Ukraine Open Thread 2022-220
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on December 8, 2022 at 15:51 UTC | Permalink
next page »Greetings to the Esteemed Community!
I have a request. When talking about NATO and Ukraine (or other places) the counter argument of "There are other ways to project military power" is often used in response the the idea that NATO is not crazy enough to have a full-on clash with Russian, so Russia should not be worried about the NATO expansion. Generally, I feel that the counter argument is good because any military force, even if potential, create deterrence which affects the politics. In terms of specific examples, I can think of a situation where Ukraine is in NATO, and certain factions in Ukraine continue putting pressure on the Russian-speaking population and Russia cannot do anything about it militarily because of Article 5. However, I am not educated/smart enough to work out more examples. Have you seen anything like articles/books where the "other ways to project military power" would be studied, classified, and discussed with examples? Could you refer me to those? Application to potential scenarios in Ukraine would be a huge bonus. Thanks much in advance!
Posted by: velizhan | Dec 8 2022 16:15 utc | 2
Things look bad for Ukraine in Bakmut right now. Last time things looked so bad for them was Lisichansk. There is a rumor that Ukraine is plugging the front with totally untrained conscripts. I hope that RU's small successes on the Donbass front are not only happening because Ukraine is pooling its best troops and weapons for a major offensive elsewhere, like it did a few months ago. The Zaphorozie front has been very quiet lately. A successful UA drive to Melitopol would be very bad.
Posted by: catdog | Dec 8 2022 16:21 utc | 3
hmmm...after Pres Putin chat with Scholz
Germany greenlights Ukrainian strikes inside Russia
Kiev is not obligated to limit the conflict to its own territory, says the government in Berlin.
Even though Hungary blocked the 18b proposed funding from central EU funds--note individual countries could do so--/Spriter/
@Spriter0000
28m
EU member states plan to increase the fund for military aid to Ukraine by at least two billion euros, which could happen as early as next week, when they meet in Brussels on December 12, "Bloomberg" reports.
And even though
/Spriter/
@Spriter0000
1h
The stockpiles of weapons in the European Union that are delivered to Ukraine are exhausted, because the European military-industrial complex has not been adequately financed for years, said the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell.
Spriter/
@Spriter0000
2h
Germany announced the provision of a new package of military assistance to Ukraine.
The help package includes:
▪️18 self-propelled guns RCH 155 155 mm
▪️20 Dingo armored personnel carriers
▪️2 tank tractors M1070 Oshkosh
▪️80 pickups
▪️90 drone countermeasures
Posted by: Jo | Dec 8 2022 16:22 utc | 4
Posted by: velizhan | Dec 8 2022 16:15 utc | 2
I don't think that "the idea that NATO is not crazy enough to have a full-on clash with Russia" gets much traction here, but good luck to you.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 8 2022 16:26 utc | 5
@ Bemildred | Dec 8 2022 16:26 utc | 5
nato is just waiting for a crack to jump in... they already have 1/2 a leg fully in.. bullshit artists, thru and thru..
Posted by: james | Dec 8 2022 16:34 utc | 6
Southfront had an interesting comment from a DPR commander, https://southfront.org/critical-look-at-russian-military-command-of-mr-strelkov-who-returned-from-front-lines/ (assuming the U.S. State Dept let's you read it).
As a Russophile, I think it is important not to fall into group think. It basically says that Russian soldiers are confused about the mission and goals and notes that Ukrainian soldiers have the advantage of clarity.
This rings true to me. Think about it. If you are a Ukrainian you hear, 'Russia is invading you need to protect your country'. Can anyone actually refute this?
If you are a Russian soldier, you are told, 'you are doing something good' without being told what victory looks like, should I advance or do a tactical retreat?
I've heard many say that Russia is clever by confusing Ukraine and NATO, okay but the flip side is that their own troops are kept in the dark.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Dec 8 2022 16:34 utc | 7
I don't think that "the idea that NATO is not crazy enough to have a full-on clash with Russia" gets much traction here, but good luck to you.Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 8 2022 16:26 utc | 5
This is not my argument, this is the argument of people who are still into the "shining city on a hill" idea.
Posted by: velizhan | Dec 8 2022 16:34 utc | 8
reply to 3
Where are the Ukr. tanks? They were using 60+ yr old T-64s ( and been given 60 yr old Hawk missiles). As above, Germany is donating more "pickups"??? It looks like they have no ability to sustain any offensive and if they don't stop wasting lives in Donbass, they won't have a defensive capability either.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 8 2022 16:35 utc | 9
Ukraine goes low-technical. . .here . .Just give them the target coordinates.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 8 2022 16:37 utc | 10
There is a rumor that Ukraine is plugging the front with totally untrained conscripts..
Posted by: catdog | Dec 8 2022 16:21 utc | 3
Not a rumour.
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇲⚡ The founder and head of Mozart PMC, retired US Marine Corps Colonel Andrew Milburn, in an interview with American Newsweek, said that it is "not excluded" that Mozart fighters became a target for Wagner PMC."Now there is not a single hotel in the Donbass that would allow us to stay with them, as they were told that we were targets."
The fact that the three hotels where the Mozart had previously been housed were under fire, Milburn called an accident.
He also added that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering "incredibly high losses" in Artemovsk, and untrained recruits are coming as replenishment, 80% of whom "have never fired before."
https://t.me/intelslava/42503
Posted by: Down South | Dec 8 2022 16:39 utc | 11
Shadowy deals between US and RF under the table have been going on with this basketball player and Bout guy exchange. He, as it seems, did the best when Jeltzin was in power, having access to the vast post-Soviet mostly Ukrainian arsenals.
What is the point of having this guy back to RF?
Is it something he knows who was where and doing what in those days of 'anarchy' during 90s in USSR, time will tell.
As for RF liberating the now RF territory, what Peskov reiterated in his daily brief, I doubt that would go just like that. Nor simple, nor easy.
What I mean is that RF military stopped advancing on the borders they imagined as it is good enough, while they could keep on the given momentum in late August after they got Ukrainians on the run.
What I understand is what the main interest there is to have the shortest and possibly furtherest buffered border with NATO territories and countries.
Ultimately, unless they crush Ukraine in total, every other freeze-up is pointless. I hope RF understands that.
Posted by: whirlX | Dec 8 2022 16:39 utc | 12
i just hope the shining city isn't glowing in the dark.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 8 2022 16:39 utc | 13
that said, i do think NATO has a marked preference for non americans dying in the wars it foments. but in a pinch, americans will do.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 8 2022 16:41 utc | 14
Why is Poland on a shopping spree for tanks? It seems hard to imagine it's all for defensive purposes
Posted by: Dwilland | Dec 8 2022 16:42 utc | 15
⚡️🏴☠️🇩🇪🏛 SITREP on the Alleged Coup Attempt in Germany⚡️♦️1. A coup with about 50 people? What would be the point of taking control of a parliament building where almost everyone is never present? A coup without the involvement of larger parts of the security organs would have no chance. The regime parties have hundreds of thousands of members. In addition, media control must be taken into account.
♦️2. The keyword "Reichsbürger" (Citizens of the Reich) makes us sit up and take notice. What is known about the people involved does not look like the so-called "Reichsbürger" scene. "Reichsbürger" is more a propaganda code word to discredit undesirable opinions.
♦️3. In the last coup attempt, the regime and the system media wanted to sell 7 Saxons with an air rifle as dangerous putschists, and oh wonder it worked. A coup d'état was averted and the rabble simply swallowed the obvious lies. The youngster "putschists" called themselves "Revolution Chemnitz" and came into the sights of the security agencies by communicating via Facebook.
🩸Ergo: Extreme caution is required when German propaganda media offer the information. What is really behind the events remains unclear for the time being. The earliest solid information can be expected from the lawyers of the accused.
⚖️ At first view, it seems to be a manoeuvre to divert attention from current problems and to intensify the intimidation of regime critics.
https://t.me/sitreports/1837
Posted by: Down South | Dec 8 2022 16:48 utc | 16
Posted by: Jo | Dec 8 2022 16:22 utc | 4
It was just as expected. Every country in eastern Europe, most of whom have Soviet legacy weapons sent them, pretty much everything in Ukraine. Now US MIC received a jackpot and is making multi hundred million euro deals every month or two with all those countries. They'll probably rack up tens of billions for years to come. But military spending can and will really wreck their society and economy.
Posted by: catdog | Dec 8 2022 16:21 utc | 3
If Ukraine is attempting to redo what they did during last summer, then they are throwing completely raw conscripts to "plug gaps". That will buy them some time and enable to build something up, but maybe Russians are better prepared for any new forces this time around compared to last Fall. So far per MOD reports and TG reports, all those attacks are getting wrecked every day, and artillery effectively holds them back.
US is the only real sustainable supplier for natostan and ukroreich. There's no economical benefits for anyone else. Not sure how US vehicle, APC, radar, howitzer, ammunition etc. production is holding up, but I'd guess it isn't covering a minority of what Ukraine is losing. Russia should eventually be able to strip the UAF of that equipment which will then increase their losses. Like in Soledar, currently. Everything is lacking.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 8 2022 16:50 utc | 17
Christian Chuba (7): "Strelkov" is disgruntled and unreliable. If any Russian soldier doesn't know what's at stake, he needs his head examined. The 1) presence of 46 Ukrainian bioweapons labs (which could unleash pathogens sufficient to kill millions of Russians), 2) the terrorism against Belgorad, the Crimean bridge, etc., 3) the Ukrainian bombing of nuclear power plants that could unleash radiation in Russia's direction, 4) the NATO intervention in the war, 5) the unprovoked and continuing sanctioning of the Russian economy,6) the torture and summary execution of Russian civilians and soldiers, and a host of other hostile actions are more than enough for the average Russian soldier to realize the existential threat to his homeland. The fact that over 80,000 Russian volunteers joined the partial mobilization in August attests to the fact Russians know very well the stakes in this conflict--and why they must demand the unconditional surrender of Ukraine and the dissolution of NATO.
Posted by: FHTEX | Dec 8 2022 16:53 utc | 18
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 8 2022 16:35 utc | 9
My understanding is that T-64's are still pretty good tanks. Russia has been modernizing and using T-62's which are far inferior.
I see a report that Germany JUST announced that they're sending eighty Leo 2's. Perhaps they already have done so. Certainly hohols have been training as Leo 2 operators for months now.
We could see the Leo 2 donation as a good thing that NATO has felt the need to escalate to providing MBTs, but the Abrams and Bradleys in Romania and Poland are probably not far behind.
Posted by: catdog | Dec 8 2022 16:56 utc | 19
Over 90 Polish mercenaries (probably regular troops dressed up as mercenaries) killed by the RF in Kharkiv region.
https://ria.ru/20221208/naemniki-1837200714.html
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 8 2022 16:58 utc | 20
@catdog | Dec 8 2022 16:21 utc | 3
Russia is having this success now because it was able to consolidate it's forces and inject fresh troops, while mauling the advancing Ukrainians. Earlier Ukrainian 'victories' should be seen in that light. Ukraine's recaptured territories have proven to be nothing but abject misery for Ukrainians. (Then factor in Russia starting to go after infrastructure targets on top of that.)
By most accounts a large majority of the mobilized Russians and new volunteers haven't entered combat yet. I think that Scott Ritter has the gist of it when he speculates that the Russian general staff were uncomfortable waisting Russian lives when there was a large force of new troops coming down the pipe. While the loss of Kherson city was awkward for the Russians, saving the lives of your troops while you're assembling a large new force is just sensible policy. Telling troops to stand to the last for bombed out farmland, with new forces in the pipe, is a bad idea on several levels.
If the Ukrainians are pulling some of their better quality forces back it will be to blunt where that Russian hammer blow falls. I suspect it won't matter much-- A one, or several, pronged Russian offensive with North of 200K men (about as many as the Russians had at the start if the SMO), that stays out of the cities, will obliterate anything the Ukraun has that chooses to engage. Especially given the current state of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian forces.
Posted by: Another James | Dec 8 2022 17:03 utc | 21
Posted by: FHTEX | Dec 8 2022 16:53 utc | 18
I think what Strelkov is getting at is that there is a fear among the Russian people that incompetent negotiators in the RU government will piss away gains that the soldiers bled for as another "goodwill gesture". RU soldiers understand what victory looks like, but they aren't sure that the RU government does.
Posted by: catdog | Dec 8 2022 17:04 utc | 22
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Dec 8 2022 16:34 utc | 7
The Russian military has always been tight lipped about their operational and strategic intent. Russian soldiers are intentionally kept in the dark for security and are often given diversionary tasks as masking operations to hide the armies real intent. All military forces do this but the Russians are especially good at diversion.
People these days as compared to the 1940's when Russia last fought a major war are used to having information at their fingertips.
Conversation that used to be shared around the lunch table among soldiers can now be tweeted worldwide in an instant. Soldiers today are even posting videos of the view from their trench as artillery rains down and it's seen by millions. Propagandists can use this and magnify the problem ... negative talk has a tendency to propagate exponentially faster then positive talk.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 8 2022 17:05 utc | 23
This is not my argument, this is the argument of people who are still into the "shining city on a hill" idea.
Posted by: velizhan | Dec 8 2022 16:34 utc | 8
I didn't say it was your argument, I said I don't think the bar thinks that is an interesting argument, but I can't really speak for them. I think that argument is nuts. I think it is nuts to begin with: they have provoked a war with Russia. The fact nobody wants to call it a war is nothing new, wars are always "police actions" or whatnot these days, just like in the west.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 8 2022 17:07 utc | 24
In a recent interview with George Galloway, posted Dec.6, Scott Ritter stated that “there is a petition that has been signed by Ukrainian wives and mothers, that are asking for the status of upwards of 320,000 men. They want to know where have they gone. What’s happened to them, why aren’t they writing home, why aren’t they phoning home? These are missing.”
Posted by: rhoro | Dec 8 2022 17:16 utc | 25
Link to Scott Ritter interview on MOATS. Quote at 03:09
Posted by: rhoro | Dec 8 2022 17:25 utc | 26
Posted by: Another James | Dec 8 2022 17:03 utc | 21
I do not think the Russians will attempt a deep offensive in the near future. Surovikin and others have talked only of a slow grind. I think Russia is pursuing this approach because they believe a slow, attritional war is low-risk for the stronger side (Russia). During the 80 Years War's second half, the Dutch had the same thinking. They avoided open field battles, which could easily swing in either direction, and fought only long, attritional sieges. There were many famous field battles in this same period right next door in Germany, and the results of those battles wildly shifted the balance of power each time. Back to Russia, an big offensive has too much risk of a disastrous failure. It would be very satisfying to finally see one of these mythical "cauldrons" that shills like Saker used to assure us were happening but I don't think we will until Ukraine gets months more of grinding down.
Posted by: Catdog | Dec 8 2022 17:26 utc | 27
reply to 19
Perhaps you could provide a link, as 80 tanks from Germany seems tentative. Any tank is better than none - which looks like Ukraine's situation right now.
I do wonder about 320000 men missing/gone. Perhaps the number killed is far higher than the 100K figure
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 8 2022 17:42 utc | 28
Posted by: Dwilland | Dec 8 2022 16:42 utc | 15 "Why is Poland on a shopping spree for tanks? It seems hard to imagine it's all for defensive purposes"
My opinion: 1) Poland has very bad memories of the decades of Soviet occupation. 2) Poland gave several hundred tanks to Ukraine this year. 3) Poland wants co-production to make tanks so that they can give them to away like they did with the Soviet era tanks if the need came up again in the future. I think Poland would give more tanks to Ukraine but the original manufacturer (Germany) won't let them.
If you watch Russian TV, yesterday, on one show, they were taking about the Russian Army going all the way to Lisbon
Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 8 2022 17:53 utc | 29
My expectation is that Russia has the next 10-15% of Ukraine mapped out for them to take next.
The territory will be defensible for Russia, expensive for the US to assault, and harder for the US to terror bomb western Russia (used to be East Ukraine).
Posted by: Woke American | Dec 8 2022 17:56 utc | 30
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 8 2022 17:42 utc | 28
80 Leo 2's is reported by UA propaganda organ Nexta.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1600850044151799808?cxt=HHwWgICxxcWorrcsAAAA
Posted by: catdog | Dec 8 2022 17:59 utc | 31
Republicofscotland no. 20
(probably regular troops dressed up as mercenaries)
Just wondering. Is there an official uniform for mercenaries?
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Dec 8 2022 18:03 utc | 32
I do not think the Russians will attempt a deep offensive. Surovikin and others have talked only of a slow grind. to Russia, a big offensive has too much risk of a disastrous failure.
Posted by: Catdog | Dec 8 2022 17:26 utc | 27
---
Agreed. Simple question: who is "winning" right now? So, why change? unless something else develops, this could go on for 5, 10, 25 years.
In the meantime, the world goes on. Every day, another event/decision occurs that weakens the dollar standard. As everyone here understands, this is the true battle.
Usa demographics are changing; usa politics are dead. Usa culture is degraded; around 50% no longer believe in the state.
This is a one way street. If you're not a yank, if you don't live here in a place undergoing rapid change, you might still think of the US as a monolithic empire.
Now, as to what comes after the fall, this is where I believe our commie contingent are dead wrong. Rather than the end of the age of plunder, we will see a global fight for remaining natural resources.
With the chosen thrown out or debased, the return of traditional Anglo Saxon supremacy is waiting in the wings
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 8 2022 18:07 utc | 33
@rhoro | Dec 8 2022 17:16 utc | 25
If 320k are really missing then who is keeping Russian forces stuck far from Donbass borders these days? Or why did then run from Kherson if Ukr has in the range of 300k "missing"?
missing would be dead or in a Russian jail. Ukr has officially said the retarded number of 10k losses, but everyone is listed as missing in order not to pay the family anything and hide the deaths from the Western public, to feed the MSM stories.
I think the wounded numbers are lower than dead numbers because they are forced by nato to attack and there is almost no medical help available. Just remember that many hundreds died and a lot of equipment was lost trying to land on Snake island just because Bojo wanted some news. Since the beginning of the operation most of Ukr dead and wounded were left on the field. Ukr soldiers often placed a grenade or mine under the dead bodies.
Posted by: rk | Dec 8 2022 18:08 utc | 34
@ Down South | Dec 8 2022 16:48 utc | 16
It's a pretext so Scholtz can crackdown on Germany's Right. In this case, Germany's Right is defined as anyone who opposes Scholtz's support of Ukraine's Right (Reich).
Posted by: ? | Dec 8 2022 18:08 utc | 35
Who is this Viktor Bout they’ve just exchanged for the American girl and why does he merit Russia’s interest? I’d look him up in Wikipedia but, looking at the BBC’s characterisation of the chap I somehow suspect it wouldn’t be worth the effort.
Posted by: CC | Dec 8 2022 18:15 utc | 36
@ Catdog | Dec 8 2022 17:26 utc | 27
Prigozhin's proud as a peacock of his meat grinder. He brags about how a USA citizen, the former USMC general in command of Wagner's foreign brigade, knows all of NATO's dirty tricks.
Posted by: ? | Dec 8 2022 18:17 utc | 37
unimperator @17--
NATO nations can order as much as they want from the Empire's MIC, but that MIC won't be able to deliver those orders for years because it lacks capacity. Essentially, NATO will be bereft of any new equipment capable of making a difference, which leaves it very vulnerable. And of course, Russia is well aware of NATO's problem.
Lavrov brought forth a very important point in his answer to the last question at the Primokov Readings yesterday that I didn't bother to highlight:
Security guarantees were contained in the very Ukrainian project that we were ready to support. But they were categorically forbidden to fulfill it. French President Emmanuel Macron says that when this is over, we will have to discuss security in Europe, including Russia's security guarantees. The key phrase is "when it's over." According to Emmanuel Macron, O. Scholz, Jomart Borrell and other European figures, "this" should end? Only by defeating Russia with weapons in its hands, Ukraine can allegedly begin negotiations. They are told how to behave.There is bifurcation in the public space. From time to time, Emmanuel Macron encourages the start of some negotiations. When asked why, he says: not immediately now the talks, but "later". A man with a telling surname, John Cleverly, the British Foreign Secretary, makes ambiguous statements. It is difficult to see consistency in the actions of the West, except for one thing – they still cherish the hope of defeating Russia "on the battlefield." Some say it head-on, some don't. [My Emphasis]
People like SeanAU completely miss Lavrov's points and think he's useless instead of being the #1 diplomate on the planet. But when we look at what's uttered by those in the gutter, we see their words and goals differ little from Hitler's. Russia's leaders have no illusions despite all the attempts by many here to say otherwise. Lavrov's recitation of the diplomatic history since 1990 was a masterful effort to prove Russia did all it could to try and avoid the current conflict. The warmongers are led by the Outlaw US Empire, and Lavrov proved that well beyond doubt, and that's precisely what SeanAU missed, and he instead had the temerity to call Lavrov a coward. The BIG PROBLEM is how to bring about the demise of the Outlaw US Empire without events escalating to nuclear war. Russia with all its advanced weapons could probably defeat the Empire with a First Strike; but inevitably, some warheads will leak though and cause heavy damage to Russians. And one of Putin's priorities is to not allow the Russian people to be devastated yet again--Russian Civil War, Famines, Great Patriotic War, Neoliberal Rape after USSR's fall all told amount to 100 million people killed and many more devastated to the point where perhaps another 100 million births never occurred. Why the hell promote the wellbeing of Russians only to throw that effort away? I seem to be the only one at MoA who sees this issue and how it impacts policy making.
Putin et al will be glad to accommodate NATO destroying itself within the land it tried to make into an Anti-Russia and will eventually liberate Ukraine from the Empire's grip. As mentioned many times, Russia must demonstrate to the RoW its actions occur within the framework of morality and the agreed rules of war. The reason it has many on its side is because of Lavrov's detailed talks that stick to the facts.
IMO, Putin, Lavrov and crew know this struggle will need to be completed by the next generation of leaders, so they must set the parameters. In many ways this is a Crusade to dethrone what's called Western Civilization. And key world leaders understand that.
@ rhoro | Dec 8 2022 17:16 utc | 25
320,000 Ukranian soldiers not calling home -- that's a gut-wrench and a half. Only one of the huge news-stories summarily ignored by our putative media. Ritter has said Ukraine is over, regardless of how it goes from here: you'll never have eastern and western provinces together again. Now Putin tells Russians this operation could go on awhile -- in a message possibly meant for non-recipients in "the West" -- and Kiev's mayor says the population doesn't yet need to evacuate. Hoo-ray.
I find it awesomely ludicrous when outraged pundits accuse Russia of deploying "General Winter" into this theater. Honestly, have none of these so-called reporters read any history at all, even recent history? Have none of them given any thought to what it meant when Russia opted to burn Moscow down rather than cede it to Napoleon? I know: it's a silly question -- of course the vacuity of imperial pundits has no bottom. But I'd bet awareness of how winter works with warfare lies quite deep in the Russian consciousness.
It gets to the point so much reality -- historical and current -- gets swept under the rug, the mass of US Americans lead lives of delusional desperation. (Thoreauetically, at any rate.) People who unabashedly violate our rigid infonorms, such as Ritter and Galloway, are scarce and vanishing antelopes on the prairie.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Dec 8 2022 18:20 utc | 39
Posted by: CC | Dec 8 2022 18:15 utc | 36
Hollywood got into it and you know what happens when Hollywood writes history, according to them Patton alone won WWII and almost made it to Moscow. Merchant of Death they say, of course I do not watch Hollywood movies but I can imagine what's all about. A businessman, just like Khasogghi, but our sons of bitches hang around Monaco and Marbella, while theirs do it in obscure African or South East Asian places and of course they are merchants of death not businesmen received with red carpets whereever they go.
Posted by: Paco | Dec 8 2022 18:20 utc | 40
Aleph_Null no. 39
"But I'd bet awareness of how winter works with warfare lies quite deep in the Russian consciousness."
The Siege of Leningrad.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Dec 8 2022 18:36 utc | 41
"A one, or several, pronged Russian offensive with North of 200K men ". Wirh their amazing new logistic chain suddenly materializing. Trust the plan. Lol.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 18:40 utc | 42
Oh, and: "Essentially, NATO will be bereft of any new equipment capable of making a difference, which leaves it very vulnerable. And of course, Russia is well aware of NATO's problem".
Are you joking? We have mountainhalls full of military equipment in reserve in Nato. Not even engaging first echelon tech in Ukraine yet.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 18:46 utc | 43
The reason this war has become so dangerous in regard to the possibility of escalation to the nuclear level is because the bluff of the old doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction has been called by the neocon crazies. MAD used to put a brake on provocations and threats because no one would be crazy enough to risk their own guaranteed destruction.
But the neocons have decided to keep pushing the boundaries and ignore previous restraints to military escalation against another nuclear armed nation because they are assuming that no one would be crazy enough to use nukes no matter what they do so previous restraints can be ignored because they think they are still protected by the MAD doctrine so there is effectively no red line.
How long before they decide that using one or two low yield nukes is acceptable because they think no one would be crazy enough to retaliate with a full nuclear response to end life on earth as we know it over the use of one or two low yield battlefield nukes? I’m not sure how we climb down from this scenario.
Posted by: John G | Dec 8 2022 18:48 utc | 44
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 8 2022 18:17 utc | 38
Good post: Lavrov is an extraordinary diplomat, made even more so when measured against the infantile blundering of the entire western corps. NATO/US/UK leadership lacks history, context, Realpolitik, the long view, pragmatism. All of them see the world through a puerile Hollywood lens and push their baby boomer woke moralism that casts all wars as oversimplified re-runs of ww2, with goodies and baddies and clear priorities. They simply cannot grasp complexity and have no capacity for empathy with opponents which a diplomat needs.
Russia will need to take or reshape all of Ukraine. To leave even a rump Galicia unreformed will allow the cancer to return. The Augean stables must be flushed clean—of Nazis, mafias, OUN, and all the CIA/MI6 tumours that riddle the place. Then, as in Mariupol, the people of Ukraine can be offered what they've never really had: a functioning and predictable state framework within which to build a life and be happy. Some of them will remember the old days, not perfect but with Russian help it could work. The alternative is full exposure to the rapacity of IMF strip mining and slavery under oligarchic mafia fiefdoms (i.e., now). If Ukrainians properly reflected on this war they'd realise Russia is fighting for grassroots Ukrainian independence and sovereignty.
But Russia needs to go all the way to the Polish border.
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 18:53 utc | 45
How long before the usa decides that using one or two low yield nukes is acceptable
Posted by: John G | Dec 8 2022 18:48 utc | 44
---
I thought this notion was exhausted months ago
For the umpteenth time, the expectation was the Russian central state would collapse due to economic sanctions, cultural isolation and "helpul" color social disruption
Plan B was to use up stocks, force Russia to spend limited resources and play for time. Well, times up so on to the other target
The usa is like a divorcing couple deciding to split the kids. While Russia can go to the libs, China is the target near and dear to the majority of conservative americans
I mean, take me for example; I have no real beef with the ruskies. I know we need their shit to keep the dollar system going, but do we really want to fight
Now, the ccp is another story. Here we have a truly alien culture/people, one that lives entirely differently than the west
I say Russia fades away while we turn our attention To the east. Russia will get all of Ukraine, the gas might quietly go back on in Germany, but the real play will be Hollywood
Some day when putin is gone, the new leader will have to once again deal with the centuries old attraction of aligning with the west.
I take this multi polar stuff with a sense it's just a negotiating ploy to be given more power & recognition in the dollar/Euro world
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 8 2022 19:07 utc | 46
"Lavrov is an extraordinary diplomat, made even more so when measured against the infantile blundering of the entire western corps. NATO/US/UK leadership lacks history, context, Realpolitik, the long view, pragmatism".
Are you joking, again? Do you think Russia does not have logistic problems? NATO is for once functioning in antifascism, its nice.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 19:08 utc | 47
To Fnord73
I guess if you believe NATO has mountain caverns filled with ready to rock and roll mil equipment then it's fine since there isn't any huge, well supplied Russian army just waiting for the ground to freeze.
But if there is a huge push scheduled for winter conditions then NATO sure as hell isn't planning on doing anything about it. If they were, now's the time you'd be seeing armoured columns rolling out onto rail platforms.
The slow grind continues. At a 20 or 30 to one casualty ratio (with ukies dying and Russian getting patched up and rotated out of theater wearing a hero medal) Russia can do this for months.
Posted by: comrade simba | Dec 8 2022 19:09 utc | 48
Today is Zakharova Day--MFA's Briefing which begins with a long indictment of Merkel's Treason to Humanity. IMO, it must be 100% pasted:
December 7 a "revelation" has been published worthy of starting today's briefing with these lines.Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was in power for more than 16 years, directly participated in the meetings of the Normandy format and in the process of developing the Minsk Agreements. And so she shared what Berlin really thought and on the basis of what positions it acted in this direction.
Angela Merkel said: "The Minsk agreement of 2014 was an attempt (I think that we are talking about the Minsk agreement of 2015). give time to Ukraine. They used this time to become stronger, as can be seen today. The Ukraine of 2014-2015 is not Ukraine today. As we saw during the fighting in the Debaltseve area in early 2015, Russia could have easily captured them then. I doubt that NATO countries could have done as much then as they are doing now to help Ukraine. It was clear to all of us that this was a frozen conflict, that the problem had not been solved. This is what gave Ukraine precious time." It's not just a revelation and a remembrance, but a confession that is so clearly voiced for the first time. Yes, the Kiev regime has repeatedly said that it did not intend to fulfill the Minsk agreements, but the West... The same countries and their leaders who were part of the Normandy format have never stated this so clearly and articulatedly. Now we have the recognition of a person, leader and leader of the country, who had a tremendous influence on the political "ferments" within the "sovereign" Ukraine. These politicians manually led many political processes, including the change of power in Ukraine. This recognition belongs to a person in the depths of the country's system who formed the very Ukrainian elites who "created history" of modern Ukraine, or vice versa – antihistory. The same state and its leader who distributed residence permits, passports and all other "benefits" to those whom they either abandoned or recruited in Ukraine in order to conduct an appropriate policy. Today we have received a testimony from a person regarding everything that was worked out and presented to the world as agreements and became part of international law in the form of a UN Security Council resolution that is mandatory for implementation by every state (not just members of the Normandy format or only by the Kiev regime, but by everyone). The main thing in this revelation sounded – from the point of view of the West, it was all a falsification, a flirtation with the use of international law with the sole purpose of pumping up the Kiev regime with weapons. It was a "diversion" of the views of the international community from the real events on the territory of Ukraine, that humanitarian catastrophe, those endless murders that led to more than 13 thousand victims from all sides by 2022. This was done for only one purpose – to pump up the Kiev regime with weapons and to prepare politically to start hostilities, which we saw in early 2022, when the Kiev regime began to inflict deadly blows on the Donbass. This left no room for any other action than those taken by the Russian Federation: the recognition of these territories first as sovereign, then their admission into the Russian Federation so that they become truly protected, so that they can save their lives. This has been demonstrated to the world through international law and through existing mechanisms.
In this confession of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, there is something terrible: forgery (as a method of action of the West), machinations, manipulations, all kinds of distortions of the truth of law and law that can only be imagined. Even then in 2015, when they spent many hours of conversations, they knew that they would never do it and that they would pump the Kiev regime with weapons. They did not feel sorry for anyone: women, children, the civilian population of Donbass, and ukraine as a whole. They needed conflict. They were ready for it back in 2015.
Now there is a lot of talk about legal assessments of what is happening around Ukraine: "tribunals", etc. But "this" is a specific application for a tribunal. What Angela Merkel said in her interview is the testimony of a man who directly stated that everything done in 2014-2015 had one goal – to divert the views of the world community from real problems, to waste time and pump up the Kiev regime with weapons and lead the matter to a big conflict. That's the evidence.
It turns out that without any legal and legal mechanism, we have received invaluable proof of what we have been talking about for many years. It was a falsification of the West and a criminal provocation. In the beginning, this was in the form of the formation of a Ukrainian political elite alien to its national interests, working in the opposite direction than the aspiration of the interests of the people of Ukraine.
The main goal was to create a hotbed of tension in the region. This was followed by regime change despite the fact that the people of Ukraine were making the choice they needed. The West swept away all legitimately elected presidents and brought to power its puppets: V.A. Yushchenko, P.A. Poroshenko and then the "bloody, bunker" V.A. Zelensky. Eventually, they began to prepare for a big conflict.
Zakharova's very long update on Ukraine follows and begins with an indictment of the terrorist Victoria Nuland with whom Merkel ought to be grouped--Yes, I loathe both and have nothing but contempt for them as they are both criminals of the highest order--Enemies of Humanity.
Zakharova mentions Polish troops dressed in Ukie uniforms performing Nazi atrocities:
"The other day it was reported that in the city of Marganets, Dnipropetrovsk region, a detachment of special services and polish servicemen dressed in Ukrainian uniforms was sent to identify citizens sympathetic to Russia. I don't understand why they should be dressed in Ukrainian uniforms then? Proud of what you do? You supply weapons and spend money on this, participate in the development of plans "on the ground" (I am now addressing Warsaw). Let them walk in your uniform so that the whole world can see. What are you hiding behind Ukrainian camouflage? Walk with your head held high! Let the whole world see yours there and know who is involved in these massacres."
And the same ought to be said of all NATO, its flag also hides its reality, the flag of Hitler's Reich. And then there's this:
As part of the misanthropic policy of the Ukrainian authorities, a real repressive machine has been deployed in many regions of the country. Any criticism of the regime is perceived in a totalitarian context. Criminal cases are being initiated under articles on treason and collaboration. However, it is not enough for the Kiev regime to incite hatred only on its own territory. There were reports in the media that one of the Lviv private law firms launched the "Surrender Moskal" service. I understand that this is an ideological upgrade of the Myrotvorets website. It wasn't enough for them to do what they had done. Now they go further. The purpose of this resource is "the legal cleansing of Europe from potential invaders." This is the Third Reich, as it is – to cleanse Europe, and accordingly, the "best" part of humanity from the "genetically failed". This has all already been described – the ideology of fascists, nationalists and Nazis as it is. We've been through all of this before. Users of the resource are invited to write denunciations on Russian citizens living in European countries, whose data is supposed to be sent to the competent authorities of these countries. The question is: what kind of democracy or freedom are we talking about, if these practices in the worst traditions of dictatorships are now legalized in the territory controlled by the Kiev regime? On the other hand, it is "something" new. Probably, this is new for those who have not heard about how people were burned in the House of Trade Unions in Odessa. Who never knew about the existence of the site "Peacemaker" and had no idea that in the center of Ukrainian cities, including in the center of Kiev, people are shot who voice their opinion or come up with an alternative view of the situation. Perhaps for those people who have never heard of it, there is something new here. Not for us. It's not easy for us to hear about it, and for eight years we "beat all the bells." We state that this logic is now enshrined at the legislative level in a number of laws and by-laws stamped by the Kiev regime. Previously, this was attributed to certain groups that acted outside the law. They could not be found, and when they were found, they were chewed, released or cases fell apart before our eyes. Today, what has been tested for eight years has received the status of law. This is all exposed in the form of legal actions.
Come on out of the woodwork you defenders of NATO!! Come on out and defend these abominations! Come on!!! Be brave like those who murder innocents!! Come on!! Don't be shy!! You've shown your "faces" here before. So, Come on out!!
I see Fnord73 isn't afraid to admit being a Nazi. So, come on out all you vermin! Stand up and be counted!!
Six Armies. Six. Those numbers are sourced all over the internet. Hard to believe it's a gross over estimation.
Three more weeks till conditions are right for hell to be unleashed, though I suspect the line will just move 100K further than the eastern and southern oblasts, then pause to give NATO one last chance to capitulate.
Posted by: comrade simba | Dec 8 2022 19:15 utc | 51
It's easy to get propaganda fatigue these days. What with the internet being a multifaceted edged sword (so to speak) all manner of trolls, bots and vermin now clog the sites where information is exchanged. After years of sifting and analyzing it has become relatively easy to figure things out. But it can at times be toxic, so one might need to limits ones input. I rather like what seems to be the Russian attitude: Ignore most of the BS, answer back only when necessary, and above all else: hold fast and press on. The (not so) mighty Wurlitzer can sin and spin all it likes but in the end the realities on the ground win the day. Mountain halls of weapons, brave conscripts taking back empty territory and dashing drone raids all melt in the face of solid planning, logistics and strategy. Let them hoot and howl at every turn. Perseverance and Steel will win the day.
Posted by: Chevrus | Dec 8 2022 19:24 utc | 52
reply to 31
The twitter comment doesn't appear to say anything much new. They will supply tanks to Ukraine. They CAN supply 80. Will they? Hard to say. Germany has been less than enthusiastic. And if they supply them gradually, they won't have much impact. This piecemeal supply of often old, unreliable and widely varied equipment looks good in headlines but doesn't do much for Ukraine. The Leos are probably better quality than most of the junk they're stuck with.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 8 2022 19:26 utc | 53
reply to 43
Germany has had an awful reputation for maintaining its air force and failing combat readiness. Do a google. NATO is getting feeble.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 8 2022 19:33 utc | 54
Man, I had no idea Moonshine was sold in the Bar ;-)
Some Reality to sober up by.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCNRYW-_4-s
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 8 2022 19:36 utc | 55
Oh, and: "Essentially, NATO will be bereft of any new equipment capable of making a difference, which leaves it very vulnerable. And of course, Russia is well aware of NATO's problem".
Are you joking? We have mountainhalls full of military equipment in reserve in Nato. Not even engaging first echelon tech in Ukraine yet.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 18:46 utc | 43
Where????
AND....
What of those 340,000 Ukie soldiers who never call home??? never call mom.... sis... bro... wife... kids..
Who....
Are likely....
DEAD....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Dec 8 2022 19:40 utc | 56
Rarely have I read a more dishonest and repellent expose than the one by Olaf Sholz in Foreign Affairs.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/olaf-scholz-global-zeitenwende-how-avoid-new-cold-war
Does anyone have the Merkel interview to Der Spiegel in English to share. It is important to compare the two, and then both of them to what Lavrov and Putin are, and have been saying. That is, to look at the facts about Ukraine and everything else Sholz is on about.
So Germany wants to be guarantor of security in Europe! Nobody asked me if I want that and I'm a European. I don't want Germany to guarantee European security, or anyone else. I want security based on genuine adherence to the law, on accountable government, on cooperation with all states based on equality, mutual respect and mutual interests for the wellbeing of the citizens of all countries. Security based in truth, not a pile of lies that keep growing.
Posted by: JB | Dec 8 2022 19:43 utc | 57
«where Ukraine is in NATO, and certain factions in Ukraine continue putting pressure on the Russian-speaking population and Russia cannot do anything about it militarily because of Article 5.»
The North Atlantic Treaty is just a piece of paper and means very little. Its only meaning is that under the U.N. Charter no country can use military force except three cases are allowed:
* When authorized by the security council.
* For its own defense.
* To help the defense of allies, under "article 51", which allows purely defensive alliances.
The North Atlantic Treaty in an "article 51" treaty, like that existed between the RF and LPR and DPR, and *allows* signatories to help defend other signatories and does not require it, for the obvious reason that the USA, who wrote the treaty, would never sign a treaty *obliging* them to defend one of their vassals.
Also under "article 51" signatories are allowed to help other countries only for purely defensive purposes within their own territories.
So for example if several polish and english brigades were to be in Ukraine and were wiped out by the RF military, that would not be a case of defense under "article 51", because the brigades would help a non-signatory country, and would not be defending their own countries, so the presence of those brigades in Ukraine would be illegal under the U.N. Charter.
But the legalities (which are arguable to some extent) don't matter that much, see the invasion and dismemberment of Yugoslavia by NATO in the 1990s.
Posted by: Blissex | Dec 8 2022 19:44 utc | 58
"What of those 340,000 Ukie soldiers who never call home??"
See, thats when you are Jade Helming bigtime again. 340 000 dead ukrainians, and nobody noticed? You are making up numbers. Just saying.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 19:48 utc | 59
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 19:08 utc | 47
NATO is for once functioning in antifascism, its nice.
???
Happy for you to disagree politely, but please write something that makes sense.
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 19:49 utc | 60
«Angela Merkel said: "The Minsk agreement of 2014 was an attempt (I think that we are talking about the Minsk agreement of 2015). give time to Ukraine. They used this time to become stronger, as can be seen today. [...]”»
Sakharova can quote Merkel as much as she wants, or Poroshenko who boasted in the same way, but it does not matter: as far as the "western" public it is all "fake news" by the "orcs", if they ever get to know that. As to the non-western audiences in the "third world" so many countries have been targeted by USA "freedom fighting" operations that they know pretty well what to expect.
Posted by: Blissex | Dec 8 2022 19:51 utc | 61
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 8 2022 19:14 utc | 50
"I see Fnord73 isn't afraid to admit being a Nazi. So, come on out all you vermin! Stand up and be counted!!"
Could you perhaps quote the part where Fnord73 admitted that?
I didn't see anything of the kind. Not even the semi-necessary moaning about
Global mammon/Jews all the way down, that seems to be almost de riguer in these parts to be taken seriously.
Or was it disagreeing with you? I rather suspect it was. No greater offense to some. Which trait you have shown repeatedly.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 8 2022 19:51 utc | 62
JB, I would read the Foreign Affairs with a smile. There is a lot of wishful thinking in there.
"GOOD FOR THE CLIMATE, BAD FOR RUSSIA
Russia’s war has not only unified the EU, NATO, and the G-7 in opposition to his aggression; it has also catalyzed changes in economic and energy policy that will hurt Russia in the long run—and give a boost to the vital transition to clean energy that was already underway. Right after taking office as German chancellor in December 2021, I asked my advisers whether we had a plan in place should Russia decide to stop its gas deliveries to Europe. The answer was no, even though we had become dangerously dependent on Russian gas deliveries. "
"Putin wanted to divide Europe into zones of influence and to divide the world into blocs of great powers and vassal states. Instead, his war has served only to advance the EU. At the European Council in June 2022, the EU granted Ukraine and Moldova the status of “candidate countries” and reaffirmed that Georgia’s future lies with Europe. We also agreed that the EU accession of all six countries of the western Balkans must finally become a reality, a goal to which I am personally committed. That is why I have revived the so-called Berlin Process for the western Balkans, which intends to deepen cooperation in the region, bringing its countries and their citizens closer together and preparing them for EU integration."
That articles almost reads like a plot in a Batman and Robin cartoon episode.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qddas1Gwmys
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 8 2022 19:53 utc | 63
"But the neocons have decided to keep pushing the boundaries and ignore previous restraints to military escalation against another nuclear armed nation because they are assuming that no one would be crazy enough to use nukes no matter what they do so previous restraints can be ignored because they think they are still protected by the MAD doctrine so there is effectively no red line." John G
I'd like to add one word to this: ". . . because they are assuming that no one ELSE would be crazy enough to use nukes. . . " The neocons also don't understand escalatory dominance. They assume that for Russia it's a power game, as it is for them. For Russia it's existential. They don't want to but will take it all the way if pushed to that.
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 8 2022 19:57 utc | 64
Cracks forming in the heart(land) of the empire? Interesting to followup with the author or news outlet to see if they suffer repercussions.
https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2022/11/30/maiden-azov-battalion-neonazi-donetsk-luhansk/stories/202212010013
Here's more from the Q&A segment of Zakharova's briefing:
"The once peaceful economic European project, through the efforts of its current leaders, has turned into a military-financial instrument for implementing the geopolitical plans of the United States and NATO. A year ago, it was said that the EU was becoming an economic "department" of NATO. Now it is becoming a military-political, financial division of the alliance. Once again, we did not hear about a peaceful settlement in Ukraine from Jean-Pierre Borrell. He is a diplomat, he can only talk about "war". He probably doesn't need to wear a suit. As he put on military camouflage, let him go so that everyone can see what diplomacy is doing in Brussels."
Sad to see there's no outrage, that so many willingly swallow the snake oil offered them. I'll post the following then leave the bar to the Nazis and their abettors:
Question: There is alleged evidence in the foreign media that Russia is involved in the explosive packages sent to various institutions in Spain. Why is such information disseminated and on what grounds?When will the narrative that Russia is to blame for everything become obsolete? Where else will they find our footprint?
Maria Zakharova: When there are facts, then we will officially comment. At the same time, we have facts about how the citizens of Ukraine and people associated with this country are engaged not just in mailings, but in direct threats, blackmail, elements of extremist activity against Russian embassies.
If anyone is interested in who in the West speaks out on this matter, I can provide phone numbers, addresses from which our employees, colleagues and I personally receive such threats. Our embassies in the EU countries are under siege by forces linked to Ukraine. When Western media or politicians speak out on this matter, they will need to provide facts about what people associated with Ukraine are "doing". We have plenty of them.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Dec 8 2022 16:34 utc | 7
«says that Russian soldiers are confused about the mission and goals and notes that Ukrainian soldiers have the advantage of clarity.»
The war of aggression by Ukraine against the Donbas (and several other regions) has been going on for 8 years, it has made many thousands of civilian deaths. there are several million ukrainian refugees in the Russian Federation escaping the massacres and tyranny of the ukrainian government, and every soldier of the Russian Federation knows that very well, they are not confused at all.
What confuses them a bit is that their dear president Putin tells them that all ukrianians are their cousins and belong to the "Russky Mir", when it is really obvious that the fascist ruthenians from western Ukraine dream of eliminating the "Russky Mir" and recreate the lithuanian-ruthenian-polish empire in its place.
It is a bit confusing also that the RF government that has been sending two messages, mixing the humanitarian defense of the Donbas with the strategic needs of the RF for security, and emphasizing the latter instead of the former.
«If you are a Ukrainian you hear, 'Russia is invading you need to protect your country'. Can anyone actually refute this?»
Every ukrainian soldier knows very well that their government started on 9 May 2014 a war of aggression against the Donbas with the Mariupol Massacre, along with other massacres in Odessa, etc.; every ukrainian soldier knows well that many millions of ukrainian citizens escaped to the Russian Federation to avoid being massacred and oppressed, and that their mission is to finish that job, to invade those areas and massacre and ethnically clean them of "kastaps"/"moskals". for the glory of Greater Ukraine, and ideally also reclaim the long-occupied territories of Rostov and Voronezh. They have indeed absolute clarity of mission.
Posted by: Blissex | Dec 8 2022 20:06 utc | 67
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 8 2022 19:10 utc | 49
Right on brother, right on. If it's shameful then repudiate the Nazism publicly! If not, wear it proudly. The cynicism of these scum... what do they believe in other than their own enrichment and self-aggrandisement?
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 20:06 utc | 68
"I see Fnord73 isn't afraid to admit being a Nazi".
I fought them in the streets. I served in jail against the Iraq war. But Putin is fascist, so fuck them. Is all my friends mood.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 20:11 utc | 69
Posted by: harryash | Dec 8 2022 19:59 utc | 68
Can you write complete sentences? Are you familiar with grammar and spelling? Did you learn how to communicate only via iMessage? People here might take you seriously if you make a little effort to be articulate. D-
And what's wrong with history teachers? Here's a lesson: learn some civility and courtesy.
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 20:12 utc | 70
An observation:
The war is following the Syrian path, as the original formations and equipment are destroyed they are increasingly replaced with smaller units and smaller actions.
Ukraine and Russia are both using older tanks, mismatched units, and platoon level "offensives"
As time goes by power gets fragmented too, local warlords form small areas of control. Its a good bet ukraine has developed lots of small power centers now.
Russia - maybe as well. The Chechnyan guy, patrushev who knows who else.
Individual strikes one vehicle at a time. In some sense Russian strategy is geared to this, the artillery heavy slow grind very much like Aleppo, and idlib for a while now.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 8 2022 20:16 utc | 71
Posted by: Membrum Virile (or pudenda mulierbris?) | Dec 8 2022 19:51 utc | 65
Fnerd is obviously a 13 year old troll with a limited vocabulary. Karlof is a serious contributor who goes out of his way to provide a comprehensive statement of his personal informed point of view. Your self-righteous attempt to referee between the chaff and the wheat serves only to mark you as petty and pedantic.
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 20:18 utc | 72
harryash | Dec 8 2022 19:29 utc | 54
maybe Merkel should have added something in about "the Joos"? to fire up the ovens of your interest?
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Dec 8 2022 20:24 utc | 73
Posted by: JB | Dec 8 2022 19:43 utc | 60
«So Germany wants to be guarantor of security in Europe! Nobody asked me if I want that and I'm a European.»
That's one of the most ridiculous claims that I have read: the only “guarantor of security” or imperial power the USA can tolerate is themselves, and Germany is a vassal state, not an imperial power, even a regional one, and public USA policy is to snuff out any potential regional power. You can disregard Germany's ambition to be the kingpin of an european protection racket as a delusion, even if they were thinking of doing that as an obedient franchisee of the USA. The USA oligarchs do not delegate.
«I don't want Germany to guarantee European security, or anyone else.»
https://www.politico.eu/article/kristian-jensen-brits-angry-at-danes-small-nation-jibe/
"There are two kinds of European nations. There are small nations and there are countries that have not yet realized they are small nations."
«I want security based on genuine adherence to the law, on accountable government, on cooperation with all states based on equality, mutual respect and mutual interests for the wellbeing of the citizens of all countries.»
Soon everybody in the world will bee singing "Kumbaya! Kumbaya!" with you, and the lion will lie down with the lamb to discuss high philosophy. :-)
How much money and how many lives are you willing to pay for that to happen, or do you really think that “security based on [...]” will happen without enormous cost and sacrifice of many lives, or that someone will pay that enormous cost?
«Security based in truth, not a pile of lies that keep growing.»
The athenian ambassadors to Melos spoke truth, they did not bother indeed with a “pile of lies”:
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/History_of_the_Peloponnesian_War/Book_5
“For ourselves, we shall not trouble you with specious pretences -- either of how we have a right to our empire because we overthrew the Mede, or are now attacking you because of wrong that you have done us -- and make a long speech which would not be believed; and in return we hope that you, instead of thinking to influence us by saying that you did not join the Lacedaemonians, although their colonists, or that you have done us no wrong, will aim at what is feasible, holding in view the real sentiments of us both; since you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
Posted by: Blissex | Dec 8 2022 20:28 utc | 75
@karlof1 #70
What did you expect?
EU is a true neo colonial (?Nazi¿) Project
As Josep Borrell said, “Europe is a garden. We have built a garden. Everything works. It is the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity and social cohesion that the humankind has been able to build – the three things together… The rest of the world…is not exactly a garden. Most of the rest of the world is a jungle, and the jungle could invade the garden. The gardeners should take care of it, but they will not protect the garden by building walls.”
And too
"We are living in a perfect storm, and to navigate this storm we have no use for the routes and maps of the past," Borrell told a multilateral parliamentary assembly of 150 members, half of them from the European Parliament and the other half from Latin American regional parliaments on Wednesday afternoon: "Like the discoverers and conquerors, we have to invent a New World. And we have to recalibrate our strategic compass with full historical awareness to understand the magnitude of the changes we are facing".
No comment.
Posted by: La Bastille | Dec 8 2022 20:32 utc | 76
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 20:18 utc | 77
" Your self-righteous attempt to referee between the chaff and the wheat serves only to mark you as petty and pedantic."
I have been called pedantic before, could be something to it. Does not really take anything away from my point, does it?
And I certainly wasn't trying to referee. Just wanted the chaff to put up shut up. I know he is incapable of apologizing. Results are in this page for everybody to see.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 8 2022 20:40 utc | 77
"Fnerd is obviously a 13 year old troll with a limited vocabulary.".
Lol, are you 12 years old?
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 20:45 utc | 78
If you watch Russian TV, yesterday, on one show, they were taking about the Russian Army going all the way to Lisbon
Posted by: Bill Smith | Dec 8 2022 17:53 utc | 29
Who said that? Who are "they?" Anyone of authority? I hear crap like that ALL the time on Western MSM.
Posted by: ED | Dec 8 2022 20:47 utc | 79
Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 20:18 utc | 77
The Penis person does make a point. Losing your shit then going on a spittle flecked rant shouting some crazy gobbledygook about Nazi's is not going to influence anyone.
Obviously there is a problem with the Ultra right wingers in Ukraine. This was widely acknowledged by the West prior to the war, all documented in western media before this started. I firmly believe this is Europe's problem now because that's where the Ukrainian rednecks will end up.
Screaming at the Sun is just going to paint you as a lunatic.
So in conclusion: The Penis was perfectly correct in pointing out some of the lunacy here. I also think he was being reasonable in his approach. I rarely agree with him but such is life.
I also find it ironic that someone who rants about Nazis can also rant about the evil jews. That level of cognitive dissonance is detrimental to ones mental health and I believe the evidence for that can be seen here.
Relax, take a deep breath and chill for 5 minutes when you feel your heart pounding and you are ready to throw your device. Then go for a walk outside, its pretty amazing out there.
Or go fucking nuts. The choice is ours to make.
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 8 2022 20:49 utc | 80
RE: harryash | Dec 8 2022 19:29 utc | 54
In regard to karlofi's post covering Zakharova's update:
"fck..took me half n hr to read that shit karlofi...
by the time i got to the bottem ...i forgot the top"
So stick with headline news on CNN and stop wasting space here with ill-written moronic posts.
karlofi does everyone here a service by posting information that never is allowed in western corporate/fascist media.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 8 2022 20:58 utc | 81
@karlof1 | Dec 8 2022 18:17 utc | 38
Lavrov's recitation of the diplomatic history since 1990 was a masterful effort to prove Russia did all it could to try and avoid the current conflict.Not only this. He draws a finishing line under these efforts. I sense there will be no compromises anymore.
The warmongers are led by the Outlaw US Empire, and Lavrov proved that well beyond doubtThe Outlaw US Empire IS THE warmonger per se. China Daily editorial yesterday: US fans the flames of turmoil and disaster wherever it goes
…one of Putin's priorities is to not allow the Russian people to be devastated yet again…Putin et al will be glad to accommodate NATO destroying itself within the land it tried to make into an Anti-Russia…This seems to be the plan. A good an plausible one. Devastating for the Ukrainian people, though. Poor suckers (but the Nazis). Will there be a RF offensive? I guess 90% No, 10% Yes. However, Ukraine will continue to draw RF towards WW3 to obtain open NATO commitment. An increasingly capsizing West may see NATO’s action the last straw to save the empire. There are people who do not have Putin’s qualms. They may hope that Putin will be scared enough about the devastation of the Russian people. Indeed, Putin should be glad to be able to limit the conflict to Ukrainian soil (pre-SMO). Any next serious act of terrorism or attack on vital Russian military assets may trigger apocalypse. No compromises anymore.
Russia must demonstrate to the RoW its actions occur within the framework of morality…it has many on its side…Many on one’s side is a good thing to have. If the necessary ones support one’s strive, it is an even better thing. China newly expressed its determination. Read Stronger Russia ties outlined by Premier Li Keqiang (China Daily today).
Posted by: OttoE | Dec 8 2022 21:02 utc | 82
I also find it ironic that someone who rants about Nazis can also rant about the evil jews. That level of cognitive dissonance is detrimental to ones mental health and I believe the evidence for that can be seen here.Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 8 2022 20:49 utc | 87
Fitzgerald said: "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function."
Zionists and Nazis have a lot of common traits, most importantly the belief in their racial superiority and divine rights to govern and exploit the Untermenschen.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 8 2022 21:04 utc | 83
Karlof1 is a master troll masquerading as an intellectual. Constantly cutting/pasting anything pro-russian or quoting the same tired old group of 3-4 journos that he worships, Hudson/Blumenthal/Johnstone, etc.
His constant fellating of Putin is clearly born out of frustration that he wasn't born Russian. Meanwhile he plays Russian in public while enjoying his retirement and pension right here on the east coast of the good old USA. It's not hard to see through his bullshit.
Posted by: KARLOF1 is a troll | Dec 8 2022 21:09 utc | 84
Zionists and Nazis have a lot of common traits, most importantly the belief in their racial superiority and divine rights to govern and exploit the Untermenschen.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Dec 8 2022 21:04 utc | 91
I don't think there is any difference.
https://twitter.com/daneasterman/status/1599806572548349953
https://twitter.com/daneasterman/status/1600440579929710594
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 8 2022 21:10 utc | 85
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 8 2022 21:10 utc | 94
Addition
"Hitler's Jewish Soldier: The Untold Story of Nazi Racial Laws and Men of Jewish Descent in the German Military
by Bryan Mark Rigg (Author) "
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 8 2022 21:13 utc | 86
Opport Knocks | Dec 8 2022 21:04 utc | 91
Isn't Irony ironic :)
F.S.Fitzgerald is the perfect example that cognitive dissonance is detrimental to your mental health.
Thanks for that ;)
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 8 2022 21:13 utc | 87
"Lavrov is an extraordinary diplomat, made even more so when measured against the infantile blundering of the entire western corps. NATO/US/UK leadership lacks history, context, Realpolitik, the long view, pragmatism".
Are you joking, again? Do you think Russia does not have logistic problems? NATO is for once functioning in antifascism, its nice.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Dec 8 2022 19:08 utc | 47
Two points about your comment. 1. Who are you referencing in your comment. Please identify just as I did for you.
2. Are you joking? Germany is shifting its pants because 40 or 50 Nazis "attack" the German Parliament. But they love the Nazis who murder, rape, and destroy homes and businesses in the Donbass. Germany and NATO love the Ukrainian Nazis so much that they sent them billions of euros and a large stockpile of heavy weapons to so that the Nazis can Nazi.
Posted by: Ed | Dec 8 2022 21:14 utc | 88
@ Chevrus | Dec 8 2022 19:24 utc | 52
very well said chevrus... thank you...
Posted by: james | Dec 8 2022 21:20 utc | 89
If you are a Russian soldier, you are told, 'you are doing something good' without being told what victory looks like, should I advance or do a tactical retreat?
No, I don't think so. Russia came into Ukraine because the neo-Nazis were killing Russian speakers daily in Donbass. They came to protect them. Now that four oblasts (in addition to Crimea) are officially Russian territory, the immediate (and clear) goal is free occupied Russian territory from neo-nazi occupiers. (Remember, the current regime came into power via an illegal coup and most of Eastern Ukraine never voted for the current thugs or their predecessors.) In the future Russian soldiers will be clearing other oblasts, that will vote to reunite with Russia, from occupying forces. So no lack of clarity on the object or reason why Russia is in Ukraine. They are there to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.
Posted by: rcentros | Dec 8 2022 21:23 utc | 90
Posted by: B9k9 | Dec 8 2022 18:07 utc | 33
Demographic death? Why ? They can just bring in the Ukros ,which will please the Republican Hawks, Employers , Democrat Liberal Interventionists ,KKK White Supremacists etc. Problem is those Ukros will do every average Americans out of a job and being more racist than Americans will set off Race Wars . I am forward to the USA breaking apart like it should have in the 1860s .
Posted by: ? | Dec 8 2022 18:17 utc | 37
I am confused. The USMC ex -general is the leader of Mozart , the enemy of Russian Wagners …not its friend or leader
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 8 2022 20:49 utc | 87
Love your posts but disagree with you on one point. One can be a Jew and a “ Nazi “ ,and I believe we have already proven this point many times in Israel and Ukraine in the modern era.
If we define a Nazi as a violent , supremacist conservative ,well most jewish leaders of Israel, medieval Yemen( read up on the Himyarites) , Ukraine (Many Ukro Jewish oligarchs had private armies that were and still are anti -Jewish.). Let us not forget the Jewish fanatics of Hellenistic ,Roman and Medieval times, to wit , Rioters in Alexandria and Cyprus who Cleopatra had to exterminate, Maccabees in Hellenistic Judea ,Zealots in Roman Judea, Kitos War against Byzantines in 600s. Just read the Bible to see the savagery / race-purity laws and beliefs of the Ancient Hebrews. It continues on with now dead- Rabbi Kahane ,Netanyahu , Begin and public statements about Non-Jews made by the Chief Rabbis of Israel themselves and Neocons of the USA. One must stop suspending disbelief of such behaviour by Jews with power and influence.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 8 2022 21:28 utc | 91
Posted by: OttoE | Dec 8 2022 21:02 utc | 90
Will there be a RF offensive? I guess 90% No, 10% Yes.
McMaster is claiming the RF offensive will start between 12/10 & 12/19.
The weather forecast is well above freezing during that time span on the coast. Kiev will be barely freezing overnight. So I doubt it, although they could up the bombardment, them come in after nothing is left moving & the ground is frozen.
My guess right now leans toward no, simply because everybody expects them to.
Posted by: Mary | Dec 8 2022 21:31 utc | 92
Ukraine sends 360-500 people to Artyomovsk direction daily — LPR People’s Militia
https://tass.com/defense/1547959
So Ukraine can after 9 months war of war still transfer up to 500 people a day directly to Donbas border!
Always 1 step behind.
Posted by: Z_anon | Dec 8 2022 20:29 utc | 82
--------------------------------------------------------
Zanon, I see that you have changed your signature just a bit. We don't hear much from you anymore. I assume you are using other monikers these days.
The 360 to 500 sacrificial lambs that UAF is sending to the front lines are necessary because that is the kill rate in the Artyomovsk direction daily. That is why they call it the meat grinder.
There is a story in RT (and I saw it mentioned above) about a retired US Marine Colonel who is in charge of a mercenary group called the "Mozart Brigade", look it up yourself and read the bad new.
Posted by: Ed | Dec 8 2022 21:32 utc | 93
Re the Ukr Electric Grid
The thought came to me that the RF is targeting specific equipment on the grid. The equipment they destroy can be and is replaced.
The RF always leave enough of the grid functioning to make it worthwhile reparing.
The equipment will be coming from Europe. With this being done on a weekly basis the stocks will be getting very low.
Europes manufacturing capacity is crippled so they can't produce this equipment and are in a difficult position to deal with even routine maintenance.
One person with a DXL-5 hiking through the countryside could cause havoc.
Fiendishly clever if true.
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 8 2022 21:33 utc | 94
"Could you perhaps quote the part where Fnord73 admitted that?"
Membrum Virile | Dec 8 2022 19:51 utc | 65
_____
Assuming Fnord knows that NATO is actively supporting Nazis in Ukraine, then one might infer Fnord's Nazi sympathy from his otherwise nonsensical statement that "NATO is for once functioning in antifascism, its nice." Maybe he's blissfully unaware of who we're shipping those mountains full of weapons to?
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 8 2022 21:35 utc | 95
Brother Ma | Dec 8 2022 21:28 utc | 100
Please I said nothing about Nazi Jews.
I spoke about cognitive dissonance.
Mind you Nazi Jews would have truck loads of cognitive dissonance to deal with...they would be pretty fucked up.
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 8 2022 21:39 utc | 96
Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 8 2022 20:49 utc | 87
«I also find it ironic that someone who rants about Nazis can also rant about the evil jews.»
One of the huge mistakes by the RF propaganda has been to call "nazis" the ruthenian fascists. Most of them are not "nazis", they are just mass murdering fascists, in the Pinochet/Chiang/Kim/Suharto style; Dontsov, Petliura, Bandera massacred poles and jews, but also fought against the invading nazis at some points.
Lots of fascists, in Ukraine, Italy, etc. were jews, and lots of jews were and are fascists, for example plenty of fascist jews (e.g. Netanyahu) in Israel too.
However some stupid ruthenian fascists are cosplaying "nazi" because their granddad fought for the "nazis", and are racists against what they think is a "slav/mongol mongrel race" they call "moskals" or "kastaps" or "orcs". But not all racists are "nazis" either.
Also there are a few real "nazis" in Ukraine, not just cosplayers, even if they are much fewer. As to them, the "nazi" part "NSDAP" was a specifically german party, and their anti-jews actions were specifically for what they believed was the benefit of the german people, not in general, they did not care about the jews elsewhere.
Therefore for non-germans "nazism" does not need to be anti-jews, it can well be anti-"moskal" in Ukraine, in the same way that it was anti-jews for the NSDAP.
Posted by: Blissex | Dec 8 2022 21:41 utc | 97
@JB | Dec 8 2022 19:43 utc | 60
Does anyone have the Merkel interview to Der Spiegel in English to share.
JB, as far as I can see the SPIEGEL-interview with Merkel was not published word-for-word, only summarized. Online issue 48/22 translated with Google:
Angela Merkel now remembers that in addition to The Crown and Babylon Berlin, she spent her free time watching Munich, the Netflix film about Chamberlain's role in the run-up to World War II. Jeremy Irons as Neville Chamberlain. She liked that Churchill's predecessor was shown in a different light. Not as a fearful stirrup holder for Hitler, but as a strategist who gave his country the buffer to prepare for the German attack. Munich 1938 sounds like Bucharest 2008. She believes that she bought the time, then and later in the Minsk negotiations, that Ukraine could use to better resist a Russian attack. It is a stronger, more resilient country now. Back then, she is sure, she would have been overrun by Putin's troops.
Posted by: Udkanten | Dec 8 2022 21:41 utc | 98
"fck..took me half n hr to read that shit karlofi...
by the time i got to the bottem ...i forgot the top"
harryash | Dec 8 2022 19:29 utc | 54
____
Seriously? Time to assign you to the short bus for remedial reading. Either that or switch to club soda. Your own vacuous one-liners are growing sloppy, incoherent, and tedious
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Dec 8 2022 21:46 utc | 99
Patroklos | Dec 8 2022 18:53 utc | 45 "Russia will need to take or reshape all of Ukraine. To leave even a rump Galicia unreformed will allow the cancer to return"
Russia has mostly withdrawn back within what are now its borders.I think that is something to do with its constitution and military. Going by what Putin said the other day it seems likely Galicia and Volyn will go back to Poland. Russia has settled for a long war on a static frontline. It is not the war Nato wanted and Russia will destroy whatever is thrown against that front.
Macron seems to have seen which way the US wind is blowing though the British are fanatical about destroying Russia. How long this will last with the Americans losing interest is hard to tell but I guess until the EU and Nato implode.
On the one side is the ROW - the other 80% of the world setting up a non US world. Everything that is needed for trade and good relations. On the other side is UK and Europe - EU and NATO destroying itself on the Russian frontline in Ukraine. Galicia will be Poland's problem. Full circle. Central Ukraine will be devoid of males.
We look at war as a win lose thing. Putin's Russia is looking at it as an extension of politics.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 8 2022 21:55 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
I got nothing other than the Russian arms dealer is on his way home and that make glad;-)
Posted by: jo6pac | Dec 8 2022 16:12 utc | 1