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December 18, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-229
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I would recommend that those who want a clear definition of what Russia is about in the actual military process, go to the current ‘Week in Review’ thread, (where comments are encouraged not on the subject of Ukraine); read the Pepe Excobar link that b has placed therein entitled “News from the Natostan Imposed Meatgrinder”; then come back here to comment further. Have a look at the description of the French versus the British forces in Victor Hugo’s “Les Miserables” for a really graphic telling of what Pepe describes as well.
Also, it is my recommendation that people bear in mind that what is happening somewhat under the radar in Ukraine at the same time as frontwise attrition proceeds as it apparently must,is that at the rear eastward, where Russia is also concentrating on the restoration process in Mariupol and other recovered segments of a battered society, considerable process is being made. It’s a two-fold process, for those who can multitask – I can’t, so I am entirely in admiration of those who can and do.
That’s what I’m thinking about this Saint Nicholas Eve, making things better than they have been, recently and previously. Best wishes to those engaged in this task.
Posted by: juliania | Dec 18 2022 20:12 utc | 101
One should be ready and go [to Crimea],” Zelensky said. “No one would just surrender Crimea for no particular reason. Reconquest always starts with society: with its will and readiness. I believe the start has been made,” the president explained.
Zelensky didn’t provide any details about the timing of the purported operation but said that he “loves Crimea” and would be “glad to come to our de-occupied Crimea,” adding that it would be “nice” to get there in summer 2023.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25434
Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 19:23 utc | 80
Simple. Every threat is an opportunity.
No sane person in Crimea wants to be part of Ukraine, a country with no electricity, no economy, 1/5 of Russia’s GDP per capita, Russophobic beyond sanity, no prospects, no sovereignty and no future.
All Putin has to do is point these Zelenksky’s Crimea plans out to the people of Crimea, send a several hundred thousand Kalashnikovs from old Soviet stockpiles, arm the citizens to the teeth and warn Zelensky that Crimea will be Ukraine’s & NATO’s Afghanistan.
That will permanently shift the military situation in Russia’s favor as a yet another black hole of troops, ammunition and money with little cost to Russia.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Dec 18 2022 20:16 utc | 102
Something is cooking. Putin’s meeting with the headquarters of SMO, Traveling to Belarus for a Meet with Lukashenko plus the military movements there, canceled his attendance for a hockey game, no annual Q&A.
Zelensky talking about getting Crimea back soon – just the coke talking or Nato hoarding Ukroids and equipment for a major offensive again?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 18 2022 20:29 utc | 103
@97
So where exactly do they throw the infamous nuke? In the middle of ukroland or a little bit to the left?
Posted by: Vikichka | Dec 18 2022 20:35 utc | 104
Gary Heavin writes in the Epoch Times, Nuclear War: Why We Should Be Thinking About It Now
IMO he makes some important points and an interesting prediction. He writes that (Russian) hypersonic technology has made Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) obsolete. He says:
“How have the factors changed that have made MAD obsolete? First, Russia and China have surpassed the Western world’s nuclear capabilities to such a degree that the United States and its NATO allies are no longer considered equals. With hypersonic missile capabilities that our enemies possess and we do not, we’re no longer able to “mutually assure” their destruction. A missile that can travel at speeds faster than 10,000 miles per hour is unstoppable. Our missile defense system is useless against hypersonic nuclear attack, and we’ve allowed our enemies to advance their missile defense system capabilities to well exceed what we possess.”
He goes on to say:
“Launch on Warning obsolete for US because with the threat of hypersonic missiles, the fire on warning protocol is simply irrelevant. The time from launch to impact of a hypersonic missile launched from a Russian submarine targeting Washington is less than 30 seconds.”
He then makes this prediction:
“Without warning, Russia will target U.S. missile silos with hypersonic tactical nuclear weapons. These are low-yield, minimal fallout weapons, which will destroy our ability to significantly retaliate. They will also fire these weapons at our two primary submarine bases, where, at any time, half of our submarine fleet is at dock. This will all happen in just a few minutes. For good measure, Russia, North Korea, or China will fire a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse, or HEMP, weapon. This weapon would destroy the electric grid and leave the United States without power, water, internet, food supply chains, and fuel. Notice that with all these weapons, there’s no significant nuclear fallout, no nuclear winter.
Next, President Joe Biden will get a phone call from Putin, and it will sound like this: “Mister Biden, your nation has just been defeated. I have spared your cities. If you should decide to retaliate with your small remaining nuclear capabilities, within three minutes, New York City and Washington will be reduced to smoldering rubble. I will at this time accept your complete and unconditional surrender.”
I find this prediction quite interesting. Anyone care to comment?
I am curious about the claim that “The time from launch to impact of a hypersonic missile launched from a Russian submarine targeting Washington is less than 30 seconds.” Any comments on that? I do know that to date the time has been 7 to 10 minutes for a SLBM warhead launched from a sub parked offshore to hit a target like Washington or Moscow.
Posted by: Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 21:01 utc | 105
I am curious about the claim that “The time from launch to impact of a hypersonic missile launched from a Russian submarine targeting Washington is less than 30 seconds.” Any comments on that? I do know that to date the time has been 7 to 10 minutes for a SLBM warhead launched from a sub parked offshore to hit a target like Washington or Moscow.
Posted by: Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 21:01 utc | 106
I have heard 5 minutes for hypersonics, but I haven’t thought about it much. 30 seconds sounds a bit fast. I don’t see why this guy would know much about it either.
I assume, it would depend on how far away it was fired from, anyway.
I could watch some of those Russian rockets take off all day though. They pop up like a Jack-in-the-box, then a little attitude jet spurts for just a snap, and it takes off so faaast you can’t follow it.
Posted by: bemildred | Dec 18 2022 21:21 utc | 106
“Then executed massive drone strikes on fortifications for couple weeks.”
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1
Russia did not have a lot of drones at the beginning. It was only thanks to Iran, a few months after the SMO started, that they had plentiful supplies of these and started to use them. Russians report their military leadership was reluctant to use them and didn’t think they were much needed.
Posted by: MiniMo | Dec 18 2022 21:37 utc | 107
The current US administration is acting like a two year old. (With apologise to two year olds who are not adults).
Most of their actions and comments these days remind me of primary school playground behaviour. The bully child that smashes all the other kids block constructions down in kindergarten just to upset everyone. When not doing that then name calling and trying to assemble a team of useful idiot kids that happily comply out of fear to terrorise everyone.
What a disgrace US governments have become.
Posted by: George | Dec 18 2022 21:37 utc | 108
Posted by: Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 21:01 utc | 106
“Without warning, Russia will target U.S. missile silos with hypersonic tactical nuclear weapons. These are low-yield, minimal fallout weapons, which will destroy our ability to significantly retaliate.
I suspect Russian hypersonic missiles can destroy U.S. missile silos with their kinetic energy alone – without a warhead, nuclear or conventional.
Next, President Joe Biden will get a phone call from Putin, and it will sound like this: “Mister Biden, your nation has just been defeated. I have spared your cities. If you should decide to retaliate with your small remaining nuclear capabilities, within three minutes, New York City and Washington will be reduced to smoldering rubble. I will at this time accept your complete and unconditional surrender.”
Actually this may work the other way around: It is the party that survived a nuclear first strike that can demand from the other party unconditional surrender.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 21:46 utc | 109
Russian Telegram says their fighters (DPR) broke through Marinka, and that is why Ukraine is shelling Donetsk so heavily, they’ve even attacked a children’s hospital.
However, pro-Ukie/anti-Russians say the Russian forces don’t control Marinka. So what is the truth?
Here is a message from the Donbass fighters:
Appeal of servicemen to residents of Donetsk
📝 Dear citizens, we, military understand how tired you are of these attacks, that it’s dangerous everywhere. Our families also live in the city. This is hard for us. We do EVERYTHING in order to pull the enemy as far as possible from the city borders
📝 Take care of yourself. We fight. We’re doing everything we can to make sure this ends.
📝 We promise – the enemy will be driven back.
📝 Dear fellow countrymen, we are now conducting heavy offensive operations to move the scum from the borders of our city. Each fighter to the last gives himself to this fight.
📝 We are methodically advancing every day. The enemy is firing at our dear Donetsk. Yes, it’s hard for us, but we don’t give up, we move forward! Yes, all NATO countries are helping the enemy, but this does not stop us. Be patient, dear ones. Victory will be ours!
📝 We see how hard it is for you. Take care of yourself. We will avenge every dead person!
Posted by: MiniMo | Dec 18 2022 21:52 utc | 110
Why are Russian attacks on energy infrastructure so ineffective?
Are they imprecise?
Is it possible to use bigger missile, maybe ICBM, filed with TNT instead of nuclear bomb?
Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:29 utc | 50
It was built by the Soviets to survive nukes.
Posted by: Mary | Dec 18 2022 21:57 utc | 111
The Russian Sestroretsk arms factory claims that it has developed a Starlink terminal detection radar called Borshchevik which “is designed to detect and determine the location of Starlink terminals in a 180-degree sector at a distance of up to 10 km.”
https://www.notebookcheck.net/Starlink-terminal-detection-radar-to-enter-testing-in-Ukraine-as-per-Russian-military-blogger.675439.0.html
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Dec 18 2022 21:57 utc | 112
Steven Starr@106
You are, seriously?, quoting the Epoch Times?
Obviously the article that you cite is a rationale for the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States.
This is a very serious matter a dangerous escalation, as Mike Whitney argues at ICH today.
“The primary purpose of the Nuclear Posture Review(NPR) is to deceptively “rebrand” the offensive use of nuclear weapons as a justifiable act of defense. The new criteria for using these lethal WMD has been deliberately maligned with the clear intention of providing Washington with a green light for their use and proliferation. Accordingly, US foreign policy warhawks have established the institutional and ideological framework needed launch a nuclear war without fear of legal reprisal. These arduous preparations were carried out with one objective in mind, to preserve America’s steadily-eroding position in the global order through the application of extreme violence.
“Vladimir Putin is worried. Very worried.
“In a recent press conference, the Russian President expressed his concern that the United States might be planning a nuclear strike on Russia. Naturally, Putin did not state the matter in such crude terms, but his comments left little doubt that that’s what he was talking about. Here’s part of what he said:
‘The United States has a theory of a ‘preventive strike’…Now they are developing a system for a ‘disarming strike’. What does that mean? It means striking at control centres with modern high-tech weapons to destroy the opponent’s ability to counterattack.”
We should all be worried: the neocons are in the process of kicking off a nuclear holocaust whose only beneficial result would be the incineration of the Epoch Times and its publishers
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/57397.htm
The new leader of the OUN-B, he takes over from an Australian, has many Canadian connections. The Bandera Blog has the details.
https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/new-sheriff-in-town?publication_id=34563&post_id=91099683&isFreemail=true
Posted by: bevin | Dec 18 2022 22:01 utc | 113
Not only Merkel and Poroshenko made it clear that the Minsk Agreements hold no weight whatsoever, but also Macron and Zelensky. Which means that Merkel did not reveal anything new in her interview with Spiegel. It is all in the leaked phone conversation between Macron and Putin, which took place some four days before the invasion. There you hear Macron quoting Zelensky staing that the Minsk Agreements had been designed to put the Ukrainian side at a disadvantage from the start and therefore should be dismissed. And then speaking in his own voice “I do not know where your lawyers learned law…” to the effect that in a sovereign country, all initiatives that take into account the interests of separatists are preposterous.
You can also hear Macron confirming the fact of growing tensions in the Donbass owing to actions on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: “The situation is very tense. I called Zelensky to calm down and will tell him again…” And then asking Putin “not give in to any provocation in the hours and days to come”.
Macron-Putin phonecall (EN-FR subtitles), February 20th
Posted by: Nomad | Dec 18 2022 22:05 utc | 114
“Mister Biden, your nation has just been defeated. I have spared your cities. If you should decide to retaliate with your small remaining nuclear capabilities, within three minutes, New York City and Washington will be reduced to smoldering rubble”
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 21:46 utc | 110
Putin had gone out of his way to protect civilians. He doesn’t need to use hemp. Just attack critical military sites & deep state dc.
Posted by: Msry | Dec 18 2022 22:11 utc | 115
re: bevin | Dec 18 2022 22:01 utc | 114
I thought the predictions were interesting enough to ask for comments. These days even the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists publishes bullshit articles. I don’t use the Epoch Times for a source when writing a paper lol.
I am glad you commented on my post; I think we both agree the topic is quite important, perhaps existentially important.
Posted by: Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 22:26 utc | 116
@Petri Krohn #110
How many decades old is your last attempt to calculate the kinetic energy of an object?
Ohh… But I forgot that “regular” posters here, as opposed to obnoxious trolls, do no need grade school physics.
They may just “suspect” along the lines of some “alternative analyst”…
To the curious, and not yet fully intoxicated reader, I suggest checking the relatively moderarate yield of the >10000 tonnes heavy and >18 km/s fast Chelyabinsk meteor…
Posted by: MoaMetal | Dec 18 2022 22:32 utc | 117
The whole Russian strategy is actually really funny, because it is so confusing and frustrating for the West. The West expected Russia to do shock-and-awe, occupy all of Ukraine and get stuck with an insurgency. It was supposed to be over very quickly, and then they would just wait for Russia’s economy to collapse because of the sanctions.
However, Russia refused to play that game. Instead, it has been luring Ukraine to attack with it’s larger army, and Russia uses it’s superior numbers in artillery to mow down the Ukrainians. Even when Russia advances, as in Bakhmut, it leaves an opening for Ukraine to keep pouring in troops and equipment, which just get destroyed
Now with the slow but steady destruction of Ukraine’s electrical and energy infrastructure, Ukraine will be a black hole of money for the US and EU. Whatever they rebuild, Russia will destroy.
Most of the world supports Russia, and is galloping towards de-dollarization and trade in Ruble, Yuan, Rupee, Dirham etc. Plus, the EU’s sanctions are boomeranging and deindustrializong Germany and Europe.
The whole non-Western world is laughing at the West.
Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Dec 18 2022 22:33 utc | 118
Looks like we have a new type of concern troll employing a different ruse to spread FUD. It reminds me of several seen previously down through the years here. Never an IMO; always correct no matter what. A Zanon with different spots.
Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Dec 18 2022 22:33 utc | 119
Absolutely. Everything west of Kherson (Nikolaev) – Zaporizhe – Kiev line, and probably west of Dnieper in general will “belong” to the EU – without it being able to take any sort of advantage of it. It will be an “ATO” zone, or no mans land.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 22:44 utc | 120
Why are Russian attacks on energy infrastructure so ineffective?
Are they imprecise?
Is it possible to use bigger missile, maybe ICBM, filed with TNT instead of nuclear bomb?
Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:29 utc | 50
It was built by the Soviets to survive nukes.
Posted by: Mary | Dec 18 2022 21:57 utc | 112
I notice craters all over fields in Russian videos of their attacks on Ukrainian tanks and such. It also shows the video starting with the tank or target centered in the middle but instead of shooting right then several to many seconds pass and by that time the target is off center and only then is a missile sent which often seems to go to the side. And it is hard to see what the damage is, if any due to all the dust and smoke. The video ends or shows somewhere else before the clouds of dust and smoke clear. Sometimes you can see Ukrainian soldiers running away, which means they survived.
Posted by: MiniMo | Dec 18 2022 22:47 utc | 121
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 15:36 utc | 26
Quite possibly the most depraved thing I have read lately. And that’s saying a lot, given the constant circle-jerking fantasy that passes for informed commentary here.
Kudos, you freaking psycho.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Dec 18 2022 22:49 utc | 122
97 Kalashnikov factories are all over the world about 30 factories outside RF. next it will be defunct soviet era factories as proof RF cant produce modern weapons. so how does RF get to produce only 200 a day of the most mass produced weapon in history. got any source for 200?
Posted by: hankster | Dec 18 2022 22:52 utc | 123
Augustus Caesar | Dec 18 2022 22:33 utc | 119
…yes! And the whole world now sees the US for what it has become, utterly ruthless, completely untrustworthy, to be avoided where possible, and desperate in recognition of its economic and domestic situation.
Take this article “With U.S. shale oil boom over, can world production climb?” ref
Trump and Biden have both seemingly acted on the belief that the US was oil independent despite the US constant US history of foreign oil control from Bush kissing the hand of Saudi kings to to the US litany of visitations on all the countries in the oil reserves list ref
It is truly mind boggling, they are utterly desperate from an oil point of view. It’s is clear that destruction of the EU is an attempt at reducing demand in the favour of the US.
Posted by: Saul Goode | Dec 18 2022 22:56 utc | 124
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58
RE: red lines
I agree. In American foreign policy there has been a struggle between the realists and the neocons since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The realists argue that the US should exert as much control over the world as it realistically can and the neocons argue that the US should control the entire world.
1) The neocons are delusional. They want to control more than is realistically possible.
2) The neocons appear to have won. Which is why the US crossed Russia’s “reddested of red lines” in Ukraine -William Burns 2008, see below.
https://medium.com/@benjamin.abelow/western-policies-caused-the-ukraine-crisis-and-now-risk-nuclear-war-1e402a67f44e
What this basically amounts to is that the US doesn’t recognize anyone’s red lines. When Putin wanted to talk about security in late 2021 the US blew him off. This crossed Russia’s red line in Ukraine and Russia invaded.
Either the US miscalculated or the US was trying to provoke a conflict. You can carry this train of thought further, either the US thought sanctions would work or they were planning to cripple Europe. It seems to me that it’s turtles all the way down. Some combination of hubris, arrogant delusions, and incompetence leads the neocons to assume that they can cross red lines with impunity or crush opposition if it happens.
This is a truly dangerous situation because it means there is a chance that the US will waltz across some critical red line, be it a no fly zone in Ukraine or nuclear missles in Taiwan, with either the serene conviction that no one would dare attack or the reckless bravado that the US would crush any attack.
Let us hope that Putin and Xi have adequately planned for this and that level heads prevail in the west before the neocons get anywhere near that big red button.
Posted by: team10tim | Dec 18 2022 23:01 utc | 125
Why are Russian attacks on energy infrastructure so ineffective?
Are they imprecise?
Is it possible to use bigger missile, maybe ICBM, filed with TNT instead of nuclear bomb?
Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:29 utc | 50
All national electricity grids are built with a very high degree of redundancy.
The UK uses a national control centre.
If part of the network is lost for any reason, the switchgear can be reconfigured to access several different routings to provide power where it is required.
Temporary generating capacity using gas turbines or diesel generators can be brought into operation at short notice, but with limited capacity.
Repeated attacks on critical nodes of the system will progressively reduce the options available to the control centre.
Eventually the grid will collapse – – – although it may take some time.
Posted by: Engineer-John | Dec 18 2022 23:11 utc | 126
team10tim | Dec 18 2022 23:01 utc | 126
The belief was sanctions would work.
The comments from The Biden regime: “I’ve turned the ruble to rubble”.
There was gloating Russia was cut adrift from SWIFT and would swiftly fail.
No one in any of the Military-Industrial-Counter-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think Tank complex – a term coined by CIA officer turned political activist Ray McGovern. understood Russia.
A nice living had been had telling each other what they wanted to hear.
Lone voices like the late Stephen Cohen were ostracised… and worse…
Younger and less eminent / financially placed kept their heads done.
Even now, a year later, x???billion gone, and the global energy market/supply in a parlous predicament…. Even still, the MICIMATT is superglued to the failed but prevailing view…
They “double down” and then double down again…. They don’t have a Plan B or an off ramp.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 18 2022 23:20 utc | 127
Witness.
The video you are watching was sent by a local resident evacuated from Artemovsk.
Terrorists from the SBU in the occupied territories continue to terrorize the civilian population.
The criminal Kiev regime put forward conditions for the residents of Artemovsk to go somewhere, so that militants from the Armed Forces of Ukraine could settle in civilian homes. Not everyone met these conditions.
On what grounds is this being done at all, a large number of people were outraged?
Those who did not leave, and began to defend their rights, Ukrainian commanders, gave the order to shoot and then they went home… You understand that a resident was able to shoot only one shooting, but according to him, more than 25 civilians, including women and children, were shot, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine this does not play any role.
Spread it everywhere, and also tell your family and friends, if you see criminal punishers in uniform on the streets, make sure that they do not notice you, run to a safe place if possible. By these actions you will save your life.
https://t.me/s/HersonVestnik
>No telegram account needed
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 18 2022 23:23 utc | 128
I see “experienced” managed to tie up the entire thread with nonsense to which everyone else responded. With zero useful news, this thread is a waste.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 18 2022 23:42 utc | 129
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
That logic AB makes complete sense. A decapitation strike would have no exposed the West of being agreement incapable. The war on the battle field is but a minor front in a broader war. China and the Global south needed to be convinced that the best way forward was to expose the wizard behind the curtain now.
Posted by: RiNS | Dec 18 2022 23:50 utc | 130
@ Richard Steven Hack | Dec 18 2022 23:42 utc | 130
i think that was their plan and a number of suckers fell for it..
Posted by: james | Dec 19 2022 0:12 utc | 131
unimperator @121
Everything … west of Dnieper in general will “belong” to the EU – without it being able to take any sort of advantage of it.
The question is, who will be paying back all these multibillion-dollar “aid” packages? Western Ukrainians may find it practical to migrate elsewhere to avoid austerity measures for the rest of their lives and for generations to come. As far as I know, Great Britain only recently paid its World War II debts to the United States…
Posted by: Nomad | Dec 19 2022 0:22 utc | 132
@ Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 21:01 utc | 106 with the comment about MAD being obsolete…thanks
The scenario of Russia having military dominance does fit with some other happenings that keep niggling at me.
1. At the beginning of this year, Biden, Xi and Putin put out some public statement to the effect that none of their countries would use nukes this year…..too lazy to look up deets
2. We are watching a NATO equipment and (anti-Russia) personnel destruction since Feb and continuing that seriously is hindering war making ability across Europe in the future unless major military buildup….how is that funded?
3. Empire is/has consciously excluded Russia from the global private finance system which is forcing the creation of an alternative system of finance with China and other nations support.
4. The public display of empire puppets and minions is showing to the RoW the true nature of empire domination in contrast to the measured response of pressure by Russia.
I am sure there are other examples but let me continue my thoughts.
So, what if the Russia/China axis knows it has military superiority and wants to force the God Of Mammon cult to come to terms or face extinction along with the rest of us?…..I expect Russia and China to know who the members of the God of Mammon cult are and are/have negotiated a transition away from a Banker’s War world.
Part of that transition away from a Banker’s War world is to eliminate big chunks of
the equipment and personnel supporting the Jackboot approach to global politics…..and then crash the world economies so that the new development/redevelopment is public focused and not military jackboot for elite.
I may be a dreamer but I am not the only one….
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 19 2022 0:36 utc | 133
@Arch Bungle 30
You wrote: “See M.A.D doctrine. The Red Lines are well known by both sides.”
General Keith Kellogg (ret) is explaining on Fox News that we have to give Ukraine the Patriot missile system and whatever Ukraine needs; that we are a proxy to this war and we have to beat Russia on the battlefield, and then Putin falls. He goes on that we can’t be afraid of Russia using nukes because if they use them, they will be a pariah in the world, so Putin may threaten nukes, but he will never use them…so we have to escalate and win this war, that the Patriot missile system is just one part of the game, they need more and we have to supply whatever they need to win.
Ok, so, in the face of morons like this saying we should not be concerned about the use of nukes because he’s sure Putin won’t actually use them, thus we should “super escalate” and then Putin will break. Does this sound reasonable to you? Do you think we’re in safe hands with people who think like this in charge?
My hit on this is this idiot doesn’t have any specific conditions set by Putin that would cause the use of hypersonic nukes, so he rattles on and on about how we should not fear Putin because he will not actually use nukes. My view is that saying something is a red line doesn’t mean anything to him. You have to say “If you do X, I will do Y.” In other words, these folks need to know that you aren’t just blowing smoke, that if they send Patriot missiles, for example, then you would view that as a direct involvement in the war and you will in fact strike one or more EU and/or American cities.
However, this has to be said loud enough that the people in the EU and America know the risks being taken and how they may suffer as a result.
And you would say?
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 19 2022 0:41 utc | 134
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 19 2022 0:36 utc | 134
That is a very interesting comment. Thank you for that. Honestly hadn’t thought of that. That would answer a lot of questions regarding Ukraine.
Posted by: dust | Dec 19 2022 0:52 utc | 135
Zelensky’s undelivered speech for the FIFA world cup intro. “Enjoy”..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7r1Gzq0D1UU
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 19 2022 1:16 utc | 136
@ psychohistorian | Dec 19 2022 0:36 utc | 134
I would love to think that might be the case but China was too unprepared and still is. It has many internal problems with the exhaustion of previous mal investments based on pumping up the economy from serial crises starting in 2008 that have now culminated in a real estate collapse, restive population, etc but worst of all China has a mercantile economy which depended on the collective western continual growth paradigm – and look where US and EU growth stands at the moment.
In addition China has huge US bond holdings which it seems – like the rest of the world – to now be trying to divest away from but into what? And its purchasing gold as fast as it can. In many ways China and the US are Siamese twins, joined at the economic hip.
That’s the reason it must be extremely careful in walking the line between overtly supporting Russia and being given the same treatment by the US. Its for all those Chinese related reasons as well as the more talked about reasons that Putin is doing the slow dance, trying to advance the Ukraine agenda in tandem with the huge economic transformations that are being wrought at the same time.
Posted by: Saul Goode | Dec 19 2022 1:20 utc | 137
Yeah, sure. They will be marching on Moscow soon, Crimea is first. Didnt you hear Zelensky? Its in their minds already!
Posted by: alek_a | Dec 18 2022 20:10 utc | 100
It’s called Method Acting. All the greats, like Brando or De Niro do it. Positive visualization. It’s in the script for “Idiot Savant of the People”, Season 4.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 19 2022 1:30 utc | 138
Chinese holding of US debt, simple version.
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1119126863
“China used to be the biggest foreign owner of U.S. Treasury securities – but not anymore. Recently, China reduced its holdings of American government debt by more than 9% to less than $1,000,000,000,000. That’s $981 billion, to be precise.”
Posted by: Saul Goode | Dec 19 2022 1:36 utc | 139
You can also hear Macron confirming the fact of growing tensions in the Donbass owing to actions on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: “The situation is very tense. I called Zelensky to calm down and will tell him again…” And then asking Putin “not give in to any provocation in the hours and days to come”.
Macron-Putin phonecall (EN-FR subtitles), February 20th
Posted by: Nomad | Dec 18 2022 22:05 utc | 115
That was a very interesting phone call, obviously edited and leaked from the French side to make their boss look good as a mediator and man of purpose and action. Clearly that is not how it happened in real time, because Macron does not speak Russian and Putin knows little French. So the statement at the end that from Putin that he is in the taking the call at the gym cannot be correct unless Putin takes a translator with him for workouts.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 19 2022 1:58 utc | 140
Posted by: Saul Goode | Dec 19 2022 1:20 utc | 138
So many people think the US quakes because others own so much of its debt. I was also one of those. However, I remembered an old saw by some clever Briton, that said “Owe the bank 100 pounds, big problem. Owe the bank 1 billion pounds. Their big problem “ .It is so true. The US may choose to default on all its loans tomorrow, just like that. What can any creditor do ? Nothing. Will China or Russia or whoever go to war to get their money back ? Unlikely.
The US may have that as their last plan. Default, screw their reserve currency status which will likely be destroyed by then and just have a home economy with minimal trade. It will hurt becoming self-sufficient again , but too bad.
So to conclude, I don’t think China owning US debt is such a disadvantage to the US. They are likely laughing all the way to the bank.
Posted by: Nomad | Dec 18 2022 22:05 utc | 115
On Macron pontificating and lying through his weaselly teeth.
“And then speaking in his own voice “I do not know where your lawyers learned law…” to the effect that in a sovereign country, all initiatives that take into account the interests of separatists are preposterous.”
…and yet the hyenas EU and Nato used that very process to carve out Kosovo and Bosnia Herz from Yugoslavia.
Posted by: Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 21:01 utc | 106
Putin’s ultimatum to Biden. Why not? Isn’t that what the Americans did to Japan and Iraq ( non-nuclear)?
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 19 2022 2:13 utc | 141
reply to 138
As a point of balance, I keep seeing articles about how crazy China has been with real estate and ghost cities – and those are valid concerns. However, what doesn’t get brought is the more than 6 trillion (est.) the US wasted on the War on Terror, including Iraq and Afghanistan. Great nations do insane things.
Reply to 110
This evolution of technology is what frightens and depresses me. Sooner or later, the technology gets so fast and powerful that nuclear war happens – either by accident or deliberate neo con action in a first strike attempt. The scary part is that means the US must be beaten and subjugated to prevent that which they intended to do in the ’50’s to the Soviet Union.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 19 2022 2:24 utc | 142
Gary Heavin writes in the Epoch Times, Nuclear War: Why We Should Be Thinking About It Now. Steven Starr 106
Any attacker who uses EMP weapons over a country with nuclear power plants is worse than stupid. Think of Fukushima multiplied. This would be an extinction level event.
Posted by: BrianB | Dec 19 2022 2:33 utc | 143
@ Saul Goode | Dec 19 2022 1:20 utc | 138 who began with the supposition
”
I would love to think that might be the case but China was too unprepared and still is.
”
You go on to cite real estate market management and demand reduction from US/UK/EU as being significant reasons and I disagree.
China money does not yet have intrinsic value so China let its citizens invest in real estate as a store of value and is birthing/evolving management of that market…not the problem you make of it.
If you follow China development you would know that the US/UK/EU demand in China is relatively small and China is working to develop internal demand which will pale that of the West as time goes on.
@ Saul Goode | Dec 19 2022 1:36 utc | 140 with the (N)PR report of China US Treasury holdings currently….China and Japan have traded the holding lead over the past few years.
Some other barfly reported that China is “offshoring” some of its Treasury holdings to protect from sanctions which may happen before the big crash. I have written here before that I expect China to use its Treasury holdings to pay off IMF/World Bank
debt for X number of countries.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 19 2022 2:35 utc | 144
The monsters directing American(US) policy may relish a nuclear attack on its cities. Better targets could be their hardened haunts, like the Greenbriar Resort near DC among many others, and Ciudad del Este in South America, etc.
Posted by: BDC | Dec 19 2022 2:44 utc | 145
Posted by: Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 21:01 utc | 106
I am told that the speed of a USA sub launched Trident missile is ~mach 18. If true, I fail to see how this is inferior to the newer hypersonic missiles fielded by Russia. If I’m wrong happy to read your comments.
On a more speculative note, I am wondering if some of the “missing” trillions at the Pentagon have been spent on some sort of secret space based missile interception system??
Posted by: Snowleopard | Dec 19 2022 2:48 utc | 146
Snowleopard | Dec 19 2022 2:48 utc | 147
Ballistic missile vs maneuvering missile traveling at similar speeds.
Try catching a ball that is zig zagging through the air vs catching one traveling in a ballistic curve.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 19 2022 2:57 utc | 147
@ Brother Ma | Dec 19 2022 2:13 utc | 142
@ psychohistorian | Dec 19 2022 2:35 utc | 145
Thanks for the courtesy of your replies gentlemen, further discussion really only amounts to trying to change your views, something everyone tries and nobody succeeds at.
One can only hope to find someone with similar views to share a drink with in the corner. 🙂
Posted by: Saul Goode | Dec 19 2022 2:59 utc | 148
You can read the tide of the Donetsk front by the shelling of the city. It’s getting desperate so the Ukrainians are firing while they can. It is a significant problem for Russian forces, that they cannot stop it, but the AFU isn’t doing it out of strength.
Posted by: Lex | Dec 19 2022 3:05 utc | 149
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 18:55 utc | 66
this does not leave me with the impression that NATO has any control over anything.
-Assuming that NATO cares about Ukraines fate and isnt just using it as a hammer against Russian anvil. They dont.
How does this relate to the question of control? You’ve mutated the original point into another discussion entirely.
That’s because it has none. Seriously, NATO has nothing impressive.
Not even an air defense system they can loan to Zelensky that actually works.
-Delusional
How so? Ten months have gone by and they’re still debating whether or not to send PATRIOT systems. In the meantime there’s no air defense!
This is empirical proof of my point.
Between HiMARS and Minuteman missiles there’s a great big gaping black hole.
-Absolutely delusional
What, you think M777, a few toy drones, stingers (more like pingers) and javelines fill that void?
No NATO countries are evacuating their cities, they arent getting bombed daily.
Well … that’s because Russia isn’t attacking any NATO countries to begin with. What’s your game here?
-My game is NATO isnt getting bombed, Russia is.
NATO’s only effective armed force (the AFU) is getting eviscerated.
NATO’s volunteers, masquerading as ‘mercenaries’ are rotting on the battlefield as we speak.
NATO’s weapons are getting fed down the toilet.
NATO’s gas pipelines are getting blown sky high by it’s own allies.
While it gets sold speculative LNG through fictional terminals.
NATO itself is having the economic foundations ripped out from beneath it.
Russia has no need to bomb NATO cities … Yet.
-So there will be a nuclear war and theres no avoiding it if we look at it from your perspective.
Like I said: This is NATO’s choice. If NATO goes for the suicide option, yes. But if NATO acts like it’s usual cowardly self, it will fold and leave Ukraine.
I think the NATO leadership fears death. They will fold.
NATO wont just push to Russian borders, Russia proper will be bombed into ruins.
Not before the entire EU is wiped off the map.
Consider that Russia has the best air defense in the world.
Therefore the best chances of survivability.
And again – you forget that we’re in M.A.D territory now. “Bombing Russia into Ruins” = “wiping the EU off the map”
You really think NATO doesnt have long range weapons?
Now you’re just inserting things into the conversation. Where did I indicate that?
Oh but of course Russia has the wonder S500 that will shoot everything down and Russia cannot be touched, except it is right now
Why mention S500 in particular? Russia has a whole range of conventional weapons NATO has no equivalent for.
, by trash in comparison to whats in store.
What is in store? You may imagine there is something in the NATO store but the truth is NATO has nothing to match what Russia has overall.
You’ve never heard of Zircon, Khinzal, Avanguard, Yars, S400, S300, Kalibr, Iskander, BUK*, TOR*, Bulava, Sarmat … I could go on but you get the picture.
Tell me what NATO has in comparison?
-Russia will be in ruins too, you are just imagining that Russia doesnt take any damage. Which is silly.
Where did I say Russia won’t be harmed? Nowhere. We are in M.A.D territory here and the choices before NATO will be:
“Do we continue provoking Russia and risk total annihilation”?
vs.
“Just concede defeat, write an insurance cheque for Ukraine and live to plot another day.”?
So the question remains: How does the world’s biggest nuclear power lose this war?
-No, it doesnt. Answer was perfectly adequate.
You’re struggling. I’ll help you:
Russia doesn’t lose this war. NATO does. Just as NATO lost in Afghanistan to a bunch of goatherders.
It tucks it’s tail between it’s legs and slinks home leaving tons of investment buried in the mud and frost of Ukraine.
<-I guess they will fight NATO then, and probably lose.
How? NATO has no army. None.
NATO is a candy wrapper around the US Military.
NATO can’t even hold Afghanistan against half-shod goatherders
It’s forces in Iraq were token.
Even Yugoslavia was a largely US effort.
And the Americans are not even going to face Russian forces head on.
And to think they have ambitions of taking on China?
Like I stated: This is … on the cards whether Russia fights or not
-So theyre fucked no matter what, great.
See previous point.
-So its letting NATO dicatate terms, get first strikes, grind them via proxy. Amazing strategy.
You’re delusional:
– What terms are NATO dictating? None!
– What first strikes are NATO conducting? None!
– It is NATO’s proxy forces getting ground down – the AFU casualty count is higher (If you doubt this, Vd. Leyen admitted it in public)
Come now, be serious. Are you talking “toys” or “people”? It’s not polite to change subjects like that …
-NATO has more of both. Didnt change anything?
You said “toys” in your original statement, then you slipped in people (deflection?). One of these things is not like the other.
As for toys, I’m still waiting for you to list exactly what significant ‘toys’ NATO has give it the destructive advantage over those Russia has.
The proof is in the pudding:
After 10 months what is on the battlefield right now? From NATO, nothing more than pea-shooters.
Old Soviet weapons are carrying the day for the AFU.
There was some noise about HiMARS for a time, now they’ve faded into irrelevance.
Even new German wunderwaffen like IRIS-T are essentially prototypes being trialled in real combat for the first time. A pretty dull showing.
PATRIOT? Not likely
What else after that? Nothing. NATO is all tapped out.
-Now youre pulling arguments that wouldnt hold a drop of water. If they didnt fight for territory they wouldnt have held any referendums, so thats
busted.
You’re getting confused. The combat style of the Russian army is mobile. The referendums have nothing to do with how the Russians position their military:
– They are not fighting for territory, they’re fighting to destroy the AFU.
– Territory is an outcome of destroying the AFU in a particular region, not the point of the fight.
No Cigar for You. Try again.
Sure did a bang up job in Mariupol, right? Going well in Bakhmut? Marynka?
-So thats it, thats the limit of Russian might in 10 months?
You’ve been asleep all this time if you think that.
I recommend you take a look at the map and note the big chunk of missing Ukraine – the juiciest part – that is never going back.
– The AFU are getting slaughtered though, and their casualties are an order of magnitude more than the Russians.
– You dont know that, i dont know that. You can start counting confirmed kills from videos going around open source other than that you dont know shit, but i dont think you would like the ratio.
Like I said, Vd. Leyen let it slip. But if you want to argue that she was lying, here’s a simple calculation that proves AFU casualties are higher:
Using empirical coupled with minimum available facts indicate that a 100 000 AFU casualty number is actually very plausible. I put forward this sequence of logic:
1. Two equally matched forces on the battlefield will inflict casualties on each other in the ratio 1:1 (“all factors being equal”)
2. Therefore the force that is stronger will inflict the higher casualty number on the other: The relation is linear (“all factors being equal”)
3. The metric of “strength” in this case translates to “artillery power”.
4. Therefore the side with the greater artillery power will inflict the highest casualties (“all factors being equal”)
5. Since the RF have greater artillery power on the battlefield than the AFU by all reasonable accounts and sources it is certain the RF is inflicting the higher casualty rate
6. By all accounts and sources the RF artillery power can be estimated as ranging from *at minimum* 10x the AFU artillery power – NOTE, we actually include cruise missile power under our umbrella definition of “artillery”. We can vet this estimate with some simple judgement:
a) Is the AFU artillery power equal to the RF ? NO!
b) Is it greater? NO!
c) Is it half that of the RF? NO!
d) Is it much less than the RF? YES!
A survey of available internet sources puts the Russian artillery power at *at least AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE* ahead of the AFU, which is quite reasonable considering
a) RF is the second biggest weapons manufacturer globally
b) The RF is the primary inheritor of the USSR’s weapons stocks.
So 10:1 is QUITE a reasonable estimate.
7) Therefore the artillery power ratio of RF:AFU 10:1 translates reasonably to the casualty ratio of 10:1 AFU:RF (“all factors being equal”)
8) The RF casualties (kia/neutralised) have been *said* to be at around 10 000. Applying the ratio 10:1 this yields 100 000 AFU casualties.
At this point we introduce a modifying factor by examining the qualifier “all factors being equal”: The fact is that all factors are not equal, the RF has significant advantages over the AFU:
a) More sophisticated arms and military capabilities (Space, Naval, EW domain, Mechanised (tank) forces, Energy supply, logistics, nuclear forces etc …)
b) Better financial resources (RF doesn’t survive on handouts and has a reasonably functional economy, compared to Ukraine)
c) The RF actually has support within sectors of the Ukrainian population which translates to military force. The same claim is not true for the AFU within Russia.
d) A chokehold over the energy infrastructure (gas, electricity) of Ukraine.
9) Therefore the military power ratio of 10:1 I have proposed can be weighted further in favour of the RF. How much more is not necessary to guess, but it’s clear that it must be substantial.
10) Conclusions:
a) The casualty ratio AFU:RF is reasonably estimated at *minimum* of 10:1 but is likely far higher if including the weighting factors.
b) If we accept RF casualties of 10K, the AFU is reasonably at 100K.
c) If we propose any estimate of RF casualty, the ratio must be applied and the AFU casualty will rise accordingly. For example, if it pleases one to believe the RF casualties at 100K, we must accept that the AFU casualty rate is at 1 Million …
-Dominating battlefield shouldnt include getting bogged down in Donbas for 10 months.
The Russians are not “bogged down” in Donbas. The Donbas is EXACTLY where they want to be and where the AFU are being fed into the meatgrinder.
However, using your logic, we can say of the AFU: “Dominating the battlefield should not include getting bogged down in 20% of your territory for 10 months while never even stepping once over the border of Russia proper to take the fight to the enemy”.
If anyone’s “bogged down” it’s the AFU. They’re bogged down getting the Russians out.
Plus, not a day goes by without lamentation from the US or EU about their declining ammunition stocks and inability to keep up with the weapons demands of the AFU.
-Its good you trust what western media says, they get to play you. I dont take a word they say seriously.
Then conversely, where do you get the belief that NATO has sufficient weapons? Have you traded one delusion for another?
-No, not right. Thats the narrative but both sides are suffering, Russia cant afford to suffer as much as NATO does.
In almost every instance of Russia against previous incarnations of NATO, the Russians have demonstrated a greater capacity to suffer.
Why should it be different this time round?
-They are already all enthusiastic about impotent Russia who cant even beat Ukraine. Thats the word on the street in the west, Russia is losing, theyre shit, and we would wipe the floor with them. You go change their minds.
That’s just a testament to how well the brainwashing has worked.
As for “word on the street”, you seem to have missed the thousands in the streets protesting against the EU policies of provoking Russia. That’s despite the entire Western Media Machine working 24×7 to hide the alternative narrative.
Why so selective?
-Thats when EU population will be primed for war, economy in the dirt, life sucks, plunder Russia.
Ahh, “Lebensraum”.
The last time the Germans tried that it ended with Russians hoisting their flag over the Reichstag.
The last time the French tried that it ended with Russians at the gates of Paris.
The last time the Japanese tried that it ended at Khalkin Gol, with the Kurils in Russian hands.
You can connect the dots yourself on this one …
… is nothing like Iraq.
Nothing like it at all.
-True, its worse for Russians than it was for Americans.
No it’s not. Ukraine is organised under ONE administrative body of control (NATO).
There are not a dozen competing factions and states pulling wires in several different directions.
Russia has ONE opponent to defeat instead of a dogs breakfast of 4 or 5.
The situation is qualitatively different for Russia in terms of managing chaos.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 3:05 utc | 150
St. Petersburg comrades often ask me while in person: “Well, how are the people of Donetsk, how is their mood?”.
You need to see face to face.
Only the big picture is seen from a distance. While I am here, it is very difficult for me to briefly and concisely describe the local people, so I will do it through some particulars.
Here is an example of the attitude towards the enemy. In my opinion, a very revealing moment. Through his idea of enemies, a person really partially describes himself.
In Russian officialdom, the enemy is often presented as a disorganized and cowardly rabble, but this picture is very different from the one given by my colleagues.
So, how my comrades describe the opponent.
1. Well equipped and staffed.
2. Well trained. Almost always, the opposing team fumbles with new toys at the beginning, but over time they get involved and apply successfully.
3. Does not differ in any special cowardice and alarmism. “The same Slavs are against us.”
4. Cunning and resourceful in means. Does not shun a variety of methods of war.
5. Capable of all kinds of military operations: defense, assault, UAV operation, chain attacks, digging complex trenches, terror and sabotage, dressing up in civilian clothes, recruiting civilians, etc.
At the same time, the enemy does not cause any sympathy. Taking enemy soldiers prisoner at the grassroots level is frowned upon.
In my opinion, this approach to the opponent is more productive, that is, consider him strong and dangerous, but be ready to fight to the end. Rather than consider him weak and stupid, but after the first serious setbacks, begin to shed tears and think about a truce.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25441
Posted by: Down South | Dec 19 2022 3:25 utc | 151
📌 Indeed, there are big problems in the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the wounded and killed. Rybar with the Military Chronicle write everything correctly.
From myself, I’ll just add a few more confirming facts from personal experience:
▪️recently, my source from Konstantinovka reported about the forced re-equipment of the local school #5 into a hospital due to a lack of places in two hospitals in the city;
▪️ some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not even have vehicles for evacuating the wounded from the front;
▪️captured Ukrainian servicemen have repeatedly told me about the absence of even an ordinary orderly in their units, while no one else has adequate first aid skills. Often the principle “here’s a sanitary bag for you, now you’re a doctor” applies.
The prisoners also spoke about the “special attitude towards mercenaries” mentioned by their colleagues. They say they are people of the first class, personnel units – of the second, mobilized – of the third. So the provision of normal medical care to foreigners and driving a bolt on their own is not surprising.
▪️From communication with the commanders of our units, I know that the corpses of their comrades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are often not taken from the battlefield, even if ours give them the green light for this. There is no corpse – there are no problems with its storage and transportation.
Now many citizens of Ukraine still doubt the disregard of the Armed Forces of Ukraine towards their soldiers and the critical situation with the wounded and killed. But optimism is just a lack of information.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25444
Posted by: Down South | Dec 19 2022 3:27 utc | 152
Bad news for the AFU: Russia has created the Borschevik complex to detect Starlink at a distance of up to 10 kilometers.
Let us explain how this threatens the AFU, which used Starlink to communicate quickly between units on the attack/defense line.
There will now be a risk of detection and strikes on these very geo-positions. You, there, don’t throw Starlink away.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25460
Posted by: Down South | Dec 19 2022 3:30 utc | 153
On TASS this evening:
“Zelensky is deeply concerned over itchy feet of people wishing to leave their cold and dark apartments.”
On abandoning Ukrainian corpses en masse without attending them upon the killing fields, however, isn’t a topic for his concern.
Looking ahead to the near future, Zelensky’s only hope for personal survival, his single conceivable destination? The USA.
Give us your tired and hungry but not this war criminal.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Dec 19 2022 3:30 utc | 154
Brian B @144
The EMP effect particularly on those nuclear power plants and their cooling systems. Hadn’t even considered that one. It is not unlikely that Russian scientists have warned their warriors about that devastating prospect for the human race.
After what the U$$A did to North Korea some 70 years ago (almost unbelievable bomb devastation of virtually every cowsty cottage in the country) could be an impetus for them to use such a weapon in a long delayed vengeance attack. We can pretty much count on the Russians to be coolheaded and rational. As for Kim Jung Un, I’m not so certain…
Thanks for bringing up this critical issue.
Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 19 2022 3:48 utc | 155
Kisinger wants to haggle. He offers Russia a little less than what they would require and would allow them to negotiate for the balance – what they now hold. But it was never about territorial gain.
And then he would offer them promises. But what are those promises worth? Diplomacy is based on some level of trust. But US has blown up that bridge. And meanwhile the US has restarted the war machine and that thing cant be stopped once started – not until one side has been beaten to bloody pulp.
A fuse has been lit. Circumstances make it impossible to extinguish. We will have to see it through.
Posted by: jared | Dec 19 2022 3:50 utc | 156
The US is a circling shark. It has caught the scent of blood. It is controlled be instinct to get what it wants, what it needs. Logic is not part of the game, only searching for weakness, edging closer in tighter circle.
Only a sharp rap on nose in the early stages will break the primordial transe – serious cost is key, the prospect of large financial loss by disruption of economy.
Posted by: jared | Dec 19 2022 4:01 utc | 157
Interesting plot twist, the NYT reported that the US tried to talk Ukraine out of assassinating Gerasimov, which may or may not be true given the source.
What is odd is TASS featuring the story.
https://tass.com/world/1552103
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 19 2022 4:01 utc | 158
@ Opport Knocks | Dec 19 2022 4:01 utc | 159
rt has had an article up on it all today as well..
Posted by: james | Dec 19 2022 4:02 utc | 159
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 17-18 Dec 2022⚡️
♦️#Belgorod Region:
▪️ Russian air defences intercepted aerial targets near #Belgorod, Shrapnel damaged residential buildings, four civilians injured.
▪️ One of the shells hit a poultry farm in the #Belgorod district, killing one man and injuring eight others.
♦️#Starobelsk Direction:
▪️ In the #Kupyansk area there is no significant change in the situation. Positional fighting continues at the #Liman 1st – #Olshana line.
▪️ In the #Liman sector there is fighting near #Makeyevka.
▪️ Both sides are engaged in artillery duels along the line of contact. The RF Armed Forces have hit enemy concentrations in #Vishnevoye, #Kupyansk, #Tabaevka and #Kotlyarovka.
♦️#Soledar Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Soledar sector, the Ukrainian command has moved units of foreign mercenaries to #Soledar to deter the Russian offensive.
▪️ In the #Bakhmut (#Artyomovsk) sector, Wagner PMC assault troops are fighting in #Bakhmut, #Opytnoye and on the outskirts of #Kleshcheyevka.
▪️ Units of the 28th Mechanized Brigade’s 3rd Battalion and the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade of the AFU have unsuccessfully tried to attack Russian positions in #Ozaryanovka. The militants were pushed back.
▪️ In the #Toretsk (#Dzerzhinsk) sector, the enemy is forming assault groups near Nyu-York (#Novgorodskoye).
♦️#Lugansk People’s Republic:
▪️ AFU fired HIMARS rockets at civilian targets in #Alchevsk and #Shchastia, three civilians killed, five wounded.
♦️#Donetsk Direction (MAP):
▪️ Motorized rifle units of the RF Armed Forces continue to advance in the center of #Maryinka and break through sections of enemy defence on Druzhba Avenue.
▪️ In the south, AFU assault units pushede Russian forces out of their positions in the fields southeast of #Pobeda.
▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled populated areas of the #Donetsk agglomeration. Residential buildings and also a hospital in the center of Donetsk have been hit. One person was killed and four were injured.
♦️#Zaporozhye Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Orekhov sector, units of the 65th AFU Mechanized Brigde attacked Russian positions near #Nesteryanka on Saturday. Russian forces repulsed the enemy attack, forcing the militants to retreat to their initial positions under mortar fire.
▪️ In the #Pologi area, reconnaissance teams of the 79th Battalion of the 102nd AFU Territorial Defence Brigade monitor the movements of Russian troops near the settlements of #Shirokoye, #Marfopol and #Stepanovka with the help of drones.
♦️#Kherson Direction on Southern Front (MAP):
▪️ Enemy drones search for positions and logistics facilities of the RF Armed Forces along the #Dnipro coastline from Nizhny Rogachik to Novaya Kakhovka.
▪️ Russian forces worked on the sites of AFU concentrations in #Stepanovka, #Kazatskoye, #Tyaginka and the outskirts of #Kherson.
In turn, Ukrainian militants shelled civilian facilities in Novaya Kakhovka, and part of the urban district settlements were left without power supply.
Posted by: Down South | Dec 19 2022 4:05 utc | 160
@ Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
Posted by: klik2 | Dec 18 2022 16:37 utc | 37
Pearls before swine.
…but thank you for sparing the rest of us our time repeating what regulars have been saying for a year.
Thanks from me to. The pearl still shines , though.
Posted by: Anne B | Dec 19 2022 4:07 utc | 161
Posted by: Anne B | Dec 19 2022 4:07 utc | 162
In my life experience people referring to others as swine should take a long look in the mirror.
Posted by: dust | Dec 19 2022 4:25 utc | 162
@ArchBungle and @experienced
Sun Tzu in his ‘Art of War’ says
“In War
Victory should be swift
If victory is slow,
Men tire, morale sags.
Sieges exhaust strength,
Protracted campaigns
Strain the public treasury.’
Posted by: KenKam | Dec 19 2022 4:25 utc | 163
@1 @experienced,
Unfortunately you are very right. Had Russia resorted to what you suggest, the American empire of lies would have howled a lot, imposed its usual financial sanctions, and, after realising that those sanctions no longer work as intended, backed off from Russian redlines. The empire would have been intact, and rushed on other targets, but Russian interests would have been well protected. Now that Putin’s redlines are receding one after another like the hairline of a middle aged man, the empire is emboldened a lot. It won’t stop till it destroys Russia. Now Putin has no other choice but to destroy the entire empire. And it may end up in a nuclear death for all of us.
Posted by: Old Brown Fool | Dec 19 2022 4:26 utc | 164
Posted by: KenKam | Dec 19 2022 4:25 utc | 164
“In War
Victory should be swift
And I agree wholeheartedly.
The question is:
“What is slow and what is fast?”
It seems the sole definition of “slow” is being put forward by a generation of ADHD, short-attention-span millenials.
I do not respect their perception of “slow”.
For me, to consume 20% of the land of a modern military state (backed by the ‘might’ of NATO ) in 10 months is blindingly fast.
This means in 20 months, almost 50% of Ukraine will be under Russian control.
This means in 30 months, almost 60% of Ukraine will be under Russian control.
At that point only the dregs will remain. The Azovis can keep it …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 4:32 utc | 165
Posted by: dust | Dec 19 2022 4:25 utc | 163
6 Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you. – Matthew#7:6
That Jesus dude better get hisself a mirror …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 4:36 utc | 166
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 4:36 utc | 167
Know exactly where that comes from. But the people thinking they are casting “pearls” may want to re-read what else that “Jesus dude” said.
Posted by: dust | Dec 19 2022 4:41 utc | 167
Opport Knocks | Dec 19 2022 4:01 utc | 159
Gerasimov.
Was reported killed in the opening act of the rapid advance.
Russian generals and senior staff seemed to be dying daily….
Russia never confirmed Gerasimov’s death, and then, some months later, there he was sitting in a MoD meeting with Putin… seemingly in good health and with all limbs….
I think there’d been an attempt to take him out… which, imho, would have been supported if not directed by the USNATO.
Now that they are denying it…. Imho, means they think they need to “make nice” with top Russian military command….
Innocent, hand on heart, “twas the ugly ukies, we’d never target a fellow officer and a gentleman” ….. yeah. Right.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 19 2022 4:44 utc | 168
jared | Dec 19 2022 3:50 utc | 157
They should shut down Kissinger’s supply of adrenochrome and let nature take its course.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 19 2022 4:48 utc | 169
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 18 2022 16:24 utc | 35
I was one of those asking that question. People living there? Why? If so, they have had 10 months to leave. So anything that happens is on their own heads. All Russia needs to do is issue a warning with leaflets or some other way and say, “ all civilians out within three days because we are going to start shooting in anger” . Simple .
No,I don’t think that will lose supporters of Russia in the ROW. Maybe some bleeding -hearts in the West , but they are too powerless to change things anyway, so who cares. I include myself in the latter.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 19 2022 4:58 utc | 170
Geez, don’t we all get tired of discussing “war scenarios” between nations, when it’s all about “market share”, commerce and business? If we could simply control the overly greedy business types, who make this world overly competitive, when it doesn’t have to be, we’d all be better off.
But, don’t hold yer’ breath til’ that happens…
Posted by: vetinLA | Dec 19 2022 5:02 utc | 171
Posted by: dust | Dec 19 2022 4:25 utc | 163
You must’ve been born in the last hour.
Posted by: Anne B | Dec 19 2022 5:07 utc | 172
English Outsider | Dec 18 2022 14:41 utc | 19
Col Lang’ blog has changed; I agree that it was very educational, at times beautiful. And last but not least, thanks to comments there I came to read EO and “b” and the crowd in MoA. I miss Habakkuk and some other posters there.
Posted by: fanto | Dec 19 2022 5:09 utc | 173
I’m beginning to think this blog needs an FAQ.
b … any chance we can get an FAQ?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 5:42 utc | 174
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 19 2022 4:44 utc | 170
There are at least two Gerasimovs , and one was by all accounts killed. We even saw a photo of him in the media. I also thought they were talking about slab-faced Gerasimov of the Shoigu Pair , until I saw the media saying it was the other junior -ranked general .
Frankly, I believe Russia should also be targetting Ukro officers too. It is common in war, and I doubt Russia would lose support in the RoW because of it.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 19 2022 5:43 utc | 175
b … any chance we can get an FAQ?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 5:42 utc | 176
That’s not a FAQ 🙂
My guess is that b has enough to do.
Posted by: waynorinorway | Dec 19 2022 5:57 utc | 176
b … any chance we can get an FAQ?
Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 5:42 utc | 176
But, FIRST…. names to appear at top of post….
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 19 2022 6:06 utc | 177
Brother Ma | Dec 19 2022 5:43 utc | 177
Two Gerasimovs…. There’s no end to Russian sneakiness is there.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 19 2022 6:13 utc | 178
New York City and Washington will be reduced to smoldering rubble”
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 21:46 utc | 110
Strangely, even though I am a citizen of the USA, more and more, I am willing to accept the loss of those two dens of iniquity if it means the rest of the world can get on with a better life.
Posted by: T.D. | Dec 19 2022 6:35 utc | 179
re :T.D. | Dec 19 2022 6:35 utc | 182
The Federal Government has become a tyrannical source of power that is not only unresponsive to US citizens, but poses an active threat towards them in a variety of ways.
I am all for secession at this point, if that is remotely possible. But smouldering ruins may be a more likely future reality.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 19 2022 6:40 utc | 180
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 19 2022 6:06 utc | 179
But, FIRST…. names to appear at top of post….
No can do. waynorinnorway says b is “too busy”.
(probably goofing off, is what I think …)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 6:41 utc | 181
But, FIRST…. names to appear at top of post….
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 19 2022 6:06 utc | 179
Tying the post numbers to the date/time stamp OR eliminating the
post numbers altogether is more important.
People using just the post numbers without the time stamp to reference
other comments is the single most glaring problem of this blog.
Back in the day when there were less than 100 comments it was not
a problem but now with 3, 4, or more pages of comments it is.
Posted by: waynorinorway | Dec 19 2022 7:09 utc | 182
@psychohistorian | Dec 19 2022 0:36 utc | 134
Part of that transition away from a Banker’s War world is to eliminate big chunks of the equipment and personnel supporting the Jackboot approach to global politics…..and then crash the world economies so that the new development/redevelopment is public focused and not military jackboot for elite.
I may be a dreamer but I am not the only one….
He is gone, but his dream lives on because he wasn’t the only one.
I think and hope that something like you describe is happening. It is clear that Ukraine is where the US military jackboot is being ground down.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 19 2022 7:10 utc | 183
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 19 2022 6:41 utc | 184
(probably goofing off, is what I think …)
Yeah Arch, just being cute. But I do think b is in fact really busy what with the
explosion in comments and the increase in troll traffic in the past year or so.
From time to time there are suggestions like yours and Melaleuca’s.
They have merit for sure but we in the bar have responsibility too to help out by not
feeding trolls, keeping personal attacks down, using time stamps, writing in a style
that is not cryptic or hard to follow, not over-posting just to hear ourselves talk,
keeping comments on topic – and short, etc.
You have made a number of fairly long but excellent posts in the past few months. Maybe
you could put together a list of FAQs and answers that could be used as a standard reference.
I’m serious. Would that be a possibility for you or anyone?
(fwiw, I do read – and appreciate – your stuff when it’s not a reply to a troll type)
Posted by: waynorinorway | Dec 19 2022 7:15 utc | 184
@Brother Ma | Dec 19 2022 5:43 utc | 177
—
It is a slippery slope from targeting a General of the Army to targeting Diplomats.
Posted by: too scents | Dec 19 2022 9:06 utc | 185
BrianB @ 144
ELE is correct. Few understand this or possibly they refuse to understand this. That commercial reactors in meltdown are as or more dangerous than weapons is a thought most will not process.
Many ways to get same result without EMP. In Ukraine attrition of personnel could have same result. Come to think of it personnel are a problem everywhere.
Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 19 2022 9:20 utc | 186
Girkin knows whats up.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1604425636671627271
But the “credible” Kremlin gang will probably project that hes an armchair analyst who doesnt understand the grand strategy like they do. Worlds best air defense by the way as one was boasting, cant stop a drone strike on their nuclear bombers. But dont worry just drink the kool kvas, Russia is winning with no losses, elite Ukrainian enemy army got completely destroyed in first month, no it was actually in Kharkov, no no wait it was in Kherson counter offensives, nah im just joking the real elite guys are in Bakhmut this time for sure and theyre definitely all getting destroyed. After this Ukraine has nothing! Until it does, again.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 19 2022 9:27 utc | 187
Posted by: gengivone | Dec 18 2022 20:01 utc | 97
There are only two Kalashnikov plants in Russia. The former IZHMASH plant and the former IZHMEKH plant, both located in Izhevsk. Both are capable of manufacturing thousands of firearms daily. You’re projecting the West’s and Ukraine’s problems onto Russia.
Posted by: Peter Williams | Dec 19 2022 9:37 utc | 188
Brother Ma @ 177
I also thought they were talking about slab-faced Gerasimov of the Shoigu Pair.
LOL, I agree he has the most confidence killing sad sack face possible for a general or for that matter a guy running a podunk post office, I’d be sure he’d lose my package. Whatever his qualifications and they might be great at least move him to the backrooms away from the cameras.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 19 2022 9:55 utc | 189
The thread started with “experienced” and it pretty much ended with “experienced”…
It’s trolls all the way down…
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 19 2022 10:00 utc | 190
in an attempt to rewrite history the German government still will not condemn the Iraq invasion openly as an illegal war of aggression (just as it never ceases to emphasize this in the case of Russia of course), as an inquiry by MP Sevim Dagdelen has now shown. German Foreign Office is not sure what the war was: war of aggression or violation of international law. The absurdity of this is another highpoint of corruption and hypocricy by Berlin.
According to Berliner Zeitung today:
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/wirtschaft-verantwortung/bundesregierung-will-nicht-sagen-ob-irak-krieg-ein-angriffskrieg-war-li.299085
Posted by: AG | Dec 19 2022 10:04 utc | 191
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25460
Posted by: Down South | Dec 19 2022 3:30 utc | 154
Starlink TERMINALS, not “Starlink”, like in that text. I told you Russia didn’t jam Starlink satellites, it was simply Elon trying to get Pentagon money but he failed, he still gives them for free to his nazi friends. And to Iranian “protesters” too. Russia is building a mobile radar for ground terminals, useful for other friendly countries, not much for Ukr war.
Posted by: rk | Dec 19 2022 10:07 utc | 192
LightYearsFromHome | Dec 19 2022 9:55 utc | 193
I suspect if you were facing him in battle you would lose your package. Gerasimov Has never professed to be a post master. His job is to destroy.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 19 2022 10:13 utc | 193
Posted by: Peter Williams | Dec 19 2022 9:37 utc | 192
Is there a source for either your or gengivone’s claims? About the current production capacity of Kalashnikov Group/Izhmash? I found absolutely zero online.
Posted by: Unnamed | Dec 19 2022 10:34 utc | 194
There is this article in TASS, but it only says that production increased by 40%, and not from what baseline. https://tass.com/defense/1515329
Posted by: Unnamed | Dec 19 2022 10:38 utc | 195
Posted by: rk | Dec 19 2022 10:07 utc | 196
There’s no “permanent solutions” against enemy satellites and the data they can relay, other than get rid of the satellites. And the most practical way is have a maneuver capable vessel in orbit to keep the space above certain regions clean, so maybe it could be a garbage/metal collector or simply have some kind of a particle beam ray to try enemy satellites.
I don’t think “jamming” ground terminals works, there will always be too many ground terminals and not all of them can be jammed.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 19 2022 10:39 utc | 196
Starlink
Posted by: rk | Dec 19 2022 10:07 utc | 196
—
Starlink communications has been publicly compromised.
DEF CON 30 – Lennert Wouters – A Black-Box Security Evaluation of SpaceX Starlink User Terminal ==> https://youtu.be/myKs04lfuy8?t=1040
Technology is fragile.
Posted by: too scents | Dec 19 2022 10:41 utc | 197
Posted by: Nomad | Dec 18 2022 22:05 utc | 115
Thanks for that link, Macron comes across as a spoiled child, a perfect idiot with the commanding tone of the bank teller that refuses John Doe a mortgage, that’s why Putin with his calm but devastating ways tell the oedipal young boy to hurry up, gotta go play hockey. What an idiot this Macron guy, just like yesterday trying to rub glory with his soccer team to stand for a long time shaking hands with a bunch of sweaty sporting guys, the perfect loser’s face. Pathetic, and that’s the brightest bulb in Europe, guess we have to fasten our belts.
Posted by: Paco | Dec 19 2022 10:47 utc | 198
Regarding the discussion on Kalashnikov above, I was able to find this press release from Rostec dated 6th of February 2015: https://rostec.ru/en/news/4515464/
“Despite the economic sanctions of 2014, Concern Kalashnikov has shown a net profit for the first time in seven years and has almost doubled production of small arms, with an increase of up to 120,000 units,” noted the General Director of the Concern Kalashnikov Aleksey Krivoruchko. “In 2014, the group’s production of the Concern amounted to 3.4 billion rubles, demonstrating significant growth (+58%) in comparison to 2013; this was primarily due to the manufacture of products for the civilian market. In 2015, we will continue to increase the volume of production and we have implemented a growth plan to increase future growth levels to 20-25%.”
If I interpret this correctly, the annual production of small arms increased in 2014 to 240,000 units. While that doesn’t strike me as a very high number, it works out to much more than 200 units per day, and I guess it’s possible that this is significantly lower than the maximum output and also that the capacity has increased further since then.
Posted by: Unnamed | Dec 19 2022 10:52 utc | 199
Steven Starr | Dec 18 2022 21:01 utc | 106
Washington DC is approx 108 miles from the coast giving it about 26-28 seconds for 3m-22 (tsircon) in lo-lo with an airburst warhead.
Actually Washington DC has been in ‘crap your pants’ timing range of a sub launched cruise since the early 80’s. Even your boring old p-270 moskit could hit it with about 125kT in 1 minute and 42 seconds ‘ish’ and there’s nothing the US could do about it even then.
The problem people have is that they get their understanding of missiles from hollywood and tom cruise when they really should have been paying attention to sir isaac newton and Serge Korolev.
Similar story goes for radar and ‘stealth’. No one ever asks they the maths papers were written in Cyrillic.
Here: You say you’re doing work on RF induction…You might wanna take a closer look at Kret.
Posted by: S.O. | Dec 19 2022 11:00 utc | 200