Donbass Lives Matter | Dec 25 2022 20:13 utc | 191
There has been video of latest model T-90’s at mobilized training camps for some time. Now there is also video of Amarta tanks at the training grounds. 150,000 of the mobilized still in training. Those tanks are not for defensive/ static line warfare. When the time is right they will roll over the nazi Ukrainians and nato mercs in the Donbas. Perhaps hey will go further but I think not. Other egions are not as heavily ethnic Russia/pro Russian as the four regions that are now part of Russia. Anywhere that has a significant anti Russia minority leaves Russia open to sabotage ect.
Russia is now in the process of moving from a peace time military to a war time military. War at this scale brings out problems that don’t show up in peace time exercises. Looking at attrition ratios, Russian military have performed well but I have seen there are problems with mid and lower level bureaucracy. Putin is now directly overseeing a transformation. I think infantry, artillery, tank forces will be brought up to something like the quality of Russia’s special forces in terms of equipment and training.
Russia is fighting Nato, Ukraine simply the battlefield. When Nato canot dent Russian defenses, it turns its guns on the soft targets – the civilians. Since the start of the SMO, all civilians have had a free ticket to Russia, either as refugees for the duration or permanent residents. We see the tragedy of Nato shelling of Donbas towns and cities. Why are the wives and children not sent back to somewhere beyond the range of Nato shelling? I know if I had a young family in a war zone that is the first thing I would do.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 26 2022 1:06 utc | 204

“Russia is fighting Nato, Ukraine simply the battlefield.”
That’s right.
The narrative that Russia is fighting Ukraine is a propaganda narrative peddled by the American and Western unfree press–not to mention the fake alternative media or anti-establishment “critics.”
Russia is fighting NATO. And NATO is an American meat puppet that the USA hides behind to give the illusion of “international consensus.” As such, NATO is just a variation of the assorted Coalition of the Killings that the Americans love to courageously cower behind.
And all the bean-counting about how many Ukie troops or potential cannon fodder units that Ukraine can scrounge up is also likely a piece of related disinformation. It obscures the reality that many military personnel fighting in Ukraine are not Ukrainian but include “unofficial” military from America, Poland, Britain, Canada, and other NATO shit states.
Ukraine is not the enemy.
Ukraine is the theater of operations.
America and its NATO proxy are the enemy.

Posted by: ak74 | Dec 26 2022 1:57 utc | 206

@206 Peter AU1 | Dec 26 2022 1:06 utc – “When the time is right [Russian tanks] will roll over the nazi Ukrainians and nato mercs in the Donbas. Perhaps they will go further but I think not.
Amarynth, who did such great work at the Saker site while he was on sabbatical, and who now has her own site, offered a lovely thought the other day:

“There is much discussion on where Russia will stop in the Ukraine? You know what I think? Russia might just decide to stop at the site of the original Berlin Wall right in the middle of Germany.”

That was from her very good geopolitical retrospective of this year:
Transformative Z..oomerangs of 2022
~~
Okay, no one really expects Russia to go all the way to Berlin – although during one of Germany’s recent moments of pettiness there was a Russian official who reminded Germany that Russia did know the way there.
We always said that NATO should be grateful that Russia was only demanding a return to 1997 borders, and not to 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down. Of course, that was the first offer, and the terms of subsequent ones from Russia always get harder.
I don’t think Amarynth really believes a physical offensive all the way to Berlin either, but I think the real point is that the psychic force of the posture that Russia is still building will be such that all of Europe can imagine that scenario – that all of the western world will finally see that Russia is prepared to roll over all of it unless it settles down and quits the fuckery.
And there will be no doubt of Russia’s physical capability to do this and her spiritual resolve to do this if compelled.
~~
And especially since the nuclear spear-tipping of Belarus last week, already the overall posture of Russia has moved farther west than Ukraine’s borders.
So, it’s a whimsical point from Amarynth, and not to be taken strictly literally, I think – at least, not today. But to be taken viscerally literally, by Europe, I think, is where we’re headed. And it may take Russia a year or two to build that ultimate posture, but when it’s built, no one in Europe or NATO will have the slightest doubt that the EAST is off-limits to the west, except with Russia’s approval.
Even the neocons will accept defeat there, or at least admit to being thwarted and stymied for ideas. I think Europe is about to be faced with the serious fear it used to feel at the sheer scale of the USSR, not so much from the threat as from the incredible scale of the opponent.
We will yet see the bully stopped and begin to tread softly, as it walks in the shadow of a big stick. I have no doubt that Russia will succeed, and it will be fascinating to watch. And the Rest of the World will be watching too.
Merry Christmas 🙂

Posted by: Grieved | Dec 26 2022 2:47 utc | 208

Latest New Atlas (Brian Berletic) video with Carl Zha and Mark Sleboda, one hour 22 minutes:
Russian-Chinese Ties vs. US Aggression w/ Carl Zha & Mark Sleboda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALE6S_MmVew

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 26 2022 3:05 utc | 210

“An overall thought of mine Russia lives in the pragmatic realist world…” Your thought looks more like the dumb n’ dumber’s world. you’re telling Russia should simply abandon trillions worth of natural resources for what ? Having gone through all this war and sanction’s damage, just so when the opportunity to acquire huge swaths of land perfect for agriculture plus huge amounts of all sorts of resources, leave and pass on that ? (also leaving the pro-Russians in places like sumy, krivoi rog and Odessa out) there is nothing “pragmatic or realistic” about that, just stupid.

Posted by: Phariah | Dec 26 2022 4:16 utc | 212

“the only thing accurate…” You’re truly stupid , given you dont know even basics about Ukraine geography ( let alone history)

Posted by: Phariah | Dec 26 2022 4:21 utc | 214

Posted by: Snowleopard | Dec 25 2022 23:01 utc | 202
Back in my younger days I used work on the docks during hake (whitefish) season.
We ran two 12 hour shifts, 7 days a week with every other Sunday off.
Sundays were clean up and maintenance day.
The seasons were 3 or 4 months long.
This is pretty common in agriculture work. For manufacturing, not so much, except in situations where the industry is trying to produce lots of good in a short amount of time.
Three 8 hour shifts, seven days a week is far more common, though.

Posted by: Haassaan | Dec 26 2022 4:57 utc | 216

PeterAU1@206, i too have wondered why the vulnerable haven’t left or weren’t taken, forcibly loaded onto the waiting buses… but a friend of larch’s used to post on the saker, sometimes even now larch will post his conversations with auslander. after reading & re-reading his comments & now those few shared…i believe it’s really a matter of what happens in those moments when we find ourselves up against it & in that moment we must choose–stay & fight no matter what or go, re-group & do what we can to keep on going on. circles we worry like a worn bead given the war this war is existential for us all.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Dec 26 2022 5:48 utc | 218

The cause of this conflict can be debated, but the combatants are clear. The western hegemonic elites are infected with the disease of exceptionalism, and are unable to see the wood for the trees. The notion of democracy has crumbled to dust in front of our eyes and the masks have come off.
When nation states call for war instead of peace negotiations, then we know they have been infiltrated by the
shareholders of the MIC. As for the Russians, i think Mr Putin summed it up with his boyhood days experiences, “When you know a fight is inevitable, strike first”. Ukraine was finished the day the SMO started, now the fight is for all the marbles…we live in dangerous times.

Posted by: Genesisaker | Dec 26 2022 6:49 utc | 220

‘Big war is back’:
“Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing a number of problems. Among them are high losses, a low level of training, an extremely strong attrition of the military personnel of some units, as well as a lack of weapons and ammunition,” an unnamed military adviser from one of the Western countries quoted the publication as saying.

Financial Times (Paywalled)

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 26 2022 8:44 utc | 222

Translated from Russian FYI:
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (Operation Z: Russian Spring Warcasters) (Open/Public TG link)
(Referenced map at above link)

The map of a “dismembered” Russia in the office of the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense was shown by Ukrainian propagandists
▪️Russia is divided there into territories “given” to Ukraine, a certain CAR (apparently “Central Asian Republic”), a number of territories near China are marked with a red “K”, the Kuril Islands are given to Japan, Kaliningrad to Germany, and the northern territories to Finland.
▪️Kiev reporters noted the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, as well as parts of the Kuban, that were assigned to Ukraine and asked Budanov whether this was “the next stage after the 1991 borders,” to which he responded evasively that anything was possible.

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 26 2022 10:10 utc | 224

TASS, December 26 – 4,400 civilians have been killed in DPR, including 132 children, since Feb 17. 3,956 people, including 249 children, were injured during this period.

Posted by: rk | Dec 26 2022 10:36 utc | 226

Translated from Russian FYI, MOD Summary Dec26:
ПЕРЕХВАТ (Z) (Intercept (Z)) (Open/Public TG link)

Summary by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (26 December 2022)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.
💥 In the Kupyansk direction, up to 20 Ukrainian soldiers, an infantry fighting vehicle and two vehicles were destroyed as a result of a concentrated fire strike on the accumulation of AFU manpower and equipment near the settlement of Kislovka, Kharkiv region.
💥 In the Krasno-Limansky direction, Russian artillery fire hit AFU units in the areas of Makiivka and Nevskoye settlements of the Lugansk People’s Republic, as well as Terny and Torskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
◽️ In addition, a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group and an AFU mortar team were destroyed in the areas of Stelmakhivka and Chervonaya Dibrova in the Luhansk People’s Republic. The losses of the enemy in this direction amounted to more than 30 Ukrainian soldiers, two armored combat vehicles and two pickup trucks.
💥 In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops continued successful offensives, during which they occupied advantageous lines and positions. More than 35 Ukrainian servicemen, including five senior officers, were killed as a result of a strike on the command post of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU near Kramatorsk, Donetsk People’s Republic. Total losses of the enemy during the day in this direction were up to 100 servicemen, four infantry fighting vehicles and eight vehicles.
💥 On the South Donets direction, artillery fire and active actions of Russian troops defeated AFU units in the areas of Vladimirovka, Ugledar, Novodonetskoye and Novoselka settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic. More than 40 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles and three pickup trucks were destroyed.
💥 Rocket troops and artillery hit 63 AFU artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 79 areas. In the areas of Elizavetovka and Slovyansk settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic, temporary deployment points of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the AFU as well as foreign mercenaries were hit.
💥 Two Ukrainian Grad multiple rocket launcher vehicles were destroyed during counter-battery warfare in the areas of Pervomaiskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Kamyshevakha in the Zaporozhye region.
💥 Three Ukrainian D-30 howitzers were destroyed near Torskoye, Vodyane and Maryinka settlements of Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 A US-made M777 artillery system, which was used for shelling residential areas of Donetsk city, was uncovered and destroyed near Georgiyivka settlement of Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 Two US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, two Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers, five D-30 howitzers, as well as three units of special vehicles were destroyed near Kramatorsk, Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 Anti-aircraft defense forces destroyed seven Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of Kreminnaia, Luhansk People’s Republic, Chervonoye, Kuteynikove, Kropivnitske, Donetsk People’s Republic and Zmievka, Kherson region, overnight.
◽️ In addition, two HIMARS multiple rocket launchers were intercepted in the areas of Rubezhnoye and Krasnorechenskoye of the Luhansk People’s Republic, as well as two HARM anti-radar missiles near the settlement of Bayrak of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed ((+?) over preceding 24hrs):
– 352 aircraft,
– 192 helicopters,
– 2,731(+5) unmanned aerial vehicles,
– 399 anti-aircraft missile systems,
– 7,249(+9) tanks and other armoured combat vehicles,
– 944(+4) multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
– 3,719(+11) field artillery guns and mortars,
– 7,765(+18) pieces of special military vehicle equipment.

Comment:
Though the claimed destruction of 399 anti-aircraft missile systems has not changed for some time, the regular routine destruction of S-300/Buk AD batteries radars, which cannot be replaced or repaired(no parts)(ex-soviet manufacture), routinely renders affected AD batteries non combat-effective regardless (Kill equivalent).
15 total Arty pieces destroyed in only 24hrs (4 MBRLS & 11 Tubes) is a significant ‘uptick’ compared to the norm. In particular qty x 9 (2 HIMARS, 2 Gvozdika SPGs & 5 D-30 howitzers) in vicinity Kramatorsk alone.
IF sustained over the coming 5-10 days, in isolation, a likely indicator of targeted enemy fires(Fire Support) destruction & suppression, preparatory to significant offensive Op/s.

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 26 2022 11:51 utc | 228

IF sustained over the coming 5-10 days, in isolation, a likely indicator of targeted enemy fires(Fire Support) destruction & suppression, preparatory to significant offensive Op/s.
Posted by: Outraged | Dec 26 2022 11:51 utc | 230
Maybe time to stop playing footsie? Well, it is a new year coming. Everybody will be trying to get things started right. Yeah, I have to think so.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 26 2022 12:56 utc | 230

alek_a @ 231
Russians are more sophisticated and long-term in their thinking than the NATO decision makers, which I believe works against them. Sometimes, if a bully shoves you, you need to shove back. If “Ukrainian” drones are attacking Russian bases, then “unidentified” drones need to attack NATO assets directly. Do the Russians understand that they are facing a bunch of narcissistic sociopaths? When dealing with sociopaths, timidity is often more dangerous than retaliation!

Posted by: Donbass Lives Matter | Dec 26 2022 13:35 utc | 232

Austro German nazi Galicia is not Ukraine’s history. Yet in just a few years since the US/UK takeover of Ukraine, they have been able to spread that idiocy to a good portion of the population. US learn’t its lesson in Syria when Russia separated militias from ISIS and al Qaeda. In Ukraine they have nazi punisher units to prevent regular troops/conscripts from surrendering or retreating. They will all be killed or maimed. Nazi Ukraine is no different to the ISIS caliphate. Cannon fodder for the west that Russia will destroy. It is a tragic thing when so many allow themselves to be brainwashed. It reminds of the pied piper leading the little children away.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 26 2022 5:06 utc | 219
Best description yet Peter. Russia is faced with a hostage situation where many of the hostages have embraced their nazi leaders while others on the front lines are being shot for desertion. Hence, Russia’s hesitation.
Appreciate your posts and work on the biolabs. Thank you

Posted by: migueljose | Dec 26 2022 14:08 utc | 234

They are not idiots, but they are narcissistic sociopaths. People commonly believe that sociopaths are just really selfish, amoral individuals, but they’re actually much worse. They love taking risks, the more dangerous the better. And unfortunately, once one of them targets you, you cannot simply play defense indefinitely.
If you want to understand the psychology of the NATO decision makers, read this article: https://www.choosingtherapy.com/narcissistic-sociopath/ . Everything will make sense.

Posted by: Donbass Lives Matter | Dec 26 2022 14:40 utc | 236

Greetings fellow barflies
Once again, the Engels base, located just one hundred kms from Moscow, is targeted with a low flying drone causing the death of three technicians on the base.
I cannot fathom how a low flying drone can travel undetected over a 600 kms run into hostile territory.
Admitting it is turbofan powered, maximum speed at low altitude would be a tad below 900 Km/hr.
One full hour if a direct flight, uncomplicated by navigating around ADs.
Plenty time for some soul on the ground to call a defense center and alert to an incoming missile.
Plenty time to scramble a few fighters to intercept the bitch.
Russia possesses AWACS that can detect low flying objects. Are they all sleeping at the same time?
All this points out to either complicity somewhere along the chain of defense, Or incompetence?
Unless, unless the drone is flown from Russia itself, closer to the target.
Then, what is to prevent the crazy Brits from purveying some nukes to the crazier Ukies that will fit on this very unstoppable drone? There are US artillery shells that will fit the purpose.
The RF is not dealing seriously with this treat, I am afraid that some of the billions the US has sent to Ukraine have been used to bribe key actors in this scheme.
I mean, not even one SU30 or 35 aloft to face any unknowns and fill the fixed defense gaps?
What about giving a bloody nose to the enablers, basking in the comfort of their cocoons?

Posted by: CarlD | Dec 26 2022 14:56 utc | 238

Nato wants a big war, they are trying to make Russia “start” it. Russia for the most part has managed to avoid this situation. The last thing the Russians want is a war against 10x it’s population.
Right now the cost of the war is a massive drain on the west and fairly controlled.

Posted by: OohCanada | Dec 26 2022 15:28 utc | 240

I cannot fathom how a low flying drone can travel undetected over a 600 kms run into hostile territory.
Posted by: CarlD | Dec 26 2022 14:56 utc | 239
What makes you believe that?
Many here think that Russia is operating in Ukraine with one hand behind its back as it doesn’t want to expose its true capabilities and systems due to the potential risk of NATO doing something stupid.
Allowing these missiles through and only downing them with SHORADS at the airfield could be part of that strategy. Why allow the US Global Hawk over the Black Sea, or other INTEL assets, to ID their medium and long range SAM systems’ frequencies and locations? The unfortunate loss of a few servicemen at Engels is, in the scheme of things, is neither here nor there.
Plus no doubt there are idiots out there who now believe that if a crappy old Soviet cruise missile can get through them ‘modern’ US missiles will have home runs. Probably the same lot who think that the effectiveness of Ukrainian AD against RuAF aircraft would not apply in reverse were Russia, with its updated+ versions of those systems, faced with incoming NATO aircraft.

Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 26 2022 17:00 utc | 242

Posted by: CarlD | Dec 26 2022 14:56 utc | 239
Think of it in the opposite way. How easy will it be to defeat the security of a random US nuclear base using local support to guide a low-flying long-range drone which can be fired from within or from, say, Mexico? Let it fly through unoccupied areas only to reveal itself on terminal approach?
The US also has large swathes of unmonitored border, unoccupied areas and/or areas without radar coverage. The routes frequently used by drug cartels and smugglers.
Compare this to the current Russian base attack and you know how it could have happened.
The difference here is that US recon assets, space based, monitor radar signatures and discover routes that have low probability of interception. It is this help which makes it possible for “Ukraine” to strike nuclear bases deep in Russian territory.
There is a way to significantly cripple low-orbit satellite assets (like starlink) but it will mean that noone can use those orbits for hundreds of years. As I see it, this will happen sooner or later since escalation has been pretty linear up to now and I see no side letting up.

Posted by: alek_a | Dec 26 2022 17:29 utc | 244

JohninMK 243
The idiots out there seem to reckon that the SAMs are mobile and their location and configuration can change very quickly.
Therefore, unless NATO were going to strike at that moment the exact location of said defenses is useless.
I see no reason to put these valuable lives and bombers in harm’s way.
If the RF want to hide its assets, it should borrow a page from the Iranians and do away with the Golden Hawk, just like they did three
years ago.
I see no reason why these birds are allowed to fly over the Black Sea while spying for the enemy.

Posted by: CarlD | Dec 26 2022 17:34 utc | 246

I see no reason why these birds are allowed to fly over the Black Sea while spying for the enemy.
Posted by: CarlD | Dec 26 2022 17:34 utc | 247
Beyond time for RF to start ‘dropping’ encroaching unmanned surveillance drones ?
Posted by: Outraged | Dec 26 2022 17:49 utc | 248
I agree with you both but Putin is clearly a stickler for the law and they very carefully fly well within international airspace. Dropping a Global Hawk would be viewed by the US as an attack on them and an excuse for God knows what.
The Iranian dropping one was not comparable as their Global Hawk was in their airspace, as was the ISR aircraft near it, which was very sensibly ignored, there being a huge difference between a drone and a maned aircraft. Hence no US reaction.

Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 26 2022 20:44 utc | 248

@ JohninMK | Dec 26 2022 20:44 utc | 249
Dropping a Global Hawk would be viewed by the US as an attack on them and an excuse for God knows what.
I think until this happens and RF applies serious blinding EW on those assets, including those over the Black Sea, Baltic, along the Western Ukrainian and Belarus borders, RF military will always have to improvise and play hide and seek.
Being tapped in and listened on RF is never going to achieve a surprise momentum and the upper hand over the whole theatre.
3-4 AWACS transmit the 24/7 real-time data to Ukrainian Army, while running the drone ops from afar and in a safety of a given airspace should simply not be taking the place.
That also concerns satellite sensing, data downlinks etc.
I understand that it is not so easy, but it is doable and very necessary.
Cynicism of US and NATO of repeating the mantra that they are ‘not involved and will seek not to get involved’ is appalling.
So it just might be that neutering those assets would be the right answer and a precise warning for crossing all the possible red lines that US and NATO trampled over ever since.
And NATO/US will do nothing, because RF can up the ante very quickly, by targeting spread and a lot better definition of ‘the decision centres’ if that is not clearly understood by NATO/US.
I do not think that NATO/US can up the ante militarily, except doubling down on provoking, poking and being derogative even more towards RF in their media.
When GH (Forte6-10) and AWACS start ‘falling off the sky’ we will know that war really started at its earnest.

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 27 2022 13:44 utc | 250