very relevant article from indian punchline
Europe has enemies within, enemies without

Posted by: james | Jan 23 2023 16:50 utc | 3

Made Official. Said out Loud. The war is real. No longer a hybrid. Negotiations to end it is not an option as prohibited in UKR law.
Russia and West on verge of ‘real war’ – Lavrov
The West has long aimed to destroy everything Russian, the FM has said

RT
The current situation in Ukraine shows that the conflict between Russia and the West can no longer be defined as a “hybrid war” but is instead approaching being a real one, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday. 
Speaking at a press conference following a meeting with his South African counterpart, Naledi Pandor, Lavrov also noted that this “almost real” war was something that the West “has been preparing for a long time against Russia.” 
The minister claimed that Western powers are seeking to destroy everything Russian, from the language to the culture that had existed in Ukraine for centuries, and even forbid people from speaking their native language. [.]

AND when diplomats are expelled
Tass:
Latvia to reduce diplomatic presence in Russia in solidarity with Estonia,
Russia has expelled Estonia’s ambassador.
AND Hungary has had enough of the sanctions. Livid is an apt descriptor. I will not be surprised if it exits the EU bloc.
Hungary to oppose EU’s anti-Russian nuclear sanctions — Foreign Minister
Peter Szijjarto noted that “the European Commission has, obviously, commenced the development of the 10th sanctions package”
https://tass.com/world/1565927

BUDAPEST, January 23. /TASS/. Hungary will not support any EU sanctions that would potentially limit cooperation with Russia in the nuclear field, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told reporters during a break at a meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in Brussels Monday.
“Hungary will not support any sanctions that in any way limit nuclear cooperation with Russia,” Szijjarto said.
The Minister noted that “the European Commission has, obviously, commenced the development of the 10th sanctions package.” However, Hungary warned that it will not support any proposals “if they include restrictions on cooperation with Russia in the nuclear area,” Szijjarto said.
“This would cause enormous damage to our country and violate its energy security,” he underscored.
“I made it clear that nuclear energy is crucial for Hungary’s power supply,” the Foreign Minister said, noting that the Paks Nuclear Power plant, which uses Russian nuclear fuel, provides half of the country’s energy supply.[.]

Three weeks into Q1 2023, the unusually warm winter is begining to feel like August. August 1939…Breakdown of diplomacy, war the extension of.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 23 2023 17:02 utc | 5

Translated:
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (23.01.2023)
💥 In the Kupyansk direction, artillery of the Western Military District inflicted fire on accumulations of the 14th and 92nd mechanized brigades of the AFU in the areas of Dvurechnaya, Berestovoye of the Kharkiv region and Novoselovskoye of the Luhansk People’s Republic. More than 40 Ukrainian servicemen and one vehicle were destroyed.
💥 In the Krasno-Limansky direction, artillery fire from the Central Military District and Airborne Troops defeated units of the 80th and 95th Airborne Assault Brigades of the AFU in the area of Serebryansky forestry. The enemy losses amounted to up to 70 servicemen, four armored fighting vehicles and two US-made AN/TPQ-37 and AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar stations.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, volunteer assault squads, with the fire support of operational and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of the Southern Military District, liberated the settlement of Krasnopolye in the Donetsk People’s Republic. During the day, more than 60 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, three vehicles, two Msta-B and D-30 howitzers, as well as a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station were destroyed in this area.
💥 In the Zaporizhzhia direction, up to 30 Ukrainian servicemen, three vehicles, and a Grad multiple rocket launcher were destroyed by Eastern Military District troops as a result of a complex fire attack on AFU units during the day.
💥 On the Dneprovsk direction, high-precision ground-based weapons hit a temporary deployment point of the 107th Reactive Artillery Brigade unit near the village of Marganets, Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. As a result of the strike, a launcher of the American HIMARS multiple rocket launcher together with the crew and two vehicles were destroyed at the uncovered firing position.
💥 Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery of groups of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the day hit 63 artillery units at firing positions, as well as manpower and military equipment in 97 areas.
◽️ Air defence assets shot down three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of Kreminna, Luhansk People’s Republic, and Zhovtneve, Kharkiv Oblast, during the day. Also 14 HIMARS rockets were intercepted in the areas of Donetsk city, Avdeevka, Pilipchatino settlements of Donetsk People’s Republic, as well as Chervonopopovka of Luhansk People’s Republic.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
376 aircraft,
203 helicopters,
2934(+4) unmanned aerial vehicles,
401 anti-aircraft missile systems,
7607(+6) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
987(+2) multiple rocket launchers,
3893(+6) field artillery guns and mortars, and
8153(+9) special military vehicle units.
Comment:
Unusually brief & terse RF MOD 24hr summary. This aligns considerably fewer reports & details therein, publicly available re RF Ops over past five days.
First MBLRS claimed destroyed in five days. A HIMARS, the crew and 2 vehicles destroyed. (Probable the specialist reload & support vehicles).
Minimal AFVs & Vehicles destroyed. Below average MBRLS/artillery/mortars destroyed.
Partly corroborated by indicators in other reports, likely AFU is carefully husbanding/hoarding it’s remaining Arms materiel along FEBA.
No Artillery ammunition dumps destroyed during period. Sustained Op tempo.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 23 2023 17:15 utc | 7

@ Likklemore | Jan 23 2023 17:02 utc | 5
that post by old microbiologist i referenced @ 2 was all about hungary and orban.. i found it fascinating and hadn’t read any of that before.. perhaps it is in line with your projection here too.. i don’t know..

Posted by: james | Jan 23 2023 17:18 utc | 9

The current situation in Ukraine shows that the conflict between Russia and the West can no longer be defined as a “hybrid war” but is instead approaching being a real one

How long does a direct NATO-Russia war needs to go nuclear? Days? Weeks? Months?
I somehow can imagine shooting Zircons at aircraft carriers for that long.

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 23 2023 17:26 utc | 11

Hungary may very soon* join the war.
*<= 5 months

Posted by: Stavrogin | Jan 23 2023 17:33 utc | 13

Who wants Leopard 2s and F-18s? No, hand over A-10s, F-22s, F-35s. Hell, give them anything. It won’t make any difference.
One wonders, will sundry visiting leaders’, past and present, be targeted in future? Or the railway stations, government buildings or wherever they decide to swagger. Probably not, as it would be a waste. Though if a Leyen/Michel/Euro-ninny were to be buried alive in a tunnel it might cause some to crack a smile. Seriously, is Uncle Sam in the habit of smiling on similar visits by anybody to any country he decides to bomb?

Posted by: DilNir | Jan 23 2023 17:52 utc | 15

Price Cap on Russian Oil.
to avoid a complete cut-off of EU countries. Ms. Yellen developed a workaround “ Russian oil and gas can be exported “if transformed” in another jurisdiction.
Russia to ban oil resales under Western price cap – media
[via RT]
Domestic oil exporters will reportedly have to make sure buyers don’t use the mechanism for resale

Russian exporters may soon be forbidden from selling oil to buyers under the Western price cap mechanism, the Kommersant news outlet reported, citing government sources.
According to the report, the Ministry of Energy has prepared a draft decree obliging Russian legal entities and individuals to avoid Western-mandated oil price limit provisions in their contracts with foreign buyers. They will also have to ensure that these buyers, including traders and agents, comply with this requirement for the further resale of Russian oil.[.]
The contracts will also have to pass inspection at the Federal Customs Service. If the agency finds any violations, in particular, any mention of the price cap, it may ban the export of the products specified in the contracts.

Price cap by the G7 idiots. Allows the collective west G7 misleading main street that price cap reduces Russia revenues.
Except Production Costs per Barrel of Oil :
Saudi Arabia, Iran: <$10, Iraq: <$12 Russia: <$20 Russia’s state budgets 2021-2024 forecast Oil Price @ $40.90 Poland knew the stats and was pushing for a price cap at $30/bl. Who is hurting who?

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 23 2023 17:54 utc | 17

@mauro | Jan 23 2023 17:33 utc | 12

“…has been subzero in northern England for most of the last three weeks.”
Here in northern Italy too…

-13.5C in Southern Norway today. So much for warm winter.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 23 2023 18:22 utc | 19

@ 10
@ 12
Notice my specific reference was August 1939. Any idea what was transpiring then?
Nevertheless, this winter has been unusually warm.
How a ‘totally insane’ warm spell is upending winter around the world
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/01/05/warm-winter-effects-europe-us/

Europe is experiencing a record-shattering warm spell, with meteorologists calling the current heat wave “totally insane” and “the most extreme event ever seen in European climatology.” On New Year’s Day, at least seven nations experienced their warmest January weather on record, with some cities in Spain and France sweating as temperatures rose to over 75 degrees Fahrenheit.
And despite a bone-chilling storm that passed over much of the United States around Christmas, temperatures remain higher than average in much of the South and New England. In New York City, visitors to Central Park got a taste of shorts weather as temperatures hit 66 degrees Wednesday.
An energy crisis averted in Europe.
[.]

It’s from Wapo. Ignore the tie into global warming. BBC also ran a piece on the unusually warm winter.
It’s the ENSO.
Skiers in Switzerland are on artificial snow. Here in the mid-Atlantic to North-East some ski hills are also using artificial snow.
I am north of the 45th and the snow plough guys are smiling over their winter contracts.
We are calling it, “Silly winter.”

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 23 2023 18:42 utc | 21

@Irish | Jan 23 2023 18:34 utc | 20

There’s fuckery afoot:
“The heat in Eastern Europe is unprecedented with more national records falling.
Over +20°C in the middle of January is simply extraordinary for this part of the world. Very impressive warmth surging through eastern Europe while western Europe chills.”

Reality check https://www.windy.com/50.450/30.520?temp,49.665,31.405,6

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 23 2023 18:51 utc | 23

Today Putin addressed the EAEU heads of state as Russia is the EAEU’s 2023 president. And what’s stressed is “harmonization” of the UNION in all areas, but the socio-economic most importantly. Recall Iran with its free trade deal is now a de facto EAEU member with India soon to follow. IMO, it’s paramount that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan cease their quarrel over the Fergana Valley and treat it along with Uzbekistan as common territory for the quarrel only serves to divert resources, generate animosity instead of solidarity and stifle greatly needed development. Yes, that’s easy to write yet hard to implement after decades of strife caused by Stalin who formed the borders there. Putin is Gung-ho as this excerpt suggests:

Our close integration has become a worthy response to such global problems exacerbated by the pandemic and the application of illegitimate sanctions by a number of countries, like poverty, climate change, scarcity of resources, including the most important ones – food, water, energy. Obviously, the Union has everything. opportunities to become one of the most powerful, independent, self-sufficient poles of the emerging multipolar world, to be the center of attraction for all independent states that share our values and seek to cooperate with the EAEU.
Of course we will do everything possible to further deepen integration at all directions – in the political, economic, industrial, financial and technological spheres. In this We consider it expedient to jointly assess the implementation of the existing ones “Strategic directions for the development of Eurasian economic integration until 2025” and this year to start preparing new ones long-term planning documents that will define the main vectors integration cooperation for the period up to 2030 and 2045.
Obviously that one of the most important strategic priorities of joint work should be to develop the technological potential of the EAEU member countries, to achieve genuine independence and self-sufficiency in this area. We propose to join forces in the development and implementation of advanced scientific and technical solutions in leading sectors economics, such as the automotive and chemical industries, transport mechanical engineering, microelectronics, aircraft construction, shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, digital ecosystems, alternative energy, agricultural engineering, biotechnology and seed production.
Likewise on the agenda is the intensification of cooperation in the field of digital transformation. Thus, in particular, the launch of the Integrated Information System of the Eurasian Economic Community and supranational systems for monitoring the circulation of products will make it possible to identify and remove unsafe and low-quality goods from the Union market. It is necessary accelerate the process of harmonized introduction of e-legal in the Member States of the Union significant document flow, providing legal and technological conditions for mutual recognition of such documents. It is important that digital technologies and solutions in the field of economic activity are introduced in all EAEU countries on the basis of common principles and approaches, which it is advisable to consolidate separately an act of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council.

As I’ve mentioned before, Putin’s vision is to build a different type of Soviet Union that was previously always possible but never put into practice primarily because of political corruption generated by the age-old habits of elites. Most of those people have now passed from the scene and the newer generation seems to have learned what to do and what not to do. We shall see how well the lessons were learned over the next several years. IMO, a supranational form of nationalism formed around the idea of Eurasia needs to be promoted so the smaller nations won’t feel being overshadowed by Russia, India and China. At the same time, there are examples of what not to do provided by the EU that need to be heeded, one of which Putin seems well aware of and that’s to avoid forming a political union that suppresses the sovereignty of Union members.
As suggested, a merger between ASEAN and EAEU sees likely as does one between SCO and ASEAN, which will join most of Eurasia together. And then there’s Africa, which will be another comment.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 19:00 utc | 25

Over +20°C in the middle of January is simply extraordinary for this part of the world.
@ Irish | Jan 23 2023 18:34 utc | 20
Andrej Flis, at Severe Weather Europe, has become my favorite long-term weather forecaster — even though his recent prediction of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in 2023 was just retracted:
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-stratospheric-warming-event-polar-vortex-january-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/
Flis discusses how the Northern Hemisphere’s polar vortex is currently squeezed (with splendid explanatory graphics). Though severely weakened, this winter’s PV is contracting enough to stay intact, though displaced and bent like a kidney bean over the pole. Extraordinary, possibly unprecedented stratospheric warmth is forecast for Siberia this February. Should it happen, we’ll find out what that means.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 23 2023 19:08 utc | 27

current weather Looks like cold air from the north is currently blocked from moving into portions of Europe. Not sure how persistent the current pattern will be.
@upsetter | Jan 23 2023 16:37 utc | 1
Macgregor thinks offensive will start within a week, during dark of moon. Start with EW attack against surveillance assets and gps, then missile strikes, then force movements. We will see. Minimal release of official info reported by Outraged above may indicate something is afoot.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 23 2023 19:22 utc | 29

@ Greg Galloway | Jan 23 2023 18:20 utc | 18
When you see Hungary quit NATO and/or EU, or if its army enters Transcarpathia, expect Russia to start shooting hypersonic missiles at NATO target within mere hours …
Orban and ruling Hungarians are making smart war-avoiding moves, although them are pretty much christian right-wingers. Poland is the same, but worse with the tendency going Polish nationalistic to the core and all in with UK and NATO, but asking the territories – Polish in Ukraine have all the rights as Ukrainians though thru some obscure agreement. So stupid and deadly.
UK and the other kingdoms, probably even more inclined towards the far-right. Germany and France are weaselling through, being double faced ergo, far-right politics, but how do you explain that to their average citizen? Anarchy, in short.
What better time for Europe to reshuffle its borders in a series of blatant land grabs?
Fog hangs over it for sure, symbolically and practically, so no stand off weapons yet.
RF will let everybody know before and if anything happens. It is a long way to the war planned, but might be shortened if need is to prevent global catastrophically enhanced event.
So it seems.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 23 2023 19:23 utc | 31

Barflies talking about a comment that I missed from Old Microbiologist make me want to go and look for it.
I remember a series of comments written under such a handle 3/12/2020 on Saker’s site that was so fascinating I bookmarked it.

Posted by: chunga | Jan 23 2023 19:34 utc | 33

James – Thanks
All – I do not want to give the impression I dislike Hungary. We love it here and the people are fantastic. But, like every country there are some things not all that great. On the whole though, since Orban goit his second chance things have dramatically improved. He added a 27% VAT which was used to pay off both the IMF and World Bank loans getting the US off our backs completely. He has arranged a separate supply of Russian natural gas through Turkstream into Serbia. He has renewd trade with Russia and is in the process of adding 2 more nuclear power plants curteousy of Russian low interest loans. He is building the largest EV battery factory in the world and we already manufacture a lot of autos including VW/Audi, Suzuki, and Mercedes. I have seenin my 13 years here things get better for everyone. The cars are newer and there is a lot of construction going on which is a good indication that there is excess capital being used wisely. I shop early at Aldi in our smallish (but very wealthy town) and it is packed with workers picking up their day’s food before work. Most are Ukrainians, Romanians, or Serbians which I take to mean the pay is better here and jobs are available. There is zero unemployment and in fact more jobs than people so many work 2 jobs. Crime is nearly zero as well. So, to me remaining loyal to your societal norms and preventing immigrants to dilute your population seems like a very good thing. There is no graffiti and everyone respects everyone here. Everyone, no matter who, always gets everyone coming and going. They still say “kiss your hand” to the women which would be an insult in the US. I get greeted with “service” as I am a Doctor (Ph.D.) which is a sign of respect. All the streets are named after poets, writers, or political heroes. We even have a music school here for gifted students as well as a Handball school (Team Handball and water polo are big here). The children get sailing classes for free that live in proximity to Lake Balaton and we have world-class sailors and many gold medals.
What Orab is doing is trying to take the side of “State’s Rights” and prevent the EU from becoming the United States of Europe. More or less he is alone in this. He also takes steps to ensure that Hungarians have a future and don’t get hammered by the insane anti-Russian sanctions.
Miitarily, they only have 10k soldiers, sailors, and airmen. They have zero tanks or APCs, 6 Grippen jets, and 4 helicopters. The navy has 1 old WWII minesweeper on the Duna River. They are no military threat to anyone.

Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Jan 23 2023 19:37 utc | 35

Proper link for 34.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 19:39 utc | 37

Blitzkrieg (def. update):
Mach 9 or 10,734 kilometers/hr.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jan 23 2023 19:42 utc | 39

So, re: all this excellent weather talk,
to whose advantage is it then that Ukraine is/be warmer than usual up until now (looks like a cold front coming in)?
and/or to whose advantage is it that Ukraine is about to freeze up again (maybe)?

Posted by: Irish | Jan 23 2023 19:47 utc | 41

TL&DR Time approaching to unleash the Dogs of War ? RF has overwhelming conventional forces, should it decide to execute …
As expected, the 58th Combined Arms Army, advancing in the Southern Front, has used Reconnaissance in Force, Probing & Fixing attacks to determine the precise positions of the AFU units, especially strongpoints, weaknesses and the comms/flank responsibility/co-ordination gaps between adjacent units. 58th has then pinned AFU in its positions by ‘holding on to its belt’ at close quarters, whilst using its overwhelming indirect & direct Fire Support to rapidly attrit pinned defenders who have no opportunity to attempt retreat or withdraw whilst under sustained barrages/direct fires. The remnants once sufficiently weakened & isolated are, overrun. Rinse & Repeat. These tactics combined with overwhelming comparative manpower & combat power minimizes RF casualties whilst maintaining constant pressure and steady advance.
AFU has no effective response to this Situ.
RF has also used artillery, actual gun howitzers, in direct fire mode, lowered barrels at ranges of 200-300m. Point blank. This indicates that RF is confident in safely using valuable assets this way to reduce casualties in targeted assault and accelerate, by precise fire, rapid destruction of key entrenchments.
As posted previously, after highly probably reinforcing existing BTGs with 2x Motor Rifle (Mechanized Infantry) Companies (Coy) each, mobilized active reservists & volunteers, even after allocating ~150,000 to fulfill FEBA rear support/service & other tasks that had further reduced BTGs infantry manpower, 3 x RF Army (~4 Divisions+) formations would likely be formed.
What is identified as ‘the’ 58th Combined Arms Army is one of the three Armies (it’s responsibilities in Southern Military District fulfilled by Mobilization, not abandoned). This means two more, possibly even three, Combined Arms Armies are forward deployed and held in ready reserve. Given the example of 58th, this would suggest one of the extant Armies from each of the Central & Eastern Military Districts would be the basis of these newly formed/merged formations. Given the 58th in the South, almost certain one each deployed in the East of FEBA (Center) & in the North (Belarus) (Possible 4th ?)
When the opportunity presents these additional Armies will be committed, as for the 58th, whilst existing extant RF formations remain engaged, pressing AFU, in contact at the FEBA.
Note, the 58th Army & other two (3?) are formed and operating at the Division & Army level as formations & re combat & maneuver. No more BTGs & ad hoc occasional Brigades.
The AFU when it actually existed was limited to Brigade Ops, as mentioned previously, is no longer patently obviously a functional combat effective force. Lost combined arms maneuver capability & cohesion, combat effectiveness, as an Army ~6 months ago. Given mass KIA, & MIA that rapidly convert(~30-60%) to KIA given delayed & inadequate medical support, even timely battlefield first-Aid & trauma support, along with Brigades suffering ~70%+ casualties before being withdrawn from the line & reconstituted with untrained Volksturm forced conscripts, again & again, up to 7 times over ?
Such units can function minimally for a time in static, heavily entrenched positions, yet have little capability to survive engagement with Division/Army sized, fully capable & equipped combined arms formations once forced into maneuver as opposed to static warfare. This is also the case for AFU units entrenched elsewhere all along the FEBA once their flanks are threatened or exposed by breakthrough. The defensive lines to fall back upon get ever weaker & less developed as compared to current & previous, overwhelmed/overrun, even more quickly.
Then there is only open ground facing three(4?) Combined Arms Maneuver Armies on the prowl, as the rest of RF at the current FEBA reform, consolidate & form up and follow on as a second echelon.
The current War in Ukraine for the OUN-B Nazi proxies of Empire is lost. Yet …
NATO has been thoroughly outed as much a Paper Tiger militarily as USA now. The parlous state of NATO’s militaries has been exposed. Where did that US/NATO ~$2Trillion/year combined go to over the previous three decades ? Well, looking back, NATO had no prospects of successful contestation at the height of the Cold War, it is not even close now, in 2023.
The Coalition of the ‘Rabid Russo-phobic Nine’ (Plus ‘We’ve got your back US’) seem to have no comprehension of this situ. Or do they, being led by UK/US ?
Again, during the height of the Cold War the Baltic States & Poland, absolute best case, would be overrun, annihilated, in at most 48hours if general war broke out. The situ now at least the same, highly probably far worse. Obviously US/UK & the rest do not appear concerned too much re prodding the Bear, as their territories would not be the ground the battles would be fought over if the ‘Rabid Nine’ became too ‘willing’. Much hubris & too clever by half.
Given 80% of NATO, yet especially Turkey & now Hungary, have all but declared no further support for the Ukraine War, if the ‘Rabid Nine’ continue to escalate & provoke, it is not unlikely that RF may decide it’s time to revise Poland/Baltic States status post ’45, and provide an object lesson for Finland & Sweden, whilst dramatically reducing the existential risk of Aegis Ashore & Tomahawk nuclear tipped cruise missiles launched from Poland/Baltic States. ~5min flight time.
Majority of NATO members have demonstrated reluctant, modest actual commitment to the US instigated and stage managed year old Ukraine conflict … would they risk ALL for Poland & the Baltics, aggressively overreaching now ?
Has such demonstration of commitment occurred so far, will they risk a roll of the dice, whilst the odds are stacked against them ?
Acta non verba!
RF has been clearly stating recently if RF territory is seized (Donbass/Crimea) it is War, ultimately up to including nuclear weapons if conventional military was unable to regain such territories re RF constitutional obligations.
Continual provocations & stepped escalations against RF whilst disingenuously asserting non-belligerence whilst calling for more War with Russia, funding & aggressively arming & re-arming the belligerent, Ukraine, appear to wearing very thin indeed.
The threat from NATO is truly now existential given plans to invest significantly in NATOs militaries over coming years to address it’s parlous state. To what purpose ? Another go, a Take II re a War to destroy & dismember Russia ?
If so, ’tis best be dealt with now, rather than risk the waning of the RFs current comparative advantage & active deployed & alert forces status re a currently unprepared Poland/Baltics, & wider weak NATO that has now openly committed itself to actively prepare for future War.
Poland via US, alone, intends to deploy a force of 1,000 Abrams MBTs and a fleet of F-16s.
RF has arms & materiel pre-positioned, & activated & tested secure supply lines, on the ground, on the continent, not the other side of the Atlantic.
In any case, excluding forces extant along the FEBA & in Theater, & three new Armies (4?) … ~85% of RF regular standing formations have yet to be committed … along with ~62,000+ Belarus forces:
1st Guards Tank Army,
2nd Guards Combined Arms Army,
5th & 6th Combined Arms Armies,
8th & 20th Guards Combined Arms Armies,
29th/35th/36th/41st/49th Combined Arms Armies,
Special Operation Forces (SSO),
810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade,
40th/61st/155th Naval Infantry Brigades,
7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division,
76th/98th/106th Guards Air Assault Divisions,
45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade,
11th/31st/83rd Guards Air Assault Brigades,
2nd & 10th Spetsnaz Brigades, and
3rd & 22nd Guards Spetsnaz Brigades …
Hm, wonder what the elite First Guards Tank Army is up to lately ? A winter vacation in Belarus, a short distance from Poland & the Baltics, perhaps ?
If NATO/EU does not step back, cease continual escalation, false non-belligerency whilst evermore shrill war rhetoric and all but on the battlefield, and now ‘re-armament’, Girding for future War ?
RF may calculate the time has come to again throw the first punch, perceiving a wider War is coming regardless, & pre-empt again, this time in Poland & the Baltics.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 23 2023 19:54 utc | 43

Best case scenario: Russia keeps slowly taking territory, rebuilding most everything it takes. The US gets bored with the conflict, declares victory, and moves on.
The war moves on to the economic front, where we fight over who can cause the most prosperity in Latin American and African nations.
Might as well dream big 🙂

Posted by: Woke American | Jan 23 2023 20:02 utc | 45

Not the Onion.
France is going through an existential crisis. The gas prices are too much to pay to enable Baguettes to be produced. Bakers are going Bankrupt in droves. (as told to me by a French political “activist” today)
One of the things that make a country doubt the value of it’s leadership. Reality hurts the pomp of politicians. More than a food, a symbol.
All we need now is madame Macron to say “let them eat brioche” (cake) and history will repeat itself.
***
GEN Laura J. Richardson, The General in charge of USSOUTHCOM has declared that they are trying to get South American countries that still have Soviet tanks, to supply them to Ukraine in “exchange” for Abrams. 9 countries including Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba (???) Weird !
***
MI5 or 6 has “released” a Russian plan (with maps) to hit ALL the bridges in Ukraine at once. At least they know where the bridges are.
*
Also according to “sources” the Ukies are hiding ammunition and weapons around and inside the remaining Ukrainian Nuclear plants.
*
“It is reported that the Russian Armed Forces landed in boats last night west of Kamenskoye in the rear of the nationalists. And in a day they liberated Kamianske south of Zaporozhye”
https://twitter.com/vicktop555/status/1617569481773006871/photo/3
**
All in a day’s work.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 23 2023 20:02 utc | 47

Estonia plans to close the Gulf of Finland for russia, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu says.
Estonia is planning to introduce a coastal “contiguous zone” in the Gulf of Finland, which will cut off russian shipping and allow the country to inspect russian warships and civilian vessels.
However this is considered international waters and could start a war. One that Article 5 wouldn’t protect the tiny Baltic nation from.
https://t.me/thisistotallynotacallforhelp/15790
Someone should tell Estonia, if they try to start a war by trying to blockade international waters with mines or whatever means, it’s on them.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 23 2023 20:05 utc | 49

unimperator | Jan 23 2023 20:05 utc | 49
Estonia has also given ALL of it’s artillery to Ukraine.
Non compos mentis or “nuts”..

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 23 2023 20:12 utc | 51

@ Outraged | Jan 23 2023 19:54 utc | 43
RF has been clearly stating recently if RF territory is seized (Donbass/Crimea) it is War, ultimately up to including nuclear weapons if conventional military was unable to regain such territories re RF constitutional obligations.
Every attempt to enter Ukraine by NATO troops will be a deliberately provoking high jump over any red line.
NATO made Ukraine win Crimea for them. That. Never. Happens.
They deserve to lose badly as they failed do the right thing, but tried everything else, instead.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 23 2023 20:16 utc | 53

@ Irish | Jan 23 2023 19:39 utc | 38
Poland, leading the Coalition of the ‘Rabid Nine’, on US/UK behalf, with the Tank & Mech Brigades they have declared they will give to Ukraine, the last of their ex-Soviet arms, unilaterally … yet crewed by Poles & supported by Polish regulars, under some inane R2P threatened Galician OUN-B Nazi civilians, in fear of another imagined Bucha?

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 23 2023 20:23 utc | 55

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 23 2023 19:54 utc | 43
Thanks for the info compilation. Watched a couple of videos on Zaporizhe front. It seems there’s no hurry in advancing. UAF doesn’t have any solid defensive lines (as in continuous concreted bunkers, like Maginot line). They take their time pinpointing and obliterating all separate and isolated concrete fortifications, then moving the front forward.
I really doubt UAF can do anything to stop them, even with the supposed new Nato APCs. They are setting Zap city as fortification, but it isn’t compulsory to get stuck in urban combat there, at this time.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 23 2023 20:28 utc | 57

” I don’t think the thaw will help Ukraine, Russia has been talking up the problems but I think it’s partly misdirection.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 23 2023 20:25 utc | 56 ”
However, NATO is not capable of ” talking up their problems ” for mis-direction purposes ?

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 23 2023 20:32 utc | 59

“A merger between EAEU and ASEAN” damn, what a stupid idea. South Asia isn’t even part of the Eurasian landmass, there has never been even the slightest hint of this” merger” ( and btw, what would that even have do with any “Soviet Union” that Putin supposedly want to create ?). This is what you get when you type without thinking at all. There will be no “Eur(south)asia”. also, the idea of creating “nationalism” by using economic unions is doomed to fail, differences between nations (languages, cultures etc…) cannot be overcome this way, that was an awful idea. The only “Eurasia” as a unity/country possible would unite only Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan which are the closest post soviet republics. Neither Uzbekistan ( which threatened to cut relations with Belarus after Lukashenko suggested it) nor Turkmenistan/ Azerbaijan would want to be in it.

Posted by: Phariah | Jan 23 2023 20:40 utc | 61

Irish | Jan 23 2023 20:17 utc | 54
“War is Economics is what I think Orwell meant.
Some pigs are fatter than others, and deserve to be de- or re-constructed first by obese corporations? yeuuck
Posted by: Irish | Jan 23 2023 20:17 utc | 54

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 23 2023 20:43 utc | 63

@Opport Knocks | Jan 23 2023 20:55 utc | 64
Verified?
If so:
Rats fleeing the ship? Perhaps worried about what the next week will bring…

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 23 2023 20:58 utc | 65

Orban is secure and faces little risk in the next election unless something really bad happens. I think he is predicting the downfall of the leaders of the EU Commission and may get some relief after the leaders of most EU countries either get replaced internally by the voters or something worse. Orban is at high risk of assassination by the US though. The same for Vuvic and Erdogan. The neocon rules mandate you are either with us or against us and there are no limits to what the US will try against perceived enemies. Our new President of Hungary is equal to the task and I am delighted to see her in this position.
On the whole people are satisfied enough. There are no viable alternatives. The US poured a ton of money to get Marki Zoy elected and he wasn’t even re-elected in his own town as mayor. He was a WEF young leader educated at Columbia so basically an American.

Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Jan 23 2023 20:59 utc | 67

From RT opinion piece on Wagner group ‘terrorist’ designation:
Y. Prigozhin “…The Wagner PMC has not committed any crimes. Others spend their days trying to pin various crimes on us in different parts of the world. But, unlike America’s paramilitary forces, the Wagner PMC eliminates only enemies of peace and commits no crimes. Of course, if you employ double standards, you can dig up dirt on anyone. …
… Most world powers try not to clash with America. Those regimes that do fight back are usually declared anti-democratic, then criminal, and then terrorist. PMC Wagner is not a country or a regime; rather it is a young and unbridled force, which is why it’s so feared by the Americans. They tried to destroy this force at Deir ez-Zor [Syria] in 2018, but it has recovered its spirit and is able to look into the eyes of the personification of global evil without fear.
It is very important to note that we have never behaved aggressively towards the Americans, but, nevertheless, we have not accepted rudeness from them. On more than one occasion, we have caught armed groups and American intelligence officers who tried to harm the Wagner PMC and organized assassination attempts. Each time we kicked their asses and let them go in peace (there is plenty of video footage), and, before sending them home, we fed them lunch and dinner.
That’s why the Americans are perplexed: we don’t touch them, but we also don’t let them push us around. That’s why they are so upset. We don’t want what’s theirs, but we won’t give up what’s ours. Oh, man, you really hit a nerve. I think I’ve answered in full.”

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 23 2023 21:14 utc | 69

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 19:00 utc | 25 One of the most nonsensical/ridiculous comments I,ve ever seen on this site.

Posted by: Phariah | Jan 23 2023 21:15 utc | 71

Is there some competition going on “who will start war with Russia next” we don’t know about? Has Estonia some insider information?

Posted by: Abe | Jan 23 2023 21:19 utc | 73

@Abe | Jan 23 2023 21:19 utc | 73
The ‘Baltic Tigers’ are most eager for their leash holder to fight the Bear on their behalf and compete to see who will take credit for lighting the match. Their incessant mewing is deemed useful I guess.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 23 2023 21:25 utc | 75

Smells like a civil war or infighting in Ukraine. Something strange is happening, some politicians appear to want to flee the sinking ship and have resigned en masse, but the security apparatus doesn’t want to allow anyone to go.
Perhaps they get cleaned up by the morning, perhaps it explodes into chaosm

Posted by: Boo | Jan 23 2023 21:28 utc | 77

@ Dalit | Jan 23 2023 20:59 utc | 66
RF MOD doesn’t do nor interested in body count reports. They only report confirmed KIA at the FEBA, not throughout Theater. They don’t count vehicle/platform crews, etc, with rare exceptions. They don’t report KIA unless related to a selected reported engagement Platoon sized or above, excepting SF/Recon/DRG small teams. The clear intent is descriptive/informative, not bean-counter precision. Hence they are throughout deliberately & significantly under-reporting AFUs casualties from Day 1. Both RF & AFU have political & strategic military reasons for downplaying AFU’s actual casualties, Theater wide, daily & in toto.
@ Phariah | Jan 23 2023 21:15 utc | 71
An illiterate troll. 🙁

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 23 2023 21:30 utc | 79

@ Old Microbiologist | Jan 23 2023 20:59 utc | 67
.There are no viable alternatives.
If people are happy, they do not need an alternative, unless you are the rest of EU.
I agree that Hungary in last 15 years is getting stronger and things are going on better.
But I also remember the hype where young foreigners were buying amazing and big apartments
in Budapest for 50.000 Deutsche Mark in early 90’s. Balaton villas went for VW Golf Cabrio in an exchange. Like in all “liberated” East European countries.
So yes, life is good near Balaton where it has been for many decades cool tourist attraction, developed area, but having travelled a bit around myself it gets rather shabby towards Ukraine. I think that rurally is a bit different, so maybe with this goes the tolerance, however it gets better now as they can sell and trade wonders with Ukraine and some crumbs are still there.
Hungary is a big player in pretty influential regions in South-Central Europe all the way to Greece. Under Orban it got rapidly developed, he brought quite some money in his country. He learned from the history that Ceaucescu also didn’t leave Romania indebted.
On the sunny side, I really think that Hungarians are paying back some old debt to Austrians sticking up for common oil and gas prices. Hey, Austro-Hungarian Empire, sounds familiar.
I think you are right that maybe neutrality is also a choice. That means leaving NATO. If Orban manages to slip out of this towards neutral position he would be Tatar Orban the Hun king for his people.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 23 2023 21:43 utc | 81

” A question that’s dogged me ever since Russia’s December 2021 security proposals remains: What will Russia do when the Outlaw US Empire/NATO say no as will surely be done to removing their missiles from Poland and Romania?
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 21:38 utc | 80 ”
Not a damn thing. Russia wont even touch a single Khazarian plane out of fear of the US.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 23 2023 21:48 utc | 83

There is an interesting article from Kiev Independent which cannot be labeled as pro-Russian where loss of Soledar and dangers to Bakhmut are acknowledged.
https://kyivindependent.com/national/with-the-loss-of-soledar-ukrainian-positions-in-bakhmut-jeopardized

Posted by: Curious Russian | Jan 23 2023 21:49 utc | 85

unimperator@49
Before even reading the bit of text, I commented to myself: “That’s an act of war”. Hopefully, for the sake of the people of Estonia is that one of their “elder brothers” lets their leaders know that its a no-go action and that Big Brother and the Holding Company does not have their backs.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 23 2023 21:55 utc | 87

aristodemos @76–
Very inventive solution. But IMO, solving Ukraine is mcu easier than the further problem I wrote @80. Do please think on that one too.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 21:57 utc | 89

whirlX @53
Certainly the warning also includes Kalingrad in former East Prussia, that little wedge of Russian cheesecake between Lithuania and the Polaks.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 23 2023 22:01 utc | 91

” I know many secrets that are very upsetting for the Americans. I have witnesses who remember how CIA officials trained Osama Bin Laden and brought bags of money and weapons to ISIS in Syria and other countries. They were preparing outlaws and terrorists all over the world so that there would be trouble everywhere – in Europe, Africa, Asia, South America. ” – Yevgeny Prigozhin
I guess hes going to sit on them then, instead of giving this crucial evidence to the world ? Putin must know even more yet he also stays silent. The question is why ?
https://www.rt.com/news/570374-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-and-us/

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 23 2023 22:07 utc | 93

knighthawk | Jan 23 2023 21:30 utc | 78
>………”banned the travel of civil servants, security officials and deputies abroad.”
Even to Israel?
What about dual citizenship/passports?
karlof1 | Jan 23 2023 21:38 utc | 80
The Barking Ba.tic problem.
Solution: Demographics. Each country is barely the population size of modern city.
Post sloSMO, should Russia restrict all trade to the 3 and restrict visas to only Russian descendants.
As Russia becomes stronger economically, wage-age cohorts will want access.
Nope. Let them clean toilets in UK or Abu Dhabi
The Barking Baltics already have a severe demographic problem. Just let them wither and die.
Poland is a perennial problem. Even when wiped from the map entirely, it still creates chaos. Solution. Allow Germany to take a sizeable chunk.
That’ll be Germany’s punishment for its perfidy.
Carve a wider Kaliningrad coriander through both Poland and Lithuanian.
And use a page from the U$ playbook… have them divided over an internal issue and let them fight like pit bulls in a cage.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 23 2023 22:12 utc | 95

can anyone confirm that earlier today
EU foreign ministers approve €500 million new package of military aid to Ukraine” – Reuters.

Posted by: Jo | Jan 23 2023 22:21 utc | 97

More Ghosts of KievAshraf Ghani
Ukraine’s deputy infrastructure minister, Vasyl Lozinskyi, has been detained and dismissed from his post for allegedly stealing $400,000 (£320,000) intended for purchasing aid, including generators, according to Ukraine’s state anti-corruption detectives and prosecutors.
After the news emerged, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, vowed that the old ways of corruption would not return to Ukraine.
Pavlo Halimon, deputy head of Zelenskiy’s party – named after his TV show, Servant of the People – was also dismissed on Monday because of corruption allegations, which he has not responded to. Ukrainian news site Ukrainska Pravda published an investigation on Monday morning into his purchase of a Kyiv property for more

Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 23 2023 22:23 utc | 99