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U.S.-Russian Intelligence Chiefs Discuss Ukraine
Earlier today the Russian news outlet Kommersant reported on U.S.-Russian negotiations in Turkey (machine translation):
As it became known to "Kommersant", today, November 14, negotiations between the Russian and American delegations are taking place in Ankara, the capital of Turkey. Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin flew to Ankara from the Russian side.
This meeting has not been publicly announced before. The source has so far declined to provide details of the talks.
Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that he could neither confirm nor deny the information about the talks in Ankara.
The last time the Russian and American delegations met in Geneva was on January 10 for talks on security guarantees. The lack of practical results of the January negotiation process is often seen as a diplomatic prerequisite for the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.
The U.S. counterpart of Sergei Naryshkin is CIA director Bill Burns.
The negotiations have long been requested by Russia:
In the last month, the volley of calls for negotiation from Putin has intensified. On September 30, Putin called on Kiev “to return back to the negotiating table.” On October 11, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia "was willing to engage with the United States or with Turkey on ways to end the war." Two days later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is “open to negotiations to achieve our objectives." On October 26, Putin sent a message to Zelensky through President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embalo of Guinea Bissau, saying that “He wishes and thinks that a direct dialogue should happen between your two countries.” On October 30, Lavrov said that Russia is “ready to listen to our Western colleagues if they make another request to organize a conversation" as long as Russia’s security needs were considered. And on November 1, Putin said that “necessary conditions” could arise that would be a catalyst to talks.
On the U.S. side only one voice had recently publicly urged to start negotiations:
Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. According to US officials, Milley “has made the case in internal meetings that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table.”
The top US general has made no secret of his stance. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley declared in a public speech this week.
At the end of last week the Wall Street Journal reported that more members of the Biden administration agreed with that position:
As Ukraine Retakes Kherson, U.S. Looks to Diplomacy Before Winter Slows Momentum
American arms are flowing, but officials in Washington question how much territory either side can win Ukrainian cities including Kyiv have turned off streetlights to conserve energy after Russian attacks on power plants.
Senior U.S. officials have begun nudging Kyiv to start thinking about peace talks in the event winter stalls its momentum, following Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson in one of its most stunning triumphs of the war.
The imminent onset of winter—coupled with fears of inflation spurred by mounting energy and food prices, the billions of dollars of weaponry already pumped into Ukraine, and the tens of thousands of casualties on both sides—has prompted talk in Washington of a potential inflection point in the war, now in its ninth month.
Fact is that the 'west' is running short of ammunition it can deliver to Ukraine. That is why the U.S. is buying 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition from South Korea:
“Negotiations are ongoing between the US and Korean companies to export ammunition, in order to make up for the shortage of 155mm ammunition inventories in the US,” the ministry said. The Pentagon said in a statement it has been “in discussion” about “potential sales” of ammunition by the US from South Korea.
But statements from South Korea and the US make clear that the deal, which has been in the works for months, has not yet been finalized. The purchase of such a large supply of artillery ammunition is highly sensitive for South Korea, especially given the recent missile launches and weapon tests conducted by North Korea.
To call 100,000 artillery rounds a 'large supply' is a joke. It is less than what the Russian army expenses in two days.
The 'west' currently no longer has the industrial capacity to make the products that are needed in a long high intensity war. It could rebuild that capacity but that would require a huge amount of money and long term commitments to buy significant amounts of such products.
Without a steady resupply of huge amounts of ammunition the Ukrainian army is done.
The Biden administration has now confirmed that CIA head Burns has met with Naryshkin. But it is lying about the content of the talks:
William J. Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, met with his Russian counterpart in Turkey on Monday to warn Russia against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a White House spokesman said.
The National Security Council said Mr. Burns’s meeting in Ankara was not in any way meant to negotiate or to discuss any settlement of the war in Ukraine. Ukraine was briefed in advance on the trip, the spokesman said.
President Biden has insisted that Ukraine, and not the United States, will dictate if and when negotiations commence to end the war.
Russia has not threatened to use nuclear weapons. There is no reason for it to do so and many good reason to refrain from using them. It would foremost alienate China and other Russian allies. It was in fact the U.S. which planted nuclear scare stories in another of its attempts to smear Russia. The U.S. of course knows that there is no danger that Russia would use nukes and it is likely that Burns did not even mention them.
There are enough other problems. The electricity situation in Ukraine is getting worse as the weather gets colder. Some 40% to 50% of the 330 kilovolt network is down and more of it will fail.
What the U.S. needs is more time for Ukraine to repair damage and for the production and delivery of more weapons and ammunition. It needs a pause in the war. It may well hope for a kind of ceasefire during the winter. It is highly likely that Burns went to Ankara to talk about that.
Sure, the Biden administration has no interest in ending the war. It is setting up a headquarter in Germany where a three star general and his headquarter staff will direct the U.S. efforts in its, for now, proxy war against Russia. The claim is that the new command will be responsible for supplying Ukraine. That is unlikely to be true:
The Pentagon puts a 3 Stars General in Charge of War Operations — not Inventory. And you do not need a Headquarters Staff of 300 to do an Audit. It’s a War Headquarters Staff. We are going to war against Russia unless the American People can figure out some way to stop it!
The headquarter means that the U.S. is planing for a very long and bigger war.
NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has said that a Russian victory in the conflict in Ukraine would be a defeat for NATO and that it can not allow such an outcome.
If you can not allow something to happen that is already mostly assured you will have to do something very serious to prevent that outcome. NATO is not united enough to go to war. But the chances for a direct conflict are growing by the day. It will be left to U.S. and some east European countries to send their own troops into Ukraine.
The U.S. public is not yet ready for such a step and it will take more time to get to that point.
It is another reason why the U.S. would like to pause the war for now. But Russia is unlikely to fall for such a scam. A ceasefire would allow the Ukrainian military to regain some strength and to build up more defensive lines.
After its mobilization of reservists in September Russia will soon have the forces available that are necessary to breach the Ukrainian front lines to then storm through and attack deep behind those lines. As soon as the ground freezes it will be ready to go. Any pause now would make a later move more difficult.
There will be no ceasefire now but the talks are good anyway. Both sides should do there best to keep them going.
Russia has asked for a lot: a pullback of NATO to its 1997 position, four parts of Ukraine to become parts of Russia, a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. The U.S. is certainly not willing to commit to those steps – at least not yet.
It will need time and many more talks for the U.S. to come to its senses and to make the necessary concessions to end the conflict.
It will also require the defeat of the Ukrainian military, and anyone who joins it, on the battle field. Russia can do that if it concentrates on that effort.
Oh, the twolls(sic) won’t enjoy your post b. Not one little bit. 🙂
Estimate 100,000 155mm would last ~15 days at current average AFU daily fire rates, damn shame are not compatible with some of the Non-US ‘donated’ 155mm arty platforms. Hm, what about the other 8+ caliber direct/indirect fire tubes they have to supply via donations too, starting US 105mm up, surely all the AFU Gunners should get to share too ?
Without a steady resupply of huge amounts of ammunition the Ukrainian army is done.
And … donated:
Uniforms,
Small Arms,
Crew served Weapons,
Cold Weather gear,
Obsolete Military transport APC from the ’60’s,
Refurbished derelict T-55s,
To be Re-manufactured obsolete AD systems from the 50’s,
Worn out scrapyard ready Humvees & M117’s (updated Vietnam V100-V150’s),
NO Spare parts or trained service or technical support, including rims/tyres for a myriad of vehs, hvy wpns, platforms & materiel,
Resprayed civvy Pickup trucks, EU SUVs & basic civilian commuter vehs,
Medical supplies,
Small arms ammunition,
Mortar shells,
Limited supply of mishmash of foreign unsupported AD missile reload,
Comms gear, foreign mishmash, unsupported, from basic tactical thru to HQ Cmd Posts,
Helmets & body armor (mostly useless non-spec, fake, or obsolete),
POL, huge quantities,
Food & field rations,
Potable fresh water,
A shitload of trucks to provide annihilated logistics train,
Foreign bases ex-country to conduct abbreviated replacement basic training for Volksturm & Kamikaze newbie SF,
Ever more crazed suicidal foreign ‘Soldiers of Fortune’ as well as qty regular NATO troops on furlough(?)
And a Partridge in a pear Tree, et al.
Such winning, Empire, fer sure.
@ Zanon | Nov 14 2022 16:00 utc | 2
Please see Link.
Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 16:40 utc | 25
A quick sampling:
Even the all American Temple of Cope can’t put lipstick on the pig of American ammunition erectile dysfunction:
In the long term, this support can come from new production and the United States has already begun to make such arrangements. However, because these systems will not arrive for many years, they are useful in rebuilding a postwar Ukrainian military, not for fighting the current conflict. In the short-term, U.S. support needs to come from existing stocks that can be transferred quickly and have immediate effect on the battlefield.
Although some U.S. stocks are running low, alternatives―older, experimental, or nonstandard systems―are available, and these will constitute an increasingly large proportion of transfers. The United States might also acquire some stocks from third countries. The reliance on alternatives does not indicate a lack of commitment or a reduction in military capability. These systems can still be effective on the battlefield. However, they are an acknowledgment that the U.S. military was not structured to fight or support an extended conflict. That should, of itself, spark some debate in the national security establishment about budget priorities. In the meantime, the flow of weapons and munitions will continue, as will the war.
Mark F. Cancian is a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
Is the United States Running out of Weapons to Send to Ukraine
(Yes, it’s the CSIS but if we’re quoting CNN why not go all the way, right?)
This bit says it all really:
older, experimental, or nonstandard systems―are available, and these will constitute an increasingly large proportion of transfers. The United States might also acquire some stocks from third countries.
Translation: US arms production capacity is FUBR!
VOA tries to “Both Sides” it with the following contorted b.s:
“In the war of attrition, the crucial underlying factor [for] who might win the long war is the ratio in military expenditure,” Illarionov said.
“In military terms,” Grasser said, “the two sides are evenly matched. The Ukrainians have fewer weapons than the Russians but they’re now much more accurate.”
But, he noted, “in its favor, Moscow has access to vital raw materials for the war effort.”
“We’re entering a period of unstable equilibrium. Whoever launches one counteroffensive too many is likely to lose the battle of attrition,” Grasser concluded.
(https://www.voanews.com/a/both-sides-in-ukraine-war-face-ammunition-squeeze/6737693.html)
Mini-me is also running short(er):
Britain runs low on ammo as Ukraine bombards Kremlin forces
Arms industry yet to ramp up production despite Ukraine’s need for weapons
(The telegraph.co.uk)
From Beaking Defense, a nice respectable US defense publication:
WASHINGTON — The Army’s top acquisition official said today he’s “not uncomfortable” with the state of Army munitions stockpiles in the wake of months of arms transfers to Ukraine, but said the Army is doggedly working with industry — including potentially offering multi-year procurement contracts — to boost the production of certain weapons systems to keep Kyiv armed and the US well stocked.
Doug Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, told reporters that he spends the bulk of his time working to expand US production of 155mm artillery, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) or Javelins that have so critical to Ukraine’s recent successes against Russia. Specifically, Bush said the Army was aiming to “dramatically increase” production of GMLRS and is “doubling or more than doubling” production rates for HIMARS launchers.
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/09/army-acquisition-chief-not-uncomfortable-with-us-stockpiles-considers-multi-year-deals/
… And the good old National Interest:
As a consequence, the United States faces a munitions crisis. The drawdown of U.S. munitions stocks has reached a critical point as demand for these bombs, shells, and missiles has risen dramatically. Unfortunately, decades of underfunding have resulted in a defense industrial base with little surge capacity. The Ukraine conflict has put what can be described as two Pink Flamingos in the spotlight. The first is the inadequacy of existing stocks of munitions, including both “dumb” bombs and artillery projectiles, as well as an array of guided and precision-targeted weapons. By late summer of 2022, the Pentagon had depleted its stocks of a number of critical munitions and could only promise to provide more of them to Ukraine in a matter of months or even years.
Pink Flamingo: The U.S. Military Will Pay for Its Munition Shortage
It’s going to take a hell of a lot of lipstick to pretty up this pig!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 16:44 utc | 31
A lovely crisp article pulling it all together. Thanks again, “b” and thanks for your regulars too, who provide so much information and such useful links.
I sometimes wonder why I bother though, and with the other sites that fill in so much. From February it was obvious that Russia would achieve its objectives – unless we all get fried. Equally obvious that Europe had, if not committed felo de se, at least condemned itself to becoming a backwater. Why bother with the details, since there’s nothing one can do to alter things?
Of course one bothers. This is a turning point in history and we’re living it. Yes, tending exclusively to one’s own affairs makes more practical sense, but who can tear himself away from watching it all play out?
After all, one reads, fascinated, about other turning points in the past. History is ever fascinating, and even more so when one is living it.
A lot of discussion I note about “trolls”. Fact is, if one hasn’t been following events in the Donbass and elsewhere in the old Ukraine since at least 2014, and if one knows little about Minsk 2, then it’s perfectly respectable to hold to views contrary to those held by most here.
If you don’t know what went before then all you see in February 2022 is a large and powerful country invading a smaller and weaker. Who would not find that wrong? In my own circle of friends both in England and in Germany I have none who do not believe Russia is in the wrong. “The West is in the right” is what all believe and when I assert “The West is in the wrong, and by the way will lose”, that’s regarded with astonishment.
So it’s not an argument about principle, an argument that can never be resolved. It’s an argument about facts. I believe that if the mass of the peoples of Europe knew the facts there’d be no argument.
So maybe not “trolls”. Maybe merely those who don’t know the facts.
I’m not sure they ever will. We’re most of us now set in our view that Russia invaded for no good reason, and no chance of altering that view. Add to them the natural Russophobes, and there are very many of those in Europe, and that’s a mass of people who will never alter their opinion of this conflict.
That’s why Europe’s going down, I believe. We are victims of a successful scam. The politicians have sold us a picture of this war that most of us will always hold to. And now those politicians have found out they should change course, “We the people” won’t let them. The scam is now reality for most and we in Europe condemned to decline because if its success.
I don’t know if it’s the same in the States. There, not only is political debate less tame and conformist. I get the impression that, concerned mostly with internal politics as they are, few care that much about what’s happening in faraway countries. So if the US politicians want to do a U-turn they’ll have less trouble selling it to the electorate than in Europe.
All very well looking philosophically at the big picture, but behind it all there is a burning anger. I feel that myself and believe I sense it in most who write here. Who are these people, in their offices in Washington, Berlin, Paris, who cold-bloodedly urge tens of thousands of Ukrainians to their pointless slaughter? Who condone and I believe assist in the shelling of a nuclear power station with all the dangers that entails? Who condone, and some it is said assist, in atrocities we all thought had become past history eighty years ago?
And who know that the government they are supporting in Kiev, dominated as it is by vicious and determined fanatics, is bringing Ukraine to its ruin – and yet tell us that that government is virtuous.
Those are the people who will never be held to account, we know that. And as we examine the mechanics of this unfolding disaster, and gaze fascinated at this history we’re living, there is underneath a deep unease and contempt. For ourselves. What sort of people are we, the peoples of the West? OK, few know the truth of this war but even so, what sort of people are we who have, even if unconsciously, generated as a ruling elite such twisted psychopaths as these?
So not so much a hobby, reading “b” and the many other analysts who puzzle out what’s happening. Not so much an impersonal and comfortable examination of some fascinating living history. More a quest. A searching of ourselves to enquire how we can have become what we now are.
Posted by: English Outsider | Nov 14 2022 19:02 utc | 96
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