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January 12, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-11
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Comments
Patroklos | Jan 12 2023 22:18 utc | 93 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2023 22:37 utc | 101 Milites @ 38: Posted by: Jen | Jan 12 2023 22:38 utc | 102 Still – I can’t think of a better recipe, either, and have never heard anybody come up with one. Posted by: R3DP1LL3R | Jan 12 2023 22:40 utc | 103 Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 20:59 utc | 70 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 12 2023 22:44 utc | 104 Ghost Ship | Jan 12 2023 20:38 utc | 63 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 12 2023 22:45 utc | 105 Posted by: comrade simba | Jan 12 2023 22:26 utc | 96 Posted by: Antonio Ferrao | Jan 12 2023 22:46 utc | 106 Interesting that posters mentioned Stalingrad and Kursk, because the loss of so many infantry in the former, doomed the later operation; just as using BTG’s doomed the Russian advance in the North when their coup-de main failed. Artillery is king, but infantry hold ground, which is why my analysis, for what it’s worth, is that the delay in any offensive is because the Russians are resurrecting their traditional divisional and regimental structures, before any move. These structures reverse the ratio’s in a BTG, which after all was a stop-gap formalisation of an ad-hoc formation that spearheaded a tank regiment. Posted by: Milites | Jan 12 2023 22:50 utc | 107 lahire | Jan 12 2023 22:29 utc | 97 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2023 22:59 utc | 108 Interesting times. Posted by: Bad Deal Motoes On | Jan 12 2023 23:03 utc | 109 Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2023 22:59 utc | 107 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 12 2023 23:06 utc | 110 Opportknocks@58 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:07 utc | 111 IMHO the meme that UKR will run out of troops misses the point – since Kharkov counteroffensive, NATO troops or “mercenaries” have been increasingly added to the mix, and the ratio will increase as actual Ukrainian troops become scarcer and less well trained. Posted by: Simplicius | Jan 12 2023 23:11 utc | 112 Comrade Simba @ 96: Posted by: Jen | Jan 12 2023 23:12 utc | 113 comrade simba @96– Posted by: comrade simba | Jan 12 2023 22:26 utc | 96 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 12 2023 23:15 utc | 115 Vitaly Milevsky or the guy on the left with blood pouring out of his right ear was a rabid Ukrainian nationalist who wore a UPA red and black flag on his body armour. He and his two compatriots where killed by a Siberian of the O group in the Svatovo area… Milevsky belonged to the 518th battalion of the First Seperate Special Forces Brigade. Everyone was stunned and probably deaf from the frag grenade and yes it was very real….those 5.45 calibre rounds are ice picks…they would have entered the skull through the face or temple area of the Ukrainian in black vest on right and penetrated the kevlar helmet with no deformation… lodging into the wall of the dugout. A bullet put into the head like this bleeds very little.. especially entry wound. At that range there would even be powder burns. This is not Hollywood. With the deployment of the Black Sea fleet and reorg of the General staff I suspect the Tank Armies in the Russian lines will pour through the last defensive line in Kramatorsk soon…I think the Russian battlegroups in Belarus are there to dissuade the Polish and to divert resources to the defence of Kiev….but the thrust will be through Kramatorsk Posted by: Joe | Jan 12 2023 23:16 utc | 116 Milos@62 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:16 utc | 117 Oops, again@116 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:18 utc | 118 Re: Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia”. It is about the Spanish Civil War, the curtain-raiser to WWII. I read it more than 50 years ago. Of course, brilliantly written, but it is politically one-sided, favoring certain of the factions arrayed against Franco, and highly anti-communist. Because of the complicated politics, alliances and divisions among the democratic forces fighting fascist Franco, I recommend you read a more comprehensive and analytical political history along with or in addition to Orwell’s literary personal history. I don’t have a specific recommendation but there are many good histories that are not as anti-communist and anti-Soviet as Orwell’s account. Draw your own conclusions. Most of the thousands of US volunteers in the Lincoln Brigade fought alongside the Spanish communist forces, regardless of their individual politics. Posted by: mjh | Jan 12 2023 23:22 utc | 119 The Wehrmacht didnt lose the Kursk battle in a sense that it lost the ability as a coherent fighting force. The battle for Kursk was simply abandoned. The Southern pincer was actually quite successful, especially the 2nd Waffen SS Panzerkorps, breaking through two defense lines early on and forcing the Read Army to commit its reserves. On the third defensive line, the famous tank battle commenced. The Northern pincer was bogged down early on and could not reach the set out goals. Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Jan 12 2023 23:26 utc | 120 I try to follow what the MSM is saying because it has a propaganda impact on Americans if it is repeated loudly and long enough. The US is worried about Wagner PMC and is doing what it can to “neutralize” its activities. The State Department is obviously worried about the fact that Wagner PMC has shown to be very successful in Soledar and Bakmut, but what the State Department SAYS is that they are worried 1) because of Wagner actions in Libya and Central African Republic 2) human rights concerns 3) contains a large contingent of convicts. Posted by: Belle | Jan 12 2023 23:36 utc | 122 Ewiak@79 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:40 utc | 123 Belle – the US doesn’t want a piece of Wagner and they know it Posted by: me | Jan 12 2023 23:41 utc | 124 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsWQYBIoSWU Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 12 2023 23:42 utc | 125 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:07 utc | 110 Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 23:43 utc | 126 aleph__null @84 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:46 utc | 127 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2023 22:23 utc | 95 Posted by: Brother Ma | Jan 12 2023 23:47 utc | 128 >>>>: Ahole | Jan 12 2023 16:48 utc | 13
What went sideways? If you listened to so-called western military experts, you’d think that Russia intended to capture Kiev in three days and the whole of Ukraine in seven days but that was never Russia’s intention. Those were objectives assigned to the Russian Army by western military experts who don’t have a clue, but not objectives of the Russian Army itself, which means that the failure to achieve them is not a loss as claimed by those dumb western military experts.. Russia was always clear about its objectives for this SMO, liberate Donbas and de-Nazify and de-militarise Ukraine all of which are still achievable. Along the way Russia added restoring the water supply to Crimea (which it has achieved) probably because the initial phase across southern Ukraine went far better than the Russian planners thought possible. BTW, reading Operation Barbarossa and Germany’s defeat in the East by David Stahel suggests that the critical battle that ended almost all chance of Germany winning against Russia occurred during Operation Barbarossa in late July/early August with the destruction by the Russian Army of two Panzer Battle group is Army Group Centre Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 12 2023 23:51 utc | 129 grunzt@91 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:53 utc | 130 Twitter:
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1613533449905737728 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 12 2023 23:54 utc | 131 Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 12 2023 23:42 utc | 124 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 12 2023 23:55 utc | 132 @125 OK Posted by: safe | Jan 12 2023 23:58 utc | 133 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 12 2023 23:55 utc | 131 Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 13 2023 0:01 utc | 134 Perimetr @99 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 0:09 utc | 135 Posted by: Joe | Jan 12 2023 23:16 utc | 115 Posted by: Brother Ma | Jan 13 2023 0:10 utc | 136 Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 13 2023 0:01 utc | 133 Posted by: unimperator | Jan 13 2023 0:12 utc | 137 In battles in the Artemovsk direction, Wagner fighters completely destroyed the 61st brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are talking about the brigade whose fighters brazenly marched into Kherson last fall and committed their atrocities against the local population there. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 13 2023 0:12 utc | 138 Joe | Jan 12 2023 23:16 utc | 115 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 13 2023 0:20 utc | 139 Brother Ma | Jan 12 2023 23:47 utc | 127 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 0:32 utc | 140 Potoshenko reportedly agreed to rule post-Russia spaces that would report to a new a state to be formed around Moscow. Posted by: Arioch | Jan 13 2023 0:32 utc | 141 Arne Hartmann@119 and many others Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 0:35 utc | 142 Belle@121 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 0:40 utc | 143 “me”@123 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 0:55 utc | 144 I also saw the Christchurch massacre video and I saw no blood anywhere either. Unless we are willing to accept that that was a fake as well , I think it was real. Posted by: MiniMo | Jan 13 2023 0:57 utc | 145 aristodemos – sadly, I think the US would do the same thing. There is precedent in previous wars, and I could see the private prison industry jumping all over ‘leasing out’ their prisoners to the USMIC for profit and to free up space for the rest of us. The deal the US prisoners would get would not be so gracious as the ones the Wagner group is offering, and I doubt many would be able to collect on the deal if it came down to it anyway. These prisoner soldiers would be almost exclusively from the lower classes and many (most?) would not even be US citizens, illegal immigrants will do just fine. Posted by: me | Jan 13 2023 1:02 utc | 146 Can anyone shed some light on what happened to the Bushmaster vehicles the Australians supplied to Ukraine, with much cheering and publicity, I have seen a picture of one that was burnt out but I wonder about the others, as per normal much was made of the prowess of these vehicles but never any follow up of their fate. Posted by: Alan | Jan 13 2023 1:17 utc | 147 RE: comrade simba @96– Posted by: AntiSpin | Jan 13 2023 1:24 utc | 148 Posted by: morongobill | Jan 12 2023 15:43 utc | 1
… Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 13 2023 1:26 utc | 149 This is very good info about WTF is going on in Russia. Posted by: Lubomir | Jan 13 2023 1:31 utc | 150 Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 13 2023 0:01 utc | 133 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 1:35 utc | 151 Opport Knocks @125 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 1:36 utc | 152 Comrade Simba @ 96: Posted by: Jen | Jan 13 2023 1:37 utc | 153 This blog is a magnet for the single largest collection of paranoid, psychotic, homicidal maniacs ever known to mankind. Kudos b! Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 13 2023 1:39 utc | 154 Alan | Jan 13 2023 1:17 utc | 146 “Can anyone shed some light on what happened to the Bushmaster vehicles the Australians supplied to Ukraine,” Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 1:41 utc | 155
They looked more like conscripts that were pulled off the street, shown the basic operation of an AK and 3 weeks later found themselves in that hole. Posted by: Fred | Jan 13 2023 1:42 utc | 156 Of primary importance in the war between Russia and NATO/Outlaw US Empire is their respective economies. In Putin’s meeting with the government today I linked to earlier and translated at my VK, it was quite clear that Russia’s economy is doing very well. In comparison, I urge interested barflies to read the analysis provided at Shadowstats, which shows the Empire’s economy in deep trouble while its central bank–the Fed–doing the opposite of what’s needed to be done to stabilize the deep slide of what is a continuation of the Recession caused by the Bankster’s Fraud in 2007-9 and exacerbated by Covid-19 policy. And amidst all the media chatter about how the economy will be stimulated by the arms orders and relocation of European industry, look at the key indicators as reported by Shadowstats, particularly industrial production and capacity, which you’d think would be rising but are instead falling, as are interconnected indicators. If the Outlaw US Empire hopes to have any chance of defeating Russia, it must dramatically increase its industrial output by a very substantial amount: 40-60% is what’s needed. But Fed policy is aiming at nothing of the sort. All that budgeted money going to the MIC while nothing of substance will be produced shows the insane level of corruption that will cause the Empire’s downfall. As someone once said: It’s Criminal. Posted by: Muthaucker | Jan 13 2023 1:39 utc | 153 Posted by: watcher | Jan 13 2023 1:47 utc | 158 Muthaucker @153– @ aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 23:46 utc | 126 Posted by: ? | Jan 13 2023 1:48 utc | 160 Posted by: Lubomir | Jan 13 2023 1:31 utc | 149 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 1:51 utc | 161 Melaleuca@138 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 1:57 utc | 162 Jen | Jan 13 2023 1:37 utc | 152 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 1:58 utc | 163 @ Muthaucker | Jan 13 2023 1:39 utc | 153 Posted by: Laurence | Jan 13 2023 1:59 utc | 164 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 1:57 utc | 161 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 2:13 utc | 165 Of General Interest for Americans Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 2:14 utc | 166 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 2:13 utc | 164 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 13 2023 2:15 utc | 167 AFU is a spent force and Russia is very likely to finish them off in the next 6 months. So NATO has to decide to either accept defeat or go all in, first with Polish and Baltic troops into Western Ukraine to free Ukrainian forces that then move to stabilize the front in the East. At that point, it is a NATO – Russia conflict. The fact that Gerasimov now leads the SMO reflects to me RU MOD thinking that NATO very likely will intervene. Posted by: Activist Potato | Jan 13 2023 2:20 utc | 168
to 1: What’s “needed” is always to be adapted by “HIS COCK-PIANO-PLAYING” Actor UKR-PM Selen-Skis (but sorry, no snow more that winter for skiing > 0C!) – laugh or not? Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 13 2023 2:28 utc | 169 Posted by: Activist Potato | Jan 13 2023 2:20 utc | 167 Posted by: paddy | Jan 13 2023 2:37 utc | 170 spare_truth @168– @51 Muthaucker | Jan 13 2023 1:39 utc | 153 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 13 2023 2:53 utc | 173 “Johnny Cash song, written or sung when he was dying, about death, to describe our present situation.” Posted by: htyul | Jan 13 2023 2:54 utc | 174 Alan @ 146, Peter AU 1 @ 154: Posted by: Jen | Jan 13 2023 2:55 utc | 175 Re: Posted by: young | Jan 12 2023 16:03 utc | 5 Posted by: Julian | Jan 13 2023 2:57 utc | 176 I chapeau aristodemos #8. As per recent/ ongoing jabbing experience, might as well add Big Pharma to the lot, owned by the same guys. Posted by: Sektion2B | Jan 13 2023 2:58 utc | 177 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 0:55 utc | 143 Posted by: Brother Ma | Jan 13 2023 3:02 utc | 178 Re: Posted by: Peace | Jan 12 2023 17:50 utc | 28
Nope – this will NOT happen. Posted by: Julian | Jan 13 2023 3:10 utc | 179 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 13 2023 0:32 utc | 139 Posted by: Brother Ma | Jan 13 2023 3:10 utc | 180 karlof1 @170 Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 13 2023 3:18 utc | 181 “At some point, the Ukrainians will change their government. Russia has no interest in regime change. They could have wiped out the Ukraine government at any point. It is up to the Ukrainians to change their government and that will come,” Posted by: Activist Potato | Jan 13 2023 3:20 utc | 182 Re: Posted by: Jen | Jan 12 2023 23:12 utc | 112 Posted by: Julian | Jan 13 2023 3:20 utc | 183 Jen @ 152 Posted by: Objective Observer | Jan 13 2023 3:29 utc | 184 Brother Ma | Jan 13 2023 3:02 utc | 177 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 13 2023 3:33 utc | 185
And you must be incredibly brave for telling them that, whoever they are! 🙂 Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 13 2023 3:39 utc | 186 @Milites | Jan 12 2023 18:39 utc | 38 Posted by: barstool | Jan 13 2023 3:44 utc | 187 Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 13 2023 2:49 utc | 170 Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 13 2023 3:49 utc | 188 TomQCollins@134 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 3:49 utc | 189 Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Jan 12 2023 19:59 utc | 57 Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 13 2023 3:50 utc | 190 @ Posted by: ? | Jan 13 2023 1:48 utc | 159 Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jan 13 2023 3:52 utc | 191 Back to Ukraine. Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jan 13 2023 3:55 utc | 192 Julian | Jan 13 2023 3:20 utc | 182 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 13 2023 3:57 utc | 193 BroncoBilly | Jan 13 2023 3:55 utc | 191
What “we” think the “next battle” would be it’s only a speculatiion, as you say. Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 13 2023 4:09 utc | 194 Jen 112 and pretzel 124 Posted by: fanto | Jan 13 2023 4:15 utc | 195 fanto | Jan 13 2023 4:15 utc | 194
You should’nt have “dreams” so far too much so far, but it’s legal to have those, as I do. Posted by: spare_truth | Jan 13 2023 4:35 utc | 196 Tom_Q_Collins @ 160: Posted by: Jen | Jan 13 2023 4:37 utc | 197 Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 13 2023 1:36 utc | 151 Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 13 2023 4:39 utc | 198 Russia India discuss Ukraine
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/putin-modi-discuss-situation-in-ukraine-russia-india-ties/2765605 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 13 2023 4:40 utc | 199 Opport Knocks | Jan 13 2023 4:39 utc | 197 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 13 2023 4:44 utc | 200 |
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