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January 14, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-13
Comments
re Guest | Jan 15 2023 8:11 utc | 177
I have been to the Marshall islands and KNOW that the endemic corruption all around has everything to do with amerika who have done there exactly what they do in every other colony (see central america), that is destroy every local movement by the people to help themselves by blackmailing, bullying or bribing anyone who attempted to stand up to them lest ‘standing up’ threaten the colonial master’s power. They have encouraged both local and imported from asia gangsters to operate as their franchisees with the consequence that people have pretty much given up for the short term. ‘Independence’ revealed itself to be a farce as the compact of association with amerika has prevented any real self-sovereignty, while the so-called independence has meant that amerika could abjure responsibility for Marshallese.
Like all colonies it is a simple enough task to find people who seem to go along to get along, especially in Majuro and it is only by living among the people and earning their trust that they will open up to outsiders, for whitefellas in particular that can be quite a process.
The destruction wreaked upon the Pacific peoples by FukUS is not ignored or forgotten but Pacifica people understand that time is on their side, the ugly colonisers will get theirs as the northern empire/s collapse into the corruption, violence and greed they have visited upon so many others.
The disgusting actions of amerika in the Marshalls, england in South Australia and France at Aopuni caused vastly increased birth defects and cancer rates among people on surrounding atolls and islands, just because people rarely talk about this to outsiders doesn’t mean they have forgotten much less forgiven.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Jan 15 2023 11:34 utc | 201
About ”natural disaster” weapons:
It cannot be part of MAD, since it cannot be demonstrated beforehand, neither can it be modelled. If it would work it can only be used to destroy. If kept secret whodunnit, both sides would respond nuclear.
A weapon like a few poseidons near the coast would still produce a huge tidal wave.
Posted by: Rootman | Jan 15 2023 11:40 utc | 202
Wee reminder of the effect of Leopard II battle tanks with trained crews against Kurds chaps in Syria a few years back …
The £4million German tank dubbed ‘one of the best in the world’ is shown up in Syria: Leopard 2 bought by Turkey to fight British-backed Kurds has numerous faults exposed in lethal fashion
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5332247/The-4million-German-tank-embarrassed-Syria.html
Back in the day when it was still fashionable for the British to fight German equipment, rather than Russian.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 15 2023 11:45 utc | 203
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 2:47 utc | 143 “The only sorties I’ve seen is UAF jet flying somewhere further from inland, then they raise altitude temporarily”
I am not sure what this means “blind” or “guesstimating” compared to how the HARMs work. There are a few videos of HARMs being fired by Ukraine. Here is a source on one such: https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/32035-ukraine-shows-mig-29s-shooting-american-missiles There are others, for example, from when the SU-27s started using them. The Russians have shown wreckage from the HARM missiles a few times.
The US has shipped anti radiation missiles several times. From that I conclude Ukraine is still using them.
The Russians do, for some part of the time, have Mainstays up, but it appears nowhere near 100% of the time Instead the Russians have started this strategy of using very high flying MiG-31BM, from a fair distance from behind the lines. They can see the Ukrainian jets flying low, while they are up high. They are firing R-37M at very long range range at the Ukrainian jets and have shot down (hard kill) a few of them or not quite as good, have forced the Ukraine jets to abandon their mission (mission kill). Here is one story: https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-is-outfoxing-ukrainian-warplanes-with-its-foxhounds-mig-31/ There are others. Lately with a change in the way Ukraine runs their air missions, the odds have shifted more from hard kill to mission kill. Also note, the Mig-31 are also only up part of the time. The activity of the Mainstays and MIG-31s are likely passed along in real time to Ukraine.
There videos of HARM carrying Ukrainian aircraft parried with strike aircraft attacking the front lines.
As to how much they are contributing, with the exception of the HARMs on the Russian Air Defenses and the Russian Black Sea fleet, it does seem to be marginal.
The HARMs have had an effect, they forced the Russians to stop being laid back about their air defense and made it harder for them to operate. When the combination of the HARMs showing up and some longer range Ukrainian drones showing up behind the lines in Russia, Russia has been pulling S-300’s from places as far away as Syria, Saint Petersburg to replace lost units at the front and create a deeper air defense line.
As to the Black Sea fleet, they are operating from bases further away from Ukraine and also never approach Ukraine anywhere as near as they did early on. (Yes, the Neptune’s did some of this, but ships are targets for the HARMs as they have radars.)
There may be an uptick in effectiveness of the Ukrainian air force as the US has started sending GPS guided bombs with a small amount of stand off capability. The Russians will then have to create a strategy in reaction to that to drive the effectives down or be able to tolerate it.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 12:08 utc | 204
Yep, i have managed to be censured, a message mentioning the Bolshevik manner and method, complete disregard for the Slav Ukraine population, of Zelinsky and his entourage, having Jew Kabal crossing fingers as to the outcome globally. The shirt is closer to the body then denouncing excesses for the rootless cosmopolitan. A Pogrom to follow, as happened times over only a hundred years ago, which is no more then three generations at the same location. The whole Nazi and in charge is a fart.
Posted by: PetrOldSack | Jan 15 2023 12:12 utc | 205
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2023 10:15 utc | 190 “The Mirror story, is I think, a cynical attempt”
Or just wrong, in that the UK is not providing AH=64’s at this time.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 12:13 utc | 206
The HARMs have had an effect, they forced the Russians to stop being laid back about their air defense and made it harder for them to operate. When the combination of the HARMs showing up and some longer range Ukrainian drones showing up behind the lines in Russia, Russia has been pulling S-300’s from places as far away as Syria, Saint Petersburg to replace lost units at the front and create a deeper air defense line.
As to the Black Sea fleet, they are operating from bases further away from Ukraine and also never approach Ukraine anywhere as near as they did early on. (Yes, the Neptune’s did some of this, but ships are targets for the HARMs as they have radars.)
There may be an uptick in effectiveness of the Ukrainian air force as the US has started sending GPS guided bombs with a small amount of stand off capability. The Russians will then have to create a strategy in reaction to that to drive the effectives down or be able to tolerate it.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 12:08 utc | 203
So they have pulled S-300s from Syria and even St. Petersburg, you say? You sure got sources to back that up, yes? In any case, I would assume that these are replaced by S-400 and S-500.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 15 2023 12:16 utc | 207
Rootman @ 201
About ”natural disaster” weapons… A weapon like a few poseidons near the coast would still produce a huge tidal wave.
Can’t think of a better informed, out there, conspiracy oriented 🙃 crowd to ask then here, Dmitry Orlov whom I find wry and respect thinks the 2011 tsunami that hit Fukushima Japan was an underwater nuke.
WTF! Anyone here have a clue where Orlov is coming from???
Dimitry Orlov Decoding “Putin’s Nuclear Threat”
https://asteinko.blogspot.com/2022/10/dimitry-orlov-decoding-putins-nuclear.html
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 15 2023 12:26 utc | 208
I would assume that these are replaced by S-400 and S-500.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 15 2023 12:16 utc | 206
You use S300 for airplanes and cruise missiles.
You use S500 for ICBMs, hypersonic missiles and satellites.
Different purpose.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 15 2023 12:29 utc | 209
I would assume that these are replaced by S-400 and S-500.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 15 2023 12:16 utc | 206
You use S300 for airplanes and cruise missiles.
You use S500 for ICBMs, hypersonic missiles and satellites.
Different purpose.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 15 2023 12:29 utc | 208
And the S-400 are made for planes and cruise missiles. 😉 I was referring to replacing the air defense (not least of St. Petersburg) by more modern systems in general. Still, Russia will have lots of S-300s about anyway.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 15 2023 12:38 utc | 210
If you don’t like the number of sorties being 10 to 20 a day as given out by the US, UK, likely calculated from all the Western reconnaissance assets flying along the borders, what numbers have you seen?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 11:13 utc | 199
The US and UK have also insisted again and again that Russia has run out of missiles, artillery and ammunition. That the Russian people will revolt against Putin anytime now. That the sanctions will make Russia’s economy crash.
Do you also believe all of the above statements by the US and UK ?
Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Jan 15 2023 12:50 utc | 211
From December 19th, 2022…
Ukrainian pilot tells about the overwhelming superiority of the Russian air force
https://www.defenceview.in/ukrainian-pilot-tells-about-the-overwhelming-superiority-of-the-russian-air-force/
“After learning from their mistakes in the beginning of the war, the Russian Air Force is now making far more strategic decisions. With the help of A-50 aircraft and command aircraft, they often send out fighter patrols. Observational aircraft type Il-20 “,
“Juice,” a Ukrainian MiG-29 jet pilot, was quoted on December 16 by the military news outlet War Zone.
The Il-20 electronic intelligence and reconnaissance aircraft’s sophisticated sensor array allows for high-resolution topographical reconnaissance using radar, making it a major reason for concern for the Ukrainian government.
The Il-20’s ability to listen in on conversations and pinpoint distant adversary radar emitters is a result of its radio data collecting technology.
The Il-22PP has been updated with jammer technology to counter anti-aircraft radars. In addition to Su-34 bombers with jamming and electronic intelligence complexes, Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft, and Mi-8 helicopters with the Rychag-AV complex, this is part of Russia’s formidable electronic warfare capability.
“They operate almost 24/7, always putting the Ukrainian air defense forces in danger. The main threat to us is the Su-35S heavy fighter on patrol duty. It does not only carry missiles.
“We’ll use the anti-aircraft missile, the Kh-31 anti-radar missile, and the Khibiny jamming system to stop air defence complexes from working,” Juice said.
A report from the Royal United Services Research Institute (RUSI) in London said that the Russian Air Force (VKS) is putting two MiG fighters in each of the eight combat airspaces over Ukraine. -31BM or Su-35S is on patrol all the time.
Since the middle of the year, the R-37M long-range surface-to-air missile has been standard equipment for both MiG-31BM and Su-35S squadrons.
Based on information provided by the manufacturer, the R-37M missile is over 4 metres in length, approximately 0.4 metres in diameter, weighs 510 kilogrammes, and can travel up to 200 kilometres.
Other reports, however, claim that the R-37M has a range of up to 300 km and has successfully hit targets at a distance of 304 km during testing. The missile’s radar seeker is active, so it may find its target after launch without any intervention from the pilot.
“It is extremely dangerous. Fortunately, we understand Russia’s tactics and have developed plans to avoid confrontation with this type of missile.
Unfortunately, it severely hampers our efficiency in carrying out the task at hand. In the air, things are extremely complicated and dangerous. “If the rocket comes and you don’t realise it’s coming, your fate is already sealed,” Juice said.
From SouthFront:
Top Threats To Ukrainian Aircraft In Donbass
https://southfront.org/top-threats-to-ukrainian-aircraft/
The Ukrainian Air Force suffers not only from a shortage of aircraft, but also from a lack of professional military personnel. Ukrainian pilots often die in the incidents, as they are forced to fly at low altitude due to the work of Russian air defenses.
According to a report of the Russian Defense Ministry published on January 8, Russian fighters shot down five Ukrainian aircraft in one day. A Ukrainian Su-27 fighter was shot down in the Lozove area of the Kharkiv region. An Su-24 frontline bomber was shot down in the Izyum area. Two Su-25 attack aircraft were shot down in the areas of Nikolaypole and Novy Donbass; and a MiG-29 fighter jet crashed in the Veseloye area.
Losses are increasing due to incompetent actions by Ukrainian servicemen.
On January 7, a Ukrainian MiG-29 was mistakenly shot down by the Ukrainian Osa air defense system in the area of the city of Kurakhovo, which is located in the DPR and remains under control of the Ukrainian military. The footage of the incident showed that the downed plane was equipped with a US-made HARM anti-radar missile.
According to the livery of the aircraft, it belonged to the Ukrainian Falcons aerobatic team which was created in 1995.
The group was disbanded in 2002 due to lack of funding and the tragedy at the air show in Sknilov near Lviv, where 77 spectators died in the accident.
After the outbreak of hostilities in Eastern Ukraine, the lack of aviation forced the Ukrainian military to restore these aircraft.
On April 16, 2014, Air Forces of Ukraine staged an intimidation operation in the sky over Kramatorsk. Then a fully armed MiG-29 flew at a very low altitude over the crowds of people who blocked the railway tracks. The impromptu “air show” was staged by one of the Ukrainian Falcons.
So far, the team of Ukrainian Falcons has already lost several aircraft in hostilities.
The professional actions of Russian pilots also pose a great threat to Ukrainian aviation.
According to Russian sources, on December 30, a Russian Su-35S fighter jet broke a record in the modern history of combat aviation, shooting down two Ukrainian planes and two helicopters in one sortie, using only four missiles.
A Ukrainian Su-24 and MiG-29 aircraft and two Mi-8 helicopters were shot down in two hours.
According to Russian military officials, a total of 360 aircraft and 199 helicopters of Ukraine have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.
Can we stop hearing about how Russia is “failing the air war” with 100-200 sorties a day compared to 5 hours of Ukrainian sorties per day? Russia has at least 16 planes up, two per combat area, all day every day. Enough with the Ukrainian bullshit.
– RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 15 2023 13:01 utc | 212
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 15 2023 12:16 utc | 206
Syria
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/29/russia-ships-air-defence-missiles-out-of-syria-satellite-images
St Petersburg
https://yle.fi/a/3-12626182
Compared to the number of S-300 systems, they don’t have that many S-400 & S-500’s. But over the longer term, that would be the way things move.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 13:12 utc | 213
Blilly Smithy, you have too much free time and too little brain
Posted by: rk | Jan 15 2023 13:27 utc | 214
Syria
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/29/russia-ships-air-defence-missiles-out-of-syria-satellite-images
St Petersburg
https://yle.fi/a/3-12626182
Compared to the number of S-300 systems, they don’t have that many S-400 & S-500’s. But over the longer term, that would be the way things move.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 13:12 utc | 212
Thanks for the reply.
The Finnish source assumes that the weapons are being brought to Ukraine (anyone checked whether the place has been filled again?), same with the Israeli in the Al-Jazeera link. Whether that happens is everyone’s guess.
In 2019, Russia had 32 regiments i.e. 60 battalions i.e. 480 vehicles of S-400 in service. According even to German wikipedia ( https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_Triumf#:~:text=Das%20S-400%20Triumf%20(russisch,und%20Marschflugkörpern%20in%20allen%20Flughöhen. )
In January 2022, the Russian Air Force it had 160 S-300PS systems (4 rockets each) plus 150 S-300PM-1 and S-300PM-2 in service, the Space and Marine Forces a further 190. ( https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300P )
Who knows what has happened inbetween, I still assume that the Russian military industry produces various types of rockets / systems as we speak, and have been doing so all along.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jan 15 2023 13:32 utc | 215
Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Jan 15 2023 12:50 utc | 210 “The US and UK have also insisted again and again that Russia has run out of missiles”
I haven’t seen statements by either UK MOD or the Pentagon saying that Russia has “run out”, which is past tense.
The statements are more “running out” which is a future tense. Or “running low” which is subjective. And often the word “may” is inserted in the declaration. And then I’ve seen this: exhausted its “core stocks”. What are “core stocks” compared to, oh, say, “total stocks”? And this “Russia Could Run Out Of Reliable Rockets”. What do “Could” and “Reliable” add up to in the end?
“Has less than they started with” is likely correct.
Just the other day this was published by Kyiv: https://kyivindependent.com/national/how-many-missiles-does-russia-have-left
Which clearly shows Ukraine estimates the Russians still “got more”.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 13:34 utc | 216
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 15 2023 13:01 utc | 211 “Russia has at least 16 planes up, two per combat area, all day every day”
Interesting, got a source for that? I guess that means combat aircraft only? Back of the envelope: 4 hour sorties, means 6 per day.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 13:56 utc | 217
i just dont see how nato will roll over and accept russian victory. they would rather the world end.
Posted by: garfeld | Jan 14 2023 17:54 utc | 23
I understand what you are saying, but I think that that train of thinking is based on a belief in a single united NATO point of view. I don’t see NATO as having that single viewpoint. Undoubtedly there are those in NATO who would rather the world ended rather than accept a Russian victory. Some of them even think that a first strike on Russia would give them a “win”.
Others in NATO don’t want the world to end, but also don’t want Russia to achieve victory. Maybe, in the dead of night and in a closed door Faraday cage, some even think that Russia was provoked and that their NATO colleagues are to blame for the whole mess.
As an aside on the point of ending the world if victory cannot be achieved, I also remember that Putin said something on the lines that a world without Russia was not a world that should continue. (Of course I fully understand the difference between fighting and victory in an offense, and fighting and victory in a defense.)
It has seemed to me from the start that the Russian SMO was initiated and has been conducted at just the level to grind Ukraine down, but without giving the Europeans real reason to fear that Russia would sweep across their borders and invade their countries.
Russia has come into a lot of criticism for taking the operation so low key, but I see it as a deliberate strategy to avoid a single decisive blow that could provoke a NATO nuclear response.
Given that there are no diplomatic communications, the question is how this whole thing can work out without ending in nuclear war? Big arrow offensives may be a big mistake. Baby steps and meat grinder tactics may be better to give the time needed for the West to lose interest in Ukraine. The best we can hope for is for the SMO to end in a whimper, not a bang.
The rump Ukraine will be a depopulated hellhole. The Russian objective of securing their western border through comprehensive security treaties will remain an objective achievable only in the distant future, if at all.
The crying shame of the whole thing is that it did not need to be so.
Posted by: Marduk | Jan 15 2023 14:01 utc | 218
LightYearsFromHome@207….it comes from US sailors that were doxed with radiation when it happened.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 15 2023 14:01 utc | 219
T-90M “Breakthrough” tanks are sent to Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/29046
Where the Chechens are supposedly grouping.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 15 2023 14:01 utc | 220
@ Aristodemos 13
Best Nation. Assalamu ‘alaykum .
I think it’s fair to say that the psychopaths in power in the world have subverted the electoral system and self-designated themselves as leaders without authority. They do this in the hope that the electorates will submit to their fraud.
How can it be right for the electoral process in the UK to be managed by a Tory Peer?
Life us now as Sunak so accurately describes it ‘ unaffordable’ in Europe because of US sanctions and spiralling inflation created by the psychopaths in power. Sunak gave the rich 80% of their earnings without them doing any work.
Socialism for the rich, while the ordinary people are cursed for their lack of productivity. I know I wouldn’t drive a train without somebody else checking the doors.
In other words the nuclear blackmail option has already been used, which is to subvert the will of the people. Our Western leaders are tyrants and need to be deposed before they do more damage to us and the planet.
The war us not between Russia and the West. It is between us the people and the tyrant usurpers of power. They have already used the nuclear button to gain power. We are perfectly in our right and have a religious duty to use any means at our disposal to remove these fascist Left and Right wing Tories from.power.
Local elections for Imran Khan in Pakistan today. More algorithm self- designation of US power.
Posted by: Giyane | Jan 15 2023 14:22 utc | 221
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 12:08 utc | 203
The Pantsir point defense systems, which accompany S-300s is capable of shooting the HARMs down. There’s proof of this, and other proof that HARMs fail and have dropped onto random buildings, but little evidence that HARM would ever had hit what it was supposed to.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 15 2023 14:26 utc | 222
Both the UK and US intelligence services were saying early on that Russian precision missiles were not only in short supply, but largely ineffective, with only 40% functioning correctly. The whole intel effort has been an exercise in wish-fulfilment, with UA capabilities, using Western doctrine and kit, repeatedly shown to fall far short of expectations. Case in point, gushing articles how the ubermensch rapidly adapt to drone technology making their artillery assets more flexible, responsive and accurate, are quietly forgotten when it is revealed that 90% of UA quad-copter drones are rendered ineffective by Russian ECM.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2023 14:35 utc | 223
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2023 14:35 utc | 225
It’s also funny they talk about drones making artillery more effective, while Russian’s have been destroying self propelled and towed artillery 5-10 pieces per day on average. Nato is incapable of similar anti-artillery campaign. US sent AN/TPQ radars are hit.
Ukraine had to resort to shooting at fixed targets like towns and cities in Donbass, because their drones are neutralized and the row of guns gets fewer.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 15 2023 14:43 utc | 224
Bill Smith
A story does not need to have any basis of fact behind it for it to be a ‘cynical attempt’, The AH-64’s operational limitations were told to me by a senior member of the Air Staff, so I doubt they’d be too happy to send their shiny toys to an AD environment like Ukraine without a massive support network, which the UA simply does not possess. Sending a half squadrons worth of moth-balled Chally 2’s is a risk-free PR gimmick, sending top-flight AH-64’s is another matter, although it would be interesting to see the KA-52 perform one of it’s designated roles, counter-rotary.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2023 15:02 utc | 225
Can’t think of a better informed, out there, conspiracy oriented 🙃 crowd to ask then here, Dmitry Orlov whom I find wry and respect thinks the 2011 tsunami that hit Fukushima Japan was an underwater nuke.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 15 2023 12:26 utc | 210
I recall reading that elsewhere a few times. Allegedly it was done by Israel to dissuade Japan who was assisting Iran in nuclear weapons enrichment.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 15 2023 15:04 utc | 226
@Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 2:29 utc | 137
Russia has destroyed Ukraine’s air force several times over*. Europe and the US have now run out of old Soviet equipment to supply the Ukraine for the price US suppliers will be paid for new replacements.
The only way Ukraine can operate aircraft without their destruction is to keep them on or near the ground and away from Russian drones.
I don’t think all Russians know about the military capabilities of Russia’s missiles any more than any other nations populations know about their missile’s capabilities, but those that are interested can easily perform the necessary research in public and quasi public unclassified sources.
Like most countries, Russia does not publish much information about their classified satellites, but some information can be gleaned from orbital mechanics and public databases. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, widely recognized as having a good database, Russia currently has 76 military satellites. I think that at least 26 of them have the ability to interchange information via the Strelets command, control, and intelligence (C2I) system.
Running Total as at Jan 11 2023 20:47 utc (helpfully tracked by Outraged
371(+1) aircraft,
200 helicopters,
2,868(+2) unmanned aerial vehicles,
400 surface-to-air missile systems, (Each AD Radar destroyed, no(Soviet pre ’91) spares/replacements, effectively: Unclaimed Kills)
7,473(+8) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
976(+1) multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
3,809(+7) field artillery guns and mortars, and
8,006(+14) pieces of special military vehicle equipment.
Entering the conflict in 2022
ROTARY Wing Aircraft
Ukraine’s four aviation brigades are similar in structure, with each on paper operating around 16 Mil Mi-8 transports and 10 Mil Mi-24 gunships. In practice, the distribution of airframes is uneven. And there are a few Mil Mi-2 training helicopters and Mil Mi-26 heavy transports sprinkled across the brigades. Axe David (2022-11-19).The Ukrainian Army’s Helicopters Sat Out The Last Campaign. They Sure Aren’t Sitting Out This One. Forbes Magazine
“According to US defense officials, UKAF still has 56 operational fighter jets as of 11 March 2022. In April 2022, an unspecified country has offered parts to help Ukraine restore 20 aircraft to operational usage, US defence official claimed.”
It entered 2022 with 97 combat aircraft, 3 special mission and 14 combat aircraft (Wikipedia)
Posted by: Hermit | Jan 15 2023 15:18 utc | 227
Greetings. I really cherish the information and debate that happens here. Question for those more informed than I: Is Elon Musk & Co. and SpaceX obligated by some partnership with the DoD to employ the Starlink satellite network as a vital communications asset for the UAF? Would those assets be legitimately considered military targets? Thanks in advance.
Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jan 15 2023 15:54 utc | 228
@aristodemos | Jan 15 2023 10:29 utc | 194
Maybe this should be on the NOT Ukraine thread?
I really recommend my short monograph, On Truth and Models to your attention, as it relates directly to this.
The scientific consensus disagrees. Indeed, I can’t think of a single academic (and I know a very large number across all the continents (yes, even Antarctica) who would agree with you.
As for Sheldrake for once Wikipedia is on the mark. “Alfred Rupert Sheldrake is an English author and parapsychology researcher who proposed the concept of morphic resonance, a conjecture which lacks mainstream acceptance and has been criticized as pseudoscience.”
Humanity is 140 to 6.5 million years old, depending on what you categorize as a human. Until after the demographic chokepoint at 76kYBP when our population collapsed from c 3.5 million down to 1,000 give or take an order of magnitude, our accomplishments were limited. All our (using our loosely, as neanderthals appears to have been responsible for a broad range of human developments) developments accelerated dramatically after that. What is the relevance of your assertion?
There is NO intersubjectively verified evidence of extrasensory capability, and no basis in physics to assume this to be either possible or necessary. And then, there is e.g. The James Randi Educational Foundation’s One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge for which there were many contestants and no winners, not for lack of trying.
Brains under the influence of neuroactive substances can give weird results. So what?
Truth is either trivial or delusional. Science is the building of models that make predictions. See my paper above. I’m no ordinary hermit, I’m a Tarot Hermit* and I deal with a world of impossible things before breakfast most days. But I can also tell the difference between the imaginary and the more than imaginary, and about that of which I know not, to avoid making a total fool of myself, I remain silent.
*”Behold! these be grave mysteries; for there are also of my friends who be hermits. Now think not to find them in the forest or on the mountain; but in beds of purple, caressed by magnificent beasts of women with large limbs, and fire and light in their eyes, and masses of flaming hair about them; there shall ye find them. Ye shall see them at rule, at victorious armies, at all the joy; and there shall be in them a joy a million times greater than this”. Book of the Law, II 24 Aleister Crowley 😉
Posted by: Hermit | Jan 15 2023 15:59 utc | 229
Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jan 15 2023 15:54 utc | 231
At first, no. It was an Elon initiative, but then he got somewhat colder feet and demanded that Ukraine pay for service. The DoD stepped in, and we don’t know exactly what happened, but you can guess that Elon is getting paid, and is bound to some non-public terms of service.
As for whether they are military targets? Maybe, maybe not… it could just be that all they do is provide internet for the UAF on the same terms as any other receivers and are getting paid for it… civilian space infrastructure would be a big escalation, but not the same as targeting, say, US military satellites.
All that said, Starlink is made of thousands of microsatellites, in many different orbits, and is probably mostly immune to missile attack. Some sort of ground or space-based laser picking them off? perhaps, but we haven’t seen anything like that in use, anywhere, yet. Burning a satellite with a ground based laser is/would be a mighty task.
Posted by: dask | Jan 15 2023 16:04 utc | 230
@Paul Greenwood | Jan 15 2023 9:32 utc | 185
As always, thank-you. I was and am aware of and agree with everything stated here. Too many others do not. Your efforts to change that are always appreciated by me.
Posted by: Hermit | Jan 15 2023 16:07 utc | 231
@dask 233
Thanks for the kind response. Regards.
Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jan 15 2023 16:21 utc | 232
no most people worldwide believe man went to the Moon
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 14 2023 23:00 utc | 94
###
And they believe Nixon called the astronauts on a landline from the Oval Office in real-time.
If it was on TV, it must be true …
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 15 2023 18:11 utc | 233
@ malenkov 104
My bad. Thank you for the well deserved spanking.
I am now reminded that in 2008, US president Jimmy Carter said Israel had at least 150 nuclear weapons.
+ + + + + +
“UK sends Apache helicopters armed with deadly Hellfire missiles to Ukraine” – Sourced from Mirror UK rag.
@ LightYearsFromHome | Jan 14 2023 23:37 utc | 106
well today, Jan. 15, 2023
the other rag, SkyNews UK has it as being denied:
The UK Defense Ministry has denied any plans to send Apache attack helicopters to Ukraine as reported by British media, Sky News correspondent Deborah Haynes said on Sunday.
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 15 2023 18:31 utc | 234
Well, Likklemore, you know the old saying: Never believe something until it’s been officially denied. Which is probably the case here. I’m sure there ate plans to send those Apaches. But I’m sure there are snags too…like combat readiness?…
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 15 2023 19:57 utc | 235
LoveDonbass | Jan 15 2023 18:11 utc | 236
In case you genuinely don’t know it is entirely possible to make a call on a telephone and have it hooked up to a radio receiver/transmitter. I have done this myself when stationed in Thailand during the Vietnam conflict. There were volunteer radio operators who would make the connections between Asia and the US and then there would be local phone calls made on each end. It was not perfect but it worked. This long before satellites and such.
I really have to shake my head at people who insist the moon LANDINGS (as in more than one) were all faked. WTF?
Posted by: dan of steele | Jan 15 2023 20:03 utc | 236
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 12:08 utc | 203
The HARMs have had an effect, they forced the Russians to stop being laid back about their air defense and made it harder for them to operate. When the combination of the HARMs showing up and some longer range Ukrainian drones showing up behind the lines in Russia, Russia has been pulling S-300’s from places as far away as Syria, Saint Petersburg to replace lost units at the front and create a deeper air defense line.
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Your usual ignorant nonsense talking.
The HARM, one of the most expensive weapon systems privided by the West, has been among the least effective ones in the battlefields. Russia’s CIWSs have demonstrated an interception rate approaching 100% against HARMs! And Russian jets have been downing western remodeled, HARM-carrying Mig-29s in large numbers!
Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Jan 15 2023 20:14 utc | 237
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 15 2023 12:08 utc | 206
Why is it not possible to deploy decoy targets for the HARMs.
If those interfere with the real radar system, why not split transmitter and receiver of the radar system and locate the transmitter a distance away from missiles, receiver and guidance systems.
Surely the transmitter is a component which it is cheap to replace.
Posted by: bottle | Jan 16 2023 11:52 utc | 238
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 23:38 utc | 107
You may not be posting that “((()))” stuff to discredit this site, but that’s the effect it has. As for whether your response calling me a troll because I pointed it out comes from the real aristodemos, that’s something all the readers of this site will decide for themselves.
Posted by: Gene Poole | Jan 16 2023 21:43 utc | 239