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January 20, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-18

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on January 20, 2023 at 16:29 UTC | Permalink

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So. Will the violation of the WW2 Pottsdam Treaty via German tank indirect or direct deliveries to Ukraine be the final red line for Moscow? Those air defense batteries being installed on top of key buildings in Moscow paint a dire picture.

Posted by: ERing46Z | Jan 20 2023 16:44 utc | 1

Looking back at winter euro energy crisis predictions, I'm left wondering what the mechanism for NATO (US) defeat was. If Europe entered recession, if Germany deindustrialised, that would serve US interests - Plaza Accords v2. It's not as if Europeans are in any position to affect revolutionary change. In the UK we've seen strikes above 1980s levels; but the Trade Union Congress remains split & paralysed. There is no revolution, no breaking out of US vassalage any time soon.

A Euro recession may well become a US one, but as 2008-12 showed, there's an ample buffer for US & US-aligned elites. With the Dems and Reps enjoying dominance and the DSA still a hobby party I don't see internal instability in the imperial centre any time soon, no matter how many non-whites nor disabled people it's armed forces kill.

The US enjoys home security. It has a vassal state to the north, and a neocolony to the south. It maintains control over Central America, including Panama. It is Russia that faces geopolitical insecurity; it is Russia that must unite with Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics and Finland to enjoy some degree of protection. It's the mirror image of the Ukraine strategic disadvantage: being only able to defend, not free to attack.

Russia has hypersonic weapons, and good military technology generally. Enough to win this Russian Civil War. But to overweigh this is to commit the wunderwaffe error in the opposite direction. The US has an incredible lead in military spending, GDP, and it's a massive reach to sign it all away to corruption (massive though it is).

The US empire system will unravel, as empires always do. But it won't happen this century.

Posted by: Lysa | Jan 20 2023 16:45 utc | 2

🇩🇪🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Spiegel: German intelligence reported to the Bundestag about the large losses of the AFU near Artemovsk

According to the newspaper, the Federal Intelligence Service indicated that the fall of the city will affect the entire line of defense of Ukraine

The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) this week presented to the Bundestag deputies a report indicating three-digit losses every day of the Ukrainian army in the area of Artemivsk (Bakhmut). This was reported by Der Spiegel on Friday.

"The Federal Intelligence Service informed the deputies [of the Bundestag] about the situation at a secret meeting this week. What the officials were able to report is alarming: Ukrainians are now suffering huge losses at the front near Bakhmut, and the BND briefing talked about three-digit numbers of deaths per day. According to the analysis, if Bakhmut falls, it will affect the entire line of defense of Ukraine," the publication notes.

Earlier on Friday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of the settlement of Kleshcheyevka in the Donetsk People's Republic in the Artemivsk direction by the forces of assault detachments of volunteers with fire support of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/2326163-german-intelligence-alarmed-by-ukrainian-losses-in-bakhmut---spiegel


https://t.me/azmilitary11/34244

Posted by: Down South | Jan 20 2023 16:57 utc | 3

Once the EU is deindustrialized it will be a millstone around the neck of the US, who will be forced to pump money into a large black hole. Otherwise, a collapsing EU will break free of the US and join the rest of the world.

Moreover, as the rest of the world continues to trade amongst themselves in their own currencies, the U.S. dollar will fade away and become just another regular currency. As that happens, the US will not be able to print like a drunken sailor. Previously, it got away with irresponsible printing, because the world uses dollars to trade amongst themselves. As a result, inflation was not a big issue. But going forward, printing will just cause inflation.

Since the U.S. does not make much of what the world needs, it will slowly be cut off from the rest of the world, who will get what they need from China, India, Brazil, Russia etc

The world no longer needs the US, which produces very little of concrete value. It will downsize very soon, and as it contracts, it will descend into some sort of civil strife: blacks vs whites, angry unemployed migrants from Latin America, further breakdown of their families and communities, increased gender confusion etc

Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Jan 20 2023 17:12 utc | 4

Good point from Christoforou today saying the point of the USA and Brussels forcing Germany to send Leopards is to put the final nail in coffin of German Russian relations, figuring German tanks rolling towards Russia will makes any rapprochement impossible.

Berletic guesting on The Left Lens with Danny Haiphong has a good point on the USA's pouring in of modern heavy weapons while now talking up the need to attack Crimea, it's to bring the kind of death and destruction as seen in the worst hit towns of eastern Ukraine to all of the territory acquired by the RF including Crimea, it's punitive and vindictive, if NATO loses it will leave Russia a wall to wall scorched earth to rebuild.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 20 2023 17:19 utc | 5

reply to 2

What you say is fair but I think the world fails to account for political and social "hormesis". Singapore arose from a malarial swamp. Russia rejected EU goods after 2014 and built up its agriculture and built out autarky.

The securities enjoyed by the US push its thinking towards lazy fantasy. Uncontrolled debts, mass drug use and an inability to recruit for the military are symptoms. Add leaning into suicidal behavior to that. Having an empire or just a large diverse nation requires some stoicism for maintainance - otherwise it starts to look like Imperial China in humiliation days.

The Achilles heel is the dollar. If they lose that dominance, everything else goes with it. If Congress was charged with ruining that, they could scarcely do a better job than at present.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 20 2023 17:20 utc | 6

Looks like UAF suffered some kind of miniature collapse in the Orehkov/Zaporozhye direction. Video:

https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1616443830299164674

The "kiss of death" from Davos effect? Better watch out.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 20 2023 17:28 utc | 7

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 20 2023 17:28 utc | 7

Intel Slava Z
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡A broad offensive of the Russian army really began in Zaporozhye. The administration of the Zaporozhye region announces the release of a number of settlements already: Malye Shcherbaki, Shcherbaki, Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka, Malaya Tokmachka, Belogorye

Ukraine moved part of it's forces to Artemovsk leaving Zaporozhye defence with holes

Posted by: Mary | Jan 20 2023 17:40 utc | 8

Posted by: Lysa | Jan 20 2023 16:45 utc | 2

You seem to know that something is wrong in the West but, probably out of necessity, use the western narratives, patterns and terminology to make sense of it all. Which results in convoluted thinking, contorting oneself in all kinds of shapes to fit into a logical story.

For example, it is Ukraine that is racially attacking russians and their culture with Russia defending. Claiming the opposite is the Western narrative.

The “military reach” of the US we saw in Afganistan for 20 years.

Russia does not need to unite itself with anyone, it has plenty, but needs no missiles with 5min flight time to Moscow.

Using a term like “The Russian Civil War” just amazes me. Is this now the new narrative in the West?

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 20 2023 17:40 utc | 9

Lysa@2

Afraid that you are embarrassing yourself with your pro-Evil Empire comments. It's quite evident that you have received most of your information, opinions from the mass media of misinformation, disinformation and out and out propaganda on behalf of the Cabal's agenda.

So do yourself a favor and keep lurking on this site. There are a number of highly researched and informed posters here. It has become a virtual post PHD level seminar on geopolitical realism.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 17:43 utc | 10

Down South@3

Sources which I've accessed recently indicate that something like 27 Brigades of The AFU have become engaged on the defensive side of the Artymovsk cauldron. Under peacetime conditions, 27 Ukie brigades would number close to a hundred thousand effectives. However, as your posting reveals, the attrition rate for these brigades are such as to indicate that its quite possible that the effective strength of those 27 may have been reduced to less than half of their original strength.

Communications and supply are severiously threatened as the Russian pincers keep nibbling away in the direction of a total Kesselschlacht. As the Bakhmut/Artymovsk pocket may be invested/infested by close to a full quarter of Ukraine's combat ready forces; the ultimate liberation of that center of AFU occupation forces means that the vital core of Ukie + mercenary units will be eliminated.

Likely enough that within three weeks time that there will be a general collapse of the entire front.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 17:52 utc | 11

From Missiles & Nukes Telegram Channel...
https://t.me/missilesnukes/8229

Aaaand the best news of all - Bakhmut collapse unfolding

All roads getting shot up in and out , makes holding defense for a long time impossible
Ukris likely sounds general retreat soon to avoid encirclement

We see more pictures to fully confirm the positions

The situation in Artemovsk is close to the operational encirclement, Wagner units are advancing day and night, Pushilin said

WRT Zaporizhe Front....
https://t.me/missilesnukes/8228

First line collapsing after a day , seems they had nothing there

Zelensky gamble is paying off for Russia

I looked at the maps.... looks like total encirclement...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 20 2023 17:57 utc | 12

From Intel Slava Z Telegram Channel...
https://t.me/intelslava/43560

Intel Slava Z, [1/20/23 11:12 AM]
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Map of Russian offensives to date

So, today the beginning of the offensive on the Zaporozhye front was finally confirmed. During the day, two localities were liberated, right now there are battles for the locality of Shcherbaki. Several sources report that the Russian army is approaching the city of Orekhovo directly. There is also data on several reconnaissance operations in the direction of Gulyai-Pole.

Parts of the Wagner PMCs also continue to put pressure on the Artemovsky direction. The Russian army is also strengthening near Donetsk, after the successful liberation of Opytny.

Intel Slava Z, [1/20/23 11:15 AM]
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡A broad offensive of the Russian army really began in Zaporozhye. The administration of the Zaporozhye region announces the release of a number of settlements already: Malye Shcherbaki, Shcherbaki, Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka, Malaya Tokmachka, Belogorye
https://t.me/intelslava/43561
Ukraine moved part of it's forces to Artemovsk leaving Zaporozhye defence with holes

Looks like a major push up the east side of the Deniper River is unfolding..

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 20 2023 18:00 utc | 13

unimperitor@7

From the video it would appear that this Ukie armor was attempting to retreat and got caught by the Russian aerial assaults while they were attempting to slog through the madness of Ukrainian mud, as the Zap region has yet to freeze solid.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 18:03 utc | 14

unimperator@7....holy shit, the apocalypse arrived for someone, what a mess, if that's what's happening all along the front someone needs to hang Zelinsky, and all the officers that would allow their men to be mauled like that rather than retreat regroup. Puts the NATO panic in perspective.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 20 2023 18:24 utc | 15

From the Ukraine TG channel Resident

"General Staff are constantly receiving information from British intelligence, and last week CIA Director William Burns secretly visited Kiev, who informed Zelensky about certain Russian plans. At the moment, the West is confident that Russia will not use tactical nuclear weapons, which means that it can continue to bend the Kremlin to abandon the alliance with China. For Ukraine, this tactic will not bring anything good, the war will move into a new phase, and the destruction of critical infrastructure will continue."

And then this
"MI6 has passed intelligence to the President's Office and General Staff that Russia has begun preparing for a long conflict with a stronger army and a transition of the economy to martial law. The Kremlin believes that there is a war going on for Russia, which means that it is permissible to use any means. British intelligence recommends that the Office of the President begin preparations for possible strikes on the Armed Forces of Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons."

CIA telling Ukraine Russia wont use nukes, MI6 telling Ukraine Russia might or will use nukes.
UK false flags to Draw the US in deeper or to keep the US in the fight with Russia will I think again be the main danger as Ukraine is seen to be losing in the coming months.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 18:25 utc | 16

I'm wondering if the troops in Belarus are not for a big arrow offensive, seeing the success RF is having with the assault force from the original SMO, Wagner, Chechens and Donbas militia, all across the Donesk and Zaporozhye fronts the Belarus troops might simply be to move down and hold and reinforce the territory taken, IOW no more RF over extending themselves, territory they take this time will be well reinforced and fortified. After that consolidation, who knows.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 20 2023 18:33 utc | 17

Peter AU1 @ 16

CIA telling Ukraine Russia wont use nukes, MI6 telling Ukraine Russia might or will use nukes. UK false flags to Draw the US in deeper or to keep the US in the fight with Russia will I think again be the main danger as Ukraine is seen to be losing in the coming months.

Both CIA and MI6 are leaving out the good part, if RF uses nukes, should it make that drastic decision, there is no point whatsoever, even as a last ditch admonition before dooms day, to hit Ukraine. If RF strikes first with nukes it will hit NATO bases, all or some, in the ex-Warsaw pact countries. I hate sports analogies but if Russia is going to fumble the ball it might as well do it right on the other guy's end zone and not in their own.

At that point the Pentagon either goes strategic or goes home. That's why when the more experience and saner minds of the WW2 generation were in power across the west, anti-Russian as they were, they avoided these shit games.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 20 2023 18:47 utc | 18

From the Ukraine TG channel Resident

"At the moment, the West is confident that Russia will not use tactical nuclear weapons, which means that it can continue to bend the Kremlin to abandon the alliance with China."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 18:25 utc | 16

Non sequitur, anyone?

Posted by: David Levin | Jan 20 2023 18:53 utc | 19

In other news. The Netherlands announces a massive clean out of the obsolete time-expired war toys storage warehouse. Only gathering dust and mice. To be shipped to country 404.

Well on one hand given the short life of all combat equipment sent to the eastern front in country 404. Not exceeding twenty-four hours. They will not need to supply any spare parts at all.

Russian Army thanks the Dunmb&Dumber Dutchies for sending additional live targets to the cannon fodder war.

Posted by: Big Deal Motors On | Jan 20 2023 19:04 utc | 20

That meeting of Allies in Germany today. Sending Tanks to UKRAINE 404. finds hand wringing. What to do.. What to do.? "No, you go first." "No, we won't let you re-export"

Talks in Germany end without decision on sending Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine


OTTAWA - CP. Defence Minister Anita Anand is returning to Canada after a meeting in Germany today where allies failed to make much headway on providing battle tanks to Ukraine.

The question was at the top of the agenda as Anand and dozens of counterparts gathered to discuss and co-ordinate plans to provide Ukraine with new military aid.

The Ukrainian government says it needs tanks to protect its troops and launch counter-offensives against Russian forces, particularly in the eastern part of the country.

The Liberal government has not said whether Canada is open to sending some of its German-made Leopard 2 tanks.
But before Canada can even entertain the idea, it needs Berlin's sign-off to allow it to re-export the tanks.

That did not happen during today's meeting, with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius saying the matter remains unresolved.

The Canadian Press, Jan. 20, 2023.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 20 2023 19:08 utc | 21

The US empire system will unravel, as empires always do. But it won't happen this century.

Posted by: Lysa | Jan 20 2023 16:45 utc | 2

Good analysis about the US situation concerning vassals and virtual colonies to the north and south respectively, but your concluding sentence is vague to the point of meaninglessness.

We're not even 23 years into this century and the US has been kicked out of Afghanistan and Iraq and will soon be kicked out of Syria. The US has secret (to most of its population) bases in Africa that will eventually gain notoriety at home and be questioned. But that's just military / geopolitical / territorial defense stuff. What about the economy? So what if we spend far and away more than any other nation (combined even) on the Orwellian named "department of defense"? What do we have to show for it in terms of force projection against peers or near-peers when we can't even defeat the Taliban or ISIS (both of which previous iterations of US foreign policy had a hand in creating)?

And by unravel, you must mean *completely* unravel? Because it's *already* unraveling. We don't have a domestic manufacturing base capable of meeting microchip let alone advanced weaponry "needs." Sure, we pump out a LOT of handguns and semi-automatic rifles (and shoot each other a lot as a result), but that's not a sound basis for a manufacturing economy. The country and continent have been financialized to the point of near ruin. Michael Hudson and others write and speak at length about it. As much as I'd hate a shooting civil war 2.0, I can't necessarily rule one out.

Sure, maybe the US, EU, Canada and AUNZ (with Japan and SK) can carve out and adhere to their own trading bloc, but we're already in the process of losing the Global South including current Asian trade partners and Latin America. There would be zero domestic appetite for any types of military action in any of those places and therefore it's almost impossible to believe that would happen, minus a color revolution or military junta/coup should a particular country get too close to the "problem of the good example."

Re: Russia - They've already realized that the "West" is not their friend and have turned to China, the ME and Asia. Russia has some of the largest reserves of resources in the world and the infrastructure to deliver them, especially on the Eurasian continent. They don't need "us" and they don't need to maintain a fraying empire like we do in order to be relevant. They don't need the Ruble to be the world's reserve/petrocurrency but we need the dollar to remain as such or we'll face financial ruin compounded by the above referenced lack of industrial manufacturing and near total financialization of the economy.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 20 2023 19:20 utc | 22

Posted by: Lysa | Jan 20 2023 16:45 utc | 2

Add in the de-militarization of Europe, and the US pretty much got us by our throat.

With the probable social unrest, will we see death-squads and open political warfare?

This was never a Russian civil war - it's about the fate of Europe. Will we still live in the past- where the rulers of the sea always were our masters- or will we realize we need not go there anymore, if we can keep the US off our own waterways.

Posted by: Anne B | Jan 20 2023 19:31 utc | 23

Tanks are going to be too late anyway.
The advances in the direction of Orikhiv site, "after the liberation of Lobkove, Russian troops took the neighboring village of Mali Shcherbaki with a rush, knocking out the combined enemy forces from there."

Visual. Orikhiv is a strategic supply point in any advance to Zaporizhia
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1616505319424937984/photo/1

The speed is visible. Possibly due to a reduction of AFU forces sent to support Bakhmut. Which is itself being surrounded from the south. Much of the North-western side is under fire control as well. (Keep them bottled up).

Whether it is a major push or just that the AFU have collapsed is not clear at the moment. Putin has said that only a portion of the recent mobilization is being used in Ukraine, the rest is still being trained.
****

Zelensky says that the Patriot systems are already in place. Coke-view or correct-view?.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 20 2023 19:32 utc | 24

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 20 2023 19:32 utc | 24

Someone said it earlier. But they are testing by putting pressure in many places of the front, if some place looks like it could crack, they will send reserves to reinforce that attack.

My guess is the new nato tanks were meant for an offensive on Melitopol, so it was pre-empted with this attack. Nato command seems to be hell-bent on Melitopol and Crimean land bridge, and Crimea in general. They might be so far hell-bent that they will do very mad things to attack in that direction, which can also work to Russian advantage.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 20 2023 19:44 utc | 25

I can't think of something that would galvanize the Russian people more than the sight of German tanks rolling (again) on Russian soil to kill Russian soldiers. It would mean immense popular support for the fight against the West. The remembrance of the Great War in Russia is very deep - much deeper than in Western Europe (even if, by the way, in my small country, people still are very sceptical about Germany's long-term intentions - many elderly people keep saying "they will come a third time...", so NATO cohesion may not be that safe...).
Meanwhile Russian arms production is gearing up. European arms production? Why, most Western European factories are crying for a workforce they cannot find. Where are you going to find a French, Dutch, Belgian worker willing to do the extra shift for the nation? That idealism is dead and buried here. And then our engineering catastrophe...:
today, a military "expert" (retired colonel) told a flemish newspaper that the Leopard tanks are the best in the world - he clearly did not see their dismal performance under Turkish flag...there may be fancy designs for new main battle tanks in Germany or France, but it's just dreaming like the Pentagon likes to do, while the Armata's are real and on production line.It really comes down to this: NATO is a spoiled child that won't be able to take a punch, Russia is though one that can survive a real fight. No strutting of NATO officials can change this.

Posted by: Anthony | Jan 20 2023 19:46 utc | 26

A lot in the media now about a Ukraine spring offensive with the latest list of promised weapons. Poland putting out some sort of app showing people where the nearest bomb shelter is.

Leopard tanks cannot be transferred to Ukraine ownership without Germany's approval. I assume the countries which own them can however use them in Ukraine. UK's little coalition of rabid Russiaphobia...
Will be interesting to see what happens in the northern spring. Wider war or just empty words to keep Ukraine fighting to the last Ukrainian?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 19:49 utc | 27

A good new piece from Big Serge:

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-world-blood

Posted by: dask | Jan 20 2023 19:50 utc | 28

Stonebird unimperator

That video of the destroyed Ukr convoy, it reminded me of a few helicopter strikes in the first week or so. Ukraine air defenses have mostly been positioned to protect infrastructure and Kiev over the last few months.
Zaporizhia front has been quiet right through the SMO so very likely no air defense whatsoever allowing the attack helos to do their thing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 19:56 utc | 29

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 19:49 utc | 27

The "spring offensive" is a narrative which is easy to package, brand and sell off to western audience in the corporate press. It's a nice sounding title. On the ground, the prerequisites for a "massive game changing offensive" seem to be draining away every day. But time will tell.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 20 2023 19:56 utc | 30

unimperator @ 7 / sean the leprechaun @ 15

holy shit, the apocalypse arrived for someone, what a mess, if that's what's happening all along the front

You know what they say when someone goes bankrupt, little by little, then all at once.

Let's hope all this idiocy ends soon. I doubt it but a sudden implosion of the AFU certainly wasn’t in the cards and might just fuck up USA/UK plan A, B, C, D, all the way to Z.

I think Zelesnky and Zaluzhny and the entire AFU command were united on holding Bakhmut, not necessary happy about it but forced. They know that if they lose here they will very likely lose the Donbas forever and the meat grinder doesn't reveal madness as much as it indicates a stark reality, if they lose the Donbas they won't be able to take it back. Might be the Pentagon (maybe going against UK and NATO) said clearly USA troops will not fight mano a mano in the trenches for you to take back the Donbas. This battle is your last chance, if you hold we can back you up, but we will not replace you. At that the UK and NATO said, "hey, er, ah, don't look at us". Well, it's one scenario.

Tom_Q_Collins @ 22

They don't need the Ruble to be the world's reserve/petrocurrency but we need the dollar to remain as such or we'll face financial ruin compounded by the above referenced lack of industrial manufacturing and near total financialization of the economy.

Don't forget no matter how much they tart it up financialization is a Ponzi scheme. Once the money stops coming in, and it doesn't have to be all of it, just a tiny bit (the lever works both ways) it crashes. I'm not that thrilled about that, I'm on a pretty low rung, the collapse of society will be of little consequence on the 1%, bad for those in the next 30%, brutal for everyone else, across the world.

On the Leopards, Poland said it might ignore Germany's permission. Sure, why not? It would look like shit for NATO, humiliate Germany even more though that seems to be the zeitgeist, and it's impossible to know how much of this is escalation Kabuki or real internal strife. Anyone seen this today:

Bundestag (AfD) deputy Petr Bystron: “You are bringing German tanks against Russia in Ukraine. Your grandfathers already tried to do this then with the Melniks and Banderas, as they do again now. And what is the result? Result, Russian tanks are here in Berlin. And you pass by two of them every day on your way here. The Russians have over 10,000 tanks and can mobilize 2 million men. Two hundred of our tanks are of no importance. This conflict cannot be won militarily."

https://t.me/vicktop55/11731


Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 20 2023 20:12 utc | 31

Larry Johnson's latest:
1. Internecine troubles in Ze's group
2. Russia Installing PANTSIR-S Air Defenses on Roofs of MOD and Gov Buildings.

ARE THE UKRAINIAN POLITICAL ELITE STARTING TO EAT EACH OTHER?


Let us commence with the news that someone (or a group of someones) assassinated Ukraine’s top three intelligence officials — the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Denis Monastyrsky, his first deputy Yevgeny Enin and the State Secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lubkovich. Wait a minute (some will say) we do not know if this was a mechanical failure or pilot error. True, no final conclusions, yet. But an eyewitness interviewed by one of the Kiev media claimed:

"that the helicopter with the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine on board was spinning and burning in the air before the collision.
https://t.me/c/1840140143/126"

If that witness is giving an accurate account then it is highly unlikely that the mid-air fireball was caused by pilot error or a mechanical malfunction. [.]

and

WESTERN ESCALATION THREATENS TO WIDEN WORLD WAR III

World War III has started. I hope that more Americans are starting to understand that the war in Ukraine is not a battle between the forces of Kiev and the forces of Moscow. Ukraine is a mere proxy. Russia is fighting NATO and Russia fully understands this. Russia realizes it confronts an existential threat and is conducting itself accordingly. It appears that most Western leaders think Russia is bluffing and, if faced with enough international pressure, will back down. It is that kind of stupidity that makes global war a looming possibility.[.]

The PANTSIR is surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery system. Russia has several models, with the PANTSIR SM the most capable deployed system in its inventory. Russia is prepared for the possibility that Ukraine, with the encouragement of the U.S. and NATO, will launch an attack on Moscow with missiles or drones supplied by the West. If that happens, then that will mark a terrible watershed for an escalation in this war.[.]

In desperation, anything goes. A straw is an oak tree. And US led-NATO is displaying panic. No good decisions ensue.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 20 2023 20:22 utc | 32

Peter au @16

British intel/MI6 has been described as having a direct linkage to the Father of Lies. Well, we do know for sure that they are connected at the hip to the Rottenchild bank in City of London, where all the major decisions are made and then channeled to the likes of MI6 and Langley.

Essentially, the London elitist regime has been calling most of the shots on the front and behind the lines. Z. is a most accommodating and obedient servant. Biden would be if his mind was still able to operate by means of his brain.

Upshot of all of this is that the nominated attack dog, the U.$$A military, is getting a case of chilly toesies. Getting more deeply involved becomes more chancy by the day. More uncertainty, so it looks as if cooler heads may prevail in the Pentagon. Use of even tactical nukes by any side could readily open Pandora's Box. So it gets down to the level of the human self and loved-ones preservation instinct.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 20:24 utc | 33

LightYearsFromHome@31...after Lavrov's eulogy for west yesterday, and the continued belligerence from the Ukie side, there can never be a Rumpkraine, not for that level of belligerence to sit and fester. Tis do or die for Russia. If they don't defeat the Ukraine completely they will be attacked for years ...Brits be like that, got themselves a pack of rabid dogs, even the Crimea crack from foggy bottom yesterday about support for and Ukraine's entitlement to, Crimea.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 20 2023 20:25 utc | 34

LYFH @18

For whatever reason would the RF possibly need to use tactical nukes? No-brainer says "no". Ever hear of hyperbaric weaponry? The intense heat is equivalent to a human-scale microwave to the nth degree.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 20:26 utc | 35

Likklemore@21

So it looks like Germany has finally come to terms with it's occupied nation status and with a bit of legerdemain are holding off on Leopards leaving the savanna and entering Ukiestan. That zone appears to look as if predatorial cats would find themselves taking on the role of prey.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 20:31 utc | 36

Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 19:56 utc | 29

"Ukraine air defenses have mostly been positioned to protect infrastructure and Kiev over the last few months."

To protect zelensky personally! The AFU tactic; grab anybody not quick enough to excape. Send them to the front lines. Withdraw the "Officer" class to safe spaces. (Bunkers in Kiev and Livov). repeat as often as possible.
*

Patriot systems; Send them in first, wait a moment and THEN say they are going to be sent, so the Russians are (theoretically) staying up late at night to find them as they "arrive"?
*

The newest advance to Orikhiv is interesting as it could lead to a thrust straight up the middle of Ukieland. Cutting Odessa off from Kiev. It would have to arrive at Dnipro, Both it and Zaporihzahza (nearest I can get to the spelling tonight) have big dams which could be used to cross into North Kherson by tank.

It all depends on how far the AFU have been hollowed out.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 20 2023 20:46 utc | 37

You know, Germany breaking its shackles would be the easiest way out of this mess. All around the dastardly plot would unwind. USA, UK, Poland, neocon cabal, Zelensky, all fucked. Germany saves the world, how about that! A hero to the majority of a newly blossoming multipolar planet. Germans hailed around the globe, undoing all their historic crimes... LOL just throwing shit out there.

Takes cajones to break one's shackles and escape jail. How do you say cajones in German?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 20 2023 20:48 utc | 38

aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 20:24 utc | 33 "the Father of Lies"

Perfidious Albion... still trying to conquer the continent. Now with a coalition of poodles that separate the heartland from old Europe. With Denmark in, UK now controls access to the Baltic sea. Ukraine, Poland, Denmark.
Now the UK led coalition of Russophobia is being bypassed with Turkiye as the gas hub into old Europe.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 20:50 utc | 39

So far the Uqrainian public 'appear' to have been supporting Zelinsky,
But obviously they had no choice, if they came out and opposed him they'd be bound to a tree and beaten or worse.
There are a lot of widows and orphans in Uqraine at the momment, once they realise the dream of western luxury living was just a con then I think very soon we will see Zelensky and his thugs grab the money and run.
The wizard of oz was a fake, dont follow the yellow brick road.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 20 2023 20:53 utc | 40

I have noticed a large uptick in soldiers over the last week.

I’m regularly commuting across Germany and starting last week I have noticed a huge spike in uniformed soldiers on the trains.

I haven’t heard anything official but wonder if there’s
troup preps going on or Mobilmachung for larger involvement in the war.
Anyone with German military intel who can chime in?

Posted by: PuddingPulver | Jan 20 2023 20:59 utc | 41

US advises Ukraine to withdraw forces from Artemivsk, - AFP

▪️A senior US official told France Press that Kyiv's efforts to hold the city are hindering preparations for the expected spring offensive.
▪️According to the official, in the case of Artemovsk, time is on the side of Russia, which has more artillery and military resources. Training takes time, so the Ukrainians should consider "exchanging" Artemivsk for training.
▪️Kyiv may not have enough resources to both conduct military operations in the city and prepare for an offensive in the south of the country. Artyomovsk is located in the Kyiv-held part of the DPR north of the large city of Gorlovka, being an important transport hub for supplying the Ukrainian group of troops in the Donbass.
"The states are advising Kyiv to withdraw these forces in order to re-equip and join US programs aimed at building a well-armed force capable of launching an offensive in the south," AFP reports.

https://t.me/loordofwar/74995

So US now wants ukies to give up Artemovsk so they can launch an attack towards Melitopol. They are hell-bent and fixated on one target. Any space alien all the way up to Pluto knows all the US plans in Ukraine now. If they withdraw from the town, there's a nice opportunity to bomb them. Druzihvka-Konstaninovka is the next line. Of course, defending those agglomorations will present the exact same problems as defending Artemivsk.

Some strategic masterminds at work here.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 20 2023 21:01 utc | 42

Just to add to my mark2 @ 40
In keiv There are a lot of guns and manpads in the public hands, that could be the game chainger.
Let's hope.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 20 2023 21:07 utc | 43

Stonebird | Jan 20 2023 20:46 utc | 37

I tend to think Russian forces will stay mostly in what is now Russia's borders, though that depends on the legalities to do with the mobilized. There doesn't seem to be a problem for volunteer/professional forces But there are legalities in Russian law as to where forces can be used.

I'm not a military person but every time I look at the map, I think Russia should be wrapping in a U shape around the end the the Ukr frontline and roll it up. Breaking through the frontlines in the Orikhiv area would set Russia up to do just that. Roll up the southern frontlines then up the Donetsk region border. No big cauldrons just rolling up the Ukraine lines from the ends.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 21:10 utc | 44

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 20 2023 20:53 utc | 40

Zelensky isn't going to run away from widows and orphans.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 20 2023 21:13 utc | 45

I have been hoping for an offensive on Zapo, because the landbridge to Crimea is Russia's exposed throat in Ukraine, and Zapo could provide a buffer zone and pressure the Donbass direction from the rear. But I am not convinced yet that we are seeing a big offensive. UA shills are silent about Zapo front action. The towns which have been claimed captured are so small they're hard to even see on the map. There may have been little or no garrison in them.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 20 2023 21:17 utc | 46

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 20 2023 19:44 utc | 25

An offensive against Melitopol is not "mad". If you were in UA's position, what would you do? (besides surrender, obviously). I would attack Melitopol. They don't even need to take the city, just drive the 50 miles down to its outskirts and cut the east-west highway.

But then, I would have priortized Melitopol over Kherson. If UA had attacked Melitpol they would have gotten Kherson for free. The fact that they did not do so is probably proof that they don't think they can take Melitopol.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 20 2023 21:29 utc | 47

After this week zelensky is going to be very nervous getting into a helicopter.
He's going to want to stay alive to spend his billion doller personal wealth.
The best time to fold your hand and leave the card table is when you sence your luck has begun to run out. Like now.
Manpads are manpads when all said and done.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 20 2023 21:37 utc | 48

Before 1989 and the fall of the east the European armies were more equipped.
I did a year for France. last contigent to do 12 months.
an artillery regiment at Reutlingen trained at Tubingen.
At the time an artillery regiment it was four batteries of six AUF1 155
or 24 pieces of 155mm+ for each battery of the 105 towed and for each
truck one 12.7 on turret
4x400 men + batteries command and services 1300 men = 3000 men.

Ministry of defence FR
Number of 155 mm guns in the army (CAESAR, AUF1 and TRF1): 121.

In four days the Western Nazis lost 21 tanks of artillery min 152mm
of which 3 caesar.
Only two tanks 125mm . There are no more.
16 units towed min 152mm.
In terms of calibre it is 3 artillery regiment equivalent to the current Nazi.
Denazification by attrition is spectacular.
The bear just scratches it doesn’t bite.
Russia hasn’t started yet.
Thanks to all the customers and the boss .

Posted by: la bouteille | Jan 20 2023 21:46 utc | 49

There is reports in the last hour about heavy shelling of Kostiantyninka. If the Russians have moved close enough to attack that area all zones from Bakhmut to NewYork are in serious danger of being isolated and cut off from supplies.
This would be disastrous and cause way more problems than the fall of Bakhmut.

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 20 2023 21:51 utc | 50

On the map of the military events in Zaporizhya region (oblast' ?) that I have seen on Twitter today, there is a tag in Russian that can be understood as "Attack of nuts" or "Attack on nuts", or, with "attack on Orikhiv" with faulty grammar. So things go nuts.

Characteristically, the ground is soggy which should prevent heavy vehicles going through open fields, and here it is interesting. Russians were supposed to wait for solid frozen ground, but they attack right after a week of cold weather, with yet warmer weather approaching. So there is no simple weather determinism here.

Tanks and other vehicles on threads are made to tolerate soft ground, although up to a point, beyond that point they would bog down. Perhaps after a week of low temperature, lower levels of soils are still frozen... but we do not know much about actual combat tactics involved (ground troops with artillery? helicopters? tank support?). Someone theorized that the purpose is tactical, cutting off the most efficient supply route to Uhledar, a virtual fortress that is a southern flank of the Ukrainian formation that shells Donetsk city. In any case, if the advance will go several times further, AFU be troubled with logistics and positioning for further actions.

If Russia plans a long slow war, it should secure two targets: towns adjacent to Donetsk from the west, heavily fortified mazes of trenches and "weaponized" buildings, used to shell Donetsk, and the upper part of the canal that supplies Donetsk and Mariupol with water. This will give decent lives to pro-Russian population, a tangible success with benefits that ordinary Russians will appreciate. It is still an open question if it will be achieved.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 20 2023 21:52 utc | 51

Peter AU1 | Jan 20 2023 21:10 utc | 44

I am not sure about the legal situation nowadays. Conscripts could not be used abroad, but since the four new oblasts are now Russian, it would seem possible at the moment. (I am not sure Putin would let that happen anyway.) The mobilized and the regulars may now have the legal right to continue into other parts of the field. I don't know.

One solution is the "roll-up" of AFU forces starting from the Zap area as you say. It may be that there is no "large offensive" but a strengthening of units that already exist. Much less noticible, and newcomers would have the benefit of experienced soldiers next to them. Belarus activity would then be a diversion for AFU forces to "protect" Kiev, but not used as such.

We live in interesting times.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 20 2023 21:55 utc | 52

Posted by: Lysa | Jan 20 2023 16:45 utc | 2

You seem like a genuine poster and deserve a full reply (I know trolls often start out that way, but benefit of doubt first up)

TextLooking back at winter euro energy crisis predictions, I'm left wondering what the mechanism for NATO (US) defeat was. If Europe entered recession, if Germany deindustrialised, that would serve US interests - Plaza Accords v2. It's not as if Europeans are in any position to affect revolutionary change. In the UK we've seen strikes above 1980s levels; but the Trade Union Congress remains split & paralysed. There is no revolution, no breaking out of US vassalage any time soon.

well they will have succeeded with the de-industrialisation of Germany, but my guess is that it will be China not US that gains or other European countries eg Spain or Italy. Turkey also is an obvious winner via gas hub.

I am not sure that anyone really sees serious unrest until it happens. UK came very close to the wire last year and its economy is tanking.

A Euro recession may well become a US one, but as 2008-12 showed, there's an ample buffer for US & US-aligned elites. With the Dems and Reps enjoying dominance and the DSA still a hobby party I don't see internal instability in the imperial centre any time soon, no matter how many non-whites nor disabled people it's armed forces kill.

I thought the US recession is already in full swing or about to happen. At least that is what our MSN economists are saying here in Australia. Personally I think the USA is inherently unstable- too many racial groups competing, too many guns, too much fear and too much inequality. powder keg waiting to blow in my opinion but I am an outsider.

The US enjoys home security. It has a vassal state to the north, and a neocolony to the south. It maintains control over Central America, including Panama. It is Russia that faces geopolitical insecurity; it is Russia that must unite with Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics and Finland to enjoy some degree of protection. It's the mirror image of the Ukraine strategic disadvantage: being only able to defend, not free to attack.

All true but if China joins Russia the USA is vulnerable along its sea coast to submarines

Russia has hypersonic weapons, and good military technology generally. Enough to win this Russian Civil War. But to overweigh this is to commit the wunderwaffe error in the opposite direction. The US has an incredible lead in military spending, GDP, and it's a massive reach to sign it all away to corruption (massive though it is).

It is foolish to equate spending with technological advantage as the US space biro versus Russian pencil shows. However I agree that too many commentators on the Russian side have excess hubris about their wonder weapons. My unskilled observation it that the Russian technology works very well but i do not think they have enough of it for a full scale war.

The US empire system will unravel, as empires always do. But it won't happen this century.

No sad reality is that empires really only stay top of the tree for 70-100 years. I think they are bookended by 30 years of chaos.

The USA became the world dominant empire in 1945 or so, reaching that spot after 30 years of war and chaos, through most of which time the UK still pretended (or thought it was) to be the dominant empire. The UK's undisputed dominance started in about 1815, again following 30 years of chaos as France collapsed and tried to revive via Napoleon. It UK had a relatively long period at the top.

So if we assume the US would be top dog for 80 years, the period of chaos should start in a year or two. If we assume 75 years of world domination, then the period of chaos is due to begin.

Posted by: watcher | Jan 20 2023 21:56 utc | 53

My @52

oops ....but not used as such.
....but not used as an offensive force.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 20 2023 21:58 utc | 54

It's difficult to make any sort of assessment given the limited info, but it makes sense to strike North from Zaporozhye to Dnipro, cross the river there, then use the better road net to move West with the ultimate objective being Odessa. The reason for such a circuitous route is the topography that makes advancing along the Black Sea's coastline very difficult and much easier to defend. The condition of remaining Ukie forces is very poor with 6th, 7th, and 8th line troops that were press-ganged--"mobilized"--and have next to no morale and thus break easily being pushed forward with what amounts to no support. Additional heavy pressure all along the FEBA keeps all Ukie troops tied to their positions so none can be detached to act as reserves while additional breakthroughs are occurring forcing Ukie general staff to cobble together reserves from wherever it can while trying to preserve the garrison forces tasked with defense of Kiev and a few other major cities.

Why Odessa? Numerous reasons, vengeance being one. IMO, Russian general staff don't think the ground in the region will freeze this year, so they might as well move since Russia has the numbers and initiative. Plus the inland road net can accommodate the large number of forces involved. Once well lodged on the West side of the Dnieper, Russia can roll down the bank with one "arrow" while the others move West. Of course, my reading of what's happening could be completely erroneous. There's also a political component in going to Odessa, and that's dealing with the traitorous Moldovan government while connecting with loyal Transnistria. The next 48-72 hours should provide confirmation.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 20 2023 22:02 utc | 55


So it looks like Germany has finally come to terms with it's occupied nation status and with a bit of legerdemain are holding off on Leopards leaving the savanna and entering Ukiestan. That zone appears to look as if predatorial cats would find themselves taking on the role of prey.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 20:31 utc | 36

Considering Ramstein is installed in the kitchen, not much protest Germany is allowed.
Note the report states "dozens of counterparts [Minsters of Defence] gathered to discuss and coordinate plans to provide Ukraine with new military aid"

Dozens. No agreement. I would have like to be a fly on the wall.

IMHO, there is dissension among those dozens. World War 11 is still fresh in the minds of EU countries and they are well aware more aid to UKR (a) will not be a game changer and due logistics will come too late (b) know Russia is determined to complete the SMO project (c) Russians do not engage in bluffing. (d) German Industry titans are livid; putting the squeeze on the government aiding and abetting the gutting of industry due to the sanctions on Russian gas. BASF the largest chemical company have closed their facilities to set up in China. Cheap LNG. The EU can't do without Russia's oil and gas.

The next 6 weeks will set the stage for the break-up of NATO.

It's the Financials stupid. And those sanctions on Russia are backfiring big time.
Days ago one million protested in France!! And as unemployed enlarge, the question will arise. Money for UKR but not for us? Guns or butter.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 20 2023 22:05 utc | 56

Posted by: dask | Jan 20 2023 19:50 utc | 28

I second that Big Serge article. It is an EXCELLENT recap of what has occurred and where it's likely to go. A must-read. The link again:

Russo-Ukrainian War: The World Blood Pump
Gradually, and then Suddenly
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-world-blood

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 20 2023 22:15 utc | 57

"Lviv suddenly turned into a trap that slammed shut. All entrances and exits to the city are blocked, on the roads there are many hours and many kilometers of traffic jams.

Each car and bus is checked by the military commissariat for the presence of lads suitable for mobilization. And people just have to sit and wait for their fate. ">https://t.me/ukraina_ru/128092?single"

https://t.me/vicktop55/11747

Wollt ihr den totalen Krieg?

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 20 2023 22:18 utc | 58

@ watcher | Jan 20 2023 21:56 utc | 53

So if we assume the US would be top dog for 80 years, the period of chaos should start in a year or two. If we assume 75 years of world domination, then the period of chaos is due to begin.

Chaos is already here, omnipresent vertically and horizontally and across all of the fields.
It is really difficult to compare then and now as today's flow of information is instantaneous.

If we would be informed today on events we would flock into the cinemas to see the reels and weekly news from the Eastern front, narrated indeed, by the very same but more direct propagandist methods.

To rectify all that I warmly recommend The Atomic Cafe documentary that explains the root of all evil.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 20 2023 22:19 utc | 59

Shout out to karlof1

In the event you missed the link I posted in another thread,you may like to read the best review of Zoltan's Outlook 2023. It is very detailed from the original The Dusk for petrodollar, the dawn of the petroyuan. Enjoy.

A snipet

[.]“China, already the largest buyer of oil and gas from GCC countries, will buy even more in the future, and wants to pay for all of it in renminbi over the next three to five years.” Pozsar also noted that the Chinese leader communicated this “not during the first day of his visit – when he met only the Saudi leadership – but during the second day of his visit – when he met the leadership of all the GCC countries.”

“GCC oil flowing East + renminbi invoicing = the dawn of the petroyuan,” he summed up.

[.] “Why do China’s gold purchases matter in the context of renminbi settlement? Because at the 2018 BRICS Summit, China launched a renminbi-denominated oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and since 2016 and 2017, the renminbi has been convertible to gold on the Shanghai and Hong Kong Gold Exchanges, respectively,” Pozsar explained.

He added: “Money is as money does, and convertibility to gold beats convertibility to dollars.”[.]

I like that flavour. Real sound money.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 20 2023 22:27 utc | 60

If the Ukrainians are expected to launch offensives with this grab-bag of goodies, where is the mobile GBAD and AVE component.

As for the convoy footage, is that a T-55S? Shame somebody decided to set some tyres alight to ‘add drama’, but the pedigree of most of the vehicles suggests barrel scraping by Ukraine.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 20 2023 22:42 utc | 61

Weeb Union Russian Forces Capture 2 Villages and Pushes Further Towards Orikhiv | Zaporizhzhia Front Update

Liberators marching forward.

2hrs ago.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 20 2023 22:54 utc | 62

A conspiracy theory is defined as the plebs expressing doubts about the motives of their betters. How dare those undereducated, illiterate bums question their superiors? Of course, when aristocrats conspire against the plebeians, that's completely different, that's a conspiracy narrative, proclaimed as 'following the science' by all the corporate mass media. That's the difference between a 'plebeconspiracy' and an 'aristoconspiracy'.

Now, I am neither a conspiracy theorist nor a conspiracy narrator. I am a conspiracy assessor. Sort of like Alex Jones but with a bit more polish.

Presented for your approval is today's conspiracy assessment. The Ukraine war will turn out to be long-lasting, albeit with constant threats of WWIII. This will keep the plebeians in constant fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). All of the technosphere, productional system, and general infrastructure of the U.S. and the E.U. will fall prey to controlled demolition. But the plebs will keep their bulging eyeballs on CNN, The New York Times, and so many other horrific aristoconspiracy outlets. So they will never notice the Golden Gate Bridge as it relentlessly fills with homeless tents and the paint peels away. They won't see anything except the endless body-count 'over there'.

Posted by: blues | Jan 20 2023 23:02 utc | 63

Currently manually aggregated/collated Vehicles, Artillery & Air Defense Systems announced (including DOD additional) to be 'Lend-Leased' to Ukraine over coming weeks & months:

🇬🇧 14 Challenger 2 Main Battle Tanks(MBTs) = 1 Tank Company(Coy)
🇵🇱 14 Leopard 2 MBTs (most likely modification of A4) = 1 Tank Coy
🇳🇱🇺🇸🇨🇿 120 T-72M MBTs = 1 Tank Brigade(BDE)(-)
In total = 1 mixed Tank Brigade

🇺🇸 109 Bradley tracked Infantry Fighting Vehicles(IFVs) = ~2 Mechanized(Mech) Battalions(BN)
🇩🇪 40 Marder tracked IFVs = 1 Mech Coy(-)
🇸🇪 50 CV-90 tracked IFVs = 1 Mech Coy
In total = 1 mixed Mech Brigade(+) (Tracked IFVs)

🇬🇧 200 Bulldog(?) tracked APCs = 1 Mech BDE(+)
🇺🇸 100 M113 tracked APCs = 1 Mech BDE(-)
In total = 2 mixed Mech Brigades (Tracked APCs) (Battle Taxis)

🇺🇸 90 Stryker 8x8 wheeled APCs
In total = 1 wheeled Mech BDE(-) (Wheeled APCs)

🇨🇦 200 Senator light 4x4 wheeled armored cars (APCs)
🇺🇸 250 M1117 4x4 wheeled armored cars (APCs)
🇺🇸 53 armored vehicles MRAP (APCs)
🇫🇷 Bastion 4x4 wheeled armored cars (APCs)
In total = 3 Light 4x4 Wheeled mixed Mech Brigades (Armored Car APCs) (Battle Taxis) + 1 wheeled MRAP BN (APCs)

🇫🇷 40 AMX-10RC 105mm 6x6 wheeled light armored cars = 1 Coy(-)

~ total of ~6 mixed Mech Brigades, or ~2 mixed Mech Divisions materiel
All above AFVs, equals ~85 days AFU typical AFVs losses (2.5 months)

🇬🇧 30 155mm AS90 tracked Self Propelled Howitzers(SPH) = ~5 Artillery Batteries, to be supplied over time in batches of ~8
🇺🇸 18 155mm SAU M109A6 SPH = 3 Artillery Batteries
🇺🇸 36 105mm towed howitzers = 6 Artillery Batteries
🇸🇪12 155-mm Archer wheeled Howitzers = 3 Artillery Batteries
🇨🇿26-30 152mm Dana-M2 wheeled Howitzers = 3 Artillery Batteries
🇩🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰 16 Zuzana-2 155mm wheeled howitzers = ~3 Artillery Batteries
🇩🇰🇫🇷 Several 155mm Caesar wheeled howitzers
🇪🇪10 155 mm FH70 towed howitzers, and
🇪🇪10 122mm D30 towed howitzers = 3 Artillery Batteries
In total = ~37 Artillery Batteries materiel
Equals ~19 days AFU typical Artillery/Mortars/MBLRS losses

🇺🇸 350 HMMWV off-road vehicles (Pickup truck substitute)
= light logistics fleet &/or ~2(+) Wheeled 4x4 Light Motorized Brigades.
Equals ~18 days AFU typical misc vehicle losses

🇺🇸 1 Patriot air defense/protection battery
🇩🇪 1 Patriot air defense/protection battery
🇳🇱 1 Patriot air defense/protection battery

🇨🇦 1 NASAMS air defense battery
🇺🇸 6 NASAMS air defense batteries

🇮🇹🇫🇷 1 SAMP/T air defense/protection battery
🇩🇪 3 Iris-T air defense batteries + 3 TRML-4D radars
🇩🇪 2 RADARS TRML-4D

🇺🇸 8 short-range air defense systems AN / TWQ-1 Avenger

An absolutely insane logistical/training/interoperability/sustainment/planning/operational/tactical/procedures/techniques, Dog damned nightmare. Merely only just the myriad of ammunition types/calibers supply & distribution to the FEBA ? :(

Properly trained manpower to operate & support ? AFU properly trained/led soldiers is a critical, ever diminishing resource, let alone even shortfall in forced conscripted untrained Volksturm in sufficient numbers.

Materiel arriving in batches, over weeks & months ... never actually coherently constituted into Units/formations, merely thrown into the grinder, piecemeal ...

Will the AFU collapse before the majority of this imagined weak Frankenstein Army Corps is even ever stood up ?

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 20 2023 23:03 utc | 64

Outraged

Exactly! No specialised mine-clearance vehicles, no tank transporters, no mobile AD, beyond Stingers on wheels. It’s a cynical ploy to stop a collapse of morale and probable military intervention to remove the current government and the basis of a defensive force to block Russian advances beyond the DPR and LPR.

What I find fascinating is the Russian approach to modern deception, they tell their opponent exactly what they are going to do and then do it. Reminds me of hours playing `Diplomacy’, one of the best tactics was to tell people the truth and they’d never believe you, basing their plans on an expected subterfuge that never arrived. They’ve obviously gamed out this NATO escalation, due to desperation, and planned accordingly, hence the statement made last month by the Commander of Strategic Aviation, that his forces would play a greater role in the conflict. Gee, I wonder what he could mean!

Posted by: Milites | Jan 20 2023 23:24 utc | 65

Jackson Hinkle takes a peek at the recent deaths in Zelenky's leadership team.

He cites the recent Wall Street Journal report on the SBU murder of Denis Kireev back in March '22. Why is this being reported by WSJ now?

IMO smells like a rebellion and colour coup being foiled by Zelensky. If this goes bad then where is Z gonna run to? If the USNATO criminal gang is true to form, stay tuned for the frantic screams for a 'cease fire line and demilitarised zone' ploy ;)

11 minute utoob.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 20 2023 23:24 utc | 66

Followup to Outraged | Jan 20 2023 23:03 utc | 64

Moving beyond the distracting & deceptive numbers re nationality, type & quantities ...

🇬🇧 14 Challenger 2 Main Battle Tanks(MBTs) = 1 Tank Company(Coy)
🇵🇱 14 Leopard 2 MBTs (most likely modification of A4) = 1 Tank Coy
🇳🇱🇺🇸🇨🇿 120 T-72M MBTs = 1 Tank Brigade(BDE)(-)

In total = 1 mixed Tank Brigade

🇺🇸 109 Bradley tracked Infantry Fighting Vehicles(IFVs) = ~2 Mechanized(Mech) Battalions(BN)
🇩🇪 40 Marder tracked IFVs = 1 Mech Coy(-)
🇸🇪 50 CV-90 tracked IFVs = 1 Mech Coy

In total = 1 mixed Mech Brigade(+) (Tracked IFVs)

Only the above, excluding to be imminently destroyed indefensible sacrificial Arty, has any substantive combat power.

Two Brigades ?

Operating in an environment of RuAF Air Dominance & increasingly overwhelming ranged Fires dominance ...whilst AFU has No CAS, Air Cover or Operational/Tactical Air Defense ...

AFU ? Is on its death ride to Valhalla.

PS Leopards or Abrams, down the line, one day, maybe, will not change the increasingly lop-sided comparative combat power/manpower/resources/capabilities equation of AFU v RF in Ukraine.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 20 2023 23:26 utc | 67

Likklemore @60

Thanks for the thought, but I have the original paper and links to his others. I asked Hudson what he thought of the Rs stopping expansion of the debt ceiling, and he replied that Biden will use it to gut SS and Medicare--a longstanding aim of the Duopoly. Hudson also hinted that the next Geopolitical Economics episode will focus its discussion on inflation. A commentator at Escobar's VK replying to one of my comments said his sources say the FOMC will raise rates another 50 basis points at its January 31st meeting. Meanwhile Trump's China tariffs remain in place and continue to contribute to inflation. Yet they appear to have had little affect on consumer purchases. One of Martyanov's commentators posted a photo close-up of the US flag focusing on the attached made in China tag, which in the context was very funny. You'd think Congress would pass a law saying all national, state and other flags flown in the country be manufactured here.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 20 2023 23:27 utc | 68

Mark Sleboda has a new Substack post up, on Dmitry Rogozin's injury and his response to France's Macron.

Dmitry Rogozin's Blood-Soaked Message to Macron
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/dmitry-rogozins-blood-soaked-message

And I ask you to hand over the fragment cut by surgeons from my spine to French President Emmanuel Macron. And also tell him that no one will escape responsibility for the war crimes of France, the US, Britain, Germany and other NATO countries in the Donbass. All our victims are on your conscience, as well as the appearance of fascist Ukraine on the map of Europe is also on your conscience.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jan 20 2023 23:36 utc | 69

Yuri reports courtesy Slavyangrad

Yuri:

Zaporozhye direction - thoughts about the offensive of the RF Armed Forces.

Judging by the information received today, the enemy is not yet able to build a continuous line of defense, especially in several echelons, as in the Donbass (not enough forces).

Its defense is built around communications centers in the hope that our units will not go forward, leaving them in the rear. He is given confidence by the fact that last summer the Armed Forces of Ukraine showed how they can work on the communications of our troops. And then there are the Hymers, which can really spoil our plans for us.

The tactics are dangerous for the Armed Forces of Ukraine because if we have much more forces than the enemy expects, and we will be able to solve the issue of covering the rear and the interaction of troops (and here we have a lot of progress compared to the summer, although not everything is as good as we would like ), then this can cause the collapse of the front. And then, in order to prevent this, the enemy will have to urgently transfer forces from other directions.

And there are already so few of them and this can cause crises in other "directions".

And this gives us a unique chance (before spring) to carry out an offensive operation on a large scale.

The only question is can we? In fact, it’s not even the enemy that worries me more in this matter, but the ability of the military branches of the RF Verkhovna Rada to interact on the battlefield, communications, and rear. If critical problems can be avoided here, then there are chances of success.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 20 2023 23:39 utc | 70

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 20 2023 23:03 utc | 64

logistics the pentagon is so rich they buy more f-35 bc they can only keep 1 in 2 running! don't work in war except against taliban.....

tanks need to operate with supports of tracked fighting vehicles such as bradley m-2.

not enough tracked fighting vehicles to keep the infantry from knocking the tanks off as they driver by.

the wheeled fighting vehicles are for keeping the urban ukies quiet.

us' 155 mm stock from middle east going to ukraine.

may take from s korea next.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 20 2023 23:40 utc | 71

karlof1 @ 68

I asked Hudson what he thought of the Rs stopping expansion of the debt ceiling, and he replied that Biden will use it to gut SS and Medicare--a longstanding aim of the Duopoly.

It's what Macron is doing in France with the pensions reform. Pensions are not an entitlement it's a contract that people paid into from their income for 35-40ys that Macron wants to rip up, and if Hudson is right, he always is, then that's on the agenda in the USA.

Seems not too smart to be setting the population against the government with a critical pension betrayal going into an existential two front war. Roosevelt offered up the New Deal introducing new benefits for the first time going into an existential war. It's almost like the west wants to lose or more likely they assume their social and mind controls plus the added economic hopelessness are so complete and airtight that unlike the 1930s there will be no effective push back irregardless what they dump on their populace.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 20 2023 23:47 utc | 72

Can you wash the spots off a leopard?

See these tanks are perfect for Ukraine... if you can believe that image. Take a look and laugh. Wankers! Try that in the soaked black soil country of Ukraine.

Ukrainian tankers will start training on Leopard 2 tanks - Oleksiy Reznikov.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview with Voice of America that a breakthrough had come in the issue of tanks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine agreed with some countries that own Leopard 2 tanks to train Ukrainian crews on them even before Germany made a decision on their transfer.

For our part, we add that the decision to transfer Leopards to Ukraine will be made sooner or later anyway, but now, by the time the tanks are received, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have crews already trained for them, which to some extent levels the consequences of the delay to the enemy.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 20 2023 23:50 utc | 73

Milites @65--

Diplomacy! I played that--golly gee--45 years ago. And yes, truth worked very well..

Outraged @64 & 67--

Guess all those taxis are for the troops being trained outside Ukraine. Never did get an answer to my question about the number of those trainees going AWOL or are they sequestered in a stockade a la Dirty Dozen. Next Ukie Volk grenadiers will be issued Panzerfausts instead of the promised light sabers. I wonder if some future Ukie Stephen Crane will pen the Ukie version of The Red Badge of Courage. And given all the kids being press-ganged into service if one will become the Ukie Audie Murphy.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 20 2023 23:52 utc | 74

From TASS, a zinger from someone other than Zakharova: Wagner founder calls Americans ‘colleagues’ after statement on PMC

MOSCOW, January 20. /TASS/. The founder of the Wagner private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called the Americans "colleagues" after the US announced its intentions to impose sanctions against the group designated as "a transnational criminal organization".

"At last, now the Wagner PMC and the Americans are colleagues. Our relationship from now on can be called "a showdown of criminal clans," Prigozhin said in a comment published on the Telegram channel of his press service on Friday. [Quotation marks are as shown in the source.-DL]

Posted by: David Levin | Jan 20 2023 23:53 utc | 75

paddy #71

Thank you, good news.

The demilitarisation vacuum cleaner is working well.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 20 2023 23:53 utc | 76

Zaporizhzhya NPP almost fully repaired.

Almost all serious damage at the caused by strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been eliminated. Renat Karchaa, adviser to the general director of the Rosenergoatom concern, informed us about this.

Karchaa stressed that at one time full-fledged repair and restoration work was impossible due to intense artillery shelling of the station. "If the situation is calm and if we work closely, then in two or three months, a maximum of six months, the station can be put in full order," he said.

Hopefully the Ukronazis don't start shelling again through desperation with recent liberation advances in the locality.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 21 2023 0:05 utc | 77

So do yourself a favor and keep lurking on this site. There are a number of highly researched and informed posters here. It has become a virtual post PHD level seminar on geopolitical realism.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 20 2023 17:43 utc | 10

Give me a break. This place is a far-left death cult echo-chamber. The amount of propaganda on MoA that passes for informed commentary is unbelievable, straight from the MoD to comments here. Anyone who steps outside the echo- chamber is shouted down as a troll or CIA agent.

For example, you. Who died and made you the arbiter of truth who advises people to "keep lurking". What are YOUR credentials?

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 0:22 utc | 78

@ Milites | Jan 20 2023 23:24 utc | 65

There are 20+ mine clearance kits & other, yet that is only useful to AFU in an imagined offensive. Um, 6(?) vehicle/tank transporters which is totally insufficient, and thence crucial question is the continuous supply of required quantities of POL over a 1000km Supply Route 'thread' from Poland, let alone other stores/ordnance ? See: Battle of the Bulge, Ardennes Offensive '44-'45, Wehrmacht(Heer) WWII.

It’s a cynical ploy to stop a collapse of morale and probable military intervention

Agree with the former, though not the latter. US/NATO current intervention as direct belligerent, given air & ground force/logistics deployments, is untenable, IMV.

There is more & more talk & chatter official & unofficial of US walking away from providing further support to Ukraine beyond June/July. Believe Germany is leveraging this knowledge re US Abrams co-commitment, given US plans to bail-out ...

Indeed, RuAF will be unleashed in targeted zones across Theater & to lesser degree in conjunction with accompanying/controlled/sacrificial RuAF drones, largely free roam, IMV, once AFU collapse is imminent or in-train.

@ paddy | Jan 20 2023 23:40 utc | 71

No AFU trained, experienced, competently led Mechanized Infantry accompanying/screening/protecting AFVs, indeed, extremely vulnerable. Conscripts/untrained infantry suppressed/separated, then AFVs picked off, thence mop-up unsupported infantry ...

2 lots x ~300,000 155mm shells are already being shipped from Strategic forward deployed US Theater war stocks from both Israel/ME & Sth Korea respectively (~600,000). If AFU Army organizationally/structurally collapses, there won't be a prospect of light wheeled Armored cars 'keeping the urban ukies quiet'. The majority of die-hard Nazi's and the lesser 'keen' to volunteer & fight have long gone to Valhalla. They ruled/rule by inculcated intimidating terror/fear, not by actual numbers, ie deployable actual boots on the ground.

US is critically denuding it's CONUS, NATO & globally Theater forward deployed ammunition/missile stocks. Indirect secondary de-militarization of US by RF through its AFU proxy. ;)

Recall Nazi's only got ~5%(?) of the vote in 2019 when Kokaine Hed Zelensky ran on a Minsk 'peace platform', achieved ~71%(?) of the vote ... the remaining nazi's won't be able to control the populace should AFU collapse, which would involve armed, vengeful/embittered former soldiers & forced conscripts fleeing back to villages/towns/cities. No transition to an ongoing massed insurgency after definitive comprehensive conventional defeat on the battlefield is practicable, IMO.

@ karlof1 | Jan 20 2023 23:52 utc | 74

:)

Suspect their tightly confined 24/7 by MP detachments.

Er, Brad Pitt(Audie Murphy facsimile) & Fury!, was absolute BS. Endless Hollywood war porn propaganda, and it ain't going to amount to a can of beans given the Empires might has been exposed. Only gonna get worse for Empire from here on in.

Indeed a mass of derelict & obsolete 'battle taxis' from the '50-'60's. The M1117s are merely updated V100's & v150's we dumped en mass in Vietnam & throughout Latin America to support our various imposed puppet dictators post WWII.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 21 2023 0:23 utc | 79

It’s all about attacks on Crimea and a Ukrainian advance to sever the Crimean land bridge because for the US this has always been about crimea. Odessa is the fall back option. After the coup, the first thing done was say the lease for Sevastopol would be terminated. There was going to be a US base there. The US wants to deny Russia the Black Sea. If it cannot deny it, then the next best thing is to bottle it up.

So Odessa is key, and if the Russians take Odessa the US and UK will walk away and wash their hands. No real value in Ukraine then. You can see the US already making backup, backup plans with wanting to make alexandropolis (IIRC) a naval base added on to Greek plans to improve the port. It sits just out side the Dardanelles, a stone’s through from the Turkish border.

Posted by: Lex | Jan 21 2023 0:27 utc | 80

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 20 2023 19:20 utc | 22

Another fantasy.

Here is the reality about world economies and where they are going.

Russia has a $1.78T economy. Putin has thrown away 30 years of economic progress in a vain attempt to secure his place in history. He secured his place alright, right there with Stalin, Mao, and Pol-Pot.

It will take Russia 30 years to regain its economic stature and just as long to rebuild it military. Once Ukraine chases them back to Russia they will not be heard from again in any of ours lifetimes.

By way of comparison, the US economy is $21T and growing.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 0:35 utc | 81

Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 0:35 utc | 81

meh!

us $21 trillion economy growing bc the federal reserve printed $5 trillion fresh greenbacks since the fake plague, less than 3 years.

who would lend to usa which the government is $32 trillion in debt, and that don't count debt already sign for the next 30 years.

usa is burdened with biden, and the like of you.

i sold my us war bonds in 1991.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 21 2023 0:44 utc | 82

Posted by: Lex | Jan 21 2023 0:27 utc | 80

Don't know much about maritime transportation or naval warfighting do you? The Black Sea is not an international waterway. The only countries who use it are the littoral countries on its borders. It is literally choked off by the Dardanelles. No Navy would operate there in force because there is not enough sea-room to maneuver. The only commercial shipping that passes through it is either bound for or outbound from those littoral countries.

So tell us again why the US wants the Black Sea? Oh, that's right because they are evil and just want to hurt Russia.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 0:44 utc | 83

Posted by: paddy | Jan 21 2023 0:44 utc | 82

The service ($1T) on that $32T in debt is 5% of US GDP ($21T). 5%. Let me repeat, 5% of GDP.

So bottom line, you guys have all swallowed more MoA propaganda and are going to be waiting a long time for the US to collapse.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 0:48 utc | 84

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 20 2023 21:51 utc | 50

Not sure whether they are yet in shelling range of Konstantinovka, but air strikes destroyed ammo depot and are already softening up the next ukie line of defense, passing through that town. Konstantinovka is part of the fourth, de-facto last line for ukie defense in Donbass. It also happens to be the weakest, and most peripheral line (meaning it could potentially be ignored or bypassed all together). Big Serge's article was good on these defense lines.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 21 2023 0:50 utc | 85

“muthaucker” seems to think that the US $21T GDP represents worthwhile productivity, whereas a lot of it is FIRE fluff or even, in the case of medical debt, socially corrosive.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 21 2023 0:56 utc | 86

Big Serge article is the best summary I've seen for the current situation. Really refreshing. So many people talk ad nauseam about the minute developments (e.g Mercouris) without an ability to synthesize the big picture.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 21 2023 1:00 utc | 87

Surrender Crimea to the USA or its proxies, and Russia loses its commercial maritime access to the south. “muthaucker” plays dumb by pretending not to know this.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 21 2023 1:01 utc | 88

“muthaucker” writes:

“Oh, that's right because they are evil and just want to hurt Russia.”

Well, as most of the countries of the world can attest: Evil is as evil does — and “hurt Russia”? That’s been the USA’s mission for the past century.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 21 2023 1:14 utc | 89

I do believe it's possible that the critter here is related to muthaucker as it's an invasive species where it was caught.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 1:20 utc | 90

karlof1: Thanks for reminding me of the funniest documentary ever!

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 21 2023 1:24 utc | 91

"We know they are lying.
They know they are lying.
They know that we know they are lying.
We know that they know that we Know they are lying.
And still they continue to lie."
-Alexander Solzhenitsyn

Posted by: Trisha | Jan 21 2023 1:26 utc | 92

@ LightYearsFromHome | Jan 20 2023 23:47 utc | 72

It's almost like the west wants to lose ...

By their decision cycle, planning & actions ineptness, whether wanted or not.

Clearly not even outline alternate contingency Oplans were prepared beyond the initial (going back at least 8 years) 'Plan for Victory!' to conquer Donbass and defeat RF, triggering collapse & dismemberment come Feb2822. Which has ever since resulted in stasis like indecision/inaction since, RF pre-empted on Feb2422.

Seems the assimilated Propaganda tropes/beliefs re self & other of 76 odd years are so embedded ... rational, logical reasoning & calculus & planning is impossible given the entrenched biases & false believes from top down. :(

Have the Executive, State, Defense (Truthfully the olde: Dept of War!), Agencies all been replaced, body snatched, by unqualified zero experience/knowledge/qualifications 'Project Managers' ? Appears so.

More of it, should be encouraged, only accelerates Empires collapse.

@ Lex | Jan 21 2023 0:27 utc | 80

Take Crimea(& of necessity Kherson Oblast) & hold Odessa, as a fall back consolation, 2nd order 'Victory', in their dreams ?

Yet, how ?

Indications are RF appears to, after strengthening, stiffening & reinforcing the entire 700Km+ line, have deployed it's uncommitted additional activated forces in 3 Tank/Mech Armies (~4 heavy Divisions, 40K+ each) Nth, Center & Sth, as Operational forward Reserves, for as situation dictates/presents additional Defense via Counter-Attack/Counter-Offensive or outright Offensive Ops.

The AFU has no answer to these, as yet, uncommitted formations.

The approaches to RF Kherson positions & Crimea are now a modern concrete & bunkers pseudo-'Stalin Line' ...

@ karlof1 | Jan 21 2023 1:20 utc | 90

Holy Nightmare! Batman!

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 21 2023 1:31 utc | 93

@ unimperator #7

I don't do Twitter so I was a bit shocked when I watched your video and it was immediately buzz swarmed by Ukie backers and Russian haters. The first ones were claiming it was from 2014. I have no idea of the date, there did seem to be an old T-34 burning in that column but then again the AFU have got out old WWI Maxims so who would put it past them using old T-34s? But, the main thing was the intensity of the Twitter mob attack. I don't know if the video is new or old but its amazing at the amount of "detail" these people supposedly have, "You (the Russians) have lost 13,000 guys in the past 23 days"... Wow, some serious 5th generation warfare. I wonder how much NATO coin is going into the massive Psych Ops on "reality" that is underway...?

Posted by: DakotaRog | Jan 21 2023 1:31 utc | 94

Muthaucker | Jan 21 2023 0:48 utc | 84

meh,

chickenfeed:


$1t each year and exploding to service clinton/bush/obama/biden's debt!!!!

the bloated 'discretionary' budget the lame duck democrats passed is $1.7t

debt service will be 70% of outlays soon as the federal reserve stops printing.

the other $2.7t of federal outlays is mandatory spending like social security medicare and military pensions...

so with debt load 85% of biden's bloat will go for things that do not shoot rooskies or buy useless f-35's!

keep digging!

Posted by: paddy | Jan 21 2023 1:37 utc | 95

IMO PREDICTION

At this stage of increasing western support, Russia now sees itself as actually at war with NATO!!!

Is that Russia is looking at attacking NATO. It will be most likely conventional and designed to cripple the Ukraine war support network in Romania and Poland ( + missile sites, but also North Sea (for UK on NS1 and 2 ). It will show NATO how serious Russia is and see if the west is ready to have WW3 over Ukraine. If NATO decides to fight Russia has prepared defense lines all along theirs and Belarus's borders. If NATO attacks Russia it could escalate fast.

This is where it gets interesting!

Posted by: Peace | Jan 21 2023 1:38 utc | 96

aristodemos #10

"So do yourself a favor and keep lurking on this site. There are a number of highly researched and informed posters here. It has become a virtual post PHD level seminar on geopolitical realism."

Thank you and well said. MoA is a grand example of the power of the collective. Your adversary needs to read this (linked days ago)

Christian Gerlach, professor of modern history at the University of Bern, Switzerland, is one of the world’s leading experts in the history of the Holocaust and the Nazi war of annihilation against the Soviet Union. In 1998, he defended his dissertation about the Nazi occupation of Belarus at the Technical University of Berlin, where he had studied under Wolfgang Scheffler, a pioneer of Holocaust research in Germany. Published in 1999 in German under the title “Kalkulierte Morde” (Calculated Murders), it was a pioneering study and to this day ranks among the most important works on the Nazi war of annihilation.

Other major works of Gerlach include the two English-language volumes Extremely Violent Societies: Mass Violence in the Twentieth-Century World (Cambridge University Press, 2010) and The Extermination of the European Jews (Cambridge University Press, 2016). With Clemens Six (University of Groningen, Netherlands), Gerlach also co-edited The Palgrave Handbook of Anti-Communist Persecutions (PalgraveMacmillan, 2020).

In the interview linked above Gerlach has this to say regarding social strata ans its reflection in the hierarchy of the German military:

My work did not only show the responsibility of different parts of the German state and its elites for mass violence but also the eager participation and initiatives for violence from mid- and low-level functionaries (and big but also small business, actually). And I found—like other scholars did in the 1990s—that many non-Nazis were among the persecutors. The German army, for example, mirrored the class structures of Nazi Germany and was not fully Nazified, but it did provide some freedom for lower echelons’ own initiative and action, which, for the most part, worked pro-violence, that is, against a milder stance. One aspect of the activities of non-Nazis was the active involvement of opponents and conspirators against Hitler as mid- and high-level military officers in various policies and acts of violence, especially in the targeting of Soviet civilians during anti-guerrilla warfare and in killing certain types of prisoners of war. They acted like this out of national chauvinism and anti-communism, among other reasons.

To publish about this blocked at once any options for me to be hired at many German universities. My findings stirred academic controversy (I also enjoyed some support). In particular, I was attacked in the mass media and in parliament by politicians, including a former German president and former federal ministers, who accused me of spoiling the youth and “smearing the resistance.” In their view, these opponents of Hitler symbolized the “other” Germany, an immaculate conservative Germany—which, however, did not exist.

We see the same violence from the Ukrainian state apparatus against Ukrainian citizens today. Plus the total disregard for life.

Gerlach also discusses the material interests of the elite as they pursued personal enrichment and that brings to mind the grand theft of Ukrainian farmlands by agribusiness giants plundering at the expense of a nation crippled by its nazi war machine and accompanying gangs of murderous and intimidating thugs. No one could organise any form of opposition in that atmosphere.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 21 2023 1:41 utc | 97

Peace | Jan 21 2023 1:38 utc | 96

i suspect the strategic planners in russia follow napoleon's dictate:

'never interfere with your enemy when they are making a mistake'

newer otan/usa weapons require a dense supply chain, the reach back for usa equipment is the continental usa, even for those based in germany.

the stuff is not very reliable and breaks occur all the time.

the spare parts and fuel burden to say nothing of tecnician requirements is immense......

and lockheed technicians can bug out when the arty starts falling.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 21 2023 1:46 utc | 98

Peace | Jan 21 2023 1:38 utc | 96

i suspect the strategic planners in russia follow napoleon's dictate:

'never interfere with your enemy when they are making a mistake'

newer otan/usa weapons require a dense supply chain, the reach back for usa equipment is the continental usa, even for those based in germany.

the stuff is not very reliable and breaks occur all the time.

the spare parts and fuel burden to say nothing of tecnician requirements is immense......

and lockheed technicians can bug out when the arty starts falling.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 21 2023 1:46 utc | 99

Outraged 64

Look at that list a couple of times and come to the realization that it did not include the legendary "Partridge in a Pear Tree".

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 21 2023 1:46 utc | 100

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