Ukraine Open Thread 2022-229
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on December 18, 2022 at 13:01 UTC | Permalink
next page »Amerika passes trillion dollar budget for death merchants and 0 for us on Main Street. The best govt. money can buy. Go Russia
Posted by: jo6pac | Dec 18 2022 13:26 utc | 2
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1
Basically, it appears, Putin believed that Ukraine would not fight. So Putin went with what had worked for the Soviet Union in the past. Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Afghanistan in 1979. Seize an airport at the capital, rush forces across the border to link up with them. At the same time pour forces across various points of the border into the interior. The idea being, that, when people get over the initial shock, they would see Russian forces everywhere and the few who did start to fight would give it up.
Given how hard it has been to knock out the Ukrainians energy infrastructure (dozen or so large scale strikes every week or every other week or so) it is not likely that the Russians could have done it in a few days. However, the shock effect of such a campaign early on, instead after a couple of months of war might have weighted differently.
But I agree with your overall point, if this had ended after a month or so, eight months later (now, in effect) a lot of countries, with the unfortunate Ukrainian incident in the rear view mirror, would be back to business as usual with Russia.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 18 2022 13:46 utc | 3
The Ukrainian army once again used American AGM-88 HARM missiles during today's attack on the Belgorod region.The photo posted by #notes_veterans channel clearly shows the BSU-59/B marking, which is typical for the movable body stabiliser of the American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile.
Earlier, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already used these missiles to attack the Belgorod region in October.According to the latest information from local Ukrainian residents, Ukrainian Air Force fighters with American AGM-88 HARM missiles once again took off from the Mirgorod air base in the Poltava region, which is located just 150 kilometres from the border with the Belgorod region.
Earlier, analysts have repeatedly reported that Ukrainian carriers of HARMs work from this airbase, in particular during the previous strike on the Belgorod region and during the Ukrainian offensive on Kherson.
After several attempts to strike at this closely located airfield, the Russian Armed Forces began to ignore it, apparently considering that the job was done. However, immediately after that, the Ukrainian Air Force continued to use Mirgorod airbase to deliver its strikes on Russian territory.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25414
Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 13:49 utc | 4
Does anyone have any news on how the price cap on Russian oil is going? MSM are being extremely quiet about this.
Posted by: B. Wildered | Dec 18 2022 13:50 utc | 5
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡@Rybar: Consequences of RF Strikes on Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure⚡️Two days after the massive 👉 fire attack on 16 Dec, the effectiveness of Russian strikes can be assessed.
The aim was to cut off the large cities of #Kiev, #Kharkov, #Odessa, #Dnepropetrovsk and #Zaporozhye from power supply.
▪️ #Kharkov and Poltava: TEC-5, the Zalyutino 330kV PS and TEC-2 Eskhar were hit.
➖ CHPP-5 was effectively shut down.
➖ All autotransformers at the Zalyutino PS were destroyed and high-voltage equipment was damaged.
➖ The 110 kV switchgear at TETs-2 was hit.
➖ The power supply was restored by the following day. The remaining unscathed CHPP-3, generating about 86 MW, cannot supply all of Kharkov with electricity. It is likely that power supply is via the switchyard of the Zmievskaya TPP.
To prevent this scenario, the Kremenchuk 330kV and Mirgorod 330kV PSs were likely hit, causing blackouts in the Poltava region. But the damage seems to be non-critical and electricity transit through the Poltava 330kV PS was restored by the morning.▪️ #Kiev and #Zhytomyr: missiles hit CHPP-5, CHPP-6 and the Lesnaya 330kV PS
➖ Electricity was restored in part of the districts (exception Brovary). Indirectly, this indicates that CHPP-6 is out of service.
Despite the preservation of generation from the #Kiev HPP, the situation could not be rectified - probably due to earlier strikes on the 110kV Vyshgorod PS.
➖ The strike on the Lesnaya 330kV PS near Korostenya interrupted electricity transit from the Rivne NPP to Kiev via the 330kV switchyard of the #Chernobyl NPP.▪️ #Dnepropetrovsk: repeated strikes on the Prydniprovska TPP. The Dneprovska TPP in Dneprodzerzhynsk (Kamenskoye) and the Pavlogradska 330kV PS are presumed to have been hit.
Light in Dnepropetrovsk region has not yet been restored. The power system of #Dnepropetrovsk itself has been badly damaged as a result of previous strikes.▪️ #Zaporozhye: Dnepr HPP hit
Despite the strikes on Machine Hall 1 and the 330kV switchyard, the city's power supply has not been severely affected. Apparently, it is still possible to transmit power through the Zaporozhye 750kV PS from the South Ukraine NPP.▪️ #Odessa: impacts on PSs in city and region
The consequences have been partially mitigated. Although electric transport in the city is not working, the Christmas tree has already been triumphantly lit in Odessa.▪️ #KrivoyRog: probably strikes at the Kirovskaya 330kV substation.
The situation is complicated because of the Krivoy Rog TPP: if it is running, it is far from full capacity. Electricity supply in the city has not yet been fully restored.▪️ In other regions, power supply is being restored, but with limitations and emergency schedules. In #Lvov, Sumy and #Rovno oblasts, blackouts occurred in response to strikes in other regions.
🔻 Strikes on PPs and PSs are having their effect, but so far they are not bringing the end result.
Ukrainian power engineers are busy patching up holes and collecting emergency schemes. But the capacity reserves of the energy system in several regions have already run out - nothing can be done about it.
The railways have been badly affected, with electric trains at a standstill. There are clearly not enough diesel locs to remedy the situation. Some passenger trains are delayed for up to 14 hours.
For the first time, the national state of electricity emergency has been declared.
The timing of the restoration indirectly points to problems with the accuracy of the strikes: missiles sometimes strike not important buildings and circuit breakers, but vacant lots, leaving huge craters. Damage like this can only be done to insulators and wires, which are then repaired in 12 hours.
🩸 But strikes on critical technological units of TPPs, CHPPs and HPPs must continue. Particular attention should be paid to Zmiivska TPP as the main node on which Kharkov's power supply currently rests, as well as TPP-3, which is responsible for powering industrial facilities.
https://t.me/sitreports/2254
Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 13:51 utc | 6
Slavyangrad is reporting that the Polish ruling party is making extensive plans to conquer western Ukraine - that they have support in Kiev, that they are building up paramilitaries and plan for referendums in the territories. Sounds good.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 13:55 utc | 7
Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 18 2022 13:46 utc | 4
I was ready to accept that it was Putin playing lawyer in the beginning, perhaps a naive play but respectable. Now almost a year later with mistakes piling up, red lines being crossed and NATO mission creep still ongoing with no serious response. I just cannot believe that Putin, one man, is screwing this up top to bottom. My occams razor points to general incompetence or a faction in Kremlin sabotaging the effort. I mean Azov affiliated people rent in Moscow and kill high profile journalist, Crimean bridge attack, nuclear bombers attacked, government officials in added oblasts drop like flies, civilians getting bombed what seems to be daily now in Russia proper. Like i said it just keeps piling on. Ive been watching 60 minut and other Russian media from rutube to telegram pretty much every day and were at a point where Russians are saying destroy whole Ukraine, enough already. But Kremlin says NO.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 14:00 utc | 8
The lack of ammunition for artillery and MLRS forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to focus on the development of light, fast combat groups that move in jeeps and armored vehicles, such as Kozak, Warta and other similar Western specimens.It is realizable only if you have more infantry and you do not look at losses. And believe me, there are a lot of them when using lightly armored vehicles.
The strategy works with a lightning attack supported by ultra-precise artillery, which hits a given square, and at this moment the “light cavalry” swoops down on the opponent from the flanks, and tanks and infantry fighting vehicles / armored personnel carriers go in the forehead.
This tactic worked in the Kharkov case, since the Russians had little “manpower”, and cunning officials reported that there were 1,000 soldiers, but in reality there were at most two hundred of them (someone wrote off money well).
In the Kherson case, this tactic worked a little, they managed to push the Russians back, but the losses were huge. Then Kherson was “exchanged” according to an agreement that neither side recognizes.
Now the Russians have resolved the issue with the infantry, and again the factor of artillery and MLRS began to play a huge role, as it was in the summer. Even then, we pointed out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a shortage of ammunition, which would only worsen and become one of the biggest problems.
Now the breakthrough of the Russians is being held back by sending a huge amount of infantry to the Bakhmut meat grinder.
According to our information, Bakhmut was ordered to hold until NG, and after that they will begin to retreat. This is a political decision, not a strategic one. It is important for Zelensky to end the year on a victorious note.I wonder what other combined attacks and defenses we will see in this war, which takes place on the Ukrainian training ground, where the Russian Federation and the West compete, and the Ukrainians are just a tool in the game.
https://t.me/legitimniy/14343
Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 14:01 utc | 9
Slavyangrad is reporting that the Polish ruling party is making extensive plans to conquer western Ukraine - that they have support in Kiev, that they are building up paramilitaries and plan for referendums in the territories. Sounds good.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 13:55 utc | 8
The hyenas have gathered, let the feast begin.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 18 2022 14:01 utc | 10
reply to 10
Retreat means little long term because the meat grinder would just move somewhere else. They just don't have enough equipment and that means futile counterattacks. Tanks in particular are missing.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 14:13 utc | 11
@1 experienced.
Yes it's hard to not draw the conclusion Putin is part of the problem, and given Zelenskys statement about wanting to make ukraine like Israel, the khazarian thesis makes more sense.
Russia would be better served drafting Putin to command a front line battalion.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 14:15 utc | 12
Posted by: B. Wildered | Dec 18 2022 13:50 utc | 5
Given the price of oil is below the cap, it has had little effect. It's the general drop in the price of oil which has had an effect of dropping Russian oil revenue a few percent. So not much to say on the part of the MSM.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 18 2022 14:18 utc | 13
Russia winning the war. that opinion will get you barred on some sites. if they were not winning, that would not happen.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 18 2022 14:19 utc | 14
Retreat means little long term because the meat grinder would just move somewhere else. They just don't have enough equipment and that means futile counterattacks. Tanks in particular are missing.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 14:13 utc | 11
I understand, the tactics being used are "interesting", but it is still a road to nowhere.
They ought to give up, stop the bloodshed. It will end in Ukraine being divided up like a pie.
Posted by: bemildred | Dec 18 2022 14:20 utc | 15
The red line has been and was crossed months ago by the West.
I wonder what further escalations the West up its sleeve this week.
It is really very stupid to madden the bear more and more. Eventually, that bear will have had enough. That will become a really scary day for those in the West and much of the rest of the world.
For now the bear in concentrating on taking the Donbas. After that day will be a better time for it to turn its anger directly upon the USA.
Posted by: young | Dec 18 2022 14:25 utc | 16
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 14:15 utc | 12
The new Khazaria theory has been going around for a while, it started in the 90s when exiled Khazars saw the opportunity to use their wealth and get back their ancestral homeland. Princes of Kiev destroyed their empire and scattered them all over the world, theyve been looking for a way back since. Basically the plan is to manufacture a conflict where Slavs living in territories of old Khazaria fight each other to exhaustion so they can buy up the depopulated land and drive their new gas and oil pipelines from ME through Israel back home. Why would USA be interested in such a project? Well guess what these people have in common and this is just a tip of the icesbergsteinman.
Janet Yellin, Secretary Treasury
Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State
Robert Klain, Chief of Staff
David Cohen, Deputy Director CIA
Merrick Garland, Attorney General
Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary Homeland Security
Avril Haines, Director National Intelligence
Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State
Victoria Nuland, Secretary State Political Affairs
Eric Lander, Office of Science Technology
Jeffry Zeints, Covid Guru
Rachel Levine, Assistant Health Secretary
Cass Sunstein, Senior Counselor at the Department of Homeland Security, and his wife, Samantha Power, Head of USAID
Dana Stroul, Pentagon Senior Policy Official on the Middle East
Rochelle P. Walensky, CDC Director
Anne Neuberger, Director of Cybersecurity at NSA
Chanan Weissman, Director of Technology at National Security Council
Polly Trottenberg, Deputy Secretary of Transportation
Jessica Rosenworce,l Acting Chairwoman FCC
Jennifer Klein, Co-Chair of the Gender Policy Council
Jared Bernstein, Member of Council of Economic Advisers
David Kessler, Chief Science Officer of COVID Response
Stephanie Pollack, Deputy Administrator Federal Highway Administration
Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 14:36 utc | 17
As the people of the dis-united kingdom struggle in the cost of living crisis mainly caused by Brexit and stupid sanctions against Russia, the MoD has announced that its sending a new batch of high precision Brimstone II missiles to Ukraine.
https://ria.ru/20221218/rakety-1839519344.html
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 18 2022 14:37 utc | 18
(Eric Newhill, https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-what-its-military-leadership-says.html#comments)
Eric, if you're there, I read your criticism of Turcopolier yesterday. But it was great site, unique in fact, and was in no sense a supporter of Washington's foreign policy.
It gave a voice, and a powerful one, to Larry Johnson and Patrick Armstrong, two of the best analysts going and themselves no supporters of that foreign policy. "b" himself wrote in from time to time. I recollect the Colonel paying tribute to "b"'s military analysis and from my reading of MOA I don't reckon "b" to be one of the neocons!
The policy of allowing all points of view to be put forward on the site is still the policy today. I read this comment submitted there just now:-
"Bill, try to look at it from the Russian perspective, simply to understand what they are after, since this clearly isn’t about conquering Ukraine ‘Shock and Awe’ style like NATO has patented. There is no doubt in my mind that they truly believe that elections held before 2014 revealed a little over 50 % of the population supported the presidential candidate leaning towards economic and cultural ties with Russia, and that those people did not feel represented by the regime installed by Victoria Nuland, as revealed in her ‘Fuck the-EU’-telephone call.
"And when Porochenko moved on his own people in the Donbas, and lost, the Russians honestly thought that this Minsk agreement could save the peace. But both Porochenko and Merkel recently revealed that there never was any inclination to honour that agreement, since it was only meant to built the second largest military force in Europe, after Russia, on Ukrainian soil. With the intent to take the Donbas, and conquer Crimea. So, when the shooting started on February 17, from Ukraine towards the Donbas, as reported by European observers, Russia faced this stark choice to let the people in the Donbas rot, or step up to the plate. One week later they went in.
"Though both critics and supporters of Russia maintain they miscalculated, expecting Zelensky to settle for a negotiated way out if only the Russians would threaten Kiev and Kharkov, I think it worked. But the UK and the US insisted that Russia was just bluffing, and that they would run out of ammo and soldiers in no time at all. So, with NATO’s help, it would be a great victory. I maintain that though Russia was disappointed in Germany and France, mainly, they never expected the US and UK, or my own country, Poland and the Baltic states to give up, so they came prepared, turning this thing into an artillery duel, with ample production of ammunition, for which NATO was ill prepared.
"These people you take issue with saw this, or came to see it ‘plain and simple’ as they watched what happened, and contrary to what you are suggesting, they feel strongly that this Ukraine/NATO combi will lose this war. Russia, by western estimates, is firing close to 40.000 rounds of artillery grenades, ‘grinding’ their opponents, while being economical with terrain, in order to cut their own losses. If that is your conclusion, helping Ukraine does not (no longer) amount to sending them more weapons and prolonging the war, with enormous loss of life, and incredible destruction since Russia decided to target the electrical grid, while mobilising another 300.000 troops, of which Zalushny says that this mobilisation was successful, contrary to what ‘sources’ claim. To preserve a Ukrainian nation, not buried under billions of debt, and with able bodied men left, the intelligent thing to do would be to stop the war, and allow the people to decide on which side of the fence they would like to live through setting up referenda."
One wouldn't see comments like that appearing on many anti-Russian sites and it's a credit to Colonel Lang that it appeared on his. As for TTG, also, it's fair to say, anti-Russian, his pithy summary of what happened at the start of the war is one I quote often to those who don't know what was happening in the Donbass in those early days:-
"The Maidan Revolution occurred under conditions of anarchy and continued corruption. Under the cover of that anarchy, the right wing elements, the neo-nazis, white supremacists, anti-semitics and ultra nationalists gained ascendancy. They formed the right wing militias that threatened the lives of those in the east.
"The rebels had no choice but to fight for their lives. And they did. And it got ugly."
That gets to the heart of why I believe we in the West were wrong to support such people. To hell with all the geopolitics and grand theories. We should not be backing neo-Nazis and that's it and all about it.
So yes, it's a pity we pilgrims are now scattered to the four winds but it was a great site. I learned a great deal from it and regret, rather than resent, that the Colonel's sense of honour has now taken him in the other direction.
Good to see you surfacing again, by the way. I noticed you letting rip on Larry Johnson's site and thought, at least there's one "Trumpist" in the States on the same wavelength as me.
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 18 2022 14:41 utc | 19
Greece to send Russian made S-300 missile system to Ukraine if the USA sends its Patriot missile system to Greece, Russia has warned the Greeks that this would be economically bad for Greece.
https://ria.ru/20221218/oruzhie-1839491067.html
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 18 2022 14:42 utc | 20
English Outsider: Trying to look at this from a Russian perspective will get the lynch mobs surrounding one's house. Yes, we should not be backing neo-Nazis, full stop. But the US foreign policy psychos chose that route as the most direct way to make Ukraine 'ours.' Now the narrative is that Nazis in Ukraine is just a fabulation created by Putin's propagandists. Who you gonna believe, they say, me or your lying eyes? Ukraine is a mirror of the US, both run by war criminals.
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 18 2022 15:03 utc | 21
Posted by: Derek Henry | Dec 18 2022 11:32 utc | 221 (previous thread)
"When people say American tax payers are funding Ukraine. It is a lie." I think a more generous interpretation would be that it is a misunderstanding. However, I do not agree with your analysis.
The FED does not lend money to entities like Ukraine in the way you suggest. Actually money is created by the commercial banks, and they carry the debt. The FED provides liquidity for US commercial banks.
Suppose the US lent Ukraine 20 billion (by commercial banks creating it using their index finger as you say). If the money was paid back, you are right, no-one would lose. But Ukraine will not pay it back. The debt will have to be written off. This means that the banking sector who made those bets will scream that they are "too big to fail" and they will be bailed out. Either money will be confiscated from other peoples accounts, or the currency will be inflated. Either way, the US taxpayer will lose out.
However it is very difficult to "follow the money" because there is so much obfuscation and so many arcane transactions. It is easier to "follow the resources". Any resources that US as a whole gives to Ukraine are resources that will not be available to US citizens.
Posted by: Tim | Dec 18 2022 15:05 utc | 22
One thing that I think happened at the beginning of the SMO, came at the moment that the Russians found out that Nazis (neo or real) were not only part of Ukraine, but integrated in most of the western Governments.
I think they had a form of culture shock to find out that WWII had been a waste of time and lives. That the expected anti-nazi sentiment was not only missing, but literally pro-nazi had become part of EU and US policy.
Cognitive dissonance - but it would have taken some time for a reorientation of their inner certitudes - from that of a "good" west, to the reality we can now see.
I am no better, in fact if my father, now dead but who fought in WWII said "why did I bother", it would be understandable.
***
So now does "denazfication" include the present leaders and movers of the west? I don't know, but I estimate that we are getting to the point where it will be one of the only solutions left.
Marinka, the main stronghold of the AFU, was taken by the Russian Armed Forces.Tonight we received information that, after several weeks of fighting, the Donetsk People's Front commandos managed to crush the enemy in the centre of Marinka and were finally able to take control of the last (southern-central) enemy stronghold in the high-rise development area.
Given that at the same time our forces are attacking the town of Pobeda and are well entrenched in the northern parts of Marinka (opposite Krasnogorovka), there can be no enemy counterattack. This means that after mopping up the town, which may take a few days, Marinka will be completely under the control of our troops, after which it will be time for Krasnogorovka and... to resume the offensive against Ugledar. Because after taking control of the town of Pobeda, the Ukrainian military grouping in Ugledar will essentially find itself in a very difficult situation. And a strike on Kostyantynivka from the north could be fatal for it.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25419
Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 15:23 utc | 24
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1
If Russia decapitated Ukraine day one kalibrating Elensky, all his goons and anyone associated with them cutting diplomacy to zero. ... We would be in healing process right now, western idiots would still be recovering from the shock they wouldnt even have gone the sanctions route if Ukraine fell in couple weeks.
- The EU and the economy of the Anglo American empire would still be intact.
- Africa, Asia and South America would still be under the illusion they're dealing with rational, agreement-capable actors in the West.
- The global economy would as firmly in the grip of the Anglo American empire as ever, China's rise notwithstanding.
- Russians would still be trapped in their West-infatuated stupor, still dreaming they might one-day be treated like "white people".
Instead, Putin is deconstructing the Empire of Lies brick by brick, forcing every state in the world to pick their sides or suffer the consequences, shaking the very foundations of the Empire.
Changing the Rules of the Game.
None of that would have been possible with a "quick kill" of the Ukrainian power structure.
Instead, the Empire would have just continued as it always had to apply it's strategy of "strangulation", as it did with the Soviet Union.
Putin understands that it's this "strategy of strangulation" that is most dangerous to Russia. While he allows the West to play by it's own rules Russia will always be ten steps behind leading eventually to defeat.
There's no way out but to switch the rules of the game, keep the game going and ensure that it's the West playing catch up with Russia and not the other way around.
Anything else would be postponing the inevitable.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
Regarding all the talk by U.S. media of Russia accusing Russia of threatening to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (which is B.S.), I would highly recommend the following article which predicts that this is all a precursor to a U.S. planned false flag nuclear event in Ukraine:
https://thesaker.is/carthage-must-be-destroyed/
My view is that Russia/Putin is witnessing the gradual escalation by the West and really doesn't know what to do. Here's an idea: Have Lavrov read a statement by Putin at the United Nations that spells out the red lines that would cause Russia to nuke major cities in the EU and the U.S. For example, providing fighter jets or bombers to Ukraine, providing a more advanced surface to air missile system, providing NATO soldiers to fight in Ukrainian uniforms, introducing NATO forces on the ground in Ukraine, etc.
This would get the attention of the sheep in the EU and the U.S. Hopefully, enough sheep will not want to be nuked and will suddenly become aware of the threat posed to them by the war in Ukraine, thus they would rise up to oppose it.
If Russia doesn't draw red lines and find a way to get the message to the citizens of the EU and the U.S., the gradual escalation will proceed, as will false flag incidents to turn the world against Russia, with the ultimate false flag being detonation of a nuclear bomb that is at least on the order of the 9/11 event, with the goal of getting Russia removed in short order from the U.N. security council. This, of course, would greatly weaken Russia and likely have a hugely negative impact on their economy.
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 15:36 utc | 26
@1
The bigger battle may be to force the US out of Europe. If so, a long, slow economic strangulation followed by an unseemly scramble by Poland/Romania to take parts of Western Ukraine makes sense.
Posted by: VtObserver | Dec 18 2022 15:49 utc | 27
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 18 2022 14:37 utc | 18
The disunited UK is fighting back against the attacks from the chiselling bastards of its own and the international capitalist class.
Brexit is little to do with the present cost-of-living crisis.
This is due to years of asset-stripping by the neo-liberalists, including the rape of our industries by the EU.
The UKR war provides a cover for the exploiters who try to blame it all on Russia.
Victory to Russia !
Posted by: Engineer-John | Dec 18 2022 15:50 utc | 28
so the leader of every European nation knows who blew up NS2, right?
so they are, 100% of them, fully on board with the "let's fight WW3 with F35's" agenda, right?
none of them are non-participants, are they? (excepting other Slavic states...but are they telling the world what NATO is up to? no.)
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Dec 18 2022 15:52 utc | 29
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 15:36 utc | 26
this is all a precursor to a U.S. planned false flag nuclear event in Ukraine:
A nuclear false-flag on the territory of Ukraine is both technically infeasible and politically meaningless.
If attempted it would demonstrate nothing more than desperation on the part of the West and confirm that it is truly out of ideas.
My view is that Russia/Putin is witnessing the gradual escalation by the West and really doesn't know what to do.
You have it ass-backwards.
It is the West that is unsure what to do as evidenced by the fact that they have only three responses to anything Russia does:
- Issuing endless token and self-destructive sanctions
- Ordering the ritual suicide and sabotage of their own allies
- Flooding Ukraine with large amounts of thrift-store weapons
The Russian approach by contrast has been systematic, measured, innovative (on the economic front), novel (in terms of military tactics) and broad (ranging from the diplomatic, legal, technological, geopolitical and cultural).
Here's an idea: Have Lavrov read a statement by Putin at the United Nations that spells out the red lines that would cause Russia to nuke major cities in the EU and the U.S.
See M.A.D doctrine. The Red Lines are well known by both sides.
This would get the attention of the sheep in the EU and the U.S.
"sheep" are called that for a reason. "Sheep" have no say in a conversation between wolves.
... with the goal of getting Russia removed in short order from the U.N. security council.
Meaningless.
States are on the UNSC because they are powerful, not because they are wanted there.
Removing Russia from the UNSC would not change the fact that it holds a vote on whether the world continues existing or not ...
This, of course, would greatly weaken Russia and likely have a hugely negative impact on their economy.
Nonsense. Russia derives no economic benefit from it's position on the UNSC.
Besides, if the current flood of sanctions hasn't done much to weaken the Russian economy then what would this minor administrative change do to it?
In fact, removing Russia from the UNSC would be suicide for both the UNSC as an institution and for the remaining western powers on it:
- China would be outvoted by the the three colonial powers America, Britain and France on almost every issue.
- China would have to remove itself from the council or acknowledge it's powerlessness
- The three colonial powers would be free to take every single stupid self-serving resolution they desire - and bear the consequences thereof.
China and Russia's role on the UNSC is essentially to save the Anglos and French from their own madness.
Perhaps it is not such a bad thing after all ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 16:01 utc | 30
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
No bullshit, i understand that point of view and wish i could share the optimism. But in view of what i think i know, i cant subscribe to that plan working at all unless end goal is total war against NATO. Risk of this conflict spreading grows every day, escalation train seems to have no breaks. Can Russia actually win that war? Maybe, at what cost? We cannot ignore that NATO has some very impressive toys and Ukraine is holding Russia back with a fraction of their second tier hardware that cant even reach Russian backlines. Poles and Baltics cant wait to get in there, they are just as fanatical as Ukrainians and wont be an easy foe to defeat. How many armies will Russia have to defeat before it even gets to Americans? How badly will they be extended by that point? These are all serious questions with some uncomfortable answers. I think that a war with NATO could have been avoided if Russia pacified Ukraine with overwhelming force, with their political establishment dead there would be no negotiations for weapons deliveries or any diplomacy going on at all. There could be some dude from Donbas sitting in Elenskys chair right now. Of course theres alot of assuming going on here but hey were having fun.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 16:04 utc | 31
@29 It stands to reason your average European will have no choice but reach the conclusion their good friends in America had a hand in destroying those gas pipelines. Some derring do Brits may have been involved in the operation but the Nudelman admin pulled the strings.
It also stands to reason they're going to start saying it out loud.
Posted by: chunga | Dec 18 2022 16:11 utc | 32
Stonebird | Dec 18 2022 15:20 utc | 23
______
Great insights concluding with
"So now does "denazfication" include the present leaders and movers of the west? I don't know, but I estimate that we are getting to the point where it will be one of the only solutions left."
We can be sure that Russia's goals now include more than those cards they've turned face-up on the table.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 16:13 utc | 33
Interesting anecdotes from a Canadian mercenary:
“We were really effective but we only had eight guys left out of 15 when I left for home. Unfortunately, two days after I stepped off the plane, they got sent into a trench and ended up getting hit. Only one guy was left from the team and he is in hospital.”
"Challice said that the high casualty rate is the consequence of a Russian advantage in artillery coverage. “The way war works right now with drones, is that they (Ukrainian troops) get sent into spot A to draw fire from artillery and tanks, while other teams get into position to locate and destroy. So, you’ve got to give people to get into position. It’s unfortunate but it is the only logical way to push forward."
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canadian-soldier-second-tour-of-duty-in-ukraine
Posted by: Splash of Bourbon | Dec 18 2022 16:16 utc | 34
Eighthman @ 7
Slavyangrad is reporting that the Polish ruling party is making extensive plans to conquer western Ukraine - that they have support in Kiev, that they are building up paramilitaries and plan for referendums in the territories. Sounds good.
How is making an aggressive, rabidly Russophobic, quasi-fascist USA quisling Poland bigger, richer, and more militarized that is now sharing a border with Russia good? Of course if it all goes to hell, they bite off more than they can chew, ruin relations with the EU and find themselves immersed in a hyper-klepocracy, hyper-indebted, bankrupt gangster war state that would be a comeuppance, but Poland taking Western Ukraine is in no way good for Russia. It could however have more stable static mass than a rump Ukraine, but flip a coin where that goes. For Russia it would be a fait accompli, I doubt the can prevent Poland from taking what they can't take.
BTW a while back someone wondered why Russia doesn't just MOAB Artemivsk into submission as after 10 months of static fighting it must be little more than a WW1 wasteland of foxholes and trenches. I wondered this too, well it seems not too different from Mariupol though smaller, there is still a city there with people living in it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqmlwkY0cr0
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 18 2022 16:24 utc | 35
reply to 35
I can't understand the favor Ukraine has for Poland. They passed some laws apparently helping Polish to run things in Ukraine. Where are the Azov fanatics? Why haven't they stopped this trend?
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 18 2022 16:33 utc | 36
@ Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
Pearls before swine.
...but thank you for sparing the rest of us our time repeating what regulars have been saying for a year.
Posted by: klik2 | Dec 18 2022 16:37 utc | 37
Arch Bungle @ 30
Good stuff, great insight on the UN. It would collapse overnight w/ Russia. I've know several people and had a few friends among all the thousands that work there, all parasites, all sinecures, all elites from their native countries doing nothing, feasting at the trough, living lux in NYC. No way would they remove Russia and derail the gravy train. Full stop.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 18 2022 16:37 utc | 38
Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 15:32 utc | 25
______
Thanks for laying it out so clearly in reply to [in]experienced. His/her scenario, a decapitation strike on Kiev by Russia, would in fact be a most welcome event for US Neocons.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 16:39 utc | 39
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 16:04 utc | 31
Not to belabour the point, but:
... unless end goal is total war against NATO.
That bus left the station a long time ago. It is total war against NATO, but at Russia's pace, not NATO's pace.
Risk of this conflict spreading grows every day, escalation train seems to have no breaks.
This was the situation even before 2014, when the West instigated Georgia against the Russians and Saakashvilli ended up eating his tie.
Some would argue it's been going that way since the West started funding Chechen terrorists in Caucasus ... and there has been no brakes since.
Can Russia actually win that war?
How does the biggest nuclear power in the world "lose" this war?
What are the consequences of lying down and accepting Western domination?
Maybe, at what cost?
There is no cost bigger than annihilation and dismemberment.
And that cost was on the cards whether Russia fights or not ...
We cannot ignore that NATO has some very impressive toys and
We cannot ignore that Russia has even more impressive toys
Ukraine is holding Russia back with a fraction of their second tier hardware
No they're not. Lay off the crack, please.
Poles and Baltics cant wait to get in there, they are just as fanatical as Ukrainians and wont be an easy foe to defeat.
They're filling up the cemeteries in Poland as we speak.
I don't have much respect for the military prowess of the Poles or Baltics.
The Russians have a long tradition of military victory and innovation within modern history.
The Poles and Balts, not so much ...
How many armies will Russia have to defeat before it even gets to Americans?
Only the AFU and their steadily declining stocks of volunteers and mercenaries. After that, Europe has no armies worth mentioning.
Do you really think Lithuanian, Latvian, Slovenian, French, Italian or German armies are going to make a dent against the Russian army?
Puh-leez!
How badly will they be extended by that point?
Why are you assuming they'll extend themselves?
You think they want to occupy all of Europe ?
These are all serious questions with some uncomfortable answers.
No. None of them are serious questions in my opinion. These sound like the fears of a paranoid mind.
I think that a war with NATO could have been avoided if Russia pacified Ukraine with overwhelming force, with their political establishment dead there would be no negotiations for weapons deliveries or any diplomacy going on at all.
The result would have been Iraq: A civil war along factional lines with the EU and US infiltrating weapons, insurgents and special forces into the chaos. The kind of environment the Americans love to operate in ...
Maintaining the leadership maintains the illusion of order while the state is being dismantled.
It simplifies the job of taking apart Ukraine without a lot of unnecessary chaos and unpredictability the RF would have to deal with.
The Russians avoided making the same mistakes as the Americans in Iraq.
There could be some dude from Donbas sitting in Elenskys chair right now.
Or a dude from the Azov battalion ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 16:41 utc | 40
Basically, it appears, Putin believed that Ukraine would not fight.[...]
I just cannot believe that Putin, one man, is screwing this up top to bottom. My occams razor points to general incompetence or a faction in Kremlin sabotaging the effort.[...]
For now the bear in concentrating on taking the Donbas.[...]
Russia would be better served drafting Putin to command a front line battalion[...]
....
Fyodor Lukyanov: One year ago, Russia gave the West a last chance to prevent a full-blown conflict – what went wrong?
It's been a year since a Russian document outlining proposals (or demands, if you prefer) for long-term guarantees on European security was delivered to NATO and the US. This was the starting point of the major politico-military crisis that defines the global situation today.Was the Russian ultimatum (and that is how it was formulated) designed to be rejected, or did it envisage a path to negotiations?
President Vladimir Putin probably reasoned along the following lines: after so many years of ignoring our wishes and convictions, let's give it one last chance. Let's put forward the maximum set of demands, everything that has been said before, but outline them in one place and in a concentrated form, and see what happens.
If they realize that this time that it’s extremely serious, and with that in mind, decide on a real discussion, we are ready. However, if they start to waste time again, then that's it. Let's cut to the chase.
If the response from the West was not satisfactory, the military operation in Ukraine would be the next step. There was apparently no chance of avoiding it by then. After all, the logic behind the need for the offensive was outlined in Putin's big article in the summer of 2021. That is, the security demands were made when the internal readiness for action was already in place.
The scale of the consequences leads many to return to the question: Was what happened inevitable?[...]
I have to say that the consultations that took place in January 2022 showed that the US was ready for some concessions on specific issues of military security. To a greater extent than they had indicated before the demands were made. However, this amounted to very little relative to the overall picture. Most importantly, NATO and the Americans categorically refused to discuss the main political issue: a formal rejection of NATO expansion.[...]
After one year, how should we assess the outcome for our country, based literally on what was said in the document? The main outcome is that the politico-military situation has changed radically. Consequently, Russia's dissatisfaction with the previous state of affairs has been partially sated. As it was, it will no longer be.[...]
Bakhmut nor Dombass nor even Ukraine is the endgame. Just the opening.
The opening is the first phase of a chess game. It stops when the forces of both opponents are mobilized and the kings are safe.
One year ago, Russia was'nt safe nor its forces (and allies) were mobilized (in the open).
In 2007, Russia was in no position to play the game. In 2014, in no position to go beyond the pale of Crimea.
2021 President Vladimir Putin probably reasoned along the following lines: after so many years of ignoring our wishes and convictions...
To nearly copy-past ArchBungle
Putin understands {since 2007 or sooner} that it's this "strategy of strangulation" that is most dangerous to Russia. While he allows the West to play by it's own rules Russia will always be ten steps behind leading eventually to defeat.
Posted by: La Bastille | Dec 18 2022 16:42 utc | 41
Arch Bungle @ 25
There's no way out but to switch the rules of the game, keep the game going and ensure that it's the West playing catch up with Russia and not the other way around. Anything else would be postponing the inevitable.
What's the (supposedly) Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times"? I only had 2-3 more decades to go but looks like the curse caught up to me.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 18 2022 16:48 utc | 42
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 16:39 utc | 39
Thats a missed shot Doug, because he didnt lay out anything i didnt already read countless times in these comments these past months. I have heard this point of view ad nauseum and its just as false this time as last time. You will just have to accept that we have some disagreements here.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 16:48 utc | 43
Sorry, link to
Fyodor Lukyanov: One year ago, Russia gave the West a last chance to prevent a full-blown conflict – what went wrong?
https://www.rt.com/russia/568451-fyodor-lukyanov-one-year-ago/
Posted by: La Bastille | Dec 18 2022 16:48 utc | 44
Posted by: La Bastille | Dec 18 2022 16:42 utc | 41
While he allows the West to play by it's own rules Russia will always be ten steps behind leading eventually to defeat.
By the way, I learned that from my dear departed mum as a boy when she first taught me the rudiments of schoolyard brawling. Bless her soul.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 16:53 utc | 45
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 18 2022 16:48 utc | 42
I only had 2-3 more decades to go but looks like the curse caught up to me.
Count your blessings, you could have lived during the heydays of the Golden Horde ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 16:56 utc | 46
@ experienced | Dec 18 2022 14:36 utc | 17
---
What have you got against Effective Altruism?
Rabbit meat hole ==> https://www.reddit.com/r/SneerClub/comments/zgbzsx/the_gang_gets_a_castle/
Posted by: too scents | Dec 18 2022 17:01 utc | 47
Ukraine is similar to COVID: After the narrative was established that COVID/Russia are so terrible, it becomes politically very difficult to step back from damaging measures. And since the measures are ineffective, the only way forward is to further escalate - doing even more damage.
Lockdowns and sanctions are really the same self-inflicted stupidity.
The good news is COVID showed the stupidity wears off eventually. With COVID it took two years, but the process is still ongoing. With Ukraine it may take longer, because the impact of the conflict is less direct. On the other hand, a rapid and successful Russian offensive would probably speed up the process.
Posted by: Taiphon | Dec 18 2022 17:06 utc | 48
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 16:41 utc | 40
That bus left the station a long time ago. It is total war against NATO, but at Russia's pace, not NATO's pace.
-Theres an agreement and disagreement here, the ship has sailed yes. Russia isnt controlling anything at this point theyre just reacting, NATO is still fighting using a proxy with no real NATO toys. No NATO countries are evacuating their cities, they arent getting bombed daily.
This was the situation even before 2014, when the West instigated Georgia against the Russians and Saakashvilli ended up eating his tie.
Some would argue it's been going that way since the West started funding Chechen terrorists in Caucasus ... and there has been no brakes since.
-Force puts an end to all of that.
How does the biggest nuclear power in the world "lose" this war?
What are the consequences of lying down and accepting Western domination?
-Same way every army loses, it runs out of resources. Unless you suggest Russia will just nuke the world if they cannot win a conventional war, ok then what are we even talking about? No one here and certainly not me suggested lying down and accepting Western domination so i cant speak to that.
There is no cost bigger than annihilation and dismemberment.
And that cost was on the cards whether Russia fights or not ...
-Annihilation and dismemberment is a very real possibility if they fight NATO.
We cannot ignore that NATO has some very impressive toys and
We cannot ignore that Russia has even more impressive toys
-NATO just has more. Wahts the population of Russia like 150mil?
No they're not. Lay off the crack, please.
-Yes they are, not only holding back but also retaking territory. Unless youve been asleep past 5 months.
They're filling up the cemeteries in Poland as we speak.
I don't have much respect for the military prowess of the Poles or Baltics.
The Russians have a long tradition of military victory and innovation within modern history.
The Poles and Balts, not so much ...
-Ok...
Only the AFU and their steadily declining stocks of volunteers and mercenaries. After that, Europe has no armies worth mentioning.
Do you really think Lithuanian, Latvian, Slovenian, French, Italian or German armies are going to make a dent against the Russian army?
Puh-leez!
-Way to underestimate the enemy who outnumbers you in every single way.
Why are you assuming they'll extend themselves?
You think they want to occupy all of Europe ?
-They will have to unless they think theres enough Russians to defend forever.
No. None of them are serious questions in my opinion. These sound like the fears of a paranoid mind.
-Nothing to add, this is just salty nonsense.
The result would have been Iraq: A civil war along factional lines with the EU and US infiltrating weapons, insurgents and special forces into the chaos. The kind of environment the Americans love to operate in ...
-So the result we have now? Ok
Maintaining the leadership maintains the illusion of order while the state is being dismantled.
It simplifies the job of taking apart Ukraine without a lot of unnecessary chaos and unpredictability the RF would have to deal with.
The Russians avoided making the same mistakes as the Americans in Iraq.
-We shall see about that, from where i sit mistakes is all that Russia has been making since march.
There could be some dude from Donbas sitting in Elenskys chair right now.
Or a dude from the Azov battalion ...
-Russians install Azov fighters into leadership? I didnt know that.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 17:09 utc | 49
Rybar:
➖ The power supply was restored by the following day. The remaining unscathed CHPP-3, generating about 86 MW, cannot supply all of Kharkov with electricity. It is likely that power supply is via the switchyard of the Zmievskaya TPP.
To prevent this scenario, the Kremenchuk 330kV and Mirgorod 330kV PSs were likely hit, causing blackouts in the Poltava region. But the damage seems to be non-critical and electricity transit through the Poltava 330kV PS was restored by the morning.
Why are Russian attacks on energy infrastructure so ineffective?
Are they imprecise?
Is it possible to use bigger missile, maybe ICBM, filed with TNT instead of nuclear bomb?
Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:29 utc | 50
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎬 Clearing of the Fortified Area of the AFU on the southern outskirts of #Maryinka⚡️Tankers of Southern Military District @tankist4 shared with us footage of fighting in #Maryinka. The video shows Ukrainian positions being cleared in the urban development on the southern outskirts. By settling in multi-storey buildings, the AFU turned every inch of the city into one big stronghold.
Advancement in #Maryinka is complicated by the presence of civilians, who are not allowed out of the settlement and are used as human shields by Ukrainian militants.
Despite this, the RF Armed Forces personnel broke through the AFU positions in the centre of #Maryinka (see 👉 Report), cutting into the defensive lines on Druzhba Avenue and starting to mop up the area along Shakhtorskaya Street.
Coordinates: 47.9358, 37.5034
🔻 However, the AFU understands the threat posed by the loss of #Maryinka. Strongpoints are being set up within the city limits. The forces of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade have been deployed to the forward positions, and the 36th Separate Marines Brigade is in the second echelon.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces have pushed the RF Armed Forces southwards, creating a bridgehead to further advance and flank the Russian grouping in #Maryinka or east of #Novomikhailovka.
🩸Vladlen Tatarsky explains the loss of position by unhelpful rotations of units to different parts of the front, resulting in a loss of well-established cooperation and understanding between fighters.
The still-existing problem of tasking according to the lesson plan, rather than the real needs at the front, is deeply entrenched in the army.
Instead of providing the combat cohesion required at the front between the troops and consequently increasing the likelihood of a successful defence/offensive, some commanders are committing acts unacceptable to the warring units.
The complete elimination of pointless bureaucracy, the establishment of clear interaction between Russian servicemen and the removal of detached military commanders are the minimum measures that can lead to positive changes in the RF Armed Forces.
https://t.me/sitreports/2269
Vladlen Tatarsky- referred to above:
The morning for me personally began with bad news. The enemy managed to dislodge our troops from the positions for which we fought all autumn. Of course, success is so-so. They have already changed hands three times, but still ...It's not my business, of course, but this happens almost always when some strange rotations occur. It seems that somewhere in the high headquarters they just play backgammon and lose brigades and divisions to each other. They just settled down and got used to it, got acquainted with the enemy, and then the unit was transferred to another sector of the front. Immediately there are explosions on mines and the loss of some positions.
Yesterday, already late in the evening, they told us about one of our offensive attempts on one of the sectors of the front. All according to the classics of 1942. I believe that if the general arranged Rzhev two or three times at the minimum wage, he should be changed, and not let him do it the tenth and eleventh time. It is necessary to do the "rotation of a fool for a fool."
https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/18147
Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 17:32 utc | 51
Can Russia use old Tochka missals when attacking Ukro energy infrastructure?
Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:33 utc | 52
Why are Russian attacks on energy infrastructure so ineffective?
Are they imprecise?
Is it possible to use bigger missile, maybe ICBM, filed with TNT instead of nuclear bomb?
The attacks are accomplishing exactly what the Russians want done.
They are exhausting the spares inventory which maintains the electric grid, and they are exhausting the Ukrainian AAM inventory too.
Their mode encourages the Ukies to take their spares out of those hidey holes, put them in known places, where the next attack can destoy them.
This mode also encourages the Ukie civilian population to emigrate to Poland, etal...
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Dec 18 2022 17:34 utc | 53
Arch Bungle @25: Well done sir. Keen critical analysis on the basis of geostrategical insights and evaluations.
Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 18 2022 17:53 utc | 54
I think this war is much more then conflict between Russia and The West. It is a conflict between two philosophies. The West adores the power of the individual, the power of individual will. They think that individual will can defeat biology, physics, history…
“You can be everything”, that is promised by protestant modern preachers.
This is a typical psychopathic vision, ego centered world.
On the other hand, Russia represents the old, organic world. It is just a national state defending its core values, defending its essence. In the Russian world the public, or common imperative is more important then the individual will.
But The West in now in contradictions. The defenders of “freedom” are inducing censorship. Is that not predictable? What is the main base for such an exploration of “individual will”. It is control, control of symbolic over organic, over own body. Is that not what we find at universities and big techno corporations where dead soul employees usually suffer pretending to be happy.
Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:56 utc | 55
as I type 4 hrs ago,
Ze made a video
Ahead of World Cup Final Zelensky's calls for world peace
Nobel Peace Prize 3, 2, 1,
However, FIFA rejected the request to broadcast his message.
Posted by: Likklemore | Dec 18 2022 18:07 utc | 56
@Arch Bungle,
many thanks for your continuous efforts to debunk the obvious "Russia is losing and it is Putin's fault" crowd, who can be very tiring...I very much appreciate your posts!
Posted by: Anthony | Dec 18 2022 18:11 utc | 57
@Arch Bungle #30
You write: "A nuclear false-flag on the territory of Ukraine is both technically infeasible and politically meaningless."
I suggest you read the Saker article that I posted above.
You write: "See M.A.D doctrine. The Red Lines are well known by both sides."
While you assert that the MAD doctrine is in effect and everyone knows the red lines, I disagree. This used to be true but many neo-cons in the U.S. appear to believe that we can win a nuclear war. One well-known pundit, ex military General Jack Keene, said earlier this year on a television program that our goal is not to prevent a nuclear war, but just to win the war in Ukraine. He didn't believe we should be dissuaded by fear of a nuclear war, thus he promoted escalation without concern for possible Russian reactions. I'm not sure where you live or what TV channels you watch, but as someone who lived through the Cuban missile crisis, I can tell you that the attitudes today by many young people are delusional in their beliefs about the invincibility of America. Crazy yes, but true nevertheless.
I agree with "experienced" in his post #1 today. Had Russia gone in with force at the outset and obtained victory within 7-10 days, it would have delivered the message that Russia is indeed a world power, and the 100,000 or more deaths by Ukrainians, as well as some significant number of Russians, would have been avoided. I think a quick victory for Russia would have bolstered respect for Russia around the world. I don't believe Putin or anyone else could have predicted all the twists and turns that this has taken. It's hard for me to see how this has been a worthwhile adventure for Russia, but then again, I'm not saying I'm certain I'm right. I believe Russia will prevail, but nobody can say that for sure -- we don't really know what other twists and turns may lie ahead.
You wrote: "In fact, removing Russia from the UNSC would be suicide for both the UNSC as an institution and for the remaining western powers on it"...then listed some reasons you believe this.
My question would be, why is there ongoing talk about removing Russia, e.g., the Helsinki Commission recommended it... probably because our people put them up to this. The U.S. must see certain advantages in this, and I assume we think we can use this in some way to dissuade countries from trading with them. The U.S. goal appears to be to make Russia an outcast country, perhaps as a way of accomplishing regime change.
Again, I'm not certain of anything and I really don't think anyone can be when it comes to the U.S. and what the idiots who are running this country might do in the future. As I said in a post yesterday, our neo-cons are like angry children in adult bodies, but they do appear to be in control of the U.S.
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 17:09 utc | 49
Russia isnt controlling anything at this point theyre just reacting,
I think you've been asleep for the past few months.
When I see:
- Russia systematically shutting down the Ukrainian power grid at a timing and cadence of their choosing,
- kalibr and iskander missiles taking out factories and facilities in Ukraine while Ukrainian air defense fails so badly it poses more of a hazard to Ukrainians than Russian missiles,
- the West having to bargain with Putin on whether grain can leave Odessa are not,
- Russia holding referendums within the territory it takes
- Occasionally retreating but under no direct attack and to only take up positions of it's own designation
- Ukrainian forces bombing actual nuclear power plants
- Ukrainian forces trying to sabotage the kerch bridge to no actual effect
- etc...
this does not leave me with the impression that NATO has any control over anything.
NATO is still fighting using a proxy with no real NATO toys.
That's because it has none. Seriously, NATO has nothing impressive.
Not even an air defense system they can loan to Zelensky that actually works.
Between HiMARS and Minuteman missiles there's a great big gaping black hole.
No NATO countries are evacuating their cities, they arent getting bombed daily.
Well ... that's because Russia isn't attacking any NATO countries to begin with. What's your game here?
-Force puts an end to all of that.
Huh?
-Same way every army loses, it runs out of resources.
Not every army loses by running out of resources - in fact few do these days.
But even if this is a risk, there's a long way between Russia running out of resources and the EU turning into a third world hellhole.
As for Russia resorting to nuclear weapons:
Let's assume it does indeed run out of conventional battlefield weapons, and somehow the NATO does not (requires extreme suspension of rational thought here). Let's assume then that NATO pushes the limit to Russia's borders. Of course yes there's going to be a nuclear war.
But before we ever get to that point Europe will lie in ruins as it did in WW2, except this time there'll be no Marshal plan.
There'll be hordes of middle eastern and African refugees willing to rebuild New Europe though ...
So the question remains: How does the world's biggest nuclear power lose this war?
then what are we even talking about? No one here and certainly not me suggested lying down and accepting Western domination so i cant speak to that.
That's essentially what you're suggesting by excluding the option of fighting NATO. You seem to have missed the fact that it's NATO's stated intention to destroy Russia.
By "not fighting NATO" you can only be suggesting bending the knee to it - since no middle ground exists.
-Annihilation and dismemberment is a very real possibility if they fight NATO.
Like I stated: This is ... on the cards whether Russia fights or not
To explicate further: There is no avoiding a war with NATO, it is inevitable. The only choice Russia has is when the war will begin and on whose terms
We cannot ignore that Russia has even more impressive toys
-NATO just has more. Wahts the population of Russia like 150mil?
Come now, be serious. Are you talking "toys" or "people"? It's not polite to change subjects like that ...
-Yes they are, not only holding back but also retaking territory. Unless youve been asleep past 5 months.
- If they were really "holding the Russians back" they would not have to "retake" any territory at all.
- Since the Russians are not fighting a war for territory, one wonders what the AFU is retaking to begin with. Where are they holding the Russians "back from"?
Sure did a bang up job in Mariupol, right? Going well in Bakhmut? Marynka?
- The AFU are getting slaughtered though, and their casualties are an order of magnitude more than the Russians.
So, the AFU is stuck on second tier equipment (admitted by you), taking higher casualties (lots of information to support this) and not "holding back" the Russians from anywhere in particular (a look at the map confirms the Russians are still sitting on roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory - exclude the Azov sea)
Besides, having 50%+ of Ukrainian electrical grid in a constant state of collapse and air defense systems that don't work is not a reasonable notion of "holding back" anyone.
-Way to underestimate the enemy who outnumbers you in every single way.
"outnumbered" in every single way? You must not be following the news much:
- The Russians "outnumber" NATO forces in artillery and missile forces. Established fact.
- The Russians are outnumbered in terms of human bodies ... and yet they're dominating the battlefield. That means the NATO forces masquerading as AFU must be pretty shit.
Plus, not a day goes by without lamentation from the US or EU about their declining ammunition stocks and inability to keep up with the weapons demands of the AFU.
-They will have to unless they think theres enough Russians to defend forever.
Why not just stop in Ukraine and grind up whoever is dumb enough to cross the border?
I mean, that's effectively what they're doing now, right?
Besides, you think those EU armies are going to be all that enthusiastic about "dying for Ukraine" while their families are freezing and starving back home and their industries are steadily being shipped out to the US and China?
Perhaps, but they'll be an army of paupers because the EU is collapsing as we speak.
-So the result we have now? Ok
... is nothing like Iraq.
Nothing like it at all.
-We shall see about that, from where i sit mistakes is all that Russia has been making since march.
Everyone's a perfectionist these days.
-Russians install Azov fighters into leadership? I didnt know that.
Come now. Be serious.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:20 utc | 59
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58
While you assert that the MAD doctrine is in effect and everyone knows the red lines, I disagree. This used to be true but many neo-cons in the U.S. appear to believe ... the attitudes today by many young people are delusional in their beliefs about the invincibility of America. Crazy yes, but true nevertheless.
We are speaking about two different things.
I am saying that the Red Lines have been made clear and indeed they have, numerous times. The truth of this statement stands.
You are talking about people's willingness to respect those red lines.
You see, no matter how clearly you draw red lines you cannot convince the delusional to respect them.
Now, if Russia wanted to burn the notion of red lines into the minds of neocons and the poorly educated Western youth of today it would follow the example of the USA and wipe out a small country with a nuclear strike.
That's how you "convince" the delusional to respect your red lines ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:27 utc | 60
Posted by: Anthony | Dec 18 2022 18:11 utc | 57
A Sisyphean task to be sure!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:30 utc | 61
I've been reading for so long...The USA bled the soviets dry during the cold war. Is it not obvious what is happening? Everyone is calling for Russia to escalate and finish it."Revenge is a dish best served cold" People talk of massive casualties on the Russian side. Really? I have seen no evidence of this. Anyone?? China is waiting in the wings. Together they have more capacity than all the rest combined. Take it easy people...hopefully this WILL last for years...but it probably won't. The west does not have that much in reserve. Their populations are spoiled, lazy, in debt, obese, tired, owned and oppressed yet they don't even know it. Meanwhile the majority of the worlds population move forward. Bring on the multi polar. and all you sycophants can enjoy your demise. IMHO it's coming sooner than later. The propaganda machine is all that is holding it up and to my chagrin it IS quite strong...not right, most often wrong...but for, how long? Only time will tell. Relax, sit back and smell the roses. Certainly they could shock and awe but why and what the hell for. For the 24hr news cycle? "Don’t be stomping on ants when you have elephants to feed."
Posted by: Tricolo | Dec 18 2022 18:32 utc | 62
there are several nuke reactors in the ukraine
if you flatline the complete energy grid all at once,
the plants become , shall we say unstable.
this is a unique energy war.
how to make the reactors safe and shut down, and still remove power from the system.
when the reactors are in a complete cooldown phase...
then we see what happens....
Silver
Posted by: silver | Dec 18 2022 18:34 utc | 63
"Thats a missed shot Doug, because [Arch Bungle] didnt lay out anything i didnt already read countless times in these comments these past months."
experienced | Dec 18 2022 16:48 utc | 43
_______
Al contrario, amigo, Arch Bungle's multiple shots were point-for-point, point-blank strikes --- @25, @30, and then again @40. He dropped you to the mat; I suggest you stay down.
That your responses are unconvincing is an understatement. At best they're the diversionary and nonsensical speculations of an inexperienced armchair strategist; at worst they're the wishful expressions of just what a CIA/Neocon troll would goad Russia into doing.
I'm leaning toward the latter, given that you've proven unable to grasp Arch's self-evident logic or any of what you claim to have "already read countless times in these comments these past months". I question that claim since you seem to have only recently appeared here. That, and your apparent impenetrability to reason make the troll designation most plausible.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 18:35 utc | 64
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58
I agree with "experienced" in his post #1 today. Had Russia gone in with force at the outset and obtained victory within 7-10 days, it would have delivered the message that Russia is indeed a world power,
But that message has already been delivered! The entire global south, Asia, Africa and the Middle East is in Russia's corner particularly because of Russia's approach.
These are civilizations that appreciate a cautious, patient and enduring approach (martial "hookup culture" hasn't yet hit them) to resistance. They already see Russia as a "World Power".
As for Europe and the US/UK + hangers-on and colonies, NOTHING Russia does will ever convince them that it's a "world power". I mean, if being a nuclear power, plus being able to blow off thousands of sanctions over 10 months as if it was seasonal flu doesn't impress the West, NOTHING will.
and the 100,000 or more deaths by Ukrainians, as well as some significant number of Russians, would have been avoided.
How sure are you that Blitzkrieg, against which the AFU has been preparing for 8 years with NATO's help, would have resulted in fewer casualties?
I think a quick victory for Russia would have bolstered respect for Russia around the world.
Russia's respect outside of the West is at an all time high.
Within the West, hatred of Russia can never be resolved.
I don't believe Putin or anyone else could have predicted all the twists and turns that this has taken.
And yet you, 'experienced', rk, zanon, blissex, biswapriya and the like are absolutely CONVINCED they know EXACTLY what Putin should have done - because they somehow have the superpowers to predict ALL the twists and turns.
You wrote: "In fact, removing Russia from the UNSC would be suicide ... The U.S. must see certain advantages in this, and I assume we think we can use this in some way to dissuade countries from trading with them. The U.S. goal appears to be to make Russia an outcast country, perhaps as a way of accomplishing regime change.
Obviously the US is taking the "spray and pray" approach to destroying Russia.
It's called "throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks".
The problem with the US is that it does a lot of things without consideration of the outcome.
Most of these actions generate the opposite desired effect.
If you think ejecting Russia from the UNSC is some 50D chess move, just remember this comes from the same club of people who think the oil price cap was a bright idea.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:52 utc | 65
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 18 2022 18:20 utc | 59
this does not leave me with the impression that NATO has any control over anything.
-Assuming that NATO cares about Ukraines fate and isnt just using it as a hammer against Russian anvil. They dont.
That's because it has none. Seriously, NATO has nothing impressive.
Not even an air defense system they can loan to Zelensky that actually works.
-Delusional
Between HiMARS and Minuteman missiles there's a great big gaping black hole.
-Absolutely delusional
No NATO countries are evacuating their cities, they arent getting bombed daily.
Well ... that's because Russia isn't attacking any NATO countries to begin with. What's your game here?
-My game is NATO isnt getting bombed, Russia is.
Huh?
-Duh
Not every army loses by running out of resources - in fact few do these days.
But even if this is a risk, there's a long way between Russia running out of resources and the EU turning into a third world hellhole.
-EU can turn into a third world hellhole and take Russia with it, that doesnt defeat USA/NATO.
As for Russia resorting to nuclear weapons:
Let's assume it does indeed run out of conventional battlefield weapons, and somehow the NATO does not (requires extreme suspension of rational thought here). Let's assume then that NATO pushes the limit to Russia's borders. Of course yes there's going to be a nuclear war.
-So there will be a nuclear war and theres no avoiding it if we look at it from your perspective. NATO wont just push to Russian borders, Russia proper will be bombed into ruins. You really think NATO doesnt have long range weapons? Oh but of course Russia has the wonder S500 that will shoot everything down and Russia cannot be touched, except it is right now, by trash in comparison to whats in store.
But before we ever get to that point Europe will lie in ruins as it did in WW2, except this time there'll be no Marshal plan.
There'll be hordes of middle eastern and African refugees willing to rebuild New Europe though ...
-Russia will be in ruins too, you are just imagining that Russia doesnt take any damage. Which is silly.
So the question remains: How does the world's biggest nuclear power lose this war?
-No, it doesnt. Answer was perfectly adequate.
then what are we even talking about? No one here and certainly not me suggested lying down and accepting Western domination so i cant speak to that.
That's essentially what you're suggesting by excluding the option of fighting NATO. You seem to have missed the fact that it's NATO's stated intention to destroy Russia.
By "not fighting NATO" you can only be suggesting bending the knee to it - since no middle ground exists.
-I guess they will fight NATO then, and probably lose.
Like I stated: This is ... on the cards whether Russia fights or not
-So theyre fucked no matter what, great.
To explicate further: There is no avoiding a war with NATO, it is inevitable. The only choice Russia has is when the war will begin and on whose terms
-So its letting NATO dicatate terms, get first strikes, grind them via proxy. Amazing strategy.
Come now, be serious. Are you talking "toys" or "people"? It's not polite to change subjects like that ...
-NATO has more of both. Didnt change anything?
- If they were really "holding the Russians back" they would not have to "retake" any territory at all.
- Since the Russians are not fighting a war for territory, one wonders what the AFU is retaking to begin with. Where are they holding the Russians "back from"?
-Now youre pulling arguments that wouldnt hold a drop of water. If they didnt fight for territory they wouldnt have held any referendums, so thats busted.
Sure did a bang up job in Mariupol, right? Going well in Bakhmut? Marynka?
-So thats it, thats the limit of Russian might in 10 months?
- The AFU are getting slaughtered though, and their casualties are an order of magnitude more than the Russians.
- You dont know that, i dont know that. You can start counting confirmed kills from videos going around open source other than that you dont know shit, but i dont think you would like the ratio.
So, the AFU is stuck on second tier equipment (admitted by you), taking higher casualties (lots of information to support this) and not "holding back" the Russians from anywhere in particular (a look at the map confirms the Russians are still sitting on roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory - exclude the Azov sea)
Besides, having 50%+ of Ukrainian electrical grid in a constant state of collapse and air defense systems that don't work is not a reasonable notion of "holding back" anyone.
-Way to underestimate the enemy who outnumbers you in every single way.
"outnumbered" in every single way? You must not be following the news much:
- The Russians "outnumber" NATO forces in artillery and missile forces. Established fact.
-Bullshit
- The Russians are outnumbered in terms of human bodies ... and yet they're dominating the battlefield. That means the NATO forces masquerading as AFU must be pretty shit.
-Dominating battlefield shouldnt include getting bogged down in Donbas for 10 months.
Plus, not a day goes by without lamentation from the US or EU about their declining ammunition stocks and inability to keep up with the weapons demands of the AFU.
-Its good you trust what western media says, they get to play you. I dont take a word they say seriously.
Why not just stop in Ukraine and grind up whoever is dumb enough to cross the border?
I mean, that's effectively what they're doing now, right?
-No, not right. Thats the narrative but both sides are suffering, Russia cant afford to suffer as much as NATO does.
Besides, you think those EU armies are going to be all that enthusiastic about "dying for Ukraine" while their families are freezing and starving back home and their industries are steadily being shipped out to the US and China?
-They are already all enthusiastic about impotent Russia who cant even beat Ukraine. Thats the word on the street in the west, Russia is losing, theyre shit, and we would wipe the floor with them. You go change their minds.
Perhaps, but they'll be an army of paupers because the EU is collapsing as we speak.
-Thats when EU population will be primed for war, economy in the dirt, life sucks, plunder Russia.
... is nothing like Iraq.
Nothing like it at all.
-True, its worse for Russians than it was for Americans.
Everyone's a perfectionist these days.
-Touche
Come now. Be serious.
-You said that, im the one confused.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 18:55 utc | 66
experienced = stupid superficial bullshit... isn't worth a response..
@ English Outsider | Dec 18 2022 14:41 utc | 19
it was a good site... unfortunately all good things come to an end... it is no longer a good site.. fortunately moa continues...
peter au left a good link on the topic of nazis and ukraine and by extension the west... worth a look if anyone is wondering about the veracity of this...
Nazi collaborator monuments in Ukraine
Posted by: james | Dec 18 2022 18:55 utc | 67
I think this war is much more then conflict between Russia and The West. It is a conflict between two philosophies. The West adores the power of the individual, the power of individual will. They think that individual will can defeat biology, physics, history… “You can be everything”, that is promised by protestant modern preachers. This is a typical psychopathic vision, ego centered world.Posted by: Kerensky | Dec 18 2022 17:56 utc | 55
Not sure about that, it has been my observation that getting Russians to voluntarily co-operate is like herding cats. They will only do so if threatened, hence the focus of Putin's internal messages.
Here in Canada, the Russian diaspora that I have met are individuals, there is no collective political and economic force. The Ukrainian diaspora on the other hand...
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 18 2022 19:01 utc | 69
Russia winning the war. that opinion will get you barred on some sites. if they were not winning, that would not happen.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 18 2022 14:19 utc | 14
Talk about Occams razor. Same with nordstream2, If Russia actually did it they would be screaming about it 247....and we have crickets
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Dec 18 2022 19:02 utc | 70
Looks like USA has decided where to make their move, namely Serbia / Kosovo. This thing was set up already in early August but got postponed till now.
https://www.rt.com/news/568467-kfor-nato-exercise-kosovo/
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:07 utc | 71
re:OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58 et al etc.
"should've , could've, would've." is tedious and pathetic.
100% agree with you Anthony | Dec 18 2022 18:11 utc | 57
Posted by: HOBO 3 | Dec 18 2022 19:07 utc | 72
re:OdessaConnected | Dec 18 2022 18:17 utc | 58 et al etc.
"should've , could've, would've." is tedious and pathetic.
100% agree with you Anthony | Dec 18 2022 18:11 utc | 57
Posted by: HOBO 3 | Dec 18 2022 19:07 utc | 73
If Russia decapitated Ukraine day one kalibrating Elensky, all his goons and anyone associated with them cutting diplomacy to zero. Destroyed their energy infrastructure beyond repair day two (generators too, not just nodes). Then executed massive drone strikes on fortifications for couple weeks. We would be in healing process right now, western idiots would still be recovering from the shock they wouldnt even have gone the sanctions route if Ukraine fell in couple weeks. Instead you will get a fifth column aka Kremlin serving Russian nation on a platter after its exhausted in this new Khazaria project. Stay calm, call me troll. Hakuna matata.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1
No. Sanctions would have been placed regardless. The whole purpose of provoking Russia was an excuse to get Europe to sanction Russia and eliminate the source of cheap energy
Here's one article that predicted this
America's real enemy is Europe not Russia
Also search, "Garland Nixon" on youtube. Good podcast.
Besides that, yes, paraphrasing Marvel movies, Russia should have gone for the head.
But don't worry, paraphrasing Marvel movies again, Russia will kill the NATO Ukra-Nazi monster properly this time.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Dec 18 2022 19:10 utc | 74
@70 russia is not winning, neither is ukraine. Looks like the US, again, is coming up roses in yet another Eurasian war.
Was just reading on iran russia trade ties, growing now, but man the mistrust between the two is illogical. Surely they could understand this, but Russia only looks to sell Iran out whenever possible.
Now China and Russia are being cagey. Sure trade is strong but only because China holds the high cards and Russia has no choice.
Whatever complaints about American culture one can have, you must be impressed at their strategic power mongering, and mind fucking.
Like it's so obvious the US keeps pitting groups in a classic divide and conquer strategy...but it keeps working?
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 19:10 utc | 75
@Down South (4) "According to the latest information from local Ukrainian residents, Ukrainian Air Force fighters with American AGM-88 HARM missiles once again took off from the Mirgorod air base in the Poltava region, which is located just 150 kilometres from the border with the Belgorod region."
Here's a thought: How about Russia shoots down every aircraft that takes off from Mirgorod while it's still over Ukrainian air space? It might not stop all attacks on Belgorod, but it would force them to originate from more distant bases, thus giving Russia more time to intercept the missiles.
Posted by: Rob | Dec 18 2022 19:13 utc | 76
Posted by: Rob | Dec 18 2022 19:13 utc | 76
Last time Ukies sent two fighters (an SU-24 and Mig-29) from Mirgorod. They made a low speed approach towards Belgorod, made a quick dash to 3000-5000m to launch their anti radiation missiles, then they went back to low altitude in order to fly back to Mirgorod. Russian AWACS directed S-300 missiles which dropped the fighters near the airfield from a distance of 215km.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:17 utc | 77
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Dec 18 2022 19:10 utc | 74
Garland Nixon is good listen, i saw him on the Duran. Maybe if Russia shows something before snows melt ill have more optimism, but as of right now i smell rats in Kremlin. Im disgusted at whats happening as a whole. So many Slavs are getting killed.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 19:18 utc | 78
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:17 utc | 77
low speed = low altitude.
Also, the Pantsir point defense systems can shoot down the AGM-88 missiles and there have been wrecks on the ground showing it.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2022 19:19 utc | 79
Reconquest of Crimea has started – ZelenskyThough no operation is underway, the process of seizing the territory from Russia has kicked off in people’s heads,the Nazi leader argues
Ukrainians are now psychologically ready to retake the Crimean Peninsula from Russia by force, President Vladimir Zelensky told French broadcaster TF1 in an interview on Sunday. "The Reconquest" of Crimea has supposedly already started in Ukrainians’ heads, the president claimed, hinting that he could visit the "de-occupied" peninsula as early as 2023.
"When it(re conquest) starts, you will definitely hear about it," he told TF1, adding that he personally believes "the reconquest of Crimea has started in people’s heads, and that’s very important."
According to Zelensky, it was not enough for Kiev to just repeatedly state that the peninsula is a part of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine should be ready to retake it by force, he said, adding that Russia would hardly give up on it.
One should be ready and go [to Crimea]," Zelensky said. "No one would just surrender Crimea for no particular reason. Reconquest always starts with society: with its will and readiness. I believe the start has been made," the president explained.
Zelensky didn't provide any details about the timing of the purported operation but said that he "loves Crimea" and would be "glad to come to our de-occupied Crimea," adding that it would be "nice" to get there in summer 2023.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/25434
Posted by: Down South | Dec 18 2022 19:23 utc | 80
"We have returned to the world of Galileo vs the Vatican. Scientific dissidents are again silenced and ostracised for their opinions"
from https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2022/12/galileo-vs-the-vatican/
Is this event taught in all schools?
If so, how did the lesson disappear after geaduation"? Was it mis-taught?
If not, who or what decided it was bot part of "education"?
Education, from its original purpose, means "to lead out". Is that not helpful? Who or what would be afraid of it?
Posted by: chu teh | Dec 18 2022 19:28 utc | 81
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1
Your last sentence is incorrect everything else is correct however you do not have access to the reasons why.
The reasons are external and by external I mean external to this planet and I certainly don't mean GW. Ponder that and it may provide you with some answers.
Posted by: Mischievous Imp | Dec 18 2022 19:29 utc | 82
"..Here in Canada, the Russian diaspora that I have met are individuals, there is no collective political and economic force. The Ukrainian diaspora on the other hand..." Opport Knocks@69
They are quite different animals-most of the Russian exiles one meets in Canada are on the make, many of them 'on the lam'.
The Ukrainians, for the most part, are highly organised by the descendants of the OUN/Waffen SS welcomed here by successive post war governments. Not only are they 'taking refuge' from Russia but they are very much at the mercy of the Ukrainian organisations directing them.
Posted by: bevin | Dec 18 2022 19:30 utc | 83
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 18:35 utc | 64
Im brushing his nonsense off without any issues and addressing his valid points where they present themselves, you cheerleaders are not reinforcing any of his arguments or adding anything. I started posting recently because comment section had become a Kremlin fanboy circlejerk and i thought ill throw my pro Russian but anti Kremlin stance into the mix here and there, immediately triggered the gang. Dont like it? I dont care, you will just have to deal with it.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 19:30 utc | 84
@ Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 19:10 utc | 75
Now China and Russia are being cagey. Sure, trade is strong but only because China holds the high cards and Russia has no choice.
Well, one can argue with that. Russia also has a choice as they have something nobody has at good prices and in abundance. Talking about natural resources, also technological, Russians are far more needed by Chinese than it is the other way around to the certain point. And they do have a common enemy anyway, so it is not all black and white in this relation.
Like it's so obvious the US keeps pitting groups in a classic divide and conquer strategy...but it keeps working?
There is an Arabic/African saying:
"A pot goes to a well until broken."
We witness the 'breaking of a pot', and the well is still going to be there for some time.
Russia and China made some wrong moves and a too late decisions in the last 20 years, but USA, UK, and EU earned Ph.D. in making the bad decisions and bad moves in less than 10 years.
And while at it, they took their own population to a despair and poverty.
I do not see Russians or Chinese suffering at the level of millions of imprisoned, homeless, hungry and poor with no health insurance in the USA.
Posted by: whirlX | Dec 18 2022 19:35 utc | 85
Like it's so obvious the US keeps pitting groups in a classic divide and conquer strategy...but it keeps working?Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 19:10 utc | 75
It keeps "working" because of fear. When I come across publications of the changes in trade relations with Russia among non-western nations, the consistent trend is fear (of secandary sanctions), not some irrational dislike of Russia and certainly not some false sense of moral superiority and virtue signaling over the special military operation.
The US still controls most of the world trade and any nation, financial institution or a private entity will naturally look out for their own interests by being careful over their dealing with Russia given the possibility of being cancelled into oblivion.
There's a word for it. It's called tyranny.
As for some false sense of moral obligation to hurt Russia over Ukraine?
If that's the expectation prepared to be disappointed.
The Global South is well aware of how many countries the US bombed or overthrew democratically elected or populist governments and with pretexts that are PROVEN to be farcical lies. They don't care about Ukraine, nor do they believe the Russophobic propaganda.
One day, the world will be completely free of the US tyranny That Russia is atill standing after a wipe out with sanctions is a testament to how much progress has been made towards that end the past decade. But that day is still yet to come. And it will come, soon enough.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Dec 18 2022 19:36 utc | 86
100,000 Ukrainians KIA?
A Spanish blogger has analyzed the reports on Ukrainian dead.
Ukraine 2022 loss reports: 100,000 dead
The most reliable estimates are 100,000 dead. This number consists of 60,000 published obituaries and some 38,000 missing in action.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 19:36 utc | 87
@82
Tell me more about extra terrestrial factions fighting through proxies on earth please.
It's a real black hole of information, pun intended, but worth pursuing given the highly confusing situations we find ourselves in.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 18 2022 19:43 utc | 88
In addition to Belgorod, 4 waves of strikes on Donetsk today. A hospital was hit, one pacient died, others injured. Another day of great strategy work from general Baldie.
Posted by: rk | Dec 18 2022 19:47 utc | 89
james | Dec 18 2022 18:56 utc | 68
sean au changed his name... oh well..
_____
Sounds about right, someone apparently afflicted with hypergraphia, overinflated ego, and an obsessive compulsion to be right owing to unassailable expertise in all things -- regardless of contrary evidence. Following Arch Bungle's several effective takedowns, someone to ignore.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 19:51 utc | 90
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 18:55 utc | 66
Too long for continued interest, too confused for analysis, too prejudiced for belief.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Dec 18 2022 19:53 utc | 91
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 19:36 utc | 87
I had seen this on another forum
the odd thing seems to be the distribution by oblast with Poltava having a loss rate of 12.56 per million 2021 inhabitants while Sumy has lost 0.35 per million
The Spanish language blogger mentions that this is sourced from public obituaries and that this may be distorted by local ukrop media - some oblasts may be more open than others?
Posted by: Aslangeo | Dec 18 2022 19:53 utc | 92
"when asked about Kiev’s plans for Crimea. "When it starts, you will definitely hear about it," he told TF1, adding that he personally believes "the reconquest of Crimea has started in people’s heads, and that’s very important."
One more proof this war is about land, ukrainian conquest, and that ukrainians want it.
Posted by: Vikichka | Dec 18 2022 19:54 utc | 93
Down South 80.
I'll take a guess at what's in most Ukrainian's heads: 'When does the water pressure return so I can flush the toilet and when will the power come back.' 'What happened to my son, husband, father, brother etc who I haven't heard from since summer?' 'Hope the SBU doesn't come after me after that last post.' 'How do I get out of this country alive?' Also guessing that what's in Zelensky's head is a lot of psychoactive chemicals.
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 18 2022 19:57 utc | 94
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 19:36 utc | 87
Also the map in this post shows that Kiev City , Kherson Oblast and Chernigov had no data. Kherson was overrun quickly at the start of the war so few men would have been conscripted there but Kiev City had just under 3 million people and Chernigov had just under a million - both these areas were not occupied and therefore conscription could take place
Posted by: Aslangeo | Dec 18 2022 19:57 utc | 95
"Dont like it? I dont care, you will just have to deal with it."
experienced | Dec 18 2022 19:30 utc | 84
____
Better still, simply ignore it hereinafter as background noise. You've effectively discredited yourself.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 19:59 utc | 96
Rob | Dec 18 2022 19:13 utc | 76
They claim the missiles were intercepted and that falling parts were responsible for deaths of people and destruction in Belgorod region. Ukr keeps receiving airplanes, they have enough available and more will arrive, so such strikes will continue because they also still have many airports. For some unknown reason cars, trains and airports are working in Ukr, there's not even a little fuel shortage. Anyone knows Abramovich's email? Maybe he can explain.
Posted by: rk | Dec 18 2022 20:07 utc | 97
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 19:59 utc | 96
Oh no how will i survive without credibility from Doug the anonymous guy on internet? Im totally going to 180 and join the circlejerk to be part of the Kremlin boys. Anyway im done for the day, Kiev doesnt pay me enough to keep refreshing all day. But ill be back tomorrow honey, i promise.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 20:10 utc | 98
Posted by: gengivone | Dec 18 2022 20:01 utc | 97
Yeah, sure. They will be marching on Moscow soon, Crimea is first. Didnt you hear Zelensky? Its in their minds already!
Posted by: alek_a | Dec 18 2022 20:10 utc | 99
@ Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2022 19:36 utc | 87
thanks petri... good article using the translator..
@ Doug Hillman | Dec 18 2022 19:59 utc | 96
yes.. even if it isn't our aussie friend, it walks, talks and posts the same way..arrogance is a strange beast..
Posted by: james | Dec 18 2022 20:11 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
If Russia decapitated Ukraine day one kalibrating Elensky, all his goons and anyone associated with them cutting diplomacy to zero. Destroyed their energy infrastructure beyond repair day two (generators too, not just nodes). Then executed massive drone strikes on fortifications for couple weeks. We would be in healing process right now, western idiots would still be recovering from the shock they wouldnt even have gone the sanctions route if Ukraine fell in couple weeks. Instead you will get a fifth column aka Kremlin serving Russian nation on a platter after its exhausted in this new Khazaria project. Stay calm, call me troll. Hakuna matata.
Posted by: experienced | Dec 18 2022 13:24 utc | 1