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January 13, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-12
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Soledar direction situation as of 13.00 January 13
In the Soledar sector, the assault detachments of the PMC “Wagner” are clearing the quarters and underground communications on the western outskirts of Soledar. Today, Wagner entered the territory of the urban-type settlement of Sol and established control over the depot of the railway station of the same name.
▪️In the north-west of Soledar, active battles are taking place on the southern outskirts of Krasnaya Gora and in Paraskovievka near the Bakhmutka River. After the liberation of the railway station Sol, the village of Blagodatnoye was actually cut off from the supply lines from Seversk and Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
▪️The surviving members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Soledar and its environs are spreading information about huge losses in manpower due to command errors. In one of the brigades in the company of the formation, only 30 people remained, and in the battalion of 24 OMBR out of 300, only 100 fighters survived.
Fighting continues in Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and its suburbs. After the liberation of Opytnoe by PMC Wagner, position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city is deteriorating.
▪️In Minkovka, a reserve command post for the consolidated group has been equipped, and the forces of the 116th brigade of the territorial defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Sumy region are expected to arrive.
▪️As a result of the active offensive of the RF Armed Forces, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost control over two company and two platoon strongholds in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), Kleshcheevka and Krasnaya Gora.
▪️Only on January 12, confirmed losses of Ukrainian formations in Artemovsk amounted to 100 people, and 39 were wounded. To strengthen positions, 600 mobilized servicemen without combat experience are expected to be transferred in the near future.
▪️According to the radio interception from Artemovsk, over 800 people have been killed over the past five days, not counting missing and wounded.
In addition, individual units of Polish mercenaries, who were transferred to the direction a few weeks earlier, suffered huge losses.
The Poles spread information about the loss of communication and the complete disunity between the formations in Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and the surrounding area. The moral and psychological state of mercenaries is at a low level.
▪️The forces of the 3rd Battalion of the 28th Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted a counteroffensive on Russian positions southwest of Artemovsk (Bakhmust). The attack was repulsed, and separate detachments of the 28th brigade fled from the combat area.
The leadership of the Ukrainian operational-tactical group “Soledar” assesses the situation as critical and expects the intensification of the offensive of Russian troops at the Berestovoye-Spornoye line in order to reach the Seversk agglomeration, as well as in the south at the Ozaryanovka-Mayorsk line towards Druzhba and Dyleevka.
The release of Opytnoe allows the start of advancements on the southern outskirts of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), as well as attacking the fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kleshcheevka from the east.
Posted by: Soledar | Jan 13 2023 14:53 utc | 1
At Slavyangrad, they cite a Ukr prisoner’s reputed testimony about the background of the recent dead. Including college academics, it sounds like a cross section of the upper level of Ukr society simply tossed into the meat grinder. Add on testimony about police from Chernihiv being forced into demise and it appears Ukraine is losing its human infrastructure as well as the physical. 404, indeed.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 13 2023 14:59 utc | 2
This has been a great week for Russia already, and the latest wave of missiles hasn’t even launched yet. I wonder if they’ll finally target the Dniper bridges this time.
Posted by: catdog | Jan 13 2023 15:07 utc | 3
Tass reports on USA demise due to debacle in Ukraine – as described by French expert.
https://tass.com/world/1561887
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:09 utc | 4
Posted by: catdog | Jan 13 2023 15:07 utc | 3 “latest wave of missiles hasn’t even launched yet”
When was the last large wave of missiles launched by Russia?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 13 2023 15:09 utc | 5
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:09 utc | 4
Youngsters may not remember that Emmanuel Todd predicted the demise of the Soviet Union years before the actual event that the MSM credited to Reagan.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jan 13 2023 15:22 utc | 6
SwissArmyMan #6
I did not know that. It’s nice to be considered young. Todd’s forecast is interesting but brief in the Tass report. I shall dig further. I appreciated his data point regarding engineering based student outcomes.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:30 utc | 8
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:09 utc | 4
Youngsters may not remember that Emmanuel Todd predicted the demise of the Soviet Union years before the actual event that the MSM credited to Reagan.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jan 13 2023 15:22 utc | 6
Around 1976, if I remember correctly.
He also predicted the end of the US’ empire in 2002 or thereabouts. Something about declining demographic statistics.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 13 2023 15:32 utc | 9
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:09 utc | 4
thanks for the link. good article by a French man.
bottom line– Russia vs the West, only one will prevail.
Wish I would have studied Russian.
Posted by: migueljose | Jan 13 2023 15:36 utc | 10
Ukraine is out of time according to Jackson Hinkle.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XV5A6OrErps
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:44 utc | 11
Attempts are being made to create, or overblow, a rift between Prigozhin and Moscow.
Posted by: chunga | Jan 13 2023 15:44 utc | 12
Migueljose #10
It’s never too late 😉
The tragedy is that the west diplomatic service has never truly studied it either.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:49 utc | 13
When was the last large wave of missiles launched by Russia?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 13 2023 15:09 utc | 5
Two weeks ago. We’re overdue- maybe that’s a sign that this time it will be different.
Posted by: catdog | Jan 13 2023 15:53 utc | 14
The video where Scott Ritter really laid out the danger humanity is in with nuclear war is a real possibility now. From the Diane Sare Youtube channel.
https://youtu.be/FNZwbqI02UE
Posted by: morongobill | Jan 13 2023 15:54 utc | 15
Bemildred @ 9
In lecture in 1973 my Russian history professor, James Cracraft, told us the Soviets had fifteen or twenty years left. Cracraft was pretty good. His real interest was Russian Orthodox church under Peter the Great. What he told us had become a commonplace and would have been the view of many.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 13 2023 15:57 utc | 16
chunga #12
I noticed over the last 24 hours there has been an effort to hose down the pathetic ego politics from Wagner. Good. If solidarity is undermined and ignored in this project it will be a disaster.
Slavyangrad has shifted the nuance a wee bit and lowered the cheer squaddie prattle that was becoming almost denigration of the immense effort given by the Russian army.
Even Russians can succumb to private sector worship I guess 😉
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:58 utc | 17
Below is the world according to Reuters still
Russia said on Friday that its forces had taken control of the town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine, in what would be a rare success for Moscow after months of battlefield reverses, but Kyiv said its troops were still fighting in the town.
Months of battlefield reverses………????
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 13 2023 16:04 utc | 18
An interesting dissent from the German retired military:
Erich Vad: Was sind die Kriegsziele?
https://www.emma.de/artikel/erich-vad-was-sind-die-kriegsziele-340045
Erich Vad ist Ex-Brigade-General. Von 2006 bis 2013 war er der militärpolitische Berater von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel. Er gehört zu den raren Stimmen, die sich früh öffentlich gegen Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine ausgesprochen haben, ohne politische Strategie und diplomatische Bemühungen. Auch jetzt spricht er eine unbequeme Wahrheit aus….
B, do you know anything about this man?
Posted by: Susan | Jan 13 2023 16:05 utc | 19
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-biden-have-stopped-russia-invading-ukraine-206105
For those of you who think nuclear war over Ukraine might be started by the US, this is disturbing. The warmongers are so utterly blind and amoral in their thinking that diplomacy and negotiation doesn’t come up. It isn’t even a ‘thing’. How could we have detered Russia in Ukraine? More weapons, more sanctions, more threats of war.
Sadly, I would think this tends to support the seemingly crazy idea that the US or NATO starts a nuclear war because they bizarrely see no alternative. It doesn’t occur to them.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 13 2023 16:11 utc | 20
Slavyangrad has shifted the nuance a wee bit and lowered the cheer squaddie prattle that was becoming almost denigration of the immense effort given by the Russian army. Even Russians can succumb to private sector worship I guess 😉
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:58 utc | 17
Russian army yes, a great effort. Even more considering the losing strategy they were forced to use and to accept torture while the cardboard generals offered ceasefire and protected nazis at all costs then released them. No hits on the transport. No strikes on the still working power grid. No strikes on fuel or factories.
Abramovich says no? What if Abramovich says “Goodbye, Putin”?
Posted by: rk | Jan 13 2023 16:32 utc | 22
When was the last large wave of missiles launched by Russia?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Jan 13 2023 15:09 utc | 5
Two weeks ago. We’re overdue- maybe that’s a sign that this time it will be different.
Posted by: catdog | Jan 13 2023 15:53 utc | 14
I suspect we’ll have to wait for the post-war history books to be written to find out if the energy grid strikes amounted to anything more than harassment of Ukrainian military transport and logistics (as opposed to crippling them). My guess is it’s harassment fire and will never rise about that level. If the Russians really took out the power grid it would be a catastrophe for civilians and I don’t think the Kremlin wants to do that.
I suppose it’s possible that Russia really is running short of missiles and/or Ukraine has prioritized air defence around energy grid targets … meaning Russia will in some combination mount fewer missile attacks or at less defended non-energy targets. However, I’m inclined to think what we’re actually seeing is the Kremlin continuing to require the military to pull its punches.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Jan 13 2023 17:14 utc | 23
@ uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 15:23 utc | 7
lol! thanks for your other posts here too… looking at the tass article next..
Posted by: james | Jan 13 2023 17:19 utc | 24
Colonel Macgregor talked about TB in the Ukrainian army, spreading among the troops and not being dealt with effectively due to the pressure on health services inundated with wounded: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgAxMdW5Jik Does anyone know anything about this?
Posted by: Rob Campbell | Jan 13 2023 17:24 utc | 25
A current look at the “state” of Ukraine…
https://english.pravda.ru/world/155406-zelensky_ukraine_destruction/
Posted by: Jo | Jan 13 2023 17:24 utc | 26
From Interception Z telegram channel….
https://t-me.translate.goog/dvesti22?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
https://t.me/dvesti22/21068
Kyiv source said:
Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny reported to Zelensky at headquarters about the need for new supplies of Western military assistance to organize a counteroffensive. More than 30% of the equipment is now being repaired, and we are forced to send the equipment back to Poland and the Czech Republic, since the repair teams cannot correct the situation on the spot. There are only 130 guns and about a hundred self-propelled guns in service now, which does not allow to radically influence the situation in Bakhmut.
https://t.me/resident_ua/15901
Would seem too few for any offensive, let alone countering a major attack.
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 13 2023 17:25 utc | 27
From Intel Slava Z telegram channel…
https://t.me/intelslava/43338
It is reported that in the evening there is an assault on the settlement. Paraskoveevka. It is located in the north of the suburb of Artyomovsk.
Now they report that separate units of Russian troops are already in the village and are fighting for the center of the settlement.
https://t.me/intelslava/43339
AFU failed three attempts to counterattack in Soledar. Zaluzhny recommended that Zelensky not launch new attacks and focus on the defense of Bakhmut, since Kiev does not want to withdraw troops.
The first link contains a map which shows the village astride the RR line north from Bakhmut, basically cutting the route north to Sieversk… This, combined with efforts in the south, basically reduces resupply to one route directly west of Bakhmut.
INDY
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 13 2023 17:40 utc | 28
@susan – Erich Vad knows what he is talking about. He is pushing for diplomacy instead of weapon deliveries.
@all –
Colonel Markus Reisner on the War for Ukraine. He takes a look at the first lessons identified and the challenges we might see in the weeks and months to come.
War for Ukraine – First Conclusions from 2022 and New Challenges 2023 (vid)
Emmanuel Todd is one of the few french intellectual that qualifies as such.
B provided a link to a very interresting thread on his twitter account related to the same publication from le figaro, mentioned by TASS . Highly recomended : https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1613924570725244928
Another french thinker worth reading these days is Thierry Meyssan:
“It is a constant of History: changes are rare, but sudden. Those who bear the brunt of them are generally the last to see them coming. They perceive them only too late. Contrary to the static image that prevails in the West, international relations have been turned upside down in 2022, mainly to the detriment of the United States, the United Kingdom and France, often to the benefit of China and Russia. With their eyes riveted on Ukraine, Westerners do not perceive the redistribution of the cards.”
https://www.voltairenet.org/article218636.html
Hubris it is called.
Posted by: malamatias | Jan 13 2023 17:43 utc | 30
B, do you know anything about this man?
Posted by: Susan | Jan 13 2023 16:05 utc | 19
What do you hope to learn from Bernd about Erich Vad?
Apparently he is a former professional soldier in the Bundeswehr who retired in 2013.
There is currently an article about him on RT de.
https://de.rt.com/inland/159739-ex-brigadegeneral-erich-vad-deutsche/
“Vad describes himself as a “convinced transatlanticist” who “would rather live under an American hegemony than under a Russian or Chinese one”.”
“In his theoretical function as a military advisor, he would currently have advised the German government to “support Ukraine militarily, but in a measured and prudent way, in order to avoid slippery slope effects into a war party.””
He is not against war and arms supplies, hegemony etc. …
Posted by: 600w | Jan 13 2023 17:45 utc | 31
With all the destruction taking place anyway, I don’t understand why the Russians are taking months by using world war one tactics to subdue Uki’ forces rather than dropping a few 500 pound bombs from a plane, and getting it all over with in a payload drop or two?
Posted by: robert | Jan 13 2023 17:45 utc | 32
From Slavyangrad Telegram channel…
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28728
Titanium wars: Americans block Russian titanium supplies
One of Africa’s largest airlines, Kenya Airways, has reported that it is experiencing flight disruptions due to problems related to acquiring the titanium parts and aircraft components it needs to maintain its aircraft, which were supplied from the Russian market.
📝”This has limited aircraft availability because we don’t have any spare planes, whose use could help reduce delays.” “These problems are global and affect not only Kenya Airways, but all airlines around the world,” said Kenya Airways CEO Allan Kilavuka.
❗️ A little bit of Russia is in every Boeing-produced airplane.
𗅇️For example, 100% of the titanium used by Brazilian airline Embraer and 35% of the titanium used by Boeing comes from Russia.
❗️Now airlines had to look all over the world for the titanium parts they needed (titanium is used in the manufacture of aircraft landing gear, engines, and airframes).
This shortage will make impossible construction of military aircraft by NATO countries…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 13 2023 18:09 utc | 33
Posted by: robert | Jan 13 2023 17:45 utc | 31
Probably because Russia has determined that Ukrainian anti-air defense supported by live US intel remains dangerous for Russian planes flying at bomb-dropping altitudes
Posted by: WJ | Jan 13 2023 18:12 utc | 34
Russia must somehow create a huge refugee influx to EU.
That is the only way to safely inflict pain to the West.
Otherwise, the West wins.
Posted by: sapun | Jan 13 2023 18:13 utc | 35
robert @ 31
With all the destruction taking place anyway, I don’t understand why the Russians are taking months by using world war one tactics to subdue Uki’ forces rather than dropping a few 500 pound bombs from a plane, and getting it all over with in a payload drop or two?
Maybe this, though in war the usual calculations make the civilians the last priority.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28734
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 18:14 utc | 36
I am increasingly of the opinion that Russia is avoiding a major offensive because it fears that doing so will prompt the neo-con driven US into making a very stupid decision that will end in nuclear war. The Russian approach seems to be to go as slow as possible, which allows for maximum grinding of US hardware and Ukrainian/NATO personnel while avoiding the kind of shock and awe drama that could prompt the US to make a very stupid and dangerous decision. So I envision a bunch of small pushes all focused in the Donbass rather than any big arrow offensives. No idea if I’m right, but I do believe that Russia wants to avoid nuclear war, and is concerned that the US might make that difficult to avoid if the situation is not handled with utmost delicacy.
Posted by: WJ | Jan 13 2023 18:16 utc | 37
@ LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 18:14 utc | 35
that is just so unamerican… folks like robert probably live in the good ole usa and would never think of that.. it is so unamerican..
Posted by: james | Jan 13 2023 18:16 utc | 38
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 18:14 utc | 35
I’m skeptical that months of urban artillery exchange is likely to lead to demonstrably lower civilian casualities than a precision bombing campaign. (I don’t think Russia would engage in carpet bombing.) My bet, as stated above, is that Ukrainian air-defense remains too formidable, especially backed with live US intel, to risk high altitude sorties over Ukrainian air space.
Posted by: WJ | Jan 13 2023 18:20 utc | 39
Mike314159 @ 23
I suspect we’ll have to wait for the post-war history books to be written to find out if the energy grid strikes amounted to anything more than harassment of Ukrainian military transport and logistics
The missiles strikes were specifically to force Ukraine to pull its air defenses away from the front lines to protect the cities power grids and infrastructure, to force them to divide a limited resource. You see the results of it, a large part of the sudden accelerated advance is that Russia has been able to bring in air power, not as much as they’d like but enough to finally make progress.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 18:23 utc | 40
Bill Smith@5….my thoughts also….like what constitutes a ‘large wave’ I’d say the current Russian pin pricks are annoying to the Ukrainians but not insurmountable. They may have a few extra, men….hmm, people, with flesh wounds, but nothing that can’t be bandaged up and returned to service. If Russia fired say one thousand missile in one day, that’d be large, but the Ukrainians would see them anyway and just shoot them all down, especially now that NATO is transferring it Acme Kit to the front. Beep beep, that’s all folks….
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 13 2023 18:35 utc | 41
Sending more tanks to Ukraine is like bringing a knife to a gun fight. This is an artillery war.
Posted by: Leroy | Jan 13 2023 18:42 utc | 42
chunga@12…and it’s said Russia doesn’t do propaganda, well; theatre for the masses…..
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 13 2023 18:44 utc | 43
Campbell @| 25
“Colonel Macgregor talked about TB in the Ukrainian army”
In the videos of 404 soldiers they many times seem really out-of-it. Disease? Drugs? Are the soldiers both sides vaxed against COVID?
I know war is an outside activity but I can’t recall seeing anyone masked civilian or military in the videos?
Is COVID a non issue in 404?
Respectfully submitted.
Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 13 2023 18:49 utc | 44
Campbell @| 25
“Colonel Macgregor talked about TB in the Ukrainian army”
In the videos of 404 soldiers they many times seem really out-of-it. Disease? Drugs? Are the soldiers both sides vaxed against COVID?
I know war is an outside activity but I can’t recall seeing anyone masked civilian or military in the videos?
Is COVID a non issue in 404?
Respectfully submitted.
Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 13 2023 18:49 utc | 45
Gas pipelines are potentially hazardous installations
Explosion in Pasvalys district on a gas main pipeline
On Friday at around 5pm an explosion occurred in the Amber Grid gas pipeline in Pasvalys district. According to initial data, no people were injured. The explosion took place away from residential buildings. The fire is being extinguished by the fire brigades that immediately arrived on the scene.
The gas transmission system in this area consists of two parallel pipelines, and initial data indicate that the explosion occurred in one of them. The other pipeline was not damaged. The gas supply through the damaged pipeline was immediately interrupted, but the Pasvalys district consumers are already being supplied with gas through the adjacent pipeline.
Nemunas Biknius, CEO of the gas transmission system operator Amber Grid, said: “We regret this incident in the gas pipeline system. We immediately started to investigate the circumstances of the incident and ensure gas supply to consumers. At the moment, all our efforts and those of the responsible services are focused on containing the consequences of the fire and ensuring safety. We have immediately informed Government representatives, the Energy Distribution Operator (ESO) and Pasvalys city authorities about the situation. We will provide more details on the circumstances of the incident as we have more details.”
The gas pipeline where the fire broke out is used to supply gas to the northern part of Lithuania and to transport gas to Latvia.
Gas pipelines are potentially hazardous installations
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AB-AMBER-GRID-44154872/news/AB-Amber-Grid-Explosion-in-Pasvalys-district-on-a-gas-main-pipeline-42730657/
Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 13 2023 18:53 utc | 46
About half of the military on the Ukrainian side in the Soledar direction in the Donetsk People’s Republic are foreign mercenaries and servicemen from NATO countries, according to MP Viktor Vodolatsky.
“There are about five brigades and various special units in the soledar direction. “The total number is voiced: 20–25 thousand people,” he said. – It is also a fact that about half of them were mercenaries and NATO soldiers.
At the same time, Vodolatskyy clarified that the exact number of losses suffered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not yet available because the city has not yet been fully cleared.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28742
All the talk on MoA about NATO going full in or not, well, they are full in, better question is whether they will pull out or reinforce. As neocons can only double down not wind down, I’d say reinforce.
I saw a chart, each western EU country has about 300 Leopards, as do some of the ex-warsaw pact. They can easily pool together a 1000 tanks and still have plenty back home. Where will they get the crews? The tanks will come with crews they are just not telling their publics that just as they are not telling that there are more than ten thousand NATO troops in the present Donbas battles.
Ukraine’s best trained soldiers burned through the colossal pile of Soviet era weapons in 6 months, like hell NATO will let them burn through the expensive first line weapons the west actually had to pay for and intend to pour in. The hundreds of Bradleys are multipurpose, they also support tanks, they will also come with NATO crews. As will the very much more than promised “three” Patriots, probably a hundred Patriots.
Whatever the faults of all these systems they just have to work well enough at this point. Plus we all think they suck, the neocon politicians, Pentagon, NATO, and Ukraine think they are somewhere between less-than-suck and just dandy.
Hope I’m wrong but I think there’s a big war coming.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 18:55 utc | 47
Meanwhile, another pipeline kaputt:
https://news.sky.com/story/explosion-hits-gas-pipeline-between-lithuania-and-latvia-nearby-village-set-to-be-evacuated-12785961
Posted by: Verdant | Jan 13 2023 19:01 utc | 48
@OldHippie, Bemildred
La Chute finale (sous-titré Essai sur la décomposition de la sphère soviétique) est un ouvrage d’Emmanuel Todd publié en 1976 aux éditions Robert Laffont.
The author, then 25 years old, describes the decomposition of the communist system and the inevitable fall that awaits the Soviet Union[1]. This book is a rare example of foresight totally validated by the facts and has given its author a great authority in the analysis of social, economic and geopolitical facts..
Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 13 2023 19:05 utc | 49
“With all the destruction taking place anyway, I don’t understand why the Russians are taking months by using world war one tactics to subdue Uki’ forces rather than dropping a few 500 pound bombs from a plane, and getting it all over with in a payload drop or two?”
Posted by: Robert | Jan 13 2023 17:45 utc | 31
———-
Perhaps Russia is saving its big guns (and big bombs) for the likely open entry by the US/NATO into the conflict after the Ukie’s run out of troops due to the meat grinder operations (WW1 tactics).
Posted by: Ed | Jan 13 2023 19:06 utc | 50
Verdant @ 47
Meanwhile, another pipeline kaputt
Indeed, but who done it? Ukraine? UK? Russia? Rogue Lithuanians or Latvian Nazis to themselves? Don’t touch that dial!
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 19:06 utc | 51
Eighthman @ 20
Seems like we’re getting used to speaking of nuclear war as though we are coming to accept the likelihood of it. If it happens, it will be unlike anything anyone can even imagine.
https://folkpotpourri.com/a-time-of-unimaginable-sorrow-is-upon-us/
Posted by: Ozark Grandpa | Jan 13 2023 19:14 utc | 52
LightYearsFromHome @ 46
If NATO wants to send Polish idiots or Romanian idiots or soldier of fortune idiots, go ahead, knock yourself out. Does not and will not add up to a effective fighting force. Just more cannon fodder.
It has been many centuries since anyone gave a crap about the mighty Polish Army.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 13 2023 19:15 utc | 53
@19 / Susan:
That is actually a really good article in Emma, a feminist magazine created by Alice Schwarzer.
Even if that general clearly says that he is fully transatlantic, he makes some very pertinent remarks especially in terms of the media reporting and the importance of diplomacy.
I have to say, thumbs up for Emma for publishing this.
Posted by: Verdant | Jan 13 2023 19:19 utc | 55
good article worth reading: https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/13/us-jackals-smelling-blood-iprohibitively-huge-potential-for-profit-in-russian-arctic/
Posted by: ctiger | Jan 13 2023 19:20 utc | 56
Hope I’m wrong but I think there’s a big war coming.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 18:55 utc | 46
Look at almost every country right now. They invest billions upon billions in armed forces, weapons and bombs. They are all preparing for war, a big war.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 13 2023 19:21 utc | 57
Since depopulation of Ukraine is the only way for Russia to win, at first the task looks onerous. They need to kill or incapacitate maybe 2 million males under the age of 60. But maybe not….
The meat grinder is fed by impressment gangs who hunt for new victims to send to Bakhmut and elsewhere. They prowl bars and malls and so forth. However, the easiest targets are likely to be the most responsible and valuable males in Ukraine – such as school teachers, academia, medical personel, utility workers, the police. In other words, the very men who keep the nation alive. The unemployed can hide out, others must go to work. This sounds like some testimony coming from the line of contact as to who was drafted recently. And others with skills will simply leave the country, if they haven’t done so already.
So, it could be that Ukraine will effectively end as a nation by the loss of its most valuable people, far less than would be required by a simple reduction of male population.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 13 2023 19:21 utc | 58
Posted by: Rob Campbell | Jan 13 2023 17:24 utc | 25.
Intel Slava Z mentioned tb cropping up at Uke front a week or 2 ago.
I couldn’t find an r value, but a range of 0.24 in ND to 4+ in China.
The living conditions certainly would contribute to weaker, more susceptible immune systems, so higher end of the range.
Posted by: Mary | Jan 13 2023 19:23 utc | 59
Ed @ 49
Perhaps Russia is saving its big guns (and big bombs) for the likely open entry by the US/NATO into the conflict
Very likely, and their casualty numbers going at it as they are is proving tolerable. They have artillery and air to ground missile thermobarics and have been using them on a limited basis on the forests and fields just not on urban centers. Maybe they don’t have very many, maybe they don’t want the propaganda blowback of firebombing cities? Maybe they are human and humane? Maybe they intend to pay western Ukraine back for turning the Russian areas into the surface of the moon? And, maybe they are saving them for the NATO infantry?
Anyone seen these things, Tulips? I had read about on TG but had no real idea, I figured a big heavy towed mortar. This is real Big Bertha stuff. Ruskies have the craziest weapons. Anyway, as mentioned in the video it can launch all types of giant artillery shells including atomic, and they are firing thermobarics. So, the Russians don’t need to risk bombers to firebomb cities. Conclusion is they are holding back.
RUSSIA sent the World’s Most Powerful Mortar ‘TULIP’ to Ukraine
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 19:27 utc | 60
[..]
One of Africa’s largest airlines, Kenya Airways, has reported that it is experiencing flight disruptions due to problems related to acquiring the titanium parts and aircraft components it needs to maintain its aircraft, which were supplied from the Russian market.
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 13 2023 18:09 utc | 32
Dr. George, Many thanks for all your helpful posts.
No. worries, call India. The CEO missed Ms. Yellen’s announced change in Sanctions policy applicable to a twig shipped from RF, not just oil and gas… You bet the key word is “Transformed” as is common in international trade, at destination after unloading, product is ‘unboxed and repackaged’ and re-exported.
Sputniknews 23.11.2022
US Treasury: No Price Cap for Russian Crude ‘Substantially Transformed’ Outside of Russia
LINK
AND
Pierre de Gaulle, a banker and Grandson of late Charles de Gaulle, the former President of France, revealed in his very long interview with Agoravox, Jan. 5. 2023 – ‘the hypocrisy, we swear on sanctions’ BUT
[.]
We continue to buy from Russia…
LINK vpk.name republished.
In this crisis, Russia, in my opinion, is correctly reorienting its political, economic and financial centers to work with the East. She will be one of the arbiters of Eurasia, a beautiful continent of the future that will unite Europe and Asia, where new decision–making centers will appear. Unfortunately, Europe has deprived itself of an absolutely fantastic opportunity to work with Eurasia right now, even though it knew that Eurasia is a self-sufficient continent. Therefore, I would also like to condemn the hypocrisy of the sanctions regime: we swear, but we continue to buy Russian oil, because we cannot do without it. We continue to buy Russian gas, we continue to buy industrial metals. 60% of industrial metals on the world markets are produced in Russia.
We continue to buy uranium. The Americans also continued to supply and buy magnets for new generation nuclear reactors. Fortunately, we continue our cooperation with the scientific and intellectual community. The International Space Station continues to work thanks to this cooperation, which goes beyond the conflict, and this is what unites us, and we must definitely continue it. [.] (emphasis added)
Btw, you bet Boeing has no interruptions. Airplane parts made in Russia. Palladium. Finished nickel.
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 13 2023 19:39 utc | 61
Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 13 2023 19:21 utc | 57
Ironic.. when the fascist goals of ethnicity, language and territory achieve only the total loss of them all.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 13 2023 19:42 utc | 62
oldhippie @ 52
It has been many centuries since anyone gave a crap about the mighty Polish Army.
You got me there, point granted.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 19:42 utc | 63
Posted by: b | Jan 13 2023 17:42 utc | 28:
Thank you b for providing this link. I assume Colonel Reiser is a German soldier->NATO. There is an unmistakable deliberate effort in putting a rosy tinge on the diagnosis and prognosis for the Ukrainian side of the story. Nevertheless, it is informative and comprehensive. He wondered why fighter planes such as F-15/F-16 weren’t provided to Ukraine. He overlooks the fact that Russia is an equal (if not slightly superior) of NATO when come to aerial fire power, and that as long as Ukraine is forced to fight west of the Russia/Belarus border, such fancy attack plane has limited space and use in the war as is. In use, 100 F-15/F-16 will not last more than a week. And once started, Russia will be free to use its formidable air force on the rest of Ukraine with full understanding from the RoW.
Anyway, it seems Reiser is of the opinion that Russia has plenty of ammunition left and has the industrial capacities to replenish whatever necessary as the war drags on in 2023. Meanwhile, I clearly see his laments on the fact that Ukraine/NATO is bleeding and stretching to keep on keeping on. How deep is the western pocket?
Let them bleed!!!
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 13 2023 19:43 utc | 64
The Erich Vad interview is extremely powerful. Worth translating. He is hard hitting and pulls no punches.
Posted by: Exile | Jan 13 2023 19:45 utc | 65
Rob Campbell | Jan 13 2023 17:24 utc | 25
The Ukraine channels Resident and Legitimate have a bit on TB and other health issues. Apparently this occurred after the ‘reform’ in health system in Ukraine. I assume the reforme was to allow officials to take a larger cut of the funding.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 19:48 utc | 66
German Defense Minister, Christine Lambrecht has decided to resign, German media report quoting sources.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28762
I would have done the same.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 13 2023 19:50 utc | 67
Eighthman | Jan 13 2023 19:21 utc | 57
“depopulation of Ukraine…They need to kill or incapacitate maybe 2 million males under the age of 60. But maybe not….
…the easiest targets are likely to be the most responsible and valuable males in Ukraine – such as school teachers, academia, medical personel, utility workers, the police. In other words, the very men who keep the nation alive…
So, it could be that Ukraine will effectively end as a nation by the loss of its most valuable people, far less than would be required by a simple reduction of male population.”
Deliberately or not, the Ukronazis are carrying out the same program of eradicating the Ukrainian population’s professional and leadership strata as the original Nazis planned and partially carried out for the Poles and all the Slavs.
Yet they’re doing it toward the exact opposite goal as the original Nazis, I assume unintentionally: To generate Lebensraum for a restored Khazar homeland in its true original place.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jan 13 2023 19:58 utc | 68
Posted by: b | Jan 13 2023 17:42 utc | 28:
Thank you b for providing this link. I assume Colonel Reiser is a German soldier->NATO
Colonel Reiser is from the Austrian army.
Posted by: schmunzel | Jan 13 2023 20:07 utc | 69
@52 and @62:
Have you forgotten Pilsudski’s magnificent campaign against the Red Army in the early 1920’s?
Posted by: inspector general | Jan 13 2023 20:07 utc | 70
With all the destruction taking place anyway, I don’t understand why the Russians are taking months by using world war one tactics to subdue Uki’ forces rather than dropping a few 500 pound bombs from a plane, and getting it all over with in a payload drop or two?
Posted by: robert | Jan 13 2023 17:45 utc | 31
And why not 15 kt mini-nuke?
Aren’t 590 civilians entraped in Soledar with a few thousand of AFU a good reason not to Ar-Raqqah-ed?
Is the possibity to surrender making Rules Based Order at risk?
Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 13 2023 20:12 utc | 71
“Youngsters may not remember that Emmanuel Todd predicted the demise of the Soviet Union years before the actual event that the MSM credited to Reagan”
Yeah he based his prediction on the awful demographic stats of the Ussr (life expectancy etc etc).
Guess what : around 2002 in his “After The Empire” he made the same prediction about Murica. Again awful demographic stats are at the core of his prediction.
Whan you think that 108 000 (?!) people died of O.D. last year in the States, you might think Todd has a point.
Posted by: Nanker | Jan 13 2023 20:14 utc | 72
I struggled through three quarters of the Reiser video but his analysis is based on propaganda. He says intel is the most important aspect but than contradicts that by stating where his information comes from.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 20:27 utc | 73
@ Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 13 2023 18:09
The Boeing quest for stronger, cheaper titanium alloys:
Titanium Valley special economic zone in the Sverdlovsk region
As a (retired) A&P Mechanics on B747, I spend 1000s hours unscrewing them. 😭
Titanium fasteners are an important commodity to all of Boeing’s commercial programs. Ti 6Al-4V fasteners represent the vast majority of structural fasteners used on airframes, with annual usages in the millions.
VST2F, a new titanium fastener stock material, is capable of meeting the tensile and shear strength requirements to Ti 6Al-4V displaying higher ductility, thus lowering the risk of producing metallurgical defects during thread rolling.
The expansion of Ural Boeing Manufacturing—announced in 2016— will include a new facility based in the Titanium Valley special economic zone in the Sverdlovsk region. The facility, expected to open in 2018,
https://www.boeing.com/features/innovation-quarterly/feb2018/feature-titanium.page
Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 13 2023 20:28 utc | 74
Someone isn’t happy with how things are going on the front.
Maryna Kalynychenko 60 SEPARATE INFANTRY BRIGADE
PLEASE REPOST!!! DON’T BE INDIFFERENT!!! Because, as our relatives go to heaven, yours take their place!!!!
This is the cry of the soul.
Command of the 60th Brigade!!!! What are you doing with our sons, fathers, and brothers?
The boys burned out, and there should have been a rotation. Tell me, where is the mouth of Yalta?
Tell me, how much did it fall? In fact, the 3rd company ceased to exist. And how many of these settlements became the grave for the defenders from the 60th? How much???
Tell me??? Where is this brigade? Who saw it? On what fronts is fighting? Where did the battalion commanders of 96,97,98 battalions go? Do you even exist? Are you aware that your personnel is missing? You’ve been ripped off a bit because you’re interested in the military prosecutor’s size of non-recoverable losses in the brigade. So what did you do? And here’s what I’ll tell you. You are throwing boys to hell no artie support, no armor, no sufficient bc.
Tell me, how many dead and wounded were there on January 1, 2023? enemy drones worked and covered our guys right in the trenches, a direct hit!!!!
To all my relatives who are fighting in the 60th, I say, guys…our boys are with you…these are suicide bombers !!! They want to destroy them so that the ends are hidden in the water and so that they are nothing. That’s what they do.
This is not a team!
Those are traitors!!!!
The entire brigade suspects you of collaborating with the Katsaps. Mister boss!!!!
60 opbr can no longer hold . Investigate!!!
It shouldn’t be!!!!
Instead of keeping strongly to the law that makes warriors from recruits, pay attention to the brigade 60 opbr.
Because we, the relatives of our warriors, do not fall under the Krypak law. We will come to you, Mr. Zaluzhny, and you will see. Can you also tell us, as one “commander” said to the platoon…it was you who shot yourself then?
Something bad is going on in the 60th Independent Infantry Brigade of the AFU.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28775
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 13 2023 20:28 utc | 75
Posted by: b | Jan 13 2023 17:42 utc | 28
I’ve watched Reisner’s analysis.
It seems to me a careful attempt to highlight the positives in the Ukrainian performance over the last year and carefully omit the effect of the Russian approach on the AFU.
To hear his summary one might come away with the mistaken belief that Ukraine has taken 20% of Russia and not the other way around.
I can only conclude that his presentation has been tempered with a careful layer of ‘diplomacy’ in order not to annoy his NATO superiors.
perhaps it’s my own personal biases at play but I can’t help asking at which point does Reisner start losing objectivity given that his has by now lost friends, trainees and colleagues in this war?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 13 2023 20:29 utc | 76
@ Dr. George W Oprisko | Jan 13 2023 18:09
The Boeing quest for stronger, cheaper titanium alloys:
Titanium Valley special economic zone in the Sverdlovsk region
As a (retired) A&P Mechanics on B747, I spend 1000s hours unscrewing them. 😭
Titanium fasteners are an important commodity to all of Boeing’s commercial programs. Ti 6Al-4V fasteners represent the vast majority of structural fasteners used on airframes, with annual usages in the millions.
VST2F, a new titanium fastener stock material, is capable of meeting the tensile and shear strength requirements to Ti 6Al-4V displaying higher ductility, thus lowering the risk of producing metallurgical defects during thread rolling.
The expansion of Ural Boeing Manufacturing—announced in 2016— will include a new facility based in the Titanium Valley special economic zone in the Sverdlovsk region. The facility, expected to open in 2018,
https://www.boeing.com/features/innovation-quarterly/feb2018/feature-titanium.page
Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 13 2023 20:29 utc | 77
@schmunzel, #68:
Thank you for enlightening me on Colonel Reiser’s background.
While on the subject of SMO progressing into 2023, I am surprised that little has been made of Merkel/Borrell’s confessions of Minsk I, II being deceptions intended to fool Russia into complacency and buy time to beef up Ukrainian fighting forces to insist on NATO eastward expansion. Beefing up Ukrainian fighting capacity means making the intended fight more deadly and destructive. Merkel, and Hollende of France, deliberately lured Putin into trusting them of sincerity means they deliberately intended for the subsequent fight to be more deadly. Putin is guilty of naivete here, but Merkel/Hollende/Borrel are guilty of war crime!!! Since Macron was Hollende’s chief of staff member, he would have to come up with credible explanation to be free of guilt either.
This needs to be brought to account, sooner or later. I used to have some respect for Angela Merkel and regretted her decision to retire. Her confession completely changed my mind.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 13 2023 20:30 utc | 78
Likklemore @ 60
Hey, hold on just a minute, I thought Russia was a gas station with a military?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 20:31 utc | 79
Those annoyed about the apparent lack of haste, or talking out their asses about nukes, need to seriously consider their motivations. You can be better than that twisted shit.
Posted by: Rae | Jan 13 2023 20:35 utc | 80
Eighthman @ 57:
The targeted employees could be govt employees. They may have had to take an oath of loyalty to the state when they started employment – we are talking about a fascist govt and society after all – and they must have been exposed to huge amounts of propaganda amounting to a fake alternative history narrative about Ukraine from Day 1 of employment. They may be the very men who keep Ukraine alive but they are also the very men who create and continue the propaganda, and pass it on to others by force or threat of punishment if necessary.
Though by now I doubt if much private business still exists in Ukraine, with the economy as wrecked as it is by decades of corruption followed by war and the increased opportunity for even more looting by politicians and oligarchs that comes with it.
Posted by: Jen | Jan 13 2023 20:38 utc | 81
Posted by: WJ | Jan 13 2023 18:16 utc | 36
I definitely think you’re correct and agree with your assessment. On top of that it has been clear from the beginning that Russia has prioritized not involving civilians, especially civilian deaths which caused the operation to be carried out slowly and carefully, not like US operations in places like Mosul or Raqqa, not to mention Vietnam and North Korea and Laos, etc. Even News(p)eak Magazine came out with an article early in the SMO demonstrating that “Putin” was proceeding with a light touch and that, if he wanted, he could level every Ukrainian city and town within weeks. https://www.newsweek.com/putins-bombers-could-devastate-ukraine-hes-holding-back-heres-why-1690494
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 20:41 utc | 82
Oriental Voice | Jan 13 2023 20:30 utc | 76
I will leave the verdict open on Merkle and Hollande. Those statements are a great boost to Russia and the multi-polar world and detrimental to the Anglo west. Both had their phones tapped by the US which was made public back around the time of the Prism stuff. Merkle was one of the driving forces behind NS 2. Under Hollande, France suffered some tenable terrorist attacks until Hollande agreed to put Frances name on the coalition of the killing list in Iraq and Syria.
The outcome of their statements is that the world can see that that Russia tried for peace in Ukraine and the west wanted war. Those statements will help neutral fence sitters move to Russia’s side.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 20:41 utc | 83
@ Norwegian | Jan 13 2023 19:50 utc | 66
Germany not anymore in needs of a 🤡 Defense Minister. Lambecht can resigne.
Wir haben schon Analena Baerbock als Krieg Ministerin
Posted by: La Bastille | Jan 13 2023 20:44 utc | 84
@Exile | Jan 13 2023 19:45 utc | 64
As requested 😉
Erich Vlad Interview at Emma.de, February 12
Machine Translation
Erich Vad: What are the war aims?
Erich Vad is an ex-brigade general. From 2006 to 2013 he was Chancellor Angela Merkel’s military policy advisor. He is one of the rare voices who spoke out publicly early on against arms deliveries to Ukraine, without any political strategy or diplomatic efforts. Even now he is speaking an uncomfortable truth.
Mr. Vad, what do you think of the delivery of the 40 martens to the Ukraine that Chancellor Scholz just announced?
This is a military escalation, also in the perception of the Russians – even if the more than 40-year-old marten is not a silver bullet. We’re going down a slide. This could develop a momentum of its own that we can no longer control. Of course it was and is right to support the Ukraine and of course Putin’s attack does not comply with international law – but now the consequences must finally be considered!
And what could the consequences be?
Do you want to achieve a willingness to negotiate with the deliveries of the tanks? Do you want to reconquer Donbass or Crimea? Or do you want to defeat Russia completely? There is no realistic end state definition. And without an overall political and strategic concept, arms deliveries are pure militarism.
What does that mean?
We have a militarily operational stalemate, which we cannot solve militarily. Incidentally, this is also the opinion of the American Chief of Staff Mark Milley. He said that Ukraine’s military victory is not to be expected and that negotiations are the only possible way. Anything else is a senseless waste of human life.
General Milley caused a lot of trouble in Washington with his statement and was also heavily criticized in public.
He spoke an uncomfortable truth. A truth that, by the way, was hardly ever published in the German media. The interview with CNN’s Milley didn’t show up anywhere bigger, when he’s the chief of staff of our western powerhouse. What is going on in Ukraine is a war of attrition. And one with meanwhile almost 200,000 fallen and wounded soldiers on both sides, with 50,000 civilian dead and with millions of refugees. Milley drew a parallel to the First World War that couldn’t be more apt. During the First World War, the so-called ‘Bloodmill of Verdun’, which was conceived as a battle of attrition, led to the deaths of almost a million young French and Germans. They fell for nothing then. So the warring parties’ refusal to negotiate has led to millions of additional deaths. This strategy didn’t work militarily at the time – and it won’t work today either.
You too have been attacked for calling for negotiations.
Yes, as did the Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, General Eberhard Zorn, who, like me, warned against overestimating the Ukrainians’ regionally limited offensives in the summer months. Military experts – who know what’s going on among the secret services, what it’s like on the ground and what war really means – are largely excluded from the discourse. They don’t fit in with media opinion-forming. We are largely experiencing a media synchronization that I have never experienced in the Federal Republic. This is pure opinion making. And not on behalf of the state, as is known from totalitarian regimes, but out of pure self-empowerment.
You are being attacked across the board by the media, from BILD to FAZ and Spiegel, and with them the 500,000 people who signed the open letter to the chancellor initiated by Alice Schwarzer.
That’s the way it is. Fortunately, Alice Schwarzer has her own independent medium to be able to open this discourse at all. It probably wouldn’t have worked in the leading media. The majority of the population has been against further arms deliveries for a long time and also according to a current survey. However, none of this is reported. There is largely no longer a fair, open discourse on the Ukraine war, and I find that very disturbing. That shows me how right Helmut Schmidt was. In a conversation with Chancellor Merkel, he said: Germany is and will remain an endangered nation.
How do you assess the Foreign Minister’s policy?
Military operations must always be coupled with attempts to bring about political solutions. The one-dimensionality of current foreign policy is hard to bear. She is very heavily focused on weapons. The main task of foreign policy is and remains diplomacy, reconciliation of interests, understanding and conflict management. I miss that here. I’m glad that we finally have a foreign minister in Germany, but it’s not enough to just use war rhetoric and walk around in Kyiv or Donbass with a helmet and flak jacket. This is too little.
However, Baerbock is a member of the Greens, the former peace party.
I don’t understand the mutation of the Greens from a pacifist to a war party. I myself don’t know of any Greens who would even have done military service. For me, Anton Hofreiter is the best example of this double standard. Antje Vollmer, on the other hand, who I would count among the ‘original’ Greens, calls things by their proper name. And the fact that a single party has so much political influence that it can maneuver us into a war is very worrying.
If Chancellor Scholz had taken you over from his predecessor and you were still the Chancellor’s military adviser, what advice would you have given him in February 2022?
I would have advised him to support Ukraine militarily, but in a measured and prudent manner in order to avoid slide effects into a warring party. And I would have advised him to influence our most important political ally, the USA. Because the key to solving the war lies in Washington and Moscow. I liked the Chancellor’s course in recent months. But the Greens, FDP and the bourgeois opposition are putting so much pressure – flanked by largely unanimous media music – that the chancellor can hardly absorb it.
And what if the Leopard is also delivered?
Then the question arises again as to what should happen with the deliveries of the tanks at all. To take over the Crimea or the Donbass, the martens and leopards are not enough. In eastern Ukraine, in the Bakhmut area, the Russians are clearly advancing. They will probably have completely conquered the Donbass before long. One only has to consider the numerical superiority of the Russians over Ukraine. Russia can mobilize up to two million reservists. The West can send 100 martens and 100 leopards there, they don’t change anything in the overall military situation. And the all-important question is how to end such a conflict with a warlike nuclear power – mind you, the most powerful nuclear power in the world! – wants to survive without going into a third world war. And that’s exactly what doesn’t get into the heads of politicians and journalists here in Germany!
The argument is that Putin doesn’t want to negotiate and that he needs to be put in his place to stop him raging in Europe.
It is true that the Russians must be signaled: up to here and no further! Such a war of aggression must not set a precedent. It is therefore right that NATO is increasing its military presence in the east and that Germany is involved. But the fact that Putin does not want to negotiate is unbelievable. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians were ready for a peace agreement at the beginning of the war in late March, early April 2022. Then nothing came of it. Finally, during the war, the grain agreement was finally negotiated by the Russians and Ukrainians with the involvement of the United Nations.
Now the dying goes on.
You can continue to wear down the Russians, which means hundreds of thousands of deaths, but on both sides. And it means further destruction of Ukraine. What is left of this country? It will be leveled to the ground. Ultimately, that is no longer an option for Ukraine either. The key to solving the conflict does not lie in Kyiv, nor does it lie in Berlin, Brussels or Paris, it lies in Washington and Moscow. It’s ridiculous to say that Ukraine has to decide that.
With this interpretation, one is quickly considered a conspiracy theorist in Germany…
I myself am a convinced transatlantic. I’ll tell you honestly, if in doubt, I’d rather live under an American hegemony than under a Russian or Chinese one. This war was initially only a domestic political conflict in Ukraine. It started in 2014 between the Russian-speaking ethnic groups and the Ukrainians themselves. So it was a civil war. Now, after the invasion of Russia, it has become an interstate war between Ukraine and Russia. It is also a struggle for Ukraine’s independence and its territorial integrity. Thats all right. But it’s not the whole truth. It’s also a proxy war between the US and Russia, and it’s about very specific geopolitical interests in the Black Sea region.
Which would be?
The Black Sea region is as important to the Russians and their Black Sea Fleet as the Caribbean or the Panama region is to the United States. As important as the South China Sea and Taiwan to China. As important as Turkey’s protection zone, which they established against the Kurds in violation of international law. Against this background and for strategic reasons, the Russians cannot get out of there either. Quite apart from the fact that in a referendum in Crimea the population would certainly vote for Russia.
So how is this going to continue?
If the Russians were forced to pull out of the Black Sea region by massive Western intervention, they would certainly resort to nuclear weapons before stepping off the world stage. I find it naïve to believe that a nuclear strike by Russia would never happen. According to the motto, ‘They’re just bluffing’.
But what could be the solution?
One should simply ask the people in the region, i.e. in Donbass and Crimea, who they want to belong to. One would have to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity, with certain Western guarantees. And the Russians also need such a security guarantee. So no NATO membership for Ukraine. Since the Bucharest summit in 2008, it has been clear that this is the Russian red line.
And what do you think Germany can do?
We must dose our military support in such a way that we do not slide into a Third World War. None of those who went to war with such enthusiasm in 1914 thought afterwards that it was the right thing to do. If the goal is an independent Ukraine, one must also ask oneself what a European order that includes Russia should look like. Russia will not simply disappear from the map. We must avoid driving the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, thereby shifting the multipolar order to our disadvantage. We also need Russia as the leading power in a multinational state in order to avoid flaring up fighting and wars. And to be honest, I don’t see Ukraine becoming a member of the EU and certainly not a member of NATO. In Ukraine, as in Russia, we have high levels of corruption and rule by oligarchs. What we in Turkey – rightly – denounce in terms of the rule of law, we also have the problem in Ukraine.
What do you think, Mr. Vad, what awaits us in 2023?
A broader front for peace must be built in Washington. And this senseless activism in German politics must finally come to an end. Otherwise we wake up one morning and we’re in the middle of World War III.
Posted by: Bagradian | Jan 13 2023 20:53 utc | 85
I am glad to see that others agree with me that Reisner’s presentation was not up to the standard of his earlier ones.
– One screen shot with masses of unexplained symbols to show Russian “Propaganda bots”. Masssive blue arrows to show Ukraines (Planned in TV studio?) attacks to cut off Crimea or another towards Rostov-on-Don by the northern route? These are supposed to be among the “lessons learned” from the last year. No mention of the mental state of Ukraine with 10 mobilizations?
Back to the drawing board.
***
Unfortunately, if this is present NATO thinking, even if it imposed on him by his superiors, it means they didn’t learn anything and will shortly be sent back to army kindergardens.
*
I prefer Brian Berletic.
***
Curious about the explosion of a gas pipeline in Lithuania. Guerrilla warfare comes home to Europe or the US again? They heard “something like” planes before the explosion.
“there were unexpected sounds, it seemed as if planes were flying somewhere low” Pasvalys District Mayor says”
@Peter AU1, #81:
Fair enough. I know about the Prism project dirty laundry angles with respect to Merkel and Hollande. Circumstances do make their actions more understandable. But they were smart enough people to understand the consequences in case they succeeded (which turned to be the case, as Russia denied the Donbas Region from joining the Federation), and therefore willingly stained their own hand with blood.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 13 2023 20:57 utc | 87
Hey, hold on just a minute, I thought Russia was a gas station with a military?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 20:31 utc | 77
Thanks for your observation.
Ah, so.
Not Fair that Russia occupies 1/8 of the planet with untouched abundant resources.
And the envy of it drives the conflict !!! ….
Turned on its head.
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 13 2023 20:58 utc | 88
Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 20:41 utc | 80
Civilian casualties or lack of in the Russian behind the lines strikes are the most interesting aspect of this war, especialy when put alongside US wholesale destruction of the past thirty or so years though that goes back through US/Anglo history. Even at Ukraine/western propaganda standards, reports are perhaps one killed or a couple wounded in very major strikes.
This from some months ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/world/europe/russia-missiles-weapons-stockpile.html
“The Russian missile and drone attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were traumatic and wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been, in the context of a war that has included widespread civilian killing.
That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons and about the capacity of its forces to carry out President Vladimir V. Putin’s military designs.”
That report of 19 dead from missile strikes are I think the highest and comes from a time Russia was striking military maintenance and manufacturing.
Another report of 13 dead civilians was with a strike on an apartment building that was also being used as a barracks.
Majority of dead civilians is due to Ukraine deliberately targeting ethnic Russian civilian centers though this goes unreported in western media. Also large numbers killed in Mariupol by the Azov nazi’s.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 20:59 utc | 89
@reisner
De jure he has no nato overlord because austria still is not a nato member but neutral. Defacto is a different beast.
Rumor has it that several high ranking militaries face disciplinary problems because they publicly pointed to austrias neutrality.
Posted by: Orgel | Jan 13 2023 21:04 utc | 90
Posted by: Orgel | Jan 13 2023 21:04 utc | 87
In one of his videos Reisner speaks about trainees and colleagues he has lost in the Russia-Ukraine war, which leads me to think the Austrian army is directly involved in supporting NATO efforts in Ukraine (“De facto”).
As an aside:
He appeared emotionally affected during the video (as much as such a thing is possible for a German 😉 ).
The (English) videos he produced thereafter seemed to me to lose a lot of his original neutrality …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 13 2023 21:09 utc | 91
@Bragradian, #82:
Thanks for the Eric Vlad interview. I can literally feel Vlad’s pain, as each time I read/watch anything on our MSM, I feel powerless and desperate about the lies being spewed around poisoning more and more of my fellow citizens into being tools for Empire’s wicked deeds.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 13 2023 21:13 utc | 92
Posted by: Jen | Jan 13 2023 20:38 utc | 79
“looting by politicians and oligarchs that comes with it.”
The looting is on an industrial scale. The “Postal” service, which takes ammunition, food etc, to the front lines – returns loaded with looted goods from other civilian Ukrainians. Dog eat dog or something. But the real losers are the civilians who are ruined, shot, terrorised by their own side.
Renat Karchaa alleged materials for radiological dispersal devices were removed from the nuclear power plants.
Considering Moscow’s assertions of Kiev’s plans to blow a dam up turned out to be true, its allegations about Kiev’s dirty bombs might be as well.
Posted by: Malwen | Jan 13 2023 21:14 utc | 94
Oriental Voice | Jan 13 2023 20:57 utc | 84
The majority of deaths in Donbas occurred before Mink II. Although very low level warfare continued through Minsk II casualty rate was very low. Now since Feb 24 there are perhaps 20,000 or more of the combined Russian forces dead and an unknown number of ethnic Russian civilians from the four regions dead and maimed perhaps many more to come. Much better to try for peace first.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 21:15 utc | 95
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 20:59 utc | 86
Indeed, and what’s not spelled out, but left to be read between the lines in the NYT piece is that the “widespread civilian killing” has been carried out by Ukrainian forces, most often in the days after the SMO, against Ukrainian civilians.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 21:18 utc | 96
This is going to be a great thread, attracting numerous informative comments and insights. I’ve got to sign off now for something else to attend to. By the time I get back here in about 3 hours, I bet comments would have exceeded 300+.
Good days all :-).
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jan 13 2023 21:19 utc | 97
Arch Bungle | Jan 13 2023 21:09 utc | 88
It would be interesting to see if Austria and Galicia still have a close connection. I believe before WWI, Austria used Galicia to stir up Ukraine nationalism in the Russian empire the same as US used Ukraine nazi’s against the soviet union after WWII
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 21:22 utc | 98
Good and grim news on Rybar:
The good- the Zapo offensive against Mariupol/Melitopol seems to have been delayed by months due to the need to reinforce Bakhmut.
The grim- mobilized units are very poorly equipped, artillery units have no artillery, no MGs, grenade launchers, recoilless rifles, few heavy trucks. Wagner’s victory in the east means nothing if the regular army is in this state.
Also, the hohols announced that they have made a clone of the Shaheed suicide drone.
Posted by: catdog | Jan 13 2023 21:22 utc | 99
On mini nukes vs big bang conventional bombs.
The extraordinary success and knock-on impacts of the current conventional warfare are more than one could wish.
There is growing solidarity among eastern nations and diminishing alliance for the west.
The Russian currency has risen considerably leading to current agreements to implement a global alternative to the US$ reserve currency.
The USA is increasingly detested and resisted in the world.
The global nazi movement that has been carefully nurtured for the past 80 years is being squandered daily on the same cemetery as was the German Reich forces.
Nazis come to Ukraine to die and no need to send a death squad after them.
The land is restored in good condition to a legitimate, sane manager rather than squandered in the hands of some corrupt Ukie oligarch.
No nuclear weapon could ever have such an extraordinary military success and future utility – they are useless weapons.
So stop with the nuke prattle as it is as pointless as advocating for bow and arrow.
More drinks please and bring on act two starring General Winter, General Exodus, and those Russian fellas.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 13 2023 21:26 utc | 100