Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 14, 2022

U.S.-Russian Intelligence Chiefs Discuss Ukraine

Earlier today the Russian news outlet Kommersant reported on U.S.-Russian negotiations in Turkey (machine translation):

As it became known to "Kommersant", today, November 14, negotiations between the Russian and American delegations are taking place in Ankara, the capital of Turkey. Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin flew to Ankara from the Russian side.

This meeting has not been publicly announced before. The source has so far declined to provide details of the talks.

Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that he could neither confirm nor deny the information about the talks in Ankara.

The last time the Russian and American delegations met in Geneva was on January 10 for talks on security guarantees. The lack of practical results of the January negotiation process is often seen as a diplomatic prerequisite for the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.

The U.S. counterpart of Sergei Naryshkin is CIA director Bill Burns.

The negotiations have long been requested by Russia:

In the last month, the volley of calls for negotiation from Putin has intensified. On September 30, Putin called on Kiev “to return back to the negotiating table.” On October 11, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said  Russia "was willing to engage with the United States or with Turkey on ways to end the war." Two days later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is “open to negotiations to achieve our objectives." On October 26, Putin sent a message to Zelensky through President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embalo of Guinea Bissau, saying that “He wishes and thinks that a direct dialogue should happen between your two countries.” On October 30, Lavrov said that Russia is “ready to listen to our Western colleagues if they make another request to organize a conversation" as long as Russia’s security needs were considered. And on November 1, Putin said that “necessary conditions” could arise that would be a catalyst to talks.

On the U.S. side only one voice had recently publicly urged to start negotiations:

Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. According to US officials, Milley “has made the case in internal meetings that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table.”

The top US general has made no secret of his stance. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley declared in a public speech this week.

At the end of last week the Wall Street Journal reported that more members of the Biden administration agreed with that position:

As Ukraine Retakes Kherson, U.S. Looks to Diplomacy Before Winter Slows Momentum
American arms are flowing, but officials in Washington question how much territory either side can win Ukrainian cities including Kyiv have turned off streetlights to conserve energy after Russian attacks on power plants.

Senior U.S. officials have begun nudging Kyiv to start thinking about peace talks in the event winter stalls its momentum, following Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson in one of its most stunning triumphs of the war.

The imminent onset of winter—coupled with fears of inflation spurred by mounting energy and food prices, the billions of dollars of weaponry already pumped into Ukraine, and the tens of thousands of casualties on both sides—has prompted talk in Washington of a potential inflection point in the war, now in its ninth month.

Fact is that the 'west' is running short of ammunition it can deliver to Ukraine. That is why the U.S. is buying 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition from South Korea:

“Negotiations are ongoing between the US and Korean companies to export ammunition, in order to make up for the shortage of 155mm ammunition inventories in the US,” the ministry said. The Pentagon said in a statement it has been “in discussion” about “potential sales” of ammunition by the US from South Korea.

But statements from South Korea and the US make clear that the deal, which has been in the works for months, has not yet been finalized. The purchase of such a large supply of artillery ammunition is highly sensitive for South Korea, especially given the recent missile launches and weapon tests conducted by North Korea.

To call 100,000 artillery rounds a 'large supply' is a joke. It is less than what the Russian army expenses in two days.

The 'west' currently no longer has the industrial capacity to make the products that are needed in a long high intensity war. It could rebuild that capacity but that would require a huge amount of money and long term commitments to buy significant amounts of such products.

Without a steady resupply of huge amounts of ammunition the Ukrainian army is done.

The Biden administration has now confirmed that CIA head Burns has met with Naryshkin. But it is lying about the content of the talks:

William J. Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, met with his Russian counterpart in Turkey on Monday to warn Russia against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a White House spokesman said.

The National Security Council said Mr. Burns’s meeting in Ankara was not in any way meant to negotiate or to discuss any settlement of the war in Ukraine. Ukraine was briefed in advance on the trip, the spokesman said.

President Biden has insisted that Ukraine, and not the United States, will dictate if and when negotiations commence to end the war.

Russia has not threatened to use nuclear weapons. There is no reason for it to do so and many good reason to refrain from using them. It would foremost alienate China and other Russian allies.  It was in fact the U.S. which planted nuclear scare stories in another of its attempts to smear Russia. The U.S. of course knows that there is no danger that Russia would use nukes and it is likely that Burns did not even mention them.

There are enough other problems. The electricity situation in Ukraine is getting worse as the weather gets colder. Some 40% to 50% of the 330 kilovolt network is down and more of it will fail.

What the U.S. needs is more time for Ukraine to repair damage and for the production and delivery of more weapons and ammunition. It needs a pause in the war. It may well hope for a kind of ceasefire during the winter. It is highly likely that Burns went to Ankara to talk about that.

Sure, the Biden administration has no interest in ending the war. It is setting up a headquarter in Germany where a three star general and his headquarter staff will direct the U.S. efforts in its, for now, proxy war against Russia. The claim is that the new command will be responsible for supplying Ukraine. That is unlikely to be true:

The Pentagon puts a 3 Stars General in Charge of War Operations — not Inventory. And you do not need a Headquarters Staff of 300 to do an Audit. It’s a War Headquarters Staff. We are going to war against Russia unless the American People can figure out some way to stop it!

The headquarter means that the U.S. is planing for a very long and bigger war.

NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has said that a Russian victory in the conflict in Ukraine would be a defeat for NATO and that it can not allow such an outcome.

If you can not allow something to happen that is already mostly assured you will have to do something very serious to prevent that outcome. NATO is not united enough to go to war. But the chances for a direct conflict are growing by the day. It will be left to U.S. and some east European countries to send their own troops into Ukraine.

The U.S. public is not yet ready for such a step and it will take more time to get to that point.

It is another reason why the U.S. would like to pause the war for now. But Russia is unlikely to fall for such a scam. A ceasefire would allow the Ukrainian military to regain some strength and to build up more defensive lines.

After its mobilization of reservists in September Russia will soon have the forces available that are necessary to breach the Ukrainian front lines to then storm through and attack deep behind those lines. As soon as the ground freezes it will be ready to go. Any pause now would make a later move more difficult.

There will be no ceasefire now but the talks are good anyway. Both sides should do there best to keep them going.

Russia has asked for a lot: a pullback of NATO to its 1997 position, four parts of Ukraine to become parts of Russia, a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. The U.S. is certainly not willing to commit to those steps - at least not yet.

It will need time and many more talks for the U.S. to come to its senses and to make the necessary concessions to end the conflict.

It will also require the defeat of the Ukrainian military, and anyone who joins it, on the battle field. Russia can do that if it concentrates on that  effort.

Posted by b on November 14, 2022 at 15:48 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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I get the feeling we are stepping back from the nuclear abyss. Let's hope for a deal.

Posted by: Biochar | Nov 14 2022 15:57 utc | 1

Fact is that the 'west' is running short of ammunition it can deliver to Ukraine. That is why the U.S. is buying 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition from South Korea:

No, Fact is (as CNN link pointed out) that South Korea cannot deliver weapons to Ukraine thus US buy the ammo. from South Korea to give to Ukraine.

NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has said that a Russian victory in the conflict in Ukraine would be a defeat for NATO and that it can not allow such an outcome.

If you can not allow something to happen that is already mostly assured you will have to do something very serious to prevent that outcome


How is it mostly assured that Russia is going to...win? They have been defeated on every corner of Ukraine. After Kherson defeat, of course Nato going to urge for a military defeat. Why should Ukraine stop now? Russia have only themselves to blame for this stupid development.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 16:00 utc | 2

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 16:00 utc | 2

South Korea won't be needing 155mm ammo itself...........it displeasures China and Russia and North Korea.........and it might not survive.

South Korea is getting to be quite an arms supplier to Europe - Poland must have a big credit line. Not sure how shipment will complete if things go out of kilter

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 14 2022 16:04 utc | 3

They have been defeated on every corner of Ukraine. After Kherson defeat, of course Nato going to urge for a military defeat. Why should Ukraine stop now? Russia have only themselves to blame for this stupid development.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 16:00 utc | 2

Again, provably false. Exhibit 'A' - Mariupol, once the crown jewel of US command control of the 8-year Donbass conflict. I could go on, but you are a waste of time. The only significant defeats were withdrawals, where the UA/NATO army moved into abandoned towns and cities.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 14 2022 16:08 utc | 4

Proxy wars are great if you are willing to piss away your military supplies at an accelerated rate.

Proxy war:
Pros: fight an enemy with someone else's troops.
Cons: proxy force uses your equipment inefficiently.

I don't know what to make of this war anymore. The terms of any peace agreement will be very telling.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Nov 14 2022 16:10 utc | 5

Hopefully Crystia Freeland doesn't replace Stolnberg Quisling as head of NATO. Well, hopefully there is no NATO soon.
Hope, the one thing that didn't escape Pandora's box.

Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 14 2022 16:12 utc | 6

The war is not going to end, a pause has a chance, sooner or later Russia will be forced to actually fight.

Posted by: Athanasios | Nov 14 2022 16:18 utc | 7

normaly after such desaster the incompetent leadership has to resign........normaly.....
for me its a deja vu to the yugoslav theatre and milosevic
only difference that the 1000 times more underarmed serbian mini army performed much better untill slobo stabbed back serbian interests. he signed everything to save hiss ass but finished in hague.
putin follows the slobo path (

Posted by: ratkomladic | Nov 14 2022 16:18 utc | 8

Hopefully Crystia Freeland doesn't replace Stolnberg Quisling as head of NATO.

Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 14 2022 16:12 utc | 6

No, please take her and get her out of Canadian politics. Set her up in grandpa's old office in Krakow, Poland.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 14 2022 16:18 utc | 9

The sooner there is peace the better. A mass migration of freezing, starving and sick Ukrainians is the last thing Europe needs. Just checked the weather prognosis for the coming ten day period. Freezing temperatures are expected in Kiev and Lvov. The rolling black outs are increasing in length. The Russians knew what they were doing as without necessary repairs the grid will collapse. The 600 diesel generators sent by the European Union are a piss in the Mississippi as far keeping the cities functioning. Moscow knows this and NATO does as well. Time for negotiations or surrender.

Posted by: Okille | Nov 14 2022 16:20 utc | 10

This is a war of attrition so holding on to territory is not essential but conserving forces is of critical importance.
Ukraine could have converted Russia's retreat from Kherson into a major defeat by encircling the Russian forces before they left and destroying. That Ukraine couldn't tells us how weak they really are. The whole thing was really a nothingburger.
Russia must win and I suspect the Kremlin fully understands that. All the talk from Moscow on this subject is Maskirovka designed to persuade Washington that Ukraine is still capable of winning on it's own so that the US and the willing do not intervene directly in the conflict.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Nov 14 2022 16:20 utc | 11

Regardless of any talk of justification or even provocation on their part, Russia cannot even begin to claim that this war, er, sorry, special military operation has been anything but a bloody disaster; their only "accomplishments" to date being that they killed a lot of people and destroyed a lot of property before withdrawing from territory they had briefly occupied.

Nor is there any way they can justify their own losses in terms of anything "gained" by the Russian Army.

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Nov 14 2022 16:21 utc | 12

"The Kremlin does not discose the content of Russia-American talks" - Peskov
Abramovich won't let you talk?

"Mayor of Kherson: 40 to 50 thousand Kherson residents refused to be evacuated" - Russia24 TV
Nice little new army for Zely, all men will be mobilized.

Posted by: rk | Nov 14 2022 16:23 utc | 13

If Russian telegram channels portray an accurate picture, Russians are in an uncompromising mood. The war is not nearly as brutal as it needs to be and perhaps this sets the stage for the Blues Brothers skit.

"The use of excessive force has been approved".

Posted by: chunga | Nov 14 2022 16:23 utc | 14

There will be no ceasefire now but the talks are good anyway. Both sides should do there best to keep them going - b

Agree. Keep talking as facts on the ground change. Nothing will concentrate the minds of opposing negotiators like the effects of the coming winter's travails for Ukraine are likely to be.

It's known as turning the screws.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 14 2022 16:24 utc | 15

So, according to b, Putin has been begging through all channels for months for negotiations.

But the US, running out of ammo, knows the Ukrainian army is "done" if it doesn't sue for peace now.

Right.

If Russia doesn't turn this around the only person who is "done" is Putin.

The only way to succeed at getting sociopaths to leave you alone is to make them piss themselves in fear.

If you are scared of *their* escalation, then you are playing their game, thus you are losing.

Their escalation threats are usually bluffs. But they are great at making them seem like serious ones.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 14 2022 16:25 utc | 16

Maxim Zubarev, chief of administration in Akimovka, Zaporozhye region, South Russia, killed by Ukrainian saboteurs

So Zap. region is the next surrender?

Posted by: rk | Nov 14 2022 16:27 utc | 17

According to a CNN report, a National Security Counsel spokesman claimed that the discussions are "conveying a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and the risks of escalation to strategic stability" and "the cases of unjustly detained US citizens," while "not discussing settlement of the war in Ukraine".

Posted by: CalDre | Nov 14 2022 16:27 utc | 18

Opport Knocks@9
I second that motion!

From Doctorow today. I'm sure that b knows the words. We all know the tune

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIEEwgljX34

Posted by: bevin | Nov 14 2022 16:27 utc | 19

Thanks, b, for this and all your excellent articles, which help many of us to not only understand events, but to keep our sanity in these interesting times.

Thank you also for this comment board. You have allowed this section of your site to establish an organic life of its own. You must do some moderation, but you use a very light touch. That’s in stark contrast to sites such as Naked Capitalism or the Vineyard of the Saker, where the site owners obsessively argue with individual commenters, or just ban them, in an attempt to make the comments an exact duplicate (or very nearly so) of the owner’s point of view. And then those sites complain that the comment section is just too much work and periodically threaten to shut it down. Your site is a breath of fresh air on the contemporary scene. Thank you!

Posted by: Zed | Nov 14 2022 16:28 utc | 20

I’m not convinced. The Russians reckoned that the west is non-agreement-capable. There was that article recently reckoning that Zelensky was only to pretend to be interested in negotiations. Then there is that great Uki “victory” in Kherson so why would they stop now? And on the other side those 300k Russian recruits are only getting into place now. So why would the Russians stop now? It all looks like kabuki to me.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Nov 14 2022 16:31 utc | 21

So why would the Russians stop now? It all looks like kabuki to me.
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Nov 14 2022 16:31 utc | 21

The RF can talk and walk simultaneously. Unlike the "leader of the free world" in washington.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 14 2022 16:35 utc | 22

CalDre According to a CNN report, a National Security Counsel spokesman claimed that the discussions are "conveying a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and the risks of escalation to strategic stability" and "the cases of unjustly detained US citizens," while "not discussing settlement of the war in Ukraine".

As Caldre above clearly prove the discussions are of course not about any settlement but the nuclear aspect.
Of course US is not going to meet Russia in person and say, hey Putin yeah we agree for you annex these regions.
Some people here need to quit being in denial. Seriously. Last week the same crowd here claimed the Kherson withdrawal was "trap" for Ukraine and a "maskirovka" by Russia.

Now you claim Nato/US/EU running out of weapons and want diplomacy so bad... meanwhile Ukraine have success after succes on the battlefield (thus proving they have no interest in diplomacy)! Your conspiracy-theories makes no sense, all because you are in denial mode.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 16:35 utc | 23

Malchik Ralf | Nov 14 2022 16:21 utc | 12

Their only accomplishment, eh? You are either a low-rent propagandist or just a dimwit. Does it just make you feel good post that kind of drivel or do you hope to accomplish something? Just curious.

Posted by: NigelUK | Nov 14 2022 16:39 utc | 24

Oh, the twolls(sic) won't enjoy your post b. Not one little bit. :)

Estimate 100,000 155mm would last ~15 days at current average AFU daily fire rates, damn shame are not compatible with some of the Non-US 'donated' 155mm arty platforms. Hm, what about the other 8+ caliber direct/indirect fire tubes they have to supply via donations too, starting US 105mm up, surely all the AFU Gunners should get to share too ?

Without a steady resupply of huge amounts of ammunition the Ukrainian army is done.

And ... donated:

Uniforms,
Small Arms,
Crew served Weapons,
Cold Weather gear,
Obsolete Military transport APC from the '60's,
Refurbished derelict T-55s,
To be Re-manufactured obsolete AD systems from the 50's,
Worn out scrapyard ready Humvees & M117's (updated Vietnam V100-V150's),
NO Spare parts or trained service or technical support, including rims/tyres for a myriad of vehs, hvy wpns, platforms & materiel,
Resprayed civvy Pickup trucks, EU SUVs & basic civilian commuter vehs,
Medical supplies,
Small arms ammunition,
Mortar shells,
Limited supply of mishmash of foreign unsupported AD missile reload,
Comms gear, foreign mishmash, unsupported, from basic tactical thru to HQ Cmd Posts,
Helmets & body armor (mostly useless non-spec, fake, or obsolete),
POL, huge quantities,
Food & field rations,
Potable fresh water,
A shitload of trucks to provide annihilated logistics train,
Foreign bases ex-country to conduct abbreviated replacement basic training for Volksturm & Kamikaze newbie SF,
Ever more crazed suicidal foreign 'Soldiers of Fortune' as well as qty regular NATO troops on furlough(?)
And a Partridge in a pear Tree, et al.

Such winning, Empire, fer sure.


@ Zanon | Nov 14 2022 16:00 utc | 2

Please see Link.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 16:40 utc | 25

@ 9 Opportunity Knocks - Or better yet, the office of Dilo, the newspaper Michael Chomiak worked for in Lviv!

Dilo

Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 14 2022 16:41 utc | 26

The MoA article makes a lot of sense to me. It is consistent with my comments on the previous thread.

Contrarian Question: How is the US asking for 100,000 ammunition rounds from South Korea (allegation) different from other 'allegations' of Russia seeking drones from Iran (all but admitted as fact) and ammunition from North Korea, if the main premise of the article centres on the notion that it is only Nato who is running out of ammunition, and perhaps not in fact both parties, to at least some degree?

Furthermore, one party has recently lost significant amounts of territory too.. and it was neither Nato nor Ukraine.

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 14 2022 16:41 utc | 27

@Zanon #2

They have been defeated on every corner of Ukraine. After Kherson defeat

@Malchik Ralf #12

Russia cannot even begin to claim that this ... special military operation has been anything but a bloody disaster; their only "accomplishments" to date being that they killed a lot of people and destroyed a lot of property before withdrawing from territory they had briefly occupied.

So far Russia has gained about 20% of Ukraine, the most productive parts in many regards, and returned millions of Russians who were stranded in Ukraine after the collapse of teh USSR to their motherland.

In addition, they are successfully combating combined NATO, which aside from using Ukrainian troops as their proxy army, have launched a full political, informational and economic war against Russia. This is causing a major re-alignment away from the Empire, which re-alignment is accelerating.

The withdrawal from Kherson is militarily prudent. In light of developments over the law few months, including a massive Ukrainian buildup in the area, that lone position on the west side (left bank) of the Dnieper was not defensible. There was no defeat since they weren't forced out, they voluntarily withdrew, orderly and professionally. Much more so than the NATO "defeat" in Afghanistan, which didn't have a powerful military alliance funding, arming, training, and supporting them.

It's helpful to look at things objectively. Kherson will return to Russia, but in the meantime there are more important goals to complete: the liberation of all of Donbass. The withdrawal from Kherson and destruction of the Dnieper bridges leaves the river as a natural and effective defensive line, freeing up 30,000 Russian forces to actually engage in combat rather than being sitting ducks in Kherson.

Posted by: CalDreC | Nov 14 2022 16:42 utc | 28

Sometimes Alexander Mecouris gets my dander up, especially when he described RF withdraw from Kherson as a defeat. At least Alexander openly states he has no knowledge of Military Operational Art.

A tactical withdrawal or retreating defensive action is a type of military operation, generally meaning that retreating forces draw back while maintaining contact with the enemy. A withdrawal may be undertaken as part of a general retreat, to consolidate forces, to occupy ground that is more easily defended, force the enemy to overextend to secure a decisive victory, or to lead the enemy into an ambush. It is considered a relatively risky operation, requiring discipline to keep from turning into a disorganized rout or at the very least doing severe damage to the military's morale.

The Kharkov withdraw was to force the enemy to overextend and destroy the enemy formations.

The Kherson withdraw was to consolidate RF forces, occupy ground that is easily defendable and free up forces for future operations.

Putin and his generals need to take the Donbas, Bakhmut, and Zaporizhizhia this winter and end the war…🧐
V/r
Eddie Crivello

Posted by: Eddie Crivello | Nov 14 2022 16:42 utc | 29

Opinion of a retired German Colonel Ralph Thiele, chairman of the Politisch-Militärische Gesellschaft e.V. (Political military Society, a German non-profit association)

"The Ukrainians are currently "on a winning run" and want to "continue this, of course, but it will be difficult for them." That's because, "The Ukrainians are running out of young men, they already have to draft over 45-year-olds to fill the gaps in the troops." The Russians, on the other hand, are training 120,000 young men right now, he said.

Thiele does not believe in peace anytime soon, saying that after the success at Kherson, the Ukrainian side "will not sit down at the negotiating table (...) to talk about a ceasefire or even peace" because they want to continue their run of success. However, he said, one should "not overestimate" the Ukrainian successes.

"It will be safe to assume that [the Russians] will fortify their positions and warfare will shift back toward northeastern Ukraine," the expert explained. "The Russian side is preparing (...) to crush Ukrainian formations with a roller at some point. That is the intention. Ukraine is trying to disrupt and interrupt this intention of the Russians through smart, agile warfare with high mobility and precision."

Source: WEB.DE News


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20274

Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 16:43 utc | 30

A quick sampling:

Even the all American Temple of Cope can't put lipstick on the pig of American ammunition erectile dysfunction:

In the long term, this support can come from new production and the United States has already begun to make such arrangements. However, because these systems will not arrive for many years, they are useful in rebuilding a postwar Ukrainian military, not for fighting the current conflict. In the short-term, U.S. support needs to come from existing stocks that can be transferred quickly and have immediate effect on the battlefield.

Although some U.S. stocks are running low, alternatives―older, experimental, or nonstandard systems―are available, and these will constitute an increasingly large proportion of transfers. The United States might also acquire some stocks from third countries. The reliance on alternatives does not indicate a lack of commitment or a reduction in military capability. These systems can still be effective on the battlefield. However, they are an acknowledgment that the U.S. military was not structured to fight or support an extended conflict. That should, of itself, spark some debate in the national security establishment about budget priorities. In the meantime, the flow of weapons and munitions will continue, as will the war.

Mark F. Cancian is a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Is the United States Running out of Weapons to Send to Ukraine

(Yes, it's the CSIS but if we're quoting CNN why not go all the way, right?)

This bit says it all really:


older, experimental, or nonstandard systems―are available, and these will constitute an increasingly large proportion of transfers. The United States might also acquire some stocks from third countries.

Translation: US arms production capacity is FUBR!

VOA tries to "Both Sides" it with the following contorted b.s:


"In the war of attrition, the crucial underlying factor [for] who might win the long war is the ratio in military expenditure," Illarionov said.
"In military terms," Grasser said, "the two sides are evenly matched. The Ukrainians have fewer weapons than the Russians but they're now much more accurate."
But, he noted, "in its favor, Moscow has access to vital raw materials for the war effort."

"We're entering a period of unstable equilibrium. Whoever launches one counteroffensive too many is likely to lose the battle of attrition," Grasser concluded.

(https://www.voanews.com/a/both-sides-in-ukraine-war-face-ammunition-squeeze/6737693.html)

Mini-me is also running short(er):


Britain runs low on ammo as Ukraine bombards Kremlin forces
Arms industry yet to ramp up production despite Ukraine's need for weapons

(The telegraph.co.uk)

From Beaking Defense, a nice respectable US defense publication:


WASHINGTON — The Army’s top acquisition official said today he’s “not uncomfortable” with the state of Army munitions stockpiles in the wake of months of arms transfers to Ukraine, but said the Army is doggedly working with industry — including potentially offering multi-year procurement contracts — to boost the production of certain weapons systems to keep Kyiv armed and the US well stocked.
Doug Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, told reporters that he spends the bulk of his time working to expand US production of 155mm artillery, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) or Javelins that have so critical to Ukraine’s recent successes against Russia. Specifically, Bush said the Army was aiming to “dramatically increase” production of GMLRS and is “doubling or more than doubling” production rates for HIMARS launchers.

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/09/army-acquisition-chief-not-uncomfortable-with-us-stockpiles-considers-multi-year-deals/

... And the good old National Interest:


As a consequence, the United States faces a munitions crisis. The drawdown of U.S. munitions stocks has reached a critical point as demand for these bombs, shells, and missiles has risen dramatically. Unfortunately, decades of underfunding have resulted in a defense industrial base with little surge capacity. The Ukraine conflict has put what can be described as two Pink Flamingos in the spotlight. The first is the inadequacy of existing stocks of munitions, including both “dumb” bombs and artillery projectiles, as well as an array of guided and precision-targeted weapons. By late summer of 2022, the Pentagon had depleted its stocks of a number of critical munitions and could only promise to provide more of them to Ukraine in a matter of months or even years.

Pink Flamingo: The U.S. Military Will Pay for Its Munition Shortage

It's going to take a hell of a lot of lipstick to pretty up this pig!

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 16:44 utc | 31

The synopsis of Russia pushing for negotiations is inapposite to what most pro-Russian mouthpieces have been saying lately re Kherson retreat. Sobering.

Posted by: vice-rg | Nov 14 2022 16:48 utc | 32

❗️ Peskov confirmed to TASS that Russian-American talks were held in Ankara. According to him, the talks in Ankara were held at the initiative of the United States.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20269

Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 16:49 utc | 33

@CalDreC | Nov 14 2022 16:42 utc | 28

Good post. Keep it coming!

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 16:50 utc | 34

There is of course the inconvenient fact that not a single one those countries that joined the NATO after 1991 would want to leave it, even for all the vodka in Russia. And that is all that Russia could offer.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 14 2022 16:50 utc | 35

“If we see that Germany is winning we ought to help Russia and if Russia is winning we ought to help Germany, and that way let them kill as many as possible."

-President Harry Truman a few years before his presidency, 1941

After they had damaged each other to such a great extent during the war it made it easy for American business elites to create and control the entirely new economic system of the non-communist world

It is no different today. As you say it is most likely a stall tactic to allow them to ultimately finish what was started 80 years ago (to control the entire world)

Posted by: Kali El | Nov 14 2022 16:51 utc | 36

There are still not enough troops for a winter offensive that takes even the Russian-speaker/ethnic Russian majority lands. As much as I wish the fascists would be blown away, it doesn't look likely.

The retreats plus the eight years long track record of Russia allowing fascist war on Russians while preferring the oligarchs to the people of Ukraine, Russian-speaking or Ukrainian-speaking or other, suggest there cannot be any groundswell of support from liberated territories, who can't even be sure they won't be sacrificed.

Putin has no endgame.

Peace takes two, but war takes one. There is no indication the US is going to stop the hybrid war on Russia.

Sending emissaries suggests Putin wants to make a deal, which so far as I can tell means a rotten sellout.

The victory of fascism in Ukraine will energize fascist/cryptofasicst movements everywhere, Poland, the Baltics (including Finland, Sweden and Denmark) and in the US, especially in the statehouses. But France and Germany will likely see even more respect and affection for the far-right by their masters.

War clouds will thicken over Iran and Korea, I think.

The defeat of Russia will probably give a boost to the US financial system/dollar.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 14 2022 16:52 utc | 37

@Crivello #29

The Kharkov withdraw was to force the enemy to overextend and destroy the enemy formations

As per my post #28, I agree with you on Kherson withdrawal, but Kharkov was different. Russia has always been hampered by the fact that their invading force was much too small to accomplish the defeat of Ukrainian forces (the goal appears to have been to cause a capitulation to enable reaching all goals without major loss of life, but that goal obviously failed miserably). The area in Kharkov was only defended by a few thousand paramilitary forces (the fighting forces being further south in Donbass), who were unable to hold off the 40,000 or so attacking Ukrainian forces. Rather than face a military defeat and needless deaths of Russian militants, they withdrew. Won't be hard to reclaim that territory when the time is right.

The focus is on completing the "liberation" of Donbass. After that will be Kherson and Zaporozhye, as they are now part of the Russian Federation. And then ...

Posted by: CalDreC | Nov 14 2022 16:52 utc | 38

It was made official over 1 month ago that these talks only concern nuclear aspect nothing else:

"Biden adviser: US in private talks with Russia over nuclear weapons to avoid public ‘tit for tat’ "
"Sullivan on Sunday said the U.S. has been in contact with senior Russian officials “frequently” over the last few month"
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3660189-biden-adviser-us-in-private-talks-with-russia-over-nuclear-weapons-to-avoid-public-tit-for-tat/

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 16:52 utc | 39

@Eddie Crivello | Nov 14 2022 16:42 utc | 29

Sometimes Alexander Mecouris gets my dander up, especially when he described RF withdraw from Kherson as a defeat. At least Alexander openly states he has no knowledge of Military Operational Art.
Yes, he says he is no "military person" and he has been under the weather lately, so let us cut him some slack. 😬

I agree it is a tactical withdrawal.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 16:55 utc | 40

"But the chances for a direct conflict are growing by the day. It will be left to U.S. and some east European countries to send their own troops into Ukraine."

The chance of a direct conflict are virtually non-existent and have never been very high. There have been rough Rules of Engagement since the start. There is no appetite in the US for ground troops. They are not needed.

It's a comment about as accurate as most of the predictions from this author - who predicted this war would never happen. It is nonsense. Stupid. As stupid as saying the UAF was essentially disintegrating.
In March.

In the spring one side will launch an offensive. That failure (which is pretty predictable at this point) will lead to negotiations. This war will be over I suspect by next summer. But the rest of the world is moving on, and has seen regional conflicts be contained before.

Many of the nitwits here will be disappointed the war is contained. And will be disappointed by the results of the negotiations. But the rest of the world mostly does not care about this idiocy and is mainly concerned with it not enlarging.

Posted by: No War | Nov 14 2022 16:55 utc | 41

@ Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 16:44 utc | 31

Outstanding work for the uninformed & willfully false prophets. (See: Trolls, commonly found individually in dark, dank, confined, basement boiler room cubicles. Commonly aggregate periodically in online forums seeking non-enlightenment).

Now surely even our twoll infestation will be able to reference yummy crunchy FACTS !

After all they keep finding MOAs URL & posted links ... they'll likely work it out in time.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 16:58 utc | 42

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 16:58 utc | 42

our twoll infestation will be able to reference yummy crunchy FACTS !

But ... but, I thought the twolls ONLY deal in facts ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 17:04 utc | 43

@ Kali El | Nov 14 2022 16:51 utc | 36

Yup, the US 14-88th Cavalry(minimal effort) rides over the hill 11 months before imminent defeat of one or another belligerent, to 'SAVE the Day!' & steal the spoils. See: Boxer Rebellion, WWI, WWII & ... Iran-Iraq War '80-88.(See:Iran-Contra, Good 'ol boy, Col Ollie North)

Also see faux pseudo civil wars, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc ...

Love Freedom Fries & Dumbocracy, yum.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 17:10 utc | 44

That talks have apparently at least become possible is a good thing. Hopefully, positive development may come of it. One positive sign is that Mr. Zelensky at least publicly stated that Ukraine is ready for peace (that happened today). Hopefully, the cauciosly optimistic crowd will not be disappointed.

Posted by: Joshua | Nov 14 2022 17:10 utc | 45

Sending emissaries suggests Putin wants to make a deal, which so far as I can tell means a rotten sellout.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 14 2022 16:52 utc | 37

Such poverty of imagination. There are many reasons to send emissaries:

1) Find out what the opposition is really after.
2) Deliver your own messages, in private.
3) Encourage opponents concessions as their position deteriorates when facts on the ground change.
4) Make mutual arrangements to minimise loss of civilian life on both sides as military conflict continues.
5) Diplomatic optics.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 14 2022 17:13 utc | 46


"I’m not convinced. The Russians reckoned that the west is non-agreement-capable. There was that article recently reckoning that Zelensky was only to pretend to be interested in negotiations. ... So why would the Russians stop now? It all looks like kabuki to me."

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Nov 14 2022 16:31 utc | 21

The Russians, when the SMO began, were always calling upon the Ukrainian army opposition to lay down their arms. This is that.

Winter is not called 'General Winter' for nothing. Russia is the only country which can rebuild when infrastructure is broken. That's what 'build back better' means, which was an empty promise when Biden said it. There will have to be some truth telling on the part of Ukraine and the West. There will have to be strong admissions made, in public. That would seem to be the very least required of the defeated.

No more lies.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 14 2022 17:18 utc | 47

They are not ‘peace’ talks.

It is the ‘surrender terms’ being agreed by the CIA front man - he will relay that to his proxies and petty Caesars of the CW that he and his praetorians control.

There will be some face saving lies and ‘victories’ to be declared before pulling out first from the Ukraine and the other little bastards who have been jumping around like little one eyed minions. It will be the first stage of a final withdrawal of the US occupation troops in Europe since 1944.

Ukraine will not be the new Zion, Crimea will not be ceded and with it the control of the main North South, East West cross road of EURurAsia & Africa.

Free At Last.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 14 2022 17:20 utc | 48

There are many reasons to send emissaries

Russia has a professional diplomatic corps. It's the Empire "diplomats" who refuse to meet with anyone who doesn't obey their legion orders.

There are a lot of issues which make sense to discuss apart from the military war in Ukraine - arms control, sanctions relief for food and fertilizer (i.e. global food security), prisoner exchanges, etc.

Posted by: CalDre | Nov 14 2022 17:21 utc | 49

But ... but, I thought the twolls ONLY deal in facts ...

@ Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 17:04 utc | 43

And that they do too, Ollie. Recently discovered they're super secret squirrel stash of Empire approved & certified Twoll Facts(tm) online(~12.5m subscribers), an entire corner comic stores stock worth(Mostly visual, junior level text/language re average minimal literacy for maximum accessibility).

Vale 1st Guards Tank Army ... secretly annihilated 3 weeks ago by a lone UAF Volksturm Banderite Hero, armed with only a ... banana (Foreign, donated, naturally).

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 17:24 utc | 50

thanks b.... as you note - ...."the U.S. is planing for a very long and bigger war." the pr fluff of a negotiation is again more pr fluff for spilling the pr soup about russia not using nukes... this kind of soup-shit sells back home to western hicks.. wall st has got to spend more of other peoples money ( or helicopter money - ftx is busted ) to go after those pesky ruskies exporting novichok to all the wrong places.. groove - william parker quartet

@ CalDreC | Nov 14 2022 16:42 utc | 28

thanks... a voice of sanity is always welcome!

Posted by: james | Nov 14 2022 17:26 utc | 51

For the noisy Ukrainian peacocks serenading the moon*, no more than a retreat is a defeat, an advance into undefended territory is not a victory.


*There was once a peacock who was chatting with an American bull. They were both enjoying the glorious outdoors, when the peacock looked up to a nearby tree with a sigh.

“I wish I could get to the top of that tree to serenade the moon, but I don’t have the energy.”

The American bull paused before suggesting, “You should snack on my droppings. They are just loaded with crunchy goodness and other nutrients.”

The peacock was a bit put off, but the idea of crunchy goodness kept spinning around his cranium. Finally he gave the turds a peck. Not half-bad he thought, as he started to feast on the droppings. Much to his surprise, when he was done he had enough energy to reach the lowest branch of the tree.

Seeing how well it worked the first time, the next day, the peacock ate more dung and managed to reach the second branch. By the time the fourth day rolled around, the peacock had eaten all the bullshit on the farm but made it to the top of the tree where he began to serenade the moon.

Unfortunately for the proud peacock, a local farmer, Mr Mishka, was concerned by the cacophony and ran outside with his shotgun to defend his family from whatever horror was nigh. He spotted the peacock atop the tree and shot it. On an unrelated note, the farmer and his family had a lovely peacock casserole later that week.

There is no shortage of morals in this story.

The first moral is that bullshit may get you to the top, but it sure as hell won’t keep you there.


The second moral is that not even the Americans can produce an unlimited supply of bullshit.

The third moral is that when you are a birdbrain it is probably better to keep quiet, especially if your neighbor is a bear.

And the fourth moral is implied. People singing the praises of the Ukraine may make a cacophony, but only another birdbrain could appreciate it.


Posted by: Hermit | Nov 14 2022 17:28 utc | 52

"It will need time and many more talks for the U.S. to come to its senses and to make the necessary concessions to end the conflict."

"...come to its senses and to make the necessary concessions....." ?????????????????????

HA! HA! HA! Yes, the Russians are completely and repeatedly gullible when the US speaks nicely!
I have a great bridge to sell you! Cheap! Please call me - we can do it in Bitcoin thru FTX!

Posted by: James Cook | Nov 14 2022 17:29 utc | 53

No half measures. No deals. Not when all that is need is a final rout of the ukrozionazi forces. Russia must solve the ukrozionazi problem once and for all. Otherwise it will come back to haunt Russia and the world.

Posted by: Root up | Nov 14 2022 17:32 utc | 54

If the goal was to defend the Lugansk and Donesk breakaway regions from being destroyed by half million Ukrainian troops concentrated in the Donbas...who started their spring offensive a few days before Russian intervention with artillery fire on the DMZ....if the goal was to destroy the massive in depth defensive positions of this Ukrainian army in the Donbas...centered on Mariupol then if the goal was to destroy the Ukrainian army...I suggest all objectives are met. Russia has taken and annexed about 20% of Ukraine with several million new citizens but more importantly these areas are responsible for 90% of the GDP of Ukraine. The Crimea and the black sea fleet are secured with a land bridge and water supply guaranteed. This was all done with very minimal outlay in men and material. In front of Russian and Ukrainian militias are now predominantly NATO troops and mercenaries now attacking Russian lands ..the Special Military Operation or police action is about to become a outright war. NATO was always about keeping the Russians out...U.S in and Germany down....America will get her European war to try save her dollar....but Russia is not keen destroying her ethnic brethren in Ukraine and giving the U.S it's needed war so is understandably hesitant to do so.

Posted by: Joe | Nov 14 2022 17:33 utc | 55

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 14 2022 17:28 utc | 52

On an unrelated note, the farmer and his family had a lovely peacock casserole later that week.

Bullshit-seasoned peacock casserole, to be precise.

Ok. I'll see myself out ...


Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 17:35 utc | 56

CalDre

Russia have not secured any region for almost 9 months of this war. They even leave russians left behind when they constantly "strategically retreat" - that are now facing terror by ukrainian nazi forces, forces, they by by the way Russia let free themselves!

Russia releases 215 fighters, including Mariupol commanders, in a prisoner exchange.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/21/world/europe/russia-ukraine-mariupol-azov-prisoners.html

You cannot move in to Kherson with no clue, create a referendum and then move out some weeks later by claiming oh those ukrainians are massing on the border!.
What did Rssua expect to happen?
Again Russia keep retreating because they are constantly unprepared.

Besides Russia could, if they actually had used their weapons easily targeted these massing troops. Sometimes these ukrainian troops were in the mid open freely going into Kherson past weeks, months! But Russia did not dare target them and left before any fight had even occured. That speaks of being scared and unprepared to death even bombing the bridges leading to the...russian territory. Sigh.

In Video: Ukrainian Troops Preparing For Another Major Offensive In Kherson

https://southfront.org/in-video-ukrainian-troops-preparing-for-another-major-offensive-in-kherson/

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 17:36 utc | 57

@ DunGroanin | Nov 14 2022 17:20 utc | 48

Indeed.

An if Empire does not accept the 'supposedly' offered terms, which one assesses with 'High-Confidence'(barf) would be the case, the next set of terms on 'offer' down the road,will yet again be even worse.

RFs demonstrable practice under Putin.

Empire should have taken the 2021 offer ... alas, too late now.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 17:39 utc | 58

Turkey hosts the US-Russian talks, when a bomb explodes in a busy shopping street.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also shared a message on Twitter. “The U.S. strongly condemns the act of violence that took place today in Istanbul, Türkiye. Our thoughts are with those who were injured and our deepest condolences go to those who lost loved ones. We stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our NATO Ally Türkiye in countering terrorism,” she said.

Meanwhile, Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu blamed the United States, saying, “We do not accept the U.S. Embassy’s message of condolences. We reject it,” in televised comments. hurriyet

Obviously the US demands less respect than it did in the past century.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 14 2022 17:48 utc | 59

You cannot move in to Kherson with no clue, create a referendum and then move out some weeks later
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 17:36 utc | 57

The RF took around 80% of Kherson Oblast, and have (temporarily) withdrawn from around 5% of it.
I'm sure you'll be able to spin that as a win for the UAF in your own tiny mind, but the rest of us are aware of the actualite.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 14 2022 17:49 utc | 60

Saturday in Kiev will not be pleasant for people without heating

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/ukraine/kyiv/ext

From there on it will get worst.

Дед Мороз will be bringing freezing weather and nothing else. Lets see if they able to do what Russians did in Leningrad when the Germans were on their doorstep. Postage stamp celebrations I gather will not be on Narco Presidents list of events.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 14 2022 17:54 utc | 61

There is a huge concentration of UAF and foreign mercs in Zaporizhe. There might be some event occurring that could be one of the more decisive ones, to determine the war. And maybe who is actually sitting on which side of the table in Istanbul.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 17:56 utc | 62

CalDre @ 49

Russia has a professional diplomatic corps. It's the Empire "diplomats" who refuse to meet with anyone who doesn't obey their legion orders.

Yes, having the best diplomats in the world doesn't matter if the other side is intentionally undiplomatic. It's a feature not a bug, to leverage obnoxiousness over politeness, it guarantees only extremes where, supposedly, the empire has the advantage. In normal life it works a treat, most people dealing with assholes give up and get out of the way. In politics it gets you where we are today.

About 20ys ago neocons across USA and EU systematically trashed diplomacy purging the entire system of qualified people. The French who codified diplomacy closed down their diplomatic university faculty. If you're an ex-gynecologist or children's book writer you can now be a diplomat. If you are a bloviating ignorant thug you're a top candidate.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 14 2022 17:58 utc | 63

moaobserver | Nov 14 2022 16:25 utc | 16
James Cook | Nov 14 2022 17:29 utc | 53
-----

Your beloved NATZO-MATZO values in action in Ukraine: "Ukrainians tie ‘collaborators’ to poles in Kherson" https://www.rt.com/russia/566485-kherson-punishment-ap-photos/

Your beloved NATZO-MATZO values in action in the UK: 'Army families suing the Ministry of Defence over the squalor of their living quarters are being issued [by the UK government] with “bullying” ultimatums to drop the claims or face having their pay docked to cover the legal costs." https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/nov/13/army-families-suing-mod-for-poor-housing-told-to-drop-claims-or-have-pay-docked\

The collective west is owned by talmudic bankers.

Posted by: cerena | Nov 14 2022 17:58 utc | 64

Meanwhile in Turkey...
“We do not accept the US embassy’s message of condolences. We reject it,” Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said in televised comments.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/turkey-rejects-us-condolences-over-istanbul-attack-interior-minister/articleshow/95505670.cms
"Earlier in the day, Soylu criticized the US embassy’s condolences, saying that "it is like when the killer is among the first to come to the scene of the attack.""
https://tass.com/world/1536283

Posted by: leaf | Nov 14 2022 18:00 utc | 65

Any way you look at it, this is a complete disaster for US, NATO and EU. The quicker they can end it, the better for their citizens, not to mention the last remaining Ukrainians who haven't yet been sacrificed. But the criminal regimes in charge of all of these entities care nothing for people, but only for power and wealth, so the war cannot end until they have completely robbed and terrorized their own people.

Posted by: JT | Nov 14 2022 18:02 utc | 66

unimperator @ 62

There is a huge concentration of UAF and foreign mercs in Zaporizhe. There might be some event occurring that could be one of the more decisive ones, to determine the war. And maybe who is actually sitting on which side of the table in Istanbul.

The push to Melitopol for the win.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 14 2022 18:04 utc | 67

According to Russia, agreement had been reached on some major issues, other issues still had to be negotiated when Russia pulled back their forces from Kiev.
After the last meeting between the security council chiefs of US and Russia, Russia pulled its forces out of kherson city and the right bank of the Dnieper. Ukraine sources are calling the agreement reached between Sullivan and his counter part 'The Sullivan Formula'.
Now the intel chiefs of US and Russia are meeting in Ankara.

Russia strengthened its frontline forces by 80 thousand not long back. I assume that is the volunteers that enlisted some months back with the call for volunteers. By the time the ground freezes, the 300 thousand mobilised troops will be coming on line.
US wants to supply arms to Taiwan and has passed a bill to do so, yet is running short of ammunition to supply Ukraine.

US is running out of Ukrainians, running out of weapons and running out of ammo whereas Russia has only got stronger. US knows it has lost in Ukraine. Russia is in a very strong negotiating position so will be interesting to see what comes of it.
..........
And this...

@AZgeopolitics
·55m
UK,US and EU have eased sanctions against Russia in the field of agriculture and allowed banks, insurers, carriers and other companies to supply fertilizers from the Russian Federation to fight hunger in the world.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 14 2022 18:05 utc | 68

Gt Stroller

The RF took around 80% of Kherson Oblast, and have (temporarily) withdrawn from around 5% of it.
Yeah..that is my point, if Russia cant even keep 5% of the area of Kherson they sure as hell wont be able to keep the other 95% of it.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 18:12 utc | 69

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 17:56 utc | 62
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 14 2022 18:04 utc | 67

How much UAF AD is there between Zaporizhe and Melitopol? Could be a bit of an issue for them...

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 14 2022 18:14 utc | 70

Only time to talk is when the NATO backed army in the East is soundly defeated.

Period.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Nov 14 2022 18:15 utc | 71

Without agreeing to the Russian demands, I don't think Russia would agree to a pause in the operation for any stretch of time. It is clear that America is just trying to repeat its tactics of the Minsk (non)agreements fraud. There is nobody in the Kremlin that is daft enough to fall for that again. Look at the agreement to allow the shipment of the Russian grains, which the UN guaranteed, which continues to be ignored. So I don't think that the U.S. and its collective West lapdogs are going to get any substantial deal unless they change course.

Posted by: Steve | Nov 14 2022 18:19 utc | 72

🇨🇳🇺🇦❗China will vote against the Ukrainian draft resolution of the UN General Assembly on "reparations" to Kiev from Russia - Permanent Representative of China to the UN.

https://t.me/intelslava/41043

Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 18:21 utc | 73

Any student of history would likely conclude that the CIA did the deed in Turkey. It's a thing they do and have done since before they merged with Mossad and even before they were called the CIA. False flags are us.

The crap dispensed by La Pierre is traditional and nauseating.

Good to see the Turkman reject it with fervor.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Nov 14 2022 18:23 utc | 74

https://www.rt.com/russia/566485-kherson-punishment-ap-photos/
Lay the blame on Putin door! he is just desoerate to have a peace deal, but like Paul Grig just wrote Putin will discover another card of the Empire of Lies!
I feel really let down by Putin two shoes policy! How can he demand Russia reconnect to the SWITH payment system while Russia is at War? Honestly I never trust is strategy on this war! First refuse mobilisation to the army at the beginning of the campaign, even the wife of his spokesman was seen dancing in greece while some Russian were being slaughter ! The whole situation stink!

Posted by: Acia02 | Nov 14 2022 18:26 utc | 75

@74 - This might help confirm your suspicions.

Turkey's response

Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 14 2022 18:27 utc | 76

Posted by: Gt Stroller Nov. 14 @ 60

Thanks. The withdrawal was from Kherson City, capital of Kherson Oblast.

No worries. RF will engage talks knowing the US is not agreement capable.

RF is expected to cleanse Odessa. There is this old Russian mindset, "they'll take time to saddle their horses.. ensure the saddles are secured and then they ride fast."

USA does shock and awe. How about those promised material? Delivery will not be soon.

UKC: published November 11, 2022. with Video: Brian Berletic

US Send Decades-Old Arms to Kiev, Russia’s ‘De-militarization’ of Ukraine Continues

LINK HERE

Update on the military and battlefield situation in Ukraine.

▪️ Russia completes withdrawal from Kherson city to east bank of the Dnieper River;

▪️ Ukraine has lost its last major opportunity to corner and destroy/capture large numbers of Russian forces/equipment;

▪️ Russia continues stated process of de-militarizing Ukraine;

▪️ US aid to Ukraine becomes increasingly unrealistic – Hawk missiles designed in the 1960s and unused for 2 decades are being “refurbished” for a lack of better options;

▪️ “Avenger” systems to be sent in small numbers (4) which are essentially Stinger missiles attached to a Hummer – after training for Ukrainian operators is completed;

▪️ Dwindling amounts of basic ammunition continue to be sent to Ukraine, prolonging the conflict [.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Nov 14 2022 18:29 utc | 77

IMO, Ukraine isn't the main topic of discussions. Yes, Russia has always professed its readiness to listen and then talk with the other side, but having a discussion only signals the fact that one is taking place, not the content of those discussions. Syria might be the topic or fallout from Nord Stream. There also might be a very terse warning of consequences if Turk or Blue Stream pipes are attacked. The Empire's lack of nuclear fuel for its reactors and potential embargoing of hydrocarbon exports by Russian could also be topics. Essentially, IMO it's a mistake to assume Ukraine is the discussion's focal point.

Perhaps with Biden and most of what consists of his diplomatic corp away in Bali, another faction took the opportunity to meet and discuss the "weather."

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 14 2022 18:34 utc | 78

St. Petersburg, famously one of the world's most beautiful cities, appears at first sight not to have obviously changed since the war in Ukraine began eight months ago. On closer inspection, though, not everything is quite as it was. I should know; I have many friends and family there.

The malls, for example, seem empty with the mass departure of Western brands from Russia, and the cinemas now screen classic movies rather than the latest Hollywood blockbusters. Walking down the city's main thoroughfare, Nevsky Prospekt, the number of empty shop windows with "to rent" signs in them is noticeable, all of which contribute to an atmosphere of emptiness and uncertainty.

Nevertheless, life goes on, and the city still sees a significant number of tourists from other parts of Russia, even in the depths of the city's wet autumn. Petersburg's dining scene is somehow still booming, with new places opening every week, and theatres and concert halls play to full houses, though of course these days only those who haven’t spoken out against the war are allowed to perform.

Insulated by their wealth, Moscow and St. Petersburg will be the last places in Russia to feel the effects of the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, food prices have jumped by as much as 40% even here and even though the supermarket shelves are still full, many imported products are no longer available and the price of baby food and hygiene products – never cheap in the first place – have gone through the roof.

Pro-war propaganda can be seen all over the city, with posters bearing slogans such as "we don’t abandon our own" in the metro as well as in all government buildings. There are also billboards all over the city featuring photos of individual Russian soldiers and the slogan "Glory to the heroes!" All police cars now sport the pro-war "Z" symbol, and the stream of propaganda from state television is relentless ­– one of the reasons millions of people still support Putin and his invasion of Ukraine. For many, it's easier simply to believe what they're told on TV than attempting to learn the truth. However, many simply don't want to know what's really going on, as it's so devastating and they'd rather not face it.

It is sad that I have friends who no longer talk to their parents who truly believe that the Russian military is "saving" Ukraine from the Nazis and that NATO wants to destroy Russia. They see their children as traitors for not supporting the war. One of my friends was told "if you don’t support your own country, we don’t want to see you at our home anymore."

No one in Russia believed there could be a war, but now it’s crystal clear that the Russian government has been planning it for years. The lives of millions have been changed forever and my country is to blame. Many of my friends feel powerless, and – since mobilization was declared – scared as well.

About half my friends have now left Russia, are planning to leave Russia or are essentially in hiding because they understand that nobody is safe from the draft, even the old. For me, the real heroes are those who refuse to take up arms against their neighbors, those who believe that violence can never be justified under any circumstances, people who know the value of life and decide instead to fight the madness that drives the war machine.

I can’t imagine what the Ukrainian people are going through, I can’t imagine what Russian women whose husbands and sons are being mobilized are going through. I don’t want to stop feeling and become indifferent, I don’t want to just get used to it. But I also try to live my life here and now, because you never know what comes next. Life can change in a single moment – just as it did for so many people eight months ago.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 14 2022 18:38 utc | 79

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 18:12 utc | 69

There you go, I knew you'd be able to delude yourself one step further.

The RF even took nearly all their Kherson referendum voters with them to safety across the Dneipr.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 14 2022 18:39 utc | 80

After seeing "military expert" Andrei Martyanov one month ago saying that the russian mobilisation was about the taking of Odessa (which couldn't be further than the truth), i no longer trust so called "military experts", especially of the chest thumping type.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdZMYGMz89o

17:19

Posted by: Enough | Nov 14 2022 18:40 utc | 81

Russia still has no grounds for changing their previously stated position that the West is not capable of negotiating in good faith and honoring any agreement reached.
However its good for Russia to show willing being receptive to surrender offers from 404.
We can assume that however many civilians stayed in vacated Kherson city have no fear of reprisals for alleged collaboration from AFU and are largely people who dont wish to be future citizens of Russia so for Russia its good they are back behind 404 lines.
There are no longer massive benefits from destroying the dam upriver from Kherson for 404 which is a win for all civilians.
When the ground freezes if the lights are turned off in the whole northern half of 404 Russian forces can sweep down from the north to Odessa and Transnistra creating a closed cauldron of AFU forces east of Odessa to the Donbass borders no later than January - looks like a great plan!

Posted by: Gatt | Nov 14 2022 18:44 utc | 82

Biden's team, with orders from the Deep State (the top financiers and top corporate heads in the de-facto US/British/Zionist Empire--the "West"), did not want to appear weak prior to the negotiations, and they didn't want Congress any influence over the decision to enter negotiations. The Deep State is control of our government, not Congress. Russia has a deep distrust of the Empire based on their record on sticking to agreements, and they would be fools (and they are not) to seriously enter negotiations that would lead to a settlement of the war.

Posted by: ronh36 | Nov 14 2022 18:48 utc | 83

The mercs in Zaporizhi? Juicy targets for thermobaracs.

It's all speculative belief aka opinion, but I expect a huge smashing gloves off run up the middle come the freeze.

Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 14 2022 18:48 utc | 84

Gt Stroller

Why should they take them anywhere? With that argument they can take them to Russia proper. An argument Zelensky have used.
What safety by the way? You "deluding" yourself that Ukraine will suddenly halt their offensive march now?

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 14 2022 18:49 utc | 85

Clearly there never has been any discussion about the future of Europe between Russia and USUKIS. Nor is any discussion between them going to start now. Sometimes discussion only makes things worse. That's why people get divorced.

It would be much better for us kids if we had a straight choice between which parent we want to stay with, and stick with that choice. The next Berlin Wall needs to be built now and the US must understand that US lying put up the first wall, and US lying will rebuild that wall again.

What's the point of discussing nuclear suicide with Biden from Biden's grave?
Younger minds are needed to get rid of Biden's Cold-water mentality. Brexit was the first building block of the new cold war wall. USUKIS nihilism is not the only way to run a planet. But it is the only way the US understands.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 14 2022 18:50 utc | 86

@ LightYearsFromHome | Nov 14 2022 17:58 utc | 63

A 'Point of Order!'

Um, suggest the rot started post WWII concurrent with the recently established CIA testing it's 'oats' in the '50's under Ike's watch, with vinegar Joe McCarthy(& sidekick, RFK)(See:McCarthyism, consequences & aftermath).

That led to the newly re-empowered & enabled House Un-American Activities Committees 'activities', after Joe drank himself to death in bitter ignominy(See: HUACC, Oppenheimer, "I plead the 1st", Blacklisting, Reds Reds everywhere even in my lingerie)

By the time the Neocons started up there was barely a detectable pulse left in the State Department or professional Diplomatic Corps. That train has long ago left the station. But HUACC lives on in Post 9/11 Enabling Acts ...

For the record, I am not now, nor have I ever been an Oil Trader.(See: George Galloway, Testimony before Orwellian Senate Committee(21st Century Neo-McCarthyism post 9/11 ?) re fabricated/falsified record, Iraq War '03)(Past Echoes of the MI6 fabricated Steele Dossier?)

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 18:52 utc | 87

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 14 2022 18:38 utc | 79

Quick question: are you really karlof1? Somehow, I doubt it.

Posted by: expat | Nov 14 2022 18:52 utc | 88

@karlof1 | Nov 14 2022 18:34 utc | 78

I think you're on point.

I also think that b's assumption that it's the Russian side which mostly want a negotiation is probably overstated. Despite the fact that the Kremlin has been consistent in proclaiming its readiness for a negotiation. over the situation in Ukraine, I think it is the West which really needs and wants a negotiation at this point.

Posted by: Steve | Nov 14 2022 18:57 utc | 89

The announced topics of discussion for Naryshkin-Burns are detained American nationals held by RF and nuclear security. What will be discussed is never entirely known in advance.

Given that Brandon has nothing to do with policy and that us in the cheap seats have no idea who's on first in US policy making it just could be that Burns is an important player. Or not.

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 14 2022 18:57 utc | 90

That's not Karlof1. Not even close.

Posted by: AParadiseLost | Nov 14 2022 18:59 utc | 91

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 14 2022 18:50 utc | 86

funny though we have that choice but as always, when you move to mom no benefits from dad and when you move to dad the other way around so you dont want to decide... it is as it is :) (especially when you have 2 good parents)

Posted by: Macpott | Nov 14 2022 19:00 utc | 92

🇺🇳💰🇺🇦🇷🇺The UN General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on compensation for damage to Ukraine by a majority vote....The UN General Assembly resolution on compensation for "damage" to Kiev is legally null and void and goes in violation of the Charter of the organization, Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev

https://t.me/azmilitary11/28457

In favour-94
Against- 14
Abstention-74

Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 19:00 utc | 93

What's with this binary, black and white toddler level sense of logic being displayed on this forum??

"Russia retreated there for Russia is losing"

They put wheels and tracks on military vehicles for a reason you know. Moving out of reach of your opponent so you don't get smacked is a skill not a weakness ... ask any boxer.

"Russia said the USA was not agreement capable so they can't negotiate with them"

Of course they can make an agreement with the USA even if they don't expect the USA or Ukraine to keep the agreement. Some agreements benefit both sides so both sides honour them. The USA isn't sending Ukraine weapons that can strike deep into Russia and in return Russia isn't targeting NATO outside Ukraine.

I have no idea what the Russians and USA are talking about if they are indeed talking but you know they aren't going to result in an end to this conflict so it's likely something like sanctions relief for an operational pause or something like that which benefits both sides but it's no big deal for either side if someone breaks the deal.

Posted by: Dave_k | Nov 14 2022 19:01 utc | 94

@88 & 91 Lifted from Moscow Times..

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/14/eight-months-of-war-a-view-from-russias-second-city-a79371

Posted by: dh | Nov 14 2022 19:02 utc | 95

A lovely crisp article pulling it all together. Thanks again, "b" and thanks for your regulars too, who provide so much information and such useful links.

I sometimes wonder why I bother though, and with the other sites that fill in so much. From February it was obvious that Russia would achieve its objectives - unless we all get fried. Equally obvious that Europe had, if not committed felo de se, at least condemned itself to becoming a backwater. Why bother with the details, since there's nothing one can do to alter things?

Of course one bothers. This is a turning point in history and we're living it. Yes, tending exclusively to one's own affairs makes more practical sense, but who can tear himself away from watching it all play out?

After all, one reads, fascinated, about other turning points in the past. History is ever fascinating, and even more so when one is living it.

A lot of discussion I note about "trolls". Fact is, if one hasn't been following events in the Donbass and elsewhere in the old Ukraine since at least 2014, and if one knows little about Minsk 2, then it's perfectly respectable to hold to views contrary to those held by most here.

If you don't know what went before then all you see in February 2022 is a large and powerful country invading a smaller and weaker. Who would not find that wrong? In my own circle of friends both in England and in Germany I have none who do not believe Russia is in the wrong. "The West is in the right" is what all believe and when I assert "The West is in the wrong, and by the way will lose", that's regarded with astonishment.

So it's not an argument about principle, an argument that can never be resolved. It's an argument about facts. I believe that if the mass of the peoples of Europe knew the facts there'd be no argument.

So maybe not "trolls". Maybe merely those who don't know the facts.

I'm not sure they ever will. We're most of us now set in our view that Russia invaded for no good reason, and no chance of altering that view. Add to them the natural Russophobes, and there are very many of those in Europe, and that's a mass of people who will never alter their opinion of this conflict.

That's why Europe's going down, I believe. We are victims of a successful scam. The politicians have sold us a picture of this war that most of us will always hold to. And now those politicians have found out they should change course, "We the people" won't let them. The scam is now reality for most and we in Europe condemned to decline because if its success.

I don't know if it's the same in the States. There, not only is political debate less tame and conformist. I get the impression that, concerned mostly with internal politics as they are, few care that much about what's happening in faraway countries. So if the US politicians want to do a U-turn they'll have less trouble selling it to the electorate than in Europe.

All very well looking philosophically at the big picture, but behind it all there is a burning anger. I feel that myself and believe I sense it in most who write here. Who are these people, in their offices in Washington, Berlin, Paris, who cold-bloodedly urge tens of thousands of Ukrainians to their pointless slaughter? Who condone and I believe assist in the shelling of a nuclear power station with all the dangers that entails? Who condone, and some it is said assist, in atrocities we all thought had become past history eighty years ago?

And who know that the government they are supporting in Kiev, dominated as it is by vicious and determined fanatics, is bringing Ukraine to its ruin - and yet tell us that that government is virtuous.

Those are the people who will never be held to account, we know that. And as we examine the mechanics of this unfolding disaster, and gaze fascinated at this history we're living, there is underneath a deep unease and contempt. For ourselves. What sort of people are we, the peoples of the West? OK, few know the truth of this war but even so, what sort of people are we who have, even if unconsciously, generated as a ruling elite such twisted psychopaths as these?

So not so much a hobby, reading "b" and the many other analysts who puzzle out what's happening. Not so much an impersonal and comfortable examination of some fascinating living history. More a quest. A searching of ourselves to enquire how we can have become what we now are.

Posted by: English Outsider | Nov 14 2022 19:02 utc | 96

@ zanon 85

" delusion ". Some delusions are defense mechanisms from facing painful realities.
Others are psychotic, where there is no useful purpose for the delusion other than malice and manipulation.


Zelensky is not mad, like Biden and BoJo . He represents a polity called Zionist Fascism. Biden and BoJo, who started this war have nothing to gain either personally nor nationally by igniting ww3.
It is pure ignorance and malice.

The sane one, who represents zionist Facism , is the only half sane one on the Western side. Better a fuckwit than two complete arseholes.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 14 2022 19:06 utc | 97

@Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 19:00 utc | 94

That is an imposter. Not written by me. This site is under attack.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 19:09 utc | 98

Vladimir Putin has signed a decree allowing those with foreign citizenship to serve in the Russian Armed Forces.

There you have it, folks. Finally.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20294

Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 19:09 utc | 99

b wrote that:

Russia has asked for a lot: a pullback of NATO to its 1997 position, four parts of Ukraine to become parts of Russia, a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. The U.S. is certainly not willing to commit to those steps - at least not yet.

From West's perspective, that indeed seems to be a lot. But from the ethical perspective, that actually was asking for the reasonable.

It was the West that ate its own words of not expanding NATO an inch eastward, so it is NATO that should make amend by pulling back to where it stood in 1997. People in the four parts of old Ukraine were shelled, slaughtered, and terrorized since 2014. They voted to split from Ukraine as reasonable people would, and to join Russia. Most of the world (except the west, it seems) seems to agree with that decision. Ukraine joining NATO is akin to placing NATO nuclear armaments right next to Russia's neighborhood. No sane nation would accept that kind of status quo. Yup! Russians are asking for the reasonable!

I'm only surprised that Russia hadn't asked for punishments of the guilty parties--USA for instigating and directing Ukraine's war antics; NATO for playing the vassal role of supporting Ukraine's war efforts; EU for joining USA/UK in all those sanctioning business as well as terrorist acts of blowing gas pipelines, bridges, and reservoir dams. These terrorist acts have caused tremendous economic and human casualties. Such actions must be appropriately punished. I hope Russia will outline a proforma penalty list to address the losses Russians and Ukrainians have suffered since the start of SMO. It's only proper.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Nov 14 2022 19:11 utc | 100

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