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U.S. To Send More Wunderwaffen To Ukraine
A new round of Wunderwaffen deliveries to Ukraine is taking place. It is unlikely to change the strategic or even operational picture of the war.
The U.S. and its 'allies' are engaged in a boil-the-frog operation in which they steadily increase the lethality and complexity of arms and other support they deliver to Ukraine. At some point in time this process will cross Russian red lines. That's when it will become really interesting …
The newest gimmick to be deployed is the Patriot air defense system likely soon to be followed by main battle tanks:
The U.S. is poised to approve sending a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine, finally agreeing to an urgent request from Ukrainian leaders desperate for more robust weapons to shoot down incoming Russian missiles, U.S. officials said Tuesday.
The approval is likely to come later this week and could be announced as early as Thursday, said three officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the decision is not final and has not been made public. Two of the officials said the Patriot will come from Pentagon stocks and be moved from another country overseas.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed Western leaders as recently as Monday to provide more advanced weapons to help his country in its war with Russia. The Patriot would be the most advanced surface-to-air missile system the West has provided to Ukraine to help repel Russian aerial attacks.
During a video conference on Monday, Zelenskyy told host Germany and other leaders of the Group of Seven industrial powers that his country needed long-range missiles, modern tanks, artillery, missile batteries and other high-tech air defense systems to counter Russian attacks that have knocked out electricity and water supplies for millions of Ukrainians.
He acknowledged that, “Unfortunately, Russia still has an advantage in artillery and missiles.”
Well, yes, the artillery advantage the Russian army has in the current battle for Bakhmut is nine to one or even higher:
“For every artillery piece we have, they have nine,” said one soldier.
NATO no longer has the equipment and ammunition reserves to change that.
As for the Patriot, the "Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target": Training for them takes quite some time and unless Ukrainians have already been secretly trained on them for several months they will have to be deployed with NATO soldiers or 'former' soldiers to have any effect:
Asked about training, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said that in general the U.S. takes those needs into consideration when providing complicated weapons systems to Ukraine, such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS. Currently U.S. forces are training Ukrainian troops on a number of systems, including the HIMARS, in other European countries, such as Germany.
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The entire system, which includes a phased array radar, a control station, computers and generators, typically requires about 90 soldiers to operate and maintain, however only three soldiers are needed to actually fire it, according to the Army.
The HIMARS missiles, the previous Wunderwaffen, are now routinely shot down by Russian missile and air defense systems:
The anti-aircraft defence forces shot down two drones in the areas of Zhytlovka and Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic).
In addition, two HIMARS MLRS rounds were intercepted near Perovomaysk (Lugansk People's Republic) and a HARM rocket near Makarovka (Kherson region).
The Patriot battery to be deployed to Ukraine is likely one of those that the U.S. currently has in Poland. A German Patriot unit will be deployed to replace it.
The phased array radar that Patriot systems use are good but they are also a weakness. They are visible from satellites with Synthetic Aperture Radar. As researchers have found some years ago:
Amid a busy few weeks of nuclear-related news, an Israeli researcher made a very surprising OSINT discovery that flew somewhat under the radar. As explained in a Medium article, Israeli GIS analyst Harel Dan noticed that when he accidentally adjusted the noise levels of the imagery produced from the SENTINEL-1 satellite constellation, a bunch of colored Xs suddenly appeared all over the globe.
SENTINEL-1’s C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) operates at a centre frequency of 5.405 GHz, which conveniently sits within the range of the military frequency used for land, airborne, and naval radar systems (5.250-5.850 GHz)—including the AN/MPQ-53/65 phased array radars that form the backbone of a Patriot battery’s command and control system. Therefore, Harel correctly hypothesized that some of the Xs that appeared in the SENTINEL-1 images could be triggered by interference from Patriot radar systems.
Using this logic, he was able to use the Xs to pinpoint the locations of Patriot batteries in several Middle Eastern countries, including Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
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While SENTINEL-1 images of Ukraine will now likely be censored there is no need for Russia to use those. It has its own SAR systems:
Kondor, GRAU index 14F133, is a series of Earth imaging or military reconnaissance satellites developed by NPO Mashinostroyeniya for the Russian Aerospace Defence Forces which in 2015 became the Russian Space Forces and export customers.
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Kondor satellites are equipped to carry either synthetic aperture radar or electro-optical imaging payloads, with the first satellite, and are launched using the Strela carrier rocket, developed by NPO Mashinostroyeniya from retired UR-100 NUTTKh missiles.
Process the SAR data, look for 'noise' crosses, program the coordinates into a number of suicide drones of Iranian design and send them off. This should take no more than an hour. The Russian Reconnaissance Strike Complex is designed to do that:
The Reconnaissance Strike Complex (разведивательно-ударный комплех-RYK) was designed for the coordinated employment of high-precision, long- range weapons linked to real-time intelligence data and precise targeting provided to a fused intelligence and fire-direction center. The RYK functioned at operational depths using surface-to-surface missile systems and aircraft-delivered “smart” munitions. The Reconnaissance Fire Complex (разведивательно-огновой комплех ROK) was the tactical equivalent.
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The Reconnaissance Fire System (ROS) is designed to detect, engage and destroy enemy targets in near-real time within the range of tactical units (maneuver battalion and brigade with supporting artillery). On occasion, an artillery brigade or helicopter gunship brigade (a tactical/operational formation) could conduct ROS missions. However, Army Corps and Army Group units normally conduct RYS missions-engaging, detecting and destroying operational targets in near-real time using longer-range reconnaissance and strike systems (especially SSM and aviation systems).
Will the Patriot radar move during the Russian reaction time interval between reconnaissance and strike? I have my doubts.
Wikipedia says that a Patriot battery costs about $1 billion. The radar is the thing that makes these so expensive. Each of its missile costs about $3 million. The suicide drones are maybe $10,000 each. Now do the math …
The most modern missiles Patriot system use have a maximum reach of some 60 kilometer (37 miles). One battery can thus cover a bubble with a 120 kilometer diameter. It may be good for Kiev or Odessa but is nothing that will solve the general military problem Ukraine has.
The Russian forces are superior in technology, personnel and fire power. There is no chance, and never has been, for Ukraine to win that match. No Wunderwaffen, British marines with sea drones or U.S. Patriot systems, will change those basic facts.
We are not opposed by the Ukrainian army »: Kadyrov’s assistant Apti Alaudinov in an interview with RT — on the fight against NATO and the course of the SVO
During the special operation, Russia is fighting NATO, and not Ukraine, said Assistant to the Head of Chechnya and Special Forces Commander « Akhmat » Apti Alaudinov in an interview with RT Arabic military commander Sargon Haday. According to him, without the support of the United States and Europe, Ukrainian armed groups will not last a day against the Russian armed forces. He also pointed out that the Russian military is much better physically and psychologically prepared for warfare than militants from Western countries.
— According to intelligence, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson, transfer their forces and equipment to this direction. How serious is this now?
— What they could transfer to our site, they have already thrown. I want to note: we felt that a very large amount of technology and manpower was thrown. And, of course, most of this technique and manpower have already been destroyed by us. For literally three weeks, we destroyed about 50 tanks and the same amount of armored vehicles.
That is, we got the following picture: the transfer by Ukrainian formations of their manpower and equipment to our — site for us, on the contrary, it benefited. Because we have an active opportunity to destroy the maximum amount of this all. Today we clearly orient ourselves where the enemy has what. For ourselves, we are ready to reflect any counteroffensive action. But we do not let the enemy make decisions and move in our direction, because daily we ourselves move forward.
— We hear very often about foreign mercenaries — Poles, Americans, British and others. Is there any data on numbers? And anyway, what are they doing here — unlike the APU?
— It is necessary to tell the truth about foreign mercenaries.
I believe that there are no foreign mercenaries on our site. What is called « foreign mercenaries », — are representatives of the troops, representatives of the NATO bloc states that are opposed to Russia today.
Because we must understand that the high-precision equipment that is transferred by the same NATO bloc here so that it is used by Ukrainian units against Russia cannot be studied in one day.
The equipment is being transferred, and along with the equipment, specialists who are representatives of the NATO bloc troops are transferred. Therefore, there is already a clear picture for us. We understand that both Ukrainian formations and the NATO bloc itself can do absolutely nothing to oppose our formations and units. Yes, all this economy was abandoned against us with all these specialists who spoke different languages of the world. But they were calmly ground by us and sent mostly from here by cargo 200, and the remaining — cargo 300. It doesn’t matter to us what nationality the enemy is opposed to us. Most importantly, we clearly know for ourselves what we should do with it.
— So we are fighting with NATO, in fact?
— The fact that we are fighting with the NATO bloc probably does not even need to be explained to anyone. Because any sane person, if he looks at the situation that is happening today, should perfectly understand that the same, say, HIMARS shelling… After all, the HIMARS rocket itself — is just an ordinary piece of iron. But if it is adjusted precisely by GPS ( navigation systems that are the property of America ), then this is already a weapon that is high-precision. All these shelling, all these terrorist acts, all these technical innovations — this is all the use of the forces and means of the NATO bloc.
— How is this special operation different from classical wars? We see very large batteries using artillery. You just mentioned GPS, and there are also drones.
— There has never been such an intensity of artillery duel. There have never been such a number of shells fired at one site of the territory. Naturally, it should be noted the use of a very large number of high-tech tools.
In fact, we understand that if earlier humanity started with copies, bows and arrows, today the role of man is slowly no longer important. Yes, we need a drone operator, yes, we need a person who knows how to use high-tech weapons. But man himself directly at the forefront is already of minimal importance.
— It’s almost mid-December, winter. Very different opinions about the activity of hostilities. Someone says: « We are waiting for frosts ». Someone says: « No, we are waiting for spring ». What is the role of the weather in hostilities?
— For us, as specialists, it does not matter what the weather is on the street. We are ready to fight all four seasons — for any dirt, for any frost. Because we are very well equipped. I can note that such equipment, such food, such uniforms for all occasions, as we probably do not have anyone. Therefore, those states that are not ready for such frosts begin to analyze this situation in the format of weather, frost, and dirt. It doesn’t matter to us.
— Are there any difficulties in terms of life, ammunition, weapons? Still, everything is not perfect.
— Everything is not perfect. Everything is perfect and cannot be. Everything will not be perfect, even if there is summer, heat + 40 ° C. The point is not what conditions are given to us by the Almighty. It all lies in how much we ourselves are internally prepared for these situations. And we are ready for any turn of events.
Yes, if you try, say, on a large scale, naturally, tanks, equipment will be stuck, because dirt. But that is the military strategy to calculate the conditions and capabilities of their technology and directly human. Somewhere to sit and cry, that there is dirt on the street, so I can’t go, — this is one picture. Somewhere to sit and cry, which is cold outside, — is the second picture. Another thing is when we predict in advance that there will be a dirt season or a frost season, and we are preparing our units for warfare in the conditions that we expect, we forecast.
— How is coordination between the Allied forces carried out? Between the special forces, the army, the PMC « Wagner », who also work here. The media is talking about disagreements. How can you rate this?
— I would not say that we have any disagreements with anyone at all. We even had a kind of symbiosis with the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic: we have already become a single organism. We have been keeping up with each other for a long time.
We have the last one and a half to two months located PMC « Wagner ». These are working guys who are very professional in doing their job. We feel like two very close units. Because they are aimed at working, and we are aimed at working. Each of us is busy with our own business. Which gives a very good result.
It should be noted that a very clear interaction has been established between all departments. This is precisely the result of the fact that we have already completely managed to orient ourselves who is responsible for which site, who can take on what exactly cannot be left to another unit. Therefore, I believe that these issues are already in the past. Even if there were any misunderstandings between some units before, today it is already in the past.
— Is it possible to talk about any promotion dates? At least about the terms of the liberation of LPR and DPR, Zaporozhye, Kherson region, which are already part of the Russian Federation?
— Some people have a habit: if somewhere the enemy comes — everyone rushes into a panic on this side and says: « That’s it, here the opponent went, we can’t stop him! Ay-ah-ah, oh-oh-oh! » No. The enemy will advance — in our direction and we will advance in the direction of the enemy until the fracture itself occurs. A fracture will occur when the enemy’s resources and our resources… At a certain period of time, a clear understanding should come for us, whose resource turned out to be longer, who turned out to be more hardy. Whose resource was better calculated. Who could better develop an additional resource by the time when a certain part of our forces and assets had already waned. These are all the subtleties of — they will ultimately decide which of us will win.
And not that someone there was some kind of piece of land from someone he won off or, as they say, freed. That is not the point. The essence of — which of us is better prepared psychologically.
Psychologically, we are much better prepared because we are ready to go to the end. It doesn’t matter what form this conflict takes: even if it turned into a nuclear war, we are ready to go all the way. But the question is whether Europe is ready to go this way to the end, is America and their armies ready to go all the way, which, if they don’t bring beer on Friday, they sit down and pour tears that they did not bring beer.
Our army — is an army that is tempered so that we can not eat or drink. We can fight this way. We may not eat or drink, but because of this we will not leave our position, we will not run away and cry. But the question is: can Americans and Europeans fight like this? A very specific answer will be. Can not. We know that. Because they are psychologically very weak people.
— What does this conflict mean strategically for the Russian army?
— This is a decisive factor for the state of Russia itself. Today the question is whether the state of Russia will continue on the world stage. Today, fate is decided. When we say « Satanism » and « God’s values »… Note that a very large connection is obtained between Russia directly and God’s values — and Satanism, which today completely absorbed all European states and America.
Today there is a war between good and evil, between the army of God and the army of the devil. Naturally, strategically, we must put the Russian state — and the rest of the states that today go under the flags of LGBT people on the same scale.
So answer yourself. Strategically, — to be or not to be — is the question that today stands before the state of Russia, the Russian army and armed groups. And today we are standing in a position that says: Russia to be! Nothing in this world can break our will to what Russia will be. There will be God’s values. And that army, which follows the paths of Satan, lives according to his commandments, under the flags of LGBT people, — it will lose. I think this is a full answer.
— Is it worth expecting a New Year’s gift in the near future, some surprises?
— I will say so. In order to make New Year’s gifts — we are not Santa Claus. But we do our work, we do it daily.
The leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the leadership of the Russian state and, first of all, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief set the task for us in such a way that we do our work in such a way that our fighters do not die in droves. For us, task number one — saving the lives of our fighters. We have no hurry. Why? Because, I repeat, the army is not opposed to us by the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army today — if because of its back to remove America and Europe — is not enough even for one day against us. A total NATO bloc confronts us.
And we must understand that to make some kind of sharp jerk when the NATO bloc confronts us, to get somewhere, to destroy this number of our fighters ( when we know, that we must pull this conflict for the long term and win the endurance ), — we do not need such hasty decisions.
Therefore, in the end there will be one big gift — it will be a victory for Russia. But there is no need to make small gifts at the current stages.
Posted by: Exile | Dec 15 2022 10:36 utc | 299
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