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January 1, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-02
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RF force take out a drone warehouse and, the Russian military destroyed a warehouse of artillery ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region, as well as a mobile airspace surveillance radar and an American an AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic. In just one day, it was possible to hit 68 enemy artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 102 districts.
https://ria.ru/20230101/spetsoperatsiya-1842731622.html
The Western propaganda as usual calling it a strike on civilians
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 1 2023 13:51 utc | 1
Happy New Year Barflies. Due to late night reveling I am still a little fuzzy, but what remains on my mind is Hollande piggybacking on Merkel’s statements regarding Minsk II. Something major is happening with that behind the scenes.
I still think there was (and still is) some heavy duty lobbying (blackmail) by the World Police but Hollande seemed to set the stage by pointing a finger at the Americans from behind his back.
Posted by: chunga | Jan 1 2023 13:52 utc | 2
One should always assume that these so called “mercenaries” are actually Nato troops, disguised as mercenaries I certainly do.
“Acting head of the Lugansk People’s Republic Leonid Pasechnik noted a more blatant participation of NATO in the conflict on Donbass. In an interview with TASS, he said that this is manifested in particular, by “the amount of weapons supplied [by NATO countries] to the territory of Ukraine.”
On Friday, an officer of the People’s Militia of the LPR, Andrey Marochko, told TASS that the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces sent detachments consisting of foreigners armed with NATO-style weapons to the cities of Artemovsk and Soledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Talking to TASS, Pasechnik also reiterated that thousands of mercenaries from more than 50 countries are fighting in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the zone of Russia’s special military operation.
“The situation at the front is complicated by the fact that today we are fighting not only with the Ukrainian army: there are many foreign mercenaries and instructors in the ranks of the enemy. We know that thousands of mercenaries from more than 50 countries are fighting in the ranks of the Ukrainian Nazis, mainly from Eastern Europe. Some of them have been fighting against Donbass since 2014.”
https://tass.com/politics/1558303
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 1 2023 13:57 utc | 3
Here we are 1st of january 23 most of us have survived this unprovoked war against Russia, sadly alot didn’t.
Anyone know what happens next ?
I’ll tell you, Vladimir Putin is going to do exactly what he said he would do in the beginning, thankfully
(he’s a man of his word) he will go further not out of choice but nessesty due to the escalation by the west.
De-nazify Uqraine and demilterise Uqraine.
Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 1 2023 14:10 utc | 4
@chunga
I too found baffling first Markel’s comments, and then Hollande’s.
1- It was a clear favor to president Putin’s narrative. The Russians knew that the West was “stealing for time”,
and they too use the time to prepare for the coming war.
2- There was a clear intention to back stab the US, even if the two politicians are not anymore
in command of their political parties. It was done with EU permission.
3- There is the “beginning” of an anti-american sentiment in the “Garden” leadership, and we
will se how much it will be translated in people protest in the coming months, because 2023
will be tougher than the previous year.
Posted by: lsammart | Jan 1 2023 14:18 utc | 5
@lsammart
Why now is the question stuck in my head. This *could* provide some running room for others to openly criticize the World Police. Hollande’s swipe was aimed at the Americans for not doing enough to “protect” them. Perhaps it’s sinking in that the Americans can talk the talk but are simply unable to walk the walk.
Kicking them out of Europe would benefit *everyone* so that’s what I’m hoping for.
Posted by: chunga | Jan 1 2023 14:36 utc | 6
Ukrainian Minister of Defence Reznikov writes a begging letter to Santa. Literally.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/39600
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 14:46 utc | 7
@chunga | Jan 1 2023 13:52 utc | 2
Happy New Year Barflies. Due to late night reveling I am still a little fuzzy, but what remains on my mind is Hollande piggybacking on Merkel’s statements regarding Minsk II. Something major is happening with that behind the scenes.
Happy New Year! I think it is a desperate move based on delusional thinking that if they can prove to the Russian population that “Putin” was fooled by the Minsk I & II lies as stated by Merkel and Hollande, his government will be discredited and the ‘west’ gets their regime change. Obviously, the outcome will be ‘different’.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 14:53 utc | 8
The Battle of Bakhmut is the key to the Donbas. When Bakhmut falls, the Russians will quickly take all of the Donbas.
Soon the ground will freeze solid. Starting Jan. 7th (by the latest Donesk City weather forecast) the ground will start to freeze. With solid ground heavy equipment will be able to better transverse the terrain. Expect major moves from either side around Jan. 12 and after.
Posted by: young | Jan 1 2023 14:55 utc | 9
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 14:46 utc | 7
Everyone knows Santa is Russian VDV and rides BMD (not infantry BTR like in that video clip few weeks back).
So Ukies are getting gifts from Santa for sure, just not the one they would like.
Posted by: Abe | Jan 1 2023 14:57 utc | 10
Followup & comment re post by @ Summary | Jan 1 2023 12:48 utc | 116 in previous Ukraine Thread …
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
355 airplanes,
199(+1) helicopters,
2,779(+23) unmanned aerial vehicles,
399 air defense missile systems,
7,350(+37) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
957(+3) combat vehicles equipped with MRLS,
3,756(+10) field artillery cannons and mortars,
7,859(+32) units of special military equipment.
Comment:
Significant serial daily destruction of AFU indirect fire support assets continues into the ninth day.
Highly significant increase in AFV destruction in only 24hrs.
Highly significant increase in logistic, transport & support vehicles destruction in only 24hrs.
Destruction fires targeting immediate rear areas of FEBA, especially Main Supply Routes(MSRs) ? Severing or critically reducing logistical supply & reinforcement/replacements, preparatory to major or multiple combined arms assaults on increasingly unsupported weakened & progressively attrited entrenched AFU formations ?
The last 24hrs is indicative of yet a further escalation in destructive fires & broader preparatory or localized offensive ops by RF, over & above the already sustained higher ops intensity & higher rates of destruction (Direct & indirect) over last 9 days.
For 9 days now RF has been aggressively targeting, destroying & neutralizing AFU indirect Fire Support assets. Continual & increasing rates of destruction of AFVs & logistic/transport/support vehicles of all kinds. Critical shortages of shells, mortar rounds & rockets are now the least of the AFUs worries.
Total destructive losses over only last nine(9) days, alone:
88 artillery/MBLRS/Mortars, (Equivalent total loss of ~15 FULL strength Artillery Batteries).
184 armored fighting vehicles, (Equivalent total loss of 4+ FULL strength Tank or Mech BNs, or an Armored BDE(+).
~172 logistic/transport/support vehicles. Irreplaceable. Crippling re affected formations.
The concurrent MIA/WIA over the same period will also be significant, and rapidly increasing alongside materiel losses, likely now up to BN+ to 2xBN (BDE(-)) per/day (~1200-1600+ KIA per day + WIA(~3600-4800+)) …
These rapidly increasing daily loss rates of personnel & materiel given current state of AFU are not being even minimally sufficiently replaced. Unsustainable.
Should these materiel & personnel loss rates continue at this rate or further accelerate, AFU formations, the Army, given current status, after 10 months or severe attrition/materiel destruction, faces functional oncoming literal collapse.
IE by end January total cumulative materiel losses of above (~5 week period) = x4+. (60+ full Batteries, 5+ FULL strength Armored/Mech Brigades)
The New Year, even merely January 2023, does not augur well for the AFU …
2- There was a clear intention to back stab the US
lsammart | Jan 1 2023 14:18 utc | 5
Most likely they know relations with Russia are broken and will remain broken for many many years so they all reveal themselves as great undercover nato warriors, more or less real. They want to make it look like team work, not that US decides everything for them. It also works with the idea that Ukr is winning because nato so great. Macaron also talked about Ukr winning something, not clear what is this “winning”. So it’s the opposite of what you think, it’s butt kissing
Posted by: rk | Jan 1 2023 15:08 utc | 12
@Norwegian
Alex Christoforou was thinking the same thing yesterday. I don’t know, that angle seems so desperate. To me it only bolsters Putin’s decision, after trying and trying, to finally abandon diplomacy and attack their sorry asses.
Posted by: chunga | Jan 1 2023 15:09 utc | 13
@Abe | Jan 1 2023 14:57 utc | 10
Everyone knows Santa is Russian VDV and rides BMD (not infantry BTR like in that video clip few weeks back).
So Ukies are getting gifts from Santa for sure, just not the one they would like.
I had to look up BMD, and it seems you are correct: BMD stands for Boyevaya Mashina Desanta (Боевая Машина Десанта).
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 15:09 utc | 14
Happy New Year! I think it is a desperate move based on delusional thinking that if they can prove to the Russian population that “Putin” was fooled by the Minsk I & II lies as stated by Merkel and Hollande, his government will be discredited and the ‘west’ gets their regime change. Obviously, the outcome will be ‘different’.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 14:53 utc | 8
Perhaps, although I’d have expected an attempt to undermine Putin that would not also have acknowledged Ukraine’s role as aggressor.
Posted by: David Levin | Jan 1 2023 15:09 utc | 15
@ Abe | Jan 1 2023 14:57 utc | 10
So Ukies are getting gifts from Santa for sure, just not the one they would like.
Indeed, ’tis true.
Grandfather Frost(Santa Claus) is visiting the Special Military Operation zone… He wishes everyone a good 2023 and also brought something for those who were naughty this year.
My thoughts on on recent Minsk revelations.
There are rumors some in Ukrainian military are thinking of deposing Zelensky and installing someone willing to negotiate a surrender while Ukraine still exists.
Now, the US and UK will do anything to prevent that.
Including issuing directives to former puppet leaders to leak confidential information that ALL diplomatic efforts are in bad faith and counter-productive.
This will poison the well for Putin and any negotiations he has planned as all hard-liners in Russia now have verifiable proof of what they suspected all along and will never allow any further peace talks.
Posted by: Mar man | Jan 1 2023 15:21 utc | 18
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 14:53 utc | 8
I suspect you err. Merkel is the Western leader with most personal contact to Putin over many years. She speaks fluent Russian.
Scholz and others – in DC no doubt – know they have no interlocutor trusted by The Kremlin. Erdogan plays a role but Russia has no historical reason to trust Turkey.
Europe has no backchannels. USA has no backchannels.
Merkel has simply refused to take part in any negotiations by exposing how such negotiations were used last time around. It was DC that nixed Minsk Agreements and Normandy Format…….it was US that wanted to obstruct any independent European foreign policy…….
US has left no exit. France and Germany have been obstructed by USA which is what Hollande and Merkel just confirmed. Berlusconi is no longer aligned with Meloni.
There is NO EXIT. Russia will make facts on the ground. Russia and China and N Korea KNOW there is no security without WAR
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 1 2023 15:22 utc | 19
young @ 9
Just checked the weather. In Fahrenheit. Currently 45 degrees in Donetsk. Tomorrow and Tuesday to reach a high of 50, or 10 to all non-Americans. Three days of freezing near end of ten day forecast do not mean much. Entirely possible there is no hard freeze this winter.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 1 2023 15:37 utc | 20
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 15:09 utc | 14
I was thinking more along the lines Santa being airborne hence choice of equipment, it didn’t occurred me that word play in “deSanta”. Seems that this joke just keeps on giving.
Very good observation, sir!
Posted by: Abe | Jan 1 2023 15:42 utc | 21
Currently 45 degrees in Donetsk. Tomorrow and Tuesday to reach a high of 50, or 10 to all non-Americans.
General Winter has been demoted to Private.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 1 2023 15:37 utc | 20
Hovering below and above 0 celcius will mean that water will freeze, then it will melt and turn into mud, then it might freeze again and turn into thin ice on top of mud, then melt again, turn into more thin ice layers, etc. That’s one likely scenario for winter. That’s a very typical average winter in Ukraine, in Dnepropetrovsk you get the coldest, in the Kiev second coldest, at best they can stay a bit at freezing the whole time.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2023 16:03 utc | 23
No one knows what is coming or how it will end – with a whimper, a bang, or anywhere in between.
Happy New Year to b and the bar flies. 2022 was an extraordinary year when the veil fell of the face of Empire of Lies and the gloves came off for Zone B. If truth is light, then 2022 revealed the creepy crawlies that dwell in dark places.
Let us see what gifts the New Year brings.
Posted by: Moses22 | Jan 1 2023 16:09 utc | 24
Given the admissions of bad faith by Merkel and Hollande.
String the Russians along with lies and false assurances.
They were were working for US interests not Ukrainian ones.
Now those plans have failed utterly.
And a protracted slog ensued.
Doesn’t do much for relationships between Europe and Russia post bellum.
All European credibility/relevance is gone worldwide.
Result Morons.
Posted by: jpc | Jan 1 2023 16:32 utc | 25
I suspect part of reason for Russia being in Belorus is to be in position to act on Poland if Poland should get any ideas.
Putin expresses disaapoint at the betrayal by representatives of his “partners” in the west – his “friend” Merkle most deeply. His attitude is dillusional – he should realize and accept responsibility for wasting time on NPCs. Point is he needs to be more realistic.
Posted by: jared | Jan 1 2023 16:34 utc | 26
Oddly it is the Orthodox Christmas on 6/7 January – about the same time as it is forecast to freeze.
It may be an interesting next 5 or 6 days, as I suspect things will start to happen on or after the 8th – when a blizzard sets in and around the battlefields followed by a period of cold, clear weather with hard ground.
That gives maybe 6 to 8 weeks of winter proper before it gets muddy again.
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 1 2023 16:53 utc | 27
Both sides are playing politics the Minsk 2 charade. The citizens of the DPR and LPR were the ones being played.
So the current spin is that:
Russia: The west is not agreement capable.
US/NATO: Putin is naive and/or incompetent.
Obviously it did not take Russia 7+ years to realize that the Ukrainian government and their sponsors in the US/EU had no intention of making the Constitutional reforms that they had agreed to.
Recall that the original referendums in DPR/LPR were for autonomy, not to become part of Russia. So Russia showed them what autonomy looks like, with minimal military support and humanitarian support. Realpolitik eventually took hold.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 1 2023 16:57 utc | 28
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 1 2023 16:53 utc | 27
It’s possible that the permanent part of winter is starting now in Ukraine too. Here in north part of EUvassal empire we are set for a gradual decline to permanently frozen -5 high to -15 C at least till mid of January and maybe beyond. These things can change quickly though.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2023 17:00 utc | 29
”
The art here is helping Putin understand that he’s lost this round, and it’s time to fold this hand,” Kagan said. “We have to persuade him that this approach, this military approach, is done, and he cannot other than continue to lose here. He’s not there yet, and we need to help the Ukrainians get him there as quickly as possible.”
From the BBC.
It occurs to me that maybe trying to convince Russia has lost may be a way of saying that they can’t show Russia its losing.
Weak sauce guys. You’ll never get the blessings of the war God with this please stop fighting BS.
Get your shit together Nato/Ukraine.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 1 2023 17:14 utc | 30
People are misinterpreting admissions by Merkel and Hollande. They are just shielding themselves from personal criticisms and winning political points by going along with the current thing. I don’t think either of them were looking forward (insofar as they’re ‘leaders’ with a ‘forward thinking’ approach – which they’re demonstrably not) to a NATO-Russia showdown. They were and remain nobodies, doing what they are told.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 1 2023 17:17 utc | 31
Hollande and Merkels remarks do give creedence to Putins claims to the Russian population that the West are incorrigible liars. If I was choreographing this conflict and Putin needed to whip up his for all out war, this is what I would do.
Posted by: oubok | Jan 1 2023 17:19 utc | 32
More death. More destruction. More rationalizations of this stupid War that Putin launched. More wrong predictions about the course of the War.
Millions of refugees. Tens of thousands dead. A war that does not appear to be winnable.
The denial here is amazing.
Posted by: NoWar | Jan 1 2023 17:21 utc | 33
Also, Putin was aware of this full well. His rapid efforts to modernize the military speak far more than any ‘we’ve been duped by dishonest negotiators’ line. He’s just capitalizing on their admissions of dishonesty for the internal Russian public. This will marginalize any supporters of the West even further, making it a completely untenable position to hold, and Putin will finally get a creeping purge of the alleged liberals in the establishment.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 1 2023 17:22 utc | 34
To all a good night! I have link in my bookmarks to the NASA sat view of 404 at night. It is chilling to scroll through night by night. This may have been posted here before if so apologies. The link:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=12.132689222667999,37.98137616689427,48.25716912441951,61.275274085192756&l=Reference_Labels_15m,Coastlines_15m(opacity=0.59),VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_At_Sensor_Radiance,VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_AtSensor_M15(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden)&lg=true&t=2022-10-30-T04%3A00%3A00Z
Posted by: KlutchKargo | Jan 1 2023 17:30 utc | 35
For Russia, the Ukraine war is an internal war first and an external war second. The country reached a position where having half of the establishment as nationalists and the other half as globalists was completely untenable if it was going to retain any sort of coherent policy vis-a-vis a confrontational West.
But it was impossible to get rid of the globalists without discrediting them. The pro-Western sentiment was very strong among the business, academia and artistic elites, even despite the 2014 coup and all the ensuing hostility and sanctions. But now the West has finally driven the Russian globalists into a corner from which there is no escape – and the Russian federation can mature from a split-identity ‘hydra’ into a coherent nation state. Winning the external war should finalize that process.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 1 2023 17:30 utc | 36
Posted by: NoWar | Jan 1 2023 17:21 utc | 33
You’re projecting.
Wake up.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Jan 1 2023 17:33 utc | 37
@NoWar
What you say is all very regrettable but if Russia were to relinquish or move back to observe some other border lines to conform to the western “rules based order”, US/NATO would only move closer. The pattern is well established. Some lines need to be red.
Posted by: chunga | Jan 1 2023 17:33 utc | 38
@35
The Depopulation of ukraine is part of the plan. Some other people have plans on (re?)colonizing it.
Russia stays away from kiev, Zelenskys tribe mates have an old claim to it. Too bad for the Slavic people who been there for a thousand years.
That blackness is part of Putins deal with his fellow swamp dwellers.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 1 2023 17:38 utc | 39
Posted by: NoWar | Jan 1 2023 17:21 utc | 33
More death. More destruction. More rationalizations of this stupid War that Putin launched. More wrong predictions about the course of the War.
Millions of refugees. Tens of thousands dead. A war that does not appear to be winnable.
The denial here is amazing.
Stop resisting, you just make things worse. It is time for you to surrender.
Posted by: hopehely | Jan 1 2023 17:40 utc | 40
Ukraine has always been Russia, just like Tibet has always been China!!! They will submit or die, along with their silly religious beliefs! Serve the PRC!!!
Posted by: Ahole | Jan 1 2023 17:41 utc | 41
NoWar@33…. there is no war, so there is nothing to win …maybe you missed it …SMO….denazify demilitarize Ukraine and by default NATO…..gives us an idea of what win is….that way we’ll all be in on the joke when it’s over….
Cheers M
We got WEF Nazi infested western governments living high on exceptional delusions….and you wait for Russia to win? Ukraine to win? Winners? WTF is that?
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2023 17:45 utc | 42
Russia stays away from kiev, Zelenskys tribe mates have an old claim to it. Too bad for the Slavic people who been there for a thousand years.
That blackness is part of Putins deal with his fellow swamp dwellers.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 1 2023 17:38 utc | 39
Recall that the center of the original Khazarian Kaganate was well east of Kiev in the .area from the Caspian Sea to Crimea. It briefly included Kiev. So Russia would do well to keep them as far west as possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khazars
From the Wiki:
The ruling stratum, like that of the later Činggisids within the Golden Horde, was a relatively small group that differed ethnically and linguistically from its subject peoples, meaning the Alano-As and Oğuric Turkic tribes, who were numerically superior within Khazaria. The Khazar Qağans, while taking wives and concubines from the subject populations, were protected by a Khwârazmian guard corps, or comitatus, called the Ursiyya. But unlike many other local polities, they hired soldiers (mercenaries).
Some things never change 😉
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 1 2023 17:59 utc | 43
Imagine being on holiday in Kiev staying in a swank hotel new years rolling in, then kaboom, an entire corner disappears in a cloud of dust, never thought for a moment popping a champagne bottle cork would be so dangerous but then traveling ain’t all it’s cracked up to be anymore. Pity anyone working on their English staying on that side of the building.
Bit of a, cheers and happy boo year!
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2023 18:04 utc | 44
You think Europe has a refugee problem now, just wait a few months as Russia escalates to the ‘desolation’ stage of peace. The Great Satan/NATO war in Ukraine shows clearly that Europe is not a union of democracies, but a clusterfuck of cucks for for-profit Empire run by the elephants in the room.
If Russia loses, the world loses.
Posted by: gottlieb | Jan 1 2023 18:07 utc | 45
Perhaps Merkel and Hollande are coming clean for a role in a future negotiation with Russia? Would admitting their duplicity not, in some sense, clear the air from the Russian perspective for their former roles?
They are Europe’s elder statesmen now. The current crop of leaders are just someone else’s messenger boys. Who else could negotiate if there were to be negotiations?
Perhaps I’m being overly positive this new year’s day? : )
Posted by: bobzibub | Jan 1 2023 18:23 utc | 47
Politicians are such weasels with their weasel words.
but it looks like Macron may be going off the reservation.
As others have said, the popular support of EU leaders (cucks, all) has suffered immensely.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jan 1 2023 18:23 utc | 48
Strelkov today quoting Prigozhin (Mr. Wagner):
“We will win this year, but first we will defeat our internal bureaucracy and corruption. And when we defeat the internal bureaucracy and corruption, then we will defeat the Ukrainians, and NATO, and the whole world.”
I will not comment on the president’s speech at all, but the sensational speech of Mr. Prigozhin, who decided to act as a “fighter against bureaucracy and corruption,” I cannot but accompany with the following musical number .
I can’t tell where Strelkov’s approval ends and sarcasm begins. AFAIK Strelkov does frequently rail against “bureaucracy and corruption” as well. However, I suspect he regards Prigohzin as a product and participant of said bureaucracy and corruption. I know I do. The Blackwater-ish Wagner organization makes me squeamish. I’d rather the Russians be above such things.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Jan 1 2023 18:34 utc | 49
It doesn’t look like it’ll be a cold winter. But it can be colder in March, the weather in Europe isn’t like before. The large offensive idea appeared in MSM, also saying that Russia can’t fight if the ground isn’t frozen. MSM then said that Russia can’t fight in cold weather at all, waiting for summer. Everyday they try to explain how is Ukr winning. When they said Russia will take Ukr in 2 days was just to invent something that Russia “failed” to do. Now they’ll say Russia can’t do offensives, they’re losing, Zely will invade Moscow soon. Send more money, don’t wash.
Posted by: rk | Jan 1 2023 18:35 utc | 50
Both Merkle and Hollands phones were tapped by the US. I think that was made public with the Smowden info. Neither said anything about it publicly at the time. Payback. What they have now said publicly Lets the entire world know it was only Putin and Russia that tried to bring peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
Since 2014/15, US began its attack on China so the Chinese public realises the US is not its friend which makes it easier for the Chinese leadership to support China. The world has also seen US supporting ISIS and assorted terrorists in Syria and stealing Syrian oil – basically annexing Syria’s oil fields. In the intervening years since 2014, the US has thrown away any pretense of a figleaf and is now openly doing what it has always done covertly.
For Russia, it would have been much harder if not impossible to create the multi-polar world back in 2014. It may well have found itself largely isolated in the would if it had charged into Ukraine all guns blazing back then.
Those who critisize Russia for not doing that are fools. With what Merkle and Holland have now said, the world knows that Putin gave peace every chance before resorting to military force.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 1 2023 18:44 utc | 51
Mark : What will happen next? Nato will roll out its next tier of toys, centered around the Bradley as well as counterdrone tech. Russia os not going to win this.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Jan 1 2023 18:56 utc | 52
The Western propaganda as usual calling it a strike on civilians
Republicofscotland | Jan 1 2023 13:51 utc | 1
***
You need to turn that stuff off, it’ll rot your brain. And might give you hairy palms, too.
Happy New Year 2023 — Good Luck! We need some luck.
Posted by: Spanky | Jan 1 2023 18:57 utc | 53
I think boo comes closest to the mark re Merkel and Hollande. Myself, I think they’re aping Pompeo’s “We lie, we cheat, we steal” attitude. They believe that because they’re the good guys, they aren’t bound by any notion of decency.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 1 2023 19:04 utc | 54
B previously said Merkel’s just burnishing anti-Putin credentials. That may be. If it is, it speaks to the problems of analysis he also just wrote about because while it will play well in the west, how will it play in the rest of the world? A year ago Germany only had to have an agreement with Russia for all its energy needs. Now it will need a bunch of them, with all sorts of countries (many with complications). Perhaps its not the best idea to brag about lying and giving Russia and China the quotes to discuss with the rest of the planet?
Posted by: Lex | Jan 1 2023 19:05 utc | 55
@ Peter AU1 | Jan 1 2023 18:44 utc | 51
Since 2014/15, US began its attack on China . . .
China broke a major US spy ring/operation back in 2010, reportedly killing or imprisoning 18-20 CIA sources from 2010-2012, and shared subsequent incriminating intelligence with Russia. Obama’s Pivot to Asia and Xi’s ascension and attendant anti-corruption campaign soon followed.
Posted by: majoab | Jan 1 2023 19:07 utc | 56
@ Lex @ 19:05 utc
For the European wannabe-Übermensch (hiding behind Uncle Sam’s coattails, the third world Unkraut exists to be exploited and plowed under when the Unkraut grows too high. I doubt they care what the ROW thinks as long as there are pliant comprador elites in those countries.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 1 2023 19:10 utc | 57
Incompetence for 10+ months now. When will the Yes-men here admit the failure of russian operation? This is not even funny anymore.
Civilians killed and injured as Kiev shells Donbass – officials
Ukrainian troops have ramped up attacks on residential areas amid New Year celebrations
https://swentr.site/russia/569264-donbass-civilians-ukrainian-shelling/
Posted by: ZCanon | Jan 1 2023 19:19 utc | 59
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/01/europe/putin-ukraine-war-shift-europe-security-intl-cmd/index.html
Reading this guy’s Bio sketch he seems like a classic deep state mouthpiece…
Interesting mirror projecting narrative signaling. The end is nigh.
Posted by: Clif | Jan 1 2023 19:19 utc | 60
i mostly concur with boo’s overview and with lex… thanks you 2…
from slavyangard telegram.. what is interesting is the projection on the part of the west onto russia here..
“Russia does not intend to give up its main goal—establishing control over Ukraine,”Stoltenberg said in an interview with the BBC.”
meaning – usa-nato does not intend to give up its main goal-establishing control over ukraine… that is how projection works…
“The war will be protracted; Russia is preparing an offensive; its goal is to take control of all of Ukraine.” —NATO Secretary General
“We must be prepared for a long journey because, as you noticed, Russia does not intend to give up its main goal—establishing control over Ukraine,”Stoltenberg said in an interview with the BBC.
According to him, the mobilization carried out in Russia indicates that the Russian Federation will go on the offensive again.
Posted by: james | Jan 1 2023 19:21 utc | 61
@ZCanon | Jan 1 2023 19:19 utc | 59
Incompetence for 10+ months now. When will the Yes-men here admit the failure of russian operation? This is not even funny anymore.
Try some practical competence then:
Scott Ritter – Zelenski is Operating off a Hollywood Movie.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 19:22 utc | 62
majoab | Jan 1 2023 19:07 utc | 56
Everybody spies on everybody else. Sometimes they get caught sometimes they don’t. All part of the game. I have the impression that may in China felt the US would not attack them due to trade links. Trade locks them together like Siamese twins. No doubt there are still some in China who think that way, both business and within government but I think now many more Chinese realize US will risk destroying itself in trying to destroy China.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 1 2023 19:23 utc | 63
3 million Ukraine refugees in Russia and my guess is that they are a plus for Russia and if they got back home it’ll still be Russia, much better than the cess pool of the Ukraine. 4 million in Europe, that’ll be a net positive as they’ll be Europeans in a generation unlike the Africans who will take generation’s and may never fit in, they mostly haven’t yet. The Ukraine won’t have an economy to go back to and the European economies will be in the tank for a generation unlikely ever to be what they were before Thatcher. The US will continue to try and fail at running the world for another generation consigning the working classes in the treadmill to the bottom. Wish this wasn’t happening on my watch in Canada but it’s at least fixable with better management which I see no sign of.
Posted by: Bob | Jan 1 2023 19:24 utc | 64
Re: Norwegian | Jan 1 2023 14:53 utc | 8
“I suspect you err. Merkel is the Western leader with most personal contact to Putin over many years. She speaks fluent Russian.”
I believe Merkel speaks only grade-school level Russian.
Posted by: James B | Jan 1 2023 19:26 utc | 65
New strikes?
https://s2.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/1january2023_Ukraine_map.jpg
Russia is striking afu targets over all ukraine, not energy infrastructure.
Analysis: ukraine pulled AD from its military to guard energy, now the barracks or supplies of the afu are being targeted. It might help that they have the power going to it now, even if it’s all under shelter(ahem put your bombers into sheds Russia. And use use extra sheds to keep them guessing. Your welcome)
I’m detecting an upswing in Russian smartness and a downswing in Ukrainian morale/capabilities.
Also Russia seems to be souring on its planes and tanks and accepting the need to master drones and high precision targeting. I guess the old hide bounds generals are mostly dead now. Probably a blessing in disguise.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 1 2023 19:32 utc | 66
Also the Merkle and Hollande statements let the world know that negotiated settlement with the empire of lies is a waste of time. This will be settled militarily. Both statements have come as Russia is engaged in a military buildup in its SMO forces that may well turn into a major offensive in the Donbas.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 1 2023 19:35 utc | 67
Much like the Représentant en mission of the French Revolution, the Political Commissars of the Soviets, the Schutzstaffel (SS) of the Germans and ISIS or Taliban of the Islamic world, the Europeans are terrified of the Taliban of the WEF. Merkel is just making sure she is seen as loyal servant otherwise she might get the sudden death treatment.
One has to give credit where it’s due, the US is very astute in creating and propping up political extremists, domestically and abroad. By simultaneously creating a victim and superiority complex you get a nutjob willing to murder, terrorise and die for the ‘cause’. Give them extraordinary funding, a promised utopia and a fictional enemy and you’ve created your own SS.
The WEF Taliban and the Ukrainian Taliban are an intransigent enemy.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | Jan 1 2023 19:39 utc | 68
Neofeudalfuture | Jan 1 2023 19:32 utc | 66
That old say about war plans – they may not survive the first battle. Russia was remiss in not having many small mil spec drones, but US plans for fighting a big arrow invasion and then insurgency warfare got turned on its head by Russia implementing a fixed line artillery war similar to WWI. What Russia has is flexibility and the ability to learn quickly and change as needed. Every war is different. US with its near trillion dollar military cannot even produce artillery shells.
Russia seems to have invested heavily in the upper end stuff, missile forces, special forces ect but it is becoming clear regular forces need to be equipped just as well as the special forces.
Small surveillance and targeting drones along with loitering munitions is the war of today and Russia has the ability to swing into production very quickly.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 1 2023 19:50 utc | 69
Merkel is just making sure she is seen as loyal servant otherwise she might get the sudden death treatment.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | Jan 1 2023 19:39 utc | 68
They come across to me as explaining themselves to their betters too. They want to defend their past deceptions, their loyal service.
Clearly the effect is a gift to the Russians too, confirms their narrative, but I don’t think that is why Merkel/Hollande are doing it.
Merkel has always seemed to be mostly good at taking care of Merkel. Sort of a german Fauci.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 1 2023 19:56 utc | 70
@Lex
The European powers don’t think the rest of the world matters,and that their economic might and alleged cultural, ‘moral’ and technological superiority mean that the rest of the world will just accept their reasons, or rather that no justfications are required because they aren’t bound by any constraints (being morally superior) in the first place.
It is a poor aping of America, whose leadership understands, or at least used to understand, that ‘power comes out of the barrel of a gun’ as Mao said, and I’d add ‘and Hollywood’ to that quote. America has/had the might and they had a narrative to sell, so the world could look past Americas many faults and falsehoods, and for many decades.
Europe has neither, and it will be a rude awakening when one day they realize that the empires of China, India, Saudi Arabia and whatnot consider them little more than an open air museum and playground. The likes of Hollande will probably be waiting tables for the Gulf princes, but by that point it will be far too late to change course.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 1 2023 19:58 utc | 71
Here’s a rather good video explaining how Russians are destroying rest of ukie air defense system. They used the decoy drones and decoy rockets with special “lens” to reflect an image of phantom rockets, aircraft and missiles. Ukraine apparently lost 4 S-300 systems (either launchers or radars) on December 29th.
USA will not be able to restore integrity of ukie air defense systems and it’s only matter of time Russian aviation can be used at full capacity against Nato communication lines and HQs in Ukraine, at which point the game is over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixlWr903ErE
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2023 20:00 utc | 72
While we are taking down statues of our first Prime Minister, the Ukrainian community in Edmonton have statues of Roman Shukhevych, head of the wartime Ukrainian insurgent army, alleged to have killed 100k Poles and Jews as well as the 14th Waffen SS Division which was manned by Ukrainians. I wonder who we are supporting in Canada. Ukraine’s suppression of the Russian language is inimical to our policy of official bilingualism, strongly supported by our present PM’s father when he was Prime Minister.
Posted by: Michael Price | Jan 1 2023 20:28 utc | 73
I’m a woman who is, shall we say, “socially adept.” Merkel’s expressionless face reminds me of the equally expressionless face of Chinese leader Xi. It’s a poker face. She hides her cards. Others barflies may disagree, but I don’t think Merkel responds at the typical times. She watches other people speak or laugh, and then responds with a little delay. She waits to process what others are doing, then chooses her own response. She doesn’t mime other people like a jr. high kid, but doesn’t go first, either.
If I were at a cocktail party and saw her on the other side of the room, I’d avoid her. Like a hawk, I’d watch her, too. Women like Merkel are socially manipulative. Their agenda is self-promotion. Always.
Truly, you can see it in her face.
@ Johnycomelately | Jan 1 2023 19:39 utc | 68
Merkel is just making sure she is seen as loyal servant otherwise she might get the sudden death treatment.
War Hawkier than thou is a thing these days. So, Merkel and Hollande deceived us earlier, but this time they tell the truth. Deceive me once, shame on you, deceive me twice, shame on me.
Posted by: ? | Jan 1 2023 20:30 utc | 75
Learning from Brian Berletic’s lesson.
Looking at the “front-line” (a bit of a misnomer), it appears the Russians are hitting the backup first.
ie. Bakhmut; behind all those blue “trenches” marked on maps there are several lines of defense. The furthest out are the HIMARS (70 km range). Who cover all those sections nearer to the front. Closer in come the artillery (20km-40 range), then the Tank layer, (10 km). Mortars and smaller hand held missiles. Finally the troops themselves (3-4 km range of fire).
So to have a breakthrough you need to take out the whole sequence, – from the back. This I think is what is happening at the moment. The Russian command are now hitting the supply and repair posts, the new incoming NATO forces, the electricity grid, and the transport infrastructure. They are methodically hollowing out the Ukrainian forces, before embarking on a major advance. (Having weakened the electricity grids and means of damage repair thatn the Ukrainians had)
*
When the Russians decide to make a move, the “front-line fodder” can retreat, BUT there will not be any covering fire from artillery and HIMARS etc. So any second line of defense will be already more vulnerable than the first. The “grand roll-up”.
**
Date; The Russians are ALSO very adept in mud. Their Tanks have wider tracks and are lighter than those now coming in from NATO. (Abrams, Leopards). The “Hard frozen ground” was originally mentioned by western “Analysts” as a reason that the Russians would ONLY attack in mid-winter. I am suspicious of this “fact”. They will move when the flattening is completed to their satisfaction, and before the latest military hardware/men from the west can arrive in sufficiently large numbers to make a difference.
**
Drones; The Russians may have a quantitive advantage that they are using. But no situation remains static in a war. This is another motive to carefully time any advance they expect to make. ie Sooner rather than later, and having hollowed out the centre there is not much that will be able to stop them. How far they go will be a political choice.
The Stollenberg is expired but I picked up a nice round French brie for 82p not yet smelly. Merkel and Hollande are surely making internal political points that the current leadership of their countries are brainless dupes of US fascism.
Posted by: Giyane | Jan 1 2023 20:31 utc | 77
PS to my 76.
Hard frozren ground was supposedly necessary for a “traditional all together now” Russian Tank attack. Sort of WWII style gung-ho. The way that Tanks and drones and artillery are being used at the moment precludes any such idiocy.
They WILL use tanks for breakthroughs, but their present set-up of military formations makes each group much more coherent as a fighting unit, and with more firepower, than the “all across the front” US inspired system, which uses specialized regiments to fill gaps.
(Also thanks to Brian Berletic)
“…I believe Merkel speaks only grade-school level Russian.” James B@65
Whereas Putin is fluent in German. That is where the mistake originated-the pair did not need interpreters because Putin spoke German.
Michael Price@73
What you tell us is truly shocking. But it is true of Canada generally. I recently saw a car with two OUN black/red flags passing through our village. The level of historical illiteracy- much of it sponsored by governments anxious to avoid communal tensions- is unusually high. The facts about Ukrainian nationalism are hard to avoid, as are the realities of the neo-Nazi assault on the Donbas and Russians. And all in the context of Minsk accords designed to reproduce Canadian style Confederation in Ukraine.
The problem is exacerbated by the fact that there are not half a dozen honest voices in Ottawa, there are no socialists, there are none opposed to NATO and the, once rich, vein of Canadian nationalism has disappeared.
And then there is the fact that every newspaper in Canada is, to one extent or another, indebted to the Federal Treasury for its survival.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 1 2023 20:42 utc | 79
Someone knew this arrival was happening in advance. It is highly unlikely they just happened to be filming the exact correct spot at dawn when it happened.
https://t.me/intelslava/42937
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 1 2023 20:48 utc | 80
If anyone is interested in the global political economy of the Ukraine war, see this excellent essay, republished on The Postil:
https://www.thepostil.com/conflict-in-ukraine-genesis/
A global political economy analysis is needed to understand the positions of Washington.
Posted by: Eisengrimm | Jan 1 2023 20:57 utc | 81
Stonebird, that is the way I am seeing it. We heard nothing about mud last Ukraine spring. Russian military can operate in any season. Tactics and strategies to fit the season.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 1 2023 20:58 utc | 82
Crypto-fascist Canadian tabloid The Sun pushing for National Hockey League superstar Alex Ovechkin to be banned by the Canadian gov’t from entering Canada because he likes and support President Putin.
When did it become a good idea for purported liberal democracies to begin officially persecuting persons for their personal beliefs? Apologies if this matter has already been discussed, have not yet waded into the comments.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeau-should-deny-ovechkin-a-visa-to-enter-canada-to-play-leafs-in-january
Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 1 2023 21:12 utc | 83
Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 1 2023 21:12 utc | 83
Come on, the Canadians didn’t let healthy recovered Canadians enter Canada if they were not vaccinated. By now everyone should know the collective west are not a liberal democracy. It’s a totalitarian distopia.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 1 2023 21:26 utc | 84
Posted by: Outraged | Jan 1 2023 15:02 utc | 11
surely there must be some areas by now that are technically totally understaffed and vulnerable if they’ve been taking these losses for so long? Just as the Allies were vulnerable in Kharkiv because they didn’t have the men the Kiev forces surely cannot be manning the whole front in a proper manner with what’s left of their army now? That’s a thousand km front. And for ‘proper’ manning it needs defense in depth which means more men/materiel.
It should surely be showing signs of being threadbare here and there? Signs clearly seen by today’s every watchful satellites and drones? And if not, then what is the worth of the analysis and commentary we’re getting?
We are told the attacks have diminished in scale from brigade to battalion to company etc. and this is quoted as evidence for the reduction in enemy strength. But it is not definitive at all. It could well be tactical only. For it is clearly enough to keep the Allies at bay in the main.
All remains murky to my mind. I plead again: anyone knowing authoritative knowledgeable sources please reveal them.
Finian Cunningham smells a rat.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/01/air-base-attacks-deep-inside-russia-point-to-cia-covert-ops-and-planned-war/
Nevertheless, there is the question of how are drones making their way deep inside Russian territory to launch air strikes on strategic targets.
It seems implausible that offensive unmanned aerial vehicles could travel undetected for hundreds of kilometers over Russian airspace, and then mount attacks on highly sensitive military sites. More likely, the weapons have been activated near their intended targets.
A recent separate report by investigative reporter Jack Murphy may shed some light. He does not refer to the spate of drone attacks on Russian air bases. But he cites former U.S. intelligence agents who claim that the Central Intelligence Agency is running clandestine sabotage teams inside Russia.
According to the report, the CIA is working with a European NATO ally to activate sleeper cells that have infiltrated Russia with caches of weapons. There are no Americans on the ground and the purported liaison with the NATO ally’s agents gives an extra layer of plausible deniability for Washington.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 1 2023 21:39 utc | 86
Come on, the Canadians didn’t let healthy recovered Canadians enter Canada if they were not vaccinated. By now everyone should know the collective west are not a liberal democracy. It’s a totalitarian distopia.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 1 2023 21:26 utc | 84
That’s interesting. I thought only Australia denied their own people return to homeshores. Not so, eh? So was it in fact commonplace?
@ stonebird.. thanks for your posts..
@ Michael Price | Jan 1 2023 20:28 utc | 73
thanks michael.. i sent it to a few canuck friends and am curious of their response, if i get one.. i included a few wiki links to this fellow and the statue in edmonton…
@ nwwoods | Jan 1 2023 21:12 utc | 83
looking at the ‘most liked’ comments to that article are encouraging.. canucks aren’t completely stupid even if the journalists profess to know something…
Posted by: james | Jan 1 2023 21:45 utc | 88
@KR
Merkel is definitely a snake, and does leave a more capable impression than Scholz, although that’s not a high bar to pass.
But even if Merkel was a leader of the type they used to hype her as a. k. a ‘mutti’, the reality is that Germany is a broken and successfully reprogrammed nation incapable of a independent foreign policy. Erdogans Turkey looks like a world power by comparison. Nobody, Merkel or otherwise, could lead Germany anywhere other than where the Anglos want it to go or that person wouldn’t survive for a day.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 1 2023 21:47 utc | 89
Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 1 2023 21:12 utc | 83
I don’t think it ever became a good idea but it became the norm in such as Australia, for instance, a long time ago.
You can go back to 1993 when david irving was banned from australia because of what he thought and wrote.
And was scurrilously treated in print by what thinks of itself as a premier literary publication in Aus: the ‘spectator’.
https://spectator.com.au/2017/04/david-irving-liar/
Western populations have lagged behind State realities, I think. We’ve had it too good for too long and we haven’t participated in affairs of State. We left the politicians to get on with it. We thought of them the way we think of electricians and plumbers, etc., tradesmen: you employ them to do a job and then leave them alone to get on with it.
But they are not tradesmen, they don’t have the training, nor the wit, nor the dedication, nor the honesty, nor the ability and come to that, nor the remit. They exist within the framework of ‘democracy’ where they are constrained not to do things as they think should be done and does as they think they should be done but to do what the public thinks should be done and to do it the way the public thinks it should be done.
i.e. they should be constantly patrolled, monitored, directed, interacted with, by the public.
Tell me I’m wrong: in 99.9% of cases they are NEVER interacted with by ANY members of their electorates.
So today the paradigm is: get yourself elected to the legislature and you are removed from the common ruck instantly and can now turn your back and play, play, play, do as you wish (given it is in accord with the ‘party masters’) and you are free from any responsibility to the electorate. You are disconnected. You have ‘won’. You have achieved success.
Someone knew this arrival was happening in advance. It is highly unlikely they just happened to be filming the exact correct spot at dawn when it happened.
https://t.me/intelslava/42937
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 1 2023 20:48 utc | 80
Yes. And they better get away from where they took that movie from pretty quick I’d say and hopefully leave no trace of who they are and hopefully not implicate whoever is left behind.
I get the feeling there’s been a big uptick recently in intelligence received or at least utilised by the Allied forces. they seem to be making a lot more decisive precision strikes. About time. Months and months of hearing about massive 10:1 artillery supremacy with no actual progress was depressing.
Come on, the Canadians didn’t let healthy recovered Canadians enter Canada if they were not vaccinated. By now everyone should know the collective west are not a liberal democracy. It’s a totalitarian distopia.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 1 2023 21:26 utc | 84
That’s interesting. I thought only Australia denied their own people return to homeshores. Not so, eh? So was it in fact commonplace?
Posted by: abrogard | Jan 1 2023 21:40 utc | 87
Vikichka is exaggerating. If you were returning to Canada unvaccinated you had to quarantine in a government approved hotel for 2 weeks, at your own expense.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 1 2023 21:59 utc | 92
That’s interesting. I thought only Australia denied their own people return to homeshores. Not so, eh? So was it in fact commonplace?
Posted by: abrogard | Jan 1 2023 21:40 utc | 87
Eva Bartlett had an article on RT back then, as she flew to Canada to see her mother who was waiting for her at the airport, but wasn’t allowed in and flew back. I think they gave her the option of a government “hotel” for an exorbitant fee, but I don’t remember specifics anymore. And as RT is now blocked here in my hellhole of an EU country, I can’t search for the article.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 1 2023 22:03 utc | 93
Eva Bartlett had an article on RT back then, as she flew to Canada to see her mother who was waiting for her at the airport, but wasn’t allowed in and flew back. I think they gave her the option of a government “hotel” for an exorbitant fee, but I don’t remember specifics anymore. And as RT is now blocked here in my hellhole of an EU country, I can’t search for the article.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 1 2023 22:03 utc | 93
I quite often hear about that kind of thing: countries where such as RT are blocked. How does it work? You cannot workaround by using a VPN? I often have to use one in my apology for a country but it does work and I generally find whatever I want to find – i.e. groping around in the dark I do manage to touch fellow human beings out there despite the best efforts of the forces of anti-life.
@51
Sorry but people don’t realise Russia tried peaceful means from 2014. They don’t care about the coup. They don’t care about the shelling of Donbass. It doesn’t matter what one points out they have absorbed the narrative.
@ Vikichka | Jan 1 2023 22:03 utc | 93
congratulations vikichka.. you and abrogard are working hard to discuss covid on a thread dedicated to ukraine… what the fuck gives?
Posted by: james | Jan 1 2023 22:10 utc | 96
oldhippie #20
Just checked the weather. In Fahrenheit. Currently 45 degrees in Donetsk. Tomorrow and Tuesday to reach a high of 50, or 10 to all non-Americans. Three days of freezing near end of ten day forecast do not mean much. Entirely possible there is no hard freeze this winter.
From my reading and viewing, I get the concept of a freeze as a bonus but not a necessity. Certainly is mild in those parts iearlgrey reported +2C degrees in Moscow a couple of days ago.
Right now the rearguard nazi hardliners and their reserves are getting smashed. As are their artillery and maintenance centres etc. Surovikin and chums are intensively hollowing out the rear so the frontline retreat becomes a roll up.
There is no urgency. In another week the Ukes will have sent more of their ‘surprise’ divisions to the front in desperation thus leaving more hollow in the rear. Simultaneously there will be almost zero air defence from missile and warplane attacks. The Ukes have searchlights and machine guns on utility trucks left mostly :))
Useless as tits on a bull.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 1 2023 22:13 utc | 98
Posted by: abrogard | Jan 1 2023 21:38 utc | 85 “surely there must be some areas by now that are technically totally understaffed and vulnerable ”
Based on the lack of evidence of that, as defined by a successful Russian push of any size in the last many months, I suspect the numbers given are not accurate. And this is true of both sides.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 1 2023 22:19 utc | 99
According to Southfront the Russians have taken a catastrophic hit from Himars with dozens killed due to incompetent crowding of personnel in unsuitable and vulnerable structure.
The extent of the incompetence is so great that treason is suspected.
How long is it going to take them to wise up and take this war seriously?
Posted by: bottle | Jan 1 2023 22:35 utc | 100