Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 18, 2022

Ukraine - Switching The Lights Off

The careful destruction of energy systems in Ukraine continues.

From today's clobber list as provided by the Defense Ministry of Russia:

On 17 November, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a concentrated strike, using high-precision long-range air-, sea- and ground-based weapons, at the facilities of military control, defence industry, as well as related fuel and energy infrastructure of Ukraine.

The goals of the strike have been reached.

All the missiles have accurately stricken the assigned facilities.

I have no idea if the last line is true but it does not matter much.

The targeting of 330 kilovolt transformers in various switching stations has cut some 50% of the distribution capability of Ukraine's electricity network. These transformers weigh up to 200 tons. There are no replacements. You do not buy them at the next corner but will have to order them with years of lead time. As far as I can tell Russia is currently the only producer of transformers of that type.

Isn't it a war crime to destroy the infrastructure that supplies civilians?

It depends. If the infrastructure is used exclusively for civilian purpose the destruction is illegal. But the electricity and transport infrastructure in Ukraine is used for civilian AND military purposes. In a recent Politico piece Ukrainian officials are even confirming that:

Ukraine tells allies it may not be able to recover from more Russian attacks on energy systems:

An unreliable energy sector could have deadly consequences, Ukrainian officials say. In recent conversations, they’ve added that it could halt food production and transport operations — critical services needed to support military operations.

The clobber list also includes this curious item:

The strike has resulted in the neutralisation of the production capacities for nuclear weaponry.

I wonder where and what that has been:

One depot of artillery armament, delivered by western countries and prepared for being sent to troops, has been destroyed.

The redeployment of the reserve forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), and the delivery of foreign armament to operations areas have been frustrated.

The last sentence describes the real purpose of the attacks on the energy systems.

The lack of energy is degrading the railway network that brings weapons from the west to the eastern front. It makes redeployment of units from one front section to another very difficult and time consuming. It will give the Russian forces the advantage when they change the Schwerpunkt of their attacks from one corner of the frontline to another.

Another effect of the strikes on the electricity systems and the blackouts in the big cities that follow them is a renewed stream of refugees that will want reach western Europe. It will over time change the public opinion and the political priorities of those countries. If they fail to end the war they will have to carry the burden.

Posted by b on November 18, 2022 at 14:37 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Tom | Nov 18 2022 15:59 utc | 22

"Anyone else think the forced de-industrialization and de-population of Ukraine is the whole point of this war?"

---
A land without a people for people who want that land.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/5/zelenskyy-says-wants-ukraine-to-become-a-big-israel

Big question in my mind is whether Putin is active participant in the agenda, or dupe.

Posted by: ChasMark | Nov 18 2022 19:56 utc | 101

Big question in my mind is whether Putin is active participant in the agenda, or dupe.

Posted by: ChasMark | Nov 18 2022 19:56 utc | 101

You have a strange mind, Tom.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 18 2022 20:04 utc | 102

james | Nov 18 2022 19:13 utc | 89, re: karlof1, he might have decided to stop participating in this forum, as one post identifying him as author indicated some days ago - apparently because an earlier post from him had been scrubbed. I miss him too.

Posted by: htyul | Nov 18 2022 20:04 utc | 103

On the confiscation of RF assets, the amount of money being spent by the Axis powers is itself a hint that they might have baked in confiscation as a funding mechanism from the outset, like they had sanctions and cancellations ready to roll.

In unrelated news:

https://t.me/intelslava/41322

🇷🇺 The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that another regiment of the Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) in the Orenburg region is being equipped with the new Avangard complex.

Avangard is a new Russian strategic missile system with a hypersonic gliding winged warhead.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 18 2022 20:12 utc | 104

The war will continue, the West will try to create new fronts in Russia's hypogastrium. It will embroil the Albanians with the Serbs, create a war between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean to close the Bosphorus straits and of course the western states will directly fight Russia, all this will happen soon.

Posted by: Αθανάσιος | Nov 18 2022 20:20 utc | 105

Posted by: htyul | Nov 18 2022 20:04 utc | 103

Huh? Karlof1 was here yesterday or the day before that, he posted a link to the speech of Xi at APEC in the not-ukraine thread.

Posted by: Zet | Nov 18 2022 20:24 utc | 106

Zet | Nov 18 2022 20:24 utc | 106, thank you for clarification, some other legit barflies had pointed that the post I was referring to was from trolls and I missed his most recent entries. Glad he's still here and looking forward to read him again.

Posted by: htyul | Nov 18 2022 20:29 utc | 107

Re karlof1: here is the link

Posted by: Zet | Nov 18 2022 20:30 utc | 108

@ Neofeudalfuture | Nov 18 2022 15:32 utc | 13

Other than minor harassment & high profile terrorism 'publicity', there is zero relevant comparison re scale & effect in terms of the war theater nor the geopolitical strategic conflict.

Evidence ?

@ Petri Krohn | Nov 18 2022 15:34 utc | 15

Respectfully, re S300P ground attack secondary capability, integral to base system design since inception in '78(:). 'Tis true, a fact. Please see posts in 'Ukraine Open Thread 2022-201' as well as earlier threads.

@ Peter | Nov 18 2022 15:41 utc | 17

Tropes.

USSR & RF have been designing & manufacturing fully capable chips for many decades for their own needs, especially
military applications. Especially hardened, rugged & durable. Their hard STEM education system also means they write code for the processors applications re Mil useage in assembly, extremely efficient and ultimately highly reliable. A lost art in the west. No need for expensive gaming processors to get the 'Job' done. Nor layer upon layer of abstract spaghetti code modules at abstract layers, subcontracted to Indians & Asians for piece rates.

Designed and use for Military & national security/government purposes use their own in house custom Linux OS & apps. Demonstrably Not dumb orcs.

@ JackG | Nov 18 2022 15:56 utc | 21

See declassified record of debate by National Security Committee led by JFK who ultimately ordered/enabled the hit on Diem. JFK was never merely a one-dimensional trope shining knight in a mythologized Camelot.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 20:32 utc | 109

Tom @22 "Anyone else think the forced de-industrialization and de-population of Ukraine is the whole point of this war?"

Raising my hand over here. Me! I do! I think that Cargill, Bayer/Monsanto, ADM and others that have illegally bought Ukrainian farmland would like to have it depopulated to make it easier to keep.

Kill all the men, making it easier to exploit the women and the land. Yes, I think that is the whole point.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Nov 18 2022 20:32 utc | 110

@ Tbx | Nov 18 2022 19:08 utc | 87
Putin is to blame for a lot here.. . .Just as he never really sent a clear message to the Russian people regarding what the whole SMO is really about.
I blame Lavrov for not simply explaining the situation, over and over, to anyone that matters, foreign and domestic. Especially he has never taken on Blinken with his "Putin's unprovoked aggression" BS, which he repeats over and over and over again at home and abroad.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 18 2022 20:41 utc | 111

@ Αθανάσιος | Nov 18 2022 20:20 utc | 105

Ah yes. New wars between Serbs and Albanians and Greece with Türkiye.

While those sound rather probable emerging conflicts but I am not sure that US will want those to unravel.

Both would be much more serious than Ukrainian conflict.

NATO has a pretty big base in Kosovo, Serbia attacking that would probably be able to delete it, but it would widen the conflict rapidly.

The possible end of the NATO is a conflict between Greece and Türkiye.
But to be honest, I would advise Greece not to provoke or engage Turks.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 18 2022 20:43 utc | 112

@ wagelaborer | Nov 18 2022 20:32 utc | 110

Me too ;)

Same here. It is in fact now clear it was/is part of the original ultimate objectives of the 2014 coup then building up AFU over prior 8 years, prior to Feb28 execution(see: Feb24 RF pre-emptive strike, SMO)

General Plan Ost Mk2 (Rehash) Incase internal embedded post links are still screwy: Ukraine Open Thread 2022-196: Post 60 - Nov 12 2022 21:15 utc

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 20:48 utc | 113

@ Don Bacon | Nov 18 2022 20:41 utc | 111

from feb 15, 2022... i am sure a lot has been said by lavrov to blinken, but i don't imagine anything relevant will be shared either publicly, or via the western media...

here is a quote from feb 15, 2022

"Lavrov emphasized the inadmissibility of the aggressive rhetoric whipped up by Washington and its closest allies, calling for a pragmatic dialogue on the entire range of issues raised by Russia, with an emphasis on the principle of the indivisibility of security,” the ministry noted.

Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Lavrov and Blinken had a new telephone conversation."

to think he wouldn't address this again with blinken is highly unlikely, but we are all free to speculate.. and i do appreciate this ongoing western media spin from some of the posters here...

Lavrov, in a conversation with Blinken, declared the inadmissibility of the aggressive rhetoric of the United States


Posted by: james | Nov 18 2022 20:51 utc | 114

@Reno 6

I have just watched a live auction of wrecked cars in the USA, where Ukrainian based bidders outbid everyone by large margins on muscle cars and exotic cars. So some businesses in the Ukraine are still doing ridiculously well, despite relying on international shipping to deliver the cars there (so probably via Poland or the Baltic States).

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 18 2022 20:53 utc | 115

larry johnson from today

RUSSIA IS WINNING THE ECONOMIC WAR

Posted by: james | Nov 18 2022 20:56 utc | 116

Δημοσιεύτηκε από: whirlX | 18 Νοεμβρίου 2022 20:43 utc | 112

Do you know that Greece is challenging Turkey? Because in reality the opposite is the case.

Posted by: Αθανάσιος | Nov 18 2022 20:58 utc | 117

I blame Lavrov for not simply explaining the situation, over and over, to anyone that matters, foreign and domestic. Especially he has never taken on Blinken with his "Putin's unprovoked aggression" BS, which he repeats over and over and over again at home and abroad.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 18 2022 20:41 utc | 111

Notice how several people here replied to my comment and clearly didn't understand what I said either.

Putin did write that long essay on the unity of the three nations.

And he has been discussed the various issues revolving around nuclear deterrence a lot over the years.

So if you have been following the topic closely for the last 15-20 years, you know very well why there is a war now, and you have no doubts it is a just one and has to be won:

-- You can't allow nuclear missiles to be stationed within five minutes from Moscow, thus creating a first-strike advantage for NATO. And this is what things were headed towards.

-- You can't have Ukraine being torn off the Russian world and turned into a militantly anti-Russian entity. On its own and as a precedent. And certainly not in that location, the most strategically vulnerable for Russia piece of real estate.

-- You absolutely can't allow all of the above to be wrapped in Nazi ideology and symbolism.

-- The ultimate goal behind this is for the West to get its hands on Russia (and Ukraine's) natural resources, and reduce it to a Third-world resource appendage.

Yet not once since the war started has Putin tied it all together clearly and explained why all of this is happening, much less to the regular Ukrainian people, who are the most important group to reach with that message. Only the last point has been made somewhat clearly, and only very recently.

Because right now you have many millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainians (which means essentially Russians) who don't get it why their cities are getting bombed and are pissed at Moscow. Yet those are the very people you should be trying to get on your side.

Admittedly, early on that was in fact working in some cases - Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk were taken pretty much without a fight, as were a few of the smaller cities around Kharkov that were eventually abandonded during the Kharkov debalce. And there were a lot of collaborators even in the north - if there hadn't been, there would have been no Bucha.

But after the Ukrainians went full totalitarian, and after the retreats followed by massacres of the pro-Russian people, the Russians now have a growing problem on the ground within Ukraine. So clearly there is a dire need for clear communication of the strategic situation and objectives.

It isn't coming though. Even people in Russia itself are in the dark about the intentions, and are now in a position to second guess the true loyalties of their leadership. Most people here probably aren't following Russian media, but at the moment there are outright calls that Putin is a traitor in the most outspoken patriotic circles. It isn't reported in Western media, even though usually they would be quick to jump onto any signs on discord within Russia, because if those circles were to actually take over, then real hell would be unleashed. It would not be the meek pro-Western liberals who the West is dreaming about, it would be something much more difficult to deal with than Putin. So as a result of that lack of reporting even the pro-Russian people in the West are not aware of what is happening inside Russia, but that dissatisfaction is in fact growing.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 18 2022 20:58 utc | 118

He could have come out and addressed people in Ukraine, telling them "We sincerely apologize for what we are forced to do, but we are left with no choice. Please try to understand, and remember how many millions died in WW2 in the hands of the Nazis, we are trying to stop it this time before it gets to that".
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 18 2022 19:08 utc | 87

He has done exactly that a number of times - always referring to Ukraine as a brotherly or fraternal people, and the absolute tragedy of what is occurring to them.

As for this "Just as he never really sent a clear message to the Russian people regarding what the whole SMO is really about."

Liberate the Donbas, denazify and demilitarize Ukraine. Can't get much clearer than that and he stated that in his speech at the start of the SMO and has restated it since.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 20:59 utc | 119

i like this quote from larry johnsons article - goes with b's thread title here...

"One final observation. Europe is being kept in the dark in terms of honest information about the situation in Ukraine." so ukraine and europe are in the dark on a few different levels it seems.. shared position...

Posted by: james | Nov 18 2022 21:00 utc | 120

@ Αθανάσιος | Nov 18 2022 20:58 utc | 117

Well, Greece did some rearmament on the islands where they shouldn't.

Also Turkye war planes did some hurt on the Greek airspace, true that.

Mitsotakis and Erdogan seem not the best friends.
Erdo is apparently fond of the song "I can come suddenly one night".

That would be a real disaster, true.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 18 2022 21:07 utc | 121

The possible end of the NATO is a conflict between Greece and Türkiye.
But to be honest, I would advise Greece not to provoke or engage Turks.

@ whirlX | Nov 18 2022 20:43 utc | 112

Precisely. Empire has initiated construction of four new US bases in Greece and openly indicated the intention of relocating the B-61s to an equivalent to Türkiye/NATO Incirlkik(?) base to Greece. Given US - Türkiye interactions and incidents preceding & since US directed 2016 coup, not one but two blatant US terrorist attacks via CIA proxies over the last week ... re not pulling on the leash, and the censored in the west public statements, including previous years, of Interior Minister, the break is in train.

This indicates Empire intends to abandon/downgrade Türkiye staus within NATO/Empire and probably fund/support/instigate Greeks as a proxy to coerce/intimidate Türkiye. Foolish, high risk. Türkiye is no pushover, & Turks have never trusted US intentions.

Now fully expect Türkiye will flip, openly align with RF & China, exiting NATO in the most damaging way possible at the least convenient moment for Empire. That scenario is in play. Hence recent Empire extraordinary statements & actions overt & covert.

Greece is bellicose, yet also aware of ultimate possible consequences of going too far. Hence recent immediaate official Greek denials re terrorist attacks involvement.(See: Poland, NATO, US backdown bactrack re Missile/Tractor 'mystery')

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 21:13 utc | 122

Tom @22 "Anyone else think the forced de-industrialization and de-population of Ukraine is the whole point of this war?"

Evidently some people agree with you.
But nobody who has been following the events and understands what the struggle between eurasia and the maritime empire is about will agree. The causes of this SMO/war are quite clear and they have nothing to do with any design (by whom?) either to depopulate or de-industrialise Ukraine.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 18 2022 21:18 utc | 123

Opinion military expert :
This is not a mistake, but a deliberate provocation” – Kedmi on the S-300 attack on Poland

The principle of the Ukrainian missile attack on the territory of Poland was approximately the same as when Ukraine tried to arrange a provocation with the detonation of a “dirty bomb”.

This was announced by the former head of the Israeli intelligence agency Nativ, military expert Yakov Kedmi, on the Russia 1 TV channel.

How the incident began: Zelenskyy called on NATO to take immediate military action against the deliberate shelling of Poland with the Russian Kh-101 strategic missile. He continued to say so when told it was an S-300.”

The Ukrainian S-300 missile had intentionally disabled its self-destruct unit, which is activated whenever the S-300 is deployed against an air target. Against a ground target, the S-300's destruction radius is more than 100 km.

Most recently, Russia foiled an attempt to detonate a "dirty" nuclear bomb in Ukraine.

"And there was a plan - to take point U, place radioactive material there, blow it up and say - this is Iskander. The same scheme: you take the S-300, blow it up on the territory of [Poland] and say - this is the X-101. Because the radius of the S-300 from Russian positions does not reach Poland. That's why Zelensky still claims that this is not the right rocket," Kedmi said.

He stressed that all the facts point to it being a deliberate launch "to create the same provocation they wanted to create with the 'dirty bomb'.

“The missile itself cannot go west, the targets come from the east. It is unlikely that the target was in the west, they are almost on the Polish border, and the rocket just does not turn: it goes up, then it is aimed, but it is aimed at the target, and not vice versa Direction. And with the self-destruct devices turned off, they wanted to use it as a missile to hit a ground target.

And all those conversations that suddenly turned to, "That's a mistake!"

It's not a mistake. This is a deliberate provocation, ”concluded the military expert.

@politnavigator

Posted by: mo3 | Nov 18 2022 21:23 utc | 124

"Rybar's writing on the state of Ukrainian power is not encouraging, ie they still have it, and there's no danger of the system collapsing. Despite launching hundreds of missiles at the Ukrainian power grid, they are apparently only consistently losing power for a short time during peak hours. The strikes have not been hitting either the most critical or the most difficult-to-replace equipment. Damaging the power grid is likely to become difficult, as the Ukrainians are learning to cope now by fortifying vulnerable equipment with sandbags and other barriers, and new western AA equipment is arriving."

Posted by: catdog | Nov 18 2022 16:07 utc | 25

That's wrong and is in the vein of the super-patriot Russia sites that want some version of total war. Degradation of an electrical grid the way Russia is doing it is not a straight percentage. More importantly, what Russia is doing is effectively forcing Ukraine to shut down its own power grid rather causing a military, catastrophic collapse of the grid. By forcing Ukraine to shut down the grid slowly and keep some things limping along, Russia is making the grid repairable. This week Ukraine had to shut down at least 3 nuclear reactors because of grid problems. One can agree or disagree with Russia's strategy but it's a viable strategy. And sandbags aren't going to matter to to a missile with a 450kg warhead. The gerans are effective on the electrical infrastructure because it's fragile and easy to light on fire.

Posted by: Lex | Nov 18 2022 21:26 utc | 125

TBX

The relevant parts of Putin's speech Feb 24. I won't go through all Putin' speeches to find where he describes Ukraine as a fraternal nation and the tragedy of what is occurring but it has been reletively ofter throughout the SMO.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
The same is happening today. They did not leave us any other option for defending Russia and our people, other than the one we are forced to use today. In these circumstances, we have to take bold and immediate action. The people’s republics of Donbas have asked Russia for help.

In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.

The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.

It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force. At the same time, we have been hearing an increasing number of statements coming from the West that there is no need any more to abide by the documents setting forth the outcomes of World War II, as signed by the totalitarian Soviet regime. How can we respond to that?
..........
(speaking to Ukraine) I reiterate: we are acting to defend ourselves from the threats created for us and from a worse peril than what is happening now. I am asking you, however hard this may be, to understand this and to work together with us so as to turn this tragic page as soon as possible and to move forward together, without allowing anyone to interfere in our affairs and our relations but developing them independently, so as to create favourable conditions for overcoming all these problems and to strengthen us from within as a single whole, despite the existence of state borders. I believe in this, in our common future.
.......
Comrade officers,

Your fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers did not fight the Nazi occupiers and did not defend our common Motherland to allow today’s neo-Nazis to seize power in Ukraine. You swore the oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people and not to the junta, the people’s adversary which is plundering Ukraine and humiliating the Ukrainian people.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 21:29 utc | 126

Δημοσιεύτηκε από: whirlX | 18 Νοεμβρίου 2022 21:07 utc | 121

"Λοιπόν, η Ελλάδα έκανε κάποιους επανεξοπλισμούς στα νησιά όπου δεν έπρεπε."

You say the islands should not have been equipped, why? Is your country defenseless against its enemies?

Posted by: Αθανάσιος | Nov 18 2022 21:33 utc | 127

james | Nov 18 2022 21:00 utc | 120

In one of Douglas Macgregor's recent interviews, He said that he has A good number of German officer friends from his time in Germany. They recognize the likes of the pipeline bombing and the destruction of the German economy is and attack by the US on Germany, not simply collateral damage.

Macgregor believes Germany will soon go over to the Russia China axis. With both industry and the officer corp recognizing what is occurring that may well happen.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 21:39 utc | 128

When the lights are out can you still listen to the radio? Which brings me to -

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018867728/jordan-o-brien-kherson-on-the-moving-ukrainian-front-line

Which I post with the observation that the interviewer had a very organised set of questions..

Posted by: tucenz | Nov 18 2022 21:41 utc | 129

Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 21:39 utc | 129

"" Macgregor believes Germany will soon go over to the Russia China axis. ""

How soon do you figure? ... By January, by Spring ... ?

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 18 2022 21:45 utc | 130

@ Tbx | Nov 18 2022 20:58 utc | 118

Valid introductory remarks to frame the scene & reception, then abruptly segue into narrative/propaganda tropes ? :

Yet not once since the war started has Putin tied it all together clearly and explained why all of this is happening, much less to the regular Ukrainian people, who are the most important group to reach with that message. Only the last point has been made somewhat clearly, and only very recently.

Because right now you have many millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainians (which means essentially Russians) who don't get it why their cities are getting bombed and are pissed at Moscow. Yet those are the very people you should be trying to get on your side

...

It isn't coming though. Even people in Russia itself are in the dark about the intentions, and are now in a position to second guess the true loyalties of their leadership. Most people here probably aren't following Russian media, but at the moment there are outright calls that Putin is a traitor in the most outspoken patriotic circles.

Respectfully, these statements suggest one is assumptive of audience not having access to RF internal views/communications. Even merely Karlof1's professional product alone, inclusive of the laborious translations of Official statements, conferences, public events, 'town halls' along with Zhakarova's weekly lengthy press briefings put the lie to your latter assertions.

Unaware Ukraine is publicly concerned re the population mass access to RF Telegram channels after all other access to RF media, newspapers, Radio/TV/Web Access long Censored/Jammed & criminalized ? SBU visitors unannounced, pre-dawn in black vans ...

Unintentionally dissonant, or things that make you go, hmmm ?

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 21:45 utc | 131

reply to 26 and others

I recall fear being expressed at rebuilding a grid if a Carrington event occurred because of large transformers requiring possible years to replace.

I also wonder what help the US would be if these are 50hz instead of 60hz.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 18 2022 21:53 utc | 132

@ mo3 | Nov 18 2022 21:23 utc | 124

thanks.. who is the military expert? Kedmi Yakov? looks like it.. john helmer at dancing with bears did an article yesterday which raised this possibility in some of the polish politicians stance.. here is a longish quote -

"Duda was sharply and publicly corrected by the national party politician closest to the incident, Jaroslaw Pakula, the head of the Lublin City Council. “ ‘Of course, it’s a Ukrainian rocket. Of course, this is a provocation on the part of the Ukrainian authorities…The rocket could not be fired 100 km in the opposite direction by mistake.’ The aim of the provocation was to scare the EU and gain civil society support to send even more weapons to Ukraine, Pakula added. Instead of saying ‘fairy tales’ about the missile, the Polish president should tell Ukrainian Vladimir Zelensky that Warsaw ‘will no longer put up with this behaviour’ by Kiev.”

Pakula posted his commentary on his Facebook account. “I urge you to rethink Poland’s position [looking] at this war in case the red line is crossed again!” Pakula told Duda and the leadership of the Law and Justice Party (PiS) in Warsaw.

Zelensky told the Polish Government: “I have no doubt that this is not our missile. I believe that this was a Russian missile, based on our military reports.” In a full text of his remarks republished from Ukrainian into Polish by the state Polish Press Agency (PAP), Zelensky added: “It was not our rocket, not our missile strike…I am convinced that we should and will [take part in the Polish investigation]…I want us to be fair, and if it was the use of our air defense, then I want that evidence. First the investigation, access, and the data you [Polish government] have.”

The Polish news agency also reported the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council as claiming: “we are ready to provide our [Polish] partners with the evidence of the Russian footprint that we have. We also expect information from the partners, on the basis of which the final conclusion was drawn [by the Poles] that it is a Ukrainian air defense missile.”

Former Polish senator for the opposition party Civic Platform (PO), Robert Smoktunowicz, commented: “Not only have we not yet received an apology and expressions of regret from the president. Zelensky for the explosion and death of two Polish citizens. What is worse, the Ukrainian side denies its response."


@ Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 21:39 utc | 129

i don't know peter.. that will be a bit like the titanic changing course.. it won't be easy and the pain is going to have to go up considerably as i see it...

Posted by: james | Nov 18 2022 21:55 utc | 133

@ Outraged | Nov 18 2022 21:45 utc | 132

i find it revealing how tbx doesn't reply to comments directed at him, but instead preaches to the choir ( don bacon ) instead...

Posted by: james | Nov 18 2022 21:58 utc | 134

@ mo3 | Nov 18 2022 21:23 utc | 124

Thank you kindly. Excellent catch. Any accessible ref links perhaps ?

@ Όμηρος | Nov 18 2022 21:33 utc | 128

Θέλω να μυρίσω το τυρί και να κάνω σεξ με τις κατσίκες στο λιβάδι. Αλλά μόνο αν οι Τούρκοι αποσυρθούν από τα παράλια. Γιατί οι γλουτοί μου είναι πρησμένοι.

Translation:

I want to smell the cheese and have sex with the goats in the meadow. But only if the Turks withdraw from the coast. Because my buttocks are swollen.

Well, enough said, given you are in an english language forum and have demonstrated EAL literacy.

You are not on farcebook or posting twits here ...

Εσύ και το άλογο πάνω στο οποίο ήρθες ... or

Tu et equo vectus es in ...

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:02 utc | 135

@tudupka 27

If we were to see about 100 medium sized nuclear weapons deployed, we know to within the limits of scientific certainty that most life on Earth, definitely including humans, would be extinct. See my
response 91 to Marco at MOA
.

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 18 2022 22:05 utc | 136

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 18 2022 15:32 utc | 13

Ukraine can only target some random transformer in border towns and villages with its himars, which have no effect on overall logistics. Russia has destroyed 50 % of critical electricity infrastructure, and they are not stopping. That's a pretty big difference. To be honest, Himars for Ukraine is like V1 for Germany. Nice wunderwaffe, but when air defense is employed properly, pretty useless. The way himars was sometime make look better was to use other organic MLRS systems first and hope Russian air defense is shooting them down while himars get a free pass. It no longer works as so many organic MLRS launchers are destroyed and so few left, so Himars "effecteviness" has dropped.

SBU employed goons have tried to hit Russian nuclear power plants earlier and they managed to destroy a connection but Russia has the capacity to fix random hits pretty quick. Ukraine, EU, or Nato does not.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 18 2022 22:06 utc | 137

Zelensky's running to the cameras over the Russian tactical retreat from Kherson appears so short lived now. Such claimed (easy) victories are nothing compared to who wins the overall war in the end. Each time he acts (and I mean acts) like an excited boy because he does not realise that tomorrow it may come back in his face, as it has now. Also if your world is based on lying prolifically to yourself and the world every day, eventually you lose sense of reality.

After the Polish missile explosion designed to trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, Zelensky should realise that NATO and the US neocons are never going to really put boots openly and officially in Ukraine. Biden and Stoltenberg could not have run faster to stop anything like that happening. They revealed their playing cards accidentally.

Posted by: George | Nov 18 2022 22:07 utc | 138

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 21:39 utc | 129

Unsurprising, as Germany is facing the imminent consequences of being a US 'ally' (vassal). 2022+ full implementation of the averted post WWII 'Morganthau plan'.

US shock & awe on a vassal, along with rest of EU & UK & Finland & Japan as collateral damage. Less so Canada, AU & NZ.

Gone from intentional 'Collateral Murder' to 'Collateral Vassal Murder'.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:11 utc | 139

@TG 80

Without electric power to the railways, the trains will not move. Without the trains, diesel will not be available to run generators (or anything else). Without diesel, the war will end. Russia well remembers the lessons of WW II.

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 18 2022 22:23 utc | 140

@ Eighthman | Nov 18 2022 21:53 utc | 133

Studiable moment re Carrington event equivalent occurring in real-time. (See: Ukraine)

US is 50Hz, Soviet/RF hence Ukraine is 60Hz. But also the unique 'Mir' 750KW transmission networks let alone the rest

Zero US capabilities excepting irrelevant very small scale 60Hz hobbyist artisan pseudo cottage industries.

Many of the now recently destroyed transformers range from 100 to 400 tons. And that's just fer starters.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:24 utc | 141

Hermit | Nov 18 2022 22:05 utc | 137

Nope. When I see such things I know I'm dealing with an emotional, non-critical thinking child, not a serious adult. Simply the effects of 80 years of anti-nuclear propaganda. The human race does not have the capacity to "destroy the planet." It couldn't even destroy an asteroid. Do you know why Hiroshima still exists? Because nuclear weapons don't destroy land, rocks, etc. Even if the entire inventory of nuclear weapons were launched it wouldn't wipe out the human race. It'll be a mess to be sure. But some places would get along just fine. Most of the southern hemisphere for starters. You know, the Global South? You're a child.

Posted by: Kiko | Nov 18 2022 22:26 utc | 142

I'm old enough to remember the total indifference of US media to the US deliberately bombing the Baghdad water system. There is a limited sense in which potable water is a dual-use product, for civilian and military purposes. But it is nothing compared to the military usefulness of electricity. I remember the US bombing a TV station in Yugoslavia for its "military" use as propaganda. No one need take seriously the words of Zelensky or US government officials professing outrage. Patriots of course who firmly believe in supporting their government will of course feel differently.

On the issue of what Putin did or did not make clear with the term "SMO," Putin does not have access to Western media. I suspect but cannot know that no one in Russia takes very seriously Putin's alleged discovery there are Nazis in Ukraine, or that he has a problem with them, because eight years of him being fine with them counts for a lot.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 18 2022 22:26 utc | 143

@ steven t johnson | Nov 18 2022 22:26 utc | 144

very last part is bullshit steven.. he wasn't fine with them for 8 years, but he might have thought the west could come to its senses.. obviously they can't...

Posted by: james | Nov 18 2022 22:34 utc | 144

Peter AU1 @ 129 / Mummer @ 131

"" Macgregor believes Germany will soon go over to the Russia China axis. ""
How soon do you figure? ... By January, by Spring ... ?

MacGregor is sharp, but maybe youtube overexposure like with Ritter is making him talk for talking's sake. There are 40 US bases in Germany, so will Germany take them along into the Russia/China axis? EU is well bound to the USA by kompromat, Germany, Italy, Japan are locked up and chained to the wall where the USA put them in 1945. Turns out it was a life sentence.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 18 2022 22:37 utc | 145

Documentary about Sir Arthur "Bomber" Harris. I quote from memory "You bomb, wait until the fire brigade has arrived, and then you bomb again. Fires burn much better when the fire-fighters are dead" "Bombing proved a relatively humane method" . Sir Harris became baronet, with awards, medals and statue.

Calling Sir Harris a war hero is setting the bar pretty high to call Putin a war criminal.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 18 2022 22:39 utc | 146

@ Kiko | Nov 18 2022 22:26 utc | 143

Respectfully, suggest playing the ball(content) not the 'poster', care to address & refute the content please.

Kiko provided extensive references, which one confidentally believes is supported, given numerous informed debates over many years on this specific matter . You will need to offer same if you expect your comments to be taken credibly, yes/no ?

PSA - Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:40 utc | 147

@ Hermit 115

A similar trade in expensive cars was done between the Barzani mafia " government " of Kurdistan and Daesh. Highspec weapons from Germany were also sold to Daesh. For the US, war is a racket, but there again Samuel Pepys, Mark Thatcher, Blair , Cameron and BloJo all did the same. HS2 has converted farmland into industrial land on a scale not seen since the Enclosures of farm land.


I constantly tell my Kurdish friends that our system.of government is more corrupt than theirs, but who listens to an old Englishman? There is a thriving market for foreign corruption in perfidious Alibiland.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 18 2022 22:41 utc | 148

@Arch Bungle 51

Well written very accurate and badly needed response which saved me hours of writing to say that he same, but longer :-) Deep thanks.

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 18 2022 22:41 utc | 149

Mummer | Nov 18 2022 21:45 utc | 131

From memory, I think Macgregor was looking at as little as a year from now perhaps a bit longer.

james | Nov 18 2022 21:55 utc | 134
From what I read, the pain dial will be up in the very painful range for the last half of the coming winter. Huge amount of German companies now declaring bankruptcy. I guess without gas, the army of soon to be recently unemployed will be able to keep warm by vigorously protesting.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 22:42 utc | 150

LightYearsFromHome @ 146

MacGregor never said that. The Peter AU1 posting for the last few days is a troll, not the real poster.

Posted by: JeanAU | Nov 18 2022 22:43 utc | 151

Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:40 utc | 148

Name usurper, not me

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:48 utc | 152

Peter AU1 - 129
Any chance German officers might actually refuse to go to war against Russia, if it ever went that far?
Heck, actually, any chance German officers would actually do their duty and protect and save their country by overthrowing the bunch of traitorous scum "leading" the country?

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Nov 18 2022 22:53 utc | 153

@Steven Starr 43

Exceptionally informative response. As an addendum, it is unlikely that the US would recover at all, as a grid failure would result in a catastrophic failure cascades
(water, fuel, food, reticulation, building access, fire control, disease management, health management) and the deaths of some 95% of the population. In addition, the current systems developed organically, and no cold restart pathways have been planned or exist. See my

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 18 2022 22:55 utc | 154

@Steven Starr 43

Repost, hopefully with working link.

Exceptionally informative response. As an addendum, it is unlikely that the US would recover at all, as a grid failure would result in a catastrophic failure cascades
(water, fuel, food, reticulation, building access, fire control, disease management, health management) and the deaths of some 95% of the population. In addition, the current systems developed organically, and no cold restart pathways have been planned or exist. See my Why Civil Disturbance (and other catastrophes) might cause Civil Collapse and the Death of 95% of Americans.

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 18 2022 22:59 utc | 155

"...Are Washington and its European vassals perhaps beginning to realize that they have created a Frankenstein monster in Kiev whose criminality and corruption know no bounds?.."

It is a very good question. On a day when RT headlines the systematic massacre of Russian POWs by Kiev's new SS, it is becoming clear even to the blind that the Nazis in Ukraine are acting just like Nazis

https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/11/18/nato-frankenstein-monster-kiev-regime-exposed-in-criminal-false-flag-attack-on-poland/

Posted by: bevin | Nov 18 2022 23:01 utc | 156

@ Tbx 118

Most people in this imperfect world are
strongly conservative and want above all for the systems they understand and profit from to remain. Hence explaining anything new to them annoys them. Why can't things just carry on being the same?

USUKIS politicians absolutely understand conservatism, and therefore " move fast and break everything " is official Tory policy.
People will adapt to fait accompli, but they will rebel against having new ideas being explained to them.

The Nazism of Ukraine has not yet dawned on the citizens of USUKIS, because they have never been exposed to the sadism of the Azov cult. Even when an MP is stabbed to death in public or in a MP surgery, nobody takes any notice of Right wing extremism.

The problem is not Lavrov and Putin's communication skills, it is the total lethargy and laziness of human kind to bother with change,until it personally effects them.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 18 2022 23:02 utc | 157

Former Polish senator for the opposition party Civic Platform (PO), Robert Smoktunowicz, commented: “Not only have we not yet received an apology and expressions of regret from the president. Zelensky for the explosion and death of two Polish citizens. What is worse, the Ukrainian side denies its response."


@ Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 21:39 utc | 129

Sorry Poland, there is no hope of anyone doing that there. If they did they would be tied to a pole or at worst shot.
By the way, Did the 404 State apologize for Wolyn ?
I bet NOT.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 18 2022 23:05 utc | 158

Video posted on Hal Turner show website of UKR soldiers murdering unarmed and surrendered Russian soldiers while they are laying face down on ground. WARNING GRAPHIC...

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-troops-massacre-surrendering-dis-armed-russians-laying-face-down-on-ground

Posted by: Just Observing | Nov 18 2022 23:11 utc | 159

He could have come out and addressed people in Ukraine, telling them "We sincerely apologize for what we are forced to do, but we are left with no choice. Please try to understand and remember how many millions died in WW2 in the hands of the Nazis, we are trying to stop it this time before it gets to that".
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 18 2022 19:08 utc | 87

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 20:59 utc | 119

Peter AU1, I think Tbx is a sly little weasel. The Russian people are spending billions on weapons and have sacrificed thousands of its young men to liberate the Russian speaking people from the Ukraine Nazis, and Tbx wants to attack Putin and Lavrov because they don't speak to the Zelensky's victims often enough or clearly enough.

I call that BS: Every Ukrainian in the world knows where the lines are drawn and how this conflict came to fruition, regardless of their mother tongue. For eight years Ukraine Nazis have been pounding away at the people living in the Eastern Ukraine regions killing an estimated 14,000 people, if a moment of clarity has not come to all Ukrainians by now, nothing President Putin can say now will change that.

Pro-Russian Ukrainians living in the west had eight years to leave the Nazi infested West, and millions did. Many of the men joined forces with the resistance movements in the Donbass while their families crossed the border into Russia, or Belarus. Yes, everyone knows why the lights are out in Kiev, and everyone knows it is not about Putin or Lavrov. It is about the fucking US and NATO. Perhaps Tbx should spend more time attacking Biden and stop worrying if Putin has explained himself properly to Ukrainians. and the entire world; they know.

But what does Tbx know about the people of Ukraine anyway? Is he Ukrainian, if so East or West?

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 18 2022 23:11 utc | 160

Peter AU1 @ 129 / Mummer @ 131

"" MacGregor is sharp, but maybe youtube overexposure like with Ritter is making him talk for talking's sake. ""

I think MacGregor is reading the popular opinion in Germany. ... And in that sense he would be correct that Germany is ready for a different geo-economic alignment.

However, we all know the reality of how the EU and German officials act. ... FM Bobert summed it up a few months ago, "I don't care what the German people want." ... Popular opinion or democratic governance doesn't mean jack-squat.

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 18 2022 23:17 utc | 161

Wake up Europe, Lynch your compradors and quislings. Take back your power.

Posted by: Robert Hunter | Nov 18 2022 23:17 utc | 162

Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:40 utc | 148

Name usurper, not me

@ Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:48 utc | 153

One has the 'non-dubious' honor of joining the club. The reprehensible hijacked nic post at 'Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:48 utc | 153' ...

Is not moi, & will not have the masked, b only accessible, unique email addy, c'est la vie :(

A round on me at the bar for my fellow victims of nic hijacking. Should we start an informal Honor Roll ? ;)

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 18 2022 23:18 utc | 163

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 22:42 utc | 151

we'll find out soon enough.. i hope macgregor and you are correct, but i have my doubts... it will look very different in 1 year..

Posted by: james | Nov 18 2022 23:18 utc | 164

Europe plus Russia equals power. Europe minus Russia equals weakness, just what the Empire wants but what do you want? Worsening austerity or increasing wealth. You can choose Russia and China or you can choose the Empire.

Posted by: Robert Hunter | Nov 18 2022 23:21 utc | 165

Germans are eunucs at this point. Please stop spewing nonsense that they will somehow find a backbone. Thats BS. Germany will do as they are told by US. Period.

Posted by: Comandante | Nov 18 2022 23:21 utc | 166

Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 22:42 utc | 151

"" From memory, I think Macgregor was looking at as little as a year from now perhaps a bit longer. ""

I would predict the timing based on the next significant German election. ... We'll see if 'popular opinion' can sack some of the current US cheerleaders. Then we may see the shift.

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 18 2022 23:25 utc | 167

Video posted on Hal Turner show website of UKR soldiers murdering unarmed and surrendered Russian soldiers while they are lying face down on ground. WARNING GRAPHIC...

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-troops-massacre-surrendering-dis-armed-russians-laying-face-down-on-ground

Posted by: Just Observing | Nov 18 2022 23:11 utc | 160

This film is the most important video since WikiLeaks released a video of one of two Apache helicopters hunting for insurgents on 12 July 2007. Among the dead were a 22-year-old Reuters photographer, Namir Noor-Eldeen, and his driver, Saeed Chmagh, 40. The Pentagon blocked an attempt by Reuters to obtain the video through a freedom of information request. Wikileaks director Julian Assange said his organization had to break through encryption by the military to view it. Assange is still waiting for extradition to the US for exposing this horrible war crime.

This new video must be circulated around the world.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 18 2022 23:35 utc | 168

Tom_12 | Nov 18 2022 23:05 utc | 159

I was going back over some older threads and run onto one of your comments addressed to me I hadn't seen at the time. You linked the twitter video of the Ukraine woman with herpes cutting the throat of a Russian man with a sickle.

This is a good link https://forward.com/news/462916/nazi-collaborator-monuments-in-ukraine/?amp=1
It has a photo and historical circumstance of all the Nazi monuments that have been put up in Ukraine since 2014.

Reading through drives home the fact that current Ukraine is virtually a carbon copy of Nazi Germany.

It also takes Israeli hypocrisy into the stratosphere. Amongst the many peoples killed by this collaboration of Nazi Germany and OUN were 1.5 million Jews. Roughly a quarter of all Jews killed in WWII were killed in Ukraine. Now Israel sends aid to Nazi Ukraine so they can kill Russians.
The links a keeper good to send to brainwashed family and friends or whoever.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 23:35 utc | 169

Hermit @ 156

Thanks. Russia probably plans on replacing the LPTs once they are in situ. I would not expect any HEMP attacks, be they E1, E2 or EI, EI O. The 345kV in the U.S. stockpile can easily be replaced with 500kV over time, but not the 765kV units as they lack the bfc kilowatt dampeners necessary for prolonged usage. Even if their gmts were to be reduced by 40 gts on the average it would take an additional 240k pdms to make transport feasible on the atc. This assumes of course the fsc is pdq and not merely a pdf. And don’t even get me started on the kms or the efg, given the transport situation in the PRC and the FGR.

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 18 2022 23:36 utc | 170

@143

The claim that 100 medium sized ñuclear weapons would eliminate humanity is demonstrably false. The period up to the testament treaty saw far more than that detonated in the atmosphere and we are still here. A medium sized nuclearweapon by current standards is in the 100 to 200 kiloton range. Times 100 makes 10 to 20 MT. The largest single US and soviet H bomb tests detonated this much or more without evident climatic effects.
The Soviet 56MT test was detonated over peat tundra and vaporised and lifted into the stratosphere many sq km of peat stripping the terrain to bedrock. That produced no noticzbleclimate effect, unlike large volcanic explosions which certainly do cool the climate.

Posted by: Paul Cockshott | Nov 18 2022 23:40 utc | 171

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 23:35 utc | 171

Also have a look at this: [DECLASSIFIED] - CIA INVOLVEMENT IN UKRAINIAN NATIONALISM

For more than half a century the US is meddling with Nazis there.

Posted by: Zet | Nov 18 2022 23:43 utc | 172

"" Europe plus Russia equals power. Europe minus Russia equals weakness, just what the Empire wants but what do you want? Worsening austerity or increasing wealth. You can choose Russia and China or you can choose the Empire. ""

Interesting ... From a Eurasian point-of-view, Europe is seen as merely the 'Western Peninsula' to the continental mass. ... It is viewed as one entity with the east. ... This is why China's BRI is so appealing and strong.

So, while Washington may have short to mid term leverage over the Europeans during this conflict, the ultimate gravity of the Eurasian geo-politic will eventually pull them into its fold. ... The world is much more connected and will continue to become closer and closer. ... BRI, BRICS+, etc. will eventually dwarf WEF, G7, World Bank, and IMF. ... At that time, Washington will no longer have that leverage.

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 18 2022 23:47 utc | 173

Mummer | Nov 18 2022 23:17 utc | 163

Escobar earlier on always though Germany would swing into the Russia China axis. Germany and Russia are natural trade partners and throughout history, in time of peace, both have prospered from that trade.

What we are in now is I believe WWII in hybrid form. The shuffling of the deck however will be no different to the aftermath of WWI and WWII. Changing of an era. From what I have read, German industry has always been a powerful force in German politics, not as in US corruption but rather ... Germany is and for a long time has been renowned for its high quality industry. It is thye lifeblood of Germany. Escobar did an article recently on Schltz visit to Beijing with a group of industrialists. US is now trying to separate Europe from China and Germany are not having it.
What Macgregor said about his discussions with the similar high ranking German offices makes me think Germany may well break out from the anglo yoke. Scholtz and his woke offsiders though, might first have to be turfed out to relink with Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 23:51 utc | 174

@ Outraged | Nov 18 2022 22:40 utc | 148

Apologies.

Correction: Should be 'Hermit provided extensive references, ...'.

Apologies to Hermit ... never legally representative oneself ... live with the consequences of not having a proof-reader'. :(

@ james | Nov 18 2022 21:58 utc | 135

Concur. Noted other observant posters making similar observations re the mentioned, in a closed internal mini-forum of their own design.. Not the DB I recall of more than a decade+. You don't normally do numerous posts of this kind ... The Thing (1982), how ironic re our current situ.

JeanAU | Nov 18 2022 22:43 utc | 152

Is fake nic. calling out a real post & poster.

@ Paul Cockshott | Nov 18 2022 23:40 utc | 173

More mere assertion, where are your corroborated credible refs.

Speaking of Primary refs, sources, acknowledgments, including peer reviews see:

Nowhere to hide - How a nuclear war would kill you — and almost everyone else.
- Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Given my own personal knowledge, TOPP-3 & NBC training/instruction, let alone the die or die immediate decision required re personal atropine injection ... one cannot fathom the mindset of those who falsely claim Nuclear war can ever be a viable option. Depressing.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 19 2022 0:04 utc | 175

re: : Paul Cockshott | Nov 18 2022 23:40 utc | 173
you wrote: "The claim that 100 medium sized ñuclear weapons would eliminate humanity is demonstrably false."

Who makes that claim?

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 0:10 utc | 176

Zet | Nov 18 2022 23:43 utc | 174

Have saved the link, thanks, plus the link posted by Just Observing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 19 2022 0:10 utc | 177

@Paul Cockshott | Nov 18 2022 23:40 utc | 173

I dont disagree but I like to point out that when those bombs would cause fires in densely populated areas rather than being tested/demonstrated the smoke would reach the stratosphere and partly stay there for years. Just like fpr volcano eruptions. The lognormal distribution for the particles may have a peak below radius 1 micron and a significant proportion of down to 100nm. And they have very long falltimes
The simulations they have done assume perhaps 4000 + 4000 nukes and that leads to significant blocking of sunlight.
I think it is pertinent to work out means to cleanse the stratosphere from aerosoles just in case so no time is lost when it happens. They have studied and modeled it but I am not aware of what kind of geoengineering they may have worked out. Airplanes have a limited vertical range so maybe they have to use rockets and spray water at sufficiently high altitudes.
NASA has created artificial clouds at H=85 kilometers.
But I dont know if they last long enough to act as precipitation for bringing along the aerosoles
I think the boiling point of water is reached already above 50km
Or maybe they could find some way to use electrical methods for collecting particles. If so they might coagulate the particles to bigger size and then just drop them thus there wouldnt be any need for extra lift.
Some kind of baloon/airship might work

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Nov 19 2022 0:13 utc | 178

Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 23:51 utc | 176

Yes it is clear. Now that the Germans have withdrawn from NATO and have expelled the Americans from their military bases it is merely a matter of time before their industry recovers. For now it is enough that Russia has renewed gas flows to Germany through the Nordstream 3 pipeline that Scholtz kept secret from the world. Bayer has announced an expansion of operations this winter and Volkswagen is building more automobiles. There is even talk in the UK of bringing Liz Truss back to Downing Street so that she and Scholtz can plot the Anglo-German conquest of the EU with a new capital at Leichtenstein.

Posted by: Elle | Nov 19 2022 0:25 utc | 179

Climate change and destroying the world with nuclear weapons are both ENTIRELY based on mathematical models which no one has ever proven to be true and it's unlikely any of them will ever be proven to be true.

So-called "mathematical models" by the Club of Rome in the 1970's supposedly proved all sorts of dire events by the year 2000. Total bullshit.

Mathematical models are only as good as the assumptions fed into them. The Club of Rome models were savaged by experts in computer modeling in journals devoted to that topic.

Bottom line: Absolutely no one knows what will happen in a nuclear war because no one really knows how that war will be fought, with how many weapons actually expended, what targets will actually be hit, etc., let alone the resulting effects in total. Sources like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have an agenda - to get rid of nukes. That automatically makes their studies biased and unreliable.

Do a Google search on "nuclear winter debunked" - plenty of articles arguing the point, which means it is not a confirmed theory. Do the same on "Club of Rome" debunked which looks back at that subject.

Again bottom line: No one knows until it happens and that applies to climate change and nuclear war effects. Don't trust anyone who says different, they have an agenda.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 19 2022 0:28 utc | 180

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Nov 19 2022 0:13 utc | 180
"The simulations they have done assume perhaps 4000 + 4000 nukes and that leads to significant blocking of sunlight."

I don't know if what you say is true, but if it is, those simulations are idiotic as there is zero chance Russia and the US would expend that many nukes in a nuclear war - not even close. The number of nukes ready for launch is in the hundreds, not thousands, and the remaining nukes would be destroyed by the first wave with the sole exception of a few nuclear subs which would only add a few dozen more nukes to the total.

This is one reason I view these studies as complete bullshit: as I said, stupid assumptions by people who have zero knowledge of actual war.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 19 2022 0:32 utc | 181

Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 23:51 utc | 176

"" What we are in now is I believe WWII in hybrid form. ""

This is a good point. ... From my perspective, the US & Western Allies did not win WW2. ... Yes, they did defeat the German and Japanese people and their militaries, but they never defeated the NAZIs. ... In fact, they tried to secretly ally with them against the Soviets at Pottsdam, then they permitted many to escape to South America via the rat line, then they created America's NAZI organization (the CIA) who immediately infiltrated America with Operation Paperclip. ... Finally they used NAZI organizations in Eastern Europe to become a battering ram against Russia. ... Eight decades later, the West's international NAZISM is on full display for all to see.

So one thing becomes clear with this current Ukraine SMO. ... That is, that this war is a continuation of WW2. ... Russia today is actually completing its WW2 operation to once and for all defeat NAZISM. ... The only difference from 1945 is that the NAZI sphere has grown to include all of Western Europe and the US and Canada.

Over the years, Western NAZISM's effects on their society has driven those nations completely insane. ... So therefore, they will be defeated and eventually collapse.

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 19 2022 0:38 utc | 182

re: petergrfstrm | Nov 19 2022 0:13 utc | 180

I think you are referring to the peer-reviewed studies by Toon, Robock, et al. I have links to these studies at the beginning of an article I wrote for the Federation of American Scientists, Turning a Blind Eye Towards Armageddon: US Leaders Reject Nuclear Winter Studies You have a few things not quite right.

First, the small and very uniform particles of black carbon soot remains in the stratosphere much longer than do the various sized particles of volcanic ash. This is because the black soot/smoke tends to be heated much much more by sunlight than does the grey ash. This creates a self-lofting effect, which is why much of the soot/smoke from nuclear firestorms will rise into the stratosphere, above cloud level, where it cannot be rained out.

See the studies by Mills et al, such as Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss
following a regional nuclear conflict
and also this interesting lecture by Mills Michael Mills: Volcanic eruptions, global climate, and ozone loss

The full scale nuclear war scenario predicts 150 million tons of soot would make it into the stratosphere and block 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of Earth in the Northern Hemisphere and 35% in the Southern hemisphere. This would cause daily temperatures in central North America and Eurasia to fall below freezing every day for up to three years. Ice Age weather conditions would persist and prevent crops from being grown for up to 10 years. Most people and land animals would starve, but probably some could survive near the equatorial regions. This would constitute a Mass Extinction event comparable to the one that killed the dinosaurs.

I know Alan Robock has written an article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on geoengineering. I think he would recommend the best idea is to not put million tons of soot in the stratosphere in the first place.

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 0:38 utc | 183

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 23:35 utc | 171

Yes vividly recall the full length clip, with translation, also recognized both as serial Propaganda crisis actors Of Ukraine Psyops/'Wag the Dog' Presidential productions LLC.

@ petergrfstrm | Nov 19 2022 0:13 utc | 180

Respectfully, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Simply yet more mere assertion combined with gobbledygook(?). Primary source refs, please, pretty please ?

@ Just Observing | Nov 18 2022 23:11 utc | 160

That is cleary real footage, not staged, inclusive of the drone footage surveilling the aftermath.

Not the first documented, won't be the last. At least it was quick. The Nazis like to torture & prolong the agony before exiting this existence. Scum.

Unequivocal war crime, against the Laws of War & International Law & treaties re the relevant Geneva conventions. Ukraine is signatory & has ratified all relevant treaties & conventions, with irony the exception of the ICC.

See Database ref ICRC (PDF)

Hard rain is gonna fall ...

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 19 2022 0:42 utc | 184

Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 0:38 utc | 185

Its all academic. There isn't going to be a nuclear war and if there is we won't be around to complain. Finnish your soup.

Posted by: Cats n Jammer | Nov 19 2022 0:46 utc | 185

re: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 19 2022 0:32 utc | 183
you wrote:
"I don't know if what you say is true, but if it is, those simulations are idiotic as there is zero chance Russia and the US would expend that many nukes in a nuclear war - not even close. The number of nukes ready for launch is in the hundreds, not thousands, and the remaining nukes would be destroyed by the first wave with the sole exception of a few nuclear subs which would only add a few dozen more nukes to the total."

I disagree. The US and Russia each have 800 to 1000 strategic nuclear warheads at launch-ready status, requiring a few minutes for their land-based ICBMs to be launched and about 15 minutes for their submarine launched ballistic missiles to be launched after the permission order is given. Both nations have close to 2000 deployed and operational (mostlyl strategic) nuclear weapons. Both nations have launchj-on-warning capability, and Russia has the Perimetr "Dead Hand" semi-automated launch system, that will fire if the national command authority has been decapitated in a first strike.

https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 0:48 utc | 186

re: Cats n Jammer | Nov 19 2022 0:46 utc | 187

i prefer to try to prevent a nuclear war. There are so many beautiful life forms on this planet, many of which have been around a lot longer than us, who could care less about ignorant human squabbles. It won't just be human civilization wiped out by a nuclear war.

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 0:51 utc | 187

Posted by: ChasMark | Nov 18 2022 19:56 utc | 101

Big question in my mind is whether Putin is active participant in the agenda, or dupe.

Only in the sense that a rapee is an active participant in his/her own rape (by existing) - "Hey, she asked for it!" ... Though in this case the rapist (the West) is getting the worst of it.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 19 2022 0:52 utc | 188

Peter AU1 | Nov 18 2022 23:51 utc | 176

"" German industry has always been a powerful force in German politics, not as in US corruption but rather ... Germany is and for a long time has been renowned for its high quality industry. ""

This is true. ... I lived in Germany (near the industrial Ruhr Valley) and it was the heartbeat of the nation.

The Germans took great pride in their innovations, efficiency, and manufacturing capability. ... It was all about 'precision'. Hence, they were a very serious competitor to the world (and still can be).

Germans people are also great farmers. ... Wherever they migrate to, they seem to uplift the country's agriculture. ... Examples in America are the Amish and the entire Mid-West farming belt from Ohio to the Rockies. One German ancestry town after another. ... They have fed a fair portion of the world for decades.

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 19 2022 0:53 utc | 189

Human civilization won't be wiped out by a nuclear war. Just sayin'.

Posted by: Ligma Johnson | Nov 19 2022 1:04 utc | 190

Sources like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have an agenda - to get rid of nukes. That automatically makes their studies biased and unreliable.

Yet Empire and its agents & representatives do not have an agenda re faux debunking & disinformation ? Extraordinary. You assert we cannot know until we are extinct, so just let it be ? Move along now, move along ? Laughable.

The number of nukes ready for launch is in the hundreds, not thousands, and the remaining nukes would be destroyed by the first wave with the sole exception of a few nuclear subs which would only add a few dozen more nukes to the total.

Refutation based on mere fatuous opinion re indisputable absolute FACT. :(

I view these studies as complete bullshit: as I said, stupid assumptions by people who have zero knowledge of actual war.

@ Richard Steven Hack | Nov 19 2022 0:28 utc | 182
@ Richard Steven Hack | Nov 19 2022 0:32 utc | 183

Again, No refs, No sources, merely yet more mere extraordinary assertion, this time with attitude and remarkable unsupportable broad brush claims.

Am I to understand, your case is solely, Ipso facto, on the basis that bullshit can recognize bullshit ?

Empire always hates this topic being raised let alone discussed.

Yawn.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 19 2022 1:09 utc | 191

The EU was duped. There is no pot of gold at the eastern end of the UKUSA rainbow. It is a pot of iron crosses and swastikas.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 19 2022 1:16 utc | 192

Human civilization will be wiped out by nuclear war, but it likely won't be an extinction event. A small percentage of people in the Southern Hemisphere will survive and a handful in the Northern Hemisphere.

Posted by: Haassaan | Nov 19 2022 1:17 utc | 193

Hack wins this argument. But then you already know that, don't you?

Posted by: DakotabornKansan | Nov 19 2022 1:18 utc | 194

re: Ligma Johnson | Nov 19 2022 1:04 utc | 192

you wrote:
"Human civilization won't be wiped out by a nuclear war. Just sayin'"

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan fought with 100-200 nuclear weapons (mostly atomic bombs) won't wipe out civilization, but a full-scale nuclear war between the US and Russia/China, fought with thousands of nuclear detonations, that is a different story.

The US has about 340 cites with populations greater than 100,000; Russia has about 230 cities with populations above 100,000. Every large city in both nations could easily be nuked with current arsenals; Russia has 5997 nuclear weapons in their arsenal, the US has 5428 nuclear weapons, China 350, France 290, UK 225, Pakistan 165, India 160, Israel at leat 90 (I think more than that), and North Korea 20, see https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

There are 12,705 nuclear weapons in the global nuclear arsenal . . . if the majority of them are detonated in conflict, there won't be much civilization left anywhere, and the long-term environmental consequences of the war will wipe out most of the survivors.
,

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 1:18 utc | 195

re: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 19 2022 0:28 utc | 182
you wrote:
"Sources like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have an agenda - to get rid of nukes. That automatically makes their studies biased and unreliable."

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is an online publication, it doesn't do any studies; the peer-reviewed studies on the long-term environmental consequences of nuclear war were mostly done at Rutgers, Univ of Colorado, Boulder, and UCLA. The BAS may occasionally publish a review of these studies, or some commentary, along with a lot of other information on nuclear weapons issues.

I think the BAS wants to prevent nuclear war, but as far as I know, they haven't endorsed the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (Ban Treaty). Lots of different views on how to prevent nuclear war; the BAS sometimes publishes articles that seem to support nuclear deterrence, too. Do you ever look at their publications?

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 1:28 utc | 196

“Most of the southern hemisphere for starters. You know, the Global South?”

Most of the Global South is in the northern hemisphere. Consult a map.

Posted by: G77 | Nov 19 2022 1:53 utc | 197

Posted by: Steven Starr | Nov 19 2022 1:18 utc | 197

You are obviously a very learned man with a profound understanding of the effects of nuclear weapons. How long will it take for Hiroshima and Nagasaki will be fully repopulated? And how many thousands of years will it take for fauna and flora to return to the Chernobyl zone? Thank you for taking the time to answer these profound questions.

Posted by: Greta | Nov 19 2022 2:09 utc | 198

Returning to the primary topic of this thread ...

Intel Slava Z

🇷🇺🇺🇦 While withdrawing from the right bank of Kherson, the RF Armed Forces destroyed a large energy infrastructure facility that fed part of the right bank and the Nikolaev region.

According to the head of Ukrenergo, the damage is serious: “The power facility, which provided power supply to the entire right bank of the Kherson region and a significant part of the Mykolaiv region, was practically destroyed. It no longer exists. Two autotransformers, each weighing 250 tons, were blown up. The relay protection hall, compressor, battery were additionally shot and crushed"

(Now the far bank and region, former RF bridgehead, now under control of UAF.)

Note: If you are able follow the link in an ordinary browser (no pre-quisites) you will see images of the scale & scope of destruction.

This is merely one such, and no even part of the waves of missile/drone strikes across Ukraine.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 19 2022 2:17 utc | 199

G77 @ 199

I have consulted a map and you are correct. Brazil, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, Congo, Madagascar, Malasya, Indonesia, Australia and New Zeeland are all in the Northern Hemisphere. So clearly all their nuclear arsenals will be the first to go. When does the nuclear war start?

Posted by: G88 | Nov 19 2022 2:21 utc | 200

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