Ukraine SitRep - Catastrophic Losses, Failing Wonder Weapons, NATO Escalation
The Russian military is still integrating most of the mobilized 300,000+ men and volunteers. According to Putin 25% of the mobilized forces are in combat units, 25% in rear positions, while 50% train in Russia. It does not look like an imminent all out attack on the Ukrainian front lines is in the cards. The expected large winter attack may not be coming at all. Instead the new forces will rotate through the frontline and only attack locally whenever they see an opportunity.
The Russian do not need to attack. Their task is to demilitarize Ukraine. As long as the Ukrainians come to the front lines and attack the Russians their is no need to launch a large attack on them.
The map from a months ago versus today shows only a few small changes of the front lines.
Source: LiveUAmap - bigger
Source: LiveUAmap - bigger
However, the does not mean that nothing is happening.
Source: LiveUAmap - bigger
Every day all of the frontline sections are full of artillery/bombing symbols. That is mostly Russian artillery mowing the grass and killing Ukrainian soldiers.
Over the last month it was mostly the Ukrainians who attacked all along the front only to run into walls of steel and explosions. They did not manage to break the Russian lines. They tried again and again but failed with high losses.
Russian offenses were mostly confined to the Bakhmut/Artemovsk front where the Wagner private military contractor group has captured multiple Ukrainian trench lines and villages. This usually comes only after the artillery has cleaned the area and the few surviving Ukrainians moved out. The map from a months ago versus today shows small but important differences in that front line.
Source: LiveUAmap - bigger
Source: LiveUAmap - bigger
There must be a Ukrainian high order to hold onto Bakhmut at any price. The Ukrainian army has again and again moved reserve brigades into the area. Its hold operation is extremely costly:
Tony @Cyberspec1 - 5:46 UTC · Dec 10, 2022Polish newspaper NDP (Independent Political Journal) believes that without the support of NATO, the fighting in 🇺🇦 would end within a week.
NDP: daily losses of the AFU near Bakhmut reach a battalion (500-800 soldiers), hospitals in the city of Konstantinovka are overcrowded,
The above is not the only source which made that claim.
Big Serge @witte_sergei - 18:32 UTC · Dec 8, 2022LPR officials claim that Ukraine is transferring up to 500 men *per day* to Bakhmut to replenish losses. Even Arestovych admitted that Russian artillery strength in the sector has a 9 to 1 advantage. Bakhmut is becoming the largest and most costly battle of the war for Ukraine.
Newsweek spoke with a 'former' U.S. Colonel who, together with 'volunteers', trains Ukrainian soldiers. Here is what he says about Ukrainian losses:
"Bakhmut is like Dresden, and the countryside looks like Passchendaele," he said, referring to the German city destroyed by allied bombing in World War II and the infamously muddy and bloody World War I battlefield. "It's just a horrible and miserable place."Ukraine closely guards its casualty figures, but its forces are believed to be suffering badly around Bakhmut.
"They've been taking extraordinarily high casualties," Milburn said of the units training with Mozart. "The numbers you are reading in the media about 70 percent and above casualties being routine are not exaggerated."
Despite their "tremendous morale," Milburn said the defenders "have an acute 'regeneration problem,' which means getting new recruits into the line as quickly as possible." This means those being thrown into the fight have little beyond basic training.
"Typically about 80 percent of our intake who are coming off of the line have never even fired a weapon before," Milburn said. "We've got our work cut out for us."
A unit that has 50% casualties is usually no longer able to fight and must be replaced. But the Ukrainians leave their units on the frontline until nearly nobody is left in them.
So the number of 500 casualties per day on the Bakhmut front seems realistic. Over the last months the daily report of the Russian ministry of defense listed on average some 300 Ukrainian casualties per day. But the ministry does not report the casualties from Bakhmut as the operations of the private military contractor Wagner are not included in it. So the daily total over the last month, despite little movement of the front lines, must have been some 800 dead Ukrainians. In the 30 days between the two maps at the top at least 24,000 Ukrainian soldiers have left the battle field.
It is no wonder that such high numbers can not be replaced.
The mix of dead or wounded will likely be 1 to 1 as medical evacuation from the frontline trenches is extremely difficult. Most wounded will just die there.
It is not only the men that are lost. The equipment they used is mostly lost with them. 24,000 men are the equivalent of 6 to 7 NATO brigades. The German army has now only 8 of those. When I was it that army it had 36 brigades plus significant reserve units. The same large downgrade happened with the general state of NATO. It is not ready for a war with Russia.
The western wounder weapons have done little for Ukraine. The Russians have update their air defense systems to now detect and shoot down HIMARS missiles. They report some 10 to 20 of such kills per day. The shooting down of small and medium sized Ukrainian drones has dropped from 20-30 per day in the summer to 2-3 per day. Either the Ukrainians have run out of drones or the weather has made theirs unusable. Russian drones continue to fly and they help with artillery targeting. The western artillery systems can not be repaired in the field as the Ukrainians lack the training and tools to do that. The Wall Street Journal reports:
Less than 50% of the self-propelled Panzerhaubitze — a class of mobile, long-barreled battlefield guns officially known as PzH2000 howitzers that are widely considered to be among the best-performing weapons of their kind — are on the battlefield at any given time, because they must be taken to Lithuania for repairs, nearly 900 miles from the Kherson front in southern Ukraine, senior German officials said. Germany has so far delivered 14 such weapons, and the Netherlands another five.Other allies, such as the U.S. and Britain, service the arms they donated to Ukraine in Poland, near the Ukrainian border. But Warsaw has refused to allow Berlin to set up a servicing center in Poland, requesting instead that the German manufacturers provide confidential technical information in order for a Polish state-controlled company to do the work, according to German officials involved in the talks.
There was also a spat over Patriot air defense missiles. Germany offered to station these in east Poland but with German crews. Poland first accepted the offer, then rejected it and said the missiles should go to Ukraine. It then retracted again and will now accept the offer.
The international relation within Europe are getting worse. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has declared that he wants Germany to be the leading power in Europe. Germany's neighbors, and most of its own population, are not happy with that.
Over the last five months Latvia has hosted the Russian opposition TV station TVrain. It has now shot it down because TVrain, sending for a Russian audience, also had some positive things to say about Russia. TVrain had survived in Russia for 12 years. In Latvia it lasted only four and a half months.
Alec Luhn @ASLuhn - 19:24 UTC · Dec 9, 2022.@tvrain journalists have been blacklisted in Latvia & declared a foreign agent in Russia on the same day 🤔
link
What these anecdotes show is that NATO is slowly falling apart. NATO is losing the proxy war in Ukraine and it is losing it badly. The people know it and it will have consequences. An increasingly authoritarian EU will follow the same path.
But there are powers in NATO that want to prevent that downfall. They will try to get NATO directly into the fight:
NATO’s secretary general warned on Friday that Russia’s war in Ukraine could expand into a wider war with the Atlantic alliance.The official, Jens Stoltenberg, repeatedly cautioned in news media interviews this week against underestimating the situation in Ukraine and emphasized the wider threat President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could pose to Europe.
“If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong,” Mr. Stoltenberg said in an interview released on Friday with the Norwegian journalist Anne Lindmo, in which he added that there was “no doubt” a full-blown war against NATO was a “real possibility.”
“I understand everyone who is tired of supporting Ukraine. I understand everyone who thinks that food prices and the electricity bills are far too high,” he said. “But we have to pay a much higher price if our freedom and peace are threatened through Putin winning in Ukraine.”
Reread that last sentence:
“But we have to pay a much higher price if our freedom and peace are threatened through Putin winning in Ukraine.”
Putin wining in Ukraine, which he is doing, will threaten our freedom and peace?
Russia has no interest in Europe beyond Ukraine's borders. So how is that suppose to endanger us?
It is bullshit but it is designed to push for NATO entering the war when it becomes obvious to everyone that Russia is wining it.
The Russians see that coming:
NATO countries are increasingly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, with the United States intentionally proceeding with an escalation on this track, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on the Rossiya-24 TV channel on Thursday."NATO members are increasingly and directly involved in this conflict. Their support for Kiev is now much diversified than it was a few months ago. This is a reflection of Washington’s intentional policy, obediently pursued by the Europeans, of escalating the conflict. They are playing with fire. The risks are soaring," Ryabkov said.
Indeed. But Stoltenberg has one thing right:
Mr. Stoltenberg’s comments came two days after he said that Russia was intentionally stalling the war in order to prepare a renewed onslaught against Ukrainian forces next year.
Let us assume that Russia waits until March for its all out attack on Ukraine. In the meantime it continues to grind the Ukrainian army down without itself having significant casualties. The Ukrainian army will by then have lost another 72,000 men. That is probably a third of its current strength. By then its acute 'regeneration problem' will have become even more acute. It means that it will then be much weaker.
What plans may Russia have for an all out spring attack?
Dr. Michael Vlahos and Col. Douglas Macgregor are military historians. They have watched the war in Ukraine and recently discussed it. They have come to their own conclusions. Neither believes in the nonsense of a winning Ukraine that the 'western' media are trying to sell us. They have ideas how Russia may want to attack.
Part one of their talk is here:
Is the war in Ukraine entering its decisive phase? Pt.1
Why NATO strategic failure? A war of deceit, denial Pt2
What is to be done? Can a corrupted US military be renewed? Pt.3
Each of those videos is some 30-50 minutes long. But it is content on a higher level than what you will see in other talk shows. I highly recommend these.
Posted by b on December 10, 2022 at 17:24 UTC | Permalink
next page »This current apparent stasis in Ukraine allows time for other happenings.
China's current Xi's visit to Saudi Arabia is ridding Saudi of US dependency. Saudi has noted Washington's theft of hundreds of billions dollars from Russia. This is changing the financial world as we know it. Russia is reporting that the large China procurement of oil from Saudi will be in China's currency not dollars. Also Russia reportedly is getting military supply support from Iran and China, as Europe and the US tire of complete Ukraine support.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 10 2022 18:04 utc | 2
Thanks must be given to gorbachiov for being a stupid fat treacherous pig, and allowing it all to come to this. The USSR got the dollar store Deng Xiaoping. I wonder, if one could go back to 1984( like the terminator) and show to the Ukrainians what future awaited them (losing their industries to corruption, civil war etc...) and show the soviet people what the west had in store for them, as well as the effects of neoliberal privatization, what their reaction would have been?. Anyway, Russia should demonstrate its strength in a decisive way, and also get support from China+Iran in order to discourage an direct attack by NATO/US, the west in a rotten to the core distopia of lies/censorship that will self destruct before 2028, all the "east" has to do is avoid a nuclear Samson reaction from the west until then.
Posted by: Phariah | Dec 10 2022 18:05 utc | 3
I don't know if they will do a winter offensive. Currently they have what Kutuzov might have called the "golden bridge" where the civilians can leave Ukraine, and NATO continues to demilitarize itself by sending its declining stockpiles. Europe suffering through the winter wouldn't be too bad either
Posted by: leaf | Dec 10 2022 18:09 utc | 4
Thanks for the excellent summary and links b.
I see the momentary pause in Russian advancement due to this years freeze not quite being here yet.
So technically, Stoltenberg may be correct about the "next year" call given there is only 3 weeks left in this one and its looking like the ground will not be sufficiently frozen for the "onslaught" until almost the end of this year.
I do wonder about the timing of this aspect of the broader civilization war we are in, especially with regard to ME happenings and the reported announcement of all or parts of an alternative global finance system.
What a time to be watching the world go round.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 10 2022 18:09 utc | 5
Dr. Vlahos hit the nail on the head when he observed this is a war of "propaganda and deception".
Unfortunately the majority of the populace are so easily deceived by propaganda.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Dec 10 2022 18:11 utc | 6
Thank you b.
The mix of dead or wounded will likely be 1 to 1 as medical evacuation from the frontline trenches is extremely difficult. Most wounded will just die there.
The KIA to wounded ratio will likely still be 1:3 or 1:4, however the 'initial' WIA given the conditions will promptly transition from 'initial' WIA to subsequent KIA before exiting, if ever, the FEBA, as WIA.
Hence resultant doubled KIA & lowered ultimate WIA at 1:3 resulting in ~2.5:1.5 KIA/WIA, or if start point is 1:4, then ~3:2 KIA/WIA. And majority of all WIA resulting in severe WIA status re delayed evacuation & proper effective treatment elsewhere. Few WIA that survive will likely ever return to duty or be combat capable again. Hence likely effective pseudo-KIA equivalent of ~60-75%+.
'Tis not a meat grinder. Is an horrific slaughterhouse ...
It feels to me like the US is on its way to emulating North Korea. We are becoming all about guns, nukes, boom, boom, boom.
Inflation, skyrocketing fuel, media control, many being targeted. Reports of crime on credit cards-- overcharges from online often and even from within some box stores.
Posted by: HelenB | Dec 10 2022 18:16 utc | 9
Dr. Michael Vlahos and Col. Douglas Macgregor are military historians. Part 3 of their video interview is now out.
Though both men see a path for a decisive Russian victory over the winter, B joins other commentators in flagging the possibility (and signals of this from Russia) of a longer war. Russia likely knows it has been on the receiving end of a hybrid war (since at least 2014, if not since Napoleon) but would have preferred a "bad peace or 'cold' war" given the long-term trends favoring the Eurasian project, and hoping to eventually bring Europe along, with Russia positioned as the bridge between East and West.
But now, the increasingly comprehensive war between the Western imperial oligarchy and Russia, finds Russia forced to confront an empire that has perhaps never been weaker. The SMO has accelerated most of the trends already weakening the West.
Demilitarizing NATO and perhaps accelerating the fracture of the EU were not likely Russia objectives a year ago. Watching Europe de-industrialize itself to spite Russia is probably nothing even the Russian planners most contemptuous of Europe would have forecast.
Russia military planners would have known that RF has a generational lead in air defense and probably a 10-year lead in missile offense. But it's now been demonstrated that the West is not structurally, industrially or managerially set up for industrial warfare over the long, or even the short run--even in areas where Russia's technological edge is absent or not so considerable as AD & hypersonics.
Other huge pieces--the support for Russia as multipolar resistance fighter in the Global South--the self-inflicted damage to trust in the Western financial architecture, the solid support for Russia among the other leading energy producers--may be signaling to Russia that now that it's forced to fight, Russia should be prepared to grind down the entire West, particularly if NATO obliges by continuing to keep this a proxy war below the nuclear threshold.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Dec 10 2022 18:17 utc | 10
There is no doubt that NATO and the EU deserve to die, along with the US criminal government. What causes the most concern is whether the West will take down everyone else in its death spiral. I have to wonder what kind of fanaticism impels the Ukraine government to send masses of its young men to a certain death, to fight for a land whose people want them to leave. The young men go at the point of a gun. They will either be killed by the Russians or shot by their own command if they refuse to fight. The Ukrainian fanaticism is just a more demonstrative form of that which exists in the US and Europe. It goes back a long long way.
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 10 2022 18:25 utc | 11
The west has gone insane.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Dec 10 2022 17:48
---
That right there is why moa is so limited beyond anything other than tactical analysis obsessively pursued by spectrum autists.
If nothing else, I will once again attempt to explain the real world so that maybe a few others can take this information and develop a broader understanding.
1. Private capital charges interest
2. Funds available to pay accrued interest are generated from new debt tranches
3. Expanded credit is issued to fund economic growth
4. Economic development is entirely dependent on fossil fuels
5. Thus: non renewables = civilization = dollar system
The entire globe sans Russia has passed peak surplus and extraction. Russia alone has the necessary reserves to keep the game going for maybe another 100 years. Hopefully this will provide enough time to craft a civilization exit strategy
The dollar system - and the empire along with it - will fail if it cannot access, acquire and or seize russias natural resources over the next decade. Therefore, this conflict is very much an existentional threat to the United states.
Knowing this, the usa strategy in ukraine, Russia (and China for that matter) is entirely logical. Evil maybe (depending if you dont ascribe natural predator prey dynamics to humans), but well reasoned and executed.
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 18:26 utc | 12
The US actions are just nuts. The US media is just nuts. The responses of the American people are just nuts.
I am glad that President Putin has had so much patience and self-control. It will likely lead to a much more everwhelming win for Russia ... and China ... and Iran and Saudi Arabia and a lot of other countries.
The other benefit of his approach is that it minimizes the odds of nuclear annihilation.
Posted by: Woke American | Dec 10 2022 18:27 utc | 13
Russians need to make use of General Winter because NATO is certainly using the time to beef up their forces already in the Ukraine.
Make a swift southern slice from Belarus through Zhitomir and Vinnitsa to Odessa.
Then "kessel" the Ukraine.
Posted by: LevZasetsky | Dec 10 2022 18:27 utc | 14
non-winter Camouflage uniform Ukrainian troops who move along the tree lines could soon be facing increased risk from drone attacks once snow starts covering the ground. It will be a heavier slog moving through snow, they'll leave tracks which drones can follow, and they'll stick out until they can be dressed out in winter camo.
Their vehicles, unless painted for a snowy environment, will face a similar fate.
All Ukrainian equipment that hides in woods that remain green even in the winter will be at risk of Ukrainian troops exposing their positions by their footprints. Sure, they should know to enter cover a ways from the position of the hidden equipment, but they'll likely still come in close enough to give drone operators a big advantage in knowing what areas to examine.
Infra-red detection of concealed sources could also come more into play.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 10 2022 18:30 utc | 15
@ Paul Damascene | Dec 10 2022 18:17 utc | 10
Excellent summation.
It is in RF & RoW interests to keep Empire caught in the steel-beartrap that is Ukraine for as long as possible, as Empire can only further weaken, not even keep pace, as comparatively RF & RoW will continue to grow & strengthen apace.
Empire has doomed itself & accelerated it's own decline & ultimate collapse by it's own actions, illusions & conceits. The best it can hope for is to slow the rate of decline, not avoid, given current comparative capabilities and accelerating trends across multiple domains globally.
See? Called it, no winter offensive. Seems like Putin is boxed in. He wanted to, badly, to be part of Europe and was willing to sell Russia to get it...but...he was lied to, and betrayed in turn.
So let's see how Russia works now that it can't not know military victory is the only thing that will get it the respect and space it needs to feel safe(and maybe actually be safe)
Allied actions against American proxies the Kosovars and Kurds are in the works. Maybe through diplomacy but Serbia Turkiye and Iran are all prepared to employ force.
For offensives look to these theaters. The big one will be China of course but they're still too busy counting money. We will see if they can be moved into a war footing as well. They don't want to wreck Taiwan, but then again Russia didn't want to wreck Ukraine. US global hegemony objectives though desire this trashing of Eurasian assets. They know this but the cost of letting America arm small enclaves is rising, so eventually the cost benefit ratio will switch.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 10 2022 18:34 utc | 17
One thing that could be taken into account are the changes in tactics. One report from Ukrainians stated that Wagner troops, dress in black and crawl close to the Ukrainian positions during the night.
Massive use of artillery and drones during other periods.
In other words there is no let-up day or night. Even if the numbers are there, then no sleep or the lack of "calm" moments, will help them.
***
I do not see any slowing down in the mental pressure on the troops OR the Ukrainian civilians for the foreseeable future.
"We're doing humanitarian work"
"We're training Ukrainian soldiers - of those we've trained, hundreds of losses every day"
Well, what is it, then, Herr Mozart? You can't be humanitarian limited to evacuating merely a few hundreds of civilians over several months and at the same time training hundreds of Ukrainians every week.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 10 2022 18:40 utc | 19
The Russians are making no secret of the fact that they are waging a war of attrition. This is what Wagner boss Prigozhin said recently:
Our task is not Bakhmut itself, but the destruction of the Ukrainian army and the reduction of its combat potential, which has an extremely positive effect on other areas, which is why this operation was dubbed the 'Bakhmut meat grinder'
Still, the Ukrainians (or the Americans?) keep on sacrificing countless lives, and for no advantage at all.
Posted by: Brendan | Dec 10 2022 18:44 utc | 20
Well its ok sitting back and allowing the Nazis to be ground into rat shit,problem is no big Russian offensive gives the Nazis and their handlers more time to rearm and bring in more manpower even if thats idiotic Nato soldiers,i think an attack on the High command of the Ukrainian leadership wherever they are should be carried out and more strikes in the western Ukraine.
Posted by: Englishman | Dec 10 2022 18:53 utc | 22
@ B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 18:26 utc | 12
Script & digital dollars do not a shell or cartridge case make. Nor can a shell, iron bomb or shell be filled with high ignition script, to go boom. No bullets, no ammo, no bombs renders Trillions upon Trillions of Empires Armaments of all kinds so much useless scrap metal. And de-industralized, off-shored, globalized, JIT western economies sans sufficient raw resources & part finished products/goods, coal/oil/gas/electricity do not sufficient ammunition make re contestation.
Small arms, Crew-served weapons, Arty, Mortars, MBTs, IFVs, Fighters, Helos, Bombers, Subsurface & Surface Vessels need munitions. As well as myriad logistical supplies & POL at scale.
Defunct Merchant Marine Reserve means no strategic sea lift anywhere in the world.
~75% available for conscription in USA are below repeatedly lowered minimum standards re conscription going back over two decades.
Have not even begun to scratch the surface of Empires glaring Strategic & Operational illusory capabilities that have now been demonstrably exposed over past 10 months. Real world actual Air Defense, Ballistic & Hypersonic Defense capabilities as opposed to Hollywood & Youtube illusory war porn ?
Status SFR ?
You condescendingly blow hard re 'tactical analysis' 'spectrum autists' ? Look in the mirror.
Posted by: HelenB | Dec 10 2022 18:16 utc | 9
Hate to tell you that the DPRK is not all about guns, nukes, boom, boom, boom.
Posted by: v | Dec 10 2022 18:56 utc | 24
Ukraine has 30 million people (per russian assesments), most of whom are men (90 % of refugees are women and children), most do not have a job, so that war can continue for a long time. Just like enourmous human losses did not stop Vietnam as long as men and weapons were available.
The West consists of half the world GDP, some 50 trillion dollars, so they can prop up the war for a long time. Just now, the former Warsaw Pact MIC has been revived, with factories for Soviet weapons (including upgraded) being scaled up and working overtime. The West can also keep buying stuff from other countries around the world.
Even destroying the country does not help.
Russia does not benefit from having a radicalised Afghanistan type country near it constantly being armed by the West for never ending terrorisation of russians.
Putin made severe mistakes and is a poor war time leader, although he may have been good in peace time.
Posted by: ObseverBG | Dec 10 2022 19:06 utc | 25
Haven't read Moon of Alabama in a long time, but I must say it has become even more delusional than I feared. They went from promoting CV panic straight to cheerleading the obviously failed Russian SMO. Do you guys remember when Moon of Alabama recommended water jet toilets as a solution to the toilet paper panic? Those were the days.
Posted by: Hans Mueller | Dec 10 2022 19:07 utc | 26
Outraged | Dec 10 2022 18:53 utc | 23
In one aspect at least the US is (going to...) try to make the weapons fit their couch potatoes-
There is to be an emphasis on advanced drone warfare within the latest US military budget.
**
The ideal; "are you sitting comfortably? A bud within reach and a donut on the plate, your zapper ready, and armed by a local unit? All you have to do is manoeuvre the bulk of the US fighting forces on the sceen in front of your eyes, and at the twitch of a switch, launch the freedom fryers".
but not in time for Christmas evidently.
It seems to me that while Russia might not want to make any big advances through the Ukrainian lines, there could be a lot of advantages to making strong feints that would compel Ukraine to move its reserves to defend against that. And the strongest, most effective, feints are ones that are sometimes concluded by real action.
There was a line in the novel Marathon Man that sticks with me. Remember the scene in the movie where Roy Scheider's character gets attacked from behind by the Asian assassin? In the book the author really gets into the scene, and he references a basketball game where two of the best players are one on one against each other, and a a goal is scored because the one dribbling the ball feints left, and goes left.
Roy Scheider's character has his hand so brutally cut by the piano wire used in an attempt to garrote him that he can't use it, except to feint with it. His opponent knows that, but (spoiler alert) loses his life because Scheider feints with it, then goes in for a deadly blow with it. The pain was excruciating, but the move saved his life.
Yeah, so Russia has no need to make any big advances, and they'll only make feints. ;) lol
P.S. Ukraine will soon have little choice with holding back Russian forces, and they'll need to send in reserves from the Kiev area, and those warding off the combined Belarus and Russian force that has been warming up in Belarus.
We might see some strong "feints" from that combined force towards the supply lines within Ukraine that funnel in aid from Poland.
This is what it becomes about when you have a numerical advantage, and force multipliers. You keep maneuvering until you out-maneuver your enemy, and also wear them out.
General Lee's forces eventually succumbed to the missteps that become more and more inevitable when you are outnumbered, and outgunned. Yet again it becomes fascinating to compare the current situation to ones from America's Civil War.
Spoiler alert: Eventually Atlanta burns. Biden's military advisers likely know all to well from their studies at West Point what the AFU is looking at, and some of the recent comments from those people can be said to reflect their understanding of history.
I see Zelenskyy as continuing to make risky choices in hopes of game changing events. He wants Russia to do something that would give his NATO supporters the jolt to their system that would compel them to start taking the fight directly against Russian forces in Ukraine.
The clock is ticking on those hopes, imo, as no politician wants to tie their fate to a barely animate corpse. And pretty soon the exsanquination of the AFU will have reached a point where that military is basically running on zombie goo. Drugs, desperation, and insane propaganda, will be what what they'll have pumping through their veins.
Though every zombie army has its controllers, and the Azov guys are aiming to remain whole, avoiding the slaughter of futile attacks. They'll be needed to keep the current regime in control so it can cut a surrender deal that will allow these new Nazis to make an escape that will put the one of the old Nazis from 1945 to shame.
How pathetic by comparison it would be seeing Laurence Olivier's character trying to get access to his diamonds. These new Nazis will have bank accounts, dripping with currency.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 10 2022 19:09 utc | 28
Posted by: HelenB | Dec 10 2022 18:16 utc | 9
How many middle eastern countries has North Korea invaded in the last few decades ... ?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 10 2022 19:09 utc | 29
Posted by: ObseverBG | Dec 10 2022 19:06 utc | 25
Putin made severe mistakes and is a poor war time leader, although he may have been good in peace time.
What would a good war time leader have done, in your opinion?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 10 2022 19:14 utc | 30
When the inevitable happens.
And Russia have wiped the Ukraine military out.
And by default Nato.
What then?
Wil delusion or reality set the next phase?
Europe is heading down the route of destitution.
Ukraine a northern Somalia.
Posted by: jpc | Dec 10 2022 19:16 utc | 31
@Inkan1969 | Dec 10 2022 18:46 utc | 21
"Now it's just to demilitarize Ukraine?"
Yes, and...
Beyond the broad goal of demilitarization (and denazification), if the Russians can completely hollow out the Ukrainian forces before they go on a big offensive, then that's what they'll do. They did similar in Syria. All of that "non-progress" the Russians were making in Syria, that Obama liked to talk about, led to big victories down the line.
The two logical times for the Russian to go on the offensive are 'real soon' to take advantage of the winter freeze, or in the spring after stuff dries out. If the Ukrainianians insist on marching into meat grinder then there is little pressure for the Russians to go on the offensive in the short term. Longer term the Russians are going to want to put an end to this before NATO cooks anything too new or too stupid up. So I still suspect the hammer will fall sooner, or a little later...
Posted by: Another James | Dec 10 2022 19:26 utc | 32
thanks b... i think russia is proceeding in the best way possible here.. they do know they are being attacked by the usa-nato and they are processing accordingly... it is quite horrific the loss of life that is the cost of usa-nato doing business here..
i agree with 2 men you've linked to at the bottom.. i have watched the first video.. to quote you - "Neither believes in the nonsense of a winning Ukraine that the 'western' media are trying to sell us." i doubt this sales job will change any time soon.. it would be too costly for the corporate media in the west to address the reality on the ground - bad for business.. i suspect a wider war and do believe usa-uk-nato and friends are existentially threatened with the idea that their domination of the world is under threat of loss here... what to do? they are running out of options...
Posted by: james | Dec 10 2022 19:30 utc | 33
The Russian do not need to attack ? Tell that to the civilians in Donetsk.
Posted by: Buford T Justice | Dec 10 2022 19:31 utc | 34
Melitopol was hit tonight. Multiple himars strikes. Channels report there are dead people but no numbers yet.
Maybe Baldie will retreat some more, it's his trademark move. Engels airport would surely love 5 more soldiers to search for Soviet drones
Posted by: rk | Dec 10 2022 19:32 utc | 35
Thanks to B. for highlighting western reports about Ukrainian losses. We see some evidence that western media can be truthful anytime it reports things that are contrary to the perceived interests of the Biden administration. It bodes well for Western society in the long term that Newsweek periodically has content that war hawks would prefer censored.
Related: Does anyone have independent, reliable, sources on the state of the Ukrainian energy grid? Or the Ukrainian refugee flow rate per month?
I've been trying to figure out how much success Russia is having in degrading their grid. I went for refugees per month into Europe as a proxy measure of grid integrity. Could not find the data I wanted. UNHCR and NGO numbers only cover up to September 2022. This could be bureaucratic infomanipulation (NGOs, UN, data analysts, trying to block Russian morale victories by hiding bad numbers), but it could also just be that things are such a mess no one is able to correlate and report the numbers in a timely way. Or it could just be that I'm a bad researcher. Thoughts?
Posted by: GoFast | Dec 10 2022 19:34 utc | 36
Wrong again. After bellowing for months about the coming Russian offensive, headed by "General Winter", now reality sets in, and it is recognized that there will not be any such offensive.
The NATO forces would tear up the Russian armour with their superior weapons, and their endless supply of troops (from a base population of 800 million).
If Putin will conscript 500,000 more men, and order a general economic mobilization, Russia might be able to hold what they have. And that would be a victory, at least a partial victory, with the land bridge to Crimea and most of Donbass.
But we all know Putin by now, and he is not likely to do that. Which means that Russis is going to lose this war, unless Putin can be replaced by a more serious person.
Posted by: Thim | Dec 10 2022 19:34 utc | 37
The West will stop aiding Ukraine when the cost of doing so exceeds the cost of a Russian win. Propaganda helps raise the perceived cost of the second and lowers the perceived cost of the first. It is really effective at the moment, a masterclass is being given to the world (and any observing aliens). Russia needs to overcome this to win and it will take a long time if at all.
Posted by: alek_a | Dec 10 2022 19:34 utc | 38
"They've been taking extraordinarily high casualties," Milburn said of the units training with Mozart.
It stopped being "They" sometime in early March. Now it's "we," as in: "We: the UK, USA, NATO, and EU; took extraordinarily high casualties until we lost the war and afterwards we were regarded as paper tigers."
Posted by: ? | Dec 10 2022 19:35 utc | 39
Vlahos and Macgregor: The paradox of two proud Americans talking about the need for humility.
Posted by: too scents | Dec 10 2022 19:37 utc | 40
Just to add to my comment @38
The danger for the West is that as propaganda is intensified and last longer and longer, it may take a life of its own. Distorting perceptions on all matters and spawning own propaganda offshoots without control. Like a mind cancer. Propaganda is not of the material world and is not subject to its limitations. It lives in the heads of people where everything is possible and can be justified.
Posted by: alek_a | Dec 10 2022 19:38 utc | 41
Posted by: ObseverBG | Dec 10 2022 19:06 utc | 25
The West consists of half the world GDP, some 50 trillion dollars,
How much of this GDP is actually "value add" wrapped around RoW GDP? I'd say 50% at least.
so they can prop up the war for a long time.
GDP is not real military production. You can't prop up anything on a GDP based on "services".
The West will need the very countries it's making enemies of and has declared a "threat".
Just now, the former Warsaw Pact MIC has been revived, with factories for Soviet weapons (including upgraded) being scaled up and working overtime.
A decade late, a trillion dollars short.
By the time these factories are at an acceptable level of production (5 years from now?) the Capitalist incentive will not exist anymore.
Also:
These countries are not going to have the time, expertise, manpower and resources to manufacture old Soviet doodads while trying to keep warm for the winter and staving off civil unrest.
Perhaps those hordes of Middle Eastern and African refugees will be welcomed now?
The West can also keep buying stuff from other countries around the world.
You mean like Venezuelan, Iranian, Russian gas, oil, coal, minerals and grain? Chinese goods and components?
How does this work when everything the West buying fuels the very opponents it's fighting?
Russia does not benefit from having a radicalised Afghanistan type country near it constantly being armed by the West for never ending terrorisation of russians.
This was the situation before the SMO.
Putin made severe mistakes and is a poor war time leader
All leaders are poor wartime leaders.
What counts is who prevails in the end.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 10 2022 19:41 utc | 42
Why was my comment deleted? I just said MoA has become delusional and shouldn't have recommended water jet toilets in 2020.
Posted by: Hans Muster | Dec 10 2022 19:45 utc | 43
But, but, but the great reset was supposed to be so different. So glorious, so smooth in its transition to slavery. If Russia decides to allow the westies to slowly bleed themselves to death, that would be awful. /s
That sure looks like the direction that the lemming drivers are stuck with.
I look forward to reports of a meeting somewhere, sometime between Klaus Schwab and Jens Stoltenberg. It could be the opening scene of a play written in the Harold Pinter or Samuel Beckett form.
To witness this is truly astounding and I guess in a perverse sort of way we owe much of it to the last three presidents of the USA ably assisted by the last three (four, five six?) Prime Ministers of the UK. Without their mix of arrogant ineptitude this synchronicity of stupidity could never have been achieved.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 10 2022 19:45 utc | 44
i live in victoria bc canada, our nazi federal govt is launching a blitz (green don't you know) to explore & develop mines excavating minerals, metals to aid the green eco development. never mind never mind most of the land holding these minerals & wanna be mines are on native land & the natives have no interest, @ least not @ the price mentioned. it's a bogus green campaign to veil the ramp up to feed the war machine. how our vassal govt imagines it is going to serve this war effort hasn't been addressed. perhaps the flood of german industrial magnets to america will oversee constructing the factories & the magical training baristas with a green gender degree (very like mozart is training ukrainians who've never fired a gun) to build hypersonic weapons. the empire is desperate, fear has flooded its every thought. the green gender adherents blinded by the hollywood glow of saving our planet cannot fathom the glow is of an altogether different source.
Posted by: emersonreturn | Dec 10 2022 19:46 utc | 45
This war is about much more than just Ukraine.
Dmitry Orlov wrote an interesting article a week ago calling the war a Goldilocks war, not too fast not too slow:
Russia has achieved several of its strategic objectives already; the rest can wait. How long should they wait? To answer this question, we need to look outside the limited scope of Russia’s special operation in the Ukraine. Russia has bigger fish to fry, and frying fish takes time because eating undercooked fish can give you nasty parasites such as tapeworm and liver fluke. And so, I would like to invite you to Mother Russia’s secret kitchen, to see what’s on the cutting board and to estimate how much thermal processing will be required to turn it all into a safe and nutritious meal.Mixing our food metaphors, allow me to introduce Goldilocks with her three bears and her porridge not to hot and not too cold. What Russia seems to be doing is keeping their special military operation moving along at a steady pace—not to fast and not too slow. Going too fast would not allow enough time to cook the various fish; going too fast would also increase the cost of the campaign in casualties and resources. Going too slow would give the Ukrainians and NATO time to regroup and rearm and prevent the proper thermal processing of the various fish.
In an effort to find the optimal pace for the conflict, Russia initially committed only a tenth of its professional active-duty soldiers, then worked hard to minimize the casualty rate. It opted to start turning off the lights all over the former Ukraine only after the Kiev regime tried to blow up the Kerch Strait bridge that linked Crimea with the Russian mainland. Finally, it called up just 1% of reservists to relieve the pressure from the frontline troops and potentially prepare for the next stage, which is a winter campaign—for which the Russians are famous.
The Goldilocks War
Posted by: Down South | Dec 10 2022 19:48 utc | 46
Thanks for the excellent and sensible coverage. No winter assault then. The MSM will run a constantly blaring meme about Russia being caught out by winter, poorly supplied, low morale and unable to break Ukr lines, blah blah. But no winter pushes at all? What about over the Oskol into Karkhov oblast? It makes sense to probe the northern flank after all those foreign fighters have been sent south to plug haemorrhaging Artemovsk. Targeted offensives to cut off supply and threaten encirclement should be in the mix.
And how long are the residents of Donetsk expected to endure indiscriminate terror artillery? I've not understood why the Russians don't simply bunker-bust those positions with strategic bombers and MOABs. But there's a lot about Russian strategy that's opaque and confusing. We all give it the benefit of the doubt ('spring offensive'!) but there must be a bag full of red lines the Russians still don't want to cross. Are they stalling to prepare for the larger NATO war?
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2022 19:50 utc | 47
@ Hans Muster | Dec 10 2022 19:45 utc | 43
you are proving just how delusional you are.. good luck with that around here...
Posted by: james | Dec 10 2022 19:51 utc | 48
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 10 2022 19:14 utc | 30
I thought about mobilisation being needed even back in May. But Putin was too cowardly (concerned for his internal popularity) and reactive to do anything until it became too late and his hand was forced, otherwise russians would have lost the war and he would have been overthrown.
Starting a war while leaving 350 billion in western banks.
Entering the war with hopes that russians will be welcomed with flowers (the destroyed attempts to enter the large Kharkov city by small russian lightly armed units was a dead giveaway)
The fact that no one thought of fortifying russian lines until it became too late.
Leaving the Belgorod buffer zone in Kharkov region, opening Belgorod region to attacks. That looks like something pushed by a lawyer concerned with borders and legalisms for future negotiations, since Kharkov is not considered an official russian region. Even though the likes of Turkey have no problem with having border buffer zones in Syria.
Forcing the army to try to frontal asault directly heavy Ukrainian fortifications, instead of moving behind them and surrounding them, all due to lack of forces allowed.
Basically Russia fighting the Maginot line frontally due to lack of forces of deep surrounding operations.
This is not to mention the major MIC issues (the anti-drone Russian culture, with various Rus "experts" dissing drones before the war), the stupidity of waging a long war with expensive standoff weapons (that's why they are begging Iran to provide them with cheap long range drones), the fact that almost no one has been punished for large scale corruption and theft in the army.
The poor anti-air suppression capability, not allowing rus aircraft to get beyond the frontline.
Not targeting the Dnieper bridges and splitting Ukraine in half, instead using almost all of the heavy Iskander missiles early on for manpower targets in Kharkov region.
Putting all of these "Russia is here forever" posters with smiling women and children on them in the newly taken regions, only to be abandoned later. What a joke.
Posted by: ObseverBG | Dec 10 2022 19:51 utc | 49
If NATOstan gets directly involved, it is immaterial if not one NATOstani soldier is left with more than a rifle and a couple of grenades because everything else has been sent to Ukranazistan. If NATOstan gets involved it will be a nuclear war. So either Putin needs to win this quickly or else he will back down in the guise of "negotiations". This is something he has been trying to do for months anyway. As the Belarusian Telegram poster victop55 says, it is fortunate for Russia that her enemies are determined to sabotage all negotiations and compel her to fight till victory.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 10 2022 19:52 utc | 50
b: Many thanks for another excellent sitrep. You've really nailed it here, though there's nothing terribly unusual about that.
Fully agreed with all who've said the West has totally "lost it". As an American, I can only think:
"My country 'tis of thee,
land of insanity!"
Posted by: JMF | Dec 10 2022 19:53 utc | 51
“But we have to pay a much higher price if our freedom and peace are threatened through Putin winning in Ukraine.”
The price for real peace and freedom would have been just some simple words and agreements. Ordo Ab Chao.
Posted by: circumspect | Dec 10 2022 19:55 utc | 52
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 18:26 utc | 12
The money system is very important, but it is not the be all and end all. The laws of economics are not like the laws of physics. Debt can be cancelled, defaulted, currencies can be reset, alternative forms of money used... there are different winners and losers that's all. Banks creating debt as money for interest was and is an absolutely blazing brilliant scam - but its demise is not the end of civilisation.
Posted by: Tim | Dec 10 2022 20:02 utc | 53
I agree with ObserverBG at 49, except that I don't think Putin is a coward. I think Putin was from 2014 to the appointment of Surovikin fighting not for Russia but for his oligarch cronies' business interests, including their business interests in Ukranazistan, which would have been badly affected by the destruction of the nazi infrastructure. The Putinist neoliberal system also turned the Russian military into a neoliberal model of short term (6 month) contract hires doing the fighting with no regular military available (I had said this many times here and was called a "troll" and "idiot" for saying so, and yet this was confirmed by the pro Russian military analyst Big Serge). There never seems to have been plans made about what might happen if the war continued beyond 6 months, which is why August suddenly saw the Russian military evaporate from Kharkov when the contractors went home. The belated mobilisation was an attempt to correct that, and was delayed until it became impossible to not do it. Meanwhile the LDNR soldiers have been fighting heroically from the start with basic equipment including WWII helmets and in second line units WWII weapons, with no breaks and no contracts. Because they aren't neoliberal profit worshipper republics.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 10 2022 20:03 utc | 54
Outraged @ 16.
Thank you, yes. See also DownSouth @46, with a link to Dmitri Orlov's "The Goldilocks War".
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Dec 10 2022 20:06 utc | 55
I hope the European Union puts up a show trial, condemns Russia for war crimes, takes the 300.000 million US$ Russian Central Bank reserves held in EU banks, the 19.000 million US$ frozen assets of wealthy Russian citizens , and gives it all to Ukraine. This is about $2000 per Russian citizen. Yes, losing this kind of money will hurt Russia. But 319.000.000.000 US$ is a small price to pay to wreck the reputation of European banks. No country will ever trust the EU with their foreign reserves again.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 10 2022 20:10 utc | 56
@ Patroklos | Dec 10 2022 19:50 utc | 47
Are they stalling to prepare for the larger NATO war?
The longer the current situ is maintained at the current 'adjustable' pace, the weaker NATO, EU, US progressively becomes & therefore comparatively the stronger, RF becomes (let alone RoW). The weaker Empire gets the lesser the real conventional threat NATO is to RF, therefore the smaller the on Alert counter-force needs to be.
As this occurs over time measurably, the more extant ~85-90% of 1st/2nd Line RF regular troops can safely be detached from Garrison & Alert status re RF borders/internal security/NATO counter-force duty, & re-deployed to support SMO, further accelerating the process IF so desired. Without having to increase the current <1% active reservist callup.
All whilst RF is essentially still running a peace time economy, though with a boosted, tuned, enhanced & NOW directly State controlled, managed by technocrat commissions, Defense Sub-Economy/Defense industry ..
Empire is in a real bind ... & only the end result is what matters.
Recall RFs annual defense budget is only ~68 Billion per year, & they have only spent an additional ~11 Billion on the SMO so far, whilst they have zero State debt & significant increased revenues/trade ...
Then there is of course China, Iran, OPEC+, & RoW ...
@ Thim | Dec 10 2022 19:34 utc | 37
High class satire. Bravo. Give The Onion a call, I here they're recruiting. :)
When Russia gave up some territory in the autumn, the Western propaganda machine went nuts -- great Ukr victories, next week in Moscow, Putin overthrown blah blah blah.
What happens when Ukr is forced to give up Bakhmut and the others?
Pretty hard to spin that one away.
So no wonder wretched people "who've never fired a rifle before" are being shoved into the Bakhmut slaughterhouse.
As to what Russia will do with this huge force sitting there. Maybe nothing if Kiev keeps sending men to be slaughtered, maybe a big deep penetration operation to turn the whole area into a cauldron, maybe a series of destructive raids into the rear area to disrupt and destroy. Lots of options. And lots of time to do it.
Western re-industrialisation? Hah hah!
Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | Dec 10 2022 20:19 utc | 58
circumspect #52
The price for real peace and freedom would have been just some simple words and agreements. Ordo Ab Chao.
Agreed, such a tragic lost opportunity and all to enrich the military manufacture regime. We were denied the sorely needed peace dividend when the cold war ended and the chance for a much demilitarised world enjoying the undivided fruits of production was realistically within reach.
That too was squandered.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 10 2022 20:20 utc | 59
Script & digital dollars
You condescendingly blow hard re 'tactical analysis' 'spectrum autists' ? Look in the mirror.
Posted by: Outraged | Dec 10 2022 18:53 utc | 23
---
It's scrip, dummy. Self own for all to see. Lulz
BTW, if digital 1s and 0s have no value, then how does the mic even operate? Why is there an actual Nato with real weapons?
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 20:26 utc | 60
b:
The international relation within Europe are getting worse. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has declared that he wants Germany to be the leading power in Europe. Germany's neighbors, and most of its own population, are not happy with that.
Give Scholz the Nobel prize! (a must read)
Posted by: blueswede | Dec 10 2022 20:30 utc | 61
Posted by : Passerby. You are aware that Russia could confiscate a similar value of western assets in Russia right ? Why no one ever talks about this is a mystery.
Posted by: Phariah | Dec 10 2022 20:31 utc | 62
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 10 2022 19:41 utc | 42
On the issue of the West not having enough capability to prop up the war, the US spends 60 billion on Ukraine annually, which is far less than the so called "war on terror". So yeah, they can keep the war for a long time, as Putin himself was recently forced to admit.
On buying stuff, i mean that they can buy lots of weaponry and ammo from non NATO countries around the globe too. Ukraine apparently even has no problems with getting chinese drones, later being militarised.
On military production, i heard that many times before, how the West could not supply Ukraine, only to see more and more Ukrainian armies formed and offensives launched.
Probably it was hopes like that that led to the debacles in Kharkov and Kherson.
I heard something else as well. That the US is using a salami tactic approach towards Russia, gradually increasing support for Ukraine, but not making too much noise about it so that it does not provoke it.
The situation before the joke called SMO (or maybe the "strange war" ala 1940?) was not the same. There were no 40k russians getting killed anually (military plus civilian), there was no war on the border regions, there were no things burning or blowing up all over Russia (pretty sure many of those are sabotage).
In fact, russian military casualties (maybe 25k per year) are far higher than US military casualties per year in Vietnam.
So overall i rate many of these as poor performances for Putin.
Posted by: ObseverBG | Dec 10 2022 20:32 utc | 63
If NATOstan gets involved it will be a nuclear war.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 10 2022 19:52 utc | 50
---
Please go outside and get some fresh air. don't you understand Russian oligarchs, london bankers and us capitalists are all from the same tribe?
It doesn't take a genius to observe the ebb and flows of empires, as well as note one constant is always present.
The US is nearing the end of its useful shelf life - all recognize Russia ascending in the east.
Nukes destroy all, but 5,000 years of subterfuge suggest very high odds of success setting up a new store front in moscow
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 20:33 utc | 64
"But we have to pay a much higher price if our freedom and peace are threatened through Putin winning in Ukraine."
I have begun trying to avoid such harsh language, but Stoltenberg is a complete moron if he believes that. What Stoltenberg needs to be worried about is Russia losing in the Ukraine. It is Russia losing in the Ukraine that will force them to escalate to the rest of Europe. How is it that these people are blind to such a fundamental aspect of this conflict? Russia is fighting because all other options have been exhausted except for submission to NATO, and that is not an option for Russia. Russia therefore cannot lose in the Ukraine before exhausting all of their weapons.
Keep in mind: "Why would we need a world without Russia?"
There will be no Russia if NATO wins in the Ukraine, and if there is no Russia, then there will be no world. The calculus is simple, so why do so many in the West not understand it?
Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 10 2022 20:34 utc | 65
"Someone is going to do something extremely stupid and we will all pay the price."
JustAMaverick | Dec 10 2022 17:48 utc | 1
Yes. The longer Russia dallies the greater the odds of a bad ending, simply because the West isn't going anywhere as long as the apparatus of the current Kiev regime's allowed to stand--if that political bridge of Kiev-West stands, Russia will go down. The go-ahead has been given to the Ukrainian regime to shell Russia itself as it is being reported. Take Ze and his mad group down or fight them till you lose to them. The West is serious and tenacious--either destroy the Western installed regime or wait till doomsday comes along.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Dec 10 2022 20:34 utc | 66
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 20:33 utc | 64
" and us capitalists"
Did you just out yourself ;)
"all recognize Russia ascending in the east"
Outside of this bar, not terribly many. The country ascending in the east is genearally held to be another country...
"5,000 years of subterfuge suggest very high odds of success setting up a new store front in moscow"
...As you also seem to recognize here, but for some reason can't put 1 and 1 together. Putin already goes to get orders / permits from Xi for everything big.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 10 2022 20:44 utc | 68
From Scott Ritter's interview with a Russian officer, it seems Russia is concerned with provoking a more all out war with NATO. So they are debating the next operations from that perspective - or might not be best to win too quickly.
It seems like a great bluffing game. The West is threatening full NATO involvement when most members don't want to join at all and so it will likely not happen. But it could lead to nuclear war, so one should never downplay it.
Posted by: Matthew | Dec 10 2022 20:51 utc | 69
From Scott Ritter's interview with a Russian officer, it seems Russia is concerned with provoking a more all out war with NATO. So they are debating the next operations from that perspective - or might not be best to win too quickly.
It seems like a great bluffing game. The West is threatening full NATO involvement when most members don't want to join at all and so it will likely not happen. But it could lead to nuclear war, so one should never downplay it.
Posted by: Matthew | Dec 10 2022 20:51 utc | 70
"The expected large winter attack may not be coming at all."
Several comments here grab onto this sentence and conclude "no winter offensive" ?
Well, here is some news: none of us know what Russian plans are.
When Putin announces the disposition of his mobilized forces, he could be spreading misinformation or he could be telling the truth or half the truth.
Winter has not really even set in yet. Freeze days are followed by thaw. Russia may or may not have plans for a grand offensive. My own suspicion is that they are totally opportunistic. Local attacks along the line probing for weakness and forcing the AFU to continue fighting. They will prepare a large armored, mobile reserve and hold it to exploit opportunities IF they arise.
The BIG gamble they are taking is the assumption that time is on their side.
There appears to be good support for the war in Russia for now, but leaving hundreds of thousands of mobilized reservists in uniform for year after year is not going to fly. I think they can keep these guys for 1 year or maybe 2, but not much longer. So the odds are, this needs to be wrapped up by September 2023.
For this winter, the time to look for a Russian offensive will be January/February. Its not consistently cold enough yet. If we dont see any big offensive, I'm not sure that tells us anything. If they can just keep the AFU engaged, thats mission accomplished. Even if it gets cold and nothing happens, cold and disease will start inflicting casualties on the AFU. If the Russians can keep their troops warm, fed, dry and rotated while forcing the AFU to fight - by the next dry season the AFU will be exhausted and the Russians will be relatively rested.
Posted by: Dan Farrand | Dec 10 2022 20:51 utc | 71
If NATO is foolish enough to confront Russia directly, I hope the EU leaders aren't naive enough to think that the US will allow any fighting on American soil. In fact, like in Ukraine, the US will fight Russia right down to the last European. All the fighting will be done on European soil, even if it comes to nuclear weapons. Scholtz's pipe dream of a resurgent German power in Europe will never happen. If the Europeans don't quash it, the Americans will. Germany screwed the only real friend it had -- Russia. Now it deserves to burn in hell.
Posted by: Janet | Dec 10 2022 21:01 utc | 72
From my little vantage point in Sydney, I see Ukraine is becoming one giant cauldron. There is a chance a spring offensive from Russia will not be needed though if Russia can afford it, preparing for such an offensive would be helpful as part of a range of options.
The Russians should do all they can to draw NATO into the developing cauldron while bolstering their defences along their new borders in Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson oblasts. If the depths of the cauldron can be kept close to Poland, that would better still.
When the dust finally settles, western and NW Ukraine will truly be for the taking by Poland and what remains of NATO - if either can afford the cost of cleaning up and rebuilding ruined lands.
Posted by: Jen | Dec 10 2022 21:02 utc | 73
Russia is not "dallying". it is winning the war in the most efficient manner. it is entirely up to the west how dangerous the situation becomes. will the US accept defeat in this conflict? stay tuned.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 10 2022 21:08 utc | 74
@ B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 20:26 utc | 60
Look up 'Money script', dummy. It is very applicable indeed in your specific case. Is that a 2x self own for you now, hm ? Lulz.
Oh, & you clearly choose to completely ignore & fail to respond in any way to every other factor other than your specific ad-hominem retort. Sigh.
@ B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 20:33 utc | 64
How droll. Now its the inane/insane FUD conspiracy theories ?
Am curious, why are US, UK, EU billionaires not called Oligarchs ?
Is this an analogue as to why Empires captagon, combat amphetamine mix, homicidal terrorists & nazi's going back decades are called FreeDumb Fighters yet those Empire habitually droned, assassinated, bombed, murdered, starved & tortured are called ... insurgents, enemy combatants or merely ... collateral ? You really seem to have your imperialist lingua franca down pat, real 'tight'.
Oh, so RF, China, Iran, OPEC+ & RoW are all secretly working, behind the curtain, hand-in-glove with & on behalf of Empire ?
What's next then ? UFO's & invisible teleporting lizard overlords from another galaxy ? All our base belong to them ? Wow, cool ...
Is Russia at "war" with NATO?
Yes
Is NATO at "war" with Russia?
Yes
This has always been the reality. These questions about "boots on the ground" and "red lines crossed" are pedantic given the reported shipment of arms and training of resources.
Part of me still says that this is an agreed upon demilitarization of NATO, along with its elimination. The arms left in the EU countries might never get replaced and that would be a good thing, IMO
/////
In response to
"
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 18:26 utc | 12
The money system is very important, but it is not the be all and end all. The laws of economics are not like the laws of physics. Debt can be cancelled, defaulted, currencies can be reset, alternative forms of money used... there are different winners and losers that's all. Banks creating debt as money for interest was and is an absolutely blazing brilliant scam - but its demise is not the end of civilisation.
Posted by: Tim | Dec 10 2022 20:02 utc | 53
"
Thanks for the comment Tim. I have been characterizing the "winners and losers", as you refer to the factions, as public/private finance, with China, Russia now and others on the public side and the cult of global folks that own the BIS, Fed, City of London Corp, etc. on the private side.
I have been calling out Pope Frank and King Chuck as titular members of the usury fed barbaric cancer of the past/present form of social organization of the West for years here at MoA. I expect there are other members of the cult going back centuries and the challenge they face now with the China/Russia axis will hopefully let our species evolve beyond the concept of private finance at the core of the social contract.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 10 2022 21:11 utc | 76
It seems as if some posts by different writers share common talking points: begin saying you want the best for Russia, and end saying Putin has to be ousted to win the war. If Ukraine's strategy on the battlefield is as uninspiring as its strategy on the internet, then the losses in Bakhmut are predictable.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 10 2022 21:12 utc | 77
why did China change its covid policies?
not because it is a bioweapon but because China knows that the US uses public health against the public, via sanctions regimes, IP "law", etc., and thereby turns the common cold into a weapon against a populace, China has maintained its strict covid policies.
China sees the writing on the wall. thus the loosening of covid policies (for better or worse for the Chinese people...)
China knows NATO ain't doing shit for a long long time. Waste who knows what resources in Ukraine? yes. be a threat to China in anyone's lifetime? can you hear my eyes rolling?
so "what then?" there will be so much blowback into the West from the forces we've cultivated. it's long underway already. gotta rebuild that military by crushing the working class, ruthlessly. it's going to get much crueler in the west, unless people stop participating in this insane society. lots of angry, frustrated and guilt-driven ruling classmates will vent their ruthlessness at home. more facial recognition technology anyone? more cops? more laws against work stoppage? more recruitment of autistic kids to fight drone wars?
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Dec 10 2022 21:15 utc | 78
Not surprised. US is beefing up arms production for Ukraine, and Israel under Bibi might soon start supporting Ukraine. Time is not on Putins side assuming he really wants to achieve the objectives stated at the start of the SMO which was not limited to demilitarization. Donetsk is still getting hammered on a daily basis it seems
Posted by: Pete22 | Dec 10 2022 21:20 utc | 79
Why was my comment deleted? I just said MoA has become delusional and shouldn't have recommended water jet toilets in 2020.
Posted by: Hans Muster | Dec 10 2022 19:45 utc | 43
It wasn't deleted peanut. You just didnt see it.
With observational as bad as that I can safely scroll through your dreck. Thanks for giving me a warning.
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 10 2022 21:32 utc | 80
Ukraine/Donbas weather is similar to rural areas here in southern Ontario. Most years, the ground is not reliably frozen enough for heavy vehicles until early January.
Too early to say their will be no winter offensive.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 10 2022 21:33 utc | 81
My wild guess is Moscow will not undertake a big offensive until Washington is weakened by either financial chaos brought on by de-dollarization or by social chaos brought on by further impoverishment of our middle class.
It’s also my guess that the EU is mostly irrelevant in Moscow’s calculations.
Posted by: Exile | Dec 10 2022 21:33 utc | 82
Back to ground level.
Odessa has said that they will not have energy back for 3-4 months so would the 1.5 million inhabitants be good enough to leave for somewhere else.
Crimea came under (drone?) attack, a military barrack was reported destroyed, (other drones eliminated) and HIMARS destroyed a restaurant in Melitopol. (Civilian victims.)
***
I reckon that the Odessa theater will start to get prominence. 10 Abrahams were reported arriving nearby, and the UkieNATs will try to use these to get attention and draw troops away from Bakmut etc.
Based on supply routes and the build up of fortifications, Odesssa is now evacuating civilians as happened in Kherson, so what do they expect to arrive in the near future?
*****
However, as wars spread all by themselves, the situation in Syria, implies that the US is joining the SDF and Kurds with ISIS, as a potential way of causing more mayhem. (Increasing the number of fighters to protect oil theft and screw up the Turks)
*
Israel has not bombed anyone for several days, so now they are threatening Beirut airport. Herzbollah incitation? This, I suppose, is because the Russians and Iranians now have a military self-defense understanding and cooperation. As Israel regularly use Iran as a "justification", and Iran now has a bear behind, they will try to find someone weaker to bomb.
***
Gas is flowing strongly, as the gas pipeline from Russia has now reached the Yangtse area; NS 1 and 2 - going, going, gone? Scholtz and the greens must be so....... pleased?
***
Money-wise, the Senate (I think) are bringing out new sanctions against anyone that may use Russian gold as a medium of exchange. If Russia wants to screw ALL the west, then making a gold backed ruble would be an excellent way, and the US has seen the danger. Glazief wanted to do this some time ago, but the "lady" in charge of the Russian Central Bank has/is against this.
Declan Hayes erupts with another of his excellent rants, "Twilight of the Gods", and warms up with the following:
"Europeans have embraced American manacles more readily than any other subjugated people have in history.
"Not only has America slain all Europe’s gods but our moral cowardice ensures there can be no room for either our gods or us in Valhalla. We are a sorry, doomed lot. We Europeans have embraced our American manacles more readily than any other subjugated people have in history. The best protest we can manage is that of the German football team who were laughed out of Qatar all the way back to their obese nation."
He's certainly honed his craft, but then he'd be first to admit he's provided with an over-abundance of material to employ.
The trouble between Germany and Poland even went on because Germany's offer aimed at an integration of those Patriot systems into NATO-air defense, but Poland all at once was talking about an integration into polish command structures.
Sorry, I forgot, where I read this and can't find it any more.
The quarrel is against the background of Poland's rejection of a participation in the German-lead European Sky Shield Initiative ESSI, that Germany presumably wants to reach at least de facto by this offer.
https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/news/detail/9108
Posted by: Moses | Dec 10 2022 21:56 utc | 85
Knowing this, the usa strategy in ukraine, Russia (and China for that matter) is entirely logical. Evil maybe (depending if you dont ascribe natural predator prey dynamics to humans), but well reasoned and executed.
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 10 2022 18:26
You have a funny idea of logic.
A logical path would have been to forge a close relationship with Russia, a minor power, to confront China a real great power and true peer rival to the US. Instead the US pushes China and Russia closer into a close alliance. Logical ?
Not content with shooting themselves in the right foot they have now almost concluded with pushing Saudi Arabia and Iran into an alliance thereby shooting their left foot. Now the Three big regional powers in the middle East are aligned against the US. Logical ??
Couple this with the 9 rounds of sanctions the brainiacs in the EU placed on themselves I am hard pressed to find logic at work in the West.
You will have to try harder alphanumeric person.
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 10 2022 21:57 utc | 86
B wrote: “Over the last months the daily report of the Russian ministry of defense listed on average some 300 Ukrainian casualties per day. But the ministry does not report the casualties from Bakhmut as the operations of the private military contractor Wagner are not included in it.“
Does this mean that Ukrainian soldiers killed by Russian private mercenary group Wagner aren’t counted? Or did B mean that Mozart casualties in Bakhmut aren’t counted and mistyped Wagner for Mozart?
Posted by: Butte Bill | Dec 10 2022 22:07 utc | 87
.As you also seem to recognize here, but for some reason can't put 1 and 1 together. Putin already goes to get orders / permits from Xi for everything big.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 10
Ah the Penis returns. Please provide evidence that Putin gets orders from Xi.
Typical penis, has a head but no brains.
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 10 2022 22:11 utc | 88
Impressive testimony by the recently liberated Victor But, it could not be otherwise after fourteen years in the US prison system with geopolitics added to the mix. I truly recommend it, it might be available with English subtitles on the RT English channel which is not available here, it is so in Russian, strange criteria for censoring. Very strong willed individual with humor he gives a good description of a penal system designed by the nazis that found refuge in North America -that is the US and Canada- after WWII as Victor himself states. Worth watching.
https://vk.com/video-40316705_456384920
Posted by: Paco | Dec 10 2022 22:17 utc | 89
"The Russian do not need to attack. Their task is to demilitarize Ukraine. As long as the Ukrainians come to the front lines and attack the Russians their is no need to launch a large attack on them."
How can they "demilitarize Ukraine" when they are stuck in the SE and can't even remove Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbass. Meanwhile NATO is militarizing Ukraine sending in more and more weapons which are able to do more damage to the Donbass. The people and infrastructure of Donbass are destroyed while Russia supposedly "destroys" Ukrainian troops coming to them.
But this can go on a very long time, as Ukraine has vast manpower and is getting help from Poland and other countries. I think bloggers use the excuse of Ukrainian forces coming to Russian forces to be destroyed instead of admitting Russia can't or isn't willing to muster enough forces and power to advance.
That Ukraine still has superior manpower in the area and is able to replenish losses, shows the Russian claims of Ukrainian forces' deaths is overexaggerated estimates, including estimates including injured in the numbers. Many injured can be back fighting soon or relatively soon. There are plenty of active soldiers with battle scars from earlier injuries. Many "injured" can't be counted as down and out for long, so these numbers should not be conflated with the numbers killed reports.
Posted by: MiniMo | Dec 10 2022 22:22 utc | 90
It is becoming more obvious that Ukraine/West is now changing their tactic - to more sabotage attacks inside RUssia; in the last few days there were fires in the shopping mall in Moscow, today - fire in the Pushkin Museum! The attacks on the military airports are to be seen in the same context - there is new madness and new push to provoke Russia.
Posted by: fanto | Dec 10 2022 22:23 utc | 91
”The Russian do not need to attack. Their task is to demilitarize Ukraine. As long as the Ukrainians come to the front lines and attack the Russians their is no need to launch a large attack on them.”
Exactly. No reason to rush anything if I was in their shoes. NATO/Ukraine seem to be doing a good enough job of punching themselves in the face over and over. The RF seems to be prepared for any wildcards. The others not so much.
Posted by: dust | Dec 10 2022 22:25 utc | 92
"Over the last months the daily report of the Russian ministry of defense listed on average some 300 Ukrainian casualties per day."
These very rounded numbers are ESTIMATES and not proof. Russia very well could be over-estimating. If they are including injured in the number then it is misleading, as many injured can be back fighting soon or very soon. You do have active soldiers with scars and old injuries showing they should not be counted out when injured.
Injured should not be counted or should be separated out in the reports.
Posted by: MiniMo | Dec 10 2022 22:29 utc | 93
But it could lead to nuclear war, so one should never downplay it.
Posted by: Matthew | Dec 10 2022 20:51
A nuclear war is very likely. The only actor in this that can change that scenario is the USA as they have driven this chaotic bus since 1945.
2023 is a crucial year, perhaps the most important in this civilizations history. Unfortunately I see a restless, angry and impatient global empire,on the verge of collapse, with a propensity for striking out wildly .
This time next year it should become clear.
Stay tuned.
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 10 2022 22:31 utc | 94
US is NATO and US want no part in a direct war with Russia. British and four-eyes propaganda is going off the charts as are idiots like Stoltenburg. US has left them swinging in the breeze. Wiley E Coyote types getting a gravity lesson.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 10 2022 22:36 utc | 95
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 10 2022 22:36 utc | 94
heh. the acme industrial complex fails again.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 10 2022 22:38 utc | 96
Russia needs to be much smarter and more powerful if it is ever going to move forward in this war. It also should be giving the Donbass people more anti-aircraft and fighters. It is the Donbass which is depleted of manpower. They are in worse shape than Ukraine which has abundant manpower. It seems Russians don't want to risk their lives fighting with the Donbass forces. Russia will eventually lose the war and Donbass if it isn't willing to be brave in this fight.
Posted by: MiniMo | Dec 10 2022 22:44 utc | 97
@ b. You are a treasure. In wonderment how you do such great work. Deeply appreciative.
Several commenters spewing sour grapes and are in competition with each other for the MoA title Grand Troller-in-Chief. They’re so disappointed that RF is not doing “Shock & Awe” aka Iraq using Mother-of-all-bombs on Ukraine.
All these arm-chair yahoos opining Putin should do this, or that please, please send a tweet to Maria and wait for her reply.
= = = =
"Wrong again. After bellowing for months about the coming Russian offensive, headed by "General Winter", now reality sets in, and it is recognized that there will not be any such offensive.”
The NATO forces would tear up the Russian armour with their superior weapons, and their endless supply of troops (from a base population of 800 million).[.]
Posted by: Thim | Dec 10 2022 19:34 utc | 37
Newsflash. Winter has not been cancelled in the Northern Hemisphere.
NATO is going into direct contact with depleted forces and weapons in maybe a dozen wet paper bags. Suggest you watch the Video Part 1 discussion Dr. Michael Vlahos and Col. Douglas MacGregor.
+ + + + + +
Bakhmut. November 27, 2022, Posted on HalTurnerRadio’s website. Sometimes he has the goods…from Intel sources says he hmm maybe just maybe.
FWIW Mutiny Near Bakhmut:
Polish "Mercenaries" Open-Fire, and KILL Ukraine Army Commanders Near Bakhmut"
An altercation has taken place between Polish "Mercenaries" fighting FOR Ukraine, and Ukrainian Army officers commanding them. The Polish Mercs and a grouping of about ten thousand Romanian "Mercenaries" also fighting for Ukraine, were allegedly ordered by Ukrainian Army officers to attack Russian positions around Bakhmut. Fierce fighting has been going on there for weeks and Ukraine is losing.The Polish "Mercs" told the Ukrainian Army Officers it would be suicide for them and the Romanians to go attack, everyone else who has done so has been slaughtered by the fortified Russian positions.
The Ukrainians then allegedly told the Polish either attack or WE will kill you for Mutiny, at which point the Polish drew their weapons and KILLED the Ukrainian commanders.
10,000 Romanians?
Could it have happened and swept away in the mudflows?
Posted by: Likklemore | Dec 10 2022 22:51 utc | 98
If one can ignore the Trotskyism/Marxism this is a well made 2 hour video with opinions and information from many countries.
Well worth a 2 hour viewing.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Dec 10 2022 22:52 utc | 99
Money-wise, the Senate (I think) are bringing out new sanctions against anyone that may use Russian gold as a medium of exchange. If Russia wants to screw ALL the west, then making a gold backed ruble would be an excellent way, and the US has seen the danger. Glazief wanted to do this some time ago, but the "lady" in charge of the Russian Central Bank has/is against this.Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 10 2022 21:36 utc | 82
Russian gold is already sanctioned by the US, obviously not everyone outside the usual suspects complies. In the spring, Russia's CB did say they would "buy" (not sell) gold at a fixed rate of $5,000 roubles per gram. That was below market value at the time and I do not know if it has changed with the later rouble appreciation and/or Russian inflation. It was just one more way to get more roubles in circulation, a necessary measure to facilitate bi-lateral trade in native currencies.
It is not about creating a gold-backed rouble.
As long as Russia has a trade surplus everything should be fine. If they are forced to sell gold, it becomes a problem very quickly. Recall that the original US problems with gold were a result of increasing deficits in trade and spending.
It does not "screw ALL the west", except that it is one small component of the complete sanctions busting toolkit.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 10 2022 23:01 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Russia is in this for the long haul and understand now exactly who and what they are confronted with. They will be conservative, pummel the Ukrainians with artillery and slowly strangle Ukraine by destroying it's critical infrastructure, all the while protecting and increasing their military capabilities for what they must believe at this point will be an inevitable military confrontation with NATO.
The west has gone insane...on pretty much every level. It has reached a level of dystopia that I feel I wake up each day in the Matrix waiting for Agent Smith to come and get me...for simply refusing to stay within the designated lines...
How can this not end in all out conflagration with the entire western world being led by madmen and outright psychopaths. Someone is going to do something extremely stupid and we will all pay the price. At this point I really no longer care of I go down, as long as the Empire of Lies goes down with me.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Dec 10 2022 17:48 utc | 1