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December 4, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-217
Comments
@ outrage. Some time back I recal reading a piece designed to swell my taxpaying, patriotic breast with pride…. Yada -something-Yada Bushmaster… aussie aussie aussie oi oi oi…
Knew it was BS… but the Bushmaster is “our” lil aussie battler…
Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicle
thalesprotectedmobility.com.au/tpm
The Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicle or Infantry Mobility Vehicle is an Australian-built four-wheel drive armoured vehicle.
The Bushmaster was primarily designed by the then government-owned Australian Defence Industries, and is currently produced by Thales Australia following their acquisition of ADI.
The Bushmaster is currently in service with the Australian Army, Royal Australian Air Force, Royal Netherlands Army, British Army, Japan Ground Self Defense Force, Indonesian Army, Fiji Infantry Regiment, Jamaica Defence Force, New Zealand Army and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The role of the Bushmaster is to provide protected mobility transport, with infantry dismounting from the vehicle before going into action.
As the Bushmaster is lightly armoured, the term Infantry Mobility Vehicle was initially adopted to distinguish it from a heavier wheeled or tracked armoured personnel carrier, such as the ASLAV and M113 also in Australian service.Wikipedia
If I recall its “unique selling point” that was supposed to make me so proud and chauvinistic was it’s ability/ suitability for the “tuff aussie conditions”.
(Because nowhere else on the planet is hot and dry….) /s
(for those who need the /s)
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 5:43 utc | 201
bevin @138
i pray it is so. oh to see the vicious people at the “top” convicted of war crimes.
Posted by: polarbear4 | Dec 5 2022 5:48 utc | 202
I am not a ‘Good little German’
Why can’t people speak for themselves and leave everyone else out of their ‘thought bubbles’?
Rhetorical question only. The answer (should be) obvious.
Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 5 2022 5:52 utc | 203
In geocentric view Mars appears moving retrograde until ~ Jan.5, (since ~ Nov. 1).
Mars god of war. In olden days the king’s star watcher might advise “don’t go to war,” or “time to retreat.”
Today there is talk of a “pause” in advancing offense.
Same, same. Nothing new under the Sun.
(As a different matter, things to watch that are new under the Sun are shown daily at this link to make us think: SpaceWeatherNews.com )
Posted by: meremark | Dec 5 2022 5:53 utc | 204
Georgians: (translation) (telegram)
The names of rodents grounded near Bakhmut became known.
1. Auto Rurua 2. Romeo Pichhaya 3. Romeo Kvaratskhelia 4. Badri Markelia 5. Merab Aladashvili
It is noted that the rodents died as a result of artillery shelling by Kadyrovtsy. As a result, two rodent pitoshars were also injured.
The carcasses will be packed in Hueva and sent by Novaya Poshta to their homeland.
This telegram has coverage of the Battle for Bakhmut
https://t.me/s/XOXOL_UK
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 5:55 utc | 205
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 4 2022 15:51 utc | 6
All good. Something not mentioned though: it’s was and is a war between Ukrainians.
Especially up until just recently.
For until prior the 300,000 virtually all the hands-on was done by the DPR and LPR soldiers I believe.
It is an internecine strife. Russia is lending a hand.
The narrative should never have been about ‘Ukraine v Russia’ – it should always have been about ‘Ukraine’s civil war’.
I think it would have made and enormous difference to the public understanding and hence their support if it had been presented to them in that way.
But throughout it has been presented, even by those who back the Russian side, as ‘Ukraine v Russia’.
A lot opportunity. A vast lost opportunity.
Not too late though.
The mass of the population remains almost totally ignorant. The Western MSM sees to that.
We ought to seize every opportunity, I think, to inform them that it is a Civil war that Russia took a hand in for the sake of the Russian connected people.
james | Dec 5 2022 5:16 utc | 199
bacon boy is a lang acolyte. an interesting word. “a person assisting a priest in a religious service or procession”
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:04 utc | 207
@Ed 114
This may not longer be accurate.
“The only form of government immune to bribery and regulatory capture is a direct democracy where people with known identities and capabilities speak for themselves, because only in a direct digital democracy would you have to bribe a majority of the people to cheat the system and propaganda be outweighed by perspectives. Digital technology makes creating such a system possible and easy. It is important that the system be auditable and verifiable, so that anyone can detect cheating, and it must be possible to undo the actions of cheaters, in order to earn trust.” (ibid. (2012). “NOTaParty (None Of The above Party)”.
It may be relevant to Ukraine too.
Posted by: Hermit | Dec 5 2022 6:11 utc | 208
Posted by: james | Dec 5 2022 5:16 utc | 199
Thanks james – yes, I’m intending to go to that tomorrow morning first up, brains a bit fuzzy before bedtime, and it’s past that for me. So much to read and good posts here of folk taking the time to correct misapprehensions or answer questions. It needs to be done, so thanks to them for that. History has been marching doubletime even though it seems to be going slower at present.
I’ll add I do like hermit’s suggestion not to use the term ‘mainstream media’ – and the replacement term ‘corporate media’ from Vintage Red. It’s not surprising we get folk coming here who don’t know what we’ve all been examining for so long – if I were still in the workforce, I wonder if I would myself. It’s a breakthrough of sorts, a good sign.
Posted by: juliania | Dec 5 2022 6:21 utc | 209
@Melaleuca 190
Returning Alaska and parts of California to Russia might be more to the point 🙂
Posted by: Hermit | Dec 5 2022 6:23 utc | 210
@ Sean_UA | Dec 5 2022 5:52 utc | 204
More projection, mis-comprehension, mis-representaion, from within your, ‘little bubble’ perhaps ?
Oh, you are a Ludwig Assner, Beppo Römer, Helmut Mylius, Noel Mason-Macfarlane, Paul Josef Stuermer, Helmut Hirsch, Josef Thomas, Hans Oster, Helmuth Groscurth, Maurice Bavaud, Michał Karaszewicz-Tokarzewski, Johann Georg Elser, Erich Kordt, Beppo Römer, Hubert Lanz, Hans Speidel, Hyazinth Graf Strachwitz, Henning von Tresckow, Fabian von Schlabrendorff, Rudolf Christoph Freiherr von Gersdorff, Axel Freiherr von dem Bussche-Streithorst, Ewald-Heinrich von Kleist-Schmenzin, Eberhard von Breitenbuch, Claus von Stauffenberg, or even a Wilhelm Franz Canaris ?
BS, you ‘Good little German‘.
Since you promote your malware & MoA poster block list script, so as you repeatedly assert cannot even see the majority of posters posts, if you intend to address my post, do so by addressing the poster. Junior.
Common courtesy.
Yes indeed, you are a ‘Good Little German‘, just like the rest of us, quite likely a ‘Very Good’ one. Unless you lack mature insight, knowledge of history in context, or are dissembling.
Or perhaps you can regale MoA with your anti-Empire deeds & achievements which would exculpate you. Or do you exist among the RoW ?
Junior, a rhetorical question, doesn’t have an answer. Unless used as statement for, ooh drum-roll, dramatic effect.
Oh do grow up. Or as is your wont, now proceed to …
Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 5:43 utc | 202
The fabled bushmaster. Russia has totally upended western strategy by taking this back to WWI. Imagine a bushmaster going into to battle at the Somme or Messines. Western idiots on assorted colour nigger hunting safari. snow niggers is the colour of the day but that is not going so well.
Reading Kremlin transcripts, Ukraine is a minor issue. Most are dedicated to internal improvements. If the nazi’s get uppity Russia adds a few more to its forces but 85% of Russia’s military power is kept in reserve.
Judo, Sun Tzu, Clausewitz. Our dear leaders are getting played big time.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:26 utc | 212
juliania | Dec 5 2022 6:21 utc | 210
Here in Australia at least, mainstream is the best term. All about me believe the narrative.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:29 utc | 213
juliania | Dec 5 2022 6:21 utc | 210
The destruction we wreak upon the world, which family and friends blindly endorse is not something I can condone.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:36 utc | 214
@ Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 5:43 utc | 202
… Infantry Mobility Vehicle was initially adopted to distinguish it from a heavier wheeled or tracked armoured personnel carrier, such as the ASLAV and M113 also in Australian service.Wikipedia.
If I recall its “unique selling point” that was supposed to make me so proud and chauvinistic was it’s ability/ suitability for the “tuff aussie conditions”.
Another little secret, there is no ‘heavier’ as implied protection, ’cause a NATO standard 7.62x51mm rifle ball round or a .30 Cal MG round will penetrate the armor of the supposed ‘heavier’ vehs from 100m. (Don’t ever let the crews know that though …)
Been Down Under twice, predominantly across the remote North, little opportunity for tourist stuff. Correct me if I’m mistaken but there are not any ‘real’ mountains, nor true Alpine snow conditions, frozen wastes, and the typical lowest temp on the mainland above Australia’s ‘Taiwan’ Island, is ?
Yep, about as sound an idea as sending snowcats to Syria. Again, with no spares or parts.
Empire, such ‘winning’, not.
As per returning Texas to Mexico….
Texas was never Mexican. The Cheyenne beat the stuffing out of Mexico everytime they ventured out of cover or the sea margins.
This despite the fact that Spanish horse Lancers were Europes preeminent cavalry.
Posted by: Philip H Gattey | Dec 5 2022 6:46 utc | 216
“The destruction we wreak upon the world, which family and friends blindly endorse is not something I can condone.”
Too much booze. ‘cannot condone’. Perhaps its just the booze that makes me think the current west is nazi Germany and imperial Japan. Nah. We are what we are are. Anglo exceptionalism is all about me.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:48 utc | 217
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🏴 @Rybar on “Virtual” Battalions on the Side of the AFU⚡️
Vladlen Tatarsky wonders where all the volunteer nationalist battalions formed by natives of the North #Caucasus and #Crimea are fighting. Indeed, is there any confirmation of their actual participation in combat operations in Ukraine at all?
🔻 Which formations are we talking about?
▪️ “Sheikh Mansur” Battalion:
Chechens from this battalion have been fighting in Ukraine for many years and took part in the genocide of the #Donbass population in 2014-2016.
It is they, together with the “Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion”, that constitute the “North Caucasian backbone” actively supported in the Western press to foment separatism in the Russian regions in the Caucasus.
Their activities were noted in the #Kherson direction in November after the withdrawal of Russian troops to the left bank of the #Dnipro river.
At the same time, they did not actually take part in the battles, but played the role of the most common units of the thero-defence already after the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces, taking up positions in the second echelon.
▪️ “Muslim Corps – Caucasus”:
The volunteer corps as part of the “International Legion of Defence of Ukraine” was formed in May this year.
According to an official statement, it was created “at the request of Muslims living in Ukraine for the freedom of the Caucasian peoples from the oppression of the Russian authorities”.
The main contingent consists of natives of the Caucasus, as well as some representatives of Turkic peoples – including Crimean Tatars and Azerbaijanis who took part in the fighting in #Donbass in 2014-2016.
The corps has a Telegram channel that periodically publishes photos from the alleged training of recruits, but their credibility is highly questionable, given that there is still no real evidence of their involvement in the conflict.
▪️ “Crimea” Battalion:
The unit was established in 2014 and mainly consists of Crimean Tatars who fled the peninsula. However, since its formation, there has been no information on the battalion’s actual involvement in combat.
In February this year, Nariman Bilyalov (pseudonym Isa Akayev), the founder of the volunteer battalion, announced the reactivation of the battalion, which also included natives of the North Caucasus region.
Since its re-establishment the media have been reporting on the successes of the nationalist formation with some frequency. At the same time, the members of the “Crimea” Battalion” themselves complain about the low level of support from the Ukrainian authorities.
Apart from various interviews and publications on Telegram, there is also no real confirmation of the participation of the Crimean Tatar unit in battles. Back in April, we explained in detail that radical Islamists are nothing more than a tool of Ukrainian propaganda. Moreover, they are actively used to promote separatist ideas in the Russian Federation.
🩸 Despite the militant statements of the representatives of these battalions, most of them fight virtually. Their main purpose is informational influence on representatives of the Turkic and Caucasian peoples of #Russia.
And the prefix “battalion” does not reflect the real reality. In some cases the number of volunteer formations does not exceed a hundred men.
The “Sheikh Mansur” Battalion seems to be taking part in battles, but in the second echelon. Their main task is to broadcast a pretty picture of the “struggle against Russian power” to the population of the Caucasus.
Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2022 6:53 utc | 218
Outraged | Dec 5 2022 6:42 utc | 216
Aussie stuff is more designed for long range desert operations. Something of interest to note is Oz SAS/British SAS/Russian spetnaz build compared to US beefburgers.
A mate, Italian by descent is into all things motor sports. Went to the nascars in the US and found it boring as fuck. After the first few rounds he spent his time looking at the crowd and wondering about their IQ.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:56 utc | 219
Posted by: Ed | Dec 4 2022 23:44 utc | 128
1) Should we respect the Nazis in Ukraine?
2) Do you consider the Nazis who died in WW2 “patriots,” however “misguided.”
3) Was the Confederate struggle to preserve slavery a righteous effort that is owed some form of respect?
1) The majority of the members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) aren’t Nazis and believe themselves to be patriots, however misguided.
2) Most of the members of the Wehrmacht in WW2 weren’t Nazis – they were simply soldiers doing their duty. About 25% of the high-ranking officers belonged to the Nazi party.
3) Most of the Confederate soldiers had nothing to do with slavery, and were fighting in the “War Between the States” (called the “War of Northern Aggression” by many Southerners even today). About 75% of southern whites owned no slaves. Even today, most southern towns have Civil War memorials in the main square, and these monuments are treated with respect, just as most towns in England have WWI memorials at a place of honor.
Admittedly the main motivation of the elites in the Civil War was to maintain slavery as an institution (it was quite profitable). Similarly, the main motivation of the elites in Ukraine is to make money through corruption (it’s also quite profitable).
My point was that ordinary soldiers are manipulated with propaganda to believe that they’re patriots fighting for their country.
I think that when the war ends, there will be monuments to Ukraine’s dead, and Russia won’t disturb these monuments. Compare this to what the scum in Latvia are doing to WWII monuments to the Soviet Union’s dead.
Latvia’s destruction of Soviet monument
Of course, Germans are completely different from the scum in Latvia, and would never desecrate a Soviet war memorial:
Tiergarten Soviet War Memorial
Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Dec 5 2022 6:58 utc | 220
@ Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:48 utc | 218
Indeed.
Here (Youtube-6m21s is an Irish TD(?) Richard Barrett(?)) ripping Ursula Fond Of Lying & the unaccountable fascist EU to shreds for 6 whole minutes during her recent visit to Ireland & a joint sitting of Parliament.
Oh, and she has to sit there and take it, recorded for posterity.
No doubt this exchange was widely reported in our corporate MSM_of_Lies_&_Censorship, yes, yes ?
Thanks for the kind replies from PeterAU1 and Melaleuca about the suitability of conditions for movements in summer versus winter. I’m afraid this war is only the opening skirmish in a wider theater of operations. I suspect the majority of people in the Ukraine are not doing well under the Zelensky/NATO regime, but I don’t live there so I don’t know.
Posted by: Michael Emmons | Dec 5 2022 7:03 utc | 222
@Michael Emmons 189
Firstly, Russia has short supply lines, local maintainance facilities and unassailable supply chains, all arctic tolerant, making it impossible for the Ukraine to interdict Russian Winter logistics. Ukraine has none of this.
Secondly, Russia has vast numbers of lighter, broader tracked vehicles (perfect for manoeuvering on snow, ice, frozen rivers and mud), including combat and logistical vehicles along with unmatched organizational experience and memory of large scale combat under such conditions, making it impossible for the Ukraine to compete.
Thirdly, ongoing attrition has left the Ukraine with limited numbers of utterly exhausted, very inadequately supplied conscripts herded by limited numbers of unstable bitter-end fanatics, with limited NATO training and no relevant experience, facing fresh, recently retrained and fully supplied Russian forces with easy access to excellent support systems, unlimited weapon systems and materiels and a well planned rotation system to prevent combat fatigue. Ukraine has adopted Western style organization, with too few NCOs doing too much, and an officer corps that lacks the experience and knowledge under combat conditions needed to adapt effectively to local microconditions (which are the details wherein the Devil hides). Russia puts senior offices in the field with their forces, providing invaluable experience and knowledge at small risk to trained personnel (Russian combet losses seem to be well under 5%).
Fourthly, Russia retains air superiority, escalatory dominance and essentially unlimited fuel supplies. Ukraine has none of this. Russia can rain missiles down on anything they can detect in Ukraine, and there is practically nothing that the Ukraine can do to prevent it.
The outcome is that any feint by Russia will mean that Ukrainians will be forced to use wheeled vehicles that have higher ground pressures which will burn fuel they don’t have destroying the surface crust resulting in subsequent movements bogging down all the while exposed to artillery fire. If Ukraine forces are sufficiently stupid or cowed to be slow in revolting to force a surrender before this happens, they will be forced to transfer small forces by foot in an environment where satellite and drone observation, combined with sensors and ELINT will result in a situation where everything they do is visible and under fire in an environment utterly lacking in the essentials to sustain life let alone combat.
Which is why Russia is in no hurry. The longer it takes for the ground and rivers to freeze, the fewer Ukrainian forces there will be left to fight and the lower the risk to Russian personnel. If the Ukraine’s unconscionable attacks on the Russia speaking people of Ukraine and continuous involvement in the worst kinds of war crimes had not earned them retribution, one might almost pity them.
Posted by: Hermit | Dec 5 2022 7:07 utc | 223
Outraged | Dec 5 2022 7:02 utc | 222
The Irish are very outspoken and to be respected but I had to draw the line when he got to the utterly barbaric invasion of Ukraine by Russia. That is something I do not tolerate.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 7:21 utc | 224
Giyane #9
Ukraine is a massive diversion from the climate crisis.
On the contrary, the ‘climate crisis’ was a massive diversion to the PEACE DIVIDEND when the USSR disbanded. Instead of going full tilt for human development in a framework of global security and economic certainty, the globalists drove the war machine forward and attacked any and everyone they hated and that they could get away with.
The climate crisis pales in the face of massive misallocation of resources to the WAR MACHINE of the West.
The delusion, distraction and wasted effort is writ large in the face of the gross consequences from war for climate change and pollution of the biosphere.
The waste, the waste, the waste!
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 5 2022 7:21 utc | 225
Hermit – Thanks to you too. I think I’m getting it. I hope the winter campaign will result in a quick settlement.
Posted by: Michael Emmons | Dec 5 2022 7:22 utc | 226
Speaking of rhetorical questions …
Intel Slava
🇺🇦 Vladimir Zelensky’s goal is not to defend Ukraine, but to sacrifice his people in an attempt to harm Russia,” said Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, a former French presidential candidate.
Khokhols will now understand that they are just ritual pigs for sacrifice? Rhetorical question.
@ Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 6:56 utc | 220
Yeah, we deliberately design for over three decades now, unsustainable over complex gas guzzlers, the Monopoly Fuel corpses love it, along with their shareholders, & the chain of big guys getting their % cut. Over-complex Stealth this Stealth that, which we dare not use in case our already useless & compromised ‘Stealth’ tech may fall into enemy hands. Billion bucks for a stealth bomber that a C-130 could substitute for re actual operable payload & use. M1A2 MBTs with a Dogdamn gas turbine engine, weighing ~73 damned tons ? Brilliant …
Er, Nascar ? No shortage of Americans who would agree with your Italian friend. Mind you, I’d rather watch paint dry than watch you Brits, Aussies, Indians, & ?, go on for days with yer Cricket. 😉
Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 5:29 utc | 201
All summer assaults could be made across open fields. Now it’s roads only… making troop movements carnival tin duck shooting …
It is this stark reality that drives innovation. I know we have seen some remarkable achievement of drone warfare to date, yet I believe we have only witnessed a glimpse.
The victor from this war in this very constrained natural environment will be the master of the air and especially the application of drone swarm blitzkrieg. I trust Russia will demonstrate same over the coming months.
Certainly China demonstrated remarkable drone coordination in its civic ceremonies over the past few years. I imagine they have been busy in developing defensive and aggressive applications in the same vein. Time will tell.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 5 2022 7:33 utc | 228
Outraged #222
Superb link brother.
With any justice, the banshee of Richard Barret will pursue the evil Ursula fond of lying to her disgraced exit from the EU.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 5 2022 7:46 utc | 229
@meremark | Dec 5 2022 5:53 utc | 205
In geocentric view Mars appears moving retrograde until ~ Jan.5, (since ~ Nov. 1).
If the solar system had been geocentric, the apparent movement of Mars would be prograde. It appears retrograde now because the solar system is heliocentric (approximately, that is) and the Earth is catching up on Mars as it is closer to the Sun. Mars therefore appears to have a retrograde movement against the background of fixed stars, while in reality it is moving forward as always.
Today there is talk of a “pause” in advancing offense.
Like the apparent movement of Mars, the pause is not a reflection of reality, but of perspective.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 5 2022 7:47 utc | 230
Iranian ambassador says Iran, Belarus should join forces in SCO to oppose Europe, US
According to Said Yari, “relations between Tehran and Minsk are at the peak of development today”
MINSK, December 5. /TASS/. Tehran supports the accession of Belarus to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Saeed Yari, the ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Belarus, said on Sunday.
…
@ Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 7:21 utc | 225
Ah yes. ‘Tis but the mandatory preliminary slave kowtow utterances that he must state in order to be heard. They all dutifully do it, with few exceptions, even respected stenographers. It is what he dared J’Accuse after the mandatory obeisance that matters, is it not ?
Contrarian_Ed | Dec 5 2022 6:58 utc | 221
“Of course, Germans are completely different from the scum in Latvia, and would never desecrate a Soviet war memorial”
That’s right. Such work is below us. Our cherished Ukrainian guests will do the job just fine (original article with more pictures here). ;/
—
Concerning the whole mud issue, a lot of it is really folklore. Not all of it, but still a lot. Things have changed during the 80 years since Operation Barbarossa. The road network is a different one. They do have real roads nowadays, with concrete or tarmac. Also, most affected by Rasputitsa were wheeled vehicles in general plus German tanks with their unsuitable ground pressure. Too much weight on tracks much too slim. The Red Army knew better. The T-34 already had much better ground pressure, and so do the T-72, T-80, BMP-3 etc. This T-80 here for example seems to be doing just fine. Getting the beast clean again afterwards will however be a nightmare, I guess.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Dec 5 2022 8:00 utc | 232
Cricket would be good after a week of hard physical work. I could lay back on a bean bag and the commentators drone would be like a nanny’s lullaby putting me to sleep.
There are two names for cricket. One is Imran Khan. The other is my metal work teacher. I forget his name but always remember him. He could swing a straight edge. Brought tears to my eyes.
Apart from my metal work teacher the Italians seem to like fast machinery. My mate who I had only known a bit when young asked one day if I would go to the fink with him. He hadn’t done any bike riding in years. Never rode a bike in the time I was working for him. I said righto. When. Two weeks. Pulls out his old race bike and off we go. We went for I think annually for four years. His old race bike was piece of ported sheer horsepower. The sort of thing you put into power slides at 180ks. Most of his early days I only know about from people that knew him well way back then.
When I was fucked he wanted me to to come and work for him. Wanted to know how much per hour. I said it has just got be interesting. For the most part it was. His last ride in the desert he busted some vertebra and ribs. I’m sitting there like a cocky on a dead tree waiting for him.
the crew pissed off to town and I sat there with a jerry can of fuel and a carton of 4xxxx.
Hospital in Alice had a ward reserved for fink casualties and that’s where I found him. I would make him laugh and watch him wince in pain. A late comer but the best mate I have had in life.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 8:13 utc | 233
Re: Rasputitsa (muddy season in Ukraine)
It really is something else. Videos in links.
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1597191522457243648
https://twitter.com/haberseyret/status/1596978538036756480
https://twitter.com/Afroditaa1984/status/1597440553159118853
https://twitter.com/DeKassas/status/1597031391547781120
https://twitter.com/Frostilicus_/status/1597695311228522496
Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2022 8:25 utc | 234
Outraged
Public utterances are what matters in the west. Keeping the brainwashed public brainwashed is the be all and end all.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 8:28 utc | 235
Perhaps a few well chosen 500 million pound yaughts accidentally sinking with high fliers on board partying
Might change the status quo….
I,d be delighted to see a few unfortunate accidents in Monaco/luxembourg/andorra etc.
Might bring realism home to the few that profit obscenely from Ukraine.
I hear that Blackrock is “buying” Ukraine…
That must be internet spoof….but I have to admit it wouldn’t surprise me.
Question…addressed to Peter AU1….I follow Max Igan alittle…..is it as bad down there as he paints
I lived in aussie …worked panawonica…the aussies I met wouldn’t stand all the bs I,m hearing
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 8:47 utc | 236
Hm, rapid sequence of issues in only last few days re EU/NATO getting cold feet re this US Ukraine adventure … or has someone spiked Ursula’s stash or shown her, her Kompromat ?
EU must ‘take action’ against US – Ursula von der Leyen
Joe Biden’s investment plan could threaten the bloc’s industry, the European Commission chief has said
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned on Sunday that to be able to compete with the US’ government-subsidized green industry, the EU must “take action” and step up state aid to its own companies.
…
With diminishing gas, oil, coal & electricity ? IIRC ~45%(15/30) of German businesses have already either voluntarily ceased trading or facing forthcoming bankruptcies …
@ Hermit | Dec 5 2022 7:07 utc | 224
Masterful. Bravo.
@ uncle tungsten | Dec 5 2022 7:46 utc | 231
You are most welcome, friend.
Apparently there’s scuttlebutt he’s no ‘Joan of Arc’, but I’ll take what I can get given his STTP thrashing of Ursula, & ignore the rest.
@ Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 8:13 utc | 235
Thank you. How is your good friend doing these days ? Peace
well four NATO warships have just left port…tugs are lining up on the other three…and theyre going out ona soft low-tide…
interesting….no clue where theyre going..
as i said b4…probably takes about two weeks to establish position..
perhaps the clowns think they actually can fire their missiles
(personally as u know I think the idea is utter bs)
Really theyre just floating coffins.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 9:09 utc | 238
@meremark 5:53utc 205
Eyes open
No fear
Be safe everyone!
@Norwegian 7:47 utc 232
if you have not done so already, you may want to check meremarks link, especially the disaster playlist, but buckle up against depression, if anything mentioned there is remotely true.
@bar
Be warned, it is a deep rabbit hole and not (directly) related to Ukraine.
@ :b Sorry, my intention is not, to distract people from MoA and the ukrainian theatre. Apologies.
Posted by: Aurora | Dec 5 2022 9:34 utc | 239
Outraged | Dec 5 2022 9:03 utc | 239
he is tough as nails and going well. Got a shed full of of every edition of CR’s and races them in the local oldies races. Likes his two strokers. Very good at porting. He was pissed off because there was some blips in his race bike. Put it on the dyno for the first time and it was cranking sixty something plus horses. I’m not up on that sort of thing but it was more horses than Aussies had seen on a dyno.
Even in my latter day besozzeled state he still rings me when the ex spurts don’t make the grade. The idiocy we see follows in western politics through into the engineering world.
Pakistan vids are good. Much can do attitude there.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 9:47 utc | 240
Looks like Russia’s counter intelligence people must be busy as hell.
“Two Russian nuclear bombers ‘are damaged in suspected Ukrainian drone strike on airbase’
Explosion hit Engels-2 airbase near the Russia city of Saratov early Monday
Two long-range bombers used to attack Ukraine’s energy network damaged
Blast also reported at military base in the city of Ryazan which killed three
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility but is thought to be behind dozens of similar attacks on Russia’s western border
”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11502793/Russian-bombers-damaged-suspected-Ukrainian-drone-strike-Engels-2-airbase.html
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 5 2022 9:48 utc | 241
Question…addressed to Peter AU1….I follow Max Igan alittle…..is it as bad down there as he paints
I lived in aussie …worked panawonica…the aussies I met wouldn’t stand all the bs I,m hearing
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 8:47 utc | 236
My family are fully aboard the anglo wagon. I don’t have acquaintances and friends are only those I totally trust which is very few. Aussies are fully aboard the train to Armageddon.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 9:56 utc | 242
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 5 2022 9:48 utc | 241
It doesn’t take much to damage any aircraft. Any drone with a mounted hand grenade can do it and ruin a flight control surface or fuselage, most likely a small short range drone you can transport in a trunk.
While it’s another inconsequential and high profile propaganda victory for MSM, it means that the areas surrounding these installation aren’t as secure as they should.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2022 9:58 utc | 243
Posted by: Philip H Gattey | Dec 5 2022 6:46 utc | 216
say what. Tx was part of mexico from 1821 till 1836. i doubt Spanish horse lancers were fighting Mexico’s battles after Mexico won independence from Spain.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 5 2022 9:58 utc | 244
Peter AU1 (242)
thanks Peter…
well a submarine has just gone out.. (subs are rare)
about three warships still parked…
the ones that just left seem to be messing about in the channel
so it doesnt appear they are sailing off somewhere.
hmmmm
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 10:45 utc | 245
Two questions for Thomas Turk (| 4 december 2022 23:46 UTC | 129)
Are you really sure you´re not a victim for the oil-indsutries thinktanks?
When the scientists in Exxon Mobil in the end of the 70s realized that fossil fuel affected the global warming, Exxon Mobil immediately closed their future research laboratory, and started to support different thinktanks who all denied the teories that their scientist showed.
And question number two, do you know what scientific consensus is?
Posted by: Northern Eve | Dec 5 2022 10:45 utc | 246
@Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 3:31 utc | 176 and @juliania | Dec 5 2022 6:21 utc | 209
Gonna steal your “corporate media”…. the *corporate* (thx) choir drown out all others.
***
You are most welcome—the corporate media choir here in the US are the biggest pipes of the Mighty Wurlitzer.
As the US global economic and military hegemony crumble, I have a feeling this will be the material basis for the crumbling of the corporate media’s throttlehold over popular consciousness here in the US. At long last.
Posted by: Vintage Red | Dec 5 2022 10:45 utc | 247
Northern Eve (246)
I read somewhere just recently that the Dutch police are getting heavy-handed and confiscating tractors from farmers.
more Greta-crap.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 10:49 utc | 248
Posted by: Northern Eve | Dec 5 2022 10:45 utc | 246
Yes the western governments lie about everything…except global warming, they’re telling the truth about that. “Science” meanwhile, is beholden to government (money making) interest, not the other way around.
Posted by: t | Dec 5 2022 10:59 utc | 249
Posted by: t | Dec 5 2022 10:59 utc | 249
sorry b…I know this is off-topic…but just have to ask
t……………are u telling me that u believe this global-warming crap?
Somebody shud hav fckd Greta and put her in the club…perhaps then we,d get some peace.
(probably too ugly)
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 11:06 utc | 250
t at 249
Sorry mate, govs are lying about the cause of global warming.
If you look at the sea level rise at Honolulu, Newlyn, Aberdeen, you will see it’s linear over more than 120 years.
The ‘hockey stick’ temperature plot deviates from a steady rise in 1980, but the sea level rise remains as per the previous 80+ years. Thus temperature is slowly rising, but man is third order in effect. NB I have done the calculations accurately using Steam Tables.
So they are lying about Ukraine, and damn near everything else.
I’ll buy you a pint as a consolation!
Oldengineer
Posted by: Oldengineer | Dec 5 2022 11:12 utc | 251
Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes:
“The problem is that in the first 10 months of the war we used up so much stock, we actually used up 13 years of Stinger MANPADS and 5 years of Javelin ATGMs.
“So the question is how we’re going to replenish our inventory.: Twitter
We haven’t got this figured out just yet’: Pentagon, industry struggle to arm Ukraine
The Russia problem takes center stage at this year’s Reagan National Defense Forum……
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/04/pentagon-industry-struggle-to-arm-ukraine-00072125 Dec 4, 2022.
“High-end conflict consumes a lot of munitions and a lot of weaponry,” Mike McCord, the Pentagon’s top budget official, said in an interview.
“We are also looking at the supply chain limitations.
“We haven’t got this figured out just yet.”
Top Pentagon and industry officials maintain that efforts are finally ramping up to replace the weapons that the United States and its allies have shipped to Ukraine — depleting stockpiles that are deemed crucial to deterring China or other potential adversaries for years to come.
“There’s a lot of urgency,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters. “Congress is sending billions of dollars to the Department of Defense, and we are turning that around and getting that on contract — I would say two to three times faster than we normally do.”
She cited recent deals for tens of thousands of 155mm artillery rounds that the Ukrainians are using up almost as soon as they arrive.
By the spring, “we will be able to do 20,000 rounds a month,” she said.
But it will take time to manufacture enough of them, she said, adding that the U.S. will get that rate up to 40,000 rounds a month in the spring of 2025.
Indeed, reigniting plants that make artillery, rockets, missiles and air defenses that were tailored for peacetime efficiency — rather than war-time production — is proving a massive task.
“We spend a lot of money on some very exquisite large systems and we do not spend as much on the munitions necessary to support those,” Gregory Hayes, the CEO of Raytheon Technologies, said during a panel discussion.
“We have not had a priority on fulfilling the war reserves that we need to fight a long-term battle.”
The Army’s top weapons buyer also cautioned that responding to a “real large-scale war” won’t happen overnight.
“People haven’t seen one in a while,” Doug Bush said in an interview, “so I think we’ve forgotten that with true industrial mobilization, there’s always a time aspect to it and it’s never instantaneous.”
“I think we’re closer to a wartime mode, which has been something I’ve been working on to build,” he added.
The Pentagon is trying to overcome the limitations as officials craft next year’s budget request, McCord said.
For example, he is talking to congressional defense committees about buying munitions for the first time using multiyear contracts — a vehicle DoD uses for aircraft and ship programs to save money and ensure a steady flow of production.
Officials are also considering creating a fund for the Pentagon to buy versions of weapons that can be quickly transferred or sold to partners — Taiwan, for example — if a conflict emerges.
McCord explained that the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have highlighted that “having the ‘just what you need, just in time’ mentality is maybe not the answer.”
So far, lawmakers are skeptical of providing the Pentagon a blank check, McCord added. But he hopes they can work out an agreement. At the forum, lawmakers from both parties were adamant that the funding needs to continue in the next Congress, even as some conservative members balked at the price tag.
Any new pot of money dedicated to munitions production would need to be at least $100 million to be effective, but the amount also has to match the actual industrial base capability, McCord added.
“What is doable in the next 12 months with the industrial base workforce and supply chain as it exists today?” he asked.
He also said the Biden administration’s pending request for $38 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine should help. “The supplemental that we have pending now has some explicit funding in it for industrial base capacity expansion.”
Still, others said that the contracting process is just too slow and not robust enough to get the industry firing at the level it needs to be.
“In order to develop all these munitions we need, we have to get production contracts out there,” said Ellen Lord, a former Pentagon’s weapons chief and CEO of Textron Systems.
She derided what she called “lumpy contracts” in favor of longer term ones to compel companies to make the investments needed to ramp up production.
Lord also said the U.S. needs to make it easier for allied nations to build American weapons by sharing the engineering specs.
“We need to think about our very close allies and partners … and break down the barriers in terms of these technical data packages to allow Australia and Canada and the UK if they want to, to begin to produce,” she told reporters. “We don’t have the goods because we are not manufacturing.”
But it is all going to take a lot more time and significantly more money.
“The thing that gives me most pause if I watch what’s happening right now with depletion of armaments is that the U.S. industrial base couldn’t just spin up and do massive World War II-type production or even for a regional conflict the way people probably presume,” said Dan Jablonsky, the CEO of Maxar, the commercial satellite imagery company that has played a major role in giving the world a view of the Ukraine conflict.
“We can do those things, but we can’t do them at a massive scale like we used to do,” he added in an interview.
“It is not geared that way.”
Lawmakers are also concerned about how much more appetite the American public has given the ever-ballooning price tag.
“I think we all have been so impressed by the Ukrainians and you’ve got to back them as much as possible,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a former DoD and CIA official.
“But I knocked on 80,000 doors and Ukraine came up in my election in Central Michigan. People are like, ‘I really support them and I want them to succeed, but when do we stop giving billions of dollars and is there an endgame?’
“So I think elected officials have to be able to articulate what the plan is here,” she added in an interview.
“And there’s certainly a contingent on both the right and the left who are ready to be done with Ukraine in Congress.”
For veterans of Reagan’s administration who attended the forum, all the talk about having to outlast the Russians was more than a bit surreal.
“Nobody thought this would happen again,” said Dov Zakheim, who served as a senior defense policy official for Reagan and as the top budget official under President George W. Bush.
“We almost brought Russia into NATO**.”
** well, Russia wanted to join… but the US didn’t want this…. Russia was needed as an adversary, because no adversary, no to
Raytheon mega-profits.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 11:18 utc | 253
The attack on Engels is extremely serious, those are the strategic bombers, there aren’t that many of them, and this is one of their main bases, thus it likely has nukes in it.
So one leg of the nuclear triad just got attacked and substantially damaged.
What is the Kremlin doing?
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:21 utc | 254
@201 Melaleuca and @212 Peter AU1
To be fair the Australian Army is a rifleman’s army. Always has been and probably always will be.
And if your army is designed around the good ol’ fashioned rifle then the three words that define it are manoeuvre, manoeuvre and manoeuvre.
That’s what the Bushmaster is designed for, and that’s what it does well.
It was never going to do well in Ukraine no matter what the weather, because the war in Ukraine is not a rifleman’s war.
Ukraine is an artillery war. The Queen of the Battlefield is the howitzer and the cannon.
The Bushmaster is good at what it does. Probably very good at it. But it has no place in Ukraine, and never did.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 11:23 utc | 255
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 11:18 utc | 253
“By the spring, “we will be able to do 20,000 rounds a month,” she said”
do you think they,ll be able to do the maths by then.
obviously these war-gaming computers are still run by Noddy n Big-ears.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 11:30 utc | 256
So two military bases were hit, including strategic bombers? Well done Shoigu! With a bit of effort, in 2023 you can destroy all of them.
Posted by: rk | Dec 5 2022 11:32 utc | 257
Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:21 utc | 254
“…What is the Kremlin doing?”
Zanon will be here in a jiff with his(?) refrain:
“Russia, always one step behind” !!
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 5 2022 11:33 utc | 258
“The Bushmaster is good at what it does. Probably very good at it. But it has no place in Ukraine, and never did.”
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 11:23 utc | 255
aagghhhh..yeah….but they didnt send Crocodile Sundee.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 11:35 utc | 259
@254 Tbx
“So one leg of the nuclear triad just got attacked and substantially damaged.”
Perhaps define what you mean by “substantially damaged”.
The report certainly doesn’t claim that.
Even the most enthusiastic report states that two Tu-95 bombers were “damaged”.
Kudos to the Ukkies if that is true, but damage (and how much damage?) to two planes is not exactly an earth-shattering event.
“What is the Kremlin doing?”
I imagine they are going to blow the bejezzus out of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 11:42 utc | 260
What is the Kremlin doing?
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:21 utc | 254
Once a war is started, Kremlin is as good as the parasite generals in their army. Look at Moskva, the destroyed airfield in Crimea where they kept bombs next to airplanes, the constant destruction of Belgorod and Kursk and Donetsk, Crimea bridge where no one checked cars, military airfield attack near Moscow a few months ago etc.
Told you the retreat from Kherson means terrorism works and now they’ll get a lot of it. Maybe a NPP inside Russia is next.
BTW, an attack on nuclear forces is listed in the options for retaliatory nuclear strikes. Not that anyone expect Russians to do anything, I’m just saying another red line was just trashed
Posted by: rk | Dec 5 2022 11:44 utc | 261
Posted by: Hermit | Dec 5 2022 6:11 utc | 208
If identities are known (in yr direct digital democracy voting) what’s to prevent bribery, threats/reprisals or outright coercion?
Posted by: rk | Dec 5 2022 11:44 utc | 261
So an irrelevant attack that “damaged” a couple of bombers capable of carrying nuclear bombs should be responded to by nuclear Armageddon? You can’t be this stupid.
Posted by: t | Dec 5 2022 11:50 utc | 263
Told you the retreat from Kherson means terrorism works and now they’ll get a lot of it. Maybe a NPP inside Russia is next.
Assuming the attacks on the dam were the reason, they cold have nipped in the bud with an ultimatum for those to stop followed by a few decapitation strikes on key objects and leadership.
They didn’t do it.
BTW, an attack on nuclear forces is listed in the options for retaliatory nuclear strikes. Not that anyone expect Russians to do anything, I’m just saying another red line was just trashed
Posted by: rk | Dec 5 2022 11:44 utc | 261
It absolutely is, this is exactly what I meant when I said this is extremely serious.
Of course they can’t nuke Ukraine, because they see it as theirs, and that would be nuking themselves.
But any other country should be turned to glass after this in the next few hours after the attack.
And Ukraine should be decapitated.
Let’s see, the missile attack started, but I fully expect to see Zelensky giving another address tonight rather than being turned to dust (together with all the other objects that need to be turned to dust)
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:52 utc | 264
https://medium.com/@nayakan88/understanding-the-great-game-in-ukraine-330897142aaa
Pretty good analysis, apart from the renewable energy bit. Alice Friedemann, Tim Watkins, and the “do the math” blog explain why.
Posted by: Benn | Dec 5 2022 11:53 utc | 265
Perhaps define what you mean by “substantially damaged”.
The report certainly doesn’t claim that.
[…]
Even the most enthusiastic report states that two Tu-95 bombers were “damaged”.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 11:42 utc | 260
It is more than that – only 14 or 15 Tu-95s were reported to have taken off. There were 22-23 Tu-95s + Tu-160s on that airfield. I saw rumors about 8 planes being blow up, and the security camera video that was leaked shows a rather large explosion.
There were four Tu-160s there, and I have not heard anything about those taking off.
If the Tu-160s were hit, and that makes sense as those are the most valuable targets, keep in mind that there are only 16 of those in service in total.
And that is the most modern and most heavyweight strategic bomber they have. Or anyone else has – they can carry more bombs than a B-52.
So worst case scenario, they lost four Tu-160s. That’s quarter of the Tu-160 fleet.
That is absolutely grounds for turning whatever country did this into glass.
This is the first time anyone ever in history has attacked a strategic military bases with nuclear weapons in it. I am amazed that so many people still haven’t grasped what just happened.
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:58 utc | 266
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:21 utc | 254
Russia has nearly a hundred strategic bombers – minimally damaging a couple is not that serious. They will probably be repaired in a couple of days.
Clearly Russia does need to put some point air defense around them which can handle drones, however. It’s irritating that Russia seems to continually underestimate Ukraine’s ability to attack inside Russia, no doubt with Western intelligence help.
OTOH, it’s nearly impossible to prevent a drone attack from saboteurs inside the county. According to an article, “Engels and Dyagilevo airbases are located 500 kilometers (300 miles) and 460 kilometers (281 miles) from the Ukrainian border, indicating that the attacks are unlikely to have been launched from the Ukrainian territory.” This would indicate that no matter where the military base or critical facility is, it needs to have its security enhanced. That, of course, is limited by the availability of enough point defense AD, which are not unlimited.
Still, one would expect a critical airbase used to house strategic bombers would qualify.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 5 2022 11:59 utc | 267
Ukrainian terrorists strike Russian long-range aviation airfields
As of this morning, information has emerged about a drone strike on Engels airfield in Saratov Region and a fuel tanker fire at the Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan Region. The first incident reportedly involved two casualties and two damaged Tu-95MS missile carriers, while the second incident has not yet been fully reported.
One could say that the two events on the same day were an accident, but both airfields (this is publicly available information) are home to units of long-range aviation, used to strike at Ukrainian power grid facilities.
While in the case of the Ryazan region it can be assumed that the UAV(unmanned aerial vehicle) was launched from Ukrainian territory, there are doubts about Engels. It is highly probable that the drone operated from Russian territory, which means that enemy DRGs have already reached the banks of the Volga. If the drone flew from Ukraine, then our enemy already possesses technologies with a range of 1000 km, which means that Moscow is under attack.
There is one conclusion: counter-terrorist measures on the territory of the Russian Federation should be strengthened to the maximum, and retaliatory strikes should be multiplied tenfold. As long as the Russian retaliation does not have a large-scale effect, such acts of terrorism will continue.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/23639
Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2022 11:59 utc | 268
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2022 0:04 utc
On why Russia has not conducted cauldron /pincer movements etc
All plausible ,Peter ,and I hope it all works for Russia.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 12:02 utc | 269
Assuming the “attacks” happened at all. And aren’t recycled footage & video, or just outright BS. We’ve seen all too much of that.
However even if the Ukrainians hit anything, that’s no guarantee of any worthwhile damage.
Still irritating for the Russians though and they’ll be obliged to trash Ukr infrastructure to a higher degree…
Posted by: Urban Fox | Dec 5 2022 12:06 utc | 270
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 12:02 utc | 269
Ukraine has scarce artillery to spare and their counter-artillery radars (AN-TPQ 37) have been destroyed in droves. Yesterday another two were destroyed. That enables Russians to bombard and obliterate UAF trenches and lines without fear of too much hinderance. It also somewhat makes any attempts for pincer movements moot, since the differences for firepower are very large.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2022 12:07 utc | 271
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:58 utc | 266
Certainly ,not a good look for Russia. The Tu 160s s are the “cool” feted “White Swans”.
How anybody can get into a place like that and blow up planes is a disgrace. Commanding officers and Russian guards need a public whipping as a start.
Russia knew who killed Dugina and bombed Kertch Bridge in a day so surely someone must know who did this…and be able to punish via a kill squad. If I was in charge of the military I would have a catalogue of special forces from other key countries with pics,their capabilities, last -known whereabouts (constantly updated) etc.
If they can get into a nuclear bomber airfield the enemy is toying with you and wants you to know it. Time for more mysterious explosions in London or maybe one in Ramstein, Camp Bondsteel (US -occupied Serbian Kosovo’, Porton Down UK?
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 12:17 utc | 272
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 11:58 utc | 266
too far inside russia..is it not.
this attack didnt come from ukraine…this is SAS style or similar.
If true…bad sign…
the russians will know who did this very quickly.
and if its external…London can expect a nasty reply.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 12:20 utc | 273
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2022 12:07 utc | 271
Re Differences in Firepower so large that Russians don’t need to make pincer movements.
All plausible, indeed.I just get fed -up that the kinetic part is not over yet, as I agree with you in part. All those Ukros in forts in Donbass should be dead after nine months. Sure, hot lead can’t kill them all , but those thermobarics should kill hundreds at once , by sucking up all the oxygen. There Ukro army should not be alive at all.
To my mind ,Russia has not cleaned up those Donbass “Verdun” forts either by design , or just doesn’t have enough thermobarics or platforms for them . That worries me.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 12:23 utc | 274
do you know what scientific consensus is?
Posted by: Northern Eve | Dec 5 2022 10:45 utc | 246
Yes, it’s a logical fallacy (argumentum ad populam) deployed by mediocre minds that don’t have any real evidence for the conjecture they’re pushing.
Good to see plenty of others on this thread calling out the climate bs for what it is.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Dec 5 2022 12:25 utc | 275
@266 Tbx “only 14 or 15 Tu-95s were reported to have taken off. There were 22-23 Tu-95s + Tu-160s on that airfield”
Not meaning to burst your bubble or anything, but I would think that if you told a USAF technician that he had to take his squadron of 22 heavy bombers and make 14 of them fit to fly a sortie that technician would snap to attention and bark “No Can Do, Sir!!!”
There is never a 100% availability rate on any given day, and 14 out of 22 would be regarded as an excellent result for any air force anywhere in the world.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 12:42 utc | 276
And drone explosions at airbase. Called it they left their fucking planes out for over a week.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 5 2022 12:43 utc | 277
Regarding these latest attacks on RF airbases and the muted or even nonexistent response to previous provocation, I’m wondering if RF is slow-playing the whole thing until the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve runs dry, at which point Joe Brawndo is finished.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M
If this graph is anything to go by, it is the US that is in increasing need of a distraction.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 5 2022 12:43 utc | 278
It has seemed obvious to me for some time now that the Russian command authority (“stavka” or whatever) is in no hurry to end the war, perhaps I should say “reluctant”. Why exactly I don’t claim to know. But at every step, they wait for a Ukrainian provocation before escalating the infrastructure attacks. (The Ukranians seem to think showy terrorist attacks on civilians are brilliant warmaking. It gives the Russians permission to escalate.)
And the Western propaganda-bots are all pining for something conclusive and dramatic. Which is easy to make sense of, they are losing. And then that makes sense of the Russian actions.
Also, by pretending the NotZees are still in the game, the Russians look less like bullies in attacking an obviously inferior opponent, and the West is more than willing to cooperate, so as not to look like fools.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 5 2022 12:44 utc | 279
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 12:23 utc | 274
That’s also in large part due to zelly throwing continuously more conscripts to occupy the forts. So they are “never empty”. Things might seem to go very slow for a while, but when something finally cracks, then things can change and get a lot worse for one side, really fast.. There was a video earlier from somewhere near the Bakhmut region where wave after wave of conscripts were sent to a village and the next ones just buried the previous ones.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2022 12:48 utc | 280
@266 Tbx “This is the first time anyone ever in history has attacked a strategic military bases with nuclear weapons in it.”
And you know that there are nukes on that base…. how?
I don’t doubt that “nuclear capable” bombers are based there: after all, every kilometer closer to the border means that sorties can be flown one more kilometer deeper into Ukraine.
But nukes? Why would the Russians base those 300 miles from the border?
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 12:48 utc | 281
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 5 2022 12:43 utc | 278
excuse me if I appear dumb…cos it aint my sphere.
Are you saying RF is waiting on totally depleted fuel supplies…
so that aircraft cant fly…well at least not for long.
What is the situation with aircraft carriers…regards fuel supply and obviously at sea refuelling.
and then ofcourse the navy itself.
Wheres the info and graphs that display supply against use?
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 12:53 utc | 282
But nukes? Why would the Russians base those 300 miles from the border?
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 12:48 utc | 281
Because it was 2000 miles from it when the base was established?
Take a look here regarding ICBMs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Rocket_Forces#Units
The composition of missiles and warheads of the Strategic Missile Forces previously had to be revealed as part of the START I treaty data exchange. The most recently reported (January 2020) order of battle of the forces is as follows:[35]
27th Guards Rocket Army (HQ: Vladimir)
98th Separate Mixed Aviation Squadron
7th Guards Rocket Division at Vypolzovo with 18 mobile RT-2PM Topol
14th Rocket Division at Yoshkar-Ola with 27 mobile RS-24 Yars
28th Guards Rocket Division at Kozelsk with 15 (January 2020)[36][37] silo-based RS-24
54th Guards Rocket Division at Teykovo with 18 mobile RT-2UTTH Topol-M and 18 (December 2011)[38] mobile RS-24
60th Rocket Division at Tatischevo with 30 silo-based UR-100NUTTH and 60 silo-based RT-2UTTH Topol-M
31st Rocket Army (HQ: Orenburg)
102nd Separate Mixed Aviation Squadron
8th Rocket Division at Pervomaysky, Kirov Oblast
13th Red Banner Rocket Division at Dombarovskiy with 18 silo-based R-36M2 and 6 (December 2021) UR-100NUTTH with Avangard (hypersonic glide vehicle)s (Project 4202).[39][40] The R-36s will be replaced with the new RS-28 Sarmat when operational.[41]
42nd Rocket Division at Nizhniy Tagil with 27 mobile RS-24 Yars
33rd Guards Rocket Army (HQ: Omsk)
105th Separate Mixed Aviation Squadron
29th Guards Rocket Division at Irkutsk with 27 mobile RS-24 Yars
35th Rocket Division at Barnaul with mobile RT-2PM Topol and[42] RS-24 Yars
39th Guards Rocket Division at Novosibirsk with 27 mobile RS-24 Yars
62nd Rocket Division at Uzhur with 28 silo-based R-36M2, which will also replaced with the new RS-28 Sarmat when operational.[41]
Take a look on the map where those places are.
Russia suffered enormously in terms of strategic depth with the collapse of the USSR
P.S. Tatishchevo is just across the river from Engels
Posted by: Tbx | Dec 5 2022 12:55 utc | 283
just hadda look at https://www.vesselfinder.com/
there are about ten NATO warships playing musical chairs
they dont look as if theyre off somewhere.
well…its vinoclock so another bottle.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 13:04 utc | 284
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 5 2022 12:43 utc | 278
It doesn’t sound like a good plan to me. What happened to the “NATO would run out of diesel for transport in 25 days” theory propagated everywhere ? That happened over a month ago . I put it up here and had no takers. So either the NAZIUKros are getting diesel coming in from ships in the Grain Deal or someone’s intelligence was incorrect.
As for Russia going slow, it could be , as there is a lot of evidence of “going slow “, or just plain incompetence or inability /constraints on Russia. Time will tell.
Napoleon said, “he who makes the least mistakes wins”. I say ,he who makes the least mistakes in the things THAT COUNT wins.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2022 12:48 utc | 280
Zelly ,sending more and more conscripts and /mercs also explains it. Yes. So send in Heavy bombers to flatten them like Monte Cassino in Italy in WWII or Tora Bora ,Afghanistan? It appears Russia is unwilling or unable to use bombers . Just artillery for now.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 5 2022 12:48 utc | 281
Three hundred miles is nothing. NATO nuclear bombs are stored Italy , Holland, Belgium ,UK, Turkey etc all 300 miles or more from the Russian border. It is no big deal.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 13:05 utc | 285
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 12:53 utc | 282
Biden is tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep the retail price of gasoline down in the US (plus anything else that depends on the price of oil). US public support / tolerance for The Big Guy’s Ukrainian adventure is dependent on keeping them content.
I’m offering it as being a possible specific goal of RF taking so many hits with only minimal retaliation. If SPR runs too low and drawdown has to stop, US consumers are suddenly exposed to whatever the real oil price is at that time.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 5 2022 13:11 utc | 286
Posted by: abrogard | Dec 5 2022 5:57 utc | 206
Not a civil war but rather a war of sucessession…
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Dec 5 2022 13:14 utc | 287
In response to rk@261,
For drones launched from within Russia itself, which is essentially sabotage, it’s difficult to frame it as an attack that necessitates a nuclear response. That option is there to limit the scope of any conventional operation against Russia and prevent its strategic deterrent from being disabled as part of that. It’s not meant to green-light nuclear retaliation in a tit-for-tat fashion. If one has to catch the perpetrators responsible and conduct investigations, the moment to plunge the world into nuclear armageddon has already gone, if it was ever there in the first place.
Posted by: Skiffer | Dec 5 2022 13:16 utc | 288
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M
If this graph is anything to go by, it is the US that is in increasing need of a distraction.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 5 2022 12:43 utc | 278
U.S. crude oil reserve will be empty by Jan 2024 at that rate of decline.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Dec 5 2022 13:19 utc | 289
– Ukraine outlaws Russian language
– Ukraine outlaws Russian Orthodox religion
= GENOCIDE
Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 5 2022 13:20 utc | 290
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 13:05 utc | 285
No Brother Ma…excuse me but are you not missing the point here.
If serious bombers..(I presume most are nuclear capable…
but i find that irrelevant)… have been seriously attacked deep inside Russia on presumably well-guarded airfields…then it aint Ukranians.
So the dumb NATO/USA clowns in charge have deliberately ratched up tension.
Obviously its an invite to retaliate.
NATO wants to find out if Russia has the capability to put spetnaz/or similar on the ground in Europe to damage real infrastructure.
This was obviously what Noordstream was about.
or……….they are provoking an earlier General Winter attack deliberately.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 13:23 utc | 291
I’m saying it’s bullshit.
Posted by: t | Dec 5 2022 11:15 utc | 252
I’m with you on this one. I recall many Moons ago there was this panic that the Great Lakes were drying up BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING.
Neh, they are NOT.
https://www.mackinac.org/9117
——————————————————————
Regarding attack on Engels. I bet it was one maybe several private cars which brought the “goods” as close as possible to the base. Using the river might be another means of getting close.
Then thanks to the Empire of Chaos the best flight path (close to the ground) to targets was chosen so that possibility of hearing these things was minimal. And then BOOM. The operators dispersed to their hideouts to wait out for quieter time. Engels is about 600 km from Ukrainian border, bit to start the flight from there I would think. So the guilty are in Russia right now.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 5 2022 13:36 utc | 292
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 5 2022 13:11 utc | 286
The SPR does not seem to include the heavy oil needed to make diesel,
jet fuel and heating oil. Those sectors in the US are already in crisis. The heavy oil was coming from Russia! Soon they just might bend down and kiss Maduro’s ass.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 5 2022 13:40 utc | 293
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 5 2022 13:40 utc | 295
It already happened
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuela-signs-contracts-with-chevron-reanimate-expand-oil-output-2022-12-02/
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 5 2022 13:46 utc | 294
So the guilty are in Russia right now.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 5 2022 13:36 utc | 294
yeah……i,d be inclined to look at a Gladio infrastructure financed by externally located russian oligarchs.
The SAS etc are obviously good…but no-way can they be caught inside russia.
This is internal.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 13:51 utc | 295
The details of the deal so far were it is only for 6 months and there was nothing in it for Maduro, money can only be used to pay external debt. No bending over and kissing yet, Chevron even stated it was not enough time to get much done and they could not see it worth investing in.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 5 2022 13:53 utc | 296
It appears Russia is unwilling or unable to use bombers . Just artillery for now.
Artillery is able to fires thousands of tons daily at nil cost. Aircraft maybe 1/100th that much at 100 times the cost.
Posted by: Exile | Dec 5 2022 13:55 utc | 297
were/are those bombers lined up to deliver paratroopers et al?
Maybe the “loading of weapons” is bs.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 14:01 utc | 298
Posted by: harryash | Dec 5 2022 13:23 utc | 293
Not at all, Harry. I obviously did not make it explicit enough. Of course it is a NATO team ; whether composed of some ukros or not ( you would need ukros if board of only to be able to speak Russian during and unforeseen pulling -over on the road by someone. Yes, toying and /or testing how far the Russians will go for revenge as you say.
Posted by: Exile | Dec 5 2022 13:55 utc | 299
What you say about artillery goes to efficiency. I am talking about effectiveness. I mean getting the job done; High -explosive ,thermobaric, shrapnel or what not. I am under the impression bombs from above , or missiles , is more effective even if more costly, and effectiveness or “getting it done “ is what counts.
If artillery really is the answer , and is the optimum weapon in this case, why do you think Russia has not taken these Donbass Forts in Bakhmut etc in over 10 months?
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 5 2022 14:10 utc | 299
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 5 2022 13:53 utc | 298
AFAIK the Venezuelan oil infrastructure is in bad state and requires very large investments. Even if Biden wants to use it, it isn’t a given that Chevron will want to rebuild it from scratch.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2022 14:13 utc | 300