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January 14, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-13

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on January 14, 2023 at 16:03 UTC | Permalink

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Nato sending spy planes to Romania to spy on Russian military activities along the border.


https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/01/13/696267/Russia-NATO-spy-planes-AWACS

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 14 2023 16:07 utc | 1

its strange to me that many people are, at this point, ignoring the obvious endpoint of this war: nuclear holocaust. nato/ukraine will not back down and neither will russia, so there will never be any victory for either side, just an inevitable nuclear exchange that kills us all. just a matter of when, not if. 2023/2024 may just be the end of humanity.

Posted by: garfeld | Jan 14 2023 16:10 utc | 2

This is an interesting article, that all but says that Europe will be the losers in this conflict, the USA is far away, and pretty much safe from all but nukes, and its using Europe as its battlefield against Russia, eventually sending enough heavy weapons to Ukraine will see the war spill out of Ukraine and into Europe.

https://ria.ru/20230114/evropa-1844737893.html

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 14 2023 16:22 utc | 3

Scott Ritter and the Canadian Prepper see the escalation in Ukraine leading to nuclear war.

The West will not back down and the Russians are not going to trust the West any more. The backdoor channels with good diplomatic teams from both sides don't exist.

So, nuclear war will come. The question is when?

Perhaps the Bible can give us some clues when this will occur. I think it can with verse Daniel 7:5. This verse shows that the bear will arise and devour much flesh when it has 3 ribs in its mouth between its teeth. I think those 3 ribs could be Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. If so, when Russia takes and secures all of the Donbas, nuclear war will break out soon after.

Whether this is correct or not, it is a good time to get right with God in true repentance submitting to Jesus Christ as your Lord.

Posted by: young | Jan 14 2023 16:23 utc | 4

Bahkmut looks like it's getting super reinforced, 25 thousands
Ukrainian defenders, maybe enough for a counter offensive. It sounds like the northern supply route is definitely cut, but the western ones remain open and clear.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 14 2023 16:23 utc | 5

To the point - "nuclear war is inevitable." No, we just wake up with no electicity, no electronics, no transportation, no gas, no TV, no money, and no future in the cities. Maybe London, New York, and CA get nuked, but really no need to kill anyone else. We will just kill ourselves just like it has been on TV for years.

Posted by: JimG | Jan 14 2023 16:24 utc | 6

This wouldn't surprise me at all, and I foresee a reversal of blame being put on Russia if they are used by the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi forces.


" Ukraine may be preparing to use chemical weapons against Russian troops, the Russian Embassy in the United Kingdom said on Twitter, commenting on a video made by Ukrainian servicemen earlier.

"A video published by Ukrainian military apparently shows them preparing to use chemical weapons, possibly phosgene, prohibited by UN CWC [Chemical Weapons Convention], against Russian military," the embassy said, posting the video.

"Letters "OB" stand for toxic munition. This also explains why the gas cylinders need to be stored in the fridge," Russian diplomats added.

According to the video, Ukrainian servicemen were planning to install those cylinders on strike drones."

https://tass.com/politics/1562195

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 14 2023 16:28 utc | 7

It's interesting to read old predictions of what "future" war would be like. Guys in the early 19th century predicting that rifles would make artillery obsolete as the crews would just be shot down from 1000 or 2000 yards away. Guys in the early 20th century predicting battlefields dominated by giant zeppelins blasting everything below them with cannons and energy beams. Wonder weapons are not usually as effective in the field as they are in theory. Nuclear weapons are probably the same way. There has been no nuclear war before. When actual nuclear war happens, I think that most of the weapons would not reach their targets. Failures to launch, targeting errors, failure to detonate, air defenses (perhaps even AA with nuclear warheads), and then the dust clouds and electromagnetic interference.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 14 2023 16:53 utc | 8

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 14 2023 16:28 utc | 7

UA will use chemical weapons, and the west will accuse Russians of gassing themselves.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 14 2023 16:56 utc | 9

Tanks to Ukraine. Britain steps up to the plate. This is supposed to put more pressure on Germany. At this rate Ukraine could end up with a couple dozen tanks. Not enough for Zelensky. He wants at least a thousand to get Crimea back.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/14/rishi-sunak-offers-tanks-ukraine-russian-troops-challenger-2-volodymyr-zelenskiy

Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 17:10 utc | 10

Garfield @2

A dangerous form of fatalism has grasped you in its jaws. The more individuals fall into this spiritual trap, the more becomes the power of a potential nuclear armageddon on our beloved planet. In other words, thought contains power and it is shared broadly amongst the universal unconscious. My hope is that there exist a sufficiency of those who may be considered as human white blood cells, to relieve this despondent hopelessness.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 17:26 utc | 11

" The price of Russian Urals oil in the port of Primorsk on January 6 was less than $37.80 per barrel, Bloomberg reports citing Argus Media.

The material says that this is more than half the cost of Brent, which now costs $84 a barrel, and below the ceiling of $60 introduced by the European Union.

On January 5, the average price of Urals oil in January-December 2022 was $76.09 per barrel . "

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 14 2023 17:28 utc | 12

Another nuke it all and that negative vibe hitching up with religious nonsense happens to be spiritually bereft and not at all helpful in averting that sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of all life on earth. Quit it! You are falling into the grasp of an evil demiurge.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 17:29 utc | 13

neo---@#5

Yet another negative Nelly. To me three of a kind is pretty rare in five card stud. In other words, to me it looks like three peas in a pod, being coordinated by nefarious sources.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 17:31 utc | 14

is anyone here familiar with the idea that nukes aren't real? ie: both nuclear power & nuclear weapons are NOT REAL. the documentaries on this subject are very compelling. & it's not as if tribe don't lie about all things all the time

Posted by: brugge101 | Jan 14 2023 17:31 utc | 15

" Like all central banks, the Bank of Russia functions as a “body of state power” even though it acts independently from the Russian state. "

" but also owing to the fact that drafts of federal laws or the statutory acts of federal bodies of executive power concerning the performance by the Bank of Russia of its functions must be submitted to the Bank of Russia for consideration and approval. "

" Nevertheless, the Bank of Russia has both proprietary and financial independence. It exercises its powers to own, use and manage its property, including its international reserves, in compliance with the purposes and according to the procedure established by the Federal Law ‘On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)’. Bank of Russia property may not be seized or encumbered without its consent, unless federal law stipulates otherwise. The financial independence of the Bank of Russia implies that it covers its expenses from its own income. The Bank of Russia may defend its interests in court, including in international courts, the courts of foreign states and courts of arbitration. "

https://www.cbr.ru/eng/about_br/bankstatus/

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 14 2023 17:33 utc | 16

@ garfeld

If you’re saying that this war is irresponsible, then I agree with you.

What I don’t see people mention more: didn’t Biden actually tell Putin the U.S. would not directly oppose Russia in Ukraine? If I remember correctly, USA pivoted from a promise not to fight, to providing weapons + logistics + battlefield intelligence + mercenaries + special forces & intelligence carrying out secret missions on the ground.

And I think they’ve made an egregious mistake, because the rationality of saying USA would not get involved consists in this mutual understanding that war between major nuclear powers is unthinkably risky. Playing a technical semantic game about whether you’re at war or not has no value, because we’re de facto at war. Everyone knows we’re at war, from the US media and population to the Russians and Russian people.

My view is that there’s something profoundly reckless and contrary to a common sense understanding of the norms in place that permit us to avoid WWIII, and it’s super weird that no one but me has said this

Interpreting the massive support a

Posted by: GoFast | Jan 14 2023 17:35 utc | 17

republic of Scotland @#7

The controlling interests, sequestered primarily in City of London, are getting desperate. Their multi-millennial schemes for total world domination according to the Talmudist Agenda, are getting ambushed by the self-preservation mode amongst the leadership of the Russian Federation. They are evidently intent upon drawing Russia into a "first-strike" option. Best solution would be for the Russians to dispatch a totally kinetic (non nuclear) hypersonic precisely aimed at a certain private bank in City of London.

Like Henry David Thoreau pointed out nearly two centuries ago...slightly paraphrased: "Don't waste your energies hacking away at the branches of a problem, grub it out by the roots." City of London contains the Eye of the Octopus.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 17:38 utc | 18

@dh #10
Good analysis, no doubt.
Still, if a goal is to "put pressure on Germany", to bully and cajole countries and governments into doing things they don't want to do out of fear of - eventually - starting World War III: The one wonders who is making decisions here. And why.

Posted by: Marvin | Jan 14 2023 17:41 utc | 19

Opinion by Aristodemos

There is no such thing as coincidence. This is the thinking of Carl Jung, arguably the greatest of psychological philosophers of our era. That said, it strikes me as beyond coincidence that nuclear terrorists (at a pay-war basis) have been "urged" by some force, literal or interdimensionally, to amp the meme of nuclear warfare being inevitable.

Such talk goes into what Jung describes as the Universal Unconscious, a sphere where the thoughts and feelings of the whole of humanity are interacting and formulating into a ruling passion. This shit needs to be cut off at the pass. The more people who get caught up in fears of a nuclear holocaust; the more likely it is to occur.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 17:44 utc | 20

@19 I think the idea behind Britain sending a few tanks is to show some kind of leadership (Rule Britania!) and shame Olaf into joining in. I don't think Sunak particularly wants to get involved in Ukraine at all but he is under pressure too. Who actually decides? Good question.

Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 17:50 utc | 21

“ Interpreting the massive support a”

Sorry about that. USSER error

Posted by: GoFast | Jan 14 2023 17:50 utc | 22

yeah i truly hope that the threat of nukes is overblown, but the west is run by complete psychopaths. early on my opinion was that there would always be strict boundaries that would not be crossed...but this seems naive in retrospect. maybe fearing nuclear war will make it more likely, if this is the case then people like scott ritter are doing humanity a disservice by ringing the alarm bells. i just dont see how nato will roll over and accept russian victory. they would rather the world end.

Posted by: garfeld | Jan 14 2023 17:54 utc | 23

Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 14 2023 17:58 utc | 24

The more people who get caught up in fears of a nuclear holocaust; the more likely it is to occur.
@ aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 17:44 utc | 20

You recite an empty slogan, with no more substance than the exact opposite assertion: that realistic dread of nuclear holocaust is necessary in order to avert it. This is why a healthy human consciousness has dread, so that grown-ups can think ahead and avoid things to worry about.

Don't sweat the small stuff, but nuclear war is not "the small stuff".

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 14 2023 17:59 utc | 25

An interesting analysis based on the recent re-shuffle of command in Russia, assuming the Putin needs three Generals to drive three fronts: Air (special) Force commander Surovikin has softened up Ukraine with the air raids since October, and established how and where to attack to reduce the mobility of Ukraine forces. Surovikin will remain in Charge of the Eastern front.

A new front would be opened in the North. Likely somewhat west of the heavy fortifications of Kharkiv, but not so close to the Polish border that Poland might feels pressured or invited to jump in. The goal of the initiative is disrupt supply of western weapons.

Another front would be opened in the South. Either via amphibian landing in the Odessa area, or by attacking and capturing Zaporitscha. Beyond disrupting west-east supply lines, the two new attacks would have the goal of forcing Ukraine to spread their army across large areas.

Not so much strategy for Ukraine, beyond suggesting to build up two large attack forces in western Ukraine, pooling western weapons, rather than sending them to the front immediately.

Not sure if the analysis is solid, but it is interesting to see someone actually thinking through military strategic options and their implications.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aak34okmy2A

Posted by: Marvin | Jan 14 2023 18:01 utc | 26


Nato sending spy planes to Romania to spy on Russian military activities along the border.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 14 2023 16:07 utc | 1

NATO warning and reconnaissance systems were completely disabled in today's Russian strikes
by Valentin Vasilescu

NATO has decided to deploy 3 E-3 AWACS aircraft to Otopeni Air Base in Romania. This decision shows that something has started to go wrong in the Ukrainian AA defense early warning system based on information provided by NATO.
...
Deputy Commander of Ground Forces of Ukraine Lt. Gen. Alexander Pavlyuk noted that "the causes of the explosions will be announced separately." ...
It was only 6 hours after the attack that they learned that Russian missiles had entered Ukraine via Belarus.
...
Russia has created certain zones of invisibility for aerial and satellite detection systems. The Russians have several highly effective jamming systems, including the R 330ZH Zhitel and the Krasuha-4.
...
Http...>en.reseauinternational.net/les-systemes-dalerte-et-de-reconnaissance-de-lotan-ont-ete-completement-neutralises-lors-des-frappes-russes-daujourdhui/

Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 14 2023 18:01 utc | 27

Britain steps up to the plate.
Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 17:10 utc | 10

Greece alone has over 300, isn't it? And many other natoids have lots. Poland ordered hundreds more only last year or so. 1000 tanks can be in Ukr very quickly, very easily.
But no number will be enough. If you ignore that some are trash and others burned nicely in Syria, if you ignore anti-tank weapons, they still have no air support and maintenance. I doubt they can even bring enough fuel for 1000. They'll park a few in Lvov and take selfies

But to hunt civilians and shoot at buildings all over Donbass or Zap. it'll work, the 5 Russian soldiers won't find them all. Schlitz and the others will do the same thing for the same reason and for fun. If horse face sincerely believes that 12 tanks or 1200 will do anything, he must be using Zely's stash.

Posted by: rk | Jan 14 2023 18:08 utc | 28

@28 The Zelensky strategy is to get more direct NATO involvement. He's probably hoping that a few tanks will turn into a flood. The reluctance on the part of EU countries to send them is because they have a pretty good idea how they will end up. Come on Olaf. We're waiting.

Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 18:15 utc | 29

brugge101 | Jan 14 2023 17:31 utc | 15

On another site, many years ago, I used to argue with a chap who thought that nuclear power and weapons didn't exist. The conspiracy for his idea to be true would need to be so huge as to make it vanishingly unlikely.
As we are seeing now, it is relatively easy to get all the western establishment to parrot an agreed line. But China, India and Russia would need to play along with the scam. Given the almost open hostility between the US and China and Russia at the moment, that seems unlikely.

Posted by: D J G | Jan 14 2023 18:15 utc | 30

a main battle tank (mbt) without a heavy equipment transporter is useless, if you tried to drive them 600 miles 1 in 10 would get through because of equipment failures.

each mbt needs 3 or 4 bradley fighting vehicles to keep infantry off them.

every mbt (and their ifvs) needs three or four heavy fuel vehicles with rapid dispensing hosing.

while leopards and centurion tanks may use the same line of munitions the bradleys and abrams' use the us versions not compatible, huge ammunition supply chains required.

the materiel problems are huge, but are less than the "finding qualified crew" problems!!

Posted by: paddy | Jan 14 2023 18:24 utc | 31

@ D J G
"I used to argue with a chap who thought that nuclear power and weapons didn't exist"
That assumption was shared by the only journalist I ever took seriously; it was heartbreaking when she found out about her mistake: :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zabCBnUHLA

Posted by: Confused | Jan 14 2023 18:29 utc | 32

garfield@23

For all his brilliance as a military analyst, Ritter primarily operates from a materialist dimension. His awareness of inter dimensional reality is barely past the toddler state. Almost all Marine Corps officers, even in retirement, maintain a military mindset, even including the likes of former majors like Ritter, James Fetzer and Minnesota's governor Walz.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 18:32 utc | 33

@ Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 14 2023 18:01 utc | 27

nato/otan owns a wing of e-3 awacs, somewhat similar to usaf e-3 awacs, which are more numerous.

nato/otan posting 3 in rumania is an escalation!

could be a source of battlefield intelligence for russia..... to see how otan awacs operates!

Posted by: paddy | Jan 14 2023 18:32 utc | 34

Aleph @ 25

Of course all humans have existential dread. It goes with the territory. Nuclear armageddon fears simply hype the level of fear to the verge of insanity. Any perspective which exacerbates that existential insanity will simply amp up the insanity throughout the population. Capisce?

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 18:35 utc | 35

Posted by: brugge101 | Jan 14 2023 17:31 utc | 15

I don't believe in the nuclear horror-story anymore. They might've used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki- but it didn't make it inhabitable. Neither does it seem to be a problem in Chernobyl or Fukushima.
As for those Pacific atolls - who knows how thing are over there.
The mere fact they had no problem testing it in the atmosphere must be a clue.

Posted by: Anne B | Jan 14 2023 18:37 utc | 36

Marvin @26

Could be you are pretty close on the dual fronts concept of one from West of Kharkov and the other aimed at Zap City. If conditions favor that polar development of perhaps up to a 100 k.m. pair of salients; there would be the possibility of expanding the probes to the point where they conjoin. All of that latter speculation would depend upon whether or not the Ukies could successfully counterattack with significant mobile forces and....of course, a sustainable logistical tail.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 18:40 utc | 37

Come with Wagner to Soledar- with english voice-over.

https://youtu.be/O-dcqCBYhHw

"Ironically- the UAF were holed up in the kindergarten while Wagner were evacuating civilians"

Posted by: Anne B | Jan 14 2023 18:43 utc | 38

In the comments to the excellent thread where b lays out the successive Ukrainian defensive lines, I suggested that another force from somewhere like Belgorod could disrupt Ukrainian forces building those lines. Today on Sputnik's map, I see increased action around Belgorod and Kharkov. Kharkov is very important for transporting supplies to the UA forces where the major actions are taking place. Distupting traffic there is important.

Posted by: barstool | Jan 14 2023 18:44 utc | 39

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jan 14 2023 17:28 utc | 12 "On January 5, the average price of Urals oil in January-December 2022 was $76.09 per barrel . ""

Interesting numbers on oil pricing:

https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data latest shown is 1/12/23 is 55.88, last time over $60 was 12/5/22
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ latest shown is 1/11/23 is 53.04, shows nothing over 60 over the last 30 days
https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/crude-oil-prices#abfa64c0 latest shown is 1/13/23, 48.74, shows nothing over 60 over the last 30 days
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil latest shown is 1/13/23 is 55.80, shows nothing over 60 since 12/5/22

Not sure where that average of $76.09 comes from.


Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 14 2023 18:47 utc | 40

Posted by: garfeld | Jan 14 2023 16:10 utc | 2 nato/ukraine will not back down and neither will russia

Then Russia must bring "April 1945" to Ukraine ASAP. I don't understand why they haven't done so already. It's also inexcusable that Russia only controls the easternmost 1/8th of Ukraine. This is a country that's right on their God-damned border, for crying out loud. This would be like the USA being unable to invade and subdue Mexico or Canada.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Jan 14 2023 18:50 utc | 41

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 14 2023 16:23 utc | 5

It's nice the UAF is so eager to gather in Bakmut. It makes them an easier target. The city is pretty much ruined anyway - even if there's still some civilians to hide behind.
It might save the west of Donesk from a lot of damage.

Posted by: Anne B | Jan 14 2023 18:51 utc | 42

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 17:44 utc | 20

My sons complaint about his little sister and her "lack of imagination" : "I try to scare her, and I am the only one getting spooked."

Posted by: Anne B | Jan 14 2023 18:57 utc | 43

Capisce?
@ aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 18:35 utc | 35

Hardly. Whatever it is you're describing slips seamlessly from "existential dread" (presumably okay) to "that existential insanity".

You say "nuclear armageddon fears" produce the latter. Sometimes fears are justified. You apparently discourage any discussion of nuclear danger, for some strange reason having to do with Jung. I frankly do not capisce people who think mankind can progress if we avoid discussion of really bad stuff. I call it silencing. I think it serves the war machine.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 14 2023 18:59 utc | 44

Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 14 2023 18:01 utc | 27

E-3's, along with a lot of other Western reconnaissance assets have been openly flying along the borders Ukraine and Russia since before the SMO started. They can be tracked on various public flight following internet sites with twitter users posting photos from time to time. Moving 3 E-3 to Romania doesn't mean much.

As to: "Russia has created certain zones of invisibility for aerial and satellite detection systems." the actual article says "It is possible that Russia has created certain zones of invisibility for aerial and satellite detection systems."

It is also possible Russian launched a number of short ranged ballistic missiles from the northeast of Ukraine. Short ranged meaning short flying time. And from the area where all those Western reconnaissance assets can't get to. We'll see.

As to the Krasuha-4, didn't Ukraine capture one of those and send it to the US about 6 months ago? If so, then the West has a pretty good idea of what it can and can't do. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-captured-part-of-one-of-russias-most-capable-electronic-warfare-systems

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 14 2023 19:03 utc | 45

Nato sending spy planes to Romania to spy on Russian military activities along the border.

AWACS are required for data link to Patriot if you want to use a Patriot against cruise missiles. It looks like NATO is going to set up a missile defense umbrella in far Western Ukraine. With an AWACS the Patriot is effective against cruise missiles, less so against small drones like the Geranium. NASAMS and IRIS-T are good weapons. GEPHARDT is good for close range protection.

Points to NATO entering Western Ukraine after the fall of the Donbas.

I would expect Russia to take out the Patriot with a Dagger cruise missile (no defense against that), and possibly the AWACS to be taken down by an SU-57 firing a long range air-to-air missile. This is if NATO openly moves into Western Ukraine. And then WW3 starts.

The only real conventional strategic deterrence NATO has is the F-35. However they need jet fuel tanks, and their bases need electricity.

Posted by: JackG | Jan 14 2023 19:04 utc | 46

paddy | Jan 14 2023 18:24 utc | 31

The British tanks use 125mm rifled ammo, the Leopards 20mm smooth. Totally different, big logistics issue. Take out their ammo supply trucks and the perfectly good tanks are scrap.

Much like the unique 105mm ammo used by the French AMX-10.

As you say, finding crews for these advanced tanks is the big problem as most experienced UA crews must be dead by now.

Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 14 2023 19:07 utc | 47


Do not miss this.

Michael Hudson is interviewed by Radhika Desai. Posted January 13, 2023
LINK
Geopolitical Economy Hour - The Rise of the Multipolar World..decline of US Hegemony.

R D: We plan to discuss many subjects: inflation, oil prices, de-dollarization, the outcome of the war over Ukraine which is going to determine so many things, the threats the U.S. is making against China about Taiwan, China’s increasingly prominent role in the world, how China’s Belt and Road Initiative is going to reshape it, how Western alliances and the Western-dominated world that was built over the past couple of centuries is so rapidly fracturing.

M H: Well we have been talking about this for many decades. Already in 1978 I wrote a book, Global Fracture, about how the world is dividing into two parts. But that time, other countries were trying to break free so they could follow their own developments.

And today it’s the United States that is isolating other countries – not only China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, but now the Global South – so the United States has ended up isolating itself from the rest.

What we’re going to talk about is how this is not only a geographic split, but a split of economic systems and economic philosophies. We’re going to talk about what the characteristics and the policies [are] that are shaping this new global fracture.[.]

I think the most obvious driving force that’s splitting the world is the U.S. attempt to create a unipolar world under its control, [particularly] its national security diplomats and financial interests. They insist on monopolizing the international finance system so that if countries try to follow a policy that supports their own development, the United States can simply pull the plug and block their financial transactions.

The U.S. tries to control the oil trade. Oil has always been, for the last century, a centerpiece of American diplomacy, because if the American oil companies (along with British Petroleum and Dutch Shell) can control the oil, then they can turn off the power, and the lights, and the transportation, of any country that is not following the U.S. plans for a world order.

And also food. The United States, from the time that the World Bank was formed, has blocked other countries from developing their own food production, and has steered them into producing export crops (non-food crops, tropical crops) remaining dependent on the United States for its grain, so the United States can starve them out if they try to go their own way.

So the United States approach to leading the world order is to lead by being the aggressor — to threaten, to hurt other countries — not by providing mutual gains [or] by helping them [develop], but by saying, “If you don’t do what we want, we will overthrow you. We’ll have a coup d’état. We’ll do to you what we did with Pinochet in Chile. We’ll do to you what w did with Boris Yeltsin in Russia. We’ll interfere.”

This has been easiest of all in probably the most corrupt region of the world, Western Europe, where the United States Treasury officials have told me that all they need to do is give little white envelopes filled with dollar bills and they’ve been able to control European politics.[.]
(emphasis added)

Corruption aside. Leadership in the collective west do not do policy consequences. Why should they? those little white envelopes.......

The G7 oil cap which is unenforceable and according to Steve Mnuchin, former secretary US Treasury, is a real dumb idea.

Huh. price cap is USD$60/bl. Market disrupted. KSA needs a price at USD$80/bl.
And, not taken into account by the G7; the RF state budgets 2021-2024 forecasts include the worst scenario and is based on an oil price at USD$45/bl. See why Poland was pushing an oil price cap at $30./bl?

And so it is not working.

To save face Ms. Yellen now says; 'well is the RF oil products are transformed in another country, that's OK you can purchase (the product).'
Enter the middlemen in India and China laughing all the way to their banks. We unbox, repack and re-export to end user.

Oops. Inflation.
Oops. Saudis and rest of the GCC are asking are we next? What a precedent?
India asks; are you going to dictate our export price of Basmati rice?

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 14 2023 19:11 utc | 48

Before I first went to Ukraine (2016), naturally apprehensive, I studied the Maiden coup and was alarmed by the black and very extensive ruins of Kiev's heart, the city center.

When we first went to Independence Square, the deep destruction had been all but righted. Of course it was a make-over but the opposite of a cure.

Recently it's popular and correct to say Ukraine used the years following Maiden to 1) build up a strike force against Russia and 2) Minsk 1 & 2 were lying charades enabling the Ukraine regime the time mount and field a large attack force.

Fair enough and true. And half the story as well.

Russia also needed that same time for the same reason. The "go along to get along" Russian government attitude of 1991 seems to have persisted even until 2014 and also needed time to amend and correct itself and also use the time to prepare to engage.

Russia's was a bit late, but is it now fully recovered from hopeful illusions? Their due military preparations noted and their slow progress in this war noted, I only hope so.

There's an old saying "Spit in one hand and wish in the other and see which fills up first." We are seeing the answer now.

All this has been a long time coming for two equally unprepared adversaries.


Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jan 14 2023 19:13 utc | 49

It sounds like there is another massive missile attack on 404 infrastructure. I am not sure how this is happening because the MSM assured us that Russia had no more missiles left.

Posted by: josh | Jan 14 2023 19:18 utc | 50

As for those Pacific atolls - who knows how thing are over there.
@ Anne B | Jan 14 2023 18:37 utc | 36

If you're not pulling my leg with a joke in very bad taste, this exemplifies a rampant form of genocidal racism I call indigenous cleansing.

Who knows? Perhaps the Marshall Islanders? Except they don't count, of course!

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 14 2023 19:18 utc | 51

Aleph@44

You do appear to be a bit short in the realm of the metaphysical. Understandable, as Western educational systems, particularly at the top and most particularly in the U$$A, are under total control of rationalistic materialism and all of it's concomitants. Perhaps you have been deluged with that ideological perspective.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 19:20 utc | 52

Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 14 2023 19:07 utc | 47

120mm smooth of course :(

Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 14 2023 19:26 utc | 53

Just emphasising a point made by a poster on the other thread.

Nebenzya is the Russian rep in the UN. He made a speech and this bit seems to have died.

He is describing Ukraine in a very thought provoking way, as now transformed into a very, very large PMC. Whilst, as in a PMC, its the management that make out like bandits.

He has a valid point. Think about it for a moment.

Victor vicktop55
@vicktop555
·
3h
Nebenzya: "Ukraine has become, in fact, a NATO PMC - they give it weapons, money, intelligence, they tell where to shoot. Only the Ukrainian people suffer from this, who fight for the sake of other people's tasks"

Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 14 2023 19:35 utc | 54

The more people who get caught up in fears of a nuclear holocaust; the more likely it is to occur.
@ aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 19:20 utc | 52

This statement is offered without any supporting evidence, as if your word is authoritative or sanctified and should be taken on faith.

You're right that I don't have what it takes, metaphysically, to accept such a statement on faith.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 14 2023 19:38 utc | 55

@dh | Jan 14 2023 17:50 utc | 21

@19 I think the idea behind Britain sending a few tanks is to show some kind of leadership (Rule Britania!) and shame Olaf into joining in. I don't think Sunak particularly wants to get involved in Ukraine at all but he is under pressure too. Who actually decides? Good question.
Interesting how Brexit Britain is the leading warring force in Europe fighting for the supposed right of Ukraine to enter the EU that Britain just left?

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 14 2023 19:38 utc | 56

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 14 2023 19:03 utc | 45

It's really doubtful USA has anything that can shoot down even an Iskander. They have had a lot of trouble shooting down dumb Houthi rockets. In that sense it's irrelevant if early warning sees it or not.

I do think US sending Patriots to Ukraine, or western Ukraine like they probably intend to, will get hunted down, one way or another.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 14 2023 19:39 utc | 57

@ Aristodemos: Marines and professionals should never mix up their insights with metaphysics etc.
Spirituality has its place, can be an antidote to materialism. But it cannot make an engine run or even cook your food. Perhaps you don't mean it that way, but if you mix it up enough, it can even make you crazy.

I am not that worried about an imminent nuclear war, but it is foolish to deny the consequences if it would happen.

Posted by: Rootman | Jan 14 2023 19:41 utc | 58

'Aleph@44 You do appear to be a bit short in the realm of the metaphysical'.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 19:20 utc | 52

To your credit Aleph, to your credit.
"When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer, ..." Stevie

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jan 14 2023 19:48 utc | 59

Posted by: brugge101 | Jan 14 2023 17:31 utc | 15

Posted by: D J G | Jan 14 2023 18:15 utc | 30

Posted by: Anne B | Jan 14 2023 18:37 utc | 36

Nuclear weapons, Real vs Not?

I remain unconvinced either way, but lean toward skepticism. Miles Mathis does one of the better takedowns...

http://mileswmathis.com/trinity.pdf

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 14 2023 19:49 utc | 60

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 14 2023 19:18 utc | 51

I fail to see the racism- but would very much like to hear what the Marshall islanders have to say. Got anyone ready?

Posted by: Anne B | Jan 14 2023 20:07 utc | 61

Ouch. We just cried uncle. !!! Help us.

Never mind who did the sabotage.

Nord Stream must be repaired – German state official

Fixing the sabotaged pipelines and resuming imports from Russia would be cheaper than buying LNG, Saxony’s governor has said

The governor of the German state of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, has called for the repair of the sabotaged Nord Stream pipelines, arguing that operators are running out of time before the vital gas link becomes unusable.

In an interview with Germany’s Funke Media Group on Saturday, Kretschmer said that while “the issue of Russian gas is not on the table” as long as the conflict in Ukraine is ongoing, Germany must preserve the option to “buy something other than expensive liquefied natural gas after the war.”

Therefore the Russian-German consortium responsible for Nord Stream “must ensure that the pipeline can be repaired.”

“We’re running out of time. If the damage is not repaired, Nord Stream will become unusable for a long time.” [.]

Western officials privately acknowledge that Russia was unlikely to blame for the sabotage, according to recent reports.

[Source RT]

OK. Who will pony up the funds for repairs? Also add punitive damages; a term in U.S. law and convention.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 14 2023 20:08 utc | 62

Vengeance Strikes: New 2023 edition summary for January 14, 2023 as of 10:15 pm EST

By evening, the consequences of today's rocket attack has begun to clear up. Hits on critical infrastructure facilities were confirmed in several regions at once, DTEK announced damage to two thermal power plants, without specifying which ones, and the Minister of Energy of Ukraine said that objects were hit in six regions at once, including the part of the Zaporozhye region controlled by Kyiv. Emergency shutdowns have been introduced in many cities, and there are also problems with water supply.

⚠️Currently, critical infrastructure damage has been confirmed in:

– Kyiv (TPP)
— Kharkov
— Dnepropetrovsk (TPP)
— Odessa
— Vinnitsa
— Ivano-Frankivsk
— Lviv

⚡️Emergency shutdowns in:

— Kharkov
— Dnepropetrovsk
— Kyiv
— Zaporozhye
— Vinnitsa
— Zhytomyr
— Ivano-Frankivsk
— Lviv

💧Problems with water supply in:

— Kharkov
— Lviv

Posted by: missile strikes | Jan 14 2023 20:13 utc | 63

Pentagon Seeks to Ink Contract on Technical Assistance for Patriot Systems in Ukraine [Sputnik]tps://sputniknews.com/20230114/pentagon-seeks-to-ink-contract-on-technical-assistance-for-patriot-systems-in-ukraine-1106328251.html

The US Department of Defense intends to receive a commercial offer only from Raytheon Technologies, which manufactures the weapon system, but other companies are encouraged to contact the defense firm for subcontracting opportunities.

😆 ...

Posted by: Laurence | Jan 14 2023 20:27 utc | 64

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 14 2023 19:39 utc | 57 "It's really doubtful USA has anything that can shoot down even an Iskander."

Likely agree with that. Don't see where I indicated that though.

The early warning NATO can provide would be for the cruise missiles and drones. They can provide up to date track data to at least alert Ukraine's forces in the anticipated track area. Early on it was reported on the cruise missiles and drones followed pretty much straight lines with only one turn. Now the highest number of turns I've seen reported for a single missiles is 44 turns. Much harder to warn folks ahead.

Posted by: JackG | Jan 14 2023 19:04 utc | 46

Assets other than the E-3 can pass track data to a Patriot battery so it can be fired without its radar being on.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 14 2023 20:31 utc | 65

@56 "Interesting how Brexit Britain is the leading warring force in Europe fighting for the supposed right of Ukraine to enter the EU that Britain just left?"

Britain has always had an ambivalent attitude towards the continental mainland. Brexit didn't change that. I'm not sure the general population in the UK is Russophobic or if it's mainly an Old Etonian thing.

Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 20:34 utc | 66

I really don't know what's the worst on this thread: prophets telling us about inevitable imminent nuclear annihilation or misinformed people saying a nuclear explosion isn't so bad or those maintainig nuclear bombs don't really exist. The bombs on Japan were pretty small fish compared to what we now have lurking in the nuclear arsenals but tell that to those poor people burned alive or miserably dying a few weeks afterwards. Of course there is a risk that this will end in nuclear war, especially if we all keep obeying like sheep. The very idea that we have people in top military and political positions who play with the nuclear option ought to trigger a revolution. But reality seems to escape most of us - why, I ask? Oh, we look with fascination at apocalyptic films (Sputnik had a nice selection lately: screen-burn-the-most-memorable-nuclear-war-scenes-on-film-and-tv, but we all quitely accept our fate...either in denial or incomprehensible acceptance...

Posted by: Anthony | Jan 14 2023 20:35 utc | 67

I'm a lot less scared of nuclear war now Russia has successfully navigated general mobilization. They were always the most likely to escalate to nukes and now they have other tools.

We naturally focus on the extreme possibilities (Nuclear Armageddon), but I think the most likely outcomes of 2023 are actually
- a grinding Russian advance that threatens or takes Slovyansk
- total destruction of the Ukrainian economy
- devastation of the European economy
- global recession

Of course these less extreme outcomes will hurt worse than anyone is reasonably willing to talk about.

Posted by: capilte | Jan 14 2023 20:37 utc | 68

JohninMK @47

As you say, finding crews for these advanced tanks is the big problem as most experienced UA crews must be dead by now.


The inexperienced will not be volunteering unless extremely stupid. The mercs and NATO should not be volunteering unless supremely stupid. IQ above 85 will know sitting in one of those targets is a suicide mission. So we should give the new tanks, if they ever arrive, to 16 year old conscripts who feel immortal and don't know better. Or to 60 year old conscripts who are depressed and ready to check out.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 14 2023 21:02 utc | 69

@ Anthony Post 67

Agree.

Some are in denial and some just don't want to know.

Ask Pollard who was imprisoned for revealing Israel had nukes.

and

Those who think nuclear weapons do not exist or is not so bad should speak with the Marshall Islands people who can't return; Marshall Islands Atolls still unliveable.
U.S. testing nuclear bombs 1946 - 1962 and nuclear waste buried in the Pacific.
The Bikini Atoll is now a UNESCO Heritage site:

https://www.bikiniatoll.info/history-of-bikini-atoll/

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 14 2023 21:04 utc | 70

Note the Polo-Ukraine state already at full work.

"A new wave of mass mobilization for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

To compensate for losses at the front in the Cherkasy, Kirovograd and Dnepropetrovsk regions, another mass conscription began, or rather, even the capture of men. Checkpoints have been set up at the entrances to large cities, representatives of military registration and enlistment offices are escorted by police in commuter trains, and patrols are running in cities and door-to-door rounds are being carried out. In addition, a ban was announced on the departure of men under the age of 60 outside the regions.

In addition to capturing on the territory of Ukraine, Kyiv also conducts recruiting events in Poland and other "friendly" countries. Thus, the Embassy of Ukraine in Poland has already begun an active targeted mailing of notifications on military registration at the place of registration in Ukraine. It has to be signed when received. Also please note that it is at the place of registration in Ukraine, and not at the embassy.

Despite the brave statements of the Ukrainian authorities about the successful destruction of the Russian military, repelling the attacks of the Armed Forces of Russian Federation and other military successes at the front, the situation for Kyiv is not very optimistic. Although Ukrainians have unlimited weapons and money, since the entire Western military-industrial complex works for Ukraine, this cannot be said about human resources - there is indeed an acute shortage, and it only gets worse. The perceived shortage of people is difficult to fill because citizens are fleeing the country. Everyone who wanted to fight in Ukraine as a volunteer has long gone to the front and died, and those who remain in the rear are in no hurry to die, so finding new cannon fodder is becoming more and more difficult every time. And the West is not in a hurry to risk the lives of its citizens. At least officially and on the battlefield." (TG / Soroca-Beloboca)


New wave of mass mobilization in Ukraine. They are now hunting their citizens in foreign lands through embassy work, and restricting travel inside Ukraine with obstacles.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 14 2023 21:10 utc | 71

@71 Must be quite a few hiding out in the UK by now. Zelensky should ask Sunak to send them back.

Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 21:22 utc | 72

Heads-up @ aristodemos:
The "international Jewish conspiracy" troll is usurping your identity again. (@18)

Posted by: Gene Poole | Jan 14 2023 21:32 utc | 73

US government has re-started war against the Sinaloa Cartel. Is it possible Russia ends up supporting the Sinaloa Cartel in a proxy war?

Posted by: conditioning | Jan 14 2023 21:38 utc | 74

Anthony no. 67

"incomprehensible acceptance"

Yours is one of the more rational comments on the subject. And a realistic view of the masses; impotent in regard to tptb.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 14 2023 21:43 utc | 75

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 14 2023 21:02 utc | 69

Ukraine has been training units the far west along the Polish border since the start. There are some indications that the training lasts 2-3 months before forces are moved to the lines in low intensity areas. Some of the units along the Belarus border are also under going training. One twitter thread indicated that a battalion sized unit after training was then attached to a brigade on the Belarus border which then allowed for a similar sized unit to be removed from that brigade and sent to Kherson (after the Russians withdrew) and attached to a brigade there.

So far, Ukraine as managed to train up enough users (non maintainers) on just about all the gear they have gotten. But have they really gotten that much complex stuff? A couple of hundred pieces of Western artillery, including HIMARs? A handful of anti aircraft batteries? The HARMs are likely used by a very small group of Ukrainians. The stuff they have gotten in large numbers isn't that complex to use. I'm thinking Javelins, NLAWs, Stingers.

And if you believe that only 15% of it gets to people who will fight with it, then numbers to train are even less of a problem.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 14 2023 21:50 utc | 76

US government has re-started war against the Sinaloa Cartel. Is it possible Russia ends up supporting the Sinaloa Cartel in a proxy war?

Posted by: conditioning | Jan 14 2023 21:38 utc | 74

This is projection. Just because Western governments are used to recruit organised crime in the ROW for their purposes, this doesn't mean others do it as well.

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 14 2023 21:53 utc | 77

Does anyone think as I am starting to do that the US may have something very big to hide in the Bakhmut-Soledar region salt caves (125 miles of tunnels), hence the amount of effort on the behalf Zelensky who is willingly forcing so many horrific casualties. While the US says these towns are unimportant as Russia takes one after another, why are they making so much effort to defend them? Does it have to do with Biden and sons activities in Ukraine? Covid-19 as Russia claimed?

Although this is pure speculation I'm beginning to think that the US has yet another reason to be backing this war, and that is to hide a lot of evidence that could condemn it on the world stage.

Posted by: George | Jan 14 2023 21:53 utc | 78

How long before the Western media claim the ballistic missiles, in the first wave, were of Iranian manufacture?

Posted by: Milites | Jan 14 2023 21:54 utc | 79

Whether this is correct or not, it is a good time to get right with God in true repentance submitting to Jesus Christ as your Lord.
Posted by: young | Jan 14 2023 16:23 utc | 4

Mr. Young (?) if I want to hear a sermon I would go to church. Religion is NOT part of the subject here.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 14 2023 22:00 utc | 80

I expect a war will start soon in Japan. Japan will be destroyed militarily and economically. It will be joint attack on US bases along with Air and navy assets. The US will be pushed out to the third island chain. The US will deploy a nuclear bomb to slow the attack. This will be the final nail in the end of the US hegemony. It will start with an announced embargo on Taiwan.

Posted by: Peace | Jan 14 2023 22:02 utc | 81

The progression of the hits in Ukraine energy infrastructure. Initial strikes where quickly repaired from stock spares or due to an abundance of electricity generation capacity, rerouted so it was only lights out for a few days in most regions hit.

Russia took it to a point of permanent rolling blackouts and paused there. The slow step by step progression and electricity for just a few hours a day gave time for Ukrainians to consider the inevitable, boot out the comedian and commence negotiations with Russia.

The recent strikes on energy infrastructure was another turn of the thumbscrews by Russia. These resulting permanent blackouts from the most recent strikes remain to be seen but it will be a cold few months ahead for Nazi Ukraine. If Ukraine wakes up and boots out the well reimbursed comedian, Russia no doubt has the parts in stock to have Ukraine energy system up and running very quickly. Just the nuke power plants including ZNPP will I think have enough generation capacity for de-industrialized, de-populated rump Ukraine.

Reports in the last week or two of frostbite in the tuberculosis trenches of Bakhmut and Soledar. Public opinion does seem to be slowly turning in Ukraine. Frontline conscripts/mobilized posting videos to social media say they will come back to hang Zelensky Families wanting to know what has happened to kin. All they have to do is look at Sladkov's videos from Soledar. Those kin a piled literally in heaps in places.

Looking at it from the outside, at some point the Ukrainians will mach on Kiev instead of into the meat grinder, but watching the stupidity of these clowns that have allowed themselves to be brainwashed, most will die - re the video oldhippy posted. I see a lot of western military types say the Ukrainians have courage but dying like that for an anglo inspired nazi ideology is to me just stupidity.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 22:09 utc | 82

@JimG 6

6 EMP devices detonated over the continental uSA and not killing anyone directly would, according to research by the US Congressional Research Service, result in the deaths of 95% of Americans with a year (Wilson Clay (2008-07-21). High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) andHigh Power Microwave (HPM) Devices: Threat Assessments, Congressional Research Service, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division. Order Code RL32544. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32544.pdf.

A single small tactical nuclear device, or even a large conventional bomb, detonated in the marine trench alongside La Palma, a small volcanic island 700 miles east of New York would result in a 1000 m tall ocean wide tsunami, resulting in a mega tsunami, a tidal wave over 100' high that would eliminate the East Coast of the United States. See e.g. Mega tsunami Scenario - La Palma Landslide.

Similarly, a single small tactical nuclear device, or even a large conventional bomb, detonated in the marine trench alongside Catalina Island would jolt free the currently impacted tectonic plates, allowing the near instantaneous release of the 35' of built up differential movement. This would result in a tidal wave that would eliminate the entire West Coast of the USA. See e.g. Doughton Sandi (2012-03+10). On NW coast, potential for tsunami waves up to 100 feet now seems possible. The Seattle Times.

A detonation in the Mississippi near St Louis could result in the release of the Lisbon fault, which would not only kill millions (last time it happened it flattened forests in Pennsylvania) but would divide the US in two and probably leave the center radioactive due to all the nuclear plants built in an active seismic zone, with enormous pools of high-level waste stacked in open pools on-site.

Any other use of nuclear weapons would be worse. Any large scale use of nuclear weapons on cities will have an effect similar to the cometary impact that triggered the largest extinction event in Earth's history at the end of the Permian Era some 152 MYBP. There are no grounds to imagine that humans could survive that.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 14 2023 22:15 utc | 83

Yahoo/Daily Beast celebrate the escalation of weapons deliveries (that I have yet to see any tangible proof will be realized or be sufficient to accomplish anything).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/epic-arsenal-western-guns-coming-010759481.html

It goes without saying that all corporate US media outlets must assert that "Putin thought the war would be over in days..." without providing the necessary context that the war WOULD HAVE been over in 3 days if the US and UK hadn't interceded and scuttled early negotiations for peace. How shameful it is how debased our "fourth estate" has become.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 14 2023 22:18 utc | 84

Hermit no. 83

"There are no grounds to imagine that humans could survive that"

Well thank fuck for that,

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 14 2023 22:27 utc | 85

The Russian General Surovikin (and associates) organized the withdrawal from Kherson (Ukraine).

The main reason Surovikin ordered Russian forces to withdraw was that the Russians had just comprehensively stopped the Ukrainian offensive. All was relatively quiet. Any counter-offensive would have punched a hole right through the Ukrainian lines, their forces would have been encircled, and destroyed. It was imperative that the Russians were pulled back before the precarious state of the Ukrainian forces became known.

At this time the Ukrainians were way overextended and were not able to fight this two front war. One front had to be closed down. As the front east of the Dnieper river was by far the stronger, Surovikin had the Russians abandon the front west of the Dnieper. To make sure that the Russians could not easily reopen this front, Surovikin had the southern bridges over the Dnieper blown up. That's right, Surovikin blew up the bridges useful to the Russians. Surovikin never touched the bridges that were of vital importance to the Ukrainians. In fact, the northern bridges over the Dnieper are all still standing.

Surovikin claims that the 30,000 Russian soldiers west of Kherson could not be supplied with the necessary ammunition, etc. This of course is total garbage, considering that they had just done exactly this in stopping the Ukrainian Kherson offensive. Surovikin's claim is simply a lie. Remember, back in February the whole 30,000 man army, with all its equipment, had crossed to Kherson within a couple of days. Similarly, when they withdrew. Thus in the weeks where the civilians were pulled out of Kherson, the 30,000 man army could have been heavily reinforced, and supplied with enough equipment to smash the Ukrainian forces, but, of course, this was not wanted.

Since there were no good excuses for pulling out of Kherson, Surovikin had to grasp at straws, suggesting that artillery/missile strikes could cause the sudden breaking of the Kakhovka dam, which would wash away the bridges, and trap the 30,000 man army west of the Dnieper. Of course, even thousands of hits on the dam would not result in catastrophic failure. A gradual uncontrolled leakage of water may have occurred, resulting in a short-term flooding of some areas but nothing that would wash away bridges. (And even if the bridges were lost it would be easy enough to resupply the men by landing craft, ferries, and other boats. Resupply by aircraft would likely be too dangerous.)

Another reason that the Russians were ordered out of Kherson is that the Ukrainians had no way to stop a determined advance toward Odessa. Without Kherson as a staging area the Russians would no longer have this option. If the Russians had tried to advance on Odessa they would have met minimal resistance. The reason the Ukrainians have to continually tell you how strong their forces are, is because they are not strong.

It is clear that as long as Surovikin (and associates) are in charge, there will be no Russian attempt to cut Ukrainian supply lines as the Ukrainian army would collapse in short time. The talk of a winter offensive to cut the supply lines is just talk. It will not happen as it would quickly lead to a Ukrainian defeat.

Surovikin will continue to claim that attacking into the teeth of the Ukrainian defenses is the only way to save Russian lives. As the Ukrainians sit in their concrete bunkers and mow down any exposed Russian forces, Surovikin will tell us that things have to be done this way, to save Russian lives. Any talk of finding one of the thousands of weak spots in the Ukrainian line, breaking through the line there, and attacking the concrete bunkers from the back, will be taboo. Since frontal attacks require wasting huge quantities of ammunition such attacks will probably continue till the Russians exhaust their supplies. The best tactic for destroying fortified positions will never be allowed.

And then Putin will give Surovikin a medal.

So, where have we seen the withdrawal of an army just after they had won the battle, so that they ended up losing. Yes, when Hitler ordered Manstein to withdraw just after he had broken through the southern front, and essentially won the world war two battle of Kursk. About that battle, Field Marshal Erich von Manstein, the commander of Army Group South said;

"Speaking for my own Army Group, I pointed out (to Hitler) that the battle was now at its culminating point, and that to break it off at this moment would be tantamount to throwing a victory away."

Posted by: known | Jan 14 2023 22:37 utc | 86

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 14 2023 22:15 utc | 83

One of the solutions to Fermi’s Paradox (why havent we seen aliens if there are so many stars) is that civilizations evolve to the point where they discover nuclear fission and then shortly thereafter destroy themselves.

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 14 2023 22:38 utc | 87

Perhaps amusing:

The Russians in Switzerland know: Putin is finished.
Russian writer Mikhail Shishkin is convinced that Russia will lose the war. After that, he says, the country will sink into chaos. If Putin survives, Shishkin says in the interview, he will seek refuge in a certain African country where everything is prepared for him.

(From German newspaper Die Welt)

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 14 2023 22:43 utc | 88

Posted by: known | Jan 14 2023 22:37 utc | 86

That is a some conspiracy theory you are weaving there. And a shitty one.

The Russian situation then was a consequence of the initial SMO miscalculation not seeing that the West will go all in, doomsday style, on them. They were overextended.

Things may be slowly changing now, we see the attrition strategy in real life, but it is still a question whether the newly mobilized will prove effective in battle. Many have families at home.

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 14 2023 22:50 utc | 89

On another site, many years ago, I used to argue with a chap who thought that nuclear power and weapons didn't exist. The conspiracy for his idea to be true would need to be so huge as to make it vanishingly unlikely.

Posted by: D J G | Jan 14 2023 18:15 utc | 30

###

Almost like a ubiquitous push to vaccinate the planet, or to get people to go along with a theory about fossil fuels leading to unprecedented global warming. Or, my favorite, the belief that man went to the moon, which last I saw, most people outside of the US don't actually believe, and yet it is taken as gospel truth most everywhere because it is a fundamental mythology of the Empire of Lies.

Never underestimate how many people "go with the flow" even if the flow is absolute nonsense.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 14 2023 22:55 utc | 90

@Anne B | Jan 14 2023 18:37 utc | 36

Physics does not require your "belief" and would not be affected by your disbelief.

When you detonated a nuclear weapons it gets hot. Really hot. Hot air rises. This creates an enormous draft of rising hot air, which results in the classical mushroom cloud. The column of rising hot air ascends into the stratosphere. When detonated over a city, huge amounts of material are vaporized and burned. The soot from this process is carried into the stratosphere by the rising air column, where the soot blocks sunlight from reaching the surface of the earth. As it never rains in the stratosphere, the soot remains there for decades. Due to global warming, the equator which once separated the hemispheres no longer does so. This means that the powerful winds in the stratosphere will distribute the soot to a car greater extent than we originally modelled. This will result in a rapid drop of average temperatures by between 8C and 12C. Precipitation will collapse and the biosphere will dessicate. the combination of dry, cold and lack of light will prevent plant growth on land and at sea, including reefs which are home to over 80% of marine life, for decades. Not only will this reduce the amount of food (and fuel) available, causing elimination of most terrestrial species, it will also result in a precipitous reduction on atmospheric oxygen, over 85% of which is produced by plankton, resulting in the release of anaerobic archaebacteria and eukaryotes currently trapped in oxygen free depths, that will kill any remaining aerobic marine life as they switch from sulfur-cycle to photosynthesis, converting the waters of the world to Canfield oceans.

There is no reason to suppose that any humans, who currently each need about 8.5 tonnes of primary biomass (plant growth) per year (the poor for food and energy, the wealthy for food and possessions) and who currently use over 75% of the total of about 100 Gtonnes produced by terrestrial plants per year, and who require at least 11% atmospheric oxygen for respiration to occur, would survive such an event.

The moral is that if humans are to survive at all, they have to avoid thermonuclear war. Maybe consider writing to politicians and whatever media you can reach. That might do more good than silently screaming in denial. Probably not, but we have to try.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 14 2023 22:58 utc | 91

Aleph@55

As a materialist, rationalist, you will have developed a blockage between belief and faith. Granted, the JudieChristy MagickMindfukers (or mindfucked) often use the word "faith" when they are coming from a position of belief. But there does exist a huge dichotomy between belief and faith.

Belief happens to be an impositional meme, beginning with parents, other elders, government educational establishments, peers, the boobtoob and social media. Beliefs in other words are NOT innate to the individual.

On the other side, it must be explained that faith, IS innate and is directly connected with not only Creator, but towards all of creation. As a Cartesian/Darwilnist (it would appear) you will dismiss this perspective out of hand by means of a long developed form of cognitive dissonance.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 23:00 utc | 92

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 14 2023 22:55 utc | 90

no most people worldwide believe man went to the Moon, the Chinese are going back there. and physics is not Covid, you want to overturn 200 years of science on the matter of global warming, publish your noble prize paper, meanwhile most people believe physics, not you, and not one of the prongs supporting US hegemony, the fossil fuel industry.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 14 2023 23:00 utc | 93

Rootman@ 58

AT no point have I denied the consequences of a nuclear war. The possibility (not to suggest probability) of a nuclear armageddon is always there as long as nations possess nuclear weaponry.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 23:03 utc | 94

Things may be slowly changing now, we see the attrition strategy in real life, but it is still a question whether the newly mobilized will prove effective in battle. Many have families at home.
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 14 2023 22:50 utc | 89

Along with mobilization, new laws and punishments were introduced for those that leave their positions without orders. What started as an organized withdrawal in Karkov region became a bit of a debacle as some units of contract soldiers left their positions. The caused the deaths of much of the rear guard.

The mobilized will now be fighting on what is Russian territory. The referendums, the new military laws, the mobilization - all go hand in hand. From what I have read, on the first day of mobilization, 10,000 volunteers turned up without waiting to see if they received an order for mobilization. The will be anomalies but the mobilized as a whole will fighjt.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 23:05 utc | 95

my typos are becoming bad again...

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 23:08 utc | 96

Is Turkey not a NATO member Or is it an "ally"? There is a difference given the categories attached to this org...such as "an ally" and "enhanced strategic opportunity partnerships"

Had to ask.
..see the headline below then read on:

US senator aims to block $20 billion deal with NATO member

Bob Menendez has spoken out against selling F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye, saying Ankara must act like a “trusted ally”

RT:


Plans by President Joe Biden’s administration to approve a $20 billion sale of US-made F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye have hit a potential roadblock, as a key member of the Senate has vowed to block the deal because he considers Ankara to be an untrustworthy NATO ally.

“I strongly oppose the Biden administration’s proposed sale of new F-16 aircraft to Türkiye,” Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, said on Friday in a statement. He accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of disregarding human rights, undermining international law and engaging in “alarming and destabilizing behavior in Turkey and against neighboring NATO allies.”[.]

Menendez is very forgetful. I do not suggest the Senator should be on the wrong foot with Erdogan.
There is the Incirlik airbase in Turkey which is "considered one of the major strategically located US military bases".. Turkey's army is the largest in NATO.

Do we need an explainer why Bob finds Turkey unruly?

1. Turkey likes to fence straddle.
2. Turkey has agreed to develop with Russia a gas hub for supplying gas to EU.
3. Turkey bought Russia's S400
4. Turkey has issues with Greece.
5. In the UKR conflict, Turkey blows hot and cold depending on the day. Like today, Turkey said any peace plan to end the UKR conflict must include Russia's concern.
6. Turkey has blocked Sweden's NATO membership.

I'll leave it there ....but lots more can be listed.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 14 2023 23:10 utc | 97

waynorinorway @59

Full well aware that the ruling elite in the land of my ancestors happen to be a pack of rationalist-materialists, with some fair number of graduates of the University of Oslo even having been Maoists and suchlike in their youth and now occupy much of the national infrastructure. It is quite a sad denouement for a land which once was among the most noble in the Western world.

Rationalistic materialism, with its Cartesian and neoDarwilnist roots is one of the two most powerful memes shared by a heavy majority of those who have matriculated through the intestines of so-called "higher education". At least in the U$$A, the thoroughly edumacated tend towards hyperspecialization and are generally quite incapable of seeing the forest for the trees.

The other side of the messed-up anti-spiritual duopoly in Norge is the Staats Kirche (state church) in which the spiritual element is massively overwhelmed by religiosity as a BELIEF system. To my reckoning, all believers of either dispensation happen to be nothing but members of Helig Olaf's herd.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 23:12 utc | 98

Likklemore @62

There's little doubt in my mind that the Saxons (and most of the "Ossis") who lived in the DDR, happen to for whatever reason have retained far more common sense than the "Wessies" , who grew up under U$$A occupation as whipped puppies and who generally adopted the insanity of a consumer lifestyle and Hollywood habits.

As long as no German "government" grows a pair and tells their occupiers to get the hell outta Dodge; the German government will remain as a puppet regime, toeing the line not only of the "Amis", but also of the Talmudist imperialists.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 23:18 utc | 99

POST 86... alek_a SAID: It is clear that as long as Surovikin (and associates) are in charge, there will be no Russian attempt to cut Ukrainian supply lines as the Ukrainian army would collapse in short time. The talk of a winter offensive to cut the supply lines is just talk. It will not happen as it would quickly lead to a Ukrainian defeat.

Surovikin will continue to claim that attacking into the teeth of the Ukrainian defenses is the only way to save Russian lives...

_______________________________________________

Are you suggesting Surovikin is a traitor to Russia? That he is purposely sabotaging the Russian war effort? If so, why?

I hadn't considered that possibility.

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Jan 14 2023 23:22 utc | 100

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