Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 08, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-220

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on December 8, 2022 at 15:51 UTC | Permalink

« previous page | next page »

Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 2:08 utc | 206

The EU is doomed through its own stupidity. Every set of sanctions they put on themselves speaks volumes.

The US is in real danger of financial collapse. Xi and MBS are making sure that when this happens they are not ruined ?

Everybody just needs to calm down. The Empire is teetering its various parts ready to fly apart. No grand battles needed. Just patience and steady pressure.

A Tit for Tat response like the IDF to the Palestinians, you send 3 missiles at us we send 30 back (I reckon this has been happening for a while) might work.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 9 2022 2:59 utc | 201

Other comments about what Lavrov had to say and what I think is actually important now:

SeanAU | Dec 8 2022 2:45 utc | 143 ( Intro - Helmer and Australian perspective)
SeanAU | Dec 8 2022 6:59 utc | 168 ( What Merkle said about her lying to Putin)
SeanAU | Dec 8 2022 7:14 utc | 170 ( I said to Karl - An excellent comment all of it.)
SeanAU | Dec 8 2022 7:39 utc | 175 ( Lavrov still living in a fantasy bubble)
SeanAU | Dec 8 2022 8:19 utc | 181 ( more from Lavrov)

SeanAU | Dec 8 2022 20:52 utc | 269
SeanAU | Dec 8 2022 22:19 utc | 273

Lavrovs speech in Russia

NOT Posted by me: Sean AU | Dec 8 2022 22:49 utc | 275 = Sockpuppet fraud.

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 3:04 utc | 202

@Do Bacon 213

The Western Media is largely owned and fully controlled by the same oligarchs as own and control everything else in the West, particularly every part of government. The media exists primarily to disseminate their propaganda and because of that, access to their media is as tightly controlled, as the domain of what may (and may not) be discussed.

So how is anyone, irrespective of competence, opposed to their propaganda supposed to have their perspectives disseminated by the OMM (Oligarch Managed Media)? When you can answer that, might be time enough to discuss your vapid, error based kindergarten level criticism of one of the few statesmen of the 21st century.

Posted by: Hermit | Dec 9 2022 3:05 utc | 203

from Almaydeen
Merkel: Minsk agreements were meant to 'give Ukraine time'
German ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel reveals that in 2014, the Minsk agreements aimed to give Ukraine time to get stronger and for NATO to increase its support to the country in the face of Russia.
Merkel said "The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine. It also used this time to become stronger as can be seen today. The Ukraine of 2014-2015 is not the modern Ukraine."
According to her, "it was clear to everyone" that the conflict had been put on hold, noting that the issue had not been settled, "yet this was what gave Ukraine invaluable time." 
She voiced doubt that NATO states could not have supported Kiev to the level that they do today at the time. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 9 2022 3:15 utc | 204

@Hermit | Dec 9 2022 3:05 utc | 225
So how is anyone, irrespective of competence, opposed to their propaganda supposed to have their perspectives disseminated by the OMM (Oligarch Managed Media)?
Have you read any of Lavrov's speeches (in Russian) where he tried to get his views published, was rebuffed, and complained about it?
Did he ever speak about it in English, the universal language?
Go ahead and link to it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 9 2022 3:29 utc | 205

... One point five million jews killed in Ukraine. One quarter of the European genocide.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 8 2022 23:10 utc | 137

Sorry... mathematical impossibility. The global jewish population after the war was higher than before, according to the World Almanac, then a jewish publication. If you do the math and allow for a "natural" population growth rate of 1% to 1.2% per year, the number of excess deaths were somewhere between 600,000 and 1 million. Obviously not all of those were in forced labor camps or local exterminations.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 9 2022 3:32 utc | 206

@fanto | Dec 9 2022 2:45 utc | 221

No wunderwaffe, but a suicidal approach where US and WEF are prepared to burn down the barn to escape blame for the comming financial armageddon. Nothing better than having a real armageddon to smooth over a financial one.

Posted by: Metallist | Dec 9 2022 3:35 utc | 207

Does anyone know the status of the Kinburn split?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 9 2022 2:27 utc | 215

It is still made from the sand/silt deposited when the flow of the Dnieper River meets the littoral currents of the Black Sea.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 9 2022 3:40 utc | 208

"What of those 340,000 Ukie soldiers who never call home??"

See, thats when you are Jade Helming bigtime again. 340 000 dead ukrainians, and nobody noticed? You are making up numbers. Just saying.

Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 19:48 utc | 62

The 340,000 was from a petition by women who say their loved ones are not writing or calling. So it is being said in a context where "somebody noticed".

Posted by: Simon | Dec 9 2022 3:40 utc | 209

@ Bill Smith 167

A moving system (like a missile) can use inertial guidance to determine it's location. Before GPS came along, this was how things were done.

A short range radar guided missile (either its own or another) doesn't need a very "tight" inertial guidance. It relies on the radar returns, and inertial guidance is for dropouts, jamming attempts, etc.

Short range laser guided missiles need tighter IG because there is a greater chance of dropout, for various reasons.

I use to word tight, which really means the drift rate of the sensor package combined with software.

Drift rate, from
In many modern inertial navigation systems, such as those used on commercial jetliners, booster rockets, and orbiting satellites, the turning rates are measured by ring laser gyroscopes or by fibre-optic gyroscopes. Minute errors in the measuring capabilities of the accelerometers or in the balance of the gyroscopes can introduce large errors into the information that the inertial guidance system provides. These instruments must, therefore, be constructed and maintained to strict tolerances, carefully aligned, and reinitialized at frequent intervals using an independent navigation system such as the global positioning system (GPS).

The longer the flight of a missile is, the more the drift rate effects its IG. If you go 1000km, even a tight drift rate keeps you is a very large probable impact area.

Combining GPS with IG provides the best results. Neither are perfect, but the two strengths balance each other out.

Why would NATO use GLONASS, a Russian system for guidance?

Lots of other details that can effect ultimate accuracy.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Dec 9 2022 3:40 utc | 210

@rhoro | Dec 8 2022 17:16 utc | 25

If 320k are really missing then who is keeping Russian forces stuck far from Donbass borders these days? Or why did then run from Kherson if Ukr has in the range of 300k "missing"?

Besides "they didn't lose that much" another possibility is "they mobilized a lot more than the amount they lost".

Posted by: Simon | Dec 9 2022 3:43 utc | 211

SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 1:28 utc | 190

Methinks thou dost protest too much

Posted by: Cyberhorse | Dec 9 2022 3:53 utc | 212

@ Metallist | Dec 9 2022 3:35 utc | 229

Thanks Metallist for your anwser; it 'calms me down', because this suicidal action of the West will not succeed in this form - and Russia is preparing to counter any affixing of blame for a cataclysmic event, finally. Putin recently was even shown in the West (PBS evening news) stating that Russia would use nukes only if attacked. This kind of PR will be used more in future, and it was especially important after the three attacks on the airport deep in Russia. I admire this kind of response, it puts West's aggression on full display. So, some kind of 'wunderwaffe' it is not, and that is reassuring; the western oligarchs will not play the game of chicken too long. Their comfortable life would otherwise not be comfortable anymore.

Posted by: fanto | Dec 9 2022 3:59 utc | 213

@KLATU 183

I understand that.

Who I am trying to get through are eventually the "normal" people who are in fear because they believe what "experts" say, not out of stupidity but simply because they are not political folks and won´t spend time questioning the MSM surrounding them.

They want sound explanations.
Like my Mum.

They have kids, they have jobs, they have free-time, they want a normal life.
And they decide elections.

If you don´t deliver them a sound explanation that will prove to them why NATO poses a grave danger they will simply go the other way. And why blame them?

However if you manage to convince them with proper transparent arguments, there is something to be gained.

It would be "our" job to collect those arguments and put them out there.

(sry for being so naive...)

Posted by: AG | Dec 9 2022 4:05 utc | 214

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 1:02 utc | 182

Give enough rope to hang themselves or something like that. You have really proved that tonight. If you can’t see that Lavrov is a diplomat that will remembered for ages to come(if there are ages to come), you are blind.

What a display.

Posted by: dust | Dec 9 2022 4:20 utc | 215

@ Uwe | Dec 9 2022 1:32 utc | 191

thanks uwe.. i appreciate the update and perspective as i know you are based in germany.. thanks..


bacon fat and sean au agree.... james disagrees with both of them and their myopic view of lavrov or their understanding of how the corporate media works in the world today...

Posted by: james | Dec 9 2022 4:29 utc | 216

AG | Dec 9 2022 4:05 utc | 238

No apologies required. You want a better world. I understand.

The propaganda is so strong it is hard to break the programming. Best approach maybe to concentrate on how stupid your rulers are. Keep saying that until they lose confidence in their government. In 2 months time this will be easy.

The EU is nervous. Ursula looks very uncomfortable these days and for good reason as she is steering the boat over a waterfall.

Good luck.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 9 2022 4:42 utc | 217

Several comments talk about Merkel and her deceptive policy vis-a-vis Russia re. Ukraine; It occurs to me that Putin and Russians got again 'gaslighted' by the West, for the second time , first time with verbal promises that there will be no East Expansion of NATO - given to Gorbatschov by Bush (the Elder) and in 2014 by Merkel and company - in writing! That must be galling to Russians. And Thousands of people died, many more wounded, millions made homeless - for those false promises, it is mind boggling.

Posted by: fanto | Dec 9 2022 4:54 utc | 218

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 8 Dec 2022⚡️


▪️ A Black Sea Fleet patrol ship shot down an AFU drone over the sea in the morning.

▪️ Russia's FSB has detained two residents of #Sevastopol on suspicion of passing information on military facilities to the SBU.

♦️#Belgorod Region:

▪️ Ukrainian formations shelled Yakovlevsky urban district. Shell splinters damaged power lines and a fire broke out at the arrival site. Civilians were not injured.

♦️#Starobelsk Direction:

▪️ In the #Lyman area, AFU units launched an offensive in the direction of #Chervonopopovka. Intense artillery fire drove the enemy to its initial positions.

▪️ Artillery duels continue along the entire contact line: Russian artillery struck concentrations of Ukrainian formations in #Krakhmalnoye, #Berestovoye, #Stelmakhovka and #Makeyevka.

♦️#Soledar Direction:

▪️ In the #Soledar area, Wagner PMC units continue the cleansing of #Yakovlevka. The capture of the settlement will enable the advance towards #Soledar from the northeast.

▪️ In the #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk) sector, fighting continues in #Opytnoye and in the southeastern outskirts of #Bakhmut.

The Ukrainian command is redeploying additional units, including foreign mercenaries, to the area to compensate for the losses incurred.

♦️#Lugansk People's Republic:

▪️ Ukrainian militants fired HIMARS rockets at the town of #Pervomaysk. Residential buildings, two petrol stations and underground power supply lines were hit.

▪️ In the afternoon, enemy militants shelled #Rubezhnoye with gun artillery, damaging three residential buildings and commercial units.

♦️#Donetsk Direction:

▪️ Position fighting will continue in the centre of #Maryinka. Russian forces hit concentrations of armoured vehicles and AFU personnel in the western part of the city.

▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled civilian facilities in #Donetsk, #Yasynuvata, #Mineralnoye, #Gorlovka, #Seyatel and other settlements in the agglomeration with barrel and rocket artillery.

♦️#Kherson Direction on Southern Front:

▪️ Russian missile forces and artillery hit enemy personnel concentrations in #Antonovka, #Kachkarovka, #Inzhenernoye, #Berislav and Zolotaya Balka.

▪️ Enemy militants of the AFU fired mortars at residential buildings in #Tavriysk, Golaya Pristan and #Kakhovka.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 4:57 utc | 219

The Svatovo direction became so active, complex and informationally "attractive" because it has the attention of many media sources. One of the main reasons is that an active involvement of mobilised RF citizens precisely takes place in this direction.

That's a true fact that there are many mobilized there. Some are fulfilling combat tasks directly on the front line, the majority is still at some distance from the front lines (which does not exclude the risks of artillery fire, as the enemy shoots far and accurately). Regarding the mobilized men, we have seen both positive things (many guys are well dressed, well armed, commanders are aware of the situation, the mood is combative), and negative ones (in some units there is management chaos, irregular supply, complete absence of communication, low motivation of personnel). According to our subjective observations, there are more good than bad issues.

But some cases of negligence and idiocy are simply blatant. For example, we know of a situation in which several military personnel froze to death when frosts came. For the 9th month of the SMO, after all the possible mistakes were made already. The LNR soldiers know by themselves what it takes to ford a river swimming in February while freezing temperature, then march about 30 km in summer shoes... That made them lose whole companies to pneumonia. Such situations are unacceptable. 

Against this background we want to draw special attention to humanitarian aid: people are doing a great job, they bring things from all over Russia. And it is very unpleasant to read when someone is trying to smear humanitarian workers. Short-sighted people simply do not understand or deliberately harm by saying such things. 

On the military side, the situation is difficult. The enemy is constantly probing the defenses. Enemy artillery poses a very serious threat. In Svatovo itself, practically any large buildings in which, in the opinion of the Ukrainians, the military could be housed, have been spot-cleared. But the front is firmly in place at the moment. Moreover, our guys have made several small but successful advances in the past week.

And another interesting topic that should be mentioned: enormous work is being done to build defensive lines. Huge convoys of equipment are bringing in materials, hundreds of people are working on quite a wide area - the scale is impressive.

But we note with regret that the workers who take part in this construction site are taking serious risks. Recently there have been casualties among civilian construction workers and truck drivers as a result of artillery fire. People deserve awards and encouragement because they are doing difficult and dangerous work for the good of the homeland.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 4:59 utc | 220

Regarding the talk of Ukraine's retreat from Artemovsk :

At the moment, the level of losses in Artemivsk is higher than during the battles for Severodonetsk and Lisichansk (about 10-11,000 dead in total).

Hence the name "Artemovsk meat grinder." However, despite all the whining about the losses, the Ukrainian Army's command continues to transfer reinforcements to Artemovsk, Opytne, Kleshcheevka, and Chasov Yar to compensate for the losses incurred and maintain the integrity of the front. For its part, the Russian Armed Forces seek to ensure the maximum cost to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for such a situation by realising artillery superiority. 

Of course, as in the case of Severodonetsk, Zelensky's gang may later claim that Artemovsk is no longer so important, laying straws in advance. But in fact, Artemovsk is one of the key cities in Donbass, whose loss will have serious operational consequences for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, so Artemovsk alone will not be enough for the retreat, hence the insistence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 5:03 utc | 221

‼️🇷🇺Russian troops have now completed an almost continuous trench system along 60km between Svatovo in Luhansk Region and the Russian border- British Intelligence

We are talking about the trench system located between Svatovo and the Russian border. Units of the 1st Guards Tank Army of the Russian Federation have also been moved into the area of Svatovo, according to a British Ministry of Defense report.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 5:04 utc | 222

Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 8 2022 22:09 utc | 116

Gavrilov: the facts say that NATO had a hand in Kyiv's attacks on Russian airfields

Gavrilov, the head of the delegation in Vienna on military security issues, said that NATO members had a hand in Kyiv's provocations against Russian airfields, the facts indicate this. According to him, the drone used to attempt to strike at airfields was modernized with the participation of a corporation from the United States, and GPS was used for guidance.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 5:09 utc | 223

The Minsk agreements were negotiated between Kiev and the breakaway regions of Lugansk and Donetsk with two variants in 2014 and 2015. In essence they agreed to a ceasefire and the start of negotiations on some form of autonomy for Lugansk and Donetsk inside the borders of Ukraine. The second version had big involvement by France (President Hollande) and Germany (Chancellor Angela Merkel) – they were its guarantors. Russia’s role was to force Lugansk and Donetsk to the table (they would have preferred independence or joining Russia.) The agreements never took effect.

Kiev never pretended to try and then-President Poroshenko has recently admitted that Kiev only saw it as a mechanism to buy time and Donetsk and Lugansk could “hole up in basements“. Western consumers/dupes of their media would only have heard of it in the context of “In Ukraine, we have maintained an effort under Ambassador Kurt Volker to provide the means by which Russia can live up to its commitments under the Minsk Agreements.”

More lies – Russia had no commitments in the agreement, the obligations were entirely on the part of Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk. Russia delivered the latter two to the signing table and France and Germany were supposed to deliver the first. Had the agreements been lived up to – had France and Germany pressured Ukraine – Kievans would be cooking their meals in lighted rooms after a hot shower and sleeping in their own beds. Thousands of people would be alive and healthy today.

Putin recently told a group of soldiers’ mothers “In hindsight, we are all smart, of course, but we believed that we would manage to come to terms, and Lugansk and Donetsk would be able to reunify with Ukraine somehow under the agreements – the Minsk agreements… We were sincerely moving towards this.”

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 5:13 utc | 224

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 20:12 utc | 74

Can you write complete sentences?

Ignore the retards, Patrokolos. I skip over every post harry hash-head writes automatically. It's easy once you master that skill ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2022 5:18 utc | 225

Brian Berletic and The New Atlas:
Mark Sleboda: Russia-Ukraine SITREP, Missiles & What Comes Next

Nothing terribly new, but good to hear. Brian and Mark Sleboda's usual sober look at the bigger picture - Ukraine's lost opportunities, hopeless position; Russia's mistakes but advantageous strategic position. Loss of US/NATO strategic depth regarding munitions supplies vs. Russia which can pump out shells forever. Logistics, etc. Missile strikes inside Russia. Mark says what I felt was true all along: Russian strikes on Ukraine shortly after were not retaliatory, but just part of the pre-planned daily strikes. Russian strikes also targeted Zaporizhzhia Transformer (ZTE), a huge supplier for Ukraine and eastern Europe. Also hit Krivoy Rog's diesel locomotive works. Russian winter offensive.

Just over an hour, but (IMO) worth it if you've not been watching Ukraine day-by-day and want the current overall view. I had to view it in chunks, but recommend the whole thing.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 9 2022 5:31 utc | 226

@Klaatu 104

The Ukraine nationalized the Ukrainian factory (Zaporozhtransformator) that used to manufacture power transformers for the Soviet Union in November. It is currently without power, and in the future, it is almost certainly going to be recovered by Russia along with the balance of the Zaporozhye Oblast. As power transformers contain laminations produced by special metallurgical processes, and today, aside from Zaporozhye Transformer Plant, these alloys are only produced in factories in Russia, China and the Koreas, with a lead time of years, even when not buried in orders because of war, despite the USSR having always ordered and stored standby units for use if the main transformers were damaged by an EMP (and for HT transformers they were ordered in groups of six, three primary transformers to be placed in service, one for each phase, and three backup units to be carefully wrapped and buried in Faraday cage storage tanks next to the installation). Even if the back-ups had not been sold to recyclers for their valuable metal content, which was very likely the case in the Ukraine, by now they must be running very scarce indeed.

PS The USA has not produced high-power transformers since the 1980s, or the special grades of alloy needed since the 1970s, and ot is unlikely that the experts or even the records of the companies that used to do this still remain available. Which probably will be a major factor in the deindustrialization of the USA, consequent to a failure cascade whether caused by nature, civil unrest or war (the Congressional Research Bureau recently estimated that 6 EMP devices, and no other hostilities, detonated over the continental USA, would result in the death of over 95% of Americans within a year).

Posted by: Hermit | Dec 9 2022 5:40 utc | 227

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 5:29 utc | 250

Usually when someone has a valid point it doesn’t take a bunch of words/comments to explain it. Don’t disagree with some of your points, just sets off alarm bells when someone uses so many words to explain them.

If I’m wrong. Apologies…

Posted by: dust | Dec 9 2022 5:41 utc | 228

I have been reading MoA for years, but lately I have been getting bored with it because it’s worth has gone down with the flood of trolls and people fighting with them. Trolls won’t change their minds no matter what anyone says to them because they aren’t here to learn anything because their goal is just to disrupt the conversation so why bother responding to them?

But I’m bored too because the quality of the news has gone down. Where are the ground breaking stories that b used to bring the bar? It’s mostly open threads that just become boring spats with the trolls.

There are lots of well informed people who comment here and I appreciate their knowledge of things I don’t know so I thank them for that. But can you just ignore the trolls? They will get no satisfaction if people do that.

Posted by: Sam | Dec 9 2022 5:49 utc | 229

My main pov is not about who is winning the Ukraine war or the propaganda, but that Russia got itself into this spot to begin with .... by playing their silly games with the USA all along. They have allowed the USA and NATO, and Merkle et al to walk all over them since Putin came to power (and before.)
Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 2:45 utc | 220

Your immaturity continues to shine through with that obviously limited view
of how power really works in a world-around historical context.

You may become a better teacher some day when you have become a more accomplished learner.
Until then your rantings and pontifications are easily scrolled by.

It truly is a shame that 'youth' is wasted on the young.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Dec 9 2022 5:50 utc | 230

@at u know who

Last comment and sorry for taking up this much space, but the person in reference just hung themself. Tried to give u the benefit of the doubt, again, but the other poster is right. This squabbling is not what this place is about.

Posted by: dust | Dec 9 2022 6:08 utc | 231

Shopping mall on fire outside Moscow. Started in the home improvement store. Explosions possibly from paint department.

Posted by: HelenB | Dec 9 2022 6:22 utc | 232

I notice now that there was also one on November 30.

"Fire breaks out at shopping mall in Siberia’s Krasnoyarsk — rescuers

KRASNOYARSK, November 30. /TASS/. A major fire broke out at a shopping mall in the southeastern Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk in the early hours of Wednesday, the regional emergencies ministry ...

Posted by: HelenB | Dec 9 2022 6:28 utc | 233

@Jack Gordon | Dec 9 2022 1:21 utc | 189

The smart but perhaps less sexy strategy is to sit back and let Kiev depopulate its territory through mass emigration to the West and wholesale slaughter by artillery in the east of its own country. This will create a natural buffer zone between Russia and unfriendly states in Europe.
Indeed, that is probably close to the real strategy.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 9 2022 7:03 utc | 234

NY Times video replay of the prisoner swap between Griner and Bout skipped over the moment they walked past each other. That’s significant. Anyone see the actual moment itself? What happened?

Posted by: Norogene | Dec 9 2022 7:10 utc | 235

Speech and answers to the questions of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov at the international forum "Primakov Readings", Moscow, December 7, 2022

About one third down the page -

As promised I would do -

We are undergoing a reorientation of our foreign policy and foreign economic activity. It is obvious. We no longer want to be under the illusion that the West, which has proved its complete unreliability, non-negotiability and deceit, will conscientiously participate in the processes and mechanisms of globalization that it itself has created.

And also he will not abuse them rudely and shamelessly, as happens with the dollar, the euro, with the international monetary and financial system, with the blocked activities of the WTO. Perhaps American-style globalization is over. Yes, some residual processes will inevitably have to be experienced.

In parallel, a new financial and logistical system is being built, which should not depend on the whims and feelings of superiority of our former Western colleagues. We have real partners. These are BRICS, SCO, EAEU, CIS. And the CSTO is an important mechanism that contributes to ensuring security in its part of the post-Soviet space.

My understanding of that is this:

- To "no longer want to be under the illusion" means (unsaid) that before the present time Russia "was under the illusion" "that the West [...] will conscientiously participate in the processes and mechanisms of globalization that it itself has created."

- Today Russia now knows that the West/US "has proved its complete unreliability, non-negotiability and deceit" beyond all doubt.

- Before now, Russia thought otherwise.

- Russia only now considers the leaders/officials from the West/US are no longer their "colleagues"

- Before now they had been considered as "colleagues" - where they were always referred to as colleagues and/or partners by Lavrov and Putin especially.

- Today Russia feels "We have real partners."

- Before today the West/US were not "real partners."

- Currently Russia is now working to create a new international monetary and financial system / a new financial and logistical system (with partners) which is only now "being built" and not yet completed.

- Noting Putin and Lavrov have been in their positions for over 20 years.

- Lavrov's speech denotes a significant change of epic proportions in Russian geopolitics and policy.

- Lavrov's speech overall simultaneously signifies a major admission of serious errors in it's previous "illusory" understanding of Russia's relationship with the West/US.

--- ---

Russian original from the website:
У нас проходят переориентации нашей внешнеполитической и внешнеэкономической деятельности. Это очевидно. Больше не хотим оставаться в иллюзиях, что доказавший свою полную ненадёжность, недоговороспособность и лживость Запад, будет добросовестно участвовать в тех процессах и механизмах глобализации, которые он сам создал. А также он не будет ими грубо и беспардонно злоупотреблять, как это происходит с долларом, евро, с международной валютно-финансовой системой, с заблокированной деятельностью ВТО. Наверное, глобализация по-американски закончилась. Да, какие-то остаточные процессы неизбежно придётся ещё пережить. Параллельно выстраивается новая финансовая и логистическая система, которая не должна зависеть от причуд и от чувства собственного превосходства наших бывших западных коллег. У нас настоящие партнёры есть. Это БРИКС, ШОС, ЕАЭС, СНГ. И ОДКБ является важным механизмом, который вносит вклад в обеспечение безопасности на территории своей части постсоветского пространства.

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 7:14 utc | 236

@PavewayIV | Dec 9 2022 1:42 utc | 196

abrogard | Dec 9 2022 0:03 utc | 158 - Re: Telegram account - "they are easy to get and free, at least that was so for me on my pc.." In the U.S., a mobile phone number with SMS is required to register.
You may want to check that again, there is a new feature now, below is from December 6

No-SIM Signup, Auto-Delete All Chats, Topics 2.0 and More

With this update, you can have a Telegram account without a SIM card

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 9 2022 7:16 utc | 237

Germany announced the provision of a new package of military assistance to Ukraine. The help package includes:
▪️2 tank tractors M1070 Oshkosh
Posted by: Jo | Dec 8 2022 16:22 utc | 4

The primary purpose of this combination for the U.S. Army is the transport of the M1 Abrams tank (Wikipedia).
Salami slicing tactics. We are inching towards full NATO involvement.

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 9 2022 7:27 utc | 238

SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 5:29 utc | 250

What did you expect the RF to do ? Up until 2008 Putin was their guy. After 2008 the west turned on him and in 2014 Putin officially became Hitler.

They had to prepare Sean. Weapons to develop and production lines ramped up. All the while Lavrov was working the RoW knowing what was coming.

Mistakes were made for sure but I don't see Lavrov making them. As long as the RF learnt from the mistakes its OK.

Putin now knows the west cannot be trusted. But he said that earlier this year so this revelation was nothing new. I have no idea if he felt betrayed but I would have expected Merkel to be disingenuous right from the outset.

Anyway the deeds are done. Good luck to the West in trying to do any deals on their terms anymore with Russia or China.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 9 2022 8:05 utc | 239

«the SPIEGEL-interview with Merkel was not published word-for-word, only summarized. Online issue 48/22 translated with Google: “Angela Merkel [...] believes that she bought the time, then and later in the Minsk negotiations, that Ukraine could use to better resist a Russian attack. It is a stronger, more resilient country now. Back then, she is sure, she would have been overrun by Putin's troops.”»

That is itself just propaganda, because it was Poroshenko, the ukrainian president appointed by the USA government, who started a war of aggression against the Donbas on 9 May 2014 with the attack on Mariupol:
«The deep anger toward both Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (I was told by one young woman, a native of Donetsk, that “this is Poroshenko’s war”) and an equally deep sense of alienation from the Ukrainian state in Kiev are equally unmistakable. One young mother told us “there is no ‘back’ to Ukraine for Donbas.” If Poroshenko and his cheerleaders in the Obama administration and the US Congress believe that an economic blockade, Kiev’s deployment of snipers, the shelling of Donbas’s civilians and a proposal to send American weapons with which to facilitate the shelling is the recipe for winning eastern Ukrainian “hearts and minds” they couldn’t be more wrong.»

There was no intervention by Putin except for some humanitarian supplies to the population:
«In 2014, when I was at NATO, I was responsible for the fight against the proliferation of small arms, and we were trying to detect Russian arms deliveries to the rebels, to see if Moscow was involved. The information we received then came almost entirely from Polish intelligence services and did not “fit” with the information coming from the OSCE — despite rather crude allegations, there were no deliveries of weapons and military equipment from Russia. The rebels were armed thanks to the defection of Russian-speaking Ukrainian units that went over to the rebel side. As Ukrainian failures continued, tank, artillery and anti-aircraft battalions swelled the ranks of the autonomists. This is what pushed the Ukrainians to commit to the Minsk Agreements.»

Indeed Putin *refused* to take the Donbas:
«Poroshenko made the offer during a peace summit in Minsk in February 2015, Putin reportedly told a senior member of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs on 19 March. An anonymous source present at the closed door meeting revealed to Forbes Russian edition that Putin told the summit: "[Poroshenko] told me directly: 'Take the Donbass.' I replied: 'Are you out of your mind? I don't need the Donbass. If you don't need it, declare it independent.'" Poroshenko reportedly asked Putin to take financial responsibility for the region, where the city of Donetsk called itself a 'People's Republic' after the Maidan Revolution last year. Putin replied that the region was Kiev's financial responsibility, as long as it remained part of Ukraine.»

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 9 2022 8:10 utc | 240

Hermit | Dec 9 2022 5:40 utc | 252

It appears the RF has the EU by the balls. Seriously - one rifle and you could bring down a good part of the EU grid.

Thanks for that Hermit much appreciated.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 9 2022 8:12 utc | 241

SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 7:14 utc | 262

War is Hell. Literally hell.

You must give peace every chance. Every time.

Only when you have exhausted every option then war can be considered.

The RF did the right thing.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 9 2022 8:21 utc | 242

That was one helluva an explosion. The videos show a store (OBI supermarket) consumed in flames. And then, looking at the one side of the building directly, there was a huge explosion at the left end and then an immediate similar explosion at the right end, maybe 100 feet away. Don't know what could cause those kinds of explosions in a grocery store, unless they stored plastic explosives on that one side of the building. The distance between the two explosions, yet their simultaneous detonation, looks really suspicious.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Dec 9 2022 8:25 utc | 243

It seems to me that there are two competing narratives about the state and current posture of the respective Russian and Ukrainian militaries.

The first is essentially that promulgated by the Western establishment and is that the RF are pretty well fought out with low morale, bad leadership and dwindling stocks of weapons and supplies. The UAF in contrast have suffered fewer losses and have been substantially rebuilt and retrained, and benefit from western [advice] and 3CII. In this world view a few more UAF offensives will secure a military victory.

The second is essentially the opposite and that - in spite of reverses in September and a [humiliating] retreat at Kherson - the RF has been reinforced and now is simply waiting for the ground to harden [end of Dec?] before taking offensive action against a now outnumbered UAF. In this world view the smaller forces used by Russia in the "SMO" have been relatively skilfully employed thus far, and used superior firepower to inflict severe losses on the UAF. The gloves have not yet come off.

It is clear that whilst the truth probably lies somewhere between these positions, these views are genuinely held by people and I think that those leading the West really do consider the first to be the situation.

My view lies much closer to the second view. Living in the West this is hard to maintain as people are flooded by media reports telling them that I must be crazy!

Taking the second view, there appear to be some commentators who seem to me to be claiming that the RF is fighting an attritional positional war on purpose and that this, combined with the occasional tactical, withdrawal, will delivery a military victory.

Personally I think this is an example of post-event rationalisation. The Russian goals orignally I think were to secure a subdued and demilitarised Ukraine, and one which was neutral. They believed this could be achieved through a significant but all the same limited military operation. The opposite has so far been the result and so the SMO must be deemed a failure in these terms.

As events have unfolded and largely due to NATO support for Ukraine, and an economic and cultural war against Russia - and let us be honest also due to UAF fighting abilities - Russia now finds itself in a real war. In my view this is existential for Russia in both immediate security terms, but also as the key facet of the wider geo-political and economic struggle and realignment taking place.

Russia simply cannot afford to lose. Even if the fantasy of a coup against Putin came true, it is highly likely that a harder line regime would come to power. So IMHO Russia will prosecute the war until a victory is won.

In WW2 Russia did not secure peace on the Volga but once they had crossed the Oder. Russia needs to both destroy the UAF and take ground to be able to claim victory. Indeed it probably now needs to dismantle Ukraine as a nation. All of this means that I expect offensive action to be taken over the winter as soon as conditions allow.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future. However if over the winter we see a continuation of positional warfare then I think you have to conclude that the Russian Army is not acting out of choice but necessity.

Posted by: marcjf | Dec 9 2022 8:37 utc | 244

marcjf | Dec 9 2022 8:37 utc | 271

"Indeed it probably now needs to dismantle Ukraine as a nation."

That is unacceptable to the US. They will not allow that to happen. It will probably mean a shooting war between RF and the US.

Always a chance the US is lying about their red line but I wouldn't bet on it.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 9 2022 8:54 utc | 245

Wow! Until I came to this site I had know idea that there were so many experts on all things Geopolitical.
Still, as has been said before, opinions are like arseholes, everybody has one...

Posted by: Ken Tucky | Dec 9 2022 8:55 utc | 246

These four oblasts that are now Russian territory. Where does Russia see its borders as being, then? The borders of those oblasts as were or as are now?

Posted by: abrogard | Dec 9 2022 9:09 utc | 247

marcjf | Dec 9 2022 8:37 utc | 271

Much depends on who we view RF is fighting. Everything has to be taken into account - The Russian security proposals, the Russia China joint statement... Ukraine takes up very little of Putin and Lavrovs time yet for the west it is the be all and end all. Though in saying that, the US sees it has lost and is pulling out of the war against Russia. Ammo is replaced by political noise.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 9:10 utc | 248

I see where Willie Walsh - the head of IATA - has come out and said that European airlines need access to Russian airspace. He of course realises that that won’t happen unless the EU lifts their ban on the Russians using the EU airspace’s. Russias ban was, after all, just a tit for tat measure. So it seems we now have a 3rd sensible Irish person. It’s a pity there are so few but it’s still a 50% increase so there is hope

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Dec 9 2022 9:16 utc | 249


I very much doubt European airlines will ever again have access to Russin airspace. There is simply no reason for Russia to ever trust a "civilian" airline under the influence of the USA no matter what livery it carries.

This war is a long war - the European Continent has experienced a Seven Year War; a Thirty Year War; Eighty Years War; Hundred Years War - why people cannot see this is going to be "Permanent War" I do not understand.......

The fringes of Europe where Oceania meets Eurasia will be burning for decades and Poland, Romania and the Baltics will have to learn to live with the economic consequences of being battleground frontier states

The Fulda Gap was never economically developed which is why today it probably only has a giant Amazon warehouse for inward investment

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 9 2022 9:21 utc | 250

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 7:14 utc | 262

With luck after you've grown up you'll have learned that taking oneself ridiculously seriously just makes one look ridiculous.

Posted by: StirThePot | Dec 9 2022 9:27 utc | 251

Was not the argument here that US did not have any aid left for Ukraine LOL

US to unveil new military aid package for Ukraine – Reuters
The $275 million allocation reportedly puts the focus on air defense

From RT

US House passes bill backing record military spending, includes support for Taiwan, Ukraine.
It provides Ukraine at least 800 million dollars in additional security assistance next year and includes a range of provisions to strengthen Taiwan amid tensions with China.

From Defensenews

Posted by: Za_n_on | Dec 9 2022 9:30 utc | 252

People here rabbit on about 2008 and 2014 as if Russia was all-powerful at those times and able to take on the world.

The real change agent in the world is CHINA.

Until 2012 the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China was Hu Jintao.

The accession of Xi Jinping changed the calculus completely with "wolf warrior diplomacy"

The harmony between Russia and China is the key factor that has changed the world - it makes the Russian Federation stronger by giving it a coastline into Asia.

China has economic development BECAUSE it has a coastline in warm waters and cities near the coast and major ports. Russia lacked that.

Chinese ICBMs are near the Russian border so as to have the right latitude........the ability to integrate similar equipment and have Russian-speaking Chinese has given enormous advantages to Moscow never before available.

Too many commentators on this blog are Bilateralists and fail to understand a Multipolar World

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 9 2022 9:31 utc | 253

Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on December 8, 2022

▪️Ukrainian units hit a village in Yakovlevsky District, Belgorod Region.

As a result of the shelling, a fire broke out, projectiles fragments damaged a power line. No casualties.

▪️In Lyman Sector, heavy counter-fighting continues at the Ploshchanka- Chervonopopivka line. Artillery and aviation are intensively operating.

Russian troops are trying to dislodge the entrenched AFU units from Zhuravka Balka.

▪️In Lysychans’k Direction, Russian Army continues to push through the AFU defences in Bilohorivka and Spirne.

Army aviation and artillery strike the spotted targets grinding out the incoming enemy reinforcements.

▪️AFU once again used the US-supplied HIMARS MLRS to hit civilian objects.

In Pervomais'k, residential buildings, communication facilities and a petrol station were damaged as a result of the strike.

▪️Bakhmut remains one of the hottest points on the front line. In street fighting, the enemy suffers heavy losses in personnel.

Despite this, the AFU Command is not going to surrender the city and is redeploying reserves to strengthen their defences.

▪️Ukrainian units continue massive shelling of Donetsk and nearby towns.

Residential areas are shelled indiscriminately. Several residential buildings are destroyed. There are injured people, one killed.

▪️AFU units tried to attack the positions of Russian marines in the direction of Nikolske.

All counterattack attempts were repelled. Ukrainian units suffered losses in personnel and equipment.
#digest #Russia #Ukraine #video

It's pretty obvious that the Ukrainian troops which reached Kherson a month ago are redeployed to Zaporizhe and Bakhmut regions, albeit mostly to the latter, fed in as continuous replacements. I guess they are soon plowed through, if not already - hence the news of green recruits in that area.

Nato is "retraining" another ukro force somewhere, but with the rate of 50000 / 24 months, it's very slow and will take a very long time to make any impact or another real offensive attempt viable. In fact it might not ever be viable with the way things are going.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 9 2022 9:31 utc | 254

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 9 2022 7:14 utc | 262

In my view you are being too literal regarding Lavrov's statements. He is a diplomat so he speak in diplomatic language. Its clear to anyone paying attention including you i assume, that the Russian leadership has been disillusioned for a very long time see Putins 2008 Munich speech for example, therefore we can assume Lavrov was simply using a diplomatic turn of phrase. Simple as that, moving right along.

Posted by: K | Dec 9 2022 9:35 utc | 255

Pope believes the Chechen's and Buryat's are barbarians committing war crimes. It is something he should discuss with Tuvan Shoigu.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 9:39 utc | 256

So Germany wants to be guarantor of security in Europe!

Germany failed at that game..........proven failure......

The parliament of Ukraine approved a law on "special status" for Donbas on 17 March, as specified by Minsk II.[60] Later, in 2019, Ukraine's parliament voted to extend regulations giving limited self-rule to separatist-controlled eastern regions, a prerequisite for a deal to settle the five-year conflict there.[61] The law was immediately criticised by Ukrainian politicians, separatist leaders, and the Russian government. Radical Party leader Oleh Lyashko said that the law was "a vote for de facto recognition of the Russian occupation in Donbas". Vice-parliamentary speaker Andriy Parubiy said that law was "not for Putin or the occupiers", but to show Europe that Ukraine was willing to adhere to Minsk II. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that the law was a "sharp departure from the Minsk agreements" because it demanded local elections under Ukrainian jurisdiction.[60]

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 9 2022 9:47 utc | 257

Za_n_on | Dec 9 2022 9:30 utc | 279

"Was not the argument here that US did not have any aid left for Ukraine LOL

US to unveil new military aid package for Ukraine – Reuters
The $275 million allocation reportedly puts the focus on air defense
From RT

US House passes bill backing record military spending, includes support for Taiwan, Ukraine.
It provides Ukraine at least 800 million dollars in additional security assistance next year and includes a range of provisions to strengthen Taiwan amid tensions with China.
From Defensenews"

By now we're well into the realm of US war-gravy votes being little more than a direct handout to the weapons racket with propaganda accompaniment. By now it's probably for stuff slated to be delivered in 2040 while the propaganda implies it'll be delivered to the front line tomorrow.

The pedo-Satanist neocons (who want nuclear war, which they think they can win), the collectively suicidal pedo-Eurotrash (who want nuclear war, so they all can die in it), and the front line soldiers are those taking the war for real. For everyone else it's a sham.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Dec 9 2022 9:50 utc | 258

@ Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 9 2022 3:29 utc | 227
Urging World Statesmen and Women to speak

“English, the universal language?”

Ah bless, a piece of gammon speaking as the Wolf huffs and puffs and blows your house down. 🤣

- Lavrov speaks perfect English, nuanced and funny as well. First time he came to prominence in my eyes was when Trump had invited him to the WhoteHouse and he came out of the Oval Office to say something in English I believe.
I bet almost all world leaders and diplomats and spokespeople speak multiple languages.
But only the yanks and the Brits demand everyone speak AMERICAN!
Because we are so dumbed down that we still believe we once owned and ran the whole world - when all we really did was to sail the oceans with big canons bombing ports and pirating trading ships. And we still haven’t accepted that old world died in the last century and the new millennium is about actual lands with hundreds of languages and cultures not just our Anglo-Saxon claims of Ruling the Waves.

English may be widely spoken, but so is Spanish and Chinese is still on the rise.

The only thing universally English is used in is air traffic control afaik - which is sensible for take off and landings when needing to make sure everyone knows their Left and Right!

Hope that hasn’t scorched too much to a crisp my tasty bacon friend!

Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 9 2022 10:13 utc | 259

DunGroanin | Dec 9 2022 10:13 utc | 286

Fact check spell check. WhoteHouse. You spelt it wrong. Correct spelling is Whorehouse. Not to worry. You were just one letter out.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 10:19 utc | 260

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 10:19 utc | 287

Peter, don't ever lose your humor!

That reminds me of the late, great William Blum's line,
"Don't tell my mother I work at the White House. She thinks I play the piano in a whore house."

Posted by: waynorinorway | Dec 9 2022 10:27 utc | 261

@fanto | Dec 9 2022 3:59 utc | 237

Thx Mate! However I am not so convinced that the West will step back. A wounded animal is the worst one and they have gone all in. They simply want blood… and payback on the 60B USD invested in this war.

Posted by: Metallist | Dec 9 2022 10:30 utc | 262

The BIG PROBLEM is how to bring about the demise of the Outlaw US Empire without events escalating to nuclear war…. I seem to be the only one at MoA who sees this issue and how it impacts policy making.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 8 2022 18:17 utc | 38


You’re not the only one—while I’m ultimately optimistic Russia, China and the gathering resistance around them can defeat the US empire, my worry is around the risk of things going nuclear. Not so much because the US ruling class decide to destroy the world they can no longer rule, as because of some accident or error. Russia and China are navigating between the Scylla of losses while defeating the Empire and the Charybdis of nuclear war destroying everything.

I’m still catching up on this thread but your entire comment @38 was brilliant, thank you.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Dec 9 2022 10:32 utc | 263

Posted by: marcjf | Dec 9 2022 8:37 utc | 271

Well I have no clue, but it makes sense to me that the objective in a war is to destroy the other guy's army without losing one's own. While the other army exists there will be fighting; when the opposite army is gone you can take what you like. So the Russian strategy should be to achieve that without regard for time or territory.

Posted by: Tim | Dec 9 2022 10:39 utc | 264

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 8 2022 21:55 utc | 111

Refreshing to read intelligent commentary. I think you're right.

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 9 2022 10:50 utc | 265

karlof @ 38

Vintage Red brings this to my attention. Sometimes "escalating to nuclear war" just reads as rhetoric and we pass over that. Plenty of us here are aware of the prospect of nuclear annihilation.

The West has become completely irrational and is behaving badly, likely to continue behaving badly. In terms of your post @ 38, NATo has zero possibility of re-arming. For quite a long time all advanced and some simple weapons systems rely on Chinese and Russian materials and components. Russia and China are both still playing stability and letting the Empire go down slow.

At another level the Empire is deep in process of suicide. Gender dysphoria is actively promoted and preferred. We read that of those in prime reproductive years 21% consider themselves LGBTQetc. Those young people are not reproducing. At same time sperm count and fertility are crashing. No one at all is prepared to even look for causes of crashing sperm and infertility. I will tell you the damn vaccines are a big contributor to those problems and right away no one is going to want to even talk about it.

Read the curent issue of The Atlantic. Anti-humanism and transhumanism are on the table. The west does not even want to survive. Harari and Gates and Schwab, not to mention Obama and Hillary are all ready to reduce the population. By any means necessary. They are succeeding in that. They could very possibly succeed in a large way. Ukraine is a trial run.

Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 9 2022 10:55 utc | 266


There are recently here some truly odious dickheads and johnny-come-lately's who are making it their mission to pretend to be clever but are obviously in a sperg bubble fascinated with the sound of their own inane drivel. Their goal is to disrupt the serious comment by either trolling or labelling others (ike karlof1) as such. You know who they are or can tell from their meaningless random typing (Posted by: harryash | Dec 8 2022 21:29 utc | 101). The spectacle these autistic narcissists think they're displaying is like watching a 5 year old on a trampoline. Spült die Augiasstallungen mit meinem Segen, meine Freund.

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 9 2022 10:58 utc | 267

oldhippie | Dec 9 2022 10:55 utc | 293

"No one at all is prepared to even look for causes of crashing sperm and infertility. I will tell you the damn vaccines are a big contributor to those problems and right away no one is going to want to even talk about it.

Read the curent issue of The Atlantic. Anti-humanism and transhumanism are on the table. The west does not even want to survive. Harari and Gates and Schwab, not to mention Obama and Hillary are all ready to reduce the population. By any means necessary. They are succeeding in that. They could very possibly succeed in a large way. Ukraine is a trial run."

It's a one-two punch, physical and psychological. For decades pesticides and other industrial poisons have been depressing fertility, and one of the deadly effects of the "Covid" injections is to radically escalate this poison-acquired sterility.

At the same time the exact same power-mongers that deployed the physical poisons are deploying the "wokeness"/trans-mutant propaganda onslaught which, among its other deadly outcomes, is designed to demonize natural procreation.

The general campaign of economic immiseration also depresses reproduction.

And if all else fails, they stand poised to use the Borderland war as the pretext to let the missiles fly.

This is the time of the terminal Western Death Cult.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Dec 9 2022 11:04 utc | 268

Posted by: Uwe | Dec 9 2022 1:36 utc | 193
Don't worry. Germany will not be the guarantor of security in Europe or anything else. It is dying faster every day and mutating into a Shithole Contry. If Germany falls, the EU will fall apart too.

Thank you to all who responded to my post (nr.60). Uwe, I appreciate your comments about the state of affairs in Germany.
It is, as we all know, an important country. I certainly hope that Germany is not "dying", but it is up to Germans to take responsibility for their country and its actions on the European and world stage.

Regarding - guarantor of security - my point is, no one country should be a "guarantor of security". Security is not provided for by arms but in a myriad of ways, which are not the topic here. The very idea that Germany wants to be the guarantor, as European countries allegedly expect, according to Sholz, is in my view worrying. Based on an article in Strategic Culture, the US promised Germany "a leadership role". I find all that very worrisome and dangerous.

I was hoping that someone could provide us all with a full English translation of Mekel's interview. It is important and we need to read the whole thing not just bits.

Posted by: JB | Dec 9 2022 11:15 utc | 269

The West has become completely irrational and is behaving badly, likely to continue behaving badly. In terms of your post @ 38, NATo has zero possibility of re-arming. For quite a long time all advanced and some simple weapons systems rely on Chinese and Russian materials and components. Russia and China are both still playing stability and letting the Empire go down slow.


Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 9 2022 10:55 utc | 293

The use of commercial products (COTS -- "Commercial Off-The-Shelf") products in defense got big in the 1990s, and was obviously a stupid idea even then, but has been great for the defense bidness profits.
And then they offshored production, so it all comes overseas.

And these are our "elites" who did this.

I had some exposure to that back in my working life.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 9 2022 11:23 utc | 270

This may have been posted before but does anyone know what designs these Korean armor units are based on? Maybe a combo of a couple designs? I doubt the Koreans started from scratch.

Posted by: DakotaRog | Dec 9 2022 11:29 utc | 271

First impressions from Viktor But after liberation, he talks to another victim of the US hunt for Russian nationals Maria Butina. Viktor But says that there was no rusophobia in the detention center he spent 14 years in, he figures this is due to the fact that the prison was located in red fly over US, I would add that plain US citizens and plain Russians have a lot in common and if not for imperial politics they would get along really well, I’ve been witness to that. He also says the following, machine translated:

"The West believes that they did not finish us off in the 90s, when the Soviet Union began to disintegrate. And the fact that we are trying now, you know, just, how to say it, to live and, as it were, not to be somebody, you know, to rule and not depend on anyone, to be a truly independent power and develop the way our people choose, this is, of course, such shocking news for them", — he said in a conversation with Maria Butina.

Asked about the Hollywood film about him:

you see, if they had come to me and asked, at least somehow, maybe I would have come up with a more interesting story," Bout said.

Posted by: Paco | Dec 9 2022 11:33 utc | 272

Flying Dutchman @ 295

You expressed that well. We are in agreement. The subject is so fraught and off-putting and dismal it gets hard to say anything.

I still like Thomas Mann. Who talked about this in a civilized way. Death in Venice and Magic Mountain are always and obviously discussed as being about a way of life that ended with WWI. Except that WWII was just an extension of WWI, really one war. And the aristocrats made a few changes, they did not go away. Not at all. They are still calling the shots and they are even more exhausted and bereft of next moves than Hans Castorp.

Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 9 2022 11:34 utc | 273

A final post for this morning.

Mass media narrative tanker being turned -

e,g1 Elons twatter cleaning of the stables - very handy ‘furyners and Yankee Commies‘ (lol) and weird transhumansexplainer kiddies running the billion dollar businesses to blame and scapegoat - almost as if they were built to be such easy targets.

He is admitting shadow banning but not yet mass interference in elections through out the world especially even in ‘friendly’ countries.

There are many installed western puppets who should be shown as having been election interfered into office. illegitimately.

Eg2 Newsweek opening the new narrative of evil Ukraine with despot leader of Nazis and admitting defeat and fall in Bakhmut with thousands and thousands of Nato boots on the ground in a illegal war against Russia - these dumb fucks don’t want to be caught and be declared as mercenaries because they were FOLLOWING ORDERS.

Arlington is busy as are many Polish military cemeteries where many a nato boot will forever be a piece of their imperial hubris. Haven’t seen any military notices in the U.K. yet, but we should look out for the NewYears ‘gongs’ list from the Palace and see how many posthumous awards were made to military and ‘civil service’ ie 007’s licensed to be killed in the Ukraine mincer.

Final score prediction as the British media goes into full tailspin-

Bahkmut, Nulled- Artemovsk, Won.

Time to warm up the bangs for the 1812 Overture.


Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 9 2022 11:38 utc | 274

@ DakotaRog | Dec 9 2022 11:29 utc | 298

It is a tracked armored turreted 155mm gun howitzer. Unremarkable.

In current situ, it is junk, and all analogues, without a regular & sufficient logistical supply of 155mm shells to actually fire. Good for shoot & scoot harassing arty fire missions, to try to survive another day, re RF counter-battery fire.

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 9 2022 11:39 utc | 275

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 9 2022 8:10 utc | 267
and others
..the SPIEGEL-interview with Merkel ......

the SPIEGEL-issue is a Cover story at spiegel 48/2022
in this Edition the author only summarized a conversation in june 2022 in berlin

".. Sie glaubt, damals und auch später bei den Verhandlungen von Minsk die Zeit gekauft zu haben, die die Ukraine nutzen konnte, um sich einem russischen Angriff besser widersetzen zu können. Sie sei ein stärkeres, wehrhafteres Land jetzt.
Damals, da ist sie sicher, wäre sie von Putins Truppen überrollt worden..."

BUT in an interview in the magazine "ZEIT" from 07.12.2022 there IS a part witch has the same meaning

"...Und das Minsker Abkommen 2014 war der Versuch, der Ukraine Zeit zu geben. Sie hat diese Zeit hat auch genutzt, um stärker zu werden, wie man heute sieht. Die Ukraine von 2014/15 ist nicht die Ukraine von heute. Wie man am Kampf um Debalzewe (Eisenbahnerstadt im Donbass, Oblast Donezk, d. Red.) Anfang 2015 gesehen hat, hätte Putin sie damals leicht überrennen können. Und ich bezweifle sehr, dass die Nato-Staaten damals so viel hätten tun können wie heute, um der Ukraine zu helfen. ...."
in the end we don't need merkel or poroshenko ( these two only underscores the "west" is not trustworthy ) already the MFA from November 18, 2021 shows that the "West" will not adhere to the the Minsk Package of Measures from 2015; in a lawrow letter
"..For this reason, your statement that direct dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk would not “find acceptance” serves to discredit the co-authorship of the leaders of Germany and France under the February 12, 2015 document."

Posted by: ghiwen | Dec 9 2022 11:42 utc | 276

@Hermit, #252

Yeah, I remember seeing that Congressional Research report about how many dead Americans after 1 year or no wide-scale electricity. It sounds like a modeling output and as we know, the more variables entered into models, the harder they are to run decently so things tend to get simplified in various parameters and thus what do the outputs really mean in the end?

I'm sure there would be tens to maybe several hundred million Americans dead in that first year but even if 30% survived, that still over a 100,000,000 people. Most of the losses would come in the big metro areas or regions of metros areas but the vast majority of the U.S. is not covered with urban/developed land. About 30% of the CONUS is in some sort of forest, and thaqt's not counting brunable woodland stufflike 3-4 m higher mes

Posted by: DakotaRog | Dec 9 2022 11:42 utc | 277

Sorry, finger must have hit the post button

Picking up from #304

wood resources doesn't count the woodlands like 3-4 m tall mesquite and other tall "shrubs" say in s TX and other parts of the southwest.

About 20% of the CONUS is in cropland. I know most people don't eat out of the field ag commodities but people could with some preparation. A bushel of wheat weighs 60 pounds (you all will have to convert to metric), corn 56 pounds, soybeans 56 pounds. Wheat and corn are fairly easy to eat from its whole self, soybeans takes a bit more processing but still fairly simple.

There's a 100 million head of cattle at any one time in the CONUS, and high numbers of pork and poultry-- there are a few individual U.S. counties that process 100 million meat chickens a year. Would industrialized food work without wide-spread power, no, but don't write off 300 million people in not figuring out how to raise food to eat.

Once people get past the basics of shelter, food, and water, and various low-tech fuels, people can figure out how to live. There was life before electricity and there will still considerable human life after the current grid system.

P.S. There are 500 million privately owned firearms in the USA and billions upon billions rounds of ammo.

P.S.S. How many of you have cut up big game animals, from being fresh dead on the ground until you grilled steaks and roasts? A person can get fast it at it. Lots of things will have to be re-learned but I doubt 95% of Americans will be dead. Sorry...

Posted by: DakotaRog | Dec 9 2022 11:52 utc | 278

In reply to Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022
You wrote you "fought Nazis in the streets" and Putin is a fascist. Well. Let me say that sounds like the memories of a German far-left activist.
How do you call soldiers of the Ukrainian regiment Azov who had on their sleeves the infamous Wolfsangel insignia? A mirror image of the insignia of the sinister SS Das Reich division?
In 1944, the SS Das Reich division was based close to Toulouse, France, where it pursued then assassinated a lot of people who were members of the French Resistance. In June 1944, the Das Reich moved to North. A fraction went northeastbound. In a small town, my mother and my sister were kept as hostages for a couple of hours. Fortunately, they were left alive, along with other hostages. Then this fraction of the Das Reich went to Tulle, where it hanged 100 persons and deported 200 to Dachau. And finally it was the massacre at Oradour sur Glane.
Therefore, IMHO, any soldier who sports Nazi insignia is a Nazi. And the country which allows them to be enrolled in its armed forces is a Nazi state. And Putin is right to destroy this hornet nest.
That's all.

Posted by: Hamilcar Barca | Dec 9 2022 12:12 utc | 279


Having finished reading this entire thread, minimum 21% was trolling rubbish, IMHO. But, wading through the muck given the extent/volume/vitriol, felt more like 42%. Yet the other 79% was more than worth the effort. Thanks b & contributors.

All the same, think I'll go take another shower & change into a new set of clothes. Phew, yuck ...


Putin: West's desire for hegemony risks triggering more conflicts

Russian President Vladimir Putin says the West’s desire to maintain its hegemony on the world stage is increasing the risks of conflict, slamming the US and its allies for using Ukraine as "cannon fodder".


Posted by: Outraged | Dec 9 2022 12:26 utc | 280

oldhippie | Dec 9 2022 10:55 utc | 293

"Those young people are not reproducing. At same time sperm count and fertility are crashing. No one at all is prepared to even look for causes of crashing sperm and infertility."

It's more that real male wages have been static since the 1970s

While house prices, aided by low interest rates and money printing, have gone through the roof.

In 1970s UK the median house was about 4 times median male wage, now its more like 9-10 times.

A commenter in the Guardian inadvertantly picked up on this the other day, when telling us how awful things were for women 50 years ago

"I don't believe when the only chance in life for most women was to have a bunch of children and take care of their house that there was more respect for women, sorry."

In the UK at any rate, having "a bunch of children" is financially impossible for most women, and staying at home to look after them is likewise impossible, something only for the wealthy or the benefit-funded. You need two incomes to buy anywhere these days. So women work full time and say how expensive childcare is.

Things are really bad in the UK, where Boris's government handed out 1.1 million visas last year. Graduates with professional jobs in their 30s are living in a single room in a shared house, as if they were 19 year old students.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 9 2022 12:29 utc | 281

So, Ukr. puts together a small offensive. While there are a number of armored vehicles, tanks don't seem to be mentioned. They got killed as usual. Rope a Dope continues...

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 9 2022 12:44 utc | 282

@ YetAnotherAnon | Dec 9 2022 12:29 utc | 308

OT. Reply/complementary comment in 'Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2022-219'

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 9 2022 12:44 utc | 283

Imagine you are Zelensky
and Nuland tells you that "of course, Ukraine must make it's own decisions on the conduct of the conflict and in any choices regarding negotiations".
What do you do? (IQ test)

Posted by: jared | Dec 9 2022 12:54 utc | 284

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 9 2022 2:27 utc | 215

Does anyone know the status of the Kinburn split?

After countless attempts to take it the AFU has yet to see success.

Now that forces are being borrowed from Zaporizhye to feed the fighting at Bakhmut it's unlikely the attempt to take the kinburn spit and then Zaporizhye will ever be successful.

Aside: Hysterical predictions by the MoA troll contingent that Russia would yield Zaporizhye without a fight have failed to come true.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2022 12:55 utc | 285

Shelling comes because of this:Wargonzo announces the withdrawal of units of the 93rd brigade from Soledar.

The operational sources of the @wargonzo project confirm the information about the withdrawal of the remnants of the 2nd battalions of the 93rd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Soledar.

According to incoming intelligence, the neo-Nazi command plans to withdraw units to Slavyansk for regrouping. For this, the Kiev division of "Aidara" was sent there as part of the 53rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 112th brigade of the territorial defense of Kyiv.

The withdrawal is associated with catastrophic losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

Meanwhile, it is impossible to talk about the complete withdrawal of troops from Soledar at the moment: parts of the 53rd separate mechanized brigade, the 71st Jaeger brigade and the remnants of the 65th brigade of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain in the city.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 13:06 utc | 286

Ukrainian TG-channel "Resident" writes:

“Our source in the OP said that the supply of Western weapons and ammunition has sharply decreased due to Zelensky’s refusal to implement the “Sullivan formula” that is being imposed on us from the United States.

All this led to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to defend themselves and collect reserves in one direction, for a possible counteroffensive.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 13:07 utc | 287

Colleagues, everything is very simple.
You take the body of the Soviet UAV Strizh and fill it with new electronics and Western developments.
It's like in the ZAZ Zaporozhets of the 1970s, to cram everything from the Ferrari of 2022, but to tell the public that this is the same Zaporozhets.

All sabotage/terror attacks in Russia on behalf of Ukraine are carried out by Western intelligence services, we have been inside about this even earlier. Mostly Brits and NATO instructors/advisers. Each operation is developed for 3 months. Many fail, but those that are obtained sound loudly informationally. But the Ukrainian people pay for this, as the answer flies through energy / infrastructure facilities.

This war is beneficial for Western partners, because they use the Ukrainian crisis as a living testing ground, they can test the necessary algorithms and developments, but there will be no need for this, or Ukraine will become too “expensive to maintain”, they will immediately merge, leaving the Ukrainian people on the “ruins” and in debt.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 13:08 utc | 288

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2022 12:55 utc | 312 [After countless attempts to take it the AFU has yet to see success.]

Or no attempts. Just a raid or two with some press releases.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 9 2022 13:09 utc | 289

Apocalypse in Bakhmut — Ukrainian public opinion is being prepared for Ukrainian retreat

Something clearly did not go according to plan with the Ukrainian Army near Bakhmut. Information about huge losses in the ranks of the Ukrainian militants is increasingly leaking to both the Ukrainian and Western press. It is likely that in this way the enemy's information machine is preparing society for the surrender of the city.

In the second half of November, the position of the Ukrainian Army in the Bakhmut direction became dramatically more difficult — first, Western publications, such as the New York Times, began one after another to publish gloomy reports about overcrowded Ukrainian hospitals, and then the officials of Ukraine, including Zelensky himself, were forced to admit the gravity of the situation. Ukraine threw more and more units, consisting of untrained infantry, under the Russian artillery, which died before even deploy.

Western mercenaries, many of whom fight and die for the Ukraine, also talk about Bakhmut horrors. Thus, the head of the US Mozart PMC Andrew Milburn recently reported in an interview with Newsweek about the "incredibly high losses" of the Ukrainian Army in this area. Besides, Wagner group is developing an offensive on Soledar, which in the long term could provoke the encirclement of Bakhmut.

Under such conditions, the holding of the city costs the Ukrainian side enormous forces and means, which are also being wiped out by Russian forces with enviable consistency.

Apparently, it is through the media that they began to prepare the people of Ukraine for retreat — that they tried, but failed, as you can see for yourselves. The usual cry about Ukrainian heroes fighting for freedom and etc. was prepared for Western audience.

The Ukrainian PR-machine has recently accelerated to such an extent that the society's acceptance of the red pill of reality and the exit from the matrix of permanent victories can be more than painful.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 13:10 utc | 290

Down South | Dec 9 2022 13:07 utc | 314

I've been writing about it for awhile but most confuse bluster with ammunition.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 13:17 utc | 291

Paco - "I would add that plain US citizens and plain Russians have a lot in common"

The American dream moved to Russia. Russia now is what america thought it was.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 13:28 utc | 292

Over the course of this war, we've noticed in particular the failure of Ukrainian conscript soldiers. We know that they're given smile-and-a-handshake training, are deployed in the wild without the necessary equipment or support of any kind, and tend to die in batches. The only thing impressive about their performance is that they're so many of them; every time I picture such a thing I think of the Iraq-Iran war and human wave attacks. (As the Daleks would say, "You are good at dying.")

The position among the bar is that the new Russian conscripts will give the decisive edge to the Russians in the winter. My question to the esteemed bar: how do we know the Russian conscripts will be any better? I know that the Russian military is notorious hazing and horrible bullying and I suspect that some segment of these recruits isn't very enthusiastic. But "lack of enthusiasm" doesn't mean that someone won't fight.


How long will their training be?
Are they being trained now? (and another question, 'What are they doing now?')
Are they destined exclusively for support roles or will they be sent to the front?

I fear that people feel the recruits will be a game changer when...well...recruits are recruits.

Posted by: Ursula Zandt | Dec 9 2022 13:33 utc | 293

Aside: Hysterical predictions by the MoA troll contingent that Russia would yield Zaporizhye without a fight have failed to come true.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2022 12:55 utc | 312

Be patient. Didn't Baldie retreat from Kherson without a fight, losing Russian territory? Zap retreat is 50% possible. And 100% if nato really wants to hit the reactor. All they did today was to complain to UN for civilian deaths in Donbass. That is not "winning"

Posted by: rk | Dec 9 2022 13:43 utc | 294

waynorinorway | Dec 9 2022 10:27 utc | 288
This is a tough life. I ran out of booze for few hours and dried out like a liverwurst Scholz. My good wife came home and pulled out a bottle of booze from a shopping bag that had been sitting on the floor.
I had to laugh at this one "Don't tell my mother I work at the White House. She thinks I play the piano in a whore house."

We sit and watch as the world goes round.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 9 2022 13:49 utc | 295

🛢 🇷🇺 #oil #ceiling
▫️"We will not sell oil to those countries that support the price cap, we will also think about the possibility of reducing production"

▫️There are no decisions on reducing production, this is still speculation; concrete steps in connection with the ceiling will be spelled out in the decree, it will be released in the coming days"

▫️The proposed price ceiling is commensurate with the prices at which we sell oil, we will not lose under any circumstances

▫️The President of the Russian Federation noted that this applies to all manufacturers, because if someone agrees that the consumer will determine the price, this will lead to the collapse of the industry itself.

▫️“This investment will come to naught, all this will lead to a catastrophic surge in prices, this is a stupid, ill-conceived and uncalculated proposal. It's not about us, it's about the general state of the world energy markets, it's bad for them,"Russian President Vladimir Putin said

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 13:51 utc | 296

Patroklos 74

Oh, that is funny. Patroklos instructing others to be civil and courteous. LOL

Posted by: Zed | Dec 9 2022 13:52 utc | 297

@ Ursula Zandt | Dec 9 2022 13:33 utc | 320

How long will their training be?

2 months refresher & update training with emphasis on lessons learned by veterans of the last ten months. Already completed.

Are they being trained now? (and another question, 'What are they doing now?')

See above. Excluding the ~70-90k additional volunteers funded & sponsored via individual republics, ~26,000 were used to reinforce the existed ~100 BTGS with two full infantry companies each, so as to better take & hold ground.

The remaining ~276,000 have already been formed as:

~300 reinforced BTGs, or
25 Divisions, or
6 Armies (comprising 4 Divs plus supplementary units each), or

A combination of the above as STAVKA re Strategic/Operational Plans, sees fit.

Are they destined exclusively for support roles or will they be sent to the front?

The front. Elements already in combat. Elements already identified in Belarus & Nth & Sth of FEBA, likely majority in near rear, on alert.

I fear that people feel the recruits will be a game changer when...well...recruits are recruits.

Your 'fears' are utterly unfounded.

They are NOT recruits. They are all recalled active reservists, young, fit & healthy, who have all previously completed a minimum of 1 years prior full-time service (obligatory conscription or contracted professional) within the last 5 years.

They are recalled veterans with updated refresher training from current combat veterans re SMO. NOT recruits.

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 9 2022 13:52 utc | 298

Outraged @ 310

A new top post will be up in a couple hours. The thread has 320 comments. The discussion wanders. It just happens. My post that was being replied to had enough of a connection to main thread I think it passes. The reply picked up one part of my post. Good enough. Even though the reply is a red herring and a distraction. So what. I am more concerned about the attention this place gets from the three letter agencies. Some of their operatives are clever and participate as regulars at the bar. Go after them.

Pay attention to those who cheerlead for the obvious operatives.

Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 9 2022 13:53 utc | 299

According to enemy reports - there is still no confirmation from our side - in the east of Artemovsk (promka, along Lumumba Street) we advance. Ukros declared our control over the furniture factory and part of the building ceramics plant.

Ours are slowly pressing the Ukrainians in the east of the city to provide a flank for operations in the northeast of Artyomovsk, on Podgornoye in the first place.

In the Kleshcheevka area, the enemy still holds positions, but the direct Kleshcheevka-Artyomovsk road is no longer accessible to the Ukrainians. They, however, cling to these positions. after the loss of these defenders, holding Artemovsk will not be a trivial task, eating excessive resources.

And these resources are already needed west of Kurdyumovka and Ozaryanovka, where, according to preliminary information, our troops have crossed the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal and are probing the enemy’s defenses in the direction of Belaya Gora and Dyleevka. And the "troika" hammers along the Mayorsk-Dzerzhinsk road.

Considering the stated goals of the Russian army here - pinning down the enemy forces and defeating his manpower - an offensive south of Artyomovsk may turn out to be more important than fighting for Artyomovsk itself.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 9 2022 13:53 utc | 300

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