Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 02, 2022

Newsbits On Ukraine - Swamp Trenches, Short Training, Out Of Ammo

Realistic reports from the Ukrainian frontline are rare. Yesterday the British Express had this (@7:30, also here) from Bakhmut / Artemovsk in its Live coverage. One wonders how it has bypassed the censor:

Inside Bakhmut frontline 'littered with corpses' and 'colossal' losses

The Ukrainian commander of the Svoboda battalion, Petro Kuzyk, whose unit is one of those holding Bakhmut said his soldiers are staying in trenches full of corpses, fighting in extremely cold conditions and in knee-deep water against Russia's attacks.
...
"I apologise for speaking slowly now, because I'm very cold – it's making me dizzy. I've now left the first line (since I was called). I'm warming up in the car, I'm almost falling asleep, because I haven't slept all this time. They charged yesterday, quite seriously. They felt a weakness in our defence, because (I will not name the numbers of the units, so as not to spoil their honour) there are units that are less motivated than ours. And yesterday they weakened our defence a little in the area just around the Bakhmut. Some units could not withstand this artillery onslaught and retreated.

"This is our principle: we, the Svoboda Battalion, do not retreat. And because of that, we found ourselves in a semi-surrounded situation, and we had a lot of work to do. In addition, it is a swamp full of mud. It is very difficult to evacuate the wounded or to deliver ammunition. The trenches are constantly deteriorating, and in this swamp they must be constantly rebuilt."

He added: "Today is the first day without rain, but then and yesterday when it fell, all the water flowed into the trenches. And the shelling was such that it was impossible to get out of the trench, so the guys were constantly wet for a day or two. Plus the temperature is like this. Many are contused, many with pneumonia. But we hold our ground, and we defend. I see young guys standing with their teeth clenched. I would really like someone to write about their achievements, because few people in the country know about it."

The above reads like a report from Verdun.

---

More from that Express Live coverage (@8:31):

Biden mulling expansion of US military training to Ukraine forces

The US administration is considering expanding the US military training programme it provides to Ukraine, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month at a US base in Germany.

According to US officials speaking to CNN, "under the new programme, the US would begin training much larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers in more sophisticated battlefield tactics, including how to coordinate infantry manoeuvres with artillery support – 'much more intense and comprehensive' training than Ukraine has been receiving in Poland or the UK, according to one source briefed on the proposal".

The proposal is still under review.

This program seems weird. If it is only one month long there is no way that the soldiers will learn coordinated maneuvers. One learns those by knowing and experiencing the doctrines of all involved elements - infantry, tanks, artillery, supply etc. Those are sergeant or officer courses tat take at least 6 months and usually more.

The number of 2,500 is also questionable. The Ukrainian army is currently losing around 400 men per day. The training will not hold up with those losses.

---

A week ago I described how Ukraine is running on empty:

Aside from HIMARS Ukraine's front artillery has become smaller with less reach than those systems used on the other side. That will make it  easier to counter it. Ukraine also has an acute lack of ammunition for those few weapons that still exist. It has long lost the artillery war.

The war in Ukraine is waged on an industrial level. But the 'west' and its Ukrainian proxy are not prepared for industrial warfare.

Another piece from the Express confirms this (@1:40)

Ukraine and NATO allies facing 'major issue' amid heavy fight against Russian forces

A retired US general has pinpointed a "major issue" for NATO as the West look to keep up with ammo demands as fighting in Ukraine continues to eat up Western stockpiles.

Ukraine is burning through ammunition and shells at a faster rate than the West can maintain according to retired US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton.

The former commander believes that NATO lacks the industrial base to replace depleted stockpiles and Ukraine continues to demand ammunition to use against Russian forces.

Mr Leighton told CNN: "The defence industrial base of all these countries, the NATO countries in Europe as well as the United States it is really not built for this kind of war.

"That very fact has made it really difficult for the West to resupply Ukraine, Ukraine is using weapons at a very high rate it is using ammunition as well as part of this.

"Then the other thing we are confronted with is the barrels of the various artillery pieces are overheated because of overuse.

"So that is a major for the Ukrainians and for the West, especially if the West wants to continue helping the Ukrainians stop the Russians."

Posted by b on December 2, 2022 at 15:13 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Thin line between bravado and stupidity…..

Posted by: Mikko | Dec 2 2022 15:21 utc | 1

Some of the Ukranian ultra-stiff / suicidal resistance in Bakhmut probably has to do with their own perception of the psychology of the situation. They don’t want Russians to have anything to cheer about. Their own losses are obscurable, whereas acquisition of territory is tangible and irrefutable.

Another part is probably Ukraine using their ultra-right wing fanatics as cannon fodder. Kill ‘‘em off so you don’t have them blocking your inevitable peace negotiations.

Nevertheless, can’t follow the logic that Bakhmut is an essential centerpiece to Ukrainian defenses in Donbas. Once it falls, just use the other roads. I can read a map and they have options. If there’s something I’m missing link me an article.

Posted by: GoFast | Dec 2 2022 15:25 utc | 2

According to US officials speaking to CNN, "under the new programme, the US would begin training much larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers in more sophisticated battlefield tactics, including how to coordinate infantry manoeuvres with artillery support – 'much more intense and comprehensive' training than Ukraine has been receiving in Poland or the UK, according to one source briefed on the proposal"

(Looks up): Artillery support? What artillery support? From where? And how?


Posted by: Ursula Zandt | Dec 2 2022 15:26 utc | 3

Thanks for the Ukraine update b

It seems clear that additional forces and equipment at this point are too little and too late to save Ukraine from losing the SMO. The further into winter the SMO proceeds that more obvious this will become.

I still believe that some of the timing of the SMO activities are integrated into the bigger civilization war we are in and if/when an alternative system of finance is put forward, it will effect the Ukraine/NATO SMO significantly.

The shit show continues until it doesn't and the human carnage from this shit show does not speak well of our species past and present. Hopefully our future will be more peaceful.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 2 2022 15:26 utc | 4

"This is our principle: we, the Svoboda Battalion, do not retreat."
Amazing that he hasn't been promoted to NATO general since he certainly qualifies. Hell why stop there, he's as qualified and intelligent as Hitler was so why isn't he president/führer, is he shy?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 2 2022 15:36 utc | 5

Here's a doofus claiming that Russia has lost 90,000 - 100,000 soldiers while Ukraine has only lost 10,000 - 20,000: https://twitter.com/HelloMrBond/status/1598183237284528128

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Dec 2 2022 15:42 utc | 6

news headline
"Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US"
There's no cure for stupid.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 2 2022 15:43 utc | 7

@Zanon 5

The Ukraine army started out with at least a 3 to 1 advantage in the number of soldiers. I believe it was something like 750,000 Ukrainians and about 225,000 Russian personnel. Even being greatly outnumbered, the Russians advanced for months, but apparently, the supply of HIMARS and U.S. intel helped Ukraine stop the Russian advance and achieve some territorial gains in the Kharkiv area. I don't consider the Russian retreat from Kherson city to be a big victory, just a tactical retreat by the Russians.

I think you're just kidding yourself if you believe the whole tenor of this war will not change once all of the new Russian troops are introduced. My expectation is for a forceful thrust through Ukraine to threaten Kiev and cut off all supply lines to the Donbas and Odessa. While Scott Ritter believes Russia won't achieve final victory until the end of next summer (see recent video with Judge Napolitano), I believe that General MacArthur's strategy should apply here (hit 'em where they ain't), thus I believe 1000 tanks can roll or blast their way through Zaporizhia to the Uman area, then divide to cut off supplies, cut off Odessa, and attack Kiev. The UAF soldiers hiding in trenches in Bakhmut and Avdiivka and other places on the current front can remain their until they run out of ammo and surrender.

Zanon -- are you for real? Where are you?

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 2 2022 15:44 utc | 8

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 15:28 utc | 5

If Ukraine have lost 100k soldiers as some here seems to fool themselves with

Hold on, sparky! Not "some here" ... Ursula Von Der Laydown herself

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 15:45 utc | 9

An humble prognosis...
Putin will hit the Ukies HARD till the Orthodox Christmas (7/1) then late January the hammering will resume.

The peace talk offer by Biden is the final nail in the country's coffin : it proves Russia is winning big time. And Putin - who's no fool - knows he has the advantage and he's to exploit it to the max.

Delenda Ukraina?

Posted by: Nanker | Dec 2 2022 15:45 utc | 10

There are no toilets in those trenches either -- yuk.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 2 2022 15:47 utc | 11

"This is our principle: we, the Svoboda Battalion, do not retreat."

As long as there is enough Nazis to shoot "deserters" in the back (what brave Nazi heroes) and enough captagon, meth etc. to keep the cannonfodder "fearless"...

The self-de-Nazification of Ukraine continues, too bad so many press-ganged Ukraine citizens have to die because of such Nazi idiocies.

Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 2 2022 15:48 utc | 12

Kuzyk's report makes me think there will be a lot of trench foot affecting soldiers there, specially on Ukrainian side, since they can't rotate as much as on the Russian side. This has been a major issue for sodliers in that part of Europe, from Napoleon's invasion to both world wars.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 2 2022 15:49 utc | 13

Zanon, the western media has been lying to you (to all of us) about Ukrainian victories. There haven't been any major victories. Occasionally, Russia will shift positions to protect their front lines. If you look at the maps, Russia is still pretty much at the apex of their advances. With the Ukrainians losing its air force, its navy and much of its army and artillery, the Russian plans to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine continues successfully. The alternative would be to have to hunt down nazis behind the lines. The current strategy ensures that a large percentage of the nazis will have self-destructed whenever a truce is ever called.

Russia is continuing this slow, steady destruction of the Ukrainian military because that is its goal. Two days up to your ankles in freezing water is unpleasant. Two weeks is more than even the most determined nazi can endure.

Read this to begin to understand what is happening now: https://fpif.org/seven-decades-nazi-collaboration-americas-dirty-little-ukraine-secret/

Posted by: Bob In Portland | Dec 2 2022 15:52 utc | 14

US "diplomacy" goes beyond sanctions to requiring surrender.
...from The Moscow Times
Kremlin Turns Down Biden’s Conditions for Putin Talks

The Kremlin on Friday rejected U.S. President Joe Biden’s conditions that Russian troops fully withdraw from Ukraine before he speak with President Vladimir Putin.
In the strongest suggestion so far that he would be prepared to sit down with Putin, Biden said late Thursday he would be willing to speak to the Russian leader for the first time since the Ukraine invasion if he truly wants to end the war.
"There's one way for this war to end — the rational way. Putin to pull out of Ukraine, number one. But it appears he's not," Biden said.. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 2 2022 15:53 utc | 15

Zanon -- are you for real? Where are you?
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 2 2022 15:44 utc

Zanon, and many others here are pure trolls. Their refusal to comprehend factual info put before them says it all.

But their paychecks depend on them not understanding.

Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 2 2022 15:54 utc | 16

Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 2 2022 15:48 utc | 13

"This is our principle: we, the Svoboda Battalion, do not retreat."

This is exactly what the Russians want.
The worst thing the Russians could face is an army that keeps running around forcing them to expend resources chasing after them from East to West.

Bravery is the pressure feeding the AFU into the grinder.

This is how Bravery becomes a Vice.
And how Strength becomes a Weakness.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 15:54 utc | 17

Interesting article which discusses the likelihood that the war will lead to nuclear exchanges -- if Russia is winning and the U.S. or NATO get directly involved, or if Russia appears to be weaker and Crimea is attacked. The link to this article is:

https://en.news-front.info/2022/12/02/nuclear-strikes-cannot-be-avoided-the-logic-of-events-in-ukraine-leads-to-them-anyway/

Personally, as I have previously stated, I believe Russia must demonstrate enough strength in the near future to dissuade NATO and the U.S. from making some futile effort to win this war.

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 2 2022 16:00 utc | 18

"This is our principle: we, the Svoboda Battalion, do not retreat."

This is exactly what the Russians want.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 15:54 utc

I agree the Russians are finding the situation somewhat convenient, but I doubt this is what they "want".

The primary Russian message has always been for the non-Nazi Ukrainians to stop supporting the Nazis and help Russia clear the Rothschild-backed nazi scum from their country. But alas those pleas fell on deaf ears, and the slaughter of all continues as it must.

Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 2 2022 16:02 utc | 19

Okay one more (there seems to be thousands):

"I see young guys standing with their teeth clenched."
Yeah that's the ticket when explosions are around, especially in somewhat confined spaces. Some ex-Ukrainians were/are miners but they clearly kept their "secrets" well.

I'm plenty stupid myself but I can't recall seeing a single example of anything out of "the west" and the ex-Ukraine nazis in this conflict that wasn't pure stupidity and ignorance.

Do they run around saluting each other all the time as well? I bet they do.

The training they receive must be abysmal and not cover any basics at all except for which end goes boom.

That might be why there's been so little surrender; they simply don't understand how badly they're doing because they have no basis upon which to form such an appraisal of their situation. Most ex-Ukrainian military with a brain fled to Russia or were cleansed by the nazis and no-one with a brain stays in NATO forces.

All exceptions are spies! :D (is that blood on my hands?)

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 2 2022 16:07 utc | 20

#8
Europe is not strong without US.

Finnish PM is worrying about a decrease in Bolivian marching powder supply from the CIA. At least she has her priorities straight.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Dec 2 2022 16:07 utc | 21

Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 2 2022 16:02 utc | 19

I agree the Russians are finding the situation somewhat convenient, but I doubt this is what they "want".

Well, of course they "want" unicorns, candies and rainbows but I mean "want" as within the very limited range of options they can expect.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 16:07 utc | 22

The context from Reuters


Russian President Vladimir Putin is "open to negotiations" on Ukraine but the West must accept Moscow's demands, the Kremlin said on Friday, a day after U.S. President Joe Biden said he was willing to talk if Putin were looking for a way to end the war.

Sounds like a clear Russian position to me that has not changed since the outset of the SMO.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 2 2022 16:09 utc | 23

news headline
"Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US"
There's no cure for stupid.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 2 2022 15:43 utc | 8

Indeed. Slackjawed trollops (female trolls) seem very popular as heads of state and defense ministers of late. Used to be you could at least expect them to be coherent. I don't remember cocaine being half so popular since the 80s either.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 2 2022 16:09 utc | 24

Those people like Zanon refuse to see the facts that are right in front of their eyes. You would almost think they are trolling just to get a rise out of people.
For the record- the momentum and motivation is ALL on the side of the DPR/LPR Militia and Russian Forces. They currently have the upper hand and nothing the west can do (conventionally) will ever change that fact. All the rest is just noise!!

Ursula has stated that the EU and the US are going to put together a special international tribunal/court with the help of the UN to charge Russia with numerous war crimes. Bwa-hahaha-HAHAHAHA! Pot meet kettle....

Posted by: safe | Dec 2 2022 16:14 utc | 25

The whole claim that Ukraine lose people does not make sense. If Ukraine have lost 100k soldiers as some here seems to fool themselves with, why are then or rather still, russia the one retreating for the past 5 months? That proves that Russia lose a whole lot of people too. To understand war one cannot just judge one 1 all the time.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 15:28 utc | 5

If you understood Russian manoeuvre defence you would not have posted this. Retreating to a more advantageous position to preserve men and material whilst inflicting heavy losses on the enemy. Kherson is a perfect example of this doctrine.

Ukraine instead has no qualms wasting men and material to defend positions they are in a serious disadvantage at.

That is why Ukraine and Russian retreats are not the same and neither the casualty rates.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 2 2022 16:17 utc | 26

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 16:15 utc | 26

Of the two versions of the story, what makes you believe the 'corrected' version?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 16:18 utc | 27

Don Bacon@12...dug my share of slit trenches, doesn't matter what size the trench is, they are all latrines at the end of a heavy arty day.
Seems the Brits have taught the Ukies the Art of the Stuff Upper Lip, clenched teeth and all.....cue the Gonzalo Lira laugh track. Hmm, what might a troll say.......winnnnnnng!

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 2 2022 16:19 utc | 28

In Germany the Bundeswehr will be no help.
from DW
Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, German leaders vowed to boost the Bundeswehr, by investing an extra €100 billion in equipment and taking on a leading role internationally. But so far, little seems to have happened.
. . .If this is true (and such information cannot be confirmed, as it is a state secret), German ammunition supplies are well below the standards expected by NATO, which requires each member to have 30 days' worth of ammunition. To make up that shortfall alone, defense experts say Germany needs to invest €20 - €30 billion ($21 - $31 billion). 
There are plenty of other shortages. The state of the Bundeswehr's equipment has long been a topic of concern: Stories about tanks and helicopters that needed repairing, rifles that don't shoot properly, and soldiers having to train in the cold without thermal underwear have filled the media for years. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 2 2022 16:20 utc | 29

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 16:23 utc | 31

Because that is a more logical one and goes along with other estimates, 100k dead soldiers on the other hand is a tremendously high number.

Sorry, this doesn't accord with any logic known to man. Try again.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 16:25 utc | 30

Bakmut was in the headlines before Balaklia offensive
Bakmut was in the headlines During Koupiansk offensive
Bakmut was in the headlines During Izium offensive
Bakmut was in the headlines during Lyman offensive
Bakmut was in the headlines when half of Kershon pocket collapsed
Bakmut was in the headlines when Kershon collapsed
Bakmut was in the headlines now in Svatove offenssive.
Russian are still in the outskirt of Bakmut city.

Posted by: murge23 | Dec 2 2022 16:26 utc | 32

It's truly astonishing that the British tabloid, Express, printed the story. Perhaps we should expect some walk-back very soon, since that is the western modus operandi. CBS broadcast the missing weapons and quickly reversed and deleted it; Ursula von der Leyen's admission about the loss of the Ukronazis forces was quickly reversed and deleted.

Posted by: Steve | Dec 2 2022 16:28 utc | 33

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 16:28 utc | 35

I'm just asking for your so called "logic". Is that so hard?
I mean, you put forward "beliefs" and you call it logic ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 16:31 utc | 34

@26-31
AGAIN. You are ignoring the real numbers and best estimates. Poles, mercenaries and old ukies are running around in the freezing mud right now. WHERE did the 200,000 or even 500,000 "best trained" ukie soldiers go? Where are they Zanny??

Posted by: safe | Dec 2 2022 16:31 utc | 35

Russia should just stay the course, drag this war out as long as possible, and bleed the west dry. There is very little industrial capacity left in the US, most of it went to China. Plus, nobody here wants to work with their hands. Everyone is too busy trying to become a crypto gazillionaire or start their own online business.

Only the Mexicans and Central Americans want to work.

Posted by: Chris | Dec 2 2022 16:31 utc | 36

This is worse than Verdun. Right now on 2/12/2022 Verdun has a hi of 39F-Low 37F Bakhumt has a Hi of 31F and a low of 24F. The disaster is just starting, just wait for General Winter to get serious. Given the temperature differences and the fact that Ukrainian trenches are keeping the soldiers wet is bad. The officer who wrote the description of the area he is in is suffering from hypothermia. Hypothermia is no joke, it can incapacitate and kill within hours.

Posted by: Servo | Dec 2 2022 16:31 utc | 37

Bernhard, the 1 month of training is a fig leaf of a 'duty of care' to train them properly. The West is simply using them as cannon fodder, to cause problems for Russia. How those shit brit trainers can sleep at night, KNOWING that they are sending most of the 'trained' to their deaths, ill-prepared for what awaits them.

Posted by: Ralph | Dec 2 2022 16:34 utc | 38

@35
Some people just can't figure things out properly in their heads. There is obviously MORE than 100K ukie dead lying around out there. This is already a given. It's already been understood and acknowledged. What the heck are you trolling about? You sound like you're so sure of yourself but your position is so laughingly incorrect it's madness to think you still believe it!! Wow!

Posted by: safe | Dec 2 2022 16:36 utc | 39

Because that is a more logical one and goes along with other estimates, 100k dead soldiers on the other hand is a tremendously high number.
Likewise I guess no one here believe 100k russians have been killed as Ukraine claims.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 16:23 utc | 31

How many ukies do you think are dead then?

Posted by: Midville | Dec 2 2022 16:41 utc | 40

@33
Thanks for the link buddy, I needed a good laugh this morning. That is what we call ukie propaganda non?

Posted by: safe | Dec 2 2022 16:44 utc | 41

My humble estimates, gruesome as they are.

Ukraine forces - 165,000 KIA. Another 200,000 wounded.

Russian forces - 55,000 KIA. Another 40,000 wounded.

Disparity?

Ukraine early and often left dead and wounded behind when retreating. Many "bled out" before capture. Russian forces retrieve wounded and dead if at all possible.

That is happening again as winter comes in. If you don't have the vehicles to get ammo into the front, you don't have vehicles to get the wounded out of the front. In addition, Russia has attacked numerous training facilities and formation points far from the front. Ukraine attacks have not been against Russian troops except near the front. As much as 1/4 of the Ukraine losses are well away from the front.

Recall Ukraine lost 12,000+ in Mariopole alone. Another 8,000+ in Lysychansk. Over the fall probably another 5,000-6,000 in attacks on Kherson. That is over 25,000 just in those 3 battles.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Dec 2 2022 16:48 utc | 42

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 16:40 utc | 43

That is the denialism you must get rid of, make-believe logic is for toddlers and you are no toddler are you? :)

So you can't admit that your "logic" is fundamentally just your beliefs and preferences leading you to accept whatever Ursula V. der Leyden says along with one set of speculations about the truth, with no factual basis. That you're quite fine with being lied to by one party with an intensive track record of lying.

As for my beliefs about the 100K number: I have no beliefs about the number.

What do I believe? I believe the Ukrainian casualty rate is *multiple times* the Russian casualty rate. This can be supported by a reasonable line of logic.

Now your turn: What's your line of logic supporting your assertion that the censoring corrections of V. der Leyen's speech indicates the correct number?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 16:48 utc | 43

thanks b...

war is so depressing.. i feel sorry for everyone in all this and i do blame the west for this too...

zanon question on how many russian dead....

i honestly believe the numbers of dead and injured are way higher for ukraine then they are for russia.. now, you can add the mercenaries fighting for ukraine into the mix too, but i believe the numbers are lopsided and that ukraine is taking a much bigger hit.. but of course it is speculation on my part.. if i am to read western msm - ukraine has been winning since feb 24th... it seems to me that western media is full of shite and that the opposite is in fact the case... see the commentary that b has posted in this thread as a sign...

Posted by: james | Dec 2 2022 16:48 utc | 44

Posted by: Chris | Dec 2 2022 16:31 utc | 39

Only the Mexicans and Central Americans want to work.

What a coincidence, I just read this article about Mexico and the US border. It seems Mexico is going to stop exporting raw petroleum and importing refined products from the USA, instead they'll refine their oil themselves, plus yesterday I read an article in El País, seems that GMO maize is not welcome in Mexico. The day is approaching and the USA will have its own Ukraine under Dodge, all states with Spanish names were Mexico, well Florida could be Cuban, and the way things are going.... they're gonna crucify me as Lennon used to sing. The article is in Russian, do a digitrans.

https://dzen.ru/a/Y4hfBM_qniqs1kEb

Posted by: Paco | Dec 2 2022 16:49 utc | 45

And why would anyone enjoy that 100k ukrainians have died?

Why not? They are nazis and all nazis deserve to die. Denazification, together with demilitarization, is part of the objectives of the SMO, after all.

Posted by: Midville | Dec 2 2022 16:50 utc | 46

Easiest way to find the real answer is to be wrong on the internet so here goes another comment ;)

A hundred thousand is very unlikely in my opinion, instead if one counts both the front and all kinds of internal nastiness I would have a guess at close to a million dead ex-Ukrainians.

0. Russians dividing the number of dead nazis by ten in their public reports makes perfect sense and might fit better with the material destruction. NATO and the nazis might have lost track long ago and are anyway stupid enough to on their own internally try to make things look ten times better than they are (the real lesson of Viet Nam not learnt).

1. Western ex-Ukraine must be pretty desolate for the Polish to be sniffing around (and for the nazis to let them), and if western ex-Ukraine is desolate then the rest of the former country is as well.

2. The claim of only non-Ukrainian/Russian spoken on the nazi radios.

3. A lot of ex-Ukrainians fled to Russia starting in 2014. Easily 10 million, maybe millions more.

4. "Recruiting" old folks, kids, and women means all the fat is long gone. There's only so few "elite" troops one can hide elsewhere for later when things will be even worse (it's stupid enough they might have tried it).

Essentially only the cities could be left and there might not be as many people in those as is claimed. Three million is Kiev sounds like a ridiculous overestimate to me. Instead that sounds like what might be much closer to the number for all of the still to be liberated parts. Okay let's say six million instead.

The country is still hollow, no other way to describe it.

If one had historical data for comparison and the real details on production and imports into ex-Ukraine for this year then one would know for sure, I don't.

(Lol I promise to stop posting for a while now, I should put this temporary boost in energy to better use).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 2 2022 16:51 utc | 47

Lol Zanny
You are trolling with easily debunked information. Russia has maybe 40K dead AND wounded. Ukraine has between 150K-250K dead and wounded.
It's obvious to anyone that has been following this war so closely. Stop trying to look reasonable and seemingly making sense. It doesn't look good on you.

Posted by: safe | Dec 2 2022 16:52 utc | 48

it seems to me that the Russians are following the guidance of two historical military strategists.
Von Clausewitz
"the quickest way to victory is to destroy the enemies forces not capture cities"
Rommel
"do not fight a battle that even if you win, you gain no advantage from"

these seem to sum things up, look at their stated goals and how they have set about achieving them

Posted by: Blackbird 25 | Dec 2 2022 16:55 utc | 49

Posted by: GoFast | Dec 2 2022 15:25 utc | 2

Maybe one of the things you are missing is that when Bakhmut falls it becomes a transport hub for the Russians.

Posted by: Tim | Dec 2 2022 16:56 utc | 50

I do not how, perhaps 25-30k ukrainian soldiers been killed, in sum russian soldiers (and Donbass volunteers) roughly the same?

Russian casualties being "roughly the same" as ukie casualties is an absolutely idiotic take. Stop trolling friendo.

Posted by: Midville | Dec 2 2022 16:58 utc | 51

Russian barrel artillery is outranging Ukrainian artillery by 5-10 km while delivering ~10x more shells on a volume (not mass) basis.

Is Western surveillance, communications and precision rocket artillery enough to close that gap?

How much advantage does Western surveillance confer? More than a 1 hour headstart?

It seems that time advantage is very near or less than the time required to reposition heavy artillery.

So Ukraine's rocket artillery remains only because it is out of range of Russia's barrel artillery.

I think we will soon see the range war (in time and distance) develop between Ukrainian radar and Russian aviation.

Maybe 50-70km becomes no-mans-land.

More than 70km and goodbye HIMARS.

Posted by: too scents | Dec 2 2022 16:58 utc | 52

Wet in trenches just above freezing is bad for hypothermia. Many will get sick and die. Excrement and urine in trench water too.

Trench warfare in these conditions is moronic unless you just want to kill people that might turn on you later. I suspect that trenches do nothing to protect you from the blast of fuel/air bombs either.

Even without the artillery, being in trenches when drones with IR cameras prowl the area, dropping grenades must be devastating. Hiding out in equipment is even worse since there are endless lancet hits.

I do wonder about the regular trolls who cannot possibly believe what they post. I imagine they are paid psychopaths that have scripts and story lines to demoralize readers and derail conversations. The blog admins must know if their IP address come from Northern Virginia, or perhaps are associated with VPNs.

I feel bad for these poor bastards. While some are brainwashed by propaganda and want to fight, many were just conscripted and forced to fight. They have families and would probably surrender or flee to Russia but risk getting shot in the back by their own side or feel that defection might put family at risk. The real criminals here are the leaders of Europe/USA and the oligarchy and military/industrial/banking complex that own these puppets.

There is an important study called https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0025995 the network of global corporate control. A small group of companies control 40% of everything and are interrelated by mutual cross holdings. No surprise, they are all banking and insurance related with few exceptions. All wars are bankster wars isn't far from the truth.
Scroll down to appendix S1, then look at the table on page 17.

PP

Posted by: PP | Dec 2 2022 16:58 utc | 53

Dear God in heaven. These young Ukrainian men are being slaughtered by their own Govt essentially. Zelensky appears to be resolute in ignoring Zaluhzny and issuing his own orders. These young Ukrainians are lambs to the slaughter on the whim, hubris and greed of a brutal psycopathic Nazi dictator who quite obviously doesn't give a damn about his citizens. He should be arrested alongside Johnson Biden Nuland Von den Lyen and Blinken who are responsible for this carnage.

They should be eexecuted as the War criminals that they are. God Bless the forced Ukrainian Conscripts they are lambs to the slaughter.

God Bless President Putin

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Dec 2 2022 16:59 utc | 54

Posted by: Ursula Zandt | Dec 2 2022 15:26 utc | 3

For Gods sake, who are these Natoists trying to fool? How much training do these Ukies need?

NATO has been training their armies with “advisers” from everywhere, since at least 2014. Are the Ukies even more stupid than the Afghans ; who still didn’t get it after twenty years of training? Anyway, such esoteric knowledge is for officers , not for rank and file Ukie troops.

What were they teaching officers to do all this time? Fight infantry manoeuvres with Slingshot support? This is all “looking good” and trying to sell NATO as still meaning something. The truth is they cant train anyone anything, because there are none left to train and they will be pulverised by the Russians.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 2 2022 17:02 utc | 55

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 2 2022 16:23 utc | 31

I guess no one here believe 100k russians have been killed as Ukraine claims.

No, nobody really, because there are no facts on the ground to support this.
Ukraine is claiming that they lost about 13.000 just today.

And we all know how Ukraine is not telling the truth ever about anything.

Ukraine lost probably well over 200.000 killed and badly wounded.

Russians, all together with militias and externals maybe and if 30 -40.000 dead and wounded.

Ukraine is decimated, almost demilitarized, and stops being a country as we write this.

So, yes, a tragedy, but live with it.

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 2 2022 17:02 utc | 56

@ Jo Dominich | Dec 2 2022 16:59 utc | 55

thanks jo... so true what you say..

Posted by: james | Dec 2 2022 17:07 utc | 57

Huh - why the references to Sanna Marin & cocaine. And to chrystal meth, speed, captagon... Mckinsey lists Urkaine as the country in Europe with the highest consumption of illegal drugs. - How does that all add up? The Urkainian secret service presenting a drug dealer in Kiev and the media then speculating (?) that he did deliver drugs to Selensky too? SBF-TXF-kerfuffles full of drug-stories...

Posted by: Dieter Kief | Dec 2 2022 17:07 utc | 58

@47 You make a lot of sense in that post Sunny although I believe you estimates of Russian Forces dead and wounded is a little high. They have maneuvered out or away so many times to prevent unnecessary deaths in useless (zero advantage) battles.

@49 Blackbird 25 You sir have hit the nail on the head!!

Posted by: safe | Dec 2 2022 17:08 utc | 59

Regarding Comment 5 above: sorry, silly comment. The EU has now acknowledged that more than 100,000 soldiers have been killed on the Ukrainian side. The Russian decisions, in some cases, to retreat rather than fight have been precisely for the purpose of saving Russian soldiers. Russian losses have been far fewer.

Posted by: greg | Dec 2 2022 17:08 utc | 60

Re discussions of Ukrainian casualties versus Russian: Given this is a US/NATO (which includes EU) against Russia, the question is not how many? It's, does it matter to the US? This is not at all clear to me. The war against Russia has informally been extended to direct attacks on key Russian infrastructure, Nordstream as well as the Kerch bridge; key military sites like Sebastopol; threats against detached Russian forces in Syria and Moldova ("Transnistria"); implicit threats against Russian ethnic enclaves like Kaliningrad, and of course the years-long war against ethnic Russians/Russian speakers in the Donbass. Massive Ukrainian casualties undercut these threats how? Explanations don't have to be encyclopedic and legally conclusive, a sketch would suffice.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Dec 2 2022 17:11 utc | 61

Where do I sign up for trolling paychecks?

Also 2500 soldiers per month doesn't mean 1 month of training, it means it can 2500 students at a time, with an unspecified training duration so the pipeline would produce 2500 soldiers a month once the first group is graduated, which would only graduate soldiers after the first training duration 6 months or whatever.

Also any problems the Ukrainians have the Russians in the other trenches have it too and ukraine has been given lots of gear to soldier outside. So this point about war being hell doesn't advantage one side much more in fact it may be worse for Russia as they have no one giving them anything they have to make and transport it all.

Ok email for payment arrangements lol.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 2 2022 17:12 utc | 62

Posted by: murge23 | Dec 2 2022 16:26 utc | 33

As long as it takes, buddy- as long as it takes.

Russia are in no hurry to finish this. They got enough ammo, and a short supply-line.

Their main objective are - after all, de-militarization.

Posted by: Anne B | Dec 2 2022 17:16 utc | 63

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 2 2022 15:47 utc | 12

As bad as raw sewage stinks, nothing holds a candle to carrion.

Will never forget the time my dog came home straight from rolling in a deer carcass. My college roommates & I ran from the house, hurling, lol. I was forced to return, throw him in the bathtub & wash him over & over & over. Holding my breath, running out of the room, closing door behind me, catch a few barely bearable breaths, back into the bathroom, rinse, repeat, over & over. Gaaah. He stank something fierce for days.

Posted by: Mary | Dec 2 2022 17:18 utc | 64

"Russian air defense systems will now have no problem detecting and destroying missiles fired from US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) due to new software, RIA Novosti reported on Friday, citing an unnamed Russian military commander."
Well, I'm glad they finally nailed that one down. They should act immediately to protect the civil population in Donetsk et al. Eva Bartlett's reports don't sound promising at all.
Btw, stop feeding Zanon. Just ignore him.

Posted by: Sektion2B | Dec 2 2022 17:22 utc | 65

That all radio traffic on the unkroid side is now foreign languages gives a good idea of the attrition.
Grandfather volunteering for WWI spent six months in training along with his battalion before heading off to the trenches of France and Belgium. Ukroids training in the UK is a five week crash test dummy course. I guess they are taught which end of the gun to point at the enemy and how to and how many courage pills to take.

As for ukroid trenches, no town planning there. Litter and shit all round them can be seen in drone videos. Duckboards? or other means of keeping trenches/feet dry? Brainwashed drug addled zombies.
Weary Dunlop is someone to read when it comes to surviving under harsh conditions.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 2 2022 17:23 utc | 66

This is very strange:

"Animal eyes in ‘bloody’ packages sent to some of Ukraine’s embassies"

Police cordon off Madrid embassy while parcels also sent to eight other embassies and consulates

Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates

Isobel Koshiw in Kyiv and agencies

Fri 2 Dec 2022 15.54 GMT The Guardian

"Ukraine says a number of its European embassies have received “bloody” packages containing animal eyes, including its embassy in Madrid, which also received a letter bomb earlier this week."

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Dec 2 2022 17:34 utc | 67

Posted by: too scents | Dec 2 2022 16:58 utc | 53

Himars is not "front line artillery" but rather fancy, expensive, long range pin point rocket artillery. Meanwhile ukies have lost their organic artillery tubes and rocket artillery derived from the Soviet Grad. US delivered M777 (150mm) get destroyed and incapacitated regularly. There is a large difference between the 105 and 150mm artillery, former being much less effective. US provided AN/TPQ artillery radars have been destroyed in high quantities, almost on a 1-2 day basis, thanks to the help of loitering drones.

Himars are sometimes destroyed, but so far they remain by far the most elusive to destroy, due to being mounted on trucks. They can shoot 10s of kilometers away and move quickly, which is what they've been doing. But Himars is basically useless as a front line artillery, and doesn't have the volumes.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 2 2022 17:36 utc | 68

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Dec 2 2022 17:34 utc | 73

"Ukraine says a number of its European embassies have received “bloody” packages containing animal eyes, including its embassy in Madrid"

I don't see the problem. It's the weekly meat delivery.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 17:38 utc | 69

"I would really like someone to write about their achievements, because few people in the country know about it."

Someone needs to show this guy a current map because I am not seeing all that many achievements. Oh by the way, whoever that guy was who sent animal eyes to the Ukie embassy, stop that. Don't kill animals just to troll the Ukies. Animals are actually useful. The Euromaidan is not.

Posted by: Peter Kurten | Dec 2 2022 17:42 utc | 70

Himars are sometimes destroyed, but so far they remain by far the most elusive to destroy
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 2 2022 17:36 utc | 74

---

Radar is a higher value target.

Posted by: too scents | Dec 2 2022 17:43 utc | 71

comrade simba | Dec 2 2022 17:34 utc | 72

Reports from DPR, Russian 'opposition' numbers, Russia MoD numbers all coincide. Russian forces have relatively low number of KIA. Going by Ukroid social media, Rus MoD very much understates the number of Ukroids dead and maimed.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 2 2022 17:44 utc | 72

Mary @ 69

Will never forget the time my dog came home straight from rolling in a deer carcass.

Yes, they will do that LOL. It does seem that there are no bad smells to a dog, all smells are all interesting. I guess if you evolve hyper olfactory it has to be that way otherwise you'd go crazy.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 2 2022 17:44 utc | 73

HIMAR rockets are expensive ~ $125k per rocket (250lb payload). Like shooting a porsche each time. The requested ATACMS are ~$1million each. Do the math, if used in quantity it would be like loosing a modern jet after a few salvos. Not very practical for this "industrial" scale combat. I don't know but I don't think the Russians are gonna relent. They have all the advantages.

Posted by: mikey3d | Dec 2 2022 17:45 utc | 74

M777 (150mm)

NATO shell is 155 mm. Russian is 152 mm.

Not that 3 mm make much of a difference, but with 155 mm it is possible to be extended as in 20+ cm longer with extra explosive in, thus more destructive.
I do not know why is that, but so it is.

Just a small correction.

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 2 2022 17:50 utc | 75

You are winning the war by making the other side unable to continue, not by holding on to territory while losing your army in the process. The territory comes, when the other side is unable to fight. Ukraine has gained territory without beating the Russian army and is holding on to territory while losing its army. Ukraine is fighting this war in total disregard to what is actually needed. Why? Because perception is king. Ukraine fights a media war for the Western audience. Ukraine relies on Western support and Western politicians want to see results in form of territory, which is no result at all in military terms, if you cant beat the opponent's army in the process.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Dec 2 2022 17:57 utc | 76

Senseless Slaughter

my tax dollars at work

Tragic

Posted by: Exile | Dec 2 2022 18:05 utc | 77

Its coming up that Russia is negotiating with the iaea to let them guard the nuke plants and Russia will withdraw their military from it.

Well, well, well. They're going to retreat again, and foolishly assume they can negotiate in good faith with the iaea. Guaranteed there will be Ukrainian agents in those inspection teams and it'll take about a week for them to let in Ukrainian troops will then really hold the plant hostage to force more Russian withdrawals.

Again, can we not see that Putin may be a traitor? How can the plan be to use the iaea who are blind to Ukrainian attacks to watch the plant? The only alternative is brain damaged stupidity, neither of which bodes well for those poor Russians put into the meat grinder.

This isn't trolling just a call for dropping us vs them emotions for clear headed rational analysis. B and the Russian fan boys here are crippling themselves with a refusal to consider unpleasant thoughts.

Like question your assumptions. Everyone can see that the war is not being run optimally by Russia, and its been continually collaborating with organizations that constantly betray it. Like how Trump consistently hired people who betray him. Its a cover story. Guys like Putin, Trump, Sanders et al are fake who only lead their followers in circles accomplishing nothing. That's the point its a psy of to neutralize opposition - controlled opposition.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 2 2022 18:13 utc | 78

Lol Zanny
"You are trolling with easily debunked information. Russia has maybe 40K dead AND wounded. Ukraine has between 150K-250K dead and wounded.
It's obvious to anyone that has been following this war so closely. Stop trying to look reasonable and seemingly making sense. It doesn't look good on you."

Posted by "safe"

Those numbers for the Russian losses are in the ballpark for what the Russian MOD has reported. On a 4 to 1 wounded to KIA about 10000 soldiers. The Russian MOD says about 8000 KIA. Whatever the Ukraine Army is losing it is most certainly much higher.

Posted by: george 1 | Dec 2 2022 18:24 utc | 79

I agree the Russians are finding the situation somewhat convenient, but I doubt this is what they "want".

Well, of course they "want" unicorns, candies and rainbows but I mean "want" as within the very limited range of options they can expect.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 16:07 utc

Gee, can you be more obtuse?

For 8 years before the SMO, and even since, Putin, Lavrov and any number of Russian gov't reps have repeatedly stated they did not want this war, did not want to liquidate Ukraine soldiers in battle, asked for MEANINGFUL negotiations and the reply was?

Bupkis, nada, nothing but political arrogance and military belligerence.

This is a US/ZATO/Rothschild-class created/driven war.

So Russia is doing what it has to do.

Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 2 2022 18:25 utc | 80

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 2 2022 17:36 utc | 74

High intensity artillery on the Ukrainian side looks to be close to exhaustion of western inventory and mechanical resilience.

Assuming cost is not the main constraint, anything that can quickly fire a couple of Excalibur rounds and then successfully hide from counter fire will probably still be effective for a while but dense drone surveillance or audio / radar triangulation can direct a salvo of return fire in seconds so not a good long term bet ... shortish-term funding opportunities for m777 and Excalibur manufacturers =)

Rocket artillery has much longer range and greater warhead flexibility. With GLSDB, the rocket is a booster to deliver a glide munition that can then attack in any number of ways. RF has huge inventory and shortish supply lines, other than that artillery is just too conspicuous and difficult to supply for high intensity use. We might be witnessing a kind of last great hurrah.

For high volume, low cost rocker fire, I was wondering about low cost launch tubes bolted onto standard truck beds. Possibly towed out and left in the sticks to be launched on command via some type of comms link. Far enough back to be safe from detection when not firing but close enough to be able to hit the selected target quickly enough to be useful.

Unguided artillery has to be cheap because so many rounds can end up being wasted but even that calculation fails if the gun itself is quickly neutralised. Excalibur is expensive but is at least precise. Rockets are also relatively expensive but are much longer range and more flexible and could potentially be launched from very low cost platforms.

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 2 2022 18:31 utc | 81

Sunny Runny Burger @ 48

Your number sounds high. Dead and wounded maybe.

Anyway there were previously 6 million Ukrainians living and working in RF and they were counted as part of Uke population even if they had been in RF for years and were not coming back except maybe for short visits. Add three million who left this year and we are close to your guess of ten million. Eleven million living in areas now joined to RF. Numbers who have fled, recently to West are all over the map, I consistently see counts of 3 million officially received andguesses it is 8 not 3. The semi-official guess for 2014 population was 40 million. And thatwas probably on the high side, they refuse to do a census. So who is left. Your assessment that Ukraine is hollow sounds exactly correct to me. Which is why I can't come quite to your guess of a million dead.

Also do not forget who has left are young people. Young people left the country and young people have died at the front. The population that remains is elderly. There aren't enough young to take care of the old - so there will be increased mortality amongst the elderly. Failed state in every possible way and your word 'hollow' is apt.

Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 2 2022 18:33 utc | 82

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 2 2022 18:31 utc | 87

For high volume, low cost rocker fire, I was wondering about low cost launch tubes bolted onto standard truck beds.

It's called a "Katyusha"

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 18:35 utc | 83

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 2 2022 18:13 utc | 84

I don’t fool myself at all. This is a bad sign and isn’t Zaporozhia now part of Russia? Isn’t this important Nuclear plant meant to be providing Russian areas with electricity? Didn’t the IAEA refuse to name the ukros as hostile forces - when the Ukros tried to kill them both before they got to the nuclear plant and even when they were in it respectively- whilst the Russians protected the former’s stinking cowardly arses? Didn’t Russia makes waves about so-called potential for “dirty bombs “?

What is Russia up to? Is Putin so beholden to oligarchs he must release it for “ business “?
Has Russia given in to a threat of the Ukies cutting water to the Crimea if the former won’t give up the Zapo nuclear power station? ( See below)

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 2 2022 17:36 utc | 73

Which is why they were used wonderfully to make the Russians withdraw from Kherson. They can hit the Zaporizhia Nuclear plant,they can hit the roads to Crimea and also the canal taking water to Crimea.
Is this 5D chess or what? Food for thought and I am troubled.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 2 2022 18:40 utc | 84

Exile @ 82

Senseless Slaughter

Ooh, good name for a USA military operation. I've been setting aside a list, when I get a solid dozen I'll send it to the Pentagon, for a small copyright fee of course. Here's the list so far:

Manifest Immorality / Feckless Certitude / Murderous Tempest / Disreputable Achievement / Rampant Cadaver / Interventionist God / Unintended Imminence / Senseless Slaughter /

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 2 2022 18:44 utc | 85

I highly recommend an article that is based on the views of Colonel Daniel Davis and Colonel Douglas MacGregor. Colonel Davis believes that the key to Russia winning the war is to take its new troops and cut off the supply lines from Poland (and although Romania isn't mentioned, I would assume this is also implied). While there is some risk in this strategy, the war would be essentially over if Russia does this. I personally believe the risk of a Scott Ritter type slow invasion is far riskier for Russia. The link is:

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/endgame-ukraine-putins-battleplan/

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 2 2022 18:46 utc | 86

«The Ukrainian commander of the Svoboda battalion»

Drawn from one of the most storied fascist groups I guess:

https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/how-poroshenko-passed-the-unpopular-donbas-special-status-law
“What happens when laws regarding Donbas are passed in an open session? The country found out on August 31, 2015. That day, the parliament passed in its first reading constitutional changes granting the Donbas special self-governance. Because the law was perceived as recognizing the Kremlin-backed separatists and would give them certain rights, many Ukrainians flocked to the parliament building to protest. Protests soon grew into clashes with the police, and clashes turned into casualties: a member of the nationalist Svoboda party threw a grenade at national guardsmen, killing four. Two dozen more people were wounded.”

Posted by: JessDTruth | Nov 25 2022 17:09 utc | 53
You should also know that the Ukro-Nazis have organizational continuity to today. They were headed by Stepan Bandera's widow, until 1993 or so, when the Western curators rebranded it as Svoboda Party.

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 2 2022 18:52 utc | 87

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 18:35 utc | 88

Sure =)

But something that can program and launch a modern guided rocket, without the costly / distinctive launcher vehicle like HIMARS or the equivalent RF systems. Something that can be remotely operated and isn’t expensive to replace if lost.

Perhaps NATO will stick with HIMARS-style launcher vehicles in order to limit the proliferation risk. Sounds almost ridiculous but it does give them a way to control what UA can get up to with NATO supplied rocket artillery.

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 2 2022 18:59 utc | 88

«“The former commander believes that NATO lacks the industrial base to replace depleted stockpiles and Ukraine continues to demand ammunition to use against Russian forces.”»

That does not matter: it lacks it now, but it can easily build it up in a few years.

A lot of people think that this is the big moment, but no, the current "special military operation" is but a short beginning of a phase of a plan that has been developing over many years.

When Nuland boasted that buying the Maidan Coup and the ukrainian govenment had cost only $5 billion over 10-15 years, shallow people focus on the $5 billion, but the more important details is that 10-15 years. The USA have been supporting the ukrainian war against the Donbas for 8 years already after that, and the USA DOD/CIA planners presumably think that once this open conflict ends with the RF victory they need, the insurgency that follows will last another 5-10 years at least, as the galician one after WW2, and the mujaheddin one in Afghanistan.

Over the next 10-15-20 years the USA can easily greatly expand their military industry. It is also, but not just, military keynesianism of the sort described by this famous diplomat:

George Kennan "Foreword to 'The Pathology of Power'" by Norman Cousins (Norton, 1987)
George Kennan "At a Century's Ending: Reflections 1982-1995" "Part II: Cold War in Full Bloom" page 118 (1997) ISBN 0-393-31609-2
“Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military-industrial establishment would have to go on, substantially unchanged, until some other adversary could be invented. Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy.”

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 2 2022 19:01 utc | 89

Here's a partial summary of Ukranian war crimes as witnessed by Eva Bartlett:
https://youtu.be/PTi7P-byr2M?t=6059

Posted by: Sektion2B | Dec 2 2022 19:06 utc | 90

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 2 2022 18:59 utc | 96

But something that can program and launch a modern guided rocket, without the costly / distinctive launcher vehicle like HIMARS

Not a flat-bed truck, but perhaps something leaning towards the Club-K: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch2Rqte6XOs (Club-K Container Missile System) ... with some cost compromises of course.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 19:06 utc | 91

news headline
"Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US"
There's no cure for stupid.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 2 2022 15:43 utc | 8

That coincides with the US decision to sell Stinger missiles worth 380 million to Finland. And Marin was on the same kind of charm offensive in Australia as Macron undertook with Biden in Washington.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Dec 2 2022 19:06 utc | 92

Posted by: GoFast | Dec 2 2022 15:25 utc | 2
«Another part is probably Ukraine using their ultra-right wing fanatics as cannon fodder. Kill ‘‘em off so you don’t have them blocking your inevitable peace negotiations.»

The ruthenians probably are very careful about their fascist fanatics, but not necessarily so the USA who are obviously in control: if I were an USA strategist I would wish for situations where lots of ruthenian fascists and other ukrainians are killed by the russians, to ensure that lots of families regard them as martyrs and lots of their relatives want to avenge them by running a large terror campaign inside the Russian Federation.

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 2 2022 19:09 utc | 93

LightYearsFromHome | Dec 2 2022 18:44 utc | 90


Try this:

https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2014/operationName/

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 2 2022 19:10 utc | 94

ZH has a posting up with the title

Putin Tells Scholz More Ukraine Energy Strikes 'Inevitable' Due To West Pumping In Weapons

The quote


Ukraine is bracing for further stepped-up Russian airstrikes targeting its energy infrastructure, with President Vladimir Putin on Friday confirming the next wave is imminent, telling his German counterpart Olaf Scholz that new attacks are "inevitable" due to the West's "destructive" policies.

"It was noted that the Russian Armed Forces had long refrained from precision missile strikes against certain targets on the territory of Ukraine," a Kremlin readout of the telephone call begins. "But now such measures have become a forced and inevitable response to Kyiv's provocative attacks on Russia's civilian infrastructure."

The statement emphasizes NATO's weapons pipeline into Kiev: "Attention was drawn to the destructive line of Western states, including Germany, that are pumping the Kyiv regime with weapons, and are training the Ukrainian military."

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 2 2022 19:10 utc | 95

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 2 2022 19:01 utc | 90

That does not matter: it lacks it now, but it can easily build it up in a few years.

I don't think so.

Capitalism will not allow it.
Capital has a short attention span for such projects with dubious ROI.
The same Capital that cant build bridges and dams anymore because there's no profit to be gained from it.
For what reason would they try to match the combined stocks of the old USSR and new RF?

Especially, by then there will be no Ukraine to fight for.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 2 2022 19:11 utc | 96

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 2 2022 15:26 utc | 4
«additional forces and equipment at this point are too little and too late to save Ukraine from losing the SMO.»

This point may be based on the probable hallucination that the SMO is in trhe view of the USA strategist the end-game; if I were an USA strategist I would welcome a bloody ukrainian defeat, because that's the best way to have many years of insurgency from bases on the NATO borders of fanatical "Gladio" ruthenian terrorist inside the Russian Federation.

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 2 2022 19:11 utc | 97

I suspect the Russians are playing "accomplices" also in this generalized underestimation of the KIA numbers for the Ukrainian side if only for logical, and statistical, reasons. According to military experts, among them Douglas MacGregor and Scott Ritter, the most favorable KIA rate Russia can expect in this kind of situation is a tenth of that of the opposition. Which means that if the number for the Ukrainians is no greater than 120.000 then Russia's own may be estimated at around 12.000. On the other hand if Russia gives as a number for the Ukrainian KIA something like 300.000 then people will conclude that Russian KIA numbers must be at least 30.000, regardless of the actual numbers, which could be far lower if they have been successful in keeping their losses to a minimum. That is one reason why Moscow may have no interest in publishing a true estimate of Ukrainian losses if they are much higher than the 100.000 KIA generally accepted. Also, I guess Moscow sees no political purpose or benefit in showing Ukrainians the staggering number of their people they have killed, that won't do any good to anyone.

Posted by: gatobart | Dec 2 2022 19:18 utc | 98

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 2 2022 15:49 utc | 14
«Kuzyk's report makes me think there will be a lot of trench foot affecting soldiers there, specially on Ukrainian side, since they can't rotate as much as on the Russian side. This has been a major issue for sodliers in that part of Europe, from Napoleon's invasion to both world wars.»

I read a story that the commanding general of the australian corps in WW1 in France organized a special service to collect daily *socks* from soldiers, wash and dry them, and return them quickly in rotation, to ensure that australian soldiers always had dry socks and warm feet. This improved enormously the morale and health of the troops.

That a commanding general would care about that might have seemed inconceivable to the noble or snob generals of England and France, arguing about strategy while dining on fine wines and venison in their headquarters manors, and to whom troops were just peasants represented by tokens on a map.

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 2 2022 19:19 utc | 99

«Those people like Zanon refuse to see the facts that are right in front of their eyes.»

But there are no facts before our eyes, all we know is hearsay and speculation and propaganda. The only things approximating "facts" are situations acknowledged by both sides, of which the main one is that a large chunk of land that Ukraine claims has been under RF military control for most of 2022 (and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea since its request to become a member of the RF in 2014).

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 2 2022 19:23 utc | 100

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