Ukraine Open Thread 2023-11
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on January 12, 2023 at 15:18 UTC | Permalink
next page »The only way to swiftly end the war is for a catastrophic political crisis in the US that makes politicians forget the Ukraine aid.
Perhaps Russia could ignite that by attacking the dollar: a 25% discount on oil and gas for any country that sanctions the US and stops all dollar trade.
Otherwise, it's going to escalate starting with those Polish troops, then Romania, the baltics, then Germany and France, then the UK and finally the US.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jan 12 2023 15:46 utc | 2
In June of 2022, I could not have forecasted a potent Autumn 2022 Ukraine offensive. I was blindsided.
What did Russia learn from Ukraine's Autumn offensive? In 2023, Will Ukraine mount another "SUCCESSFUL" offensive against Russia?
If not, how will Russia adapt to stop Ukraine?
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Jan 12 2023 15:48 utc | 3
Recently I asked the question "If Russia is going to win, what will be the decisive situation (or condition) that convinces the West to finally stop publishing its "Ukraine is winning" propaganda?" and received one answer saying:
"whenever... the war phase has done enough and the insurgency phase is more likely to eventually bring about regime-change in the RF"
Can anyone provide an example of a potential situation (or condition or event) that will be decisive enough to turn the tide?
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Jan 12 2023 15:55 utc | 4
No negotiated peace. The USA will not allow it. And Zelensky will do what the USA wants. He now is already a billionaire.
The USA has no choice but to continue to press for the destruction of Russia. The alternative is to lose the world's reserve currency status of the United States Dollar.
So, the USA will continue to escalate to the maximum. The only resolution left is nuclear war. The Russians know this and are making their plans to deal with this unavoidable conclusion. This is why they reorganized their military command structure this week.
The conflict in Ukraine has helped the Russians get ready for the coming nuclear war. It is not only a battle front learning experience, it provides ready access to the trials of new weapon systems.
I suspect that Russia will take and secure the Donbas. Then the bear will launch just before the USA was planning to launch. This may be as soon as 3 to 4 months away.
If you live in the USA, get out while you can. Trying to get out after the nukes fall will be dangerous and very risky. Staying will be even worse.
Posted by: young | Jan 12 2023 16:03 utc | 5
reply to 5
The war can be ended by the amazing success of the UMGDS.
The Ukraine Meat Grinder Delivery Service. Russia sits around Bakhmut. Ukraine delivers battalions weekly, for Russia's convenience. Russia kills them and waits for more. The latest seems to be 'Hey, how about some old guys and local police from Chernihiv?'. Russia: "Great ! Thanks"
If negotiations are impossible, that's the outcome. While Miss Lindsey in the Senate may urge fighting 'to the last Ukrainian' as a glib remark, events are headed in that direction. Ukraine will be depopulated. Imagine walking the streets there one day and never seeing a young man who isn't disabled. The best horror you can witness won't be found on Netflix.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 12 2023 16:17 utc | 6
If you live in the USA, get out while you can. Trying to get out after the nukes fall will be dangerous and very risky.
Posted by: young | Jan 12 2023 16:03 utc | 6
The nukes will drop on Europe. In the New World Order you only drop nukes on defenseless countries for obvious reasons.
This is why the proper course of action is to immigrate from Europe into the US.
Posted by: bottle | Jan 12 2023 16:20 utc | 7
Don't look now. The larger but less obvious side of the war is economic. Then we must educate ourselves relative to the power concentrated in City of London. Lockheed-Martin, the largest and most powerful WarDefense industry on the planet, now rated by those who follow the markets, rated currently valued at the minor sum of $579 Billion, is under the financier control by none other than...London BANK$TERS. That Frankenstein Monster's valuation took a 42% jump from January through December of last year.
The take: If you are serious in the investment field and are a bit short on compassion; you will have invested heavily in the WarDefense industry.
When it comes to the investor class WAR PAYS.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 16:23 utc | 8
@ Mark Mosby | Jan 12 2023 15:55 utc | 4
FieryButMostPeaceful | Jan 12 2023 15:46 utc | 2 and aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 16:23 utc | 8 have answered your question.. this about money and economics.... take the air out of that, and they will be focused on something else closer to home.. in fact, these wars are a means of continuing on with the dominance of the us$ and frankly it is looking very tenuous at this point...
Posted by: james | Jan 12 2023 16:33 utc | 9
This is why the proper course of action is to immigrate from Europe into the US.
Posted by: bottle | Jan 12 2023 16:20 utc | 7
Let the immigrants pick through the American carcass. I'm leaving.
Posted by: Michigan Dude | Jan 12 2023 16:36 utc | 10
Changing SMO leadership from Surovikin to Gerasimov shows to me that RU MOD is preparing for a big war against NATO. AFU is a spent force and Russia is very likely to finish them off in the next 6 months. So NATO has to decide to either accept defeat or go all in, first with Polish and Baltic troops into Western Ukraine to free Ukrainian forces that then move to stabilize the front in the East. At that point, it is a NATO - Russia conflict. The fact that Gerasimov now leads the SMO reflects to me RU MOD thinking that NATO very likely will intervene.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Jan 12 2023 16:37 utc | 11
russia has two great enemies, one is uncle sam and his minions who support the ukronazis, the second is the corruption and carelessness that dwells in the military and administrative structures,
nothing moves if it is not supported by bribes.
Posted by: A.cagliostro | Jan 12 2023 16:40 utc | 12
Heartbreaking to watch Russia ruined by circumstance and poor allies. The PRC goaded RF to this war, hoping to divide NATO and knock down the U.S. As soon as it went sideways, PRC left RF out to dry. Ukraine uses Turkish drones for spotting and rockets... those drones use GLOMMAR RF GPS.... why can't RF affect GLOMARR service? This terrible, ill timed, ill advised, and primitive war, is only going to get much worse for Russia, and the world. That Russia seriously debates nukes shows how hopeless the situation is, but nukse will deliver no victory, only greater horrors. No BRICs, PRC and RF are doomed. Best bet, open up to free elections and free the people!
Posted by: Ahole | Jan 12 2023 16:48 utc | 13
Translated:
Summary by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (12.01.2023)◽️ In the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops launched artillery and army aviation strikes against AFU units in the areas of Kyslovka, Berestovoye, Kharkiv Oblast, and Novoselovskoye, Luhansk People's Republic. In addition, five enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups were destroyed near the settlements of Kyslovka, Olshana, Tabayevka, Krakhmalne and Pershotravneve, Kharkiv Region.
💥 Enemy losses in this direction amounted to more than 30 Ukrainian soldiers, two armored fighting vehicles and three pickup trucks.
◽️ In the Krasno-Limanskoe direction, as a result of active actions of Russian units combined with complex shelling of AFU formations in the areas of Stelmakhovka, Novolyubovka, Nevske of the Luhansk People's Republic, Serebryanka and Hryhorivka of the Donetsk People's Republic, over a hundred Ukrainian servicemen, four armored combat vehicles and three vehicles were destroyed during the day.
◽️ Successful offensives by Russian forces continued in the Donetsk direction.
💥 As a result of air strikes and artillery fire, the enemy suffered up to 70 Ukrainian soldiers as well as one tank, three armored fighting vehicles, and four vehicles.
◽️ In the South Donetsk direction, up to 30 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, and three vehicles were destroyed by comprehensive shelling of AFU units near Novomikhailovka, Prechistovka, and Novoselka settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.
💥 Operational and army aviation, missile forces and artillery strikes hit two ammunition depots of the AFU near Zaporizhia city and near Novoivanovka settlement in Zaporizhia region, as well as 76 artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 123 areas.
💥 In the course of the counter-battery fight at the firing positions destroyed:
- three Ukrainian Grad multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles in the areas of Kupyansk, Petropavlovka, Kharkiv region, and Ivanovka, Donetsk People's Republic;
- Two US-made M777 and M109 Paladin artillery systems in the areas of Lozovoye and Peschanoye of the Donetsk People's Republic;
- Two 2C1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers in the areas of Burlatskoye, Donetsk People's Republic, and Orekhov, Zaporizhzhia region.💥 In addition, a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery radar station was destroyed near the village of Lozovoye in the Donetsk People's Republic.
💥 Russian Air Force fighter aircraft near Nikanorivka, Donetsk People's Republic, shot down an Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian air force.
💥 The air defense forces destroyed five Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of Starobelsk, Chervonopopovka, Sofiyivka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Nikolske of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as three HIMARS and Olha MBRLS rockets were intercepted near Molochansk and Chistopolye of the Zaporizhia region.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
372(+1) aircraft,
200 helicopters,
2,873(+5) unmanned aerial vehicles,
400 surface-to-air missile systems, (Each AD Radar destroyed, no(Soviet pre '91) spares/replacements, effectively: Unclaimed Kills)
7,486(+13) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
979(+3) multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
3,813(+4) field artillery and mortar guns, and
8,019(+13) pieces of special military vehicles.
Comment:
Sparse MOD daily Summary. High tempo continues.
Broad ranging fires & strikes by RF indirect Fire Support assets, including RuAF, continue apace. Shaping the battlefield.
@8 Yes indeed. MIC companies like LMT, NOC, RTX figure largely in millions of 401k plans (Not that MOA readers own 401ks). They are a leading indicator of the way large investors see the economic future. Hope this isn't OT.
Posted by: dh | Jan 12 2023 16:57 utc | 15
So NATO has to decide to either accept defeat or go all in
Arne Hartmann | Jan 12 2023 16:37 utc | 11
There's a third and more probable option: Syria. US alone or Duda goes in but does not attack Russian regions. They only plant bases everywhere, including Odessa. The local Ukr soldiers nazis and the those trained in EU bases can do the attacking, more or less often. The 5 Russian soldiers in Ukr still stuck in Donbass after one year or the 2 in Belarus cannot prevent that or anything else from happening. No army, no vote for the future.
Posted by: rk | Jan 12 2023 17:00 utc | 16
I think Arne @ 11 (currently) has it right. Wider war is coming because the USA is desperate to survive, and won't survive if the curtain is pulled to reveal the naked emperor.
Look at what the Great Satan can do: Turn a mediocre clownish entertainer into a billionaire war criminal and global hero - if you live in Hollywood.
With AI and Chess involved, Russia will make the preemptive strike to wider war and the USA will react - stupidly.
Or, the USA will find a way to declare victory with its tail between its legs.
Posted by: gottlieb | Jan 12 2023 17:02 utc | 17
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Jan 12 2023 15:55 utc | 4
Can anyone provide an example of a potential situation (or condition or event) that will be decisive enough to turn the tide?
<---First some background nearly all of the globalization and top down control over the USD controlled governments comes from the market.. the market makers drive wars because they war means economic activity and profit to those who use the stock and financial markets for their needs and plans.
The stock markets drag in investments from small members of the governed audiences in a process that deprives small business of its needed capital and taxpayers of their savings; also the process prevents small fry from generating sufficient competition to challenge the stock market financed monopoly powered global companies. (forcing peoples savings into stock and bond markets to fund global business enterprise is globalism and it is occuring all over the world to nearly all persons with any funds at all who are governed by a government that has a market focus).
when the global paper doll stock, bond and commodity markets are destroyed nearly all war will be negotiated to an end, not until IMO because the markets want to acquire or stop competition from mineral deposits that others own or have access to and from business competition that Russia, China, Venezuela and Iran have and control.
Posted by: snake | Jan 12 2023 17:03 utc | 18
I see no challenge was made to my simple matter-of-fact statement made on the previous thread:
The problem NATO faces is it has no weapons capable of defeating Russia--not even its nukes. And Russia knows that.
What NATO does have are lots of bodies to supply to the Outlaw US Empire's Ukraine meat grinder that's providing the Merchants of Death with massive amounts of Plunder as aristodemos has shown. Most of Russia's leaders have commented on that fact, most recently Patrushev.
I see Lavrov has scheduled a major presser for the 18th "on the results of the activities of Russian diplomacy in 2022." Zakharova has given her weekly briefing, but the transcript isn't complete yet, although the video in Russian is available at the above link. Her report on the Ukraine Situation is very long as per usual practice.
Yesterday Putin held a meeting with government members, and opened with the following words:
Vladimir Putin: Dear colleagues, good afternoon!Today we are holding our first meeting with members of the Government in 2023. I once again congratulate you on this event and wish you every success.
Just recently-a couple of days ago-we met with the Prime Minister and some colleagues from the Government, discussed the results, and talked about what we will do in the coming year. Mikhail Vladimirovich [Mishustin], showed how the work in the Government is technologically structured in the most important areas, including the implementation of national projects.
What I would like to say is that we spoke at a narrow meeting, but I would like to point out [once again]. First of all, I would like to thank you for your work in 2022. Nothing that our opponent predicted for us happened. And this was done, of course, first of all thanks to the citizens of Russia, their composure, all our composure, readiness for challenges, readiness to work in difficult conditions. But last but not least, this is the result of the Government's work. Mikhail Vladimirovich managed to assemble an efficient, modern team of interested people-interested in the results of the work, [managed] to build all this activity technologically well, and this, of course, brings appropriate results.
We know – we discussed it with our colleagues from the Administration just this morning – that we have additional budget revenues, and they are not related to oil or gas revenues, but rather to non-oil and gas revenues: 200 billion rubles in additional revenues. This gives us the opportunity to solve all the tasks that we set for development and on those issues that are current, but very serious and important. This means working at the federal level, and it means working on the regional dimension.
We need, of course, in the near future to absolutely achieve [resolution] of issues related to sovereign – namely, to sovereign, independent development, despite any external pressure and threats.
I would like to emphasize that we will reliably guarantee the security and interests of the country, we will improve our defense capability, and we will certainly solve all the problems related to providing the Armed Forces and units involved in a special military operation.
At the same time, we will continue to implement large-scale social and economic programs and plans aimed at improving people's well-being, unlocking Russia's enormous potential, and expanding our international relations. We certainly have all the resources to do this. [My emphasis]
As noted above, NATO's economic war against Russia has failed, and Putin's 100% correct to credit the Russian people for that victory.
The main hindrance in getting the West to stop the meat grinder's operation is the MIC's greed as it has no morals, a trait shared by those that finance its existence. And it's clear with the R's focus on fomenting a confrontation with China as I noted on the week in review thread that the MIC will continue to be fed instead of being made to fast.
Posted by: Ahole | Jan 12 2023 16:48 utc | 13
Your miserable hopes end just in front of the meatgrinder that's working very well till the last ukrop.Big shortage of bodybags in the former ukraine.
Posted by: LuBa | Jan 12 2023 17:07 utc | 20
What did Russia learn from Ukraine's Autumn offensive? In 2023, Will Ukraine mount another "SUCCESSFUL" offensive against Russia?
If not, how will Russia adapt to stop Ukraine?
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Jan 12 2023 15:48 utc | 3
###
Define successful.
It's not that the Russians are perfect but it's difficult to see any meaningful wins for Ukraine in the last year, and the trajectory of the SMO, has for the most part, stayed constant.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 12 2023 17:10 utc | 21
interesting article from John Helmer: http://johnhelmer.net/the-ukrainain-demilitarized-zone-negotiations-start-at-dead-end/#more-70470
A few interesting tidbits:
"Following the fall of Soledar on the evening of January 10, there are signs that the Ukrainian General Staff will not continue following the orders from either Washington or Zelensky and Danilov to continue the meat-grinder defence of the eastern front, at least not until a “second line of defence” can be formed"
(...)
Addressing a longstanding debate in this bar about whether the SMO's goals are clear or not:
"What this means, said one source, is that the de-Nazification objective of February 24, 2022, is now practically impossible. “The DMZ is impossible for us because it will leave the Ukrainian nazis to keep rearming, exactly as Merkel and Hollande have said. This means there can be no demilitarized zone – there must be Ukrainian capitulation and surrender.”
And just a general thanks to b, and the barflies to keep this forum so informative. I don't post often so I'll use the opportunity to second yesterday's thread amazing note by Patroklos | Jan 11 2023 20:08 utc | 39.
Posted by: htyul | Jan 12 2023 17:13 utc | 22
Won't the USA and it's vassal states be in big trouble if Russia decides to Sanction them?
It could start with a ban on export of the Uranium needed for domestic Nuclear Electricity Stations.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-The-US-Kick-Its-Reliance-On-Russian-Uranium.html
and then there's the Titanium and other raw materials.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/06/10/the_dangers_of_us_reliance_on_russian_titanium_836740.html
Posted by: Iain | Jan 12 2023 17:17 utc | 23
@ LoveDonbass #21
Define successful.
It's not that the Russians are perfect but it's difficult to see any meaningful wins for Ukraine in the last year, and the trajectory of the SMO, has for the most part, stayed constant.
I mean successful, from a "territory" point of view like in Autumn 2022. I'm aware Russia's goal is to reduce Ukraine military. On the other hand, Ukraine buys time and Western support from territory grabs...even if Russia retreated without incurring huge manpower losses.
I asked if Ukraine would duplicate it's Autumn 2022, because I don't know the answer. I suppose Russia would adapt, but maybe I'm wrong.
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Jan 12 2023 17:21 utc | 24
I see Peskov has provided a clue about what the future holds buried within an RT report about the victory in Soledar:
“It is not the time to stop and celebrate. The main work still lies ahead of us.”
Myself and millions more would like to know what that "main work" is defined as. If it's the denazification of Ukraine, he's very much correct on that account.
@ Ramsey Glissadevil | Jan 12 2023 17:21 utc | 24
did you even read b's last post on all this?? it looks like you didn't.. he gives a great overview on all of this.. go read it again.. cheers - here is the title -
Ukrainian Defense Lines And What Happens When They Are Breached
Posted by: james | Jan 12 2023 17:33 utc | 26
@3.
Russia learned to depend more on infantry and stronger defensive lines, which is working a little better. In my view russia needs to go through donestsk and then pivot to the other two oblasts. Securing their annexations is russian victory. Sweeping through lvov is crazy dangerous or fighting through kherson again will have the same problems.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 12 2023 17:42 utc | 27
THE attack from Belarus will occur in the next day or two. Russia is about to go all in and go shock and awe. On the 17th at the UN a resolution is being presented for the general assembly for repartitions from the western countries for war-crimes and colonialism. Will pass at general assembly giving guidance on canceling western loans and Nationalization of western assets for repayment along with BRICS not holding any defaults to western institutions as not being counted toward credit issuance.
Posted by: Peace | Jan 12 2023 17:50 utc | 28
is under the financier control by none other than...London BANK$TERS.
and who are these "London Bank$ters" but Goldman Sachs International, J P Morgan, UBS Capital, MacQuarie Bank, Royal Bank Of Canada, The Bank Of Toyko Mitsubishi, Westpac Banking Corporation,
Shareholders
Name Equities %
SSgA Funds Management, Inc. 38,438,890 14.7%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 21,927,040 8.37%
Capital Research & Management Co. (World Investors) 12,378,039 4.72%
Capital Research & Management Co. 8,338,200 3.18%
TCI Fund Management Ltd. 5,696,062 2.17%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. 5,466,544 2.09%
BlackRock Fund Advisors 5,226,206 1.99%
Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC 5,095,014 1.94%
Geode Capital Management LLC 4,375,829 1.67%
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (Investment Management) 4,019,119 1.53%
State Street Global Advisors (SSGA)
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 12 2023 17:56 utc | 29
Posted by: Outraged | Jan 12 2023 16:51 utc | 14
"... manpower and military equipment in 123 areas."
Last year (spring/summer) that number was over a thousand a day. I don't think the intensity of the war decreased but the difference in how many areas are hit by artillery is very significant.
Posted by: NoName | Jan 12 2023 17:58 utc | 30
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Jan 12 2023 15:48 utc | 3
It depends on whether UA has built up yet another "new army in the west" as they did for the summer offensive, or if they've squandered it defending Bakhmut. I can't tell which happened.
Posted by: Catdog | Jan 12 2023 17:59 utc | 31
"What this means, said one source, is that the de-Nazification objective of February 24, 2022, is now practically impossible. “The DMZ is impossible for us because it will leave the Ukrainian nazis to keep rearming, exactly as Merkel and Hollande have said. This means there can be no demilitarized zone – there must be Ukrainian capitulation and surrender.”Posted by: htyul | Jan 12 2023 17:13 utc | 22
I don't know why John Helmer keeps publishing that DMZ map, when it is openly acknowledged as ineffective. Sumy and Kharkov are closest to Moscow and must be under some form of Russian control. IMHO everything east of the Dnieper should be either annexed or a DMZ.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 17:59 utc | 32
@9 It hardly affects MOA readers. Not many of us use banks. Some of us don't even use money.
Posted by: dh | Jan 12 2023 18:07 utc | 33
….. On the 17th at the UN a resolution is being presented for the general assembly for repartitions from the western countries for war-crimes and colonialism….
Wow
Posted by: Exile | Jan 12 2023 18:13 utc | 34
gottlieb @ 17
Or, the USA will find a way to declare victory with its tail between its legs.
They won't have to work too hard there is 78 ys of precedents, for myself I'd simply rehash this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXTiz8F6S5E
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 12 2023 18:20 utc | 35
Brutus: "Was Peace there?" (28)
Casca: "Yes"
Brutus: "Did he say anything?
Casca: Yes. He said "On the 17th at the UN a resolution is being presented for the general assembly for repartitions from the western countries for war-crimes and colonialism. Will pass at general assembly giving guidance on canceling western loans and Nationalization of western assets for repayment along with BRICS not holding any defaults to western institutions as not being counted toward credit issuance."
Those who understood him looked at each other and smiled. As for me, it was only gibberish.
Posted by: Casca | Jan 12 2023 18:30 utc | 36
@13
What the hell are you going on about dude? Your comment is so far removed from reality I would almost believe you are trolling for insults with that level of stoopid!
@15
I'm sure there are a few boomers here that DO have 401k's and savings accounts and other assets like fine cars, cottages and stashed PM's. After all they started their work history well before there was a lack of work ethic and the introduction of flaky companies with only greedy profits on their minds.
Posted by: safe | Jan 12 2023 18:38 utc | 37
Can someone please tell me which decisive operation caused the collapse of the Nazi regime. I seem to recall, from most history books and veterans I’ve talked, to that it was a bloody slog to the very end. I fear that whatever the Russian operational plan it will still involve a similar slog against entrenched ideologues and their coerced ‘legions’.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 12 2023 18:39 utc | 38
Conflicting views on what's the right name for this city, Artemovsk or Bakhmut.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jan 12 2023 19:05 utc | 39
a.cag @#12
Would you please flesh out your claims of overwhelming corruption in the RF. Is it anywhere near as deleterious as here in the U$$A, where even on the governmental level, all three Federal branches are massively corrupt.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:08 utc | 40
A-hole @13
Oh, go find some nice outhouse and squat there for awhile. It would be a more fitting locus for your production than this site.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:10 utc | 41
@ Milites
Stalingrad was when the tables started to turn against the Germans.
But it was not easy for the Soviets after this as the casualty ratio remained in Germany's favor all the way up till the end of the Battle of Berlin.
Even Kursk, where myth has stated that the Soviets outgunned the Germans, the Germans still gave them the what-for. Further to this myth of Soviet-warpower hitting on all-cylinders as opposed to the correct anaylsis where the Soviets simply outmanned the Germans something like 3-4:1 or more, the Germans had to send eastern divisions to meet the Ally Invasion of Sicily, giving the Soviets the upper-hand.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 12 2023 19:11 utc | 42
neo@27
Have a look at a map. Kherson needs to be approached via Zap City where the river narrows and thence southwestwards through Krivoi Rog, basically cutting Uke logistical flow to the southwest, thence into Kharson, Nicolaev and ultimately the Pearl of the Black Sea, with a heavily Russian demographic plurality, Odessa.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:24 utc | 45
Paul G. @29
Thanks for the listing of powers in City of London. You did forget to include the dominant entity, which has heavy footprints into almost of the perps you cited. It is a private bank, owned by the world's premiere crime clan. That bunch has also controlled the Bank of England and the Crown ever since 1815.
Guess who they are.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:27 utc | 46
Two things for anyone with any ideas.
1) If Russia decisively defeats the Ukrainian army then what terms will it seek? Annex Odessa? Regime change? Ban certain organizations? Change the constitution? I'd love to hear what people think.
2) The new general (whatever the roles and org charts) was just announced yesterday. When General Armageddon was announced the Kherson withdrawal happen right away, quickly and smoothly in such a way that it must have been planned before his appointment. SO.. Is there a new plan? Are we going to see the start of a winter offensive in the next 10 days?
Posted by: team10tim | Jan 12 2023 19:29 utc | 47
@45, that's what I was trying to say, just with the thought they would do it after securing donbass.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 12 2023 19:32 utc | 49
In response to
"
Guess who they are.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:27 utc | 46
"
We are wandering OT but what about Pope Frank and papal finance?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 12 2023 19:33 utc | 50
Can someone please tell me which decisive operation caused the collapse of the Nazi regime. I seem to recall, from most history books and veterans I’ve talked, to that it was a bloody slog to the very end.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 12 2023 18:39 utc | 38
***
It depends on what you're talking about on a scale from losing strategic offensive initiative to last ability to fight. Yes, the Nazis fought, even launching futile counterattacks, to the bitter end, but:
Some say Kursk, the defeat of their last really large offensive;
Some say Stalingrad, a huge defeat marking the end of their hopes of capturing the Caucasus oil fields (and thus ability to fuel their big arrow operations);
Some say their failure to take Moscow and Leningrad by the end of 1941, aiming to knock the USSR out in the first onslaught (in their view; as it was by then a people's war the USSR would've kept fighting on regardless).
When I was young one of my neighbors was German. He related that when he was 11 years old he remembered his father saying, on reading the news of Germany's declaring war on the US after the Pearl Harbor attack, "We're doomed—we're at war with the entire world now".
There is a long bloody slog between being doomed and final collapse. The wise get off before the last stop.
Posted by: Vintage Red | Jan 12 2023 19:35 utc | 51
team10tim | Jan 12 2023 19:29 utc | 47 "If Russia decisively defeats the Ukrainian army then what terms will it seek?"
Ukraine will be required to rewrite its constitution. Outlaw nazism, no nato or military allegiances and neutral. Until then Ukroids are cannon fodder.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2023 19:39 utc | 52
@ Peace | Jan 12 2023 17:50 utc | 28
On the 17th at the UN a resolution is being presented for the general assembly for repartitions from the western countries for war-crimes and colonialism. Will pass at general assembly giving guidance on canceling western loans and Nationalization of western assets for repayment along with BRICS not holding any defaults to western institutions as not being counted toward credit issuance.
Am aware of the called UNSC meeting on 17th. Source ref re your GA on 17th as described ?
@ Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 17:59 utc | 32
Same here. Though IMV the DMZs should be created on Ukraines current NorthNorthWest & Western borders ...
@ NoName | Jan 12 2023 17:58 utc | 30
Comment, and previous, is in the context, as periodically referenced, within a 'window', re the discernible relative increase in current Op 'phase' tempo since arbitrary start date ~Dec2322. Is not intended to be, in relation/comparison to, any & all prior particular daily MOD summary data (~322+ days) or earlier Op phases, prior to that date ... going back over more than 11 months ...
Setup & enter data into a full fledged relational database for that granularity of comparative analysis ? ... way too old, unmotivated & fatigued for that ... pass.
@ NemesisCalling | Jan 12 2023 19:11 utc | 42
Au contraire. The Nazi's lost zee War, from the moment they invaded the USSR on 22nd June '41, though by late October '41, the outcome, in retrospect, had been decided regardless. The rest is mostly fabricated exculpatory Nazi myths & supposed 'turning points'. In any case, now, just as for then: "ALL Nazi's must Die!." - (RuAF Engels). Wouldn't you agree ?
@ team10tim | Jan 12 2023 19:29 utc | 47
1. Yes. 2. *Shrug*.
1) If Russia decisively defeats the Ukrainian army then what terms will it seek? Annex Odessa? Regime change? Ban certain organizations? Change the constitution? I'd love to hear what people think.
Others may beg to differ, but I don't see Ukraine coming out of this as a sovereign nation. Much more likely, IMHO, that it will be incorporated into the RF. Too much risk in allowing independence. For example, an independent Ukraine may agree initially to remain neutral and stay within Russia's orbit, but do you really trust them? If so, why? Much better to just stamp out the idea of Ukraine as a nation and a people.
Posted by: R3DP1LL3R | Jan 12 2023 19:46 utc | 54
The only way to swiftly end the war is for a catastrophic political crisis in the US that makes politicians forget the Ukraine aid.Perhaps Russia could ignite that by attacking the dollar: a 25% discount on oil and gas for any country that sanctions the US and stops all dollar trade.
Otherwise, it's going to escalate starting with those Polish troops, then Romania, the baltics, then Germany and France, then the UK and finally the US.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jan 12 2023 15:46 utc | 2
I disagree. Russia could win the war outright in a handful of ways. I don't think that any distractions or face saving measures for the west are required for the US to throw in the towel.
But, there are plenty of options. There are a huge number of scandals waiting in the wings that Russian intelligence could highlight, but in the present circumstances it would play out like Russiagate 2.0 and the actual scandal would take a backseat to Russian meddling.
Similarly, the sky in the west has grown dark with all of the chickens coming home to roost. Inflation, debt, crime, immigration, trust in US institutions, political polarization, etc. etc. And again, Russia is better off letting those problems fester and fomenting discontent while Russia pursues its own interests.
Sun Tsu knew what he was talking about when he said never interfere when you enemy is destroying himself.
Posted by: team10tim | Jan 12 2023 19:48 utc | 55
Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 17:59 utc | 32
The "Helmer" DMZ map, gives all the main agricultural areas sea access via Odessa, from within the DMZone. The "divisions" run along the lines of the Oblasts in the NW and territory held by Russia in the SE. (the white part)
Basically it is a "want" list made up by (at a guess) Blackrock and Monsanto, where the DMZ zone would be an Ukrainian/US protectorate rather than a protective zone for the Russians.
There would be no advantage to the Russians to even accept the base line. In fact, it is similar to the Ukrainian idea of THEM being responsible for security at Zaporihzia Nuclear plant giving them access along the southern (eastern) part of the river as well.
=> Zele-delusions.
The collapse of the Wehrmacht came with Operation Bagration from June to August 1944. The Red Army encircled the Heeresgruppe Mitte in Belarus and ended the Wehrmacht's capability to effectively withstand the Red Army. Operation Bagration was the biggest defeat of any German army in history. After that, Belarus was secured and the way open to Poland and East Prussia right up to Berlin. My grandfather, who lived through the entire Barbarossa campaign up to Moscow and back, was taken POW at Mogilev and his 267. Division ceased to exist. He came back to Germany in 1950.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Jan 12 2023 19:59 utc | 57
Paul G. @29Thanks for the listing of powers in City of London. You did forget to include the dominant entity, which has heavy footprints into almost of the perps you cited. It is a private bank, owned by the world's premiere crime clan. That bunch has also controlled the Bank of England and the Crown ever since 1815.
Guess who they are.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:27 utc | 46
Yesterday's bogeymen, do I win a prize? The ancient family business are just one of the 285 mostly international banks with offices in City of London Square Mile.
The Bank of England is independent and government owned since 1946. The Crown is a profitable tourist attraction that supposedly does use them for wealth management services.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 20:12 utc | 58
Posted by: morongobill | Jan 12 2023 15:43 utc | 1
Two events really got to me yesterday.
1) watching the trench fight video. *war really is Hell, not a video game.
Yeah, the UA soldiers were really confused IMO and didn't see their death coming. Wrong decision... War is sad, life and death close to each other.
Posted by: Tapio | Jan 12 2023 20:21 utc | 59
@Tapio - now is not the time to get upset over the violent deaths of Nazis. Buck up, son.
Posted by: FUkraine | Jan 12 2023 20:26 utc | 60
@Tapio #59
Orwell's book "Homage to Catalonia" is interesting- trench warfare described in detail.
Excrement and filth, can never stay warm, boredom, panic, rare bathing if at all, and
every man suffering from lice crawling over his testicles. And the hatred is fanned by
those who do not fight.
Posted by: Billb | Jan 12 2023 20:36 utc | 61
Just listened to Duran with Larry Johnson, and they suggested that affair of hidden top secret documents in Biden private offices are meant as an potential setup where Jo Biden will be brought down and personally accused for all the fillings happening in Ukraine. This might be the US domestic response to loss of Ukraine.could it be that the three letter services and the Pentagon are teaming up against the “Big Guy”?
Posted by: Milos | Jan 12 2023 20:38 utc | 62
>>>>: Ramsey Glissadevil | Jan 12 2023 15:48 utc | 3
In June of 2022, I could not have forecasted a potent Autumn 2022 Ukraine offensive. I was blindsided.
Potent offensive? It was more that because of the limited size of the forces assigned to the SMO, the Russian defences in Kharkov were impotent, about 2,000 military police and non-combat troops. American intelligence identified this weakness and told the Ukrainians who launch an offensive with between 10,000 and 20,000. Have achieved more than a three to one advantage, the Russians did have a chance of holding the territory and conducted a fighting withdrawal, in the process losing about 200 men but the Ukrainians out ran their artillery cover and paid the cost losing somewhere between 2,000 and 5,000 men. The Russians withdrew to the their new defensive line and just about every attack on that has been repulsed with losses to the Ukrainians. Since they lost momentum back on October 2nd, Ukraine has been unable to advance just taking tenuous positions in the so-called Grey Zone.
As for Kherson, if the Ukrainian Army was even moderately capable it should have been able to encircle Russian forces when the withdrew across the Dnieper and destroyed them. They didn't so that tells us that the Ukrainian Army is only moderately capable, while the Russian Army breaking contact with the enemy and withdrawing across the Dnieper tells us that the Russian Army is more capable than the Ukrainian Army.
What should the world have learnt from Ukraine's Autumn offensive? That the Russian Army is more capable than the Ukrainian Army.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 12 2023 20:38 utc | 63
Found the below on Hal Turner's site halturnerradioshow.com
Shake-up? — dewill 2023-01-11 19:37
Notice that Surovikin’s responsibilities were not reassigned to a subordinate (promotion) or even a peer (lateral) officer; his responsibilities were assigned to a superior officer in General Gerasimov. Gerasimov is Chief of the General Staff and second only to Defense Minister Shoigu. Look at it this way, Russian command of the European Theater was just given to our equivalent of a General Patton or General MacArthur. Surovikin is Gerasimov’s deputy and still in command of the aerospace forces in Theater.
With General Gerasimov taking command in the European Theater we are heading for a SHTF event between Russia and NATO very soon.
Posted by: young | Jan 12 2023 20:44 utc | 64
Ukraine is still very very strong.
They are motivated to fight and have support from the Collective West.
Russia is unable to inflict pain to US or EU.
This war is not going to finish soon.
Posted by: sapun | Jan 12 2023 20:48 utc | 65
@ Arne Hartmann | Jan 12 2023 19:59 utc | 57
Op Bagration was launched precisely three years to the day, after the horse had already bolted, after the war was already lost for zee Nazi's & the Wehrmacht ...
Op Barbarossa was launched without Heer Military Intelligence (Foreign Armies East(Fremde Heere Ost(FHO))) even knowing the Red Army Order of Battle, most deployments, without knowledge of it's available reserves, nor it's actual true industrial nor mobilization capacity, let alone it's actual up to date armaments/projects. As for Germanys critical myriad fundamental incapacities to sustain such an endeavor from day one ...
Rather reminiscent of US/NATO/EU re RF from Georgia(Ukraine) 2008 through to Banderastan 2014 to Feb22 ...
@ Ghost Ship | Jan 12 2023 20:38 utc | 63
Indeed. By an order of magnitude.
Posted by: Ahole | Jan 12 2023 16:48 utc | 13
Ahole ,I wasn’t aware that the Bayraktar drones used by the Ukraine , used Glonass. That may be so, but it doesn’t make sense that the Russians allowed Glonass to keep communicating with such already -made drones after Feb 24 2022. All Big Power weapon -manufacturers have remote kill- switches which can turn the weapon off . Only way I see them working is if the Russians didn’t keep ids of all Glonass gps-kits sold to Turkey or some intermediary. It may have happened if we were to believe in Russian incompetence and/or corruption in administration and /or the military. Other way , is if Turkey/ Ukrainiane swapped - out Russian gps -kits after the 24 Feb 2022.
In any case, we are told that Russia now trounces the Bayraktars easily via electronic warfare or other means. If so, then Russia doesn’t care that the Bayraktars use Glonass.
In general: I also found the video of the Foxhole shooting sad and disturbing . Some people have said that the Ukrainian soldiers were confused ;thinking that the Russian was an Ukrainian like them . It was said that the Ukrainians were saying “We are one of you” . Could they have said that because they were in fact Russian-speaking (and also Russophile )Ukrainian hesitant conscripts and correctly recognised the Russian as a Russian and thought they were safe? However, why hold onto the guns ? Were they confused from recent explosions etc?
Others have said that the Russian “had an accent”. Could the Russian/Wagnerite have been a Russian from the -stans or Siberian tribes, and thus not both easily and quickly understood by the shocked Ukrainians? All leading to lost time and extra risk for the Russian? In any case, the Russian acted with honour and compassion .One can only be humanist so far , and any extra risk only means your own family may do all the crying. Kudos to the Russian , and may the Ukrainians rest in piece. Hang the Zelensky.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Jan 12 2023 20:54 utc | 67
@58 OK
This is bewildering that you have waxed poetically and intelligently on many topics and yet you show a serious blindspot when it comes to the REAL holders and movers of Power in this western world. The City of London including the Bank of England is STILL owned by the trillionaire Rothschilds cartel. Their cabal of the Rockefellers, DuPonts, Kochs, Warbergs at al run everything cuz they own everything and most importantly, everyone! Read up bro.
Posted by: safe | Jan 12 2023 20:56 utc | 68
Posted by: young | Jan 12 2023 20:44 utc | 64
The Hal Turner show claimed there are like gazillion ncov deaths per day in China at the beginning of 2020.
Can't take anything from that source seriously.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 12 2023 20:58 utc | 69
@Tapio - now is not the time to get upset over the violent deaths of Nazis. Buck up, son.Posted by: FUkraine | Jan 12 2023 20:26 utc | 60
Assuming the video is real and not from field exercises, I doubt they were Nazis. More likely inadequately trained conscripts. None of the soldiers on the ground have their hands anywhere near the trigger and they appear to be simply hiding.
As others have suggested, this is probably from training exercises. The soldier with the body cam appears to shoot all three in head or upper body at close range, yet there is no blood. His face should have been blown off.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 20:59 utc | 70
With General Gerasimov taking command in the European Theater we are heading for a SHTF event between Russia and NATO very soon.
I am inclined to agree with this.
Now I am not at all sure about any of what follows, but I think there may be connections or relevance and I leave it to others to fill in the holes or draw the lines.
1. Before the SMO started Gerasimov was the public figure we all new of as head of Russian military. Then he sort of disappeared
2. There were rumours of Gerasimov being killed very early on, then he did reappear, but was never prominent. Is it possible he was indeed seriously injured and has only now returned.
3. The UA guy Zaluhy, said he was trained under Gerasimov and seemed to talk of him as brilliant
4. Could Gerasimov be the man to negotiate with Zaluhy ie to bring an end to the conflict
5. It seems unlikely that Surovkin will be in bad odour since he appears recently to have been very successful (other than the disaster in the training camp)
5. The movement of Russian ships from port suggests a new direction- either an attack, a feint of fear of NATO, any of which suggests a new phase in the war.
So this is just a string of ideas which may or may not be relevant.
Posted by: watcher | Jan 12 2023 21:00 utc | 71
@67 Brother Ma
Very interesting conjecture which would IMO make this scene even more sad and tragic since the first casualty of war is real communication. It isn't really but if people could be allowed to just talk it out first we may have no had so many tragic wars.
Posted by: safe | Jan 12 2023 21:03 utc | 72
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 12 2023 20:38 utc | 63
There is no doubt in my mind that on available evidence , the retreat from Kherson was a strategic or political decision ie as a show of goodwill to Kiev for talks. Ie Sullivan Talks. God knows what talks though, as I wouldn’t be talking in earnest at all. Yet, I dont know the full constraints on the Russians.
There was no risk of Russian capture at Kherson; we were told the dam had been appropriately emptied to the right height, the land that was potentially to be flooded was all lower than the Russians on the Right Bank , Ukrainians were being slaughtered in unceasing attacks and could be seen for tens of miles over the northern Kherson steppes and Russian defences on the Left Bank were all away from those bottomlands. Nope, the retreat was for Kiev to accept the new borders of Russia and it was a sop to make Kiev look as if they had won something. Once again ,The West fooled Russia or it was non-agreement capable . Well Russia supposedly has contingencies so no doubt Russia just went to Plan B.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Jan 12 2023 21:09 utc | 73
billb@61:
Thanks for Orwell book, I will read it. All, the book is available to read free at
http://www.george-orwell.org/Homage_to_Catalonia/
Posted by: morongobill | Jan 12 2023 21:10 utc | 74
Posted by: watcher | Jan 12 2023 21:00 utc | 71
Here was the official statement about it. Surovikin apparently is (originally) the "deputy commander" responsible for air force, then you have the one responsible for ground units. The top commander of smo is Gerasimov. Surovikin will be in charge of all the aerospace force operations within the SMO.
Only guessing here too, but practically it might mean more involvement from strategic bombing in the SMO. It all depends when/if they smoke out air defense radars and launchers in a sufficient manner. Or it might mean increased focus in interdicting air defense or other things in western Ukraine. Or it might mean nothing. We'll see.
"On 11 January 2023, Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu assigns new leadership of special military operation
◽️ Chief of General Staff General of the Army Valery Gerasimov has been assigned the commander of the Joint Group of Forces.
◽️ The deputy commanders are: Commander-in-Chief of Aerospace Forces General of the Army Sergei Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces General of the Army Oleg Salyukov, as well as Deputy Chief of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Colonel General Aleksey Kim.
◽️ The increase in the level of leadership of the special military operation is related to the amplified range of tasks, the necessity of closer cooperation between services and branches of the Armed Forces, as well as of improving the quality of all types of maintenance and efficiency of commanding the groups of forces."
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 12 2023 21:12 utc | 75
Reply to 47
One thing I wonder about. There are reports that Ukr. is pulling police from Chernihiv to push into the meat grinder. If they keep this sort of insanity up, I would think various oblasts will be nearly forced into becoming protectorates of Poland or Hungary or Romania once Ukraine is ruined.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 12 2023 21:13 utc | 76
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 12 2023 17:06 utc | 19
"Putin: 'we will certainly solve all the problems related to providing the Armed Forces and units involved in a special military operation.'"
Apropos of that, Martyanov points out that the army just received a new batch of T90M tanks...
My, My, My......Western press-whores are up in arms this morning. They reacted to this (in Russian) news from Ria about UVZ (legendary Ural Vagon Zavod) delivering yet another batch of T-90M Proryv tanks to Russian Army and they immediately went out on the BS spree with speculating:
Russia’s T-90M Proryv: Will Putin Send His New Tank to Fight in Ukraine?
This click-bait BS was spread by the 1945.com portal which specializes in a palliative therapy for some America's military exceptionalists and basement military porn masturbators from the Top Gun: Maverick community, who have been shown how adults fight real wars, and now they experience a serious butt-hurt. As most from US media, those people have a serious case of amnesia, because, in accordance to these very same US media, glorious VSU already captured this very T-90M last year:
Don’t Tell Putin: Ukraine Captured Russia’s Elite T-90M Tank
This kinda negates the question of if Putin will send these tanks to 404, doesn't it, because evidently, they are already there. But then again, these are Western "military analysis" resources and they need money too, so, they sell BS, and it sells. But, in the end, why such an attention to this tank.
Well, T-90M IS a deep modification of a venerable, still good, though, T-90A and it even looks differently, carrying even some elements of a dynamic armor Afghanit which is also used by T-14 Armata.
[Shows pics of the new tank]
As you can see--it is a classic Russian tank, low profile, sleek and lighter than any modern Western counterpart. Whilst all kinds of military porn fanboys discuss this tank's newest multipurpose sight and other things of this nature, apart from purely physical improvements, it is the Combat Management System "Kalina" which is most important in it.
Being Combat Management System "Kalina" unifies all operations of this tank, including latest ballistic computer and target acquisition and firing solution contour (laser-range finder, FLIR, on-board sensors, including detection of the "incoming", etc.), it is this feature which really matters--taken from Russian sources:
блок боевой информационно-управляющей системы тактического звена,
программно-технический комплекс тактического взаимодействия танкового/мотострелкового батальонаTranslation: Block of the Combat Informational Control System of the Tactical Level and Software-Hardware Complex of Tactical Interaction of the Tank/Motor-rifle Battalion.
A-ha, that's warmer. In other words--T-90M is a fully netcentric warfare tank and each of these tanks in battalion can run this whole battalion's combat tasks, which is 31 tank in tank battalion, or a truck load of APCs in a motor-rifle one. That is why so much attention to this rather routine news (Russian military factories work 24/7/365) from Western punditry, who, by the virtue of spewing BS on this news, betray own case of being sore losers, because, in accordance to their "sources", Russians are backward people who cannibalize washing machines for microchips and do not know what indoor plumbing is--yes, this is what majority of population of 404 thinks, and so do people from all other Western propaganda outhouses.
- RSH
Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | Jan 12 2023 21:14 utc | 77
I suspect the end of this will be when Russia takes Odessa and the entire Black Sea port access. Zel. is likely killed by his own and they strike a surrender deal.
Posted by: DocSavage | Jan 12 2023 21:16 utc | 78
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ @Rybar about the failed AFU Counterattack on #Soledar⚡️At @rt_russian they write that combined units of the 46th and 77th AFU Airmobile Brigades from Paraskovievka tried unsuccessfully to counterattack the Russian positions and break the encirclement ring in the vicinity of #Soledar.
Enemy detachments on French VAB armored personnel carriers and British Wolfhound armored personnel carriers tried to strike at the advancing orders of Russian troops. However, they were detected and destroyed by Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft during target designation from the ground.
The Ukrainian formations suffered about 200 casualties during the sortie, with the survivors fleeing their positions. The airmobile forces acted without fire support due to the withdrawal of most of the enemy's artillery systems near #Soledar.
♦️ Why are the AFU conducting premeditated sorties that are doomed to fail?
#Soledar is for the AFU an important node in the still existing Chasov Yar - #Bakhmut - #Soledar - #Seversk defence line. Its fall puts a significant contingent around SSeversk at risk, as the defence is complicated by its location: the settlement is in the lowlands.
In the event of the final loss of #Soledar and nearby villages - #Blagodatnoye, #Razdolovka, #Vyemka and #Veseloye - Ukrainian formations will have to abandon #Seversk and other strongholds due to the threat of possible encirclement.
Together with the liberation of the Bakhmut agglomeration, the potential loss of #Seversk will cause tangible damage to the image of the Ukrainian army, whose image has been built over the past six months.
♦️The attempt to counterattack without regard to losses is a desire to rectify the disastrous position of the AFU in this area. And it is not at all impossible that such actions will be repeated until the final mop-up of #Soledar by Russian troops.
A forward control post of the consolidated grouping of AFU troops has now been set up in #Minkovka. The 500 members of the Territorial Defence Forces from the #Sumy Region are expected to arrive in the area of combat operations and are planned to be used to storm the Russian positions.
However, the effectiveness of such actions is highly questionable, given the RF Armed Forces' fire control over the main routes in the area and the Ukrainian formations' lack of tactical commanders: a significant number have been killed or taken prisoner, while the rest have fled to #Seversk.
And the encirclement of #Bakhmut from the north, south and east leaves the AFU with less and less chance and time to rectify the situation.
https://t.me/sitreports/3259
Posted by: Down South | Jan 12 2023 21:17 utc | 79
For now global nuclear war does not threaten us. The disciples asked Jesus: "Master, but when shall these things be? and what sign will there be when these things shall begin to come to pass?" (Luke 21:7, JUB) He answered: "You will hear of wars and rumors of wars. Don’t be alarmed. These things must happen, but it is not yet the fulfillment [of the sign]." (Matthew 24:6) The global nuclear war, (this will be the fulfillment of the sign of Jesus), will begin as a result of ethnic conflict. (Matthew 24:7)
In the Book of Daniel we read: "At the appointed time [the king of the north] will return back [and that, in this context, also means military actions, a major crisis, plus the break-up of the EU and NATO. Many countries of the former Eastern block will return to a military alliance with Russia], and come into the south [this will be the beginning of the nuclear war], but won't be as before, and as later [the present military actions will not lead to a global nuclear war. This will only happen after the return of the king of the north], then the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the distant West] will come against him, and (he) will break down [mentally], and will go back." (11:29, 30a) This will be a mutual slaughter. This time it will be a world war not only by name. Peace will be taken from the earth and the sword of great power will be used. (Revelation 6:4) Jesus characterized it in this way: "φοβητρα [frightening things] τε [both] και [and] σημεια [extraordinary things (related to unusual phenomena)] απ [from] ουρανου [sky] μεγαλα [powerful] εσται [shall there be]."
For this reason, there will be significant tremors along the length and breadth of the regions [of strategic importance] and famines, and pestilences (decaying, unburied bodies will turn into weapons of mass destruction).
Some ancient manuscripts contain the words: "και χειμωνες" - "and frosts".
The Aramaic Peshitta: "וסתוא רורבא נהוון" - "and will be great frosts". (Luke 21:11) We call this today "nuclear winter".
In Mark 13:8 there are also words of Jesus: "και ταραχαι" - "and disorders" (lack of public order).
The Aramaic Peshitta: "ושגושיא" - "and confusion" (on the state of public order). This extremely detailed sign fits only one war. It won't be Armageddon. "All these are only the beginning of the labor pains." (Matthew 24:8, New Catholic Bible)
Posted by: Ewiak Ryszard | Jan 12 2023 21:18 utc | 80
watcher | Jan 12 2023 21:00 utc | 71
5. About the submarines and the "landing" ship. I reckon the ship is for quick "reloading" of the missiles on the submarines while at sea. Obviating the need to return to a port ie. it suggests the planned use of sevearl even larger multiple missile attacks in the near future.
4. Surovkin will lead the central forces, so continuing as he is. Probably all planned well in advance.
Which leads me to think that there are three potential advances that "could" happen. (One for each general). Choosing the one which the Ukrainians have the most difficulty in countering. It depends which one that shows the most promise. A system the Russians were using during earlier parts of the SMO.
3. Gerasimov takes overall command when it is the best moment to do so. Each one is used to his best ability. Surovkin was known as a "on the ground" expert fighter used to take hard decisions. I assume that Gerasimov will be better at overall strategy and means/aims.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 20:59 utc | 70
Posted by: safe | Jan 12 2023 21:03 utc | 72
Opportunity, I also thought it was a fake to start with , but I learned long ago that fatal shots stop the heart immediately and this no great amount of blood is seen from the wounds. I also saw the Christchurch massacre video and I saw no blood anywhere either. Unless we are willing to accept that that was a fake as well , I think it was real. Supposedly the Young ukro has social media photos that were found and he has been uncontactable by family since mid or late December.
We also know his name ,Vitaly Milevsky, which to me sounds “Russian” ,which gives some credence to my They were Hesitant Poorly -Trained Donbas Ukrainian Conscripts Theory . I agree, they didn’t appear to be Nazis to me.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Jan 12 2023 21:24 utc | 82
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 12 2023 20:59 utc | 70
Southfront posted the name of one of the guys along with what and where it happened and there are links to his social media accounts in the comments.
Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 12 2023 21:28 utc | 83
Gerasimov taking charge simply reflects that the RU MOD has expanded the scope of the SMO. If you expect a big war with NATO, you make Gerasimov the overall commander, because now the entire RU military is fighting. It isnt a SMO with just some elements of the RU military anymore. If the entire US military was fighting a joined effort against an external foe, Milley would be in charge, not Charles Q. Brown, Jr., the Cief of Staff of the US airforce, who is comparable to Surovikin. I hope that Western militaries take notice of that and what it means. I hope they stop any plans they might have that made the RU MOd to give Gerasimov overall command.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Jan 12 2023 21:40 utc | 84
Don't look now. The larger but less obvious side of the war is economic...
When it comes to the investor class WAR PAYS.
@ aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 16:23 utc | 8
One of Martyanov's favorite axioms is that, when it comes to warfare:
amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics
T'was ever thus, though, on all counts. Somewhere along the line the horrors of warfare
attained a historical gloss of just war, where non-combatants are not involved, somehow.
That's a complete crock, a familiar, comfortable fairy tale with Christian soldiers going
onward upholding the upright, and may God help the more virtuous.
I mean: please! War has always been about armies to kill the people. What the heck does
Brazil need an army for, anyhow -- to defend against Argentina? The US American style
of warfare has always explicitly targeted enemy civilians, from the time General Washington
ordered indigenous cleansing by means of burning down all the cornfields.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 12 2023 21:43 utc | 85
"Russian forces have taken Artemovsk (Bakhmut) into operational encirclement," said Igor Kimakovsky, adviser to the DPR's acting head.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28639
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 12 2023 21:46 utc | 86
What did Russia learn from Ukraine's Autumn offensive? In 2023, Will Ukraine mount another "SUCCESSFUL" offensive against Russia?
If not, how will Russia adapt to stop Ukraine?
Next time when Gerhardt Schroeder shows up with a peace plan, and asks Russia to shut down the war as a gesture of good will, he'll be ignored.
No, Ukraine no longer has the ability to launch a successful offensive.
Posted by: JackG | Jan 12 2023 22:05 utc | 88
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 12 2023 21:46 utc | 85
Just a bit of guessing here, but what might have happened is Zelly tried to launch their counter attack on the southern/SW outskirts of Soledar by stripping part of the defense of northern Bakhmut. This could have enabled move forward on that area by Russians.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 12 2023 22:08 utc | 89
Can anyone provide an example of a potential situation (or condition or event) that will be decisive enough to turn the tide?
The remaining Ukraine military finally gets tired of getting slaughtered so Zelensky and the crew can loot aid money to Cyprus, overthrow the government and sue for peace. Pandora papers.
Posted by: JackG | Jan 12 2023 22:08 utc | 90
Eighthman #76
One thing I wonder about. There are reports that Ukr. is pulling police from Chernihiv to push into the meat grinder. If they keep this sort of insanity up, I would think various oblasts will be nearly forced into becoming protectorates of Poland or Hungary or Romania once Ukraine is ruined.
The police are the nazi enforcer at the community level. These are the people that issue the summonses to destroy all Ukrainian males. They are primarily Banderite ideologues and along with SBU offices in regional centres are increasingly being destroyed by Russian missile assaults. These missile assaults are likely to become intensive and continuous as long as denazification is popular with Russia.
So I guess the Uke government with a chronic shortage of well trained soldiers will need every able bodied ideologue armed and near the front that keeps on walking forward. Way to go.
No, they wont be protectorates of anyone but themselves. They are patriotic Ukrainian people and there is no way Poland etc will invade and remain for very long.
The war with Russia will have eradicated the thugs that stole their youth for the meat grinder and penalise their daily lives. Russia is more than capable of assisting these people to re-establish civil society free from nazi thuggery.
The minority nazi klan that couped Ukraine is being destroyed. Zelensky with his absolute fanaticism to kill will ensure that. This may enable peace loving Ukrainians (%70 as I recall at the the last election) to retake control of their civil institutions. It will take time...
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 12 2023 22:11 utc | 91
R3DP1LL3R | Jan 12 2023 19:46 utc | 54
I don't see Ukraine coming out of this as a sovereign nation. Much more likely, IMHO, that it will be incorporated into the RF. Too much risk in allowing independence.
I agree in so far as this solution has some external stability. However... there will be uprisings in western 404 against the self-imposed government of the ugly Ruskies. The West will join in with the clamour and demanding of independence for the region - and if granted, you will be back to square one, just as you described. If not, the accusations and belligerence will never stop - you have just proven you are the evil bogeyman they said you were, and they will never stop inventing further strategies to hurt you.
Still - I can't think of a better recipe, either, and have never heard anybody come up with one.
Posted by: grunzt | Jan 12 2023 22:12 utc | 92
Russian forces have taken Artyomovsk-Bakhmut, Donetsk Republic into operational encirclement - Advisor to Head of Republic Kimakovsky.
IntelRepublic 21:18
Posted by: António Ferrão | Jan 12 2023 22:15 utc | 93
@milites &
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 12 2023 19:11 utc | 42
Timeline of turning points in the Great Patriotic War
* December 1941: Winter and the defence of Moscow set a limit to the advance of AGCentre
* Operations Little Saturn and Uranus (Stalingrad): loss of Italian, Rumanian and 6th Army.
* July 1944 Operation Bagration: this was the decisive battle of the entire European war (on any front). The Red Army crippled the Wehrmacht comprehensively in this operation. A study of this operation and its planning sheds interesting light on the current war.
It helped that the Brits were feeding Enigma-encrypted signals intelligence to the Soviets; this assisted the Russians to apply maskirovka to a brilliant feint in the south.
Nothing about German military decision-making makes much sense after this. D-Day could have been repulsed (had Rommel been listened to); Ardennes was a big mistake. Italy was a success partly because Kesselring had a kind of autonomy organise the defence as he saw fit and he was a gifted commander. The Germans in the East should have developed a defence-in-depth approach that gave up the Festungen approach—something like the UA defence in Donbas. They must have realised that surrendering to the Allies was the better option. In the end, the politics of the conferences needs closer analysis.
Hollywood notwithstanding, D-Day and the Italian campaign were Allied invasions of Europe which established the US relationship with Europe currently in place. The Atlantic Treaty of 1941 laid all this out for the next 80 years. The wild card was—and always has been—Russia. God bless them.
Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 12 2023 22:18 utc | 94
I would say the Russian campaign is succesful. But where everybody is looking whether the frontline in Ukraine moves this way or that, the economic frontline is at least as important. That Russia is pushing North America and Europe in recession is incredible.
Posted by: Passerby | Jan 12 2023 22:19 utc | 95
As to Russia's near future movesa - winter offensive - I have read bits and pieces on Russian law and constitution concerning its military. Where do mobilized forces stand in that regard? Can they be used outside Russian territory? I believe the sudden referendums before mobilization was to address that issue. Any offensive outside Russian territory may only involve volunteer forces. Missile forces on the other hand can strike anywhere. The joint Belarus Russian forces in Belarus need to nothing other than be visible. That will keep a large Ukraine force locked onto the Belarus border.
Ukraine now thing its forces on all parts of the front to pour reinforcements into Bakhmut.
Ukraine seems to be looking at a springtime offensive at the earliest but that may be just in their dreams. How many armies can be raised and equipped after the others have been destroyed. Western politicians require Ukraine wins to continue pouring money into the black hole of Ukraine otherwise the peasants will get rowdy, also there is a bit of a move or undercurrent in the US to dump Ukraine and attack China.
Russian pullback from Kherson right bank. In the referendum, Kherson region votes were lower than the others. When Russian forces initially occupied Kherson city, there were some protests where Russian forces used tear gas. I don't think Russia is interested in controlling regions and cities where it may only have sixty percent support so for that reason I don't think they will try and take other regions militarily.
I think any moves outside what is now Russian territory will be purely to destroy Ukraine/Nato forces rather than to hold territory, and that will depend on what forces can legally operate outside Russia's borders.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2023 22:23 utc | 96
Please help
My wife is building a class for 102 advanced english composition and is needing an article to critique on the historical events leading up to the conflict in Ukraine.
Can't use a book, need a several page article from a source that isn't tinfoil. What's in the bookshelf behind the bar?
Posted by: comrade simba | Jan 12 2023 22:26 utc | 97
@Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2023 19:39 utc| 52
"Ukraine will be required to rewrite its constitution. Outlaw nazism, no NATO or military alliances and neutral."
None of this can happen for real, short of regime change in Kiev. Thus, regime change would be the next goal, the alternative being outright annexation. How to achieve one or the other of these goals, remains unclear (to me).
Trust was wasted during 20 years in "our partners in the West" in the hope to solve situations which were of THEIR making.
This phase of painful clarification is now over.
Posted by: lahire | Jan 12 2023 22:29 utc | 98
re: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:27 utc | 46
Guess who they are.
BIS
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 12 2023 22:30 utc | 99
re: aristodemos | Jan 12 2023 19:27 utc | 46
Guess who they are.
Rothschilds if you go back to 1815
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 12 2023 22:31 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
all:
Two events really got to me yesterday.
1) watching the trench fight video. *war really is Hell, not a video game.
2) watched the longest and most vivid sunset I have seen in decades driving through the southern California desert.
Posted by: morongobill | Jan 12 2023 15:43 utc | 1