Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1
Basically, it appears, Putin believed that Ukraine would not fight. So Putin went with what had worked for the Soviet Union in the past. Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Afghanistan in 1979. Seize an airport at the capital, rush forces across the border to link up with them. At the same time pour forces across various points of the border into the interior. The idea being, that, when people get over the initial shock, they would see Russian forces everywhere and the few who did start to fight would give it up.
Given how hard it has been to knock out the Ukrainians energy infrastructure (dozen or so large scale strikes every week or every other week or so) it is not likely that the Russians could have done it in a few days. However, the shock effect of such a campaign early on, instead after a couple of months of war might have weighted differently.
But I agree with your overall point, if this had ended after a month or so, eight months later (now, in effect) a lot of countries, with the unfortunate Ukrainian incident in the rear view mirror, would be back to business as usual with Russia.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 18 2022 13:46 utc | 3

Does anyone have any news on how the price cap on Russian oil is going? MSM are being extremely quiet about this.

Posted by: B. Wildered | Dec 18 2022 13:50 utc | 5

Slavyangrad is reporting that the Polish ruling party is making extensive plans to conquer western Ukraine – that they have support in Kiev, that they are building up paramilitaries and plan for referendums in the territories. Sounds good.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 13:55 utc | 7

The lack of ammunition for artillery and MLRS forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to focus on the development of light, fast combat groups that move in jeeps and armored vehicles, such as Kozak, Warta and other similar Western specimens.
It is realizable only if you have more infantry and you do not look at losses. And believe me, there are a lot of them when using lightly armored vehicles.
The strategy works with a lightning attack supported by ultra-precise artillery, which hits a given square, and at this moment the “light cavalry” swoops down on the opponent from the flanks, and tanks and infantry fighting vehicles / armored personnel carriers go in the forehead.
This tactic worked in the Kharkov case, since the Russians had little “manpower”, and cunning officials reported that there were 1,000 soldiers, but in reality there were at most two hundred of them (someone wrote off money well).
In the Kherson case, this tactic worked a little, they managed to push the Russians back, but the losses were huge. Then Kherson was “exchanged” according to an agreement that neither side recognizes.
Now the Russians have resolved the issue with the infantry, and again the factor of artillery and MLRS began to play a huge role, as it was in the summer. Even then, we pointed out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a shortage of ammunition, which would only worsen and become one of the biggest problems.
Now the breakthrough of the Russians is being held back by sending a huge amount of infantry to the Bakhmut meat grinder.
According to our information, Bakhmut was ordered to hold until NG, and after that they will begin to retreat. This is a political decision, not a strategic one. It is important for Zelensky to end the year on a victorious note.
I wonder what other combined attacks and defenses we will see in this war, which takes place on the Ukrainian training ground, where the Russian Federation and the West compete, and the Ukrainians are just a tool in the game.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14343

Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 14:01 utc | 9

reply to 10
Retreat means little long term because the meat grinder would just move somewhere else. They just don’t have enough equipment and that means futile counterattacks. Tanks in particular are missing.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 14:13 utc | 11

Posted by: B. Wildered | Dec 18 2022 13:50 utc | 5
Given the price of oil is below the cap, it has had little effect. It’s the general drop in the price of oil which has had an effect of dropping Russian oil revenue a few percent. So not much to say on the part of the MSM.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-urals-oil-averaged-5749bbl-past-month-below-price-cap-2022-12-16/

Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 18 2022 14:18 utc | 13

Retreat means little long term because the meat grinder would just move somewhere else. They just don’t have enough equipment and that means futile counterattacks. Tanks in particular are missing.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 14:13 utc | 11
I understand, the tactics being used are “interesting”, but it is still a road to nowhere.
They ought to give up, stop the bloodshed. It will end in Ukraine being divided up like a pie.

Posted by: bemildred | Dec 18 2022 14:20 utc | 15

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 14:15 utc | 12
The new Khazaria theory has been going around for a while, it started in the 90s when exiled Khazars saw the opportunity to use their wealth and get back their ancestral homeland. Princes of Kiev destroyed their empire and scattered them all over the world, theyve been looking for a way back since. Basically the plan is to manufacture a conflict where Slavs living in territories of old Khazaria fight each other to exhaustion so they can buy up the depopulated land and drive their new gas and oil pipelines from ME through Israel back home. Why would USA be interested in such a project? Well guess what these people have in common and this is just a tip of the icesbergsteinman.
Janet Yellin, Secretary Treasury
Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State
Robert Klain, Chief of Staff
David Cohen, Deputy Director CIA
Merrick Garland, Attorney General
Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary Homeland Security
Avril Haines, Director National Intelligence
Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State
Victoria Nuland, Secretary State Political Affairs
Eric Lander, Office of Science Technology
Jeffry Zeints, Covid Guru
Rachel Levine, Assistant Health Secretary
Cass Sunstein, Senior Counselor at the Department of Homeland Security, and his wife, Samantha Power, Head of USAID
Dana Stroul, Pentagon Senior Policy Official on the Middle East
Rochelle P. Walensky, CDC Director
Anne Neuberger, Director of Cybersecurity at NSA
Chanan Weissman, Director of Technology at National Security Council
Polly Trottenberg, Deputy Secretary of Transportation
Jessica Rosenworce,l Acting Chairwoman FCC
Jennifer Klein, Co-Chair of the Gender Policy Council
Jared Bernstein, Member of Council of Economic Advisers
David Kessler, Chief Science Officer of COVID Response
Stephanie Pollack, Deputy Administrator Federal Highway Administration
Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission

Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 14:36 utc | 17

(Eric Newhill, https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-what-its-military-leadership-says.html#comments)
Eric, if you’re there, I read your criticism of Turcopolier yesterday. But it was great site, unique in fact, and was in no sense a supporter of Washington’s foreign policy.
It gave a voice, and a powerful one, to Larry Johnson and Patrick Armstrong, two of the best analysts going and themselves no supporters of that foreign policy. “b” himself wrote in from time to time. I recollect the Colonel paying tribute to “b”‘s military analysis and from my reading of MOA I don’t reckon “b” to be one of the neocons!
The policy of allowing all points of view to be put forward on the site is still the policy today. I read this comment submitted there just now:-
“Bill, try to look at it from the Russian perspective, simply to understand what they are after, since this clearly isn’t about conquering Ukraine ‘Shock and Awe’ style like NATO has patented. There is no doubt in my mind that they truly believe that elections held before 2014 revealed a little over 50 % of the population supported the presidential candidate leaning towards economic and cultural ties with Russia, and that those people did not feel represented by the regime installed by Victoria Nuland, as revealed in her ‘Fuck the-EU’-telephone call.
“And when Porochenko moved on his own people in the Donbas, and lost, the Russians honestly thought that this Minsk agreement could save the peace. But both Porochenko and Merkel recently revealed that there never was any inclination to honour that agreement, since it was only meant to built the second largest military force in Europe, after Russia, on Ukrainian soil. With the intent to take the Donbas, and conquer Crimea. So, when the shooting started on February 17, from Ukraine towards the Donbas, as reported by European observers, Russia faced this stark choice to let the people in the Donbas rot, or step up to the plate. One week later they went in.
“Though both critics and supporters of Russia maintain they miscalculated, expecting Zelensky to settle for a negotiated way out if only the Russians would threaten Kiev and Kharkov, I think it worked. But the UK and the US insisted that Russia was just bluffing, and that they would run out of ammo and soldiers in no time at all. So, with NATO’s help, it would be a great victory. I maintain that though Russia was disappointed in Germany and France, mainly, they never expected the US and UK, or my own country, Poland and the Baltic states to give up, so they came prepared, turning this thing into an artillery duel, with ample production of ammunition, for which NATO was ill prepared.
“These people you take issue with saw this, or came to see it ‘plain and simple’ as they watched what happened, and contrary to what you are suggesting, they feel strongly that this Ukraine/NATO combi will lose this war. Russia, by western estimates, is firing close to 40.000 rounds of artillery grenades, ‘grinding’ their opponents, while being economical with terrain, in order to cut their own losses. If that is your conclusion, helping Ukraine does not (no longer) amount to sending them more weapons and prolonging the war, with enormous loss of life, and incredible destruction since Russia decided to target the electrical grid, while mobilising another 300.000 troops, of which Zalushny says that this mobilisation was successful, contrary to what ‘sources’ claim. To preserve a Ukrainian nation, not buried under billions of debt, and with able bodied men left, the intelligent thing to do would be to stop the war, and allow the people to decide on which side of the fence they would like to live through setting up referenda.”
One wouldn’t see comments like that appearing on many anti-Russian sites and it’s a credit to Colonel Lang that it appeared on his. As for TTG, also, it’s fair to say, anti-Russian, his pithy summary of what happened at the start of the war is one I quote often to those who don’t know what was happening in the Donbass in those early days:-
“The Maidan Revolution occurred under conditions of anarchy and continued corruption. Under the cover of that anarchy, the right wing elements, the neo-nazis, white supremacists, anti-semitics and ultra nationalists gained ascendancy. They formed the right wing militias that threatened the lives of those in the east.
“The rebels had no choice but to fight for their lives. And they did. And it got ugly.”
That gets to the heart of why I believe we in the West were wrong to support such people. To hell with all the geopolitics and grand theories. We should not be backing neo-Nazis and that’s it and all about it.
So yes, it’s a pity we pilgrims are now scattered to the four winds but it was a great site. I learned a great deal from it and regret, rather than resent, that the Colonel’s sense of honour has now taken him in the other direction.
Good to see you surfacing again, by the way. I noticed you letting rip on Larry Johnson’s site and thought, at least there’s one “Trumpist” in the States on the same wavelength as me.

Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 18 2022 14:41 utc | 19

English Outsider: Trying to look at this from a Russian perspective will get the lynch mobs surrounding one’s house. Yes, we should not be backing neo-Nazis, full stop. But the US foreign policy psychos chose that route as the most direct way to make Ukraine ‘ours.’ Now the narrative is that Nazis in Ukraine is just a fabulation created by Putin’s propagandists. Who you gonna believe, they say, me or your lying eyes? Ukraine is a mirror of the US, both run by war criminals.

Posted by: Mike R | Dec 18 2022 15:03 utc | 21

One thing that I think happened at the beginning of the SMO, came at the moment that the Russians found out that Nazis (neo or real) were not only part of Ukraine, but integrated in most of the western Governments.
I think they had a form of culture shock to find out that WWII had been a waste of time and lives. That the expected anti-nazi sentiment was not only missing, but literally pro-nazi had become part of EU and US policy.
Cognitive dissonance – but it would have taken some time for a reorientation of their inner certitudes – from that of a “good” west, to the reality we can now see.
I am no better, in fact if my father, now dead but who fought in WWII said “why did I bother”, it would be understandable.
***
So now does “denazfication” include the present leaders and movers of the west? I don’t know, but I estimate that we are getting to the point where it will be one of the only solutions left.

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 18 2022 15:20 utc | 23

Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1

If Russia decapitated Ukraine day one kalibrating Elensky, all his goons and anyone associated with them cutting diplomacy to zero. … We would be in healing process right now, western idiots would still be recovering from the shock they wouldnt even have gone the sanctions route if Ukraine fell in couple weeks.

– The EU and the economy of the Anglo American empire would still be intact.
– Africa, Asia and South America would still be under the illusion they’re dealing with rational, agreement-capable actors in the West.
– The global economy would as firmly in the grip of the Anglo American empire as ever, China’s rise notwithstanding.
– Russians would still be trapped in their West-infatuated stupor, still dreaming they might one-day be treated like “white people”.
Instead, Putin is deconstructing the Empire of Lies brick by brick, forcing every state in the world to pick their sides or suffer the consequences, shaking the very foundations of the Empire.
Changing the Rules of the Game.
None of that would have been possible with a “quick kill” of the Ukrainian power structure.
Instead, the Empire would have just continued as it always had to apply it’s strategy of “strangulation”, as it did with the Soviet Union.
Putin understands that it’s this “strategy of strangulation” that is most dangerous to Russia. While he allows the West to play by it’s own rules Russia will always be ten steps behind leading eventually to defeat.
There’s no way out but to switch the rules of the game, keep the game going and ensure that it’s the West playing catch up with Russia and not the other way around.
Anything else would be postponing the inevitable.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25

@1
The bigger battle may be to force the US out of Europe. If so, a long, slow economic strangulation followed by an unseemly scramble by Poland/Romania to take parts of Western Ukraine makes sense.

Posted by: VtObserver | Dec 18 2022 15:49 utc | 27

so the leader of every European nation knows who blew up NS2, right?
so they are, 100% of them, fully on board with the “let’s fight WW3 with F35’s” agenda, right?
none of them are non-participants, are they? (excepting other Slavic states…but are they telling the world what NATO is up to? no.)

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Dec 18 2022 15:52 utc | 29

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
No bullshit, i understand that point of view and wish i could share the optimism. But in view of what i think i know, i cant subscribe to that plan working at all unless end goal is total war against NATO. Risk of this conflict spreading grows every day, escalation train seems to have no breaks. Can Russia actually win that war? Maybe, at what cost? We cannot ignore that NATO has some very impressive toys and Ukraine is holding Russia back with a fraction of their second tier hardware that cant even reach Russian backlines. Poles and Baltics cant wait to get in there, they are just as fanatical as Ukrainians and wont be an easy foe to defeat. How many armies will Russia have to defeat before it even gets to Americans? How badly will they be extended by that point? These are all serious questions with some uncomfortable answers. I think that a war with NATO could have been avoided if Russia pacified Ukraine with overwhelming force, with their political establishment dead there would be no negotiations for weapons deliveries or any diplomacy going on at all. There could be some dude from Donbas sitting in Elenskys chair right now. Of course theres alot of assuming going on here but hey were having fun.

Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 16:04 utc | 31

Stonebird | Dec 18 2022 15:20 utc | 23
______
Great insights concluding with
“So now does “denazfication” include the present leaders and movers of the west? I don’t know, but I estimate that we are getting to the point where it will be one of the only solutions left.”
We can be sure that Russia’s goals now include more than those cards they’ve turned face-up on the table.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 16:13 utc | 33

Eighthman @ 7

Slavyangrad is reporting that the Polish ruling party is making extensive plans to conquer western Ukraine – that they have support in Kiev, that they are building up paramilitaries and plan for referendums in the territories. Sounds good.

How is making an aggressive, rabidly Russophobic, quasi-fascist USA quisling Poland bigger, richer, and more militarized that is now sharing a border with Russia good? Of course if it all goes to hell, they bite off more than they can chew, ruin relations with the EU and find themselves immersed in a hyper-klepocracy, hyper-indebted, bankrupt gangster war state that would be a comeuppance, but Poland taking Western Ukraine is in no way good for Russia. It could however have more stable static mass than a rump Ukraine, but flip a coin where that goes. For Russia it would be a fait accompli, I doubt the can prevent Poland from taking what they can’t take.
BTW a while back someone wondered why Russia doesn’t just MOAB Artemivsk into submission as after 10 months of static fighting it must be little more than a WW1 wasteland of foxholes and trenches. I wondered this too, well it seems not too different from Mariupol though smaller, there is still a city there with people living in it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqmlwkY0cr0

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 18 2022 16:24 utc | 35

@ Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
Pearls before swine.
…but thank you for sparing the rest of us our time repeating what regulars have been saying for a year.

Posted by: klik2 | Dec 18 2022 16:37 utc | 37

Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
______
Thanks for laying it out so clearly in reply to [in]experienced. His/her scenario, a decapitation strike on Kiev by Russia, would in fact be a most welcome event for US Neocons.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 16:39 utc | 39

Basically, it appears, Putin believed that Ukraine would not fight.[…]
I just cannot believe that Putin, one man, is screwing this up top to bottom. My occams razor points to general incompetence or a faction in Kremlin sabotaging the effort.[…]
For now the bear in concentrating on taking the Donbas.[…]
Russia would be better served drafting Putin to command a front line battalion[…]
….

Fyodor Lukyanov: One year ago, Russia gave the West a last chance to prevent a full-blown conflict – what went wrong?

It’s been a year since a Russian document outlining proposals (or demands, if you prefer) for long-term guarantees on European security was delivered to NATO and the US. This was the starting point of the major politico-military crisis that defines the global situation today.
Was the Russian ultimatum (and that is how it was formulated) designed to be rejected, or did it envisage a path to negotiations?
President Vladimir Putin probably reasoned along the following lines: after so many years of ignoring our wishes and convictions, let’s give it one last chance. Let’s put forward the maximum set of demands, everything that has been said before, but outline them in one place and in a concentrated form, and see what happens.
If they realize that this time that it’s extremely serious, and with that in mind, decide on a real discussion, we are ready. However, if they start to waste time again, then that’s it. Let’s cut to the chase.
If the response from the West was not satisfactory, the military operation in Ukraine would be the next step. There was apparently no chance of avoiding it by then. After all, the logic behind the need for the offensive was outlined in Putin’s big article in the summer of 2021. That is, the security demands were made when the internal readiness for action was already in place.
The scale of the consequences leads many to return to the question: Was what happened inevitable?[…]
I have to say that the consultations that took place in January 2022 showed that the US was ready for some concessions on specific issues of military security. To a greater extent than they had indicated before the demands were made. However, this amounted to very little relative to the overall picture. Most importantly, NATO and the Americans categorically refused to discuss the main political issue: a formal rejection of NATO expansion.[…]
After one year, how should we assess the outcome for our country, based literally on what was said in the document? The main outcome is that the politico-military situation has changed radically. Consequently, Russia’s dissatisfaction with the previous state of affairs has been partially sated. As it was, it will no longer be.[…]

Bakhmut nor Dombass nor even Ukraine is the endgame. Just the opening.

The opening is the first phase of a chess game. It stops when the forces of both opponents are mobilized and the kings are safe.

One year ago, Russia was’nt safe nor its forces (and allies) were mobilized (in the open).
In 2007, Russia was in no position to play the game. In 2014, in no position to go beyond the pale of Crimea.
2021 President Vladimir Putin probably reasoned along the following lines: after so many years of ignoring our wishes and convictions…
To nearly copy-past ArchBungle
Putin understands {since 2007 or sooner} that it’s this “strategy of strangulation” that is most dangerous to Russia. While he allows the West to play by it’s own rules Russia will always be ten steps behind leading eventually to defeat.

Posted by: La Bastille | Dec 18 2022 16:42 utc | 41

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 16:39 utc | 39
Thats a missed shot Doug, because he didnt lay out anything i didnt already read countless times in these comments these past months. I have heard this point of view ad nauseum and its just as false this time as last time. You will just have to accept that we have some disagreements here.

Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 16:48 utc | 43

Posted by: La Bastille | Dec 18 2022 16:42 utc | 41
While he allows the West to play by it’s own rules Russia will always be ten steps behind leading eventually to defeat.
By the way, I learned that from my dear departed mum as a boy when she first taught me the rudiments of schoolyard brawling. Bless her soul.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 16:53 utc | 45

@ experienced | Dec 18 2022 14:36 utc | 17
—
What have you got against Effective Altruism?
Rabbit meat hole ==> https://www.reddit.com/r/SneerClub/comments/zgbzsx/the_gang_gets_a_castle/

Posted by: too scents | Dec 18 2022 17:01 utc | 47

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 16:41 utc | 40
That bus left the station a long time ago. It is total war against NATO, but at Russia’s pace, not NATO’s pace.
-Theres an agreement and disagreement here, the ship has sailed yes. Russia isnt controlling anything at this point theyre just reacting, NATO is still fighting using a proxy with no real NATO toys. No NATO countries are evacuating their cities, they arent getting bombed daily.
This was the situation even before 2014, when the West instigated Georgia against the Russians and Saakashvilli ended up eating his tie.
Some would argue it’s been going that way since the West started funding Chechen terrorists in Caucasus … and there has been no brakes since.
-Force puts an end to all of that.
How does the biggest nuclear power in the world “lose” this war?
What are the consequences of lying down and accepting Western domination?
-Same way every army loses, it runs out of resources. Unless you suggest Russia will just nuke the world if they cannot win a conventional war, ok then what are we even talking about? No one here and certainly not me suggested lying down and accepting Western domination so i cant speak to that.
There is no cost bigger than annihilation and dismemberment.
And that cost was on the cards whether Russia fights or not …
-Annihilation and dismemberment is a very real possibility if they fight NATO.
We cannot ignore that NATO has some very impressive toys and
We cannot ignore that Russia has even more impressive toys
-NATO just has more. Wahts the population of Russia like 150mil?
No they’re not. Lay off the crack, please.
-Yes they are, not only holding back but also retaking territory. Unless youve been asleep past 5 months.
They’re filling up the cemeteries in Poland as we speak.
I don’t have much respect for the military prowess of the Poles or Baltics.
The Russians have a long tradition of military victory and innovation within modern history.
The Poles and Balts, not so much …
-Ok…
Only the AFU and their steadily declining stocks of volunteers and mercenaries. After that, Europe has no armies worth mentioning.
Do you really think Lithuanian, Latvian, Slovenian, French, Italian or German armies are going to make a dent against the Russian army?
Puh-leez!
-Way to underestimate the enemy who outnumbers you in every single way.
Why are you assuming they’ll extend themselves?
You think they want to occupy all of Europe ?
-They will have to unless they think theres enough Russians to defend forever.
No. None of them are serious questions in my opinion. These sound like the fears of a paranoid mind.
-Nothing to add, this is just salty nonsense.
The result would have been Iraq: A civil war along factional lines with the EU and US infiltrating weapons, insurgents and special forces into the chaos. The kind of environment the Americans love to operate in …
-So the result we have now? Ok
Maintaining the leadership maintains the illusion of order while the state is being dismantled.
It simplifies the job of taking apart Ukraine without a lot of unnecessary chaos and unpredictability the RF would have to deal with.
The Russians avoided making the same mistakes as the Americans in Iraq.
-We shall see about that, from where i sit mistakes is all that Russia has been making since march.
There could be some dude from Donbas sitting in Elenskys chair right now.
Or a dude from the Azov battalion …
-Russians install Azov fighters into leadership? I didnt know that.

Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 17:09 utc | 49

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎬 Clearing of the Fortified Area of the AFU on the southern outskirts of #Maryinka⚡️
Tankers of Southern Military District @tankist4 shared with us footage of fighting in #Maryinka. The video shows Ukrainian positions being cleared in the urban development on the southern outskirts. By settling in multi-storey buildings, the AFU turned every inch of the city into one big stronghold.
Advancement in #Maryinka is complicated by the presence of civilians, who are not allowed out of the settlement and are used as human shields by Ukrainian militants.
Despite this, the RF Armed Forces personnel broke through the AFU positions in the centre of #Maryinka (see 👉 Report), cutting into the defensive lines on Druzhba Avenue and starting to mop up the area along Shakhtorskaya Street.
Coordinates: 47.9358, 37.5034
🔻 However, the AFU understands the threat posed by the loss of #Maryinka. Strongpoints are being set up within the city limits. The forces of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade have been deployed to the forward positions, and the 36th Separate Marines Brigade is in the second echelon.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces have pushed the RF Armed Forces southwards, creating a bridgehead to further advance and flank the Russian grouping in #Maryinka or east of #Novomikhailovka.
🩸Vladlen Tatarsky explains the loss of position by unhelpful rotations of units to different parts of the front, resulting in a loss of well-established cooperation and understanding between fighters.
The still-existing problem of tasking according to the lesson plan, rather than the real needs at the front, is deeply entrenched in the army.
Instead of providing the combat cohesion required at the front between the troops and consequently increasing the likelihood of a successful defence/offensive, some commanders are committing acts unacceptable to the warring units.
The complete elimination of pointless bureaucracy, the establishment of clear interaction between Russian servicemen and the removal of detached military commanders are the minimum measures that can lead to positive changes in the RF Armed Forces.

https://t.me/sitreports/2269
Vladlen Tatarsky- referred to above:

The morning for me personally began with bad news. The enemy managed to dislodge our troops from the positions for which we fought all autumn. Of course, success is so-so. They have already changed hands three times, but still …
It’s not my business, of course, but this happens almost always when some strange rotations occur. It seems that somewhere in the high headquarters they just play backgammon and lose brigades and divisions to each other. They just settled down and got used to it, got acquainted with the enemy, and then the unit was transferred to another sector of the front. Immediately there are explosions on mines and the loss of some positions.
Yesterday, already late in the evening, they told us about one of our offensive attempts on one of the sectors of the front. All according to the classics of 1942. I believe that if the general arranged Rzhev two or three times at the minimum wage, he should be changed, and not let him do it the tenth and eleventh time. It is necessary to do the “rotation of a fool for a fool.”

https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/18147

Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 17:32 utc | 51

Why are Russian attacks on energy infrastructure so ineffective?
Are they imprecise?
Is it possible to use bigger missile, maybe ICBM, filed with TNT instead of nuclear bomb?
The attacks are accomplishing exactly what the Russians want done.
They are exhausting the spares inventory which maintains the electric grid, and they are exhausting the Ukrainian AAM inventory too.
Their mode encourages the Ukies to take their spares out of those hidey holes, put them in known places, where the next attack can destoy them.
This mode also encourages the Ukie civilian population to emigrate to Poland, etal…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Dec 18 2022 17:34 utc | 53

I think this war is much more then conflict between Russia and The West. It is a conflict between two philosophies. The West adores the power of the individual, the power of individual will. They think that individual will can defeat biology, physics, history…
“You can be everything”, that is promised by protestant modern preachers.
This is a typical psychopathic vision, ego centered world.
On the other hand, Russia represents the old, organic world. It is just a national state defending its core values, defending its essence. In the Russian world the public, or common imperative is more important then the individual will.
But The West in now in contradictions. The defenders of “freedom” are inducing censorship. Is that not predictable? What is the main base for such an exploration of “individual will”. It is control, control of symbolic over organic, over own body. Is that not what we find at universities and big techno corporations where dead soul employees usually suffer pretending to be happy.

Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:56 utc | 55

@Arch Bungle,
many thanks for your continuous efforts to debunk the obvious “Russia is losing and it is Putin’s fault” crowd, who can be very tiring…I very much appreciate your posts!

Posted by: Anthony | Dec 18 2022 18:11 utc | 57

Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 17:09 utc | 49

Russia isnt controlling anything at this point theyre just reacting,

I think you’ve been asleep for the past few months.
When I see:
– Russia systematically shutting down the Ukrainian power grid at a timing and cadence of their choosing,
– kalibr and iskander missiles taking out factories and facilities in Ukraine while Ukrainian air defense fails so badly it poses more of a hazard to Ukrainians than Russian missiles,
– the West having to bargain with Putin on whether grain can leave Odessa are not,
– Russia holding referendums within the territory it takes
– Occasionally retreating but under no direct attack and to only take up positions of it’s own designation
– Ukrainian forces bombing actual nuclear power plants
– Ukrainian forces trying to sabotage the kerch bridge to no actual effect
– etc…
this does not leave me with the impression that NATO has any control over anything.

NATO is still fighting using a proxy with no real NATO toys.

That’s because it has none. Seriously, NATO has nothing impressive.
Not even an air defense system they can loan to Zelensky that actually works.
Between HiMARS and Minuteman missiles there’s a great big gaping black hole.

No NATO countries are evacuating their cities, they arent getting bombed daily.

Well … that’s because Russia isn’t attacking any NATO countries to begin with. What’s your game here?

-Force puts an end to all of that.

Huh?

-Same way every army loses, it runs out of resources.

Not every army loses by running out of resources – in fact few do these days.
But even if this is a risk, there’s a long way between Russia running out of resources and the EU turning into a third world hellhole.
As for Russia resorting to nuclear weapons:
Let’s assume it does indeed run out of conventional battlefield weapons, and somehow the NATO does not (requires extreme suspension of rational thought here). Let’s assume then that NATO pushes the limit to Russia’s borders. Of course yes there’s going to be a nuclear war.
But before we ever get to that point Europe will lie in ruins as it did in WW2, except this time there’ll be no Marshal plan.
There’ll be hordes of middle eastern and African refugees willing to rebuild New Europe though …
So the question remains: How does the world’s biggest nuclear power lose this war?

then what are we even talking about? No one here and certainly not me suggested lying down and accepting Western domination so i cant speak to that.

That’s essentially what you’re suggesting by excluding the option of fighting NATO. You seem to have missed the fact that it’s NATO’s stated intention to destroy Russia.
By “not fighting NATO” you can only be suggesting bending the knee to it – since no middle ground exists.

-Annihilation and dismemberment is a very real possibility if they fight NATO.

Like I stated: This is … on the cards whether Russia fights or not
To explicate further: There is no avoiding a war with NATO, it is inevitable. The only choice Russia has is when the war will begin and on whose terms

We cannot ignore that Russia has even more impressive toys
-NATO just has more. Wahts the population of Russia like 150mil?

Come now, be serious. Are you talking “toys” or “people”? It’s not polite to change subjects like that …

-Yes they are, not only holding back but also retaking territory. Unless youve been asleep past 5 months.

– If they were really “holding the Russians back” they would not have to “retake” any territory at all.
– Since the Russians are not fighting a war for territory, one wonders what the AFU is retaking to begin with. Where are they holding the Russians “back from”?
Sure did a bang up job in Mariupol, right? Going well in Bakhmut? Marynka?
– The AFU are getting slaughtered though, and their casualties are an order of magnitude more than the Russians.
So, the AFU is stuck on second tier equipment (admitted by you), taking higher casualties (lots of information to support this) and not “holding back” the Russians from anywhere in particular (a look at the map confirms the Russians are still sitting on roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory – exclude the Azov sea)
Besides, having 50%+ of Ukrainian electrical grid in a constant state of collapse and air defense systems that don’t work is not a reasonable notion of “holding back” anyone.

-Way to underestimate the enemy who outnumbers you in every single way.

“outnumbered” in every single way? You must not be following the news much:
– The Russians “outnumber” NATO forces in artillery and missile forces. Established fact.
– The Russians are outnumbered in terms of human bodies … and yet they’re dominating the battlefield. That means the NATO forces masquerading as AFU must be pretty shit.
Plus, not a day goes by without lamentation from the US or EU about their declining ammunition stocks and inability to keep up with the weapons demands of the AFU.

-They will have to unless they think theres enough Russians to defend forever.

Why not just stop in Ukraine and grind up whoever is dumb enough to cross the border?
I mean, that’s effectively what they’re doing now, right?
Besides, you think those EU armies are going to be all that enthusiastic about “dying for Ukraine” while their families are freezing and starving back home and their industries are steadily being shipped out to the US and China?
Perhaps, but they’ll be an army of paupers because the EU is collapsing as we speak.

-So the result we have now? Ok

… is nothing like Iraq.
Nothing like it at all.

-We shall see about that, from where i sit mistakes is all that Russia has been making since march.

Everyone’s a perfectionist these days.

-Russians install Azov fighters into leadership? I didnt know that.

Come now. Be serious.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:20 utc | 59

Posted by: Anthony | Dec 18 2022 18:11 utc | 57
A Sisyphean task to be sure!

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:30 utc | 61

there are several nuke reactors in the ukraine
if you flatline the complete energy grid all at once,
the plants become , shall we say unstable.
this is a unique energy war.
how to make the reactors safe and shut down, and still remove power from the system.
when the reactors are in a complete cooldown phase…
then we see what happens….
Silver

Posted by: silver | Dec 18 2022 18:34 utc | 63

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58

I agree with “experienced” in his post #1 today. Had Russia gone in with force at the outset and obtained victory within 7-10 days, it would have delivered the message that Russia is indeed a world power,

But that message has already been delivered! The entire global south, Asia, Africa and the Middle East is in Russia’s corner particularly because of Russia’s approach.
These are civilizations that appreciate a cautious, patient and enduring approach (martial “hookup culture” hasn’t yet hit them) to resistance. They already see Russia as a “World Power”.
As for Europe and the US/UK + hangers-on and colonies, NOTHING Russia does will ever convince them that it’s a “world power”. I mean, if being a nuclear power, plus being able to blow off thousands of sanctions over 10 months as if it was seasonal flu doesn’t impress the West, NOTHING will.

and the 100,000 or more deaths by Ukrainians, as well as some significant number of Russians, would have been avoided.

How sure are you that Blitzkrieg, against which the AFU has been preparing for 8 years with NATO’s help, would have resulted in fewer casualties?

I think a quick victory for Russia would have bolstered respect for Russia around the world.

Russia’s respect outside of the West is at an all time high.
Within the West, hatred of Russia can never be resolved.

I don’t believe Putin or anyone else could have predicted all the twists and turns that this has taken.

And yet you, ‘experienced’, rk, zanon, blissex, biswapriya and the like are absolutely CONVINCED they know EXACTLY what Putin should have done – because they somehow have the superpowers to predict ALL the twists and turns.

You wrote: “In fact, removing Russia from the UNSC would be suicide … The U.S. must see certain advantages in this, and I assume we think we can use this in some way to dissuade countries from trading with them. The U.S. goal appears to be to make Russia an outcast country, perhaps as a way of accomplishing regime change.

Obviously the US is taking the “spray and pray” approach to destroying Russia.
It’s called “throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks”.
The problem with the US is that it does a lot of things without consideration of the outcome.
Most of these actions generate the opposite desired effect.
If you think ejecting Russia from the UNSC is some 50D chess move, just remember this comes from the same club of people who think the oil price cap was a bright idea.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:52 utc | 65

experienced = stupid superficial bullshit… isn’t worth a response..
@ English Outsider | Dec 18 2022 14:41 utc | 19
it was a good site… unfortunately all good things come to an end… it is no longer a good site.. fortunately moa continues…
peter au left a good link on the topic of nazis and ukraine and by extension the west… worth a look if anyone is wondering about the veracity of this…
Nazi collaborator monuments in Ukraine

Posted by: james | Dec 18 2022 18:55 utc | 67

I think this war is much more then conflict between Russia and The West. It is a conflict between two philosophies. The West adores the power of the individual, the power of individual will. They think that individual will can defeat biology, physics, history…
“You can be everything”, that is promised by protestant modern preachers.
This is a typical psychopathic vision, ego centered world.
Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:56 utc | 55

Not sure about that, it has been my observation that getting Russians to voluntarily co-operate is like herding cats. They will only do so if threatened, hence the focus of Putin’s internal messages.
Here in Canada, the Russian diaspora that I have met are individuals, there is no collective political and economic force. The Ukrainian diaspora on the other hand…

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 18 2022 19:01 utc | 69

Looks like USA has decided where to make their move, namely Serbia / Kosovo. This thing was set up already in early August but got postponed till now.
https://www.rt.com/news/568467-kfor-nato-exercise-kosovo/

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:07 utc | 71

re:OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58 et al etc.
“should’ve , could’ve, would’ve.” is tedious and pathetic.
100% agree with you Anthony | Dec 18 2022 18:11 utc | 57

Posted by: HOBO 3 | Dec 18 2022 19:07 utc | 73

@70 russia is not winning, neither is ukraine. Looks like the US, again, is coming up roses in yet another Eurasian war.
Was just reading on iran russia trade ties, growing now, but man the mistrust between the two is illogical. Surely they could understand this, but Russia only looks to sell Iran out whenever possible.
Now China and Russia are being cagey. Sure trade is strong but only because China holds the high cards and Russia has no choice.
Whatever complaints about American culture one can have, you must be impressed at their strategic power mongering, and mind fucking.
Like it’s so obvious the US keeps pitting groups in a classic divide and conquer strategy…but it keeps working?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 19:10 utc | 75

Posted by: Rob | Dec 18 2022 19:13 utc | 76
Last time Ukies sent two fighters (an SU-24 and Mig-29) from Mirgorod. They made a low speed approach towards Belgorod, made a quick dash to 3000-5000m to launch their anti radiation missiles, then they went back to low altitude in order to fly back to Mirgorod. Russian AWACS directed S-300 missiles which dropped the fighters near the airfield from a distance of 215km.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:17 utc | 77

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:17 utc | 77
low speed = low altitude.
Also, the Pantsir point defense systems can shoot down the AGM-88 missiles and there have been wrecks on the ground showing it.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:19 utc | 79

“We have returned to the world of Galileo vs the Vatican. Scientific dissidents are again silenced and ostracised for their opinions”
from https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2022/12/galileo-vs-the-vatican/
Is this event taught in all schools?
If so, how did the lesson disappear after geaduation”? Was it mis-taught?
If not, who or what decided it was bot part of “education”?
Education, from its original purpose, means “to lead out”. Is that not helpful? Who or what would be afraid of it?

Posted by: chu teh | Dec 18 2022 19:28 utc | 81

“..Here in Canada, the Russian diaspora that I have met are individuals, there is no collective political and economic force. The Ukrainian diaspora on the other hand…” Opport Knocks@69
They are quite different animals-most of the Russian exiles one meets in Canada are on the make, many of them ‘on the lam’.
The Ukrainians, for the most part, are highly organised by the descendants of the OUN/Waffen SS welcomed here by successive post war governments. Not only are they ‘taking refuge’ from Russia but they are very much at the mercy of the Ukrainian organisations directing them.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 18 2022 19:30 utc | 83

@ Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 19:10 utc | 75
Now China and Russia are being cagey. Sure, trade is strong but only because China holds the high cards and Russia has no choice.
Well, one can argue with that. Russia also has a choice as they have something nobody has at good prices and in abundance. Talking about natural resources, also technological, Russians are far more needed by Chinese than it is the other way around to the certain point. And they do have a common enemy anyway, so it is not all black and white in this relation.
Like it’s so obvious the US keeps pitting groups in a classic divide and conquer strategy…but it keeps working?
There is an Arabic/African saying:
“A pot goes to a well until broken.”
We witness the ‘breaking of a pot’, and the well is still going to be there for some time.
Russia and China made some wrong moves and a too late decisions in the last 20 years, but USA, UK, and EU earned Ph.D. in making the bad decisions and bad moves in less than 10 years.
And while at it, they took their own population to a despair and poverty.
I do not see Russians or Chinese suffering at the level of millions of imprisoned, homeless, hungry and poor with no health insurance in the USA.

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 18 2022 19:35 utc | 85

100,000 Ukrainians KIA?
A Spanish blogger has analyzed the reports on Ukrainian dead.

Ukraine 2022 loss reports: 100,000 dead

The most reliable estimates are 100,000 dead. This number consists of 60,000 published obituaries and some 38,000 missing in action.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 19:36 utc | 87

In addition to Belgorod, 4 waves of strikes on Donetsk today. A hospital was hit, one pacient died, others injured. Another day of great strategy work from general Baldie.

Posted by: rk | Dec 18 2022 19:47 utc | 89

Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 18:55 utc | 66
Too long for continued interest, too confused for analysis, too prejudiced for belief.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Dec 18 2022 19:53 utc | 91

“when asked about Kiev’s plans for Crimea. “When it starts, you will definitely hear about it,” he told TF1, adding that he personally believes “the reconquest of Crimea has started in people’s heads, and that’s very important.”
One more proof this war is about land, ukrainian conquest, and that ukrainians want it.

Posted by: Vikichka | Dec 18 2022 19:54 utc | 93

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 19:36 utc | 87
Also the map in this post shows that Kiev City , Kherson Oblast and Chernigov had no data. Kherson was overrun quickly at the start of the war so few men would have been conscripted there but Kiev City had just under 3 million people and Chernigov had just under a million – both these areas were not occupied and therefore conscription could take place

Posted by: Aslangeo | Dec 18 2022 19:57 utc | 95

Rob | Dec 18 2022 19:13 utc | 76
They claim the missiles were intercepted and that falling parts were responsible for deaths of people and destruction in Belgorod region. Ukr keeps receiving airplanes, they have enough available and more will arrive, so such strikes will continue because they also still have many airports. For some unknown reason cars, trains and airports are working in Ukr, there’s not even a little fuel shortage. Anyone knows Abramovich’s email? Maybe he can explain.

Posted by: rk | Dec 18 2022 20:07 utc | 97

Posted by: gengivone | Dec 18 2022 20:01 utc | 97
Yeah, sure. They will be marching on Moscow soon, Crimea is first. Didnt you hear Zelensky? Its in their minds already!

Posted by: alek_a | Dec 18 2022 20:10 utc | 99