idiots blaming God for the deaths piling up, we know of none who actually denied that people were dying.

In the meantime could the Libertarians kindly keep their propaganda to the thread set apart for other questions?

Posted by: bevin | Jan 22 2023 15:35 utc | 334

Shadowbanned@324

One partial solution would be for an international ban on air-conditioning, with the only exceptions being hospitals and nursing homes. So good-by Phoenix and Lost Wages. Good riddance, say I.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 22 2023 15:37 utc | 335

Posted by: bevin | Jan 22 2023 15:35 utc | 334

And, yet ... you felt the need to opine on the issue. Now it can be dismissed, correct? The final authoritative word has been spoken.

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jan 22 2023 15:42 utc | 336

This is the Ukrainian conflict thread and since there is speculation that weather warfare is being utilized to keep conditions on the Donbas favourable to the defensive operations on account of warmer than normal temperature etc.... maybe possibly...the scientists and climate change adherents are admitting to spraying the atmosphere with barium and other particulate to reflect sunlight... because the only thing that change the Earth's climate is the sun. Btw we have entered a Grand solar minimum...a mini ice age...the last one caused the river Thames to freeze over. Any Western military equipment making it to Ukrainian forces is being dispersed in the rear...but I'd concentrating as it gets closer to the FEBA... Where it is getting destroyed....that seems to be the current strategy of attrition. We are all armchair generals ultimately....one of the first rules of warfare is deception... information supplied by official channels is manipulated or at very least censored first and most probably given a time lapse....so we really should let the dust clear abit before getting too excited.

Posted by: Joe | Jan 22 2023 16:01 utc | 337

@ shadowbanned [285]

Obviously Russia can kill Zelensky any day it wants, so the only possible conclusion is that this puppet is preferable to any likely replacement. I think Elensky's visit to Washington in December was equal parts solidifying US support for a huge weapons package, and an equal part of assuring the gay Jewish comedian that he is not on Washington's hit list. As with the US-paid-for assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem in 1963, the result will further destabilize and de-legitimize the puppet regime.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Jan 22 2023 16:04 utc | 338

MoA got another mention:

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/48243?single

"The Ukrainian army, egged on by its U.S. controllers, had put most of its resource into the static defense of the Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) - Soledar sector of the eastern front. An insane number of Ukrainian brigades..."

Posted by: David G Horsman | Jan 22 2023 16:11 utc | 339

@ Outraged | Jan 22 2023 11:12 utc | 292

agree.. thanks... lots of ot stuff going on here...

@ shadowbanned

you have some interesting ideas.. why not discuss them on the open threads, or moa week in review? i would be more receptive..

Posted by: james | Jan 22 2023 16:16 utc | 340

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 22 2023 12:50 utc | 304

Sovereign is matter of not having other country soldiers stationed on your soil *uninvited*. It is not matter of economy, markets or sanctions.
Germany was occupied 80 years ago and that didn't change.

If they, by some miracle, decided to expel Yankees by force, they would suddenly find out they are fighting using US technology which, for some reason, don't work or is remotely sabotaged.

Erdogan knew better with S-400, and Saddam found out hard way - if you are going to fight someone, you must not/can not use weapons supplied by them.

Posted by: Abe | Jan 22 2023 16:34 utc | 341

@ Abe | Jan 22 2023 16:34 utc | 341

it implies a complete shift in policy for germany which is like turning a gigantic ocean freighter around in a different direction.. this is why colour revolutions are only one of many tools of usa foreign policy.. the other more obvious one is lobbying/bribery of the political opposition parties to make sure usa foreign policy objectives are met..

Posted by: james | Jan 22 2023 16:38 utc | 342

Posted by: james | Jan 22 2023 16:38 utc | 342

Of course it would require gigantic shift.

It is not only color revolutions and bribery / blackmail. Like with Korea and Japan, Germany was occupied long ago by US. US then rewrote their constitutions and laws to suit US, placed people they like, rewrote history books, rewrote school curriculum, decided which industries country may or may not develop. They literally turned them into obedient nasal zombies.

If it suits to US, they will change what they like, not what country like. Just look at Japan and their anti nuclear stance. From rabidly anti nuclear country (with a great reason, considering suffering during WW2) US is moving it into pro-nuclear, because it suits to US to have nuclear armed Japan against China.

Not to mention what US does to Germany and whole Europe now, destroying them in every imaginable way.

Posted by: Abe | Jan 22 2023 16:48 utc | 343

@ abe.. i agree.. it is worse then how it looks to a casual observer... cheers..

Posted by: james | Jan 22 2023 16:54 utc | 344

Melaleuca @267

Thanks for link to Col. Black interview

Posted by: mjh | Jan 22 2023 17:22 utc | 345

Bismarck | Jan 22 2023 5:18 utc | 246

"This conflict must be negotiated by the U.S and Russia because the risk to everyone is far too great"

Wishful thinking, me thinks. The US made clear to all that there is no point "negotiating" anything with them. There is no integrity. There is no honor. There is no intent for anything but the destruction and dismemberment of Russia & China.

Zooming out a bit.

Survival for Russia and China dictates...

The unconditional surrender and complete disarmament of the US Empire, starting with rump Ukraine and stretching as far as the Empire reaches, is the only realistic ending here.

Posted by: DoesItReallyMatter | Jan 22 2023 18:57 utc | 346

Germany was occupied long ago by US. US then rewrote their constitutions and laws to suit US

Germany was occupied by USSR, USA, Great Britain, France..............

Germany did not have a "Constitution" in 1945 - it had the Weimar Constitution plus Enabling Act giving Adolf Hitler supreme power under Art 46 and fusing office of Chancellor and President

German "Verfassung" 1949 was written by Germans and was temporary until Germany reunited - at that time Germany forgot Art 146

Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland
Art 146

Dieses Grundgesetz, das nach Vollendung der Einheit und Freiheit Deutschlands für das gesamte deutsche Volk gilt, verliert seine Gültigkeit an dem Tage, an dem eine Verfassung in Kraft tritt, die von dem deutschen Volke in freier Entscheidung beschlossen worden ist.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 22 2023 19:25 utc | 347

Melaleuca multiple posts--

Thanks for your efforts on the Leopard Front. As we know, the Outlaw US Empire has no new tanks to sell anyone, just variants of the Abrams which is close to obsolete and useless in many areas. Further, Russia's anti-tank capabilities are even more formidable than what's been displayed in Ukraine to-date, and it has yet to commit its newest, the T-14 Armata.

When looking at all the types of weapons available for Russia, the vast majority are superior to NATO equivalent--not just hypersonics and AD systems. And the real-time results are immediately noted by the manufacturers of those weapons and transmitted to the designers so they can upgrade any deficiencies discovered. Nothing like that's being done by NATO as they continue to pour in ancient crap mainly because NATO lacks anything new. That NATO expected Ukraine to defeat Russia using Soviet Era weapons and without air superiority while Russia used its modern and upgraded Soviet Era gear while dominating the skies invited what we're seeing. But ultimately it's Ukraine's "leaders" who are responsible for the debacle, and no amount of NATO gear is going to salvage the situation--not even direct intervention with NATO troops as they'll enter into the same situation that's plagued Ukies, although NATO might attempt to regain control of the Air where it will find itself outmatched with predictable results.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 22 2023 19:30 utc | 348

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 22 2023 15:21 utc | 330

Vertrag über die abschließende Regelung in bezug auf Deutschland zwischen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik (den namensgebenden zwei deutschen Staaten) einerseits sowie Frankreich, der Sowjetunion, Großbritannien und den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika andererseits.

Der Zwei-plus-Vier-Vertrag gilt deswegen als die endgültige Friedensregelung mit Deutschland nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg und markiert somit das Ende der Nachkriegszeit.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zwei-plus-Vier-Vertrag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Final_Settlement_with_Respect_to_Germany

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 22 2023 19:30 utc | 349

Certain people designated as 'right wing' seem to be the least bellicose and the most knowledgeable about Europe's history:
https://twitter.com/thatdayin1992/status/1616410844191158272
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2023/01/the-wests-tankies-finally-get-their-way-in-ukraine-but-where-does-that-way-lead.html

Posted by: Shakesvshav | Jan 22 2023 20:45 utc | 350

@ Shakesvshav

This goes for the far left too, although its numbers are minuscule. I doubt Ajamu Baraka is still welcome in greenie circles, for instance, now that the American Greens are a war party like the two majors. In Germany the only credibly antiwar party isn’t AfD or Die Linke, but the Trotskyist SGP, whose membership doesn’t even number in the thousands.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 21:04 utc | 351

@282 Melaleuca "Update. Germans are almost confirmed to be sending 19, and the French 50.
We’re running a cow pat lotto on when the announcement is made."

I suppose that the announcement can be made by a suddenly-rotund Ursula Von Der Crazy, who will waddle up to the podium and preface her speach by admitting that, yes, yes, the rumors are true: she is "nearly pregnant"

Now, sure, you might be right. I don't know.

But I do know that it ain't over till the Fat Lady sings, and Scholz hasn't broken out the helmet and blonde pigtails. Not yet.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 23 2023 3:54 utc | 352

Where are you getting your info?

Posted by: Quartermaster | Jan 23 2023 11:54 utc | 353

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️Not an exact quote Joe Biden: If you want to attack America you will have F15's & nukes after you.
Quote Xi Jinping: Heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of steel.
Quote Declaration of Independence: That whenever any Form of Government becomes
destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it,
Americans have the absolute right to abolish or alter our government whenever it decides to deploy F15′s & nukes
against We the People. And the government has zero right to use military forces against us US.
Never underestimate the enemy
Pharmakia of Revelation 18:23
https://youtu.be/NyhkMeEgAZg?t=1 Pls like & link (esp on Breitbart) this video thank you. Over 16,000 views

Posted by: Son Of Ethan Allen | Jan 23 2023 17:25 utc | 354

@shadowbanned | Jan 22 2023 10:25 utc | 283

There is no US aircraft or AA missile that is a match for current Russian aircraft and missiles, and older stocks of US aircraft are hanger queens or worn out. Which means that even if your (incorrect IMO) hypothesis about wanting to dump these in Ukraine were correct, and even if Ukraine had or could obtain an unlimited supply of top-gun pilots (which they don't have and can't obtain in time to make a difference), and even if US aircraft did not have insane maintainance requirements which the Ukraine has no chance of providing, even if spares which the US does not have for its own aircraft were magically provided, and even if the Ukraine could somehow magically obtain the fuel required for aircraft use, and even if Russia did not destroy the runways with missiles and then destroy the aircraft at leisure, it would still be a turkey-shoot, with Russia being the hunters, and Ukrainians being the turkeys.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 24 2023 0:48 utc | 355

@Giuliano l'Apostata | Jan 22 2023 10:29 utc | 28

The entire 2022 global economy was USD 122 trillion. So it does rather seem as if, like 93.7% of all statistics cited on the Internet, as if your numbers were made up on the spur of the moment.

More to the point, when you spend USD 14 billion to produce an aircraft carrier that can be destroyed by a few million dollars worth of missiles from a quarter of the world away, spend USD 1.5 trillion on fighters that can't fly as intended but really, really want to kill their pilots, and blow $10 million per temperamental tank you can't rely on to fight, you run out out of money long before you do anything but embarrass yourself.

Which is exactly what the US has done, spending USD trillions on a military that has not prevailed in a single conflict with a significant opponent for over a century.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 24 2023 1:29 utc | 356

@ Hermit | Jan 24 2023 0:48 utc | 355
@ Hermit | Jan 24 2023 1:29 utc | 356

Artful perspicacious rhetorical evisceration. :)

Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 24 2023 4:57 utc | 357

@Colin | Jan 22 2023 10:59 utc | 287

"China's policies have not been accompanied by more downward transfers of wealth."

What on earth makes you imagine that? Has anyone documented this retraction of fundamental economics or did you make it up on your own?

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 24 2023 14:41 utc | 358

It is always, my delight. Quadrupled by having an audience smart enough to follow and sufficiently appreciative to mention it. Thank-you.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 24 2023 15:03 utc | 359

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