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Size Matters – On A U.S. Ground Intervention In Ukraine
A European financial research company has sent me one of their quarterly research letters. It is a 'contrarian review of political and military ramifications' of the war in Ukraine. It analyzes 'winners and losers' of the war.
It is contrarian only in the sense that it counters the false views of 'western' mainstream media with reality. The losers of the war are all on the 'western' side with the only two winners being the owners of the U.S. defense industry and Russia.
I was sent the courtesy copy because, as the company writes, the discussions at Moon of Alabama were "immensely helpful" in forming their view.
Note to the authors: You are welcome.
I will not quote from the paper as it seems to be a somewhat confidential business product. But I will steal two graphics from it that will help to understand the size of the war in Ukraine and how it will NOT end.
There have been theories that Poland or some U.S. led coalition force would intervene with their troops on the ground in Ukraine to 'kick the Russians out'.
The two graphics though dispel any hope for such an operation.
The following is an operational map of Desert Storm. The U.S. led operation in spring 1991 to kick Iraq out of Kuwait.
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It took the U.S. some nine month to assemble a forces of some 700,000 U.S. and 250,000 allied troops with all their equipment. Iraq had an estimated 650,000 troops in the theater. The U.S. first created total air superiority by destroying Iraq's fighter aircraft and air defense forces. With that done it took only 100 hours of ground operation to destroy a third of the Iraqi forces. The rest of the Iraqi army retreated under fire towards Baghdad.
There are some 550,000 Russian troops in and around Ukraine. A hypothetical operation to 'kick Russia out' would thereby have about the same size as Desert Storm. But the geographic dimensions differ drastically.
The following is an operational map of Desert Storm from above overlaid in scale on the map of Ukraine.
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The map was turned to the left by 90 degree. North is to the left, east at the top and Crimea in the south to the right.
Russia occupies some 87,000 square kilometer of Ukraine. The Desert Storm theater around Kuwait was five times smaller.
A hypothetical U.S. coalition of the size of Desert Storm could probably cross the Dnieper and cut of Crimea. But it could do little more than that. The Donetz and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea itself would still be in Russian hands.
But there are many reasons why no such operation will ever be planned and executed.
- The U.S. no longer has a force of the size it committed to Desert Storm. Nor do its allies.
- The U.S. was able to create air superiority in Iraq because it could fly from nearby Saudi airfields and from aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. Air superiority in eastern Ukraine could only be achieved with the destruction of long range air-defenses within Russia. The next safe air fields the U.S. could use are in Poland and Romania. No U.S. aircraft carrier will dare to enter the Black Sea. U.S. fighter planes to not have the necessary reach for combat missions in eastern Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian rail system is by now a mess. It is incapable of moving a large force from the west into east Ukraine.
- Any attempt to move a large force through Ukraine would be subject to deep battle interdiction by Russian and Belorussian forces.
- Iraqi equipment was badly maintained and Iraqi forces were barely trained. Russia has a well trained high tech army.
I could go on but you can certainly see the point.
No U.S. ground troops will move into Ukraine. It is ludicrous to think otherwise.
Wow brilliant analogy using the Kuwait allied offensive as analog battle to scale on Ukraine. Super way to put everything into proper realistic perspective, and indeed, clown world NATO looks pathetic, nothing could be finer, yes Sir. Bravo Mr MOA! Bravo Man.
Hey, there is the looming possibility, very possible, of dropping every bridge across the Dnieper River, which it appears the RF are saving for the moment it will achieve maximum strat-tac effect on the khazarian mafia’s loyal invaders and their ukronazi tools. After those bridges are down there is no way any effective reinforcement crosses because the Russians will have total air dominance, all set to chop to pieces any crossing attempt, probably by adding to that effect the tactics of leaving one or two bridges up, or for river crossing actions, allowing just enough Abrams and support to cross then cut off its tail and pick it all off in detail, sitting there alone on the left bank, without any effective resupply to speak of. ZOg brother I can just see it, Lets play the game of Abrams plinking Russian style, and to rub salt in that would, why not dedicate a hypersonic kinetic per Abrams Leopard and Bradley, you know, “…nuke them from orbit, just to be sure.”
Thats what I would do. Let the Rothchild lunatics order NATO to attack, they hate Putin enough to do it, (the ultimate in political control of a military, ultimate centralized control, the absolute worst scenario for an attack against Russian forces, let globo=peedo clown world run things, they been doing a marvelous job to date so don’t stop them, which events have proven so far, just as the short feller said, don’t stop your enemy when he’s making a mistake)… because somebody has to pull out the name stealers teeth once and for all. Once NATO is a true and complete paper tiger, then its terror and reprisal operations are basically without its vast US/Brit dot mil support system and they begin to loose effective ability to run their regime change/color revolution and 5th-6th column operations, ie withering on the vine. All if for only one reason, to give all the little pumpernickel principalities and other small-medium nation states breathing space to get rid of all the cabal regimes and installed client organized crime oligarch’s controlling them, and their peoples are able to regain natural national sovereignty.
In other-words, a cascade failure/preference cascade event ensues across the west, is possible and the khazarian institutional order starts its collapse.
There’s still the massive surveillance machine, but that its end has to be brought about by the good folks in every country it infects, cause its such an insidious evil, never mind its vast ranks of gangstalkers LARPs and glowies, but they too depend on an endless stream of filthy lucre and wealth transfer, so follow the money is the best medicine for destroying the network. Kills a lot of birds with a few stones, even ends the vast child trafficking conduit system which supllies the ultimate drug, and when the adreno-chrome supply dwindles to the point only the most wealthy or connected/protected who are still alive can get it, a lot of cascade collapses come natural.
The Russians have saved the world already I think, long as the lunatics don’t decide if they can not control the world there will be no world and begin nooklear Armageddon. Or Ragnorak, because they think themselves the gods and hate GOD.
Woh! What a time to be living in! Will the khazarians finally be defeated? Somehow I believe, I got faith us good folks in this world prevail in the end.
As the Russians say OooRah!
Posted by: mtnforge | Jan 30 2023 17:51 utc | 49
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