Why do any of you think the Russians care about saving lives? The have fired millions of unguided shells and rockets at Ukrainian cities.
I don’t think many people buy it when the west spreads freedom, I have no reason to buy the Russians spreading freedom either
The US controls money/trade and the Russians want to take control of money. The US need to give Russia a seat at the tabble or risk losing the majority of it’s power.
I don’t see how the west will let Russia rob them and take away all thier power without a serious fight. Like WW3 serious

Posted by: OohCanada | Jan 13 2023 21:34 utc | 104

Reisner’s latest report lost the veneer of neutrality the previous ones had.
Then again, to expect an Austrian officer to be neutral given that Austria is an another unofficial NATO member is to be unforgivably naive.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 13 2023 21:39 utc | 106

uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 21:26 utc | 97
Danger of nukes seems to have passed as nuke talk is mostly gone from our propaganda media. This started to die off after the meeting of the US and Russian security chiefs that was followed by a meeting between the intelligence chiefs of US and Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 21:43 utc | 108

From Z & V telegram channel…
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/47165
Official data of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
We are talking only about the cleansing of Soledar after the encirclement on January 10th. The total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries during the liberation of Soledar by the Wagner Group are more than 20,000 people
That number amounts to 20 BTGs…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 13 2023 21:54 utc | 110

It hasn’t really passed, it’s just suspended. Nukes are only going to be used if the Russians are pushed so far that the stability and integrity of Russia is in question. We’re not there yet, and in any case, Ukraine is likely to run out of men or materiel before that happens.
It’s not clear how the Russians would respond to Polish troops entering West Ukraine. There’s a case to be made that they should be blown up the moment they cross the border, but also an equally good case to let them deal with the cancerous entity that is Galicia.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 13 2023 21:56 utc | 112

Ironically, the most important news of our day is what Russia is doing in and around the Donbas.
The battle front news can accurately be followed with Dima at the Military Summary Channel, or Wyatt at Defense Politics Asia, or with Brian Berletic at the New Atlas, or Weeb Union, or with Alex Christoforu/Alexandar Mercouris at the Duran and others.
The most important news of our day is not what the West is acutally doing. The West is toast and that includes the USA. The West is toast spiritually. There is a long list of her decadence. Such leads to her end. Having the world’s reserve currency status funded her evil. That is about to be taken away.

Posted by: young | Jan 13 2023 22:05 utc | 114

@LightYearsFromHome
Which is why I have been persistently puzzled that the Russians didn’t mobilize more men for a big arrow move from Belarus. Out of all the strategies, it’s the only one that’s really a knife to the heart of Ukrainian resistance.

Posted by: Boo | Jan 13 2023 22:08 utc | 116

The next Russian missile barrage may be waiting for the targets to muster at the Polish Ukraine border.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/13/nato-ominous-tank-orders-for-ukraine-historic-spots-of-leopard/

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 22:22 utc | 118

nothing but the trut @ 114

why hasn’t Russia been doing this?

S-300s reach waay up. Among Russia’s many mistakes in 1991 was gifting a huge pile of high quality durable weapons to the ex-Warsaw pact pals, maybe hoping, “no hard feelings” for the communist years. At least they took the nukes back.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 22:28 utc | 120

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 21:22 utc | 95
Stranger things have happened, for example it appears the US is now run by ethnic Ukrainians …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 13 2023 22:42 utc | 122

I want to finish off with alast impression of the reisner vids.
I admit i watched only one of his vids which i did not perceive as “neutral” but pro nato.
A few things to know about the reisner context, which is austria.
1. Austria still has a military duty for all young men although not enforced heavily. Remembering my time at the army (the time itself was a utterly useless experience and was for most) in themid 2000s i recall that the enemy we were prepared for was russia.
2. Later on i met a lot of higher and middle rank officers at university where they learned russian.
3. Austria is a neutral country. Neutrality is based in its constitution. I wount go into historical reasons but will mention that the current political situation is such that the only partyinsisting on austrias neutrality is the so called far right fpö. All the other partys are pro eu pro nato pro west.
4. The army itself is a joke. There are no more than a few thousand professional soldiers. Those who are there because of the duty act according to the saying “god save austria because we cant do it”
Sidenote: in 2005 we were handed devices for field communications. They were built in the 1930s. We ended up using our private mobile phones to inform each other about our positions. Austria speng about 0.8% of its etat on military for decades. Now they raised it to 1.something% in the meantime they hadto sell tanks to keep going. The equipment generally is a joke.
5. Since its their is a military duty nobody wants a military involvement. Nobody wants his/her sons thrown to a battlefield in the east.
6. Rich and powerfull people have ways to keep their kids out of the military so the elite doesnt care about 5.
7. Reisner is a very atypical austrian army officer since he is neither obese nor mentally handicaped.

Posted by: Orgel | Jan 13 2023 22:45 utc | 124

On Sean Penn’s support for Zelensky;

“The Hollywood actor Sean Penn has called for a billionaire to come forward and buy two squadrons of F-15 or F-16 aircraft for Ukraine in an unlikely attempt to tip the scales against the Russian invaders in the five-week-old war.”

I find this strange given his anti-war stance in earlier years, for example his support of Ehren Watada’s conscientious objection to the Iraq war:

Public reaction to the trials
in support of Watada at an anti-war demonstration, Seattle, March 2007 rallies were held at the gates of Fort Lewis during the court-martial; the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported that the first day drew “more than 1,000” supporters,[42] including Desert Storm Veteran Dennis Kyne [43] and the actor[44] Sean Penn…

But, who is this man “Penn”?

Penn was born in Santa Monica, California,[4] to actor and director Leo Penn and actress Eileen Ryan (née Annucci).[4][5] His older brother is musician Michael Penn. His younger brother, actor Chris Penn, died in 2006.[6] His father was Jewish, the son of emigrants from Merkinė, Lithuania ,[7][8][9][10][11] while his mother is a Catholic of Irish and Italian descent.

… Funny, there’s that distinct pseudo-ethnic cultural link again …
Curiouser, and Curiouser ….

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 13 2023 22:51 utc | 126

Arch Bungle @ 123

But, who is this man “Penn”?

Penn, Bono, Zelensky, they are all possessed by Satan, that’s all you need to know.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 22:57 utc | 128

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 13 2023 22:51 utc | 123
Penn/Zelensky founding members of the Fraternal Order of Acting Degenerates… FOAD 😉

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 13 2023 23:05 utc | 130

Damage to Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure exceeds $127 billion, said First Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Emine Dzhaparova.
She added that the restoration of Ukraine “will be one of the largest investment projects.” “Ukraine has become the largest construction site in Europe, which provides a wide range of opportunities for international partners to use the best practices in the field of engineering, construction and technology transfer,” said Dzheppar.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28799
You’d think they’d rebuild Cleveland or Detroit first? Or some of the shit towns of the UK.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 23:18 utc | 132

@ uncle tungsten | 17
Regarding the Wagner group. I find them to be a very interesting phenomenon within Russia. I do agree with you that it is important to limit the infighting. But what is the purpose of Wagner in the larger scheme of things ?
Putin in the past has been frustrated by his attempts to force reform on the Russian Army. I’ve read that while he has had some success, reform is still bitterly resisted. If what I’ve read is accurate, there was a time, not too many years ago when there were more Colonels in the Russian army than Lieutenants ?
Is it possible that Wagner serves 2 purposes. One to provide hard fighting assault forces, but 2 to provide pressure on the Army to reform. There seems to be little doubt that, while the Russian Army has been heavily engaged, the Wagner forces have done a lot of the bitter, close quarters door knocking.
It would be interesting to learn more about Wagners experimentation with tactics and organization. Earlier in the war, I read some brief articles to the effect that Wagner was acquiring their own Artillery and Air Assets and building comms and process to vastly improve the response time between target identification and having artillery or air service that target…then just a week or so ago, I read an article in Russian Military review on how the Army has changed it’s methods for getting attacks on target reducing response time to 2 minutes.
So bottom line, I think Wagner is protected and tolerated as a means of getting difficult jobs done in a timely manner and also leaning on the Army to improve itself – put up or shut up kind of thing.

Posted by: Dan Farrand | Jan 13 2023 23:29 utc | 134

18 minutes ago: Finnish Parliament Speaker Cancels Visit to Turkey After Ankara Disinvites Swedish Rep [Sputnik]
58 minutes ago: Video: Blast Rocks Lithuania-Latvia Pipeline, Operators Say Explosion Unintentional [Sputnik]tps://sputniknews.com/20230113/video-blast-rocks-lithuania-latvia-pipeline-operators-say-explosion-unintentional-1106300562.html

A preliminary investigation showed no signs of foul play but that didn’t stop at least one Western media commentator from immediately pointing the finger at Russia anyway.

Posted by: Laurence | Jan 13 2023 23:49 utc | 136

LIghtYearsFromHome @129
“You’d think they’d rebuild Cleveland or Detroit first? Or some of the shit towns of the UK.”
another good reason for this being a must win for russia, eurasia, the global south and the west. they’ll just keep on murdering, “rebuilding,” treating the regular people terribly, until the world is their labor camp with glitter.
i think most know this by now, and will add strength to this cause.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Jan 13 2023 23:53 utc | 138

Expecting Russian aviation to behave like it’s Western counterpart misses the point, it never was or will be a mirror of NATO because of a substantial difference in doctrine. NATO, as has being recently shown, is heavily reliant on it’s aviation assets to achieve any significant operational results. Doctrine, forged in the later part of WW2 and the Cold War, slowly but surely, reversed the relationship making ground forces a subsidiary of the fast movers. Bean counters and high tech snake oil sellers encouraged the trend, as ground forces could be cut and the money spent on evermore expensive and growing social programmes and pockets could be stuffed with evermore expensive lobbying from the MIC.
The Russians on the other hand always saw it’s aviation assets as subordinate to the ground forces, with Cold War doctrine assigning missions based on operational objectives and often covering for artillery as it relocated to new firing positions. As a result, the Russian commander, in Ukraine, has far more tools to destroy targets than his NATO counterpart. There is as well, as has been mentioned, the little matter of flying in an extremely hostile AD environment. A fact recognised by NATO with it’s development of long range aerial weapon systems and crossed-fingers faith in stealth technology. It’s also the reason why there is such a disparity between the AD technologies of the rival sides, NATO relied on an air shield to protect it’s ground troops, Russia it’s SAM’s. Wonder what shock waves rippled through the Pentagon when they realised their HARM missiles were being shot down, or Ukr planes with upgraded Western ECM pods were being shot down at 200+km!

Posted by: Milites | Jan 14 2023 0:04 utc | 140

karlof1 | Jan 13 2023 22:57 utc | 126
‘More whining about Russia not making war the NATO way ‘
Yes indeed, USA style carpet bomb strategies do tend to backfire spectacularly. Russia doesn’t need yet another country full of ‘jihadists’ hell-bent on revenge. Do gung ho keyboard warriors think they are immune from nuclear war?
It does seem to have been more civilised company today in the bar. double cherry vodka? Cheers.

Posted by: olaf22 | Jan 14 2023 0:08 utc | 142

Milites @137–
Thanks for your excellent comment. Yes, doctrine, the way of war.
/////
On the current open thread, I just posted the translated transcript of TASS‘s interview with the Director of the Second Department of CIS countries of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia A.A. Polishchuk that covers several issues about Ukraine and Belarus/Union State I thought of posting to this tread since well over half is germane, particularly the twin issues of mediation and negotiation, which reveals some new policy info. I very much doubt any offensive will be launched via Belarus based on the interview.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 14 2023 0:17 utc | 144

Kyiv shows signs of desperation.
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2023/01/13/kyiv-shows-signs-of-desperation/

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 14 2023 0:29 utc | 146

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jan 14 2023 0:16 utc | 140
It was predictable last Autumn, when Kiev regime threw hundreds of MBT’s in their offensives on Kherson, and next in the Kupyansk offensive. They took humongous losses, and USA had to make a choice either to not give MBTs and watch the whole enterprise evaporate, or give them out of their own pockets to prop it up. Expectedly, they chose the latter.
That also means that the financial value of keeping Ukraine afloat can go up many multiples of last year. Following tanks, it’s natural that they would also then give F-15 and F-16 to replace the large losses of Mig-29 and Su-24, Su-25 fighter bomber losses.
We’ll see what happens next.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 14 2023 0:38 utc | 148

I see the usual death freaks and ghouls have shown up on MoA celebrating the tactical victory at Soledar as if it was the end of WWII. And of course it’s “because Russia cares” that it takes 6 months to take an insignificant village.
Russia has bit off more than it can chew. If/when the full-force of NATO engages then Russia will have a fight on its hands. As it is, only a PMC can gain ground. Regular Russian Army is already kaput. Putin will be gone in 6 months.
Say? When is the winter offensive gonna start? Should Europe already be on their hands and knees begging for Russian hydrocarbons. Don’t look now, but China is all ready to throw Putin over the side.
Go ahead now and return to your inhumane discussions of killing civilians.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 14 2023 0:53 utc | 150

Over on RT they’re heading off the thing with Wagner Group. This is good. I hope I’m not being repetitive.
“Russian MoD praises ‘selfless’ Wagner fighters”
“Fighters from the private military company Wagner Group have played a major role in liberating the strategic Donbass town of Soledar, the Russian Defense Ministry declared in a Telegram post on Friday.”

Posted by: chunga | Jan 14 2023 0:58 utc | 152

Stranger things have happened, for example it appears the US is now run by ethnic Ukrainians …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 13 2023 22:42 utc | 119
_____
US Knesset members must now pledge allegiance to both AIPAC and AUPAC? Little daylight between them I guess.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jan 14 2023 1:12 utc | 154

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 14 2023 0:38 utc | 145
interesting you post that usa/otan will send front line tactical jets!
gao just released a study about aging tactical aircraft, expensive to keep running and needing updated subsystems
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106375
check table 1.
the otan allies are far worse off.
the us has an aging fleet bc the super expensive not easy to test f-35, along with ford carriers and nuclear attack subs are expensive disarmamnet!
there isn’t enough parts and super technicians to run usa/otan jets out of ukraine!
bc they are buying f-35’s

Posted by: paddy | Jan 14 2023 1:17 utc | 156

s, just saw your second link and had a quick scan through it. Looks to cover the same issues as were described to Putin in the meeting at my link so I assume they are all part of the same group?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 1:27 utc | 158

Finland to EU. We’ll show you our Leopards if you show us yours. You guys go first.
“Finland could donate a small number of German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine if a wider group of European nations also decided to do so, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto was quoted as saying on Thursday.”
https://news.yahoo.com/finland-says-could-send-small-094109207.html

Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 1:32 utc | 160

Melaleuca | Jan 14 2023 1:12 utc | 152
There was a bit about Ukraine health stats in the Russian mod bio briefings. Not only diseases native to the area but also those native to pentagon labs. Has been a number of cases of exotic diseases since US labs kicked off in Ukraine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 1:33 utc | 162

Likklemore | Jan 14 2023 1:32 utc | 158
Zelensky refusing to negotiate was not palatable to the Europeans. What appeared looks like a UK written peace plan. Very simple. Russia leaves territories that where previously Ukraine including Crimea. All Donbas militia forces to also leave Ukraine. Western media put lipstick on bullshit and call it a peace plan.
According to the Ukraine channels, Zelensky was under pressure from the Americans to put up something to pacify the EU. I think US does want Zelensky to negotiate but that will put an end to his personal gravy train. Not to mention the role of perfidious albion in trying to keep the US focused on Russia. Everything from the Ukraine channels indicates it is MI6 and not CIA that owns Zelensky.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 1:56 utc | 164

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 22:22 utc | 115 “targets to muster at the Polish Ukraine border”
It’s very hard for them to hit mobile targets at that distance.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 14 2023 2:03 utc | 166

Posted by: sln2002 | Jan 14 2023 1:49 utc | 160 “The mental midgets managing the Price Cap Coalition”
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data
Until the stuff goes above $60 a barrel we won’t know how well it is or is not working.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 14 2023 2:09 utc | 168

‘Insignificant village’, you do realise it straddled an MSR? The UA General Staff certainly did, that’s why they lost 14 battalions trying to hold it. You do understand it was one of the lynch pins of the defence of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian Gov certainly do, that’s why they are still telling their citizens it’s being contested. Insignificant, As they say in The Prince’s Bride, ‘you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means’.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 14 2023 2:15 utc | 170

dh | Jan 14 2023 1:32 utc | 157
Leapards require Germany’s approval. Apparently that is forthcoming and the German defense minister has resigned. I assume Germany is coming under pressure from the US. Cannon fodder is cannon fodder and I guess that covers all of Europe.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 2:26 utc | 172

@Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 2:26 utc | 169
Leopards require Germany’s approval
Consider it done.
from Strategic Culture
There are a reported 2,000 German-made Leopards in service across 13 European countries. Officially, Berlin has to give its approval for countries to re-export the tank, which is seen as one of the world’s best in its class of main battlefield armored vehicles. That approval was swiftly forthcoming in [Vice Chancellor] Habeck’s affirmative response. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now under intense pressure to authorize the additional supply of Leopards directly from Germany to Ukraine. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 14 2023 2:43 utc | 174

“S-300s reach waay up”
most Russian aircraft downed seem to be by low altitude manpads.
S-300 though formidable, are difficult to hide. what cannot be hidden can be hunted.

Posted by: nothing but the trut | Jan 14 2023 2:49 utc | 176

Myself, Escobar and others have tried to paint the Big Picture but so far have only traced the contours. With his latest SCF essay, Crooke splashes some color and perspective, “The 2023 War – ‘Setting the Theatre’”. At least we don’t need to reserve seats, although the ticket price is currently an open question. His intro sets flesh to bone:

A top US Marine General, James Bierman, in a recent interview with the Financial Times, explained in a moment of candour how the US is “setting the theatre” for possible war with China, whilst casually admitting as an aside, how US defence planners had been busy inside Ukraine years ago, “earnestly preparing” for war with Russia — even down to the “pre-positioning of supplies”, identifying sites from which the US might operate support, and sustain operations. Simply put, they were there, readying the battle space for years.
No surprise really, as such military responses flow directly from the core US strategic decision to actuate the 1992 ‘Wolfowitz Doctrine’ that the US must plan and preemptively act, to disable any potential Great Power — well before it reaches the point at which it can rival or impair US hegemony.
NATO today has progressed to war with Russia in a battlespace, which in 2023, may or may not stay limited to Ukraine. Simply put the point is that the shift to ‘War’ (whether incremental or not) marks a fundamental transition from which there is no going back to ab initio — ‘war economies’ in essence, are structurally different to the ‘normal’ from which the West began, and to which it has grown accustomed over recent decades. A war society — even if only partly mobilised — thinks and acts structurally differently from peacetime society.

I see my failure to attempt writing a movie or play script kept me from using that perspective to describe our ongoing drama. What’s the status with accessing SCF barflies; still troubles? Please reply if you do and I’ll post it here on some dead thread while posting its URL for easy access. Yes, his essay is that important. You’ll see Crooke again emphasize the issue of energy and other resources–commodities in Pozsar’s terms. Yes, Pozar holds a prominent place as we should take note it we haven’t yet, for he’s evidence that Big Money isn’t being fed the false narrative, which IMO is very important regarding how far the war is allowed to progress.

Russia and China however, are certainly not naïve, and have been busy setting their own theatre, ahead of a potential wider clash with NATO.
China and Russia can now claim to have built a strategic relationship, not only with OPEC+, but with Iran and key gas producers.
Russia, Iran, and Venezuela account for about 40% of the world’s proven oil reserves, and each of them are currently selling oil to China for renminbi at a steep discount. GCC countries account for another 40% of proven oil reserves — and are being courted by China to accept renminbi for their oil — in exchange for transformative investments.
This is a significant new battlespace being readied — ending Dollar hegemony through boiling the frog slowly.

Personally, I’m gratified that Crooke focused on the Geopolitics and Geoeconomics of our drama instead of dallying with the various ideologies at play as he’s done in the past. Yet, psychology clearly remains in play as previously proffered making Crooke’s conclusion very realistic:

The same dysfunctionality has been apparent in many slow-rolling western crises: Nevertheless, we persist… because protecting the fragile psychology of our leaders — and an influential sector of the public — takes precedence. The inability to countenance losing drives our élites to prefer sacrifice by their own people, rather than see their delusions exposed.
Hence, reality has to be abjured. So, we live a nebulous between-times — so much happening, but so little movement. Only when the outbreak of crisis can no longer be ignored — by even the MSM and Tech censors — might some real effort be made to address root causes.
This conundrum however, places a huge burden on the shoulders of Moscow and Beijing to manage the War escalation in a careful fashion — in face of a West for whom losing is intolerable. [My Emphasis]

.
Together with the SCF editorial linked upthread, the small picture of Ukraine is coming into focus within the still hazy Big Picture. I’m sure the screenplay will be honed as we go forward.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 14 2023 3:04 utc | 178

I meant a 2S6. Sorry.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jan 14 2023 3:10 utc | 180

@174 This tank thing is very strange. Yes, Germany has given permission to other countries to export tanks but nobody seems in a hurry to be first. And will Germany be sending its own tanks? Who will crew them? Looks like a major escalation. I guess we’ll find out soon.

Posted by: dh | Jan 14 2023 3:20 utc | 182

Alistar Crooke defines the battle space of WWIII
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/13/the-2023-war-setting-the-theatre/

The China-Russia axis are lighting the fires of a structural insurrection against the West across much of the Rest of World. Its fires are aimed at ‘boiling the frog slowly’
A top US Marine General, James Bierman, in a recent interview with the Financial Times, explained in a moment of candour how the US is “setting the theatre” for possible war with China, whilst casually admitting as an aside, how US defence planners had been busy inside Ukraine years ago, “earnestly preparing” for war with Russia — even down to the “pre-positioning of supplies”, identifying sites from which the US might operate support, and sustain operations. Simply put, they were there,readying the battle space for years.
No surprise really, as such military responses flow directly from the core US strategic decision to actuate the 1992 ‘WolfowitzDoctrine’ that the US must plan and preemptively act, to disable any potential Great Power — well before it reaches the point at which it can rival or impair US hegemony.
NATO today has progressed to war with Russia in a battlespace, which in 2023, may or may not stay limited to Ukraine. Simply put the point is that the shift to ‘War’ (whether incremental or not) marks a fundamental transition from which there is no going back to ab initio — ‘war economies’ in essence, are structurally different to the ‘normal’ from which the West began, and to which it has grown accustomed over recent decades. A war society — even if only partly mobilised — thinks and acts structurally differently from peacetime society.
War is not about gentlemanly conduct… either. Empathy for others is its first casualty — the latter being a requirement for sustaining a fighting spirit.
Yet, the carefully curated fiction in Europe and the US continues that nothing really has, or will ‘change’: we are in a temporary ‘blip’. That’s all.
Zoltan Pozsar, the influential finance ‘oracle’ at Credit Suisse, has already made the point in his latest War and Peace essay (subscription only) that War is well underway – by simply listing the events of 2022:
The G7’s financial blockade of Russia (The West setting the battle space)
Russia’s energy blockade of the EU (Russia begins setting its theatre)
The U.S.’s technology blockade of China (America pre-positioning of sites to sustain operations)
China’s naval blockade of Taiwan, (China demonstrating preparedness)
The U.S.’s “blockade” of the EU’s EV sector with the Inflation Reduction Act. (The US defence planners preparing for future ‘supply-lines)
China’s “pincer movement” around all of OPEC+ with the growing trend of invoicing oil and gas sales in renminbi. (The Russia-China ‘Commodity Battlespace’).
This list amounts to one major geo-political ‘upset’ occurring, on average, every two months — moving the world decisively away from the so-called ‘normal’ (for which so many in the Consuming Class ardently yearn) to an intermediate state of War.
Pozsar’s list shows that the tectonic plates of geo-politics are seriously ‘on the move’ — shifts, which are accelerating and becoming ever more intertwined, yet that still remain far from arriving at any settled place. ‘War’ will likely be a major disruptor (at the very least), until some equilibrium is established. And that may take some years.
Ultimately, ‘War’ does make its impact on the conventional public mindset — albeit slowly. It seems to be fear of the impact on an unprepared mindset that is behind the decision to prolong Ukraine’s suffering, and thus trigger the War of 2023: An admission of failure in Ukraine is seen to risk spooking volatile western markets (i.e. higher interest rates for longer). And frank-talking represents a hard option for a western world — used to ‘easy decisions’, and ‘can kicking’ — to take.
Pozsar, being a finance guru, understandably is focussed in his essay on finance. But conceivably, the reference to Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes is therefore not whimsical, but included as a hint to the possible ‘hit’ to the conventional psyche.
In any event, Pozsar leaves us four key economic takeaways (with brief comments added):
War is history’s principle driver of inflation, and the bankruptcy for states. (Comment: war-driven inflation and Quantitative Tightening (QT) enacted to fight inflation, are policies working in radical opposition to each other. Central Banks’ role attenuates to supporting war needs — at the expense of other variables – in wartime.
War implies an effective and expandable industrial capacity for producing weapons (rapidly), which, in itself, requires secure supply-lines to feed that capacity. (A quality which the West no longer possesses, and which is costly to recreate);
Commodities which often serve as collateral to loans become scarce – and with that scarcity, show up as commodity ‘inflation’;
And finally, War cuts new financial channels i.e. “the m-CBDC Bridge project” (see here).
The point needs underlining again: War creates different financial dynamics and shapes a different psyche. More importantly, ‘War’ is not a stable phenomenon. It can start with petty tit-for-tat strikes on a rival’s infrastructure and then — with every incremental ‘mission creep’ — slip along the curve towards full war. NATO is not just mission creeping in its war on Russia, it is mission jogging — fearing a Ukraine humiliation in the wake of the earlier Afghanistan débacle.
The EU hopes to halt that slide well short of full war. It is nonetheless a very slippery slope. The point of War is to inflict pain and attrit your enemy. To this extent it is open to mutation. Formal sanctions and caps on energy quickly metamorphose into the sabotage of pipelines or the seizure of tankers.
Russia and China however, are certainly not naïve, and have been busy setting their own theatre, ahead of a potential wider clash with NATO.
China and Russia can now claim to have built a strategic relationship, not only with OPEC+, but with Iran and key gas producers.
Russia, Iran, and Venezuela account for about 40% of the world’s proven oil reserves, and each of them are currently selling oil to China for renminbi at a steep discount. GCC countries account for another 40% of proven oil reserves — and are being courted by China to accept renminbi for their oil — in exchange for transformative investments.
This is a significant new battlespace being readied — ending Dollar hegemony through boiling the frog slowly.
The contesting party made the initial strike, sanctioning half of OPEC with those 40% of the world’s oil reserves. That thrust failed: the Russian economy survived — and unsurprisingly — the sanctions ‘lost’ those states to Europe, ‘handing them’ over instead to China.
China meanwhile is courting the other half of OPEC with an offer that is hard to refuse: “Over the next “three to five years”, China will not only pay for more oil in renminbi – but more significantly, ‘will pay’ with new investments in downstream petrochemical industries in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC more broadly. It will, in other words, build out the successor generation economy” for these fossil fuel exporters whose energy sell-by date approaches.
The key point here is that in the future, much more ‘value-added’ (in the course of production) will be captured locally — at the expense of industries in the West. Pozsar cheekily calls this: “Our commodity, your problem… Our commodity, our emancipation”. Or, in other words, the China-Russia axis are lighting the fires of a structural insurrection against the West across much of the Rest of World.
Its fires are aimed at ‘boiling the frog slowly’ — not just that of the dollar hegemony, but also that of a now uncompetitive western economy.
Emancipation? Yes! Here is the crux: China is receiving Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan energy at a big 30% discount.Meanwhile, Europe still gets energy for its industry — but only at a big mark-up. In short, more, and occasionally all, product added-value will be captured by cheap-energy ‘friendly’ states, at the expense of the uncompetitive ‘unfriendlies’.
“China – the nemesis – paradoxically has been a big exporter of high mark-up Russian LNG to Europe, and India a big exporter of high mark-up Russian oil and refined products such as diesel – to Europe. We should expect more [of this in the future] across more products – and invoiced not just in euros and dollars, but also renminbi, dirhams, and rupees’ ‘, Poszar suggests.
It may not look so obvious, but it is a financial war. If the EU is content to take the ‘easy way’ out of its fall into uncompetitiveness (via subsidies to allow for high-mark-up imports), then as Napoleon once remarked when observing an enemy making a mistake: Observe silence!
For Europe, this means much less domestic production – and more inflation — as price inflating alternatives are imported from the East. The West taking the ‘easy decision’ (since its renewable strategy has not been well thought through), likely will find the arrangement to be at the expense of growth in the West — a course prefiguring a weaker West, in the near future.
The EU will be particularly hard-hit. It has elected to become dependent on US LNG, just at the moment that production from US shale fields has peaked, with what output there is likely ear-marked to the US domestic market.
Thus, as general Bierman outlined how the US prepared the battlespace in Ukraine, Russia and China and the BRICS planners have been busy setting their own ‘theater’.
Of course, it doesn’t have to be like it ‘is’: Europe’s stumble towards calamity reflects an embedded psychology of the Western ruling élite. There is no strategic reasoning, nor ‘hard-decisions’ being taken in the West at all. It is all narcissistic Merkelism (hard decisions postponed, and then ‘fudged’ through subsidy handouts). Merkelism is so called after Angela Merkel’s reign at the EU, where fundamental reform was invariably postponed.
There is no need for thinking-things-through, or for hard decisions, when leaders are held by the unshakable conviction that the West IS the centre of the Universe. It is sufficient to postpone, awaiting the inexorable to unfold itself.
The recent history of US-led forever-wars is further evidence of this western lacuna: These zombie wars drag on for years with no plausible justification, only to be unceremoniously dropped. The strategic dynamics were easier suppressed and forgotten however, when fighting insurgency wars — as opposed to fighting two well-armed, peer competitor-states.
The same dysfunctionality has been apparent in many slow-rolling western crises: Nevertheless, we persist… because protecting the fragile psychology of our leaders — and an influential sector of the public — takes precedence. The inability to countenance losing drives our élites to prefer sacrifice by their own people, rather than see their delusions exposed.
Hence, reality has to be abjured. So, we live a nebulous between-times — so much happening, but so little movement. Only when the outbreak of crisis can no longer be ignored — by even the MSM and Tech censors — might some real effort be made to address root causes.
This conundrum however, places a huge burden on the shoulders of Moscow and Beijing to manage the War escalation in a careful fashion — in face of a West for whom losing is intolerable.
We live in interesting times…..
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 14 2023 3:29 utc | 184

karlof1 | Jan 14 2023 3:04 utc | 175
Perhaps I am wrong but it looks to me both Russia and US are intent on keeping this war within Ukraine. Moving it into Nato countries opens a can of worms for the US. US has no intention of being destroyed to save its vassals. Perhaps that will change in the future. At the moment US is forcing Europe to walk the tightrope. Leopards into Ukraine means many European tank crews will be killed. Poland appears to be paying a price in dead at the moment though they will most likely end up with western Ukraine.
We now see the world gearing up for the decade or more of turbulence Hudson wrote about and I did not agree with at the time. I don’t think there will be direct conflict between US and Russia, though there could be direct conflict between US and China. But even there, US will be constricted as China is a Russian ally and a nuclear attack on China will be a nuclear attack on Russia. I assume you remember Putin’s speech where he talked about US nuclear attacks on allies in the Trump era.
Hybrid proxy wars for the foreseeable future plus the turbulence and small wars that go hand in hand with the collapse of empires.
And as always, much appreciate your input here.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 14 2023 3:32 utc | 186

@184
Especially if it’s in italics.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 14 2023 3:38 utc | 188

@ uncle tungsten | Jan 14 2023 0:47 utc | 146
I’ve been thinking Prigozhin was showing signs of Khadyrov Syndrome.
A little puffing out of pride is understandable, but neglecting at least brief reference to the contributions of others, such as the VDV blocking to North and South (IIRC) at Soledar, is crude and ungracious.

Posted by: John Kennard | Jan 14 2023 3:44 utc | 190

Bloomberg
Germany will make a decision on sending Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine in the next week, as European allies assess how to help the government in Kyiv in the event fighting builds in the spring. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 14 2023 3:52 utc | 192

Milites@167
What some of our posters do not get is the melding of geography with military maneuvers and movements. There are perhaps three forms of geography which hamper fast moving assaults. In the battle of Tannenberg, when the Imperial Russian army was invading East Prussia right at the beginning of WWI, their forces became split and muddled by the Masurian lakes across that territory. They were unable to establish unit cohesion due to those water obstacles popping up all across a broad swathe of territory. Thus, the rushed in forces of Hindenberg and Ludendorff, who brought those corps and divisions from the Western front by means of Imperial Germany’s well built-up railway systems, were able to follow predetermined assembly plans and essentially succeed in defeating Rennenkamp’s Russian forces in detail.
From water obstacles to one readily grasped by students of military history, that little matter of attacking in primarily mountainous terrain can best be exemplified by General Kesselring’s professional employments of a not terribly large German military force against an Allied offensive moving northwards from Salerno and Naples, heading northwards to first run into the Hitler Line and after that the Gothic Line, which was anchored by the Rapido river and Monte Casino.
The German units made extensive use of mines and mortars, plus their superior LMG’s and the advantage of the high ground. Unable to even drive jeeps up those hills and mountains, the American and allied forces such as the Poles, the French North African troops and even British units from all across the Commonwealth; were first obliged to supply their troops first with mules and in the steepest areas with the backs of their soldiers. The First World War, in the Dolemites, was mainly fought by special mountain troops, Jaegers by the Austro-Hungarians and Alpini and Bersaglieri by the Italians. Mountainous terrain would qualify as second most difficult for the attackers.
Ultimately, we arrive at the most difficult of all battlefields for the attackers…highly built-up urban areas with multi-story buildings crowded close together and constructed of brick, concrete, steel and stone. You don’t even want to think about assaulting those places with any type of armor. Currently, our lesson here in the recently liberated Soledar, has been Russian lavish use of artillery, mortars and rockets to crumble the protective buildings…that and highly trained (and compensated) assault troops, the Wagners. The only equivalent assault units are to be found within the U.S. Marine Corps, all heavily indoctrinated and full of piss and vinegar along with a “gung ho” level of esprit de corps.
Again, that third and most plangent factor, urban agglomerations. Right across that now punctured main line of defense for the Ukies, one needs must check out a detailed map, where you will find a conglomeration of mid-sized and small cities, with a few villages and very little open land in between them. A heavily industrialized area, the largest such in either Ukraine or Russia itself and heavily fortified in Maginot Line fashion over the past 8 years by the Ukies, the Donbass is a nightmare for “Big Arrow” attacks based on armor and maneuver. Once Artemovsk/Bakhmut is liberated; Russian armor will be able to burst through the gap and head into the fat, flat, fertile steppe country. Instead of crawling along at perhaps just a few meters per day in that industrial zone, it’s quite possible that daily advances of Russian armor and their logistical trains could advance by double figures in kilometers on a daily basis.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 3:53 utc | 194

S | Jan 13 2023 23:46 utc | 132
>”…Zvinchuk, Medvedev and others are not “whinging,” they are doing exactly what the President has tasked them to do: find and publicize problems that must be solved.”
Interesting. Thanks.
…~…
That surely must be one of the special sauce ingredients In Putin’s longevity and undeniable achievements as Russian president.
He seeks, listens to, verifies, and acts on information reaching him across the stratum of society.
He knows well the old Soviet style of “cover your arse” lies up and down the chain of command.
Embowered within the world’s oldest profession is bureaucracy.
Putin’s early, annual national phone-a-thons, the Direct Line with Vladimir Putin was the strongest possible message that speaking out and speaking up was permissible.
Of course too much dissent and dissatisfaction opens too big a fissure for the Fifth columnists and western NGOSs to exploit.
So, take control of the disaffection. Have Medvedev speak, have him say “what people are really thinking”. Then have Putin step in and “resolve” the issue.
The alarming loss of lives of military males in sloSMO V.1… was causing angst and anger…. So, have journalists report.
Let the mothers speak of their grief. Let the nation share and empathise.
Then have Putin meet with a delegation. He now has a platform to touchstone the Great Patriotic War.
~…’Our grandfathers and fathers fought the Nazis. We are once again threatened by the very same Nazis, and we too must sacrifice for the Fatherland, just as those before us paid with their lives. How can we not.’
Medvedev fills the “utility player” role on the team.
Putin can’t waste the pristine diplomacy skills of Lavrov by having him make disparaging and rude comments..(Lavrov is allowed Maria, whose tongue lashings make the west wince).
Peskov is Putin’s official spokesman, so again, must be circumspect and restrained.
Meds-vedev is the court joker, the jester, a Pulcinella-style character.
He has the freedom to be as rude and vulgar as he wants when puncturing the pomposity of the west; simultaneously he is Putin’s valued deputy/nuncio, received with respect and gravitas by Xi.
Medvedev is allowed to vent; he provides that much needed pressure release.
Putin is the quintessential master of Politik. Knowing the best way to counter recusancy is to lead it yourself.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 14 2023 3:58 utc | 196

Bill Smith@164
Perhaps a more accurate description of Western arms as a perceived “game changer”…a better analogy might be the American football term of “delay of game”.
Speaking of that football analog, it might be amusing if the Russians make a major breakthrough on one of four possible fronts on Superbowels Sunday. Why Superbowels? Likely only fellow Yanks have a clear picture of the amount of junk food and beer American football fans devour on that most “precious” religious holiday.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 3:59 utc | 198

bill smith @163
Billy Boy: The Russians do need to be within artillery or light rocket range to interrupt quite seriously the Ukrainian feeder coming in from Poohland. There have been several reports of stand-off Russian aircraft, hovering over Belarus, rocketing moving targets such as Ukraine’s fast fading aircraft from a distance of 200 kilometers.
Of curse those weapons are missiles rather than rockets, but missiling is so out of it that my automated spell checker insists on making it misfiring. Artificial Intelligence is not always self-correctable. The more “labor-saving” innovations we get, it seems that the more labor it takes to deal with the shit.
Ya gotta be quick on your toes to keep up with this war.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 14 2023 4:07 utc | 200