⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Another UAV Raid on the Crimean Peninsula⚡️
This morning, Ukrainian formations made another attempted raid on the territory of the Crimean peninsula from #Odessa using Mugin-5 drones equipped with a grenade dropping system.
♦️Chronicle of Events:
▪️ At 06.00, a group of five Mugin-5 drones took off from the Shkolny airfield in #Odessa in the direction of Cape Tarkhankut on an already “piloted” route. An hour later, a second wave of UAVs headed towards Crimea from the same airfield along a similar route.
▪️After reaching a certain point over the Black Sea, both groups of UAVs adjusted their route, heading towards Karkinit Bay and Bakalskaya Spit.
▪️The Ukrainian UAVs then entered the republic’s airspace via the village of Steregushche in the Razdolnenskiy district of #Crimea. Three Mugin were shot down on the approach, while the others infiltrated further towards #Novoozernoye.
▪️The two remaining UAVs were destroyed by units of the 31st Air Defence Division near #Novoozernoye, while the rest returned to the coastal Black Sea waters via Donuzlav Bay.
▪️ Four more drones were hit near the northern breakwater in Sevastopol towards Cape Chersonese and Belbek airfield, while one went down in the sea near Novofedorovka.
♦️Specifics:
First, the AFU changed the timing of the raid. Almost every previous attack had been carried out at night or in the early hours of the morning. This time, however, the period between 08:00 and 10:00 was chosen.
Secondly, the attempted strikes were again carried out without objective control by NATO reconnaissance aircraft. A similar raid was carried out on the peninsula on 24 December last year.
Third, the chosen area for the infiltration into the territory of Crimea completely coincides with the previous attempted strikes. The ultimate targets were most likely Russian Aerospace Forces airfields on the peninsula, including #Saki and #Belbek.
NATO’s satellite constellation has been actively imaging these sites in high detail for the last few days, as well as Gvardeyskoye, Dzhankoy, the Black Sea Fleet ship anchorage in #Sevastopol and the positions of mobile air defence units.
♦️ What next?
The Ukrainian command varies tactics in the use of drones, periodically changing the timing of attacks and the types of drones used, ranging from commercial Mugins to aerostats. More UAVs were dispatched in two waves today compared to past raids.
The purpose of this morning’s action by the AFU was the same – to assess the state of air defence by identifying SAM and mobile squadron positions and the least defended areas in the air defence.
It is likely that in the next few days attempts at strikes will continue. And this time with a high degree of probability the US RQ-4B UAV, which flew from the Sigonella airbase to the Larissa airbase in #Greece, will be observing the actions of the RF Armed Forces.
This will increase the operational efficiency of the RQ-4B near Russian borders. Eight MQ-9A Reaper UAVs have already been at the Greek base since November, and the arrival of the Global Hawk demonstrates #Greece’s increased role in the US geopolitical deterrence strategy.

https://t.me/sitreports/3412

Posted by: Down South | Jan 16 2023 16:43 utc | 3

@ bevin | Jan 16 2023 16:36 utc | 1
i guess that is why galacia sided with germany.. they were into their own form of holomoder, but it had to oriented the right way…
@ Buffalo_Ken | Jan 16 2023 16:42 utc | 2
i would like to think positive too.. unfortunately one side wants to prolong the agony.. i’ll leave you to figure out what side that is..

Posted by: james | Jan 16 2023 17:01 utc | 5

Not to get caught up in a string of comments, but @paddy, are you referring to post #2 or #4 with respect to your feedback to me supposedly in post #6?
But frankly, I know the answer doesn’t matter.

Posted by: Buffalo_Ken | Jan 16 2023 17:06 utc | 7

. . .current “news” headlines from France 24:
EU says deadly Russian strike on Dnipro apartment building constitutes ‘war crime’
On the ground, Ukrainian officials said the death toll from Russia’s missile strike on a residential building in Dnipro had risen to at least 40, with hopes of finding survivors in the rubble rapidly fading.
then the article goes on…(implying but not saying Russia)
 UN says more than 7,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine
More than 7,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since Russia invaded its neighbor last February, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).
“Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with wide area effects, including shelling from heavy artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles and air strikes,” it said in a statement.
The UN rights office said it had confirmed 7,031 civilian deaths but believes actual casualty tolls are “considerably higher” given the pending corroboration of many reports and the inaccessibility of areas where intense fighting is taking place. Most of the recorded civilian deaths occurred in government-held areas of Ukraine. . .here
>I guess they’re calling Donbas, with all its civilian artillery casualties, a government-held area of Ukraine. Killing their own citizens!
>Then, for the record, there’s the NATO attacks, including ‘shock and awe,” on Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan which have killed tens of thousands.
>Finally, we have had “Russian strikes” before which turned out to be Ukr strikes.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2023 17:18 utc | 9

@ Don Bacon | Jan 16 2023 17:18 utc | 9
this rt article offers an alternative viewpoint which seems much more likely.. however it doesn’t go along with the empires propaganda and it will not be reported in the western corporate media..
Kremlin reacts to blast at residential building in Ukraine
article today from awful avalanche –
Ukraine War Day #327: A Virus With A Face
“Returning hate for hate multiplies hate, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Hate multiplies hate, violence multiplies violence, and toughness multiplies toughness in a descending spiral of destruction.
Martin Luther King, Jr.

Posted by: james | Jan 16 2023 17:31 utc | 11

The Polish army began to fight in Ukraine. This was stated by military commander Yevgeny Linin.
“Fighters of the Russian assault groups liberating the settlements of Donbass almost regularly encounter units where commands are given in Polish,” Linin said.
According to him, the loss of combat capability of a significant number of formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is forcing Ukraine’s allies to use their military formations under the guise of PMCs.
In addition, confirmation of the participation of regular Polish forces directly on the line of contact is NATO military equipment, which has not yet been officially delivered to Ukraine, but is already being used, for example, the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, as well as Polish GROT assault rifles, the military commander stressed.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/47505
A year from now areas of Poland will look just like the Donbas, you’d think they’d have gotten wise after a few centuries of being in the middle btwn eastern and western Europe. Alas, the hyena of Europe being true to its nature.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2023 17:36 utc | 13

@ LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2023 17:36 utc | 13
A year from now areas of Poland will look just like the Donbas, you’d think they’d have gotten wise after a few centuries of being in the middle btwn eastern and western Europe. Alas, the hyena of Europe being true to its nature.
Yes, and despite George Washington’s advice to stay out of Europe more than a couple hundred years ago the US is caught in the middle, yet again.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2023 17:46 utc | 15

Don Bacon: “caught in the middle” implies, if not pure innocence, then at least a lack of agency.
The opposite is surely the case.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 16 2023 17:56 utc | 17

Don Bacon: I think the “fact” is that the USA is standing behind Europe and prodding it into confrontation with Russia. So I’d be tempted to say that Europe is “caught in the middle”—except that Europe hardly seems to mind.
YMMV of course.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 16 2023 18:16 utc | 19

Nothing will happen to Poland. They’re aggressive, they’re puppets and Duda runs the same brain software as Zely, but you can’t tell me that you think Russia will hit Poland when they’re afraid to hit Kiev and the other puppets there. While soldiers are still dying and missiles and artillery daily over markets, hospitals and other civilian areas in Russia. 10 drone attacks today in Sevastopol.
With such military leadership and the 5 soldiers they sent there, you think they’ll reach new Russian borders, then reach former Ukr borders and fight in Poland in a year? I would be surprised if they liberated just the new regions in a year

Posted by: rk | Jan 16 2023 18:18 utc | 21

@James #11
That building was hit with massive force, either Ukraine had a few soldiers in that building or some sort of setup on the roof. That quote in no way denies that the building was the target. “Ukraine said”
Similar to the statement “we don’t NEED Iranian drones” lol those Russians are a funny bunch
Just like Putin ‘yelling’ at the defense guy the other day. “Where are the contracts” lol. The actual point was saying your new helicopters are ready and so are the planes.. The “contracts contracts” was trolling the Yanks who sell contracts but have people wait years for actual weapons.

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 16 2023 18:31 utc | 23

On the previous thread, Outraged provided plenty of facts as to why the donated tanks won’t amount to anything aside from adding more scrap to the pile to be recycled later. The point I want to raise is what exists beyond what’s being donated: What new top-of-the-line MBTs, SPAs, MLRSs, APCs, and ADs exist for NATO to supply? In other words, what remains in the military pantry to be put to use? I don’t see or know of anything, which is why I stated NATO has no weapons capable of defeating Russia–and we can look into the future at what doesn’t exist to supply to Taiwan. Even if elite NATO troops are committed, what chance do they have given their junk weaponry? Think Shermans with green crews against Tigers, with the latter having plenty of fuel, parts, and well trained crews. And then there’s the utter lack of NATO air-power. Will NATO try to seriously contest the skies over Ukraine to try and alter that balance so its ground forces have a chance? IMO, I don’t see how it can avoid trying given NATO doctrine.
So, where does the above leave the situation? A tawdry bunch of unfit tanks and APCs that no trained NATO soldier would want to man are being supplied and accomplish nothing leaving NATO with only one other genuine means of altering the situation: initiate an air war for control of Ukie airspace to change the dynamic on the ground. That cannot be done by gifting Ukraine with F-15 & F-16 planes without pilots, ground support and logistical chain. The only way it can be done is for NATO to become directly involved. Now, if I can think up this scenario, you can bet Russia has too and is ready.
The question then becomes, what will the politicians do since their overall narrative has consisted of Ukraine’s winning/Russia’s losing? Will NATO sacrifice Poland, the Baltics and perhaps Romania to wage the air war? What condition are NATO’s stocks of air force munitions? Are they as feeble as what we’ve seen for artillery?
Those are my series of questions for today and the near future as NATO becomes pressed to make what will be a very hard choice if it intends to alter the situation in Ukraine as in reality it has no more cards to play.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 16 2023 18:45 utc | 25

Don Bacon @ 15

Yes, and despite George Washington’s advice to stay out of Europe more than a couple hundred years ago the US is caught in the middle, yet again.

Too late now, we own it, we get to break it.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2023 18:51 utc | 27

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2023 18:22 utc | 22
I think portraying the conflict as the US caught between Europe and Russia is the CIA explanation released to the MSM, in other words a complete falsehood.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jan 16 2023 19:03 utc | 29

About #14 “14 crews have already retired from the Polish army.” This means that 14 tanks with their (now civilian, thus NATO troops no more) crews, and maybe ‘retired’ mechanics, too, are already on their way to the front.

Posted by: mauro | Jan 16 2023 19:08 utc | 31

Don Bacon @ 15
Yes, and despite George Washington’s advice to stay out of Europe more than a couple hundred years ago the US is caught in the middle, yet again.
Too late now, we own it, we get to break it.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2023 18:51 utc | 27
Problem is, this time the US will likely end up broken as well.
Which could be a good thing.

Posted by: Michigan Dude | Jan 16 2023 19:16 utc | 33

@LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2023 17:36 utc | 13
It would be poetic justice if Polish belligerence made it possible for Russia to regain Poland and the Baltics, perhaps returning Silesia and Prussia to Germany, in order to align with historic regions and establish more defensible borders.
The shades of Frederick and Catherine, not to mention Molotov and von Ribbentrop, might approve of such a resolution.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 16 2023 19:18 utc | 35

@buffalo ken
do you know uncle Remus’ tale about br’er rabbit wanting to be thrown in the briar patch?
who gets more out of being in this briar patch
at this point in tectonics of empire?

Posted by: paddy | Jan 16 2023 19:22 utc | 37

Hermit: The Epstein Honey Trap explains some but not all cases. Others are bribed. Yet others opportunistically seek a place at the table with the Really Big Boys. And yet others prove receptive to the tender ministrations of hit men economic and otherwise.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 16 2023 19:28 utc | 39

@karlof1 | Jan 16 2023 18:45 utc | 25
Even if they supply every last pilot, and add in all of the flight capable, F-18s, F-22s and F-35s, plus every surveillance and control asset their members possess, all they will be contributing, after six to eight weeks, is a lot of weeping relatives, a lot more valuable scrap metal distributed across the plains of Ukraine and, perhaps lesser amounts in neighboring countries. That is not only because Russian anti-aircraft measures are 3 generations ahead of aircraft and their defensive systems, but because the inherent economic asymmetry in missile vs aircraft and crew cost means that economics dictate that even where many missiles are required to destroy a single aircraft, it is still a victory for the missile deployer.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 16 2023 19:37 utc | 41

@Hermit, #26:
Your EDNKH thesis explains the likes of Stoltenberg/Duda/Macron/Habeck, et al. But how do you explain the likes of Baerbock/Van De Leyen?

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 16 2023 19:42 utc | 43

Oriental Voice: That’s sort of where I was going. Certainly I can’t imagine any 14-year-old boy sex slave (did Epstein have boys anyway?) being able to “get it up” for the likes of UvdL. I mean, there are only so many male gerontophiles out there, and maybe Mme. Macron got the last one.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 16 2023 19:50 utc | 45

Did Russia just play a hidden card? The one that has been rumored to knock out satellite communications?
https://en.reseauinternational.net/les-systemes-dalerte-et-de-reconnaissance-de-lotan-ont-ete-completement-neutralises-lors-des-frappes-russes-daujourdhui/

Posted by: Mary | Jan 16 2023 19:54 utc | 47

Here we go again
New Evidence Of Torture Of Russian POWs By Ukrainians Emerged
https://southfront.org/new-evidence-of-torture-of-russian-pows-by-ukrainians-emerged/
Why are russian soldiers ALWAYS caught, ALWAYS left behind like this? The incompetence will haunt Putin to some penalty sooner or later by the russian population.
Hundreds, perhaps thousands of russian troops have been caught during the war.
In Afghanistan, Iraq wars, in sum, US had almost no soldiers taken by the enemy!
There are a retardation in the russian military command no dobut. IQ of a 75 by now.

Posted by: Zchanon | Jan 16 2023 19:56 utc | 49

us air doctrine include achieving ‘dominance’ over the battlefield.
first would be take out the Sam, that would include engaging sams in Russia.
would motive Russia long range fire on the bases where us attack, reconn, and refueling aircraft are flown from…..
if nuke don’t come, the next phase is attrition russian air to air fighters, again both side will freely cross borders.
to begin us needs to deploy all the Thad, meads and point defense patriots from other theaters.
while the us figures out how to field several large lakes of jet fuel, a mountain of iron and serious electricity.
all if Russia does not interfere.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 16 2023 19:59 utc | 51

@malenkov, #45:
Sorry I didn’t read the thread far enough to catch your post before I hurriedly post a tongue in cheek remark to Hermit’s post. Yes, you did imply the same line of thought as I did. You were thinking 14 year old boys. But could there be 3 year old dogs or pigs?

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 16 2023 20:03 utc | 53

Oriental Voice: You have nothing to be sorry about! As for the dogs and pigs, I’m guessing they’d prefer Catherine the Great’s (apocryphal) horse.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 16 2023 20:07 utc | 55

@ Oldcutlas | Jan 16 2023 19:06 utc | 30
Russia has made clear to the US and NATO, that any NATO aircraft entering Ukrainian airspace will be shot down…
Expanding that thought, current plans have NATO tanks entering the Ukraine battlespace.
Certainly the capability, or lack of it in the scenario, of tanks is important. Also important is the PR campaign associated with the US/UK war against Russia.

Sunak told reporters earlier this week that he had asked Defense Secretary Ben Wallace to go “further and faster with our support for Ukraine, including the provision of tanks.” It would mark the first time Britain has supplied heavy armor to Kyiv following Russia’s all-out invasion in February.

Now if Russia could somehow cause an enroute problem in the shipment of these tanks, which is a well- publicized expansion of the war, . . .relish the thought (of UK tank destruction).

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2023 20:15 utc | 57

@ karlof1 25
those are trillion dollar questions. And the fear….
Will NATO try to seriously contest the skies over Ukraine to try and alter that balance so its ground forces have a chance? IMO, I don’t see how it can avoid trying given NATO doctrine.
The US-led NATO doctrine:
Desperation meets reality and when desperate, any straw is an oak tree.
In the next 3 months,
WW111 will be made formal, now spoken in whispers.
Neocons spent 20 years in Afghanstan v. the Taliban and can’t afford to lose in UKR, a defacto NATO member. Indeed, defeat puts the collective west, financially and military, on the wrong side of history. They thought Russia was bluffing.
This afternoon….
Poland’s PM: Ukraine’s defeat may lead to WWIII – EU state’s PM
The prime minister of Poland has urged Germany to send tanks to Ukraine

RT: Ukraine’s defeat may lead to the Third World War, so Germany and other NATO countries must step up and send Kiev more weapons, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki claimed on Monday.
Speaking in Berlin at a celebration of German politician Wolfgang Schauble’s 50-year career, Morawiecki insisted that Germany must allow the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Poland and Finland have promised Kiev the tanks, but need formal German permission to actually hand them over.
“Today Ukrainians are fighting not only for their freedom, but also in defense of Europe,” Morawiecki insisted. “I call on the German government to act decisively and deliver all types of weapons to Ukraine.”
“The defeat of Ukraine may become a prelude to World War III, so today there is no reason to block support for Kiev and postpone matters indefinitely,” he added.[.]

AND
Kremlin’s spox, Peskov today: Those tanks, note well.
NATO tanks ‘will burn’ – Kremlin

RT:
The delivery of heavy weapons to Kiev will prolong the conflict but won’t alter its outcome, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman says

Miscalculating in Berlin, Brussels and D.C. It’s the unthinkable as all else failed.
High stakes. Uruguay looks inviting.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 16 2023 20:28 utc | 59

@Oriental Voice | Jan 16 2023 19:42 utc | 43
Your EDNKH thesis explains the likes of Stoltenberg/Duda/Macron/Habeck, et al. But how do you explain the likes of Baerbock/Van De Leyen?
My contention is that NATO and EU are illegal entities, because they largely negate the UN Charter: “The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.”
In fact, the sovereignty of European countries has been degraded and lessened by these unique organizations, these blocs, which exist only in Europe.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2023 20:30 utc | 61

#Oriental Voice | Jan 16 2023 19:50 utc | 46
Given what has happened to far better machines on this field, I think they would be renamed as “BICs”. Disposable lighters. At least if the Ukraine could find enough fuel for them. Otherwise they might be knows as “PoS”, crappy disposable lighters unfit for any purpose but stressing supply lines and adding to the training burden on an army without men in a country without a hope.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 16 2023 20:48 utc | 63

What country is available with any credibility to broker/negotiate a Diplomatic resolution for a lasting Peace?
What will U.S. Neocons and European WEFfies do with their money on a ruined earth ?
Russia will not survive a defeat in the Ukraine, but Europe and the U.S. can always claim a win in the Ukraine, even if there is not 1 Ukrainian left alive.

Posted by: kupkee | Jan 16 2023 20:59 utc | 65

The above are the painful question that ought to be discussed at the WEF-fest in Davos, but given who’s been invited and the proposed agenda, those questions won’t be entertained but staunched.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 16 2023 20:29 utc | 60
Big question at Davos. Why are Soros and Klaus Schwab, founder WEF, not attending this year…conflict is schedule!!!
Why? Really
TWIT Linked
I read Soros’ Twittered

Due to an unavoidable scheduling conflict, regrettably I cannot attend the @WEF Annual Meeting in Davos this year as I have in the past years. I plan to deliver a speech in Munich on the eve of the MunSecConf. Details to follow.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 16 2023 21:02 utc | 67

Aleksandr Kharchenko on tank tactics (old posters may remember Aleksandr Kharchenko and Sergey Shilov filming great Syrian war documentaries for ANNA NEWS; both are now working for RIA Novosti, and Svideteli Bayraktara is their joint Telegram channel):

Since we are talking about the use of tanks on the battlefield, let’s travel back in time to 7 years ago. On October 8, 2015, social networks rejoiced: “Government forces advanced 70 km north of the city of Hama in one day and liberated the city of Kafr Nabudah.”
Russia had been officially fighting in Syria for a little over a week. The Russian advisers, having developed a plan, concentrated an armored fist on the plains of Hama and decided to crush the enemy’s Latamina bridgehead with one throw. To be honest, the official reports had little to do with reality. And talk of 70 km advancement had nothing to do with reality. This offensive turned into a rout (Kafr Nabudah was liberated only in 2019). American TOW systems destroyed a lot of Syrian armor, which led to the surrender of the city of Murek and a number of other villages. It should have been realized then that the Soviet dogma “tank wedges towards the English Channel” was outdated.
The Syrians in subsequent years (largely without our participation) rethought the meaning of the tank on the battlefield and began to act effectively. In open spaces, the platoon received a tank under its command. The infantrymen went forward, identified enemy firing points and called in their armor to destroy them. The soldiers went ahead of the tanks, which significantly reduced the loss of vehicles on the plains.
In the cities, tactics changed. Each tank had its own observer. He flew a quadcopter over an armored vehicle and liased with the infantry. The observer, seeing the whole picture of the battle, literally told the tankers to turn the barrel to the right by 30 degrees and fire 3 shells into the next building entrance. Such interaction made it possible to break through the enemy’s fortifications even in tightly packed Arab buildings.
As I have repeatedly said, we learned nothing from the Syrian experience, so on February 24, armored columns went forward, having practically no connection with the infantrymen. The losses of those days can be judged by numerous videos on enemy resources.
Now the Russian army has to gnaw through enemy defenses in depth, so the meaning and use of the tank on the battlefield must be rethought. Stop stepping on a rake and throwing armored fists forward. We already have enough examples of successful offensives.
I was in the spring near Izyum. They tried to liberate the fucking Kamenka with tank strikes… As a result, this tactic completely failed and the special forces cleared the village on foot. The Wagners, who have been talked about so much lately, are also advancing in small groups of infantry. Neither Popasnaya nor Soledar were taken head-on by a tank attack.
So what should be done? Firstly, abandon the tactics of tank breakthroughs. Secondly, each tank must be assigned an observer. He must provide coordination between the steel monster and the infantry. Thirdly, each tank must be lead by its own quadcopter. The cost of such innovations will be minimal compared to the cost of machines, and efficiency will increase significantly.

Posted by: S | Jan 16 2023 21:17 utc | 69

Why are my posts disappearing?

Posted by: Mary | Jan 16 2023 21:22 utc | 71

bevin
http://johnhelmer.net/

Posted by: downtownhaiku | Jan 16 2023 21:38 utc | 73

Posted by: bevin | Jan 16 2023 19:40 utc | 42
I often had to think of Wallerstein’s prediction in the last months. But I think he made it in 2003 in “Decline of American Power: The U.S. in a Chaotic World.”
Another prediction, made some years later by Eric Hobsbawm in his last interview with the German weekly “Stern”:

S: Former French Prime Minister Laurent Fabius fears “social revolts,” and those, says SPD presidential candidate Gesine Schwan, could become a threat to democracy.
H: Anything is possible. Inflation, deflation, hyperinflation. How do people react when all security disappears, they are thrown out of their lives, their life plans are brutally destroyed? My historical experience tells me that we are heading – I cannot rule this out – toward a tragedy. Blood will flow, more than that, a lot of blood, the suffering of people will increase, also the number of refugees. And there is something else I would not like to rule out: a war that would then become a world war – between the USA and China.
S: That is nonsense.
H: No.
S: Okay, that’s just absurd, that thought!
H: No. Right now, I readily admit, that scenario seems very unlikely. Right now, China and the U.S. seem to complement each other, even support each other; they seem downright complementary. But in both the Pacific and Asian regions, their competition is becoming increasingly fierce. There is no basis for a lasting friendship between these two great powers. /BLOCKQUOTE>

Posted by: Moses | Jan 16 2023 21:42 utc | 75

Translated, RF MOD clobber list:
16.01.2023
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
372 aircraft,
200 helicopters,
2,885(+3) unmanned aerial vehicles,
401 anti-aircraft missile systems, (Each AD Radar destroyed, no(Soviet pre ’91) spares/replacements, effectively: Unclaimed Kills.)
7,537(+12) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
982(+1) multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
3,836(+5) field artillery and mortar guns, and
8,066(+14) special military vehicles.
Comment:
Total materiel destruction losses over ONLY last twelve(24) days (Since Dec2322 inclusive), alone:
21 aircraft,
11 helicopters,
181 unmanned aerial vehicles,
2 anti-aircraft missile systems, (Each AD Radar destroyed, no(Soviet pre ’91) spares/replacements, effectively: Unclaimed Kills.)
330 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
46 multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
134 field artillery and mortar guns, and
364 special military vehicles.
180 artillery/MBLRS/Mortars, (Equivalent total loss of ~30 FULL strength Artillery Batteries)
330 armored fighting vehicles, (Equivalent total loss of ~7 FULL strength Tank or Mech BNs, or ~2+ FULL Armored Brigades)
~364 logistic/transport/support vehicles. Irreplaceable. Crippling re all affected formations ability to merely, exist, out of combat.
On current trends, assumptive no significant change re operations, cumulative materiel destruction losses Dec2322-Jan2323 (31 days) projected (Conservative/low-ball given Christmas/New Years period & Orthodox Christmas unilateral ceasefire(36hrs)):
233 artillery/MBLRS/Mortars, (Equivalent total loss of ~39 FULL strength Artillery Batteries)
426 armored fighting vehicles, (Equivalent total loss of ~9 FULL strength Tank or Mech BNs, or ~3 FULL Armored Brigades)
~470 logistic/transport/support vehicles. Irreplaceable. Crippling re all affected formations ability to merely, exist, out of combat.
Note: The above does not take into account accompanying manpower losses KIA/WIA due materiel destruction (crews/transported), nor re neutralization/suppression.
How many ‘salvaged/refurbished/to be scrapped’ AFVs (MBTs/IFVs/APCs) are on-the-way, someday ?
Dec0422(?) Gen Zalushny, accompanied by Kokain Hed Zed, requested 300 MBT, ~650 AFVs(IFVs/APCs) & 500 Artillery (Howitzers/MBRLS/Mortars) … to Win the War …

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 16 2023 21:52 utc | 77

Posted by: S | Jan 16 2023 21:17 utc | 69
Aleksandr Kharchenko was a lawyer, then turned journalist. What the fuck does he know about tank tactics? Is he actually in the middle of the Russian fighting? Has he talked to actual Russian commanders? If so, who are they and what did they say specifically to support his allegations?
What evidence does he provide that any of the Russian advances which allegedly failed were strictly tank advances? Where is the evidence that any significant number of tanks have been destroyed? Where is his evidence that most of the Russian advances against the Donbass fortifications were NOT first preceded by major artillery, and only then by tank and infantry advances?
Anyone can make fucking assertions. He can provide the evidence or STFU. This is the same bullshit we here from all these so-called “journalists” and Telegram bloggers.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 16 2023 21:55 utc | 79

Zanon @49
So now you’re bragging about your I.Q.? Get out of mom’s basement for awhile and enjoy some fresh air.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 16 2023 22:01 utc | 81

An article from December on Poland’s military buildup.
https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/12/09/up-to-200000-poles-to-be-called-up-for-military-training-next-year/

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2023 22:08 utc | 83

He’s right on that last point, there has been much activity of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, videos of Sarmats going into silos, mobile ICBM always on maneuvers, Bears always in the air out over the globe. Announced today the Poseidons now have their warheads and are ready to deploy on the Belgorod.
Granted all this is scheduled stuff, on the agenda long before the SMO, and of course the Russians are making a visible point, but from the telegram channels there does indeed seem to be a lot of commotion lately around the atomics.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2023 21:52 utc | 78

Let’s pray these are viable scenarios:
1) surgical decapitation strike — various castles, mansions, etc. places where the real villains are located get vaporized (and not necessarily with nukes), but then the Pentagon decides to sit out the retaliation round
2) Some country (e.g. Poland or the UK) is made an example and erased from the map, but the madness stops there without the US launching everything towards Russia, which will then trigger both Russia and China to launch everything too.
This all depends on the people with actual control over the red button in the US being sufficiently rational.
Otherwise God help us, the end is nigh…
P.S. I know everyone is tired of that discussion, but if it gets to that point, Putin will bear much of the blame. Ukraine should have been quickly and completely taken over with overwhelming force, and had that been done we would not be in this situation now. We will all get killed because of his indecisiveness (and who knows what other factors that went into the decision making).

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jan 16 2023 22:08 utc | 85

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2023 21:44 utc | 76
delivering 1275 vehicles is about one third the vehicles in a us army mechanized brigade (heavy).
and that merely provides for combat services maintenance! that is check the oil and carry a small amount of fuel.
heavier maintenance is provided by a large unit such as division or corps.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 16 2023 22:20 utc | 87

Hermit: The Epstein Honey Trap explains some but not all cases. Others are bribed. Yet others opportunistically seek a place at the table with the Really Big Boys. And yet others prove receptive to the tender ministrations of hit men economic and otherwise.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 16 2023 19:28 utc | 39

Threats against the health and welfare of treasured family members and relatives is also very effective.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 16 2023 22:32 utc | 89

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 16 2023 20:29 utc | 60
My guess is when NATO will be forced to make a decision will be dependent on how Russia conducts the pace of the war over the next 2 to 6 months, i.e., either they continue the “ground and pound” or they go for a “big arrow” move.
In my view, Russia is carefully managing the war to avoid an erratic and irrational emotional response from NATO. This may be as important as Russia’s desire to avoid civilian and military casualties, and in fact contributes to their concern, since an outright NATO intervention would drastically increase both, as well as the actual economic expense to Russia.
If they continue the “ground and pound”, then the next point at which NATO will be forced to make a decision will be when the Donbass is cleared and the Ukrainians have retreated back across the Dnieper. The next point will be when the Russians cross the Dnieper and begin moving toward Kiev, or perhaps Odessa since NATO will then have to consider a link-up with Transnistria, which NATO might see as a threat to Moldova.
In the case of a “big arrow” move from Belarus down either to Kiev or west of the Dnieper, this, too, would signal the imminent collapse of Ukraine’s military. Even more so if it were accompanied by a push from the south north or to Odessa at the same time. I think these would trigger a NATO intervention or at least a severe NATO escalation, i.e., NATO would definitely send tanks, perhaps in the hundreds (of Abrams, at least if not Leopards), MGM-140 ATACMS long-range missiles, and perhaps some aircraft, up to an incursion from Poland.
So I’m beginning to think Russia will continue the “ground and pound” until Donbass is cleared, then shorten their lines, consolidate their forces into an armored fist, but then focus on finding and destroying Ukrainian units of significant size until finally they can head for Kiev in a short, explosive advance that gives the West no time to react, having destroyed the Ukrainian military. Odessa may or may not be taken – a tactic of destroying any Ukrainian units which exits Odessa to fight could be employed while bypassing the city itself until later. Nicolaev will likely be taken, however.
Now the question becomes what happens when the Ukrainian army is clearly destroyed, despite any “sheep-dipped” NATO soldiers or hardware sent, and Russia is moving toward Kiev? This is the time when it becomes “fish or cut bait” for NATO. I submit that decision will be made in Washington, and it will depend on how much additional US forces have been moved in-theater Do they have over 100,000 US troops on the ground, say, 250,000 or more? Do they have enough air assets deployed within strike range? Have they deployed more Patriot and other AD near their deployed forces? Do they have enough naval assets in the Balkans and outside the Black Sea (probably more than one carrier group in the Med, perhaps three?) Have NATO forces in Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Spain been put on alert and are actively ramping up for deployment?
And then the question becomes: Does Russia preempt all that NATO movement? The problem becomes: If Russia preempts, it will be blamed for starting the war, just like it is blamed for starting the Ukraine conflict because all the provocations will be ignored. The question then will be, how much of the world believes that? Second, does that matter if the war is inevitable? I agree with Putin’s “if you’re going to be attacked, strike first”. In martial arts, it’s a toss-up, usually one waits for the attack, then blocks or evades and then counters; in street fighting, though, it’s often recommended to hit first as soon as it’s apparent you’re going to be hit. Russia could hit first, then claim right of preemption against “imminent” attack. The question also becomes: will Russia limit its preemption again in an attempt to manage NATO’s response, or will it go for a decapitation strike immediately, at least on NATO command centers in Europe (including US command centers in Europe since the US will be in charge)? Or will it go for a decapitation strike which includes strikes on US and NATO naval assets? Losing a couple carrier groups might trigger a severe US response, whereas losing a couple smaller British ships might not.
I don’t see Russia striking the US mainland directly unless Russia directly fears some sort of nuclear first strike from the US, which in most cases will be submarine launched anyway and Russia may have no such warning unless it can detect it from pre-attack actions in the US government and Pentagon. Any direct attack on mainland USA might as well be nuclear because the response will be nuclear, so this is the ultimate Russian decision.
Or will severe economic conditions in the EU or US and/or major public reactions against same in either the EU or US interdict any of this from happening in the first place because the relative governments fall?
I don’t believe any of these questions are answerable short of the Kremlin or NATO explicitly saying what they will do in advance – which I don’t see happening. Scenarios can be constructed, but without a lot of detail – a la the details used in war games – I don’t think much can be gained. In fact, it might be interesting to see if anyone constructs some war games along these lines. Unless they are “professionals”, as Martyanov likes to say, however, they’re unlikely to be of much accuracy.
I say, grab the popcorn (or the keto equivalent for me – which is no popcorn) and wait and see.

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 16 2023 22:36 utc | 91

S | Jan 16 2023 22:08 utc | 84 “So why hasn’t the Russian military learned from the Syrian theater?”
Much depends on the goals of the first phase. Especially the first week. I doubt troops just stumbled onto the pentagon biolab documents by chance. One thing that Putin did say was that the labs in around Kiev had been shut down. Every line of advance in that first week was towards biolabs and nuclear sites.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2023 22:39 utc | 93

@john | Jan 16 2023 20:50 utc | 64
I too read reports that “something new” and mysterious was deployed along with using EW tactics not deployed until now. The article did not translate well but quoted a deputy commander oleksandr pavlyuk stating there were no sirens and whatever happened was not a result of an air threat. The article further went on to speculate that whatever hit the turbine of a thermal plant in kiev, if it was a missile could have been an iskandr or Iranian missile. Definitely reads as a thorough state of confusion existed after the attack. I’ve yet to hear any follow-up on the spherical UFO Russian AD downed over Rostov last week.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-rostov-ufo-object-rostov-drone-1771582?amp=1

Posted by: NJH | Jan 16 2023 22:47 utc | 95

S # 69
Thanks for that report and link. That was an interesting perspective on integrating the efforts of tankers, troopers and drones.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 16 2023 22:50 utc | 97

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 16 2023 21:02 utc | 67
Soros and Schwab are probably scared that Mr Khinzal may attend.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Jan 16 2023 22:53 utc | 99