Ukraine Open Thread 2023-20
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on January 22, 2023 at 13:00 UTC | Permalink
next page »I've been watching "Best In Hell" (I usually only watch movies while on the treadmill every morning so I'm only an hour into it after 2 days). So far it is an excellent movie with a very high degree of realism and even handedness.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 22 2023 13:41 utc | 2
Translated:
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (22.01.2023)◽️ In the Kupyansk direction, assault and army aviation and artillery of the Western Military District inflicted a fire attack on the accumulation of live forces of the units of the 14th and 92nd mechanized brigades of the AFU in the areas of Dvurechnaya, Hryanikovka of the Kharkiv region, as well as Novoselovskoye and the northern edge of Stelmakhovka of the Luhansk People's Republic.
💥 Over 50 Ukrainian servicemen, a vehicle and a pickup truck were destroyed.
◽️ In the Krasno-Limansky direction, strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation, artillery fire of the Central Military District and Airborne Troops defeated units of the 92nd mechanized brigade of the AFU near the settlement of Stelmakhovka, The 95th, 80th Airborne Assault Brigades of the AFU and the 125th Territorial Defense Brigade in the areas of Chervona Dibrova of the Lugansk People's Republic, Serebryanskoe Lesnichestvo and Yampolovka settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.
💥 Over 80 Ukrainian soldiers, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles and a pickup truck were destroyed in this direction during the day. Two US-made AN/TPQ-48 and AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar stations were destroyed in the areas of Vishneve of the Donetsk People's Republic and Nevskoye of the Lugansk People's Republic.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, units of the Southern Military District and volunteer assault detachments continued their successful offensive actions and inflicted fire on AFU units in the areas of Razdolovka, Blagodatnoye, Krasnopolye and Severnoye settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic. In addition, a warehouse of AFU artillery ammunition was destroyed near Antonovka settlement of Donetsk People's Republic.
💥 More than 80 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, two vehicles, as well as a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in this direction during the day.
◽️ In the Zaporizhzhya direction, units of the Eastern Military District took more advantageous lines and positions during the offensive.
💥 During the day, up to 85 Ukrainian servicemen, an infantry fighting vehicle, two armored fighting vehicles, a pickup truck, two D-20 howitzers near the settlements of Stepnogorsk, Zaporizhia region and Prechistovka, Donetsk People's Republic, as well as a D-30 howitzer near the settlement of Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhia region were destroyed in this direction. In addition, a warehouse of AFU artillery ammunition was destroyed near Malinovka, Zaporizhia region.
◽️ In the Kherson direction near the village of Sadovoye, Kherson region, a US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station was destroyed.
💥 Operational-tactical aviation, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit the command post of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU near the settlement of Lezhino, Zaporozhye region, as well as 74 AFU artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 119 areas.
💥 Russian air defense assets in the area of Antonovka settlement of Donetsk People's Republic shot down an Su-25 aircraft of Ukrainian air forces. Also during the day, nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Zmievka, Vladimirovka, Krasnorechenskoye, Yagodnoye settlements of Luhansk People's Republic, Urozhaynoye, Novomayorske of Donetsk People's Republic, Priyutnoye of Zaporozhye region and Ochakovskoye of Kherson region. Two US-made HIMARS rockets were intercepted near Rabotino and Molochansk settlements of Zaporizhia region.
◽️ In addition, an American anti-radar missile "HARM" was intercepted near the settlement of Stepnogorsk, Zaporizhzhia region.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
376(+1) aircraft,
203 helicopters,
2,931(+9) unmanned aerial vehicles,
401 anti-aircraft missile systems,
7,601(+12) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
985 multiple rocket launchers,
3,887(+4) field artillery guns and mortars, and
8,144(+16) pieces of special military vehicles.
Comment:
Again, no MBLRS claimed destroyed, for over four days now. Approximate average AFVs & Vehicles destroyed.
Minimal artillery/mortars destroyed.
Diminishing quantity remaining MBLRS ? Artillery/Mortars ? Withdrawn/hoarded/held in reserve ? MBRLS & Artillery/Mortars ammunition available to fire ?
Return to higher number of locs targeted. Increased Op tempo.
Artillery ammunition dumps destroyed in two separate locs. Has now become a recurring daily event. AFU indirect fire assets & ammo stores continue to be targeted as high priority tasking.
I hope Germany stick to their guns (no pun intended and do the sensible thing:
"Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine that threaten Russian territories will lead to a "global catastrophe", a close ally of Vladimir Putin has warned.
Vyacheslav Volodin said such action would also make arguments against using weapons of mass destruction untenable.
In a post on the messaging app Telegram, the speaker of the Duma - Russia's lower house of parliament – warned that the United States and NATO's support of Ukraine is leading the world to a "terrible war".
"If Washington and NATO countries supply weapons that will be used to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories, as they threaten, this will lead to retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons," Mr Volodin wrote.
"Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable."
(Sly news)
I don't read Russian so cannot say what was posted on the telegram.(
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 22 2023 14:01 utc | 4
Thank you for the sitrep Outraged. much appreciated.
Posted by: migueljose | Jan 22 2023 14:03 utc | 5
In the Zaporizhzhya direction, two servicemen who served in what is considered an elite unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defected to the side of Russia. This was reported to TASS (https://t.me/tass_agency/177614) by the local administration of the region.
"Two Ukrainian servicemen today crossed over to our side in the Zaporozhye direction. These soldiers are from an elite unit; they have already begun to share important information with our side," the interlocutor of the agency said.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/17257
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2023 14:06 utc | 6
Another vote for the movie "Best in Hell" - absolutely amazing & realistic and likely as close as one can come to what is actually taking place in Donbass or any modern war...
I'd like to know how the technical details of how such a movie can be made. CGI is one thing, but not enough to explain the realism.
Posted by: Simplicius | Jan 22 2023 14:10 utc | 7
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 22 2023 13:39 utc | 1
Pavlograd, east of Dnepropetrovsk might be one target (eventually). It's a big rail junction leading to Donbass. Then there's only one rail junction at Lozova, NE of Pavlograd, and the connection from Kharkov to Izyum. There's less rail connections, so the remaining 1 or 2 junctions could be put out of commission with other means. Depends on the plan of course, whether they would first like to wait that ukie commits some of those new reinforcements into Donbass by rail, and only then cut them off. The new shiny APCs out of gas and ammunition.
They might just blow up the bridges at Zaporizhe, isolate and screen it and the garrison in it, and thwart any meaningful ukie attempt to counter from that direction or across Dnepr in general.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2023 14:23 utc | 8
I hope a lot of European countries will send their Leo2 to Ukraine - as much as they can.
And then we will watch what will happen.
Ukraine got over 400 tanks already - captured some more 100s from the Russians so far (they said)
Burned the tens of 100s they had to start with.How long it will take to form a proper tank Brigade out of Leo2? - Some weeks? - Some months?
Are there enough expierineced tank crews left to train them or will they have to take rookies?
-
Time is not on Ukrainians side here.
It never was.Ukraine will also need to form up some mechanized infatry brigades - how long will that take?
And then what?
Will they be used for an offensive?
Where to?
Mariupol?
Don't you think Russia did not prepare?
You even mocked their Dragon teeths lines...And you will also need proper air cover AND a shit load of artillery - how is the ammo production going in the West?
Have we ammo for a "Red Army" battle?
For how long?
3 days - 3 weeks?
You guys lost it completely.Lets say NATO can bring up 400 tanks - 600 more or less good IFV and 500 artillery - do you really think they will be manned by "the best soldiers" ??
Most of them are dead or wounded.
So who will operate that new army?
You can't buy a proper NCO on Amazon.
It needs years to formThen let's assume NATO can form that corps in 3 months - what will they really achieve?
at least 350k newly called in reservists waiting on the other side - for sure better trained than the newly formed corps. And Russians will defend - with more ammo, artillery, tanks and AD.It will only result in what we saw before - costly "victories" - and then?
Do you really think you can compre the Kharkiv or Kherson dingy to what will be next?
Who is gaining ground for weeks in a row now?
Right - it is Russia.Ukraine tried to break through the Savato Kreminna Line since the take over of Kahrkiv region - and achieved NOTHING - while Russians got closer to Bakhmut and even took Soledar...
And a new front popped up in the south...
Who will be faster?
The new "NATO corps"?
I doubt it.
https://t.me/geromanat/4663
Posted by: Down South | Jan 22 2023 14:42 utc | 9
🇺🇦🪖📄Hunting for "cannon fodder" in OdessaA man from home looks at the process of mobilizing men. Filmed in Odessa
He will go on the front for Boris Johnson's ambition now...
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1617154441509052416
Must see! Not graphic.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 22 2023 14:46 utc | 10
🇷🇺💥🇺🇦🔥 Hell of war: The consequences of the Russian Army arrival through the eyes of the AFU militants "The military showed terrible footage of the consequences of another Russian attack," Ukrainian sources write.
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1617105558602932226
Not graphic but shows the damage the rocket attacks inflict on Ukie positions.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 22 2023 14:49 utc | 11
Just a feeling due to the general tenor of things, but one of the dams could burst this week. Weakest point of the Ukie line is the Zap region. However, with muddy conditions apparently still prevalent at that latitude wheeled vehicles may need to stick to hard roads...meaning no logistical tail available for a major breakout. O. city should fall over the week in hand to hand combat with the RF forces holding artillery supremacy.
The Artymovsk/Bakhmut front "retreat gap" should be either very tight and highly threatened by the Wagner advance. Will Zaluzhny have the stones to disobey Zelensky's orders and seek to remove his more valuable brigades out of the pocket before it closes? With daily losses averaging 500 or more, those 25-34 shattered brigades will be transformed into shadow units. There is an opportunity for those trapped troops to save their lives. They will need to outgun the Natzionalists first though in order to pull off a mass surrender.
Once the Bakhmut bag is deflated, it might be possible for the Russian forces to finally break through the retreating Ukies at long last, as open steppe country beckons.
Following Z's adamant orders, those defenders holding the few settlements between Soledar and Seversk will steadily lose ground. A fall of Seversk within the next couple weeks should open up a strong move towards Krasny Lyman.
Throughout the week the sounds of shivering timbers will be heard right up and down the front lines.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 22 2023 14:58 utc | 12
Poland is standing up it's own Mechanized Brigade ... yet is it for the AFU or is Poland possibly going to deploy it into western Ukraine, manned by Polish Army Regulars, given indications AFU is facing collapse ?
Polish TV broadcasts are now apparently showing Western Ukraine as part of Poland, on weather maps, tv shows, etc ...
Reported that at a meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine in Ramstein on January 20, Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak said that Poland would equip and train a Ukrainian brigade-level unit.It should be ready by the end of March.
The brigade will be equipped with T-72 MBTs, BMP-1 IFVs transferred by the Polish side, and possibly 122-mm 2S1 self-propelled howitzers. In total, Poland intends to transfer more than 140 units of heavy equipment to equip the brigade.
It is possible that the transfer of 42 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, together with training kits for equipping two mechanized battalions, announced by Poland in the "Tallinn Promise" as already implemented, is connected with this project.
The Polish armed forces will receive new gear to make up for the loss, including Korean-purchased K2 Black Panther MBTs and K9 155 mm self-propelled howitzers as well as M1 Abrams tanks and HIMARS missile batteries bought from the US.
Błaszczak said the talks also focused on plans to supply the Ukrainian army with German Leopard tanks.
Poland can train and equip Ukrainian brigade, says MoD
Concurrently ...
The massively overwhelming military power & arms industry might of the UK, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, Czech Republic, Netherlands & Slovakia, Coalition of the 'Rabidly Russophobic Nine' appears to being stood up by US/UK as an ad hoc group of the 'willing', given 80% of NATO is not prepared to supply Ukraine further Arms, & Germany has held its ground under intense pressure for weeks now & appears determined to stonewall re sanctioning release of Leopard II MBTs.
A Mini-Me NATO grouping to accomplish what exactly ?
This lad does a decent review of Best in Hell. I have yet to watch the actual film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVM_hRj5Jpo
Posted by: Chevrus | Jan 22 2023 15:04 utc | 14
I hope a lot of European countries will send their Leo2 to Ukraine - as much as they can.
And then we will watch what will happen.Down South | Jan 22 2023 14:42 utc |
Petr Bystron 5' speech am Bundestag was clear and 100% premonitory.
https://youtu.be/C4xqceUaQgc
I know, it's AFD. But how come no other party in Germany is telling the truth so clearly? What happened to the pacifist left, the one that defended the right of peoples to self-determination, the one that said "besser Rot als Tot" ("Better red than dead")?
I can only translate the opening sentence of the speech (using phone). But using some YT features on desk computer, it's possible to translate the whole transcript.
Also das ist schon ein interessanter Ansatz den Sie hier fahren deutsche Panzer gegen Russland in der Ukraine das haben schon Ihre Großväter versucht übrigens damals auch schon mit der Melanies und Banderas und was ist die Ergebnis unsägliches Leid sich Millionen Tote auf beiden Seiten und am Ende russische Panzer hier in Berlin und zwei davon stehen hier vorne und Sie sollten jeden Morgen daran vorbeigehen sich daran erinnern.So that's an interesting approach that you are driving German tanks against Russia in Ukraine that your grandfathers have already tried by the way back then with the Melanies and Banderas and what is the result unspeakable suffering millions of deaths on both sides and in the end Russian tanks here in Berlin and two of them are standing here in front and you should pass by it every morning to remember.
Posted by: Weimar | Jan 22 2023 15:17 utc | 15
The West's military aid packages make me think of a food drive. Lot's of virtue signaling and utterances of support for the have-nots while they clean out their pantries of expired canned goods. Cans of artichoke hearts long past their sell-by dates? Feeling charitable today. How about those boxes of hamburger helper, all you need is the hamburger. Some canned hams, only a few years old. Well, I'm not sending those until my neighbor donates his.
Of course, none of this grab bag assortment will help put together an effective combined arms force to fight a very effective and unified force. Another delusion to indulge oneself in, to avoid confronting the biggest delusion of all -- that someday soon Russia will see the error of its ways and bend the knee to the great West. The most dangerous element in this conflict is the West's total inability to come to any grips with reality - that its unipolar moment is over and it can't push around the rest of the world as it pleases.
Posted by: Mike R | Jan 22 2023 15:22 utc | 16
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 15:24 utc | 17
Isolating the battlefield?
In the previous thread @shadowbanned translated and posted a long comment by Viktor Imantovich Alxnis that was originally posted on VK. Based on his VK page, Viktor Alxnis is a member of the Russian patriotic opposition who wants more war and faster results.
Ukrainian formations are transporting Western-made armored vehicles from the Kharkiv region to the Svatov direction. In particular, it was transferred from Kharkov by two railway trains to Kupyansk. Further, in Kupyansk, heavy weapons were [un]loaded at the marshalling yard, and then sent in the direction of Svatovo.The Russian group did not take any measures to counter this. As it did not undertake and does not undertake also in other sectors of the front.
In the art of war, it is considered an axiom that without isolating the area of combat operations, their successful conduct is impossible.The isolation of a combat area is understood as a ban on the movement of enemy troops and the delivery of material and technical means to any area of combat operations. The experience of military operations of the last hundred years shows that the isolation of the combat area is a priority task of military aviation in any theater of operations, it is solved both on a tactical and strategic scale. Up to 70% of aviation sorties are assigned to this task.
Isolation of the combat area is carried out by:
- destruction of transport communications, road junctions, bridges, airfields;
- limiting the enemy's maneuver with forces and reserves, disrupting the transfer of his troops and equipment;
- strikes against suitable troops along their movement routes and in their areas of concentration.
- In the coastal theaters of military operations, the main target of air strikes are naval bases and port infrastructure,
- in areas with mountainous terrain - passes and tunnels.Based on the experience of local wars, it was concluded that the isolation of a combat area is a complex task that includes reconnaissance and immediate fire engagement of exposed targets by various tactical aviation forces. According to a number of experts, along with aviation, long-range guided weapons, airborne troops and special forces can also be used to isolate the combat area.
The current SVO in Ukraine is the first large-scale military conflict in the last 100 years, in which the Russian army refused to isolate combat areas and allows the enemy to freely transport personnel, military equipment and ammunition to the front. At the same time, the Russian army has an overwhelming superiority in the quantitative composition of tactical and army aviation, but due to the unsuppressed Ukrainian air defense, this aviation suffers serious losses and is not used to isolate the combat area.
At the same time, the suppression of Ukrainian air defense is carried out on a case-by-case basis and is not systematic. As a result, if at the beginning of the special military operation the air defense of Ukraine was relatively weak, armed with obsolete Soviet anti-aircraft missile systems and could be quickly suppressed, but for unknown reasons, apart from the bravura statements of our General Staff about its suppression and gaining air supremacy, nothing was done . At present, in connection with the supply of Western modern air defense systems, the air defense capabilities of Ukraine have increased significantly, and its suppression is becoming an increasingly difficult task every day.
I repeat, it is impossible to achieve victory without isolating the combat areas. Especially in the conditions of mass deliveries of Western weapons to Ukraine.
But this cannot be done without the use of aviation, and our aviation cannot isolate the combat area due to the unsuppressed Ukrainian air defense, the absence of modern space and air reconnaissance equipment in the Russian group, as well as the modern means of destruction necessary for this.
In addition, apparently, it can be assumed that, in addition to all of the above, there is also a political factor, when for some incomprehensible purposes, including commercial ones, there is a ban on strikes on transport infrastructure, since this can damage gas pipelines, ammonia pipelines. oil pipelines, etc., passing through the territory of Ukraine.
I disagree with Viktor Alxnis. It seems to me that Russia is intentionally not isolating the Bakhmut battlefield. Others here have reached the same conclusion. The aim is to let Ukraine move the maximum number of troops and materiel to Bakhmut, so that they may be destroyed in terrain and terms favorable to Russia.
One must also ask why Russia is attacking through the Ukrainian fortified lines in Donbass, when it might be far easier to advance through the open terrain in Kharkov or Zaporozhye. To conclude the war on favorable terms, Russia must reach the Dnieper River at the outskirts of Dnepropetrovsk. This Schwerpunkt may be easier to reach from the north or south than from the east.
The battle for Bakhmut may be a feint. Ukraine and NATO hold on to Bakhmut because they falsely believe that capturing Bakhmut is vital for the Russian war aim of liberating Donbass. Russia sees the Bakhmut meat grinder as the perfect tool for demilitarizing Ukraine and NATO. Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Defending Bakhmut to the last Ukrainian may be such a mistake.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jan 22 2023 15:29 utc | 18
@Weimar
I know, it's AFD. But how come no other party in Germany is telling the truth so clearly? What happened to the pacifist left, the one that defended the right of peoples to self-determination, the one that said "besser Rot als Tot" ("Better red than dead")?"
Well, most of these "Rather be red than dead"-people don't sit in the Bundestag anymore. Wagenknecht thinks the same way like Bystron I guess, but she can't say it so openly or she will be smeared as "anti-patriotic" or as "Moscow's 5th column".
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 15:31 utc | 19
What does the bar think of “ Natokraine ” as a term to refer to the army and political subunit that Russia is fighting?
I prefer it over “kyiv/kiev regime” because (a) that current regime will change, maybe this year, and (b) all the important decisions for “the part of Ukraine that NATO controls” are — like those for the fictional “South Vietnam” puppets — made from outside the country and so embedding the name of the capitol city subtly misrepresents what it is.
Similarly, I prefer it over “Ukraine” for roughly the same reason.
Posted by: Natokraine | Jan 22 2023 15:52 utc | 20
not sure how much longer it will stay up but best in hell at 720p is posted here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4ZxWaRHhnQ
Posted by: Qsvgxn | Jan 22 2023 15:54 utc | 21
In eastern Germany, there is a growing sentiment against the current brown-green government.Here I hear at the dentist,in the discount store and at the market as good as no voice pro brown-green.
We have experienced in East Germany the young conscripted Russians in the 80s, how they were treated like cattle by their officers.There is already a lot of sympathy for the normal Russian citizen.And we older East Germans know the history of the WK 2.
And we know that Russia (Z) is the successor state of the USSR-->and not the Ukraine.
Unfortunately, there are people in all important positions in Germany who don't give a damn.
Best regards @ Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 15:31 utc | 19
Thanks @ deepl.com
Posted by: Oberbayer | Jan 22 2023 15:55 utc | 22
@ Petri Krohn | Jan 22 2023 15:29 utc | 18
i like how you think petri.. that is a definite possibility - "The battle for Bakhmut may be a feint."
Posted by: james | Jan 22 2023 15:58 utc | 23
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 22 2023 13:41 utc | 2
Posted by: Simplicius | Jan 22 2023 14:10 utc | 7
Posted by: Qsvgxn | Jan 22 2023 15:54 utc | 21
Re: Best in Hell
Gave a plug for this a couple threads ago. It is a very interesting piece of film.. quite even handed and minimal propaganda compared to any western war film.
The reason for the realism is that it was filmed by Wagner in Popasnaya, after taking it. They are the real ruins. When the tanks fire, they are real tanks, firing real rounds at real buildings. They used live explosives, and real guns. You'll never get anything like that in "movie" SFX. AFAIK the only effects in it were the overheads of Uragan hits and the distance shot of the plane strike.
On a sadder note: "Polygon" (The leader of the white team) was really the squad leader and died very recently in Artemovsk.
Posted by: dask | Jan 22 2023 16:04 utc | 24
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Zaporozhye directionAt these moments, information comes about the beginning of the battles for the settlement of Kamianske, and it is also reported that Russian Army crossed to the right bank of the Yaremechya River
https://t.me/azmilitary11/34442
Posted by: Down South | Jan 22 2023 16:05 utc | 25
I still don’t think we’ll see big arrow offensives with deep penetration by the Russians. At this point it appears clear that the prime directive is to destroy the Ukrainian military capability and all the assistance it gets.
I can see a strong but “slow” push from the south. There are southern territories which need to be liberated and operational / strategic depth for the Crimean land bridge. Plus it is well know that Ukraine wants to sever that land bridge and threaten Crimea. The most recent equipment package seems designed for a spring/summer offensive in that direction. I suspect that the forces to the north will be the anvil, those in the south the hammer … though maybe a hydraulic press is a better analogy. Push the Donbas front between them.
Bakhmut almost certainly goes into the books as a massive strategic error on the part of Ukraine. It should have been abandoned at least a month ago to preserve forces and equipment. Whether the reason is purely political / propaganda or there is less than full confidence in the third line of defense is up for debate. That third line is a lot shorter. And every day the Ukrainians wait makes the trip there more dangerous.
Posted by: Lex | Jan 22 2023 16:17 utc | 26
Somehow I get the feeling that the Ukraine fiasco is coming to an end, with the only thing remaining is finding someone to blame. And it seems Germany drew the short straw.
Or maybe that's not the best way to phrase it. Drawing the short straw implies random chance, when in fact Germany was always going to take the fall. Hence all the whining about Leopard 2. "We would love to send Abrams M1, but you know, logistics, heavy weight, and gravity in Ukraine is much higher than the rest of the earth, don't you know."
I'm sure the Leopard is a fine tank, but without proper combined arms support, and without properly trained crews it simply won't survive.
And everyone knows this. So either Germany gets blamed for not providing tanks, or it gets blamed for providing "bad" tanks.
I truly hope that one result of this war is that Germany finds the space to regain her freedom.
Posted by: Lysander | Jan 22 2023 16:18 utc | 27
@Lysander
Somehow I get the feeling that the Ukraine fiasco is coming to an end, with the only thing remaining is finding someone to blame. And it seems Germany drew the short straw.
And? Who cares? As long as the German-Russian-relations aren't totally messed up, why should Germany care what Poles, Ukros or the Baltic minions think?
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 16:25 utc | 28
One expects the Russians will have something major to show for the solemn yet celebratory One Year of War in Ukraine Day on February 24. Folks are yapping it up about the coming Spring Offensive by Ukraine to turn the tide on defeat and chase the Russians back to Moscow.
One expects by February 24, it's going to be clear no Spring Offensive is coming and the war is essentially over but for the evil that keeps it going.
Posted by: gottlieb | Jan 22 2023 16:32 utc | 29
Good news for Azow: Facebook has lifted all restrictions for the Azow Battalion:
Mykhailo Fedorov
@FedorovMykhailo
Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine
Important news from @Meta
— changes in platform’s policies. Azov regiment no longer meets designation as dangerous organization. Means a lot for every Ukrainian.
https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1616155112547688448
Doesn't say whether Facebook considers Asow no longer a threat because the entire battalion in in Russian POW camps. Or whether Facebook no longer considers Nazi Symbols and Hate Speech something that we should be protected from.
Posted by: Marvin | Jan 22 2023 16:35 utc | 30
" Another vote for the movie "Best in Hell" - absolutely amazing & realistic and likely as close as one can come to what is actually taking place in Donbass or any modern war...
I'd like to know how the technical details of how such a movie can be made. CGI is one thing, but not enough to explain the realism.
Posted by: Simplicius | Jan 22 2023 14:10 utc | 7 "
Making a movie like this while people are still dying is highly distasteful. I would love to meet the person who thought this was a good idea.
Additionally, anyone " getting off " on how realistic the combat in this movie is needs to go on Reddit, or similar sites, and watch real combat in action. I'm sure after a few minutes of watching actual people die their enthusiasm for war and realistic combat will be greatly diminished. War isnt supposed to be entertaining.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 22 2023 16:43 utc | 31
" And? Who cares? As long as the German-Russian-relations aren't totally messed up, why should Germany care what Poles, Ukros or the Baltic minions think?
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 16:25 utc | 28 "
For Russians without any ulterior motives the relationship with Germany is over. The Germans have shown their true colors.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 22 2023 16:45 utc | 32
@ Marvin | Jan 22 2023 16:35 utc | 30
The Azov BN has been reformed with fresh recruits and is being sent to the Southern front.
Meta spurred on hate speech against Russians. This wouldn't be odd that Meta would be okay with Azov now.
Posted by: Malwen | Jan 22 2023 16:57 utc | 34
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 22 2023 16:43 utc | 31
I agree with your general sentiment, but would note that some involved were still fighting as they filmed it and at minimum the lead soldier died fighting in Artemovsk a week or so ago. I won't second guess his motive for participating in the making of it.
It glorifies nothing, no music, no cheering. And depicts the 'white' and 'yellow' teams as brothers and equals. It shows what the poor souls on the front line are up against. I have family there, on both sides, and bleed for them.
There were a few distasteful bits about it, but it is very, very far from a normal Hollywood war movie. I call it an interesting bit of film, not from a "getting off" perspective, but for the fact it is as close as you can get to understanding what those on the front are going through without resorting to clips. I get nightmares from the real stuff, and this served one purpose in that it turned all the "armchair observer" readings of news and telegram battle 'reports' into huge amounts of sympathy for all those involved. In this way, ironically, I found the movie very humanizing.
Posted by: dask | Jan 22 2023 17:05 utc | 35
@Deplorable Commissar
The Germans have shown their true colors.
The Russians know, that Germany is an occupied country, and they know, that the USA controls most of the political parties and the mainstream media. The Germans have been brainwashed since '45. Nonetheless, a lot of Germans want to have a friendly relationship with Russia, and most of the German companies even more so. The Germans did not vote for war (the Ukros don't have either, btw. Keep in mind, Selenkskyj promised peace-talks with Russia during his campaign). A possible war against Russia was not a dominant issue in the German election campaign in 2021. The Green Party and the FDP have no voter mandate for their anti-Russian policies. They only have the support of the corrupt press, that pours out anti-Russian propaganda 24/7.
The Russians know all that, I'm sure. Putin lived some years in East Germany, he speaks German fluently, he knows that. And Germany will stay geographically where it is, as Russia will stay geographically where it is. So I really do think, if Russia sees any possibility of improving German-Russian relations again, they will try. Otherwise their only option is to fully rely on China.
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 17:11 utc | 36
@ Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 22 2023 16:43 utc | 31
Agree. "Best in Hell" is a Wagner recruitment video, full stop. I bailed after 5 minutes.
Perhaps Mozart will soon make a similar version.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 22 2023 17:19 utc | 37
Russia might not be destroying the transportation infrastructure because their military will use it as they pass the current defensive lines. Also, their motivation for being there is to give possession to the new Russian citizens who live there. They are fighting enemies, but are fighting on land that belongs to fellow Russians. They shouldn't act like foreign invaders.
Posted by: barstool | Jan 22 2023 17:21 utc | 38
Transportation infra is a linear target and, except for points like bridges or tunnels, cant be destroyed.
Holes in the road or railway can be circumvented or repaired in short order. The road itself goes on for many many kilometers undamaged.
My oppinion is that the Russians also dont have the technical means to destroy rear shipments on the way efficiently. Meaning the downside of losses is greater than the upside of destroying them on average. But I dont know exactly.
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 22 2023 17:37 utc | 39
aristodemos | Jan 22 2023 14:58 utc | 12
Russia is putting pressure on the Ukr lines from Bakhmut all the way round to the Dnieper. I have not head of more pressure north to the Russian border apart from Shelling in the Sumy region. Ukr has I think started moving forces south to the Zap area.
The ground in the north is frozen. A Russian push down the Oskil River seems likely.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 22 2023 17:40 utc | 40
Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 15:31 utc | 19
Hang on there, Apollyon! Fr. Wagenecht is no mealy-mouthed temporizer. The lady has an impressive pair of brass balls and she's been letting it all hang out for some time, notwithstanding the abuse she receives in return.
Sahra's latest edition of "Wagenknecht's Wochenshau" is a just as direct and more detailed takedown of those pushing for Germany and NATO's escalating weapons deliveries to the Zelensky regime that Germany's Junge Liberale ("Young Liberals") pitch as "Krieg beenden -- Panzer senden" (they may not know much, but at least they can rhyme).
How idiotic does one have to be to believe "End the war -- send tanks"?
Posted by: BillC | Jan 22 2023 17:42 utc | 41
Ukraine mobilization extreme. The militant thugs driving around in vans don't even bother asking papers or identity anymore, they will just grab you and send you to front.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ_uytQN0QI
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2023 17:42 utc | 42
@Apollyon
If there was ever an opportunity for Germany to show that it had changed its stance on the eastern Slavs, it was in the course of the Yugoslav crisis and eventual NATO bombing of Serbia. Germany (and Austria) happily repeated there what they had already done twice that century, i.e. plot and execute the destruction of Serbs.
Russia would be criminally stupid to think that latent German fear and hatred of any independent east in general and the orthodox Slavs in particular will change, after repeating thrice and with the Ukrainian crisis - a fourth time - the same policy in little over one century.
And before someone remarks that Ukraine is an orthodox Christian Slavic nation too, a kind reminder that its current ruling elite, which Germany helped to come to power is definitely not Christian, and many of them aren't even Slavs either.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 22 2023 17:46 utc | 43
@ apollyon
I think the Russians realize that relations with Germany are permanently broken; German perfidy has simply been too egregious to reestablish any kind of trust. Not even what you folks call a “Canossagang” would help.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 17:48 utc | 44
Those press gang videos circulating turn my stomach. Note - the press gangs will be eventually rounding up Ukrainian citizens living in NATO countries.
Reminds me of the well known quotation ;
What would things been like [in Soviet Russia] if during periods of mass arrests people had not simply sat there, paling with terror at every bang on the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but understood they had nothing to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people?
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Posted by: Exile | Jan 22 2023 17:56 utc | 45
Agree. "Best in Hell" is a Wagner recruitment video, full stop. I bailed after 5 minutes.
Maybe Mozart will soon make a similar version.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 22 2023 17:19 utc | 37
Recruitment propaganda shows perspectives.
"Best in hell" is an anti-war film by soldiers. It shows the everyday life of combined arms warfare in the 21st century between fighters who use the same weapons, know the tactics of the enemy and speak the same language. No side is portrayed in a morally privileged way; the background or goals of the conflict are not illuminated.
A single mission of the Wagner Group is used to convey the practice of combat in the current conflict. Whether there is a factual basis is unknown to me.
In addition, there is the component of dealing with death.
Both sides recall "Take death, give death", the motto of the Waffen-SS.
Added to this is a bit of gallows humour.
For me, it is the best cinematic realisation of modern urban warfare so far.
Anyone who lets himself be recruited by this film would be crazy in my eyes.
This film is more an indictment of the world. And the Wagner Group commemorates itself because no one else does.
Mozart is a PMC, Wagner is Executive Outcomes on steroids, own tanks, artillery, planes, helicopters....
But propaganda films by the West are sure to come, with "Ukrainian heroes" and "Russian barbarians". In contrast to "Best in hell", however, their information value is likely to be limited.
Posted by: 600w | Jan 22 2023 18:06 utc | 46
Say what you like about "Best in Hell" (I likked it and I am a filmmaker) but the message is rather stunning: two slav brothers whose grandpas fought all the way to Berlin in a fight to the death. That is clearly an encouragement for a coup d'état against the NATO-Zelienskyy clique. It is at least on par with ROME.
Posted by: Stierlitz | Jan 22 2023 18:06 utc | 47
Bojo back in Kiev is bad news. Brits are most likely to crank things up a notch or two. They've run out of Ukies judging by the videos of goons simply grabbing struggling cannon fodder off the street.
Biden classified doc's and Bojo in Kiev. A good chance the war against Russia will get much larger.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 22 2023 18:20 utc | 48
Re: Poland and the Coalition of the 'Rabidly Russophobic Nine' appears to being stood up by US/UK as an ad hoc group of the 'willing', given 80% of NATO is not prepared to supply Ukraine further Arms, & Germany has held its ground under intense pressure for weeks now & appears determined to stonewall re sanctioning release of Leopard II MBTs.
@ Posted by: Outraged | Jan 22 2023 14:59 utc | 13
Many thanks for that.
RT
Poland to set up ‘coalition’ to overcome German stance on tanks – PM
Mateusz Morawiecki has blasted Berlin’s “unacceptable” position after it failed to authorize the delivery of Leopards to Kiev
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has taken the German leadership to task over its reluctance to provide tanks to Ukraine. He said Berlin would end up on the wrong side of history unless it gave the green light to such deliveries.On Friday, Berlin reiterated its unwillingness to send Leopard 2 tanks to Kiev. It also failed to authorize other countries to send them. Poland is among those who possess the hardware and have said they are ready to hand it over.
In an interview with the Polish Press Agency published on Sunday, Morawiecki said that Warsaw was prepared to set up a “smaller coalition” to facilitate the handover of German-made Leopards. Citing the Ukraine Contact Group’s failure to reach an agreement during a meeting at US air base Ramstein on Friday, the Polish premier described Germany’s stance as “unacceptable.”
Earlier this month, the German government warned nations operating the Leopard 2 that acting without its consent would be “illegal.”[.](emphasis added)
No. Poland is setting up a deep fracture of the EU/NATO and ending being on the wrong side of history. Poland has a big angst with Germany who refuses to pay it US$1.4 trillion war reparations.
Considering the “rabid nine” rely on German wallets, we’ll see how many are willing to violate her authority to re-export the Leopards.
But this thing about sending tanks. I read a piece on stats - 2022 inventory of battle tanks by country,- the top 25 countries (prior to February 22, 2022):
Russia is No.1: 12,566 tanks v Ukraine 1,890 tanks
All those UKR tanks are now scrap metal?
The USUK Twindom thought Putin was bluffing and instigated a war without taking into account inventory and logistics v. the enemy.
UK will now send 14 Challenger tanks and 30 AS90 guns to push Russia back, take Krim and win the war. Said with a straight face. Seriously doomed.
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 22 2023 18:23 utc | 49
🇪🇺🚂🇷🇺🇨🇳Rare metals needed for the production of microchips, electronics and armor-piercing ammunition are supplied to the EU from China via Russia, Bloomberg wrote.Russia has remained a key link in the supply of rare earth metals from China to the EU. Despite the conflict in Ukraine and sanctions, the volume of traffic on Russian railways has more than doubled in the first nine months of 2022
Rare earth elements necessary for the production of microchips, electronics and ammunition used in modern weapons are being transported from China to Europe through Russia, Bloomberg reports.
China supplies more than 90% of the rare earth metals used in the EU. Thus, Chinese lanthanum is widely used by Western manufacturers of armor-piercing ammunition. The most demanded tungsten in the EU, used for the production of anti-tank weapons, is also supplied by China.
According to Bloomberg, according to the latest EU data, Russian railways remain an important link in supplies from China, despite the fact that the total share of traffic through Russia is 3-4% of the total volume of trade between China and the EU. Metals can also be shipped by sea, but this route takes twice as long as rail. A freight train departing from the Chinese city of Wuhan to the German Duisburg through the territory of Russia takes only 16 days.
The volume of Chinese metals transported by trains, including those that fell under the European sanctions of the "Russian Railways", increased to 36 thousand tons in the first nine months of 2022. This is more than twice the volume transported for the whole of 2021. The volume of trade in rare earth metals increased by more than four-fifths in nine months and by September amounted to €377 million ($408 million).
"It's amazing that, despite all the sanctions, this supply chain is still working," said the founder of the exploration company Norge Mining Ltd. Michael Wurmser. In his opinion, this underlines the importance of rare earth elements and the EU's dependence on them.
Rare earth metals are crucial in the production of a number of products — from batteries to microchips, and almost two-thirds of the identified reserves were under the control of China and Russia. Abandoning Chinese tungsten mines, which account for more than 83% of global production, could make Western economies particularly vulnerable, Bloomberg notes.
At the same time, demand is only growing due to "defense spending fueled by the conflict between Ukraine and Russia," according to Tungsten West Plc. "Competition for resources is about to become even more intense," said Rafael Loss, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations dealing with military trade issues. https://fortune.com/2023/01/22/ukraine-war-europe-russia-rail-trade-china-defense-industry-rare-earth-supply-chains/
https://t.me/azmilitary11/34453
Posted by: Down South | Jan 22 2023 18:25 utc | 50
@Boo
If there was ever an opportunity for Germany to show that it had changed its stance on the eastern Slavs, it was in the course of the Yugoslav crisis and eventual NATO bombing of Serbia. Germany (and Austria) happily repeated there what they had already done twice that century, i.e. plot and execute the destruction of Serbs.
Once again: Germany is an occupied country, with a brainwashed population. When you turn on German TV, all you get is lies, lies and some more lies. Nevertheless, a large part of the German population is against arms deliveries to the Ukraine.
Putin knows that. The German chancellor in office during the NATO-war against Serbia was Gerhard Schröder. Putin wished Schröder a happy new year recently: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/neujahreswuensche-putin-biden-macron-scholz-schroeder-100.html
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 18:32 utc | 51
I think the Russians realize that relations with Germany are permanently broken;
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 17:48 utc | 44
The relations with Germany were already once broken until 1945 when sometime in May they abruptly became good again.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 22 2023 18:33 utc | 52
Mike R @16
"How about those boxes of hamburger helper, all you need is the hamburger."
You summed it up beautifully !
Posted by: Steve from Oz | Jan 22 2023 18:37 utc | 53
Another vote for the movie "Best in Hell" - absolutely amazing & realistic and likely as close as one can come to what is actually taking place in Donbass or any modern war...
I'd like to know how the technical details of how such a movie can be made. CGI is one thing, but not enough to explain the realism.
Posted by: Simplicius | Jan 22 2023 14:10 utc | 7
________________________
If you're the same Simplicius that runs the bitchute channel, my hats off to you. That channel is insanely prolific. You should have a considerable video chronology of this war by now, would be incredible to compile and organize it all into a documentary series.
Posted by: liveload | Jan 22 2023 18:42 utc | 54
The "permanent government" of the exceptional USA.
Biden classified doc's and Bojo in Kiev. A good chance the war against Russia will get much larger.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 22 2023 18:20 utc | 48
Mike Whitney had a piece on the question of those classified docs, “Is Biden Being Blackmailed to Send US Combat Troops to Ukraine”?
Paul Craig Roberts and Tucker Carlson see it differently. It’s
How Troublesome Presidents Are Disposed of
Tucker Carlson provides an excellent 12 minute report about the CIA’s removal of President Kennedy and President Nixon. I recommend that you watch it 2 or 3 times until it sinks in and forward it to all of your friends and relatives. There is nowhere else you can get so much solid and important information in 12 minutes.Carlson believes that Biden, no longer useful to the establishment, is currently undergoing removal.
I have reported the truth about the removal of Presidents Kennedy and Nixon from office for decades. It was thrilling to me to see after a half century Tucker Carlson give the same explanations to such a large audience. If Americans could only wake up and become involved it might be possible to save our country and the liberty of Americans.
The Carlson Video: Biden Done https://www.unz.com/proberts/how-troublesome-presidents-are-disposed-of/”>LINK
And then the US will have the first female president whose husband is of the chosen tribe. He did open up about his Jewish faith.
Events in 2023 are moving faster than anticipated.
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 22 2023 18:47 utc | 55
Posted by: dask | Jan 22 2023 16:04 utc | 24
Thanks for the information. I agree this movie is probably the best war movie ever made, with maximum realism, at least as compared to Hollywood stuff.
Reminds me of the John Wayne movie, "Green Berets", where soldiers were jumping over exploding artillery shells without harm. That's Hollywood.
I also agree with whoever said it's ridiculous to consider this a recruitment film for Wagner. Did they not notice that everyone dies (except maybe two guys, the air strike spotter is one) in this movie?
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 22 2023 18:50 utc | 56
Likklemore | Jan 22 2023 18:23 utc | 49 "Considering the “rabid nine” rely on German wallets, we’ll see how many are willing to violate her authority to re-export the Leopards."
For the rabid nine, the only future they see is war with Russia. Self destruction like that has been common throughout history.
I read something about US replacing Leopards sent to Ukraine with Abrams. Basically cutting Germany out of that part of the future European tank market.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 22 2023 18:52 utc | 57
Apologies. @ post 55, page went crazy in preview:
The Carlson video: LINK
and available on YouTube
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 22 2023 18:53 utc | 58
Looks like Nato aligned command personnel are being kicked out of the Hungarian military. They clearly see danger in what US is going to attempt next.
https://twitter.com/HungaryBased/status/1617203317968408576
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2023 18:54 utc | 59
Emil Kio was a Soviet magician whose speciality was to perform illusions in front of circus audiences who, by the very nature of the seating, had a 360 view of the proceedings. Under this constant observation, or perhaps because of it, he was able to convince those watching ‘Cremation’ that he had immolated himself and his assistant, who would appear unscathed from a box suspended in the air. I think Russia’s response to NATO’s near-constant ISR coverage is to play the Kio gambit, use the very nature of this invasive surveillance as a tool to achieve one’s aims.
It’s a theory, obviously but it might explain how Russia is both confusing it’s opponents and frustrating it’s supporters by constantly defying both camps expectations. NATO’s public solution has been to pretend all their assumptions were correct, creating a stereotypical Russian WW2 offensive, that most of the public are too ignorant or uncaring to challenge. The reality though is that Russia seems to be winning, despite Western support, and seems to be inside NATO’s strategic OODA loop. In the other camp, some of their supporters are frustrated that Russia is not conforming to another stereotype; The Mighty Bear, a fearsome beast with big arrow moves, concealed by cunning 4D strategies, capable, surely, of smashing it’s opponent. Concerned at it’s failure to perform, interestingly, they ascribe weaknesses that match those of the Bears enemies.
Both groups might take time to reflect that at the core of misdirection is a simple idea: tell people what you are going to do, watch them naturally focus on the opposite thing, affording you the opportunity to do what you originally intended, but not in the way you suggested. Oh, and move things around constantly in plain sight, whilst making the occasional unexpected move. An example would be the concept of demilitarisation, NATO, through it’s proxy, planned and prepared defences against a massive armoured thrust that would take the country. Russia attempted a failed coup-de-main whilst rolling up to the defences, stopped, and proceeded to wage a war of attrition. By the time NATO had stopped congratulating themselves they realised, too late, what demilitarisation meant and the rest is history. Now, the expectation is for a major offensive, so dutifully they do not attack, instead preparing defences, conducting limited attacks and remote strikes. NATO though are not fooled, reinforcing likely axes of attack and making preparations for spoiling counter-attacks and counter-offensives, when the Russians run out of steam. Gradually, to their horror, they realise the Russians keep attacking the same locations, but with greatly reinforced artillery assets and the line begins to buckle and crack. A stealth offensive that achieves the same goals albeit slower than a conventional assault, which draws in enemy reserves and destroys the counter offensives without a battle.
I’d wager, any focused offensive will come when the West’s ISR is looking the wrong way and it will be achieved counter to their expectations leaving them, like Kio’s audiences, baffled and confused at just how Russia achieved her objectives when they were being watched all the time.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 22 2023 18:58 utc | 60
@49 "UK will now send 14 Challenger tanks and 30 AS90 guns to push Russia back, take Krim and win the war. Said with a straight face. Seriously doomed."
Yes it will be amusing to watch the 14 Challenger tanks taking back Crimea. I know I shouldn't make light of all this but another amusing aspect is that since the US has chickened out of sending tanks they can't accuse Germany of cowardice.
Posted by: dh | Jan 22 2023 18:59 utc | 61
@Apollyon
Schröder is one of Russia's business connections. He sat on the board of Nord Stream and Rosneft. And much like in 1999, his party, i.e. Sholcz's current party was with the rabidly pro-war greens in a coalition - which given the historical precedent is all it takes for Germany to succumb to war fever. It's a pity that Putin, who likes to refer to the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia so often, does not extend his convictions on the matter to his choice of business partners - but I guess it was Putin's delusions regarding the West that in some respects led Russia to this point in the first place.
I agree that Germany is occupied and brainwashed - but the Americans didn't need to do much brainwashing in relation to the German attitudes toward the East, Serbia or Russia. After all, the general idea in regards to the Slavs ('kill them all and replace them with German settlers') was very much alive up until Soviet tanks drove up to the Reichstag.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 22 2023 19:03 utc | 62
That's Hollywood.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 22 2023 18:50 utc | 56
In a Hollywood movie someone will always say "it was an honor to serve with you".
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 22 2023 19:16 utc | 63
„How did you go bankrupt?“
“Two ways”, he replies, “gradually and then suddenly.”
(citation: bigserge.subtrack / the blood pump originaly by Hemingway)
Looking at the period after leaving Kherson one could observing a gradual increase of the internal and external pressure in Ukraine. The contradictions are steadily escelating. The military aspect, i think, is just the most obvious one to analyse.
From the „tank delivery saga“, the mobilisation madness, escelating cassulties, near collapsing energy distribution (thus economy), prosecution of orthodox faith (burning curches in Kiev!) , up to the reshuffeling of the Ukrainian political leadership (Helicopter crash / Arestovich resignation) it seems that the situation in its totality becomes instabile.
As Frantz Fanon once stated:
“There is a point at which systems tend to deavoure itself.”
We are at this point now and there is no way back anymore. We reached critical mass.
Everything indicates that the core of ukranian society becomes instable and a chain reaction is about to start or started already ( “gradually and then suddenly.”) The military situation is the moderator in this analogy. But it might turn out that it is not and can not be the decisive factor.
Only a internal collapse of Ukraine, in whatever form (military coupe / public uprising) can bring some form of resolution to the conflict and hinder further outside meddling.
I simply can not imagine the russian allied forces taking Kiev let alone Liviv. Nor can i imagine a survival of the current regime, in Kiev, in whatever shape and form. The division of Ukraine is obviously already happening but any scenario involving russian allied forces beyond Donbass
and/or westwards of the Dnjepr river seem incredibly unlikely to me (destruction / cost / long term commitment / partisan war).
Well and Odessa of course. I dont see a scenario were its inevitable destruction, in case of a siege, seems any how acceptable to the russian leadership and society.
The demilitirazied zone suggested by John Helmer (dancing with bears) so far was one if the only end game scenarios i saw so far. But its implementation seems rather difficult considering the sheer size it would have to cover.
Did anybody saw a full transcript of Arestovichs interview AFTER the resegnation? Could only find snipets. Given Arestovichs former position and his puplic exposure this seems like an very interesting development. Espacially considering his statments about alienating the russian speaking population.
Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 22 2023 19:22 utc | 64
@Boo
I agree that Germany is occupied and brainwashed - but the Americans didn't need to do much brainwashing in relation to the German attitudes toward the East, Serbia or Russia. After all, the general idea in regards to the Slavs ('kill them all and replace them with German settlers') was very much alive up until Soviet tanks drove up to the Reichstag.
Do you really think the vast majority of the German people thinks 'kill them all and replace them with German settlers'?
The Germans have been told by the NATO-controlled media that the Serb soldiers are grilling fetuses and that a second Holocaust takes place. There is a TV-documentary about it, "It all started with a lie": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtkQYRlXMNU
Here some results of several opinion polls. They all proof that the German people wanted a closer relationship to Russia. But once again, the NATO-controlled media tries to lie them into war:
https://www.cicero.de/aussenpolitik/die-deutschen-haben-ein-positives-russlandbild/42425
https://www.ost-ausschuss.de/de/PM%20Forsa%20Gesamt
https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/FT_18.11.26_USGermany_Americanswant.png
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 19:25 utc | 65
@ Apollyon
Who cares what the German people want? The German leadership—heck, the German opposition too—doesn't care what the German people want, and there’s nothing the German people can or for that matter want to do about it. Germans are notoriously obedient people.
@ Vikichka
If you’re suggesting that the Russians need to conquer Germany again, well, no objection from me!
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 19:36 utc | 66
@ apollyon
I think the Russians realize that relations with Germany are permanently broken; German perfidy has simply been too egregious to reestablish any kind of trust. Not even what you folks call a “Canossagang” would help.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 17:48 utc | 44
Well, I am hesitant with the word "permanent", but the current German government, or let's call it "political circus", has sure ruined Russo-German relations for a decade or so. The current clowns were and are so walled up in their ivory tower that they have no way out now, yet how this gang is being removed and politics get back to a level away from the current loony bin is hard to see.
As has been said, Putin served in the former GDR and knows the German people. He sure is more clued up on the Germans than the latter will ever be about Russia and especially Putin. He'll know who is responsible and who holds the strings.
Sahra Wagenknecht is currently tops the popularity polls of German politicians, yet, her influence in the current "regime" is limited.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 22 2023 19:38 utc | 67
@64
Edit: “There is a point at which a system tends to deavour itself.”
Messed up the qoute. Dont have the book at hand. Old eastern german print of collected texts by Frantz Fanon “ Das kollonisierte Ding wird Mensch”.
Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 22 2023 19:40 utc | 68
The filth that rules the little people...
https://twitter.com/MissTruth2022/status/1616401510509715460
Ursula von der Leyen: "When my own children join the armed forces (bundeswher) and it would be necessary to deploy them, then I would indeed be afraid like any other mother"
Interviewer: "Is one of your children in the armed forces?"
Ursula von der Leyen: "No, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA"
And it's not that this corrupt fiend that stole her thesis and used EU money to spend on the company her husband is working for has too few children because she has 7!
And here you have some of the little people in Ukraine reluctant to serve as meat, the likes of Ursula laughs about, the US empire.
https://t.me/intelslava/43622
https://t.me/intelslava/43602
https://t.me/intelslava/43584?single
Posted by: xor | Jan 22 2023 19:43 utc | 69
@ malenkov | Jan 22 2023 19:36 utc | 66
i think you can extend that idea of 'obedience' to all of the poodles - canada, australia, and etc. etc... the fact is that until the people of these countries demonstrate in huge numbers, nothing will change.. and even then they are all fed a constant diet of bullshit from the msm, so they are fighting an uphill battle... i believe @ apollyon is correct, but it doesn't seem to matter.. same deal here in canada... we don't have a democracy.. we have a plutocracy run by the corporations and elite.. the public have been truly shafted... btw - i am enjoying this conservation.. thanks to all who are contributing to it..
Posted by: james | Jan 22 2023 19:44 utc | 70
@Lizitsky
Arestovich is playing a curious game. I'm quite certain he deliberately self destructed with the statement that the Ukrainian anti air missile led to the civilian casualties in Dnipro. As a professional spin doctor he knew he'd be attacked for it and could use it to resign, which is much easier than to up and leave out of the blue.
What he aims to achieve by leaving the sinking ship at this moment is uncertain. He could quite easily be taken out by the SBU, yet he doesn't seem concerned at all, so he must have powerful backers.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 22 2023 19:44 utc | 71
@Milites | Jan 22 2023 18:58 utc | 60
I agree. This is the first large-scale conflict in many decades involving tens of thousands of troops on both sides and all the necessary logistics to support the war effort, and the first where it is impossible to hide the massing of troops and supplies from your opponent. One must assume that your enemy sees all, but still deception and surprise must be achieved where ever possible. Will there be a big Russian offensive before March? On one front? Several fronts? Which ones? So far Russia seems to have been successful in creating uncertainty at many levels, more or less throughout the course of the SMO. Some of the confusion may have been accidental or unintentional, but clearly both they (and the UAF) are attempting to use misdirection and deception at all scales.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 22 2023 19:44 utc | 72
@ CM of Berlin
It is indeed possible, I suppose, that Russia will be foolish enough to seek better relations with Germany in a decade or two.
All I can foresee, if the Russians are sensible, is limited trade, with payment in advance in rubles, gold (the real thing, not paper), or yuan.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 19:48 utc | 73
@ james
Yes, lots of poodles, roughly 50 in number. Russia increasingly doesn’t need them. They’re probably beyond salvation (I mean that in a nonreligious sense but religionists can take it both ways) anyway.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2023 19:53 utc | 74
Interesting to note UAF and western media hasn't admitted that Russia holds Soledar. They still keep holding it on the social media. It means that it, and the front on that area is far more important than admitted, too.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2023 19:57 utc | 75
Everyone seems to be describing the collective West's strategy of showering Ukraine with all kinds of weapons as non-sensical (e.g. The Duran). However, from the perspective of the US it makes perfect sense. On the one hand the US has been pressuring their "allies" i.e. vassals, to increase their military/defense budgets for years now, and now here's the perfect opportunity to get rid of all the non-US weapons in NATO arsenal. The result is going to be that everybody is going to need new equipment which will have to be ordered from the big brother.
Posted by: Pagan | Jan 22 2023 20:06 utc | 76
@Pagan | Jan 22 2023 20:06 utc | 76
This is certainly one objective, and an important one for the US.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 22 2023 20:12 utc | 77
@ PeterAU1 57
Abrams tanks. I read their weight and fuel requirements present challenges. Ukie roads/infrastructure, gas guzzlers. So are they being shipped with a few gas stations and storage tankers on standby?
+ + + + + + +
Larry Johnson's latest finds the US-led NATO is continuing perception management of the great unwashed.
When on the losing end, deploy the propaganda artillery.
-"Russia faces incredible poverty warns ex-INF chief" (The Telegraph, UK)
WHY ARE WESTERN ESTABLISHMENT AND PUNDITS LOSING THEIR MINDS OVER UKRAINE?
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 22 2023 20:18 utc | 78
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 22 2023 17:40 utc | 40 "A Russian push down the Oskil River seems likely."
It looks like there is a road that parallels the river on the east side. The road runs to Dorichna which is adjacent to Kupyansk. But that goes close to Svatove. West side appears to have more open space.
Got a guess on which side they would use, if they did come south there?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 22 2023 20:19 utc | 79
@76
It's looking like one gets a lot more bang for the buck with Russian weapons.
Posted by: chunga | Jan 22 2023 20:29 utc | 80
pagan @ 76
I agree that would be a plan to get more money out of Europe and destroy their ability to make their own military hardware... but who is going to manufacture the new US made hardware? The US is de-industrailized .. I see no moves in the US to build new factories to increase production and no move the educate and train a workforce... as with almost everything in the US you just imagine the narrative and it happens.
Posted by: dp | Jan 22 2023 20:35 utc | 81
@dp | Jan 22 2023 20:35 utc | 81
Only signed contracts are required to improve the stock price.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 22 2023 20:40 utc | 82
@ Boo | Jan 22 2023 19:44 utc | 71
Somehow i find it hard to believe that his remarks were necessary for him leaving the scene. This is why i am so curious to read a full transkript of his interview after he resigned. From what i read so far they seem like a radical shift from the current inner ukrainian discours. He seems to feel safe indeed. That again points towards some possible split with in the regime.
Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 22 2023 20:40 utc | 83
I've got a question about Germany. The German government opposes being the first to send tanks to Ukraine. Why? Is this because sending tanks would make the current government impopular? Is this because images of German rolling over the Ukrainian plain bring back memories? Or is this because the German government feels that returning to business as usual with Russia after the war is becoming a rather remote possibility?
Posted by: Passerby | Jan 22 2023 20:55 utc | 84
Nato is not running short on anything and unfortunately for Ukraine and Russia this thing is just getting started. Even the Russians know they cannot keep up with all of Nato. I have no idea how the Russians get themselves out of this situation but it is starting to get extremely dangerous.
Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 22 2023 20:57 utc | 85
Posted by: Qsvgxn | Jan 22 2023 15:54 utc | 21
A link to youtube without looking for alternatives essentially amounts to support for the censoring bat turds of google-youtube.
https://odysee.com/@airbornewolf:8/18+-RF-Ukraine-war-movie-The-Best-in-Hell:8
https://odysee.com/@Iceisnice11:8/%F0%9F%8E%ACPMC-Wagner---Best-in-Hell---2022-(English-subtitles):6
Oh, and btw, this might be of interest to the bar, those who don’t already know, and not a farthing will go to the coffers of google by checking it out.
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd
Posted by: Dalit | Jan 22 2023 20:59 utc | 86
Bill Smith | Jan 22 2023 20:19 utc | 79
I did read an analysis by a military per son not long back that looked at possible offensives one of which was down the Oskil to trap Ukie forces that are on the current frontlines. That one thought coming down both sides as a possibility. It depends on how long Russia sees this war as lasting but to me the eastern side of the Oskil is the natural defensive position for Russia. It also creates a buffer out from the Luhansk border.
I dont see Russia moving much outside its new borders and operating as an occupation force. Perhaps strikes or buffers but not occupation of hostile territory. Watching Putin for so long, he uses various methods to skin cats depending on the cat.
As yet the vast majority of the volunteer third corp and the three hundred thousand mobilized seem to be held in reserve. It is starting to make me think that although Russia has increased pressure and attrition on all fronts, it may well be waiting for the west's next move.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 22 2023 21:01 utc | 87
@Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 15:31 utc | 19
Thanks for reply.
I agree with your general sentiment in #Apollyon | Jan 22 2023 17:11 utc | 36
"Somebody" want everything to be messed up between Germany and Russland.
That isn't new!
A few months after Postam 1945 Agreement UK and US betrayed Russia (USSR).
A democratic, demilitarized, denazified AND united Germany controlled together by USSR, USA and Germany was the Agreement.
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/potsdam-conference
But USUK definitely don't want a united peacefull Germany to become a land bridge between West Europa and Russia (and Eurasia). They create and fund the "WestGermany" (BRD) as a "honeypot", a success story of Western freedom and social capitalism (the famous "Soziale Marktwirtschaft"), a land of oportunity...
"Wir wollen ein Volk der guten Nachbarn sein" as Willy Brandt said.
Ostpolitik was encouraged by the occupying forces so that the Russians and Germans could honestly believe in it and accept in the end a reunification under the aegis of a democratic, demilitarized and denazified Western Germany
Unfortunatly, since 1989 ( or 1991) such an "honeypot" isn't necessary.
And since 2014,even Merkel was able to believe in Realpolitik for a few years before admitting that she was only a puppet of the theater. Manipulated
Now, they just want their money back.
And, once again, driving German tanks against Russia in Ukraine that your grandfathers have already tried by the way back then with the Melanies and Banderas
Scholz was stupid enough to form an unprincipled coalition in order to become chancellor.
And here he is without power, bound hand and foot, handed over to the American deep state, manipulated by the British, insulted by the Ukrainians and even despised by the Poles.
As for Wagenknecht, it is time to abandon the ship "Die Linke".
As in 1914, "the left" is totally rotten, and soon more militaristic than its ancestors. The French Communist Party is already calling to deliver tanks to Ukraine...
Posted by: Weimar | Jan 22 2023 21:03 utc | 88
I see no moves in the US to build new factories to increase production and no move the educate and train a workforce...
Posted by: dp | Jan 22 2023 20:35 utc | 81
True, but one does not embark on massive investments in new capacity without firm contracts with deliveries planned years or decades in the future. Additionally, the new masters will most likely take over European industrial framework (currently under severe strain) on the cheap and subcontract new production to these newly acquired franchises.
Posted by: Pagan | Jan 22 2023 21:03 utc | 89
“The remains of the no longer elite 46th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of the settlement. Ivanovskoye (Krasnoe), retreating with 300 under fire from the Wagner Group.”
https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1617074467901177857
Recall that some days ago, a group of Azov's were stuck in the outskirts of Klicheevka (S of Bakhmut). According to the report they tried to sneak away from trenches at night but were detected and killed. Seems UAF has been routed S, and even SW settlement of Bakhmut.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2023 21:07 utc | 90
Pagan | Jan 22 2023 20:06 utc | 76
Exactly. I've said the same thing.
10 nato tanks today will be to 100 next month and then surprise, natoids in EU will have 1000 tanks less. The same with every other weapon, a lot more expensive ones. Gherasimov is still confused in Donbass and Belgorod was attacked again today. No surprise he's placing Pantsirs on his head while Bojo is visiting Bucha
Posted by: rk | Jan 22 2023 21:14 utc | 91
Russia owns Ukraine, just like PRC owns Tibet. Tibet has always been China, there is no Tibet! Ukraine has always been Russia, there is no Ukraine! Tibetans and Ukrainians (whatever they are) must serve their natural masters. Xi and Putin will lead this world to true freedom! So, looks like hundreds of Leopard 2 tanks are on their way to occupied Russia. No problem! They will melt in the face of Russian steel! The finest tanks on earth backed by all the most advanced nations will not make any difference to the warriors of Putin's will. His will be done, his kingdom come! (BTW, in eastern Russia, Chinese language teachers are earning 400 percent more than a year ago. Look it up!) Okay, seriously now, last chance. Jail tragic Putin and his lackey's, withdraw from all 1991 Ukraine territory, have democratic elections and systems installed, and Russia can keep the Sevastopol naval base on 2013 terms, with freedom of movement for personal stationed there and uninterrupted supplies of water and power. Otherwise, the safety of the Russian public can no longer be assured. Awake and smell the failure.
Posted by: Ahole | Jan 22 2023 21:15 utc | 92
European countries are ordained to suffer more under the command of NATO and EU, two blocs unique in the world, which are chaperoned by: "Atlantic Council - Shaping the global future together -- The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that galvanizes US global leadership and engagement in partnership with allies and partners." . . .dig that "partnership." . . .and galvanize: "to cause (people) to become so excited or concerned about an issue, idea, etc., that they want to do something about it. an issue that galvanized the public (to take action)"
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 22 2023 21:15 utc | 93
The matter of German-Russian relations is central to plans for multipolarity. For all the crimes of its leaders Europe has much to offer the world and Chinese originated plans for eurasian integration and a revival of the ancient land based trading routes lead logically to trade from the Pacific to the Atlantic, from the South China to the North Sea.
Any settlement after the war which sees Europe and America hived off into an experiment to build imperialism in one country is doomed to fail.
While it is true that the ruling classes of NATO-led by the Ukrainians- have gone out of their way to promote racist russophobia, it is equally true that such nonsense is only effective amongst the brainwashed minorities who constitute the governing class, the media and the ideological brothel politely called the Intellectuals.
Messrs Garton Ash and Snyder, BH Levy and Anne Applebaum might believe that Russians are monsters at the lower end of the evolutionary scale but every autoworker, shop girl and, I would imagine, private soldier, knows better. That has always been the way and those who lament the inaction of the masses need not despair- the fuel for a complete change in relations between nations exists in the form of a population which longs for peace, security and measured development.
All that is needed is a spark. And the precondition for that is the thorough and unmistakable defeat of neoliberal ideology and policies. So long as the basic assumptions behind capitalism from a belief in the inevitability of inequality to the superstition that the market is a better regulator of the economy than conscious democratic planning are unchallenged we will be ruled by those who go along with the ideology in order, like the teenagers surrounding Biden et al, to get along.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 22 2023 21:17 utc | 94
Apollyon@62
I agree that Germany is occupied and brainwashed - but the Americans didn't need to do much brainwashing in relation to the German attitudes toward the East, Serbia or Russia.
Some brainwashing was done, though, through the media. I recall I was among the hardliners then myself, who supported the bombing campaign of NATO 1999 in Serbia. I was a SPIEGEL reader and believed everything in the magazine and on TV - the Serbs were being smeared as the sole perpetrators of every war crime. Many Germans still believe this story, all you need to do is mention Srebreniza. There were journalists in Yugoslavia with access to more authentic information, but it was all filtered to fit the anti-Serbian narrative before the German print media would publish it.
I could not conceive of being lied to, by all the media simultaneously, in such a professional and systematic way - it took the 2014 Ukraine crisis to wake me up, which was possible only owing to to my pro-Russian sentiment. I can draw the following conclusions:
1. If you're a honest person yourself, you find it hard to believe that everyone around you might be lying. (Applies to many Germans)
2. It takes some special event to let you get out from your echo chamber and become open for other interpretations.
3. It is therefore absolutely possible that many Germans are still asleep, like it was the case with me in 1999.
4. There was a well rehearsed media cartell in place in Germany as early as 1999, serving American interests.
Since then, I have been wondering how that media machine can work so reliably and flawlessly, and who coordinates it. The authorized narratives, along with their language rules, ("Putin's war of aggression...") seem to spread out through all the outlets in zero time.
Posted by: grunzt | Jan 22 2023 21:17 utc | 95
In other news.
The "Guardian Newspaper", is a truly unreliable source of any new and/or opinion pieces since foundation day. One who's foreign correspondents(all) should register as foreign agents(gay).
Now claims the situation in country 404 is static all along the entire eastern front. :O
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jan 22 2023 21:19 utc | 96
Posted by: Down South | Jan 22 2023 14:46 utc | 10
It is not worth talking about democracy in Ukraine now. She is not. Zelensky needs to cover the losses, so they catch everyone. It seems that they returned to serfdom, when the pan's thugs were chasing the serfs who were trying to escape to freedom.There are many such situations, just a few go out on social networks.Our source says that the military commissars were given a complete carte blanche for lawlessness, but on one condition, if it does not go public.
This group, which loaded the kid in Odessa like a bag of potatoes, will be slammed for being burned and not keeping track of what they are being filmed. We are waiting for them to start looking for the one who filmed.
The authorities are afraid of publicity, in silence it is easier for them to create chaos.
https://t.me/legitimniy/14608
👩🪖📄🇺🇦In Odessa, men change into women's clothes in order to go grocery shopping and not accidentally go "cannon fodder" to war after receiving a summons
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1617270475494952960
Photo embedded in Tweet
Posted by: Down South | Jan 22 2023 21:22 utc | 97
Economically, Ukraine is fucked. Kievan elite is banking on the delusion that Western officials will turn Ukraine into a liberal country for free after the war for geopolitical reasons but the reality is that, after an armistice will be reached, Western governments will forget about Ukraine and the country will be left at the mercy of BlackRock, IMF and other psychopathic, capitalistic vultures.
European leaders are terrified of dealing with Ukraine in a post-war period and a widespread view that EU will be forced to pick the price tag up, getting little say in the process while Washington and its psycho baltic vassals will reap all of gains.
Posted by: Vampire Kissinger | Jan 22 2023 21:22 utc | 98
I've got a question about Germany. The German government opposes being the first to send tanks to Ukraine. Why? Is this because sending tanks would make the current government impopular? Is this because images of German rolling over the Ukrainian plain bring back memories? Or is this because the German government feels that returning to business as usual with Russia after the war is becoming a rather remote possibility?
Posted by: Passerby | Jan 22 2023 20:55 utc | 84
All three are good reason for Germany not to go. All three are good reason for US to deeply screw Germany.
If Germany "free the Leopard", it's not only a few dozen but in the next weeks probably several hundred from whole Europa. And Germany will have to support and maintain a whole Operation Barbarossa
And probably
# Pagan | Jan 22 2023 20:06 utc | 76 nailed it:
"opportunity to get rid of all the non-US weapons in NATO arsenal. The result is going to be that everybody is going to need new equipment which will have to be ordered from the big brother."
Posted by: Weimar | Jan 22 2023 21:23 utc | 99
In addition. The world's best source of propaganda and lies since foundation day. The British Bullshitting Corporation", Londinium. Continues to promote nothing but lies and assorted failed conspiracy theories as usual about country 404. Along with many other unrelated countries in this world.
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jan 22 2023 21:26 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Heavy fighting is going on for Gulyai Pole in Zaporozhye Oblast. Gulyai Pole - which apparently changed hands no less than 16 times during the Russian Civil War - is vital to the Ukranazis to prevent their Donbass forces from being outflanked from the south.
Meanwhile Wagner has entered Artëmovsk and is inside the southern portion of the city (the opposite side from Soledar). And according to a map posted on Telegram citing the Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov, they're in the eastern part of the city as well and making a thrust towards Chasov Yar, which is west of Artëmovsk and if taken would make it impossible for the Ukranazis to hold the city.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 22 2023 13:39 utc | 1