May all of you have a happy new year!

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

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What really hit me last year was the dearth of correct analyses in main stream media and in politics with regards to the war in Ukraine. Little if anything is based on facts. More than 90% of the published output is propaganda.

The 'western' plan was to draw Russia into Ukraine to then 'kill' it by economic sanctions. As Biden said when he announced those:

We have purposefully designed these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on Russia and to minimize the impact on the United States and our Allies. 

And I want to be clear: The United States is not doing this alone. For months, we’ve been building a coalition of partners representing well more than half of the global economy.

Twenty-seven members of the European Union, including France, Germany, Italy — as well as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and many others — to amplify the joint impact of our response.

I just spoke with the G7 leaders this morning, and we are in full and total agreement. We will limit Russia’s ability to do business in Dollars, Euros, Pounds, and Yen to be part of the global economy. We will limit their ability to do that. We are going to stunt the ability to finance and grow Rus- — the Russian military.

We’re going to impose major — and we’re going to impair their ability to compete in a high-tech 21st century economy.

We’ve already seen the impact of our actions on Russia’s currency, the Ruble, which early today hit its weakest level ever — ever in history. And the Russian stock market plunged today. The Russian government’s borrowing rate spiked by over 15 percent.

The assumptions behind these sanctions about the state of the Russian economy were completely wrong. Russia no longer had a low level economy. Yes, its GDP in dollar terms was much lower than those of most European states. But its GDP per capita measured at purchase power of the ruble was quite high. Russia's GDP also includes a much higher percentage of real production and a lower percentage of dubious 'services'. Its health care sector is 5.6% of its GDP. In the U.S. it is 16.7%, without creating a much better outcome. If one looks at Russia's production of steel, concrete and electricity per capita, things of real value, one can see that it is as much developed as other major middle income countries in Europe.

Cont. reading: Lack Of Good Analyses Contributes To The Decline Of The ‘West’

News & views not related to the war in Ukraine …

After having run out of missiles, the Russian military today fired another round of them at Ukrainian energy facilities.

Russia fires 120 missiles from air and sea – Ukraine – BBC

An air raid alert has been issued across Ukraine, as a fresh wave of Russian missiles targets major cities.

Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said more than 120 missiles had been launched at the population and civilian infrastructure.

54 of the 69 missiles were shot down.

Commander: Ukraine shoots down 54 out of 69 missiles fired by Russia – Kyiv Independent

According to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the chief commander of Ukraine's Armed Forces, the Air Force shot down 54 out of 69 missiles Russia had fired against Ukraine during its eighth mass strike targeting energy infrastructure on Dec. 29.

All missiles targeting Kiev were destroyed.

AFP News Agency @AFP – 10:10 UTC · Dec 29, 2022

#UPDATE Kyiv authorities said Thursday that air defences downed all 16 missiles that targeted the Ukrainian capital as part of a new wave of Russian strikes on the pro-Western country.

Those which came through seriously damaged Kiev's energy facilities.

Energy Minister: Russia’s Dec. 29 mass strike causes damage to Ukraine’s power generation facilities, grid – Kyiv Independent

Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko reported on Dec. 29 that “some damage” was inflicted on Ukraine’s power generation facilities and energy grid during Russia’s mass strike despite the “excellent work” of the air defense.

The minister said that the energy situation is particularly “difficult” in Kyiv Oblast and the southern Odesa Oblast, as well as western Ukraine.
…
About 40% of Kyiv residents and 90% of Lviv residents in western Ukraine were cut off from electricity as of the morning, city mayors said.

Due to the attack some houses were damaged.

Arthur Morgan @ArthurM40330824 – 10:19 UTC · Dec 29, 2022

#Ukrainian air defense again hit civilian targets: now in Ivano-Frankivsk, a S-300 missile hit a residential building. There were no victims or injured.
Image

Since the mid of the year it has become clear that the war in Ukraine is one that is mainly fought by artillery.

Ukraine was clearly the underdog in that fight as the Russian forces fired eight times the amount of artillery munitions the Ukraine could make available. The U.S. and some European dependents stepped in. Some 120 M-777 guns and a myriad of modern track mounted artillery systems were given to the Ukrainian army. Hundred of tons of ammunition were moved in. The U.S. and some allies delivered HIMARS systems that could reach beyond the limits of gun artillery.

The Russian military reacted to it. It dispersed its depots and command centers thereby limiting the number of targets for HIMARS systems. It also intensified its use of electronic warfare which took down the drones the Ukrainian artillery used to find its targets:

The electronic suppression of Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles blunted one of Kyiv’s biggest advantages in the early months of the war. The Ukrainians counted on superior intelligence—largely provided by UAVs—to make their smaller artillery arsenal more precise than Russia’s own, larger arsenal of big guns and rocket-launchers.

But the Russians’ electronic warfare prevented those drones from navigating and communicating—and deprived the Ukrainians of the precision they were counting on. “The defeat of precision was critical to unit survival” for the Russians, analysts Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained in a study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.
…
“The average life-expectancy of a quadcopter remained around three flights,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote. “The average life-expectancy of a fixed-wing UAV was around six flights” and, “in aggregate, only around a third of UAV missions can be said to have been successful.”

Lacking real fighting capabilities the Ukrainian artillery switched towards easier fixed targets. In late November it again started to intensely bombard Donetsk city with artillery and missiles. As there are few military installations or even barracks within the city this clearly was a war against its civilian population.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – Counter Artillery War – Financial Disaster

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

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A Merry Christmas to everyone …

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

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(Busy with family visits …)

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

"Daring"?

Zelensky’s Weapons Wish List Goes Mostly Unfulfilled on Trip to Washington – New York Times – Dec 22, 2022

After his daring 10-hour dash to the nation’s capital on Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky left with nearly $2 billion in new arms and equipment — as well as a likely commitment from Congress for nearly $50 billion in additional aid next year.

What please is "daring" in taking an armored car ride from Kiev to Poland to jump onto a U.S. military plane for a non-stop flight to Washington DC?

Likewise "bold":

Zelensky’s role on the Washington stage is Ukrainian fighter – Washington Post – Dec 21, 2022

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s bold Wednesday visit to Washington is an epic piece of theater designed to motivate multiple audiences — in the United States, Europe, Russia and Ukraine itself. The message is simple: With its own bravery in battle and the world’s help, Ukraine will prevail.

Baloney.

Larry reminds us of a similar visit 65 years ago that looked great (vid) but had an unhappy ending:

By the time of the coup, there were 12,000 advisers in Vietnam, but those who knew Diem best feel that neither he nor Nhu would ever have invited or allowed 550,000 American soldiers to fight in their country, and to permit the devastation caused by air attacks, including bombing and defoliation. There is evidence that shortly before the coup took place—and for several months afterward—the first tentative efforts were initiated both by the Saigon Government and the National Liberation Front to come to some sort of accommodation.

The coup against Diem had of course been arranged by the U.S. government:

The Pentagon's, secret study of the Vietnam war discloses that President Kennedy knew and approved of plans for the military coup d'état that over threw President Ngo Dinh Diem in 1963.

“Our complicity in his overthrow heightened our responsibilities and our commitment” in Vietnam, the study finds.

Back in April, when Boris Johnson made it clear to Zelenski that the U.S. would not support any peace agreement with Russia, he may well have thought of Diem's fate. He decided to ditch the ongoing negotiations and to commit his country to the suicidal quest of beating the Russian army.

Accordingly Zelenski's "epic piece of theater" was "designed" to keep him alive and to fill his bank account plus those of the owners of the U.S. war industry.

Everything else be damned.

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

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(Busy with X-mas preps.)

News & views not related to the war in Ukraine …

With NATO expanding and increasing its bellicosity Russia needed to react. One move is the integration Belarus into its defense sphere. The other is an increase of its military force to cover new threats towards its northwest.

Belarus seems to be a small country when compared to Russia.

But its actually of pretty decent sized country, with roughly 500 kilometer (300 miles) diameter from border to border. It has well established heavy industries and some interesting commodities like potash. Its population of 9.5 million people is highly educated. For Russia it is an important buffer state and the supply route to its exclave around Kaliningrad.

In June of 2020 we saw the first signs of a U.S. engineered 'color revolution' in Belarus. At the beginning of August the protests took off. But just two weeks later the attempt to overthrow the long term leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, was ended. Russia had come to the rescue of the Belorussian government after it had agreed to finally implement the Union State:

Cont. reading: Russia Takes New Steps To Secures Its Western Border

When the Biden administration came into office it had promised to reenter into the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran. Under Trump the U.S. had left the deal and had reissued sanctions against Iran. Tehran followed up by increasing its enrichment capabilities and by accumulating more enriched Uranium.

It would have been easy for Biden to immediately eliminate the sanctions and to rejoin the deal. Iran would surely have followed up by returning to the enrichment levels the deal allows for.

But Biden bungled the issue. For months nothing happened. Then he send negotiators to Iran who demanded additional concessions by Iran while offering less sanction relief. Iran rejected that. It demanded that Biden guarantees that the U.S. would stick to the deal under future administrations. The negotiations were drawn out and made little progress.

The European Union, which is part of the JCPOA deal, finally wrote a compromise draft agreement which was submitted to the Iranian negotiators in Vienna. Iran made some small changes to the draft and send it back. The EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell publicly said that Iran's changes were "reasonable" and that he hoped for a quick U.S. agreement to the draft. But the Biden administration, which worried about the midterm elections, called the Iranian changes "not constructive" and rejected the draft agreement.

Meanwhile old accusation were re-raised over alleged finds of radioactive substances at two places that had never been part of Iran's civil nuclear  program. U.S. intelligence agrees that Iran never had a military nuclear program though it allegedly once studied how one could be set up. The IAEA demanded that Iran explains how the substances got there. Iran says it does not know. Further IAEA inspection demands were rejected and IAEA inspections of some elements of Iran's enrichment facilities were limited.

The Biden administration had thought that, under sanction pressure, Iran would eventually succumb to its demands. That was a rather stupid miscalculation. The revolutionary Iran is not a country that succumbs to pressure.

Iran is still ready for a deal but Biden has given up:

Biden in newly surfaced video: Iran nuclear deal is "dead"

Cont. reading: Death Of Nuclear Deal With Iran Adds To Biden’s Failures In U.S. Foreign Policy

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

In Alastair Crooke's latest piece he discusses the change of narrative that occurred due to The Economist's recent Ukrainian interviews:

The Economist leads with interviews with Zelensky, General Zaluzhny and Ukraine’s military field commander, General Syrsky. All three are interviewed – interviewed in The Economist, no less. Such a thing does not occur by happenstance. It is messaging intended to convey the Ruling Class’ new narrative to the ‘golden billion’ (who will all read and absorb it).

On the surface, it is possible to read The Economist piece as a plea for more money and many more weapons. But the underlying messaging is clear: “Anyone who underestimates Russia is heading for defeat”. The Russian force mobilisation was a success; there is no problem with Russian morale; and Russia is preparing a huge winter offensive that will start soon. Russia has huge reserve forces (of up to 1.2 million men); whereas Ukraine now has 200,000 who are militarily trained for conflict. The ‘writing is on the wall’, in other words. Ukraine cannot win.
…
Scott Ritter, in discussion with Judge Neapolitano, believes that The Economist interviews reveal the West pushing aside Zelensky – as Zaluzhny administers his large dose of reality (that will be shocking to many sherpa loyalists). The Economist interview emphasis thus was unmistakably on General Zaluzhny, with Zelensky pointedly de-emphasised – which Ritter suggests indicates that Washington wishes to ‘switch leadership horses’. Another ‘message’?

Just to be clear, General Zaluzhny once said he considers himself a disciple of Russian General Gerasimov, the Chief of General Staff. Zaluzhny reportedly is familiar with the latter’s writings. In brief, Zaluzhny is known in Moscow as a professional soldier (albeit one committed to the Ukrainian nationalist cause).

So, is the West preparing its narrative to cut from this unwinnable conflict –Ukraine – and to move on?

That might indeed by a possibility. Could the U.S. and NATO just limp out of the situation and leave it to Zaluzhny to negotiated his defeat with Russia?

Cont. reading: Ukraine – Is There Really A Change Of The Narrative?

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

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Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Dec 13 – Biden Opens Africa Summit With Sanctioning African Leaders
  Related:
  – Biden looks to reassure Africa it’s not all about China, Russia – Washington Post
  – Chinese, Russian influence 'destabilizing' Africa, warns US Defence Secy Austin – ANI
  – US-Africa summit has done well, but China will remain a key player – The New Times Rwanda

• Dec 13 – When False Claims Are News – Russia, India, Nukes
  Related:
  – Modi ignores West’s sanctions on Russia – Indian Punchline
  – Putin, Modi discuss situation in Ukraine, Russia-India ties – Anadolu
  – India taps oil, natural gas, coking coal in Russian Arctic region – Economic Times

• Dec 14 – U.S. To Send More Wunderwaffen To Ukraine
• Dec 15 – Ukraine – What Its Military Leadership Says
• Dec 17 – Ukraine SitRep – More Missiles, Attack Plans, Artillery Hits Morale
  Related:
  – News From the NATOstan-Imposed Meat Grinder – Pepe Escobar / SCF
  – The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the (Un)Changing Character of War – Paul Robinson / JMSS
  – US prolongs Russia-Ukraine conflict for three aims, aggravates nuclear war risk: experts at GT annual forum – Global Times

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-228

Yesterday:

Russia launched dozens of missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure on Friday morning, knocking out heating systems in towns and cities across the country as temperatures dropped well below freezing and prompting the national utility to impose sweeping emergency blackouts.

Russia had launched 76 missiles at critical infrastructure targets across Ukraine and air defenses managed to shoot down 60 of them, the top commander of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said in a statement.

There were 16 missiles which got through to hit their targets. The rest of the report mentioned several of the targeted areas. But those numbers added up to more than 16 missiles:

Ukraine’s energy minister, Herman Galushchenko, said that as many as nine power-generating facilities had been damaged, the Ukrinform news agency reported. He also said that corresponding stations and substations transmitting electricity had suffered damage.
…
In Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, 10 missiles had hit the city, damaging critical infrastructure, local official said.
…
Missiles also damaged infrastructure and hit a residential building in the central city of Kryvyi Rih, Mr. Zelensky’s hometown.

The attack was obviously bigger than Gen. Zaluzhnyi has claimed. Or the shot down count was wrong.

That must also have been obvious to the writers and editors of the quoted piece but is not mentioned in it.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported no precise numbers but claimed that decoys were intentionally part of the strike:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – More Missiles, Attack Plans, Artillery Hits Morale