Size Matters - On A U.S. Ground Intervention In Ukraine
A European financial research company has sent me one of their quarterly research letters. It is a 'contrarian review of political and military ramifications' of the war in Ukraine. It analyzes 'winners and losers' of the war.
It is contrarian only in the sense that it counters the false views of 'western' mainstream media with reality. The losers of the war are all on the 'western' side with the only two winners being the owners of the U.S. defense industry and Russia.
I was sent the courtesy copy because, as the company writes, the discussions at Moon of Alabama were "immensely helpful" in forming their view.
Note to the authors: You are welcome.
I will not quote from the paper as it seems to be a somewhat confidential business product. But I will steal two graphics from it that will help to understand the size of the war in Ukraine and how it will NOT end.
There have been theories that Poland or some U.S. led coalition force would intervene with their troops on the ground in Ukraine to 'kick the Russians out'.
The two graphics though dispel any hope for such an operation.
The following is an operational map of Desert Storm. The U.S. led operation in spring 1991 to kick Iraq out of Kuwait.
bigger
It took the U.S. some nine month to assemble a forces of some 700,000 U.S. and 250,000 allied troops with all their equipment. Iraq had an estimated 650,000 troops in the theater. The U.S. first created total air superiority by destroying Iraq's fighter aircraft and air defense forces. With that done it took only 100 hours of ground operation to destroy a third of the Iraqi forces. The rest of the Iraqi army retreated under fire towards Baghdad.
There are some 550,000 Russian troops in and around Ukraine. A hypothetical operation to 'kick Russia out' would thereby have about the same size as Desert Storm. But the geographic dimensions differ drastically.
The following is an operational map of Desert Storm from above overlaid in scale on the map of Ukraine.
bigger
The map was turned to the left by 90 degree. North is to the left, east at the top and Crimea in the south to the right.
Russia occupies some 87,000 square kilometer of Ukraine. The Desert Storm theater around Kuwait was five times smaller.
A hypothetical U.S. coalition of the size of Desert Storm could probably cross the Dnieper and cut of Crimea. But it could do little more than that. The Donetz and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea itself would still be in Russian hands.
But there are many reasons why no such operation will ever be planned and executed.
- The U.S. no longer has a force of the size it committed to Desert Storm. Nor do its allies.
- The U.S. was able to create air superiority in Iraq because it could fly from nearby Saudi airfields and from aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. Air superiority in eastern Ukraine could only be achieved with the destruction of long range air-defenses within Russia. The next safe air fields the U.S. could use are in Poland and Romania. No U.S. aircraft carrier will dare to enter the Black Sea. U.S. fighter planes to not have the necessary reach for combat missions in eastern Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian rail system is by now a mess. It is incapable of moving a large force from the west into east Ukraine.
- Any attempt to move a large force through Ukraine would be subject to deep battle interdiction by Russian and Belorussian forces.
- Iraqi equipment was badly maintained and Iraqi forces were barely trained. Russia has a well trained high tech army.
I could go on but you can certainly see the point.
No U.S. ground troops will move into Ukraine. It is ludicrous to think otherwise.
Posted by b on January 30, 2023 at 16:23 UTC | Permalink
next page »No U.S. aircraft carrier will dare to enter the Black Sea
Have to be < 15,000 tonnes to qualify under Montreux Convention 1936. I doubt it would survive Bastion.
Russian aircraft have - for obvious reasons - a much longer operational range than US planes.
Zircon and DF-100 would be tested on US carriers worldwide
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jan 30 2023 16:32 utc | 2
Your explanation and logic are correct, I am sure. Though, did you take into consideration a senile president not in control? Have you pondered which group/force is behind this and do they control the president. Have you wondered and thought how inept the American congress is? There is movement about to erect monuments to zelinsky. One only needs to tune in to listen to the weak and lacking ability of congressional members. Crying out loud, they sent an old lady, pelosi, to threaten China. You used the word ludicrous. You are right it describes so much. The American public is solid behind this war. They continue to be the easiest group to bamboozle. They have been bamboozled into one war after the other since Korea.
Posted by: charles shamey | Jan 30 2023 16:35 utc | 3
thanks b...
the comparison is interesting but it breaks down quickly and is a fail as i see it.. but they do note the winners here - usa defense industry and russia, although russia is paying in blood and the usa has yet to... thanks for sharing this.. i share your viewpoint at the end..
Posted by: james | Jan 30 2023 16:37 utc | 4
I agree, it is ludicrous to suggest it. Unfortunately, the US has been doing ludicrous things for quite some time now. Each time thinking to itself, this time it'll be different.
Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Jan 30 2023 16:39 utc | 5
I agree, there is unlikely to be an official NATO ground force ever. Or at least until Russia's capacity to fight is significantly reduced.
It will be a sustained guerrilla warfare response, as they have already demonstrated. Sabotage and death by 1000 cuts. Russia will be forced to respond by increasing domestic security measures. The west will force Russia to become more draconian and increase public surveillance. The domestic population will not be happy.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 30 2023 16:42 utc | 6
And that's if the US can land troops in Europe. I seem to remember that was a pretty big deal in WW2. Let's hope the US is not foolish enough to attempt the same thing again.
Posted by: RZ | Jan 30 2023 16:44 utc | 7
"There are some 550,000 Russian troops in and around Ukraine."
That is today. Putin already announced plans to mobilize a 1.5 million size army. (Of broken toy soldiers)
The entire time the US is building for its war, so will Russia prepare. Along with China, Iran, & every other nation we've chosen to make into enemies.
The neocons are not just psychopaths. They're schizoid psychopaths, completely split from reality.
The US military continues to get big contracts. It will be something to see how they fulfill those contracts, cut off from critical resources & with a collapsing economy.
Posted by: Mary | Jan 30 2023 16:47 utc | 8
"It analyzes 'winners and looser' of the war."
"Winners and looser?" Does the majority of the population not know the difference between 'loose' and 'lose'?
Every day I see this.
Posted by: Peter Hegger | Jan 30 2023 16:49 utc | 9
Add the F16s to Ukraine to this scenario. For many of the same reasons no significant F16 force will be actually sent to Ukraine.
Ameticans are still living thos fantasy that their F16s are worth a damn in 2023. When in reality a midgrade AA system of today would make an F16 no fly zone. Not to mention Russia has top of the line AA.
Americans have been watching too many hollywood movies like too gun.
With 100% certainty the F16 sending to Ukraine will be a PR social media move if amything at all.
Posted by: Comandante | Jan 30 2023 16:49 utc | 10
in 1990 the cold war order of battle was not demobilized, in 2023 the usa has the same old tech, in smaller numbers, and with less durability, bc it engaged in f-35 (army future combat system no new vehicles) disarmament by cost overrun, schedule delays and untested capacities.
amateurs talk about f-16's and abrams tanks.....
professionals talk about the massive tail needed to keep those things working.
gen pagonis in charge of logistics for desert storm inducted an 'iron mountain' of ordnance and spare parts, as well as a safe network to distribute huge amounts of fuel for the operations.
in a longer distance enterprise the fuel depots need to be mobile as the tanks and....... an investment not made.
Posted by: paddy | Jan 30 2023 16:52 utc | 11
@ Peter Hegger | Jan 30 2023 16:49 utc | 9
b doesn't use spell correct and his first language is german... don't loose your shite, and stay loose, lol...
Posted by: james | Jan 30 2023 16:53 utc | 12
A European financial research company..writes, the discussions at Moon of Alabama were "immensely helpful" in forming their view.
sweet!
Posted by: annie | Jan 30 2023 16:55 utc | 13
Just cause it's ludicrous doesn't mean it will not be attempted in some form or fashion, see recent past and the present, lots of lunacy abound in clownworld.
Posted by: knighthawk | Jan 30 2023 16:56 utc | 14
Indeed b.
It is simply a ludicrous non starter. Post on this often.
Current NATO high readiness forces amount to ~9 Brigades, widely dispersed. ! US Airborne Division, again Brigades dispersed.
The NATO High alert reaction force is in theory a Division multi-nation force that would take over 48hrs to respond to activation, yet is simply not combat ready/capable nor actually deployable. NATO operable armaments, ammunition stores, etc ? Ha!
Functional, secure, logistical train, of required capacity to support the necessary sized forces ? Pft.
US/NATO only have distant memories, two decades now, of high intensity combined arms operations. Reminiscences are no substitute for muscle memory doctrine, training, planning, operations or tactics thereof.
NATO has zero credible capability to suppress let alone destroy RFs integrated/layered in depth RuAF supported AD.
The Reserve Merchant Marine Sealift is, kaput!
RF has upwards of 50 full Divisions, plus support & dozens of Brigades on readiness alert ... NOT involved in the SMO. 12 more raised full divisions in reserve still yet uncommitted to the SMO.
They currently have the only first world Army with a years worth of combat experienced veterans, lessons learned.
The math is pretty easy. The requirements fundamentally unmet & unachievable for years to come.
ZERO non Black Sea coast nations naval vessels, of any kind, are permitted through the Bosphoros whilst a conflict is in progress.
Turkiye administers the Convention & has enforced it from the commencement of hostilities.
The F35 is an excellent weapon - for a one-way kamikaze first strike using B61 nukes or stand off missiles. It doesn't have the range for a return trip, and the bases it took of from will likely no longer exist assuming they were to make it back (as an aside, the F35 isn't particularly stealthy from the rear, particularly to IR, and of course any refueling assets are unlikely to be very stealthy)
Posted by: Simplicius | Jan 30 2023 17:02 utc | 16
paddy @11 "professionals talk about the massive tail needed to keep those things working."
Let's hope they talk loudly and somebody in Washington is listening.
Posted by: dh | Jan 30 2023 17:04 utc | 17
In terms of ludicrous, here's an event scheduled for tomorrow at the EU parliament:
For many who have experienced Russian oppression in the past, the war in Ukraine can only end when the Russian Federation is completely repulsed and defeated. In order to finally remove the threat to peace that the Russian Federation still poses, the international community should seek a re-federalisation of the Russian state.
Posted by: Zet | Jan 30 2023 17:05 utc | 18
The US only engages in direct conflict against a far weaker opponent. It's preferred method of controlling other states is to work in the shadows - propaganda and psy ops to turn people against their government, support of extremist factions, manipulation of elections, color revolutions, and sanctions. All underhanded and sneaky. The neocons were sure their toolkit would work in Ukraine. The US government is committed to this as long as it doesn't have to confront Russia directly. The US public is committed to this as long as it doesn't come down to thousands of boys coming back in body bags. Otherwise it's one big reality show to entertain. There are descriptors to be used for people who act like the US acts, none of them complimentary.
Posted by: Mike R | Jan 30 2023 17:08 utc | 19
"No U.S. ground troops will move into Ukraine. It is ludicrous to think otherwise". I doubt that statement you are dealing with insane people!!
Posted by: panther | Jan 30 2023 17:11 utc | 20
To the last Ukrainian Russian and assorted Eastern European volunteer.
Posted by: jpc | Jan 30 2023 17:14 utc | 21
The only logic-to use the term loosely- behind such a NATO action would be as a sacrificial lamb in order to justify escalation to a nuclear first strike.
And there are idiots enough in Washington and elsewhere (Kiev in particular) to make it a possibility, remote though it is.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 30 2023 17:15 utc | 22
Finally the Antiwar movement has scheduled marches against supporting Ukraine!!!
rageagainstwar.com
I doubt it will be covered in mainstream news.
Posted by: Peace | Jan 30 2023 17:16 utc | 23
No need for such theoretical war games, Bakhmut will fall in a few days, the war will be over in a few months.
China openly sides with Russia:
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on January 30, 2023
CCTV: It was reported that according to sources, the US government obtained evidence suggesting some Chinese state-owned companies may be providing assistance of an economic as well as non-lethal military nature for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The US government has confronted the Chinese government to see if the latter is aware of that and warned China of the implications of providing material support to Russia. Do you have any comment?
Mao Ning: China’s position on Ukraine has been objective and just. We always stand on the side of peace and have played a constructive role in advancing the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. We are never a bystander, and we would never add fuel to the fire, still less exploit the crisis. The US is the one who started the Ukraine crisis and the biggest factor fueling it, and has kept sending heavy and assault weapons to Ukraine, which has only prolonged and intensified the conflict. Rather than reflecting on its own acts, the US has been sowing paranoia and pointing fingers at China. We reject such groundless blackmail, and we will not sit by and watch the US harm the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.
If the US truly wants an early end to the crisis and cares for the lives of the Ukrainian people, then it needs to stop sending weapons and profiteering from the fighting. The US needs to act responsibly by helping the situation deescalate as soon as possible, and create the necessary environment and conditions for peace talks between the parties concerned.
Posted by: cortomaltese | Jan 30 2023 17:16 utc | 24
Otherwise it's one big reality show to entertain. There are descriptors to be used for people who act like the US acts, none of them complimentary.
Posted by: Mike R | Jan 30 2023 17:08 utc |
Always when the conflict is far away.
All that's missing is MIC sponsorships before the news broadcast to add to the dysfunction of the destruction observed.
Posted by: jpc | Jan 30 2023 17:17 utc | 25
@ 6
Assuming they have the capacity to do so on a truly harmful scale. After all Russia was having whole towns taken hostage & airliners bombed during the wars in the Caucasus.
Nothing changed and the foreign-backed jidahis lost. The RF is stronger now and what happens if western agents and local proxies start getting rounded up?
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 30 2023 17:17 utc | 26
How much delusion does it take to extrapolate from US/UK/NATO in Ukraine as a proxy war against Russia to the latest drum beating about a war between the US and China over Taiwan.
Can empire continue to keep nations buying its worthless fiat US dollars?
Only by dragging the world into more protracted war which is hard to sell. Will Occupied Palestine succeed in dragging the world into war before the West collapses financially because of internal dysfunction?
So far, so good! GO China/Russia/Iran!
Glad to read about your journalism getting serious readership b
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 30 2023 17:18 utc | 27
So cutting off Crimea after crossing the dnieper would suit the US fine. They can continue from there, as they are planning to continue from Poland, the Baltic and Romanian even if ukraine is entirely occupied.
If russia starts nuking nato bases to protect Crimea, the US will still keep trying. The US won't retaliate by nuking russia proper but will work over its military in 1991 ukraine territory, with nukes too. All good nuking those sub human slavs don't ya know.
Wrecking eastern Europe is great for the US, they're too white anyways and the race focused us hates whites now.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 30 2023 17:20 utc | 28
US troops are already on the ground in UkroNaziLand. In November 2022 the Pentagon confirmed active-duty U.S. military are deployed inside Ukraine and have “resumed on-site inspections to assess weapon stocks.”
You can also safely assume that other secret active-duty US military assets are on the ground there as well.
Posted by: Trisha | Jan 30 2023 17:22 utc | 29
one other thing you must consider when comparing Iraq to Ukraine is that the US enforced no-fly zones over almost all of Iraq for 10 years. Operation Northern Watch/Provide Comfort and Operation Southern Watch did more than shoot down anything flying over Iraq, they also took out any Air Defenses foolish enough to turn on the their radar. I don't think there were many days in all those years that ordinance was not expended.
nevertheless, there was still a lot of AA when the balloon went up and US fighters bombed Baghdad.....it was a pretty awesome fireworks show and I am sure many pilots were severely clenched coming in.
as for the stealthy airplanes...kinda funny that the very first aircraft to attack in Desert Storm was that old B-52 and a bunch of F-4s.
so yeah, if anyone truly believes this shitshow can be repeated in Ukraine, they got another think coming
Posted by: dan of steele | Jan 30 2023 17:22 utc | 30
NATO allies like Poland and Romania will also lead to NATO's defeat. These armies as corrupt at the top and the least fit for battle conditions.
Posted by: Wilikins | Jan 30 2023 17:22 utc | 31
Thank you B for posting this. Excellent points but….
Disagree mainly because I think the War Party will spend 2 years building up its ground forces for a glorious counter offensive. Jump off maybe in early 2025
Rough ground force involved 1.5 million;
Kiev - 500,000
EU plus England etc - 450,000
US plus minor vassals - 450,000
Mercs etc - 100,000
Caveat - this glorious counter offensive would only take place if Russia’s periphery was destabilized in 2023/24. The periphery is where the real action will be this year.
Finally - Moscow’s counter is of course De-dollarization.
Posted by: Exile | Jan 30 2023 17:23 utc | 32
one other thing re Iraq. Many of the Iraqi generals had been bought off and simply did not show up for the party. I sincerely doubt the US will have luck getting a Russian general to betray his people.
Posted by: dan of steele | Jan 30 2023 17:25 utc | 33
Hasn't Turkey closed the Bosphorus to military ships in accordance with the Treaty of Montreux?
There will not be any American ships (or non-Black Sea nations) in the Black Sea, unless they transport them by land or by rivers.
Russia could still transfer small ships (corvettes or smaller) via their canals. I think that some Buyan-class corvette was transferred this way from the Caspian.
Posted by: Verdant | Jan 30 2023 17:25 utc | 34
A predominantly Polish ground force may intervene at some point, not to kick the Russians out, but to create a 'safe' haven ('humanitarian corridor') from which the West could essentially support the Ukrainian war effort.
But even this idea is fraught with contradictions. They can't fundamentally do anything much different than what they're already doing in West Ukraine (the border might as well not exist), and if the Russian forces reach Western Ukraine the Poles would be facing an experienced, mobilized, well supplied, and very angry army on non-NATO territory where 'anything goes'.
The only thing worse than losing the war as it is right now would be for a quasi NATO contingent to get erased as well in Ukraine and then lose the war anyway.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 30 2023 17:25 utc | 35
“No U.S. ground troops will move into Ukraine. It is ludicrous to think otherwise.“
That is one of the problems. War has become increasingly impersonal over time due to weapons technology. The US neocons and their international backers have shown that they do not value the humanity of others, as evidenced by their willingness to fight to the last Ukrainian.
WMDs are consistent with their disregard for human life other than their own. And use of WMDs (nuclear or biological) is their ultimate alternative.
Thank you, Bernhard, for both your own contributions and for moderating this forum.
Posted by: Ciaran | Jan 30 2023 17:28 utc | 36
The logistics of a glorious counter offensive are staggering - A NATO light infrantry brigade these days needs 1,400 short tons of supply daily.
Imagine the stores needed to sustain a 30 day big arrow counter offensive with 1.5 million ground troops.
Posted by: Exile | Jan 30 2023 17:28 utc | 37
@Exile
The West will mobilize 1.5 million men over the corpse of Ukraine?
Ukraine will be lucky not to have a 1.5 million men in cemeteries in two years.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 30 2023 17:28 utc | 38
The domestic population will not be happy.Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 30 2023 16:42 utc | 6
This is, of course, the ideal scheme of the "Ostpolitik" of the 1970s, when the injection of American capital had turned West Germany into a showroom of "capitalist happiness" and East Berlin dreamed of Mercedes, bananas and freedom of expression.
Today in Germany, in the West, nothing new, 64% of the population in support of NATO, applauds the sending of tanks.
Russians bad, ethnics Ukrainians in need of "Lebensraum", MeinUnser Kampf
But in the East, 60% are against.
Yes, after 30 years of brainwasching and a big change of population, kind of "ethniccultural cleaning"...
Because who in the East (Russia, China and the others) still wants to live our way of life, capitalist misery, sex, drug and not even acceptable rock&roll?
Who is still dreaming of our "mostly peacefull liberty"?
Yes, of course, the 1% (or even a 10% of Vollidiot). Bunch of Dummies...
Russia has been taking advantage of this for almost a year, to clean its Augias stables.
A lot of "compradores" on the run.
And the domestic population is happy.....
Posted by: Nuremberg | Jan 30 2023 17:30 utc | 39
Looks like the manufactured war with Orwell's Eastasia (Russia and eventually China) will go on and on and the citizens of the West will pay dearly (economically) for it even though we don't want it and never asked for it.
English Labour MP Dan Jarvis tells newspaper that the British army is far to small to be an effective fighting force, of course the British army now only follows in on illegal invasions on the coattails of the USA.
The sooner Russian forces humiliates this lot the easier it will be for Western citizens to tell their respective puppet governments enough is enough.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 30 2023 17:38 utc | 40
Posted by: Zet | Jan 30 2023 17:05 utc | 18
Thanks for the link, but I actually find the event quite frightening since it’s organised by the ruling party of Poland.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jan 30 2023 17:40 utc | 41
The problem with your thesis is you assume rational thought on the part of the US. Poland is certainly not being rational. You can't count on your enemy being of the same level of competence as you are.
I'm not saying they are dumb, but they really do believe their own hype.
Posted by: Ann | Jan 30 2023 17:40 utc | 42
The for-profit, commoditized 'west' is on the brink of collapse. It's all smoke and mirrors now. Corrupt, captured institutions, bitterly divided tribes of identity, seething people - all the 'outlaw empire' has is distraction and destruction - all for profit of course.
No troops are going to Ukraine. Yet, still, something wicked this way comes.
Posted by: gottlieb | Jan 30 2023 17:41 utc | 43
@ Posted by: Nuremberg | Jan 30 2023 17:30 utc | 39
I am not referring to standards of living or pop cultural artifacts.
It is the incessant monitoring of personal movement, conversation, thought police, and reporting of suspicious activity by neighbours, all in the name of national security that will ultimately alienate the population.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 30 2023 17:44 utc | 45
Desert Storm by the way was preceded by Op Desert Shield.
The Iraqi Airforce aircraft that survived the initial start of the war were flown by raw ferry pilots to Iran, to be interned then seized. It promptly ceased to exist.
We spent almost six months battlefield preparation & shaping, destroying with impunity every piece of Iraqi Arms materiel identifiable, every bridge, every power station/transformer, ground attack on any vehicle that moved. MBTs, IFVs & Artillery, Grads, mortars were relentlessly targeted day in day out.
Multiple rotating CAP & ground attack patrol flights, free roam, on rotating station all across Iraq.
HQs units were identified & destroyed many times over. Bunkers & Air force shielded hangers, ammo & stores dumps were destroyed until none were left to add to the target list.
Then we simply ran the target lists again over already destroyed assets/facilities/infrastructure.
When Desert Storm commenced we had already attrited the Republican Guard Divisions to less than 10% materiel strength, the armored & mechanized divisions to less than 15% materiel strength.
The poorly trained & equipped conscripted, sacrificial Iraqi Shia Divisions in the forward defensive lines at the FEBA were incohesive & utterly shattered, broken.
We ran regular B-52 full payload dumb iron bomb runs in broad daylight destroying multiple grid squares at a time. Some times repeatedly. And we would drop propaganda flyers telling the targeted troops the precise time the bomb run would commence, hours in advance. We dropped Air fuel explosive bombs the same way, by rolling the prepared bladders off the lowered ramp of C-130s.
The Iraqi Army had ceased to exist in any measurable form, its morale utterly crushed, by the time we executed Desert Storm at H-hour.
With overwhelming uncontested total Air Dominance.
Not the situ re NATO mythical possible direct deployment into Ukraine today. Not at all.
@ Boo | Jan 30 2023 17:25 utc | 35
I wouldn't put any forces in there that I wanted to find again.
Posted by: John Kennard | Jan 30 2023 17:49 utc | 47
This tanks/plane thing seems surreal.
Best explanation I have heard is that it is a bluff in support of negotiated solution.
However, I am sure that the MIC is distraught at the possibility of losing this opportunity for major conflict.
Apparently, nominally Ukraine is "purchasing" this hardware - who is the sucker in hat deal, I wonder.
US is badly needing war to support their attempt at re-industrialization - sick as that is.
Thing US has a bear by the tail on this one - an increasingly agitated bear.
On the subject of Baerbock and her slip of tongue.
If Russia needs words of mid-level lackey to tip them -off that they are at war, then they have problems.
While a proper note might be good etiquette, I think Russia would look at evidence rather than words.
What use does any of the western rhetoric serve - they are lying, delusional,... what does one gain by analyzing that sht?
I suppose it is entertaining to play they "look what they said now!" game, but just leads to less than useful hysterics.
Seems like it would be something of a Turkey Shoot. If NATO is at risk of humiliation now, that could make it a lot worse.
Plan for the dumbest possible plan of attack and you wont be disappointed - US is "Bringing the Crazy".
Posted by: jared | Jan 30 2023 17:50 utc | 48
Wow brilliant analogy using the Kuwait allied offensive as analog battle to scale on Ukraine. Super way to put everything into proper realistic perspective, and indeed, clown world NATO looks pathetic, nothing could be finer, yes Sir. Bravo Mr MOA! Bravo Man.
Hey, there is the looming possibility, very possible, of dropping every bridge across the Dnieper River, which it appears the RF are saving for the moment it will achieve maximum strat-tac effect on the khazarian mafia's loyal invaders and their ukronazi tools. After those bridges are down there is no way any effective reinforcement crosses because the Russians will have total air dominance, all set to chop to pieces any crossing attempt, probably by adding to that effect the tactics of leaving one or two bridges up, or for river crossing actions, allowing just enough Abrams and support to cross then cut off its tail and pick it all off in detail, sitting there alone on the left bank, without any effective resupply to speak of. ZOg brother I can just see it, Lets play the game of Abrams plinking Russian style, and to rub salt in that would, why not dedicate a hypersonic kinetic per Abrams Leopard and Bradley, you know, "...nuke them from orbit, just to be sure."
Thats what I would do. Let the Rothchild lunatics order NATO to attack, they hate Putin enough to do it, (the ultimate in political control of a military, ultimate centralized control, the absolute worst scenario for an attack against Russian forces, let globo=peedo clown world run things, they been doing a marvelous job to date so don't stop them, which events have proven so far, just as the short feller said, don't stop your enemy when he's making a mistake)... because somebody has to pull out the name stealers teeth once and for all. Once NATO is a true and complete paper tiger, then its terror and reprisal operations are basically without its vast US/Brit dot mil support system and they begin to loose effective ability to run their regime change/color revolution and 5th-6th column operations, ie withering on the vine. All if for only one reason, to give all the little pumpernickel principalities and other small-medium nation states breathing space to get rid of all the cabal regimes and installed client organized crime oligarch's controlling them, and their peoples are able to regain natural national sovereignty.
In other-words, a cascade failure/preference cascade event ensues across the west, is possible and the khazarian institutional order starts its collapse.
There's still the massive surveillance machine, but that its end has to be brought about by the good folks in every country it infects, cause its such an insidious evil, never mind its vast ranks of gangstalkers LARPs and glowies, but they too depend on an endless stream of filthy lucre and wealth transfer, so follow the money is the best medicine for destroying the network. Kills a lot of birds with a few stones, even ends the vast child trafficking conduit system which supllies the ultimate drug, and when the adreno-chrome supply dwindles to the point only the most wealthy or connected/protected who are still alive can get it, a lot of cascade collapses come natural.
The Russians have saved the world already I think, long as the lunatics don't decide if they can not control the world there will be no world and begin nooklear Armageddon. Or Ragnorak, because they think themselves the gods and hate GOD.
Woh! What a time to be living in! Will the khazarians finally be defeated? Somehow I believe, I got faith us good folks in this world prevail in the end.
As the Russians say OooRah!
Posted by: mtnforge | Jan 30 2023 17:51 utc | 49
The west has suffered a huge loss in birthrates. While it may not affect this decade too much, by the mid of next decade things will go really sour. That will also seriously degrade ability of the waste to amass any sort of meaningful fighting force.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 30 2023 17:55 utc | 50
dh@17
You've got it. As Napoleon remarked: "An army marches on its stomach". Without a fully set logistical tail, such an incursion eastwards towards the arena would soon have a stomach ache.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 30 2023 17:57 utc | 51
We will never know who is winning until someone actually wins it. Msm is full of s... but the one in alternate media I trust on Ukraine(which is moa author) has been proven wrong with regards to Ukrainian resistance and Russian capability
. So we won't know how it will end until it is over with regards to who is winning.
Posted by: A.z | Jan 30 2023 17:59 utc | 52
I should note that potentially US is gaming a possible future scenario - Russia in western Ukraine (stretched).
But I imagine that is why Russia is in Belarus. And that is why US/NATO is losing it.
Posted by: jared | Jan 30 2023 17:59 utc | 53
zet @18
The "peace" of which they semantically propound is the peace under a rules-based order. Question becomes: Who sets the rules?
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 30 2023 17:59 utc | 54
Nice to see the street cred. coming in!
For the many above mentioned reasons, the NATO elements will only infiltrate as they are doing now and will not "mass up" on the border and charge forward into Ukraine proper. There would be a massive response from RF forces, Iskanders, Topols, and other ballistic missiles likely be used to flatten any forces foolish enough to assemble in large groups. Another factor is the loss of "prestige" that will inevitably take place when footage of NATO gear exploding makes its way to the interwebz. Most of us are now aware that USA is keen to hobble Germany, and are thus subjecting to one humiliating setback after another. The false promise of sending Abrams simply to pressure NATO nations to send their Leopards is obvious. This after blowing up NordStream. Just look at the bounties being place on the incoming armor! Tankers and ATGM crews will be scrambling to get first dibs.
One thing we can be reasonably sure of is that the USA and its vassals in the EU will become increasingly shrill as the second line of defense crumbles in the Donbas. With that often come "catastrophic events" false flags and more desperate measures. But as always, real metal and logistic talks and bullshit propaganda walks. I doubt the RF is going to stop everything the moment the controllers of Ukraine decide to sue for peace. Russia has been patient, has done everything by the numbers, and even spelled out their security requirements in crayon. My sense is that the time for talking is long passed...
Posted by: Chevrus | Jan 30 2023 18:00 utc | 55
The western level...
As a primary school teacher, I have been teaching in France for two years and before that in Belgium since 2007. Even in this short period of time, I can only observe the degeneration of society, cultural level, ability to perform 'complex' tasks, ability to respect rules....
Pupils are a witness group of our society and this is not very pleasing.
Posted by: Le Catalan | Jan 30 2023 18:00 utc | 56
The comments of Anna Folyga, an MEP from Poland are evil, but this is quite likely the plan behind what the west is doing. She said that Russia must cease to exist and suggested that the Western countries think over the concept of creating “free and independent” states on the pro-Russian territory, the basis of which will be indigenous peoples. Western countries will take care of their prosperity. The West will also establish control over the wealth of Russia, because, as it turns out, Russia has nothing, it all belongs to the peoples that Moscow “exploits mercilessly.”
In other words, destroy and break up Russia, take all of Russia's resources and wealth for the benefit of the west, and keep the indigenous people as serfs with barely enough to exist.
https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/01/29/poland-russia-is-a-threat-and-must-be-destroyed-forever/
Posted by: Belle | Jan 30 2023 18:02 utc | 57
Pardon my less granular grasp of the conflict. Is the West prepared for Russia to just Collapse, with crony capitalists and Putin Mob melting into the Refugee population, and Russia left as a political fiction that only exists to show that whoever is left in Russia owes Huge Debts? Seems they did this in 1917, and again in the 90's. If "I" was Putin, I might put a gun to Russia's head, and ask "What will you give me not to pull the trigger?" I am interested to hear how y'all who are more focused will straighten me out.
Polish elites are belligerent fantasists on a scale that could make even the British elites blush.
Posted by: Boo | Jan 30 2023 18:05 utc | 59
jared | Jan 30 2023 17:50 utc | 48
"On the subject of Baerbock and her slip of tongue.
If Russia needs words of mid-level lackey to tip them -off that they are at war, then they have problems."
One of the phoney-war aspects of this war is the tacit agreement between the empire and Russia that the NATO forces fighting in the Ukraine maintain some level of deniability, however implausible, and Russia agrees to pretend NATO isn't really fighting there.
Baerbock's open statement of the truth was a breach of the mutually agreed fiction, embarrassing for both sides and potentially escalatory.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jan 30 2023 18:07 utc | 60
I remember the '80s & the size of NATO forces. Have also seen and taken part in the buildup to desert storm.
When I compare the current exercises/deployments it is all pr and marketing. Juggling with equipment and media events to create a mirage of power.
In reality it is just a facade held up by a massive all-intrusive propaganda machine. When will the house of cards tumble & what will be left?
Posted by: Jan met de baard | Jan 30 2023 18:14 utc | 61
I knew two naiive young men who participated in Desert Storm. Naive when they joined and infantilized by military life, they died as overgrown children. Died young and not counted as Desert Storm casualties but they were. Thinking of the social station of those young men there is no way US could find more like them. They did at least have some public schooling that was not wholly negative. They had simply ghastly diets but not so chemical or sugary as what is called food now. Grew up with full presence of street drugs, not so normative as now. Less pharma. US could not field the army of 1991.
No way the patriotism or social connectednes of 1991 recur.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 30 2023 18:15 utc | 62
The Outlaw US Empire's military is barely enough to defend its continental expase, but even that's very questionable given the lack of decent AD systems. To do anything further in Europe, the Empire would need to transfer its combat forces stationed in South Korea and Japan. Does anyone thnk those forces would be allowed to return? (Why not invade Eastern Russia with those forces? Because the logistical chain is too long and Russia's wary to any sort of Inchon move.)
As Crooke wrote again about the narrative, it would need to be completely reversed. Escobar's latest talks about "A panicked Empire tries to make Russia an ‘offer it can’t refuse’", but the minimum Russia will accept as grounds for negotiations will be its December 2021 proposals. The longer the Outlaw US Empire dithers, the worse the terms will be from its POV. Most know I've advocated no NATO nation on Russia's or the Union State's borders; and better yet, NATO's disintegration.
The bullshit being floated today about Bojo being threatened with a missile enema by Putin is narrative damage control. Drawing NATO into Ukraine so it can be destroyed there is brilliant as Russia doesn't need to directly attack a NATO nation, although that might change in the future.
The talk about Big Arrow offensives omitted one possibility--that the entire FEBA would be turned into one gigantic arrow as the offensive is pressed along its entire length making the deployment of the few remaining reserves very difficult, which forces the Ukies to draw upon the troops garrisoned at major cities thus depleting their defenses. And as we're seeing, Ukie press gangs are being resisted, and the word of their actions are getting to the RoW.
The Outlaw US Empire lost its Ukraine gambit in 2014 but is incapable of admitting that truth. Months ago I described its attempt as futile. And that description has only become further solidified.
belle @57
that object is same as usa swamp of neocon imperialism
Posted by: paddy | Jan 30 2023 18:16 utc | 64
aristodemos @ 54
Aye, good that you put peace in quotes since it's certainly not peace but subjugation :-)
Posted by: Zet | Jan 30 2023 18:16 utc | 65
Even then we didn't defeat the Iraqi's in the Persian Gulf War by the way.
We suddenly stopped in the middle of the desert halfway to Baghdad. Via the Iraqi diplomatic representative communication through the Swiss(?) embassy representative.
'Cause there would be mass deaths of the Coalitions deployed troops if we didn't do so immediately. Damned hard to even stay alive, at rest, in Mopp-3 in the Iraqi desert ...
We knew for a fact it was not a bluff. The real deal. Hence unexpected unilateral ceasefire & extended negotiations ...
Outraged@46
Quite the picture of full system dominance over a supine Iraq, you paint. This kind of aerial supremacy has been the leitmotif since "Operation Turkey Shoot" in the Marianas offensive in the last third of '44. Similar, was the terror bombing of civilian Dresden in the closing month of the ETO conflict in April of '45.
Guess what, gang? Mama Bear has been poked and provoked quite some number of times lately. In a way its too bad that the AirFarce generals are aware of what they would face should they try some funny business with F-16's over Western Ukraine. The fear factor is now writ large amongst the Brass Hats, particularly within the A.F. faction in the Pentagram and even more so in Colorado Springs.
This go-round, should it come to pass, certainly ain't gonna be no turkey-shoot.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 30 2023 18:21 utc | 67
... winners being the owners of the U.S. defense industry ...
Posted by b on January 30, 2023 at 16:23 UTC | Permalink
---
What future does the US MIC have after losing their escalation in Ukraine?
Their customers will at that point have been ruined, and credit will be very expensive.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 30 2023 18:21 utc | 68
One of the phoney-war aspects of this war is the tacit agreement between the empire and Russia that the NATO forces fighting in the Ukraine maintain some level of deniability, however implausible, and Russia agrees to pretend NATO isn't really fighting there.Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jan 30 2023 18:07 utc | 60
Say what? Russia has consistently called out NATO's hypocrisy.
Alliance Secretary General J. Stoltenberg said that NATO does not send soldiers or planes to Ukraine and is not going to become the « warring party ». It is clear that we comment on such statements instantly, we give explanations and our official position.I have a question for J. Stoltenberg: do you really keep citizens of the EU and NATO countries for uniform boobs? You believe that by sending tanks that should be served by people, forming ( including at the bases of Ukrainian embassies abroad ) recruitment points for recruiting citizens of other countries, Are you still not a party to the conflict? And who are you then? Come up with a new name for yourself. Self-identification is required if you are not a party to the conflict.
This is from the latest (of many) Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing...
https://mid.ru/en/press_service/spokesman/briefings/1850728/
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jan 30 2023 18:21 utc | 69
@b Just additional facts
The no-fly zone was the cover for more than 11 years of sead/dead.
The Iraqis were also poor in reconnaissance assets (satellites, etc.).
Iraq 1991-2003
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/us-no-fly-zones-iraq-what-end
"
Since 1991, the United States has averaged more than 34,000 military deployments per year in support of no-fly zone operations in Iraq. One might ask: with what results?
"
Posted by: 600w | Jan 30 2023 18:22 utc | 70
Seriously the west has been trying to break apart russia ever since it got a coast on the black sea. Does no one realizes B's analysis of being able to take Crimea only is the whole point of this????
How does that not constitute a strategic victory? The next war cuts of russia from Caucasus? Can we not think two steps ahead? The arc of history is long, a russia defeat at Crimea only sets the stage for the next war, assuming the US still exists and desires global hegemony.
These wars, and it'd a whole series of them, won't stop until the US engine is turned off.
It's russias nukes, space program and resources in that order that compels a global hegemon to destroy them. Until the US can't pursue hegemony any more there's more war coming regardless of where this one ends.
Russia can't defeat Europe let alone the US and Europe, Japan and Australia together.
Do we get it now? The arc of history compels this forward. All russia can do is survive until the arc bends to another direction. They can't win they can only fight for time until the environment changes.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 30 2023 18:29 utc | 71
@ (B)
Thanks for the usual insightful intro and for your public service of maintaining this meaningful site. This is quite the place for post-grad seminars on a daily basis.
Perhaps were your land no longer an occupied nation, you would be addressed as Herr Doktor. One can take a bit of hope that at least those who live in the former DDR get it and will keep the pot at a high-simmer for months to come. As the "Wessis" become a bit more discomfited in their day to day lives, perhaps there will be a gradual awakening even in places like Frankfurt.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 30 2023 18:31 utc | 72
Also Russia will not allow for such force to build up in Ukraine or Poland.
US will not be able to transport that kind of force over the Atlantic without being interdicted. No convoy will survive that trip.
Air Carrier Groups simply can't protect even the carrier itself. The aircraft stationed on a carrier lack the range for projecting an effective defensive screen against air attacks.
So go figure the fate of any convoy..
Posted by: JR | Jan 30 2023 18:31 utc | 73
Wilikins @ 31
NATO allies like Poland and Romania will also lead to NATO's defeat. These armies as corrupt at the top and the least fit for battle conditions.
Polish Army continues to lose people — reports
At the moment, there are about 20,000 mercenaries in Ukraine. Among them are Poles, who are still required by law to have permission from the Ministry of Defense to stay in Ukraine. In statements to the media, they usually explain that they are fighting not for money, but for the idea, this is a complete lie.
General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the land forces, stated, "Of course, Ukraine will not defeat Russia as we would like it. Russia has the advantage. The Ukrainians can't mount any major offensive that could break through the Russian defenses. Instead, the Ukrainians are launching scattered strikes in the north and south. "They have no strategic effect."
Moreover, Poland is losing professional soldiers. A total of several thousand soldiers and volunteers resigned last year. Last year saw the largest number of military personnel leaving the army. Moreover, in the first month of this year alone, more than 4,000 professional soldiers resigned, already a third more than last year's initial months.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/31474
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 30 2023 18:31 utc | 74
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jan 30 2023 18:07 utc | 60
Indeed escalatory. The foreign minister of a nation saying that it is at war with an other nation is a kin to a formal declaration of war. Which means that it would be perfectly legal for Russia to take counter measures. And the Russians are legalists, remember?
If I was in the Russian leadership today I would argue for the mod to publish a list of primary (military and political installations) and secondary (infrastructure critical for moving troops) missile targets, and kindly advise civilians to stay out of harms way.
That would make it clear to the German public just what the cost of the game their leaders are playing might turn out to be.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jan 30 2023 18:31 utc | 75
Posted by: Exile | Jan 30 2023 17:23 utc | 32
Kiev - 500,000
EU plus England etc - 450,000
US plus minor vassals - 450,000
Mercs etc - 100,000
Assume they can assemble above troops in dreamland.
That scenario needs full mobilization, including logistics, plus resources, including energy resources. For that purpose they should, in first place, occupy Saudi Arabia and Persian gulf sheikhdoms, and secure energy resources, then go to fight in Ukraine.
Come on, out of your imaginative world.
Posted by: Arata | Jan 30 2023 18:33 utc | 76
@Belle: Merkel not only admitted to misleading Russia with the Minsk agreement to provide time for Ukraine to strengthen (for war), but also stated that Russia was never pacified (balkanized and robbed of its natural resources)
Posted by: JR | Jan 30 2023 18:35 utc | 77
RE: "the owners of the U.S. defense industry . . ."
B -- I think that it's way past time to drop the ludicrous idea that it's a "defense" industry and go back to what it was when there was at least a little bit of truth from DC and the Pentagon -- the War industry -- reliant as it was upon the War Department, not upon a so-called "Defense" Department.
Please everyone, let's all do our best to always call it what it is, and help spread the truth about what that department really does.
Posted by: AntiSpin | Jan 30 2023 18:37 utc | 78
@ Boo | Jan 30 2023 18:05 utc | 59
"Making history" can work both ways.
Posted by: John Kennard | Jan 30 2023 18:37 utc | 79
aristodemos @51
paddy got it right @11. I was agreeing with him. Military professionals seem to be the ones with a sense of reality and the voice to use it if they want to. But didn't Austin and Milley raise objections to sending Abrams tanks? Maybe they can claim credit for the stalling tactics.
Posted by: dh | Jan 30 2023 18:38 utc | 80
dan of steele @ 33
one other thing re Iraq. Many of the Iraqi generals had been bought off and simply did not show up for the party. I sincerely doubt the US will have luck getting a Russian general to betray his people.
No, but every officer from Colonel on up in Belarus is being offered villas on Costa del Sol and stuffed Swiss bank accounts. That is a very real risk for Russia.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 30 2023 18:40 utc | 81
Deep appreciation b. Readers promoting Russia is too slow should now recognize the geographic dimensions.
+ + + + + + +
"It analyzes 'winners and looser' of the war."
"Winners and looser?" Does the majority of the population not know the difference between 'loose' and 'lose'?
Every day I see this.
Posted by: Peter Hegger | Jan 30 2023 16:49 utc | 9
Words, words, words. I guarantee ALL MoA readers understand the sense of it.
Before you stood up in the self-appointed role of in-house moderator grammarian, did you consult with the dumb AI spell-check which overwrites? When one writes loser spellcheck enters looser! so please, please spare us your editing.
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 30 2023 18:40 utc | 82
old hippie @62
Correct: The U$$A Military has gotten snared in a demographic spider-web. No way those prissy, preppy, burbie babies are gonna hack it emotionally, much less physically. And as for the Wokies, trannies and liberated lezzies, uh-huh. The ones now almost totally missing from the equation are those hard-assed country-boys, as industrialized agribiz on huge plantations has succeeded in eliminating those kids from the small farms (no longer there) and even from the small towns which existed as markets (both ways) for those former farm folks.
Living on the NorShor fringes of Chi-town, you will have a full handle on any possible recruits from that massive demographic, much as I ken the rural scene. If there's someone out there who desires the perfect lazy but frustrating occupation, then being a military recruiter would be the perfect sinecure.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 30 2023 18:46 utc | 83
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia give middle finger to U.S. pressure to send tanks
Ben Norton has a very good 20 minute piece on the latest Latino smackdown of the Yankee "request" that they send tanks to Ukraine. Lula, Argentina's Fernandez and Colombia's Petro all emphatically said they will not send tanks or anything else to Ukraine and then pointed the finger at the U.S. for stoking the war to begin with.
Most Latin American leaders are staking out a "gandhi/MLK" type of position regarding the war in Ukraine. They typically sound like an exasperated parent breaking up a fight between their children, often mentioning that they condemn Russia's "invasion" before laying much of the blame on the U.S. Personally, I think this is not completely truthful on their part. Many, if not all, have either actively participated in armed struggle or have supported it in their countries: Argentina's Malvinas, Brazil & Uruguay's Tupac Amaru, Colombia's Farc, Mexico's 1910 Revolution, etc. In other words... they are not "Gandhi". If that's true, then why are they posturing like him? One word--- "survival". They know what the U.S. empire has done and would do. Right now the yanks are placing snipers on the rooftop of the Peruvian embassy in Lima to protect coup plotter ambassador Lisa Kenna.
However, looking beyond the sort of doublespeak of Latin leaders is a clear anti- U.S. position backed by pro- global south actions: visits with Chinese, Russian, Iranian leaders, active plans to join BRICS, increased trade with non west countries at an accelerating pace.
Bottom line... no tanks. no troops. no money no nothing for Ukraine. Take your war and shove it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vde5cB8N6Fc
Posted by: migueljose | Jan 30 2023 18:49 utc | 84
From the armchair: Russia probably has these short range objectives: 1) Destroy the army of the Ukraine; 2) Establish a defensive line east of the Dnieper and advance it westward; 3) Prevent the formation of a 'new' fighting force west of the Dnieper. The Rand Corporation advises against a long war (which is an argument against escalation) Zelensky wants offensive equipment 'now' (an argument for escalation). Regarding #3 above; if the supply of new equipments (tanks, etc) is initiated, then Russia will atttempt to destroy ( an argument for destroying lines of communication with a focus on airpower). As long as Ukraine's army is 'pinned down' in present position, Russia has freedom of action elsewhere. If Russia has 500,000 in Ukraine, then if Nato 'invades', then does this mean assembling a 3 to one advantage to evict (1,500,000) (a European draft?). Unless a negotiated settlement (with what sort of guarantees)...at present it is like a wrestling match - both opponents are holding on to each other, but one (Russia ) the stronger is pushing the other towards the abyss. Nato PEDS, like tanks, won't help a spent Ukraine. Nato is rapidly becoming a bystander in this event.
Posted by: T. Martin | Jan 30 2023 18:50 utc | 85
@600w | Jan 30 2023 18:22 utc | 70
You missed the intervening Southern Iraqi mass Shia uprising that we publicly promoted, in fact through the Prez, instigated. In the false Shia belief that the Coalition ground, air & naval forces would support the rebellion.
They were utterly slaughtered & survivors tortured to death by the Mukhabarat, after Iraq called forward dispersed reserve Divisions, with tanks & attack helos. Officially protected(immune) by flawed signed & sealed, initial ceasefire terms.
We were supine, merely looking on as disinterested observers as it occurred. 'Cause the Iraqi Shia were considered notionally allied to Iran. So it was a good thing, if the Iraqis massacred the ones with fight in 'em ... :(
@ dan of steele | Jan 30 2023 17:25 utc | 33
one other thing re Iraq. Many of the Iraqi generals had been bought off and simply did not show up for the party. I sincerely doubt the US will have luck getting a Russian general to betray his people.
Respectfully, not so, that was the situ re 2003 Iraq War, 12 years later. The Iraqi Generals & Officer Corps in 90-91 were loyal, and those that weren't were sufficiently terrified to pretend to be, for the sake of their families.
@ Neofeudalfuture | Jan 30 2023 18:29 utc | 71
Pathetic. Get back under ya bridge.
Untold Reality Of Wagner Group In Bakhmut Ukraine, First Hand Account, What The Media Won’t Tell Youby Larry Johnson
29 January 2023
LINK
If you have a spare hour I want to encourage you to watch the following video. It is a conversation between two former members of the Australian Army. Willy OAM, the guy with the red beard, is interviewing a former mate who is on the ground fighting for Ukraine. [.]He concedes, albeit reluctantly, that Ukraine is losing and is suffering massive casualties. He reports that one Ukrainian brigade (a unit of 5000 men) suffered 80% casualties in recent weeks. He admits that the Wagner Group is not suffering major casualties and are fighting very smart and are well-equipped. Yet, in the next breath, he insists Russia is hemorrhaging troops because that he is what he is hearing from Ukrainian sources.
He repeats the Western propaganda meme that Russian is sending untrained conscripts to the front but then, based on his personal observation, bluntly states that Ukraine is sending 60 year old, untrained, ill-equipped conscripts (i.e., guys grabbed off the street) into the meat grinder.He tries to put a gloss on Ukraine’s prospects for victory, but when you listen to him tick off the corruption, the poor leadership, the lack of supplies, incompetent commanders and stupid battle tactics a clear picture of a Ukrainian Army on the brink of destruction emerges.[.]
I disagree with the statement this war will not end. Mouse-clicking currencies to finance the war is not sustainable and US led-NATO, will of necessity, cut and run sooner rather than later.
Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 30 2023 18:53 utc | 87
On the subject of Baerbock and her slip of tongue.
Posted by: jared | Jan 30 2023 17:50 utc | 48
There are also legal matters. e.g.:
- Yes, Germany can go to war, but it requires winning a vote in parliament, with a 2/3 majority. No such vote was held.
- The European Union has no competence in military matters, or foreign affairs.
The Russian side seems to have its legal affairs much better in order. There is the letter Russia sent to all EU countries, in which Russia clearly stated that Russia wanted NATO rolled back to the situation of 1997 - the date of the NATO-Russia Founding Act. And there is the whole song-and-dance of Russia first recognizing the independence of Donbass and Lugansk, signing a treaty of mutual defense, and then Donbass and Lugansk asking for Russian military help. Other Russian actions can be justified with precedents set, e.g. by NATO in the Yugoslav war.
But in the end it's the victor who makes the rules. If the U.S. wants to hold Russia to court, I suggest the U.S. start thinking seriously about winning this war first.
Posted by: Passerby | Jan 30 2023 18:55 utc | 88
I think that this post by "b" and the report by that consultancy are based on the unrealistic premise that the USA goal in Ukraine is a military victory over the RF. The USA strategists are serious, capable, realistic, and it would be absurd for them to have that goal. Comparisons with the second Iraqi war are pointless not just because of the different terrain and military situation, but also because the goal in Iraq was to impose regime change through a military invasion and occupation.
The rational goal of the USA in the Ukraine is instead to eventually, over the next 10-15 years (or more if necessary), trigger regime change in the RF, from the outside. President Navalny of the Muscovy Republic is the endgame, or some similar situation where the RF is split and "pacified".
This is not what the PR performers of the USA, EU, NATO political class are saying, but their role is purely entertainment towards "public opinion" (political "scientists" say the role of politicians is to "gather consensus" for policies decided by vested interest groups). The time when they were principals making or at least contributing to policy decisions was long in the past, and even then there were significant constraints on that.
So all USA actions past and present, and plans, should be evaluated as to whether they increase the likelihood of regime change, 1973-style (Chile), 1991-style (USSR), or 2014-style (Ukraine), in the RF. It is classic "domino theory" and Ukraine is just a domino that has already fallen.
Posted by: Blissex | Jan 30 2023 18:56 utc | 89
@ Nuremberg | Jan 30 2023 17:30 utc | 39
As Heiner Mueller once remarked:
“Natuerlich sind 10 Deutsche duemmer als 5.”
“Of course 10 Germans are more stupid than 5.”
It is a hopeless place.
Regarding the east/west divide it is very interesting how visible it still is.
I always liked the thesis that with the disappearing of the DDR, the old BRD disappeared as well.
I would add to that thesis that manny western Germans did not realise it untill fairly recently.
What happens now with regards to Ukraine will shake up the “Berliner Republik” fundamentally. But i expect no change in politcs let alone the media .
Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 30 2023 18:57 utc | 90
Exile | Jan 30 2023 17:23 utc | 32
the west will run out of insulin before these twinkie and ding dong stuffed bags of crisco and fdc yellow#666 ever get out of basic training (as in hostess twinkies and ding dongs, the "let them eat tasty snack cakes" variety).
but sure: today, Crimea, tomorrow Moscow, Wednesday Beijing! (or if your a real manly man like Tuck-er-between-your-legs-and-run Carlson, first Mexico, then China). just make sure those hove-a-round scooters everyone uses in the grocery store are well charged...
btw, if Russia (or whoever...) decided to test a hypersonic weapon (or whatever...) on that command and control center, that ruling class communication hub named Boris Johnson, who would lament? his dog would wag its tail in glee and pee on his tombstone w/o a second thought.
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 30 2023 18:59 utc | 91
I hope they made a decent donation. You're not running a charity here! The cheek.
Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 30 2023 19:01 utc | 92
I thought Turkey closed Black Sea access via Bosphorus and Dardanelles to warships.
Posted by: Ivan | Jan 30 2023 19:03 utc | 93
A large list of events today at Russia's MFA, one being Answers of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation to media questions received by the press conference on the results of the activities of Russian diplomacy in 2022, which consists of 28 points. Here's the lead Q&A:
Question: Can Russia, in response to the obviously unfriendly actions of Poland and the Baltic countries, break off relations with these countries?A: Poland and the Baltic countries are states where a frenzied Russophobic campaign has been unfolding for a long time and that are trying to be the backdoors of any anti-Russian ventures of the West. Recently, bilateral relations with these countries have catastrophically degraded, cooperation with them in all areas has been frozen and practically reduced to zero.
But we are not in favor of severing diplomatic relations. Even in the most difficult situation, it is necessary to preserve the channels for dialogue and resolving the issues of our fellow citizens and compatriots. It cannot be ruled out that, having entered into anti-Russian rages, these countries will decide to completely break off contacts with us. If this happens, the responsibility for this step and its consequences will fall entirely on the leadership of these states. We intend to firmly defend our national interests, and opponents must understand that their actions will have long-term consequences.
The policy position within the answer has long been known but seems to be forgotten at times. There are many excellent Q&As that have nothing to do with Ukraine and everything to do with Global South integration. I just checked the MFA's English language page and discovered the beginnings of the Q&As in English here that might be completed in 12-18 hours. As usual, far more info is available on the Russian part of the MFA's website. For example, Lavrov held a meeting and later a presser with Pakistan's FM Bhutto-Zardari, but nothing about Ukraine was mentioned.
Ive spoken to Iraq veterans who most tell me their days consisted of going on night missions to catch Iraqi "baddies". Once in a while they would encounter a cave or hole where they believed "baddies" were holed up. They woud just incinerate the entire cave from the outside and if they see some movement incinerate again. No questions asked. They were basically on luxury hunting trips where the prey are Iraqi "animals".
I doubt American GIs will be doing the same sort of thing in Ukraine. It aintbgoing to be no hunting trip.
Posted by: Comandante | Jan 30 2023 19:04 utc | 95
Posted by: El Lissitzky | Jan 30 2023 18:57 utc | 90
“Natuerlich sind 10 Deutsche duemmer als 5.”
--
I love it :D
Posted by: Macpott | Jan 30 2023 19:05 utc | 96
Although it goes without saying, I would add to the list of losers in this war all the poor souls of Donbass, the forcibly conscripted Ukrainians (non-Nazis) and their families, the Russian soldiers and their friends and families. This didn't need to happen but for the psychosis and greed Here in the West.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 30 2023 19:05 utc | 97
Nailed to the Perch
After America’s Afghanistan debacle, the Ukraine is now also being brought back to the U.S. as a special warranty case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnciwwsvNcc
Enjoy.
Posted by: GreyRaven | Jan 30 2023 19:06 utc | 98
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 30 2023 18:40 utc | 81
«every officer from Colonel on up in Belarus is being offered villas on Costa del Sol and stuffed Swiss bank accounts.»
And it can be much cheaper than that: Skripal sold out dozens of his colleagues for just £100,000, and I guess that in the end he had to resort to black market trading in fentanyl (with his daughter as mule) to afford comfortable living standards in expensive south-east England.
«That is a very real risk for Russia.»
Not just in Belarus, but in Kazakhstan and every little remote garrison in the RF itself, if they were not bought already in 1991 and subsequent years. Sir Clive conquered India for the East India Company by bribing most of the opposite commanders too, and the chinese and roman empires were consummate practitioners too centuries before him.
Posted by: Blissex | Jan 30 2023 19:06 utc | 99
Blissex | Jan 30 2023 18:56 utc | 89
"The USA strategists are serious, capable, realistic, and it would be absurd for them to have that goal."
yep, they've got a firm grip on reality. oh, you betcha. just ask Kabul. and Boeing.
though it seems highly unlikely, it's not impossible, but did these strategists strategize what they will do when they are under the guillotine or swinging from a noose where they belong? in any case, i predict one day very soon the world will have a very big laugh when the Potomac River floods all the levels of the Pentagon and armies of rats come fleeing out of there, all squealing, "but, but, but, we are serious strategists!"
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Jan 30 2023 19:08 utc | 100
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Reality won't stop NATO shills and hawks from trying to escalate further.
Posted by: Roy Walker | Jan 30 2023 16:30 utc | 1