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Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2023-10
News & views not related to the Ukraine conflict …
On the current Ukraine thread, I provided some of Putin’s opening remarks in his meeting with government members, but IMO his entire initial oratory ought to be provided for barflies to read. The complete translated transcript of the meeting is available here:
Vladimir Putin: Dear colleagues, good afternoon!
Today we are holding our first meeting with members of the Government in 2023. I once again congratulate you on this event and wish you every success.
Just recently-a couple of days ago-we met with the Prime Minister and some colleagues from the Government, discussed the results, and talked about what we will do in the coming year. Mikhail Vladimirovich [Mishustin], showed how the work in the Government is technologically structured in the most important areas, including the implementation of national projects.
What I would like to say is that we spoke at a narrow meeting, but I would like to point out [once again]. First of all, I would like to thank you for your work in 2022. Nothing that our opponent predicted for us happened. And this was done, of course, first of all thanks to the citizens of Russia, their composure, all our composure, readiness for challenges, readiness to work in difficult conditions. But last but not least, this is the result of the Government’s work. Mikhail Vladimirovich managed to assemble an efficient, modern team of interested people-interested in the results of the work, [managed] to build all this activity technologically well, and this, of course, brings appropriate results.
We know – we discussed it with our colleagues from the Administration just this morning – that we have additional budget revenues, and they are not related to oil or gas revenues, but rather to non-oil and gas revenues: 200 billion rubles in additional revenues. This gives us the opportunity to solve all the tasks that we set for development and on those issues that are current, but very serious and important. This means working at the federal level, and it means working on the regional dimension.
We need, of course, in the near future to absolutely achieve [resolution] of issues related to sovereign – namely, to sovereign, independent development, despite any external pressure and threats.
I would like to emphasize that we will reliably guarantee the security and interests of the country, we will improve our defense capability, and we will certainly solve all the problems related to providing the Armed Forces and units involved in a special military operation.
At the same time, we will continue to implement large-scale social and economic programs and plans aimed at improving people’s well-being, unlocking Russia’s enormous potential, and expanding our international relations. We certainly have all the resources to do this.
Six main areas of work for the current year, 2023, have already been outlined, and I would just like to remind you of some of the things that we have already discussed.
The first is to expand foreign economic relations and build new logistics corridors. As a matter of fact, we are actively working in this area – we need to continue this work.
Further. We need to achieve noticeable positive results in the development of road and other infrastructure, housing and communal services, although 2022 was also successful and good here. Well, what can I say: Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin, and I discussed just the other day the results of work in the construction sector – a good result, one of the best in our history. As for housing construction, it is probably the best in general. The groundwork is done, you need to maintain this pace.
The third. It is necessary to significantly increase the technological capabilities of the Russian economy and encourage the opening of new industries and jobs. Everyone is doing it, of course. First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov is working in the most promising areas.First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov is working in the most promising areas, and I very much hope that together with the companies that are designated as leading, we will continue the work that was started last year.
Fourth. A systemic issue is the strengthening of our country’s financial sovereignty. This is the most important condition for increasing investment in high-tech companies, industry, agriculture and many other industries. I very much look forward to the effective work of the Central Bank and the Government, first of all, of course, the economic bloc and the Ministry of Finance, just as it was in 2022.
Fifth. Economic policy measures should be designed in such a way that they lead to an increase in real wages and incomes of people, and together with social support measures, especially for families with children, ensure further reduction of poverty and inequality.
Sixth. Special attention should be paid, of course, to solving acute problems in the field of demography – this has also been discussed many times, I will not go into details. We understand what the main problems here are and how to approach them in order to solve them. I mean, of course, addressing these issues by increasing the availability of modern and high-quality healthcare.
I would like to emphasize that work in these areas should cover all regions of the country, including new regions of the Russian Federation. That is why the task was set to provide a systematic, integrated approach to the integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions into the common socio-economic space of Russia.
Let me remind you that the Government has been instructed to prepare a special program for the development of new constituent entities of the Russian Federation by the end of this quarter. In the horizon of 2030, they should reach the national level in terms of infrastructure, the level of social services, and many other parameters of the quality of life. I ask the Government, federal agencies, and colleagues in the regions to work out all the details of such a program as clearly and consistently as possible.
And of course, the most acute, vital issues need to be resolved now in an operational mode. As a matter of fact, that’s what we do. I understand that the situation in the new regions is complicated: fighting continues in some territories, and peaceful life has not been restored everywhere, and people’s safety has been ensured.
Naturally, all these factors need to be taken into account, but all this is not a reason to take a break, postpone the solution of the most pressing issues for later. Even now, we need to set specific goals and gradually, step by step, achieve them, achieve their solutions. This is what people who are really going through hard times and want to see changes for the better are waiting for.
It is important to set clear and understandable guidelines for the development of new regions of Russia, so that residents know what will be built in their cities and towns, what facilities will be restored and when, how family incomes will grow, what state assistance they will receive, how kindergartens, schools, universities, hospitals and polyclinics will work, when businesses will open, what support small businesses and entrepreneurs will receive, and how infrastructure and transport will develop.
Here’s what I wanted to put some emphasis on: we need to support local entrepreneurs. Of course, if we need investments from some serious Russian sources, from our large companies-private or state-owned-we need to promote this. But where possible, it is necessary to support local businesses.
Key performance indicators for the development of Zaporizhia, Kherson region, LPR and DPR should be set for the current year. I am referring to common, transparent work criteria not only for regional and municipal authorities, but also for federal authorities, so that our colleagues on the ground, together with the Government, ministries and departments, can focus their efforts and resources on those priority areas that require attention in the first place.
In addition, we have already said this, and I want to emphasize once again that it is necessary to involve new regions of the Russian Federation in the implementation of national projects, and this also means that the activities of national projects in the territories of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions should be provided with funding.
We have said this many times – I know that the Government is actively working on preparing key performance indicators for the development of new regions and connecting them to national projects, but I would like to draw your attention: it is not yet completed, and we need to resolve the remaining issues as soon as possible.
As for today’s agenda, we have agreed to consider the issues of social support for citizens, the organization of payments of funds in new regions of Russia, and benefits in all areas as the main topic. About it Tatyana Alekseevna [Golikova], will report today.
But at the beginning of the meeting, I would like to ask Denis Manturov, to tell us how the instructions for implementing long-term programs for updating the fleet of aircraft and water transport fleet are being implemented. We have also been actively engaged in this last year, and we all understand the urgency of these issues, especially in air transport. We discussed this topic just a month ago at the Strategic Development Council.
Let’s get to work.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 12 2023 19:45 utc | 23
@james 19
Long before then they* figured out the perfect scam.
Let’s say a company, let’s call them Tyson, wants to bribe the governor of a state to pass some fuck-the-public legislation, which nobody in their right minds would ever support. Let’s call the governor Bill.
Tyson contacts a shady but reliable lawyer, let’s call him James, to operate an investment trust for them.
Tyson suggests that Bill tell his wife, let’s call her Hildemort, that James could run a market account for her, giving her killer advice, without violating any laws.
Hildemort opens an account through the James and follows his advice to buy some options.
James follows his instructions to the letter. He begins advising Hildemort to buy and sell. He takes positions daily, all party to follow (this means that when he buys options, he does not say for whom he is buying. This is legit, as the name might not be known at the time of purchase, and people sometimes prefer not to announce their interest in something until as late as possible). A little later, James closes out the position. When he closes the position, any gains are credited to Hildemort’s account. Any losses are credited to Tyson’s account. By the end of the year, Hildemort is up, a lot, and Tyson is down. Tyson though, is completely happy, because Bill adds the legislation they want to a must-pass bill, which sails through and Bill cheerfully signs it into law.
Did Bill take a bribe? Definitely not.He did not receive a dime to which he was not entitled.
Did Hildemort break the law? How could she? She wasn’t a politician and did nothing except a bit of options dabbling at which she was incredibly competent, never putting an option wrong, her account growing continuously.
Did James break the law? He had no insider information to share. He dutifully followed his instructions and the law, and while privilege means that nobody can know what his instructions actually were, his clients were happy and he did nothing that lawyers don’t do all the time.
Tyson ostensibly did nothing illegal. Many companies have investment funds, and there are no laws saying that an investment fund has to make money. Nobody knows or can discover what they said to their lawyers. Apparently, they got a lucky break when that legislation passed, externalizing tens of millions of dollars.
Everyone profited but the public. And official policy was and is, fuck-the-public. They are used to it.
And this was so brilliant that, had this not been a morality fable, Bill and Hildemort would have deserved a suitable reward. Say, make him president and give him a whole country to fuck; after all, he did it so smoothly, even without a lubricant, that everyone knows him as slick Willie.
Since the dark daus in which subterfuge like this might have been necessary had US politicians not been infinitely cleaner than the driven snow they snort, husband and wife, and father and son millionaire and billionaire tag teams have become normalized in US politics. In other words, the moral of this pretty little morality tale was taken to heart by every US politician. Fuck-the-public, but always make a profit.
.
*Clearly this is a work of fiction, and any resemblance to people alive or dead is not intended (or our problem).
Posted by: Hermit | Jan 13 2023 17:07 utc | 66
Rae @75–
Thanks for your reply. Yes, JK Fairbank surprises many, but then he’s from what I call the Objective School of Historians to which I subscribe. As we’re seeing in real time, propagandized contemporary and historical events only serves to wreak havoc on the ability to make good decisions and policy. And that’s an excellent segway to what I came to post.
TASS today interviewed the Director of the Second Department of CIS countries of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia A.A. Polishchuk and asked him a rather wide range of questions, some of which ought to be applied to the Ukraine thread. Of particular interest IMO is what’s happening in Moldova which is covered at the interview’s end. Also of importance are the activities of the Union State that are covered:
Question: There is often talk about the need for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine, and many countries offer their mediation services. However, despite all these statements, there is a feeling that so far the parties are quite far from diplomacy. How would you assess the prospects for a diplomatic settlement of the crisis around Ukraine today?
Answer: You are right, there is no shortage of offers of mediation and so-called good offices. There are already about twenty of them. Unfortunately, not all of them are sincere and trustworthy. First of all, this applies to countries that have imposed illegal sanctions against Russia and supply weapons to Ukraine, thereby becoming a party to the conflict. It’s unclear how this might fit in with their mediation ambitions.
It is not easy to talk about the prospects for a diplomatic settlement now. In fact, we are not dealing with Kiev. He is a tool in the hands of the West, primarily the United States. In fact, Russia is not confronting Ukraine, but the NATO-Ukrainian military-industrial conglomerate, in which the Ukrainians serve as an instrument of armed struggle against Russia, and the countries of the alliance – the role of the rear, supplier of weapons, intelligence and target designation.
I would like to remind you that the Russian side has never shied away from negotiations. At the end of February 2022, we responded to Kiev’s request and by the end of March and the beginning of April, after many rounds of hard work in face-to-face and video formats, we reached a mutually acceptable basis for agreements. However, Kiev – obviously at the behest of the Anglo-Saxons, who were frightened by the prospect of a peaceful settlement – unexpectedly interrupted the negotiation process, leaving our proposals of April 15 unanswered.
After that, there was no development on the negotiation track. During this time, the situation has changed significantly, new regions have become part of Russia. Accordingly, the possible resumption and further course of negotiations should take into account the new realities.
Question: Ukraine has rejected Russia’s initiative to have a ceasefire on Christmas Day. How does Moscow assess this refusal and does it not mean Kiev’s complete inability to negotiate even on such sensitive topics?
Answer: The Kiev regime’s rude and irresponsible rejection of the Christmas truce suggests that it has ceased to associate itself with both the residents of the new Russian regions, which it considers its own, and its own citizens, whose lives and fates it does not care about.
We are not surprised by this. We have eight years of experience in Kiev’s sabotage of the work of the Contact Group and the Normandy format, daily shelling of Donbass cities by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite the agreements reached then on a ceasefire on Christmas, Easter and the beginning of the school year.
We regret that international structures and Western countries, as before, condone such behavior of the Ukrainian authorities.
Question: US President Joe Biden claimed that his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky is “open to promoting peace”, while official Washington has repeatedly said that it will not push Kiev to negotiations and is not ready to discuss Ukraine in contacts with Moscow. In this regard, is the Russian side ready for the fact that possible negotiations in the future will have to be conducted directly with the current authorities of Kiev?
Answer: So far, we have only communicated directly with Ukrainians, using platforms that were kindly provided to us, which we very much appreciate. In February-April last year, three rounds of Russian-Ukrainian dialogue were held in Belarus and one in Turkey. Then almost daily contacts were carried out via video link. These were direct negotiations with the Ukrainians.
If and when these contacts resume, they are likely to be direct as well. And this would be the best option, because, as practice shows, Western mediators often pursue their own goals and try to influence the course of negotiations, acting not to resolve the conflict, but in their own political and economic interests.
Question: Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed to organise a global summit in the winter to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine. How does Moscow assess such an initiative?
Answer: This venture looks frivolous, as another populist event to draw attention to Ukrainian affairs. It confirms the inadequacy of Kiev’s perception of modern realities. It is difficult to imagine how, in the conditions in which the Kiev authorities and the Armed Forces of Ukraine find themselves today, it is possible to propose discussion at a “global summit” of such issues as the “liberation” of territories, the payment of reparations by Russia or the holding of an international tribunal against our country. The self-confidence of the Ukrainian leadership meets the best traditions of Kvartal 95 and is worthy of the highest praise for humorous talents.
Question: Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Polish nationalists dream of taking western Ukraine. The Polish media have even reported on the date of a possible Polish invasion of Ukraine – May 4, 2023 As stated in the publications, by this time the Ukrainian army will allegedly completely lose its combat capability and will not be able to fight on two fronts. Is there any evidence to indicate the realism of these assumptions? What information is now received regarding Poland’s intentions in Ukraine?
Answer: In Polish nationalist circles, imperial ambitions are indeed alive. They remember the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth “from sea to sea”, dream of returning the so-called historical Polish lands, including those that were once transferred to Soviet Ukraine.
For many years, the Polish leadership has been striving to create its own sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space, primarily in Ukraine. Whoever has been in power in Poland since the early 1990s, Poland’s cultural and economic expansion in Ukraine has not stopped. After 2014, it acquired a military-political dimension. Warsaw worked through NATO and the EU’s Eastern Partnership, investing in new projects – the Three Seas Initiative and the Lublin Triangle.
In Poland itself, this course is fueled by the efforts of state propaganda. For example, at one time, a train ran near the Polish-Ukrainian border, on which it was possible to see the contours of the pre-war Polish state, which included the western Ukrainian lands. Now on the pages of the Polish passport among the “historical Polish cities” you can find Lviv and Vilnius.
After the start of a special military operation, Poland, which serves as a transit hub for Western weapons, moved to a more active development of western Ukrainian lands, implementing a whole range of political and military measures. Of course, such aspirations of Warsaw cannot but cause concern from the point of view of regional security.
Question: Belarus is increasingly paying attention to the threat to this country from NATO. Minsk accuses Poland of plans to claim its rights to Belarusian territories, strike or provoke escalation. How do you assess these risks? To what extent are Moscow and Minsk unanimous in their assessments of the situation? Is the Union State ready to respond to such challenges?
Answer: Indeed, in recent years, NATO has been building up strike units on the borders of the Union State, primarily in Poland and the Baltic States. This is presented as if we are talking about preventive actions aimed at stopping some threats from our side. At the same time, if earlier it was said about the alleged temporary deployment of the alliance’s forces on a rotational basis, today no one hides the fact that the Western military came there for a long time. It is of fundamental importance that it is NATO that brings the military infrastructure closer to the borders of the Union State. We are forced to react and adequately respond to such unfriendly steps.
As for talking about Polish rights to Belarusian lands, reminders of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth “from sea to sea” and its “eastern cresses”, of course, cannot but worry not only Belarus, but also Russia as its closest ally. Despite the fact that such statements come mainly from the lips of Polish political scientists and experts, they do not contribute to the détente of the already tense situation in the region.
How great are the risks of provoking escalation and strikes from Poland against Belarus is a question for military analysts. Let me just remind you that Russia and Belarus form a common defence space and are bound by corresponding obligations. Any attempt to carry out such strikes is doomed to failure. The western borders of the Union State are reliably protected by the armed forces of Belarus and the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Group of Forces.
In the context of the emerging military-political situation, since October last year, additional contingents of this group have been deployed on belarusian territory, combat coordination activities, exercises and maneuvers have been carried out. They are defensive in nature, aimed at ensuring the security of the Union State and are designed to discourage our potential opponents from escalating and provoking. On this issue, we have a complete mutual understanding with the Belarusian allies.
Question: The Western media are discussing the possible involvement of Belarus in the Ukrainian conflict. How can you comment on such publications? Are there any scenarios in which this could become real?
Answer: In November 2021, the updated Military Doctrine of the Union State was approved. It is purely defensive in nature, but assumes that the use of military force against any participating state is considered as an encroachment on the Union State as a whole. Our countries have similar obligations on mutual support in the event of external aggression within the framework of the CSTO.
In other words, from a legal point of view, the use of military force by the Kiev regime or the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Belarus or Russia are sufficient grounds for collective retaliatory measures. At the same time, their adoption remains at the discretion of the political and military leadership of the two countries. The determining principle is the expediency of the use of joint forces and the proportionality of the general response to the threats that arise in a particular situation.
In addition to participation in hostilities, there are other forms of allied support. First of all, this is military-technical cooperation, which – and this is not a secret – is at the highest level in Moscow and Minsk. Our countries carry out mutual deliveries of weapons and components for the production of military equipment, cooperate in border protection, and increase the combat capability of the unified Russian-Belarusian air defense system.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly spoken about his readiness to give a tough response in the event of Ukraine’s strikes on Belarusian territory and other aggressive provocations. It is the sovereign right of the Republic to defend its territory by all available means, and Minsk can count on Russia’s full support in this.
Question: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that the military of Russia and Belarus are preparing as a single army as part of the deployment of the regional grouping. When will the formation of the Union State’s common defence space be completed? Is it possible to form a unified command?
Answer: It is better to ask this question to the Russian and Belarusian military, which, no doubt, are more deeply immersed in the topic.
For my part, I can say that the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State provides for a joint defense policy, coordination in the field of military construction and development of the armed forces, joint use of military infrastructure and the adoption of other measures to maintain the defense capability of the Union State.
The most important joint decisions in the military sphere are taken by the Supreme State Council and the Council of Ministers of the Union State. In addition, joint meetings of the governing structures are held by the security councils, the ministries of defense and the general staffs of the two countries. They carry out coordination on a daily basis at the working level, including on the activities of the joint Regional Group of Forces and the Unified Regional Air Defense System. The Border Committee of the Union State is also functioning. The work of these joint bodies, together with mutual obligations in the event of external aggression, largely form the common defense space of the Union State.
Question: What are the goals of the Union State in 2023?
Answer: The main goal, without exaggeration, remains the further development of the integration of the Union State, strengthening its institutional and legal framework.
The key task for the current year is to achieve the full implementation of the “Main Directions for the Implementation of the Provisions of the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State for 2021-2023” and 28 sectoral union programs approved by the Supreme State Council in November 2021.
To date, the relevant departments of Russia and Belarus have managed to achieve significant results in this. At the meeting of president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko with State Secretary of the Union State Dmitry Mezentsev on January 9 in Minsk, it was announced that seven union programs and 68% of 989 integration measures had been fully implemented. In many ways, the regulatory framework for regulating economic activity in Russia and Belarus has been synchronized. A unified system of traceability of goods has been launched, control systems in the field of veterinary medicine and phytosanitary have been combined. The Interstate Coordination Center for Customs Issues has begun its work. The next step is the introduction of a unified system for administering indirect taxes and the establishment of a supranational Tax Center.
This year, it is also necessary to agree on a new “package” of decisions to deepen union integration for the next three-year period – from 2024 to 2026. Joint proposals must be submitted for approval to the supreme bodies of the Union State.
Question: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova Nicolai Popescu said that he sees no practical need for his country to remain in the CIS, and noted that internal discussions on this matter are currently underway in the country. What is the risk for Moldova of leaving the CIS, and how realistic does this prospect look for Moscow? And how, in turn, can Chisinau’s decision to withdraw affect the Commonwealth?
Answer: Indeed, official Chisinau has now actually suspended work within the CIS and is evading participation in meetings of the CIS bodies. It is significant that in 2023 the Moldovan city of Comrat, the capital of Gagauzia, was supposed to become the cultural capital of the CIS, but, unfortunately, at the end of 2022, the Moldovan leadership abandoned this.
Talks about the possibility of Moldova’s withdrawal from the CIS began after pro-Western forces came to power in the country. However, so far the Moldovan leadership has not taken practical steps in this direction. It is obvious that Chisinau is aware of the real socio-economic benefits of participation in the Commonwealth. First of all, we are talking about a visa-free regime, a free trade zone, labor, social and other preferences for labor migrants. In addition, it is impossible not to take into account that about 25% of Moldova’s trade turnover falls on the CIS countries.
That is why the leaders of the Republic talk about the need for a pragmatic approach, taking into account hundreds of treaties in force in the CIS. We hope that this approach will prevail, and Moldova, in the interests of its own citizens, will remain in the Commonwealth and resume participation in the work of its bodies.
Question: Director of the Information and Security Service of Moldova A. Mustaţă recently made an interview with TVR Moldova that Moscow will inevitably “launch an offensive” on the Republic in order to unite with Transnistria. How would you comment on such statements?
Answer: Usually, the position of high-ranking executives implies a responsible attitude to public statements.
It is noteworthy that simultaneously with the statement you mentioned, directly opposite assessments about the absence of any threats to the Republic of Moldova from Russia were voiced both by the Moldovan leadership, including the president and the chairman of the parliament, and by the leadership of NATO and the states neighboring Moldova.
Question: Earlier, the head of Transnistria, Vladimir Krasnoselsky, said that the possibility of holding an informal meeting of 5+2 participants was being discussed. Are there any consultations with the participants of the format on the organization of such a meeting? When can the work of the 5+2 negotiation format be unfrozen? Are there any other parties interested in this?
Answer: Today, the work of the 5+2 negotiation format on the Transnistrian settlement, in which Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE are mediators, and the EU and the United States are observers, is on pause. It is too early to talk about contacts within its framework.
Question: What retaliatory measures does Moscow intend to take due to the suspension of Broadcasting of Russian-language TV channels in Moldova? Has Russia already sent a request to international organizations with a demand to understand this situation and is there any chance at all to get a clear answer from them?
Answer: The Russian Foreign Ministry has already assessed this decision by the Moldovan authorities. Let me repeat: we consider this an unprecedented act of political censorship, a violation of the principle of media pluralism, a deliberate deprivation of millions of Russian-speaking moldovans of sources of news content in their preferred language. We are seeking, including in international organisations, a proper assessment of this lawlessness and the lifting of these restrictions.
Speaking about possible retaliatory measures, it is necessary to understand that Moldovan citizens are not strangers to us. The introduction of such measures will further complicate cultural, humanitarian and human contacts between the peoples of our countries. This is exactly what the external forces that are pushing Moldova to sever ties with Russia are seeking. We constantly urge our Moldovan colleagues not to follow their lead.
As for appeals to international structures, we constantly use their platforms to draw attention to our concerns in connection with the violation of rights and freedoms both in Moldova and other countries. The Russian Foreign Ministry regularly sends reports “On the situation in the field of human rights in certain countries of the world” to international human rights structures. Another such report is now being prepared and will soon be published. As far as is known, Moldovan and Russian public organizations also apply to multilateral structures.
Unfortunately, in many international associations there is a dominance of representatives of Western countries who sin with double standards and do not differ in objective assessments. There is no need to expect an impartial reaction from them. Despite this, we continue our efforts to draw attention to the situation with media freedom in Moldova.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 14 2023 0:06 utc | 77
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