Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 21, 2023

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

The long expected Russian offensive in Ukraine has begun.

The Ukrainian army, egged on by its U.S. controllers, had put most of its resource into the static defense of the Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) - Soledar sector of the eastern front. An insane number of Ukrainian brigades, though many partially depleted, were concentrated on that 50 kilometer long front. This left other sectors nearly empty of Ukrainian troops.


Source: Military Land Deployment Map - bigger
I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

On the southern and northern sectors of the battle-line the Ukrainian forces have been thinned out and are only able to defend against minor forces.

The Ukrainian forces in the north and south are in the same position Russian troops had been in when the Ukrainian army last year launched a blitz attack in the Kharkiv region. The Russian screening force of some 2,000 boarder guards and federal police retreated and used its artillery to destroy the oncoming Ukrainian forces. The attack ran out of power and came to a halt after progressing some 70 kilometers on a rather large front. But Ukraine no longer has, unlike the Russians at that time, the artillery that is need to stop a larger thrust.

The big Ukrainian concentration in Bakhmut is now in an operational encirclement. The Russian forces have progressed north and south of the city and their artillery can easily control the western exit roads of Bakhmut. This a Verdun like situation. Russian artillery is by far numerical superior and can slaughter the Ukrainian troops at will. Even the U.S. military is now suggesting that Ukraine should give up on that city. Should the government in Kiev agree to that it will be a retreat under fire with likely high casualties. Not retreating though will make things even worse.


Source: Live UA Map - bigger

The Ukrainian concentration on Bakhmut put its other frontlines into jeopardy. I and others have suggested for quite some time that the Russian forces will use the southern Zaporizhia region for a large thrust into the far back of the Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut.

The Russian moves against the third and fourth Ukrainian defense lines will likely be supported by a move from the south that will liberate the rest of the Zaporiziha and Donetsk oblast.

Aside from those operations the Russian command has sufficient number of troops available to run another major attack. This could come from the north into the Kharkiv region behind the Ukrainian troops currently attacking the Russian lines further east.


Source: Live UA Map - bigger

The Military Land Deployment map, sympathetic to the Ukrainian side, shows just three Territorial Defense brigades covering a 100 kilometer long southern defense line. These brigades are infantry rich but not mobile. They have only little heavy equipment. The Ukrainian 65th Mechanized Brigade is the only capable force in the area. It is screening Zaporizhzhia city but has been heavily bleeding it its position for quite a while.

One Motorized Infantry brigade, the 56th, was added to the southern front some six days ago. Back in August this brigade had been severely mauled in its defense of Peski at the eastern front. It has since been reconstituted with new conscripts and a smorgasbord of 'western' delivered equipment. It can not be regarded as a fully capable unit.


bigger

There is no Ukrainian artillery brigade in the sector. There are thereby no counter-artillery capabilities available.

The attacking Russian force is the 58th army of the Russian Federation. These are not lightly armored, air deployable VDV forces like those who fought around the Hostomel Airport airport near Kiev. These are not militia of the Donbas republics seen on the eastern front. These are not Chechen forces storming Mariupol. These are not the Wagner mercenaries surrounding Bakhmut.

This is the real Russian army, the Red one, with all its heavy resources and capabilities to wage combined arms warfare.

The first probing Russian attacks in the area were launched two days ago. The Ukrainian lines immediately broke down and the Russian forces advanced some 5 kilometer on the very first day. Yesterday they advanced further.

Everything in red and yellow north of the closed red line are recent Russian advances.


Source: ISW - bigger

A few weeks ago, in an interview with the Economist, the Ukrainian army commander general Zaluzhny called a Russian attack at this time the "worst" possible situation:

But the main reason Russia has dragooned so many young men, the generals believe, is to go back on the offensive for the first time since its bid to overrun Donbas fizzled out in the summer. “Just as in [the second world war]…somewhere beyond the Urals they are preparing new resources,” says General Zaluzhny, referring to the Soviet decision to move the defence industry east, beyond the range of Nazi bombers. “They are 100% being prepared.” A major Russian attack could come “in February, at best in March and at worst at the end of January”, he says.

Zaluzhny has claimed to be building reserves but he has since send even more troops to Bakhmut:

The temptation is to send in reserves [to Bakhmut]. A wiser strategy is to hold them back.
...
“May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me,” says General Zaluzhny. “It’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year.”

It is unlikely that any reserves he currently has are equipped, trained and battle ready. They will be too small to stop a fully mechanized Russian attack through the rather sparsely settled southwest of Donetzk province.

The aim of the Russian thrust in the south will not be to take cities like Zaporiziha. The aim is to bring the main transport routes, railways and roads, from west-Ukraine to the front in east Ukraine under Russian artillery fire. This will prevent not only the re-supply for the Ukrainian troops on the eastern front but also their exit from the front line. A 100 kilometer (60 miles) thrust to the north would mostly do that. A complementary thrust from the north towards south, which may or may not be coming, would finally close the cauldron.

Posted by b on January 21, 2023 at 9:56 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page | next page »

aristodemos | Jan 21 2023 17:01 utc | 76


...German military tends to vote AFD.

That's what I also do, for lack of other options. I had never planned to vote for them, because the climate deniers seem to be prevalent there. But then AfD is the only party that does not support the government's anti-Russian policy - so voting for them is the only way to make my voice heard. I used to vote for "die Linke", but there are too many career oriented people in it, cow-towing to Uncle Sam. Still hoping that Linke-member Sarah Wagenknecht might exit "die Linke" and found her own party...


...we might witness massive rallies calling for all American occupational forces to leave Germany...

This is what should happen but there is not much going on - some activists meeting annually at Ramstein Air Force Base, but it doesn't make the news and goes unnoticed.
We are an occupied country just like Irak, Syria or Kosovo. If any German government was to decide to leave NATO and shut the American airbases down, the US would not leave, but use those airbases against us. There is a secret document, called the Chancellor Act, which every incoming chancellor has to sign, which surrenders large parts of our sovereignty to the US until 2099. See my post here .

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 21 2023 18:39 utc | 101

Sorry, in editing I missed "enumerated".

Posted by: juliania | Jan 21 2023 18:39 utc | 102

The biggest risk to Russia is a sudden public realistic peace offer from Ukraine. Public perception and world opinion could compel them to accept such an offer before they have completed desirable operation objectives.

Fortunately, 'the west' has been too blockheaded to make such an offer yet. Perhaps the 'Ukraine can win' or 'Russia is bleeding' delusion is still believed by the hivemind controlling the empire.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 21 2023 18:42 utc | 103

LoL agree the NATO meeting on Friday was a pathetic embarrassing clown show. Almost as bad as the Davos one LoL

A lot of speeches based 90% on fantasy and so far removed from reality that its not funny but sad and pathetic.

And no substantial decisions taken. More of the same cringe.

Cringy. Its all very very cringy in the West. LoL

Posted by: Comandante | Jan 21 2023 18:49 utc | 104

Martin Oline @ 13

Excellent analogy.

OohCanada @ 16

Air Defenses placed on the rooftops in Moscow also have a tremendous physiological effect on the population. It is a strong signal to harden yourselves for war.

paddy @ 17

The Abrams is good for an attacker that has complete control of the battle-space and logistics. The US has grown fat in their war planning which is designed to beating third rate military powers.

Posted by: circumspect | Jan 21 2023 18:52 utc | 105

Posted by: john | Jan 21 2023 17:53 utc | 92

Yes, sorry John! I was remembering Lady Macbeth's words before Duncan's sad demise - not really pertaining to the situation I hope, but Shakespeare is Shakespeare, so I reached for it.

All I can say is b inspired me with his rhetoric. I think, being me, I overreached.

;)

Posted by: juliania | Jan 21 2023 18:56 utc | 106

...but then, so did Lady Macbeth. (She retires gracefully to the garden and its sunshine.)

Posted by: juliania | Jan 21 2023 18:58 utc | 107

[] We are an occupied country just like Irak, Syria or Kosovo. If any German government was to decide to leave NATO and shut the American airbases down, the US would not leave, but use those airbases against us. There is a secret document, called the Chancellor Act, which every incoming chancellor has to sign, which surrenders large parts of our sovereignty to the US until 2099. See my post here .

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 21 2023 18:39 utc | 101

That was then 1945. In 2001-2022 so was Afghanistan...Taliban's subjugation. Taliban said, Yes, we can.

And take a page from US' Statecraft Manual.

Treaties, Agreements and Promises are meant to be broken unilaterally when it suits our interests.

The precedents of US breaking treaties and promises are from time immemorial.

Oh, in few years (less than 5) the USA will not be in a position to pay for or afford to keep the 800 bases installed around the world.

The dollar died on December 8th, 2022. Its Death Certificate, under the signature of KSA's Min. of Finance, Mohammed al-Jadaan, was issued January 18, 2023, in Davos, Switzerland during the gathering of billionaires and former heads of governments.

Just do it.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 21 2023 19:10 utc | 108

The NATO meeting seemed to be more about breaking Germany's back (or what's left of it), than helping Ukraine.

The new European order (Poland, Baltics, UK, Netherlands) wants to leverage the US (and vice versa) power to sideline Germany and in general the Franco-German axis within the EU. Germany and France are the only countries with real or potential weight to oppose US interests in Europe, therefore the idea must be cut out of them no matter the cost. A part of this is military dependency, and there's no better way to get there by disarming the already pitiful Bundeswehr. The Poles and the UK see this as their opportunity to become or stay relevant, respectively.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 21 2023 19:10 utc | 109

As Chuck Norris says to Richard Lynch in Invasion U.S.A: "It's time."

As Bernhard has tried to beat into our collective heads for the past eleven months, this is Russia's war to lose. Which means the war will end when Russia decides to end it. Ukraine doesn't get a say, and neither does the US.

Posted by: Monos | Jan 21 2023 19:16 utc | 110

b @10 :

Completely closing an encirclement leaves two choices for the enemy. Fight to death or give up. Many groups, like ISIS, will use the first choice.

But who'll encircle "US/Texas area" possibly then if needed for any other counter strikes ..?
Let's really hope RF will asap. be able to CUT or BLOCK most of possible shipment via trails/roads of the new "promised", but just already present new Ground- & Air-Attack systems, moving from Poland.
RF commanders should hopefully be aware that those "new" western more 'modern' weapons in-spe of intermediate stock can be "activated" ad-hoc by US/NATO if anything 'works wrong' for the UKR-Nazis, like just in Soledar/B. or southern front ...


Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 21 2023 19:19 utc | 111

108

Soon there will be the petroyuan, the petroruble, the petropeso and so forth.

There is no mechanism to stop it.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jan 21 2023 19:19 utc | 112

Outraged @38--

Thanks for filling in the sketch I made yesterday of the Russian offensive aimed North to Dnipro. Reports yesterday showed Russian troops beyond Orikhov and advancing. Whether they go North then East in b's scenario or cross the Dnieper and go West in mine remains to be seen. But given the road net in their zone of advance, the 58th ought to make excellent progress with so little resistance. Any assets diverted South will be ambushed by CAS and drone guided missiles. If Zaporizhzhia is so lightly screened, I'd anticipate Dnipro to have even lighter defenses and it's a much smaller urban area. Again, IMO given time of year the road net is critical for advancement of motorized troops. Yes, their right flank will need to be covered, but Russia has plenty of forces to accomplish that task.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 19:20 utc | 113

How not to build a winning army. It's actually more sad and depraved than funny. Can't wait for this approach to recruiting come to all of Europe:

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/30017

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 21 2023 19:21 utc | 114

Western media has grown practiced in the art of not covering Ukrainian casualties, both KIA and wounded severe enough to get hospitalized and/or put out of action, but if Russia can soon provide documentation of Ukrainian troops surrendering in droves, that could serve to puncture and deflate the narrative of Ukraine willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.

If Ukrainians start surrendering en masse, than Westerners who maintain some sense of decency will grow uneasy at the idea of being responsible for enabling the militarists to force Ukrainians to serve, and then forcing them to their doom.

The war mongers in the West have a bankrupt* ideology, and soon they will have bankrupted their support. I saw it happen with Viet Nam, then Iraq, and then Afghanistan, and I've been seeing familiar omens of that happening again.

The Signs and Portents are there, Bankman-Fried being exposed as a fraud, Biden's lies about his documents, Congressman George Santos being exposed as a fraud, the false claims about the COVID-19 vaccines, and so on. There's a new appetite among the public for exposes, and eventually that appetite gets fed.

* “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

“What brought it on?”

“Friends,” said Mike. “I had a lot of friends. False friends. Then I had creditors, too. Probably had more creditors than anybody in England.”

https://www.avclub.com/babylon-5-signs-and-portents-1798173567

Russian accent (from an American actor) in the video below, but I think of Boris Johnson when listening to the exchange. The globalists had their Mr. Morden speak to him, and promise him a renaissance of British power, wealth, and prestige. Fans of the show know how things worked out for those who cut deals with Mr. Morden. lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbckvO7VYxk

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 21 2023 19:26 utc | 115

There was a mention here yesterday about AFU snipers setting up on some islands in the Dnipro Kherson area, here's an update:

Information has been confirmed that the Ukrainian armed forces were developing a plan to seize the islands of Belogrudi and Bolshoi Potemkin. On the night of 21 January, two Ukrainian armed forces reconnaissance teams attempted to land on the adjacent islands of Bolshi Potemkin, and bold and decisive actions destroyed the enemy. Early in the morning of the same day, the enemy attempted unsuccessfully to land on the island of Belogrudi and was destroyed as well.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/30022

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 21 2023 19:27 utc | 116

LightYearsFromHome @81--

I've seen many of Putin's yachts--they're the entire Russian Navy.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 19:31 utc | 117

The biggest risk to Russia is a sudden public realistic peace offer from Ukraine. Public perception and world opinion could compel them to accept such an offer before they have completed desirable operation objectives.

Fortunately, 'the west' has been too blockheaded to make such an offer yet. Perhaps the 'Ukraine can win' or 'Russia is bleeding' delusion is still believed by the hivemind controlling the empire.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 21 2023 18:42 utc | 103

I don't think that's a risk anymore. Zelensky has implemented a national law where negotiating with the Russian president (Putin) is illegal.

Big Serge, and many others for a long time have correctly pointed out that the initial Ukraine's army has been destroyed, it was rebuilt by pumping all the Soviet equipment in the world from Ex Warsaw Pact, mass mobilization, those are gone.

Nato simply can't even match the Warsaw Pact inventories, that's why Ukraine is lost cause, that's why there are fractures. The war will suddenly get much worse, and Russia is in a much better position to take on the collective Nato equipment and army, than it was say, last summer and early Fall. They can predict any potential ukie offensive, and prepare their forces accordingly to absorb it. We might yet see an Ukie offensive, but it's getting increasingly harder to balance new would-be reserves, built up by Nato equipment vs. reinforcing existing positions. The low/no-trained conscripted cannon fodder can buy some time for building "new trained reserve", but that's simply unsustainable. Bakhmut scenario already proved that Nato trained reserves were thrown into holding Bakhmut and Soledar, approximately 5 brigades worth.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 19:34 utc | 118

The aim of the Russian thrust in the south will not be to take cities like Zaporiziha. The aim is to bring the main transport routes, railways and roads, from west-Ukraine to the front in east Ukraine under Russian artillery fire. This will prevent not only the re-supply for the Ukrainian troops on the eastern front but also their exit from the front line. A 100 kilometer (60 miles) thrust to the north would mostly do that. A complementary thrust from the north towards south, which may or may not be coming, would finally close the cauldron.

Great piece, b.

I believe it was Tsun Tzu who warned against completely surrounding troops. If you leave one avenue of escape that possibility will serve to weaken their resolve as things get really grim. If you box them in though, thereby depriving them of any hope of survival, then their will hardens as they become determined to take as many of the enemy down as possible before finally falling themselves. (Presumably those making their escape are easier to later cut down, being scattered and less cohesive, than those massed in force with more resources at hand and clear chains of command to stiffen morale.)

Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 21 2023 19:36 utc | 119

Air Defenses placed on the rooftops in Moscow also have a tremendous physiological effect on the population. It is a strong signal to harden yourselves for war.

Posted by: circumspect | Jan 21 2023 18:52 utc | 105

You would not believe how little the dayly life has changed for the main part of the Russian population since Feb. 2022. About an quarter of an hour worth of news per day, some voluntary activities at the office, lice donating some money or clothes or toys for Donbass kids, more work for some, less work for others, some imported stuff got a bit more expensive, no Instagramm influencers for teens to drool at - AND THIS IS IT, NOTHING MORE HAS CHANED. So all the talk about bracing for war is absolute BS. Right, Putin call for additional effort, but he is demanding it from his ministers and the plant directors, for most others all the possible changes are voluntary, no one demands anything.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jan 21 2023 19:38 utc | 120

Russian Foreign Ministry's statement today "in connection with the statements of the head of EU diplomacy Jean-Claude Borrell regarding the comparison of the policy of the United States and its allies towards Moscow with the actions of A. Hitler":

Statement by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Jean-Claude Borrell on foreign minister Sergey Lavrov's comparison of the policies of the United States and its allies towards Moscow with those of A. Hitler, cited by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a news conference on January 18 this year, sounds hypocritical, especially against the background of racist statements by the head of EU diplomacy, who divided the world into a "blossoming garden" in which "a billion EU and US citizens" live. and the "jungle" that is advancing on it, as well as the EU's open support for the Kiev neo-Nazi regime. Since 2014, the armed forces of Ukraine and nationalist battalions have been shelling peaceful cities of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions of Russia with impunity, killing civilians, including children. At the same time, the EU is training the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, preparing to supply even more weapons and military equipment that will continue to be used to kill civilians. The EU claims that there are no parallels, but they themselves turn a blind eye to the swastikas on the chevrons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Nazi flags and the very symbols with which more than 80 years ago the Europeans barbarically invaded our lands.

We would also like to note that the Russian Foreign Ministry has already received a huge number of appeals from citizens and non-governmental Jewish organisations, including the official statement of the Eastern Jewish Congress, with bewilderment at the calls by the Chairman of the European Jewish Congress (EJC) Ariel Muzykan, who is not authorized to make official comments on behalf of all Jews in European countries, to Sergey Lavrov to apologize.

Once again, we see how individual organizations are trying to pit different nations and peoples against each other. We have to remind you that it was our people who stood up more than 80 years ago to defend humanity from the plague of fascism, misanthropy, Nazism and aggressive imperialist militarism, without dividing it into nationalities. While the Nazis were poisoning Slavs, Jews, Gypsies and other nations in the same gas chamber, our fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers fought the Wehrmacht and freed the prisoners of concentration camps. It is their memory that we sacredly honor and will honor in the centuries. We must not forget that January 27 is annually celebrated in the world as the International Day of Commemoration of the Holocaust precisely as a sign of gratitude to the soldiers of the Red Army, who liberated on this day in 1945 the prisoners of the Nazi concentration camp "Auschwitz" (Auschwitz-Birkenau). At the end of the XX – the beginning of the XXI century, we were faced with the desire to discredit the role of our country in the fight against Nazism and neo-Nazism, with open Russophobia and calls for the "abolition of Russia". Any attempt to rehabilitate Nazism and racist practices must be resolutely opposed. This is what should unite peoples, not divide them.

In the ranks of the Red Army, as well as other armies of the anti-Hitler coalition, hundreds of thousands of Jews fought the Nazis. During the Great Patriotic War, about 501,000 Jewish soldiers served in the troops. Many of them went to the front as volunteers. Among the command staff of the Red Army, 305 generals and admirals were of Jewish nationality. During the war, 131 Jews were presented with the highest award - the title of Hero of the Soviet Union, including 45 - posthumously. 217 natives of Russia have the honorary title of Righteous Among the Nations, which is awarded to non-Jews who saved Jews during the Nazi occupation of Europe, the Holocaust, while risking their own lives. Among them were fighters of the Red Army. The greatest casualties among all the participants of the anti-Hitler coalition were suffered by the peoples of the Soviet Union. They remember well and not at a basic level the crimes committed against the citizens of our country, including the horrific crimes of the Holocaust. Ignoring the so-called "democratic coalition" of the West's glorification by the modern Ukrainian regime of nazis who committed crimes in Lviv, Babi Yar, Khatyn, ignoring the facts of the use of Nazi slogans, Nazi symbols and names in honor of SS divisions at the state level and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a distortion of the memory of the Holocaust and the victims of Nazism. Just like the numerous unpunished crimes against Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine and the statements of Ukrainian politicians that the murder of the maximum number of Russians is the goal of their struggle and existence.

I would like to ask where there were such structures as the EJC when monuments to the soldiers-liberators were demolished on the territory of Europe; when the Nazis marched through the capitals of European countries under anti-Semitic symbols and with Judeophobic slogans; when exactly did the Europeans try to torpedo our resolution at the UN to combat the glorification of Nazism?

It is never too late to admit our mistakes and make the right moral choice, so we call on Europe to raise its voice to combat anti-Semitism, Russophobia and other manifestations of discriminatory policies against certain nationalities and ethnic groups.

IMO, ordinary Europeans are very aware of the parallel that EU/NATO are emulating and ignoring; yet, it appears at Ramstein over the last two days some have thought of this and are very troubled by it--particularly the Germans for obvious reasons. And then there's the RoW looking on and easily seeing the parallel Russia's leadership have not just suggested but proven. Thus, the politics of allying with the Outlaw US Empire in its quest is becoming very costly.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 19:48 utc | 121

I'm sure Ukrainian Air Force will soon get lots of Eurofighter Typhoon, F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, JAS 39 Gripen and Rafale.

Posted by: Malwen | Jan 21 2023 19:50 utc | 122

Isn't the Falaise Pocket a better analogy than Verdun?

Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 21 2023 19:52 utc | 123

Posted by: Malwen | Jan 21 2023 19:50 utc | 122

I think there's a good reason why anyone with more than 3 brain cells in Nato hasn't even talked about this. They will simply end up like the 200 or so Mig-29, Su-27 fighters and Su-25 bombers. They are rarely seen anywhere, they sometimes try to shoot Harm missiles with "hit and run" but they are blind, and there's no evidence they've ever hit anything.

Of course they might still go ahead and give some more fighters, who knows.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 19:57 utc | 124

Posted by: Down South | Jan 21 2023 17:48 utc | 91 What they say: What they do:

Hungry is only one of several counties that are vague on what they are actually doing.

However you quote the President of Hungary. The President of Hungary has almost no power, it is largely a ceremonial position. It's the Prime Minister of Hungary who holds the power.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 19:59 utc | 125

LightYearsFromHome @ 114:

That approach of forcibly recruiting people off the street into the army or navy used to be common in England / Britain during the 1700s and well into the early 1800s. Royal Navy press gangs would round up adult men in areas near ports and force them to work on naval ships. Families of these men were often left destitute. The practice is known as impressment.

Other European nations did use impressment for their navies but only during times of war. The British used impressment during times of peace as well. The practice was one factor that led to the American Revolutionary War in 1776: the British used to press-gang Americans into serving in the Royal Navy.

Posted by: Jen | Jan 21 2023 20:01 utc | 126

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 19:34 utc | 118 "that's why Ukraine is lost cause,"

So it should be over shortly? Any ideas when that will be?

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 20:03 utc | 127

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 20:03 utc | 127

So what's your definition of "it being over"? When Zelensky starts to negotiate? There might not be an official, announced ending ever.

Just gradually fading away, along the resistance fading away. Maybe within next 2 years.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 20:05 utc | 128

Dima says that Russian stopped on Southern Front.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aES277w1lOI

Posted by: Sabo | Jan 21 2023 20:07 utc | 129

RT reports on a new poll showing citizens within the Outlaw US Empire increasingly disagree on the amount of aid being rendered to the MIC--er Ukraine:

"A third of Americans believe that the US has gone too far in its support for Ukraine in the present conflict, according to a new poll released on Wednesday. This is a sharp increase from late February, days after the conflict broke out, when just 7% said so.

"According to a Quinnipiac University national survey, 33% of adult respondents think Washington is doing too much to help Kiev, while 21% say the US is doing too little. 38% believe the amount of American aid is just right."

Of course, very few of those respondents really know the truth about the actual amount of aid being rendered.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 20:08 utc | 130

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 19:57 utc | 124

Looks like the Ukrainian air force flies about 10 - 20 sorties a day. Between 1/5 and 1/10 as many as Russia.

There are pictures and videos of Russian SAM equipment hit by something. In some cases likely HARMs. I'm not sure what you mean by blind as the HARMs will tell the pilot, likely through the rigged up tablet tapped to the instrument panel in pictures that are floating around that they seem a threat emitting. Then the pilot fires the HARMs.

And even if they are missing a lot, the threat forces the Russian SAMs to be much more careful about running their radars on a constant basis. Something they were not concerned about early in the war.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/01/21/see-russia-lost-an-s-400-launcher-in-ukraine-it-was-destroyed/ Some arguemnt if that is an S-400 or S-300 version something.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainians-sold-a-message-on-an-anti-radiation-missile-for-10-grand Raising money?

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 20:14 utc | 131

From Z and V Telegram channel complete with photos of Abrahms in action...
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/48215

The main tank of the US Armed Forces M1 Abrams was unsuitable for use in the winter

Despite the fact that the heavy combat vehicle has great power, only a few centimeters of snow could stop the armored vehicles. The tank just started to slide and roll down the slope.

Previously, experts have already stated that the American tank M1 Abrams is of little use for tasks in the winter.

Video shows tank sliding during a turn on ice and unable to climb a modest incline..

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 21 2023 20:17 utc | 132

Gilbert Doctorow's columns are always worth waiting for.
Today's is entitled
"Withdraw from Artyomovsk!
"This is the advice which social media say the U.S. Government is today giving to the Zelensky regime in Kiev. It follows by a day or two the public release by German intelligence operatives of their own assessment of the latest course of the war, saying that the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to advancing Russian ground units in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), just as the defense of Soledar (lost to the Russians a week ago) was and is a death trap set by the Russians for the Ukrainians. As the U.S. overlords understand today, continued losses of Ukrainian forces in these hopeless PR stunts are compromising any chances of their making a spring counteroffensive when the advanced military gear now being shipped to them arrives and is put into the field.

"What conclusion can we reach from “withdraw from Artyomovsk”? Very simply that the notion of 1:1 death and injured rates that the Anglosaxon news disseminators have been shouting for weeks to slant the news towards some “stalemate” between the opposing sides is pure nonsense. It would be safer to follow the figures put out by the Russian military, which indicate a 10:1 imbalance in casualties on the Ukrainian side.

"Meanwhile, the big news in the past 24 hours was the meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group in the German army base at Ramstein. This was most notable for the failure of the defense ministers of the 50 participating countries to reach any agreement over delivery of tanks to the Ukrainians. Tanks are allegedly needed to support Ukraine’s spring counter offensive, with the objective not merely to push back the Russians to the line of demarcation in Donbas prior to the start of the Special Military Operation, but even to recapture the Crimea...."

Doctorow not only supplies translations of his columns but welcomes comments.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 21 2023 20:22 utc | 133

The link !
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/
Today's translations are into German and Brazilian Portuguese

Posted by: bevin | Jan 21 2023 20:24 utc | 134

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 20:14 utc | 131

Pantsir point defense systems can shoot those Harm missiles down. If I were to guess, the main problem is they have to balance available point defense systems between troops at the front, logistical assets in the rear and protecting the S-300/400 and radar systems. Then you have the towns you should need to protect. Unfortunately, I'd wager civilian targets are lowest on priority list.

Theoretically the air defense unit is made out of those components, but there might not be always enough to go around.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 20:26 utc | 135

Boo @109


A part of this is military dependency, and there's no better way to get there [than] by disarming the already pitiful Bundeswehr. The Poles and the UK see this as their opportunity to become or stay relevant, respectively.

That scenario of yours beats the worst expectations of mine. But from the viewpoint of the hegemon plotting to consolidate its power it makes perfect sense. So I'm afraid you might be right. The destruction of the pipelines of an ally is unprecedented - and it suggests that the perpetrator will henceforth respect no rules of law, let alone decency or fairness.

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 21 2023 20:26 utc | 136

This from Rolling Stone:

"A former American special operator died early Thursday morning after being wounded days before fighting alongside the Ukrainian military during intense combat in the eastern frontline city of Bakhmut."

"Daniel Swift, 35, lived mostly in the Pacific Northwest and served as a Navy SEAL. The U.S. Navy told Rolling Stone on Friday that Swift is currently designated as an active deserter and has been since March 2019."

"An American intelligence official, who first told Rolling Stone about Swift’s death, said he suffered a massive traumatic brain injury and died early Thursday morning. The official asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly."

RT picked up this story as well yesterday.

This is of course total BS.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 20:29 utc | 137

The U.S. wants to take Russian military equipment from Russia’s Latin American allies and "donate it to Ukraine".

https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/status/1616632880397942784

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 21 2023 20:32 utc | 138

karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 19:48 utc | 121

Germans have a bad habit of naming their tanks after cats. Panthers and Tigers with German crosses last time. Leopards with a cross on them would not be a good look in Nazi Ukraine.

Perhaps the Germans and French will fold or perhaps that's where the fracture in Nato will occur along with Turkiye. UK with its rabid Russophobia coalition has now neatly cut Germany off from Russia. If Germany and France were smart, they would now be looking at allying with Russia against the anglo world.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 21 2023 20:41 utc | 139

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 20:26 utc | 135 "Pantsir point defense systems can shoot those Harm missiles down"

Agree. But even if they are in the right place, less than 100% of the time. You can compute the RCS of the HARM from different angles and see quite a difference. Head on the HARM has the smallest RCS. The point at which the Pantsir sees the HARM (assuming no networked radars) it has very little time to react. The modeling I've seen says it has a good chance of hitting the first inbound HARM. Some chance of hitting the second one and there is a third one, about no chance. Luckily the Ukrainians are firing them only in pairs.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 20:44 utc | 140

Just more Marxist bs for the true believers.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 20:45 utc | 141

Peter AU1 @ 139

If Germany and France were smart, they would now be looking at allying with Russia against the anglo world.

Macron is much too busy destroying France from within.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 21 2023 20:48 utc | 142

The Abrams is good for an attacker that has complete control of the battlespace and logistics. The US has grown fat in their war planning which is designed to beat third rate military powers.

Posted by: circumspect | Jan 21 2023 18:52 utc | 105
---------------

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I think that the US has been preparing for a war with Russia since at least 2008, and perhaps since 1991. NATO's march towards Russia's borders is not an accident: Who knows what secret weapons they have in store for the final event? The question is what surprises do the Russians have waiting for the US/NATO when it openly enters the war in full force.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 20:49 utc | 143

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 21 2023 20:17 utc | 132 "Video shows tank sliding during a turn on ice and unable to climb a modest incline.."

I've seen old newsreels of M4 Sherman tanks doing the same thing. Recently several have been posted on Twitter from the December 1944's battles in the Ardennes.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 20:50 utc | 144

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 20:45 utc | 141

Just more Marxist bs for the true believers.

i. what specifically are you referring to?
ii. what is specifically 'Marxist' about what you're referring to?
iii. Do you know what 'Marxist' means?

Not being sarcastic, genuinely wondering.

Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 21 2023 20:53 utc | 145

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 19:34 utc | 118 "that's why Ukraine is lost cause,"

So, it should be over shortly? Any ideas when that will be?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 20:03 utc | 127
----------------
So, Bill, just when do you think Ukraine will wrap this baby up, Kick Russia's ass, and invade Moscow? You and Mr. Motherucker should put your heads together (yes, the pun was intentional) and come up with an end date suitable for your liking. Then we can all prepare for the big parade with fireworks and marching bands. I will be watching breathlessly for your response.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 21:11 utc | 146

juliania | Jan 21 2023 18:56 utc | 106

All I can say is b inspired me with his rhetoric. I think, being me, I overreached

Sorry, overreached?

No, sister, you are riding the vanguard, we are in the midst of a human tragedy.

Posted by: john | Jan 21 2023 21:16 utc | 147

Peter AU1 | Jan 21 2023 20:41 utc | 139


If Germany and France were smart, they would now be looking at allying with Russia against the anglo world.

Agree. But our leaders are far from being smart.

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 21 2023 21:20 utc | 148

bevin @133--

I know you didn't write these words, but they do tell us something about their writer:

"... when the advanced military gear now being shipped to them arrives and is put into the field." [My Emphasis]

As Outraged has detailed very well, none of the arriving kit is "advanced" with much of it having been scheduled for the scrap yard. Perhaps I should go to his website and comment there.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 21:26 utc | 149

karlof1 @117

Logical to assume that the flank protection units will be mostly among the newly mobilized, with perhaps a peppering of veteran NCO's to amalgamate and stiffen them up a bit. They may also be gifted with a few of the older model tanks, sufficient artillery and plenty of air support should that be of essence. Being far better trained in comparison with the off the street Ukrainian Territorial Defense conscripts and those units bereft of sufficient armor and artillery and totally lacking in air support; the flank guard troops should be able to provide the necessary levels of protection for the pros.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 21 2023 21:32 utc | 150

Here's the Guardian with its fake news:
Germany faces backlash over reluctance to send tanks to UkraineL

Germany is facing a backlash from allies over its reluctance to supply Leopard 2 tanks to bolster Ukraine’s fighting capacity in the nearly year-long war with Russia.
On Friday, 50 countries agreed to provide Kyiv with billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware, including armoured vehicles and munitions needed to push back Russian forces.
But the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, told reporters at the US Ramstein airbase in Germany that despite heightened expectations, “we still cannot say when a decision will be taken, and what the decision will be, when it comes to the Leopard tank”. . .here

Fifty countries agreed that the US should send a couple billion dollars worth of gear, also some gear from of eight more close US allies, is all. Forty of the countries attendees didn't offer anything, enjoyed the food and drinks, and went back to their origins.

So where's the "backlash?" It's from three pipsqueek countries that didn't offer anything worthwhile -- Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.
from Guardian: In a joint statement – and a rare public criticism of Europe’s top power – the foreign ministers of the three Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania said they “call on Germany to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now”.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 21 2023 21:35 utc | 151

Where did "Bernd" go? It looks like he might have gotten burned and then burnt a path away from here. Be'rnd'a think twice before the next drive-by troll attempt. LOL

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 21 2023 21:35 utc | 152

Posted by: Ann | Jan 21 2023 14:10 utc | 33

Agreed. And people think I have one. Driezin has never said anything that everyone else wasn't saying, yet he acts like he's inside the CIA. And all the capital letters are intensely annoying.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 21 2023 21:36 utc | 153

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 21 2023 20:32 utc | 138

LMAO - that woman is as delusional and misinformed as muthaucker if she thinks Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua are going to send any kind of weapons to Ukraine.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 21 2023 21:40 utc | 154

Soon there will be the petroyuan, the petroruble, the petropeso and so forth. 
There is no mechanism to stop it. 

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jan 21 2023 19:19 utc | 112

Include PetroGold as Zoltan Pozsar, of Credit Suisse, Bretton Woods 111, Outlook 2023 mused:
“if Russia asks to be paid in gold for oil. Money is as money does, and convertibility to gold beats convertibility to dollars,"

The dollar's convertibility to gold ended August 15, 1971.

What is overlooked is that the yuan's convertibiity is no longer an if or when - already happening; the yuan was already convertible in year 2017, 2018…”take the yuan to the Shanghai and Hong Kong Gold Exchange, its convertible to gold.

And Ghana announced it will use gold to pay for oil.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 21 2023 21:40 utc | 155

US are talking about having the promised weapons in Ukraine late March so I assume their spring offensive with the third army will kick off around that time or April. One Ukr TG channel says 500 Geran-2 type drones will be included.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 21 2023 21:43 utc | 156

@ Ranelagh # 98, @ Mike 314159 #49

Good catch Ranelagh, I hadn't thought the number used and Pi.

I've been perusing MoA since sometime last summer and when a person is scanning a couple hundred postings a day, my pattern indicator in my head catches new names, episodically ones that sort of stand out. Given that were are in a 5th generation warfare situation, we know this international forum is being monitored and "attacked" by professional Psych Ops people. "Mike 314159" just gave me that vibe. Apologizes to "Mike" if you're real...

Posted by: DakotaRog | Jan 21 2023 21:46 utc | 157

Peter AU1 @139--

Thanks for your reply. According to recent polling, Europeans are divided and it appears that Ramstein was one occasion where the politicos reflected their citizenry's wishes. As I wrote a few days ago, it appears that the Establishment Narrative is crumbling. Part of that is reflected in the opening paragraph on this excellent review of Davos by Ekaterina Blinova:

"This year’s forum featured the new state of the world: divided, resentful, and grim," Gal Luft, director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, told Sputnik. "Davos has become the dressing room of the West and is more divorced than ever from the rest. It no longer represents the real concerns of most of the world’s population. Its obsession with climate change, social justice, gender and other forms of wokeness has made it a laughing stock and target of disdain for most of the world."

The public in most nations always resembles a sleeping giant that smart leaders arouse when they need it aroused. When it awakens because of bad governance as is currently the case, their rath can become savage, and today that's precisely what's required. BigLie media tries to staunch what citizens are doing but finds its efforts are falling short--people are talking to each-other and evermore coming together in solidarity as the travails of war affect all, those on both left/right/center. Only diehard hawks now align with NATO/EU. And public rancor will only increase as the economic costs become ever heavier. The test will likely come before Spring. And IMO we'll see movement within the Outlaw US Empire as Biden tries to gut Social Security and Medicare to get the Rs to increase the debt ceiling. IMO, the political winds in the West are changing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 21:53 utc | 158

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 21:11 utc | 146

Agreed. Rather tired of Bill Smith's passive-aggressive concern trolling. Always assertions with zero supporting links or evidence - a solid sign of a concern troll.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 21 2023 21:53 utc | 159

Martyanov on the possibility of Russia "losing" this war. Concern trolls, take note.

As I pointed out yesterday in a discussion board, Rammstein meeting turned out to be primarily a nothing-burger and, again, the already collapsing globalists' narrative will collapse much faster with the images of NATO super-pooper tanks burning in industrial quantities in 404.

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany (AP) — Defense leaders meeting at a U.S. air base in Germany on Friday failed to resolve divisions over providing advanced battle tanks to Ukraine after more than five hours of discussions about sending more military aid to the embattled country in its war with Russia. The defense minister of Poland, which has pledged a company of 14 Leopard tanks on condition that other countries also supply them, said 15 countries that have the German-made Leopards discussed the issue but no decisions were made. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak called the meeting a “good discussion among allies” and said the matter would be discussed again at future talks.

As I state constantly--there are people in Pentagon left who can and do calculate the real required force to change anything in favor of 404. Without going too much into criteria of efficiency and serious datasets for computers, I can repeat what it would take. It would take all NATO countries armies, headed by the US, all their Air Forces and navies, with draft introduced in all those countries, and then about a year of uninterrupted prepositioning of the forces--good luck with that--and a preliminary agreement with Russia that all this is merely a sport competition, in order for Russia not to flatten by conventional weapons London, Brussels and Washington, to have any effect at all. Then, maybe, especially if Russia fails to mobilize around 2.5 million personnel--also good luck hoping for that to happen--there could be some talk of "changing dynamics" in 404. In layman's lingo it is called a wet fantasy.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 21 2023 21:56 utc | 160

Where did "Bernd" go? It looks like he might have gotten burned and then burnt a path away from here. Be'rnd'a think twice before the next drive-by troll attempt. LOL
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 21 2023 21:35 utc | 152
----------

Tom, he showed up at #2 with is usual pro-Nazi critical rendering of B's essay. See below for a taste.
--------------------

A complementary thrust from the north towards south, which may or may not be coming, would finally close the cauldron.
Obviously too early to tell right now, but I'm guessing this will be another "cauldron/boiler/kotel" that never was.
Posted by: Bernd | Jan 21 2023 10:21 utc | 2
----------

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 21:58 utc | 161

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 21:11 utc | 146

Let's make it easier for the concern and drive-by trolls.

When will Ukraine retake Crimea?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 21 2023 21:59 utc | 162

The RF-Sat intel isn't stupid, neither the US-Sat intel is. Both are high-tech (don't forget China).
The question is to have always the best real-time infos available (for analysis & targeting objects) to attack the 'enemy' prior to its own actions.

So, with today's new provocation of help attacking Crimea, US has now announced a new very fatal step to weaken the RF.
That would be a new 'probe' how far can the US go.
How long (months) and how far (Tkm/Tmiles) and to "what responses" those escalating provocations of US may lead ..(Texas as a new target)..?
Every ground battle and Figther-Jets and Drone attacks is always depending on radio infos from the space (GPS, etc.), if objects are not locally identified by any optical or Radar ground systems.

So, with a new provocation of helping to attack Crimea, the US/UK has lifted a little more pieces under its carpet they "could do in future" ..
Let's see, if UKR-Nazi forces will be forced back on ground - then to Kiew .. or not.
Or meanwhile Mr. Piano-Sex has been ass..ted and replaced by another Nazi clown - ref.to the Helicopter-Crash in Kiew?

Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 21 2023 22:02 utc | 163

re: gear from Latin American countries 138
from VOA

“We are working with the countries that have the Russian equipment to either donate it or switch it out for United States equipment,” General Laura Richardson, the commander of U.S. Southern Command, told a virtual audience Thursday during an appearance at the Atlantic Council in Washington. Richardson said discussions with six countries, in particular, “are in the works,” but did not elaborate.
. .In contrast, Russian-made weapon systems currently being used in Central and South America could be used by the Ukrainian military almost immediately. And some countries have significant stockpiles. "The best examples of that are Peru, Mexico, Ecuador, Colombia and Argentina,” said Ryan Brobst, a research analyst at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD). “Specifically, they have a lot of Russian- or Soviet-made helicopters,” he told VOA. . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 21 2023 22:03 utc | 164

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 21:11 utc | 146 "Kick Russia's ass, and invade Moscow?"

Invade Moscow? Never. Invade Russia? Also, beyond some minor, short lived incursion somewhere on the border? Never.

My current view on when will this wrap up? When either Ukraine or Russia decides the cost of this is too high (or about to be too high) and the two sides negotiate something. As long as the West continues to supply weapons to Ukraine, it could easily drag on for another year or two. If the West stops suppling weapons it will end in fairly short order.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 22:05 utc | 165

grunzt@101

Though I have long known that because no peace treaty had ever been signed; I was unaware of the specificity of the Chancellor Act. Danke Schoen.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 21 2023 22:08 utc | 166

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 21 2023 21:59 utc | 162 "When will Ukraine retake Crimea?"

I consider it very unlikely that Ukraine will retake Crimea by force of arms. My opinion is that if the continued ramp up of sanctions on Russia were to continue for a number of years and they really bit into Russian GDP, then Ukraine might get it back as part of a deal to unwind the sanctions. So if you believe the scations won't do the job, then Ukraine will never get Crimea back.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 22:12 utc | 167

“We are working with the countries that have the Russian equipment to either donate it or switch it out for United States equipment,” General Laura Richardson, the commander of U.S. Southern Command,...."
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 21 2023 22:03 utc | 164

-----------------------------
Of course, this is a trap. Once they surrender their Russian made weapons and accept US weapons (to be delivered when?) they will be nothing but US butt boys who will have to come begging for ammunition and spare parts for maintenance. Also, the US will have access to the Latin American military secrets and the ear of top military brass because US forces will train the Latin military forces to operate the new US weapons. Any country that accepts this BS agreement will have to tow a US acceptable political line both domestically and in their foreign affairs: NO more flirting with Russia and China.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 22:20 utc | 168

a lone voice in the Contact Group at Ramstein. US
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley stated on Friday.
RT
Fighting Russia ‘very, very difficult’ for Ukraine

While Kiev has vowed to seize huge tracts of what is now Russian territory, Moscow’s forces have won a series of key battles.

Ukraine will struggle to make good on its promise to drive Russian forces out of its former territory, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley stated on Friday. While civilian officials in Washington insist that Kiev must keep fighting, Milley has repeatedly questioned the chances of success.

“President Biden, President Zelensky, and most of the leaders of Europe have said this war is likely to end in a negotiation,” Milley said during a meeting of the US-led Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. “From a military standpoint, this is a very, very difficult fight,” he added.[.]

“I still maintain that for this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine,” Milley said on Friday, referring to the four former regions of Ukraine that voted to join Russia in September, and Crimea, an historic Russian territory that voted to rejoin the Russian Federation in 2014. “That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But it’d be very, very difficult.”
[.]

And the civilian leaderships responded:

"That's why UKr needs more. Hang the logistics. Print up more tanks and boots. Drone them in."

Seriously. these guys really, really believed sanctions alone would bring RF to its knees, a push over and that Putin was bluffing. So, no one thought to take an inventory count of what's in the pantry. No flour, no cake.
Like the man said; can't take an empty gun to a gun fight.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 21 2023 22:24 utc | 169

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 21 2023 22:03 utc | 164

USA was touring in South American countries already last Autumn for Soviet equipment. They are trying to scrape the barrel in an effort to keep playing in Ukraine with House money for a tad longer.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 22:24 utc | 170

Gremlins are coming to Russia's arsenal of hypersonics. "Gremlin Hypersonic Guided Rocket (GZUR)" is very well explained in the linked article. Hat tip to Martyanov for supplying the link. Nice bit about the entomology of the word gremlin too that contains a surprise. Engineers will like the explanation about the engine. IMO, it appears to be close to being tested in Ukraine.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 22:30 utc | 171

Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 22:05 utc | 165

As for it dragging on another year or two, the west is running out of Ukrainians. Videos starting to come out now of press gangs literately dragging men off to the army as they find them. No conscription or mobilization summons to appear at an enlistment center or anything.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 21 2023 22:34 utc | 172

from Stripes, Mar 15, 2022
US has 100,000 troops in Europe for first time since 2005

The United States has 100,000 service members operating in Europe, the largest number in nearly two decades, as the Pentagon shifts forces in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The last time troop levels were this high in Europe was in 2005, according to U.S. European Command records.
EUCOM now has about 65,000 troops permanently based in Europe, with additional rotational units that have supplemented the mission for several years. In January, there were roughly 80,000 total U.S. troops in Europe. But Russia’s new invasion of Ukraine last month sparked a dramatic increase in the number of deployments for temporary missions on the Continent. Many of those troops were sent to the eastern part of Poland near Ukraine’s border. "In the face of Russian aggression, the United States has recently deployed additional forces and now has approximately 100,000 U.S. service members in Europe,” EUCOM said in a statement Tuesday.
...A big difference between now and the U.S. military’s Cold War footprint is that American forces are spread out far and wide in 19 countries, including in old Warsaw Pact states that are now part of NATO. Germany still has the most U.S. troops, with 38,500, according to the latest EUCOM figures. After that comes Italy with 12,000. Poland and the United Kingdom have 10,000 each. Romania has 2,400 U.S. troops, while Spain has 2,500. . . . .here

...plus dependents and contractors

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 21 2023 22:34 utc | 173

Richard Steven Hack @ 159

With that one, I've reached the same conclusion

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 21 2023 22:39 utc | 174

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 21 2023 20:41 utc | 139

Germans have a bad habit of naming their tanks after cats.

Hilariously, Soviets (Russians) have habit of naming their artillery pieces by flowers.

Posted by: Abe | Jan 21 2023 22:40 utc | 175

Peter AU1: Still no shortage of Poles and Americans who can pretend to be Ukrainians, apparently.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 21 2023 22:42 utc | 176

I consider it very unlikely that Ukraine will retake Crimea by force of arms. My opinion is that if the continued ramp up of sanctions on Russia were to continue for a number of years and they really bit into Russian GDP, then Ukraine might get it back as part of a deal to unwind the sanctions. So if you believe the scations won't do the job, then Ukraine will never get Crimea back.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 21 2023 22:12 utc | 167 : Responding to Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 21 2023 21:59 utc | 162
---------------------

Just going out on a limb, but I can see other alternative ways Russia can beat the "sanctions."
For example: Russia and Belarus could size Kiev and Odessa and a large section of Ukraine west of the Dnipro River between Kiev and Odessa and use it as a bargaining chip to remove the sanctions.

Of course, if the US/NATO enter to conflict and stop hiding behind the rotting corpses of their proxy like the cowards they are, then the whole situation changes, of course for the worse for everyone wouldn't you say Mr. Bill. Can you say, "Nuclear Holocaust," I knew you could Mr. Bill.


Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 22:44 utc | 177

Posted by: Ed | Jan 21 2023 20:49 utc | 143

I think that the US has been preparing for a war with Russia since at least 2008, and perhaps since 1991. NATO's march towards Russia's borders is not an accident: Who knows what secret weapons they have in store for the final event?

It is quite the opposite. After `91 and Warsaw Treaty dissolution US completely gave up on preparing for a war with peer enemy. They thought they won it all.

Yes, they kept expanding NATO towards Russia but not expecting military confrontation, but for Russia to quietly take it all and die.

US have nothing up their sleeve. Their military changed focus on low intensity conflicts, COIN and terrorizing inferior enemies. Their navy, air force, missile programs and all got underfunded, undeveloped, they basically lost it and lag 30 years now behind Russia. They literally have no industrial capacity for production of most new weapons, nor capacity to maintain most of existing complex ones like ships and carriers. They also destroyed all infrastructure and cadre to develop anything, they now have not only to rebuild military infrastructure but civilian as well (good luck with that). They are ad least 2 generations behind now.

So no, they have nothing up their sleeve, except psychopaths at control of nuclear arsenal, for which eventuality Russia prepared.


Posted by: Abe | Jan 21 2023 22:51 utc | 178

Dead (non-performing) seal

A former American special operator died early Thursday morning after being wounded days before fighting alongside the Ukrainian military during intense combat in the eastern frontline city of Bakhmut.
Daniel Swift, 35, lived mostly in the Pacific Northwest and served as a Navy SEAL.
The US Navy told Rolling Stone on Friday that Swift is currently designated as an active deserter, and has been since March 2019.
Divorced, he leaves behind six children. Swift represents a climbing number of US military veterans that have been killed over the past year while fighting Russian forces.

Adam Thiemann — a former U.S. Army Ranger who previously fought in Ukraine with Swift and stayed in contact with his platoon through phone calls and late-night text messages — told Rolling Stone that during an operation in Bakhmut on the night of Jan. 14 and into the early morning of Jan. 15, Russian forces launched an anti-personnel rocket-propelled grenade at Swift and two other soldiers, killing them.


https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/former-navy-seal-killed-ukraine-battle-1234665040/

Twitter comments:
> A more likely explanation (besides an elite soldier going AWOL) is that he was fighting in Ukraine while on active duty. This would be an admission that there are US combat forces in Ukraine, so instead they lie.
>How did he travel to Ukraine without being detained if he had a warrant out for his arrest?
> Married special US operators with children gets recruited by reddit? Seriously? At least try to make sense when going along with the meme.
~ The US Navy told Rolling Stone on Friday that Swift is currently designated as an active deserter, and has been since March 2019.
Absolutely no one believes this horseshit.
>…He was an off-the-books zogbot who has been stirring up trouble in Syria & Ukraine for four years.
…~ Yet, by April 2019, a felony bench warrant had gone out for Swift for the primary charge of false imprisonment related to his divorce. The judge in North County Superior set his bail at $250 thousand. The San Diego County Sherriff’s Department told Rolling Stone the warrant is still active. A month before the U.S. Navy listed him as an active deserter.
Q: How does one get a felony "false imprisonment" charge? Did he tie his ex wife up or something?
A: Its all bunch of bullshit written after the fact, literally his cover story for when they burn his rep post mortem.

>…Yet, by April 2019, a felony bench warrant had gone out for Swift for the primary charge of false imprisonment related to his divorce. The judge in North County Superior set his bail at $250 thousand. The San Diego County Sherriff’s Department told Rolling Stone the warrant is still active. A month before the U.S. Navy listed him as an active deserter.
Thiemann told Rolling Stone that when Swift unexpectedly turned up in Irpin, Ukraine, he had no equipment of his own but would still go on operations.
?? What. How is this possible?

> “AWOL" is just a cover. Dude was for sure an armed advisor acting on behalf of the US government.
>…””active deserter””. Sure DoD. (Sure Jan gif).Sure.
> A more likely explanation (besides an elite soldier going AWOL) is that he was fighting in Ukraine while on active duty. This would be an admission that there are US combat forces in Ukraine, so instead they lie.

@sethharpesq
And from Seth’s twitter…(off topic) (but not really)…(Ukraine being Ground Zero now the Afghanistan show has closed)
“Former Navy SEAL and CIA special agent James Dennis Smith Jr faced up to 40 years in prison for trafficking drugs from Central America to the US in his private plane.
Instead, he was sentenced to a mere 18 months, got released early after just 9, and promptly disappeared.”…

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 21 2023 22:57 utc | 179

Hilariously, Soviets (Russians) have habit of naming their artillery pieces by flowers.
Posted by: Abe | Jan 21 2023 22:40 utc | 175

Well, I guess they do blossom in wartime...

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 21 2023 23:10 utc | 180

It's folly to assume that the US cannot reindustrialize and expand its MIC to engage in a bigger war. As long as the dollar allows for unlimited spending, the world will foot the bill of the process. The fact of the matter is that they don't want to do it because they don't intend to fight a land war with Russia, a terrible and wasteful proposition. They want someone else to do it and for Europe to fold to them for the coming period, and to cordon Russia off from Germany. The outcome of Ukraine barely matters, but only that it keeps going.

The predicament of the US is that its opponents are nuclear powers with whom direct war is out of the question, yet warfare is what they have invested in for decades. So you have a massive army that's barely usable for the task at hand. That leaves proxy wars, sanctions and influence operations. They have tried everything and will try everything, but the lack of a collapse of government in Russia bodes ill for these plans and for the game in Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 21 2023 23:10 utc | 181

Melaleuca @179--

I suppose the US/UK snipers reported to have infiltrated Potemkin Island are also AWOL. Indeed, it seems very likely that the entire Outlaw US Empire's military--especially the top brass--are AWOL. That would explain the mindless way the military's been managed since 2010 after the banks got bailed out.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 23:12 utc | 182

Ed and Abe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWx53-AgqgQ

Probably nothing you don't already know, but a good summary, IMO.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 21 2023 23:12 utc | 183

Boo @181--

It's not a matter of money; rather, it's a matter of resources. You can't make steel from paper money. Nor can you man foundries without skilled labor. And the list of items goes well beyond. What was exported was over a century of industrial and human development. And all the resources that went into building, operating and creating what all that industry built cannot be recovered.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 23:19 utc | 184

What is referred to in Russian military doctrine as operational encirclement was first, or perhaps rather the oldest surviving functional text is, taught by Master-General Sun, Sun-tzu, in The Art of War 7:36 and 11:23-24.

Posted by: Triangulum | Jan 21 2023 23:22 utc | 185

All the WEF & EU learners & new youngsters of think-tank echoes, published today in MSM (why the 30th time again a video presenting of Mr. Piano-Sex speaking, for what further weaponry?) have no idea what a 'Physical challenge' of any soldiers might be in war on ground - even below 0 Celsius.
So, dear RF-Commanders: pls. use and challenge your intelligence even once more when things get tight, as before, to meet this challenge today. Thanks a lot.

Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 21 2023 23:27 utc | 186

umm, Boo, where is this reindustrialization going to take place? and with resources imported from where?

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 21 2023 23:32 utc | 187

Ok give me a bit of slack with this one.

Yesterday I speculated zelinsky may get a helicopter phobia, grab his billion in personnel wealth and head for Miami or Israel.
Two questions.
A. Dose Zelensky read moon of alabama.
B. Has he gone ?
Why do I ask ?
Well i'v just read 180 comments and not anywhere has their been a word from zelensky. Yes a vast amount of hot are from the US but nothing nothing from Zelensky.

Ok i call it right now. He's gone already.
Don't beleave me, check the comments. Nothing. Him gone ha ha.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 21 2023 23:36 utc | 188

Watching the mainstream media evening news. They're claiming, per pentagon officials, that 150,000 Russian soldiers have died.

Posted by: cameron232 | Jan 21 2023 23:42 utc | 189

First things first, every word about Sunak this and Scholz that is deception. Ths Nato plan is always about building a narrative first , followed by aerial bombing.

The narrative is a pack of lies. Russia is not Iraq or Libya. She is fully armed with retaliatory weapons. Nato only wants Russia to bully Russia into accepting an expansion of NATO. The Atlanticists are delusional enough , even now , to not understand that Russia will not allow itself to be bullied.
Nato dimwits think it's only a matter of time before Russia caves in.

When Russia sends it hypersonic missiles , the Nato spokesarse will say, nobody could have predicted that Russia would react
this way. The Atlantacists are totally convinced by their revolving door of political and MIC narratives that Russia will capitulate.

For its side , Russia sees no need to waste time arguing with the drivel of the
West when there are adults to talk with
elsewhere. Zap Poland, zap Kiev, walk away.

Posted by: Giyane | Jan 21 2023 23:42 utc | 190

"Q: How does one get a felony "false imprisonment" charge? "

---

The covery story is all BS and yes nobody with any sense of things buys the cover story, it's like they're not even trying anymore. Now about that charge, could be as simple as taking one of your 4 kids out of state on vacation (or for the weekend to your home) without your ex-wifes permission or otherwise previously agreed and documented and you could end up with such charges if you ex is nutty enough to press the issue and hype it up, particularly so if you say "no" to a "bring them home to me now" type call when asked by her or a call from leo - I assume she's the one with custody. But that's one way I could think of.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jan 21 2023 23:44 utc | 191

@ Boo 181

The problem with the US is its mind, not its physical strength. The theological delusion that Jesus Christ is going carry all your sins, however many times they are repeated, creates a psychological delusion that anti-social behaviour is normal.
BoJo's mates saw nothing wrong with boozy parties in lockdown. And they still think that.

The sane world won't accept this irresponsible mindset any more.
More weapons won't change anything .
USUKIS is universally considered insane.

Posted by: Giyane | Jan 21 2023 23:54 utc | 192

Hunt for "cannon fodder" in Ukraine

First part of the video is Kirovograd region

Second part of the video father is trying to save his son from mobilisation

Third part of the video is in Odessa

https://t.me/azmilitary11/34362

This is how ordinary Ukrainians are being drafted to be cannon fodder for NATO elites.

This is extremely outrageous and heart-breaking. Nobody wants this war except for the Western globalist oligarchs and their pet Nazis.

These men are being unlawfully taken away from their families and forced to kill and to die. Against the interests of their country. For Victoria Nuland, for Biden, for Soros.
https://t.me/azmilitary11/34363

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2023 0:00 utc | 193

@Unimperator - and sadly, this is how the dragooned will end up

https://twitter.com/i/status/1616686632060719104

Posted by: josh | Jan 22 2023 0:03 utc | 194

Watching the mainstream media evening news. They're claiming, per pentagon officials, that 150,000 Russian soldiers have died.

Posted by: cameron232 | Jan 21 2023 23:42 utc | 189

Did they really said "died" or did they say "casualties". In military speak, casualty is KIA, WIA, MIA, POW... basically everthing which takes a soldier out of action.

Anyway... those numbers are highly inflated. Like the weapon of mass destruction in Iraq ;)

Posted by: SwissGuy | Jan 22 2023 0:07 utc | 195

@ unimperator

One begins to wonder how many Ukrainians really (or: continue to) regard Russia as the enemy.

I’m sure they don’t doubt that there’s an enemy.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 0:11 utc | 196

Recent links from today

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVM_hRj5Jpo ‘Best in Hell’ war movie produced by Wagner linked folks is both realistic and not—-reviewed at History Legends

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BCM-Daw7Gc Scott Ritter on Mark Dogan podcast today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BCM-Daw7Gc

Posted by: mjh | Jan 22 2023 0:15 utc | 197

Swiss Guy, you could be right, they may have said "casualties."

Posted by: cameron232 | Jan 22 2023 0:16 utc | 198

In Ritter video link he admits having been wrong

Posted by: mjh | Jan 22 2023 0:17 utc | 199

Swiss Guy, you could be right, they may have said "casualties."

Posted by: cameron232 | Jan 22 2023 0:16 utc | 198

That's what I thought.
It is interesting that the USA (and its vassals) do not recognize the results of the referenda in the four oblasts and therefore the DNR and LPR militias are still Ukrainian citizens for them.
However, when it comes to the losses of the Russians, the militias of the DNR and LPR are suddenly Russian citizens for the western MSM and are included with the statistics of the Russian troops.

Posted by: SwissGuy | Jan 22 2023 0:25 utc | 200

« previous page | next page »

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Working...