Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 03, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-03

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on January 3, 2023 at 17:31 UTC | Permalink

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To continue from some of the themes from the previous thread:

First, about "red lines," it seems to me that just as the US actively tried to goad Russia into more direct action in Ukraine, the US leadership, or some of it, is also trying to goad Russia into using nuclear weapons. On the face of it, this sounds suicidal, but maybe they imagine that if Russia were to use a "tactical" nuclear weapon in Ukraine first, that would enable the US MSM to denounce Russia for it but also open the door for the US to use such weapons actively in the future, which they would love to do. There is no limit to the diabolical nature of the US neocons, their illusions, their bullheadedness, and their stupidity. They are as wicked as any historical actors have every been, but with more devastating technology.

Second, in response to those who want more muscular direct action from Russia against the outrageousness of US imperialism, there is a very good reason why that doesn't happen: because two can play at that game, so if the elite of one side try to take out the other side's high elite, there will be retaliation, and that will lead to a descending cycle of violence that will benefit no one. Better just to let the peasant cannon fodder suffer.

Posted by: Cabe | Jan 3 2023 17:41 utc | 1

Cabe no 1

Does anyone really believe there is such a thing as a tactical nuclear weapon?!

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 17:57 utc | 2

Prière de Joe Biden à Dieu pour 2023

Joe : "Mon Dieu, faite que les USA puissent transformer le monde en une tour de Babel pour sauver le dollar d'un crash car nous avons abusé de la création monétaire par cupidité, nous sommes prêts à commettre tous les crimes et mensonges que vous souhaitez au nom de Dieu pour y arriver"
ps : si vous pouviez effacer le dossier d'Hunter, ça m'arrangerait aussi car même le FBI n'y arrive plus.

Dieu : Désolé Joe, tu t'es trompé de n° de téléphone, je te passe Satan qui a déjà signé avec Bibi et Ursula

Posted by: Christophe Nicolas | Jan 3 2023 17:58 utc | 3

The United States government has spent decades fostering events that serve its interests, in doing so it has gradually lost any moral compass it once had. The danger to the world of this corruptive decay is obvious, with officials in the Biden administration attempting to convince themselves they can engineer victory, in attempting to do so they just might miscalculate and bring the world to a fuller acquaintance with the nuclear option. The grip this stupidity has on those leading western governments is hard to grasp, they are certifiable lunatics.

Posted by: Barry Sheridan | Jan 3 2023 17:58 utc | 4

Seems to me that the current situation sits just fine with Russia and the US.. the two who could opt to change it.

Russia is causing extremely effective damage, progressing towards 'demilitarization' at a very reasonable ratio.. The US gets to keep the MIC wealth pump going, and to test weapons in the field or dispose of those they know are ineffective, as well as the soviet stockpile that existed in Eastern Europe, locking everyone in to NATO purchases. Neither is it in the interests of UKR leadership to stop right now.. they get their cut, and world tours etc.

No, it is UKR and EU that suffer most, followed by Russia.

It seems to be a race between something happening to break one of the parties involved. I think that UKR will break first, but, if not, the EU is in a world of steadily increasing hurt. The Euro was brilliantly trade balanced (externally), but now decreased export and increased import have skewed it negative, with inflation and increased fuel costs for its denizens and no end in sight. Industrial concerns leaving will add pressure on welfare, and to the trade balance issue.

US wants to claim victory over old Soviet hardware (read the internet.. everyone thinks the Javelin was effective), but the initial stocks of T64s and T70s didn't do well, and now Russia is giving T90s to the LPR and DPR (no shortage of the new stuff). But Russia has also learned the new style of warfare, is manufacturing some fairly impressive drones (not what we see now), increasing production of precision munitions (e.g. krasnopol), and missiles go without saying. Also the space program (three mil satellite launches last month...)

So a race to breakage.. Russia is adapting to the new reality and has many reserves. US is profiting. EU or UKR first?

One of my parents is from Ukraine, I have been there to see family, and my heart bleeds for all people of them and for Russia as well. So stupid that it all could have been avoided... Minsk II seemed reasonable to me (and, confronting my family with it, they admitted that it seems a fantastic deal now) but the Kraken must grow or perish. Such are the days of our lives.

Posted by: dask | Jan 3 2023 18:02 utc | 5

Cabe@#1

Cabe, have you given consideration to the kinetic (non nuclear) power of hypersonic missiles? Their impact is not merely the explosion force. It is multiplied by the speed of the vehicle, combined with the gravity effect of their extremely high altitude, while protected from enemy countermeasures by their ability to maneuver, rather than the standard and solid arc of trajectory common to ordinary ballistic missiles.

Russia has a long stated policy of no first nukes. Hypersonic missiles relieve them from even considering what amounts to a multiplicatively inferior resolution in using the brash alternative.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 18:07 utc | 6

Posted by: Cabe | Jan 3 2023 17:41 utc | 1

Not really. Since Little Boy was dropped onto innocent Japanese civilians in 1945, how many people have been murdered globally by the US?

When US wants to use nuclear weapons, tactical or otherwise, US will use it unabashedly. The only reason US has not used any nuclear weapons is that US doesn't have survivability after initiation. US knows that it is dealing with peers, not minions.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Jan 3 2023 18:12 utc | 7

Posted by: Barry Sheridan | Jan 3 2023 17:58 utc | 4

The biggest myth of them all is that the United States - that is the highest echelons of government as selected and directed by private capital - ever had a moral compass at all. Maybe in the pre-Constitution days.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 3 2023 18:14 utc | 8

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 18:07 utc | 6

'.....have you given consideration to the kinetic (non nuclear) power of hypersonic missiles? Their impact is not merely the explosion force. It is multiplied by the speed of the vehicle, combined with the gravity effect of their extremely high altitude,.....'

You for sure didn't do, or rather do not know what you are talking about!
Alright, back to sleep again.

Posted by: Hmpf | Jan 3 2023 18:16 utc | 9

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 18:07 utc | 6

E = m/2*(v^2)

At, say, 3000 m/s (mach 9), E = 4.5MJ/kg

Energy in high explosive ~ 4.5 MJ/kg

So at mach 9, you would be mostly indifferent to adding more explosive vs increasing impact speed. Stylistic choice between penetrating mass and more explosive at that point. But still in the realm of a normal missile. The relevant attributes are inability to target, radar invisibility (plasma sheath), ability to penetrate e.g. underground, and reaction time.

Nukes are an entirely different ballgame. But who's to say the hypersonic missile doesn't have a nuke warhead? All the Russian ones can take one.

Posted by: dask | Jan 3 2023 18:17 utc | 10

The Ukrainian Civil War is a sideshow. The real
War is economic = De-Dollarization versus Demonizing Moscow

Posted by: Exile | Jan 3 2023 18:25 utc | 11

@ Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 3 2023 18:14 utc | 8
. . .US ever had a moral compass at all. Maybe in the pre-Constitution days.
No, it was busy eradicating native Americans in those days.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 3 2023 18:25 utc | 12

indian punchline from today

With eye on Iran, Netanyahu wades into Ukraine war

@ dask | Jan 3 2023 18:02 utc | 5

thanks for your posts and perspective...

Posted by: james | Jan 3 2023 18:26 utc | 13

re: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 17:57 utc | 2

you ask "Does anyone really believe there is such a thing as a tactical nuclear weapon?!

The B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb (that the US has deployed at 5 NATO member states in Europe) is a variable yield weapon, with the low end of the explosive power at 0.3 kilotons, i.e. 300 tons of TNT. The largest US conventional non-nuclear weapon has an explosive power of 11 tons of TNT.

The B61-12 was developed to pose a "credible threat", meaning it is a "usable" nuclear weapon.


Posted by: Steven Starr | Jan 3 2023 18:31 utc | 14

So russia is going hard on redirecting missle strikes from energy to military targets, with success according to them. The live map shows explosions with no details so might be true.(unless they add a detail saying a nursery got hit with 3 civilians dead. That's usually code for we got hurt, redirect it)

I suppose the new recruits now know this isn't a party. You have to wonder what they were told before going over. It's an artillery turkey shoot? Russian propaganda must be going overtime in th3 federation.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 3 2023 18:32 utc | 15

RE ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 17:57 utc | 2

"Does anyone really believe there is such a thing as a tactical nuclear weapon?!"

Rational people do not - there has been a taboo against nuclear weapon use since 1945 - unfortunately there are many Western Politicians who are not rational and believe in a limited nuclear war

These people do not believe that they are at personal risk from nuclear weapons - when I was a teenager in the 1980's there was plenty of public fear of a nuclear war e.g. The Day after , Threads and When the Wind blows - now nuclear war has faded from public perception

This is way more scary than the Cold War - when politicians wanted to avoid Armageddon

As an aside - interesting video of Colonel MacGregor speaking with Godfrey Bloom - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D23V6UzS3P4

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jan 3 2023 18:33 utc | 16

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 3 2023 18:32 utc | 15

You've been watching ZDF again, haven't you.

Posted by: Vikichka | Jan 3 2023 18:37 utc | 17

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 17:57 utc | 2

The only one who has a policy of "using a single nuke here, a single nuke there" is the USA. IIRC Pentagon or some think tank made a report maybe 5-6 years ago where they were envisioning in using "low yield nukes" to defeat Iran. It's plausible, that they still envision the same policy today.

In reality, Nukes are either you use them all at once, or non at all.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 3 2023 18:39 utc | 18

@ aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 18:07 utc | 6

.. while protected from enemy countermeasures by their ability to maneuver, rather than the standard and solid arc of trajectory common to ordinary ballistic missiles.

That all is also added with a major feature and that is "plasma stealth", where the missile is enveloped in a plasma glow (due to s very high speed and atmospheric friction) making it invisible to any radar. Plasma shielding is absorbing electromagnetic waves from radar illumination.

What NATO radars can see is a tiny, small dot when launched from MIG-31, but just for a few seconds until it accelerates to hypersonic 5000 km/h. Cruising speed goes around 11.000 km/h but probably also more.
The rest is just guessing the projected trajectory until boom.
So radar tracking and countermeasures do not work because of such combination.

However, one can fire it towards say Moscow, and it ends up in Rammstein. So all in all – pretty much unpredictable.

I have a heard that so far it has been only tested 3 times in Ukraine, and it worked as expected, but haven't heard anything since about its usage.
I think old Soviet/NATO base in Ukraine went boom, some deep tunnel and some underground warehouse.

There was a video somewhere from 2015 testing where an old ship was holed in length – no explosive head, but it went through it as a bullet through an apple. Nothing survives that.

However, to me, this is the only thing that looks as a real gamechanger if used.
All this other wunder stuff is just a matter of a skill and a level of education, speed of operation, targeting info accessibility etc.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 3 2023 18:41 utc | 19

The B61-12 was developed to pose a "credible threat", meaning it is a "usable" nuclear weapon.

Japan used anthrax against 11 Chinese cities..........

US produced 5000 anthrax bombs Churchill intended to use against German cities.......but did not

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 3 2023 18:41 utc | 20

People doubt the propaganda of the present, but they do not doubt the propaganda of the past, which has become a fixed idea.

Posted by: sam | Jan 3 2023 18:44 utc | 21

@21 that's the propaganda to convince the people they're free, when in fact the state considers them property.

They doubt the propaganda because they're told they're above it now.

It's truly funny.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 3 2023 18:49 utc | 22

6, 9, 10

From what I can find the impact of hypersonics is not even well understood yet. It is not just the (correct) equation that dask gives at post 10. I do not understand and will not attempt to explain what a plasma wall is, all I can follow is that they are real good at energy transfer.

Early in the current war a Kinzhal was deployed against a major Soviet era ammo dump in far western Ukraine. It was situated in a natural cavern and under 60 meters of bedrock. The Kinzhal warhead is only 500kg and should do nothing in that situation. The dump went to secondary explosions and was completely destroyed. I am not even going to try to explain that, it was observed to happen.

One thing that is understood is the ones most discussed are flying in upper atmosphere, breathing air, and are propelled by ramjet. They are not ballistic, are not on a readily calculated ballistic trajectory. They are traveling in what is called a plasma cloud and are completely not visible to any variety of radar.

I have been looking and waiting a long time for a good explanation. Not seen yet.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 3 2023 18:52 utc | 23

From a previous post:

«New York Times some former British diplomat, now working for a pro-war think tank»

That's nothing: that is pretty mild by the standards of other "Washington Consensus" think-tankers and columnists (e.g. Simon Tisdall at zealous "The Guardian"), who usually advocate no-fly zones over Ukraine or bombings of Russian Federation targets (I think to move the "Overton Window" to the right.
https://www.theguardian.com/profile/simontisdall?page=1

And here are some quotes from "The Economist" and "Strategy Page" that are also amazing:

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/08/17/stay-cool-on-kherson>
«In the years to come, nato armed forces will queue at the door of Ukraine’s general staff to learn from the commanders who halted the Russian army’s march on Kyiv and Odessa and inflicted more than 60,000 casualties in six months of war.»

https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2022/12/20/the-world-this-year>
«Vladimir Putin’s excuse for this unprovoked act of aggression was that he wanted to “de-Nazify” the country, a democracy with a Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelensky. The invasion, which Mr Putin thought would end in a quick and easy victory, proved spectacularly incompetent. Russia failed to take Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Its vehicles and kit broke down. Ukrainians fought hard, picking off Russian fuel and ammunition supplies and pushing the invaders back. America and Europe supplied Ukraine with weapons, cash and intelligence. Russia shelled civilians, tortured captives, kidnapped children and made thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons.»

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20221230.aspx>
«The current state of the Russian military cannot support any Russian military objectives in Ukraine, or anywhere else. What Russia lost in Ukraine will take years to replace. For example, most of the infantry officers the army had in 2021 have already been killed, captured or disabled in Ukraine. There were no replacements for the lost infantry officers so Russia tried calling up retired officers and transferring non-infantry officers to lead infantry units. That did not work. Another problem is the lack of NCOs. These have been a staple of Western armies for centuries and are often capable of replacing infantry officers lost in combat. Russia abolished NCOs a century ago and has not been able to rebuild that after more than a decade of trying.
Russia is currently crippled by severe economic sanctions imposed because of their Ukraine invasion. According to Ukraine and its NATO supporters, the Ukraine war won’t end until all Russian troops are gone. Any New Russian Army will take years to create and currently the loss of officers and experienced soldiers has Russia depending on Belarussian instructors to train new Russian troops. This is done in Belarus to the extent possible because Belarus’s tiny army has much smaller training capability than the pre-2022 Russian army. Almost all new troops in Russia get no training at all and are just given uniforms, assault rifles and transportation to Ukraine where they find few officers to lead them and not much in the way of supplies, especially food, to sustain them.»

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:04 utc | 24

The expected result from 30 years of masdivr deindustrialization, theft and self-hatred from russian capitalist ruling class: a debilitated military, a tiny shadow of the Red Army, blessed only by the fact that NATO's states are captured by the same "libertarian" forces that destroyed their own state and industries. A bunch of small western websites such as this one, operating as self-delusional cults, are as far from teality, as imperial MSM.

Posted by: Kareem | Jan 3 2023 19:04 utc | 25

СВИДЕТЕЛЬСТВА ОБВИНЕНИЯ
https://putnik1.livejournal.com/9224008.html

About the rapid polarization of the active public into "lawyers" who are ready to justify anything and "prosecutors" who have indictments in advance, the author is certainly right. He is also right about the fact that the "legal profession" is mostly "simply unable to tolerate a higher level of anxiety" and therefore often tends to turn a blind eye to reality.

No, of course, there are clinical cases of pathological immorality in the line of duty, but let's not take those into account. Fuck them. Much more complicated is the question with motivation of "prosecutors", most of whom have become such following the results of the last 10 months, having formed their accusations on the basis of what we all see. And what do we see? And what we see is:

(a) in the diplomatic sphere, the Russian Federation has failed in every way possible. She has ceased to be feared and even respected. The traditional sphere of influence ("near abroad") is practically lost and goes under other "roofs", the many years of work on the "western azimuth" turned out to be a zilch, incongruously explained as "we were deceived!

(b) the "second world army" turned out to be, to put it mildly, not entirely combat-ready; the Defense Ministry is impotent, worse, drowned in theft and cronyism; commanders are mostly untalented; and the super-cool military industry (Armats, drones, etc.), it turns out, existed mainly on pretty slides;

(c) Russian propaganda is incapable of countering enemy propaganda (in the full sense of the word: ni-nothing!), except for the stupid ramblings of boring people who are very hard to believe, scolding of any critics and constant 70s-style nonsense that has become a sad, routine routine;

(d) The political leadership of the Russian Federation has gone into the shadows. It is disintegrated. For ten months it has failed to formulate clear objectives for the war, it clearly avoids taking responsibility for itself, it is unable to make the necessary personnel rotations, and it constantly arranges murky "contractual arrangements" in favor of the enemy.

All of this is obvious, objective, indisputable - and no wonder that the number of "prosecutors" is growing. And of course - here the author is absolutely right - "this situation is being skillfully used by our opponents to polarize and split society. In fact they don't deny that, on the contrary, they openly admit that any failure of the Russian authorities is used to undermine society. But here is the question...

Suppose the "prosecutors", in order to avoid polarization and schism, will roll up their mitts and stop analyzing and discussing the obvious with an accusatory slant, shifting to re-broadcasting officiousness. That is, they will stop doing the only thing that today - when it is impossible to silence inconvenient facts - forces the authorities to somehow react, and then what? Then, of course, it will become much easier for the perpetrators of all the tragedies. And Russia?

Posted by: Kareem | Jan 3 2023 19:05 utc | 26

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:04 utc | 24
«(e.g. Simon Tisdall at zealous "The Guardian")»

Here are some amazing quotes from him:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/05/timid-biden-condemns-ukrainians-to-an-agonising-war-without-end
«Biden’s too-modest war aims are a manifesto for the muddled middle. [...] This weak-kneed approach guarantees only one thing: the war will run and run. [...] Only increased direct and indirect Nato military pressure can shift this dynamic. [...] Now, tremulously pulling their punches, he and other western leaders condemn Ukrainians to exactly that.»

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/17/putin-is-already-at-war-with-europe-there-is-only-one-way-to-stop-him
«The sanctions, economic aid, and other non-military measures preferred by Biden were never going to be enough to bring Putin to heel. Some observers suspect a stalemate that slowly bleeds Russia suits US purposes, whatever the collateral damage. [...] The obvious escape route is a land-for-peace deal with Putin, agreed over Ukraine’s dead bodies. This kind of shoddy sellout has influential advocates. [...]
Fortunately, there is an alternative: using Nato’s overwhelming power to decisively turn the military tide. As previously argued here, direct, targeted, forceful western action to repulse Russia’s repulsive horde is not a vote for a third world war. [...] Enough of the half-measures and the dithering! Nato should act now to force Putin’s marauding troops back inside Russia’s recognised borders.»

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/27/russian-raids-western-apathy-kyiv-putin-ukrainians-us-europe
«In liberated Kherson, more grisly evidence of war crimes is uncovered. Wherever the Russians go, it’s the same horror story. Every day the killers go unpunished. Relentless waves of indiscriminate missile strikes darken Ukrainian skies, pulverising apartment blocks, clinics, shopping centres and schools. Moscow no longer even pretends to target the military. Its aim: to terrorise civilians. Destroying electricity, heat and water supplies to the main cities, already suffering food and medicine shortages, is key to Putin’s winter war. He strives to break Ukraine’s will, imperilling millions besieged by snow and ice. Every day, he perpetrates crimes against humanity. Russia’s red-handed army of homicidal generals, incompetent field commanders, out-of-control soldiers and hapless conscripts is attempting genocide – annihilation of a nation and a people – in plain sight. The European parliament voted last week to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. Good. Now order Putin’s arrest! Issue warrants for the president and all his gang. Expel his lying diplomats.»

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:07 utc | 27

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 3 2023 18:52 utc | 23

The kinetic energy at impact comes from the propulsion thrust during flight, except for whatever speed it has been launched at (e.g. air launched). In effect a part the amount of rocket fuel it carries at the start is converted in kinetic energy at impact (the other goes to friction during flight which I suspect is very dominant at these speeds). So add up that to the warhead in kg if you like.

That plasma cloud seems to me to be the hot gas from friction which at hypersonic speeds may have some interesting physics happening. It is comparable to the reentry of the shuttle (where equivalently part of the energy of the launching fuel tanks must be dissipated).

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 3 2023 19:09 utc | 28

Exile@11

I totally agree that the serious war is on the economic front. Reserve status of the U$D is based on history and history of gold holdings, and convenience, nothing more. Holding a dollar that can and will be canceled greatly reduces it attractiveness to everyone. I don't think that the U$D gets replaced per se. Mostly there will be a reason to trade in local currencies and local bourses or exchanges outside of the west will happily price and trade all currencies against all commodities all the time day and night and electronically. It will be like 1800's again but with the internet and blockchains. Everybody gets to print and back their own currency. The dollar will be nibbled to death by ducks. This is all time dependent and Ukraine is an international wound that will bleed out like in a Quentin Tarantino movie. Lotsa blood and gore but the guy just will not die no matter how long just as long as the movie lasts.

Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 3 2023 19:11 utc | 29

From secured comms to missile systems to modern tanks, the capitalist regime in Moscow went full-spectrum bluff with the "trusted partners".

https://topwar.ru/207749-armaty-ne-budet-mozhno-rashoditsja.html

«Арматы» не будет. Можно расходиться

"There will be no Armata. We can split up.
30 December 2022

Today "Armata" has really become a nickname, denoting either a long construction or fruitless attempts to do something from scratch. Just like the "Coalition", "Kurganets", "Burevestnik" and other "unparalleled" products.


Let's try to answer an elementary question: can the Russian Army have at its disposal, say, two hundred? That's two tank regiments, that is, practically a tank division. A strike force, because these breakthrough vehicles could try to have a significant impact on the situation in the SSR.

The whole problem is that mass production of the Armata is now impossible for many reasons. The situation is such that there is no ... however, it is easier to say what there is for the tank.


Engine

Here I will allow myself a little historical digression. In 1931, within the walls of the Kharkov Locomotive Plant, a galaxy of talented and brilliant Soviet engineers K.F. Chelpan, T.P. Chupakhin, Y.E. Vikhman, and I.Y. Trashutin created the V-2 tank diesel engine. Yes, the same engine that became the heart of T-34, KV-1, KV-2 and IS-1.


The V-2 has turned out so successful that ALL diesel engines of the Russian armored vehicles from V-84 (T-72), V-92S2F (T-72B3, T-90) to UTD-20 (BMP-1 and BMP-2) and UTD-29 (BMP-3) represents a further upgrade of this engine. And you can long praise the V-2 or vice versa, doubt its capabilities as a modern engine, but the fact is that almost all Russian armored vehicles are moved by this engine. Simple, but reliable and mastered to the screws

Posted by: Kareem | Jan 3 2023 19:17 utc | 30

@ Christophe Nicolas | Jan 3 2023 17:58 utc | 3 - Translation:

Joe Biden's prayer to God for 2023

Joe: "God, please let the US turn the world into a tower of Babel to save the dollar from crashing because we have abused money creation out of greed, we are willing to commit any crime and lie you want in the name of God to do it."

ps: If you could erase Hunter's file, that would be good for me too because even the FBI can't do it anymore.

God: Sorry Joe, you got the wrong phone number, I'll put you through to Satan, who has already signed with Bibi and Ursula.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 19:18 utc | 31

Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 3 2023 19:11 utc | 29
«Reserve status of the U$D is based on history and history of gold holdings, and convenience, nothing more.»

Oh please enough with the silly, currencies are "backed" by two things, neither of which are gold or history etc.:

* The desirable goods and assets that can be purchased from abroad using that currency. Post WW2 the dollar dominated because the only source of large amounts of goods and raw materials was the USA, undamaged by war and with much expanded production. This created what at the time was called "dollar shortage".
Currently there are still plenty of things that can be purchased with dollars, from Hollywood movies to Florida mansions.

* The fiscal capacity of a government to pay back to foreign creditors its debt denominated in its currency. The USA government will squeeze its lower classes as hard as it takes to have the necessary fiscal capacity.

The switchover from sterling to dollars as global preferred currency was very fast after WW2, because after the UK's defeat it could not produce much that was purchasing by foreign importers, and its government's ability to squeeze their lower class was already to the limit (and its middle and upper class assets had been already mostly confiscated to pay for USA supplies during the early phase of the war).

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:20 utc | 32

re: WMD yield

as for Germany - latest warhead B61-12 variable from 0,3 kt to 50 kt. (Hiroshima was about 18 kt)

The trick behind low yield is, I believe, still top secret.
But the idea of using tempers around the core for that purpose (aka mini-nuke) might even go back to WWII.

* * *

re: irrationality & WMDs

1995 US-STRATCOM issued a secret paper as part of then Nuclear Posture Review.
It contained the "wisdom" of displaying an irrational persona in matters of use of force, to impress foes:

"(...)Because of the value that comes from the ambiguity of what the US may do to an adversary if the acts we seek to deter are carried out, it hurts to portray ourselves as too fully rational or cool-headed. ... The fact that some elements [of the US government] may appear to be potentially 'out of control' can be beneficial to creating and reinforcing fears and doubts within the minds of an adversary's decision-makers... That the US may become irrational and vindictive if attacked if its vital interests are attacked should be a part of the national persona we project to all adversaries(...)"

http://www.acronym.org.uk/old/archive/textonly/dd/dd24/24pent.htm

The entire Stratcom paper here (see quoted passage p.33 Appendix 2)

www.bits.de/public/pdf/rr98-5.pdf

* * *

re: risks & WMDs

- is not one major risk, outdated Russian alarm systems? So if things play out not as planned a misunderstanding is more likely. One reason why Russian High Command might be more prone to "shoot first before being shot at". Not out of bad faith but for lack of technological means. pre-emptive involuntarily so to speak. "Dark Eagle" to be stationed in Germany 2023 (?) will increase such risk by putting more stress on already overstrained systems.

(May be even intentionally thus in crisis provoking a Russian mistake?)

Posted by: AG | Jan 3 2023 19:22 utc | 33

@ Blissex & Kareem

Why are you tag-teaming to fill the thread with spam ?

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 19:24 utc | 34

Anyone hazard the probability of a "low yield" nuclear weapon detonation in the coming year?
There's almost an expectation it's going to happen in some sort of by the way fashion in some lunatics asylum bubble.
There's a surreal atmosphere.
If you mention it often enough it's not going to be so bad.

Posted by: jpc | Jan 3 2023 19:24 utc | 35

Barry Sheridan (4)

When you think about it, the USA, and possibly Nato countries though I think some of the latter have been dragged along, rather than cheerleading, have been building up to this conflict since 1945, though Nato wasn't formed until 1949, the UK (Westminster) has had some sort of grudge against Russian for centuries (Read articles on The Great Game to learn more) this would explain their constant hostility towards Russia, but there are also many grey areas as well such as UK PM Tony Blair, who dined with Putin and went to the opera in St Petersburg, whilst Russia was quelling Chechnya.

I think in order to economically break China, the US must first deal with Russia, the 2014 coup in Ukraine, and the eventual intervention in the Donbas by Russia has given the US the impetus to increase the intensity of hostilities towards Russia using Ukraine as a proxy. Once Russia is dealt with the surrounding of China can be completed or there abouts.


Ultimately those madmen in the Pentagon will eventually call for some sort of plan that involves attacks against Russia, but Russia isn't Libya, Afghanistan or Syria, and that could be a fatal mistake.


For me the key to peace is Europe, without the compliance of European nations the US and the UK cannot continue to effectively wage war against Russia via Ukraine, and the only way to turn Europe away from the war is for the citizens of Europe to protest and revolt against their governments, if the cost of living crisis gets worse, and the price of energy rises the people of Europe might act, afterall any war fought between the US/UK and Russia will probably be fought in Europe, it will once again be the Europeans who feel the effects of war.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 3 2023 19:24 utc | 36

Lotsa blood and gore but the guy just will not die no matter how long just as long as the movie lasts.

Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 3 2023 19:11 utc | 29

The dollar is likely to remain reserve currency among the 12% of the World that’s NATO+, but among the 87% it’s use will shrink steadily over the next 3-7 years.

De-Dollarization means economic collapse for Washington. Skyrocking interest rates, currency devalued by more than 100%, all gov’t pensions worthless, plus secondary effect horrors

That’s the only question worth examining

Posted by: Exile | Jan 3 2023 19:28 utc | 37

I very much doubt that the conflict in Ukraine will lead to the use of nuclear weapons, firstly any nuclear weapon fired at Russia, would probably see nuclear weapons fired back at that country, and Russia has a strong protocol on when it can use these weapons of mass destruction.

If the USA or the UK fired nuclear weapons at Russia those that gave the order would know fine well that nuclear weapons would be coming back their way, with (MAD) Mutually Assured Destruction no one wins, no this war even if it does spill over the borders of Ukraine will in my opinion be one of intelligence (and who has it first) combined with precise missile and drone strikes, with the human element bringing up the rear.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 3 2023 19:32 utc | 38

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:20 utc | 32
«currencies are "backed" by two things [...]:
* The desirable goods and assets that can be purchased from abroad using that currency. [...]
* The fiscal capacity of a government to pay back to foreign creditors its debt denominated in its currency.»

Consider the very different cases of the RF Rouble and the UA Hrivnia or the cambodian Riel:

* Using the RF rouble allows buying large quantities of very useful gas and oil, large quantities of cereals, other foods, many other raw materials, and several industrial products. The RF government obviously has the fiscal capacity nowadays to pay back rouble denominated international debt.

* The ukrainian or cambodian currencies cannot be used to buy anything that a foreign importer might want, in part because the ukrainian industry has collapsed, and the cambodian economy produces not much. In Ukraine you need euros to pay for anything significant and in Cambodia dollars.

* Neither the ukrainian or cambodian governments have the fiscal capacity to pay back debt denominated in their own currencies (or for that matter in euros or dollars).

A quote from M Muggeridge's diary, 1942-03-19, illustrating how the sterling had decayed, as the UK visibly had nothing useful to export and a no fiscal capacity to pay back sterling denominated debt:

“Here in Lisbon is the last vestige in Europe of our old way of life now precariously existing. [...] Here are cafes, neon signs, money haggling, petit dejuner with fat pats of butter brought in on a tray, jangling trams and taxi cabs and newspapers of all the nations.
One deep and significant change may, however, be noted, the pound sterling has lost its magical qualities: rub rub at the lamp and no all-powerful djinn appears, at best only a reluctant slut who must be coaxed for any service at all”

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:32 utc | 39

This sounds like total fantasyland to me, but I'm interested to hear what you guys think.

While there is no doubt that there are 'secret' agreements between Israel and Russia (otherwise Israel would have lost many, many aircraft by now), I sincerely doubt that Netanyahu is as influential where Putin is concerned as the author of that piece seems to think he is.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/with-eye-on-iran-netanyahu-wades-into-ukraine-war/

Posted by: Bob Jenkins | Jan 3 2023 19:33 utc | 40

The main strike will not come until the mud freezes. According to recent 14 day weather forecast of Donetsk City, the ground will not start to freeze until January 8th. The weather has been unseasonably warm in Ukraine.

The 2 weeks weather forecast continues to get updated to higher temperatures just above the ground freezing temperature.

NOTE: HAARP and/or other may be at work to continue to bump the temperature above freezing. So, any weather forecast for Ukraine may turn out to be incorrect.

Whenever the ground freezes solid, the Russians will mobilize in a BIG way. Until then, Russia will continue to open up more new fronts to grind away the Ukrainian army along the very long zero line.

Now that Russia has destroyed a large amount of the Ukrainian electrical grid, their missiles and drones will be focused on Ukrainian logistics, troop concentrations, artillery, and air defense systems.

When it finally looks like the ground has frozen solid, the rail and road system to the Donbas will be cut.

Posted by: young | Jan 3 2023 19:36 utc | 41

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 3 2023 19:09 utc | 28

It's a misconception that it's friction... it's non-adiabatic compression of the air in front. At sufficient velocity vs air density, it is enough to ionize the air (the plasma sheath).

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 3 2023 18:52 utc | 23

The issue with hypersonics is that you have to imagine how explosives and kinetic warheads work with respect to where the energy is 'released'. The very same thing as heat vs sabot rounds in tanks. The warheads are interchangeable per target.

But imagine that you had instead of an explosive warhead, it was a tungsten dart at half the weight. Final velocity is say +15% = +22.5% kinetic energy. So ~65% the delivered energy (high explosive still carries energy, but increase in kinetic partially makes it up.).

But where is the energy dissipated? With a high explosive warhead, it would still mainly be on the surface, but at those speeds there would still be penetration. With a tungsten (or better but unethical imho, DU) penetrator, it can go a very long way depending on geometery.

Compare to a tank sabot at 18 kg and 2000 m/s muzzle velocity. Can penetrate ~0.5 m of custom steel at 2 km (way less than muzzle velocity). The hypersonic warhead will be ~200 kg and hit at 3500+ m/s. For napkin math, imagine ~40x the kinetic energy at impact.

I don't think it was 60m of bedrock (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sergiy-Stovba/publication/346745650_Geological_structure_and_tectonic_evolution_of_the_Ukrainian_sector_of_the_Black_Sea/links/5fd6332c45851553a0b1c698/Geological-structure-and-tectonic-evolution-of-the-Ukrainian-sector-of-the-Black-Sea.pdf). But all of those soil/rock types are significantly more 'permeable' than granite.

If it was 60m of bedrock, I would have my doubts, but, especially if it was DU (pyrophoric), then yep. That's how you would get through.

Posted by: dask | Jan 3 2023 19:41 utc | 42

Russia says that they destroyed some Himars today. Can anyone tell me why they did not do it before today?

This tells me that the odds of a winter offensive happening are slim.

Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Jan 3 2023 19:44 utc | 43

Posted by: Kareem | Jan 3 2023 19:04 utc | 25
«The expected result from 30 years of masdivr deindustrialization, theft and self-hatred from russian capitalist ruling class: a debilitated military, a tiny shadow of the Red Army»

Perhaps of the Red Army of old, before it became the Soviet Army, because there is this report I reckon credible:

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/03/the-universal-boosting-of-putin/
«Back in the days when I was one of the British state’s more efficient functionaries, I spoke with British officers who had been in Russia during the Yeltsin period, when they had been able to get up close and effectively inventory the Russian armed forces. (For those who don’t know, I was First Secretary at the British Embassy in Warsaw, I was British Ambassador in Tashkent, and I was taught to be fluent in both Polish and Russian, which included living in St Petersburg as a language student while Ambassador designate).

What we (as I was then a cog in this machine) found was that the strength of the Soviet Union’s Red Army had been massively exaggerated in all our intelligence estimates, on which defence strategy had been based for decades. We had over-estimated the numbers, the mobility and above all the capability of Soviet weapons systems. Much of it was barely functional; the problems with both quality and maintenance were not just the product of the disintegration of the Soviet system, they evidently went back decades.»

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:44 utc | 44

predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

one prediction I suggest is ‘there is no stopping once you fire a nuke

I know of no war game where one side shot a nuke that did not spiral to MAD.

I do not think Biden is rational…..

Posted by: paddy | Jan 3 2023 19:45 utc | 45

I totally agree that the serious war is on the economic front. Reserve status of the U$D is based on history and history of gold holdings, and convenience, nothing more. Holding a dollar that can and will be canceled greatly reduces it attractiveness to everyone. The U$D is toast, but it will take awhile. You left out the huge markets, liquidity, and financial instruments (hedges) available. You're a Kuwaiti and you need $1 Billion and are invested in treasuries. They have a narrow bid/ask spread and a large order stack on either side. That's liquidity and your trade clears in 30 seconds. Need to hedge your holdings against the Yen? Future FED moves? Easy.

There's no real competition right now. The problem was the suicide of the US via sanctions. Competition will emerge because the idiots just created a demand for it. But it will take some time.

Posted by: JackG | Jan 3 2023 19:47 utc | 46

Worth five minutes of your time as an example of badly-done propaganda.

https://rumble.com/v23djey-bbc-reporter-was-upset-to-see-russian-love-their-country-instead-of-bootlic.html

Take a drink every time you see something he says that is actually illustrated by the film. You'll still be thirsty at the end.

PS. Think how long and hard his flunkies searched to find a grocery store and were, apparently unable to find one with any empty shelves.

Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | Jan 3 2023 19:47 utc | 47

Posted by: Cabe | Jan 3 2023 17:41 utc | 1
"Since Little Boy was dropped onto innocent Japanese civilians in 1945, how many people have been murdered globally by the US?"

A few years ago a group of historians got together to try to answer that question. Their best estimate turned out to be some 20 million.

Posted by: AntiSpin | Jan 3 2023 19:47 utc | 48

@aristodemos No6
An excellent point. Vide the Soviet-era deep nuke weapons storage point in the Carpathians that was taken out by a Kinzhal early in the war.

Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | Jan 3 2023 19:50 utc | 49

Posted by: Blissex | January 03, 2023 at 19:44
«“We had over-estimated the numbers, the mobility and above all the capability of Soviet weapons systems.»

The obvious reason for this:

George Kennan "At a Century's Ending: Reflections 1982-1995" "Part II: Cold War in Full Bloom" page 118 (1997) ISBN 0-393-31609-2
“Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military-industrial establishment would have to go on, substantially unchanged, until some other adversary could be invented. Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy.”

«Much of it was barely functional; the problems with both quality and maintenance were not just the product of the disintegration of the Soviet system, they evidently went back decades.”»

There was actually some defensible reasons (as well as poverty and poor organization) for this:

* Contrarily to "Washington Consensus" propaganda the USSR had zero intention to attack and conquer Europe down to the Urals.

* For a purely defensive policy, the USSR reckoned (as do most NATO governments since 1991) that producing in advance arms that had proven good in the previous war and that probably would be obsolete in a new war was a bad investment, and that what was needed was an "ablative" layer of conventional defense that slowed down attacks enough to give the time to start producing new arms for the new war situation.

* For a purely defensive policy, the USSR relied mostly (as does the RF government today) on strategic nuclear missiles anyhow.

The difficulty is that proxy-wars and similar regime-change operations don't fit that reasoning.

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 19:53 utc | 50

Said to be a video of the Kinzhal fired early on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5x-hiR1ejGw&ab_channel=OPInfo

Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | Jan 3 2023 19:59 utc | 51

@ Patrick Armstrong | Jan 3 2023 19:47 utc | 47

Feeble, agreed. Consider the voxpop with the two women must have been the 'worst' they could find re their loaded questions. LOL

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 20:02 utc | 52

THE DEFINITION OF RUSSOPHOBIA (AND PROPAGANDA)

The Russian was visiting London Zoo. He was in the restaurant having a snack and a bottle of beer.
There was a commotion outside and a woman shouting help my daughter. The Russian rushed over and saw the child fallen into the crocodile enclosure. He swiftly jumped down, scooped the girl up and lifted her up to her mother, and climbed out himself. The mother was overjoyed and thanked the stranger for being such a good English gentleman. But I'm Russian, he said. The next day newspaper headline was "drunk russian tourist steals dinner from the crocodiles".

This is a joke, but exactly describes how the MSM behaves towards Russia.

Posted by: Kaiama | Jan 3 2023 20:12 utc | 53

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 19:24 utc | 34
«@ Blissex & Kareem
Why are you tag-teaming to fill the thread with spam ?»

Ha! Busted already, you are too intelligent!
"Kareem" is actually my good friend Annalena Baerbock, and I am her manager, Richard Moore. We were having such good fun.

:-)

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 20:14 utc | 54

interesting video of Colonel MacGregor speaking with Godfrey Bloom - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D23V6UzS3P4

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jan 3 2023 18:33 utc | 16

There is a long and informative comment posted under this video regarding Ukrainian Nationalist atrocities against their Polish neighbors in years gone by. It is well worth reading, to I am copying it here.

UKRAINIAN QUESTION IN A NUTSHELL

With regard to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and Poland’s role therein, light needs to be shed on the historical, linguistic and geographical perspective. The etymology of the very name “Ukraine” warrants a mention. In the Polish language, “Ukraina” (Ukraine) literally signifies “at the boundary” (“u” in Polish means “at” and “kraina” stands for an “edge”, a “periphery”). In the Middle Ages, the term “ukraina” came to denote any border region, in a geographical sense. Much of the area of what is today’s Ukraine was originally known as Ruthenia and its inhabitants were commonly called Ruthenians. Ruthenia was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth between the 14th and the 18th century. It was only in the early 1900s that nationalist sentiment started to grow in the western part of Ruthenia, to a large extent at the instigation of the-then Austrian Empire. The idea behind the move was “divide and conquer” with respect to the Polish and Ruthenian inhabitants of the province. It was then that the term “Ukraine” came into use in terms of nationhood and nationality.

Ukrainian nationalists throve in Ruthenia’s western regions, largely populated by the Poles (peasants, landed gentry and intelligentsia alike). In prewar Poland’s eastern provinces of Volhynia and Eastern Lesser Poland, numerous terrorist attacks against the Polish people and officials were staged. One of the nationalist leaders and ideologists, Stepan Bandera came up with the concept of “creative terror” with a view to eliminating any traces of Polish ethnic presence in the region. Subsequently, as many as 362 (sic!) types of torture were devised and eagerly applied in due course. The result was the homicide perpetrated by Ukrainian nationalists against their Polish neighbours and frequently their own family members (mixed marriages were not uncommon) in the years 1939-1945.

Given the scale and character of the carnage, it is now termed genocidium atrox in legal and historical parlance. Poles of all ages, male and female alike were massacred during the carefully planned genocide the bestiality of which knew no bounds. Shocking though it might seem, commonplace were instances of orthodox priests of Ukrainian extraction blessing axes, saws, knives, hammers and other torture devices before launching assaults on Polish homes. There is hardly a family in Poland that has not lost someone in the massacres. Sadly, Bandera and his accomplices are worshipped as national heroes and role models in Ukraine today. This is a genuine slap in the face for the Poles, who up till now have not been allowed to build decent cemeteries and monuments on Ukrainian soil honouring the victims. Since 1991, the Ukrainian authorities have been blocking any exhumation attempts. No official apologies have been made either.

Interestingly, the geopolitical entity popularly known as “Ukraine” never developed its own aristocracy or middle class. All the aristocracy in the region was either of Polish or Russian origin. The Ukrainians never had their own language; what existed were merely numerous mutually comprehensible dialects. The south-eastern part of Ukraine has Russian-speaking population whereas the language called “Ukrainian” today can be heard in the areas in the vicinity of the Polish border. The largely artificial state and nation that emerged in 1991 are based on western Ruthenian peasant population as well as on the tradition related to belligerent and rebellious Cossacks.

All the tragic facts referred to make a lot of Polish people sceptical about the prospect of “dying for Ukraine” contrary to the message spread by the mainstream media.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Jan 3 2023 20:14 utc | 55

JackG @ 46

The weaponized dollar cries out for competition. Liquidity and large pools of capital are a separate and more interesting thing.

My favorite Ukrainian Sergey Glazyev argues that capital for building things in Russia should come from Moscow and not NYC or London. He has written a few papers and articles that I wish I had kept better track of.

I think he would regard some of the most hurtful western sanctions as good medicine for a healthier Russia. It is as though the State Dept and Treasury are intent on "self goals"accrding to his viewpoint. The presumed tension between the Bank of Russia (Elvia N.) and Sergey is the show worth watching.

Not as much blood either.

Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 3 2023 20:16 utc | 56

@ Outraged | Jan 3 2023 19:24 utc | 34

its hard ignoring a poster who comes on to immediately trash moa, isn't it? cheers and thanks for your posts...

Posted by: james | Jan 3 2023 20:22 utc | 57

From my school days, tactical nuclear weapons were as dangerous to own as to enemy troops - because they are used in tactical level, eg. too close.

Be it a ridiculous https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device) nuclear reconciles rifle, nuclear torpedoes that sink launching sub if it is closer 10 miles from detonation or even tactical nuclear artillery shells that spread too much radiation and complicate things too much.

For what it's worth, they were developed in time when weapons were not accurate enough so they needed bigger bang. This is not case any more, Russia officially declared their conventional precision weapons (Kalibrs, Iskanders etc.) are accurate enough that they are replacing concept of tactical nukes are obsolete.

So, only practical value nukes have left are operational/strategic level, ad least for regular armies.

"Tactical", dirty and other methods have value only for terrorist attacks.

Posted by: Abe | Jan 3 2023 20:22 utc | 58

Interesting piece posted by Farm Ecologist. But when you speak about Ukrainian orthodox priests blessing the weapons, you should be more specific and speak about the Greek Catholic Church there, who could better be called Ukrainian Catholic Church. The Polish Lithuanian empire managed to split off this church from the orthodox church (under the Moscow Patriarchate) around 1600. This church was allowed to keep the external orthodox rite but would recognise Rome as their head. The jesuits were behind it. Their policy was: if there are no pagans in Europe to convert anymore, we can try a top down approach and try to split off churches from the Moscow and Istanbul patriarchates using political arguments, bribe and blackmail.

Posted by: Teraspol | Jan 3 2023 20:26 utc | 59

Rybar again reports that Russia's stocks of artillery shells are nearly spent. "millions of shells are needed, only tens of thousands are produced" Rybar also reports that the Ukrainians are planning a massive offensive on Kreminna. This is disappointing news, that they are able to launch an offensive on another front while still successfully holding ground on the Donbass front and everywhere else. These have been difficult months for Russia supporters.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 3 2023 20:26 utc | 60

Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 3 2023 20:16 utc | 56
«My favorite Ukrainian Sergey Glazyev argues that capital for building things in Russia should come from Moscow and not NYC or London.»

The PRC got loads of usian and german capital to build for them the latest and greatest factories, research centres, etc. of which they have 100% possession and effective control, and it has worked great for them.

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 20:28 utc | 61

Posted by: Klutch Kargo | Jan 3 2023 20:16 utc | 56
«My favorite Ukrainian Sergey Glazyev argues that capital for building things in Russia should come from Moscow and not NYC or London.»

To be clearer: what's less good than getting lots of USA/Germany/... capital to build very useful stuff under your own sovereign power is to put lots of your own capital in USA/UK/... banks or investments which are under their sovereign power.

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 20:33 utc | 62

Jihad Julian reports that "Situation around Bakhmut and Soledar is extremely tense for Ukrainian defenders." Some pro-UA accounts in the comments are making panicked comparisons to Severodonetsk. At least that's something...

Posted by: catdog | Jan 3 2023 20:37 utc | 63

A question for you, b.

Would the war or western response/strategy be looking any different if the US & NATO were still in Afghanistan?

Thank you.

Posted by: Splash of Bourbon | Jan 3 2023 20:38 utc | 64

@ oldhippie | Jan 3 2023 18:52 utc | 23
@ dask | Jan 3 2023 19:41 utc | 42

I'm aware only of one Kinzhal attack with clear location (the other(s) remained doubtful). This one was Delyatyn in the Karpathian mountains. It used to be a stockpile for soviet nuclear weapons, tactical nukes, etc. (https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%86%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BE-%D0%A4%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BA%D1%96%D0%B2%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA-16). Reusing an abondoned mine, with railway junction (48.511978616917325, 24.59022835796237) and some barracks on top (48.51620992964321, 24.5408408177309). The Kinzhal may have hit some staircase, ventilation shaft (may be here close to the helipad 48.518213500796314, 24.57751681934216) - the Russians are likely aware of the planning of these bunkers. I would like to see the damage assasement as well. Silence from the West seems to confirm a lot of damage, as a failure would have been in the headlines ...

Posted by: BG13 | Jan 3 2023 20:45 utc | 65

@ james | Jan 3 2023 20:22 utc | 57

You are most welcome. Cheers & prost! :)

...

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (03.01.2023)

◽️ In the Kupyansk direction, more than 40 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles and three pickup trucks were destroyed as a result of the shelling of AFU units in the areas of Sinkovka, Ivanovka and Berestovoye of the Kharkiv region.

◽️ In addition, two sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Ukrainian armed forces were destroyed in the areas of Novoselovskoye and Tabaevka, Kharkiv region.

◽️ In the Krasno-Limansky direction, Russian artillery and heavy flamethrower systems struck four AFU assault groups in the areas of Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People's Republic, Novosadovoye, Serebryanka and Hryhorovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The losses of the enemy amounted to more than 120 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, four armored fighting vehicles, three pickup trucks and two vehicles. A sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Ukrainian armed forces was destroyed near the settlement of Stelmakhovka in the Luhansk People's Republic.

◽️ In the Donetsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive. As a result of a complex fire attack on the enemy in the areas of Krasnoye, Petrovskoye, Nevelskoye, Georgievka and Pobeda settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic, up to 90 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, five armored fighting vehicles and seven vehicles were destroyed.

◽️ In the South Donetsk direction, artillery strikes on AFU units near Prechistovka, Zolotaya Niva and Novodonetskoye settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic destroyed over 30 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles and three pickup trucks.

✈️ In addition, Russian air force high-precision strikes on temporary deployment points of "foreign legion" units in the areas of Masliakovka and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk People's Republic destroyed over 130 foreign mercenaries.

💥 Missile troops and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit 72 artillery units of the AFU in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 104 areas during the day.

💥 Four artillery ammunition and military equipment depots of the AFU were destroyed near the settlements of Gulyaypole and Chervonoye, Zaporizhzhia region. In the area of Tyaginka, Kherson region, a warehouse of weapons and military equipment of the AFU was destroyed.

💥 As a result of missile and air strikes against a cluster of military equipment near the Druzhkivka railway station in the Donetsk People's Republic, two US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers; four Czech-made RM-70 Vampire multiple rocket launcher vehicles; over 800 multiple rocket launchers; six vehicles, as well as up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed.

💥 In the course of counter-battery warfare near Kramatorsk, two US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, which had been used to shell populated areas of the Donetsk People's Republic, were uncovered and destroyed.

◽️ Three US-made M-777 artillery systems were destroyed at firing positions near the city of Artemivsk in the Donetsk People's Republic and the village of Chervonaya Dibrova in the Luhansk People's Republic. Two Ukrainian Grad MLRS vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Volchansk (Kharkiv region) and Serebryanka (Donetsk people's republic). Two D-30 howitzers were destroyed in the areas of Kamenskoye and Gulyaypole of Zaporizhzhia region.

💥 Anti-aircraft defense forces shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of Svistunovka, Chervonopopovka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Kirillovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Trudovoye and Berdyansk of the Zaporizhzhia region during the day.

◽️ In addition, nine HIMARS rockets were intercepted in the areas of Chervonopopovka of the Luhansk People's Republic and Novaya Kakhovka of the Kherson region.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 20:49 utc | 66

Steven Starr no. 14

I believe Russia fabricated a bomb many years ago with a very large TNT capacity.

Aslangeo no. 16

Truss said she would use nuclear weapons. Good job she's gone.

Unimperator no. 18

Exactly: use them all at once or none at all.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 20:49 utc | 67

Does anyone really believe there is such a thing as a tactical nuclear weapon?!

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 17:57 utc | 2

Probably the same audience that believes in the veracity of the American lunar landing, that a bunch of randoms with box cutters took down the Twin Towers, and that COVID rationally necessitated global lockdowns and massive wealth transfers.

To anyone who does believe in nuclear mythology (the lifeblood of endless Hollywood thrillers about 'nuclear suitcases' and doomsday scenarios by 'bad guys'), please go look at Nagasaki and Hiroshima, 20 years after the bombing. Do those look like nuclear wastelands to you? Do they look like they are unlivable? Contaminated for decades?

All of that hiding under my desk at school during Cold War drills ... It's almost comical now.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 3 2023 20:52 utc | 68

@58 now drones drop grenades on single soldiers. How's that for energy efficiency?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 3 2023 20:53 utc | 69

@60.

A kreminna offensive has been on deck for a while and presents a terrific opportunity for a successful russian counter offensive. Keep the troops in defensive positions and trap them against a river or urban area.

Like wise a russian retreat from strategic centers in luhansk is a recipe for defeat.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 3 2023 20:57 utc | 70

@catdog 60
Ukrainians are planning a massive offensive on Kreminna.
Here's an excellent map, zoom in to see Kremennaya, west of Rubezhnoye.
I'm assuming it's the right place. I'm not used to so many spelling variations for the same town. Who is?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 3 2023 21:07 utc | 71

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 3 2023 20:52 utc | 68
«please go look at Nagasaki and Hiroshima, 20 years after the bombing. Do those look like nuclear wastelands to you? Do they look like they are unlivable? Contaminated for decades? All of that hiding under my desk at school during Cold War drills ... It's almost comical now.»

And here I think there is a confirmed case of delusionism unfortunately: it depends a lot on the type of bomb and how high it is set to explode. The early bombs were puny and set to explode very high, typical for massacring civilians in cities. When the bombs are set to explode near ground level or at impact, to take out missile silos or military installations, things are very different.

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 21:22 utc | 72

"..What we (as I was then a cog in this machine) found was that the strength of the Soviet Union’s Red Army had been massively exaggerated in all our intelligence estimates, on which defence strategy had been based for decades. We had over-estimated the numbers, the mobility and above all the capability of Soviet weapons systems. Much of it was barely functional; the problems with both quality and maintenance were not just the product of the disintegration of the Soviet system, they evidently went back decades.».." Blissex@44 quoting Craig Murray.

There was nothing new in Murray's 'discoveries.' Both the USSR and the Peace movement in the west had been arguing for years/decades that the Red Army had shrunk into a garrison force plus, because it had no intention of attacking the West or anywhere else.
The central lie of the Cold War-that the USSR was aggressive and that the peoples of the NATO had to arm themselves to the teeth to defend themselves- was inly sustained by massive propaganda campaigns of precisely the kind that now, again, claims that Russia is an aggressor and that massive military expenditure is needed to defend against it.
What Murray confirms is that he went along with the anti-communist propaganda (if he had not he would never have got into the FO leave alone won consistent promotions) until it was no longer necessary to do so, at which point he discovered that what everyone to the left of Woodrow Wyatt had long known, had argued in every available forum (the Labour Party was finally persuaded to leave NATO in 1960) and which was the central claim of the anti- Cruise missile protests in the 1980s.
It was, among others, the sainted JFK who won election in 1960 partly by claiming that Eisenhower, Nixon and the Republicans underestimated Soviet power and that "Defense" budgets (of the sort referred to by Ike in his farewell address) needed to be increased.
Let us be very clear: the Soviet Union had run down its military because it was unaffordable if the USSR was to invest its surplus in education, health and other programmes desired by the public.
The Cold War was one long campaign to make the Soviet Union spend more of its sparse resources (after WW II) on the wasteful capital destructive Permanent Arms Economy.
Murray ought to re-evaluate the personal past in which he still delights: to have been a British Ambassador specialising in Cold War politics is nothing to be proud of.
Britain today is paying the price of decades of spending, since 1945, on a totally useless defence sector which no longer even subsidises an aviation and shipbuilding industry. It is a fact that at the time of the Korean war, when it peaked, the UK was spending per capita between two and three times what the US was spending. This level of expenditure went on until the seventies, most of it on nasty and sordid campaigns to steal the last fruits of empire from places like Yemen, Malaya, Kenya and other 'colonies' and protectorates. And then there were the UK's disgraceful participations in the imperial war of the US and South Africa- prostituting a people which is now sliding into poverty after their 'family silver' had been pawned for holidays in Texas and Cape Cod.
There were reasons why the Foreign Office was unable to recruit widely among the graduates of British Universities when Craig was joining them- one was that most people with the brains to tell the time found that their consciences prevented them from even considering work for the Empire.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 3 2023 21:22 utc | 73

Followup to MOD Summary (03.01.2023)

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):

355 airplanes,
199 helicopters,
2,807(+15) unmanned aerial vehicles,
399 air defense missile systems, (Note, each AD Radar destroyed, no (soviet pre '91) spares/replacements, is effectively: Unclaimed Kills)
7,382(+16) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
967(+10) combat vehicles equipped with MRLS,
3,768(+5) field artillery cannons and mortars,
7,900(+24) units of special military equipment.

Comment:

Very significant quantities of AFVs, Arty/Mortars/MBLRS & logistics vehicles were again destroyed over preceding 24 hrs. This rate of materiel attrition has now been elevated for 11 days straight. Significantly higher rates than the norm of AFU casualties will therefore also parallel this elevated attrition re KIA/WIA since Dec2322.

Significant numbers of missiles & drones are now (last 72 hrs) specifically targeting actual AFU military assets. AFU formations, entrenched positions, military stores/materiel & armaments/reinforcements at embarkation/unloading & forming-up/assembly. Lesser numbers allocated to Ukraine infrastructure targets. This indicates probable RF ongoing post strike Damage Assessments considers AFU infrastructure (electrical grid/railway assets) sufficiently neutralized(diminishing returns), only requiring periodic further destruction re modest repair/recovery rates.

Overall comment & assessment: No Change. See: 'Ukraine Open Thread 2023-02' - Outraged | Jan 1 2023 15:02 utc | 11

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 21:27 utc | 74

Aslangeo no. 16

The Col Mcgregor link was interesting, thankyou. The most profound thing McGregor said was "I'd be horrified to live in Singapore".

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 21:30 utc | 75

All of that hiding under my desk at school during Cold War drills ... It's almost comical now.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 3 2023 20:52 utc | 68

A Circus is a place where there usually is comedy. :-)

But notice, the usage of masks caught on rather well. One news broadcast and they will be on the faces in a blink.

Much is being hidden about those mushroom events in Japan. The same rinse job will be done on the Pandemic That Almost Ended The World. Fauci is guaranteed to be a Super Hero in the future comics.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Jan 3 2023 21:32 utc | 76

Don Bacon | Jan 3 2023 21:07 utc | 71

Google maps have Ukraine spelling or even different Ukrainian names. Russians use the Russian names and spelling. When I cannot find a named place I go to Yandex maps which has the Russian place names.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2023 21:35 utc | 77

I remember playing a massive game online once, where our team built up resources and military and could barely hold the line. The enemy army seemed endless.

But we did hold the line. And then they broke. Because they put so much on the attack, they didn't have as many supplies as we did.

That point right before the breaking point is where we see Ukraine now. "Wow, it seems they can just keep filling the trenches!" No.

Or a more adult simile: The man who has a lot of money, until suddenly he doesn't, because he had to sell all he had to get that money.

Posted by: Tenet | Jan 3 2023 21:44 utc | 78

"First, about "red lines," it seems to me that just as the US actively tried to goad Russia into more direct action in Ukraine..."

Cabe | Jan 3 2023 17:41 utc | 1
_____

Yes, and the US frequently uses red lines as preludes to false-flag attacks as it did twice in Syria with chemical weapons attacks, staged to incriminate Assad and justify US missile attacks. These were methodically exposed by forensics, OPCW whistleblowers, and of course self-evident logic.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jan 3 2023 21:44 utc | 79

Outraged @66

Are you/the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation saying that today, 4 HIMARS - Launchers were destroyed by the Russian army near Donezk? That would amount to - what? Half of the HIMARS - Launchers left from the 15-20 that were delivered over the summer?

If so - was that pure luck, or has Russia found a way to locate and destroy them systematically?

Posted by: Marvin | Jan 3 2023 21:53 utc | 80

catdog | Jan 3 2023 20:26 utc | 60

The way Ukraine is again throwing cannon fodder into the frontlines like some moths back if it is again to save up trained men and material for another offensive. Either way it will make no difference. Russian forces were very low on manpower last time. Time around the Russians have defensive lines in depth and plenty of manpower and heavy weapons. If Ukraine, make that US UK are preparing another offensive, my thought is Russia will wait for that to come and destroy it from defensive positions and then launch its own offensive.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2023 22:00 utc | 81

Blissex @24

Thank you for revealing these terroristic but well-funded and positioned sites from the enemies of humanity.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 22:13 utc | 82

aristodemos #6

Russia has a long stated policy of no first nukes. Hypersonic missiles relieve them from even considering what amounts to a multiplicatively inferior resolution in using the brash alternative.

Thank you. As I see it the only equivalent to Russian explosive power missiles is the good old USA nuke and they are desperate to use them. First the have to bleat every day about how Vlad is about to use one. Day after day the USA bleats on about nukes and they have friends doing same here at MoA.

Just like every other whining USA BS it wont stop.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 3 2023 22:14 utc | 83

Blissex@27

When you forward these screeds from the Guardian, please make it clear to the readers that "Guardian" was totally compromised and taken over by MI6 several years ago. Thus, in bald contrast to their former level of integrity; that publication has devolved into nothing more than a propaganda medium controlled by MI6 and ultimately the Rottenchild Bank in city of London.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 22:18 utc | 84

Posted by: Marvin | Jan 3 2023 21:53 utc | 80
Suppose the MOD was lying about the HIMARS being destroyed. It would be impossible to disprove. After the embarrassment of once again presenting a primo target for the hohols to destroy, the MOD is also incentivized to lie.

I would love it if the himhers were indeed taken out as they've been a major nuisance, the only successful western wunderwaffe, and caused the loss of Kherson. I suppose we will only know if/when they stop appearing in the news.

Posted by: Tenet | Jan 3 2023 21:44 utc | 78
At the current rate of hundreds/day killed it will take a very, very long time before Ukraine runs out of men. They will run out of material first, but the west controls the tap on that- more or less could come in. Flooding the country with thousands of Bradleys, Strykers and Abrams is still an option. With the news from pro-RU sources that Russia really is running out of artillery shells, the strategy of simply atriting the enemy seems doubtful.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 3 2023 22:21 utc | 85

uncle tungsten @83

"Right On", as we declared back in the resistance movements in the latter '60's. There are, indeed, various posters who invade MoA on a regular basis who serve as propaganda broadsheets for the control mechanisms. Those intel agencies and suchlike also have posters who pop in only on occasion to spread doubt and uncertainty amongst those of us who constitute a center of resistance to the agendas of those who work for the chosen ones from among the elites who would be total world masters.

In other words, these bought and paid-for bass-turds are ubiquitous and what's more, they are everywhere.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 22:23 utc | 86

Apes, when perceiving themselves as threatened, scream with a scream peculiar to their tribe and throw lumps of shit around. This draws other tribe members to them to offering support to the frightened ones and sharing in raising a shit storm.

So many trolls. So many floods of words, like torrid turds, all plagiarized from Russiaphobes and hegemonic sources.

Apparently Russia is doing something right, or our troll brigade would not be so extraordinarily motivated to scream and toss turds around.

A Shitty Sonnet for the Troll Army

Having nothing better to do
Frightened trolls took to flinging poo
Scraped from The Economist and Guardian too
Something only desperate apes will do

But then their shrill obnoxious screams
Attracted further quarter-witted teams
Antivaxxers, spirochetic conspiracy nuts
Dunning-Kruger spewing from their butts

Seeking mutual masturbatory comforts
They publicly pull on each other's bits
Drowning out all those better equipped
To deal with their rank class of shit

There is no company, no bar, no shady dive
That welcomes trolls, dead or alive.

Envoi!

That's because their decaying brains
Emit the reek of malodorous drains.

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 3 2023 22:31 utc | 87

@ Hermit | Jan 3 2023 22:31 utc | 87

lol.. that's pretty good hermit and funny too...

Posted by: james | Jan 3 2023 22:38 utc | 88

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jan 3 2023 20:49 utc | 67
«Truss said she would use nuclear weapons.»

Technically the UK, any UK prime minister, have a "first strike" policy, but here is some context on that:

Tony Blair on the UK nuclear weapons:
«"The expense is huge, and the utility in a post-Cold War world is less in terms of deterrence, and non-existent in terms of military use. [...]
It is true that it is frankly inconceivable we would use our nuclear deterrent alone, without the US

What he really meant is that the UK *cannot* use them without USA government permission, because all the UK strategic delivery systems are USA supplied with USA-controlled kill switches.

https://www.economist.com/international/2011/04/07/something-wrong-with-our-chips-today?story_id=18527456
«Wesley Clark, a retired general who once headed NATO's forces, says that “rampant” fears of kill switches make American-backed defence co-operation agreements a harder sell.»

BTW the same article from an authoritative "Washington Consensus" source as "The Economist" reports also even non-military equipment from the USA is riddled with traps:

«IN THE 1991 Gulf war Iraq's armed forces used American-made colour photocopiers to produce their battle plans. That was a mistake. The circuitry in some of them contained concealed transmitters that revealed their position to American electronic-warfare aircraft, making bomb and missile strikes more precise. [...] America has launched schemes such as the Trusted Foundry Programme, which certifies “secure, domestic” facilities for the manufacture of the most critical microchips. The Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), a Pentagon outfit devoted to expanding the military's technological abilities, will spend at least $20m this year on ways to identify rogue microchips. The Army Research Office is holding a closed conference on kill switches in mid-April. [...] A European defence official says even video surveillance cameras can intercept or disrupt communications.»

Posted by: Blissex | Jan 3 2023 22:41 utc | 89

@Marvin 80

Russia has perfected the use of seismic analysis to precisely locate and automatically aim - and correct - counter battery fire.

From a Ukrainian weapon being fired to return fire is under two minutes, which is less than the minimum time required to move an artillery piece or rocket launcher far enough to be out of the POK for the incoming Russian fire.

The real beauty of this passive system is that it cannot be jammed and has no emissions, and so, unlike US radar and radio based fire detection systems, is not susceptible to jamming or anti-radiation measures (HARM missiles).

Posted by: Hermit | Jan 3 2023 22:44 utc | 90

@ Marvin | Jan 3 2023 21:53 utc | 80

Not much luck involved.

RF has been, as an elevated priority, aggressively seeking out & committing effective destructive fires on AFU Arty/MBRLS systems over the last eleven days, that have been targeting civilians in Donetsk City & environs with ongoing destruction & harassing fires. Also replacement batteries redeployed/re-allocated or brought forward to replace said ongoing losses. See previous reports.

This is clearly a directed campaign by RF & not accidental or merely luck. Drones & multiple counter battery detection systems have been allocated to these tasks. Loitering Lancet Strike/ISR drones are directed to the detected firing locales within minutes and then perform an ever expanding spiral search pattern to spot the 'scooting'(post shooting) systems on the move or in process of redeploying to/in alternate nearby prepared firing positions(camouflaged, defensive blast berms, pre-positioned ammunition).

Lancet then goes boom. Lancet live feed & targeting data supplied results in prompt execution of precise destructive Battery Fires, ready, 'on call', for this priority task. Big-Bada-Booms ... daily. Rinse & repeat.

From above Mod report:

💥 As a result of missile and air strikes against a cluster of military equipment near the Druzhkivka railway station in the Donetsk People's Republic, two US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers; four Czech-made RM-70 Vampire multiple rocket launcher vehicles; over 800 multiple rocket launchers rockets; six vehicles, as well as up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed.

💥 In the course of counter-battery warfare near Kramatorsk, two US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, which had been used to shell populated areas of the Donetsk People's Republic, were uncovered and destroyed.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 22:44 utc | 91

"The Cold War was one long campaign to make the Soviet Union spend more of its sparse resources (after WW II) on the wasteful capital destructive Permanent Arms Economy."

Posted by: bevin | Jan 3 2023 21:22 utc | 73

***

This is pretty much imperialism's global strategy against socialism in any form, from the USSR to China, Cuba, Venezuela. To "make the economy scream", as Kissinger put it of Chile.

When people think of what Lenin wrote in The State and Revolution, almost everyone fixates on the first chapters defining the state as organized, armed force wielded by a ruling class. Far more important are the later sections on the economic basis for the withering away of the state—developing the forces of production to the point of true abundance. Capitalism is all about scarcity and its currencies are measures of relative scarcity; with abundance not only will the state no longer be necessary but money too will wither away.

Economic warfare, sabotage, arms races and often enough outright invasion—capitalism, even when it can't destroy socialist societies seeks to delay and distort their development of productive forces (building socialism) and mire them in scarcity. This also prolongs conditions favorable for subversion (scarcity means markets and money) but also allows capitalist propaganda to proclaim to many who unrealistically expect instant utopias, "Look, where has a socialist state ever withered away?"

It took capitalism several attempts over a few centuries to become dominant globally, with lots of organized, armed force along the way. The USSR survived long enough to pass the revolutionary torch to China. The Communist Party of China, learning from Soviet strengths and weaknesses both, is forcing capitalism to adhere to its historical mission of building up the forces of production to abundance rather than be hijacked to neoliberal financialization as in the West. And the BRI is taking this building of abundance global, continent by continent pulling the rug out from Euro-US colonialism as we breathe.

We are at a historical turning point. We are already seeing the US be the one to suffer from sparse resources due to its Permanent Arms Economy. One way or another the Empire will crack, perhaps sooner than many of us think.


Posted by: Vintage Red | Jan 3 2023 22:45 utc | 92

Outraged | Jan 3 2023 22:44 utc | 91

I read not long back about a new Russian counter battery system. Passive detection, I think optical and acoustic and linked up to artillery or whatever. Five seconds from detection to counter fire.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2023 22:48 utc | 93

Must have been a slow day in the war, not many links to interesting actual military engagements or developments. Well, I have 12+ inches of new snow to deal with, some of it drifted into nearly meter high piles so I should do some work instead of perusing the verbiage here...

Posted by: DakotaRog | Jan 3 2023 22:53 utc | 94

@ Hermit | Jan 3 2023 22:44 utc | 90
@ Outraged | Jan 3 2023 22:44 utc | 91

Timestamps. Complimentary synchronicity. :)

Cheers & prost!

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 22:54 utc | 95

Paddy@45

"Biden may not be rational"...not to worry about that state of affairs, as Biden is kept extremely far from the nuclear football and has absolutely no agency, beyond protecting his wayward son and his own many corrupt manifestations from over the decades. The U$$A has had no president with actual agency since the Agency assassinated JFK on 11-22-63. The primarily Khazarians and various Yankee elites who create a net around Biden, themselves have very little actual agency.

Most decision-making emanates from the Rottenchild Bank in City of London. However, their level of control is likely not absolute within the U.$.

Though, superficially in the Pentagon Matrix, it is not unlikely that there are highly trusted staffers, likely mostly Colonels and Brigadier Generals, who remain loyal to the Constitution at some level or another. They serve as braking mechanisms on the higher ranking Brown-Nosers who achieved political pinnacles due to their propensity to follow unlawful orders spewing out of the White House. My suspicion is also that even though the Agency mostly works for the elite agenda, there are individuals within that hall of mirrors who are clearheaded and thus unwilling to be part of what would be a nuclear holocaust, for at least the Northern Hemisphere.

So my take is that there are cool heads within those two powerful institutions and that elementary survival instincts are urging them towards infusing basic caution within their respective institutions. One can dismiss any agency being held by the Department of $tate in the U.$. That may be quite fortunate for the fate of humanity, as $tate is under total domination by NeoCons and other Talmudist agenda trash .

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 22:58 utc | 96

Thinking about acoustic anti battery detection. That would have to be ground acoustics/detection as artillery shells are faster than sound in the atmosphere. This would detect the position at time of firing or launch rather than when it comes into line of sight for radar or optical detection. Triangulation could be used rather than calculating ballistic trajectory back to launch point.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2023 22:59 utc | 97

@ Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2023 22:48 utc | 93

Indeed.

The passive 'Penicillin' system & others have been committed over past fortnight, previously along with other first rate systems held in reserve re potential US/NATO ground commitment(IMV). Also were held back to avoid ISR Elint collection whilst in operation by Empire.

The counter battery destructive Fires are held ready,'on call', until precise co-ordinates of detected tubes/launchers are determined. The barrage is a follow-up to the immediately prior Live feed & Lancet suicidal strike. Effectively instant kills or at least neutralization as if the targets new positions had been pre-registered for on-call Fires. Devastating. Without functional AD nor aviation assets, AFU has no counter.

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 23:06 utc | 98

catdog@85

:...thousands of Bradleys, Strykers and Abrams". Ridiculous on the face of it. The Pentagram does not possess thousands of those wunderwaffen which they can spare. Then there's the little matter of getting them across the Polish and/or Romanian borders without most of them being intercepted and magically transformed into lumps of scrap-iron.

It would seem that you are employing organs a bit further down your corpus from your brain. Mind you, Unkel $hmuel is hardly the source for endless elements of superior weaponry.

Are you actually on the side of the enemies of common humanity...or just a tad ignorant?

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 3 2023 23:08 utc | 99

Posted by: Outraged | Jan 3 2023 22:44 utc | 91

The MoD claims that the the HIMARs and czechen Grad clones were destroyed while unloading from a train, so it is unlikely that counterbattery systems had anything to do with it.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 3 2023 23:12 utc | 100

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