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December 3, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-215
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Comments
Price Cap is $60! Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2 @ neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2 Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 16:25 utc | 3 Just read an article on Europereloaded , claiming Russia would turn Ukraine into a fragmented “toothless” state, yet, for some reason , they will need a buffer zone to protect against Ukrainian missiles ? That’s stupid , that isn’t what “toothless” means. The best outcome would take into account security, economics,politics etc… and not be some halfway measure. Russia should take the oblasts that have great economic potential/resources, it would be very stupid to do all this and get nothing other than just the reasonable, Ukraine not joining NATO (not to mention the more resources Ukrainian oligarchs have the more problems they will create, as well as attract western countries to exploit, like the mines in krivoi rog) the river that cuts Ukraine in 2 would be the best border, giving the 3 northern oblasts to Belarus (which will also be indirectly part of Russia) would be wise, Belarus would have good area for its agriculture, and increase its population, both of which also benefits Russia. The rump state being demilitarized and neutral like Turkmenistan would be the best outcome I can see. Posted by: Phariah | Dec 3 2022 16:26 utc | 4 from the previous open ukraine thread.. i thought it was relevant and i learned something.. Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 16:27 utc | 5 Posted by: Phariah | Dec 3 2022 16:26 utc | 4 Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 16:43 utc | 6 The fckn yanks are still in germany. Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 16:50 utc | 7 I’m waiting to hear if Russia does the price control “dog” trick. Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 3 2022 17:00 utc | 8 Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 16:50 utc | 7 Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 17:04 utc | 9 Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2 Posted by: KitaySupporter | Dec 3 2022 17:20 utc | 10 @ Zet | Dec 3 2022 16:50 utc | 7 I read somewhere today an interesting article where the writer suggested Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 17:30 utc | 12 ZH has a posting up with the title
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 3 2022 17:40 utc | 13 Remember when the US er… I mean the UN, partitioned Palestine, thoughtfully giving 55% of the land to zionist colonists; that’s most of the coast, port and cities? The Palestinians being left with an arid hinterland doomed to be an economic colony existing at the whim of the zionist antisemites? Why doesn’t the RF do something similar to Ukraine? The Ukronazis and the US empire get the scrag end in the west and the RF gets the nice bits in the east? Poetic justice innit. Posted by: Squeeth | Dec 3 2022 17:47 utc | 14 Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 3 2022 17:40 utc | 14 Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 17:50 utc | 15 And Russia doesn’t have the ability to insure the ships it bought, change the “flag” and proceed to ship oil to friendly countries? Russia has already solved the SWIFT problem, why would insurance be such a big deal? Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 17:50 utc | 16 Romans go home Youtube. Runtime: 3m48s Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 17:57 utc | 17 Haha, here’s the “Ami, go home” song at a protest, it’s in German but you’ll get it and there are captions: Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 18:09 utc | 18 About the oil price caps and pseudo embargo. Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 18:10 utc | 19 Oil prce cap will have an impact on Russia regardless if they accept it or not:
https://swentr.site/business/567571-eu-oil-cap-russia-price-spike/ Posted by: +_Zanon | Dec 3 2022 18:13 utc | 20 I wonder what the consequences would be if the Empire arranged for ship seizures like it did with Iranian tankers. Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 18:17 utc | 21 Robin 19 Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 18:29 utc | 22 Russia has hardly any forex debt, for essentials it’s an autarky, it needs finished goods and warm climate agricultural goods and can get everything from China and India plus Brazil, S.America and Africa. For that it needs foreign reserves which it receives in rmb and rupee by selling oil and gas to them. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23 Ah ship seizures, is a possibility. Probably by an American flunky like Poland though. America leads from behind these days lol. Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 18:39 utc | 24 @ LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23 Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 18:49 utc | 25 robin @ 19
Zet @ 21
So that the US navy can take 20 Russians prisoner? I don’t think either side is up for that. I’d guess most tankers carrying RF oil will be Indian or Chinese owned, is the Empire going to attack Indian tankers, really? But you won’t see tensions like that develop. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:57 utc | 26 European Stockholm syndrome. I love it. The Germans have been indoctrinated in self flagellation and self hate for more than three generations. The levels of hypocrisy in the western world are beyond breathtaking. Russia has shattered the Monroe doctrine which the evil empire has been imposing on the whole world at horrific costs to the poor Americans. I’ve lived in Detroit, the people were trashed and the rest of the cities ain’t much better, some worse. Swift, the nuclear option failed and the insurance monopoly control by the city of London and the European parasites will also fail. China controls the banksters; the parasitic Rentier extraction classes control the western world. The middle classes and the poor are better off than their equivalents in the western world especially the US. A much higher percentage of Chinese own their homes than anywhere in the western world where home ownership is falling as BlackRock buy’s them up and, collateralized them and rents them back to the ex owners. Posted by: Robert | Dec 3 2022 19:00 utc | 27 Re Limited Hangout: if so, what’s behind what we’re being allowed to see? Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 3 2022 19:08 utc | 28 So that the US navy can take 20 Russians prisoner? Posted by: Tichy | Dec 3 2022 19:08 utc | 29 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23
My take is that the European public doesn’t realize that energy and foreign policies are very much against their own interest. And as long as this miracle can be maintained, quality of life will be further degraded. Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 19:09 utc | 30 Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 18:39 utc | 24
Possibly. Or simply deny ownership of an unmarked tanker.
In my opinion, any further attack on European energy supply would more likely be the work of the Nordstream saboteurs than that of Russia. Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 19:13 utc | 31 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:57 utc | 26 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 3 2022 19:19 utc | 32 For the rest it’s sanctioned six ways from Sunday with the west so no trade there except in rubles, but it doesn’t need others to buy rubles to finance itself internally (MMT is real). Posted by: JackG | Dec 3 2022 19:29 utc | 33 There isn’t going to be a freeze of the current situation, that is as clear as it gets now: Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 3 2022 19:29 utc | 34 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:57 utc | 26
Exactly. Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 19:31 utc | 35 The “price cap” was a goofy idea and many in Europe and even the US saw how goofy it was. The EU has cobbled together a BS policy and now hope it goes away. You can’t have the ruling elite revealed as laughing stocks, so they had to come up with something after it was announced months ago. Posted by: JackG | Dec 3 2022 19:32 utc | 36 “EU beaten down for another 80 ys…” the EU won’t exist within 5 years, let alone 80. The American economy will collapse, and the US will lose not only its allies , but it’s media hegemony as well , before 2027 ends. “Russian will have been weakened…” are you retarded or dumb ? how ? Russia will acquire a territory bigger than Italy full of natural resources and some of the best soil for agriculture, it will also add close to 20 million people to its population, Russia will now start producing what it needs by itself instead of buying from Europe ( like it did for agriculture after the 2014 sanctions, see how much Russia has grown its share of food exports since then) will start investing in itself (something Russian oligarchs refused to do before, preferring to buy European soccer teams and send their money abroad etc…) Russia economy will start to grow fast starting next (rebuilding former Ukraine as well as import replacement will make its nominal GDP grow like crazy, reaching its 2013 peak at 8 ahead of Italy by the end of 2023, and surpassing Japan in PPP before 2025) Posted by: Phariah | Dec 3 2022 19:59 utc | 37 “MMT is real. Really bad.” Posted by: Figleaf23 | Dec 3 2022 20:00 utc | 38 Classic movie; without comment: Posted by: endthefed | Dec 3 2022 20:08 utc | 39 Dima says that Ukraine managed to stabilize the situation. They even have some gain in the North. Posted by: margo | Dec 3 2022 20:15 utc | 40 Let’s get this straight? Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 3 2022 20:41 utc | 41 I propose to adopt as the principal translation of armchair general into the german language, from here on Posted by: persiflo | Dec 3 2022 20:43 utc | 42 It looks like Eu countries regardless of the sanctions on Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine are hoovering up more Russian LNG than ever, they can’t get enough of the stuff. Only the stupid UK and the Baltic states shun the gas. Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 3 2022 20:43 utc | 43 Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 3 2022 19:08 utc | 28 Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 3 2022 20:46 utc | 44
Which is a major shift in rhetoric, and coming after his chat with Biden in the US. Yes?
Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 3 2022 21:03 utc | 45 A long essay by Indian economist Seshadri Kumar, argues that: Posted by: bevin | Dec 3 2022 21:19 utc | 46 Hitler looked like pure genius until he barbarossa’d himself all the way back into his rat-hole. Posted by: CommiesGOFY | Dec 3 2022 21:22 utc | 47 Regarding EU oil “price cap”. Posted by: unimperator | Dec 3 2022 21:39 utc | 48 @SeanAU | Dec 3 2022 21:03 utc | 45
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 3 2022 21:41 utc | 49 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23 Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 3 2022 21:44 utc | 50
It is strange that anybody in Russia can event think about western “security guarantees”. Only a stupid person or a traitor would make deals with half idiots as Macron. Only a traitor would neglect that so many Russian soldiers and civilians are dying in this total war against the collective West. Posted by: margo | Dec 3 2022 22:02 utc | 51 zel moaning price cap wasnt 30$ per barrel. lol delusional . lets make it zero $ why not. they won’t be gettn any anyway Posted by: hankster | Dec 3 2022 22:04 utc | 52 Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 3 2022 21:44 utc | 50 Posted by: unimperator | Dec 3 2022 22:05 utc | 53 Can it happen that US fleet begins to attack and confiscate these Russian tankers? Posted by: margo | Dec 3 2022 22:11 utc | 54 It is really a terrible error that Russia stopped destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Posted by: Mary | Dec 3 2022 22:35 utc | 55 A comment about the youtube video: Scott Ritter: Ukraine cannot win this war. It’s a ‘fantasy.’
Note it does not occur to Scott Ritter that a place in the continental US might be nuked. I think this is a basic problem with the US mindset. Posted by: Passerby | Dec 3 2022 22:38 utc | 56 @Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 17:50 utc | 16 Posted by: Another James | Dec 3 2022 22:48 utc | 57 Unimperastor (53): Yes, Europe is in a trap … of its own making. For some reason, its leaders never realized it doesn’t make anything the world needs or could make on its own. For centuries, Europe via its colonial armies stole resources from the rest of the world and sold them arms and other manufactured goods. But now those other nations aren’t denying Europe resources and producing their own manufactured goods. Europe, with just 6% of the world’s population, will soon end up a faded, impoverished blip on the geopolitical radar. But that’s OK–the WEF promises Europeans that they’ll be happier for it! Posted by: FHTEX | Dec 3 2022 22:51 utc | 58 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 3 2022 19:19 utc | 32
I seem to recall that the stolen Iranian oil was sold in the US. Is Iran still holding ships or cargo? In other words, are the Iranians and Americans even on the trade off? Has Iran achieved deterrence? Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 22:52 utc | 59 bevin | Dec 3 2022 21:19 utc | 46 Posted by: Mummer | Dec 3 2022 22:58 utc | 60 Basically, insurance is a problem that can be solved with an initial pile of money Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 23:12 utc | 61 Not to go off topic, but MMT is not a new way of money creation, it is an exposé of how money is actually created and how it has been created for the last 120ys of central bank systems and fractional reserve banking. Once that occult secret is publicly revealed (that fractional reserve banking is socialism for the rich, debt for the rest) the debate starts between those trying to get the cat back in the bag and the other side that wants to correct the damage of the lie that has been and is being propagated on western societies, de-democratizing them by co-opting fiscal policy at the most structural level to markets. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:15 utc | 62 I can’t see how the price cap is going to work. First, Russia is already selling oil below $60 to favored customers. Second, let’s say, hypothetically, that the cap can be imposed. Why would anyone want to buy oil at $70+ from other countries when they can buy it for $60 from Russia. Posted by: ian | Dec 3 2022 23:17 utc | 63 That may be the last vestige of the Glass-Seagall Act in the US and similar laws elsewhere. Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2022 23:30 utc | 64 Mummer @ 60
OMG that’s fantastic. That’s called insult to injury, rubbing the emperor’s snarky face in it. It’s gonna get ugly, like no ones ever seen ugly, the emperor is not gonna like it. Run for your lives! Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:34 utc | 65 ian @ 63
In fact it doesn’t punish Russia very much if at all, at the worst it’s a mild annoyance which is strange given the rancor not to mention that NATO is actively killing Russians. It does make the middlemen happy, and that’s the essence of capitalism. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:50 utc | 66 Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2022 23:30 utc Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 23:52 utc | 67 @ margo | Dec 3 2022 22:02 utc | 51 neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2 Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 3 2022 23:58 utc | 69 Switzerland usually imports electricity from France and Germany to keep the lights on over the winter, but this year neither country has any power to spare… Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 3 2022 23:59 utc | 70 LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:34 utc | 65 Posted by: Mummer | Dec 4 2022 0:01 utc | 71 I wonder what the consequences would be if the Empire arranged for ship seizures like it did with Iranian tankers. Posted by: gatobart | Dec 4 2022 0:03 utc | 72 @ Another James | Dec 3 2022 22:48 utc | 57
past commentaries https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=colonel+markus+reisner+ukraine Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 4 2022 0:13 utc | 74 Nasty chart: Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:14 utc | 75 @ james | Dec 4 2022 0:10 utc | 74 Ukraine’s successes on the strategic level Uneducated, Stupid Americans are About to Learn They are Led by Idiots, Liars and Immoral Jerks Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 4 2022 0:24 utc | 78 @ Old canadian Posted by: malenkov | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 79 Passerby | Dec 3 2022 22:38 utc | 56 Posted by: Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 80 “Russia has created a “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent Western sanctions.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 81
I believe the theory goes like this: Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 4 2022 0:29 utc | 82 An enormously detailed study of the impact of sanctions on the international economy. It concludes that Europe is doomed unless it makes peace soon, on Russia’s terms. Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2022 0:32 utc | 83 Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 81 Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:33 utc | 84 Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 3 2022 21:44 utc | 50 Posted by: TonyL | Dec 4 2022 0:35 utc | 85 Posted by: unimperator | Dec 3 2022 22:05 utc | 53 Posted by: gatobart | Dec 4 2022 0:36 utc | 86 Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:33 utc | 85 Posted by: Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:39 utc | 87 Know the logic before you open your mouth. Posted by: Nobody | Dec 4 2022 0:41 utc | 88 Old canadian @ 67
Mostly recently seen in FTX, “exchange” is just the digital era charlatan’s term for “bank”. Best way to rob a bank is to own one. New tech, old con.
It’s a salting the earth policy, we are far from that, first you have to defeat the empire then you can salt the earth, but maybe in hybrid war you can flip things around. I say careful what you wish for, the empire will nuke everyone before it lets itself be paraded in chains like Vercingetorix through the streets of Rome. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 0:42 utc | 89 re: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 23:52 utc | 67 and Outraged | Dec 3 2022 23:52 utc | 68 Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 4 2022 0:49 utc | 90 From various twitter: Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:57 utc | 91 @ LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 0:42 utc | 90 Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:39 utc | 88 Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:59 utc | 93 Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 4 2022 0:49 utc | 91 Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2022 1:04 utc | 94 Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 16:27 utc | 5 Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:59 utc | 94 Posted by: Nexus | Dec 4 2022 1:12 utc | 96 Weapons delivered to Ukraine ‘beginning to filter’ to Africa: Nigeria
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/weapons-delivered-to-ukraine-beginning-to-filter-to-africa: Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 1:14 utc | 97 TonyL @ 86
And very clever, maybe Glazyev’s doing. For that brief instant while in the stock exchange the euros are off the ECB’s ledger and can’t be frozen with a keystroke. The Russians have been very clever macro-wise, who’d have thought a bunch of ex-commies could figure it out so fast? Actually the best capitalists are the ones who’ve read and understand Marx. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 1:18 utc | 98 The EU has already informed Ukraine that once the oil products sanctions/cut off goes into effect that it won’t be able to keep up diesel supplies to Ukraine. Posted by: Lex | Dec 4 2022 1:18 utc | 99 Outraged @ 93
That’s an oddly optimistic point! Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 1:24 utc | 100 |
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