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Ukraine SitRep – Counter Artillery War – Financial Disaster
Since the mid of the year it has become clear that the war in Ukraine is one that is mainly fought by artillery.
Ukraine was clearly the underdog in that fight as the Russian forces fired eight times the amount of artillery munitions the Ukraine could make available. The U.S. and some European dependents stepped in. Some 120 M-777 guns and a myriad of modern track mounted artillery systems were given to the Ukrainian army. Hundred of tons of ammunition were moved in. The U.S. and some allies delivered HIMARS systems that could reach beyond the limits of gun artillery.
The Russian military reacted to it. It dispersed its depots and command centers thereby limiting the number of targets for HIMARS systems. It also intensified its use of electronic warfare which took down the drones the Ukrainian artillery used to find its targets:
The electronic suppression of Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles blunted one of Kyiv’s biggest advantages in the early months of the war. The Ukrainians counted on superior intelligence—largely provided by UAVs—to make their smaller artillery arsenal more precise than Russia’s own, larger arsenal of big guns and rocket-launchers.
But the Russians’ electronic warfare prevented those drones from navigating and communicating—and deprived the Ukrainians of the precision they were counting on. “The defeat of precision was critical to unit survival” for the Russians, analysts Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained in a study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.
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“The average life-expectancy of a quadcopter remained around three flights,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote. “The average life-expectancy of a fixed-wing UAV was around six flights” and, “in aggregate, only around a third of UAV missions can be said to have been successful.”
Lacking real fighting capabilities the Ukrainian artillery switched towards easier fixed targets. In late November it again started to intensely bombard Donetsk city with artillery and missiles. As there are few military installations or even barracks within the city this clearly was a war against its civilian population.
'Western' map showing impacts in Donetsk city – December 1
Source: Live UA map – biggerDecember 5
Source: Live UA map – biggerDecember 18
Source: Live UA map – bigger
Russian language papers wrote about the civilian casualties caused by the carnage. The political leadership of the Donetsk Republic requested an urgent operation against the threat.
As the heavily fortified frontline makes it impossible to quickly break through and hunt the artillery behind that line, the Russian military moved to other measures. A special cell was created to wage the fight against Ukrainian artillery around Donetsk. More counter artillery radars were moved in. More satellite picture interpreters began to look for firing positions. Longer range counter battery guns also appeared.
Over the last ten days the campaign began to show significant results. Many of the recent daily reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense noted the results of this anti-artillery campaign. Here is yesterday's one:
Within the counterbattery warfare, one U.S.-manufactured M-777 artillery system has been detected and destroyed near Netaylovo along with its crew that had shelled residential areas in Donetsk. Another M-777 artillery system has been destroyed near Preobrazhenka (Zaporozhye region).
One Uragan and two Grad multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) have been destroyed near Nevskoye (Lugansk People's Republic) and Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic).
Two Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems have been destroyed at their firing positions near Krasnogorovka and Prechistovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
Four Msta-B and two D-20 howitzers have been destroyed near Kupyansk (Kharkov region), Velikaya Novosyolka (Donetsk People's Republic) and Novogrigorovka (Kherson region).
Air defence facilities have shot down three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Olginka, Guselskoye (Donetsk People's Republic) and Peremozhnoye (Zaporozhye region).
In addition, two Uragan MLRS have been intercepted near Kostogryzovo (Kherson region), and three U.S.-manufactured HARM anti-radiation missiles near Debaltsevo (Donetsk People's Republic).
And this one from today:
Within the counterbattery warfare, two U.S.-manufactured M-777 artillery systems, and one German-manufactured FH-70 howitzer, that were used for shelling residential areas of Donetsk, have been destroyed at their firing positions near Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
Three Ukrainian fighting vehicles for Grad multiple-launch rocket systems have been destroyed near Seversk.
Three Ukrainian Msta-B howitzers have been destroyed near Petropavlovka (Kharkov region), Berestovoye (Donetsk People's Republic), and Chernobayevka (Kherson region).
Ukrainian D-20 and D-30 howitzers have been destroyed near Georgiyevka and Maryinka (Donetsk People's Republic).
Another reports says that the reaction time between detecting and submitting target coordinates to active counter fire is down to two minutes. The setup and displacement time for a M-777 howitzer are each at least three minutes with a fully manned and well trained crew. When radar detects a firing Ukrainian M-777 the Russian response now comes in before the gun could be moved out.
The counter battery campaign can now be called a full success. The last Ukrainian artillery impact in Donetsk city was reported on December 23. The campaign will have to continue until the Ukraine runs out of guns. Up to now the Ukrainians fire still more ammunition than the 'west' can produce:
“Ukrainian artillery use, conservatively, is probably around maybe 90,000 rounds per month,” Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a Virginia research institute, said last week on the “War on the Rocks” podcast. “That’s a lot more than anybody makes in the West right now. So all of this has been coming out of stocks, which is like going through your saving accounts.”
With less guns available on the Ukrainian side the need for new ammunition will decrease.
That is bad news for those Ukrainians who man the frontline trenches. The heavy artillery fire they are under will only intensify and increase their already very high losses. In some time and some places the lines will break and leave space for the Russian military to move through.
The current fighting is concentrated around Bakhmut/Artyomovsk. The Ukrainian command has thrown in reserves to hold the city.
Source: Military Land – bigger
Under permanent Russia artillery fire the sixteen brigades currently deployed in and behind Bakhmut will be decimated one by one. It is a slow fight where the lines move only little by little in favor of the Russian side. But it is very effective battle in a war designed to demilitarize Ukraine. Due to very uneven artillery fight the Ukrainian losses will be many times higher than the Russian ones.
On the economic side the Ukraine has already lost the war. It is living off loans from 'western' governments it will surely default on:
The Ukrainian government has struggled to raise money on bond markets during the war and is paying investors more than it is collecting, according to a Central Bank statement that points to the country’s deepening dependence on foreign aid.
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The economy has been projected to shrink about 40 percent this year, drying up tax revenue and indefinitely delaying previously planned spending that would have spurred growth.
The Central Bank statement, published on Monday, pointed to a less visible side of Ukraine’s financing shortfalls caused by the war: an inability to raise money on the market. Since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, Ukraine has not been able to roll over debt accumulated before the war. The country paid investors about $2.2 billion more than it collected in bond sales in that time, the Central Bank said.
All of that has left Ukrainian public finance, which has been wobbly at the best of times in the post-independence period, deeply reliant on assistance from the United States, the European Union, European countries that donate individually and other donors.
Even the U.S. controlled IMF is unwilling to throw more money into that black hole:
The budget passed by Ukraine’s Parliament for next year includes a deficit of about $36 billion. About half of the planned expenditures are for the army, the police and other military outlays. The deficit this year has run even higher, at about $5 billion a month.
The International Monetary Fund, which bailed out Ukraine through a long run of post-independence financial crises, has not continued large-scale lending during the war.
“They are worried about debt sustainability,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former economy minister who is a professor at the Kyiv School of Economics. “If the I.M.F. is worried about debt sustainability and ability to finance, imagine what private investors are thinking.”
In contrast international trade with Russia has been booming this year and its financial numbers, recently mentioned by its president Putin, look better than those in the 'west':
First, the predicted economic collapse did not happen. True, we have posted a decline, and I will repeat the figures. There have been promises – or predictions or hopes maybe – that Russia’s economy will contract. Some said its GDP would drop by 20 percent or more, by 20–25 percent. True, there is a decline in GDP, but not 20–25 percent; it is in fact 2.5 percent. That is the first thing.
Second. Inflation, as I said, will be a little more than 12 percent this year – it is one of the most important indicators, too. This, I think, is much better than in many other countries, including the G20 countries. Inflation is not good of course, but it being smaller than in other countries is good.
Next year – we have mentioned this, too – we will strive for the 4–5 percent target, based on the economy's performance in the first quarter – at least, we hope so. And this is a very good trend, unlike in some other G20 countries, where inflation is on the rise.
Unemployment is at a historic low of 3.8 percent. We are running a budget deficit, this is true, but it is only 2 percent this year, next year too, then it is projected at one percent, and less than one percent in 2025: we are expecting about 0.8 percent. I would like to point out that other countries – both large developing economies and the so-called developed market economies – are running a much greater deficit. In the United States, I think, it is 5.7 percent, and in China, it is over 7 percent. All major economies are running deficits above 5 percent. We are not.
This is a good foundation for moving confidently into 2023.
When the war ends the Ukraine will have an incredible amount of debt that it will not be able to pay for in generations. It will have no more land to sell off to foreigners and no industry left that will be of any value.
The people who had thought up, designed and implemented the 'western' sanction war against Russia have done more damage to Ukraine and the 'west' that anyone had imagined. But they utterly failed to hurt Russia. They should all be fired for their demonstrated incompetence.
Yet another example of sanctions boosting Russia’s economy is provided by this transcript of the Launch of the Titan-Polymer Plant in Pskov Putin presided over. Again, details of how Russia’s political economy works are discussed within the overall discourse and are actually very revealing:
Denis Manturov: Thank you very much, Mr President.
You gave a separate instruction to increase production in small and medium-tonnage chemistry by 35 percent by 2025. This I can say that the industry is fulfilling the task at an increasing pace. Last year, volumes increased by almost seven percent, and this year we predict already plus 12 percent.
In fact, the sanctions imposed on our country by unfriendly countries, motivated our chemists to go deeper production chains even faster, master new niches in terms of basic raw materials for related industries, starting with the chemical complex itself, pharmaceuticals up to the food industry, various sectors of mechanical engineering, industry, building materials and radio electronics. In such a way In a broad reversal, we have updated the list of priority projects, specified the plan of import substitution.
To stimulate the development of new ones The Government has decided on tax preferences for this industry. It’s about applying a coefficient of 1.5 for expenses of the enterprise for research in the calculation of income tax. And in turn, on the part of the state in this four billion rubles were subsidized on R&D. As a result, almost 40 agreements on the establishment of production of previously unproduced products of small and medium-tonnage chemistry.
Based on the results of the study with the industry community, State Duma committees, Council We have allocated 22 food chains to the Federation. They will become the main priority to support production. critical import-substituting products. In the next two years, we will do this at the expense of a specialized federal project.
Besides we expect the majority of businesses will use the mechanism of the cluster investment platform, which you, Mr President, we have recently supported it. He will work from the new year. Among these projects – production, in particular, terephthalic acid. It will serve raw materials for the production of PET granules, including at the facilities of Titan-Polymer in Moglino. This is just one example of the production chains that we deploy to create our own raw materials. Base.
And I would like, of course, to take this opportunity to thank both the leadership of the region and the owners of the enterprise. There were different difficulties along the way, but common We are able to launch this project.
Thank you.
Vladimir Putin: Thank you.
Please, Mikhail Alexandrovich Sutyaginsky.
Maxim Sutyaginsky: Good afternoon, Mr President, Denis Valentinovich!
I welcome you to the opening of the plant “Titanium-Polymer”.
In 2019 Titan Group of Companies has started the implementation of this investment project to create an import-substituting production of biaxially oriented (biaxially oriented) film and polyethylene terephthalate, PET granules, in the special economic zone “Moglino” of the Pskov region.
Creating this production became possible thanks to the support of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia and personally Denis Valentinovich Manturov, for what Special thanks to the Export Insurance Agency of Russia, the Industrial Development Fund, Gazprombank, as well as the Government of the Pskov Region. At This scientific support of the project is carried out by the St. Petersburg Mining University.
The most important moment for us today: we we are launching the first stage of this industrial cluster. This is primarily production. BOPET films. I want to note that this is only part of this integrated industrial cluster, in which more than 10 billion rubles have already been invested. The second part is another 10 billion rubles, will be invested. Funding has already been received, and we have the opportunity to implement second stage.
We also plan to open an engineering center, where young specialists from all over the country will be able to work here, in Pskov Area, develop and produce new polymer materials, to develop the chemical industry of Russia.
We intend to implement this project until 2025. We have already created 270 jobs. More 90 percent are local, Pskov people. It is planned that with a full output of 72 thousand tons of film – these are two lines – we will cover the needs of ours, domestic 100 percent of consumers. See also at least 30 percent of exports. Thanks to the automated system process control we can to produce a fairly wide range of products films and we plan to develop more new ones types of films so that they can be expanded industry applications.
The technological process includes three stages. Extrusion phase: the initial processing of raw materials is underway. On it the so-called film composition is formed. At the second stage, the very formation of the BOPET film occurs through its transverse and longitudinal drawing. On the latter stage, when winding the film on the uterus to the required parameters, the film due to its automatic processing goes to the primary cutting. And from the primary cutting it takes on the number of cuttings that allows us to carry out metallization, lamination and other processes according to the orders that have already been received as applications for our production. That is, we plan that about 40-45 thousand tons together. with the CIS countries – we will completely close this market. We do not call it exports, because we know that for us exports are something that is not included in the CIS countries.
Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, I would like to note that that this is an environmentally friendly enterprise. We have 100 meters sanitary protection zone, the third hazard class, and 100 percent waste-free production. We are all waste that is generated in the process recycling, sent to recycling. And after Once we gain experience, we will still take secondary raw materials from the market for its processing – up to 15 percent.
It’s we have a programme with the government of the Pskov Region. Since we have done this project, we plan to continue here to develop low-tonnage chemistry.
Vladimir Putin: Mikhail Alexandrovich, what is this product, this film different from other materials of this kind?
Maxim Sutyaginsky: In general, the film is unique, Mr President.
First, in terms of barrier properties, there are no analogues in Russian production. For example, for foods in which it will be used, makes it possible to extend the shelf life of perishable products by almost 21 days. If the products are frozen – up to 46 months makes it possible to extend the term shelf life. That is, oxygen does not penetrate. inside and does not allow this product to deteriorate.
Also, its light permeability is the same as that of glass. Now we are working with the Mining University to ensure that we can It was to release the film – we now have intermediate results – when we save energy losses by up to 20 percent. But we want to raise this one. the bar is up to 40-60 percent, and in winter or summer energy saving will be up to 60 percent. We will produce less cold air conditioners or less heat, for so that you can keep the heat in the house.
With today’s experiment, we still have it. didn’t finish – as soon as we worked it out practice, including due to the material base that is in the Mining [University], we are already seeing this scientific groundwork and we hope we will achieve [of the result]. I believe that for our industry this is in principle very importantly.
If we talk about directions, then when we finish building the second stage, in aggregate it will give us unlimited possibilities in composites, in compounds – unlimited application.
Vladimir Putin: Mikhail Alexandrovich, what is good about the technology being implemented? What is its innovative essence?
Maxim Sutyaginsky: Vladimir Vladimirovich, this line contains the best achievements to date. Into one Passage we can do chemical treatment on film, we can do coronation, we can set new properties due to the pinning of the so-called chemical additives in this film, already reaching the specified parameters. And the fact that [produced] pointwise with fine-tuning, – we have here there is a special workshop where we can finish.
Today there are two manufacturers in the Russian Federation. But the possibilities to to produce eight microns, no one has, and 125 microns is the production range today Films. That is, this is the widest range, and this is the highest quality. We don’t have that quality.
Vladimir Putin: I understand. And the elements of state support, instruments of state support did you use this project?
Maxim Sutyaginsky: Of course.
First, thanks. for being in a special economic zone received all those benefits that today according to our state support has a zone.
Second, we got a great start from the Industrial Development Fund. We are at the start of this made it possible to do both design, and the order of equipment that is manufactured long enough. This initial support gave us the opportunity to start.
Of course, we collected everything along the way: the pandemic, all the sanctions that were in place. Denis Valentinovich spoke briefly about this. But with The support that was provided to us by the Ministry of Industry and Trade is difficult to overestimate, to be honest, because we are now implementing the following projects. We’ve got two more now. billion rubles of money for PET granules – a plant that we will start building from the new year. It’s very cool.
Then Export Insurance Agency to Us insured completely the entire loan, all resources from possible, as we understand now, risks, if suddenly something goes wrong somewhere – at least according to the business plan, which is planned.
Therefore, in principle, I am grateful to Gazprombank, because it was very prompt. worked in that regard. They also accompany us with the financing of the project for the next 10 billion rubles.
Vladimir Putin: All right. Thank you.
Please, Mikhail Yurievich.
Maxim Vedernikov: Good Day, Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich,
First of all, I want to thank you, the Government of the Russian Federation. The Federation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade for systemic support of our region and the opportunity to implement new projects.
The launch of Titan-Polymer is important an event for our entire Pskov region. This is an anchor resident, as already mentioned, special moglino economic zone, which will play an important role in the development of the economy of the entire region.
First of all, it is, of course, a significant investment: 10 billion invested, 10 is planned to be invested before the end of the project. These are high-performance jobs for our region, and this is also very important. 270 people the company is already working, and by the end of the last stage it is planned that the company will work more than 500 employees. Average salary – 43 thousand rubles, which is 14 percent higher than the average for the region.
And most importantly, tax revenues by 2025 will amount to 117 million [rubles] to the regional budget and about six billion to the federal budget. And after the launch of the second stage of deductions will grow many times by the end of 2030 will amount to more than 20 billion rubles to the budgets of all levels.
In the future, it is planned to create an industrial technopark, development related industries. This is very important – what you said – it will allow small and medium-sized businesses to be included in production cooperation and will provide additional support. about two thousand jobs.
All of it becomes possible largely due to the implementation by the Pskov region of an individual program of socio-economic development, as we call it for short – IPSER.
Denis Valentinovich Special words of gratitude to Manturov for his help in the preparation and defense of this program. It allows us to create the necessary infrastructure both here in Moglino and for housing construction. the ability to support large investments projects in agriculture. The Ministry of Industry and Trade helped us separately from its own funds significantly update the bus fleet of the region.
Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, IPSER is a key and effective development tool for Pskov region. Now the program is calculated until 2024 inclusive. I would like to ask instructions to the Government to consider this issue and extend it. it is valid until 2030.
It involves 10 regions with the lowest level of socio-economic security. Funding for the program is not that big for the federal budget, but as I said, federal the funds will be returned multiples in the form of tax revenues from new ones enterprises, and regions, respectively, will receive a powerful impetus to development.
Thank you very much for your attention.
Thank you very much again for your support and we We are still waiting for you in our region, especially since next year the Pskov-Pechersk Monastery will celebrate its 550th anniversary. You know.
Vladimir Putin: Thank you Great. I definitely will, for sure.
Maxim Vedernikov: Thank you.
Vladimir Putin: Denis Valentinovich, as about the sequel Program?
Denis Manturov: Vladimir Vladimirovich, in fact, I would like to fulfill the task that we originally set by 2024. In the Government, I mean 10 regions with a lower socioeconomic level of development than the national average. But some measures of course, it would probably be appropriate to maintain support.
I will certainly report to Prime Minister Mikhail Vladimirovich, We will consult, because even if such a decision is made, it is not for one region, but for all ten.
I very much hope and am confident that in 2024 we will get the desired result and switch to the normal mode. So give us a chance to work it out, we’ll report back to you.
But in any case, all those measures that are currently used by the region, they can be used after 2024. These are both development institutions and fiscal measures. Support. But we will work separately.
Vladimir Putin: All right. Consult with colleagues and then report to me the proposals.
Denis Manturov: Absolutely.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mikhail Alexandrovich, please pass it on to you. word.
Maxim Sutyaginsky: Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!
Now the production of BOPET films is ready for launch. Will you allow me to start the launch?
Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon. Let’s get to work.
Maxim Sutyaginsky: Colleagues, start!
Clearly, Russia’s import substitution and technological sovereignty programs are making great strides. Soon Russia will run out of workers as those neighboring CIS nations whose residents often fill migratory work in Russia will begin to remain as their home nations’s economies also expand as they also implement similar programs. One of the EAEU provisions is similar to that of the EU regarding labor’s freedom of movement. What we’re seeing being built is similar to the USSR, but it isn’t the USSR–it’s much better in a plethora of ways. Want to escape Western Neoliberalism? Go West or East Young People to Eurasia and learn Russian or Mandarin along the way.
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 28 2022 23:43 utc | 122
Ramsey Glissadevil@150,
I don’t have the same certitude about what a plausible timetable looks like the way RSH presents it @154, respectfully, but I agree that 5 years at the pace that this is currently going seems unsustainable for Ukraine, no matter any indirect assistance provided by its Western sponsors. Thus, to draw it out for 5 years would presumably necessitate a deescalation on the part of Russia, ergo some sort of provisional cease-fire. At that point, I think the biggest challenge would be a political one — political forces within the country would use such a cease-fire agreement to challenge the ruling elites, and they would have significant public support to do so. In such a scenario, I don’t think your follow-up questions apply, since the biggest obstacles would presumably revolve around political turmoil, while practical expenses relating to the unresolved conflict would decrease.
As RSH said, direct NATO involvement would imply an all-out war, at which one needs to consider the totality of resources that Russia can employ to counteract it — so that even a failure to resist NATO in a conventional war, inevitably leads to a nuclear exchange. Questions about the economy or sustainability of human resources matter very little at that point.
However, I guess one shouldn’t discount the possibility of the conflict gradually expanding to include other East European states, such as Moldova, Romania and Poland, without direct NATO intervention. Such a development would undoubtedly extend the time-frame further within the organizational framework currently employed by Russia — that is, without necessitating significant additional escalation. Supposing then that Poland joins the war on its own initiative and without direct support from NATO, just as Ukraine is about ready to give up the ghost, with Russia electing to continue fighting at the same pace, to be reinforced by Romania in much the same way when Poland is burnt out, one might be able to squeeze a few more years out of this scenario.
In theory, Russia could sustain decades of annual limited mobilization within the current format, going by the official numbers. Supposedly, they’ve tapped into 1,5-3% of their human resources and, evidently, with major exceptions made for students and professions critical to the functioning of the civilian economy. A second wave of mobilization would be very illustrative in determining the effectiveness of subsequent mobilizations, since the first wave uncovered organizational discrepancies which are meant to have been resolved as part of the process, and with both Russian and Western press focusing on the various problems at play, naturally for different reasons, the real picture of the process was in a sense obfuscated.
In other words, in terms of practical considerations and going by observation of a single imperfect sample, there are no obvious barriers to conducting limited mobilizations in order to sustain a conflict of this size in perpetuity. In reality, there are clearly other factors at play which would ultimately determine how sustainable such a course of action would be; in particular, the societal perception of the necessity of such a decision. The direct involvement of other East European states would alleviate that somewhat, but unless enemy formations are drawn onto Russian territory proper there’s always a certain tendency of seeing war participation as optional, at least to a degree. Judging by the degree to which civilians have volunteered their assistance to this campaign, there’s sufficient determination to see this thing through.
As for war economy, any development in this direction so far has been very restrained. Production of war materiel has been expanded, yes, but the expansion of social spending planned years in advance is still being carried out. In addition to that, unplanned social spending for expanding medical rehabilitation, military pensions and insurance compensation to the families of servicemen is also being carried out. If the economy is being strained by the conflict, it is very skillfully being hidden. Presumably, increased revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons are a major factor compensating for the additional expenses, which is why the West is scrambling to undercut it via price-cap embargoes. To that end, a continuation of these trends relies on developments on international markets, so the question of whether Russia can sustain its economy on this level for X years depends on more than internal factors. If nothing changes to any significant degree on the international markets or if prices start going up, which is likely, there are no apparent obstacles to maintaining or even increasing war production further, nor to maintaining or even growing the civilian economy.
If, on the other hand, the export cushion is taken away for whatever reason while the conflict continues unabated, the possibility of an actual war economy shouldn’t be discounted, at which point the government takes over the civilian economy to maintain production of all basic necessities. Could this be maintained for X years? When the other option is total economic collapse, military defeat, famine and pestilence, then naturally it can be maintained for as long as it is necessary to avoid that option. The resource base is there to do it in perpetuity, at which point the ability to sustain it will depend on developments on the front and the stability of the government. Make no mistake, this is an extreme scenario.
As it stands right now, the living standard of Russians compared to citizens of NATO countries has not been significantly impacted, and in a race to the bottom under the circumstances as they are right now, citizens of Western countries will fare far worse. Although, that has little to do with weapon shipments to Ukraine — emptying stockpiles doesn’t influence the economy in any significant way — so there’s no immediate barrier to the continuation of weapon shipments, other than their diminishing availability. At the same time, import substitution of critical resources previously imported from Russia will inevitably force economic readjustment in the West, as certain sectors become unsustainable, and even supposing that the West is able to substitute trade with Russia 1:1 with other producers, which is doubtful, the transitional period needs a delicate touch to avoid creating long lasting knock-on effects. At the moment, the West continues to trade with Russia to more or less the same extent, but through intermediaries who collect additional transit fees, which in turn are used to finance additional purchases of Russian resources and the expansion of their transit business model. This is unsustainable for Western economies in the long term, and since the resources for which they are being bled are ones needed for expanding war materiel production, the situation hardly lends itself to efforts at expanding material support for Ukraine.
Posted by: Skiffer | Dec 29 2022 5:18 utc | 171
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