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January 23, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-21
Comments
karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 19:00 utc | 25
Lavrov in Africa must be giving Blinken-idiot and “State” conniptions.
Biden’s “hi Africa, can we be friends” didn’t go well.
South America just saw the US military deliver a “stock take” of all the U$ raw materials their countries are occupying.
U.S. Southcom Commander, General Laura Richardson,
in an interview with the Atlantic Council on January 19th.
She says:: She says “in a loT of OUR \countries in this region”
are getting too friendly with China, and cites the growth of trade over a decade or so, up to $700b.
(If that’s unacceptable, wait until it’s done in yuan or local currency 🤬)
Here’s all the goodies the U$ is “interested” in:
~ Oil, {of course}
https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/status/1616820174065205248
A Putin vid from decades back {paraphrased}
“They talk of U$ “interests”, but stick a pin anywhere on the world map, and there is something they say are their “interests”.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 23 2023 22:26 utc | 101
@La Bastille | Jan 23 2023 22:23 utc | 99
“…Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, vowed that the old ways of corruption would not return to Ukraine.”
Well maybe, after the entire political class flees to Poland and Russia takes over as they are all corrupt. Or maybe he meant to say that the ‘old ways’ will be entirely replaced by ‘the new ways’.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 23 2023 22:28 utc | 102
The Potsdam Declaration in 1945 set the terms of unconditional surrender for Japan at the end of WW2. The terms were occupation, disarmament of the military, demilitarisation, industry to be permitted except for those which could lead the country to rearm, the introduction of democracy and other factors which you can read on wiki. These same terms were also imposed on Germany. Signatories were Russia, US and Britain (Stalin, Roosevelt and Attlee).
So my question is how come Germany is building Leopard 2 tanks? I guess this is technically permitted as it’s not strictly to rearm Germany right? But they are being encouraged to supply them to Ukraine to fight Russia? For Germany to deliver german armaments for the purpose of war with Russia is precisely what the Declaration was designed to prevent. Surely the delivery of these tanks is against this Declaration? For Poland to merely act as middleman in this arrangement doesn’t alter the outcome. There’s also a view that more than a few Polish soldiers who can operate these tanks are particularly fluent in German.
Why are the press putting the Germans under so much pressure? Is this the US military industrial complex operating a PR exercise? Is this Declaration going to be binned? Will Japan be released from its surrender terms too?
The US and their press are also painting China as protagonist in the Far East, resulting in US weapons being purchased by South Korea (which has pretty much been state captured by the US). How long will it be before Japan is permitted to produce arms (under U S supervision) for other nearby countries – with China as the bogeyman? What exactly is the threat from China? What was the last country China actually invaded? What reason can anyone think of for China to cosy up to Joe while VP? Perhaps a small price to pay to keep the dogs away?
The same with Ukraine, which also has all the hallmarks of a conflict manufactured by the military industrial complex, only just being held on a leash in by the US Govt. You can read about it on the Rand Corporation website.
Just think of the amount of money for the complex for rearming either Germany or Japan ? Why would anyone in the military industrial complex worry about loss of life when that’s the purpose of their existence? What do our fireside fusiliers think?
Posted by: pipedream | Jan 23 2023 22:29 utc | 103
So ‘as we speak’
The US UK war against Russia (unprovoked) is in total collapse.
The Uqraine front line is disintegrating.
No longer dose the British BBC news say… Zelensky demands more tanks urgently but …Uqraine demands more tanks, I notice those subtile details.
You have to if you want to stay sane in England.
Here in Britain according to news at 10 radio 4 the country’s is in total moral meltdown.tory govenment blighted with more curuption.
The brits right now couldn’t fight their way out of a paper bag let along trouble Russia.
Europe can expect refugees lots and lots of refugees.
——-
Those tanks arent for the front line mud or snow, but will be used in urban/city reargard fighting. Kiev ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 23 2023 22:30 utc | 104
La Bastille | Jan 23 2023 22:23 utc | 99
+ various posts
Huh. Corruption no longer in style in Ukraine????
I thought it was its National Sport.
“We” here guffawed when the U$ announced an oversight task force to ensure U$ $$$& went where they were allocated.
Enough benighted US taypayers are angry $100b++ can be found for Ukraine, while their own infrastructure fails.
With Pelosi gone, and Joe shedding documents all over the eastern seaboard, maybe the kickbacks and dollar recycling game is ending.
And what better way than to pin it on some middling nobodies in Ukraine.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 23 2023 22:34 utc | 105
@ karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 21:38 utc | 80
Ultimately may suggest you’ve answered your own question. 😉
Lavrov said that refusal to deal honestly with the proposals would necessitate a “military technical operation;”
Poland, Romania & the Balts currently have no credible conventional military capabilities vs RF. Though is planned to dramatically change that balance in coming 12 months+ with regard merely Poland alone.
So, another SMO if direct demands re removal of strategic threats does not occur, post Slow-SMO in Ukraine. What was one of the defined objectives ? Demilitarization.
These, moments, seem fast approaching to me, as the current comparative advantageous RF conventional military balance and ‘will’ & publicly supported antagonism on each side may be inflamed or wane, and not necessarily to RFs continuing advantage over time. All whilst EU/NATO openly intends to Gird for further War in coming years.
Demilitarization re Poland, Romania, the Balts may be similar to Cuba crisis demands, not the confrontation … remove the offending strategically threatening arms willingly or we’ll do it for you, surgically. Then a return to negotiated & monitored ‘mutual’ security treaties, ensuring the above States do not seek to excessively arm & stand up forces, especially strategic arms, beyond their own legitimate security needs.
No Empire Ukraine proxy ‘clones’ being churned out one after another. Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine … Poland next ? Thence ?
I was thinking of the never ending, and basically reflexive at this point, allotments of funds to Ukraine, and I’m seeing them in the light of the obsessive behavior of Gary Oldman’s character in Romeo is Bleeding. Ukraine is the hole that must continually be fed.
Below is a quote about the hole, but first one that I see as applicable to the West’s involvement.
Jack Grimaldi : People think that Hell is fire and brimstone and the Devil poking you in the butt with a pitchfork, but it’s not. Hell is when you should have walked away, but you didn’t.
Jack Grimaldi : Maybe it was just his imagination, but whenever he’d pull up that plate, he’d hear a… sucking sound. It started out small, with the first 65 grand. And then it got bigger. Pretty soon it was the only thing he heard. Pretty soon, all he could think about was feeding the hole. He didn’t think about when he was a kid. He didn’t think about the guys who he started who were still on the up-and-up. He didn’t think about the dreams he had with Natalie. He didn’t think about those Feds lying there. Most of all, he didn’t think about Mona Demarkov, because the way he saw it, she was done. Just another 65 grand for the hole. He fed the hole and he made the hole happy. It was the only thing he knew how to make happy.
“Feed the hole” scene from Romeo Is Bleeding (1993)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v562BUyc6J4
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 23 2023 22:36 utc | 107
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 21:38 utc | 80
IMO solution is simple, yet not easy (it is doable of course). If country contains Russian population that is abused – then new SMO’s will be performed on them. I don’t see Russia leaving own people under terror of nazi governments (Baltic states, Poland and all other de facto turned nazi). In for a penny, in for a pound. Genie is out of the bottle.
The rest of the land can be rabidly Russophobic, Russia will not care. Wall will be erected towards them and all trade stopped. Baltic states will turn into dying economic shitholes. As long as they don’t host weapons that threaten Russia, no one will look their way.
Posted by: Abe | Jan 23 2023 22:38 utc | 108
Crooke’s weekly SCF essay is out, “The Most Egregious Mistake”:
It is the miscalculation of this era – one that may begin the collapse of dollar primacy, and therefore, global compliance with U.S. political demands, too. But its most grievous content is that it corners the U.S. into promoting dangerous Ukrainian escalation against Russia directly (i.e. Crimea).
Washington dares not – indeed cannot – yield on dollar primacy, the ultimate signifier for ‘American decline’. And so the U.S. government is hostage to its financial hegemony in a way that is rarely fully understood.
The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
What then is this ‘Great Surprise’ – the almost completely unforeseen event of recent geo-politics that has so shaken U.S. expectations, and which takes the world to the precipice?
It is, in a word, Resilience. The Resilience displayed by the Russian economy after the West had committed the entire weight of its financial resources to crushing Russia. The West bore down on Russia in every conceivable way – via financial, cultural and psychological war – and with real military war as the follow-through.
Yet, Russia has survived, and survived relatively handsomely. It is doing ‘okay’ – maybe better, even, than many Russia insiders were expecting. The ‘Anglo’ Intelligence services however, had assured EU leaders not to worry; it’s ‘slam dunk’; Putin cannot possibly survive. Rapid financial and political collapse, they promised, was certain under the tsunami of western sanctions.
Their analysis represents an Intelligence failure on a par with the non-existent Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. But instead of critical re-examination, as events failed to provide confirmation, they doubled down. But two such failures are just ‘too much’ to bear.
So why does this ‘failed expectation’ constitute such a world-shaking moment for our era? It is because the West fears that its miscalculation might well lead to the collapse of its dollar hegemony. But the fear extends well beyond that too – (bad as ‘that’ would be from the U.S. perspective). [Emphasis Original]
Much of that’s been commented by various barflies since March when the Sanctions From Hell utterly failed. Dedollarization’s been a topic and goal for quite some time but got hyper energized with the theft of Russia’s foreign reserves in a manner that the theft of Venezuela’s gold didn’t produce.
After his above intro, Crooke gets into the meat of Russian resiliance–its’ productive economy, not the crap generated by Neoliberal Service Economies, much of which we’ve discussed here over the past ten years:
“The import of the ‘Great Surprise’ – of Russian Resilience – resulting from its real economy of production vis á vis the evident weakness of the hyper-financialised western model scrabbling for sources of munitions has not been lost on the rest of the world.”
Indeed, that “Great Surprise” is proving revolutionary. And after that short paragraph, Crooke tells us how Neoliberalism got its big start prior to WW1, a series of paragraphs that mustn’t be missed, then once digested shared globally. Crooke then channels Hudson’s Super Imperialism and eventually arrives at the question Yves Smith recently asked:
“Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued [link at original], ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.”
But bereft of the dollars to fuel its Ponzi and without a viable industrial base, how will the Outlaw US Empire be able to conduct such a war when there’s nothing to gain and everything to lose by going nuclear? Once again, the Big Picture Rules.
@Irish,§38
Interesting question.
I agree the Russians aren´t interested in western Ukraine, let alone Poland or the Baltics. All they´ve ever wanted, since The Wall came down, is peaceful friendship and profitable trade with Europe – which the stupid EU, under US pressure, spurned.
Russia will take Kiev and Odessa, given Zelensky´s attitude. They would probably be happy with the 1939 border and the hardcore Ukies setting up in Galicia/Volyn. Unfortunately, unless that rump is willing to guarantee neutrality and not be turned into a base of chronic operations against Russia, the Russians will have to go right up to the Polish border and then allow the Galicians to elect their own politicos with the clear understanding that the Galicia/Volyn state would remain neutral and demilitarized. That´s actually the best that the Ukies can now hope for.
Who would arrange this peace negotiation?
Unfortunately and foolishly, Switzerland has ruled itself out.
Liechtenstein? May seem like a joke, but it is possible.
Serbia is a possibility but NATO would see it as pro-Russian.
This excludes anywhere in Europe except, possibly, Cyprus.
Is Ireland still neutral? This would be a well-deserved poke in the eye for the British.
That leaves only somewhere outside Europe altogether: India, Egypt or Brazil?
My, how times have changed
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 23 2023 22:58 utc | 110
Old microbiologist. Thanks for your insights. We’re originally from Hungary, have been living in Australia for 35 years, came here when I was 21.
In the next few years, we’re planning to move back permanently.
Posted by: Peter Schmidt | Jan 23 2023 23:01 utc | 111
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 21:38 utc | 80
In my opinion the desired disintegration of NATO is more likely to be hastened by Hungary and Turkiÿe remaining members than by their leaving. It may be that the leaders of those two nations have that goal and strategy front of mind.
Of course NATO is functionally an instrument of US foreign policy and the maintenance of its hegemonic status, however, to the extent that the “rules based order” as authored by the US and written into the North Atlantic Treaty means anything, member states have the constitutional means within the councils of NATO to veto, disrupt or delay the aims of the US (and its allies and vassals). They may overtly, transparently to the watching world, challenge malign or misguided policy prescriptions and advocate alternatives. They may embolden other member states to assert their sovereign equality and national interests. They may continue to block the accession of new members (Sweden, Finland) where this arguably diminishes the collective security of the ‘North Atlantic’ region as defined in the treaty. The may work covertly to undermine and thwart NATO consensus and unity.
As far as I recall, there is no mechanism written into the North Atlantic Treaty that envisages or provides for the expulsion of member states (I may be wrong). The drafters of the treaty may have, in their hubris, inadvertently planted the bomb that may destroy it from within.
Please, Mr Orban and Mr Erdogan, stay!
Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Jan 23 2023 23:06 utc | 112
Hi bar flies and foes, have been away for day or so, apologies if this has already been referenced, via geroman.
Hitchcockian BIRDS!
https://twitter.com/azgeopolitics/status/1617644367380090884/mediaviewer
——————-
They are collectively flocking like this known most commonly known as a ‘murder’ of crows.
It sounds like a judgement by Nature. There is punishment for murder? It’s coming.
I don’t believe in superstition. It brings bad luck.
😉
Laters.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 23 2023 23:11 utc | 113
Mercouris can be obtuse at times – much as I enjoy his reports.
Clearly the issue with there German tanks is not that they will change the course of the battle rather it is about showing unity and obedience. Once you let one stray you may lose control of the heard – they are being whipped into line.
Posted by: jared | Jan 23 2023 23:16 utc | 114
Thanks for your reply, Karlof1. I can’t speak to how well Baltic Russians are treated, but I am seeing a lot out there about how things are only getting worse for them. If there is ever a proper shooting war with NATO, then I don’t imagine it would get any better. From what I have seen, Russia doesn’t like leaving things to chance and prefers to be proactive in facing challenges and eliminating threats.
On the Trump question, he is responsible for bringing the Ukraine question into America’s consciousness. So many Americans had never even heard about Ukraine much less how they have been treating Russians and also the corruption with Hunter Biden/ the Big Guy and all of the Biolabs too. So I think he deserves some credit for waking up so many Americans. His stolen second term wasn’t guaranteed and he wasn’t able to do what he wanted until after he was safely into his second term, which is probably going to happen from 2024 now that we are wise to the Dem treachery.
Posted by: R3DP1LL3R | Jan 23 2023 23:18 utc | 115
Posted by: solgar | Jan 23 2023 20:13 utc | 52
I don’t think Russia has plans for any major offensives.
One might note that much of Russia’s current activity in the South is aimed directly into the teeth of Ukraine’s planned offensive towards Melitopol.
It looks to me like Russia is doing some recon by force, trying to establish better defensive lines, and in general prepping the battlefield.
It may be Ukraine who is waiting for the ground to freeze so they have more avenues for their offensive.
NATO crumbles if they can’t remove Russia from Crimea.
Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 23 2023 23:21 utc | 116
Take a look at the pathetically absurd propaganda/journalism in this Canadian Broadcasting Corporation report:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-braces-for-russian-onslaught-1.6722542
The writer is not even in Ukraine, he’s in London. But more particularly, look at the photographs.
The first photo is a sixty yrs or more guy who is supposedly a soldier wearing snow camo.
The second photo has tag line purporting that it shows “tank traps” and “other fortifications”. The “tank traps” consist of three 2×4 boards tacked together into a sort of a-frame lean-to. They obviously have no hope of stopping an automobile let alone a tank. And the fortifications beyond are a little trench about waist deep. The soldier in that is manning an LMG on a bipod, on the ground, not emplaced.
The third one purports to be a section of trenches built by Ukraine on its northern border. It’s not wide enough for two soldiers to pass each other, and it’s barely chest deep. The supposed soldier depicted is not wearing snow camo but does have a nice bright yellow epaulet for some reason.
The final photo of the article appears to be the old guy again, standing ready in some kind of little hole with a submachine gun pointed at where some enemy is suppose to be.
The equipment and defensive measures are so obviously inadequate for any real purpose that anyone should be able to realize they are sets staged for photographs. But western media offers them to the public as some kind of reality. What a joke.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 23 2023 23:22 utc | 117
@Aristodemus 76
Thanks for your thoughtful and plausible “best-case scenario” for this conflict. Where do you imagine Odessa would figure in such an arrangement? One can only imagine the lengths to which the Western powers would go to use this significant civilizational center and strategic port as a base for intrigue unless it (and Nikloaev) were safely within RF jurisdiction.
Posted by: inspector general | Jan 23 2023 23:23 utc | 118
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 23 2023 19:08 utc | 27
Thanks, great article!
This is the first winter in my lifetime Oregon has been colder than Wisconsin.
Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 23 2023 23:24 utc | 119
@ unimperator | Jan 23 2023 20:05 utc | 49
I’ve long pondered the self-defeating if not suicidal behavior of the Balts and finally settled on inbreeding.
The Poles on the other hand suffered in and after WWII in effect two cullings by the Nazis and Soviets of anyone half-bright.
Posted by: John Kennard | Jan 23 2023 23:27 utc | 120
IntelSlava is reporting the resignations of the deputy head of Zelenskiy’s office and four oblast heads, and also that massive flocks of crows are harrying Kiev (nice 9-second vid).
Posted by: John Kennard | Jan 23 2023 23:30 utc | 121
Hitchcockian BIRDS!
They are collectively flocking like this known most commonly known as a ‘murder’ of crows.
It sounds like a judgement by Nature. There is punishment for murder? It’s coming.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 23 2023 23:11 utc | 113
By the flight pattern and numbers, those are a much smaller bird, likely starlings. And it is likely due to incoming bad weather rather than an omen.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 23 2023 23:33 utc | 122
Thanks for the replies; all were helpful. I was trying to find a non-military solution, and it seems possible the Big Picture will solve the Smaller Picture’s problems via economic collapse of the dollar then euro zones. Yes, IMO it’s in both Russian and Chinese interests for the collapse to be slow, but IMO neither Russia nor China can control the timing unless they continue to withhold the introduction of the new Intenational trading currency and related institution(s). However, doing so would risk angering RoW, IMO, and that would be very unfortunate as solidarity will be required for several generations during the paradigm change.
After Ukraine is solved, regarding the Baltics all that might be needed is for the Bear to growl and menace to get its way particularly with the dollar collapse is included in the scenario. As I wrote above, geography is a tough master, and all European nations are geoeconomically dependent on Russia and now China too, the latter for different reasons. And with Neoliberalism’s implosion, the rest of Europe will again be offered the opportunity to join the EAEU,
The nations left out will be the 5-Eyes, although New Zealand and Australia seem to have better escape means than UK and Canada. The overall aim is to keep the nuclear genie inside his lamp. The zealots within the Outlaw US Empire’s power structure are madmen and extremely dangerous, so it’s impossible to predict how they’ll react to being demoted to understudies after being stars in their minds.
Maybe this has been posted already and I may have missed it. Graham Philips and friends “On the Road to Soledar, supposedly posted 3 days ago. Mud, mud, and more mud. If those roads were graveled at one time, its been lost down into the mud. In a Jaguar no less…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX_qp_A1vyo
Posted by: DakotaRog | Jan 23 2023 23:36 utc | 124
R3DP1LL3R | Jan 23 2023 21:49 utc | 84
Pretty sure in view of recent developments between RF and Belarus that there is virtually no chance for a “color revolution” in Belarus. US already tried it and failed. Any further attempts would be foiled immediately by RF. Once bitten, etc.
Posted by: inspector general | Jan 23 2023 23:38 utc | 125
Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 23 2023 23:21 utc | 116
Slow tactics have been working just fine. Everyone in the west is getting very jumpy because they are simply in panic and fear, and media disinformation FUD umbrella.
The one big thing is that the “Nato package of vehicles” isn’t any kind of game changing extra – it came simply out of necessity because the Soviet vehicles ran out. Soviet vehicles might actually be even better suited for terrain and weather like in Ukraine than modern Nato stuff. You can bet on it US wished that they had a lot more T-72s, they don’t. It’s really awesome how they are screwing Germany up now, though. US will grab the EUropean tank market for itself.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 23 2023 23:39 utc | 126
Haassaan | Jan 23 2023 23:21 utc | 116
NATO crumbles if they can’t remove Russia from Crimea
If that is true, then NATO is sure to crumble.
Posted by: inspector general | Jan 23 2023 23:39 utc | 127
By the flight pattern and numbers, those are a much smaller bird, likely starlings. And it is likely due to incoming bad weather rather than an omen.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 23 2023 23:33 utc | 122
Or… or… target practice for their AA escaped somehow.
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 23 2023 23:42 utc | 128
Serbian President Vucic on the current agenda of the West.
“What worries me is that there is no longer a rational approach to solving problems. I saw this at the meeting with the Big Five. No matter what I said and no matter what facts I gave, no one wanted to listen to me.
Reason no longer plays any role. They have their own agenda, and that is the defeat of Russia, and along the way, anyone who gets in their way will be mopped up”
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/30318
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 23 2023 23:43 utc | 129
Andrew Celestina @112–
Excellent points. As discussed here, there’s no NATO dismissal mechanism.
R3DP1LL3R @115–
Thanks for your reply. I’ve monitored the Baltic/Russian problems since 1991. The big difference between them and Ukraine is they weren’t helped/subjected to OSS/CIA influence in keeping Nazism alive via ongoing support for OUN as happened in Ukraine. Of the three, Estonia’s in the worst shape, but Latvia’s not much better. Lithuania has the most resources and thus is the better off of the three. Examining their interwar period of independence is very illuminating and helps understand their current prejudices.
On Trump, yes he was much better for us all than Hillary Clinton, but he never proved to be as big as his talk, which is why he failed. 2024 will be a critical election cycle; probably the most critical since 1932.
It’s been nothing but pure, uncut zrada for Ukraine the last couple weeks. Delays on already-meagre deliveries of tanks, government in chaos, fronts collapsing in slow motion, impressment getting difficult, NATO nations breaking rank. Oh, and the latest round of cruise missiles is due in a few days. You love to see it.
Posted by: catdog | Jan 23 2023 23:49 utc | 131
@karlofi, §80
It´ll be a return to the Cold War.
The Baltics, stirred up by the psychotically Russophobic British, will be the front line, along with revanchist Polandand, to a much lesser degree, Rumania. But if Rumania picked up Bessarabia and Snake Island (i.e. return to the 1939 frontier along the Dniester), I think the Rumanians would make friends with the Russians and, rather like the French did, ditch the EU and NATO in exchange for a free hand viz. living freely. Norway and Finland would also cool down and seek to return to friendship and normal relations with Russia.
So it won´t be quite like the Cold War with an ideological divide across the World: it´ll just be frosty relations between the Baltics and Poland on the one hand and Russia on the other. If Germany has anything to do with it, the frozen relations will just remain between the Baltics/Poland and Russia and everything else will return to business as before.
Galicia-Wolynia will remain totally dependent on the Poles, which neither side will like – but they deserve each other.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 23 2023 23:55 utc | 132
Breaking news: Ukranian media, such as Strana, reports that the deputy head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, offered to resign from his post. In his place, they plan to appoint the head of the military administration of the Kiev region, Alexei Kuleba, to the post.
In addition, the heads of administrations of Sumy, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, which are associated with Kyrylo Tymoshenko, may resign.
There is no official confirmation of this information yet. This would be a major purge/split in the government. We shall remind you that there was a serious confrontation between the various departments of Ukraine’s non-government agencies, including sweeping accusations of corruption, the conflict between Zaluzhnyy and Zelenskyy, as well as the war between the SBU and the State Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
—-
Following mass resignations, the National Security and Defence Council has banned Ukrainian civil servants, law enforcers and MPs from travelling abroad. Deputy Prosecutor-General Oleksiy Symonenko was also dismissed – Rada MP Zheleznyak.
——
Sudden evening – (almost overnight) – personnel decisions in Ukraine, what do they mean? A personnel revolution before the imminent storm.
First of all, – official information: “Already there are personnel decisions – some of them today, some tomorrow – concerning different level managers in ministries and other central government bodies, in regions, and in the law enforcement system.” -Zelensky
I mean at least (and this is confirmed by the Ukrainian media) the deputy head of the President’s Office (analog of our AP), Kirill Timoshenko, the heads of Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya. As a result, some of those, who were considered to be “British creatures” (and even had a corresponding secret passport), are under criminal investigation; the process is being initiated by the US directly and by their “parallel power structures” like NABU
It is a fact that there are serious contradictions between SBU and SDU, so serious that the heads of these bodies had to deny them publicly (!) the other day. It is related to the fact that the SBU is closely supervised by the US, while the SDU is more independent (despite the fact that the Pentagon shares information with the SDU).
One could argue that the deeper reason is the contradictions between the CIA and the Pentagon, which are also reflected in Ukrainian politics, but that would be a conspiracy theory.
And as for the dismissals, – Tymoshenko is a bargaining chip instead of Ermak, whom the curators have been after for a long time, but the heads of regions are a sure sign that Ukraine is not just expecting but is sure of Russia’s offensive. The replacements are not only for the more trustworthy, but also for the more firm and resolute. In essence, this is the formation of military administrations.
——
So, what is known about the personnel changes in the Ukrainian government.
1. Strana’s sources confirm that the deputy head of the presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, has tendered his resignation. The heads of the Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Sumy and Kherson oblasts, who are affiliated with him, are also resigning.
2. Oleksiy Kuleba, head of the Kiev regional administration, is taking over from Tymoshenko.
3. As for the government, there have been rumours since the morning of the resignations of three ministers – Energy Minister Galushchenko, Sports Minister Gutzeit and Strategic Industry Minister Ryabikin.
4. As for Defence Minister Reznikov, after the recent corruption scandal over the purchase of overpriced products for the AFU, calls for his resignation were squashed. But today, after a meeting of the parliamentary committee on national security and defence, the “servants of the people” actually took the minister under their protection, saying that there were no claims against him. So, apparently, there is no command to dismiss him. At least, not yet.
5. There are also still unconfirmed rumours about the resignation of Prime Minister Shmygal, who was closely linked to the suspected deputy minister of infrastructure, community, and territorial development, Vasyl Lozinski.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/30342
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 24 2023 0:02 utc | 133
Haassaan @119–
I’ve lived in Oregon for the last twenty years and often Oregon is colder than Wisconsin, both in Winter and Summer.
@pipedream, §103
The NeoCons are getting desperate. They´re pressurizing Japan, against its constitution, to re-arm for aggressive warfare against China. It´s clear that the NeoCons intend to use Japan against China exactly as they have used the Ukraine against Russia. The Japanese must be blind and stupid if they can´t see this. They´re also further impoverishing themselves buying useless, inordinately expensive, American white elephants (like the F-35).
Germany looks like it´s wising up. After Nordstream, they´re beginning to wonder how much America considers Germany´s interests. And the penny´s dropping that the Americans don´t give a damn.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 24 2023 0:12 utc | 135
John Marks @132–
It’ll be a return to the Cold War.
Well, no as the Baltics were part of USSR and Poland part of the Warsaw Agreement Bloc.
Posted by: Outraged | Jan 23 2023 19:54 utc | 43
Superb post. You win the thread, as usual.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 21:38 utc | 80
You know my answer to your question. Russia doesn’t have to do anything about those Aegis Ashore installations – directly. They merely have to install military bases in western Ukraine with Zircons, and MiG 31Ks, and maybe a tank Army. Restore MAD as the principle.
ALL:
Gonzalo Lira has a new one up:
2023.01.23 About Those F-16’s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fY7PdnSP3g
And Brian Berletic’s latest:
Russian Gains, US Gears Up for Crimea Escalation, US Proxies Strike China/Pakistan in Train Bombing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9MMPHd8Bwk
From the description:
40,078 views Jan 23, 2023
Update on Russian-Ukrainian conflict for January 23, 2023 + Pakistan train bombing as part of US proxy war on China.
– Russian forces are reportedly advancing in Zaporozhye while Ukraine continues losing ground around Bakhmut;
– Russian pushes in Zaporozhye could be (1) recon in force, (2) extending existing security zone ahead of actual Russian front line or (3) spoiling attacks on forces assembling for a future offensive;
– Ukrainian losses are severe and Reuters is reporting on supposed warnings by the US to Ukraine about going on the offensive;
– Weapon shipments have been announced for Ukraine including a significant US DoD package, as well as all of Denmark’s Caesar self-propelled howitzers and all of Estonia’s FH-70 towed howitzers;
– A recent bombing targeting a train in southwest Pakistan is part of a long-term proxy conflict waged by Washington against China and its Belt and Road partners;
– The US has promoted separatism in Pakistan’s southwest region of Baluchistan for years specifically to block Chinese-Pakistani cooperation and development;
And The Duran guys discuss Lavrov’s recent comments:
Lavrov, ‘War with west no longer hybrid, but almost real’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCBcbEA09vQ
Also I see the German BND has acknowledged that Ukraine is losing soldiers “in triple digits” daily in Bakhmut as reported in Der Spiegel, as reported over at Antiwar.com. I suspect the “triple digits” is an understatement, and at best it’s probably 999 a day.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 24 2023 0:17 utc | 137
@karlof1, §112
Great thinking!
I now hope Hungary & Turkey remain in NATZO – and destroy it.
@136
Being part of the USSR is irrelevant.
Georgia, Turkmenistan, etc., etc., were part of the USSR.
It doesn´t follow that Russia wants them back.
In fact, Putin has said repeatedly he has no interest in regaining the Baltics. He would like friendly neighbours, but that´s about it.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 24 2023 0:23 utc | 138
@ Figleaf, §117
Shouldn´t surprise you that the writer´s in London, Figleaf.
The British are almost psychotic in their unreasoning, unjustified venom against Russia.
Stuck in the James Bond era perhaps?
Or even the Victorian “Great Game” era?
The British are finished as even a medium power if they carry on as they´re doing.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 24 2023 0:31 utc | 139
@ inspector general, §118
Odessa will be Russian again.
Had peace been made last year, when Boris Johnson blew it out of the water, the Ukraine might have hung on to Odessa.
No way the Russians will wear that now.
They´ll probably leave Bessarabia to Rumania, but that´ll be little comfort to Zelensky.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 24 2023 0:35 utc | 140
Arestovich seems trying to open a way to defect:
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/30253
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 24 2023 0:35 utc | 141
@LightYearsFromHome, §133
There´s also been much talk of disaffection amongst the Ukrainian ranks, even “Z will be lucky if the Russians get to Kiev before the retreating Ukrainians”!
To what degree is a coup against Zelensky, possibly by the non-Nazi Ukrainian troops likely or, given the ferocity of the Ukronazi secret police, possible?
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 24 2023 0:43 utc | 142
So, the RF starts it’s long awaited advance only to come to a screeching halt less than 48 hours later. Meantime resignations, dismissals and detentions of very well placed officials on the Ukie side.
Seeing as though the Ukie narrative is based on a pack of lies, I can’t help but think mass panic had set in, that fear of being exposed as liars has them taking these radical steps, given that surely to maintain the lie everyone must be extremely disciplined.
Is it all falling apart for the Ukies? Is that why the RF stopped in their tracks? Because they have planned and prefer the methodical dismantling of Ukraine and can’t have or don’t want an Afghan style collapse on their hands?
Posted by: North Patagonia | Jan 24 2023 0:44 utc | 143
@North Patagonia | Jan 24 2023 0:44 utc | 143
No offensive has started yet. Just more of what has been for the past couple of months so far.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 24 2023 1:01 utc | 144
A podcast featuring Brian Berletic. I don’t know the other two but they ask Brian a number of questions. I find these Q&A’s and round tables far more interesting than the individual video or blog presentations.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3finWsL9rc3Qf0akRzbO2n?si=y6tpfSnpQUqG0ISJQCDSWA&utm_source=copy-link&nd=1
Plans for a western spring offensive appear to have been disrupted by current necessity. US now saying the Bradleys will be in Ukraine in the next few weeks. Rather than putting together a new army for the spring, it seems that it will be fed in piecemeal as soon as possible.
If the Israel and Korean artillery shells plus the Bradleys turn up in Ukraine the the Biden classified docs will have done their job and the russophobe US faction in the US has got one up on the attack China faction.
In the linked video Berletic speaks about the coming war against China and his thoughts are the same as mine.
New speaker of the house in the US house of bullshit and insanity is planning a trip to Taiwan following in the footsteps of Pelosi.
About the previous thread. Watching the madness of the western world like this, currently it is anglo five-eyes vs the rest. Europeans are now paying the price of thinking they were part of the in crowd. Once we go to war with China, Australia will suffer the same fate as Europe. US will sacrifice all these fools before it to goes down.
Having my house ransacked because I researched a NSW vs Commonwealth court case of the 1930’s, seeing those aboard MH17 sacrificed so we could attack Russia, we became the ISIS airforce at Deir Ezzor, now we train cannon fodder from nazi Ukraine and send the Nazi’s military equipment, Yank bases/occupation of northern Australia…. A lot of anger that surfaces at times.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 24 2023 1:01 utc | 145
Posted by: John Marks 140
Russia has too much invested in this not to take Odessa. Odessa is Russian/the trades union massacre/capture of rest of coastline and denial of Black Sea access to whatever rump is left of Ukraine. May also be useful in the future as a cudgel against the future Ukraine rump – ‘if you’re nice and comply with de-militarization agreements, you get access to the port, otherwise consider yourself landlocked.’
Posted by: Mike R | Jan 24 2023 1:04 utc | 146
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 24 2023 0:09 utc | 134
Oregon summers are always cooler than Wisconsin’s.
The winters never are, not west of the Cascades anyways.
This is the first time, I have been here in Oregon since 1994.
Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 24 2023 1:05 utc | 147
They´ll probably leave Bessarabia to Rumania, but that´ll be little comfort to Zelensky.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 24 2023 0:35 utc | 140
Not a lot of Romanians in Bessarabia, Bulgarians are the dominant minority there.
Romania can get Chernivtsi, it is their land and has never really been Russian. But they shouldn’t get it given their behavior in the war. Same reason Southern Dobrudzha was kept by Bulgaria after WWII — Romania sent whole divisions to the Eastern Front, Bulgaria stayed out. Stalin remembered.
This is also the reason why Poland shouldn’t get anything. Why should they be rewarded with territory (even if it means burdening them with the denazification problem) after all they did?
Hungary is the only one that has a moral right to take anything — the southwestern strip of Transcarpathia. But not the whole region, as most of it is not Hungarian, it is dominated by Rusyns. BTW, the Ukrainians refuse to recognize the Rusyns as a separate ethnicities, which is because the Rusyns tend to actually be pro-Russian. This is also why mobilization in Transcarpathia has been so thorough and so heavy handed — they are trying to ethnically cleanse the region through combat.
Anyway, for this (can’t leave the Rusyns to be slaughtered in a rump Ukraine) and many other reasons, discussed many times here, Russia needs to take over the whole thing.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jan 24 2023 1:13 utc | 148
John Marks | Jan 24 2023 0:43 utc | 142
Coops need backers.
Backers are always controlled by the intell agencies. CIA/Mi6.
They can either cooperate, or be in conflict, depending on the players and the end goal.
IMHO the crumbling edifice in Ukraine is the outer edge of the crumbling and conflict within the U$ domestic politics.
A large enough cohort know what Bidenz Pelosi John Kerry McCain and others were up to in Ukraine since 2004. They are going to use that against each other.
Look at Manafort. He was deep in the grift in the pre-Maiden 2004 shenanigans in Ukraine. By 2015-17, 1once he was Team Trump, his Ukraine grift was used against him.
Pelosi no longer controls the House… she was a spider at the central hub of the web.
What’s in the Biden Papers? Enough to block Joe from running in 24, for sure.
Trump might now understand why he was impeached when he kicked over the Ukraine Rick… second tier “Trumpies” can use what’s hidden in Ukraine as a sledgehammer.
(Wagner vibes)
Twitter. Musk ATM is allowing all sorts of facts {warghh disinformation} from getting out into the blogosphere.
Sites like this + Berletic, Duran, Macgregor, Ritter, Clayton Morris/Redacted, Jackson Hinkle, Joe Rogan, iEarlGrey, Tucker, Larry Johnson…. Some are reaching 100k views..
The great majority will never know, but the influential “edge” is achieving cut thru.
My point. Yes the House of Cards in Ukraine is toppling… because the foundation of sand in the U$ has fractured.
I couldn’t see Zelensky surviving a U$ presidential campaign… but the Russian push is now undeniable, and “facts on the ground” are forcing the U$ to commit to a real war with Russia, or declare victory and leave.
They’ll need a new front man to wave in front of the CNN sheep, to sell them a new narrative.
Ukraine can and will be forgotten in a cacophony of presidential bullshit from now to 24.
In fact, better Ukraine is buried deep now, so next year: “oh, duh. Ukraine…. That’s so 2023”, we’re looking ahead now. “
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 1:17 utc | 149
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 23 2023 23:39 utc | 126
Yep, I agree. Western tanks aren’t going to fair any better then Soviet ones. In some ways they will be worse.
Posted by: Haassaan | Jan 24 2023 1:26 utc | 150
Andrew Celestina @112
Interesting and fascinating take. Thanks for the thoughts.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 1:41 utc | 151
Today’s Propaganda Lesson of the Day
Countries with 5000+ nuclear warheads cannot credibly claim to be threatened by countries with 0 nuclear warheads.
Maybe one of the PhD level commenters on MoA could explain the logic at work in believing that Russia is threatened by Ukraine?
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 1:44 utc | 152
Dungroanin @113
Hitchcock: Murder of Crows. Terminologically, however that meme originated, I do not know. Could look it up, I spose.
On a personal basis I’m reminded of the legislation passed by the Republicrat and Democan caucuses which do their due diligence to create the laws of the U$$A for their financial backers.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 1:48 utc | 153
@ Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 1:44 utc | 152
you have to be pretty thick to not notice how ukraine is being used ( and destroyed ) by the west… come back in a few years time when you figure that much out.. cheers..
Posted by: james | Jan 24 2023 1:58 utc | 154
Haassaan @116
A Ukie offensive in the Zap region??? It was improbable when the concept was first bandied about several months ago. Even at the time, my intuition based on facts on the ground was “with what would they do that”? Well, those months have come and gone and so has the original well-trained Ukie army, now comfortably resting until their next reincarnation.
The matter of equipment is even more meaningful than their tattered and battered conscript and mercenary forces. In case you haven’t been following the Slavangrad postings, perhaps you could re-read some of them from recent days.
Pay careful attention to the number of tanks the Russians have destroyed. I’ll cheat and tell you right now. Over the last several days the tank total amounts to exactly ZERO.
The Ukes have lost a few pieces of light armor and quite a few PICKUP TRUCKS. By now you will be aware that most of the heavier posters here have inevitably decried the likely fates of the Western hodgepodge of tanks and tankettes…oh and they will also donate a partridge in a pear tree.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 2:00 utc | 155
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 1:44 utc | 152
Hey retard, this is NATO vs. Russia.
Perhaps high-school dropouts such as yourself should be listening to the PhD’s instead of running your stupid mouth?
Posted by: ZenBot3000 | Jan 24 2023 2:01 utc | 156
Unusually cold in California.
If you want a fun rabbit hole look into all the patents on weather modification. Tl;dr you can’t change the weather because the atmosphere makes it a zero sum game, but it is possible to shift weather around.
Very lucky for Ukraine that the ground hasn’t fully frozen and the need for heating fuel is not as dire as normal.
Posted by: Sideshow Bob | Jan 24 2023 2:02 utc | 157
Hey Mutt @152
Some of us are wondering as to how many $hekels you earn per posting. Inquiring minds would love to know. Some of us are a bit on the low-income scale…and perhaps some of the some would enjoy knowing the sums involved. Would posters who are more than half-literate be acceptable to the paymasters?
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 2:04 utc | 158
Inspector general @118
Thanks for the thanks. We all enjoy when our efforts receive some appreciation. We are, after all, engaged in this post-doctoral armchair general ongoing seminars. What would you think about the nomination of karlof1 as Field Marshal…or at least to hold the rank of Colonel-General of this caucus of concern and interest.
Why are we here? Suspicion is that at least a plurality of posters have been warriors in past lifetimes and even some in this crazy-quilt time of millennial significance.
To get back to your query: The city and oblast of Odessa stands as a memorial to Tsarina Catherine the Great and to her general Potemkin. The plurality, if not full majority of its citizens are ethnic Russians. Thus, will the government of V.V. Putin have no choice of any future possibility of leaving it in “unfriendly” hands.
That said, Romania will be instructed to remove any NATO bases from their soil. Compliance likely would be a treaty guaranteeing the safety of the Romanian state from any form of foreign interference in their national, neutral affairs.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 2:16 utc | 159
no phd needed, u too easy to muck with!
Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 1:44 utc | 152
ukronazis are neocon, imperialist pawns,
it is not a universal human right, outside the usa of profitable militarism, to be a nuclear deployed colony of bill krystol.
Posted by: paddy | Jan 24 2023 2:17 utc | 160
aristodemos – frankly, I don’t trust Romania as far as I can throw them. US troops and equipment are flooding into that country (more than NATO lets on) and this is all presumably with Romania’s blessing. I wouldn’t be opposed to Russia making sure that there is no chance of a NATO naval base on the Black Sea. It’s not just the US who is agreement-incapable. I would hate for Charlie Brown’s football to be swiped away at the last second yet again.
Posted by: R3DP1LL3R | Jan 24 2023 2:24 utc | 161
(cont.)
A Russian military presence at any Romanian naval or land bases would be imperative to insure that there is no lingering NATO presence. Only then should any agreements be signed.
Posted by: R3DP1LL3R | Jan 24 2023 2:27 utc | 162
John Marks@132
“They deserve each other”. Generally agree with your statement. However, seeing this bunch of bar-flies need a light movement or two, imagine this: There’s this bar in Lvov which has been a Banderite hangout for years. So Poohland becomes the new governing entity and government buildings close to that bar are filled with persnickety, prideful and pretentious administrative bureaucrats.
Vodka, being highly favored by both parties and after a few glasses have been emptied, a couple of dimwits from both sides get into an initially somewhat mild disagreement about whether Polish or Galician vodka is the better drink. So they both stand up and totter towards each other. Ranging in, a rather sloppy fist-fight begins. Cheering and booing break out as one and then the other connect or take hits….
One of em stumbles and hits the floor….
Situation number next, the best buddy of the guy on the floor promptly jumps up and coldcocks the apparent winner,
Then all hell breaks out…
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 2:35 utc | 163
Today’s Propaganda Lesson of the Day
Countries with 5000+ nuclear warheads cannot credibly claim to be threatened by countries with 0 nuclear warheads.
Maybe one of the PhD level commenters on MoA could explain the logic at work in believing that Russia is threatened by Ukraine?
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 1:44 utc |
——————————————————-
“As of July 8, the United States has 6,800 warheads, according to datafrom Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris at the Federation of American
scientists. 2,800 of them are retired, 4,000 are stockpiled, and 1,800 are deployed. The total number of U.S. warheads is second only to Russia, which currently has 7,000 of them.” (https://time.com/4893175/united-states-nuclear-weapons/)
The issue is not how many warheads Russia has but how many of the United States and European warheads will be placed on the Ukrainian border with Russia? I have no PhD, but I would have thought a genius like you would have known this already.
You must think this is a war between the Russia and Ukraine, you idiot, haven’t you learned anything while trolling MoA? The war is a US/NATO proxy war against Russia.
Posted by: Ed | Jan 24 2023 2:35 utc | 164
Muthuaker – Just how many NATO warheads on the borders of RF/Belarus do you think is “fair”? How do you think NATO would feel if there were Russian warheads all along its borders? You seem like someone who resides in a NATO country, so I implore you to please try and think about this from Russia’s perspective and not just NATO’s.
Posted by: R3DP1LL3R | Jan 24 2023 2:41 utc | 165
RedPiller @161
You do make an interesting point regarding possibly large number of munitions and machines cluttering up the Romanian countryside.
The Russians may very well consider them as an existential threat and give Bucharest the customary 30 days before Russian inspection teams will enter their land. If those few inspectors are in any way molested, both the Romanian and U$$A regimes will have been duly forewarned that the next inspectors will be Mr. Kinzhal and Mr. Zircon which will give a demonstrative inspection of a couple of locations where such elements would be found and specifically identified by satellite recon.
If that pair of purely kinetic messengers are not heeded promptly, the final sentence in the diplomatic conveyance will be duly informed that the RF has a plenitude of those persuaders.
My understanding is that the French call such persuasion as “Force Majeure.”
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 2:45 utc | 166
aristodemos – I like it! You know, so much of the problems in the world would go away if us Americans would just stay in our hemisphere. Otherwise, we might just find the Chinese and the Russians encroaching on ours…
Posted by: R3DP1LL3R | Jan 24 2023 2:53 utc | 167
Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 1:44 utc | 152
Damnit I know better than to bite your bait.
>Grenada. Threatened the U$. How?
>Panama. Threatened the U$. How?
>Cuba. Threatens the U$…. How?
>Haiti. Puerto Rico?
>Nicaragua ?
>Guatemala?
>Venezuela?
>North Korea?
>Vietnam?
All felt the crushing devastation of U$ asserting its hegemony.
Ukraine. At least 20% is actually Russians who found themselves on the other side of a fence after the disintegration of the USSR.
Crimea. The Sevastopol port founded by Tsarist Catherine Bolshoi (a port existing for as long as the U$ has been a nation). Russian.
The U$ intended for Ukraine to reactive its nuclear capability.
And as Cuba compressively demonstrated… 60+ years ago… neither nuclear power will tolerate the other installing weapons in such proximity.
But you know all this, and post here for sport.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 3:04 utc | 168
Oops @ 153
This machine sometimes sabotages the war effort. Primary purport of my message was that my preference is not “A Murder of Crows”, rather a Caucus of Crows”. Liking the onomatopoeic resonance of that and it also relates to the fact that the Republicrats and the Democans employ caucuses in their legislative efforts in order to keep on getting in on the grease “donated” to their campaign funding by the WarDefense industry and other “interested” financial and corporate entities.
To make this more explicit, I could change the spelling to “Caw-Cu$$” of Crows.
Seems like those pro$titians are Ravenous for all that grease.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 3:06 utc | 169
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 2:04 utc | 158
I don’t make a dollar. But I do note that when confronted with truth, those who are heavily propagandized respond with threats and slurs. Thats because the truth scares you and threatens your group-think echo-chamber. The truth is Ukraine was never a threat to Russia, neither was/is NATO. Why? Because Russia has over 5000 nuclear warheads. Period. End of story.
I am fascinated by propaganda however, and MoA is a case study in propaganda.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 3:09 utc | 170
Damnit I know better than to bite your bait.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 3:04 utc | 168
You are usually an honest poster and all of what you say is true and also irrelevant to the discussion.
Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine. To believe otherwise is to be propagandized at the most base level. Which is where propaganda starts.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 3:15 utc | 171
“The plan to engage Russia militarily is a tacit admission that the United States can no longer maintain its global dominance through economic or political means alone.” – Mike Whitney a few days ago.
It never could. Far from it. But the general point is well taken. Re-establishing even a fragile peace beats irradiation by quite a distance. Time to back off and think about thinking instead.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jan 24 2023 3:15 utc | 172
R3DP1LL3R | Jan 24 2023 2:24 utc | 161
Romania. Is on my Bingo card.
Constanza is reasonably convenient for defence of Odessa.
The USNATO repeatedly *say* Crimea with return to Ukraine.
{I’ll pause which the @bar guffaws and tells me “it can never happen “.}
That doesn’t mean the Crazies are not going to die trying.
Remember. The Maiden’s primary purpose was to seize Sevastopol.
Israel still wants Crimea. It’s their backup plan for when their shitty desert abscess becomes untenable.
Laugh away.
I’m “going on record”…. Romania. A “lillypad” for an assault on Crimea.
I’m not saying a “successful” assault. IMVHO, they are going to attempt something stupid there.
I just know it. And if you were watching what they are packing into Romania while everyone is talking Poland…. If you were astute, you’d likely agree with me.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 3:18 utc | 173
Redpillar @167
Another fascinating point…one which has almost haunted my daydreams.
One commentator I caught on another site today is convinced that the aim of sucking in all those border-jumpers is to destabilize this ruptured republic with a grand total of One-Hundred Million of them. Been wondering as to how many of them have had military training and how many of the officers among them have been “guests” of the so-called “School of the Americas”…the #1 terrorist training temple on the face of the planet.
I’m a bit old to begin learning Mandarin or even solve the weirdo Cyrillic alphabet, let alone the highly complex grammar undergirding the Russian language. If its the Russians, one could alway offer them the traditional friendly greeting of bread and salt. By that time the only bread we would have would be baked by hand.
For those who may be fortunate enough to have stored up some rice, perhaps they would be pleased by a rather sweet dish favored by elderly Scandihoovian ancestored Minnesotans called “Glorified Rice”. Don’t know the other ingredients beyond the rice itself and a plenitude of crushed pineapple. The dish may well hie back to Depression times when rice, sugar and canned pineapple where plentiful and relatively cheap. That one could be a pleasant surprise to Chinese soldiers/authorities who have yet to sample Norskie cookin.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 24 2023 3:19 utc | 174
Goddam autocorrect.
I know it changes things even after I wrangle with it and think I’ve won..
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 3:22 utc | 175
Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 3:15 utc | 171
“Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine.”
No. Russia is defending itself.
From USNATO.
Analogy time:
A hammer is a useful benign tool.
Until someone picks it up and starts lunging and swinging at me.
I might defect a dozen times… and then I’m going to do what I can to disarm and disable you.
This is USNATO..
Ukraine is the hammer.
Russia has deflected for decades.
And now comes the consequences. The hammer is destroyed.
And USNATO will be further disarmed and disabled.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 3:29 utc | 176
Please stop feeding the troll. First I have to read his nonsense and then all the responses. It’s annoying. Just ignore Mutty mutt.
Posted by: Kurt | Jan 24 2023 3:30 utc | 177
Muthaucker,
Don’t trust anything you tell yourself while possessed by the demons of your inner shit.
Posted by: Irish | Jan 24 2023 3:31 utc | 178
This Global War only ends after de-dollarization.and that will take years.
Posted by: Exile | Jan 24 2023 3:46 utc | 179
@ Muthaucker,
Nuclear or non-nuclear, no country need be acceptive of a belligerent multinational offensive force moving up to its border nor be acceptive of a country exercising genocide against its minority population in violation of a UN Security Resolution to honor Minsk 2, which called for an autonomous zone, a common solution to such matters in other countries of the world including Europe.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 24 2023 3:50 utc | 180
No. Russia is defending itself.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 3:29 utc | 176
Yes. Russia is the victim. Russia must be the victim for the propaganda to work. Then everyone who believes the propaganda can be a victim of Big, Bad, Uncle Sam. MoA all are just victims. And like victims throughout time you justify your atrocities on being victims.
Like I said, the commentary on MoA is a case study in propaganda and mind control.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 3:56 utc | 181
@ Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 24 2023 3:50 utc | 180
Here is the UN Minsk 2 document for those who have forgotten, and the vote, including the votes of Germany, France and the USA. Who now say they had no intention of ever implementing it.
https://press.un.org/en/2015/sc11785.doc.htm
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 24 2023 3:57 utc | 182
re: the pessimist | Jan 23 2023 21:14 utc | 69
you wrote, “ from RT opinion piece on Wagner group ‘terrorist’ designation, Y. Prigozhin wrote:
It is very important to note that we have never behaved aggressively towards the Americans, but, nevertheless, we have not accepted rudeness from them. On more than one occasion, we have caught armed groups and American intelligence officers who tried to harm the Wagner PMC and organized assassination attempts. Each time we kicked their asses and let them go in peace (there is plenty of video footage), and, before sending them home, we fed them lunch and dinner.
That’s why the Americans are perplexed: we don’t touch them, but we also don’t let them push us around. That’s why they are so upset. We don’t want what’s theirs, but we won’t give up what’s ours. Oh, man, you really hit a nerve. I think I’ve answered in full.”
Sorry, I don’t think the neocon Americans give a damn about civility, manners, or humanitarian acts, especially in wartime. The neocons are not “perplexed”, rather they are contemptuous and arrogantly amused. It is past time for Russia to take the gloves off.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 4:05 utc | 183
@ 181
So what are your positions on the matters in my 180? Belligerent offensive force on border? atrocities in Donbas? UNSC 2015 resolution? Let’s get to specifics instead of propaganda blathering.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 24 2023 4:08 utc | 184
re: Minsk II – there were 4 drafts, 4 attempts to agree.
Each one of those 4 designs was voted in favour of by RU/FRA/GER.
UKR voted “no” every single time.
At the very same time the UKR Rada passed language laws concerning e.g. Crimea, that were explicitely opposed to contents of the Minsk II-accords.
Still: The EU-Parliament sanctioned RU for not implementing those Minsk II accords, whilst it ignored the behaviour of the UKR government.
This additionally to the fact that EU did not put any pressure onto Kiev to accept the Minsk II agreement.
I urge everyone to read Nicolai Petro´s Study “Tragedy in Ukraine” from 2022/23 now published at De Gruyter. I guess public libraries have it (its 100$, alas).
https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783110743371/html
Even if for many it is not new – (I thought the content was very profound and a lot of research groundwork accomplished) – but it is excellent to convince others who would never read MoA.
Because Petro doesn´t blame any one side.
He stays “emphatic”. Which makes his case even more convincing.
But the fact are just there in plain sight. Right-wing, ultra nationalism since the 90s.
Petro himself admits in the book he underestimated the might and influence of Svoboda and the Right Sector when he started to work on his study 10 years ago.
Posted by: AG | Jan 24 2023 4:29 utc | 185
USNATO escalation in Ukraine. In 4 images..
https://twitter.com/HumansNoContext/status/1617477466649497600
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 24 2023 4:42 utc | 186
@AG | Jan 24 2023 4:29 utc | 185
The EU-Parliament sanctioned RU . . .EU did not put any pressure onto Kiev
The European Union is an illegal entity, a bloc which is not recognized by the United Nations because (1) it is not a nation and (2) it causes by its very nature to reduce the sovereignty of 27 European countries despite what the UN Charter says: “The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.”
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 24 2023 4:43 utc | 187
In order of important …
Their not crows or starlings Rooks.
It’s ‘just’ a flock of rooks.
They nest in large groups and at dawn fly in a flock to feeding grounds open bare fields. At dusk they fly back.
For the rest of this thread…
You all suffering from cognitive dissonance. Or failure to cope with the massive implications of the colapse of the western empire.
Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 24 2023 4:45 utc | 188
neither was/is NATO.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 3:09 utc | 170
The mask is taken off
Fanatical NATO supporters simultaneously believe that Russian nukes mean “NATO is just an excuse” and “our support for Ukrainian ultranationalists will not trigger any risk of nuclear war.”
If you believe that Russia will use nukes against NATO, then you should oppose any aid to the ultranationalist oligarchy. If you believe that Russia will not nuke NATO, then you must admit that NATO expansion is indeed the direct cause.
If these people really care of real Ukrainian people, they should help Ukrainian men who are suffering under the ultra-nationalist regime to escape the control of the Kiev regime.
It would be nice if they cared about the people in India, Sri Lanka and Africa (and Europe and the US) who are suffering from food and energy prices, instead of saying “I’m willing to pay more to Big Oil for Ukraine”.
Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 4:52 utc | 189
Posted by: Kurt | Jan 24 2023 3:30 utc | 177
Agreed. But people here never learn. It’s too much of an ego boost to dump on people and establish one’s superiority. It’s chimpanzee behavior that isn’t ever going to change.
https://img.ifunny.co/images/de933c78738cf1001c720014fe58b7b1a803f0adca238c536be3f2dd3e991145_1.webp
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 24 2023 4:55 utc | 190
re: Karlofi Jan 23 2023 21:38 utc | 80 and Jan 23 2023 22:57 utc | 109
you wrote “What will Russia do when the Outlaw US Empire/NATO say no as will surely be done to removing their missiles from Poland and Romania? Lavrov said that refusal to deal honestly with the proposals would necessitate a “military technical operation;” that outcome I presume still pertains.”
and “But bereft of the dollars to fuel it’s Ponzi and without a viable industrial base, how will the Outlaw US Empire be able to conduct such a war when there’s nothing to gain and everything to lose by going nuclear?”
I think you had already answered your own questions, but didn’t like what you found and so were hoping someone like Outraged could supply a plausible diplomatic solution (rather than nuclear war).
LightYearsFromHome | Jan 23 2023 23:43 utc | 129 gave the definitive answer to the question:
“ Serbian President Vucic on the current agenda of the West.
“What worries me is that there is no longer a rational approach to solving problems. I saw this at the meeting with the Big Five. No matter what I said and no matter what facts I gave, no one wanted to listen to me.
Reason no longer plays any role. They have their own agenda, and that is the defeat of Russia, and along the way, anyone who gets in their way will be mopped up”
IMO, the most likely scenario is that sometime in not too distant future, it will become unavoidably clear that, under a relentless assault of Russian forces, the Ukrainian armed forces will be in a state of collapse. Around this time I see a couple possibilities. Either (1) the US will create some excuse to send US, Romanian, and Polish troops into Western Ukraine, or (2) the US will give the green light to Poland to move into Galacia (and Poland certainly is eager to regain what it consider to be Polish territory by historical right). The neocons truly believe that the presence of US/NATO troops in Western Ukraine will cause Russia to “back down” rather than fight; they are dead wrong.
Poland is heavily committed in both these scenarios, plus all the weapons pouring into Ukraine are being routed through Poland, and perhaps that will lead Russia to hit Poland. But Russia is going to put the hammer down, and when it does, I expect it to fall not only on Polish troops but also on the Polish Aegis Ashore facility. I think if Russia takes out one facility, it will simultaneously take out the other.
And should the “coalition of the willing” — comprised of US, Polish, and Romanian troops (as described by Col. Douglas Macgregor) — make its way into western Ukraine, the hammer will also fall the Aegis Ashore facility in Romania.
Any open conflict with the US or US/NATO forces will quickly see these sites hit by Russian hypersonic missiles.
As you know, it will require some kind of divine intervention to prevent all that from quickly escalating into a nuclear war.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 24 2023 4:56 utc | 191
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 23 Jan 2023⚡️
♦️#Russia’s Border Areas:
◾️ Ukrainian militants shelled the village of #Volfino in Glushkovsky district, #Kursk region, damaging power lines. Several surrounding villages were temporarily de-energized.
◾️ Russian air defence forces shot down a Ukrainian missile near the village of #Kazinka, Valuysky urban district, #Belgorod Region, with no casualties or damage.
♦️#NorthUkraine (MAP):
◾️ The enemy command is moving personnel and equipment through #Kharkov for further transfer to the #Starobelsk direction, where additional forces may become involved in an offensive in the Nizhnyaya Duvanka – #Svatovo area.
◾️ In the #Sumy region, near the village of #Vysokoye, AFU artillery positions have been set up to strike the #Belgorod region. Target designation is provided by satellite data, drones and sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
◾️ In #Vasilkov in the #Kiev region, the Ukrainian command intends to deploy a Western-made anti-aircraft missile division to cover #Kiev.
◾️ In #Zhytomyr, #Chernigov, #Sumy and #Kharkov regions the mobilization and recruitment of new AFU formations continues. The enemy currently has no problems in replenishing the numerical strength.
♦️#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):
▪️ There are no significant changes in this section of the front, artillery duels and the work of sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue along the line of contact.
♦️#Soledar Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Soledar section, after the liberation of #Krasnopolye, the “Wagnerians” move towards #Razdolovka along one of the roads to #Seversk. Ukrainian militants attempted to attack Russian positions at the #Razdolovka – #Stryapovka line, but withdrew under artillery fire.
▪️ Northeast of #Bakhmut (#Artyomovsk), Russian forces are fighting near Krasnaya Gora, which Ukrainian militants are trying to prevent by shelling the positions of the RF Armed Forces. A significant number of artillery pieces and armoured vehicles have been moved to the area, but the enemy is beginning to suffer from a lack of shells.
▪️ In #Bakhmut itself, positional fighting continues on the southern and southeastern outskirts of the city. “The Wagnerians managed to occupy one of the residential areas on the #Opytnoye side.
▪️ Wagner PMC fighters expanded their zone of control around #Kleshchiyevka and are attacking the village of #Krasnoye in the north, the liberation of which will enable the operational encirclement of #Bakhmut.
♦️#Lugansk People’s Republic:
▪️ Overnight, Ukrainian militants fired HIMARS at the #Mikhailovka power substation in Zolote-5, damaging equipment and several outbuildings on the site.
♦️#Donetsk – #Zaporozhye Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Zaporozhye section, the RF Armed Forces have driven Ukrainian formations out of the coastal village of #Kamenskoye, but have yet not occupied the settlement due to active enemy artillery countermeasures. The settlement is now in the “grey zone”.
▪️ In the #Orekhov sector, the AFU managed to hold the line from Malye Shcherbaki to #Novodanilovka. The offensive is hampered by remote mining of adjacent territory with M73 cluster munitions by the Ukrainian army. Artillery duels are taking place along the line of contact.
▪️ In the #Vremyevka area, Russian fighters conducted a reconnaissance battle on the positions of the 231st Battalion of the AFU’s 128th Territorial Defence Brigade in #Vremyevka.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 4:56 utc | 192
Big, Bad, Uncle Sam
Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 24 2023 3:56 utc | 181
Have taken off the mask again.
Since you are so concerned about who is really the main victim, I suggest you find out it is the Ukrainian people.
So I highly recommend that you help more Ukrainian men escape the tyranny of the Kiev ultranationalist regime’s forced conscription and laws restricting freedom of travel, rather than calling sending weapons to Nazi forces “death to the Nazis” and whitewashing and sabotaging negotiations “keeping the peace”. ”
Posted by: Colin | Jan 24 2023 4:58 utc | 193
Interesting column from Financial Times…We post like this narated so people to avoid the paywall
🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦🇨🇳🇷🇺Financial Times:It will be difficult for the West to maintain unity in approaches to relations with Russia and China in 2023
Newspaper columnist Gideon Rahman believes that Western unity on the situation around Ukraine has already begun to crumble
Western countries will have problems trying to maintain a single course when building their relations with Russia and China in 2023. This opinion was expressed on Monday by Financial Times (FT) columnist Gideon Rahman.
He noted that Western unity on the situation around Ukraine has already begun to crumble, as evidenced by the differences between NATO member countries when discussing the transfer of German tanks to the Ukrainian authorities. The columnist added that despite the presence of “hawks” in the form of Poland, the Baltic states and the United Kingdom, which advocate the supply of the most powerful types of weapons to Ukraine, Germany remains extremely cautious on this issue, and the United States is in the middle between these two camps.
As Rahman stressed, the “hawks” are clearly dissatisfied with Washington’s restrained approach, which is not eager to send its Abrams tanks, but they are not ready to openly criticize the US authorities, since the White House remains the largest donor of weapons and financial assistance to Ukraine. According to the observer, these differences “can be settled now,” but possible failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming spring may strengthen the split between the countries.
At the same time, another factor of tension in relations between the United States and European states is the economy, including the protectionist plans of the White House to subsidize American automobile companies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which will be another blow to the competing European industry. EU member states fear that the conflict in Ukraine has ultimately accelerated the process of deindustrialization of the Old World.
In the context of relations with China, the US allies are also divided into two blocs, Rahman said. The American authorities themselves, along with Japan, Australia and the Republic of Korea, consider it necessary to restrain the development of China’s military potential, while many European countries are more economically dependent on Chinese business and do not want to abandon partnership relations with Beijing.
According to the FT columnist, in any case, the West will have to develop a common approach both in the situation with the supply of weapons to Ukraine and in the issue of economic cooperation with China to preserve foreign policy unity.
https://t.me/azmilitary11/34646
Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 4:59 utc | 194
Phariah (Pariah?), Mela, Deplorable and a few newbies trying to distract from the discussion on the first page. Thanks, but I prefer to listen to adults who disagree whilst respecting another debater. Narrative spewing kind of bounces off much like rain fall landing on Gore-Tex.
Posted by: Arcticman | Jan 24 2023 5:03 utc | 195
@Richard Steven Hack | Jan 24 2023 4:55 utc | 190
people here never learn.
What can you expect from the people you brand as almost illiterate?
Most Americans are almost illiterate. I see it all the time on the Net.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 19 2022 22:50 utc | 108
(Like Hack knows where readers come from in all cases.)
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 24 2023 5:08 utc | 196
Kyiv is being prepared for defense, hundreds of millions of dollars are now being pumped into the construction of fortifications and communications.
All our sources are sure that the Russians will not take Kyiv. This no longer makes sense. Based on reality, there are several options:
1. A long war with pulling the permanent reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the fields, implementing a creeping offensive.
2. A march to cut off part of Ukraine from Western countries, which will immediately disrupt the supply of weapons and ammunition, which in six months of the blockade will end at the blocked part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Personally, we are sure that at the moment the Ukrainian crisis is following the Syrian scenario, which means that Ukrainians will have to live in war, devastation and poverty for at least another 3-5-8 years. At the same time, constantly run from the military commissars, who will chase the peasants like they are “gold”. At some point, there will be a shortage of men and women will begin to be called. Many will say nonsense, well, whoever says so has not yet taken off his “rose-colored glasses”.
The situation in the Ukrainian crisis may change dramatically due to some extraordinary events, but so far they are not on the horizon.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 5:09 utc | 197
A common example of soft power manipulation in which Americans have invested billions of dollars over the years.
The Americans, through their foundations and NGOs, are raising the issue of transferring German Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Now massively went to download this topic in the media and society.
At the same time, no one arranges the same rallies and demonstrations in the United States and in the world demanding the transfer of Abrams.
Conclusion: the conductors of this entire tragic performance called the Ukrainian crisis, the Americans. They dictate the rules and set the pace. They said not to raise the topic with the Abrams, and everyone, like obedient “mongrels”, does not touch it. So they gave the go-ahead to “kick” the Germans and everyone ran.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 5:10 utc | 198
They quickly responded after the leak in telegrams and our layouts. As they want to convince the masses that the conflict is over, the guys decided.
This was already partially clear when Zelensky gave the go-ahead to the “request” of the Western lobby for reshuffles, in the morning we gave an insider about this and the role of the Head of the GUR Budanov in this game of “partners”.
Budanov fulfilled his mission, now you can roll back
The head of the President’s Office, Yermak, is trying to save Defense Minister Reznikov from resigning.
While they gave time and try to hush up the case.
They came up with an excuse that there was no corruption – this is a technical error.
This has already caused trolling of power in society.
It is interesting who will be made a “scapegoat” in the end and whether they will be able to agree with NABU and hush up the case that is already open there and where there are daddies and even the names of the highest ranks of the OP and SN who profited from it.
⚡️In the case of corruption in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, too many high-ranking officials are involved who were in the subject and received a share.
If the topic is not hushed up, but on the contrary, other purchases are raised, then the “string” may go to the “office” of the Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak.
Watching…
Posted by: Down South | Jan 24 2023 5:14 utc | 199