Ukraine Open Thread 2022-215
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on December 3, 2022 at 15:44 UTC | Permalink
next page »Price Cap is $60!
It feels like a grand experiment in economics. Russia is already trading below 60 with India and China though...so I guess it an oil embargo from Russia to the "West". Who breaks first? What do other countries do? How much will China and india charge Europe for resold russian oil & oil products?
Stay tuned. Oh I like this.
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2
@ neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2
so much for freedom and capitalism.... apparently the west needs to set price controls on russian oil, lol.. no price controls on apple cell phones... the west is one big hypocritical creature, led by the most hypocritical - the usa/uk..
Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 16:25 utc | 3
Just read an article on Europereloaded , claiming Russia would turn Ukraine into a fragmented "toothless" state, yet, for some reason , they will need a buffer zone to protect against Ukrainian missiles ? That's stupid , that isn't what "toothless" means. The best outcome would take into account security, economics,politics etc... and not be some halfway measure. Russia should take the oblasts that have great economic potential/resources, it would be very stupid to do all this and get nothing other than just the reasonable, Ukraine not joining NATO (not to mention the more resources Ukrainian oligarchs have the more problems they will create, as well as attract western countries to exploit, like the mines in krivoi rog) the river that cuts Ukraine in 2 would be the best border, giving the 3 northern oblasts to Belarus (which will also be indirectly part of Russia) would be wise, Belarus would have good area for its agriculture, and increase its population, both of which also benefits Russia. The rump state being demilitarized and neutral like Turkmenistan would be the best outcome I can see.
Posted by: Phariah | Dec 3 2022 16:26 utc | 4
from the previous open ukraine thread.. i thought it was relevant and i learned something..
@ Oblomovka daydream | Dec 2 2022 21:10 utc | 126
an important post and link... thank you... it sheds light on the importance of this particular focused area bakhmut and etc... to quote some from the article.. for those interested in the article see @ 126 post and use a translator...
"Donbass has a very painful point, which has been under the control of Ukraine since the summer of 2014. This is the agglomeration Konstantinovka-Druzhkovka-Kramatorsk-Slavyansk-Nikolaevka. If we occupy it, the territory of the DPR will, in fact, be completely liberated from the invaders. In the same place, on the outskirts of Slavyansk, the whole problem of the water supply of Donbass is hidden.
In February, Ukraine blocked the water supply from the Seversky Donets canal and stopped pumping stations. Over the past summer, it became clear that alternative water conduits, wells and wells cannot supply Donbass with water. There is only one way out - the capture of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk. But first we will have to take Artemovsk and the surrounding villages. The enemy will be forced to retreat from the fields and overflying forest plantations to urban areas. Or he will be kicked out. Yesterday, our troops drove the APU out of the village of Kurdyumovka. The village is located on a high-rise, and even the outskirts of Kramatorsk can be seen from it - this is a little more than 30 kilometers in a straight line. And most importantly, now the road from Artemovsk to Chasov Yar, where the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrated, is under our fire control.
The operational encirclement is still far away, but the position of the grouping defending Artemovsk will immediately become more complicated. Moreover, the town of Soledar hangs over Artemovsk from the north, and there are also battles in it. Our Soledar will be occupied, Artemovsk immediately finds itself in a semi-encirclement. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and their Western advisers understand all this very well, therefore, the battles taking place in these places have already been called in Ukraine the “Bakhmut meat grinder”.
Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 4:00 utc | 224
Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 16:27 utc | 5
Posted by: Phariah | Dec 3 2022 16:26 utc | 4
I would like to see total surrender and Russian missiles on the Polish border.
Givem a bit of their own crap.
Later perhaps some autonomy given to the provinces that behave.
The fckn yanks are still in germany.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 16:43 utc | 6
The fckn yanks are still in germany.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 16:43 utc | 6
There are already protests with the theme “Ami go home, it’s time to leave”, mostly from the right. But the left is catching up and a book is coming out “Ami, it’s time to go” (by Lafontaine, the husband of Wagenknecht). Now we just need to get more people on board…
Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 16:50 utc | 7
I'm waiting to hear if Russia does the price control "dog" trick.
A farmer can only sell pigs at the government controlled price. However, there is no price for dogs. A man 'buys' the pig and the dog for a market price. He lets the dog go and it walks back home.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 3 2022 17:00 utc | 8
Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 16:50 utc | 7
we like that Zet....take the jews withem....
Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 17:04 utc | 9
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2
Yup, a grand anti-capitalistic aberration it is. They surely are running around with no idea how to fold their own trap.
G7 and their lapdogs shall pay whatever they can bear.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Dec 3 2022 17:20 utc | 10
I read somewhere today an interesting article where the writer suggested
that whilst Russia has got its forces properly motivated and organized with
General Winter...they should invade Latvia and test the resolve of the NATO bullshit...
Lets see if NATO is going to really live up to its declaration.
If itsa jewish promise....no chance.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 17:30 utc | 12
ZH has a posting up with the title
Russia Quietly Amasses 'Shadow Fleet' Of Tankers To Sidestep Western Restrictions
Quote
In an effort to dull the effect of international restrictions on its oil sales, Russia has discretely assembled a "shadow fleet" of more than 100 tankers, according to shipping brokers and industry analysts who spoke to the Financial Times.
The largely anonymous tanker purchases can be tracked by the big increase in unnamed or new buyers appearing in registries. The vessels are generally 12-15 years old and would be expected to be scrapped in the next few years, said Anoop Singh, head of tanker research at Braemar. -- Financial Times
“We’ve seen quite a number of sales to unnamed buyers in recent months, and a few weeks after the sale many of these tankers pop up in Russia to take their first load of crude,” Craig Kennedy at Harvard's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies told the Times.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 3 2022 17:40 utc | 13
Remember when the US er... I mean the UN, partitioned Palestine, thoughtfully giving 55% of the land to zionist colonists; that's most of the coast, port and cities? The Palestinians being left with an arid hinterland doomed to be an economic colony existing at the whim of the zionist antisemites? Why doesn't the RF do something similar to Ukraine? The Ukronazis and the US empire get the scrag end in the west and the RF gets the nice bits in the east? Poetic justice innit.
Posted by: Squeeth | Dec 3 2022 17:47 utc | 14
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 3 2022 17:40 utc | 14
"a few weeks after the sale many of these tankers pop up in Russia to take their first load of crude"
...how does that work then...shipping route?
via Dardenelles....med...gib straits/suez?
perhaps a few unfortunate sea mines floating off Rotterdam mite help...lol
Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 17:50 utc | 15
And Russia doesn't have the ability to insure the ships it bought, change the "flag" and proceed to ship oil to friendly countries? Russia has already solved the SWIFT problem, why would insurance be such a big deal?
Funny ideas happen when stuck in "there is no alternative" thinking.
All the EU footie stamping will get is less petroleum products being side-routed from Russia.
The EU has been told, Russia is not going waste time bandying words with idiots.
Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 17:50 utc | 16
Romans go home Youtube. Runtime: 3m48s
Posted by: Outraged | Dec 3 2022 17:24 utc | 11
Haha, here’s the “Ami, go home” song at a protest, it’s in German but you’ll get it and there are captions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czUmch_ENek
:-)
Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 17:57 utc | 17
Haha, here’s the “Ami, go home” song at a protest, it’s in German but you’ll get it and there are captions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czUmch_ENek
:-)
Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 17:57 utc | 17
well done Zet/Outrage...
this should be the european christmas song
fck santa.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 18:09 utc | 18
About the oil price caps and pseudo embargo.
I wonder what the consequences would be if the Empire arranged for ship seizures like it did with Iranian tankers.
Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 18:10 utc | 19
Oil prce cap will have an impact on Russia regardless if they accept it or not:
According to the report, European insurers and shipping firms have long had a “vice-like hold” on energy markets. Fully 95% of property and indemnity insurance for all oil tankers has been handled by firms from the UK and the EU. This appeared to be a lever with which the West could control the sale of Russian oil globally.However, if Russian oil fails to make it to the market, then global oil prices may spike, hurting Western consumers, the outlet writes. “Hence America’s Treasury Department has since devised a cunning plan to water it down: to let European firms continue to offer their services, provided the oil involved is bought at a suppressed price set by the West.”
https://swentr.site/business/567571-eu-oil-cap-russia-price-spike/
Posted by: +_Zanon | Dec 3 2022 18:13 utc | 20
I wonder what the consequences would be if the Empire arranged for ship seizures like it did with Iranian tankers.
Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 18:10 utc | 19
Russia putting 20 soldiers on each tanker?
Posted by: Zet | Dec 3 2022 18:17 utc | 21
Robin 19
"Empire arranged for ship seizures"....
the jews and the yanks have been and still are the biggest terrorists on this planet..
what do you think Ukraine was about.
46 bio-labs...trying to create ethnic specific bio-weapons that could be
released via insects/blood banks/chem trails etc
the hunter biden laptop...
human trafficking ona huge scale and probably adrenochrome labs..organ harvesting etc
arms sales ona colossal scale...
the chabad lubavitch/zionist zealot lunatics have their base in Dnipro
shall i go on...about empire terrorism...
so lets play their game...as i said...a few sea-mines off rotterdam might remind them not to hijack tankers.
Posted by: harryash | Dec 3 2022 18:29 utc | 22
Russia has hardly any forex debt, for essentials it's an autarky, it needs finished goods and warm climate agricultural goods and can get everything from China and India plus Brazil, S.America and Africa. For that it needs foreign reserves which it receives in rmb and rupee by selling oil and gas to them.
For the rest it's sanctioned six ways from Sunday with the west so no trade there except in rubles, but it doesn't need others to buy rubles to finance itself internally (MMT is real). Russia letting EU buy oil and gas in rubles is simply a nicety as it doesn't want to help in isolating itself, but at this point...
For now Russia can just cut back the production of oil that it calculates goes to the EU and drive prices up and cut off all shippers honoring the price ceiling. Letting only friendly countries sell their surplus oil with a servicing fee to the EU allows Russia to build a currency surplus with China and Russia, ie extra wealth w/ respect to them. The countries reselling the oil get a surplus in euros at the EU's detriment.
I don't see how Russia can loose in this. What exactly is the EU's thinking? All I can figure is it has nothing to do with punishing Russia but everything to do with driving the EU countries off Russian oil and gas even faster than has been happening. It's a cold turkey plan for the EU, instead of a methadone plan.
Funny, as this is what the USA did to Russia in 1991, cold turkey transition to a western market economy and in turn destroyed Russia, led it into a ten year depression. And the EU is lining up for this treatment? Must be some sort of Stockholm Syndrome with its USA jailer.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23
Ah ship seizures, is a possibility. Probably by an American flunky like Poland though. America leads from behind these days lol.
Odds are Russia folds if they do, maybe something lame like file a lawsuit in a kangaroo court.
Maybe behind the scenes though like lean on Algeria to have ng pumping problems or even maybe something kinetic against the lng imports/export terminals.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 18:39 utc | 24
@ LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23
last paragraph - very well said!
Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 18:49 utc | 25
robin @ 19
I wonder what the consequences would be if the Empire arranged for ship seizures like it did with Iranian tankers.
Zet @ 21
Russia putting 20 soldiers on each tanker?
So that the US navy can take 20 Russians prisoner? I don't think either side is up for that. I'd guess most tankers carrying RF oil will be Indian or Chinese owned, is the Empire going to attack Indian tankers, really? But you won't see tensions like that develop.
From my post above I don't think this has anything to do with punishing Russia and the Empire doesn't want to upset world oil markets anymore than it has given inflation, monetary, and domestic problems it is facing. Same goes for Russia. The fact that oil has been stable at $85/bbl tells you that 'the spice must flow'.
What it is is an other brick in the wall to isolating the EU from Russia with the demented Stockholm Syndrome Atlantics in Brussels fully in accord with. Whatever else happens with the SMO at least the USA will be able to strike that off its punch list - EU beaten down for another 80ys, one down, two and three, Russia and China still to do.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:57 utc | 26
European Stockholm syndrome. I love it. The Germans have been indoctrinated in self flagellation and self hate for more than three generations. The levels of hypocrisy in the western world are beyond breathtaking. Russia has shattered the Monroe doctrine which the evil empire has been imposing on the whole world at horrific costs to the poor Americans. I've lived in Detroit, the people were trashed and the rest of the cities ain't much better, some worse. Swift, the nuclear option failed and the insurance monopoly control by the city of London and the European parasites will also fail. China controls the banksters; the parasitic Rentier extraction classes control the western world. The middle classes and the poor are better off than their equivalents in the western world especially the US. A much higher percentage of Chinese own their homes than anywhere in the western world where home ownership is falling as BlackRock buy's them up and, collateralized them and rents them back to the ex owners.
Posted by: Robert | Dec 3 2022 19:00 utc | 27
Re Limited Hangout: if so, what’s behind what we’re being allowed to see?
I would suspect that extremely inappropriate contents has been allowed space on Twitter as part of intel ops in order to draw out, radicalise and recruit violent militants of various types (jihadis, nazis etc).
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 3 2022 19:08 utc | 28
So that the US navy can take 20 Russians prisoner?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:57 utc | 26
Send the tankers with military escort ships or, for each of Russia's ships being stolen, Russia seizes an American ship and confiscates its cargo.
The first three US ships, the crew gets to live.
Posted by: Tichy | Dec 3 2022 19:08 utc | 29
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23
...
And the EU is lining up for this treatment? Must be some sort of Stockholm Syndrome with its USA jailer.
My take is that the European public doesn't realize that energy and foreign policies are very much against their own interest. And as long as this miracle can be maintained, quality of life will be further degraded.
Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 19:09 utc | 30
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 18:39 utc | 24
Ah ship seizures, is a possibility. Probably by an American flunky like Poland though. America leads from behind these days lol.Odds are Russia folds if they do, maybe something lame like file a lawsuit in a kangaroo court.
Possibly. Or simply deny ownership of an unmarked tanker.
--
Maybe behind the scenes though like lean on Algeria to have ng pumping problems or even maybe something kinetic against the lng imports/export terminals.
In my opinion, any further attack on European energy supply would more likely be the work of the Nordstream saboteurs than that of Russia.
Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 19:13 utc | 31
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:57 utc | 26
Posted by: Tichy | Dec 3 2022 19:08 utc | 29
Take a page from Iran's playbook: "You take our ships, we take yours. Eventually some of your ships are going to come our way ..."
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 3 2022 19:19 utc | 32
For the rest it's sanctioned six ways from Sunday with the west so no trade there except in rubles, but it doesn't need others to buy rubles to finance itself internally (MMT is real).
Russia responded to sanctions by jacking interest rates to 20%, which killed the inflation, contra MMT theory.
The Fed has responded to the MMT fueled inflation in the US by raising rates. Inflation is dropping.
MMT is real. Really bad.
Posted by: JackG | Dec 3 2022 19:29 utc | 33
There isn't going to be a freeze of the current situation, that is as clear as it gets now:
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/23356
'It won't end until we take Kiev' - Rogozin on Ukrainian nationalism
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 3 2022 19:29 utc | 34
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:57 utc | 26
...
What it is is an other brick in the wall to isolating the EU from Russia with the demented Stockholm Syndrome Atlantics in Brussels fully in accord with. Whatever else happens with the SMO at least the USA will be able to strike that off its punch list - EU beaten down for another 80ys, one down, two and three, Russia and China still to do.
Exactly.
But I should point out that whatever else happens with the SMO, Russia will have been weakened. It will also have graciously trashed its own near-abroad. And as you suggest, Europe will be severely diminished.
Russia and China still to do? My guess is that the Empire would like to extend this strategy of arson to just about anywhere on the big landmass which lies between Lisbon and Vladivostok.
Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 19:31 utc | 35
The "price cap" was a goofy idea and many in Europe and even the US saw how goofy it was. The EU has cobbled together a BS policy and now hope it goes away. You can't have the ruling elite revealed as laughing stocks, so they had to come up with something after it was announced months ago.
I think the media will be ordered to let the "price cap" story die and it goes away.
Posted by: JackG | Dec 3 2022 19:32 utc | 36
"EU beaten down for another 80 ys..." the EU won't exist within 5 years, let alone 80. The American economy will collapse, and the US will lose not only its allies , but it's media hegemony as well , before 2027 ends. "Russian will have been weakened..." are you retarded or dumb ? how ? Russia will acquire a territory bigger than Italy full of natural resources and some of the best soil for agriculture, it will also add close to 20 million people to its population, Russia will now start producing what it needs by itself instead of buying from Europe ( like it did for agriculture after the 2014 sanctions, see how much Russia has grown its share of food exports since then) will start investing in itself (something Russian oligarchs refused to do before, preferring to buy European soccer teams and send their money abroad etc...) Russia economy will start to grow fast starting next (rebuilding former Ukraine as well as import replacement will make its nominal GDP grow like crazy, reaching its 2013 peak at 8 ahead of Italy by the end of 2023, and surpassing Japan in PPP before 2025)
Posted by: Phariah | Dec 3 2022 19:59 utc | 37
"MMT is real. Really bad."
Posted by: JackG | Dec 3 2022 19:29 utc | 33
I think you are confused about what MMT is. It is not in use in any western country.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Dec 3 2022 20:00 utc | 38
Classic movie; without comment:
Tony D'Annunzio : Give me a coke.
Danny Noonan : One coke.
[gives Tony a bottle of Coke and 50 cents]
Tony D'Annunzio : Hey wait a minute. That's only 50 cents.
Danny Noonan : Yeah well Lou raised the price of coke he's been losing at the track.
Tony D'Annunzio : Well I ain't paying no 50 cents for no coke.
Danny Noonan : Oh then you ain't getting no coke. Know what I'm talking about?
Posted by: endthefed | Dec 3 2022 20:08 utc | 39
Dima says that Ukraine managed to stabilize the situation. They even have some gain in the North.
It is really a terrible error that Russia stopped destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Posted by: margo | Dec 3 2022 20:15 utc | 40
Let’s get this straight?
Russia wants their oil and gas to be paid for in Roubles not Dollars.
So what if the Malices of WestWonderlands decide they want to only pay 60 dollars or 600 grotes for a barrel?
The Russians will only accept payment in their own Roubles.
And so the dollars or magic beans or whatever will need to be converted to roubles.
And the price in roubles is the price that matters. Regardless of how much the deluded mushroom eaters go round playing the Red Queen.
It’s the mental sickness of the mad dwellers through the looking glass pretending they actually own Russia, Iran, Venezuela , China and Ukraine even and their resources , because they have long laid claim to it, they were promised it by GOD. DAMMIT!! 😜🥴
Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 3 2022 20:41 utc | 41
I propose to adopt as the principal translation of armchair general into the german language, from here on
Lehnstuhl-GröFaZ
You're welcome.
Posted by: persiflo | Dec 3 2022 20:43 utc | 42
It looks like Eu countries regardless of the sanctions on Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine are hoovering up more Russian LNG than ever, they can't get enough of the stuff. Only the stupid UK and the Baltic states shun the gas.
http://johnhelmer.net/hot-air-versus-hot-cash-the-europeans-prefer-russian-lng-to-us-lng/#more-70312
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 3 2022 20:43 utc | 43
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 3 2022 19:08 utc | 28
Wrong thread, apologies.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 3 2022 20:46 utc | 44
French President Emmanuel Macron is sure of two things - that the war in Ukraine must end at the negotiating table and that Russia must receive security guarantees. He stated this in an interview with TF1.That is why, Macron believes, the topic of NATO and its expansion will become one of the topics of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. This should be taken into account when creating a new European security architecture.
At the same time, Macron once again reiterated that Ukraine itself must decide when to start negotiations with Russia and under what conditions. He noted that Europe is not involved in the war and does not accept it, but the future security on the continent depends on it.
Macron also said that he plans to discuss the situation around the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
t.me/intelslava/42235
Which is a major shift in rhetoric, and coming after his chat with Biden in the US. Yes?
related I said yesterday to RSH,
Whatever happens needs to come with a proper agreement by USA with Russia's strategic peace treaty deal offered in Dec 21. along those lines ... doesn't it? So the US has got to give here, or Russia will just keep on fighting and sending in regular air strikes at it's leisure. (barring unexpected surprises)The new start discussions are another thorn in the side to be solved. the US seems to be on another planet on that score too.
Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 3 2022 9:38 utc | 283
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/newsbits-on-ukraine-swamp-trenches-short-training-out-of-ammo.html
Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 3 2022 21:03 utc | 45
A long essay by Indian economist Seshadri Kumar, argues that:
"..The war in Ukraine that started on February 24, 2022, is going to be the most consequential change in the world since the Second World War. It is going to fundamentally change power relationships in the world. The dominance of the Western world will end and be replaced by a multipolar world.
Europe’s prosperity of the past few centuries is likely to end because of short-sighted and poorly-thought-out decisions related to the Ukraine conflict, taken by European leaders with the full support of their people. These have to do primarily with the ill-considered economic sanctions that Europe has unilaterally applied on Russia, that have started to boomerang on Europe, with the high probability of things getting much worse in the coming months.
"The analysis presented here is primarily an economic one, and mainly looks at the effect on the economies of Europe of prolonged sanctions (and, in the present context, “prolonged” could even mean another six months) imposed by the West on Russia.
"I present evidence that makes the case that Western sanctions on Russia have hurt Europe a lot more than they have hurt Russia in the nine months since they were imposed, and in the coming months will continue to severely degrade Europe’s economies, while only marginally affecting Russia’s. The primary reason for this is that Russia is far more self-sufficient than Europe is. The only action that will save Europe is an unconditional revocation of its self-destructive sanctions and a peace agreement in Ukraine on Russia’s terms.
"The only major assumptions I have made in this analysis are that, in the next two to three months,
The war in Ukraine does not end in complete defeat for Russia
Ukraine and Russia do not reach a peace agreement, and
Vladimir Putin is not ousted in a coup in Russia — and hence, the current economic and military policies of both Europe and Russia will continue for the foreseeable future.
"Although Russia looks unlikely to be affected very significantly by Western sanctions, and is in a strong position on the battlefield, because of its high inherent economic and military strength (recent reported gains by Ukraine notwithstanding), I argue that in the unlikely case event that Russia were to appear likely to lose the war on the battlefield or on the economic front, China will do whatever it takes to prevent such outcomes, to secure its own future..."
http://steelcityscribblings.uk/wp/2022/12/02/europe-cannot-win-its-economic-war-on-russia/
Excuse me, while I read it.
Posted by: bevin | Dec 3 2022 21:19 utc | 46
Hitler looked like pure genius until he barbarossa'd himself all the way back into his rat-hole.
Posted by: CommiesGOFY | Dec 3 2022 21:22 utc | 47
Regarding EU oil "price cap".
If you live in Europe, don't wonder when you watch the global oil price not moving, but the fuel price going up significantly. EU wants (you) to pay a premium. They will pay a premium due to the following cycle:
-EU will be limited to buying oil from other suppliers´(that is, Middle East, whatever export US has)
-the price of this, Saudi/US oil will rise
-non-G7 will buy the Russian oil at cheaper than EU can buy its oil
-EU competitive advantage declines further, fuel bills in EU rise more compared to the global market price.
EU-ropean economic decline continues and worsens - eventually backdoor deals will be signed to buy oil from India and China - the oil market once again equalizes itself.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 3 2022 21:39 utc | 48
@SeanAU | Dec 3 2022 21:03 utc | 45
French President Emmanuel Macron is sure of two things - that the war in Ukraine must end at the negotiating table and that Russia must receive security guarantees. He stated this in an interview with TF1.
Macron assumed the presidency of the EU on January 1, 2022, a pivotal time as it turned out. He gave a speech to the European Parliament - Strasbourg, 19 January 2022. He didn't mention security guarantees for Russia then when he KNEW that it was a Russian priority. Instead he spoke of the free choice for States to take part in the organizations, alliances and security arrangements they wish . . ..excerpt. . .
. . .What we need to build is a European order founded on principles and rules to which we have committed, and which we established not against or without Russia, but with Russia, 30 years ago now. And I want to reaffirm that order here: rejection of the use of force, of threats and of coercion;the free choice for States to take part in the organizations, alliances and security arrangements they wish; the inviolability of borders, the territorial integrity of States, and the rejection of spheres of influence. I am talking about principles that we, Europeans, and Russia, signed 30 years ago. It is up to us, as Europeans, to defend these principles and rights that are inherent to the sovereignty of States. . . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 3 2022 21:41 utc | 49
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 18:30 utc | 23
For the rest it's sanctioned six ways from Sunday with the west so no trade there except in rubles, but it doesn't need others to buy rubles to finance itself internally (MMT is real). Russia letting EU buy oil and gas in rubles is simply a nicety as it doesn't want to help in isolating itself, but at this point...
Not a fan of MMT myself. Seems to be a clunky way of money issuance when the same job can be done better by the usual means.
But that's entirely a side issue. You identify the central problem when it comes to Russia selling to the West, particularly to Europe. Never mind the sanctions on commodities the Russians used to sell to us. Even were those lifted, because of sanctions on the sale of Western goods to Russia, the West has increasing little to sell back in exchange.
If Europe pays Russia in Euros then the sanctions mean there's not such a lot Russia can buy with those Euros.
Insisting Europe pays in Roubles, as has been done, does not solve that problem. The Euros are exchanged for Roubles for onward payment to Gazprom, for example, but that means that someone in Russia is still left holding the Euros that have been exchanged.
What can they do with those Euros? Difficult to spend them by buying goods from Europe. Sanctions see to that. Difficult to spend them by buying goods from non-European or non-Western countries - those transactions are increasingly bilateral deals that don't need Western currency, or maybe straight barter deals.
So where do those Euros get spent?
If they're not spent and can't be spent then at some stage the deal stops. No point sending valuable commodities to Europe and getting in exchange Euros that can't be spent.
This is the difficulty you identify. It's bothered me ever since the Gazprombank arrangement was put in place. If Europe, or the West generally, can't sell goods or services to Russia then there's no point Russia selling oil or other commodities to us.
I think that is your conclusion also.
The Russians are currently busy rejigging supply chains. They have already gone some way with import substitution and will go further. They will never be buying as much from Europe as they were. They will therefore never sell as much to us as they did.
With most commodities, particularly oil, that may not matter too much in the long term. Eventually, even if sanctions stay in place, some way round them is found albeit at the cost of a mark-up because the purchase may be indirect. But piped gas is not a fungible commodity so it does matter there.
This means that, as Borrell has pointed out, the German economy will be robbed of one of its mainstays. Cheap piped gas.
Since, as Borrell has also pointed out, Germany will not have the access to the global market that it had, that will mean, again as Borrell stated, that the two pillars upon which the German economy rested will no longer be there. The German economy is of course central to the European economy.
The sanctions against Russia, trade and financial, were supposed to collapse the Russian economy. As both the EU and Biden stated at the time that was their purpose. But they will collapse or at least severely damage us. "The Sanctions from Hell" was the proud title they were given when they were imposed. Did the fools not realise that they'd turn out to be just that for us?
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 3 2022 21:44 utc | 50
French President Emmanuel Macron is sure of two things - that the war in Ukraine must end at the negotiating table and that Russia must receive security guarantees. He stated this in an interview with TF1.
It is strange that anybody in Russia can event think about western "security guarantees". Only a stupid person or a traitor would make deals with half idiots as Macron. Only a traitor would neglect that so many Russian soldiers and civilians are dying in this total war against the collective West.
Posted by: margo | Dec 3 2022 22:02 utc | 51
zel moaning price cap wasnt 30$ per barrel. lol delusional . lets make it zero $ why not. they won't be gettn any anyway
Posted by: hankster | Dec 3 2022 22:04 utc | 52
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 3 2022 21:44 utc | 50
The big question is what will India, or China, accept as payment from EU.
When you look at the fundamentals, European de-industrialization means not only that EU has, even without considering sanctions, little useful stuff to sell Russia, but also less to sell to China and India. Since Russian energy powered European industry, which is dwindling away. Naturally, this causes European exports to China and India to decline in as well. The incentive for them to accept euros decline.
Then Europe is in a trap - they have less physical goods to sell, and there is less incentive to accept their currency. That also extends to include the Middle Eastern countries. European industry has partly gone bankrupt, and in part moved outside the EU. So non-EU blocs are making the stuff that Europe used to make. If they manufacture it themselves, again, they don't need euros anymore.
The only one who will continue accepting euros will be the US, due to the master-slave partnership. In fact, it's more likely that Europe will absorb the US currency as its own currency, eventually. This could even be one of the US goals.
Ultimately the use and acceptance of a currency results from the stuff you have to have a large enough incentive for the other party to accept, and EU-rope will learn it in a very painful way. Goldilock economy days are long gone, there's no reason why the economy wouldn't function in a similar way than a random country in South America or even Africa.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 3 2022 22:05 utc | 53
Can it happen that US fleet begins to attack and confiscate these Russian tankers?
Posted by: margo | Dec 3 2022 22:11 utc | 54
It is really a terrible error that Russia stopped destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Posted by: margo | Dec 3 2022 20:15 utc | 40
Intel Slava Z
0:22
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Explosions and a powerful fire in Kherson, the sky over the city is red from the glow
There was no electricity in the city, apparently the power plant is on fire.
Posted by: Mary | Dec 3 2022 22:35 utc | 55
A comment about the youtube video: Scott Ritter: Ukraine cannot win this war. It's a 'fantasy.'
In this interview, Scott Ritter argues nuclear weapons will not come into play in the Ucraine conflict. But, in the hypothetical case they do, nuclear weapons will not be used in Ukraine.
At minute 24:30, Scott Ritter says:
They [Russia] won't use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. If it comes down to time to use nuclear weapons they're not going to nuke Kiev. They're going to nuke London, they're going to nuke Paris, they're going to nuke Berlin.
They're not going to nuke Kiev. So the West totally misconstrued this, totally misunderstood this.
Note it does not occur to Scott Ritter that a place in the continental US might be nuked. I think this is a basic problem with the US mindset.
It's not Kiev, London, Paris or Berlin that's in the driving seat in this conflict. It's Washington.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 3 2022 22:38 utc | 56
@Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 17:50 utc | 16
Re: Insurance on Russian ships
The modern West seems to conflate financial products, like insurance, with complex industrial (or otherwise tangible) products.
Given a green field, if you try to build a factory to produce modern, high performance, super cruising, afterburning, and thrust vectored fighter jet engines you are you are going to require a lot of things beyond money... It's a sufficiently complex, costly, and long term undertaking that it's laughable for most countries or corporations to even consider it if you aren't already producing high performance jet engines.
Compare that to an insurance product. Especially on something like bulk cargo. Given a green field, you need some initial capital, some lawyers, and some responsive point of contact for potential customers. Given cost of labour differences you'd certainly think Russia could insure ships for cheaper than the city of London or New York. If it was a state run, or otherwise state financed, insurance company Russia could also cap the profits to something modest.
Basically, insurance is a problem that can be solved with an initial pile of money (which Russia has plenty of) and some qualified lawyers, assuming it doesn't devolve into a corrupt feast for connected people. Given the situation you'd expect people with particularly sticky fingers to be kept away from the venture.
Then the West ends up with a new, probably cheaper, competitor for that sort of insurance product. A competitor that would also be less of a PITA to deal with than the West.
Posted by: Another James | Dec 3 2022 22:48 utc | 57
Unimperastor (53): Yes, Europe is in a trap ... of its own making. For some reason, its leaders never realized it doesn't make anything the world needs or could make on its own. For centuries, Europe via its colonial armies stole resources from the rest of the world and sold them arms and other manufactured goods. But now those other nations aren't denying Europe resources and producing their own manufactured goods. Europe, with just 6% of the world's population, will soon end up a faded, impoverished blip on the geopolitical radar. But that's OK--the WEF promises Europeans that they'll be happier for it!
Posted by: FHTEX | Dec 3 2022 22:51 utc | 58
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 3 2022 19:19 utc | 32
Take a page from Iran's playbook: "You take our ships, we take yours. Eventually some of your ships are going to come our way ..."
I seem to recall that the stolen Iranian oil was sold in the US. Is Iran still holding ships or cargo? In other words, are the Iranians and Americans even on the trade off? Has Iran achieved deterrence?
Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 22:52 utc | 59
bevin | Dec 3 2022 21:19 utc | 46
I just saw an interesting article whereby the newly emerging 'BRICS Currency'***, when implemented, will have an 'Expiration Date' on US Dollars. ... Another words, nations and companies desiring to do business with the BRICS + 12 will have a 'use or lose' policy to dump the USD. After that date, their USD accounts will evaporate to zero.
I suspect that this BRICS Currency program will take some time to mature (perhaps 5 to 10 years?), but when that 'Expiration Date' is set, that date will mark the official collapse of the West. ... The World is eagerly watching and waiting for that tine.
*** The proposed BRICS Currency will be a stable precious metals and commodity based denomination.
Posted by: Mummer | Dec 3 2022 22:58 utc | 60
Basically, insurance is a problem that can be solved with an initial pile of money
Posted by: Another James | Dec 3 2022 22:48 utc
Exactly. There may be a bit of a bureaucratic rub getting Russian flagged/insured tankers through the US/ZATO controlled canals (Panama, maybe Suez), but otherwise any country with the gonads to buy Russian petro-products will not care about splitting hairs over what pile of money backs the insurance.
Insurance is essentially no different than the fractional banking/fiat ponzi. Premiums are paid by customers, claimants are paid out of the pile of money that creates. Used to be insurance companies gambled (sorry, invested) premiums to keep profits up and premiums "competitive".
That may be the last vestige of the Glass-Seagall Act in the US and similar laws elsewhere.
Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 23:12 utc | 61
Not to go off topic, but MMT is not a new way of money creation, it is an exposé of how money is actually created and how it has been created for the last 120ys of central bank systems and fractional reserve banking. Once that occult secret is publicly revealed (that fractional reserve banking is socialism for the rich, debt for the rest) the debate starts between those trying to get the cat back in the bag and the other side that wants to correct the damage of the lie that has been and is being propagated on western societies, de-democratizing them by co-opting fiscal policy at the most structural level to markets.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:15 utc | 62
I can't see how the price cap is going to work. First, Russia is already selling oil below $60 to favored customers. Second, let's say, hypothetically, that the cap can be imposed. Why would anyone want to buy oil at $70+ from other countries when they can buy it for $60 from Russia.
Posted by: ian | Dec 3 2022 23:17 utc | 63
That may be the last vestige of the Glass-Seagall Act in the US and similar laws elsewhere.
Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 23:12 utc | 61
FDIC insurance premiums are paid by depository banks and credit unions. And don't assume all banks passes the cost to demand deposit account holders in the form of fees. Or that brokerage accounts are FDIC-insured.
That said, FTX Int'l. pyramid of 133 subsidiary brokers--including Alameda--got some fast talking to do. OCC and FDIC have receipts.
Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2022 23:30 utc | 64
Mummer @ 60
I just saw an interesting article whereby the newly emerging 'BRICS Currency'***, when implemented, will have an 'Expiration Date' on US Dollars. ... Another words, nations and companies desiring to do business with the BRICS + 12 will have a 'use or lose' policy to dump the USD. After that date, their USD accounts will evaporate to zero.
OMG that's fantastic. That's called insult to injury, rubbing the emperor's snarky face in it. It's gonna get ugly, like no ones ever seen ugly, the emperor is not gonna like it. Run for your lives!
I think best avoid that at least till I leave this mortal coil, after that all hell can rain down, and it will.
But yes, this would be a way to keep a weakened empire from rising up again.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:34 utc | 65
ian @ 63
I can't see how the price cap is going to work. First, Russia is already selling oil below $60 to favored customers. Second, let's say, hypothetically, that the cap can be imposed. Why would anyone want to buy oil at $70+ from other countries when they can buy it for $60 from Russia.
In fact it doesn't punish Russia very much if at all, at the worst it's a mild annoyance which is strange given the rancor not to mention that NATO is actively killing Russians. It does make the middlemen happy, and that's the essence of capitalism.
It makes most sense if you see it as a further restriction on Europe rather than on Russia. Of course the people making these decisions have been stacking one failed policy on top of an other for the last 40ys of the neoliberal clusterfuck so who knows, maybe it's exactly what it seems, another idiocy from the idiots.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:50 utc | 66
Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2022 23:30 utc
Deposit insurance was first brought in under G-S, but that was more a protection against imminently bankrupt banks. Now it appers to cover for an entire banking sector not carrying sufficient reserves and relying on the gov't to pay customers when the bank fails.
The primary reason for Glass-Steagal was to separate consumer/business banking (deposit-based) from "investment" banking, where the customers shared the gains from gambling in stock and other markets.
The banks/investment houses were gambling with Jon Q Public's deposits money, which is fine until the margin calls start.
Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 23:52 utc | 67
@ margo | Dec 3 2022 22:02 utc | 51
Exactly so, only the 'Golden Billion' in their walled 'Garden' would give this dross any credence.
Know them by their deeds ...
neofeudalfuture | Dec 3 2022 16:21 utc | 2
“……guess it an oil embargo from Russia to the "West". Who breaks first?
Well. There’s this:
“Russia bought 109 oil tankers.
Russia has bought more than a hundred tankers to sell oil and deliver to India, China and Turkey amid Western sanctions, - Financial Times
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 3 2022 23:58 utc | 69
Switzerland usually imports electricity from France and Germany to keep the lights on over the winter, but this year neither country has any power to spare…
It is now every man for himself
https://twitter.com/Galactic_Trader/status/1598527621683363842
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 3 2022 23:59 utc | 70
LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2022 23:34 utc | 65
'Expiring Money’ Will Define the Last Days of the US Dollar:
https://www.encouragingangels.org/new-blog/2022/12/2/qvytveukda1inyangmj7xyfp522366
Posted by: Mummer | Dec 4 2022 0:01 utc | 71
I wonder what the consequences would be if the Empire arranged for ship seizures like it did with Iranian tankers.
Posted by: robin | Dec 3 2022 18:10 utc | 19
And I wonder about Mr. Zircon coming over to have a little talk with those doing the seizures. After all, they say he can be very speedy where he wants or must be.
Posted by: gatobart | Dec 4 2022 0:03 utc | 72
@ Another James | Dec 3 2022 22:48 utc | 57
Did not Ireland go down this path re UK Brexit in the Insurance & Financial sectors ?
@ Mummer | Dec 3 2022 22:58 utc | 60
After that date, their USD accounts will evaporate to zero.
Wow. It is indeed the RoW against the 'Golden Billion', for the prize of the big blue marble, Terra.
An excellent maneuver. Yet an another accelerant re de-dollarization, exchange 'em (quickly) or be amongst the last left holding worthless script ...
Brilliant.
Ukraine can win individual battles but is losing the war , says Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian General Staff Academy:"We are following the Russian initiative," says the Austrian military officer, "which Russia owns on a strategic level." The West is trying to keep up with its moves in terms of "strategic exhaustion" month after month.
Ukraine's successes on the strategic level are being completely destroyed by Russia. "For example, Ukraine has entered Kherson but sits there in the dark because the entire infrastructure there has been destroyed."
#news Slavyangrad
past commentaries https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=colonel+markus+reisner+ukraine
Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 4 2022 0:13 utc | 74
Nasty chart:
“CHART OF THE DAY: Electricity prices in the Nordic region have jumped to sky high levels so far this week, overshadowing the tightness in Germany, France and the UK. On a weekly average, Nordpool day-head is just under €350 per MWh, its second highest weekly ever | #EnergyCrisis”
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1598321392038068230
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:14 utc | 75
@ james | Dec 4 2022 0:10 utc | 74
What's the deal ? Yer unusually snickety lately, with pep in yer step ? lol ;)
Ukraine's successes on the strategic level
Reisner has been endlessly regurgitating the EU/Austrian version of ISW/ASPI dog vomit since day dot.
Cannot be serious.
Oh gag me with a spoon, puhlease.
Uneducated, Stupid Americans are About to Learn They are Led by Idiots, Liars and Immoral Jerks
There have been nothing but lies in the U.S. about the Russian SMO. People generally believe everything they hear on NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, and MSNBC. While Fox News has higher ratings, the audience is relatively small compared to our total population, e.g., perhaps 5 million people, and there is actually only one person on Fox, Tucker Carlson, who says anything negative about Ukraine. However, not even Tucker has ever given a complete explanation of how Ukraine violated the Minsk accords and killed about 14,000 Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas from 2014-2022. To Tucker's credit, he does say that Ukraine is not a democracy and he implies that U.S. support for continuing the war is stupid. In these respects, Tucker is 100% correct.
The standard story in the mainstream media as well as a majority of Fox hosts is that Russia launched a completely unprovoked war, and is likely to go beyond Ukraine to attack other European countries in an effort to rebuild the U.S.S.R.
When a former defense expert told a Fox News host today (Arthel Neville) that the war should stop because Ukraine cannot win, that the best thing to do would be to negotiate a settlement, Arthel looked dismayed, as though some moron was saying the sun rotated around the earth.
In the few instances where the topic of the war has come up in a discussion with someone I know or just met, people are totally shocked when I tell them that Ukraine is not winning, that in fact they will lose the war and moreover, they provoked the war and the country is run by Nazis. Nobody appears capable of digesting this view since all they hear on television is that Ukraine is a great democracy and is winning the war against Russia and we have to stick with them for as long as it takes.
Our idiots, liars, and immoral jerks who run the country will have to hire a consultant to come up with some kind of fairy tale to explain the upcoming Russian victory.
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 4 2022 0:24 utc | 78
@ Old canadian
Deposit insurance is so passé. Thanks to Dodd-Frank, depositors are just unsecured creditors, and if the bank fails, deposits can be confiscated, i.e. replaced with shares of bank stock. Ask the Cypriots how that worked out.
Posted by: malenkov | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 79
Passerby | Dec 3 2022 22:38 utc | 56
Ritter has a better perspective on this than you.
A nuclear attack on American soil would result in an American nuclear attack on Russian soil. This is 100% certain.
A nuclear attack on European soil might not result in a nuclear attack on Russian soil. The British would certainly attempt to retaliate if there were an attack in the UK but have limited assets. The French are a nation of cowards and so might not respond to an attack on their territory. The United States would probably limit its response to non-Russian territory, perhaps Belarus. It is an unknown.
Know the logic before you open your mouth.
Posted by: Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 80
“Russia has created a "shadow fleet" of tankers to circumvent Western sanctions.
Assembled in 2022, a fleet of 103 tankers will help Russia transport oil to countries such as India, China and Turkey, bypassing Western sanctions. -Financial Times (twitter)
Russia assembles a 'shadow fleet' of more than 100 oil tankers
~Putin tries to bust western sanctions, report said
Sat, December 3, 2022,
The FT article. (No paywall on yahoo!…)
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-assembles-shadow-fleet-more-113852962.html
* Russia has an oil tanker "shadow fleet" to bypass western sanctions, the Financial Times reported. * Shipping brokers and analysts estimated that Moscow added over 100 ships to the fleet, per the FT. * The EU has agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian oil after Poland wanted it set at just $30.Rystad Energy, an energy-consultancy company, said Russia amassed another 103 tankers to add to its fleet this year through purchases and reallocating ships servicing Iran and Venezuela.
Russia assembled what the industry described as the "shadow fleet" in a bid to counter new sanctions.
Anoop Singh, the head of tanker research at Braemar, told the Financial Times that the new tankers, bought anonymously, are generally 12 to 15 years old and would be expected to be scrapped in the next few years.
"These are buyers that we, as longstanding brokers, are not familiar with. We are confident that the majority of these vessels are destined for Russia," he said.
Analysts estimate a shortfall as Russia still needs more tankers to maintain its export levels, according to the report.
Singh said Braemer expects exports to fall by between 700,000 and 1.5 million barrels a day, while Rystad estimates 200,000 barrels.
Viktor Kurilov, an analyst at Rystad, told the newspaper: "Russia needs more than 240 tankers to keep its current exports flowing."
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 81
I can't see how the price cap is going to work. First, Russia is already selling oil below $60 to favored customers. Second, let's say, hypothetically, that the cap can be imposed. Why would anyone want to buy oil at $70+ from other countries when they can buy it for $60 from Russia.
Posted by: ian | Dec 3 2022 23:17 utc | 63
I believe the theory goes like this:
- the countries this applies to are not allowed due to sanctions to buy Oil direct from Russia
- plus Russia requires payment in Rubles, which was secondary issue.
- therefore 3rd parties like say Turkey for example, would buy the Russia Oil and on-sell that at a premium markup, and reap a big profit as a "wholesaler"
- Turkey buys at $60+/- and on-sells it for market price $80-$100 depending on the day.
- EU buyers buy it and settle in Euros/USD whatever and can import the oil at will up to now.
- Now these same countries are "supposedly" being forced to not pay more than $60 per barrel of Oil that originally came from Russia.
- Turkey et al will not, cannot sell at that price therefore the deal falls through completely.
- Buyers end up with no Oil, Turkey loses mega profits for doing next to nothing.
The "theory" was that this rule would force Russia to sell at lower prices, eg $40/barrel, so that Turkey could sell at $60/barrel. This would hypothetically then restrict the income Russia could receive for it's Oil to fund it's 'evil war' against Ukraine.
EU would get cheaper priced Oil ... with a middle finger to Putin
The other hole in this "theory" is that Russia has upped the ante before it began, being anyone who abides by the max price $60 rule cannot be sold any Russian Oil ... meaning it would cut out 3rd parties like Turkey if it did what the EU wanted.
afaik. I'll defer to other who know better.
That and the Europeans and Americans are idiots, but we knew that right?
Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 4 2022 0:29 utc | 82
An enormously detailed study of the impact of sanctions on the international economy. It concludes that Europe is doomed unless it makes peace soon, on Russia's terms.
Highly recommended here is an alternative link to that given at 46
https://www.leftbrainwave.com/2022/11/the-coming-european-economic-apocalypse.html#TOC2
Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2022 0:32 utc | 83
Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 81
U$… “would probably limit its response to non-Russian territory, perhaps Belarus.”.
Err. Belarus and Russia just yesterday signed another military pact.
They are “one” now. Attack Belarus and you’re attacking Russia.
Internet has nice pics of Shoigu and Lukashenko….
Luka to Shoigu:
There are no any divisions: we are a single group of forces, a single army. We are getting ready today. Everybody knows about it. We are not hiding it. In today's world it is impossible to hide such things.”
“In short, everything is done the way we agreed with the Russian president. You are not just fully aware of it. You are implementing it with our Defense Ministry. We are fulfilling the plans we have agreed upon,” said Aleksandr Lukashenko.
https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-to-shoigu-neither-russia-nor-belarus-wants-any-war-155147-2022/
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:33 utc | 84
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 3 2022 21:44 utc | 50
"What can they do with those Euros? Difficult to spend them by buying goods from Europe. Sanctions see to that. Difficult to spend them by buying goods from non-European or non-Western countries - those transactions are increasingly bilateral deals that don't need Western currency, or maybe straight barter deals.
So where do those Euros get spent?"
I think you've missed the last part of this process. The Euros are deposited in a GazProm account (and sold immediately) in the Moscow Stock Exchange (i.e open market). And then the proceeds are deposited into GazProm bank account in roubles. The contracts are considered paid in full when all money are deposited in roubles in GazProm bank.
Posted by: TonyL | Dec 4 2022 0:35 utc | 85
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 3 2022 22:05 utc | 53
You are right. If Uncle Sam gets his way the Euro will become the Europeso, a currency that for Russia, Asia and the rest of the world won't be any more worth than that of any generic Central American republic. Someone seems to have overlooked this little detail when putting this plot together, if not in the US at least in Europe.
Posted by: gatobart | Dec 4 2022 0:36 utc | 86
Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:33 utc | 85
A fiction seen as such not only by the relevant players but by anyone with eyes. Belarus is not Russia.
Posted by: Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:39 utc | 87
Know the logic before you open your mouth.
Posted by: Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:25 utc | 81
---
There is no such thing as logic when it comes to nukes.
Posted by: Nobody | Dec 4 2022 0:41 utc | 88
Old canadian @ 67
The banks/investment houses were gambling with Jon Q Public's deposits money, which is fine until the margin calls start.
Mostly recently seen in FTX, "exchange" is just the digital era charlatan's term for "bank". Best way to rob a bank is to own one. New tech, old con.
Outraged @ 73
An excellent maneuver. Yet an another accelerant re de-dollarization, exchange 'em (quickly) or be amongst the last left holding worthless script
It's a salting the earth policy, we are far from that, first you have to defeat the empire then you can salt the earth, but maybe in hybrid war you can flip things around. I say careful what you wish for, the empire will nuke everyone before it lets itself be paraded in chains like Vercingetorix through the streets of Rome.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 0:42 utc | 89
re: Old canadian | Dec 3 2022 23:52 utc | 67 and Outraged | Dec 3 2022 23:52 utc | 68
Here in the US, I used to accept the legitimacy of the dollar until I started wondering what the value of "the promise to pay to the bearer on demand" was actually worth in real terms. But the torrent of digital dollars created out of thin air in the last several years has made me view the entire operation as a racket; the promise to pay is worthless, there has never been any intention of paying off the astronomical debts incurred by this system, which is designed to keep the ruling banksters and elites in control indefinitely
Control of the banking system and legal system can force the citizens of a nation to accept currency/dollars in exchange for goods and services, but it ultimately can't make other nations accept that same currency once it is debased by endless deficit spending. Black budgets and double sets of books have kept the real number of dollars hidden from global eyes for many years, but the hockey stick curve of US money supply has hit the stratosphere and it can no longer be disguised.
The Bretton Woods agreement and the subsequent petrodollar deal with OPEC led the nations of the world to accept the dollar as the global reserve currency; the US used the ability to create unlimited dollars out of thin air to set up 1000 military bases around the world and spend $1 trillion per year to enforce its control/hegemony.
But all that is ending now, hastened by the torrent of digital dollars created during the last several years, along with the theft of Russian financial assets, which showed the world the US had no reservations about stealing anyone's money. China certainly noticed. And the fools in Washington seem to think they can win a trade war with the nation they are utterly dependent upon for their manufactured goods and pharmaceutical medicines. LOL Just as the Biden regime thinks they can make Russia "back down"; the lunatics are in charge of the asylum.
Like psychohistorian has been saying for years, this war is very much about the control of the global financial system. The decadent West refuses to relinquish its claim to hegemony/dollar supremacy, but it has already lost this battle through deindustrialization and the utter corruption of its ruling classes, who believe their own propaganda and are blinded by hubris. The world has come to see that the digital dollars, which clothe the Western emperor, are transparently worthless.
A hard rain is beginning to fall.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 4 2022 0:49 utc | 90
From various twitter:
> A demonstration against the supply of weapons to Ukraine took place in in Rome today.
Protesters take to the streets of the city with flags and burn flares.
According to the organizers of the action, about 10 000 people take part in the demonstration. #Italy
> In Greece, a train with NATO military equipment derailed near the port of Alexandroupolis. Protesters come out in force next to train that derailed, carrying NATO armored vehicles on their way to Ukraine through Greece
> A rally in memory of the dead children of #Donbass was held in Tel Aviv yesterday… [ Dead Palestinian children?? ]
> Arrivals are reported on the #Kramatorsk machine building plant.
The #Russian Army, presumably hit the SKMZ (Starokramatorsky Machine-Building Plant), which is engaged in the repair of AFU equipment.
> Transfomers caught fire in Dnipropetrovsk from overload
> UAC handed over to the Russian Ministry of Defense a batch of new Su-35S aircraft.
Multifunctional fighters of the 4++ generation have passed a cycle of ground and flight tests.
> U.S. Air Force reveals the new stealth B-21 Raider intercontinental strategic bomber, produced by Northrop Grumman
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:57 utc | 91
@ LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 0:42 utc | 90
Every time US has been directly challenged, even attacked/defeated or humiliated, by 'near' peers, it has stood down ... acquiesced.
More & more, seriously doubt the calculus has changed. These days they'll self immolate ?
Even ruling over US mainland reverted to ~1890 status, must be more appealing to the Vampyres than becoming a radiated crispy critter, or being spit roasted & devoured by your 'in revolt' former security detail, inside yer luxurious bunker ...
Random thought ? How many psychopaths or arch-narcissists are documented to have consciously chosen to commit suicide in utter despair & depression ?
Nexus | Dec 4 2022 0:39 utc | 88
Belarus (white Russia) may not be Russia.
But don’t be thinking it can be attacked without prompting a Russian response as if Russia itself had been attacked.
#Union State
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:59 utc | 93
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 4 2022 0:49 utc | 91
The technocrat/banker elites of the US will force US to go militarily berserk, threatening stance all across the board, and into insanity, world wide as non-G7 and non-western countries fold to the other system they cannot control. This is easily seen already everywhere across the western political and media spectrum. There's no more low hanging fruits they can steal resources from. Not even in Africa.
The financial control of the west are unraveling and the western citizens will be consumed next, starting with Europeans. Everyone knows that inevitability, but no one knows exactly the timeframe.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2022 1:04 utc | 94
Posted by: james | Dec 3 2022 16:27 utc | 5
So you mean this area? All those places in a line down the H20 so that's more or less the boundary, the front line we need to cross?
Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 0:59 utc | 94
Belarus can be attacked without prompting a Russian response as if Russia itself had been attacked. Union State is a fiction. Belarus is not Russia. It will be someday, but not until there's been a limited nuclear exchange in Poland and Belarus.
Posted by: Nexus | Dec 4 2022 1:12 utc | 96
Weapons delivered to Ukraine 'beginning to filter' to Africa: Nigeria
Weapons supplied to Ukraine from Western countries are "starting to flow" into the Lake Chad basin region, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari warned this week.
Addressing the heads of states from neighboring states participating in the Lake Chad Basin Commission on Tuesday in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, the president said,
"Regrettably, the situation in the Sahel and the raging war in Ukraine serve as major sources of weapons and fighters that bolster the ranks of the terrorists in the region."The Nigerian president agreed to step up military coordination in their countries' war against Boko Haram and ISIS*** terrorists, who are now apparently receiving weapons from Ukraine, alongside the leaders of Benin, Chad, Niger, and the Central African Republic.
Last month, Finnish police said that some of the "huge quantities" of weapons being shipped to Ukraine had made their way to Finland, where "three of the world’s largest motorcycle gangs" now operate, including Bandidos MC, which "has a branch in every major city in Ukraine."
In August, an American news outlet unmasked that a shockingly large amount of weaponry heading for Ukraine was untraceable.
"Like 30% of it reaches its final destination," said a tweet that was later deleted after a swarm of online trolls attacked it.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/weapons-delivered-to-ukraine-beginning-to-filter-to-africa:
***[the U$ feeding its pets table scraps????] [I’m shocked.. shocked… to discover U$ weapons have made their way across continents to U$ initiated terror groups]
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 4 2022 1:14 utc | 97
TonyL @ 86
I think you've missed the last part of this process. The Euros are deposited in a GazProm account (and sold immediately) in the Moscow Stock Exchange (i.e open market.
And very clever, maybe Glazyev's doing. For that brief instant while in the stock exchange the euros are off the ECB's ledger and can't be frozen with a keystroke. The Russians have been very clever macro-wise, who'd have thought a bunch of ex-commies could figure it out so fast? Actually the best capitalists are the ones who've read and understand Marx.
The euro represents a highly developed skilled economic zone of 500 million people, it's not going to turn into Weimar deutschmarks, unless Eurolandia breaks up (which is different from NATO breaking up). The dollar won't turn to confetti either as it also represents a huge population with resources and advanced skills. Russia and China want access to those two developed markets for their high quality finished goods, they are fighting to not be isolated from the west, it is the west that is trying to isolate them. This is why it's a hybrid war, Russia and China are trying to save the west, as that is what is best for them in the long term.
At some point even if worse comes militarily things will settle, maybe in twenty years, but dollars and euros will have plenty of value. What will change post 2022 is no country anywhere will hold a giant pile of forex as savings of anything, euros, dollars, rmb, rupee etc ever again. At some point the USA and EU if they want their currencies to retain value, ie have utility in global trade, will have to accept at least in part the basket of currencies the BRICS+ are putting together. Problem is making it through now to then.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 1:18 utc | 98
The EU has already informed Ukraine that once the oil products sanctions/cut off goes into effect that it won’t be able to keep up diesel supplies to Ukraine.
IIRC, Russian production costs are about $20/bbl. It can afford to offer discounts to friendly countries who then hammer europe with market rates. Friendly country profits and Russia gets good will and revenue. OPEC is already talking about further production cuts and it looks like a direct response to the US trying to blow a hole in the oil market with the price cap. Japan is panicking.
Maybe there’s a grand plan in the west but it continues to look like DC and Brussels are just throwing anything at the issue in hopes that something works.
Posted by: Lex | Dec 4 2022 1:18 utc | 99
Outraged @ 93
Random thought ? How many psychopaths or arch-narcissists are documented to have consciously chosen to commit suicide in utter despair & depression ?
That's an oddly optimistic point!
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 4 2022 1:24 utc | 100
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Winter's coming.
Z's goose is almost cooked.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Dec 3 2022 15:52 utc | 1